Steven Tydings, Author at River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Trade Market: Cole Hamels

July 5, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

After a weak turn through the rotation, the Yankees find themselves in pursuit of a starter. Right now, the playoff rotation is Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, a hopefully healthy Masahiro Tanaka and a gigantic question mark.

With that in mind, is 34-year-old veteran lefty Cole Hamels a fit for that empty rotation spot?

Current performance

The Cole Hamels of 2018 isn’t the same pitcher that was a top-line starter in Philadelphia from 2008-2014 (outside of 2009) and he’s not even quite the same pitcher that was an All-Star for Texas in 2016. His 4.05 ERA is only better than his rookie and 2017 seasons and his 5.00 FIP is a career worst. He’s lost a little bit of velocity and he has changed up his pitch mix (more on that in the next section).

More worrisome than a losing 1-2 mph on his fastball is his control and home run issues. His K-BB rate is actually better than his 2016 All-Star season, but he leads baseball with 10 hit batters and has given up 20 home runs, second in the majors. His groundball rate has declined to 43.8 percent.

If you’re looking for good news, 14 of Hamels’ 20 home runs allowed have come at home in Texas and he has significant splits home and away (5.83 ERA in 54 innings at home vs. 2.05 ERA in 48 1/3 innings away). While Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly the Polo Grounds, it’s a better environment for pitchers than Globe Life Park. Even if Hamels has been issuing meatballs, you’d expect his 20.6 percent HR rate to decline.

Hamels had a 3.41 ERA heading into his last two starts but gave up 11 runs over 10 innings vs. Padres and White Sox at home. Yikes. 18 hits and two home runs in that span, though he’s also produced a 12-1 K/BB ratio at the same time.

The southpaw looked sharp against the Yankees in May and has performed markedly better against teams with a .500+ winning percentage (3.05 ERA in 73 2/3 innings). He has a fine overall postseason track record, albeit he was rocked in 2016 by the Blue Jays. He has a 3.48 career playoff ERA and is 10 years removed from NLCS and WS MVP.

Current Stuff

Hamels has an impressive pitch mix in that he can reliably go to 4-5 different pitches in any count. As you can see in the graph below, he throws five different pitches at least 15 percent of the time. Four of them are variations of his fastball (four-seamer, sinker, cutter and changeup) to go with his slow curveball. He’s also experimented with a slider this year.

The curveball and cutter have been his most effective pitches this season, though his changeup has suddenly gone from his best pitch to a below average offering. He’s like a lot of veteran pitchers, or current pitchers in general, and has gone away from his four-seamer, eschewing it for the cutter and sinker. It makes sense considering Hamels has seen the worst results on the four-seamer of his career.

The decline in his fastball likely is related to his declining velocity. At 91.2 mph, his fastball is down 0.8 mph from last season and 1.4 mph from two years ago. His four-seamer averaged 91.2 during his sterling 2012 season, but he’s lost 2 mph off his cutter and one off his changeup in that span.

Injury History

Hollywood Hamels missed two months with an oblique injury last season, yet his health has been a major plus for him during his career. From 2008 to 2016, he made at least 30 starts every season and averaged 210 innings a season. He’s on pace for another 30-start, 190+ inning season this year.

He missed one start with neck stiffness this season, had a minor groin issue in 2015 and had elbow surgery during the 2011 offseason. However, he’s rebounded well from each of those injuries.

Contract Status

Hamels is in the final season of a seven-year contract that pays him a little north of $22.7 million annually. The complication here is that Hamels has a $20 million team option for 2019 (with a $6 million buyout and a vesting option that won’t vest). Hamels has a partial no-trade clause which includes the Yankees and he could invoke the clause unless a team picks up the option.

What Would it Take?

One presumes the Rangers aren’t looking to simply salary dump Hamels and won’t seek relief in exchange for a lesser prospect package. While Hamels’ performance this season hasn’t been that of No. 2 starter, Texas will likely shoot for something befitting that. Rental starters with big names/contracts haven’t moved often at recent deadlines.

In 2015, David Price cost a top 50 prospect (Daniel Norris) plus an upper-levels LHP and lower levels LHP. Jaime Garcia cost a lower levels starter in 2017 one trade and a solid Double-A starter that wouldn’t have made the Yankees’ 40-man roster and a Triple-A depth arm.

Hamels will be somewhere in between those deals. Maybe a 2-3 player package headlined by Chance Adams? All my trade proposals are questionable at best.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

Hmmm… I’d lean towards no. Is he better than Sonny Gray and easier to trust in a playoff start than one of the Yankees’ rookie starters? Sure. However, I’m not convinced he’s enough of an upgrade to justify the package someone with his name and previous track record would require. He probably doesn’t slot ahead of CC Sabathia or Masahiro Tanaka in a playoff series. I’d rather stick with what the Yankees have and go for a lesser rental (J.A. Happ, anyone?), particularly if Hamels insists on the Bombers picking up his option for 2019.

Aroldis Chapman and the improvement in his seldom-used slider

June 27, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

After enduring the worst season of his career last year, Aroldis Chapman is back to doing Aroldis Chapman things on the mound this year. He has a 1.29 ERA. He threw a pitch 104.8 mph last week. He’s striking out nearly two batters an inning and looking dang near flawless while doing so.

But at age 30, Chapman actually has changed in one noticeable way: His slider.

Watch it dive out of the zone here.

And here, too.

You can’t teach an old dog new tricks and for Chapman, that’s mostly true. Since 2015, he’s thrown 77.6 percent fastballs, 12th highest among qualified relievers. He’s thrown 76.9 percent this year. He’s still going to pump in fastball after fastball for the most part and be pretty darn effective doing so. He’s gone to a sinker a little bit more, but it’s still a lot of velocity.

However, he’s used his slider more in 2018 (22.9 percent) than he had in each of the last three seasons despite throwing it 1.7 mph slower than in 2017 (For reference, his four-seamer is 1.0 mph slower this year). There’s something different there.

Furthermore, it’s been much more effective. Chapman has struck out 23 batters on the slider, one more than all of 2017 despite throwing it 55 fewer times. He’s got a whiff percentage of 60 percent with the pitch, his best mark since 2012. Batters are hitting just .161 against it with just one extra-base hit (Maikel Franco’s homer on Monday).

So how exactly has the pitch changed?

First, it’s moving a lot less vertically. Throughout his career, he’s received between 3.19 and 4.94 inches of vertical break on the slider. This year? Just 0.95 inches.

Secondly, he’s gotten it to move more horizontally. He hadn’t averaged more than -4.91 inches since 2010, but now he’s up to -6.00 inches of break. This thing is moving!

If you want to compare it to last year, here you go. Check out the first strikeout in this clip below. The slider dives down much more than the ones bookending this post.

Of course, he’s gotten crazy movement on it in the past. But, as I mentioned before, he’s also used it a tad bit more. He relied on it heavily in March and April, going to it nearly 30 percent of the time. Since then, his slider usage is more in line with the last couple of seasons. He also seems to use the slider more for longer outings.

But the slider has had an interesting effect on hitters. Not only is it producing more swings and misses, it’s a worm-killer. On the off-chance a hitter makes contact with the Chapman’s slider, they’ve been pounding it into the ground, as shown by the average launch angle. This is where the pitch really differs from previous seasons.

In the short term, these developments mean nothing but a few marginal swings and misses. Chapman’s bread is still buttered with his fastball and that won’t change until hitters can catch up to it on a regular basis. Hitters aren’t going to go up looking slider because Chapman simply doesn’t throw it enough nor is it potentially as lethal as his fastball. Furthermore, part of the slider’s effectiveness is no doubt because of its infrequent use.

However, as his fastball continues its gradual decline in both velocity and effectiveness, Chapman will need to change as a pitcher. That moment won’t be this year and likely won’t be next year, but it should come by the end of this contract — presuming he doesn’t opt out. He’s already on the wrong side of 30, after all.

When the moment comes, he’ll need to do more than exchange his four-seamer for a sinker/two-seamer and the development of his slider will be key. Perhaps he’ll revive his long-forgotten curveball and changeup from his days as a starter. I’d bet on him moving to a more slider-heavy approach and if any of his results from this season are sustainable, it could give his career extra life.

For now, the slider is a secondary, barely even necessary, tool. It’s a nice pitch to have in your back pocket, particularly now that it is more effective than it’s been in Chapman’s stay in the Bronx. No hitter is going to see it coming when they’re prepping for 100+ mph cheese and that’s how he can sneak the slider by hitters, even if it’s over the middle of the plate.

Still, every pitcher needs something in terms of secondary pitches and if an improved slider indicates an evolution for Chapman, then perhaps the strides he’s made in 2018 are here to stay.

6/25 to 6/27 Series Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

June 25, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Get ready for the Odubel bat flips. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

The Yankees trip to Tampa? Yuck. Back closer to home, the Bombers make a stop down I-95 at Citizens Bank Park to face the Phillies. The Phils are coming off a Sunday Night Baseball game in Washington D.C. that lasted until 12:30 in the morning.

The Last Time They Met

It’s been 12 years since the Yankees visited CBP during the regular season and three years since they last played the Phillies, when Philadelphia took two of three in the Bronx on June 22-24, 2015.

Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia and Dellin Betances were each lit up by a rebuilding Phillies squad over the first two games, producing an 11-8 and an 11-6 loss.
Then-rookie Maikel Franco was the culprit for a lot of those runs. He went 6-for-8 with 1 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 BB and 1 HBP in the first two games.
Ivan Nova returned from Tommy John surgery to throw 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 10-2 win to salvage the series. Alex Rodriguez took Cole Hamels deep in the finale.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

The Phillies’ infield depth is shot at the moment with J.P. Crawford (broken left hand), Pedro Florimon (foot surgery) and Jesmuel Valentin (paternity leave) all away from the team right now. Valentin will likely return by the end of this series, but Franco slipped on first base and left Sunday’s game, so he may be unable to play early in this series.

SP Jerad Eickhoff (lat, hand) is on the 60-day DL while relievers Luis Garcia (wrist) and Pat Neshek (shoulder) are on the shelf as well.

Their Story So Far

The Phillies are surprise contenders in the NL East, coming into this series at 41-34. They currently hold an NL Wild Card spot. Despite some early-season hiccups, Gabe Kapler has acquitted himself well as the manager. The team smoothly added 1B Carlos Santana and RHP Jake Arrieta in the offseason and has the payroll flexibility/cadre of prospects to trade in order to add more at the deadline.

Aaron Nola has fronted a rotation that has surprised many and been a large reason why the team is so good. The bullpen has held the team back some. In the lineup, Franco has been beleaguered at the plate and Scott Kingery hasn’t found his bearings yet. However, Odubel Herrera has been killing the ball recently and Rhys Hoskins is in the midst of a strong June.

Lineup We Might See

1. 2B Cesar Hernandez (.265/.376/.390, 113 wRC+)
2. LF Rhys Hoskins (.257/.379/.478, 133 wRC+)
3. CF Odubel Herrera (.305/.358/.505, 134 wRC+)
4. 1B Carlos Santana (.226/.357/.441, 115 wRC+)
5. RF Nick Williams (.239/.306/.443, 100 wRC+)
6. SS Scott Kingery (.224/.279/.329, 65 wRC+)
7. 3B Maikel Franco (.256/.300/.423, 91 wRC+)
8. C Jorge Alfaro (.242/.288/.382, 75 wRC+)
9. Pitcher’s Spot (.153/.189/.204, 5 wRC+)

Aaron Altherr often gets starts as part of the outfield platoon. Franco is hurt, so Mitch Walding could take a start at third base. Finally, Andrew Knapp and Alfaro each get starts behind the plate.

Best mascot in baseball? (Mitchell Leff/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Vince Velasquez
Vinny Velo is supremely talented but his production fluctuates wildly. He’s 11th among MLB starters with 10.87 K/9 and has struck out as many as 12 in a game this season. He also has a propensity to walk a few too many batters and gives up 1.34 homers per nine. He allowed 10 runs a few starts ago against the Brewers. Yikes.

His typical start is 5-6 innings, heavily featuring a mid-90s, a low-80s curve and a mid-80s slider. In the past, he’s struggled heavily to go deep into games and has only eclipsed 100 pitches twice this year. It seems like he’ll either have a no-hitter through 4-5 innings or be lit up for 4-5 runs by the middle innings.

Last Outing (vs. STL on June 19) – 6.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 8 K, 2 HR

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Jake Arrieta
Arrieta has had a weird season since coming over the Cubs in the offseason. The 32-year-old righty has a 3.42 ERA over 79 innings, but he’s only struck out 54 batters. Through May, batters had just a .601 OPS off Arrieta, but he’s struggled in May, giving up five homers in four starts while walking seven batters in his last three outings. In June, batters are hitting a crisp .284/.359/.494 off the veteran. Yikes.

He lives in the low-90s, high-80s with his sinker and cutter/slider, mixing in his curve and change a combined 20 percent of the time. His sinker has produced some high groundball numbers, which is why he’s produced a respectable ERA thus far. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the park is the key for him.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on June 20) – 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 HR

Wednesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Cessa vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Though it’s early, Zach Eflin appears to have broken out in 2018. The 24-year-old has mid-90s fastball and he’s eschewed his bowling ball of a sinker for more four-seamers, changeups and sliders this season. Like so many in our current league, he’s started to strikeout batters, though he’s also limiting homers like he never has before.

I won’t forget when Eflin gave up four homers to the Reds last May, was demoted after the game and ready to own up to his struggles to reporters right after the game. No pouting. He knew he needed to work on his game in the minors and he’s showing his talents off now. He’d had already overcome surgery on both knees in one offseason.

He’s won each of his four starts thus far in May, though he’s only gotten into the seventh inning in two of nine starts this year and into the sixth in four of nine.

Last Outing (at WSH on June 22) – 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

The bullpen as a whole has an ERA above 5.00 in June and has probably been the Achilles heel for this team. Kapler employs a closer-by-committee approach after Opening Day closer Hector Neris was demoted to Triple-A. Seven different players have a save for the Phillies, including rookie Seranthony Dominguez. He averages 98 mph on his fastball and has been the Phillies’ best reliever, though he’s started to experience his first hiccups.

The slider-heavy RHP Edubray Ramos has been highly effective while veteran Tommy Hunter has struggled. LHP Adam Morgan has strong stuff but has middling results. Rookie RHP Victor Arano and Yacksel Rios have been OK in relatively low leverage outings. RHP Austin Davis is the main long relief option while LHP Zac Curtis could be long relief or a LOOGY depending on the night.

Dominguez and Hunter have pitched each of the last two nights while Arano, Curtis, Ramos, Davis and Rios all pitched on Sunday.

Yankees Connection

Rob Thomson, who spent the last 28 years as a part of the Yankees organization, is the bench coach for Gabe Kapler. The nephew of former Yankee Al Leiter, Mark Leiter Jr. is in the minors. Third baseman Maikel Franco was a Yankee target as an international free agent, but the Bombers were outbid by the Phillies by $5,000.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

Odubel Herrera! You can almost guarantee you’ll see one highlight catch or drop and an impressive bat flip by the end of Monday out of him. The one-time All-Star looks like he’ll be making a return appearance to the Midsummer Classic. The former Rule 5 pick may just get some MVP votes this year, too.
Besides Herrera, the Phillies are one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Hoskins is a first baseman by trade playing left field while Kingery is normally a second baseman yet has taken over short in Crawford’s absence. However, Jorge Alfaro has a cannon behind the plate like Gary Sanchez.
The Phillie Phanatic is a gem. Let’s hope no Yankees get hurt by his mighty hot dog cannon.

6/14 to 6/17 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

June 14, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Wilson Ramos and Mallex Smith (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

After splitting with the Nationals, the Yankees welcome the Rays for four games after not playing Tampa for over two months.

The Last Time They Met

Somehow, the Yankees and Rays have only played two games this season. The Yankees swept a two-game set to start their 2018 home slate on April 3-4.

Opening Day was snowed out in a throwback to 1996, perhaps a good omen for things to come. Once things got underway, Didi Gregorius had a day to remember with eight RBI and two three-run homers in an 11-4 win.
Giancarlo Stanton had a forgettable game in his first home appearance at Yankee Stadium, striking out five times. He quickly made up for it with a home run off Blake Snell the next day.
Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge each had two-run shots as the Yankees completed the sweep with a 7-2 win behind Luis Severino.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Five potential Rays starters are on the shelf, including Jose De Leon, Anthony Banda and top prospect Brent Honeywell undergoing Tommy John surgery. Chris Archer (abdominal strain) could miss another month and Jake Faria is on the 60-day DL.

Adeiny Hechavarria and Kevin Kiermaier should each be back later this month (but not this series) from a hamstring and thumb injury, respectively.

Their Story So Far

The Rays come into the Bronx at 32-35, good for third place in the top-heavy American League East. They’ve gone 4-6 in their last 10 games and are 17-19 away from Tropicana Field. Despite casting off most of their big names, they’ve been solid offensively, hitting .255/.324/.394 (101 wRC+) entering Thursday.

While their pitching numbers don’t look too special on the surface, they’ve received 39 2/3 fewer innings out of their starters than any other team with 301 innings in 67 games. That’s because of their “openers,” relievers who start the game and face the top portion of the lineup before handing the ball over to the normal starter.

Lineup We Might See

The Rays have added a couple prospects (Jake Bauers and Willy Adames) to their lineup since the Bombers last saw them while shedding Denard Span via trade.

1. 3B Matt Duffy (.324/.351/.409, 112 wRC+)
2. 1B Jake Bauers (.308/.379/.538, 155 wRC+)
3. C Wilson Ramos (.282/.324/.442, 113 wRC+)
4. DH C.J. Cron (.251/.331/.470, 123 wRC+)
5. 2B Joey Wendle (.277/.322/.375, 93 wRC+)
6. SS Willy Adames (.227/.250/.409, 75 wRC+)
7. CF Mallex Smith (.294/.356/.387, 109 wRC+)
8. RF Carlos Gomez (.180/.255/.325, 62 wRC+)
9. LF Rob Refsnyder (.177/.323/.291, 81 wRC+)

The “Starting Pitchers” We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Blake Snell
Blake Snell is quickly turning into the pitcher that many thought he could be a couple years ago. He comes into this series with a 2.30 ERA over 82 1/3 innings and 14 starts. He has struck 89 batters and walked just 25, drastically cutting his walk rate (and his hit rate to boot).

He struggled against the Bombers in April to the tune of five runs in 3 1/3 innings, but he has allowed more than two earned runs in only two of his 14 starts. With Archer out, he’s the Rays’ ace and workhorse, yet he still typically only goes six innings or so. He’s won his last four decisions.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on June 9) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR

Friday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
It’s so good to see Nathan Eovaldi back among the healthy. A torn flexor tendon and UCL ended his Yankees tenure and sent him to Tommy John surgery, keeping him out until this year. It looked like he’d be in the Rays’ No. 2 starter in their opening series, but then another elbow injury delayed his return.

And then he no-hit the Athletics for six innings in his first game back. He’s had less success in his last two starts, but he’s built up to over 100 pitches. He’s the same Eovaldi you remember: Still hits 100 mph on the gun, still can’t miss bats with enough consistency. He’s had solid control thus far, issuing just two walks in 16 innings.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on June 10) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HR

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. TBA

Sunday (2:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. TBA

OK, so it’s TBA, but it’s likely going to be a pair of relievers. Maybe Ryan Yarbrough will get a start, but he could also come in after whichever reliever manager Kevin Cash chooses to use. The way Cash typically uses the “opener” is keep the reliever-starter in for the first 5-6 batters, usually getting them into the second inning or so. Then comes the pitcher who normally starts (Yarbrough, Austin Pruitt, etc) for a couple times through the lineup.

The first time the Rays used the opener made perfect sense; They were facing a RHB-heavy Angels team and used Sergio Romo to counteract them. It was a really smart move. But it’s been overkill to use it 2-3 times every week. They’re doing it against platoon-balanced lineups and it’s really backfired a few times. Ultimately, this wouldn’t be happening if the Rays had rotation depth.

The Bullpen

No more Alex Colome after he was traded with Span to Seattle. It’s mostly been closer by committee with Sergio Romo and Chaz Roe as two of the late-inning options. Lefty Jose Alvarado gets high leverage opportunities as well while fellow southpaw Jonny Venters limits LHBs well. RHP Diego Castillo is four games into his career and has struck out eight in 5 2/3 innings.

Beyond those four, it’s a mix of long relievers and openers. Matt Andriese and Wilmer Font combined for seven innings on Wednesday (Castillo pitched the other two), so they’re unlikely to pitch early in the series. Austin Pruitt pitched 2 2/3 innings on Tuesday while Ryne Stanek opened with two shutout innings. Yarbrough and former Yankee Vidal Nuno round out the rest of the motley crew.

Yankees Connection

Cash had 10 games in pinstripes during the 2009 title run while Eovaldi and Refsnyder are recent Yankees. Roe and his wonderful slider spent three games with the Bombers in 2014 and Nuno was a Yankee for 22 games in 2013-14. On the 40-man, recently acquired Ji-Man Choi was a stopgap at first base for the Yankees last season.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

Old Timer’s Day on Sunday! I’m excited to see Andy Pettitte don pinstripes again and hopefully we’ll see him try to pick someone off. Aaron Boone is also getting in on the action among the other newcomers.
Jonathan Loaisiga’s debut against Eovaldi’s return to the Bronx. The Yankees dip into their prospect wealth against one of their former young starters. A fun matchup for the Pinstripers.
Similar to Loaisiga’s debut, let’s see how Jake Bauers and Willy Adames do in their first matchups against the Yankees. Each is among the Rays’ top prospects and Bauers has gotten off to an impressive start over the last week.

6/12 to 6/13 Series Preview: Washington Nationals

June 12, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

The young phenom … and Bryce Harper (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Back in the Bronx! The Bombers begin a nine-game homestand that features a 1.5-game stint in Washington D.C. in the middle. Before they can get to the District, the Yankees will host the Nationals for two games on River Avenue.

The Last Time They Met

The Yanks and Nats played half a game last month, but the last time they completed a series was back on June 9-10, 2015 at Yankee Stadium. Nearly three years ago to the date.

Masahiro Tanaka outdueled Max Scherzer in the opening game as the Yankees won, 6-1. Stephen Drew hit a pair of solo home runs and the Bombers extended the lead off the Washington bullpen.
Game 2 pitching matchup was Gio Gonzalez and Nathan Eovaldi. Pretty funny that the two starters for the Nationals in the series were the two probable starters for the two-game set the Nationals had last month.
The Yankees gained a two-run advantage late, but a shorthanded bullpen forced Jacob Lindgren into a high leverage eighth inning and he gave up a tying homer to Michael A. Taylor. The Nats would win in extras of Chris Capuano.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

A lot of big names on the disabled list. 2B Daniel Murphy could make his season debut this series while RHPs Stephen Strasburg, Jeremy Hellickson and Brandon Kintzler were recently placed on the 10-day DL. Ryan Zimmerman could be back soon from back soreness but likely needs a rehab stint first.

Relievers Joaquin Benoit and Koda Glover, as well as catchers Matt Wieters and Jhonatan Solano, will miss this series and Yankee killer Howie Kendrick is done for the season with a ruptured right Achilles.

Their Story So Far

The Nationals are tied for the National League East division lead at 36-27 despite getting off to a slow start to the season. They’ve been especially strong away from Nationals Park, going 21-11 on the road. However, they’ve cooled off a bit recently after losing five of their last nine.

Contrary to the last few seasons, this isn’t a top-notch offensive team, batting .236/.315/.400 (92 wRC+) as a team. Their starting rotation has remained stout and they have an improved bullpen headlined by Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. In their lineup, Zimmerman and Murphy have missed significant time while Bryce Harper is in a bit of a slump.

Lineup We Might See

A lot of lefties on Dave Martinez’s squad, so there will a different mix that faces CC Sabathia compared with the one that faces Sonny Gray. Here’s a lineup with all their best healthy hitters even though Taylor or Wilmer Difo may get a start.

1. RF Adam Eaton (.333/.421/.606, 179 wRC+)
2. SS Trea Turner (.254/.339/.387, 99 wRC+)
3. CF/RF Bryce Harper (.228/.360/.509, 127 wRC+)
4. 3B Anthony Rendon (.262/.342/.452, 112 wRC+)
5. 1B Matt Adams (.265/.345/.578, wRC+)
6. 2B Daniel Murphy (.322/.384/.543, 136 wRC+ in 2017)
7. DH Mark Reynolds (.290/.343/.597, 152 wRC+)
8. LF Juan Soto (.328/.431/.541, 163 wRC+)
9. C Pedro Severino (.197/.303/.254, 50 wRC+)

Fun Fact: A.J. Cole, with a home run in three ABs, leads the Nationals with a 344 wRC+.

He’s not Scherzer, but Roark isn’t an easy customer. (Daniel Shirey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Tanner Roark
Tanner Roark is really good in even-numbered seasons and slightly below average in odd years. This season has been a slight departure as he’s been good (3.56 ERA/113 ERA+ in 78 1/3 innings) but not outstanding as he was in 2016 (2.83 ERA/151 ERA+ in 210 innings).

Part of why he fluctuates season to season is that he allows a lot of balls in play. In his career, only about 25 percent of his PAs end in strikeouts or walks.

The 31-year-old has lost one mph off his fastball/sinker but still has gotten solid results overall, though his groundball rate has declined a bit. He lives in the low 90s with a lot of sinkers and mixes in mid-80s sliders and changeups as well as a mid-70s curveball, with equal rates among the off-speed offerings.

Last Outing (vs. TB on June 6) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Wednesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Sonny Gray vs. TBA
This is Strasburg’s spot in the rotation, but he left his last start early and is on the DL. The likely replacement is Erick Fedde, who has produced middling results in Triple-A. Formerly a top prospect, he’s lost a bit of his luster after three poor starts in 2017 and average results in Triple-A. He had a solid spot start last month. As for his repertoire, he lives in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball, using a slider as his go-to offspeed offering and a changeup that is hit or miss.

The other starters on the Nationals’ 40-man roster that could make the starter are Austin Voth and Jefry Rodriguez, each of whom has been called up at least once this year. Edwin Jackson opted out just before the Nationals’ rash of injuries and former starter A.J. Cole is in the Yankees bullpen. Not a lot of options.

The Bullpen

Acquiring Doolittle and Mason from Oakland last season has helped the Nationals turn their bullpen into a strength, even as Blake Treinen has excelled with the Athletics. Justin Miller has gotten off to a solid start in middle relief and southpaw Sammy Solis continues to get reps there as well.

Shawn Kelley hasn’t been nearly as bad as last season’s 7.27 ERA, but he hasn’t been great. Lefties Tim Collins and Matt Grace have been fine in small samples while righties Trevor Gott and Wander Suero are typically low leverage guys.

With a Monday day off and Scherzer’s start Sunday, the Nationals’ pen should be pretty well rested.

Yankees Connection

You may remember Kelley from his 105 innings in middle relief for the Bombers from 2013-14 before he was traded for Johnny Barbato. Reynolds spent 36 games with the Yankees in late 2013 at first and third base while former Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long is now the Nats’ hitting coach.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

Phew! No Scherzer! The Yankees dodge a bullet there, yet there’s still a ton of star power. I’m always down to watch Harper and Rendon/Turner/Eaton are pretty exciting as well.
However, the most exciting thing might be 19-year-old wunderkind Juan Soto. The youngest player in the majors has done nothing but hit at every level with his 72 PAs with the big league club no exception. Perhaps most impressive is his 11 walks vs. 11 strikeouts.

6/8 to 6/10 Series Preview: New York Mets

June 8, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

After a much-needed day off, the Yankees return to New York to … continue their road trip with a brief excursion to Queens.

The Last Time They Met

The Pinstripers swept four games from the Mets last August with two games in the Bronx followed by two games in Queens, none of which were decided by more than two runs.

Aaron Judge hit a home run that went to the moon off Robert Gsellman. My eyes say it landed in the upper deck at Citi Field, but logic tells me the ball has just reached Jupiter’s moons.

Sonny Gray picked up his first win as a Yankee, beating Jacob deGrom in the Bronx. Aroldis Chapman struggled in that game as he gave up a dinger to rookie Amed Rosario, but the Yankees held on.
Gary Sanchez had three homers in the series, including a three-run shot to give Luis Severino an early lead in the series finale. Judge had a couple of long balls as well while Didi Gregorius had the game-winning double in the third game of the series.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Hard-throwing ace Noah Syndergaard is expected to return in time for Sunday’s series finale after straining a ligament in his his throwing hand. Slugging OF Yoenis Cespedes could return in this series but is more likely to go on rehab assignment against Double-A Trenton this weekend. Catcher Devin Mesoraco is day-to-day and should start at some point in this series.

Outside of them, Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, David Wright and A.J. Ramos are out for this series. Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares are done until 2019.

Their Story So Far

At 27-32, the Mets have the fourth worst record in the National League and are sitting in fourth place in their division despite an 11-1 start. The team has lost six straight games in which they’ve scored just seven total runs and looked inept on offense. Over the last two weeks, the team is hitting just .217/.300/.354 (80 wRC+) collectively and it’s often looked much worse. Both Alex Cobb and Jon Lester carried no-hitters into the middle innings against them over the last week.

The next few weeks will be critical for this squad, particularly once Cespedes returns. They’ll need to make up ground in the playoff race soon or else they’ll be faced with an imperative to sell off some big pieces. While they likely wouldn’t trade their top players to the Yankees for PR purposes, Syndergaard and deGrom would fit quite well in the Bronx and the Bombers could probably give the Mets an attractive package of prospects.

Lineup We Might See

1. LF Brandon Nimmo (.267/.407/.533)
2. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera (.286/.328/.498)
3. CF Michael Conforto (.228/.351/.380)
4. 3B Todd Frazier (.230/.345/.393)
5. RF Jay Bruce (.224/.297/.339)
6. C Kevin Plawecki (.205/.375/.273)
7. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.244/.309/.381)
8. Pitcher’s spot
9. SS Amed Rosario (.251/.284/.366)

Mickey Callaway likes to have Amed Rosario ninth and put the pitcher’s spot in the eight hole. The Mets have three catchers on their roster and Jose Reyes, so their bench isn’t optimized all that well.

I miss deGrom with the long hair. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:10 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
deGrom has arguably been the best pitcher in the National League this season. Sporting an NL-best 1.49 ERA, he’s been dominant yet is only 4-0 in 12 starts with the Mets going 5-7 in his appearances thanks to some awful run support. He’s given up one run or fewer in his last three starts while throwing seven innings in each, yet the Mets lost each game.

The 29-year-old righty lives in the mid-to-high-90s with his fastball while going often to his high-80s, low-90s slider that is an adventure to try and hit. He also has a high-80s changeup and an 82-mph curveball. He regular throws over 100 pitches and is pretty efficient doing so. He’s fifth in baseball with a 26.6 K-BB rate.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on June 2) – 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 13 K

Saturday (7:15 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Steven Matz
After an injury-plagued 2017 season, Steven Matz has returned to form this season and looks much like the dependable starter he was in 2015-16. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is coming off his longest start (seven innings) since July 2017.

He has a 3.42 ERA, though his 5.11 FIP looks like a harbinger of things to come. He walks nearly four per nine and despite sporting a groundball rate above 50 percent, he allows 1.54 homers per nine.

Matz attacks with his 93-mph sinking fastball and goes off speed with both a high-70s curveball and low 80s changeup. He doesn’t tend to go very deep into starts and the Yankees’ offense can certainly knock him out early with their normal patient approach.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on June 3) – 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Sunday (8:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Noah Syndergaard is coming off the disabled list just in time to face the Bombers. Therefore, Sunday Night Baseball will be a matchup of the two pitchers with the highest average fastball velocity in baseball. Syndergaard averages 97.4 mph on his fastball and often reaches 100+ on the radar. He’s a beast and he has the strikeout numbers to prove it.

Similar to Severino, Syndergaard walks very few batters for a fireballer of his ilk, striking out 28.3 percent of batters and walking just 4.8 percent. Add that to his relatively low home run rate and he’s a sabermetrician’s dream.

The 25-year-old ace goes more to his wiffleball-esque sinker than his four-seamer and goes to his hard slider and changeup often. He’ll also mid in an 83-mph curveball for good measure. He has only gone past the sixth inning twice this season and will be coming off the DL, so his workload will be something to watch on Sunday.

Last Outing (@ MIL on May 25) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR

Update (4:21pm ET): The Mets just announced Syndergaard will not come off the disabled list to start Sunday. It’ll be Seth Lugo instead.

The Bullpen

After looking like a strength to begin the season, the Mets’ bullpen has been disastrous recently. Just ask deGrom! They were 29th in bullpen WAR in May and have needed one of their more effective relievers, Seth Lugo, in a spot start, making matters worse. With Thursday’s day off and seven strong innings from Zack Wheeler on Wednesday, the Mets are well rested in the bullpen.

Jeurys Familia is the closer, though Callaway will occasionally use him in the eighth if that’s when an opponent’s heart of the order comes up. (Fun fact: He’s the last closer to reach 50 saves.) Gsellman and Lugo are used as multi-inning high-leverage relievers while former Yankee Anthony Swarzak will also take some late innings now that he’s off the DL.

Paul Sewald is both a long man and occasional high-leverage guy while Jerry Blevins is a solid LOOGY who hasn’t been effective this year. Hansel Robles and Tim Peterson are back-of-the-roster guys and shouldn’t see high-leverage spots this series.

Yankees Connection

The Toddfather! Todd Frazier is inked into a deal with the Mets for the next 1.5 years after his three months in pinstripes. Swarzak spent four ill-fated months with the Bombers and A.J. Ramos is Giancarlo Stanton’s roommate in NYC. Who gets the house this weekend?

Who (Or What) to Watch?

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Mets have their best starters going this weekend. This is the Mets’ best shot at the Bombers and how the Yankees handle it could be a decisive blow to their crosstown foes or a chance for the Mets to stay afloat.
Along those lines, how can you not get excited for Severino vs. Syndergaard? They’ll be trading 100-mph fastballs like it’s nothing.

5/28 to 5/30 Series Preview: Houston Astros

May 28, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Bregman and Altuve (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

After series against the Rangers and Angels, let’s see how the Yankees do in a three-game home set with the class of the American League West.

The Last Time They Met

It’s been less than a month since the Yankees took three of four in Houston in the middle of their 17-1 stretch.

Charlie Morton handed them that one loss with a gem of a start in Game 1 and was followed by eight shutout innings from Justin Verlander in Game 2.
Verlander’s 14-strikeout masterpiece was upended by Ken Giles’ woeful ninth-inning, culminating in a Gary Sanchez homer and a self-punch to the face for Giles.
Giancarlo Stanton homered twice and Luis Severino shutout Houston in Game 3 before the Yankees survived a near bullpen collapse with a 6-5 comeback to take the series finale.
Jordan Montgomery went down with an injury after one inning in the second game, leading the Yankees to get eight innings of shutout relief from Domingo German and others.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

The Astros are mostly healthy. Josh Reddick has a left leg skin infection and will miss this series while fellow outfielder Derek Fisher (gastrointestinal discomfort) could return on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Their Story So Far

The defending champions are 34-20 and they just might be better than that record. Their Pythagorean record has them at 41-13 because their pitching staff has held opponents to just 147 runs. No other American League team has held teams to fewer than 200 runs. Their offense hasn’t been quite as supercharged as the Yankees, but they still have the same group that produced last year’s title run.

Jose Altuve again leads the AL in hits and the rest of the top four hitters in the lineup continue humming along. Verlander, Morton and Gerrit Cole are 1-2-3 in ERA among AL starters (Severino is fourth), leaving Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. as overqualified four and five starters. Their only weaknesses are their bullpen and maybe the back-end of their lineup.

Lineup We Might See

1. RF George Springer (.294/.357.509, 139 wRC+)
2. 3B Alex Bregman (.266/.384/.432, 132 wRC+)
3. 2B Jose Altuve (.330/.377/.457, 133 wRC+)
4. SS Carlos Correa (.272/.357/.471, 127 wRC+)
5. LF Marwin Gonzalez (.214/.291/.315, 71 wRC+)
6. 1B Yuri Gurriel (.278/.304/.373, 86 wRC+)
7. C Brian McCann (.227/.323/.364, 95 wRC+)
8. DH Evan Gattis (.230/.295/.422, 98 wRC+)
9. CF Tony Kemp (.333/.400/.500, 149 wRC+)

Don’t be surprised to see a lot of shuffling between McCann, Gattis and fellow catcher Max Stassi (149 wRC+), who has been the best hitter of the trio this season. Jake Marisnick (27 wRC+) may get a start over Kemp vs. CC Sabathia for platoon reasons despite a horrid start to the season.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (1:05 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Verlander has had the best stretch of his career to start the 2018 season and is currently the Cy Young favorite, far and away. That’s what happens when you put up a 1.08 ERA over 74 2/3 innings. He’s averaging just short of seven innings a start and has a .710 WHIP to go with a career-best 28.1 K-BB%.

If anything could fell him, it’s his career-low groundball rate. The Yankees are going to swing and miss a lot against him, so perhaps they poke a few out in the #littleasspark. They’ve had no luck in their three games vs. Verlander at Minute Made Park and haven’t faced him at Yankee Stadium since 2016 when their lone run came on a Rob Refsnyder RBI single. The current roster bats .190/.265/.321 against him with 50 strikeouts in 153 plate appearances.

Last Outing (vs. SFG on May 23) – 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Morton has been similarly dominant to Verlander this season with a 2.04 ERA in 61 2/3 innings. That included 7 2/3 innings of two-hit, 10-strikeout ball on Apr. 30 against the Yankees, the lone loss for the Bombers in their 17-1 stretch.

At 34 years old, Morton is somehow throwing harder than ever, averaging 96 mph on his fastball after throwing in the low 90s up until his brief stint with the Phillies two years ago. He favors assorted variations of his fastball while working off of it with an 80-mph curveball. He’s been a magician in Houston.

Last Outing (@ CLE on May 24) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Wednesday (6:35 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel
It’s funny to say, but of any of the pitchers in this series, Keuchel is the one that has earned a reputation for a Yankee killer. He has a 1.74 ERA in his career against the Yankees and the current team bats just .202/.240/.319 against him. However, he’s lost his last two starts against the Yankees beginning with ALCS Game 5 last year. Maybe his Yankee stopping mojo is gone?

Keuchel hasn’t been quite as good this season despite a strong 3.39 ERA in 69 innings. His groundball rate has fallen a bit and with that has come a few more home runs, including two by Stanton on May 2. He’s still a solid pitcher for Yankee Stadium with his worm killing stuff able to keep the ball out of seats. He’s allowed a reverse platoon split this season in a small sample that goes against his prior career numbers.

Last Outing (@ CLE on May 25) – 6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Their bullpen has been a bit of a mess again this season, as the Yankees saw first hand a month ago. Ken Giles’ and Will Harris’ ERAs are up to 5.06 and 4.08, respectively, after contributing to Sunday’s meltdown in Cleveland, where the Astros blew a five-run lead in the ninth inning. Chris Devenski is same solid self and Brad Peacock has been solid despite allowing a walk-off homer yesterday.

Beyond them, offseason addition Joe Smith has an unseemly 6.06 ERA in 19 appearances while Hector Rondon has been good in 21 games despite his blown save on Sunday. Collin McHugh has been a dominant long man after getting squeezed out of the rotation (though again, he gave up a run yesterday). McHugh is the type of guy you’ll forget about and then he’ll win the Astros a playoff game out of nowhere. Be on the lookout.

The bullpen will be a bit shorthanded after everyone but Tony Sipp, the lone lefty, pitched on Sunday, including two innings each from Smith and McHugh. Definitely possible the team makes a quick roster move to add some short term help, though they could just rely on Verlander to go deep.

Yankees Connection

McCullers’ father pitched for the Yankees from 1989-90 while Cole, as you likely know, was a first-round draft pick of the Yankees who didn’t sign despite growing up a Yankees fan. It was the right call considering he was picked first overall three years later.

And, of course, McCann was in pinstripes for three solid seasons behind the plate. He hit a little too well in Games 6 and 7 of the 2017 ALCS for my liking, but I still have a soft spot for him.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

I think I’ve written this a half-dozen times now, but this is a measuring stick series. The Astros may have four more losses than the Yankees, but they’re just as formidable.
The top four in the Astros’ lineup will make things happen on their own, so one key for this series will be how the Yankees handle their bottom five, particularly guys like Kemp in the nine-hole. If the Yanks keep them off the bases, that makes dealing with Springer through Correa much simpler.