Author Archive
Tempering expectations for David Adams
Posted by: | Comments
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
Chris Nelson‘s brief tenure in pinstripes has come to a rather unceremonious end. Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez continue their respective paths to recovery. All of this adds up to a golden opportunity for rookie third baseman David Adams to showcase his skills for fans and scouts alike.
Adams, who was drafted in the third round by the Yankees back in 2008, has had some positive moments during his time in the minors. In 2012 he hit .306/.385/.450 (.377 wOBA, 133 wRC+) over 383 plate appearances with the Yankees AA affiliate after missing substantial time during the couple years prior. Up until a few nights ago when he got the call from the Yankees, he was hitting a fairly gaudy .316/.407/.490 (.407 wOBA, 153 wRC+) over 113 plate appearances in AAA. What’s more, the kid managed to get a hit during his big league debut and doubled in a run in his second game. Unfortunately, as I alluded too in Thursday’s RAB Live Chat and in the post’s title, my expectations for Adams are fairly tempered. Here’s why I think yours should be too.
1. It’s really hard to succeed in the Major Leagues in general. It’s really, really hard to sustain success once you do succeed. It’s especially hard for a young (and in this case, non-elite) prospect to join a MLB franchise and immediately have an impact with sustained success — especially when said player knows he’s probably a stopgap (though with Youk and A-Rod, the timetable may prove more substantial). This first point is kind of obvious, but I feel as though it’s still a point we fail to remember all too often regardless of the player’s pedigree.
2. Offensively, Adams displayed an advanced approach at the plate with good gap power during his time in the minors. He won’t be facing minor league pitchers anymore though. He’ll be facing experienced arms, and he’ll have to make the necessary adjustments as his weaknesses get exposed. This is not to say he can’t or won’t have an effective bat, just that we shouldn’t be overly surprised if his production deflates. One need only remember Jesus Montero for an example of an offensively potent minor leaguer who has been unable to adjust. Small mechanical flaws become big points of vulnerability. It happens, and it happens more often than not.
3. Adams was recruited as an above-average second baseman defensively. The ankle injuries have robbed him of his mobility, so much so the team moved him to third (although that may have also been partially influenced by A-Rod’s injury), where’s he’s also viewed as defensively mediocre if not substandard. If Adams struggles at the plate, his defense will be that much more important, and unfortunately for him, that much more scrutinized. The Yankees cannot afford to have a black hole in the line up — they’ll need Adams to prove himself capable at least in this department.
Note by Mike: I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Adams’ defense so far. He’s no Adrian Beltre, but he’s been rock solid. At this point he’s probably the best defensive third baseman in the organization.
4. The injuries scare the crap out of me, quite frankly. Basically, since joining the organization, Adams has had a hell of a time staying on the field. Aside from showing dubious durability, he’s missed valuable developmental time — so much so the Yankees released him altogether to make room on the roster for Vernon Wells. In fact, at one point, he was playing four games in a row with a day off on the fifth during his time in the minors. The daily grind won’t get any easier with the Yankees. If he’s going to obtain a contract with a Major League team, he’s going to need prove himself capable of staying on the field — a trait often underappreciated.
Now, please don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to come across as completely bearish on Adams. As I noted above, he does have a solid approach at the plate, and the team will give him every opportunity to succeed. Plus he seems like a fun player to root for. Frankly, I hope he proves me dead wrong and thrives because that’d be awesome; it’d give the team options to consider on a lot of different levels. The point I’m trying to make here is that we shouldn’t endorse one of our home grown kids too heartily until he has some time to establish himself — honestly, the same should probably be said about all prospects in general.
RAB Live Chat
Posted by: | Comments
Death Strength by Bullpen
Posted by:
| Comments
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
Don’t look now, but the Yankees bullpen has been really good of late. Before Brett Marshall bit the bullet last night, they amassed the fifth highest cumulative WAR (1.8) in Major League Baseball — trailing only the Rockies, Tigers, White Sox, and Twins. Over 133.2 innings, the Yankees relief core has produced a 9.42 K/9 rate, surrendered only 2.53 BB/9 and 0.95 HR/9, complimented by a 3.33 ERA (3.24 FIP / 3.18 xFIP). Let’s take a look at some of the big contributors.
It all begins and ends with Mo
After missing most of the 2012 campaign, Mariano has returned with a vengeance. He’s already accumulated 16 saves (with no blown opportunities). His velocity has primarily sat in the 88-92 mph range, while his patented cutter continues dominate. To say right handed batters have had slightly more success against The Sandman would be true (.307 wOBA). However, to say that any batter has been generally successful overall against Mo this season would be false (.205 wOBA overall). When the ninth arrives, so does Mo, without compromise and in vintage form.
Girardi’s (setup) crew
The road to Mo is also pretty well paved. David Robertson has embraced his duties as the official set up man while Joba Chamberlain has handled the seventh fairly effectively (prior to injury). I really can’t get enough of Robertson either. Even though he occasionally puts me on edge with his Houdini act, his strikeout rate is certainly prolific (11.02/9). What’s more, 55.6% of his first pitches are thrown for strikes, and interesting enough, batters have swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone (33.3%) then they have in the past against him (career 25.2 O-Swing%) so far. As for Joba, his 6.75 K/9 and 5.79 BB/9 peripherals aren’t quite where you’d like them to be overall. However, prior to straining his right oblique, Joba had been looking increasingly comfortable on the mound. More importantly, his velocity seems to be right where it should be considering he isn’t all that far removed from Tommy John surgery.
Behold! The obligatory LOOGY
After pitching in 80 (!) games last season, I was pretty confident Boone Logan was going to be toast this season. I was thinking back to the days of Joe Torre when guys like Paul Quantrill, Tanyon Sturtze, Tom Gordon and Scott Proctor had their arms basically turned into mush. Early on this season, it sure appeared to be heading in that direction too. Give old Boone credit though. He has pitched in 10.1 innings, and managed a 2.61 ERA (3.79 FIP, 2.39 xFIP) with a 10.45 K/9 rate. That’ll do. Curiously, for a guy who’s primary function is to get left handers out, he’s actually shown more of a reverse split (.352 vs. 349 wOBA). I suspect this more of a byproduct though of a small sample size, and will probably normalize over the course of the season.
(Nick Laham/Getty)
The other guys
The Yankees have also found productivity from some of the less recognizable names. Mike gave Adam Warren his due yesterday. Preston Claiborne has also done a great job on the mound in limited opportunity. Anecdotally, the kid looks composed out there, and because of it I tend to have an irrational calm every time he’s pitches. He hasn’t shown very much in the strike out department (5.14 K/9), but he’s done a good job of not giving up free bases (no walks). Claiborne has also demonstrated a willingness to use a slider and a changeup in addition to his fastball, which I personally appreciate.
Overall, Cashman has done a pretty good job of piecing together quality bullpens over the past several seasons, which is important as it seems to be an increasingly specialized (and valued) part of the game. I think it’s worth acknowledging that a fair portion of the team’s success this season can also be attributed to the bullpen given the current roster construction.
Phil Hughes and his looming contract
Posted by: | Comments
(Jamie Squire/Getty)
We’re not even half way through the 2013 season — seems like a perfect opportunity to discuss Phil Hughes‘ looming contract situation! The once-heralded prospect from California reached The Show back in 2007. Six-hundred and seventy-five innings (and several injuries) later, he’s amassed a career 4.40 ERA (4.25 FIP), which equates to a cumulative 10.1 WAR according to FanGraphs. In terms of peripheral stats over the course of his career, he’s struck out 7.62 per nine, walked 2.82 per nine, and surrendered 1.27 homeruns per nine. With that said, he’s only 26 year’s old and seems to be heading in the right direction (though his last start wasn’t wonderful). This season, he’s pitched to a 4.43 ERA which is actually just a touch over his 4.15 FIP. His strikeout and walk rates have been better than his career norms so far, and with any luck, his HR/9 rate will end up closer to his career norm than the inflated rate we witnessed all last season.
So here’s the rub. The Yankees have the option of proposing a qualifying offer to him after this season. Should they go that route, Hughes would remain in pinstripes for another season at a salary in the neighborhood of roughly $13-15M. This would delay his free agency for another year should he accept the offer (and would presumably qualify the Yankees for a supplemental first round draft pick if he chooses to take services elsewhere). Subsequently, if Hughes reached free agency in 2015, he’d be potentially competing for another contract against guys like Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Masterson, or Max Scherzer among others — obviously, the list of potential free agents can and probably will change rather drastically as teams attempt to retain their players between now and then (complete 2015 list here).
The Yankees could forgo the qualifying offer altogether after this season and let Phil simply test the free agent market — which would probably be in Phil’s best interest financially. 2014 brings a mediocre group of free agents that includes notable names such as Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Jon Lester (who has a $13M club option), Colby Lewis, Shaun Marcum, and Josh Johnson. Lincecum and Halladay seem to have lost a lot of their star power (due to declining ability and injuries), and I’d be surprised to see Lester’s option does not get picked up. I’d also be surprised to not see Johnson, Garza, and maybe even Shields get traded (and extended) before then, which would all of a sudden makes that list a lot less interesting. Depending who else is available on the market will heavily influence Hughes’ perceived value.
Or, the Yankees could take an alternate and perhaps more desirable path, and buy out Hughes’ 2014 season in addition to a few more with an extension. Technically, the Yankees could also try to trade Phil before this decision has to be made, but seeing as though they’ll likely not be sellers by the deadline, I just don’t see this happening, nor do I think they would get a ton in return anyway. On the one hand, the Yankees face a perilous rotation situation next season. Pretending Michael Pineda is healthy and effective (and that alone may prove to be an excercise in absurdity), that leaves the Yankees with … well, it leaves them with CC Sabathia and Pineda. After that, it’s some combination of David Phelps, Ivan Nova, and not much else. I’d love to believe Manny Banuelos could be in the mix, but that’s probably waaay to optimistic given his rehab timetable and overall progress. Maybe Hopefully Andy Pettitte and/or Hiroki Kuroda are coaxed into another year in pinstripes, but that is not a garauntee by any means given their age and vocalized interest in retirement.
(Elsa/Getty)
On one hand, having Hughes in the mix would certainly make the rotation a bit more digestable on paper, plus it’s comforting to know what weaknesses you have in a player rather than finding out down the road what baggage someone else brings. On the other hand, there are the talks about an austerity budget which poses a definite financial dilemma, and might be the biggest contributing factor as to why the Yankees may pass on Hughes (along with others) altogether. To be absolutely clear, I hope the Yankees elect to bring Hughes back – not because he has become the wunderkind that was advertised throughout the minors, but because I think he’s a younger alternative to many of the options out there, and honestly just about as effective at this point. To Hughes’ credit, he has also shown occasional capacity to be more than just a back-of-the-rotation type of arm. Also, I don’t necessarily envision the Yankees acquiring another headline-caliber pitcher — the Sabathias of the world are hard to come by after all, but who knows.
So let’s say for a moment that the Yankees roll the dice on Phil and offer him an extension. What might that contract look like? When asked this very question during Thursday’s RAB Live Chat, I whimsically answered five years, $50M. In retrospect, that price seems a bit conservative – though the number of years seems realistic enough. Really, that’s the price I would want the Yankees to pay, although I would definitely not complain with a four year, $52M agreement similar to Edwin Jackson’s. In actuality, I’d be surprised if it didn’t cost more though. Perhaps five years, $60M seems more plausible. At that rate, Hughes would still have some legitimate wealth, and wouldn’t completely break the bank for the Yankees (not to mention the contract would still include his peak years). For what it’s worth, we’ve also seen guys like Jered Weaver sacrifice a few dollars to stick around with a team he’s comfortable with, and maybe Hughes would do the same for the Yankees (though that’s not necessarily the norm nor would I expect it).
Interestingly enough, Baseball-Reference’s comparitive list of pitchers’ performance most similar by age includes Kyle Kendrick and John Lackey. Kendrick isn’t really useful for contract comparisons as he’s basically going through the same process himself. Lackey could make for an interesting discussion though. If Hughes performs very well for the remainder of the season (especially if the pitchers market becomes increasingly scarce), an inflated contract could become more likely. In his final year with the Angels, Lackey was making $10M. Boston rewarded him with a five-year, $82M salary. This is also similar to the deal that Anibal Sanchez received from the Tigers (though his included a club option). Both of these contracts are probably “best case” scenarios for Phil — but they are still within the realm of plausible. After all, how many times have we seen a team overpay a guy for whatever reason. Also, other organizations may not worry as much about his fly ball tendancies if their stadium is more pitcher friendly.
Conversely, if Hughes has a really disappointing season from here on out, he could end up with an offer closer to Rickey Nolasco, say, a three-year, $36M pact — or, a few years to re-prove himself at a standard rate. Given the premium placed on pitching, the fact that teams have money to spend and Hughes’ favorable age, I’d bet he lands a contract closer to Lackey before I’d bet on one similar to Nolasco — though my guess is he’ll fall somewhere in between, ultimately ending up slightly above Edwin’s arrangement. In any event, the Yankees have some tough decisions to make. Whatever they ultimately do, I’m sure it’ll be scrutinized heavily. In the meantime, what would you do?
When the Grandy-Man Returns
Posted by: | Comments
(Scranton Times-Tribune)
The return of Curtis Granderson is imminent. The forearm has apparently healed well. His bat seems to be rounding into form (.412/.412/.588, 185 wRC+ during his time with AAA). This is great news. It also puts Joe Girardi in a bit of quandary in terms of lineups. He’ll have to figure out how to delegate playing time to Granderson, Brett Gardner, Vernon Wells, and Ichiro Suzuki. Although Ben Francisco is technically still in the mix at this juncture, I’d have to assume his days are numbered as a Yankee barring something unforeseen.
Brennan Boesch hasn’t been particularly effective through a limited number of opportunities thus far (.205/.244/.436, 77 wRC+), and he was sent down this afternoon in favor of another pitcher. That is not a surprise. He was used sparingly as a platoon option, which was fine. Exactly as it should be.
Here’s how Gardner, Wells, and Ichiro have fared so far:
|
Player |
PA |
HR |
BB% |
K% |
BABIP |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
|
| Gardner |
158 |
3 |
8.9% |
20.3% |
.314 |
.259 |
.329 |
.403 |
.321 |
98 |
| Wells |
143 |
9 |
7.0% |
13.3% |
.286 |
.295 |
.343 |
.530 |
.374 |
135 |
| Ichiro |
129 |
2 |
6.2% |
10.9% |
.282 |
.263 |
.307 |
.364 |
.286 |
74 |
I suspect Girardi is going to be forced into keeping Wells in the lineup, whether as an outfielder or DH, as long as his bat is above-average. This isn’t a bad thing by any means as long as he’s productive. Of the three outfielders listed above, he’s also the only who will really hit for any power.
As far as Gardner and Suzuki are concerned, I basically view them as the same guy. Neither are slouches defensively. Both are quick around the bases (though Ichiro may have the better base stealing instincts). Offensively, they both will look to get on base via the single (usually of the slap variety) the majority of the time. Ichiro will likely maintain the higher batting average, while Gardner will take a few more walks and allow a few more strike outs. One difference between the two, however, is that Ichiro has a much more noticeable split.
If I were the manager I would probably start Wells in left, have Gardner remain in center, and place Granderson in right (which would mitigate bad defensive routes). This would also place power bats in both OF corner slots while allowing Gardner to maximize his defensive value. Girardi could then substitute Ichiro into the game in the later innings as a defensive upgrade in right when necessary. I suppose the caveat here would be that the occasional platoon would still be utilized if specific matchups warranted it or the occasional off day was needed for a particular guy.
Should Girardi elect to keep Granderson in center, then I suppose I would shift Gardner to left where has has plenty of experience, and push Vernon to right. For what it’s worth, Granderson has been rehabbing at all three outfield positions apparently, so hopefully that’s a precursor to him playing a fair amount of games at the corners despite it being contrary to Girardi’s statements on the matter.
Thoughts on a Random Saturday
Posted by: | Comments
(Jamie Squire/Getty)
Note from Mike: Just a heads up, Matt wrote this Thursday, so some of it sounds kinda weird after the blowout win over the Royals.
1. The Yankees offense looked pretty anemic against the Rockies, which is kind of surprising given the fly ball tendencies of Colorado’s ballpark. Then again, maybe it isn’t all that surprising as half of the Yankees lineup belongs in AAA (you know it’s bad when soon-to-be-canned Ben Francisco is batting fifth) and Travis Hafner is stuck on the bench. The Yankees pitching is pretty solid, but they’ll need to plate more than a couple runs on the board if they’re going to be successful this season, unless they plan on taking a page out of the 2012-Orioles-win-by-a-run-every-night handbook. When Hiroki Kuroda gives the team seven strong innings of two-run ball you’d like to see a W. On a side note, it’s really too bad CC Sabathia‘s start was cut short by rain. He was looking really sharp prior to the delay.
2. Speaking of run production deficiencies, I can’t stand watching the pitchers hit. Don’t get me wrong, I love interleague play – especially since the Yankees have generally fared pretty well through these matches. But I can’t stand pitchers hitting. Aside from the fact that they are generally terrible hitters at the plate (yes, even the “good” ones), the risk of injury is simply too great. Frankly, I cringe every time I see CC step up to the batter’s box in general, but now more than ever, the Yankees depend on him taking the ball every five days with half their team out of commission. Here’s to the AL and the designated hitter.
3. Not really Yankees related, but I thought I’d mention the fiasco in Cleveland. For those not familiar with the situation, Oakland’s Adam Rosales was ripped off of what would have been a game tying home run. Here’s the video. The umpires had an opportunity to reverse the incorrect call but they didn’t despite the replays showing definitively that they screwed up. I find this pretty inexcusable. I get the argument (though I don’t necessarily agree with it) that it’s nice to have the “human element” in the game (aside from the players apparently). But for goodness sake, get the damn call right when the tools have been implemented, are easily accessible and are designed specifically for that purpose.
4. During Thursday afternoon’s chat, I received a number of comments mentioning Joe Girardi’s nomination for the Manager of the Year award should the team make the playoffs. First, that seems a bit arbitrary to me – if the team has a successful season but just barely misses the playoffs by a game or two, shouldn’t that still count? Kind of like when he won the award with the Marlins? Second, Girardi’s doing the best that he can with the pieces that he has, and keep in mind those pieces are generally veteran players. That said, I don’t know that you can give him credit for the performance of the players. Guys like Hafner or Vernon Wells or Kevin Youkilis are going to do what they’re going to do. I’m just not sure how much Girardi has to do with it. At the end of the day, the players are accountable for their own performance. Just my $0.02.
RAB Live Chat
Posted by: | Comments
Injuries, winning, and the rest of AL East
Posted by: | Comments
(AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
Last week, Mike polled RAB about which player on the disabled list the Yankees miss the most. Specifically, he focused on the players who started the season on the DL, who would have undoubtedly made the team’s Opening Day roster, and would have been expected to be primary contributors – Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira.
As I contemplated my response to the poll (I voted Jeter by the way), I considered the cost of those four players. They are worth approximately $85M in annualized salary. Add in Kevin Youkilis (who was the injury-prone back up plan to the injury-prone third baseman) for the sake of argument, and we’ve accounted for approximately 40% of the total cumulative Yankee payroll in 2013 (~$228M).
Now, just out of curiosity, I took a quick jaunt over to Cot’s Baseball Contracts and looked at the other AL East rosters. I imagined what those lineups might look like if one effectively removed approximately 40% of the payroll from those rosters. In terms of players, I began by filtering out some of the more expensive contracts on the payroll, as they presumably would have been the same type of key starters that the teams were counting on the most – kind of like the Yankees. It’s not a scientific comparison by any means, but I think the point stands to reason nevertheless.
| Orioles ($92M Total) | Red Sox ($155M Total) | Rays ($62M Total) | Blue Jays ($119M Total) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Markakis ($15.3M) | John Lackey ($15.9M) | David Price ($10.1M) | Jose Bautista ($14M) |
| Brian Roberts ($10M) | David Ortiz ($11.5M) | Evan Longoria ($6M) | Josh Johnson ($13.7M) |
| Adam Jones ($8.9M) | Ryan Dempster ($13.2M) | Ben Zobrist ($5.6M) | Mark Buehrle ($12M) |
| Matt Wieters ($5.5M) | Jon Lester ($11.6M) | Yunel Escobar ($5M) | Jose Reyes ($10M) |
Frankly, it’s kind of laughable. For Baltimore, I think they could survive without Roberts (as he’s been pretty injured the last few seasons anyway). Take away Markakis, Jones and Wieters though, and I think they’re in a lot of trouble. I don’t see the Rays surviving without Price or Longoria, let alone both, and I think we’re seeing what the Jays look like when their superstars aren’t overly effective or are absent from the lineup altogether. The Red Sox started the season with Ortiz on the DL and with Lackey being, well, himself. That said, they have relied quite a bit on Dempster, Victorino, and Lester to all help shoulder the burden. Take Lester out of the mix, and that MLB leading record might not be so shiny.
I’m not sure where I’m going with this other than it’s pretty incredible that the Yankees have not only continued to win (fifth best record in the AL, seventh best record in MLB) but have really handled a brutal injury plague about as well as could be expected. After all, many of us (including me) were hoping the team could merely stay afloat. We were hoping come mid-May, the team wasn’t 10+ games back already.
Some of this success can and should certainly be attributed to guys like Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner really stepping up to the plate (see what I did there?), and Robinson Cano performing like the MVP candidate that he is. However, it’s hard to imagine most teams survive in this environment. Now, one could understandably question how much more the team can handle, or even if no one else gets hurt, how long this can last as it is. Still, I for one am absolutely pleased with where the team is all things considering.
An interview with former Yankee John Ellis
Posted by: | Comments
Recently, I had the distinct pleasure of chatting with former Yankee backstop, John Ellis. Mr. Ellis played for the Bombers from 1969-1972. He would go on to spend the rest of his career playing for both Cleveland and Texas. Ellis played side-by-side with Yankee legend, Thurman Munson, was part of the trade that brought fan favorite Graig Nettles to New York, and was also listed as the first official designated hitter in Cleveland Indian history.
Matthew Warden: A lot of us here at RAB were disappointed to see Russell Martin relocate to Pittsburgh. He seemed to be generally regarded as a quality defensive catcher with some pop in his bat. What are your thoughts on his skillset and did the Yankees make a mistake in letting him go?
John Ellis: Russell Martin was a tough, good catcher. But no, I don’t think [they made a mistake]. Based on the start of the season, Martin’s replacements are doing very well. Most importantly, the pitching staff is responding.
MW: When you watch the Francisco Cervelli/Chris Stewart tandem, what do you see?
JE: This tandem is as good as Martin, maybe not for homeruns, but as defensive catchers, who will [hopefully] hit for a higher average.
MW: Now that Cervelli is injured, what about Austin Romine? How hard is it for a kid to come up and immediately build that rapport with the pitchers?
JE: I do not think it is that hard to learn the pitcher’s breaks [movement on pitches]. What is hard is learning the AL batters and how to set them up and get them out.
MW: Pretend you’re the starting catcher on the Yankees roster today. What advice would you have for Ivan Nova? It seems like his control is simply not there. Do you see any mechanical flaws, or is he simply not the pitcher we saw in the second half of 2011?
JE: I have to believe that his arm must still be bothering him. As far as being an effective sinker-slider pitcher, he will just not have the consistency [while experiencing injuries].
*Note: this question was posed prior to Nova being sent to the DL for triceps inflammation. Turns out, Mr. Ellis was right on the money with his reply about a potential lingering injury.
MW: Can Nova be a viable starting pitcher for the Yankees once healthy? Do you see enough potential there?
JE: Of course. Definitely.
MW: On the other hand, how impressive have Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda generally been thus far?
JE: As far as Andy and Hiroki, they are healthy. They are pitching great and using all their pitches.
MW: How concerned are you about CC Sabathia’s declining velocity?
JE: As many have said, “he just gets it done.”
MW: So we can tell folks to take a step back from the ledge? The big guy will be fine?
JE: Absolutely. He is great.
MW: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson are all on the DL. Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez, and Raul Ibanez are no longer with the team. That’s a lot of talent (and power) that’s no longer present. What are your expectations for this team offensively?
JE: Presently, [the offense] is doing more than anyone expected. Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkilis and Lyle Overbay have all done a great job. All of these guys have had a great start in NY and I expect them to get better.
MW: Chicks love the long ball though. Are homeruns as necessary as we make them out to be? Are you okay with a more National League style of play?
JE: I like the AL’s designated hitter and I like the homeruns. But the Yankees will still have to find ways to get it done with or without them. They have to.
MW: One of the big narratives of the offseason was the new austerity budget that could take effect in 2014. What are your thoughts on the possibility of a new financially leaner Yankee squad?
JE: I am not sure about the austerity budget but the Yankees continue to find talent and I expect that to continue.
MW: Do you foresee some “rebuilding years” in New York’s near future — a few seasons where they simply aren’t competitive?
JE: No, they have a chance to rebuild the team right now [as they go] … and they are. If they rebuild anything, it will be replacing some of the great pitchers they have now [who may not return next season].
MW: Speaking of finances, how about the looming Robinson Cano contract? The man is going to be paid, and paid handsomely. What do you expect his next contract will look like? Will it be with the Yankees? Does Robbie belong in pinstripes for the foreseeable future?
JE: Cano is a great player and I expect the Yankees to sign him to a mega deal and be with the team for the remainder of his career.
MW: Are you in favor of teams making these mega deals? Does it matter that they can cripple roster flexibility down the road? Any idea what that mega deal might look like (in terms of dollars and years)?
JE: Firstly, I believe they insure their mega deals and I expect teams to continue making them [regardless of whether they hinder the team or not down the road] … especially for starting pitchers. As for Robbie, [his contract] could go as high as 10 years $20M a season. That said, I’m in favor of retaining the talent.
MW: The AL East is a gauntlet this year. It’s probably about as balanced as it’s ever been in terms of competitiveness. Who’s going to pose the most threat to the Yankees?
JE: Boston and Tampa.
MW: What do these teams have that Baltimore and Toronto don’t?
JE: Better starting pitching.
MW: Who wins the division?
JE: The Yankees.
MW: Does Toronto end up living up to the preseason hype?
JE: Yes, but one game still separates everybody.
MW: So you envision this year’s race to come down to the very end then?
JE: To the last day.
MW: Who’s the best player in the AL these days in your eyes?
JE: Mike Trout from the Angels.
MW: Do you see him ever topping his numbers from last season?
JE: It’s certainly possible.
MW: Just for some perspective here, what former ball player would you compare Trout too?
JE: Fred Lynn.
MW: How about in the NL?
JE: John Buck from the Mets.
MW: Wow! Really? You’re okay with putting him before guys like Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, or Bryce Harper? What are you seeing in Buck that I am not?
JE: Homeruns. Just having a better season so far!
MW: I’m sensing a little catcher bias here … maybe.
JE: [Laughs]
MW: What were your thoughts on the Zack Greinke altercation? Don Mattingly suggested that Carlos Quentin should be punished as long as Greinke is injured. Agree?
JE: Nice thought, but I do not recall the incident (who threw or charged who?).
MW: All indications were that Greinke accidentally hit Quentin. However, those guys had a “history” prior. Apparently, before the charge, Greinke did verbally provoke Quentin though. Does this change anything?
JE: Not really. It happens.
MW: Did you have a “history” with any players during your days in The Show?
JE: No, I was a gentleman.
MW: Be Honest now! There wasn’t anyone that got your blood boiling?
JE: [Laughs] Nope.
MW: [Laughs] Let me ask you this then. Are you obligated to join the brawl if the benches start clearing?
JE: Yes.
MW: What’s the expectation there for players?
JE: Hold each other back and protect your own players.
MW: You knew this question was coming. How far do the Yanks go assuming they win the division?
JE: All the way!
MW: Thank you so much for your time Mr. Ellis.
JE: You’re welcome! Thanks for having me.
For more baseball banter with John, be sure to check out the first time I interviewed Mr. Ellis back in 2011.
Aside from being a former Big Leaguer, current entrepreneur, and a gentleman, Mr. Ellis is also a philanthropist. Be sure to check out Mr. Ellis’ charity, the Connecticut Sports Foundation Against Cancer (CSFAC) for additional information or if you’re interested in becoming a donor.
Thoughts on a Random Friday
Posted by: | Comments1. YES had an interesting graphic displayed during last night’s game. It showed which teams had the lowest batting averages in the American League versus left-handed pitching. As you may have expected, the Yankees (.199) were number two on this dubious list, trailing only the offensively inept Mariners (.189). What you may not have known, was that among the five worst lefty hitting teams, three teams came from the AL East. Trailing right behind the Yankees are the Red Sox (.215) and the Blue Jays (.220). The White Sox (.243) round out the bottom five.
We knew this would be an issue coming into the season given the configuration of the lineup. However, as is so often the case, we are either unaware of dismissive of the rest of the league’s struggles in relation to our own. Ideally, the Yankees simply would not have such drastic splits. However, seeing as they do, it’s of some comfort to know that some of their divisional rivals are experiencing the same dilemma. Perhaps, to some degree, this makes one of the Yankees more noticeable vulnerabilities a bit less alarming at the moment. Obviously, it’s still a problem the team should look to address as quickly as possible. You know their competition will look to as well.
2. Yesterday was a pretty gratifying win. Hiroki Kuorda didn’t have his best stuff, but he kept the team in the game. We saw some displays of power from both likely and unlikely contributors, and of course we enjoyed the perks of a dominant bullpen. On top of that, the Yankees managed a come-from-behind win (against a lefty no less). Ideally, the Yankees won’t get into the habit of trailing the other team. However, it’s good to know that when they do they can muster up some resilience occasionally. We’ve seen them come from behind several times this year already – a few times against the Diamondbacks and against the Rays if memory serves. These early season wins are especially gratifying while the team is navigating through all the injuries.
3. How about Robinson Cano? Turns out he’s pretty good. He looked lost at the plate against the Red Sox and Tigers in the first two series of the season. Since then, well … he’s been himself. He’s now batting .322/.372/.632 (.424 wOBA, 171 wRC+). He’s tied for fifth in all of baseball in home runs (with seven), and trails only Chris Davis and J.P. Arencibia in the American League (with eight). Not too shabby, especially considering his position. What is interesting though, is that his K% is a few percentage points higher than his career norms in the early goings of the season. That said, I would certainly expect that to normalize as the season progresses a bit further (but we’ll keep an eye on it nevertheless). If the Yankees are going to have any kind of sustained success this season, they’ll need Robinson’s bat to remain hot — especially if some of the other overachievers begin to slow down.
4. Since it’s Friday and I’m feeling frivolous, let’s take a quick pit stop into the world of arbitrary and meaningless observations. Yesterday was my 29th birthday and the Yankees won, which was perfect. I remember telling my wife that it had seemed like forever since the last time the Yankees won on my birthday. Well, as it turns out, that wasn’t too far from the truth. The last time they won on the 25th of April was 2006. Since 1984, they’ve gone 9-16 (there were five off days since that time). So there’s that.
