For the first time in a long time, the Yankees are looking for a second baseman. Well, they’re looking for an infielder. Kelly Johnson‘s flexibility allows them to look for someone to man either second or third depending how the market shakes out. Omar Infante makes a lot of sense since he’s versatile and can play either spot, but Buster Olney says he’s seeking more than $8M annually on a long-term deal. That’s crazy even by today’s standards.
The rest of the infield market is pretty crummy — the Yankees really did a good job by signing Johnson early and at that price, the more I think about it and look at the alternatives — but one player who stands out as a potential fit is veteran second baseman Mark Ellis. The 36-year-old was the token non-star player in the Dodgers’ lineup this past season after spending the majority of his career with the Athletics, and now he’s a free agent. Does he fit with the Yankees? Let’s find out.
- Offensively, Ellis is a contact-oriented guys who hits to all fields (spray chart). He hit .270 (.310 BABIP) this past season with a 15.4% strikeout rate and an 86.5% contact rate. Over the last two years with the Dodgers, Ellis has hit .263 (.303 BABIP) with a 15.3% strikeout rate and an 87.3% contract rate. That’s the 26th highest contact rate among the 190 players to bat at least 800 times since 2012.
- Ellis, a right-handed hitter, does pound southpaws. He put up a .282/.331/.412 (112 wRC+) line against them in 2013 and a .302/.354/.457 (128 wRC+) line against them from 2012-2013. That includes a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate.
- In the field is where Ellis earns his money. He’s a standout defensive second baseman who has graded out very well according to the various stats: +23 UZR, +39 DRS, +9 FRAA, and +28 Total Zone over the last three seasons. His defensive spray chart shows just many balls he can get to. Pretty cool.
- The Dodgers did not tender Ellis a qualifying offer, so it won’t cost the Yankees or any other team a draft pick to sign him.
- Ellis has no power at all. He has hit 25 homers total over the last four years (1,955 plate appearances) and over the last two years he has a measly .093 ISO. As his batted ball distance graph shows, he simply doesn’t hit the ball very far. There’s no reason to think Yankee Stadium will help his power output in a meaningful way.
- Right-handed pitchers eat him right up. Ellis hit only .265/.319/.325 (83 wRC+) against righties in 2013 and .247/.316/.312 (80 wRC+) against them while with the Dodgers over the last two seasons. He’s just a platoon hitter on a light side of the platoon.
- Ellis doesn’t provide much on the bases. He’s stolen nine bags in ten tries (hooray efficiency!) over the last two years while taking the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) just 36% of the time. That’s a few ticks below the 40% league average.
- Ellis may be slick with the glove but he has close to zero versatility. He has played a total 147.2 innings at positions other than second base in his career. That is broken down into 20.2 innings at first (14.2 since 2006), 63.2 innings at short (none since 2005), and 63.1 innings at third (0.1 since 2002).
- Injuries are a problem. Ellis has been on the DL at least once every year since 2008 and in eight of the last ten seasons. His list of injuries include a torn labrum (2004), broken thumb (2006), another torn labrum (2008), calf strain (2009), hamstring strain (2010 and 2011), acute compartment syndrome surgery on his left leg (2012), and a quad strain (2013). Ellis has played in 130+ games just once since 2007 and twice since 2003.
The Cardinals and Rays are among the clubs pursuing Ellis according to Susan Slusser and Ken Rosenthal, so if nothing else, it’s reassuring to know some smart clubs are looking at him. He’s basically the second base version of Brendan Ryan, only a bit more useful with the bat, especially against lefties. A Ryan-Ellis middle infield would be the team’s best defensive double play combination in a long time, which would be very useful if they acquire an extreme ground-baller like Justin Masterson. That seems unlikely at this point, however.
Ellis made $5.25M in 2013 and the Dodgers elected to pay him a $1M buyout rather than exercise his $5.75M club option a few weeks ago. I can’t imagine he will get a multi-year contract at this point of his career — I said that two years ago, but then Los Angeles gave him two guaranteed years, so what do I know — and a deal similar to Johnson’s seems reasonable. One year and $3M or so. Infante is asking for a ton of money — he looks like a classic case of a guy who had a career year offensively at just the right time, no? — and the trade market is mostly barren, meaning Ellis may be the best realistic option. He’d bat ninth, catch everything hit his way, do some damage against lefties, and be eminently replaceable if someone better comes along.
The Yankees have acquired right-hander Kyle Haynes from the Pirates to complete last week’s Chris Stewart trade, the team announced. Stewart was dealt for a player to be named later a few hours before the non-tender deadline. New York was going to cut him loose for no return before working out the swap with Pittsburgh.
Haynes, 22, was a 20th round pick out of Virginia Commonwealth in 2012. He had a 2.38 ERA (2.68 FIP) in 83.1 innings for the Pirates’ High Class-A affiliate this past season, making 33 relief appearances before moving into the rotation and closing out the year with eight starts. Haynes had a very nice strikeout rate (9.18 K/9 and 24.6 K%) but walked a few too many (3.89 BB/9 and 10.4 BB%). He has allowed one homer in 110 career innings since signing. Pirates Prospects has a scouting report and says he’s a low-90s fastball guy with a slider and a changeup. Stewart had basically no trade value, so getting a Double-A ready arm who misses bats is a solid deal for the Yankees.
Eric Jagielo | 3B
Jagielo (pronounced “ja-guy-low”) is from the Chicago suburb of Downers Grove, where he lettered all four years in baseball at Downers Grove North High School. He hit .585/.676/1.137 with 17 doubles, 16 homers, 47 runs driven in, and 52 runs scored — school records across the board — with only four strikeouts as a senior and was named First Team All-State. Despite the production, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Jagielo as one of the 30 best prospects in the state for the 2010 draft. The Cubs selected him in the 50th round with the 1,510th overall pick, the 15th to last pick in the draft.
Jagielo declined to sign and instead followed through on his commitment to Notre Dame. He started all 53 games as a freshman for the Fighting Irish and was something of a super utility man, starting 30 games in left field, 15 in center field, six at first base, and two at third base. Jagielo hit .269/.355/.418 with 13 doubles, five homers, five stolen bases (in ten attempts), 25 walks, and 30 strikeouts that year, becoming the first freshman to hit third on Opening day for Notre Dame since 1988.
While speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees are planning to retire #6 in honor of Joe Torre at some point. “We haven’t given it out for a reason,” said the GM. “It’s been tucked away for quite some time. At some point, that’ll happen, not doubt about it. Clearly it has already unofficially happened.”
Torre, 73, was unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame by the Expansion Era committee on Monday thanks to his 12-year stint in the Bronx. The divorce was not pretty, but the two sides have since made amends and Torre has returned to Yankee Stadium on several occasions. Old Timer’s Day, Mariano Rivera‘s going away ceremony, stuff like that. He deserves to have his number retired and I’m glad the team will make it official at some point.
Fun Fact: The last player to wear #6 before Torre was Tony Fernandez in 1995. Here’s the full list.
The Yankees did not clear a 40-man roster spot prior to Monday’s deadline, so they will not be able to make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft on Thursday. I thought they might roll the dice on a reliever or two given the state of the bullpen, but I guess not. Not a big deal, obviously. The success rate of Rule 5 Draft picks under the current system is so low it’s not even worth thinking about.
The Yankees will need to open a 40-man spot once Carlos Beltran’s three-year contract becomes official. Otherwise all of the team’s recent additions are finalized and on the roster.
The second day of the Winter Meetings came and went … well, kinda. It’s still going on but you know what I mean. The Mark Trumbo trade is the big baseball news of the day (yawn), and as far as the Yankees are concerned, the only interesting thing was Brian Cashman (transcript) and Joe Girardi (transcript) speaking to the media. Both guys discussed a number of topics but didn’t say anything overly interesting, typical YankeeSpeak. Girardi did acknowledge that Robinson Cano was not happy batting second this past season, which we first heard a few days ago. Oh well. It’s in the past.
This is your open thread for the evening. The five hockey and basketball locals are all in action, so talk about any of those games, the Winter Meetings, or anything else on your mind. Enjoy.
By Winter Meetings standards, Monday was pretty slow. Most of the top free agents have signed already, and until we get some resolution regarding Masahiro Tanaka, the pitching market will remain relatively quiet. The Yankees are still looking for a starter even after re-signing Hiroki Kuroda, plus they need some bullpen help and either a second or third baseman. Oh, and general depth. That’s always necessary.
Here are yesterday’s Yankees-related rumors. The most notable thing we learned is that New York’s asking price for Brett Gardner is “through (the) roof” while rival executives think he’ll fetch a number three starter at best. His value is greater to the Yankees than it is anyone else, really. We’ll keep track of the day’s rumors right here, so make sure you check back often. All times at ET.
- 9:18am: The Yankees want to import two relievers and they’ve been discussing Joaquin Benoit internally. Matt looked at him earlier today. [Bob Nightengale]
- 5:46pm: The Yankees have not yet shown much interest in left-hander Paul Maholm as a back of the rotation stopgap. [McCullough]
- 5:39pm: Unsurprisingly, Ichiro has a “limited trade market, maybe very limited.” The Yankees want to move him and keep Gardner. [Heyman]
- 3:00pm: The Yankees are one of three teams to inquire about Dustin Ackley. He’s a buy-low second base candidate. Like the idea but not sure how salvageable he is. [Jon Heyman]
- 2:08pm: “Signing one might be easier than trading for one,” said Cashman, referring to the market for starting pitchers. Not surprising given the team’s trade chips. [Chad Jennings]
- 1:57pm: Cashman confirmed other teams have inquired about Gary Sanchez, J.R. Murphy, and Ivan Nova in addition to Gardner and others. [Andy McCullough]
- 1:49pm: “I have thrown a lot of trade proposals out there, as well as conversations with free agents,” said Cashman while adding he’s unsure if these talks will actually lead to anything. [Barbarisi]
- 1:38pm: The Yankees have not had any trade talks about their spare outfielders (i.e. Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki) with the Giants. [John Shea]
- 1:28pm: Brian Cashman called Kevin Youkilis‘ agent to gauge his interest in returning, but Youkilis wants to play closer to his home in California. Funny, I want him to do that too. [Jack Curry]
- 12:17pm: The Yankees do have interest in re-signing Mark Reynolds. Alfonso Soriano is the team’s only right-handed power hitter, so Reynolds would fit in a limited role. [David Waldstein]
- 11:52am: The Yankees and others have interest in Danny Espinosa, but the Nationals are balking at moving him right now. I looked at him as a buy-low target back in August. [Ken Rosenthal]
- 11:45am: There is nothing going on between the Yankees and Mets about Daniel Murphy at the moment. I looked at him as a potential trade target last month. [Andrew Marchand]
- 8:24am: The Yankees are “very much interested” in Michael Young and have also checked in on Juan Uribe, Eric Chavez, Matt Garza, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Talks with Garza and Ubaldo are not serious. [Erik Boland & Steven Marcus]
- The Yankees did contact the Reds about Homer Bailey. It’s unclear what they were offering or what Cincinnati was seeking in return. Gardner makes an awful lot of sense here. Two underrated players both one year away from free agency and the Reds needs a leadoff man/center fielder. [Dan Barbarisi]
- Other clubs do not think highly of New York’s outfield prospects and that limits their ability to make trades. “The Yankees have no upper-level talent,” said a Cubs official after the Yankees asked about Jeff Samardzija. [Joel Sherman]
Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.
Six years ago, the Yankees took one of the biggest risks in franchise history. The Twins were shopping two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana one year before free agency and he was a perfect fit for the Yankees, a team in need of a workhorse ace left-hander. There were offers and counteroffers, a bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox, and weeks of rumors. It was exhausting, really.
Santana was a perfect fit for the Yankees … except that he wasn’t. Not only would they have had to trade away some of their top prospects to acquire him, but they’d also would have had to give him a nine-figure contract extension to keep him around. Johan was also showing some signs of decline, particularly in his spiking homerun rate and sudden decreased usage of his slider. There were definite red flags. It was a risky move but the type of move the Yankees usually make, except this time they didn’t. They passed on Santana and off he went to the Mets for a mostly forgettable four-player package.
The Yankees passed on Santana for two reasons. One, they wanted to keep their young pitching. Given the state of the franchise at the time, it was the right move. Two, there was a better option coming along the next offseason. CC Sabathia, another Cy Young winning workhorse left-hander, was due to become a free agent following the 2008 season, when New York could acquire him for nothing but money (and a draft pick). It was an incredibly risky move because there was no guarantee Sabathia would actually hit the open market, but the Yankees rolled the dice and a year later they got their man. They kept their young starters and got their ace lefty. Santana, meanwhile, gave the Mets one Cy Young caliber season before starting to break down. The plan couldn’t have worked out much better for the Yankees.
Fast forward to present day, and the Yankees are in a bit of a similar situation. No, they aren’t trying to trade for a Cy Young winning ace southpaw (that would be David Price), but they are in the market for pitching and there are some pricey options sitting out there for the taking, namely Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, and Ervin Santana. Those are the three best free agent starters available right now while Masahiro Tanaka sits in posting system limbo. And you know what? None of those three guys is a slam dunk, we gotta have him starter. Jimenez was awful as recently as the All-Star break, Garza has been hurt the last two years, and Santana was awful in 2012. The track records are as sketchy as they get for a high-priced starter.
Those are the top free agent pitchers available right now, with Hiroki Kuroda off the board and Tanaka not yet available. Now, courtesy of MLBTR, here is a sampling of the hurlers scheduled to hit the open market one year from now, during the 2014-2015 offseason (2015 season age in parenthesis):
Homer Bailey (29)
Clayton Kershaw (27)
Jon Lester (31)
Justin Masterson (30)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)
Those are six pretty great pitchers, right? Just about all of them are reasonably young too. I’d rather have any of those six over Ubaldo or Garza or Santana, that’s for sure. Obviously those guys could sign extensions between now and next winter — Kershaw, Scherzer, and Lester seem most likely to ink an extension at this time — but there’s just so many of them that one or two figures to slip through the cracks and be available next offseason.
If Tanaka doesn’t get posted — I still think they should go all out to land him if he does indeed become available at some point — I think the Yankees would be better off repeating their Santana-Sabathia strategy. Rather than pay for an imperfect solution like Garza or Ubaldo or Santana right now, they could sign a stopgap starter (Bartolo?) for this year before going hard after one (or maybe even two) of those top guys next winter. They’ll want to have as much money available as possible if, say, Kershaw and Scherzer hit free agency next winter. Or Bailey and Masterson. Or Lester and Shields. You get the point. A stray Ubaldo could gum up the works.
Would this plan be risky? Absolutely. There’s a chance all of them will sign extensions before free agency and the Yankees will be left out in the pitching cold. Is it worth the risk? I think it is when there are six (not one or two) of these guys and the alternatives are Garza, Jimenez, and Santana. That’s easy for me to say when my neck isn’t on the line, obviously. It could be that the Santana-Sabathia situation was a one-time thing the Yankees are not willing to risk again, but because they took that risk once before and it worked out so wonderfully, we kinda have to assume it isn’t completely off the table in the future. If Tanaka is not posted, the Yankees’ best course of action maybe be signing a stopgap starter and focusing on those premium arms slated to hit the market next winter.
Boy have things changed since we last looked at the Yankees’ payroll situation. They lost Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson to free agency but responded with four significant signings (plus one smaller one) of their own. There was also the non-tender deadline, which brought about some change. These last few weeks have been quite busy for the Bombers.
Needless to say, the chances of the Yankees staying under the $189M luxury tax threshold next season have taken a big hit. The team has been talking about staying under the threshold (at every opportunity, it seemed) for a good two years now, plus just about every move they made was geared towards achieving that goal. Just look at the way they structured the money in the Vernon Wells trade last spring.
Here is an updated look at the team’s payroll situation heading into next season. These are “luxury tax hits,” not actual 2014 salary. The two can be different. For reference, here are Part One (January), Part Two (August), and Part Three (November) of the series.
- Under Contract ($172.61M): Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M), CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Jacoby Ellsbury ($21.9M), Brian McCann ($17M), Hiroki Kuroda ($16M), Carlos Beltran ($15M), Derek Jeter ($12.81M), Ichiro Suzuki ($6.5M), Alfonso Soriano ($4M), Kelly Johnson ($3M), Brendan Ryan ($2M), Wells ($0)
- Arbitration-Eligible ($14.8M projected): David Robertson ($5.5M), Brett Gardner ($4M), Ivan Nova ($2.8M), Shawn Kelley ($1.5M), Frankie Cervelli ($1M)
- Pre-Arbitration-Eligible: Zoilo Almonte, Dean Anna, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Jose Campos, Preston Claiborne, Ramon Flores, Shane Greene, Slade Heathcott, David Huff, Brett Marshall, Bryan Mitchell, J.R. Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Vidal Nuno, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Nik Turley, Adam Warren
- Potential Bonuses ($13.5M): Jeter (up to $7M based on awards), A-Rod ($6M for his 660th career homer), Kuroda (up to $500k based on innings)
- Other ($12.085M): Benefits (approximately $12M), Kuroda’s translator ($85k)
Yes, Kuroda’s translator counts against the luxury tax, at least according to Dan Martin and Ken Davidoff. I know, it’s silly, but it is what it is. Eight-five grand doesn’t sound like much, but it is one month’s worth of the league minimum salary. That means one fewer September call-up if the team wants to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Like I said, silly.
Anyway, add the guys under contract to the arbitration eligibles to the possible bonuses to the “other” and you get $212.995M. The 15 guys on the 40-man roster — there are 41 players listed above because the Beltran deal is not official yet, but they will have to make a move to accommodate him once the deal is final — but not on the active 25-man roster are usually estimated at $2-5M, so let’s use the high end and go with $5M. Now we’re up to $217.995M. The Bombers opened this past season at $228.1M and ended it at $236.2M, in case you’re wondering.
Obviously, the Yankees are not getting under the threshold without A-Rod getting suspended for all of next season. Not unless they trade Teixeira and Ichiro or something. Subtract out Alex’s salary and homer bonus and we’re down to $184.495M. Basically $4.5M under the luxury tax. Feel comfortable saying Jeter won’t win the MVP? I think that’s a safe assumption — he hasn’t won an MVP yet and is now coming off what amounts to a lost season at age 39. Eliminating the “win MVP” bonus from his contract frees up another $4M and brings us down to $180.495M.
What does that $180.495M buy the Yankees? Here is the projected 25-man roster as of right now:
|McCann||1B Teixeira||LF Gardner||Sabathia||Robertson|
|2B Johnson or ?||CF Ellsbury||Kuroda||Kelley|
|DH||SS Jeter||RF Beltran/Soriano||Nova||? (Warren)|
|Beltran/Soriano||3B Johnson or ?||? (Phelps)||? (Huff)|
|C Cervelli||OF Ichiro||?|
|IF Ryan||OF Wells|
There are eight total ?s but we can eliminate four with internal solutions. Those are the guys in parentheses. Phelps, Warren, Huff, and Betances — Huff and Betances are both out of minor league options (can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers) and that could give them a leg up when cut day comes around at the end of camp — will all earn something close to the league minimum, so that’s another $2.2M or so spent right there with four ?s still to be answered.
I assume those four ?s will go to veteran players yet to be acquired. That would be ideal, anyway. I guess they could go with Cabral and Clairborne for those final two bullpen spots, or maybe re-sign Matt Daley, but that would be a really sketchy relief corps behind Robertson. The Yankees would have just $6.305M to fill those four holes ($189M – $180.495M – $2.2M), which isn’t much. A big name starting pitcher like Masahiro Tanaka or Matt Garza or whoever isn’t happening without going over the threshold. Ditto Omar Infante. We’re talking $6.305M for a second/third baseman, a starter, and two relievers. Plus they’ll need to leave a little something for midseason call-ups and additions. Gonna be tight.
I see only three ways the Yankees could realistically trim payroll. They could dump Cervelli and replace him with the cheaper Romine or Murphy, but if they were going to do that, they would have non-tendered Frankie last week. That would only save about $450k anyway. The other two ways to clear some payroll space are by trading Gardner and/or Ichiro. There is “significant interest” in Gardner and the team is shopping Ichiro, so the wheels are in motion. Saving even $3M by dealng Ichiro would be a win. They could replace him with Almonte at the league minimum and see basically no drop in production (Steamer and Oliver projections both have them as sub-1.0 WAR players in 2014, if you care). Zoilo would add some nice versatility to the bench as a switch-hitter as well, but I digress.
Obviously this whole exercise is just an estimate, a ballpark figure. We can only be so precise from the outside. The arbitration-eligible guys could come in at a higher or lower salary than projected, for example. Ditto the benefits package all 30 teams must pay.
Maybe the Yankees are comfortable saying Jeter won’t even finish in the top six of the MVP voting, nevermind win it. That would free up another $2M of potential bonus money. (I’m an idiot, disregard that last part.) There’s plenty of wiggle room here, but I think we can say that while staying under the $189M luxury tax threshold is still possible, it will be very difficult to actually pull off following the team’s recent moves.
According to David Waldstein, Hal Steinbrenner has given the okay to go over the threshold despite his recent public insistance that it remains their goal. Perhaps he’s softened his stance given how much revenue declined from 2012 to 2013 ($58M in ticket sales alone). They have already spent as if A-Rod is being suspended, after all. The Yankees have some payroll space left before getting to $189M, but they also have some roster holes to address. Their next move will be telling — if they sign a starter to a big money deal, forget it. They’re going over. If they sign someone cheap or shed salary in a trade, they might plan on seeing this thing through.
The Yankees have already re-signed Hiroki Kuroda and they will conduct a fifth starter’s competition in Spring Training, but they still need to add another starter on top of that. There’s a chance Masahiro Tanaka will not be posted, but, even if he is, it might not happen anytime soon. Negotiations and finalization of the new posting agreement have dragged on for a while. The Yankees have been connected to him but it’s unclear how long they’re willing to wait.
The best available free agent starters right now are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez, all of whom come with red flags. Garza was hurt the last two years, Santana was terrible in 2012, and Jimenez was terrible as recently as the All-Star break. It seems like those guys are in something of a holding pattern until the Tanaka situation is resolved, which isn’t all that surprising. He’s the more desirable target. Earlier today we heard New York checked in on with Garza and Jimenez, but nothing on Santana yet.
Rather than hand out another huge contract this offseason, the Yankees could opt for a lower cost starter on a one-year contract if Tanaka is not posted anytime soon (or at all). Another Kuroda type, basically. One of the top such available pitchers is 40-year-old former Yankee Bartolo Colon, who is coming off two very good years with the Athletics (2.99 ERA and 3.49 FIP), good enough that he’s priced himself out of Oakland. Is a reunion for 2014 a good idea? Let’s look at what he brings to the table.
- Colon pounds the zone and does it with fastballs almost exclusively. He has thrown 87.1% fastballs — 36.4% four-seamers and 50.7% two-seamers — during his two years in Oakland while barely throwing his slider (8.2%) and changeup (4.7%). Colon’s veocity (four-seamer and two-seamer) had held pretty steady these last two years despite his advanced baseball age.
- Bart has been an extreme strike-thrower these last two years. He has a 1.37 BB/9 (3.7 BB%) over the last two seasons, and during that time he led all of baseball by throwing 59.7% of his pitches in the strike zone. Cliff Lee is a distant second at 57.4%. That “pound the zone with fastballs” approach has led to a lot of weak contact and few balls hit further than 300 feet.
- Since resurrecting his career with the Yankees in 2011, Colon has put together back-to-back 150+ inning seasons. He threw 190.1 innings in 2013 and he would have thrown a similar amount in 2012 had he not been suspended in mid-August. Bart will chew up from innings for you.
- The Athletics did not make Colon a qualifying offer, so teams will not have to forfeit a high draft pick to sign him.
- Colon neither strikes guys out nor gets ground balls. He had a steady 5.46 K/9 (14.8 K%) during his two years in Oakland — hitters made contact with 88.5% of their swings, the highest rate in baseball since 2012 — and his ground ball rate dropped from 45.7% in 2012 to only 41.5% in 2013.
- Although lefties did not give Bartolo a problem this past season (lefties had a .297 wOBA, righties .281), they did hit him hard from 2011-2012. Colon held righties to a .245/.275/.330 (.265 wOBA) batting line during those two seasons while lefties tagged him for a .283/.326/.505 (.355 wOBA) line. That would be a problem in Yankee Stadium.
- Injuries have been an issue since Colon returned in 2011. He has been on the DL in each of the last three seasons because of a hamstring strain (2011), an oblique strain (2012), and a groin strain (2013). At least none were arm injuries, I guess.
- As I mentioned before, Colon was suspended 50 games in 2012 (the suspension carried over into early 2013) after failing a performance-enhancing drug test. He was connected to Biogenesis this summer but wasn’t suspended since he had already been disciplined. PED guys are always a bit of a question mark.
Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the market for Colon has been heating up, with the Orioles and Mets among the interested teams. The Yankees have not been connected to him. Heyman adds that if Colon takes a one-year contract (likely given his age), it’ll be for pretty big bucks, around $10M or so. He won’t come as cheap as he has the last three years now that he’s shown a) the arm problems are a thing of the past, and b) he can be an effective starter in the AL.
Among the free agent pitchers who are likely to take a one (or even two) year contract, Colon appears to be the best. That crop of players includes Bronson Arroyo, Erik Bedard, Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm, Mike Pelfrey, and Edinson Volquez. There are obvious red flags here — Colon’s arm could explode or he could simply stop getting guys out, among other things — probably more red flags than any other available pitcher who was actually good in 2013. The Yankees know Bart and he knows them, so there is some type of relationship in place and that could help spur along a deal. Colon does fits the team’s needs but boy is he risky.