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Severino, Tanaka Slide to Success Against Jays

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(Getty)

2018’s opening series against the Blue Jays has been nothing short of eventful. Giancarlo Stanton belted two homers in his Yankee debut. Aaron Hicks sustained an injury and was put on the DL. Two games later, his replacement–Billy McKinney–is heading there, too. Aaron Judge played center field. Adam Warren got hit with a comebacker. Dellin Betances had a hiccupy game. Potentially lost in all of that are the performances of two of the three Yankee starters in the series thus far, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka.

Combined, the two allowed just one run in 11.2 innings on just four hits, three walks (all from Severino), while collecting 15 strikeouts. Both pitchers looked dominant for the majority of their starts and Tanaka ended his outing after retiring 13 straight batters. We could probably quibble with the relatively quick hooks Aaron Boone had with them, but this early in the year, I’m okay with it. Aside from results, Sevy and Masa had something else in common: how they attacked a mostly right-handed Blue Jay lineup.

In 2017, Luis Severino became a true three-pitch pitcher as he mixed in his changeup with more frequency and had great success with it. Throughout his career, Masahiro Tanaka has used multiple pitches as out pitches, but has generally leaned on his splitter. Both a changeup and a splitter, though, are not necessarily as effective against same-handed batters, so both pitchers relied on something more traditional in a R/R matchup: the slider.

Between the two of them, Severino (34) and Tanaka (31), threw 65 sliders to the Jays’ righties. Those sliders induced 37 swings from the hitters, who whiffed 16 times out of the 37. Only three of the sliders to righties were put into play–all from Tanaka–and none of them led to a hit.

Severino did a great job locating his slider down and away to righties, as well as down and in. Tanaka did as well, though he focused mainly on the ‘low and away’ part of the equation. If there were a textbook about pitching, these two performances would be in the ‘how to use sliders against righties’ chapter. Both executed nearly flawlessly against same-handed batters and the results show it.

Going forward, I’d expect both pitchers to use this strategy over and over again when they face heavily right handed lineups like Toronto’s. They’ll need to be wary, though, of still keeping their other out pitches sharp for when they face lefty-heavy or more balanced lineups. Given the talent level of these two, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.

Weighing First Base Options

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Austin. (Presswire)

The end of the week was not a kind one from the Baseball Gods. The Dodgers’ Justin Turner has a broken wrist. Madison Bumgarner of the Giants was hit with a comebacker and has a broken left hand. Chris Sale got a similar scare on his leg, but is no worse for wear. Most importantly, though, from our pinstriped perspective, is that Greg Bird has right foot inflammation and will see a specialist on Monday. Insert upside down smiling emoji here. Hopefully the visit on Monday is just routine and Bird is cleared to begin the season with his teammates on Thursday. If not, let’s consider the options.

Assuming Bird hits the DL, the Yankees will go with a one-for-one roster spot swap. To the DL would go Bird and up to the big club would come Tyler Austin or Billy McKinney. Neil Walker, a switch hitter with way more Major League experience than any other potential player, would also likely be called upon to play first.

The most likely scenario I see is a first base platoon of Walker and Austin, with Walker playing there against right handed pitchers, allowing Tyler Wade to fill in at second. This helps keep the Yankees on the right side of the platoon matchup and maintains good defense at second with Wade. Should they roll with McKinney, who had a powerful spring training, he would play first against righties (lefty hitter) with Walker there against lefties and Ronald Torreyes at second.

The drop off from a Bird + Walker lineup to anything else is pretty big, regardless of the details of who’s playing where and when, but of those two options, I prefer the Walker/Austin pair, even if I like McKinney more than I like Austin at this point. The  potential difference between those two is smaller than the potential difference between Wade and Torreyes.

The timing of this is bad–when isn’t an injury poorly timed?–but the Yankees are well positioned to absorb this blow. Bird’s power and patience will be missed, but the Yankees also have plenty of that spread throughout the lineup. With any luck, this will all be academic and the results of Bird’s consultation will bear good news. If this does go south, it’ll be another letdown for Bird and for us. He’s never been a disappointment when healthy, but these injuries are beyond that.

Yankee Prop Bets

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(Presswire)

We’re almost there. Opening Day is close enough that we can almost taste it. We’d probably be able to do so much better if not for the ever-more-stale aftertaste of Spring Training lingering on our tongues. Almost every story that could be written or thought of has been written or thought of and I’m sure I speak for everyone when I say “Just start the damn season already, please!” In that anticipatory spirit, let’s try something a little fun to keep us on edge as we wait for Opening Day: prop bets.

Over/Under

If you don’t know how this works, I’m going to put out a number for a player or players and you have to predict whether the total will be over or under that total. Let’s start with the obvious:

Over/Under 120.5 home runs for Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez. This one, for however fun it is to dream on, is a bit tough. It essentially breaks down to 50, 40, 30 for each player. For those home run totals, things have to go very right in terms of performance and health. But, given how each guy produced last year, it’s a very doable number. My heart says over; my head says just under–but still a lot of dingers!

Over/Under: 875.5 innings from the Yankees Opening Day rotation (Luis Severino; Masahiro Tanaka; Sonny Gray; CC Sabathia; Jordan Montgomery). This is another reasonable target, with a slightly decreasing innings total from player to player, based loosely on ZiPS projections. However, I’m going to go under here as such a total would require extreme health for all these guys. All of them will carry some sort of injury risk going in and that’ll keep them from this innings total. Obvious statement is obvious, but if they do meet or exceed this number, there’ll be little stopping the Yankees.

First in Line

Let’s (theoretically) bet on which player will be called up to the Majors first. If you told me earlier that Jacoby Ellsbury would be banged up this close to the start of the season, I’d’ve wagered on Clint Frazier for sure. However, given that he, too, is injured, I don’t think we’ll see him anytime soon in the Bronx, sadly. Clint, on the off chance you’re reading this, we’re all pulling for you to get better.

Knowing the Yankees, we’ll see the Scranton Shuttle started up rather quickly, so the smart money is on a pitcher. But, if the team opts to go north with just a three man bench, there will be plenty of pitchers available in the bullpen, partially negating the necessity for call ups and send downs.

I’m going to go out on a limb here, though, and say that the first call up is going to be none other than Kyle Higashioka. Call it random chance–it will be–but maybe Austin Romine gets dinged by a foul ball and needs to take some time off. Come on up, Higgy; hope it goes better for you than last time did.

The regular season is around the corner. It’s funny how time works when we’re waiting for baseball, isn’t it? This little stretch of time takes so long, but soon, it’ll be June and we’ll ask ourselves about where March, April, and May went. Soon, we won’t need to pass the time with frivolities like this. Until then, though, let’s keep speculating and dreaming about this team. It’s going to be a lot of fun.

Three Gentle Reminders

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Clint. (Presswire)

Clint Frazier, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Tyler Wade all started 2018 in different situations with regards to their status as Yankee players. Frazier and Ellsbury were the odd men out of a suddenly hyper-stacked outfield that included the AL Rookie of the Year (and should’ve been MVP) and the National League MVP. To boot, Ellsbury’s big contract meant Frazier would be sent back to AAA, at least for a little while. Wade, meanwhile, had a legitimate shot at the second base job, even with a top prospect in the running. Bringing in Brandon Drury made that shot even more legitimate, as he seems more attached to third base than second.

All that sure stuff, though, is fleeting. We remind ourselves that in times of great depth, things tend to sort themselves out and the picture becomes more clear, if more shallow. In the outfield, that seems to be happening now and it almost happened in the infield yesterday when Tyler Wade appeared to be inches away from snapping his wrist; watching it live, I thought he broke it for sure. Even though Wade is apparently fine, it was still another reminder that baseball will get in the way of any of our best laid plans or anticipations.

The Yankees are deep and could weather most scenarios–even disaster ones–better than most teams could. Times like the last two weeks remind us of the long haul we have ahead. We’re ready for real baseball, but the great offseason the Yankees had and the relatively smooth time in Spring Training have maybe colored our glasses a little pinstripe-rosy. Baseball season is long. Baseball season is grueling. What has happened to Clint Frazier is a reminder of how cruel the game can be.

With Wade, if he’s fine, the Yankees should just have him jump back in. Whatever he’s doing this spring is working perfectly. With Ellsbury and Frazier, though, the Yankees should be cautious and take their time. There are worse fourth outfielders than Ellsbury, and the Yankees may be forced to use one. Billy McKinney has some upside and has been performing nobly in camp, but it’s likely that Ellsbury’s more reliable at this point. Frazier is important to the present and future of the organization and we’ve seen the likes of Ryan Church and Justin Morneau ruined by concussions in the past; it would behoove the Yankees to treat Red Thunder with the kiddiest of kid gloves until he’s 100% right.

These injuries shouldn’t fully tamp down our excitement for this season, but be gentle reminders to us–as gentle as injuries can be–of how much there is left to go and how many obstacles the team will have to navigate in the coming months. It’s doubtful we’ve forgotten about that at all, given what’s happened to Greg Bird in the last two seasons, but sometimes, a reminder is necessary. Let’s cross our fingers that this is the only one.

Deeply Comfortable

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Bird and Judge. (Presswire)

At its most basic state, the Yankee lineup is formidable enough. Assuming Gleyber Torres makes the team out of Spring Training, the weak spots in the lineup are his and Brandon Drury’s. Think about that for a moment. The potential weak spots a pitcher will get to land on are occupied by a global top-5 prospect and a guy with a career .169 ISO. Even if Torres doesn’t make the team, Drury and someone else will be the not-so-strong spots, and those options all have something desirable; Miguel Andujar has power. Tyler Wade can take a walk and steal a bag. Ronald Torreyes has good contact skills.

Pulling back to incorporate the outfield, the Yankees have six players capable of being starting-caliber outfielders. Behind their rotation, the Yankees have three pitchers with blow-you-away stuff in Domingo German, Domingo Acevedo, and Albert Abreu. Even beyond them, they have top-100 prospects in Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams, not to mention Luis Cessa. The back of the bullpen could and would be the front for most teams. Jonathan Holder, Ben Heller, and Gio Gallegos would probably be mainstays in most MLB bullpens.

Despite Aaron Boone’s declarations, it’s hard to believe the Yankees aren’t in some market for pitching to add to their already decent rotation depth. If they add someone, it’ll be another concerted effort at buttressing against injury and/or poor performance. Late last week, the Yankees made a depth move, signing first baseman Adam Lind to a minor league deal, presumably as Greg Bird insurance. Lind is a solid bat who, in a normal market, would probably be on someone’s Major League roster without having to try out for it. If Bird goes down, there are few others who could fill in as well as Lind could and would.

The Yankees are well supplied at most every position. Granted, the catcher’s spot doesn’t quite fit that bill, but how many teams–absent the Dodgers–are able to have quality depth there? There are going to be storms that will need to be weathered throughout the season, as they always are, and the Yankees are in a great position to do so. At the very least, they have upside in many places where holes could form. So long as there isn’t some nightmare, Armageddon scenario in which everyone important gets hurt at exactly the same time, they’ll be alright.

The Lineup Considered — Again

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(Presswire)

The acquisition of Brandon Drury has added infield depth, even more than the Yankees had going into Spring Training. He joins Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres in vying for a starting position somewhere in the infield. That’s a lot of guys for two starting spots and two bench spots before even considering Danny Espinosa, Jace Peterson, and Thairo Estrada. Despite the options, the assumption over the last few days is that Drury will end up the starting third baseman, which would relegate Andujar to Scranton. Let’s take a look at how this might impact the Yankee lineup, as well as some other permutations that are now necessarily Drury-inclusive.

The top of the lineup really won’t change much. It’ll be Brett Gardner followed by some combination of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird. With that top five to carry the load, the pressure will definitely be off the lower two-thirds of the lineup. Slotting the lower half of the order is slightly more puzzling in that there are players with some question marks in the group. Is Didi Gregorius’ 25 homer power for real? Can Aaron Hicks be healthy and productive all season? How will one of — or both — Torres and Andujar adjust to and handle a full year of Major League pitching? Will Drury capitalize on his decent power — .177 career ISO — and become an average Major League hitter? These challenges, though, provide Aaron Boone with a little bit of freedom. He can justify batting these players anywhere in the lower half of the lineup with a decent argument to be made for each one — though it would be shocking if Hicks or Gregorius batted ninth.

To return to our Drury focus, let’s take a look at the three different possibilities with platoon matchups considered: 1) Drury at third with Torres sent down and Wade/Torreyes platooning; 2) Drury in a 2B platoon with Tyler Wade, which also assumes Torres is sent down; 3) Drury on the bench, assuming both Torres and Andujar make the team out of Spring Training.

Order v R Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
6 Gregorius Gregorius Gregorius
7 Hicks Hicks Hicks
8 Drury Andujar Andujar
9 Wade Wade Torres
Order v L Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
6 Hicks Hicks Hicks
7 Drury Drury Gregorius
8 Gregorius Gregorius Andujar
9 Torreyes Andujar Torres

Drury doesn’t have much of a platoon split in his career — 99 wRC+ vs. LHP; 94 vs. RHP. He does offer slightly more power against lefties than against righties — a .194 ISO vs. a (still respectable) .169. It’s a small difference and Didi does fine against lefties, so you could swap their positions in the order and things wouldn’t change much. The same goes for the rookies Andujar and Torres; swapping them in the eight/nine spots won’t make too much of a difference.

It’s clear that the Yankees have a good problem on their hands — it’s likely they’ll have nine hitters in the lineup who are, at the least, competent. Even if they go with Torres and Andujar — who have one Major League start between them — there’s upside at every position in the batting order. This was true even without Drury on the team, but he gives them an extra option. These scenarios with “too many players” seem to work themselves out. The more fallbacks, the better. Even with those fallback options, though, this team will hit. And it’s easy to  take the stance of Giancarlo Stanton: I feel bad for the baseballs.

Stepping Up: Aaron Hicks in 2018

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(Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

I’ve been a part time player, so to speak, a lot in my life. Before landing a full-time job in the summer of 2016, I was something of a migrant teacher. In Connecticut, between April of 2013 and June of 2016, I taught in five schools, never for more than a year at a time, as a long-term substitute. I taught every grade from 7-12, with the exception of 8th, going through myriad curricula, from creative writing to world literature, and everything in between. And all the while, I never felt settled until I got my chance at a full time job. If you’ll allow me a stretch–as you so often do–the situation I was in is vaguely analogous to that of Aaron Hicks.

After missing all of July and having a very ‘meh’ return to the field in August and beyond, Hicks is slotted to be the Yankees’ center fielder this year from the jump, as opposed to having to play a bench role or usurp an established starter as was the case in 2016 and 2017. Hicks is a switch hitter and a solid defender, bonuses on top of his youth relative to his competition, not counting Clint Frazier (who’s not really competition anyway); he still has upside left, unlike Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Despite appearing in every season since 2013, Hicks has never had more than 361 PA in a season, which he notched both in 2016 and 2017. In 2016, that came in 123 games; last year, it came in only 81, showing the trajectory of his career from bench player into starter. This year, barring injury, he’ll pass both of those marks, assuming health.

Hicks brings a patient approach at the plate and adds pop, too. He also plays a good outfield and has a rocket for an arm. This is just about everything you’d want in a center fielder. Additionally, if his Instagram account is anything to be believed, Hicks has worked incredibly hard this offseason to make this a healthy and productive season.

All of this is a long way to say that Aaron Hicks is a player we can all be rooting for to take the spotlight in 2018. Though he can–and hopefully will–produce, the pressure won’t necessarily be on him to do so, given the other bats in the lineup. After injuries and waiting in line, Hicks is in a good position to enhance his career and take a big step, just like the club he’s a part of.