Archive for Analysis
Pettittef/x
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Welcome back, old friend. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty)
At this point the wonderful news of Andy Pettitte‘s return to the fold has already been covered to death, and so there’s no need to rehash all of the details here. As a Yankee fan I’m thrilled, and as a statistical analyst I’m equally thrilled (I did something of an ode to Andy a little over a year ago, so be sure to have a look at that). Andy has been a pillar of consistency throughout his career. To wit:
1995-2003: 3.94 ERA (86 ERA-)/3.73 FIP (83 FIP-)/3.41 xFIP (77 xFIP-), 6.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 49.3% GB%
2004-2006: 3.38 ERA (77 ERA-)/3.58 FIP (81 FIP-)/3.41 xFIP (77 xFIP-), 7.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 50.4% GB%
2007-2010: 4.08 ERA (92 ERA-)/3.89 FIP (88 FIP-)/4.05 xFIP (93 xFIP-), 6.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 46.9% GB%
However, today I’m primarily concerned with reviewing Pettitte’s stuff, and thankfully with Brooks’ excessively robust and reclassified new PITCHf/x database, we can have a more advanced look at what Pettitte did during the last few seasons of his career than ever before. The following table I’ve compiled details takes a look at each of Pettitte’s five pitches during the last three years he was active across a variety of categories. PitchIQ is ostensibly the equivalent of OPS+/ERA+; 100 is league average, while anything above is above-average and below is below-average. This is outstanding, as it gives us an idea of how well or poorly Andy’s pitches fared in comparison to his peers.
While he’s never had blow-you-away stuff, Andy’s been an incredibly successful Major Leaguer (and perhaps borderline Hall-of-Famer) due in part to his ability to hit his spots and change his speeds with a variety of secondary pitches that play off his 90mph fastball. According to Lucas’ and Harry’s reclassified PITCHf/x data, during his last three seasons in pinstripes Pettitte threw a fastball, sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup. Interestingly, ESPN’s Stats & Info blog put up a post last week detailing how one of the keys to Pettitte’s success in 2010 was his slider; however, according to this data Pettitte throws no such thing. I don’t know what data ESPN is being supplied with, but I’m inclined to go with the guys who manually reclassified more than 3 million pitches.
Per our data, Andy’s bread-and-butter — at least on a whiff/swing basis — has been his cutter, with a whiff/swing% an impressive 37% better than league average in 2010. None of his other pitches generated an above-average percentage of whiffs/swing. Part of the reason Andy’s able to get away with not having overpowering stuff is that his sinker and changeup each got him ground balls more than 50% of the time in 2010.
The one aspect of the PitchIQ Scores I’m still trying to get a firm read on is how to interpret them when it comes to LD/BIP and FB/BIP. I have an e-mail into Dan Brooks about this, and I’m pretty sure that we need to be looking at the PitchIQ Scores for these two categories as if they were “minus stats,” (i.e., below 100 is above-average and vice versa), given that general baseball convention holds that lower flyball and line drive percentages are thought of as a good thing. If my interpretation is indeed correct, both Pettitte’s curve and cutter have helped him limit the percentage of line drives, although the cutter is his only pitch that yields a FB% higher than 30%.
I also compiled Pettitte’s platoon splits from 2007-2010, although I won’t make your eyes glaze over by also posting a JPEG of that chart; feel free to download it here if you’d like. The gist of it is, Pettitte, as one would expect, handles righties and lefties with equal aplomb, although he’s really really good against same-side batters, with a PitchIQ whiff/swing of 148 on his cutter against lefties. For comparison’s sake, Jon Lester’s cutter against lefties during the same time period was 16% above average; while Cliff Lee’s is, rather surprisingly, 4% below league average. That doesn’t seem like it could be right, although then again for as good as Lee is I guess he’s always been a bit more about generating weak contact than outright overpowering hitters with strikeouts (though it’s not as if a 7.6 K/9 since 2007 is anything to sneeze at).
Conclusion and projections
So how well will Andy fare? Clearly if he can come close to throwing the way he’d been throwing during 2010, the Yankees will be adding a bona fide #2/#3 lefty starter at some point in May, which is just awesome to think about. Of course, only Andy knows how his soon-to-be 40-year-old body will react to returning to the grind of retiring Major League hitters and whether he still has the craftiness he’ll need to succeed.
Mike covered Pettitte’s ZiPS projection earlier this week, which sees a 4.45 ERA and 1.5 WAR for Pettitte in 125.1 IP. Marcel has Pettitte at 73 innings of non-adjusted 4.07 ERA/4.06 FIP ball; while SG’s baseline forecast (which is park- and league-adjusted) calls for 127 innings of 4.01 ERA/4.00 FIP ball. The 65% CAIRO forecast is even sunnier, with 140 innings of 3.69 ERA/3.64 FIP ball. All things considered, those are some pretty robust projections for an older player who skipped an entire season of work, and if he’s able to approximate some sort of amalgam of those numbers the Yankees will be in very good shape.
The 2012 New York Yankees All-Projection Team
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Much of the 2012 Yankee offense's fortunes are riding on your shoulders, pal. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty)
After an offeason’s worth of projections, it’s finally time to aggregate everything and see just how good our beloved pinstripers look on paper. Loyal readers will recall I did this last year, as well.
Below you’ll see each player’s final 2011 line, along with their average 2012 projected line. In this instance, the average has been compiled from the eight major projection systems — Bill James, CAIRO, Oliver, Rotochamp, PECOTA, ZiPS, Steamer and Tango’s Marcel. Despite the variations in calculation method with each system along with the fact that they’re not all park- and league-adjusted, I’ve found that a straight average of the systems’ projections generally winds up being a fairly reasonable benchmark.
Additionally, I’ll repeat the immortal words of SG one last time: “Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level, and are not predictions.”
Offense
The Yankees will, for the umpteenth year in a row, feature a robust offensive attack in 2012, with no starter projected to have a below-league average (.316 in 2011, for your reference) wOBA. Derek Jeter looks to be the weakest component of the offensive attack, though he’ll outhit that .324 average projected wOBA if he comes anywhere close to replicating his second-half surge last summer. Derek’s high-water projection is James’ .333 wOBA, while ZiPS thinks Derek is essentially cooked, with a .309 projection.
After a bit of a disappointing campaign with the stick in 2011, Brett Gardner should get on base more frequently assuming he gets his IFFB% closer to his career figure of a still-worse-than-league-average 14%, rather than last year’s 19.6% (which nearly lead the league). Rotochamp loves itself some Gardner, with a .343 projection, while Oliver is unimpressed and thinks Gardner will continue to hit the skids with a .320 wOBA.
Russell Martin projects for more OBP and less power than he showed in 2011, though I think we’ll see a stronger campaign from Russell in 2012, due in part to a presumed increased comfort level along with a desire for a substantial free-agent pact. James likes Martin for a high-water .355 wOBA — a level he’s only exceeded once — while Marcel has Martin falling to .311.
Both Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano are projected for significantly less-potent seasons, though in my opinion those are pretty conservative estimates and I feel comfortable expecting at least a .375 wOBA out of the Yankees’ two most potent offensive forces. Rotochamp likes Granderson at .379, while Marcel and Oliver are each at a much more bearish .351; Rotochamp also has the high-water projection got Cano at .369, while Steamer is at .355.
The Yankees’ two former heavyweights, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, are also expected to help continue to carry the offense. At .370, Tex actually has the most significantly improved average projected wOBA on the team, representing a .009 increase from his actual 2011 production. James likes Tex for a .382 wOBA; while Marcel has him at a non-park-adjusted .357 for the low-water mark. A-Rod‘s average .361 projected wOBA is exactly what he put up in 2011, although component-wise the systems see slightly more power for Alex and slightly less OBP. While at this point I don’t know that it’s reasonable to be disappointed with Alex posting another .361 wOBA year in his age 36 season, if he can stay healthy it also doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect a wOBA somewhere in the .370s or higher. Strangely enough, PECOTA — which doesn’t really like anyone, and generally saves most of its venom for aging veterans — actually boasts the most optimistic A-Rod forecast, pegging him for a .509 SLG and making him one of only 15 players in all of MLB the system even projects to SLG above .500 (Tex is in there, too). On the flip side, the ever-negative Oliver sees Alex regressing to a non-park-adjusted .350 wOBA.
If we plug each player’s projected OBP and SLG into Dave Pinto’s Lineup Analysis tool, we get a lineup projected to average roughly 5.3 runs per game against lefties (with Andruw Jones at DH), and the same against righties (with Ibanez at DH). The Yankees’ runs-per-game averages for the last five seasons starting with 2011 are 5.4, 5.3, 5.7, 4.9 and 6.0, so 5.3 for the starting lineup should be just fine.
Starting Pitching
Though Sweaty Freddy is expected to begin the year in the bullpen I’ve thrown him in for comparison’s sake. Unsurprisingly Freddy also projects as the least-effective of the six starting candidates. Despite a horrid season, most projection systems still love Phil Hughes, with Bill James going so far as to project a 3.71 ERA/3.82 FIP (albeit in 102 innings), while the ever-pessimistic PECOTA also appears to still be a Hughes fanboy, projecting a 3.84 ERA over 135 innings.
None of the systems think Ivan Nova can reproduce his 2011, although Marcel’s non-park-adjusted 3.88 ERA/3.89 FIP is the most optimistic. On the flip side, PECOTA thinks Nova’s a joke, with 156 innings of 5.03 ERA ball.
Both Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda‘s average projections seem eminently reasonable to me in the AL East; truly, if the Yanks can record a second straight season of three starters giving 100-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERAs (thanks to CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia) — something that hasn’t happened for the Yankees in back-to-back seasons since 2001-2002 — needless to say they will be in excellent shape.
For those interested in simulations, the most recent iteration of CAIRO (run over a month ago) had the 2012 Yankees as the best team in baseball, at 97-65 (five games ahead of Tampa Bay); Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA also has the Yankees with the best record in baseball, at 95-67 (five games ahead of Boston); and even THT’s get-off-my-lawn Oliver forecasting system has the Yankees with the best record in baseball, at 95-67 (three games ahead of Boston).
While, as per usual, many things will need to go the Yankees’ way for the team to reach these projections, it’s tough to quibble with a roster universally projected to be the best in baseball heading into the season.
Yankee designated hitter production of recent vintage, and a look at 2012
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the bitterest pills to swallow in the aftermath of the Michael Pineda-Jesus Montero trade was the fact that the Yankees were removing what many expected to be a substantial cog in the offensive machine, not only in 2012 but for years to come. Prior to being traded, Montero’s average projected wOBA for 2012 was .360 (his revised projections as a Mariner average out to a .347 wOBA, or .272/.334/.461), which was the fifth-best projected wOBA of the projected starting Yankee nine.
Interestingly, for all of Brian Cashman‘s skill at building an incredibly talented roster on the offensive side of the equation, getting robust production out of the DH slot in the lineup has never really seemed to be a primary interest. To wit (as always, click to embiggen):
Of the 14 Yankee teams Cash has presided over, they have received below-league average production (sOPS+) out of the DH slot five times. That may not seem like a lot, but it is a tad eyebrow-raising given how robust the Yankee offense has been with Cash at the helm. Only four times has the team received DH production 10% better than league average in the last 14 seasons, which seems like a fairly large waste of resources when considering we’re talking about a lineup slot solely extant to produce offense.
Cashman’s high-water mark DH season was 2009, the year in which Hideki Matsui had primary designated hitter duties and responded with a DH campaign 19% better than the league. The Yankees also got a surprising amount of production out of the 2008 DH, which was mostly filled by Jason Giambi, along with Matsui and Johnny Damon. The only other really standout year for DH production above was 1998, which saw Darryl Strawberry, Rock Raines and Chili Davis collaborate on a .276/.378/.493 line.
That .360 projected wOBA for a Montero as a Yankee worked out to roughly a .270/.360/.470 triple slash, mighty fine production out of a 21-year-old, not to mention a line that would’ve been among the better performances the Yankees received from the DH during the last 14 seasons. However, for all the hullabaloo about the Yankees wanting to fill Montero’s vacated production, it appears they’ll have a pretty good shot at doing just that with the platoon of Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez.
In 2011, Andruw Jones put up the following slash against LHP in 146 PAs: .286/.384/.540, .400 wOBA.
In 2011, Raul Ibanez put up the following slash against RHP in 437 PAs: .256/.307/.440, .322 wOBA.
If you average those lines (and obviously this is exceptionally rough math, as the PAs are not even close to comparable), you get a .271/.346/.490, .361 wOBA hitter. Docking for the fact that PAs against RHP are roughly double those against LHP and you’re probably close to a .340 wOBA hitter, which is right around the average of SG’s 2012 CAIRO-projected platoon splits for Jones (.337 vs. LHP) and Ibanez (.349 vs. RHP).
While Jones probably won’t produce a .400 wOBA against LHP again, on the flip side Ibanez seems like a fairly reasonable bet to outdo a .322 wOBA against RHP with 81 games at Yankee Stadium, and taken together I don’t think it’s terribly unrealistic to expect the duo to combine for somewhere in the neighborhood of a .350 wOBA. While that may not quite be Jesus Montero territory, it should be enough for the Yankee offense to not miss much of a beat, especially when considering the ~.309 wOBA received from Jorge Posada in the majority of DH plate appearances in 2011.
No-hitters in Yankee history
Posted by: | CommentsInspired by the advance copy I received of former Yankee PR director Marty Appel’s outstanding “Pinstripe Empire” — which, as far as I can tell, is the definitive and authoritative history of The New York Yankees franchise, and an absolute must-read for die-hards and casual fans alike — I was inspired to do some no-hitter research.
By my count, there have been 117 no-hitters in the AL (including postseason play), per MLB.com, and 133 in the senior circuit, though of course the NL also has more than a quarter-century of additional history over the junior circuit. Of those 117 AL no-nos, only 12 have been perfect games, and three of those 12 have been authored by Yankees. The National League, believe it or not, has only recorded eight perfect games in its 125-plus year history.
I was also curious to see how many seasons it had been since each team in baseball had been no-hit:
In pulling together this research I was actually pretty surprised at how many teams in baseball haven’t been no-hit in more than a decade. The Cubs are the current MLB leader, going on 46 seasons of not being no-hit. Oddly, the Pirates are right behind them, having not been no-hit in 40 seasons. The AL team with the longest no no-hit streak is Oakland, at 20 years. The Red Sox are right behind them, with their last no-hitter-against coming all the way back on April 22, 1993, against Chris Bosio. Even the Mets, for all of their laughable hijinks, have been able to avoid being no-hit since 1993. Of course, on the flip side, the Mets remain one of two MLB franchises (the other being the Padres) to never have had a pitcher author a no-no. For a list of all-time franchise no-hitters for and against, make sure to check out nonohitters.com.
Yankees
The Yankees have thrown 11 no-hitters (including the three perfect games) in franchise history, with 10 coming during the regular season. The franchise’s first-ever no-no was thrown by George Mogridge on April 24, 1917, against the Red Sox (being 1917 this game is not captured by B-Ref’s Play Index). Here are the remaining 9 regular season no-hitters in Yankee history:
| Rk | Player | Date ? | Opp | Rslt | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | GSc | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Cone | 1999-07-18 | MON | W 6-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 88 | 97 | 0.259 |
| 2 | David Wells | 1998-05-17 | MIN | W 4-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 120 | 98 | 0.477 |
| 3 | Dwight Gooden | 1996-05-14 | SEA | W 2-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 134 | 86 | 0.644 |
| 4 | Jim Abbott | 1993-09-04 | CLE | W 4-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 119 | 85 | 0.351 |
| 5 | Dave Righetti | 1983-07-04 | BOS | W 4-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 92 | 0.509 | |
| 6 | Allie Reynolds | 1951-09-28 (1) | BOS | W 8-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 92 | 0.235 | |
| 7 | Allie Reynolds | 1951-07-12 | CLE | W 1-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 88 | 0.796 | |
| 8 | Monte Pearson | 1938-08-27 (2) | CLE | W 13-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 92 | ||
| 9 | Sad Sam Jones | 1923-09-04 | PHA | W 2-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 86 |
Interestingly, nearly half of the team’s no-hitters came during the 1990s. Since their last no-hitter on July 18, 1999, there have been 25 no-hitters thrown in MLB, four by the Red Sox and three by the Phillies. The Yankees have also been on the receiving end of a no-no during that time, the unforgettable six-pitcher debacle on June 11, 2003, which I had the bad fortune of attending. However, to even it out, I was also in attendance for Doc’s no-no in 1996.
Rather impressively, despite more than 100 years of history, the Yankees have apparently only suffered a complete-game no-hit shutout a mere five times since 1919 (and one was a rain-shortened six-inning affair). The last time the Yankees were no-hit for nine innings prior to the 2003 Astro debacle was on September 20, 1958, against Hoyt Wilhelm. The last time the Yankees were no-hit for nine innings at home pre-Astros was August 25, 1952.
All of this no-hit talk got me thinking that the Yankees seem somewhat due to no-hit another club, although clearly they’ve gone through much longer droughts than 11 seasons. As a Yankee, CC Sabathia has 15 starts of 7 or more innings and 3 or fewer hits:
| Rk | Date | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H ? | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | GSc | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2010-04-10 | TBR | W 10-0 | GS-8 ,W | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 111 | 80 | 0.314 |
| 2 | 2010-09-02 | OAK | W 5-0 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 95 | 82 | 0.470 |
| 3 | 2009-09-26 | BOS | W 3-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 96 | 81 | 0.475 |
| 4 | 2011-07-26 | SEA | W 4-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 102 | 82 | 0.167 |
| 5 | 2011-04-05 | MIN | L 4-5 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 104 | 78 | 0.278 |
| 6 | 2009-08-08 | BOS | W 5-0 | GS-8 ,W | 7.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 123 | 82 | 0.503 |
| 7 | 2010-09-13 | TBR | L 0-1 | GS-8 | 8.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 119 | 85 | 0.537 |
| 8 | 2009-07-07 | MIN | W 10-2 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 100 | 69 | 0.167 |
| 9 | 2009-05-19 | BAL | W 9-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 105 | 73 | 0.393 |
| 10 | 2010-06-03 | BAL | W 6-3 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 94 | 65 | 0.135 |
| 11 | 2009-06-26 | NYM | W 9-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 99 | 75 | 0.249 |
| 12 | 2010-09-28 | TOR | W 6-1 | GS-9 ,W | 8.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 111 | 79 | 0.358 |
| 13 | 2011-07-16 | TOR | W 4-1 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 110 | 77 | 0.339 |
| 14 | 2009-08-13 | SEA | W 11-1 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 105 | 80 | 0.178 |
| 15 | 2009-09-07 (1) | TBR | W 4-1 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 118 | 73 | 0.371 |
Sabathia may have come closest to his first career no-hitter this past summer, when he was absolutely cruising against the punchless Mariners before multiple rain delays ruined what could have been the latest chapter in team history (not to mention seemed to derail what had been an utterly glorious run of pitching).
Still, this year’s team may be as poised as ever to take a run at a no-hitter, given the strikeout-heavy tandem of CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda.
Breaking down the payroll, part four
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"Can you believe those M-Fers called us cheap?" (REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
Now that just about all of the Yankees’ offseason business has been addressed, we can take one final look at the team’s (approximate) payroll for the upcoming season. A lot has happened since we last checked in, most notably the Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez signings. Brett Gardner, Russell Martin, and Boone Logan have since avoided arbitration as well, and yesterday the Yankees added David Aardsma for good measure. Here’s a look at the team’s commitments for the 2012 season…
- Guaranteed Contracts (21 players, $188.4M): Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M), CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Derek Jeter ($17M), Mariano Rivera ($15M), Robinson Cano ($14M), Rafael Soriano ($11M), Nick Swisher ($10.25M), Curtis Granderson ($10M), Hiroki Kuroda ($10M), Martin ($7.5M), Freddy Garcia ($4M), Phil Hughes ($3.2M), Gardner ($2.8M), Andruw Jones ($2M), Logan ($1.875M), Joba Chamberlain ($1.675M), David Robertson ($1.6M), Ibanez ($1.1M), Cory Wade ($500k), David Aardsma ($500k)
- Contracts Pending Physicals (one player, $900k): Chavez ($900k)
- Dead Money (three players, $15.75M): A.J. Burnett ($11.5M), Pedro Feliciano ($4M), Damaso Marte ($0.250M)
The money listed is in terms of average annual value, which is what is used to calculate the luxury tax. The players’ actual salaries are slightly different in some cases, but nothing crazy.
All told, that gives us $205.05M for 25 players, three of whom will contribute nothing to the team this season. Joba and Aardsma are going to be out until midseason, so that $205.05M is filling 20 roster spots on Opening Day. The other five spots will go to guys making the league minimum — Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Eduardo Nunez, Frankie Cervelli, and a mystery reliever — so that adds another $2.5M to our grand total ($500k each). The projected Opening Day 25-man roster will cost roughly $207.55M.
The remaining 15 players on the 40-man roster will cost less than the league minimum since they’ll earn a different salary in the minors, but let’s conservatively estimate their salaries at $500k each and $7.5M for the group. The brings the approximate cost of the entire 40-man roster to $215.05M. In reality, those last 15 players will end up making something like $4-5M combined, if that. Add in player benefits — which are typically estimated at $10M and count against the luxury tax — brings us to a $225.05M payroll for luxury tax purposes. Last year the team was taxed on a $212.7M payroll, so at least we’re in the ballpark. This year’s luxury tax penalty would be $18.82M or so.
Had the Yankees kept Burnett and instead used him as that last mystery reliever, the luxury tax payroll would have been $229.55M assuming they would have still signed Ibanez, Aardsma, and Chavez. I don’t know if /how much the Yankees have in reserve for a potential trade deadline addition, and chances are they don’t either. That’s probably one of those things Brian Cashman brings to Hal Steinbrenner on a case-by-case basis. The roster is pretty much set right now though, barring injury or something completely unexpected. I don’t anticipate any significant changes to the 25-man roster or payroll through the rest of Spring Training, and this year’s Yankees figure to be the most expensive baseball team in history.
Tex should focus on pitch recognition from the left side, not bunting
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Tex swinging over what I can only imagine is a curveball. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty)
About a year ago I took a look at Mark Teixeira’s curveball problem. While anyone who watched Tex hit in 2010 didn’t need an elaborate post telling them he struggled against the curve, it bore watching as he had posted above-average run values versus the curveball in his two seasons prior. 2010 was also a down year for Tex against the fastball, as he posted a five-year low (a mere 7.3 runs above average) against a pitch he punished to the tune of 38.8 runs above average a mere two years earlier.
Tex found himself back in Yankee fans’ crosshairs again last week, after suggesting that he might try bunting from the left side of the plate this coming season in a misguided attempt to beat the shift. Brien Jackson at IIATMS noted that the shift isn’t the real problem, William Juliano published a typically comprehensive look at Tex’s offensive numbers from both sides of the plate hitting to different fields, and TYA’s Michael Eder pondered whether Tex bunting would actually work.
Today I thought I’d take a slightly different tack and dive into how pitchers are attacking Mark Teixeira, left-handed hitter. The good news for Tex is that he improved his performance against the fastball this season (although wFF numbers are cumulative from both sides of the plate), fininishing the year at 12.3 runs above average. Still, this is a far cry from the heady days of wFF numbers in the high-20s. Unfortunately for Tex, his woes against the curveball continued in 2011, and he actually tied for the 9th-worst wCU/100 mark in the American League. So what’s going on with Tex against the curve? The below chart shows various outcomes for Tex against the curveball when hitting from the left side of the plate (data c/o both TexasLeaguers.com and JoeLefkowitz.com):
Following the curve’s whopping success against left-handed Tex in 2010, righties slightly increased the number of hooks they threw the Yankee slugger last season, from 11.2% to 11.8%. Now obviously we’re talking about a pretty small rise, but with Tex also seeing significantly fewer four-seamers than he did in 2009 (46.4% down to 38.1%), the minimal increase carries a bit more weight.
Right-handers threw the curve less frequently for strikes in 2011, but Tex still swung at them with essentially the same frequency as the previous year. He hit them in the air more frequently than he had previously as a Yankee (no surprise given his predilection for popping out to the infield), fouled them off slightly more frequently, hit fewer on the ground, and to his credit, actually whiffed less frequently than the previous two years. However, he also stopped hitting the curve for as much power, following a 1.3% HR% in 2009 with two straight seasons of 0.4%.
Given the curveball’s continued effectiveness against Tex, I was curious to see whether its deployment increased depending on the count. The below chart shows curveball frequency when the pitcher is ahead (I’m considering 0-0 as the pitcher being ahead in this case, because anecdotally it seems like Tex never swings first pitch, even though B-Ref says he did at least 56 times last year):
I was a bit surprised to see the curve being most frequently deployed on 0-2 and 1-2 in 2009, but perhaps the most telling component of this graph is that pitchers have significantly increased their likelihood of trying to get ahead of Tex at the start of his at-bats, dropping a curve in on the first pitch 13.9% of the time last season, a three-year high.
And what’s been happening when Tex does make contact?
His LD BABIP spiked back up last season after a woeful .250 in 2010, but was still nearly 200 points below its 2009 high of .833. His FB BABIP on the curve unsurprisingly fell to a three-year low, and his GB BABIP basically remained constant.
Now, in fairness to Tex, part of the curveball issue is that he has to face some outstanding curveball-throwing pitchers. Out of the 233 curveballs he saw from righties in 2011, 79, or 34%, were thrown by Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, James Shields, Felix Hernandez, Jeremy Hellickson and John Lackey (pitchers he had 10 at-bats or more against each). Outside of Lackey, those hurlers are among the best in in the league, and so Tex probably needs to be cut some slack.
However, he’s shown that he’s not completely useless against the curveball in the past, and it would bode well for the 2012 Yankees if he can recognize that right-handed pitchers are probably going to attack him earlier in the count with curveballs and ideally hold off from swinging at said curves unless he actually is able to revise his approach from the left side with Kevin Long.
Talking about Burnett for a change
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(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty)
For those of you sick of A.J. Burnett analysis, you have my sympathies, and please feel free to skip this post. For the masochists in the audience, I was inspired to take another spin down the Burnett freeway by our pal Brad Vietrogoski, who wrote a thought-provoking piece about everyone’s least-favorite Yankee on Tuesday. The following statement in particular caught my attention:
It’s not so much the two nasty curveballs that they swing and miss at in the at-bat that matter any more; it’s the fastball A.J. grooves with 2 strikes that they’re squaring up on and driving for power.
Having written about Burnett’s splits last month, I was curious to see whether the idea that Burnett was just laying it in there with two strikes held water.
A.J.’s tOPS+ (his performance relative to how he performs in all situations, with 100 being average and anything lower representing above-average for the pitcher) with two strikes last year was 36, while his tOPS+ while ahead in the count was 16, which means A.J. performed far better than normal in those situations. His sOPS+in each of those categories was 108 and 81, respectively, which means he was slightly worse than league average with two strikes in the count but almost 20% better when ahead. Essentially this tells me that it’s safe to say that A.J.’s issues last season weren’t necessarily grooving a fastball with two strikes.
However, he probably does have a sequencing issue, as evinced by his 208 tOPS+ when the batter is ahead in the count, and 157 sOPS+. While the 208 isn’t as crazy as it might initially seem, as we’d expect a pitcher to perform worse in favorable counts for the batter (for reference, CC Sabathia‘s tOPS+ was a near-identical 206); the 57% worse than league average part is a bit more damning (CC’s was 111 in those situations).
So what is A.J. throwing when falling behind in the count? The following splits are taken from Fangraphs — it’s important to note that these are BIS classifications and not PITCHf/x, and may not be exact, but they should be close enough for our purposes.
In 2011, he threw a three-year low percentage of fastballs in 1-0 counts, while his changeup percentage spiked from 3% all the way to 20%.
In 2-0 counts, A.J. decreased his fastball deployment to 88%, and went from throwing no changeups in this count in 2010 to 10% in 2011.
Getting a fastball from A.J. Burnett when ahead 3-0 is as sure a thing as there is in sports.
Again, a three-year-low in fastball%, while a spike in changeup deployment from 3% in 2010 to 13%.
Pretty sure you see where I’m going with this by now.
In 2011, A.J. Burnett decreased the percentage of fastballs he threw while upping his changeup percentage in every favorable hitter’s count. This unsurprisingly resulted in A.J. throwing more changeups overall last season than at any point in his three-year Yankee career (these are PITCHf/x classifications):
Why would he do this? Well, for starters, if you had the least-effective fastball in the American League, you’d probably stay away from it too. We’re all painfully aware of the diminished effectiveness of A.J.’s once-dominating heater.
Despite the drop in velocity, A.J.’s 2011 fastball still ranked as tied for the 15th-fastest in the game. Of course, it doesn’t matter how hard you throw if (a) you’re not getting any movement on it, (b) you don’t offer enough different looks to keep hitters guessing, and (c) all of the above. As far as (b) goes, to A.J.’s credit it appears he was toying with something of a cutter this past season, although it wasn’t exactly effective. He also appeared to have significantly cut back on sinker usage in favor of the change in 2011, though he barely threw either pitch in 2009.
While I commend A.J.’s appearing to be willing to try new things to right his ship, it’s pretty clear the change isn’t the answer for him, as its ineffectiveness (12th-worst in the AL) is likely tied in part to the fact that there’s just not enough separation in velocity from his heater. In 2009 the delta between his four-seamer and change was 7.2 miles per hour. In 2010 that shrunk to 5.3, and this past season it fell even further to 4.7.
So essentially in 2011, Burnett began turning to his changeup more frequently due in part to the decreased velocity on his fastball — this is not a terrible idea in theory; Mike Mussina for one had to reinvent himself as a pitcher as his velocity decreased near the end of his career — however, an inability to concurrently decrease the speed on his change resulted in what at times probably just looked like a slow, eminently hittable fastball. With hitters knowing full well that the likelihood of seeing a curve in a hitters’ count was slim to none, it’s sadly no surprise they teed off on Burnett’s changeup.
Comparing Teixeira’s Contract To Fielder’s
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Don't hate on my MS Paint skills. (Both photos via AP)
In perhaps the most extreme case of overreaction in baseball history, the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214M contract two weeks ago after learning that Victor Martinez would miss the season with a knee problem. It’s the fourth largest contract in baseball history, and like many of you, I couldn’t help but think that Mark Teixeira eight-year, $180M contract suddenly looked a whole lot better by comparison. Fielder is the better player at the moment, but Teixeira didn’t get his contract at the moment. He signed it three years ago.
Given the enormous outlays, let’s compare the two players and their contracts. To do this, we’re going to go back in time a bit and look at the player Teixeira was when he signed his contract, because that’s more applicable when comparing these massive deals. He was 28 years old when the Yankees signed him prior to 2009, a year older than Fielder is right now. Both guys are Scott Boras clients, so that makes the comparison a little easier. With all due respect, no agent is as successful as Boras when it comes to getting top dollar.
We’re going to break the comparison into four sections: offense, baserunning, defense, and durability. The first three are self-explanatory, and durability is quite underappreciated in my opinion. If you’re giving out contracts like these, you want to be damn sure the player can stay on the field. Let’s start with the money-makers, the bats…
Offense
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | K% | uIBB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 0.298 | 0.393 | 0.541 | 141 | 0.244 | 0.395 | 139 | 16.8% | 11.3% |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 0.287 | 0.409 | 0.547 | 155 | 0.260 | 0.403 | 153 | 18.0% | 12.7% |
Both players are well above average offensively, both in terms of getting on-base and launched baseballs into orbit. Teixeira was approximately 40% better than league average back in the day while Fielder is roughly 50% better than league average today, so Prince is the better hitter by a not small margin. It is worth noting that Teixeira is a switch-hitter, and back then he had a relatively small platoon split (134 wRC+ vs. RHP and 148 vs. LHP from ’06-’08). Fielder is a lefty and has shown a somewhat significant split throughout over the last three years (168 wRC vs. RHP but 119 vs. LHP). He’s the better hitter, but the switch-hitting thing is a definite plus for Tex.
Baserunning
| SB | CS | SB% | XB% | BsR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 4 | 0 | 100% | 40% | -0.8 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 4 | 4 | 50% | 19% | -16.4 |
Baserunning is an important part of the game, but it really doesn’t have as much impact as you might think. The different between the best and worst baserunners in a given season will be something like 30 runs, and we’re talking Michael Bourn vs. Jorge Posada type of stuff. Most players are within five runs of league average (one way or the other) with few outliers.
He’s slow and he makes funny faces when he runs, but Teixeira was a pretty good baserunner once upon a time. He took the extra base 40% of the time from 2006-2008 (meaning he went first-to-third on a single, first-to-home on a double, etc.), ever so slightly above the league average (39%). Fielder is well below average on the bases, taking the extra roughly half as often as the average player (league average is 41% these days). In terms of runs created on the bases (that’s BsR), Tex was essentially league average again while Fielder was well below. We’re talking a 15 or so run difference between the two players over a three-year span, or five runs a year. None a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.
Just ignore the stolen base stuff, neither of these guys are asked to do much of that.
Defense
| UZR | DSR | TZ | FRAA | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 17 | 16 | 21.1 | 3.7 | 14.5 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | -10.8 | -15 | -25.8 | -11.9 | -15.9 |
Advanced fielding metrics aren’t perfect, especially for first baseman. They are useful over large samples though, especially in conjunction with the ol’ eye test. Teixeira is a great fielder and always has been by reputation, and the numbers back that up. Fielder is the opposite, a poor defender with the reputation to match. You can quibble with the exact numbers if you want, but they pass the sniff test. A 30 or so run gap is significant, even when talking about a three-year stretch.
Durability
| Games | Games Started | DL trips | Days on DL | Day-to-Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 451 | 440 | 1 | 37 | 10 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 485 | 481 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Durability is a skill to a certain extent, and like I said earlier, I think it’s underappreciated. Fielder is arguably the most durable position player in the sport right now, appearing in all but one game over the last three years and starting all but five of them. That’s pretty amazing. Teixeira missed more than five weeks with a quad strain in 2007, but otherwise he appeared in 162 and 157 games in 2006 and 2008, respectively.
This is a pretty good spot to talk about the body types, because they are important. Teixeira’s got the prototypical robot baseball player build, meaning 6-foot-3 and 220 lbs., with less body fat than I have in my left thigh. Fielder’s a portly little guy, listed on the Tigers official site at 5-foot-11 and 275 lbs. That doesn’t mean he’s out of shape — there’s a difference between being fat and being out of shape — but his body is absolutely a concern going forward. All that extra weight can lead to knee and back problems later in his career. Three years ago (and even today), no one had any reason to be concerned about Teixeira physically.
Adding up the WARs
| fWAR | bWAR | WARP | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 15.0 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 14.5 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 15.3 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 14.1 |
As far as I’m concerned, there’s no difference between 14.5 and 14.1 WAR. The various WAR models just aren’t accurate enough to get worked up over a four run difference. All this tells us is that Teixeira’s fielding and baserunning closed the gap between his offense and Fielder’s, nothing more. This is how each player performed in the three years leading up to their free agency, not an indication of how they’re likely to perform going forward. It might give you an idea of what to expect in the future, but make that assumption at your own risk.
At the end of the day, we have two very similar players in 2006-2008 Teixeira and 2009-2011 Fielder. Both guys were top ten draft picks once upon a time, both play the same position, both are young and very much in the primes of their careers, and both have provided the same amount of value in the three years leading up to their free agency. They’re both $100M+ players, no doubt about that. Going forward though, wouldn’t you rather have the switch-hitter than provides better defense and has the better body? I know I would.
In many ways, Fielder’s contract is one of Boras’ best. He got Teixeira 8/180 when both the Yankees and Red Sox were heavily involved in the bidding, but then three years later he got Fielder 9/214 with almost no big money teams in the market for the first baseman. Convincing the Tigers to sign Prince to that contract when they already had a better player with his own nine-figure contract at the same position is nothing short of player representation genius in my book.
What can the Yankees reasonably expect out of David Phelps?
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(Beverly Schaefer / For the Times)
Note: This post was initially written prior to the Big Trade. With the Yankee rotation depth chart now seven deep at the Major League level, the likelihood of seeing David Phelps starting for the big league club at any point in 2012 has probably shrunk to nonexistent. Though in Phelps’ favor, with the recent departure of Hector Noesi he and rotationmate Adam Warren have become the de facto “next in line” at AAA should the Yankees indeed simultaneously lose three starting pitchers to injury.
Last winter, most of the non-”Killer Bs” buzz regarding Yankee prospects surrounded Ivan Nova and Hector Noesi, both of whom acquitted themselves rather well during their first full seasons in the big leagues. With Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances both expected to need further seasoning in AAA before getting the call to contribute at the MLB level full time, the two pitchers that we started hearing a fair amount about last offseason and who now appear to be next in line in the rotation pecking order when one of the Yankees’ presumed starting five inevitably goes down with an injury are David Phelps (who Mike profiled a little over a year ago) and Adam Warren (Axisa profile). Today I’m going to take a look at what the Yankees might reasonably expect out of the former.
I found myself intrigued by the now-24-year-old right-hander — who most prospect mavens have pegged as a back-end-of-the-rotation guy at best — after seeing John Sickels recently rank him aggressively at #7 on his list of top 20 Yankee prospects, saying the following:
“I like (Phelps) more than most people do. Has developed the secondary pitches needed to off-set the fastball, and was one of the few pitchers who didn’t get killed in the Arizona Fall League. Could be a fourth starter if given a chance.”
While “fourth-starter-upside” isn’t anything to get terribly excited over — and from what I gather, I get the sense that people aren’t terribly enamored of Sickels’ evaluations as it is — I don’t know that I’d automatically thumb my nose at a guy who could hypothetically settle in as a #4 starter in an MLB rotation.
Phelps was drafted by the Yankees out of Notre Dame in the 14th round of the 2008 draft, and was immediately put to work in short season Staten Island. Here’s a chart of his progression:
While I don’t think Phelps is expected to generate an overwhelming number of strikeouts should he make it to the bigs, it’s still decently impressive that he’s managed to sustain a 7.00+ K/9 ever since moving up to Charleston, while never allowing his walk rate to rise above 3 men per nine. Reasonable strikeout and walk rates combined with a HR/9 that’s never eclipsed 1.0 — even this past fall in the notoriously hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League — has helped Phelps keep his FIP below 4.00 every season. Based solely on his raw numbers, there’s a fair amount to like from this picture.
The other reason I wanted to examine Phelps is that, by virtue of playing in the aforementioned AzFL, we have access (albeit limited) to PITCHf/x data, which is installed in two of the league’s six parks. Poring through the data, I found the two games on the Phoenix Dirt Dogs’ schedule that had them playing in Peoria and Surprise and also coincided with two of Phelps’ eight starts.
On November 7 Phelps threw 5 innings of two-run, three-hit ball with three strikeouts, one walk and one home run. On November 17 Phelps threw 5 innings of two-run, five-hit ball with six strikeouts, no walks and no home runs.
Here’s a breakdown of the 134 pitches he threw:
So based on this data Phelps is a fastball-slider righty, who also won’t shy away from throwing a changeup ~8mph slower than his fastball, or dropping in a curve. In Mike’s profile from December 2010, he noted the following about Phelps:
“Once a scrawny kid that would sit in the low-90′s on a good day, Phelps has filled out his 6-foot-3 frame (190 lbs.) and now throws his fastball at 93-95 mph consistently. Minor league pitching coordinator Nardi Contreras made some minor adjustments soon after Phelps signed, leading to the improved velocity. He also throws a two-seam fastball right around 90 mph, a good curveball, and both a below average slider and changeup. The curve is the closest thing Phelps has to a strikeout pitch, but it still needs some more improvement. At the moment he’s a ground ball pitcher, but that can change if one of the offspeed pitches takes that step forward.”
I saw a lot of 89-91mph fastballs in the PITCHf/x data, and so I’m guessing Phelps’ arm was somewhat tired by the time he got to the AFL after throwing roughly 114 innings in 2011 in both rehab and Scranton (Ed. Note: Phelps missed close to three months this summer with shoulder fatigue, so that could have contributed to the diminished velocity as well). If Phelps actually does usually sit at ~93mph with his fastball, a strong early showing at AAA could make him a valuable trade chip come July. Ultimately, I don’t know that anything about Phelps screams dominance, but it also doesn’t seem crazy to think that he could contribute as a starting pitcher at a league-average level in MLB.
For more on Phelps, be sure to check out TYA’s Brad Vietrogoski’s Top 30 Yankee Prospects capsules over at An A-Blog for A-Rod. Phelps checks in at #8.
Does Nick Swisher vanish against good pitching?
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(Photo by Al Bello/Getty)
One of the commenters in my post about Nick Swisher last month suggested that Swish’s struggles in the postseason were due in part to the fact that hitters are facing their opponents’ best pitchers, or something to that effect. While it’s probably true that an offensive bludgeoning is less likely to occur during a postseason game than, say, in August, I also think it’s a convenient excuse for teams that aren’t hitting. We’ve frequently seen the Yankee bats run the gamut from laser-hot to ice-cold during the postseason, though we tend to remember the games in which the bats didn’t show up more often than not, given how accustomed we’ve become to fielding a powerhouse offense.
Unfortunately one of the primary issues when judging both a player’s and team’s postseason performances is that the samples are almost always too small, and the very nature of baseball dictates that any player, no matter how good, is going to suffer through a slump at one point or another. That’s not to minimize the impact of facing elite pitching in the postseason; but on the flipside not even pitchers are infallible and even the best ones have less-than-great days. CC Sabathia had a 6.23 ERA in 8.2 innings in the 2011 ALDS; Justin Verlander a 5.00 in 9.0 IP.
The point of all this is that, based on what we know of Nick Swisher’s offensive abilities over the course of a 162-game season, it’s crazy to to assert that he “can’t hit in the postseason.” Unless Swisher has actually demonstrated a distinct inability to hit so-called “good” pitching, the only explanation that really makes sense as far as his struggles have gone is the recurrence of several ill-timed slumps.
Prior to embarking on this post I’d initially hoped to be able to segment batches of “good” (which I would have defined as being 10% better than league average) and “bad” pitchers, and then tally Swisher’s stats against them in an effort to see how exactly he performed against these pitcher types, but B-Ref won’t allow me to export Play Index results to Excel, and there was no way I was going to manually re-enter all of the data.
Instead, below is a table showing all of the starting pitchers Swisher has faced during his three-year Yankee career (including the postseason), minimum 10 PAs. While 10-plus PAs isn’t anywhere near a large-enough sample, if we’re going to castigate Swish for small-sample failure in the playoffs, we also have to accord him respect for small-sample success.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | HBP | GDP | missG | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Beckett | 40 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | .171 | .275 | .343 | .618 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jon Lester | 36 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 | .300 | .400 | .533 | .933 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ricky Romero | 30 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | .217 | .400 | .348 | .748 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| David Price | 29 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | .455 | .586 | .682 | 1.268 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| John Lackey | 27 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | .250 | .333 | .375 | .708 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Felix Hernandez | 24 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .217 | .250 | .391 | .641 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| James Shields | 23 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | .174 | .174 | .435 | .609 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Brandon Morrow | 23 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | .136 | .174 | .273 | .447 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Francisco Liriano | 23 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | .143 | .174 | .190 | .364 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 22 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | .450 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cliff Lee | 22 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | .211 | .273 | .579 | .852 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C.J. Wilson | 21 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | .222 | .333 | .444 | .778 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brett Cecil | 21 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | .235 | .381 | .235 | .616 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Brian Matusz | 19 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .063 | .211 | .250 | .461 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Justin Verlander | 19 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | .111 | .158 | .167 | .325 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Matt Garza | 17 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | .538 | .647 | 1.308 | 1.955 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jason Vargas | 17 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .357 | .412 | .857 | 1.269 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Derek Holland | 17 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | .286 | .412 | .429 | .840 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brian Tallet | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | .231 | .375 | .538 | .913 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kevin Millwood | 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | .286 | .375 | .500 | .875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brett Anderson | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | .231 | .375 | .231 | .606 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Joel Pineiro | 15 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | .462 | .500 | .846 | 1.346 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andy Sonnanstine | 15 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | .385 | .467 | .846 | 1.313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rick Porcello | 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | .231 | .333 | .462 | .795 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clay Buchholz | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .273 | .429 | .364 | .792 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | HBP | GDP | missG | |||||
| Scott Kazmir | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .417 | .702 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fausto Carmona | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .400 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gio Gonzalez | 14 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | .333 | .429 | .667 | 1.095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brad Bergesen | 14 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | .273 | .429 | .455 | .883 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Daniel Bard | 14 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | .214 | .214 | .429 | .643 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jason Frasor | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .452 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Jeff Niemann | 14 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .071 | .071 | .071 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jake Arrieta | 14 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Trevor Cahill | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | .333 | .538 | 1.111 | 1.650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brian Duensing | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .455 | .538 | .909 | 1.448 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ervin Santana | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .250 | .538 | .750 | 1.288 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Jason Berken | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | .300 | .462 | .600 | 1.062 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wade Davis | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | .200 | .385 | .600 | .985 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark Buehrle | 13 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .400 | .538 | .400 | .938 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| John Danks | 13 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .273 | .385 | .545 | .930 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tim Wakefield | 13 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .250 | .308 | .333 | .641 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Darren Oliver | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | .000 | .231 | .000 | .231 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chris Tillman | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | .400 | .500 | .800 | 1.300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Marc Rzepczynski | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .400 | .417 | .800 | 1.217 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sean O’Sullivan | 12 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .273 | .333 | .636 | .970 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Doug Fister | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .273 | .333 | .545 | .879 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Max Scherzer | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | .222 | .417 | .222 | .639 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Joe Saunders | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .300 | .364 | .300 | .664 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tommy Hunter | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | .182 | .182 | .455 | .636 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Carl Pavano | 11 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .182 | .182 | .273 | .455 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | HBP | GDP | missG | |||||
| Gavin Floyd | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .182 | .182 | .182 | .364 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bruce Chen | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .600 | .500 | 1.100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Matt Harrison | 10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .500 | .444 | .944 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mark Hendrickson | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .400 | .400 | .500 | .900 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luke French | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .222 | .300 | .556 | .856 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lance Cormier | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .286 | .500 | .286 | .786 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zach Britton | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | .000 | .300 | .000 | .300 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
David Price and Jon Lester are two of the best pitchers in the American League. Swisher has killed ‘em both. Cliff Lee? .852 OPS against. Matt Garza doesn’t stand a chance against Swisher. Gio Gonzalez, arguably the most-sought-after pitcher on the trade market, may as well be throwing Swish batting practice. Same with Trevor Cahill and Ervin Santana. RAB favorite John Danks? Swish has hit him to the tune of a .930 OPS in 13 PAs.
The naysayers in the audience will undoubtedly point out Swish’s struggles against Josh Beckett and James Shields (though among the Yankees that’s far from a Swisher-only issue), but on the whole, I’m not sure one could reasonably conclude that Nick Swisher routinely struggles against good pitching.
(Ed. Note: Keep in mind that while .641 OPS against Felix over the last three seasons looks bad, Hernandez has held all hitters to a .616 OPS during that time. We’re referencing a very different baseline when talking about top pitchers. Context is everything.)
For the folks who want to pin his postseason struggles on something tangible, there really is no better explanation than Swish happening to slump on three separate occasions, with each unfortunately coming at one of the worst possible times for the Yankees. This doesn’t make his regular season contributions — which have helped the team get to the playoffs in each of his three pinstriped years — any less valuable, nor does it mean that he is forever doomed to postseason failure (see Rodriguez, Alex).
