Spring Training Game Thread: Thank Mo Baseball’s Back
Ah, the first game thread of the year. We’ve been waiting for this day ever since Jon VanEvery hit that walk-off single at Fenway Park off Jose Veras in the Yanks’ final game of 2008. Who cares if today’s game doesn’t count, it’ll be great just to see the boys in action again.
But wait, it gets better! We’ve got ourselves a primo pitching matchup this afternoon: Phil Hughes vs Rays’ phenom Wade Davis (#32 on BA’s Top 100). The last time these two met was Game Four of the International League Championship Series last season, when Hughes thoroughly outpitched Davis and clinched the league title for Triple-A Scranton. It really doesn’t get any better than this, does it?
The game is on YES, with first pitch is scheduled for 1:15. If you miss the live broadcast, don’t worry, they’re going to replay it at 7pm. Here’s the starting nine:
Damon, LF
Jeter, SS
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Cano, 2B
Nady, RF
Posada, DH
Molina, C
Melky, CF
Scheduled Pitchers: Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, Jon Albaldejo, Mark Melancon
Looks like we’ll get multiple innings each out of the Phils, maybe Albie too. Anyone know anything about this Melancon kid?
Photo Credit: Steve Nesius, Reuters Pictures
Stop the presses: Hank & Reggie have an opinion
So Alex Rodriguez and Reggie Jackson went out to dinner the other night, and Reggie had some advice for Alex because, you know, he’s dealt with this kind of PED thing before. Coming jointly from Hank Steinbrenner, the invisible executive, Mr. October told A-Rod to “hit the baseball and hit it when it counts.” Hit the baseball. And hit it when it counts. When it counts? When is that? Seems to me like it would be, I dunno, ALL THE FREAKING TIME!!! Reggie also some other words for A-Rod, saying he’s disappointed in him and that when he retired he was one of the best of all time and is sad to see his career accomplishment tarnished. You really didn’t think Reggie could go that long without talking about himself, did you? Even Neyer agrees this is retarded.
Open Thread: Girardi names the rotation
We’ve had a pretty good idea of what the Yanks’ 2008 rotation would look for weeks now, but Joe Girardi made it official today. CC Sabathia gets the ball on Opening Day, and will be followed by Chien-Ming Wang, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain. I’m glad to see Wang – the senior member of the rotation in terms of consecutive seasons with the team – get the nod for the two hole.
HowEVA, the more interesting story is that the plan calls for Joba to make roughly 30 starts. It’s just a plan, and I think they’re using term loosely at that. You know they’re not going to push him too hard past his innings limit. I think that more than anything, this means they won’t skip him so much on off-days early in the year just to make sure he gets those innings in. When he hits his cap, worry about it then. The playoffs are far from a given in that division.
Anywho, the Yanks actually played a game today, beating the Jays 6-1. Brett Gardner hit a homer on the second pitch of the first plate appearance of the preseason, so helloooooooo World Series! A-Rod hit a two-run jack and drew a pair of walks, Derek Jeter singled, Robbie Cano singled and was hit by a pitch, and Nick Swisher walked twice, once with the bases loaded after an 0-2 count. Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero each picked up a hit after entering the game in the later innings. Brett Tomko started a threw two strong innings, and the prospect quartet of Chris Garcia, Mike Dunn, Steven Jackson and David Robertson combined to throw four shutout innings, the only baserunner coming on a D-Rob walk. They’ll play the Rays tomorrow at 1pm, and the game will be on YES.
Here’s your open thread for the night. The Rangers, Islanders, Knicks and Nets are all in action tonight, and MLB Network will be carrying the Red Sox-Twins game at 8pm. Have fun.
Note: Dave Kaplan, Director of the Yogi Berra Museum on the campus on Montclair State, asked us to mention that some of the Baseball Prospectus guys will be making an appearance to talk about the upcoming season on Sunday, March 1st at 2pm. For more info, call 973-655-6891.
Photo Credit: Reuters Pictures
Will Cano rebound?
One of the biggest goats of the 2008 season was second baseman Robbie Cano, who saw his offensive output drop from .306-.353-.488 with a .358 wOBP in 2007 to just .271-.305-.410 and a measly .307 wOBP last year. Many a pundit pointed to his newfound financial security as the culprit, others pointed to Larry Bowa’s departure. Whatever it was, the Yankees need Cano to rebound not just for 2009’s sake, but for the sake of the team’s future because he’s their only established position player closer to his 25th birthday than his 30th.
Dan Turkenkopf of Beyond the Box Score took a look at what could have been the reasons for Cano’s down year, and whether or not there’s rebound potential. Turkenkopf looked at three statistical components of Cano’s year, so let’s summarize:
- Contact Rate: This was unchanged compared to past year’s, but it’s not the best way to measure offensive performance.
- BABIP: Cano’s BABIP dropped 45 points from 2007, down to .286, indicating that he might have run into some bad luck. Simple regression to the mean (.323 career BABIP) indicates bounceback potential.
- Isolated Power: Of the hits Cano was able to pick up last year, not many dropped in for extra bases. His IsoP bombed 43 points to just .139, well below the ~.180 level he was at in 2006 and 2007. Expecting a return to his career mark isn’t as simple as it is with BABIP.
The article notes that we should expect Cano to perform better at the plate in 2009 than he did in 2008, but matching his 2006-2007 levels might be too much to expect. The drop in IsoP is troubling, so that’s something we’ll have to watch.
One thing that should be mentioned is the late season change to Cano’s batting stance, something Joe touched on back in October. While we can’t draw anything conclusive from such a small sample, Cano hit the snot out of the ball after the change, which if nothing else is cause for some optimism. Also, it’s worth noting that 2008 Robbie Cano hit almost like 2007 Robbie Cano for a pretty big chunk of the season, going .301-.329-.451 from May 8th on.
Aside from the offense though, Robbie’s defensive value was way down last year. Using the +/- system, Cano went from a +22 defender in 2007 to a -13 defender in 2008, a 35 run play (!!!) swing. Fangraphs has his 2007 defense valued at +10.8 runs, and his 2008 defense at -7.2 runs, a much more modest 18 run dropoff. We can’t say for sure if this was Cano taking his struggles at the plate into the field, or if he lost a step in his range, or if he’s just another Lazy Latin American Player™, but it’s something he needs to improve. There’s no excuses really, he’s only 26 and basically in his athletic prime. All it takes is hard work.
As the stats indicate, the offensive demise of Robinson Cano has been greatly exaggerated. The Yanks are on the hook for a minimum of $27M over the next three years, so they need him to get back to being that 4-5 win player he was and can be.
Photo Credit: DC Products
Some guy pretends to be Andy Phillips, nails a porn star
Heh, so that’s a headline I never thought I’d have to type. Apparently some guy posing as former Yank and all-around good guy Andy Phillips managed to lure the adult film actress known as Delia to a motel in NYC just before New Years, where they presumably performed unspeakable acts. But wait, it gets better. The Andy Phillips imposter also posed as Carl Pavano, Greg Dobbs, and agent Jordan Kapler, and it wasn’t until after their motel romp that Mrs. Delia thought something weird was going on. She filed a police report against the real Andy Phillips, and now MLB’s Department of Investigations is trying to sort this whole thing out after Phillips’ agent brought it to their attention. I’m giving Andy the benefit of doubt because all we’ve ever heard about the guy is that he’s a class act and a tremendous human being, but this is just weird. And hilarious.
Grading the Yanks’ veteran pitching acquisitions
This offseason was like many others for the Yanks, who brought in a pair of veteran starting pitchers like so many times before. The Baseball Crank took a look at all of the veteran pitchers the Yanks have picked up each offseason dating all the way back to 1975, and concludes basically what you’d expect: sometimes they’ve struck gold, and other times they haven’t (to put it nicely). The highlight for me was being reminded of just how great Jimmy Key was for the Bombers, even though he never seems to get any credit. Make sure you check it out, lots of interesting stuff in there. (h/t Pinto)