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The timing’s right for Raul
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Game-winner for Ibanez. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
That Raul Ibanez is off to a slow start comes with little surprise. His poor spring portended such a performance, as did his declining numbers the last two seasons in Philadelphia. The Yankees, we can only hope, did not expect a full recovery from Ibanez, who will turn 40 in just over a month. Instead they sought a serviceable player who could lend a hand for at least half the season.
At .250/.277/.409, Ibanez is looking a lot like his 2011 self. He oftentimes looks overmatched at the plate, as he did last night against Yu Darvish, unable to get his bat around on top-flight fastballs. So far he has been a half-run below average on offense, and his presence in the DH spot, or otherwise playing a poor outfield, further diminishes his value. Thankfully, there is a redeeming factor.
Ibanez has been at his worst in the most forgivable situations: no men on base. In his 21 bases empty PA he has gone 4 for 20 with a walk and no extra base hits. Yet when there have been men on he has put in his best effort. In 26 such PA he has gone 7 for 24 with all three of his extra base hits. As such, he’s been able to turn his 11 hits this season into 9 RBI. The fortuitous timing has made Ibanez more valuable in reality than his overall stat line indicates.
It’s normal, of course, for hitters to perform better with the pitcher in the stretch. This year AL hitters are OPSing 20 points better with men on than they are with the bases empty; in 2011 they hit .013 better with men on. Even still, Ibanez’s performance is out of line even with that disparity. That he’s hit all three of his extra base hits with men on base means a lot for the Yankees’ run scoring. We’d probably have a much more negative opinion of him if he’d hit a pair of solo homers and got stranded after a bases-empty double.
Just as we’d expect Ibanez to even out a bit, so we should expect the Yankees offense to do the same. They’re out of line with the league trend, OPSing just 9 points better with men on base than with the bases empty. That is, Ibanez has picked them up early on, when they needed the boost. Yet this doesn’t mean Ibanez will suddenly disappear. Remember, last year he was hitting .154/.238/.209 after 100 PA. From that point on he hit .264/.300/.462 in 474 PA. Those are no sterling numbers, but for $1.1 million the Yankees would probably take that.
It won’t be an easy year for Ibanez. He’s clearly a shell of his former self at the plate, and his previously poor defensive skills have completely eroded. But for a temporary solution to a vacant DH slot, the Yankees could have done worse. If the Yankees can squeeze just a little more well-timed value out of Ibanez, they can approach the trade deadline with an eye on acquiring a bat. That might sound a little cold, to eke as much value out of a guy as possible and then bid him goodbye, but that’s the reality of a team pursuing a championship.
Pitching problem? Don’t let the fielders off that easily
Posted by: | CommentsWhile the Yankees’ offense has gotten off to a roaring start, the starting pitching has yet to catch up. They’re allowing far too many hits to drop in, and then they’re allowing home runs on top of those hits. The result is an ERA, 5.72, that ranks third-worst in the majors. Their peripherals look a bit better, thanks to the third highest strikeout rate and a bottom-third walk rate, but they’re still getting plenty of runs dropped on them. Yet it might not be all their fault.
One pitching aspect that stands out is the starters’ BABIP. At .355 its not only worst in the league, but worst by more than 20 points. As I noted in this morning’s post on Freddy Garcia, the BABIP issue is not simply a matter of pure luck. There are other factors that play into this. While poor command is the likely culprit in Garcia’s high BABIP, that’s not necessarily true for the staff as a whole. In fact, part of that huge BABIP number isn’t the pitchers at all.
A quick look at Baseball Prospectus’s team defensive efficiency bears this out in a different way. The Yankees’ fielders in general fare worst in the majors in converting balls in play into outs. When BP adjusts for park effects and converts defensive efficiency into runs, the Yankees have allowed a half run more on defense than the next worst team. They are nearly 14 runs behind league-leading Toronto.
As you might imagine by this point, the infield plays a large role in in this defensive inadequacy. To wit, on ground balls Yankees pitchers have allowed a .309 BABIP against an AL average of .225. That’s not to say they’re any great shakes against fly balls. Against those they have a .196 BABIP vs. the league average of .136. The defensive woes stretch across the entire field. And it’s killing the pitching staff.
No, poor fielding isn’t the only culprit in these inflated BABIP numbers. As with Freddy, command in general is an issue. We saw CC Sabathia with little command of his fastball in his first two outings. Phil Hughes has left many hittable pitches right over the plate. Hiroki Kuroda struggled with his command in his last start against Minnesota. And there’s Garcia himself, of course. So some of the high BABIP is due to the pitchers leaving hittable pitches over the plate. After all, the bullpen BABIP is much lower, at .307, but that’s still well above league average.
(Other evidence for poor defense killing the Yankees includes a league-worst UZR and a fourth-worst DRS.)
The pitching staff has been rightly criticized through the season’s first month. The starters simply haven’t put it together yet. Unfortunately, their fielders are doing them no favors. Both the infielders and the outfielders are not converting balls in play into outs at an acceptable rate. Getting Brett Gardner back will help the outfield, but in the infield it’s tough to fathom a huge improvement. That could be something to watch as the staff regains its form. Can they overcome these fielding inadequacies?
NOTE: Say what you will about Nunez; I expect plenty of “infield defense will improve if they don’t play Nunez” comments. But the Yankees’ problem isn’t necessarily errors. In fact, according to UZR they’re actually in the positive in terms of errors. It’s in the range department that they’re getting killed.
Freddy’s men on base problem
Posted by: | CommentsLast year it felt as though Freddy Garcia possessed a remarkable ability to pitch his way out of a jam. When the going got tough, Freddy got going, amping up his arsenal and cutting down hitters when the situations mattered the most. It was through his performances with runners on base, with runners in scoring position, and in high-leverage situations that allowed him to keep his ERA shiny — and keep the Yanks out of trouble.
Here’s a quick breakdown of how Freddy fared in various situations.
| K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty | 13.7% | 6.7% | 1.04 | .310 |
| Men on Base | 17.5% | 6%* | 0.92 | .266 |
| RISP | 18% | 7.2%* | 0.64 | .205 |
| High Leverage | 12.5% | 4.2% | 0.00 | .100 |
*Unintentional walk rate
While the above data shows us why Garcia was able to maintain a 3.62 ERA against a 4.12 FIP and 4.36 xFIP, it also screams something to the SABR-influenced crowd: regression. Garcia’s performances when runs were at stake might have made his 2011 numbers look nice, but surely that’s not sustainable. Right? When we’re trying to project a pitcher’s numbers we should be looking for skills and not fluke performances. And so the Yankees’ decision to re-sign Garcia might appear a foolish one. How could they be so fooled by these fluky numbers?
Garcia’s situation presents one reason why you see less statistic-heavy work on RAB than you might have in the past. That is to say, there are many flaws in the SABR doctrine. A SABR-inclined analyst might come to the above conclusion, that Freddy got so incredibly lucky in specific situations last year that it simply could not last. Yet such analysis would be woefully incomplete without a reference point. Might it be that Garcia has excelled in these situations throughout his career? Turns out, that is exactly the case. Here are the same numbers, taken from Garcia’s 14-year career.
| K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty | 17.2% | 6.4% | 1.36 | .290 |
| Men on Base | 16.1% | 6.3%* | 0.96 | .284 |
| RISP | 17.6% | 7.7%* | 0.71 | .265 |
| High Leverage | 19.6% | 5.6% | 0.94 | .248 |
*Unintentional walk rate
Despite Garcia being a completely different pitcher today than he was in 2001, he still follows these trends. During the course of his entire career, comprising 8,861 batters faced, he has shown a knack for working out of jams. In fact, one of the only seasons in which he did not display these trends, 2010, was his first full season after undergoing labrum and rotator cuff surgeries. Once he familiarized himself with his new limitations, he went right back to his old trends. (That’s my narrative, and I’m sticking to it.)
This year Garcia is demonstrating similar, though not altogether the same, trends. He’s striking out more hitters with men on base than he is with the bases empty. He’s walking fewer. Both of his two home runs allowed have come with the bases empty. The killer, however, is BABIP. He’s allowed a .524 BABIP with men on base, and .471 with men in scoring position. He has a mere 47.2 percent strand rate. Absolutely nothing is going Freddy’s way this season.
While we should expect Freddy’s BABIP numbers to fall, it’s not because he’s merely getting unlucky. In his three starts Garcia has displayed a marked lack of command. It’s not as bad as his debut, in which he let loose five wild pitches. But his command is nowhere near the level it was last year. For Garcia, 35, that should be something he finds soon enough. And when he does, his performances will significantly improve. As long as nothing is wrong physically, it should just be a matter of patience.
Chances are Garcia has already pitched himself out of the rotation with these first three starts. Hell, he might have been out of a spot since the day Andy Pettitte announced his comeback. Until then, though, the Yankees can display some patience with Garcia. Unless something physical is hampering his command, he should be able to trot out there every five days and turn in quality performances, as he did in 2011.
The RAB Radio Show: April 20, 2012
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With another week of baseball in the books we have plenty to talk about. We basically covered all of the Yanks flaws and strengths in this episode, going from the shaky starting pitching to the lights-out bullpen, to the consistent, if frustrating, offense. It’s been quite a few weeks, and things will only get better from here.
Podcast run time 46:58
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Hughes’s secondary pitch problem
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(Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Tonight Phil Hughes takes the mound in a pretty big start during a pretty big season for him. We all know the story, so there’s no need to rehash. He’s probably not in immediate danger of losing his rotation spot; the Yankees will likely wait for Andy Pettitte and Michael Pineda to make any non-injury changes. But he’s already dug himself a hole, and if he doesn’t start climbing out of it tonight it might be too late. The hole might be too deep by the time Pettitte and Pineda are ready.
If we can take one thing away from Hughes’s first two starts it’s that his four-seam fastball is in peak form. He’s thrown it nearly 60 percent of the time, which shows you how much he relies on it. The results have been there in a way, as he’s getting swings and misses more than a quarter of the time when the batter swings. He’s also inducing some poor contact, getting a pop-up 30 percent of the time when hitters put the ball in play. It’s when he turns away from his fastball that he runs into heaps of trouble.
When he turned pro, Hughes featured a slider that Baseball America said had “good bite and depth.” The projected it to be at least average. In 2005, however, the Yankees had him scrap that slider for a curveball. That seems odd, to take away an effective and projectable pitch. But that turned out as well as possible. In an oft-quoted line, Baseball America said before the 2007 season: “Hughes’ greatest accomplishment as a pro has been to forsake his slider in favor of a knockout curveball, which is more of a strikeout pitch and produces less stress on his arm.” Yet in recent years that curveball has faded considerably.
In recent years Hughes actually dumped the 1-to-7 breaking ball for a knuckle curve, a la A.J. Burnett and Mike Mussina. Last year, during his struggles, he switched back to the straight grip on the curve. It hasn’t helped him much. Part of the problem is that he’s rarely throwing the pitch. He’s thrown just 33 curveballs this year, compared to 32 cutters, 28 changeups, and 142 four-seamers. But what’s most striking about the curveball is its complete ineffectiveness to date.
For starters, hitters are rarely swinging at old Uncle Charlie. Of the 33 times he’s thrown it, they’ve swung 12 times and taken 21 — 11 balls and 10 strikes. Of those 12 swings he’s generated zero misses. That is, every time he’s gone to bury a curveball in the dirt, the hitter has laid off. Even worse, the Pitch F/X data has recorded four line drives out of seven balls put in play. We’re dealing with a sample of only 18 hitters, but it sure seems as though those 18 hitters saw Hughes’s curve very well.
The changeup hasn’t been that effective for Hughes, either. He’s thrown more of them, as shown above, which is a good start. But he has little control of it, as 15 of the 28 times he’s thrown it the batter has taken it for a ball. He has generated four swings and misses, however, so he does stand some chance of getting guys to chase it. While it’s tough to make the comparison, since he’s thrown the fastball five times more often than the changeup, his swing and miss percentage is roughly the same with both pitches. Of course, the fastball has been called for a ball roughly half as frequently as the changeup.
It’s understandable why Hughes has gone to his four-seamer so often. He can overpower hitters with it, as he throws it high in the zone with late life. But he can’t continue throwing it almost 60 percent of the time and expect to succeed in the rotation. He’s going to have to get that curveball going if he wants to stand a chance. The changeup will have to come along as well. If not, Hughes could find himself in the bullpen for good, at least in pinstripes, come early May. That’s usually where they send guys who rely on just one or two good pitches.
Yanks welcome Jason Marquis to the AL
Posted by: | CommentsToday on NJ.com, Marc Carig posted a quick hit on Hiroki Kuroda’s stance on hitting. When asked if he missed taking at-bats in the National League, Kuroda replied, “I don’t miss it at all.” Tonight Kuroda will make his third American League start, and he’ll be going against a fellow newcomer to the Junior Circuit. Jason Marquis has spent parts of 12 seasons in the NL, starting with the Braves and moving onto the Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, Nationals, and Diamondbacks. Now, at age 33, he makes is AL debut. Life could get a bit rougher for him, too.
Like Kuroda, Marquis won’t miss holding a bat. In 625 career PA he’s a .197/.216/.283 hitter. In the last three seasons he’s gone 22 for 132, a .167 average, with just two walks. The only problem, however, is that while Marquis himself will not hold a bat, he also won’t face any opposing pitchers. That could be quite an issue for the low-strikeout Marquis.
For his career Marquis has struck out 974 of 7328 total batters faced, or a paltry 13.3 percent. Yet of those 974 strikeouts, 173 have come against the opposing pitcher. That amounts to 18 percent of his career strikeouts. Moreover, his career strikeout rate against pitchers is 33.1 percent, against 11.8 percent against non-pitchers. Last year only three qualified pitchers had strikeout rates below 11.8 percent: Jeff Francis, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny. The results there weren’t particularly pretty.
What’s worse for Marquis is that his strikeout rate has declined since his mid-20s. From his age-21 through his age-25 seasons he struck out 16 percent of opposing batters. But from his age-26 through his age-32 seasons he has struck out just just 12.1 percent of all batters. Again, combined with his strikeout rate against pitchers — 30 percent since 2005 — it adds up to trouble when facing pitcher-less AL lineups. That goes doubly for a high-powered offense such as the Yankees.
From all appearances, Marquis seems set up to fail. He’s a lifetime NL pitcher who has a hard time generating swings and misses in the first place. Now he’s moving to the AL, where he not only has no pitcher on whom to pick, but also a full-time hitter with whom to contend. It makes me wonder whether we’re in store for what Mike terms a reverse lock. Are the Yanks so well match against Marquis that they’re destined for failure? I damn well hope not. This is one guy the Yanks should pound on and pick up a relatively easy victory against.
Derek Jeter Facts
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Touch em all, Derek, it's your time to shine. (Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Father Time caught up with Derek Jeter years ago, but didn’t have the heart to tell him.
We could spend all day coming up with Derek Jeter facts, and I’m sure we’d have a ball doing so. You know what’s more fun, though? Ticking off actual Derek Jeter facts — things he’s done in the first 10 games of the season and how they stack up to his personal history and the league. For instance:
Derek Jeter hit his third home run of the season last night. It took him 29 games to hit his first home run last year (and his second), and he had played in 67 games before hitting his third.
Only 10 players this season have hit more home runs than Derek Jeter. Last year 235 players hit more home runs than Derek Jeter, including Brett Gardner.
Derek Jeter has more hits than any other player in the American League.
It took Derek Jeter 18 games to reach 17 hits last year. This year he’s done it in just 10.
Of the 42 balls Jeter has put in play this year, 17 have been in the air, or 41 percent. He hasn’t put more than 40 percent of his balls in play in the air since 2009.
Jeter’s 33.3% HR/FB ratio won’t regress.*
*Not an actual fact.
Derek Jeter has not popped up a pitch to an infielder this year.
A newfound spring in his step has enabled Jeter to beat out two infield singles so far.
Think this is wholly unsustainable? Derek Jeter’s current BABIP of .359 is just four points more than his career BABIP, and is nine points lower than his 2009 BABIP.
While he’s swinging at the same percentage of pitches as he did last year and in 2010, he’s missing far less often: just 5.3 percent, compared to 6.9 percent in 2011 and 6.7 percent in 2010.
Derek Jeter has already produced 5.2 runs above average at the plate. He produce d7.6 runs above average last year. After park adjustments, Jeter has produced 5.0 runs above average this year, after producing 5.5 last year.
In an up-and-down start to the season, Jeter has provided quite the bright spot for the Yankees. What makes his hot start even better is that it continues the surge that started when he returned from the DL last year. Since then he has 357 PA and has hit .337/.387/.477. While there’s a good chance he’ll slow down at some point this year — he will turn 38 in June, after all — his hot start has renewed faith in his continued ability to remain effective at a time when most shortstops have packed it up and called it a career. We might not see these Derek Jeter facts all season, so let’s enjoy them while they’re fresh.
On Russell Martin’s importance to the pitching staff
Posted by: | CommentsAfter the season the Yankees will have a tough choice to make. Do they allocate the payroll to sign Russell Martin, or do they let him walk and hope that Austin Romine can jump into the job? Since they do have the $189 million payroll goal, signing Martin might be difficult to justify. But, given his value to the team, especially on defense, they might find that a necessary investment. Just how valuable is Martin on defense? Anna Martin at ESPN’s Sweet Spot has a story today examining the various ways Martin works with his pitching staff. It includes the pitch-framing data we’ve discussed at length since last year, but it also talks about the more subtle aspects of the pitcher-catcher relationship. It’s definitely a quality read.
The RAB Radio Show: April 13th, 2012
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We’re through a week of baseball, so we have plenty to talk about. And it was an especially eventful week for the Yankees. Seriously, there’s little need for bullet points on this one. If it happened this week, we talked a bunch about it. From the rotation shakiness to the RISP woes to the shutdown bullpen. It’s all here on The RAB Radio Show.
Podcast run time 43:28
Here’s how you can listen to podcast:
- Download the RAB Radio Show by right clicking on that link and choosing Save As.
- Listen in your browser by left clicking the above link or using the embedded player below.
- Subscribe in iTunes. If you want to rate us that would be great. If you leave a nice review I’ll buy you a beer at a meet-up.
- Subscribe to the RAB Radio Show RSS feed
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Intro music: “Die Hard” courtesy of reader Alex Kresovich. Thanks to Tyler Wilkinson for the graphic.
Could Jeter’s successor already be on the Yankees’ roster?
Posted by: | CommentsEvery incarnation of the Yankees has its polarizing players. For some reason, swaths of fans flock to disparage certain players, while others rush to their defenses. In the mid-00s A-Rod was perhaps the most polarizing player on the Yankees. Elite player? Sure. But he was portrayed as a bad teammate — one who, according to so many fans, would never win a World Series with the Yankees. While A-Rod is still polarizing in some ways, it’s not nearly to the level it was before 2009. Now fans are out to fry smaller fish.
While Nick Swisher has his detractors, he is not the most polarizing player on the Yankees. No, that distinction belongs to Eduardo Nunez, a mere utility infielder. His potential — Baseball America ranked him their No. 8 Yankees prospect before last season — tantalizes some. His on-field blunders, including 20 errors in under 1,000 defensive innings last season, infuriates others. There appears to be little gray area in between.
Love him or hate him, though, the Yankees clearly think he can be part of their future. They’re trying to get him as much playing time as possible this year, using their lack of a regular DH to rotate players and get Nunez time in the field. The idea is to determine his value to them in the future, which they cannot do if he’s playing in AAA or getting irregular reps in the majors. For his part, Nunez is making the most of the opportunity.
In today’s Wall Street Journal, Dan Barbarisi writes about Nunez’s desire to succeed Derek Jeter as the Yankees’ everyday shortstop. He certainly gave his all this off-season, joining Robinson Cano bright and early for all-day workouts. In the process Cano has altered Nunez’s view of what it takes to be a big leaguer. For Nunez — whom Barbarisi describes as having “physical ability, smarts and talent” — it could be just the wake-up call he needs to take the next step.
The story actually comes full-circle in terms of polarizing Yankees. A-Rod, who polarized like none other early in his Yankees career, once took a young Cano under his wing. At a time when Cano’s focus was waning, A-Rod showed him the path to greatness. Cano has since put in his work, and the results are visible. Now Cano has turned his own attentions towards Nunez. Can Cano have the same effect on his protege as A-Rod had on his?
Replacing Jeter is no small task. There’s not only the legendary shoes that Nunez has to step into, but there is the sheer ability that Jeter possesses even to this day. His skills in decline, Jeter has figured out a way to hit better than most of his peers at an age when most of them have declined to the point of on-field uselessness. Nunez’s hard work doesn’t guarantee his ability to step into that role, but it does give him another leg up. He’ll need every one of them if he’s to one day become the Yankees’ starting shortstop.
Ben’s Take: I read the Barbarisi article this morning and had a few thoughts of my own considering the way last night’s game played out. Joe Girardi removed A-Rod for Nunez as a pinch-runner in the 8th, and Nunez took over at third base in the 8th. He nearly threw away a grounder during the Orioles’ half of the inning. When the Yankees took the lead in the 10th, Girardi removed Nunez for Eric Chavez, a superior fielder.
On the one hand, the move made sense. Chavez in his prime was a Gold Glove third baseman with a stellar arm, and he’s the guy you would want manning the hot corner when outs are at a premium. On the other hand, the Yankees removed their primary back-up infielder for defensive purposes late in the game last night. I don’t think I had ever seen that happen before.
To me, then, the question becomes: What do you do with Eduardo Nunez? The Yanks clearly have high hopes for the future, and he has a lot of raw ability. Yet, he’s become a worrisome liability in the field, not quite at the Chuck Knoblauch level but not a guy who has earned late-inning trust. The Yanks want to keep him at the Big League level, but just maybe he’d be better off playing the infield everyday in the minors while working on his throwing. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen to Nunez or the Yanks.
