River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Analysis

Luis’s Lost Whiffs

by Leave a Comment

(Presswire)

Yesterday was another clunker of a start for Yankees’ ace Luis Severino, making it two disaster starts in a row, following a not so great one against Cleveland and a meh-at-best one against the Blue Jays. On the plus side, he only gave up one home run against the Royals yesterday, after surrendering at two apiece in his last three starts prior. Another plus? He’s mostly kept the walks down while maintaining a high strikeout rate–except against Cleveland. Regardless, his performance in July was nothing like his performance in April through June, so what gives? The answer, my friends, is blowing in the wind that Severino’s pitches aren’t generating lately.

From the beginning of the season through his July 1 start against Boston, Severino’s (excellent) fastball netted him a whiff/swing% of 23.04. The changeup? 24.27. Slider? 37.82. Those are all solid marks befitting a hurler with the kind of stuff Severino has. But since then, through yesterday, all of those numbers have seen marked dropoffs.

In that time frame, Severino’s fastball whiff/swing% is all the way down to 14.29. His changeup’s whiff/swing% is down to a shockingly low 8.33%. The slider’s drop off to 33.33 isn’t alarming or overly big, but a drop is a drop. Not surprisingly, this has led to an increase in balls in play on his fastball, from 15.39 to 21.28. On all three pitches, his fly ball and line drive percentages have climbed, also leading to increases in HR/(FB+LD) rates on his fastball and slider. On his slider and changeup both, the ground ball percentages have dropped by about 5% each.

With regards to the fastball and its drop in whiffs, a big culprit seems to be that hitters against Severino aren’t swinging through fastballs in the zone like they were before. Now, especially in that top part of the zone, hitters are whiffing less. It’s not a velocity issue, as he’s still averaging in the high 90’s. Perhaps, then, it’s a sequencing issue or hitters are reading the ball out of his hand better. Another sign of that is the increase in swing rate on his fastball and the paired decrease in swing rate on his changeup.

Up through the Boston start, hitters swung at about half of Severino’s fastball–50.94%. In his last four starts, that number has crept up towards two-thirds–64.54. The swing rate on his changeup has gone from 44.40 to 34.29. This hints towards better pitch recognition on the hitters’ part or weaker deception on Severino’s part. Either way, it’s leading to issues and there needs to be a correction made.

This is only four starts in an otherwise brilliant season, but with the Yankees trying to chase down the seemingly indomitable Red Sox, each game matters. If I told you yesterday the Yankees would score five runs in a Luis Severino start, you’d think that was a win no matter what. It didn’t shake out that way and hasn’t for most of July. Hopefully August brings better returns for the Yankees’ ace.

Yankeemetrics: House of Horrors by the Bay (July 23-25)

by Leave a Comment

(AP)

Severino slumping, Gary the goat
The Yankees opened up their quick road trip in Tampa with what had become an all-too-familiar result recently — a frustrating loss with numerous wasted scoring chances and unfulfilled rallies.

Gary Sanchez, who reportedly re-injured his groin early in the game and later landed on the DL, bookended the game with two seemingly lazy and costly plays.

In the first inning he was charged with a passed ball that scored a run from second base and gave the Rays an early 1-0 lead. While Sanchez has a lot of defensive value based on his framing (top-10 per StatCorner’s metric and top-20 per Baseball Prospectus’ metric) and his strong arm (top-10 pop time and top-5 throw velocity, his struggles blocking pitches are no secret. He has 10 passed balls, tied for the most in MLB; according to Sports Info Solutions tracking, he has the third-lowest rate of successfully blocking pitches (88%).

In the ninth inning, with the bases loaded and two outs and trailing by a run, he scorched a game-ending groundout. Regardless of whether Sanchez was already injured or not hustling or both, according to the Statcast in-game tracking, his speed on that play was below his already-mediocre season averages

He is now 6-for-45 (.133) in “Late and Close” situations (plate appearances in the 7th inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck) this season, the fifth-worst batting average in the majors (min. 45 at-bats).

Sanchez, though, was hardly the only Yankee to blame for the loss. Aaron Hicks had his chance to play hero in the ninth inning too, but came up small prior to Sanchez’s at-bat. Although his grounder scored a run to make it 7-6, he failed to get the cash-money hit with the bases loaded, a recurring nightmare for Hicks. After Monday’s failure, he was 3-for-38 (.079) with the bases loaded in his career, tied with J.B. Shuck for the lowest batting average among active players (min. 30 at-bats).

Luis Severino also contributed to the Yankees early deficit, allowing a season-high seven runs and 11 hits — including two homers — before getting pulled in the sixth inning. It was the third straight game he coughed up multiple dingers, the longest streak of his career, and the third straight start he failed to get an out in the sixth. The only other Yankee in franchise history with three games in a row allowing at least two homers while pitching no more than five innings was Freddy Garcia in September 2011.

Severino appears to be in a little slump …

Luis Severino This Season
IP ERA HR K% Opp OPS
Last 3 Starts 15 7.80 6 20.3% 1.103
First 18 Starts 118.1 1.98 6 30.1% .533

Tanaka Time
The Yankees snapped their five-game losing streak against the Rays — which was tied for their longest ever in this rivalry — thanks to a dominant performance by Masahiro Tanaka and won 4-0 on Tuesday night. It was their eighth game allowing no runs this season, one more than they had in all of 2017.

(Getty)

Tanaka was dazzling on the mound, throwing a three-hit shutout with nine strikeouts and one walk. He retired the first 12 batters, and faced just two batters over the minimum thanks to a couple inning-ending double plays. The most encouraging stat might have been zero — as in the number of homers he gave up (and runs). Tanaka had surrendered at least one longball in eight straight starts and 13 of his first 15 games this season.

Instead, he was masterful in locating his nasty slider/splitter combo low in the zone and burying those pitches in the dirt.

A season-best 82.9 percent of his sliders and splitters were thrown in the lower third of the zone or below the knees, and overall he got a season-high 16 outs via grounders.

Tanaka’s brilliant performance deserves a sweet bullet-point Yankeemetric recap:

  • He joined Orlando Hernandez (June 22, 1999) as the only Yankees to throw a shutout at Tropicana Field.
  • Tanaka is the first Yankee since Mike Mussina on August 17, 2003 against the Orioles to allow three hits or fewer and strike out at least nine batters in a shutout.
  • This was Tanaka’s third career shutout; since his 2014 rookie season, all other Yankee pitchers have combined to throw two individual shutouts (Luis Severino this year and Brandon McCarthy in 2014).

And finally, he is the first Yankee pitcher with at least three shutouts in his first five MLB seasons since Ron Guidry tossed 16(!) across his first five big-league seasons from 1975-79.

(AP)

Dead wood society
The Yankees capped this series the same way they started it — a frustrating one-run loss filled with tons of RISP-fail and cold bats — at their newest House of Horrors. The ugly stats for the Yankees at Tropicana Field:

  • Yankees are 7-14 at Tropicana Field over the last three seasons, their worst record at any AL ballpark, and tied with Twins (3-6) and White Sox (2-4) for the worst record at the Trop by any AL team since 2016.
  • This season they are averaging 3.2 runs per game in six games at Tampa Bay and 5.0 runs per game in all other road games.
  • Yankees are 0-4 in one-run games at Tropicana Field this season, and 6-4 in one-run games at all other road ballparks.
  • Yankees have lost two series over the past two months — and both of them were at Tropicana Field (also June 22-24).

The Rays were also the first team to hold the Yankees without a homer in a three- or four-game series this season. In fact, it’s the first time in nearly two years the Yankees have gone three games in a row without a dinger, since September 22-24, 2016.

They have gone deep just once in five games since the break, their fewest homers in a five-game span since June 10-15, 2016 against the Tigers and Rockies. The Yankees entered the break with an MLB-best 161 homers; their one home run since the break is the fewest by any team.

Yankeemetrics: Shortened Subway Split (July 20-22)

by Leave a Comment

(New York Post)

Doomed by Domingo
The first game after the break on Friday night followed a familiar script that has plagued the Yankees over the past month-plus: they dug themselves into an early hole, wasted numerous scoring chances throughout the game, and ultimately staged a late-inning rally that fell just short, resulting in yet another frustrating loss.

They left 14 men on base, their most in a loss to the Mets since a 15-6 thrashing on June 27, 2008 — the first game of that memorable two-stadium Subway Series doubleheader — and the Yankees most in any nine-inning loss this season. And when you combine their 14 hits with the fact that they only lost by two runs, you get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series:

The last time the Yankees left at least 14 men on base and had at least 14 hits in a nine-inning game they lost by two or fewer runs was August 25, 1998 against the Angels. #interestingrandomstat

Domingo German made sure the Yankees would be playing from behind the entire night after he coughed up three runs in the first inning then another in the third before he was pulled with two outs in the fourth.

Among the 118 pitchers with at least 13 starts this season through Friday, German’s first-inning numbers and ranks as a starter are U-G-L-Y:

  • 9.00 ERA (4th-worst)
  • .691 slugging percentage allowed (worst)
  • .426 wOBA allowed (5th-worst)

He was pounded by the Mets as all five of the hits he gave up went for extra bases and four of the five had an exit velocity of at least 102 mph. And with that terrible performance, German gets our #NotFunFact of the Series:

Only two other Yankee starters (since 1908) have faced fewer than 20 batters, allowed at least five hits and all of them were extra-base hits in a game: the immortal Chase Wright (April 22, 2007 vs Red Sox) and Doyle Alexander (Aug. 10, 1982 vs Tigers).

(USA Today)

Shreve FTW!
The Yankees survived a bizarre and chaotic ninth-inning implosion by Aroldis Chapman for a much-needed bounceback win on Saturday afternoon. After beating Mets southpaw Steven Matz, the Yankees are now an MLB-best 24-6 vs left-handed starters this season, matching their win total from all of 2017 (24-23, 12th-best in MLB).

Miguel Andujar had the go-ahead hit during the Yankees big fourth-inning rally, an RBI double to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead. It was the 30th double of his career, in his 91st major-league game. The only Yankees to reach the 30-double milestone quicker than Andujar were Bob Meusel (67 games) and Joe DiMaggio (69 games).

The Yankees started the ninth with a seemingly comfortable four-run lead — prior to Saturday they were 52-0 this season when taking a lead into the ninth — but that cushion was quickly cut in half thanks to an epic meltdown by Chapman. He faced five batters: walk, single, walk, walk (run scored), hit by pitch (run scored) … dugout seat.

Yikes, that deserves a second Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: Chapman is just the second Yankee reliever in the last 100 years to face at least five batters, get no outs and have at least four of those batters reach base via hit-by-pitch and/or walk. The other? Edwar Ramirez on July 20, 2007 in the fifth inning of a 14-4 loss to Tampa Bay.

Even worse was his near-unprecedented lack of command, with just three of his 19 pitches going for strikes; the final 11 pitches went ball, ball, ball, ball, ball, ball, ball, ball, ball, ball, hit-by-pitch.

Since 1988 (when we have reliable pitch data), only two pitchers have thrown fewer strikes in a game where they faced at least five batters: the aforementioned Ramirez disaster outing in 2007 (2 strikes, 5 batters) and Blue Jays reliever Ryan Tepera on May 11, 2016 against the Giants (2 strikes, 5 batters).

So, of course, it was Chasen Shreve to the rescue! And somehow, this might have been Aaron Boone’s smartest move of the game — see our Most Remarkable Stat (MRS) below — bringing Shreve in with no outs and the bases loaded in the top of the ninth to clean up Chapman’s mess. Two batters and two groundouts (including a clutch double play) later, Shreve had earned his second career save and sealed the win for the Yankees.

Finally, our MRS of the Series: opponents are now 3-for-36 (.083) with the bases loaded against Shreve in his career. That’s the lowest bases-loaded batting average allowed by any active major-league pitcher who has faced at least 25 batters in that situation.

Yankeemetrics: Treading water into break (July 12-15)

by Leave a Comment

(AP)

Kluber Klobbered
The Yankees kickstarted their final pre-break series with a crazy comeback win, roughing up Corey Kluber while overcoming multiple deficits to beat the Indians 7-4 on Thursday night.

The Indians and Yankees traded punches all night, and Aaron Hicks eventually delivered the decisive blow with a tie-breaking RBI double in the eighth inning. That sealed the Yankees eighth win this season when tied at the start of the eighth inning, three more than they had all of last year and the second-most in baseball this season (behind the A’s).

Before Hicks’ clutch hit, a couple other guys got to wear the hero’s cape for a few innings.

  • Brett Gardner smoked a two-run homer in the third to knot the game at 2-2, his eighth homer of the season and sixth that either tied the game or gave the Yankees a lead.
  • After the Yankees fell behind yet again, Didi Gregorius evened it up with a monster 430-foot shot in the fourth inning, the longest home run he’s hit since Statcast tracking began in 2015.
  • Three batters later, Greg Bird put the Yankees back in front with a booming RBI double off the wall. In case you’ve been under a rock, Bird is finally heating up and making this already-stacked Yankees lineup even scarier.

Gardner capped off the scoring with another longball in the top of the ninth, his seventh career multi-homer game. Six of those seven have come while batting at the top of the order, matching Alfonso Soriano and Derek Jeter for the most career multi-homer games out of the leadoff spot in franchise history.

Its a good thing the Yankees were swinging hot bats because Luis Severino was approaching freezing temps against the Indians. He struggled from the start, giving up a double on his second pitch of the game, an RBI single and then a homer later in the first inning. The two runs and two extra-base hits he allowed on Thursday in the first inning nearly matched the total number of runs (3) and extra-base hits (3) he had allowed in the opening frame of his first 19 starts this season combined.

(Getty)

Down and out
The Yankees once again dug themselves into an early hole on Friday night thanks to shoddy starting pitching, but this time couldn’t complete the comeback, falling 6-5.

Domingo German was blitzed by the Indians, giving up four runs in the first two innings and then two more in the fifth. While he’s certainly not an ace after the first two frames, his innings splits as a starter are interesting, to say the least:

Domingo German As Starter
IP ERA Runs K/BB OPS
Innings 1-2 24 7.50 21 29/10 .840
Innings 3+ 39.1 5.03 23 44/13 .738

German really struggled with his fastball command, getting strikes on only half (22) of his fastballs thrown (44) against the Indians.

Yikes, that’s a lot of blue circles that are not even close to the zone. This is actually the second time this season he’s had a start with a fastball strike rate of 50 percent or less. No other Yankee pitcher who has thrown at least 30 fastballs in a game this season has done that even once.

German — not unlike many talented yet raw young pitchers — has flashed brilliance and dominance, but too often delivers duds. He has as many starts this season with zero or one earned runs allowed (4) as he does starts with at least six earned runs allowed (4). Through Friday, the only other MLB pitchers this season with four starts of six or more earned runs allowed are a trio of Royals — Jason Hammel, Jakob Junis and Danny Duffy.

Romine the Speed Demon
The Yankees and Indians both did their best to try and lose the game on Saturday with sloppy defense, but it was the Yankees who ultimately prevailed on a wacky play in the seventh inning by Austin Romine.

The Bronx Bombers got to work early, as Didi Gregorius clubbed a hanging changeup over the wall in centerfield for a 3-0 lead in the first inning. Since the start of last season (and through Saturday), the only shortstop who had hit more homers than Didi (42) was Francisco Lindor (56).

CC Sabathia looked solid through the first five innings, allowing just two hits and two runs. But then he got into trouble in the sixth as he faced the Indians lineup a third time, surrendering two more runs before getting pulled with two outs. As strong and effective as Sabathia has been this season, its not shocking he started to unravel in that final frame:

CC Sabathia Times Thru Order
BA OBP SLG
1st/2nd PA .215 .288 .345
MLB Avg .240 .311 .402
—- —- —- —-
3rd+ PA .350 .393 .612
MLB Avg .265 .334 .458

Austin Romine saved the game from being a disaster loss when he broke a 4-4 tie with a “Little League homer” — a double and two errors — in the top of the seventh.

His mad dash around the bases actually shouldn’t be that shocking for Romine, a guy that actually has better-than-average legs among his positional peers. According to Statcast’s speed metric (“Sprint Speed”), Romine ranks 10th out 37 catchers with at least 50 tracked runs.

Hanging Chad, Green not money
The Yankees head into the break coming off yet another disappointing loss, another game where they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing an early two-run lead and falling 5-2 to the Indians on Sunday afternoon.

Still, they finished the first half 62-33 (.653), their best pre-break record since 1998 (61-20, .753). Since the first All-Star game in 1933, this is the 13th time the Yankees have entered the break with a .650 win percentage or better. Of the previous 12 seasons it happened, the Yankees made the World Series 10 times and won it all seven times.

(Getty)

Masahiro Tanaka was sharp through the first few innings before coughing up the #obligatoryhomer to Edwin Encarnacion in the fourth, a two-run shot that tied the game 2-2. That was the 53rd dinger allowed by Tanaka since the start of last season, more than any other pitcher over the last two years (and remember, he was on the DL for a month, too). Those were the only runs he gave up over six-plus innings, which has become a trend for the homer-prone Tanaka: 64 percent of his runs allowed have come via the longball this season, compared to the league average of 40 percent.

Chad Green, who allowed a late game-tying two-run homer to Manny Machado in his previous outing on July 10, imploded for the second time in as many appearances. He surrendered three runs in the eighth inning — including a tie-breaking solo homer to Michael Brantley — and wore the goat’s horns again. It was the first time in his career he got tagged for multiple runs in back-to-back relief outings, and the three runs he gave up were his most ever in a game out of the bullpen.

Despite Green’s mess, the bullpen enters the break with a 2.69 ERA, the best first-half mark for any Yankee team in a non-strike season since 1976 (2.43). The potent lineup is putting up historical numbers so far, too, with a .463 slugging percentage. That’s the fourth-best pre-break slugging percentage by any Yankee team dating back to the first All-Star game in 1933. The only better years were 1936 (.511), 2002 (.476) and 2009 (.471.).

Hicks to the Sticks: Aaron’s Early Summer Power Surge

by Leave a Comment

(NJ.com)

It wasn’t horribly long ago that there was a lot of buzz on Yankee Twitter–the small segment of it I see, anyway–about how Aaron Hicks may not have been worth all the effort the Yankees have put into him. This may have been partially (mostly?) out of a desire to get Clint Frazier onto the team, which I can’t be mad about. Regardless of the source, however, much that talk has died down, though I’ve heard this on sports radio as well. Michael Kay is fond of saying how much “the Yankees LOVE Hicks,” which implies quite easily that he doesn’t. Even yesterday on WFAN, Chris Moore was making a point about low batting averages league-wide and specifically called out Hicks’s average, without any further context. You’d think that after his powerful June and July that talk might stop. Alas…

Generally speaking, Hicks has had moderate power in his career. There always seemed to be potential for more there as he showed respectable ISO marks in limited time with the Twins: .146 in 2013 and .142 in 2015. Are those eye-catching? Not really, but they’re good for a center fielder who also shows a good deal of patience at the plate. While 2016 with the Yankees wasn’t horribly powerful–.119–he flashed good power in 2017 (.209) and has moved even further with a .244 ISO this year; he’s also set a new career high of 16 homers, passing his mark of 15 from 2017. With increased playing time, Hicks has tapped into that power potential.

While not quite reaching a .200 ISO in April, he was at a more than respectable .192; his raw SLG for April was .432 It dipped in May down to .161, but that was still above his career mark. That ISO and a good walk rate and relatively low strikeout rate were about the only good things for Hicks in the month of May; a .236 BABIP left his raw numbers looking pretty paltry for the month. This is when calls for him to be replaced were the loudest. Then, things took off in June and carried into July.

In June, Hicks slugged .547, thanks to a monster .267 ISO and a 21.4% HR/FB mark. This all helped lead to a .373 wOBA and 138 wRC+, making it his most productive month…until July. So far, Hicks has a .443 wOBA and a 186 wRC+, slugging .683 (!) with a .439 (!) ISO. He’s basically been Aaron Judge instead of Aaron Hicks for the month of July. So what happened in these last two months?

As so much of hitting tends to, it starts with the fastball. In April and May, Hicks did a good job of making contact with fastballs–3.8% whiff/swing rate–and making good contact on the pitch: 33.33% LD/BIP. However, just 4.76% of the fastballs he hit into the air made it out. When we fast forward to June and July, we see a big jump in whiff/swing rate, but a maintenance of a high line drive rate and a widely improved HR/FB+LD%: 16.7%. Hicks has also managed to elevate sinkers and changeups enough to hit them out at relatively high rates, too. Lastly, let’s take a look at his zone profile for June and July and take note of how massively he’s hammering anything in the middle of the plate, especially up–.909 ISO!

Aaron Hicks is someone the Yankees have shown faith in and June and July of this year have shown great rewards for that faith and patience. By elevating the ball and attacking balls in the middle of the plate, he’s shown his power potential in as strong a way as he ever has.

Yankeemetrics: The Camden Yards rollercoaster (July 9-11)

by Leave a Comment

(AP)

Sabathia’s newest kryptonite
As exciting as this season has been for the Yankees, they hadn’t been able to beat up on the dreadful Orioles. Their frustrations against baseball’s cellar-dweller continued in the opener of Monday’s doubleheader as they blew a three-run lead and lost 5-4.

This was the fourth time this season the Yankees have blown a lead of three-or-more runs and lost against a team that entered the day with a win percentage below .400. That’s the most such losses of any team in the majors this season. And here’s an unfathomable stat to chew on: from 2011-17, they suffered only four such losses in those seven seasons combined.

CC Sabathia cruised through the first three innings, before getting into trouble in the fourth and then imploding in the sixth. This continued a string of awful starts against the Orioles, as he’s now winless with a 5.96 ERA in his last eight starts against them since mid-2016. And it’s somehow been even worse recently:

Should Aaron Boone have sent Sabathia out for the sixth inning, with the heart of the Orioles order coming to bat for the third time? The numbers say he’s really struggled in that situation this year:

CC Sabathia This Season
Batters Faced BA/OBP/SLG
1st PA 153 .213/.275/.305
2nd PA 152 .230/.3016/.393
3rd+ PA 102 .344/.382/.617

So, the third/fourth time through the order, he’s almost turned every batter into J.D. Martinez (.330/.393/.649) this season.

Hail, Gritty Gutty Brett Gardner
The Yankees avoided the ultimate embarrassment — getting swept by the worst team in baseball — and destroyed the Orioles, 10-2, in the nightcap of Monday’s doubleheader.

The bats finally woke up (17 hits) and came through in the clutch (7-for-15 with RISP) as they produced one of their best offensive games in Baltimore in more than a decade. Its the first time since a 10-2 win on September 2, 2009 that they scored double-digit runs and had more than 15 hits at Camden Yards.

And if you want to consider the power display — seven homers and two doubles — this game was nearly unprecedented. The only other time the Yankees scored at least 10 runs and had nine extra-base hits in a game in Baltimore was a 16-0 win over the Orioles on April 30, 1960!

(AP)

Brett Gardner sparked the offense, going 4-for-6 with a homer and three RBI. Dating back to the start of 2017 (and including the postseason), the Yankees are 22-3 when Gardy homers in a game. His awesome effort also earned him our coveted Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: this is Gardner’s fourth career game with at least four hits and three RBI from the leadoff spot. That’s the most 4-hit, 3-RBI games by any leadoff batter in franchise history.

Luis Cessa delivered one of the best performances of his career, throwing six scoreless innings and getting his first win as a starter since August 26, 2016 against the Orioles. Gio Gallegos pitched the final three frames and converted the rare three-inning save, his first career major-league save. It also produced this cool note: Cessa and Gallegos are the first Mexican-born tandem to earn a win and save in the same game for the Yankees.

(AP)

Deja Vu All Over Again
The Yankees mediocre play against the Orioles reached dire levels on Tuesday night as they blew multiple leads and again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when the Orioles won it on a game-ending hit in the bottom of the ninth.

The fact that the Yankees have struggled to string together wins here in Baltimore is not surprising. They entered this series with a 13-25 (.342) record at Camden Yards over the last five seasons, easily their worst at any AL ballpark since 2014. In fact, its also by far the worst record at Camden Yards for any of the AL East teams in the span; the Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox have each won at least 43 percent of their games there since 2014.

Masahiro Tanaka came off the DL to make his first start since June 8, and he was back to being the typical Tanaka, giving up the #Obligatoryhomerun. It was an 89-mph fastball perfectly placed in the meatball zone, ready for Manny Machado to crush 444 feet into the left-centerfield seats.

Tanaka has allowed 52 homers in 44 games (255 1/3 innings) since the start of 2017, tied with Ian Kennedy for the most in the majors over the last two seasons. His home run rate in 2018 is now 2.0 per 9 IP, which is on pace to be the worst ever for any Yankee pitcher with at least 20 starts in a season.

Machado delivered the biggest blows, tying the game twice with a solo homer in the fifth and a two-run shot in seventh. Those were his 19th and 20th homers against the Yankees since 2015, five more than any other player has hit in the last four seasons. It was also his fourth career multi-homer game versus the Yankees, the most of any player against them since his debut in 2012.

(AP)

Deja Vu All Over Again, Part II
Two down, two up for the Yankees as they routed the Orioles, 9-0, to split the four-game series. It was their largest shutout win ever at Camden Yards, and their largest against the Orioles in Baltimore since a 10-0 blanking on June 19, 1985 at Memorial Stadium. This was also the Yankees seventh shutout in 2018, matching their total from all of last year.

Greg Bird broke the game open when he went deep with the bases loaded in the third inning, belting his first career grand slam to give the Yankees a 5-0 lead. Bird was 1-for-14 with seven strikeouts in his career with the bases full before hitting that homer. He joined a sweet group of Yankee first baseman to hit a grand slam in Baltimore:

  • Tino Martinez May 1, 1996
  • Don Mattingly Sept. 25, 1987
  • Bill Skowron April 22, 1961 and April 14, 1959

It was also his second straight game with at least four RBI, the first Yankee to do that since Alfonso Soriano in 2013. And he also earned this #FunFact: Bird is the only player in franchise history to drive in at least four runs in back-to-back games against the Orioles (since the team changed its nickname and moved to Baltimore in 1954).

Giancarlo Stanton quietly had another huge game at the plate, going 4-for-5 with two RBI. His five games with at least four hits are the most in MLB — and the same number that the rest of the Yankees have combined this season.

Sonny Gray bounced back from his two worst starts as a Yankee to throw one of his best starts as a Yankee, holding the Orioles scoreless over six innings while striking out eight. In four starts against the Royals and Orioles this season he is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA; against all other teams this season he is 2-7 with a 6.96 ERA.

If only he could pitch all his games at Camden Yards against the Orioles …

Yankeemetrics: Bombers snap Canadian Curse (July 6-8)

by Leave a Comment

(Getty)

Gray skies forever
The Yankees kicked of their 11-game, 10-day road trip with the type of loss that has become all too familiar for this team recently — a disaster outing by Sonny Gray, who was pummeled by the Blue Jays on Friday night.

If there was any team and/or place where Gray might finally show the Yankees he deserved a permanent spot in the rotation this summer, it would have been in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Over his previous six road starts, Gray had produced a 2.27 ERA. He also entered Friday’s matchup with a career 1.88 ERA in seven starts at the Rogers Centre, the third-best mark by any pitcher with that many starts at the ballpark; and in four starts there as a Yankee, his ERA was 1.50.

All of that historical, positive momentum was quickly obliterated as Gray was pounded early and often by the Blue Jays lineup. He gave up five runs on six hits, including a home run, before getting yanked after the second inning. He retired only six of the 15 batters he faced, as he also walked two batters and hit a guy — and don’t forget about the two wild pitches he threw. Congrats, Sonny, you get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series!

The list of Yankee starters that were able to cram all of that awfulness — five earned runs, nine baserunners, two wild pitches — into an out of two innings or fewer is short: Gray, Ivan Nova (Sept. 12, 2015) and Tommy John (May 25, 1980). Somehow, each of those three games were against the Blue Jays.

Yet, this might not have been Gray’s most embarrassing start in the past week. In his previous start against the Red Sox on June 30, he gave up six runs on seven hits while lasting one out into the third inning. And with those back-to-back ugly games, he joined this group of pinstriped anti-legends:

Through Friday, the Yankees were 7-10 in games started by Gray and 49-19 in games started by all other Yankee pitchers. He had started 20 percent of all Yankees games, but was the starter in 34.5 percent of their losses.

We’ll end with one highlight, Aaron Hicks hitting his 16th home run of 2018, the most he’s ever hit a single season. It was also his 10th homer in his last 19 games; the only other Yankee switch hitters to hit 10 homers in a span of fewer than 20 games were Mark Teixeira (2009) and Mickey Mantle (many times).

(USA Today)

Gardy Party, All Rise
The Yankees wasted no time in erasing the bad taste from Friday’s miserable loss. Brett Gardner cranked the very first pitch that J.A. Happ threw into the Rogers Centre seats, igniting the Yankees offense en route to a bounceback 8-5 win.

Judge followed Gardner’s shot with another home run, the second time this season that the Yankees opened a game with back-to-back homers (also on May 26 versus the Angels). The only other time in franchise they did that twice in one season was 2003.

For Gardner, it was his 14th career lead-off homer, tied with Frankie Crosetti for the sixth-most in franchise history:

Yankees Most Career Lead-off HR
Name HR
Derek Jeter 29
Rickey Henderson 24
Alfonso Soriano 21
Hank Bauer 17
Chuck Knoblauch 15
Brett Gardner 14
Frankie Crosetti 14

Judge’s blast was his 25th home run of the season, the second straight year he’s reached that milestone before the All-Star break. Since the first All-Star Game in 1933, the only other Yankee to hit 25-plus homers prior to the break in consecutive seasons was Roger Maris in 1960-61.

Miguel Andujar, an extra-base hit machine, recorded his 25th double of the season in the top of the ninth. The 23-year-old is the youngest Yankee ever to hit at least 25 doubles and 12 homers before the break (since 1933). The only other Yankees to do it at any age were Robinson Cano (2012), Hideki Matsui (2005), Alfonso Soriano (2002), Mel Hall (1992), Don Mattingly (1986) and Reggie Jackson (1977).

(Getty)

The Blue Jays worked Luis Severino hard from the start, and Severino clearly lacked his best stuff as he gave up three runs on five hits, including two homers, in five innings. Still, he was able to extend his streak of starts with three or fewer runs allowed to 16, the longest such streak by any major-league pitcher in 2018. It’s also the longest streak within a season by any pitcher in franchise history.

Finally, the win snapped their Canadian Curse, as they clinched their first .500 or better season at the Rogers Centre since 2009. The run of eight consecutive losing seasons there (2010-17) was the Yankees longest active drought at any ballpark.

(AP)

Two is enough
The Yankees capped off their trip north of the border with —shocking! — another series win, edging the Blue Jays 2-1 in 10 innings on Sunday. The Yankees are now 5-4 in extras this season, matching their win total from all of last year.

Coupled with their 13-inning victory in Toronto on June 6, this is the second time ever that the Yankees won multiple extra-inning games at the Rogers Centre in a single season. The other time it happened? Yup, 1998.

The Yankees also showed off their ability to win with smallball: their first run was scored on an RBI groundout, and the game-winning RBI single was set up with a hit by pitch (thanks Tyler Clippard!) and sacrifice bunt. They are now 8-10 when not hitting a homer, the same number of homerless wins they had the entire season last year (8-27). #toomanyhomers

Domingo German, who entered the game with the second-highest whiff rate (15.0%) in the AL among pitchers with at least 60 IP, dominated the Blue Jays with his typical swing-and-miss stuff — 16 swinging strikes among his 100 pitches (16%) — and allowed only one run over six strong innings. Twelve of the 16 whiffs came with his two-seam and four-seam fastball, the most he’s gotten with those pitches in a game this season.

Giancarlo Stanton chipped in with his team-leading 89th and 90th hits of the season, including a third-inning single he drilled into left field with an exit velocity of 120.3 mph. It was the fifth base-hit of at least 120 mph by any player since Statcast tracking began in 2015; Stanton has four of the five, and Judge has the other one.

(AP)

Brett Gardner was the hero, lacing an opposite-field single in the 10th to score Tyler Wade. It was his first extra-inning go-ahead hit this season and sixth of his career. That’s tied for the fifth-most by a Yankee outfielder since 1925; the only guys ahead of him are Mickey Mantle (14), Bernie Williams (8), Joe DiMaggio (7) and Charlie Keller (7).