Fan Confidence Poll: August 29, 2016

Record Last Week: 4-2 (42 RS, 22 RA)
Season Record: 67-62 (552 RS, 561 RA, 64-65 pythag. record), 3.5 GB of postseason spot
Opponents This Week: @ Royals (three games, Mon. to Thurs.), Thurs. OFF, @ Orioles (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?

Yanks can’t finish sweep, fall 5-0 to Gausman and the O’s

Only the 2016 Yankees could win two of three and make it feel like a disappointment over and over again. They are now an imperfect 0-7 in the third game of a three-game series after winning the first two. I wonder how long it’s been since the Yankees last went an entire season without a three-game sweep? They dropped Sunday’s finale 5-0 to the Orioles.

Cy Gausman. (Rich Schultz/Getty)
Cy Gausman. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

You Can’t Win If You Can’t Score
Yet again, the Yankees were completely shut down by Orioles righty Kevin Gausman. Fourth time this season. He’s held them to three runs total in 27.2 innings this year, which works out to a 0.98 ERA. Gausman has a 4.41 ERA against all other teams. The worst. Here are his four starts against New York:

  • May 5th at Camden Yards: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
  • June 5th at Camden Yards: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
  • July 18th at Yankee Stadium: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
  • August 28th at Yankee Stadium: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

The Yankees had their best chance to score against Gausman in the fourth inning, when Gary Sanchez and Mark Teixeira opened the frame with consecutive singles. Sanchez, however, got a little overeager and tried to go first-to-third on Teixeira’s single to right. Steve Pearce threw him out with an assist from a great Manny Machado tag. Can’t make the first out of the inning at third base, Gary.

Didi Gregorius followed with a single of his own, so the first three batters in the inning reached base. A Starlin Castro ground out and a Brian McCann strike out ending the threat. We’ll never know how the inning (and the game) would have played out had Sanchez put on the brakes and stopped at second, but man, it does stink to not score after the first three batters of the inning get hits.

The Yankees never threatened much after that fourth inning failed rally. In fact, they only had three baserunners the rest of the way. Ronald Torreyes singled in the fifth, McCann singled in the seventh, and Sanchez doubled in the eighth. Seventeen of the final 20 Yankees to bat made outs. Classic getaway day game by the offense.

Bad Gary. (Rich Schultz/Getty)
Bad Gary. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

Sabathia’s Long Leash
For a while now I’ve been saying I’d like see Joe Girardi have a shorter leash with CC Sabathia, but it just isn’t happening. Coming into this game opponents were hitting .289/.347/.485 against the big man from pitch No. 75 on, yet there he was, out there for 99 pitches as the game slipped out of reach. The O’s went 3-for-6 with a walk after Sabathia threw his 75th pitch. Sigh.

The Orioles had no answer for Sabathia through the first five innings. He held them to two singles and a walk in those first five innings, and one of the singles was an infield single. His first mistake came leading off the sixth, when Steve Pearce connected for a solo home run to break the scoreless tie. Sabathia rebounded to finish the inning before the wheels came off in the seventh.

To be fair, the Orioles didn’t hit Sabathia hard in that seventh inning. Jonathan Schoop poked a ground ball single the other way with one out, then Nolan Reimold reached on a weird infield single in which Castro went around the baserunner and missed the ball completely. Hard to explain. Just watch:

Nolan Reimolds CC Sabathia

Weird play. That put runners on first and second with two outs. Girardi left Sabathia in to get the left-on-left matchup against Hyun-Soo Kim, who CC struck out twice earlier in the game, but it didn’t work. Sabathia walked him on four pitches, loading the bases and ending his afternoon. Adam Warren came in and allowed a two-run single to Pearce to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 3-0 deficit.

Sabathia was charged with three runs on six hits and two walks in 6.2 innings. He did strike out eight. I don’t think I would have sent him back out for the seventh given a) his pitch count, b) the Pearce homer in the sixth, and c) the fact he was going through the lineup a third time. This isn’t the first time Girardi has left Sabathia in a little too long and watched it result in tack-on runs, and it won’t be the last unless he shortens up the leash. CC’s days of being a 100+ pitch monster are long over.

(Rich Schultz/Getty)
(Rich Schultz/Getty)

Leftovers
Down three in the eighth doesn’t exactly seem like “bring in the rookie to face the middle of the lineup in his second MLB appearance” territory, but Girardi went to Ben Heller in that spot, and sure enough Mark Trumbo took him deep for a two-run homer to make it 5-0 O’s. Heller faced six batters and retired two. Blake Parker had to bail him out.

Machado made three great defensive plays in this game. He had the tag on Sanchez in the fourth inning, then he made a diving stop on Castro’s hard-hit grounder later in the inning, and then in the eighth he robbed Torreyes with a diving stop. He dove into foul territory and threw across the diamond from his knees. What can you do? Machado’s gonna do that.

The Yankees had eight hits total, including two each by Sanchez and Torreyes. They also drew zero walks for the 12th time this season. That’s their second highest total of no-walk games this century. (They had 17 in 2013.)

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has both the box score and updated standings while MLB.com has the video highlights. The Yankees are again 3.5 games back of the second wildcard spot. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at 5.6% as of this writing. Here are our Bullpen Workload and Announcer Standings pages, and here’s the lame-o win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees are off to Kansas City for an important three-game series with the Royals. The two clubs are both vying for the second wildcard spot and have identical 67-62 records. (Kansas City is playing Sunday night though.) Michael Pineda and ex-Met Dillon Gee are the scheduled starters for Monday night’s opener.

DotF: Holder fans 12 in relief as Scranton clinches playoff spot

The minor league season is winding down, so let’s update the standings. But first, some notes:

  • OF Blake Rutherford is done for the season with a minor hamstring injury, reports Bryan Hoch. He should be good to go for Instructional League next month though. Pulaski’s season ends Thursday and there’s no reason to push it. Seems like the Pulaski social media person was sick of being asked about Rutherford’s status though. Rutherford finishes his pro debut with a .351/.415/.570 (169 wRC+) batting line and three homers in 33 games.
  • OF Clint Frazier has been placed on the 7-day DL with a hamstring strain, reports Kelsie Heneghan. That explains why he was lifted for a pinch-hitter last night. Hopefully it’s minor and Frazier can come back after the seven days and play in the postseason.
  • RHP Chance Adams has been shut down for the season, Double-A Trenton manager Bobby Mitchell told Matt Kardos. He reached his innings limit. Adams finishes the year with a 2.33 ERA (2.96 FIP) and a 29.1% strikeout rate in 127.1 total innings. He was a reliever before this season, remember. They don’t want to push him too far. Big loss for Trenton’s playoff rotation.
  • And finally, OF Jhalan Jackson made an appearance in today’s Prospect Report following last night’s five-hit performance, so make sure you check that out.

Triple-A Scranton (3-1 win over Rochester) the win clinches a postseason spot, which is cool … they’re 84-49 and have the best record in all of Triple-A … their regular season ends a week from tomorrow

  • LF Ben Gamel: 1-3, 1 R, 1 RBI
  • 2B Rob Refsnyder: 1-3, 1 BB
  • DH Chris Parmelee: 2-4, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI — tied the game with a solo homer, then gave them the lead with an RBI single
  • CF Mason Williams: 1-4
  • RF Jake Cave: 1-4, 1 K
  • RHP Bryan Mitchell: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1/0 GB/FB, 1 E (pickoff) — 53 of 84 pitches were strikes (63%) … I suppose he could come up when rosters expand on Thursday, though I’m guessing he’ll stay in Triple-A and pitch through the postseason to make up for all those innings he missed with the toe injury
  • LHP Tyler Webb: 1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0/1 GB/FB — 19 of 28 pitches were strikes (68%)
  • RHP Jonathan Holder: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K — 41 of 53 pitches were strikes (77%) … holy crap what a game … Holder struck out eleven straight batters at one point … the one hit was a pop-up that fell in because none of the infielders called for it too, so the one guy who did make contact (John Ryan Murphy!) didn’t square it up … the three pitchers combined for 22 strikeouts in nine innings

[Read more…]

Sunday Open Thread

This is the open thread for the remainder of the weekend. The Red Sox and Royals are the ESPN Sunday Night Game (Rodriguez vs. Ventura), plus there’s some preseason football on as well. Talk about those games or whatever else here. Go nuts.

Game 129: Finish The Sweep, For Once

(Christopher Pasatieri/Getty)
(Christopher Pasatieri/Getty)

The Yankees are rolling right now. They’ve won their last four games and outscored their opponents 37-10 in the process. They’re also now only 2.5 games back of the second wildcard spot, and a win over the O’s today would bring them to within 1.5 games. The Yankees haven’t been that close to a playoff spot since April 13th. April 13th! That was seven games into the season. Yeah, it’s been a while.

Of course, to get to within 1.5 games of a postseason spot today, the Yankees have to do something they haven’t done all season: sweep a three-game series. They have swept a four-game series this year — two of them, in fact (A’s and Angels) — but never once a little three-game series. They’re 0-6 in the third game when winning the first two games of a three-game series in 2016. Yuck. Change that today, fellas. Here is the Orioles’ lineup and here is the Yankees’ lineup:

  1. LF Brett Gardner
  2. CF Aaron Hicks
  3. DH Gary Sanchez
  4. 1B Mark Teixeira
  5. SS Didi Gregorius
  6. 2B Starlin Castro
  7. C Brian McCann
  8. RF Aaron Judge
  9. 3B Ronald Torreyes
    LHP CC Sabathia

It’s another nice and sunny afternoon in the Bronx. Pretty wonderful baseball weather. This afternoon’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the game.

DotF: Trenton clinches postseason spot with 15-inning win

Both SS Tyler Wade and LHP Jordan Montgomery were named the Double-A Eastern League Season All-Star Team, so congrats to them. OF Dustin Fowler could have easily made the All-Star Team too, but he’s not really a snub. The three outfielders picked for the team all had incredible years.

Triple-A Scranton (5-4 loss to Rochester in eleven innings) all they need to do to clinch a postseason spot is beat Rochester tomorrow or Monday

  • CF Ben Gamel: 1-5, 1 R, 2 K
  • LF Mason Williams: 1-5, 1 2B, 1 RBI
  • 3B Rob Refsnyder: 0-4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 E (throwing)
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — that’s his 20th homer of the season … his previous career high was eight back in 2011
  • DH Clint Frazier: 1-3, 1 BB — he was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the 11th, which is weird
  • RF Jake Cave: 0-4, 2 K
  • LHP Phil Coke: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 5/3 GB/FB — 54 of 74 pitches were strikes (73%)
  • LHP Dietrich Enns: 2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 25 of 40 pitches were strikes (63%) … he’s working out of the bullpen for now to control his innings … I bet he returns to the rotation for the postseason though
  • LHP Chasen Shreve: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2/2 GB/FB — 25 of 43 pitches were strikes (58%)
  • RHP Nick Goody: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 1/0 GB/FB — 17 of 33 pitches were strikes (52%), though one of the walks was intentional … he walked in the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th … Goody came into this game with one walk in 21.1 Triple-A innings this season
  • LHP James Pazos: 0.2 IP, zeroes, 2 K — eight pitches, six strikes

[Read more…]

Yankees 13, Orioles 5: Another Sanchez home run, another blowout win over the O’s


Source: FanGraphs

Gosh, do the Yankees look like a completely different team or what? They overhauled their roster earlier this month, mostly by calling kids up from the minors, and the result is a fun and exciting team that has become must see television. The Yankees blew the Orioles out for the second straight day Saturday afternoon, this time by the score of 13-5. It’s Saturday, so let’s bullet point this recap:

  • Constant Pressure: Unlike Friday night, when the Yankees took the lead thanks to one huge inning, they spread the offense out Saturday. They scored in six of eight offensive innings: one run in the first, three in the third, one in the fourth, four in the fifth, three in the sixth, and one in the eighth. The starting 4-9 hitters went a combined 14-for-26 (.535) with ten runs scored and ten runs driven in. That’ll do.
  • Chad Struggles: Not a great outing for Chad Green. He threw a ton of breaking balls — PitchFX says he threw 34 sliders and 27 four-seam fastballs — even though it was clear early on he wasn’t locating it well. The O’s are a fastball hitting team and Green stuck with his slider. He allowed four runs on seven hits (three homers) and two walks in 4.2 innings, and it could have been worse had he not escaped a bases loaded jam in the first. Shake it off, Chad.
  • All With Two Outs: The Yankees were down 2-1 heading into the third, and the first two batters of the inning made quick outs. It was looking like an easy 1-2-3 inning for Dylan Bundy, but New York responded with four straight two-out hits. Who are these people and what have they done with the Yankees? Starlin Castro singled in a run, Didi Gregorius stole home (!) when Matt Wieters threw to second on Castro’s steal attempt, and Brian McCann doubled in another run. Just like that, the 2-1 deficit became a 4-2 lead.
  • Too Many Homers: Following that nice two-out rally in the third, the Yankees did some yard work the next few innings. Gary Sanchez went deep yet again, this time for a solo shot into the short porch in the fourth. In the fifth, both Castro and Aaron Hicks clubbed long two-run homers. Sanchez’s just barely cleared the wall. Castro and Hicks went way deep. The three homers stretched the lead to 9-4. That still didn’t feel very comfortable given Baltimore’s dinger prowess.
  • All With No Outs: The Yankees officially turned the game into a laugher in the sixth inning. The first six batters they sent to the plate reached base. Two didn’t make contact (walk, hit-by-pitch) and one didn’t hit the ball out of the infield (infield single). McCann, Hicks, and Brett Gardner all singled in runs that inning. Baltimore pitchers needed 161 pitches to get the first 18 outs of the ballgame. What a job by the offense.
  • Leftovers: Sanchez is the first player in the history of the universe to hit eleven home runs in his first 22 MLB games. Not even the most optimistic of Sanchez fans saw this coming … everyone in the starting lineup had a hit and eight of the nine starters reached base multiple times. Gardner was the only exception … Tommy Layne (one inning), Adam Warren (1.1 innings), Tyler Clippard (one inning), and Kirby Yates (one inning) closed the game out without making it interesting … the Yankees have scored 10+ runs in back-to-back games for the first time since last August … they’ve scored 5+ runs in five straight games for the first time since September 2013.

Here are the box score, video highlights, and updated standings. With the win, the Yankees are only 2.5 games back of the Orioles for the second wildcard spot with five weeks to play. Unfortunately the Tigers, Mariners, Royals, and Astros are right there with them. Anyway, don’t miss our Bullpen Workload and Announcer Standings pages. The Yankees will try to finish the sweep Sunday afternoon, when CC Sabathia gets the ball against Kevin Gausman. RAB Tickets can get you in the door if you want to catch that game before the Yankees head out on the road.