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Scouting the ALDS Opposition: Nathan Eovaldi

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Nathan Eovaldi has faced the Yankees three times since joining the Red Sox, and he has been nothing short of dominant. His overall line in those games is 16.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, and 13 K, and it may well have been better had he not been pulled after two effective innings on September 29 (it was effectively a means to keep him stretched-out in a meaningless game). We saw flashes of this sort of dominance before, but it was sporadic at best – and the fact that this has come with the Red Sox makes it even more maddening. But I digress.

Let’s take a look at this new and improved version of Eovaldi.

When Eovaldi last pitched for the Yankees in 2016, all of the talk was about maximizing his newfound splitter. The pitch was, for all intents and purposes, born in 2015, accounting for 9.4% of his offerings; the usage more than doubled in 2016 to 22.9% … and then his elbow went ‘boom.’ To that point, Eovaldi was basically a three-pitch guy, with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter. This year, however, we’ve seen the unveiling of another new-ish pitch: a cutter.

As per Brooks Baseball, Eovaldi threw a total of 220 cutters from 2011 through 2016; he threw 577 this year. His cutter represented just under a third of his offerings this year, and he threw fewer fastballs and sliders than ever before. And while batters are hitting .252 against the cutter, his four-seamer (.206) and slider (.219) have been at their most effective this year – and that may be attributed to the increased use of a pitch that essentially splits the difference between a four-seamer and a slider.

Eovaldi’s velocity remains elite, too. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH this year, his cutter sat just over 93 MPH, and both his slider and splitter sit in the upper 80s.

So what, if anything, does he do differently against the Yankees?

Eovaldi’s splitter usage jumps out the most. He threw 213 pitches against the Yankees in his three Red Sox appearances, and just 9 of those (or 4.2%) were splitters. Compare that to an average of 12.8% overall, and it seems like a conscious decision by Eovaldi and/or the coaching staff. Those splitters were almost entirely replaced by cutters, which represented 39.0% of his offerings against the Yankees. Between that and his four-seamer, Eovaldi is throwing roughly 80% of his pitches at 93-plus MPH against the Yankees – and it’s been working.

It’s also worth noting that, by FanGraphs’ model, the Yankees are one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting the cutter. They ranked 25th in baseball against cutters, losing 7.2 more runs than the average team against it. And by that same metric, Eovaldi had the 9th-best cutter among starting pitchers, just behind CC Sabathia.

All that being said, it’s worth noting that Eovaldi’s approach in his lone start against the Yankees as a member of the Rays was largely the same – and the Yankees knocked him around for 8 hits and 5 runs in 7.1 IP. He improved as the season wore on, to be sure, and that was his fourth start after a nearly two-year layoff, but it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for the Yankees with him on the mound. And he hasn’t yet faced this fully operational offense in playoff atmosphere Yankee Stadium, either.

2018 Wild Card Game Preview: Oakland Athletics

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(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty)

The playoffs are here! This win or go home match-up features the third and fourth best teams in baseball by record (or fourth and sixth by run differential), and, if prior Wild Card Games are any indication, it’s poised to be extraordinarily exciting.

So who’s ready for a night of stressful baseball? I know I am.

The Season Series

The Yankees and A’s met six times this year, splitting the season series three games apiece; both teams took two of their three home games. The A’s outscored the Yankees 33 to 28, with that edge coming from their last meeting of the regular season, which the A’s won 8-2. Four of the six games were decided by at least four runs, with the only close game coming way back on May 12; it was an extra innings affair that the Yankees won 7-6 thanks to a Neil Walker walk-off single.

Luis Severino faced the A’s in both series. The first time, at Yankee Stadium, he pitched quite well – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K. The next time around, things didn’t go quite so well, as he surrendered 6 runs (5 earned) in 2.2 IP. It was, by Game Score, his worst start of the season. Here’s hoping for more of the former than the latter.

Injury Report

Not much has changed since these teams met a month ago; the A’s are essentially at full strength.

Their 2018 Season

The A’s finished 97-65 with a +139 run differential, and it was basically a tale of two seasons for them. They sat at 29-28 with a -7 run differential heading into June, which was in-line with most of the projection systems out there. From June 1 forward, however, they went 68-37 with a +146 run differential – and looked downright unbeatable at times.

Painting in broad strokes, the A’s were a well-rounded team this year, finishing tied for second in wRC+ (110 as a team), 10th in ERA+ (109), and 10th in defensive runs saved (+25).

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Bob Melvin settled on a rough draft of a lineup over the last dozen or so games of the season, and it looks something like this:

  1. Nick Martini, LF – .296/.397/.414, 1 HR, 0 SB, 129 wRC+ (179 PA)
  2. Matt Chapman, 3B – .278/.356/.508, 24 HR, 1 SB, 137 wRC+ (616 PA)
  3. Jed Lowrie, 2B – .267/.353/.448, 23 HR, 0 SB, 122 wRC+ (680 PA)
  4. Khris Davis, DH – .247/.326/.549, 48 HR, 0 SB, 135 wRC+ (654 PA)
  5. Matt Olson, 1B – .247/.335/.453, 29 HR, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ (660 PA)
  6. Stephen Piscotty, RF – .267/.331/.491, 27 HR, 2 SB, 125 wRC+ (605 PA)
  7. Ramon Laureano, CF – .288/.358/.474, 5 HR, 7 SB, 129 wRC+ (176 PA)
  8. Marcus Semien, SS – .255/.318/.388, 15 HR, 14 SB, 95 wRC+ (703 PA)
  9. Jonathan Lucroy, C – .241/.291/.325, 4 HR, 0 SB, 70 wRC+ (454 PA)

Mark Canha (113 wRC+ in 411 PA) is their lefty-masher off the bench, and Chad Pinder (113 wRC+ in 333 PA) can play almost every position. I reckon that we’ll see both tonight.

The Starting Pitcher We Will See

Liam Hendriks will be starting – or ‘opening’ – for the A’s tonight. He pitched to a 4.13 ERA (102 ERA+) in 24.0 innings in what was a fairly crazy year. He underwent surgery to remove a cyst earlier this year, needed a platelet-rich plasma injection for a torn hip tendon, and was designated for assignment back in June – at which point he had a 7.36 ERA. He didn’t return to the A’s until September 1, but from that point forward he had a 1.38 ERA in 13.0 IP. And his performance was enough for the A’s to trot him out there to kick things off in the Wild Card game.

The 29-year-old righty primarily throws three pitches – a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-to-mid 90s sinker, and a high-80s slider. He’ll mix in a change-up and curve at times, but I don’t think that we’ll see many of those in what should be an ‘air it out’ sort of appearance.

Treinen. (Ezra Shaw/Getty)

The Bullpen

A’s beat writer Jane Lee believes the team’s game plan for the bullpen may be as follows:

The second through fifth innings will likely call for some combination of Lou Trivino, Shawn Kelley, Yusmeiro Petit and Ryan Buchter. From there, Oakland would roll out setup men Fernando Rodney and Jeurys Familia for one inning apiece ahead of Treinen’s entrance.

Oakland’s bullpen has been a strength throughout the season, but let’s focus on those seven names. These are their numbers solely with the A’s:

  • Trivino – 74.0 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.92 ERA
  • Kelley – 16.2 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.16 ERA
  • Petit – 93.0 IP, 7.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 3.00 ERA
  • Buchter – 39.1 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.75 ERA
  • Rodney – 20.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 3.92 ERA
  • Familia – 31.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 3.45 ERA
  • Treinen – 80.1 IP, 11.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.78 ERA

That’s a heck of a bullpen, with several dominant arms. Treinen was arguably the best reliever in baseball this year, and the options in front of him vary from solid to great. By WPA this was the best bullpen in baseball, and by fWAR it was fifth – and this is the best sample of that group.

Who (Or What) To Watch

This section feels kind of meaningless, doesn’t it? You’re watching a winner take all game between two well-matched teams – and, if you’re reading this, you’re a big-time fan of one of those teams. That won’t stop me from pointing out a few things, though.

These are two juggernaut bullpens. The Yankees were 1st in fWAR and 3rd in WPA, and match-up well with the A’s from top to bottom. How Melvin and Boone deploy their relievers may well be the determining factor in this game.

These are also two of the most prolific power-hitting teams in baseball, too. The Yankees finished first in home runs and ISO, and the A’s finished third in both – and the A’s play in a park that’s not terribly conducive to power. The Yankees have six players with 20-plus home runs, and the A’s have five.

And there’s a ton of history between these teams, to boot.

9/28 to 9/30 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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J.D. Martinez. (Getty)

This is it, folks – the last series of the regular season. The Yankees are sitting at 98-61, meaning they’ve already clinched their best record since 2009, and their magic number for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game is one. That means that there is, in an ideal world, precious little to play for this weekend so long as we see a Yankees win or an A’s loss at some point. So here’s hoping for as little drama as possible.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Red Sox for a three-game set just over a week ago, taking two out of three by a combined score of 19-14. Some notes:

  • Aaron Judge returned to the lineup in the first game, but Neil Walker played the role of hero, knocking out what proved to be a game-winning three-run home run in the 7th inning. J.A. Happ was pretty good, too, allowing just one unearned run in 6 innings of work.
  • Luis Severino had arguably his best start of the month (if not the second half) in game two, tossing 7 innings and allowing 6 hits, 1 run, and 1 walk, while striking out 6.
  • Luke Voit was the story of the second game, though, going 4-for-4 with two home runs. He hit another home run the next night, too.
  • We won’t talk about game three otherwise.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Not much has changed since the last series – Marco Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, and Carson Smith are done for the year, and Eduardo Nunez’s knee is still bothering him.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are 107-52 with a +229 run differential, and clinched the best record in baseball what seems like a lifetime ago. They lead the majors in runs scored by 25 (the Yankees are second), and only the Astros and Dodgers have allowed fewer runs. As much as I hate to type these words out, they’re the team to beat right now – and it’d be disingenuous to say otherwise.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Alex Cora has been giving a bit of extra rest to his regulars this week, which isn’t terribly surprising. Their go-to lineup is generally:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.437/.643, 32 HR, 30 SB, 187 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .287/.364/.462, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.403/.629, 42 HR, 6 SB, 174 OPS+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.358/.517, 22 HR, 8 SB, 133 OPS+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .244/.322/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 102 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .243/.299/.383, 14 HR, 15 SB, 87 OPS+
  7. Rafael Devers, 3B – .244/.301/.440, 21 HR, 5 SB, 97 OPS+
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .232/.312/.399, 13 HR, 16 SB, 91 OPS+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .180/.235/.284, 5 HR, 1 SB, 40 OPS+

Steve Pearce (138 OPS+) will start somewhere against J.A. Happ, Brock Holt (105 OPS+) will start a game or two at various positions, and Christian Vazquez (47 OPS+) should see some time behind the plate.

Porcello. (David Maxwell/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:00 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. LHP Brian Johnson

Johnson started against the Yankees back on August 2, and it was a mixed bag for the 27-year-old southpaw. He walked away with the win and struck out 11 in just 5 innings … but he also allowed five runs. I suppose that’s what happens when your team wins 15-7. But I digress. Johnson has been more than serviceable for the Red Sox this year, pitching to a 4.11 ERA (106 ERA+) in 96.1 IP split between the rotation and the bullpen.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/22) – 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 1 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has faced the Yankees twice since being acquired by the Red Sox, and he’s been all but unhittable, pitching to the following line: 14.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K. His ERA in the seven games between Yankees match-ups is 6.58, which is endlessly frustrating, as well.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 9/24) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K

Sunday (3:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Rick Porcello

Porcello has been his typically average-ish self this year, pitching to a 4.33 ERA (101 ERA+) in 189.1 IP. He rarely misses a turn in the rotation, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning in 26 of his 32 starts. And his two best starts of the year have come against the Yankees; he threw a complete game one-hitter on August 3, and 7 innings of shutout ball on April 12. So let’s hope Sunday is more similar to his May 9 start in which he allowed 5 runs in 5.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/22) – 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 K

The Bullpen

Closer Craig Kimbrel is having his typically strong season, but he looked completely lost his last time out; he faced five batters, walking three and hitting one, and left the game with the bases loaded (and all of those inherited runners would go on to score).

It’s a bit shaky behind Kimbrel, with knuckleballer Steven Wright being the only other standout of late. Ryan Brasier has been solid, as well (albeit prone to Yankees-related shellings), and Matt Barnes and Hector Velazquez have had good seasons.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a Yankees-Red Sox series with a little something on the line. That’s all I need.

9/24 to 9/27 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

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Tommy Pham and Joey Wendle. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Yankees magic number to clinch home field advantage is five, with seven games to play. They’re two games up in the loss column, which is good, but they’re remaining schedule is quite difficult – especially when compared to the A’s, who will face the Mariners and Angels. The odds are in the Yankees favor but, to be incredibly cliche, that’s why they play the games.

With two series remaining, the Yankees will first travel to Tampa Bay.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Rays for a three-game set back in the middle of August, dropping two out of three by a combined score of 10-6. Some of that could be chalked up to Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez being on the DL, Andrew McCutchen still in San Francisco, and Luke Voit not yet emerging – but it was still a bothersome series to watch. Some notes:

  • J.A. Happ spun a gem in the first game, throwing 7 scoreless innings and allowing just six base-runners (one of which was via HBP). It was his first of three scoreless outings for the good guys thus far.
  • Miguel Andujar went 2-for-4 with a double and a solo home run in game two … and the rest of the offense went 3-for-28 with a double.
  • Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs in the first, but settled down nicely from there; unfortunately, the Yankees once again mustered only a single run – this one off of a double by Giancarlo Stanton.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more (not so) fun facts.

Injury Report

Wilmer Font, Jose Mujica, and Daniel Robertson have been added to the Rays fairly lengthy list of players that are done for the season. Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier are also dealing with nagging injuries, though neither has hit the DL.

Their Story So Far

The Rays are 87-68 with a +85 run differential, and have an incredibly slim chance at making the playoffs as the second Wild Card team. To do so they would need to win out while the A’s lost out, though, so the degree of ‘slim’ cannot really be exaggerated. That being said, it’s still kind of miraculous that this team has played so well since opening the season 3-12, considering that they are tied for the eight-best record in baseball with the Cleveland Indians.

Their season has been unconventional, to say the least, but their bullpen/opener strategy appears to be catching on a bit more than expected – so this may end up being one of the more memorable non-playoff seasons in recent memory.

The Lineup We Might See

Operating under the assumption that Kiermaier and Choi will be playing:

  1. Mallex Smith, RF – .299/.370/.409, 2 HR, 36 SB, 118 OPS+
  2. Matt Duffy, 3B – .295/.359/.367, 4 HR, 12 SB, 104 OPS+
  3. Ji-Man Choi, DH – .267/.353/.513, 10 HR, 2 SB, 137 OPS+
  4. Tommy Pham, LF – .273/.361/.456, 20 HR, 13 SB, 124 OPS+
  5. Joey Wendle, 2B – .301/.356/.439, 7 HR, 15 SB, 121 OPS+
  6. Willy Adames, SS – .271/.340/.410, 10 HR, 6 SB, 109 OPS+
  7. Kevin Kiermaier, CF – .220/.284/.376, 7 HR, 10 SB, 82 OPS+
  8. Jake Bauers, 1B – .198/.316/.389, 11 HR, 5 SB, 96 OPS+
  9. Jesus Sucre, C – .215/.250/.260, 1 HR, 1 SB, 43 OPS+

Nick Ciuffo (73 OPS+) will probably see a start or two at catcher, and Carlos Gomez (80 OPS+), C.J. Cron (125 OPS+), and Austin Meadows (117 OPS+) will see some time in the lineup, as well.

Ryne Stanek with some serious #flow. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:00 PM EST): RHP Jonathan Holder vs. RHP Diego Castillo

A 24-year-old rookie, Castillo has been quite good for the Rays this year. He has a 3.25 ERA (127 ERA+) in 52.2 IP, spread across 10 starts and 31 relief appearances. That’s right in-line with his 3.33 FIP, as he has solid strikeout (9.9 K/9) and walk (3.1 BB/9) rates. He’s faced the Yankees six times this year, pitching to the following line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 5 K. Castillo is a fastball-slider guy all the way, featuring a high-90s four-seamer and a high-80s slider.

The Yankees, meanwhile, announced earlier today that Holder will get tonight’s start. Aaron Boone hinted at a bullpen game at some point this week as the Yankees look to get their pitching staff lined up for the Wild Card Game next week. There’s a chance Holder will be used as an opener with Sonny Gray set to take over in the second inning, after Holder faces the top of the lineup.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/21) – 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Tuesday (7:00 PM EST): TBA vs. TBA

Wednesday (7:10 PM EST): TBA vs. TBA

Thursday (1:10 PM EST): TBA vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

The Yankees are trying to get their postseason rotation lined up and the Rays are using openers, so the starting pitchers for the majority of the series remain TBA. The Rays acquired Glasnow in the Chris Archer trade and he’s been league average for the Rays (4.11 ERA and 100 ERA+), throwing 50.1 IP with a 9.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Glasnow is similar to a young Dellin Betances. He’s got an upper-90s fastball and a hammer breaking ball. His strike-throwing ability varies on a game-by-game basis.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/22) – 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

The Rays bullpen has thrown 779.2 IP this year; the Angels are in second, with 606.0. That difference is greater than the difference between the Angels and the team with the fewest relief innings (the Indians with 440.0), so it’s kind of miraculous that the Rays bullpen is in the top-ten in all of baseball in adjusted-ERA this year. Their bullpen was showing signs of fatigue in late-July and early-August, but it has rebounded to the tune of a 110 ERA+ in the second-half.

Sergio Romo is nominally the team’s closer, picking up 5 saves so far this month, but he has struggled this month, allowing home runs in three of his last five appearances, and is being used a bit more sparingly. Ryan Yarbrough (3.88 ERA in 139.1 IP) is the team’s long-reliever, with Yonny Chirinos (3.68 ERA in 85.2 IP) second-in line for those longer appearances. Jose Alvarado, Adam Kolarek, and Andrew Kittredge have been playing big roles for them of late, as well.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a rivalry series with both team’s having something on the line, regardless of however fleeting it may be for the Rays – what more do you need?

9/18 to 9/20 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

The Yankees opened their final homestand of the 2018 season by dropping two out of three to the Blue Jays, which isn’t great. Luckily, the A’s also lost two out of three this weekend – thank you, Tampa Bay (which is a sentence I feel strange writing) – so the Yankees remain two up in the loss column in the Wild Card race. And that’s something.

Next up: the Boston Red Sox.

The Last Time They Met

Do we have to talk about this?

The Yankees visited Boston for a four-game set in the beginning of August, the result of which was a sweep in favor of the bad guys. The Red Sox outscored the Yankees 28-13, and secured their position atop the American League East. Let’s try to find some positives from the series:

  • Giancarlo Stanton had three multi-hit games, and went 6-for-16 with two doubles and a home run overall.
  • Chance Adams had a decent big-league debut, going 5 inning and allowing three hits, three runs, and one walk, while striking out a couple.

That’s about it. Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia and Carson Smith are both done for the season. Matt Barnes is working his way back from hip inflammation, and has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions already – he could be back soon. Mookie Betts (oblique) and Eduardo Nunez (knee) are both banged-up, but neither is expected to hit the disabled list; and both should play this series.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are 103-47 with a +221 run differential, and have already clinched a postseason spot. Their magic number to clinch the AL East is two, so one win this series will do the trick. It’s only a matter of time before they clinch home field throughout the playoffs, as well. They lead the majors in runs scored, they’re third in runs allowed, and they’re seventh in FanGraphs’ defensive rating. This is a well-rounded team, to say the least.

The Lineup We Might See

While manager Alex Cora doesn’t have a reason to rush Betts back into the lineup, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’ll be there for at least two of the three games. Based on that:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .337/.431/.619, 29 HR, 28 SB, 180 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .287/.363/.467, 16 HR, 20 SB, 123 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .328/.398/.628, 41 HR, 5 SB, 172 OPS+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.359/.519, 21 HR, 8 SB, 134 OPS+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .246/.320/.440, 15 HR, 2 SB, 103 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .249/.308/.394, 14 HR, 15 SB, 91 OPS+
  7. Jackie Bradley, CF – .232/.310/.400, 12 HR, 16 SB, 91 OPS+
  8. Rafael Devers, 3B – .238/.295/.415, 17 HR, 5 SB, 90 OPS+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .182/.240/.287, 5 HR, 1 SB, 42 OPS+

Steve Pearce (149 OPS+) will probably start at first against J.A. Happ, and Brock Holt (98 OPS+) could grab a start or two at any number of positions.

Price. (Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (1:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has been a solid pick-up for the Red Sox, pitching to a 4.17 ERA (105 ERA+) in 41.0 IP. His underlying numbers have slipped quite a bit, though, with his strikeout rate dipping by 7.8 percentage points and his walk rate jumping by 1.9 percentage points. It hasn’t hurt him (or the Red Sox) thus far, though. And he did throw 8 shutout innings against the Yankees on August 4.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/11) – 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP David Price

Price has been incredible since the All-Star break, pitching to the following line: 57.2 IP, 39 H, 9 BB, 60 K, 1.56 ERA, 2.25 FIP. That stretch includes his outing against the Yankees on August 5, where he allowed two runs in 6 IP. Price’s pitch selection hasn’t changed all that much on a game-by-game basis, so this is simply a matter of a talented pitcher getting hot at the right time, it seems.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/12) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

This year constitutes something of a breakout for the 25-year-old Rodriguez, who has career-bests in ERA (3.53), strikeouts (26.3%), and walks (7.1%). The Yankees have seen him twice this year already; he shut them out for five innings back on May 10, and then allowed five runs in 6 innings on June 29. I’m hoping for more of the latter this time around.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/13) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel had a bout of mortality coming out of the All-Star break, allowing runs in five of six games at one point and seeing his ERA climb by 0.86 in the process. He has settled down since then, though, pitching to a 0.82 ERA in his last 11 appearances.

31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier has come out of nowhere to be a lights out late inning option for the Red Sox, pitching to a 1.53 ERA (286 ERA+) in 29.1 IP since being called-up in June, and he’s been the team’s best non-Kimbrel reliever in Barnes’ absence. Drew Pomeranz was moved to the bullpen in August, and has struggled mightily in that role with a 5.79 ERA in 18.2 IP. Outside of those two, it’s the usual suspects – Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, etc. The bullpen is probably the closest thing to a weakness the Red Sox have, as it has been largely middle of the pack since the break.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The Red Sox have close to nothing to play for at this point, whereas the Yankees are fighting for home field advantage in a one-game playoff. That’s a recipe for excitement, isn’t it?

9/14 to 9/16 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

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(Getty)

The Yankees have a 1.5 game lead in the race for home field in the Wild Card game with 16 games to play. It’s effectively a 2.5 game lead, in fairness, as they do hold the tiebreaker over the Oakland A’s. As they enter their last homestand of the season, this series feels rather important – and not just because they went 4-5 on their last road trip. The Yankees are a better team at home, and having that edge in a win or go home game is huge.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees were rude hosts back in August, sweeping the Blue Jays in a three-game set, and outscoring them 28-13. Some notes from the series:

  • Game one was a rain-shortened affair, with the Yankees picking up the win due to some timely home runs by Neil Walker and Giancarlo Stanton and strong relief efforts from Chad Green and David Robertson. Due to weird scoring quirks, Robertson actually picked up the save despite not recording the last out of the game (it was called in the bottom of the 7th).
  • Miguel Andujar had a big series, going 6-for-13 with 2 doubles, a home run, and 8 RBI.
  • Didi Gregorius suffered his heel injury in the third and final game of the series, but he’s back now and that’s all that matters … right?

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Brandon Drury (hand), Marcus Stroman (blister), and Troy Tulowitzki (feet) are done for the season; Russell Martin is on paternity leave, but is expected back this weekend.

Their Story So Far

The Blue Jays are 65-81 with a -105 run differential, which put them 22nd and 24th in the majors, respectively. Since these teams last played they made headlines for confirming that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – who hit over .400 at Double-A and .336/.414/.564 in 30 games at Triple-A – would not get the call to the show for a variety of inane reasons; it’ll be interesting to see what, if anything, comes of these service time debacles. They also dealt Curtis Granderson to the Brewers, and Josh Donaldson to the Indians for a non-prospect in a trade that has made many teams quite angry.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager John Gibbons has been mixing and matching his lineups quite a bit over the last few weeks, due to both the trade of Granderson and expanded rosters. The most common lineup as of late is something like this:

  1. Billy McKinney, LF – .324/.393/.568, 4 HR, 0 SB, 163 OPS+
  2. Lourdes Gurriel, SS – .284/.317/.436, 11 HR, 2 SB, 107 OPS+
  3. Justin Smoak, 1B – .247/.355/.466, 24 HR, 0 SB, 126 OPS+
  4. Kendrys Morales, DH – .256/.339/.456, 21 HR, 2 SB, 119 OPS+
  5. Randal Grichuk, RF – .245/.302/.481, 21 HR, 3 SB, 113 OPS+
  6. Kevin Pillar, CF – .245/.274/.408, 12 HR, 14 SB, 86 OPS+
  7. Yangervis Solarte, 2B – .234/.287/.394, 17 HR, 1 SB, 87 OPS+
  8. Aledmys Diaz, 3B – .254/.290/.445, 17 HR, 3 SB, 101 OPS+
  9. Danny Jansen, C – .254/.357/.407, 1 HR, 0 SB, 113 OPS+

Rookie and 80-grade name Rowdy Tellez (249 OPS+ in 23 PA) should see time at 1B and/or DH. Russell Martin (87 OPS+), Devon Travis (83 OPS+), and Teoscar Hernandez (110 OPS+) figure to play, as well.

Reid-Foley. (Brian Davidson/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Marco Estrada

Estrada is wrapping up the worst season of his career. He’s currently sitting on a 5.32 ERA (79 ERA+) in 130.1 IP with career-worst home run and strikeout rates. The Yankees have seen Estrada three times this year, scoring 9 runs in 18 innings; though, one of those starts was a one-run, 6 IP effort.

Last Outing (vs. CLE on 9/7) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Sean Reid-Foley

This will be the fifth start of Reid-Foley’s career, and his second against the Yankees. His first time in the Bronx didn’t go too well (for him, at least), as he allowed 8 runs (6 earned) in 4.1 IP. Gregorius, Stanton, and Andujar all took him deep. Reid-Foley did follow that up with a gem against the hapless Marlins, though, pitching to the following line: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 K.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/8) – 4.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 3 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. LHP Thomas Pannone

Rare is the occasion when I write-up a post like this and come across a completely unfamiliar name, but here we are. Pannone is a 24-year-old rookie southpaw who debuted back on August 10, and has served as the Blue Jays swingman since then. He actually pitched against the Yankees back on August 19, holding them scoreless for 1.1 innings. Pannone opened this season with an 80-game PED suspension (which he denied – successfully – on a polygraph test, for whatever that’s worth), and only made 10 appearances in the minors before being called-up to the show.

Pannone is a three-pitch junkballer, featuring a high-80s four-seamer, a low-80s change-up, and a low-70s curve. From that description, he kind of sounds like a left-handed version of Estrada.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/9) – 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 K

The Bullpen

Ken Giles (5.32 ERA) and old friend Tyler Clippard (3.68 ERA) share the closing duties, and Ryan Tepera (3.71 ERA) is also in the high-leverage outs mix. Rookies Jose Fernandez (1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP) and Tim Mayza (3.69 ERA) have seen heavy duty this month, as well. It’s not a great bullpen – which is to be expected, considering their trade deadline – but it’s not awful.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m interested in a longer look at Billy McKinney, and Rowdy Tellez has built-up a small cult-like following in his few weeks in the majors. Beyond that, the Blue Jays aren’t a terribly interesting team. Most of the focus on this series will be on the Yankees ability to hold the line.

Please Don’t Rush Aaron Judge Back

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(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

Aaron Judge is the best player on the Yankees, and it isn’t particularly close. He leads the team in WAR by half a win, despite having last played on July 26, and his 155 wRC+ leads the team by 27 points. Hell, he’s still ninth in the American League in WAR despite giving up a minimum of 93 plate appearances to every other player in the top-ten. Judge is one of the best players in baseball, and that cannot be overstated.

And the Yankees have seriously felt the impact of his absence. They’re 64-35 (.646 winning percentage) with Judge in the lineup, and 26-19 (.578) without him. While that big swing cannot be solely attributed to Judge, it’s clear that the offensive identity of this team is wholly different without him.

So what’s with the title of this post, then? Simple: Judge is under team control for a minimum of four more years, and the Yankees are built for 2019 and beyond. So why risk further injury?

As is the case with Mike Axisa, I am not a doctor. I do not know the risks associated with playing through a not-fully-healed chip fracture, so this may all be a moot point. At the same time, however, Judge is still feeling pain, and it is difficult to see that as anything more than a red flag with my uninformed eyes.

The Yankees have had some bad luck with players coming back too soon recently, most notably in the matters of Mark Teixeira and Greg Bird. Those were different injuries to different players, to be sure, so there isn’t a one-to-one comparison – but Judge is also significantly better than either of those players, and (as we know all too well) much more difficult to replace. If their is even the slightest chance that aggravating this injury could have similar repercussions as we’ve seen before, then I can’t imagine bringing back Judge, even as the team is poised for a deep playoff run.

It is true that flags fly forever, and playing for next year doesn’t always work out all that well – just take a look at the Nationals, who have not looked quite the same since preemptively shutting Stephen Strasburg down just a few years ago. But the Yankees have been playing the long game for several years now, and all of the key players to their successes in 2018 are under team control next year; and more help is on the way. I feel comfortable trusting the process here.

If Judge is healthy (or as healthy as a player can be at this stage of the season), then he should play. If his wrist is still giving him issues, he shouldn’t. And, as much as I hope it’s the former, I do think the latter is something that needs to be given a great deal of consideration.