Archive for Analysis
2009 Dominance Factors
Posted by: | CommentsJust before the season started I introduced you a cool new stat for minor league pitchers called Dominance Factor. Patrick Sullivan at Project Prospect developed the stat last May (then tweaked it this January) as a way to see which pitchers were really “dominating” the level they were playing at when you considered their age. It’s based on three factors, all of which the pitcher can control (to varying degrees): strikeouts, walks, and groundballs. The formula is very simple and straight forward:
Dominance Factor, DF = (K% + 0.72*GB% – BB%)+ (Age Level Standard – Actual age)*7
GB% is multiplied by 0.72 because generally speaking, 72% of groundballs turn into outs. The Age Level Standards are basically the average age at a given level, and are 20-yrs old for Low-A, 21 for High-A, 22.5 for Double-A, and 24 for Triple-A. If you want to see an example, click on the first link. The stat doesn’t have any real analysis purposes because of the assumptions used for GB% and age, so it’s best used for reference. It’s still fun to look at, though.
This year’s leader in DF was none other than RAB’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year Manny Banuelos, who checked in at 65.0 DF. That, however, doesn’t even come close to Phil Hughes‘ record of 85.98 DF with Triple-A Scranton in 2007. Mark Melancon was a close second (63.9 DF) because of his exceptional walk and groundball rates, and Zach McAllister (58.6) rounded out the top three. Andrew Brackman checks in at a disappointing 24.1 DF because he was three years old for his level and his walk rate was through the roof. You’ll see that the bottom of the leaderboard is mostly filled with journeyman and low level relievers, organizational arms like that.
The full table of Dominance Factors is huge, so it’s hidden after the jump. Players highlighted in yellow are no longer with the organization, and players highlighted in blue are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December unless added to the 40-man roster. I think I got everyone, but it’s tough to figure out when some of the international guys actually signed, so someone like Hector Noesi might actually be R5 eligible even though I didn’t highlight him. My bad if so.
All of the K, BB, and GB data come from the wonderful site First Inning, and I rounded the player’s age to whatever age they spent the majority of the year at. It’s also broken down by level, so you’ll see a DF for Pat Venditte with Low-A Charleston and then another for High-A Tampa. I could have combined them, but eh, I figured seeing them separate was more useful. I also made it a minimum of 25 IP at a level, so Ian Kennedy and his 22.2 IP at Triple-A Scranton didn’t make the cut. If you’re interested, here’s the DF’s for 2008, 2007, and 2006.
Remember to click the table for a larger view, but I don’t think you’ll have any trouble reading this one.
Is Joe Mauer really the MVP, and are saberists really arrogant turds?
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s true: near everyone who pays close attention to the numbers believes Joe Mauer should be the AL MVP. He not only leads the AL in OPS, but he’s doing it as a catcher, the most difficult defensive position. He’s outperforming first basemen and outfielders, players expected to put up big numbers. Where other teams have catchers with OPSs in the mid-.700s, Mauer is at 1.051. It’s an enormous advantage at a position where defense reigns.
This is, simplified, why those who pay attention to the numbers think Mauer is the MVP. It’s not just that he leads the league in OPS, but that he’s doing it from a position where no one else even comes close — of catchers with over 350 at bats, Jorge Posada is closes with a .881 OPS. Yes, Kevin Youkilis and Miguel Cabrera have pretty numbers, but they come from first base (and a little third for Youk), positions where big production is more expected. Derek Jeter plays a tough defensive position, and is playing it sell this year, and has a case. But his numbers all fall well short of Mauer’s.
Ken Rosenthal recognizes all this, and he does agree that Mauer should be MVP. He’s just sick of sabermetricians shouting down dissenters. This is baseball after all, and what is baseball without a good debate? It’s a good point, but Rosenthal goes astray at many points. Most notably:
Here’s the problem: Sabermetricians were ignored for so long, they had to shout to be heard. Now they are getting heard — properly heard in the highest levels of baseball media and front offices. But some continue to shout, dismissing those who disagree as ignorant dolts.
I’m sorry, but the last part of that sentence will not stand. Since the inception of blogs through even today, mainstream media writers have dismissed bloggers as idiots who live in their mothers’ basements. This isn’t just a narrative: see for yourself. Bloggers have been and still are dismissed by elitist writers who think that because some editor gave them a job that their word is more definitive. Clearly, this does not apply to all mainstream writers. It doesn’t even apply to the majority of them. But if Rosenthal is going to charge that bloggers dismiss those who agree as ignorant dolts, he should acknowledge the other side of the coin.
(Need I even go further than Rosenthal’s colleague Dayn Perry shouting down the Teixeira acolytes?)
To take care of the shouting part, we turn to Tom Tango, who is a sabermetrician.
I don’t dismiss those who disagree. I dismiss those who don’t provide evidence for their claims, or refuse to be educated. Refusing to be educated does make you, by definition, ignorant. It’s one thing to have a conversation with someone who is ignorant, it’s another to have a conversation with someone who continues to remain ignorant. One gives me hope, the other is hopeless.
If I shout, it’s to be heard over the gasbaggery of ignoramuses, so that those who want to learn, or want to have a reasonable conversation, can do so. The problem is not those who shout; the problem is those who are on the dance floor who refuse to dance with any rhythm, and don’t even try to. Worse still, they think they have rhythm.
What’s even better, Tango went ahead and made a decent case against Mauer for MVP. “Mauer is not a million miles ahead. Depending what kind of glasses you wear, he’s somewhere between two laps ahead of all the nonpitchers in this marathon to barely ahead, and either tied with Greinke or at least a lap behind Greinke.” There is a sabermetrician, not shouting, not dismissing. In fact, he’s making a case against the very issue about which Rosenthal complains.
I get Kenny’s point. He wants to keep debate alive and robust. Good. So do we. Otherwise, we wouldn’t write this site. He could have made his case a bit better, though. The way he puts it, saberists like Tom Tango are just a bunch of immutable gasbags. Clearly, that is not the case, as the man himself demonstrated. So let’s put aside the name calling and pettiness and talk about what happens on the field. That’s the only thing that matters, anyway.
Assessing Brackman’s Season, Part III
Posted by: | CommentsTwo years ago, the Yankees selected righthander Andrew Brackman with their first round pick, knowing full well that he might need elbow surgery at some point, perhaps as soon as that summer. Brackman showed tremendous raw stuff and considerable potential as an amateur, the reasons why he was ranked so high in pre-draft rankings (Keith Law had him as the third best prospect in the draft class). The Yankees were willing to gamble and wait on his talent, especially with a pick so late in first round.
As expected, Brackman underwent Tommy John surgery soon after signing a Major League deal worth $3.35 million guaranteed with incentives that could push the total value of the contract to $13 million. At the time, it was potentially the richest contract in draft history. Brackman spent all of 2008 rehabbing but returned to action in the now defunct Hawaii Winter Baseball League last fall where he was ranked the number two prospect by Baseball America (subs. req’d).
Brackman’s long awaited full season debut didn’t go as smoothly as planned this year. It featured a few ups but considerably more downs. His overall season line — 106.2 IP, 106 H, 79 R, 76 BB, 103 K — isn’t pretty, and his 26 wild pitches were second most in all of minor league baseball. The way I see it Brackman’s season can be broken down into three distinct periods, which I’ll arbitrarily call Good Brackman, Bad Brackman, and Reliever Brackman.
Over the past two days we’ve looked at Good Brackman and Bad Brackman, so now it’s time to wrap this all up with Reliever Brackman.
* * *
After things took a turn for the worst, Brackman was moved to the bullpen in late July. As scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in his interview with Mike Ashmore, “sometimes you have to deviate from the plan a little bit and take a step backwards to go forwards.” The move was also made in part to control his innings, but more importantly something had to be done to at least limit the damage.
Surprisingly, Brackman was actually pretty decent out of the bullpen, putting up a 2.57 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. His peripherals were encouraging as well:
10.29 K/9
5.14 BB/9
2.00 K/BB
7.29 H/9
0.00 HR/9
.304 BABIP
2.63 FIP
He did allow at least one run in five of his first six relief appearances, but his final four outings were nothing short of stellar. In ten innings Brackman allowed just six hits and struck out nine, but more importantly he didn’t walk anyone, didn’t hit anyone, and didn’t chuck any wild pitches. Oh sure, it definitely might just be a small sample size fluke thing, but if nothing else it at least gives him a reason to keep his chin up after such a trying year, and the Yankees a reason to be cautiously optimistic.
I don’t have any information on how Brackman’s stuff looked as a reliever, and I’m very curious to see if anything played up. If you stumble across any info, please, send it my way. Baseball America’s year-end Prospect Hot Sheet just notes that he showed “an average fastball that often dipped into the 80s, a diminished curveball and well below-average control” throughout the year, which echoes what we’ve heard the last two days.
As a whole, this was unquestionably a disappointing year for the big guy. Instead of progress there was regress, and the only signs of encouragement came from four meaningless relief appearances at the end of the year when Charleston was already out of the playoff race. However, despite all that, it would be incorrect to call it a lost year of development. Adversity isn’t the worst thing in the world for young players, as people learn more from the bad times than they do the good. Whether or not Brackman can put whatever lessons he’s learned into practice remains to be seen.
If there’s one thing to accept as a no strings attached positive, it’s that he stayed healthy all year and made every appearance asked of him without incident, crossing the 100 IP mark for the first time in his life. Brackman can head home for the winter knowing the elbow held up all season and that he at last finished with on a little bit of a high note. Durability is one less question he’ll have to answer in 2010.
As easy as it would be to write Brackman off after the brutal year he just went through, it’s definitely too early to call it quits on the kid. Depending on how his Spring Training goes, he could be assigned to High-A Tampa to start 2010, although heading back to Charleston is a distinct possibility. I assume the team will have Brackman give it another go as a starter, as they should because they don’t have anything to lose by letting him pitch out of the rotation in the lower levels next year or even the year after.
Of course, if his stuff and control doesn’t come back soon, it’s not going to matter where he’s pitching.
Assessing Brackman’s Season, Part II
Posted by: | CommentsTwo years ago, the Yankees selected righthander Andrew Brackman with their first round pick, knowing full well that he might need elbow surgery at some point, perhaps as soon as that summer. Brackman showed tremendous raw stuff and considerable potential as an amateur, the reasons why he was ranked so high in pre-draft rankings (Keith Law had him as the third best prospect in the draft class). The Yankees were willing to gamble and wait on his talent, especially with a pick so late in first round.
As expected, Brackman underwent Tommy John surgery soon after signing a Major League deal worth $3.35 million guaranteed with incentives that could push the total value of the contract to $13 million. At the time, it was potentially the richest contract in draft history. Brackman spent all of 2008 rehabbing but returned to action in the now defunct Hawaii Winter Baseball League last fall where he was ranked the number two prospect by Baseball America (subs. req’d).
Brackman’s long awaited full season debut didn’t go as smoothly as planned this year. It featured a few ups but considerably more downs. His overall season line — 106.2 IP, 106 H, 79 R, 76 BB, 103 K — isn’t pretty, and his 26 wild pitches were second most in all of minor league baseball. The way I see it Brackman’s season can be broken down into three distinct periods, which I’ll arbitrarily call Good Brackman, Bad Brackman, and Reliever Brackman.
We already took a look at Good Brackman yesterday, and now we’re going to examine Bad Brackman.
* * *
After nine good starts with the River Dogs, Brackman’s season started the unravel at the end of May with the infamous ten walk game. The next nine starts following that one were better, relatively speaking, but still atrocious by any measure. Even though his strikeout rate remained strong at 8.49 K/9, the rest of his peripherals were downright ugly:
11.83 BB/9
0.72 K/BB
10.80 H/9
1.29 HR/9
.343 BABIP
7.11 FIP
He managed to throw just 35 innings in those ten starts, and as ugly as the numbers are, Brackman’s stuff may have been worse. Dave Cameron of USS Mariner and FanGraphs fame took in the big guy’s July 23rd start at Greensboro, and let’s just say he came away less than impressed:
In the first inning, he sat 90-92 with the fastball, going to the outside corner against RHBs. The pitch had some decent movement down and away, and profiled as the kind of pitch that could get groundballs. His command was poor, as expected, walking the leadoff batter, but even once he got ahead in the count, it became obvious he didn’t have anything else besides the fastball. On an 0-2 count, he threw a 73 MPH curve with no tilt that bounced about a foot in front of the plate. He came back with another weak 72 MPH curve that just hung in the strike zone begging to be hit. He went back to the fastball and got through the first inning, but wasn’t impressive.
Then came the second inning. The fastball dipped down to 88, but he still popped 92 occasionally, but the breaking ball was just awful, and the Greensboro hitters were sitting on his fastball. His command went in the toilet, and the movement on his fastball ran right into LHBs wheelhouse, giving them a chance to take batting practice. Kyle Skipworth, who isn’t exactly a good hitting prospect, launched one of Brackman’s fastballs deep into the night sky. Every left-hander just pounded the fastball, and the curve simply wasn’t good enough to keep hitters off balance.
I respect Cameron’s opinion, but he’s also the same guy that said he wouldn’t trade Jeremy Reed for Jonathan Papelbon or Jon Lester, so maybe we should take his report with a grain of salt. Regardless, the key point is that not only had Brackman shown no improvement with his stuff, but his command and control had completely deteriorated.
He walked four or more batters in a game seven times in that stretch, but amazingly went walk-free in one game. It was just a tease though, because Brackman issued eight free passes in his next 7.1 IP. As if the walks weren’t troubling enough, he also uncorked 16 (!) wild pitches and plunked five batters in those 35 innings. Control always takes some time to come back after Tommy John surgery, but that’s completely unacceptable at any level.
Developing comfortable and repeatable mechanics are always an issue with tall pitchers (Randy Johnson walked 222 batters in 259.2 IP between Single- and Double-A), but such extreme control problems indicate there was more than just inconsistent mechanics at work here. I have no idea what’s behind all this, but I imagine it’s a combination of things rather than just one big core problem. I’m sure his confidence is suffering a bit, which can’t be helping things.
If there’s one positive thing we can take from this horrible stretch of “pitching,” it’s that Brackman made every start. It’s not much, but it’s important because you can’t work on anything if you aren’t healthy enough to take the mound. Brackman had one start skipped by design during this stretch, but otherwise he took the ball every five days without incident. However, with little to no progress being made, the organization couldn’t just keep letting Brackman embarrass himself by running him out there every five days.
Tomorrow, in the final installment of this mini-series, we’ll take a look at Reliever Brackman.
Assessing Brackman’s Season, Part I
Posted by: | CommentsTwo years ago, the Yankees selected righthander Andrew Brackman with their first round pick, knowing full well that he might need elbow surgery at some point, perhaps as soon as that summer. Brackman showed tremendous raw stuff and considerable potential as an amateur, the reasons why he was ranked so high in pre-draft rankings (Keith Law had him as the third best prospect in the draft class). The Yankees were willing to gamble and wait on his talent, especially with a pick so late in first round.
As expected, Brackman underwent Tommy John surgery soon after signing a Major League deal worth $3.35 million guaranteed with incentives that could push the total value of the contract to $13 million. At the time, it was potentially the richest contract in draft history. Brackman spent all of 2008 rehabbing but returned to action in the now defunct Hawaii Winter Baseball League last fall where he was ranked the number two prospect by Baseball America (subs. req’d).
Brackman’s long awaited full season debut didn’t go as smoothly as planned this year. It featured a few ups but considerably more downs. His overall season line — 106.2 IP, 106 H, 79 R, 76 BB, 103 K — isn’t pretty, and his 26 wild pitches were second most in all of minor league baseball. The way I see it Brackman’s season can be broken down into three distinct periods, which I’ll arbitrarily call Good Brackman, Bad Brackman, and Reliever Brackman.
Over the next three days, we’ll take a look at each version of Brackman in depth, starting today with Good Brackman.
* * *
Coming into the season, expectations for Brackman were high, but cautiously high, if that makes sense. As always, the most important thing was staying healthy and gaining experience. After that, we wanted to see his stuff return to what it was in college and for him to make progress with his command and mechanics. As ugly as the stat line ended up at the end of the season, Brackman actually started out pretty well, believe it or not.
The usually aggressive Yankees took the conservative approach with Brackman, sending him to Low-A Charleston instead of High-A Tampa. In his first nine starts, he threw 50.2 innings, pitching to a 3.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. His peripherals were strong as well:
8.17 K/9
3.20 BB/9
2.56 K/BB
8.35 H/9
0.53 HR/9
.297 BABIP
3.22 FIP
By no means was it a blow-you-away type of performance, but it was encouraging to see Brackman take the ball every five days coming off Tommy John Surgery and miss so many bats. Even though he was older than the competition, his lack of pitching experience somewhat leveled the playing field.
He allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his first nine starts and walked no more than three batters in any of those nine starts. According to minorleaguesplits.com, Brackman was generating close to 60 percent groundballs during these starts. This was a promising figured because tall pitchers tend to be extreme flyball guys since they have trouble getting the ball down in the zone. Sure, he was a bit homer-prone in the early going, but it was too small of a sample size to consider it a trend just yet.
While the performance was solid, Brackman’s stuff wasn’t quite up to snuff in the early going. According to this BA report (subs. req’d again, sorry), Brackman’s once powerful fastball was topping out in low-90’s.
“I’m not back to being myself yet,” said Brackman, who had the surgery in September 2007 and spent all last summer rehabbing his arm. “They say Tommy John takes a while for you to come back from and your velocity is the last thing to come back. I’m waiting on that. I try every day to do what I can to build arm strength. It’s a whole lot easier to pitch when you have your velocity, and I’m so used to pitching with that.”
Brackman admitted to being impatient and frustrated but did note that without his usual blow-you-away fastball he was forced to work on his secondary pitches, particularly his changeup. Of course the real concern isn’t that Brackman’s stuff wasn’t fully back post-TJ; it’s that his stuff showed signs of decline even before the 2007 draft. Here’s part of a KLaw report from two months before he was drafted:
Brackman pitched Saturday at Boston College, and wasn’t quite the same guy. He was throwing across his body, almost as if someone told him he had to work on getting the ball to his glove side (or as if he decided it himself), resulting in erratic command in addition to the long-term injury concerns that come with those mechanics. His breaking ball was also worse than it was last summer, with a softer, early break. His command of both pitches was way off.
He’s still a superb athlete with a plus fastball (88-95 this week), and it’s too easy to let the one look this weekend erase what he showed he could do last summer.
So the question goes from “Will his stuff come back after TJ?” to “Is TJ why his stuff is down in the first place?” While the results were encouraging, the reports on his stuff were not. After adjusting his delivery in Hawaii under the guidance of pitching coach Jeff Ware (also his pitching coach with Charleston) and struggling with it, Brackman went back to his original mechanics. How much that factors into his declining stuff, we may never know.
The numbers were pretty good in the early going, not quite what you’d expect out of such a highly touted draft pick, but certainly nothing that would trigger any red flags from someone on the outside looking in. That goes double for a guy coming off major arm surgery. However, the first nine starts of Brackman’s season show exactly why stats, especially those in the low minors, are just a tiny piece of the equation. The scouting report had changed in a bad way, and the worst was yet to come.
Tomorrow we’ll take a look at Bad Brackman — a ten-start stretch in the middle of the season when not just the wheels but the axles and drive train came completely off the bus.
Made from the best Stuff on Earth
Posted by: | CommentsStuff. We hear about it all the time. This pitcher has great stuff. But does anyone really know what that means? In an effort to quantify stuff, Jeremy Greenhouse at The Baseball Analysts used pitch f/x data to generate a discussion on Stuff. He employed velocity, horizontal pitch movement and vertical movement to figure out which pitchers are nasty, and our man with the pie A.J. Burnett emerged as the pitcher with the best stuff in the Majors.
There is, of course, a second part to this equation. Do the pitchers with the best stuff make the most of it? As we’ve seen from Burnett this year, the answer is obviously no. Burnett doesn’t crack the list of pitchers with the best stuff who have been tops at run prevention over the last three years. Not surprisingly, that honor belongs to Roy Halladay in the AL and Brandon Webb in the NL.
Pondering Penny, again
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday afternoon, following the Yanks’ loss to the Rangers, Mike reported that the Yankees were interested in Brad Penny. While early reports indicated that Penny may have promised the Red Sox that he would not sign with an AL East competitor following his release, George A. King III disputed those stories. Penny is free to go where he wants.
While the Yankees could use Penny to fill a fifth starter spot currently split between Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre — or the fourth starter spot with Joba in limbo — the Yankees aren’t the only team interested in Penny. According to MLB.com, the Rockies, Marlins, Rays, White Sox and Rangers are all considering Penny as well. It must feel good to be wanted.
For their part, the Yankees offered up some qualified “He’s better than Sergio Mitre” praise for Penny. “He’s got good stuff,” Johnny Damon said to King. “His secondary stuff might need a little tweak but his fastball was electric, it cut and he hit his spots with it. Bring him here, why not? I love the way the guy competes.”
Yankee fans, on the other hand, have seen Penny twice this year, and most of us probably aren’t that impressed. On July 11, Penny threw probably his best start of the season and beat the Yanks. He tossed six shut-out innings and allowed six hits and a walk while striking out five. On August 21, in his last Boston start, Penny gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk in four innings of work. This effort capped a five-start run in which Penny went 1-4 with a 9.11 ERA. Opponents are hitting .333/.397/.595 off Penny during this stretch.
So why are the Yankees interested? Well, as I mentioned, Penny would be better than Mitre. This stretch notwithstanding, Penny’s numbers — 7-8, 5.61 ERA — aren’t as bad as they seem. Penny’s BABIP is an absurd .327 even though his line drive and HR rates are in line with league averages. Why the high BABIP? Well, the Red Sox’s defense is terrible. Their team UZR is -22.2, worse only than the Royals, Orioles, Twins and Indians in the AL. Combine that defense with a little bit of bad luck, and you get an underperforming pitcher.
Right now, Penny’s FIP stands 4.58 with an xFIP of 4.96. That’s tolerable, and Penny won’t give the Yankees innings — he hasn’t pitched out of the 6th yet this year — he’ll give them some back-end stability as the team looks to get their rotation in line for October. If the Yanks sign Penny to the league minimum, they won’t expect much, but they don’t need much. Six innings of 4.58 ERA baseball would be a-OK with me.
A look at the last 35 games
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Junichi Tazawa — Japanese for Brad Penny — and the Red Sox lost to the White Sox tonight, the Yankees moved one game closer to wrapping up the AL East. With 35 games left this year, their magic number is 30. While that six-game lead can sometimes seem small and sometimes seem large, if the Yanks go 18-17 the rest of the way, the Red Sox would have to go 24-11 just to tie in the East. I doubt this Sox club can play .686 baseball for five weeks.
Anyway, with the stretch drive upon us, the Yankees have a few goals ahead of them: They have to rest their regulars to make sure that everyone is as fresh as possible for an October run. They have to get their pitching in order. And they have to accomplish these two goals while winning the division in a way that inspires confidence among the fans and, more importantly, the players. For how well the Yanks have played lately, backing into the post-season just won’t cut it.
As the White Sox come to town for the last home set in August, let’s take a look ahead at the Yanks’ schedule. In September, they face some very good teams and some very bad teams. In between is an annoying and potentially dangerous trip to Seattle and Anaheim.
I miss the days of baseball when September used to be reserved for division rivals only. A West Coast trip in the second-to-last week of the season should be outlawed. But such are the way of things. The Yanks could very well be playing in Anaheim come the first week in October, and the team should be prepared for the long flight.
Take a look at how the Yanks’ remaining opponents break down by record:
| Team | Winning Percentage | Games |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox | .500 | 3 |
| Orioles | .406 | 6 |
| Blue Jays | .464 | 6 |
| Rays | .548 | 7 |
| Angels | .600 | 4 |
| Mariners | .520 | 3 |
| Red Sox | .575 | 3 |
| Royals | .381 | 3 |
| Total | At or above .500 | 20 |
| Total | Below .500 | 15 |
As you can see, the Yanks play most of their games against teams at or above .500. Of course, had the White Sox lost on Thursday, these numbers would be flipped, but luckily for us, they did not. If the Yanks play just .500 ball against their .500 or better opponents, they would be 10-10 with 15 games left against bad teams. If they go 10-5 against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals — not an unreasonable assumption — they would finish the season 20-15, good for 99 wins. Technically, Boston could catch them, but it isn’t likely. Plus, I believe the Yanks can play better than .500 ball against their so-called “good” opponents. A series win against Chicago would get this stretch off on the right foot.
The key team in all of this is Tampa Bay. Recently ranked as the game’s best team in Beyond the Box Score’s SABR-minded power rankings, Tampa has given the Yanks trouble recently. They’re still clinging to the hopes of a playoff spot, and their season is hanging in the balance. These two teams play four at home starting with a Labor Day day-night double header, and Tampa will try to make things interesting.
In the end, I hate to count my AL East chickens before they hatch. I’ve seen far too many Yankee clubs sleepwalk their ways through September, and I won’t relax until the champagne is flowing. But I’d expect that party soon enough. Maybe it’ll come in Anaheim, but maybe it will happen at the best moment of September: with the Red Sox in town and on the field. I can dream, right?
Is Joba throwing too many sliders?
Posted by: | CommentsAs Joba Chamberlain labored through yet another start last night, there was plenty of talk that the kid was relying way too much on his slidepiece, particularly whenever he needed to make a pitch. If he runs into a 3-2 count these days, you can bet the house on him throwing a slider down and away from righties or down and in to lefties. And if the catcher doesn’t call for it, Joba will shake him off until he gets it. The pitch is nasty enough that he can still get away with it despite the obvious pattern at times, but better hitters (like the ones the Rangers trot out there day after day) will lay off it.
It’s seems like the more that Joba struggles, the more he goes to his slider. I assume it’s his comfort pitch, the one he feels he can throw for strikes at anytime. But is he taking it too far? Let’s take a look at Joba’s pitch selection by start this year via the magic of PitchFX. Remember to click to the graph for a larger view.
What you’re looking at is how much Joba threw each pitch in a given start. So, for example, in his first start of the year he threw 65.5% fastballs, 14.9% sliders, 12.6 curves, 3.4% changeups, and 3.4% two seamers. It grabbed the exact values out of my data table, but you can see where they come from on the chart. I didn’t bother to add a trendline for two-seamers because he doesn’t throw it anymore.
Start #8 was the one when he took that liner off his shin and left after just two-thirds of an inning. Starts #18, 19 and 20 are those three great starts Joba made immediately after the All Star Break. As you can see, since those three great starts he’s throwing more sliders each time out, peaking yesterday when he threw sliders with 29 of his 96 pitches, or 30.2%.
All those sliders are coming mostly at the expense of his curveball, but also his heater to a degree. Believe it or not, Joba actually has a really good curve when he does decide to use it, which is far too infrequently right now. Despite all that talk about decreased velocity, Joba is still averaging 92.5 mph with the pitch, which is above average velocity. It’s just 0.1 mph slower than Tim Lincecum’s average fastball, and ahead of noted flamethrowers like Rich Harden and Javy Vazquez. Joba’s fastball is good enough that he can throw it 65-70% of the time and still succeed, particularly when he needs to make a pitch.
Part of the problem is that Joba, like many young pitchers, was rushed up through the minors and didn’t have to deal with any adversity until he got to the big leagues. Hell, the first time we ever saw Joba struggle was the midge game in the 2007 playoffs. Whenever he got in the trouble in the minors, he probably just threw a slider or two and those poor kids couldn’t lay off it. Now he’s finding out that big league hitters aren’t so forgiving.
We expect instant gratification, but this is all part of the growing pains we’ll have to deal with. It’s not fun, it’s frustrating, and it’s enough to make us reconsider how good we think Joba will really become. A pennant race in the AL East is a tough place for a kid to learn to how to pitch, but Joba still needs to do a better job than what he’s been doing.
Dan Brooks’ invaluable PitchFX tool was used for his post
Previewing the Texas series
Posted by: | CommentsAfter a long three-game series up in Boston last weekend to cap a 10-game road trip, the Yanks have six games at home before hitting the road again. These will be match-ups against teams contending for the playoffs. More than that, they’re teams within striking distance, but are still a few games back of the Wild Card and AL Central division races. Since they mean a lot for the opponents, they mean something for the Yankees. First up is the Texas Rangers, who roll into town for three games starting tonight.
Texas enters the series a game and a half back of the Wild Card — and if not for an egregious blunder by Jose Contreras last night, they might have been just a half game back. Each win for the Yanks helps out the Sox, but that’s of no matter right now. The Sox will do what the Sox will do, and the Yankees just have to keep on winning. The further they pull ahead now, the more rest they can afford their regulars heading into the playoffs. If Texas leaves the series down 4.5 to the Sox in the Wild Card, so be it.
Offense vs. Offense
Both the Yanks and the Rangers have powerful offenses, ranking first and second in the league in home runs and slugging percentage. Other than that, though, the Yankees clearly have the superior squad. They lead the league in OBP, where the Rangers rank 12th in the AL. The difference in their respective team batting averages — .280 to .259 — is also stark. In fact, Texas ranks below league average in average and OBP.
The problem with the Rangers is that their offense only works well in the comfy confines of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. There they have a .834 team OPS, with a slash line of .276/.343/.491, all more than respectable numbers for a team overall. Put them on the road, though, and they’re a shell of that team, hitting .240/.295/.417. The good news for them is that Yankee Stadium is a hitter’s park as well. The bad news is that it plays to the team’s weakness.
The Yankees have had so much success in their new digs because of the lefty power they bring to the table. Texas’s left-handed hitters represent a weak point for the team. Against righties their offense posts a line of .246/.306/.426, and against lefties that slumps all the way to .229/.271/.397. They have to be thanking their lucky stars that they avoid CC Sabathia in the final series between the two teams.
As a final note on the Rangers’ road offense, those numbers are actually brought up by good numbers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim (where they hit even better than at home), Minute Maid Park, and Camden Yards. Those are all subject to the small sample size warning, but at all other parks the team is pretty atrocious — including a .749 OPS at Yankee Stadium during the series earlier in the year.
At home, the Yankees are one hell of a team. They post a .276/.361/.494 line as a team, adding up to an insane .855 OPS. That bodes well for them in this series, considering Texas’s offensive deficiencies on the road. The difference between the two teams is that the Yankees actually hit well on the road: .284/.355/.466, a .821 OPS.
Pitching vs. pitching
On the offensive side, Texas has had a good team for years. It’s on the pitching end that they always faltered. That’s the difference with this year: they’ve gotten solid performances out of their starters, and have a solid bullpen for the first time in a long time. This is especially impressive because of the team’s home venue. If these guys can pitch in a hitter’s haven, they should be able to handle themselves on the road, right?
Surprisingly, they’re a bit worse in terms of results on the road, though in overall batting lines they’re a bit better. Texas pitchers hold opposing hitters to a .728 OPS — .252/.325/.403 — on the road vs. a .758 OPS at home, though they have a 4.22 ERA on the road against a 4.06 mark at home.
It appears their pitching has been improving as well. As starters they post a team 4.47 ERA in the first half, and so far in the second half have lowered that to 3.82. Ditto their relievers who pitched to a 4.09 ERA in the first half, only to see that improve to 3.24 in the second half. So it appears that pitching is Texas’s strength this year. Go figure.
The bad news for the Texas staff — and you know I’d find some bad news for them — is that when facing batters of the opposite handedness, they’re not quite as good. That’s expected normally, but the splits are a bit pronounced in this case. Against lefties as a RHP, the Rangers have a team .766 OPS, including a .340 OBP. Against righties as a LHP, the Rangers have .835 team OPS. This is not a good tendency against a team like the Yankees, a team which is built for match-ups like this.
With their A lineup in place, as it should be tonight against righty Kevin Millwood, the Yankees will feature three lefties and four switch-hitters, with the only true righties being Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. They can trot out this lineup against Millwood and Thursday’s starter Dustin Nippert and gain a significant platoon advantage. On Wednesday they face lefty Derek Holland. Because Thursday is a day game after a night game, they could opt to rest Jorge Posada on Tuesday, putting Jose Molina in the lineup against a lefty, a favorable matchup for him. Play Hairston for Damon, and that’s four righties, three switch-hitters, and a lefty DH.
Despite the bandbox that is the new Yankee Stadium, the Bombers’ pitchers toss as well, in terms of slash stats, at home as they do on the road: a .748 OPS against at home and a .742 OPS against on the road. There is a difference in the ERA, but it also favors their home park: 4.18 at home vs. 4.58 on the road. So not only are the Yanks hitters comfortable at home, but so are the pitchers.
Pitching Matchups
Tonight: Joba Chamberlain vs. Kevin Millwood
After a relatively disappointing three years to open his Rangers tenure, Kevin Millwood has stepped up this year, leading the Rangers staff with a 3.48 ERA. He was rolling through the season’s first three months, pitching to a 2.64 ERA at the end of June. He’s hit some snags since then, and has allowed 27 runs in 42.2 innings since July 1. This includes an opponent OPS of .810. He’s started against the Yanks once this year, allowing three runs over 5.2 innings back in May.
Joba Chamberlain has been experiencing a hot and cold season in his first as a full-time starter. He burst out of the gates after the All-Star Break, allowing two runs over 21.2 innings in three starts. He then stumbled a bit, allowing 12 runs over his next 16 innings in three starts. He’s has a nice long rest since his last start on August 16.
Tomorrow: Derek Holland vs. Andy Pettitte
Rookie lefty Derek Holland has struggled in his rookie year, especially against the Yankees. In one start and one relief appearance he’s thrown 6.1 innings, allowing eight runs, seven earned and surrendering 13 hits. He moved to the rotation permanently after the All-Star Break, during which time he’s gone 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA. This includes a complete game shutout against the Angels on the road. He’s been pretty good in the two starts following that, so the Yanks shouldn’t count on seeing the same guy they hammered back in May.
Before Friday night’s start, Andy Pettitte had been pitching exceptionally, allowing just five runs, four earned, over 26 innings. He also struck out 28 to just seven walks in that span, an incredibly impressive run for the 37-year-old Pettitte. His rough start exploded on him Friday night, as he couldn’t record an out in the sixth inning. That was on a full week’s rest, so we’ll see how he does on the usual four days this time around.
Thursday: Dustin Nippert vs. A.J. Burnett
If Dustin Nippert’s name sounds familiar, it probably dates back to the 2006-2007 off-season. One of the names discussed in the Randy Johnson trade was Dustin Nippert, but the Yanks eventually ended up taking Ross Ohlendorf. The D’Backs sent him to the Rangers in 2008 when he was out of options. He’s also bounced between the pen and the rotation since joining the major league club on July 7. He’s yet to go more than six innings, though that was enough of an effort to defeat the Sox in their recent series. In the two starts surrounding that, though, he’s given up five runs each time.
We all know the deal with A.J. Burnett. He can dominate, but sometimes he runs into games like last time out against the Sox. He had his stuff, but couldn’t harness it. The good thing about A.J. is that sometimes he doesn’t have his stuff, and he can survive. The league leader in walks could use a bounce-back start after his effort against Boston on Saturday.
