Fan Confidence Poll: October 18th, 2010
Record Last Week: 1-1 (8 RS, 12 RA) tied at one with the Rangers in best-of-seven ALCS
Season Record: 95-67 (859 RS, 693 RA, 98-64 Pythag. record), finished one game back in AL East, won Wild Card
Schedule This Week: ALCS Game Three (Mon. vs. Rangers), ALCS Game Four (Tues. vs. Rangers), ALCS Game Five (Weds. vs. Rangers), ALCS Game Six (Fri. @ Rangers, if necessary), ALCS Game Seven (Sat. @ Rangers, if necessary)
Top stories from last week:
- After sweeping the Twins out of the ALDS last week, the Yanks had to wait a few days before their ALCS opponent was set. That question was answered when the Rangers beat the Rays in Game Five on Tuesday, setting up a series between two clubs with strong ties, and I’m not just talking about Cliff Lee. A few hours before the game, Yankee fans said they’d prefer to face the Rangers.
- The Yanks announced there ALCS roster a day or so later, and confirmed that A.J. Burnett will in fact make a start. They played some simulated games during the week to stay fresh.
- The ALCS kicked off with a bang on Friday, as the Yanks mounted a late inning rally to grab victory from the jaws of defeat in Game One. Marcus Thames had the big hit, and we knew he’d be important in the series.
- There would be no comeback in Game Two the next day. The Rangers pounded Phil Hughes and won the game, essentially putting the Yanks in the same spot they’d have been in if they’d won the AL East. Despite the loss, Burnett is still on track to start Game Four.
- The Royals will listen to trade offers for Zack Greinke this winter, so get ready for four months of that.
- Jesus Montero was ranked the fourth best prospect in the Triple-A International League by Baseball America.
- The Yanks are putting an end to homophobic crowd chants.
- Yankee Stadium staple Freddy Schuman, better known as Freddy Sez, passed away.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Winning the division in a roundabout way
As the Yankees stumbled through the final month of the season, going 13-17 with a .333 team wOBA and 4.56 team FIP, a division lead that once stood at four games vanished. Joe Girardi took perhaps more criticism than any manager of a playoff team in recent history, as fans and media alike chastised him for what they perceived to be mixed signals. Girardi claimed that he and his team still had their sights set on the division, but the actions often didn’t agree. Whether it was rest for regulars or yet another Chad Gaudin appearance, it just didn’t appear that winning the division was the priority.
In the end the Rays beat the Yanks out for the division, capturing the AL East by just one game on the final day of the season. Some were upset that New York failed to win the division for the second time in three years, others had accepted what seemed like an inevitable fate by then. Instead of starting the playoffs from the comfort of home against the Twins, they were forced to travel to Minnesota and start on the road. The Rays enjoyed some home cooking and had their opponent come to them.
Two weeks after the end of the regular of the season, none of that matters anymore. The Yankees crushed the Twins in the ALDS like the fat kid at the party eating the last piece of birthday cake, and the Rangers pushed the Rays to the limit before defeating them in five games, winning all three games at Tropicana Field. Winning the AL East didn’t hurt the Yanks any more than it helped the Rays. The first two games in the ALCS were then played in Texas, with the Yanks and Rangers winning one each.
So now here we are. After all the criticism and stress of September (and early October), the Yankees in the exact same position they would have been in if they’d won the division in the first place. They’re about to start a best-of-five series against the Rangers with home field advantage in their favor. The only difference is that the first team to win three games goes to the World Series rather than the ALCS. This is it, this is what everyone was rooting for when they wanted the Yanks to go all out to win the division. Everyone upset over settling for the Wild Card got what they wanted anyway, they just had to wait another week.
For a team like the Yankees, one that competes for the World Championship year after year, division titles are nothing more than window dressing. It’s nice in a “hey look at us” kind of way, but it’s just step one of the process. Instead of focusing on that goal, Girardi set his team up to be in the best possible position for the postseason, and so far it’s worked. They’ve won four of five playoff games despite playing just once at home, and everyone is as healthy and able to contribute as can be. For all the flack he took, there’s no arguing now that his moves last month were the right ones, Wild Card team or not.
No one remembers division titles, but they all remember World Championships.
Open Thread: Back Home
The end result of the first two games of the ALCS definitely favors the Yankees, though the starting pitching they received makes it feel like quite the opposite. For all intents and purposes, it’s a best-of-five series now, and the first three games will be played in Yankee Stadium. Regardless of who’s pitching when, that’s not a bad situation for the Yanks to be in at all.
Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. Game Two of the NLCS (Oswalt vs. Sanchez) starts at 8:00pm ET on FOX, and the late NFL game has the Colts at the Redskins (8:20pm, NBC). Talk about whatever, just be cool.
Laird homers in Phoenix loss
These Arizona Fall League night games are killing me. I can’t remember them ever playing this many, at least not this easy in the season. Anyway, let’s get you caught up on the last few days, plus the action from Latin America …
Phoenix Desert Dogs (11-4 loss to Scottsdale on Friday)
Austin Romine, DH: 1 for 4, 3 K
Brandon Laird, LF: 3 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – I suspect he’ll have a few more games like this considering the extreme offensive run environment
George Kontos: 1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – 17 of 26 pitches were strikes (65.4%) … hey, at least he struck out the side
Phoenix Desert Dogs (10-4 loss to Surprise on Saturday)
Jose Pirela, 2B: 0 for 4, 1 BB, 2 K
There are no games on the schedule for today. Keith Law got a look at Craig Heyer the other day and wrote up a little blurb, but you need an Insider subscription to read it. Here’s the important stuff…
Heyer throws a heavy fastball at 90-92 from a slot just below 3/4, generating a lot of groundballs, and he works quickly to try to keep hitters off balance. His slider was fringy at 83-84 with a tendency to get long and sweepy, which can be a problem for pitchers with lower arm slots, but if he can tighten that up he’s a valuable relief prospect, but would need a third pitch to use against lefties if he’s going to end up a starter.
Heyer is an extreme strike thrower, walking just 14 batters unintentionally in 164.1 IP over the last two seasons (0.77 BB/9), so it’s good to get a pair of eyes on him and confirm that there’s actual potential here. He’s not particularly young, 25 next month, but the Yanks’ 2007 22nd rounder has put himself on the prospect map over the last two years. Good for him.
And now for the other winter leagues…
Mexican Winter League
Justin Christian: 4 G, 5 for 18, 1 RBI, 2 SB (.278/.278/.278)
Walt Ibarra: 4 G, 5 for 16, 5 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SB (.313/.389/.375)
Francisco Gil: 2 G, 1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP (36.00 ERA, 4.00 WHIP)
Eric Wordekemper: 2 G, 1.1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (20.25 ERA, 2.25 WHIP)
Venezuelan Winter League
Jose Gil: 4 G, 8 for 16, 4 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 K (.500/.500/.875)
Luis Nunez: 2 G, 2 for 7, 1 R (.286/.286/.286)
Marcos Vechionacci: 5 G, 3 for 16, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 SB (.188/.235/.250)
Josh Schmidt: 1 G, 1 GS, 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)
Edwar Gonzalez, Juan Marcano, Emerson Landoni, Eduardo Sosa, and Jesus Montero are all playing in the VWL as well, but have yet to appear in a game. The Dominican Winter League rosters aren’t out yet, but they will be soon. The season starts on Friday. Same deal with the Puerto Rican League as well, season starts the same day and everything.
Football Open Thread
The Giants are playing the Lions (1pm ET), the Jets are in the Denver (4pm ET). If you’re a Cablevision subscriber, you’re out of luck with the Giants. Still no resolution between them and FOX. Bastards. Chat about any of all of the games here.
Rangers pound Hughes to tie ALCS at one
Coming off Friday’s thrilling come-from-behind win, the Yankees had every reason to feel good about themselves when they showed up to the park for Game Two on Saturday. The Rangers, on the other hand, had every reason to doubt themselves, but to their credit they put it all in the rear-view mirror and jumped all over the Yanks to tie the ALCS at one in blowout fashion.
A Hughes Disappointment
Two games, two terrible performances by Yankee starting pitchers. The bullpen and offense was able to bail CC Sabathia out in Game One, but no such luck for Phil Hughes in Game Two. Texas forced the issue in the very first inning, with Josh Hamilton and Elvis Andrus combining to literally steal a run (more on that in a bit) while Hughes struck out the side. He looked strong in the first inning, very strong in fact, but boy were we wrong.
The Rangers scored another two runs in the second, the first on a David Murphy solo homer, the other on a Michael Young double down the rightfield line following singles by Mitch Moreland and Andrus. The two runs were actually the two largest WPA swings of the game, with Murphy’s homer coming in at +.092 for Texas, Young’s double +.083. A three run deficit in the second inning isn’t the end of the world, the Yanks proved that in Game One, but Hughes’ pitch count was already over 40 and the Rangers’ batters were making nothing but solid contact.
Texas added another pair of runs in the third when three of the first four batters of the inning – Nelson Cruz, Murphy, and Bengie Molina – doubled. Hughes managed to escape that inning and throw a scoreless fourth, but Joe Girardi curiously sent him back out for the fifth with his pitch count approaching 90. Cruz led off the inning with a double and Ian Kinsler followed with a triple, and that was it for young Mr. Hughes.
The final line is ugly (4 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 WP) but even more infuriating was Hughes’ inability to put batters away with two strikes. Seven (seven!) of Texas’ ten hits off Phil came with two strikes, and he allowed runners to reach scoring position in every inning but the fourth. The Rangers fouled off more than a quarter of his 88 pitches, unsurprising when 68 of those pitches were fastballs. Hughes was absolutely dreadful, worse than Sabathia was the day before. He gave his team basically no chance to win.
Stranded
It didn’t feel like it when the game was in progress, but the Yankees had a few opportunities to push some runs and just didn’t get it done. They left two runners on in the second, third, sixth, seventh, and ninth, plus one runner in both the fifth and eighth innings. Of the seven (!!!) walks issued by Rangers’ pitchers, zero came around to score. All told, the Yanks left a dozen runners on base and had just one hit in eleven at-bats with runners in scoring position, a single by Lance Berkman who got thrown out foolishly trying to stretch it into a double. They had opportunities, but just couldn’t cash them in.
Robbie Cano Is BOOM!
It wasn’t all bad for the Yanks’ offense; Robbie Cano was a one man wrecking crew all afternoon. He ripped a line drive in his first at-bat that Nelson Cruz against the wall, then doubled over Josh Hamilton’s head his next time up (he came around to score the Yanks’ first run of the game), then capped it off solo homer into the second deck in his third trip to the plate (the only other run they’d score). Cano also made the final out of the game, a rocket to the opposite field that Cruz somehow managed to catch on the run on the warning track. I tweeted that if the game was played at Yankee Stadium, Cano would have had three homers, and that was only semi-hyperbolic. Those first three balls were just crushed.
Leftovers
Two stupid mistakes on the Rangers’ first run, when Andrus stole home on Hamilton’s attempted steal of second: Jorge Posada actually throwing through to second with the speedy runner on third, then Cano not tagging Hamilton for the out. The run probably would have scored anyway, but at the least inning would have been over. Hamilton was intentionally trying to get in a run down, take the free out. Still, that’s a Little League play. Posada has to get his head out of his ass.
No excuses, but I’m not sure why Hughes was sent back out for the fifth. Yes he had just thrown a very good fourth inning, but he was clearly laboring and the bullpen was full of rested relievers with the day off tomorrow. He allowed the double and triple before giving way to Joba Chamberlain, who nearly escaped the jam with a pair of strikeouts before Moreland slapped a grounder through the left side. I thought Joba looked extremely good, with a fastball that bumped 96 and a slider that garnered two swings-and-misses for strikeouts.
In fact, the entire bullpen as a whole was strong yet again. They combined to throw four innings, allowed just two hits, walked three (one on purpose), and struck out six. Sergio Mitre even made an appearance, his first in 13 days. If nothing else, Joba, David Robertson, and Boone Logan were able to get some tune-up work in after the long layoff.
Every Yankee in the starting lineup reached base at least once except for Brett Gardner, who went 0-for-2 before being lifted for a pinch hitter. Curtis Granderson saw 27 pitches in just four trips to the plate. They also forced rookie closer Neftali Feliz to throw 30 pitches in the ninth (just 16 strikes), which has to put a little doubt in every Rangers’ fan mind should he pitch in an actual high leverage situation this series.
I’m not going to make a big deal out of it because it’s a cop out, but Tony Randazzo’s strike zone was awful. Here’s the scatter plot if you don’t believe me. The green markers are balls, the red called strikes.
One last thing to remember: splitting the first two games on the road is generally considered a success. Things seem worse than they really are because Sabathia and Hughes were awful, but those kinds of efforts are the exception for those two, not the norm. The Yanks grabbed homefield advantage from Texas and now head home to play the next three in Yankee Stadium. Short of winning both games in Arlington, this is the best situation they could have hoped for.
WPA Graph & Box Score
No comeback this time. MLB.com has the box score and video, FanGraphs all that other stuff.
Up Next
It’s a best-of-five series now, but the two teams will take Sunday off before resuming play at 8:00pm ET on Monday. Andy Pettitte goes against Cliff Lee in a matchup of lefties.