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Sonny and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season [2018 Season Review]

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This jersey might just be the high point of Gray’s season. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Way back in March, I had the privilege of writing the season preview for Sonny Gray. I did so with not so well-hidden glee, as I was all but certain that he would end up being a tremendous third starter for the Yankees. Take a look:

I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.

There was more than a bit of skepticism towards that stance, and the early returns this season made supporting Gray seem a fool’s errand. But, as Kurt Vonnegut wrote in The Sirens of Titan, “anybody who has traveled this far on a fool’s errand has no choice but to uphold the honor of fools by completing the errand.” And so I held out hope as bad starts mounted and trade winds swirled, appearing more and more foolish by the week.

But I digress. Let’s go back to the beginning.

The First Start

Gray exited his first start with some superficially tremendous numbers – notably a 2.25 ERA and 18.0 K/9. However, as was the case in his three months with the Yankees in 2018, his underlying numbers weren’t so hot. Gray only completed four innings due to an excessive pitch count (89), and he allowed seven hits and three walks along the way. He was pulled by Aaron Boone with one on and none out in the bottom of the fifth (an understandable and smart hook for the rookie manager), and was bailed out by Chad Green.

It’s difficult to take a great deal away from one start, but the walks and pitch count were endemic of the issues that made fans leery when he first donned pinstripes. And, as a fun bit of foreshadowing, here is where I’ll note that he threw just 6.74% four-seamers in that start – the lowest figure of his career.

The Frustration Sets In

In lieu of offering a start-by-start breakdown, I think that a simple list is all that you need to see in order to understand just how up-and-down Gray was this year. I won’t overload it with information, either – it’ll just be two numbers: innings pitched and runs allowed.

  • April 7 – 6.0 IP, 3 R
  • April 12 – 3.0 IP, 6 R
  • April 20 – 3.1 IP, 5 R
  • April 25 – 4.2 IP, 3 R
  • April 30 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
  • May 5 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
  • May 11 – 5.0 IP, 5 R
  • May 20 – 8.0 IP, 1 R
  • May 26 – 3.2 IP, 5 R
  • June 1 – 6.0 IP, 1 R
  • June 6 – 8.0 IP, 0 R
  • June 13 – 5.0 IP, 4 R
  • June 18 – 5.0 IP, 2 R
  • June 23 – 6.2 IP, 4 R
  • June 30 – 2.1 IP, 6 R
  • July 6 – 2.0 IP, 5 R
  • July 11 – 6.0 IP, 0 R
  • July 21 – 5.1 IP, 3 R
  • July 26 – 5.0 IP, 0 R
  • August 1 – 2.2 IP, 7 R

On August 2, it was announced that Gray would be moving to the bullpen in deference to the newly-acquired Lance Lynn, so this isn’t an arbitrary endpoint. This list simply ends when the Yankees grew tired of Gray’s inconsistency (and, in more plain terms, his 5.56 ERA through 21 starts).

In this stretch, Gray allowed 4+ runs nine times, and failed to finish the fifth inning seven times, which means he was putting pressure on the bullpen on both fronts. And every time he showed flashes of his old self (such as his outings on June 1 and June 6), he came crashing back to earth shortly thereafter.

Watching his first 21 starts felt almost sadistic, as he appeared out of sorts at all times. He couldn’t find the strike zone with any semblance of regularity, and when he did it always seemed to be thrown right down the middle. That has a degree of hyperbole to it, to be sure – but his 9.9% walk rate and 14.1% HR/FB suggest that it rings at least a bit true. The fact that he averaged 85 pitches per start despite average fewer than 5 IP speaks to that, as well.

A Reasonably Productive Closing Stretch

Gray made his first relief appearance in extra innings against the White Sox on August 7 – and it was a good one. He tossed three scoreless innings and allowed just two base-runners, while striking out four, and picked up the win.

He served as a swingman/long-man/long reliever from that point forward, and was more good than bad. Sure, he had two rough outings (including allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an inning on August 12), but he finished out the season with a 2.35 ERA in his final nine appearances (26.2 IP). That included two spot-starts, which are a perfect exemplification of his season – 6.1 scoreless innings against the Orioles on August 25, and seven base-runners and three runs in three innings against the Twins on September 11.

Gray finished the season with a 4.90 ERA (89 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP in 130.1 IP. It wasn’t his worst season – that distinction belongs to his injury-riddled 2016 – but his 9.8% walk rate was the worst of his career, as was his 50.0% groundball rate.

What Went Wrong?

Yankee Stadium, for one. Take a look:

  • Home – 59.1 IP, 78 H, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 5.98 FIP
  • Road – 71.0 IP, 60 H, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Gray was all but unplayable in the Bronx, but he was a borderline ace on the road. There’s some noise in smaller sample sizes of this nature, of course – but this is basically just a more extreme version of how he performed with the Yankees in 2017. Interestingly enough, Gray’s two best and two worst starts came at home; make of that what you will.

And, as I mentioned earlier, Gray’s four-seam usage went way down with the anti-fastball Yankees:

That trend started last year once he was acquired, and it continued this year. Gray threw just over 25% four-seamers this year, after being over 30% in each of his previous five seasons. That difference was made up for with his curveball usage, and that pitch was mediocre at-best; his slider, which is usually his best pitch, didn’t see that sort of uptick. It was a forced evolution, of sorts, and it was not effective.

What’s Next?

Gray has one year of arbitration eligibility left, and MLBTR projects a $9.1 MM salary. That is almost certainly moot, though, as Brian Cashman has indicated that Gray will be traded this off-season. So the only real question is who the Yankees can get in return.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So long, Sonny.

The Free Agent Semi-Flop [2018 Season Review]

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

On July 31, 2017, the Yankees and Mets allegedly had a deal in-place for Neil Walker, but the Yankees backed out due to some disconcerting medicals. On December 13, 2017, I wrote about Walker as a potential target to fill either of the big club’s holes at second and third. A couple of months later, on February 27, 2018, it was reported that the Yankees were in talks with Walker prior to acquiring Brandon Drury. And just two weeks later, Walker was in pinstripes – and we were excited about it.

It’s not hard to see why Walker had been on the radar for such a long time, either. He’s a switch-hitting middle infielder with the better part of a decade’s worth of success, with (generally) above-average walk and strikeout rates, and a good amount of pop. Walker slashed .265/.362/.439 in 2017, which was right in-line with his career norm of .272/.341/.437, and had shown no real signs of slowing down.

And so, at the cost of around $4 MM for the 2018 season, it was a low-risk, high-reward proposition. It didn’t quite play out that way, though.

The Late Signing and Early Struggles

The Yankees officially signed Walker on March 12, over three weeks after position players reported to Spring Training, and more than half of the exhibition games already wrapped-up. He opened the season at a deficit that cannot really be accounted for, as it seems improbable that any amount of training can make up for missing that amount of work with the team. And it showed early on, as Walker limped out to a .165/.212/.190 slash line (3 wRC+) in 85 March/April plate appearances.

Now, to be completely fair, it was difficult to be too concerned about that level of production. After all, this was effectively his Spring Training, and it was also the first time in his career that he wasn’t the straight-up starter – he played in just 20 of the Yankees 28 games in this span, and started at two different positions (first and second) to boot. That sort of inconsistent usage pattern was not something that Walker was accustomed to, and it makes sense that combining that with a lack of Spring Training could lead to struggles. I’m sure that everyone’s noticing a theme here, and some might even call it a desperate search for an excuse for poor performance – but it’s difficult to not give some credence to such a drastic change for any player.

Signs of Life in May

Walker’s inconsistent playing time continued in May (he started just 13 of 25 team games), but his bat awakened in a big way. He slashed .294/.400/.490 (146 wRC+) in 60 PA, with nearly as many walks (8) as strikeouts (9). And, in his first big moment with the team, walked it off against the A’s on May 12:

It took a month of poor performance to get here, but it looked like the Walker that the Yankees thought they were getting had finally come forth. And the timing worked out well, too, as the Yankees had been struggling to get anything out of first base with Greg Bird on the shelf. His fate was a bit up in the air, though, with Gleyber Torres entrenched at second, Miguel Andujar at third, and Bird set to return at the end of May – but it was a good problem to have. Right?

An Embarrassing June

.063/.143/.063

That’s what Walker hit in June. It was only 35 plate appearances staggered around twelve games (only nine of which were starts) – but he was awful. He struck out in over a third of his PA, and put the ball on the ground 55% of the time. That’s not a good formula for success for any player, and it certainly wasn’t for Walker.

The question at this point became just how much of the blame for his performance could continue to be placed on Spring Training and/or the inconsistent playing time. Neither should be discounted, in my mind, but it’s tough to explain away a .185/.261/.259 slash line through three months (in only 180 PA); and that’s especially true when a player looks as bad as Walker did at times.

And, while he hadn’t shown signs of regression previously, he was still a 32-year-old player that had missed time with injuries in 2016 and 2017. Things change fast in baseball, so maybe this was the beginning of the end.

A Summer Turnaround

Just when we thought that Walker was toast, he started hitting again. He hit .345/.429/.466 in 70 July plate appearances, reaching base safely in 17 of his 18 starts. A .432 BABIP helped matters, but it wasn’t entirely fluky. Walker had a 44.4 hard-hit percentage in July, as well as a ridiculous 43.2% line drive rate. He looked just about as good in July as he did and June, and it was a welcome sight.

And then, for the first time this season, he didn’t completely reverse course the next month. Walker slashed .214/.309/.440 in August, which is a perfectly average 100 wRC+. It was a step down from July, to be sure – but it was progress. Walker hit 6 home runs in just 97 PA, including this epic pinch-hit, walk-off dinger against the White Sox:

Now is as good a time as any to point out Walker’s penchant for the dramatic this year. He hit .323/.385/.581 (144 wRC+) in high leverage situations, and .273/.385/.636 (172 wRC+) in 13 pinch hitting opportunities. And that’s why he finished fourth on the team in WPA despite placing 14th in wRC+.

Walker closed out the season by hitting .186/.314/.395 in September. That may not look good, but it was still a 95 wRC+, which isn’t all that bad.

All told, Walker hit .219/.309/.354 (81 wRC+) in 398 PA, in what amounted to his worst season across the board.

The Playoffs

Walker was basically a bystander in the playoffs. He amassed just 5 PA between the Wild Card game and the ALDS, going 1-for-4 with an RBI and a HBP. His only start came in Game 4 of the division series, where he was a part of the team’s failed rally in the ninth inning. So it goes.

What’s Next?

Prior to the Didi Gregorius news, I was certain that Walker was finished with the Yankees; or, maybe more accurately, the Yankees were finished with him. However, a return engagement seems possible given that the team’s middle infield depth took a staggering blow, and they’re at least familiar with Walker’s personality, routine, and general fit with the team. Whether he would accept another bench/utility role is up in the air, though.

Generally speaking, a 33-year-old with Walker’s track record would be looking to cash in on his last big(ish) contract. It’s difficult to see that happening now, though, given that he’s coming off of the worst year of his career. A one-year pillow contract seems the likeliest outcome, and I suspect that he’ll look for (and land) a starting gig somewhere.

The Waiver Savior [2018 Season Review]

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(Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees spent the majority of the second-half without Aaron Judge’s potent bat in the lineup, or his steady glove in the outfield, and they undoubtedly suffered for it. And it isn’t just because of his brilliance, either – they simply weren’t equipped to handle a prolonged absence in the outfield due to injuries and trades that left them more than a bit shorthanded. Journeyman Quadruple-A outfielder Shane Robinson and not-even-an-outfielder Neil Walker manned right-field for the month of August, and it wasn’t pretty. The team’s biggest position of strength had become a weakness and Judge’s return was continuously pushed back, and the team was giving away outs with the bat and in the field as a result.

That is, until Andrew McCutchen arrived.

The Trade

In the hours leading up to the waiver trade deadline on August 31, the Yankees sent RHP Juan De Paula and utilityman Abiatal Avelino to the Giants for McCutchen. Mike Axisa didn’t have either prospect among the Yankees top-30, so it seemed like a reasonable price to pay for a month (and postseason) of a still-productive outfielder. Sure, there were questions about his fit once Judge returned – but, given the nagging injury to Giancarlo Stanton, the lack of production from Brett Gardner, and the question marks around Judge’s return, that seemed rather inconsequential.

McCutchen was hitting .255/.357/.415 (115 wRC+) with the Giants prior to the deal, with an excellent 12.9% walk rate and average-ish defense in right-field; that latter part is worth noting, as he had only played 115.1 innings in right before moving there full-time this year. His offense was a far cry from his brilliant peak of 2012 through 2015, but it was in-line with his still solid 2016 and 2017 seasons – and maintaining that would be more than enough to justify the move.

Thankfully, McCutchen would be much better than that.

An Impressive September

McCutchen made his Yankees debut on September 1, and he didn’t look great in going 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts and a HBP. He went 0-for-4 with another HBP the next night, and scored his first run with the team. His first hit came the following evening, when he went 1-for-4. It was a bit disappointing to see McCutchen hit .091/.231/.091 in his first three games in the Bronx, but it was understandable that there would be an adjustment period.

And those three games represented the entirety of said adjustment period.

McCutchen went on to slash .276/.446/.526 (167 wRC+) the rest of the way, with 5 HR and more walks (22) than strikeouts (20) in 101 PA. He reached base safely in each of his last fourteen games, and proved to be the steadying presence atop the lineup that the Yankees needed. He also switched to left once Judge returned, and proved capable defensively in both corners. And, for what it’s worth, he added a bit more swag to an already swaggy team:


The key to McCutchen’s success was his seemingly supernatural plate discipline. He was always a patient hitter, but he stepped it up significantly with the Yankees. Take a look:

(FanGraphs)

McCutchen ranked 6th in O-Swing%, 16th in Z-Swing%, and 9th in overall Swing% in September, all of which are elite placements. Moreover, the league-averages in those rates are 30.9%, 67.3%, and 46.6%, respectively, which shows you just how disciplined he was down the stretch. And, while some may be inclined to call him ‘passive’ instead of ‘patient,’ it’s worth nothing that his 149 wRC+ in the month as a whole was 22nd in baseball, so he did plenty of damage with the bat on the whole.

A Disappointing Postseason

McCutchen was straight-up bad in the playoffs, going a combined 2-for-18 with one walk in 19 PA between the Wild Card game and the ALDS. Aaron Boone had him on the bench for the fourth (and final) game of the ALDS, only bringing him in to pinch-hit against Chris Sale in the eighth … and he grounded out to third.

What’s Next?

McCutchen is entering free agency for the first time in his career in what will be his age-32 season. His age probably makes this his last chance to get a long-term contract but, given what we saw last off-season, that’s far from a guarantee. And this is what his last three seasons looked like:

  • 2016 – .256/.336/.430, 105 wRC+
  • 2017 – .279/.363/.486, 123 wRC+
  • 2018 – .255/.368/.424, 120 wRC+

And, once again, he had a 115 wRC+ pre-trade.

There was nothing beyond that uptick in discipline in his underlying numbers to explain his strong performance. McCutchen’s BABIP dropped, he hit fewer line drives and flyballs (which in turn means more grounders), his exit velocity remained roughly the same, and his hard-hit percentage dropped a couple of percentage points. And all of this suggests that his 20.8% HR/FB might just be the flukiest part of his performance – which doesn’t exactly bode well for a team that chooses to bet on his contributions to the Yankees as representative of his current skills. But a corner outfielder with great plate discipline and decent to good power has value.

It’s difficult to see a return engagement with the Yankees, though. McCutchen is almost certainly looking for a longer term deal and a guaranteed starting role, and I don’t see him as the sort of player that Brian Cashman and Co. would give either of those to.

An Abbreviated Encore [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

Aaron Judge was nothing short of a revelation in 2017, emerging as arguably – statistically, at least – the best player in baseball. That’s not hyperbole, either. Judge led the majors in FanGraphs’s WAR, finished second in Baseball-Reference’s WAR, and placed fourth in Baseball Prospectus’s WARP. And all of this came as a rookie playing under the brightest lights in the game, which is a feat in and of itself.

The projection systems justifiably saw a bit of regression. After all, precious few players are as good as Judge was as a rookie, and it’s difficult to project those sorts of talents as a result. Here’s a brief refresher on the more scientific expectations:

  • ZiPS – .253/.364/.552, 43 HR, 14.3 BB%, 32.4 K%, 4.8 WAR
  • Steamer – .253/.368/.517, 37 HR, 14.7 BB%, 30.5 K%, 3.8 WAR
  • PECOTA – .247/.355/.505, 37 HR, 13.6 BB%, 31.0 K%, 4.1 WARP

It’s worth noting that all three projection systems had Judge with at least 610 plate appearances because, well, why wouldn’t they?

How did that work out?

Spoiler Alert: It Wasn’t a Fluke

Aaron Judge went 2-for-4 with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts on Opening Day. He hit his first home run a week later, lunging at an outside pitch and somehow pulling it fairly deep to left center. Take a look:

He’s simply not human.

By the time April came to a close, Judge was batting .317/.453/.584 with 7 HR, 19.5% walks, and 30.5% strikeouts. His walk and strikeout rates were just about where they were in 2018 as a whole (18.7% and 30.7%, respectively) and, while his power was a bit lighter it was still head and shoulders above the vast majority of big leaguers. It was an incredible first month that was somewhat overshadowed by Didi Gregorius’s own epic start, but make no mistake – it did a heck of a lot to show that Judge was unquestionably for real.

And he continued to rake in May. His .263/.386/.579 slash line that month looks less impressive, to be sure – but it was still good for an outstanding 160 wRC+, and he socked another 8 dingers. Interestingly, this wasn’t too far off from the ZiPS projection, albeit still a tick better in terms of walks, strikeouts, and power.

Judge was batting .291/.421/.582 with 15 HR, 17.8% walks, 29.3% strikeouts, and a 170 wRC+ when the calendar flipped to June. That wRC+ was good for fifth in all of baseball, and was right in-line with his 172 wRC+ in 2017. The biggest difference through this point was his power numbers – but some of that can be attributed to the league’s trends as a whole. The league-wide ISO dropped from .171 in 2017 to .161 this year, and the HR/FB dropped from 13.7% to 12.7%. Despite his otherworldly talent with the bat, Judge was not immune to this drop-off … but it didn’t really matter, because his production was roughly the same on the whole.

The June Slump

In 2017, Judge’s subpar August may well have torpedoed his shot at the MVP award. He slashed .185/.353/.326 (90 wRC+) and looked out of sorts at times. We learned later that he was playing through shoulder troubles, but that doesn’t change the fact that he looked utterly helpless at the dish at times. And he slumped again this June.

However, his slump was comparatively not bad at all; in fact, most players would love the sort of slump that Judge experience. He hit .234/.321/.489 (114 wRC+) with 6 home runs, and remained a productive player. His strikeout and walk rates both tipped in the wrong direction, which suggests that he was pressing – but, again, he was still a more than adequate hitter that month. And if that’s his downside, he’s a true mega-star.

The Bounceback

Great hitters don’t stay down for too long, and Judge is no exception. He resumed his raking ways in July, batting .329/.427/.537 (166 wRC+) with another five home runs, and a nice return to form with his walks and strikeouts. He also did this to a Max Scherzer fastball in the All-Star game:

All told, Judge was batting .276/.392/.544 at the break, with 25 HR and a 153 wRC+. He also featured prominently on several MLB leaderboards, checking in at:

  • 3rd in HR
  • 6th in WAR
  • 7th in BB%
  • 9th in wRC+

Again, he wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2017 – but few players are. And he remained among the best in the game through the season’s midway point. What more could we ask for? Unfortunately:

The Assassination of Aaron Judge’s Wrist by the Coward Jakob Junis

Allow me to clarify something first: I don’t blame Junis for what happened. And it’s awful that Yankees fans threatened him on social media (and perhaps even in person) after the fact.

That being said, Junis plunked Judge on the right wrist on July 26, which resulted in the chip fracture that would keep His Honor sidelined for seven weeks (or 45 team games). The Yankees went 25-20 without him, which is a solid 90-win pace – but it clearly wasn’t the same team. And Judge wasn’t the same player when he returned on September 14, either, batting .220/.333/.341 (87 wRC+) through the end of the season. He did play his part in the Yankees tying (and then breaking) the Mariners single-season home run record:

That September swoon dropped Judge’s season totals down to .278/.392/.528 (149 wRC+) with 27 HR in 498 PA. He was still good enough to rank 7th in the majors in wRC+ and 20th in WAR (a counting stat) – but it was nevertheless a disappointing end to the season. Prior to his injury he was on-pace for a .285/.398/.548 (156 wRC+) line to go along with 38 home runs and roughly 7.2 WAR, for whatever it’s worth.

Playoff Judge

Judge caught a bit of flack during the 2017 playoffs for his intermittent struggles, but that was more than a bit unfair. He was ineffective against the Indians in the ALDS (.308 OPS), but he came up big in the Wild Card game and went on to hit .250/.357/.708 against the Astros in the ALCS. I’ll take that without hesitation.

And then Judge took it to another level, slashing .421/.500/.947 with 3 home runs in the Yankees five playoff games this year. He reached base safely in every game, and reached base at least three times in three separate games. And, on the off-chance you’re not noticing a trend here, he hit this massive blast off of David Price in Game 2 of the ALDS:

The Yankees, of course, lost that series – but it was through no real fault of Judge, who once again looked like the franchise player that we saw throughout 2017 and prior to his injury this year.

Miscellaneous Tidbits

This throw:

It’s also worth noting that, even with his post-injury slump, Judge’s ridiculous exit velocity remained on-par with 2017. He had an MLB-best 94.9 MPH average exit velocity in 2017, and an MLB-best 55.0 hard-hit percentage; in 2018 those figures were an MLB-best 94.8 MPH and an MLB-best 53.8%. Nobody hits the ball as hard as Judge – take a look at the Statcast leaderboards if you’re curious. And that’s fantastic.

What’s Next?

Judge is entering his final pre-arbitration year, so the Yankees will be paying one of the best hitters in baseball less than a million bucks in 2019. How’s that for a bargain? He’ll spend most of next year at age-27, so he’s still right in the middle of his prime (if not just entering it), and our expectations should remain the same. It’ll get interesting when he reaches arbitration eligibility this time next season, especially if he maintains this level of excellence – but that’s a future Yankees problem (and a good one at that).

The Incomparable Didi Gregorius [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

In 2016, Didi Gregorius set career-best marks in runs, home runs, RBI, strikeout rate, and wRC+. In 2017, he once again set new high water marks in those metrics, to go along with a career-high 4.0 fWAR. And this time last year we were all wondering what he was capable of for an encore.

As a reminder, here is what the projection systems had to say:

  • Steamer: .269/.314/.436, 20 HR, 5.3% BB, 13.4% K, 566 PA
  • ZiPS: .267/.306/.430, 20 HR, 4.7% BB, 13.5% K, 593 PA
  • PECOTA: .262/.312/.411, 18 HR, 5.8% BB, 14.7% K, 636 PA

All three systems predicted a bit of regression for Gregorius, essentially predicting a return to his (still good) 2016 form. And, while that would have been disappointing, I’m sure that most of us would have accepted a solid defensive shortstop with a league-average bat. That’s not what happened, though.

The Ridiculously Hot Start

Gregorius reached base safely in his first five games, by the end of which he was slashing .444/.524/1.111 with two home runs and nine RBI. He also drew three walks in those five games, which might just be the most impressive aspect of that stretch. Well, that or his 8 RBI game against the Rays on April 3:

He didn’t quite maintain that torrid start, but he finished April hitting .321/.427/.735 (197 wRC+) with 10 HR and more walks (18) than strikeouts (16). And when the calendar flipped to May he was tied for the major league lead in fWAR with Mookie Betts. It was amazing and surreal to watch, and I loved every single second of it.

Unfortunately…

A Ridiculously Awful May

Gregorius was as bad in May as he was good in April; and that might be underselling his badness. His slash line was .149/.184/.213, which is good for a -1 wRC+. He stopped walking and hitting for power, and he looked helpless at the plate more often than not.  Gregorius’ batted ball profile shows a clear change in contact, too:

(FanGraphs)

His line-drive rate tumbled, his groundball spiked, and flyballs stopped leaving the yard. His HR/FB rate can be attributed to a simple yet aggressive bit of bad luck and/or regression to the mean – but the quality of contact was clearly not there. And at the end of May he was hitting .240/.315/.479, which isn’t all that far removed from his 2017 line of .287/.318/.478 (with way more power and walks).

The Return to Form

Gregorius closed out May with a little hot streak, reaching base in four straight games via five singles, a walk, and an HBP. And from June 1 through August 19 he raked once more, batting .292/.347/.485 with 11 HR, 7.3% walks, and 11.4% strikeouts (124 wRC+) in 289 PA. His batted ball profile basically split the difference between April and May, to the tune of 21.3% line drives, 40.9% grounders, 37.8% flyballs, and 12.6% HR/FB. That’s basically his career norms, with the exception of the still-elevated HR/FB rate, so it wasn’t difficult to say that this was probably who Gregorius is at this point.

Why the arbitrary cut-off of August 19, you ask? Well, with the news of his impending Tommy John surgery you may have forgotten that he missed nearly three weeks with a heel injury:

I still don’t know how he bruised his heel there, but I suppose that’s not terribly relevant. And, more importantly, he returned with a vengeance, batting .250/.344/.596 with 5 HR (149 wRC+) from September 7 through the end of the season. It’s worth noting that there was another injury scare mixed-in there, as torn cartilage in his wrist kept him out from for a handful of games in late-September, but he looked fine in what amounted to two tune-up games against the Red Sox to close the regular season.

All told, Gregorius hit .268/.335/.494 (121 wRC+) with 27 HR and 4.6 fWAR. If you’re keeping score at home, he once again set career-bests in runs, home runs, strikeout rate, wRC+, and fWAR, as well walks, OBP, and SLG. By FanGraphs’ reckoning he was the 8th best shortstop in the game, between Trea Turner and Jean Segura. That’s not too shabby.

The Doubly Dreadful Playoffs

Gregorius, like many Yankees, didn’t do so well in the postseason. He hit .234/.222/.294 in 19 PA, and didn’t draw a walk in five games. He was a big part of the failed comeback in the final game of the team’s season, though, hitting a single in the bottom of the 9th to give the team two on and none out. It was a disappointing ending to a brilliant season.

Of course, that wasn’t quite the end, was it? As I mentioned above, shortly after the Yankees bowed out of the playoffs we found out that Gregorius would undergo Tommy John surgery, which has an unclear recovery period. Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs found that infielders that had TJS on their throwing arms have taken anywhere from 6 to 15 months to return to the field; and one player, T.J. Rivera, hasn’t returned since having the procedure in September of last year. The mean is right around 10 months, which would put Gregorius on-track to return sometime in August. Which is … less than ideal.

What’s Next?

Of all of the players that we’re slated to review, Gregorius might be the most difficult to think about going forward.

The soon-to-be 29-year-old is a free agent after next season, and he currently lacks a timetable for return. The Yankees anticipate a return in 2019, and there are rumblings that they expect him to play the majority of the season. That seems aggressive, given what we know – but they know way more about the severity of the tear than we do, so it wouldn’t be out of the question that he could be on an expedited recovery plan. And if he could return before the midpoint of the season (say, sometime in June), it might be worth discussing short-term replacements – a return engagement with Neil Walker or signing a similarly versatile utility player (while moving Gleyber Torres to short), perhaps? – as opposed to acting as though the sky is falling.

If, however, the Yankees expect him back in August, it might be worth pursuing another full-time option in the infield. They have a ready-made replacement at short in Torres, which is great because it broadens their pool for replacements. But counting on a core player to return for 50 or so games and immediately return to form for a contending team feels irresponsible. And then there’s also the fact that he’s slated to earn over $12 MM through arbitration next year, which is a hefty figure for someone that might play less than a third of the season; a non-tender or contract extension buying out this year and a year or two of free agency might be in the cards in that case. These are not the issues that I was hoping to tackle in this review at all – but here we are.

On the none doom-and-gloom side of the equation, I do think it’s safe to say that the Gregorius of 2017 and 2018 is the real deal. So there’s that.

Mailbag: Boone, Voit, Third Base, Kahnle, Torres, Left Field

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It has been an exceedingly busy year for Mike, due to his non-stop work here and his commitments over at CBS, so I figured that I’d try my hand at tackling your mailbag questions this week. As always, you can continue to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. Let’s do it to it.

(Getty)

Many asks: So what happens with Aaron Boone now?

As cliché as it may be to say this, I cannot help but feel that Boone is quite lucky that George Steinbrenner isn’t in charge nowadays. The Yankees did not execute well-enough to win a couple of close games, and the blowout loss was inexcusable on every level – but the manager’s job is to put his team in the best position to win, and Boone failed to do so in back-to-back games. And he failed spectacularly, too. I don’t think The Boss would have brought him back for another season.

With the current administration, however, I would be utterly shocked if Boone wasn’t back next season. Cashman and Co. clearly love his ability to manage interpersonal relationships in the clubhouse, and they knew the risks of hiring a manager straight out of the announcer’s booth. I’m sure that they’re disappointed, and I’m sure that Boone’s exit interview will focus quite a bit on his decision-making – but he’ll be on the Yankees bench next year, with no adjustments to his leash.

Segundo asks: Seeing Luke Voit playing with all this swagger is very refreshing. Can’t remember the last Yankee who played like this and was productive (Ricky Henderson?). I think he should get the first base job from day 1 next year. Thoughts? What do you think his numbers will look like if he gets 600 plate appearances

I’m a fan of Voit’s swagger, too, but I think you’re underselling this team as a whole. It comes in all shapes and sizes throughout the roster, but Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, CC Sabathia, and Ronald Torreyes all have quite a bit of swagger. Voit stands out, though, because he came out of nowhere with it – and he looks kind of like Billy Butler.

And I’d agree that he’s the best in-house option for first base as of today; I don’t think it’s possible for me to be more down on Greg Bird than I am right now. I wouldn’t expect Voit to do anything remotely close to what he did this year, though. I think the best-case scenario is probably something along the lines of what Justin Smoak did this year – .250/.350/.460 with 25 home runs or so. I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Kelan asks: You mentioned potentially upgrading the corner infield defense this offseason. Outside of maybe the obvious, sign Machado and either trade Andujar or maybe try him at first, what do you see as the most realistic options?

I’ll answer this with two caveats. The first is obvious – I’m not Mike. I’m sure that our ideas would be similar, given the available options, but it’s possible he’d go in an entirely different direction. And the second caveat? I’d give Andujar at least one more season to work on his defense. The tools are there, and he’ll be 24 for the entire 2019 season; I don’t think moving several pieces around is a necessity.

That being said, I’m not sure that there’s a great free agent option for the hot corner outside of Machado. As of this morning, these are the top-five non-Machado third basemen that are slated for free agency:

  • Adrian Beltre
  • Josh Donaldson
  • Marwin Gonzalez
  • Jed Lowrie
  • Mike Moustakas

I think Beltre (nearly 40 and may be retiring), Gonzalez (more of a utility player), and Lowrie (nearly 35 and best-suited for second) can be ruled out right away. And I don’t see Moustakas as a clear enough upgrade defensively to make a move. Donaldson is interesting, though. I’m not incredibly enthusiastic about his age or his injuries these last two seasons, but his defense is still strong and he’s a helluva hitter. If the price was right, I think he’s the sort of player that you can make think about moving Andujar for.

Nicholas asks: This may be a little pedantic on my part, but isn’t Kahnle’s problems more due to a lack of separation between his fastball and changeup? Last year he was throwing around 99 with a 90 changeup-this year it looks like his fastball regressed to around 95 but his changeup stayed the same. I think a lack of separation with his changeup is an easier fix than expecting the fastball to return.

The separation between his fastball and change-up actually didn’t change all that much. Check it out:

Kahnle’s velocity was down across the board. The difference between his fastball and change-up was 7.4 MPH in 2017 and 6.7 MPH this year. That’s certainly enough that you can’t just hand-wave it away, but I’m not sure that it’s enough to draw anything conclusive from. What stands out the most for me in terms of his pitches is actually the distribution. In 2017, Kahnle threw 65.6% fastballs, 23.9% change-ups, and 10.5% sliders; those numbers this year were 54.3%, 40.3%, and 5.4%, respectively.

Batters hit .383 (!) with a .660 SLG (!!) against his fastball, so there was definitely something going on. The vertical and horizontal movement on his fastball were virtually unchanged; the spin rate did drop from 2287 RPM to 2223 – but that’s not a massive difference. Putting all of those factors together, though, might lead you to your answer.

Consider this, though: Kahnle’s walk rate doubled in 2018, from 6.6% to 14.0%. He was pitching with a lot of base-runners, and most every pitcher is worse out of the stretch. I think that may’ve been his biggest issue.

(Elsa/Getty)

Scott asks: Hey guys, thanks again for all of your work. The yanks have long since avoided signing players to extensions before free agency (with some exception), but I wanted to get your thoughts on a Torres extension. It might rub players like Judge, Didi, and Sanchez the wrong way, but those guys have different circumstances (Judge is under control until his 30’s, Sanchez underperformed this year, Didi has a replacement in Torres). Most folks believe Torres is a bonafide above average starter at a middle infield position who I believe the yanks have under control for 4 more seasons (maybe 3). Do you think it would be crazy to offer him 6 years at 10mm per? Kingery signed for 6/42, I assume that sets the baseline. Curious as to what you guys think, thanks again.

When Scott Kingery signed his deal, he was a 23-year-old prospect that had never played in the majors; Gleyber Torres is a 21-year-old player coming off of an excellent rookie season. I think that comparison may have worked six months ago, but it doesn’t work that well now. Torres may not be a completely known commodity now, but he’s proven to be – at worst – a solid regular at the highest level.

I think you’d have to look at the deals of players that signed after a strong rookie season; that list includes names like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons. If we average their contracts, we get a baseline of 6.7 years and $42.75 MM. Round that to 7-years and $43 MM, and the Yankees would be crazy to say no – but all of those deals were inked between 2008 and 2015, and prices have gone up.

I don’t think it would be crazy to buy out Torres’s remaining team control years (and tack on some post-team control option years) for something like $10 MM a year. He could fail to improve a lick over the next half-dozen years and he’d still be worth a contract of that nature. I’d be all over it.

Luke asks: How about Eric Kratz having himself an NLDS series for Milwaukee. If we lose to the Sox, what other notable ex-Yankees do we have to root for in the rest of the playoffs?

The championship series have been set at this point, with the Red Sox vs. the Astros in the AL, and the Dodgers vs. the Brewers in the NL. Going team-by-team, we have:

  • Boston – Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce (lest we forget his 12 game cameo in 2012)
  • Houston – Brian McCann
  • Los Angeles – Rich Hill (5.1 IP in 2014)
  • Milwaukee – Erik Kratz, Curtis Granderson

Tom asks: What do u prefer and what do you think the yankees prefer of the 3 options for LF: 1. Sign a FA 2. Clint Frazier 3. Stanton becomes regular LFer, Andujar to DH, sign Machado thus solving LF & 3b defense

I think the Yankees would prefer two, or the first portion of three; that is, Stanton becomes the everyday left-fielder. I don’t know if I’m being pragmatic, pessimistic, or just completely out there, but I’m not too sure that they’re planning on making a splash on the position player side of things. Pitching feels like a much bigger priority, given the paucity of in-house options under team control.

And I’m a fan of the Yankees spending money, so I would love to see Machado manning the hot corner next season. That would mean moving Andujar to another position (first base or DH), but I’m fine with that for a player of Machado’s quality. But I also wouldn’t mind the Yankees signing Bryce Harper, sticking with Stanton at DH (or keeping that revolving door going), and giving Andujar more time to figure things out as I said above.

Scouting the ALDS Opposition: Rick Porcello

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(Dylan Buell/Getty)

Rick Porcello had his standard season in 2018, continuing his tradition of somewhat boring consistency. Take a look at his 2018 and career averages side-by-side:

  • 2018 – 191.1 IP, 2.3 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 4.28 ERA, 102 ERA+, 4.01 FIP
  • Career – 205 IP, 2.1 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 4.26 ERA, 101 ERA+, 4.02 FIP

His strikeout rates have been increasing gradually, but, with the exception of his Cy Young-winning 2016, Porcello has been the same guy year in and year out. And that guy has been effective against the Yankees throughout his career, posting a 3.11 ERA in 141.2 IP against the good guys, including a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 IP this season. Porcello’s four starts against the Yankees breakdown as follows:

  • April 12 – 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K
  • May 9 – 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 3 K
  • August 3 – 9.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K
  • September 30 – 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K

It’s actually quite similar to Eovaldi’s splits, which I discussed yesterday – two ace-like performances, one dud, and an early exit in a meaningless game. And, much like Eovaldi, Porcello is seemingly better against the Yankees than any other team. Frustrating, isn’t it?

So how does Porcello ply his craft?

The 29-year-old righty is a five-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s slider, a low-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curveball. And that’s the mix that he’s worked with throughout his career – with one notable change in usage:

Porcello was a sinker-baller for the first eight or so years of his career, but has drifted away from the pitch over the last two years. It basically fell from between 40 and 50% of his offerings to a shade under 30% the last two years; and he’s replaced those sinkers with a little bit of everything. Though, his slider usage did go up significantly this year, and it has been his best pitch over the last two years.

If Porcello pitched the Yankees differently than other teams, it doesn’t really show. Brooks Baseball has him down for zero four-seamers on April 12 – but that happened in starts against the Blue Jays and Astros, as well. And he threw his normal distribution of fastballs in his other three starts. He didn’t throw a single sinker on May 9 but, again, that’s not an isolated incident, and he made up for it in other starts. Porcello’s pitch usage varies greatly on a game-by-game basis, so it’s difficult to draw much of anything from such a vantage point.

It’s also worth noting that Porcello has historically thrived on extra rest, which is how he’ll be working tonight. He had a 2.56 ERA in 6 starts with 6+ days of rest this year, and has a 3.42 ERA in 48 starts with extra rest for his career. That being said, this isn’t quite extra rest, as he did throw 15 pitches on Friday. It may have been his normal throwing day, but there’s a huge difference between a bullpen session and pitching to Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez, and Gleyber Torres in a playoff game.

Porcello did fall-off in the second half this season, though. His ERA rose by 0.41 runs, his FIP jumped by 0.60, and his home run per flyball rate increased by 7.1 percentage points. He also has a career 5.33 ERA in 25.1 postseason innings, for what it’s worth. And – and this is a big ‘and’ – he’s a historically average pitcher. This isn’t an ace that has the Yankees number; this is someone that they’ve beaten up on before, and there’s no reason they can’t do so again.

Let’s stay alive, gentlemen.