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He deserved it
Posted by: | CommentsMy father said many times that A-Rod would never win a title with the Yankees. At 4:11 EST on the morning of the Yankees’ 27th championship, I’d like to rub it in.
Some pregame reading material you might enjoy
Posted by: | CommentsEveryone is probably overanxious for tonight’s first pitch. We’ll get the ceremonial one by none other than Scott Brosius, and then Andy Pettitte will throw the official one a few minutes later. But between then and now, you might want to fill your time with some reading material. It just so happens that Jay at Fack Youk has been on fire today, so I’ll defer to him for this post.
- First, to get warmed up, check out what a psychologist has to say about parents who teach their kids to hate the Yankees. I found the article last night, and Jay provided the appropriate commentary. My personal favorite: “If all else fails, remind your kids that the Phillies won the World Series in 2008 and that the Yankees have not won a championship since 2000.” On another note, I kind of like that everyone hates the Yankees. So please, parents, continue as you were.
- There’s been plenty of talk about Chase Utley’s prospects of winning the World Series MVP even if his team loses. It sounds wrong, but it’s not without precedent. Bobby Richardson won the MVP in 1960 even though the Yankees lost to the Pirates. Jay examines the case of Richardson and why he won the MVP. Turns out it might have been a procedural glitch that doesn’t exist any more. If the Yankees win, I expect a Yankees MVP.
- Finally, for the main event, Jay schools Mike Lupica in the art of hindsight. Lupica, like most sportswriters, often falls victim to the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. Someone needs to call him out on it. Unfortunately, I refuse to read a word the man writes, so I’m glad Jay took care of it.
Is it 7:57 yet?
Yankees have won the World Series with struggling key players
Posted by: | CommentsFor many reasons, Mark Teixeira probably didn’t appreciate Tuesday’s break in World Series action. He’s struggled through the first five games, as he has throughout most of the playoffs. Off-days aren’t kind to slumping players. The media, needing to fill column inches, tend to harp on these guys, endlessly pointing out their paltry contributions. Teixeira was no exception.
Not only does Teixeira have to deal with nearly every major media outlet harping on his struggles during an off-day, but he has to deal with the off-day itself. From Jim Baumbach’s “Teixeira is struggling” column, regarding the frequent days off in October:
“I’m not going to make excuses because everyone has to deal with it. But being a switch hitter and being a guy who lives off hot streaks and lives off a rhythm, it doesn’t help.”
Thankfully, most of Teixeira’s 10 postseason hits have been pretty big. His two hits in the ALDS were a single before an Alex Rodriguez game-tying home run, and then a walk-off homer in the same game. He had just one extra base hit in the ALCS, and that was a bases-loaded double that brought the Yankees within one of the Angels after being down 4-0 most of the game. In the World Series he has just two hits, one of them a home run off Pedro Martinez that tied Game 2.
Instead of just lamenting Teixeira’s struggled, I’d like to look at some other key Yankees who struggled through a postseason or World Series in which the Yankees won. Maybe that will put his struggles in perspective.
Bernie Williams
Bernie has 22 postseason home runs, second all time to Manny Ramirez. We’ve seen some big postseason moments from Bernie over the years, and he contributed a lot to the Yankees four World Series titles of the late 90s. Yet Bernie always seemed to struggle in the World Series. In 141 career Series plate appearances, Williams is just 25 for 120 with three doubles, five home runs, and 20 walks, for a slash line of .208/.319/.358. There have been some pretty atrocious performances in there, but none worse than the 1998 World Series in which he went 1 for 16, his lone hit being a home run.
While he generally hit well across the LDS and LCS rounds, Bernie has turned in a pair of poor postseason performances. The first was 1998, when he went hitless in 11 LDS at-bats and then had that terrible World Series. He did pick it up against Cleveland in the LCS, though, reaching base 15 times in 28 plate appearances, though he had just one extra base hit, a double, in that round. Then in 2000 he did the same thing, going 5 for 20 with no extra base hits in the LDS, smacking around the Mariners in the LCS, and then going back into hiding for the World Series with a 2 for 18 performance.
Bernie will always be revered by Yankees fans for his contributions to the four championships, but there have been times when he’s fallen short. He’s never hit well in the World Series, though his bat was sometimes a big reason why the Yankees got there.
Paul O’Neill
In his first World Series in New York — the team’s first appearance since 1981 — O’Neill couldn’t hit the Braves. He picked up just two over 12 at bats in that series, though both were doubles. He continued that slump into the 1998 World Series, where he went 4 for 19 with a double as his only extra base hit. Then again in 1999 he was 3 for 15 with no extra base hits. It wasn’t until 2000 that O’Neill would hit in the Series, as he also did in 2001.
O’Neill has also struggled through an entire postseason. In 1999 he had just 11 hits in 44 at bats, which is bad enough, but even worse it came without the benefit of extra bases. Just 11 singles was all O’Neill could muster. Yet the Yankees went on to win each of the series on the way to a sweep of the Atlanta Braves.
Tino Martinez
There’s quite a connection here between Martinez and Teixeira. Martinez struggled in his first Yankees postseason, much like Teixeira is now. He went 4 for 22 with two doubles in the LDS, 4 for 22 with one double in the LCS, and then 1 for 11 with no extra base hits in the World Series. That one hit game in the Yankees 12-1 Game 1 loss, making it hurt that much more. Martinez’s struggles were so pronounced, in fact, that Joe Torre opted to start Cecil Fielder at first base when the team was in Atlanta.
The Yankees survived his 0 for 3 performance in Game 6 of that World Series to defeat the Braves 3-2. That game centered around one inning in which Martinez did not bat, and was controlled by excellent pitching by Greg Maddux and Jimmy Key.
Teixeira’s struggled are frustrating, but they’re not unprecedented. Key Yankees have had bad postseasons, and even more have had poor World Series performances. That didn’t stop the Yankees from winning four titled last decade, and it shouldn’t stop them from winning it this year. It would be nice to see Teixeira contribute to a big Game 6 win, but if he doesn’t he still has a great group of hitters surrounding him. “If we were losing games 2-1 and I was leaving a ton of guys on base, I would have been squeezing the life out of the bat,” he said. “But my teammates have been picking me up just like I picked them up all season. That’s how a team works.”
Fans retain optimism after Game 5 loss
Posted by: | CommentsGame 5 of the World Series felt a lot like Game 5 of the ALCS. The Yankees readied for the kill, but A.J. Burnett failed them early. In the ALCS, he allowed six straight base runners, leading to four first-inning runs. In the World Series, he allowed four straight base runners, leading to three first-inning runs. Burnett would be the goat in both games, even though he settled down in the ALCS. His seventh-inning performance in that game led to the loss, though in the World Series he didn’t wait that long, allowing two more runs in the third inning.
Yet when I got home after the game, and then again this morning, I noticed a sense of optimism from the Yankees fan base. I wasn’t the only one. As Ross from New Stadium Insider noted on his Twitter account, “Up 3-2 to the Angels, there was panic in the streets. Up 3-2 to the Phillies, people are planning a parade. What’s the deal?” It’s an interesting question. Why are Yankees fans optimistic now when they were less so in the ALCS?
I can’t answer for everyone, but here are my three main reasons.
1. The Yankees had a history with the Angels
During the Joe Torre era, the Yankees faced the Angels twice in the playoffs, losing both times. Those old feelings certainly lingered during the ALCS. There was panic when the Angels won Game 3 — though mostly because of the managerial decision that preceded the loss. The Yankees had a chance to go up 3-0 and they blew it. Even after a 10-1 drubbing, fans were in a panic after the Yankees dropped a winnable Game 5.
The negative feelings also had to do with how the Yankees lost Game 5 of the ALCS. Burnett put them in an early hole, but they rallied back in the seventh to take a two-run lead. But then the Yanks blew that and lost the game. It’s one thing if the team is losing the entire way, like Game 5 of the World Series. It’s quite another when they rally back from a big deficit and then give it back.
Beyond the history with the Angels, there’s the thought that they’re a better team than the Phillies. This isn’t a knock on the Phillies — they’re certainly the best team in the NL — but the Angels had a good season and put up a fight in the ALCS. Many thought that the battle of baseball’s best took place in the league championship, not in the World Series. It’s understandable, then, that fans would be in more of a panic after losing Game 5 to a team they thought best equipped to beat the Yankees.
2. The Yankees have beaten all of Philadelphia’s non-Lee starters
Cliff Lee is easily the Phillies best pitcher. The Yankees have faced him twice in the World Series and have lost both times. That can be disheartening if he’s scheduled to pitch a potential Game 7, but he’s not. Game 5 was his last start, and the Yankees have beaten the Game 6 and potential Game 7 starters. The lack of Lee, in other words, is inspiring in itself.
If the Yankees lost Game 6 of the ALCS, they likely would have faced the Angels’ best, John Lackey. If they lose Game 6 of the World Series, they’ll face either Cole Hamels or J.A. Happ, neither of whom is Philly’s best. But even before that, there’s plenty of confidence from Yankees fans about beating Pedro Martinez in Game 6. He pitched well in Game 2, but can he pull yet another rabbit out of his hat? It’s almost the same deal as with Joe Saunders, really.
3. The Yankees made statements by beating the Angels and taking three straight from the Phillies
The past certainly plays into this sense of optimism. After a panic following the Game 5 loss in the ALCS, fans were treated to a hell of a game back at the Stadium. They chipped away at Joe Saunders before finally breaking through. I think that win set up some intense optimism, and even a Game 5 loss in the World Series couldn’t completely destroy that. Because there is precedent, Yankees fans seem more confident in the World Series Game 6.
There is also lingering optimism from beating the Phillies in three straight games, two of them in Philadelphia. The Yanks out-pitched and out-hit the Phillies in those contests, and I think that instilled Yankees fans with a sense of confidence. It’s not like in the Angels series, where the Yankees lost two winnable games. They lost pretty definitively in Games 1 and 5 (even though they had a comeback chance in the latter).
Surely there are other reasons to remain optimistic, but for me these are the big three. The Yankees have played like the better team in each of their three postseason series. There’s no reason to lose confidence because they lost one game in Philadelphia. As with the ALCS, no one thought the World Series would be a cakewalk. It would have been nice to close it out last night, but there’s every reason in the world to be confident that the Yankees will do it on Wednesday evening.
Game 5 gameplan backfires on Yanks
Posted by: | CommentsA.J. Burnett was atrocious last night. There’s no other way to describe it. He settled down in the first after Dave Eiland gave him an earful, but he fell back into his wild ways before long. With none out in the third inning the Yankees found themselves in a tough spot. They’d have to piece together the game from a bullpen that has failed in the postseason where it thrived during the regular season.
That’s on Burnett. He wanted the ball on short rest in Game 5, and the Yankees decided that was the best tactic. Yet it was clear from the first inning that Burnett didn’t have what he had in Game 2. He left fastballs up in the zone, signaling a mechanical issue. We’ve seen it plenty of times during the 2009 season. Against a lesser team, maybe Burnett gets away with it and makes his way through six innings. Against the Phillies, that wasn’t happening.
In the New York media market, the blame will flow. Some will blame Burnett for not being mentally tough enough to put away the Phillies. Most will blame Girardi and the Yankees organization (because I don’t think Girardi made the decision alone). There was an alternative tactic which would have led to the same result, but would have left the Yankees with their top three pitchers ready to pitch in the final two games. In terms of results, the decision didn’t work out. There’s no denying that.
Does the bad result mean the Yankees made a bad decision? While that’s a question that requires thought and reflection, I’m sure many people already have an answer in mind. It’s either yes, the Yankees made the right move and it backfired, or no, the Yankees made a poor decision and paid for it. In scenarios like this the answer is never black and white, though the result points towards the Yankees making a bad decision.
In order to determine if it was a bad decision, however, we have to rewind to Sunday, before the start of Game 4. That is when the Yankees made the decision to start Burnett in Game 5. The decision was made without knowing that the Yankees would take a 3-1 series lead that night. That’s a wrench in the argument that the Yankees should have started Gaudin when up 3-1 — they would have had to decide it before they had that information.
Since there was time to run an end around after Game 4, let’s explore that path. The Yankees take Game 4, going up 3-1 in the series. Next up is Cliff Lee, followed by Pedro Martinez and then J.A. Happ or Cole Hamels. If the Yankees changed plans after Game 4, they would have lined up their worst starter, Chad Gaudin, against the Phillies best. They then would have had Burnett on five days’ rest against Pedro Martinez on the same, with both Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia ready for a possible Game 7. That doesn’t sound so bad, does it?
Here’s a statement I think we can all agree on: Chad Gaudin could have done what Burnett did in Game 5. We’re able to agree on this statement because we have the benefit of hindsight. But let’s say Gaudin did post the two-plus innings, six-runs line, and the Yankees still lost 8-6. The results would have been the same, except under that scenario the Yankees are going back to New York with their three best pitchers ready to go. Put that way, it sounds like a better scenario.
Mike put it well in the postgame reaction. “AJ Burnett completely crapped the bed, which had little to do with short rest and almost everything to do with the fact that he’s AJ Burnett.” What if Burnett had this kind of game in Game 6? That could force a Game 7, something the Yankees surely don’t want to face after being up three games to one. If they had punted Game 5 and then Burnett folded in Game 6 as he did last night, that’s where they’d find themselves.
Coming into the playoffs, it was clear the Yankees had a strategy, and that was to ride their best arms as long as they could. Until Game 5, it had worked. The Yankees had used Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Rivera to cover 84 percent of the team’s postseason innings. Going with Burnett was a tactic consistent with that strategy. If they’d gone with Gaudin, it would have been altering the strategy because they felt comfortable with a 3-1 lead. In the World Series, no team should feel comfortable.
As the game played out, the tactic backfired. The strategy, however, remains strong. They knew that losing tonight was a possibility, but it was a possibility they’d be able to stomach knowing that their other two best pitchers, Pettitte and Sabathia, are waiting to take the ball. That’s the point. Even if the Phillies win a game or two, the Yankees still have their best guys waiting.
I know a lot of smart people who endorsed Gaudin for the Game 5 start, so I’ve given serious thought to the tactic. Each time I think about it, though, I’m less and less convinced. Even the morning after, I still think it was the right call to go with Burnett. Altering a strategy that works is hardly ever a good idea, especially when the alteration makes your team weaker. The Yanks made the right call. Unfortunately, as happens many times, it didn’t work out. Thankfully, the Yankees had planned for this.
(There’s obviously a question of Pettitte pitching on three days’ rest, but that’s another story, one we’ll surely discuss in the next two days.)
Burnett’s history of pitching on three days’ rest
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Tonight, in the first elimination game of the 2009 World Series, the Yankees will send A.J. Burnett to the mound on just three day’s rest. The tactic makes sense. The alternative is Chad Gaudin, who hasn’t started a game since late September and who has a well-documented deficiency when facing left-handed hitters. With such a significant drop-off between the Yankees third best starter, Andy Pettitte, and their fourth, Gaudin, the choice was not a difficult one.
Burnett has experience starting on three days’ rest, and most of it came in the 2008 season with Toronto. His performance in those games might have helped influence Joe Girardi’s decision, so let’s take a look at exactly what happened when Burnett took the mound a day earlier than normally scheduled.
July 4, 2004
Burnett underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2003 and made his return in June, 2004. He had a few blips, including a 4.1-inning, eight-run outing against Cleveland, but generally pitched well in his first month back. Unfortunately, the Marlins could not pick him up, losing each of Burnett’s six starts that month. This included back to back starts in which Burnett allowed just two runs over seven and eight innings.
On July 4, the Marlins called on Burnett to start on three days’ rest against the Tampa Bay Rays, against whom he had thrown the aforementioned eight-inning game. He didn’t pitch quite as well, allowing three runs over 7.2 innings, but it was enough to earn his first win of the season. He struck out six Devil Rays that day, including Carl Crawford to lead off the game. Atypical of Burnett, he also didn’t issue any walks — though Tampa Bay drew the fifth fewest walks of any MLB team that season.
It might seem strange for Burnett to start on three days’ rest so shortly after recovering from elbow surgery. That seems like the kind of move that could lead to a relapse. Burnett, however, had thrown just 30 pitches on June 30, leaving the game two batters into the second inning after allowing five hits and walking two. That light workload made the short-rest start make a bit more sense.
July 13, 2008
Burnett started off July 2008 with two horrible starts. In seven innings against the Angels on Independence Day, Burnett allowed eight runs, six earned, on 12 hits over seven innings. The next time out he allowed seven runs on seven hits and three walks over 5.1 innings to the Orioles. Why, then, would the Blue Jays bring back Burnet on there days’ rest to face the Yankees on July 13?
I’m not quite sure. It was the last game before the All-Star Break, so perhaps Cito Gaston didn’t want Burnett to have such a long layoff. Whatever the reason, it worked. Burnett took a shutout into the ninth inning, though Jason Giambi ruined it with a solo home run. B.J. Ryan came on after a Jorge Posada single to record the final two outs. Still, Burnett was magnificent, and it’s one of the reasons that the players lobbied the team to sign him over the off-season.
September 13, 2008
At the end of August, Burnett found him with quite the challenge. On the ledger for his final three starts of the month: the Yankees twice, with Boston in the middle. While the Blue Jays were out of the race, it was still an audition for both teams. He killed the Yankees, but faltered a bit against the Red Sox. He’d get his chance for redemption against them, though, as Gaston named him the starter on September, just three days after his seven-inning, one-run performance against the White Sox.
It wasn’t an easy six innings for Burnett, as he used 102 pitches, walking three. But at the end of the sixth he had allowed just one unearned run. The Blue Jays went to town, scoring eight runs in support of their free-agent-to-be, helping him pick up his 18th win of the season.
The phantom three days’ rest start — April 16, 2008
When looking up Burnett’s short-rest starts, I first went to his Baseball Reference splits page, where it says he has started four games on three days’ rest. Yet I found only three such games. It comes down to a nitpick: does a start count as being on three days’ rest when the previous appearance was in relief?
On April 16, 2008, then-Blue Jays manager John Gibbons called on Burnett to come into the 14th inning of a game at home against the Rangers. It was tied 5-5, and the Blue Jays needed some more innings out of a dwindling pen. He had last pitched on April 13, also against Texas, and didn’t pitch particularly well in that start, allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. It seemed curious that Gibbons would call on Burnett two days later, but he did and paid for it. Burnett allowed two runs on three hits and a walk in the 14th, leading to a 7-5 Blue Jays loss.
Then, three days later, Burnett came out to start against the Tigers. It was six days after his last start, but just three days after his last appearance. He allowed three runs over five innings, walking six in the game. It was easily his worst start on three days’ rest, yet the Blue Jays offense put him in line for the win, his second of the season (the first was against the Yankees in his first start of the season).
In a way, I don’t want to count it because the start on three days’ rest did not follow another start, but a relief appearance. Then again, Burnett did throw 24 pitches in that span, six short of the 30 he threw on June 30, 2004, which he followed with a start on three days’ rest. Is there much of a difference there? I thought so at first, but I’m not so sure after thinking it over some more.
None of this guarantees Burnett anything tonight. It proves that he’s physically capable of throwing on three days’ rest and succeeding, but that’s about it. Knowing his track record is a bit reassuring, at least.
That depends what the definitions of ‘any closer’ and ‘prove’ are
Posted by: | CommentsCharlie Manuel is a confident guy. He knows he has a good team, and when the press asks him he’s sure to tell them. When talking about opponents he doesn’t gush about their greatness or their achievements. For the most part, when talking about opponents, Manuel notes how his team is going to play well against them. Like with Andy Pettitte tonight. Manuel talked only about the negatives.
“Andy Pettitte, he’s a lot like anybody else who ages — his stuff is kind of starting to dwindle down.” What does it say, then, about Andy’s postseason performance to date? It’s hard to put up those kinds of numbers with dwindling stuff, no?
Here’s a stranger quote from Manuel. In it he makes two mistakes, and they’re big enough to warrant a mention:
“We can hit Rivera,” Manuel said. “We can hit any closer.
We’ve proved that. He’s good. He’s one of the best closers in baseball, if not the best. He’s very good. But I’ve seen our team handle good pitching and, you know, we’re definitely capable of scoring runs late in the game.”
The first two parts of that quote are incompatible. The second part might be true; the Phillies might be able to hit any closer. Mariano Rivera, as we’ve learned over the past decade and a half, is not any closer. This doesn’t even need further explanation. His postseason ERA is ridiculous for a reason. You can go hit Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton and that would be a good job. They’re good closers. But they’re not Rivera.
That’s not to say that you can’t hit Rivera. It has been done. But beating other closers doesn’t necessarily mean you can beat Mariano. He’s on a level unto his own. JoePos gets it.
The next part of Manuel’s quote is just strange. “We’ve proved that.” You’ve proved what? That you can beat other closers? That’s great, but as established above, every closers are not Mariano. You can’t assume you can hit him because you can hit other closers. And, in fact, Manuels team has not hit Rivera in limited experience. They managed one hit in one inning off him in the regular season, and then couldn’t score in two innings against him Thursday night.
Manuel’s players have never proved that they can hit Rivera. They are a collective 8 for 47 against him with one double. The only two players with more than 10 plate appearances are Raul Ibanez and Matt Stairs, and they have four hits in 30 at bats between them. That’s hardly proving anything. In fact, if it proves aything, it’s that the Phillies hitters have as hard a time hitting Rivera as any other team in the league.
The Phillies are a confident team. We get that. They think they can beat anyone, as any team in their position should. I just hope they don’t really think that because they can hit NL closers that they can hit Mariano Rivera. He’s proven in both the abstract and in the concrete that he’s a cut above. The Phillies will have as difficult a time with him as the rest of the league does.
