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Zach Britton brought his four-seamer back last year, but is there anything to it?

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(Getty)

Coming into the offseason it was a matter of “when” the Yankees would add bullpen help, not “if.” David Robertson and Zach Britton both became free agents after the season and reports indicated the Yankees wanted to add two relievers to replace them. Makes sense, right?

So far the Yankees have added one reliever. They re-signed Britton last week to a unique contact. Britton and his turbosinker rejoin Dellin Betances and Chad Green as Aroldis Chapman’s primary setup crew. Three different looks there. Betances is just overwhelming. Green gives you straight gas. Britton is a ground ball machine.

Once upon a time Britton was a starting pitcher with a four-pitch mix. He threw four-seam fastballs and the sinker, plus a slider and a changeup. Then he scrapped the slider and went with a curveball. Once he moved into relief, Britton became a sinker/curveball guy. It’s more like SINKER/curveball. Look at this:

Like most guys Britton shelved his third and fourth pitches after moving into the bullpen. In his case, he has a dominant sinker, so he just throws it over and over and over again, with enough curveballs to keep hitters honest. Look at that graph again though. Notice anything? There’s a little bump in four-seamers late in 2018.

Britton, for whatever reason, threw some four-seam fastballs late last season with the Yankees. They were the first four-seamers he’d thrown since 2014. Here, for the sake of having a visual, is one of those four-seam fastballs:

Yep, that is a four-seam fastball, not a diving sinker. The question now is why? Why did Britton start throwing four-seam fastballs for the first time in four years last season? This is what we know:

1. He didn’t use it often. First and foremost, we’re talking about a very small sample size here. Ten four-seam fastballs total. Britton threw 475 pitches as a Yankee last season, postseason included, and ten were four-seamers. That is nothing. They are the first four-seamers Britton threw in four years though. That suggests there was something more to it than randomness.

2. There’s nothing special about the spin. The Yankees love spin rate. In Britton’s case, those ten four-seamers he threw did not show surprising spin. They averaged 2,168 rpm — the top spin rate recorded was 2,349 rpm, but none of the other four-seamers checked it at over 2,227 rpm — which is below the 2,263 rpm league average. It’s not like Britton had this high-spin four-seamer in his back pocket the entire time and the Yankees decided to unleash it. That would’ve been fun.

3. He only used it when behind in the count. This seems notable. Britton threw those ten four-seamers only when he was behind in the count. In get-me-over situations, basically. Here is the four-seamer by count breakdown:

  • 1-0 count: One
  • 2-0 count: Two
  • 2-1 count: One
  • 3-0 count: Three
  • 3-1 count: Two
  • 3-2 count: One

Furthermore, Britton only used the four-seamer in situations where he really needed to make a pitch to get back into the count. That four-seamer in the GIF above? Britton threw it in a 3-0 count leading off the seventh inning in a tie game. The remaining nine four-seamers came with men on base. They were “throw a strike, stupid” situations.

4. He used it mostly against the Red Sox. Coincidence? Maybe! Eight of those ten four-seamers came in three different outings against the Red Sox. Britton threw one four-seamer to Derek Dietrich (the GIF above) and one to Ronny Rodriguez of the Tigers. The other eight were thrown to Red Sox. Hmmm.

There are a few possible explanations here. One, randomness. Baseball is weird sometimes. Two, Britton has faced the Red Sox so many times over the years that he’s looking for ways to change the scouting report and continue getting outs. It’s a game of adjustments, after all. And three, the Yankees and Britton knew they’d have to go through the Red Sox in the ALDS, so they planted some seeds, and gave Red Sox hitters something to think about. Shrugs.

* * *

We can’t make any conclusions based on ten pitches so I am declaring Britton’s four-seam fastball usage a #thingtowatch. We’ll see if he sticks with it. My hunch is he used the four-seamer on days he couldn’t control his sinker. Remember all those walk problems he had following the Achilles surgery? Given the fact he only used the four-seamer when behind in the count, I’m inclined to believe he turned to it only when he wasn’t confident he could throw that moving sinker for a strike.

Perhaps the Yankees and Britton will stick with the four-seamer, just to give him another weapon and keep opposing hitters on their toes. We saw David Robertson throw a two-seamer at times last year and also mix in a few sliders. Veteran pitchers make adjustments and it could be Britton’s four-seamer is his attempt to remain dominant. For now, the sudden four-seam usage is something that happened and is worth monitoring. It’s too early to know whether it’ll make a meaningful difference on the field.

Gary Sanchez is One of Baseball’s Best Catchers

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That Gary, he sure is scary. (Getty)

This past week’s Winter Meetings were a dull affair. The Yankees did bring back J.A. Happ to fill out the rotation and it was reported that the team will meet with Manny Machado in New York in the coming days/weeks, but by far the most interesting Yankee rumor was their (brief) connection to Marlins’ catcher J.T. Realmuto. Originally a tool to coerce the Mets to send Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, the Marlins also tried to manufacture Yankee interest in obtaining Realmuto themselves—a rumor that was never believable because the Yankees already have one of baseball’s best catchers in Gary Sanchez.

Gary is probably the most polarizing Yankee since Alex Rodriguez hung up his cleats three years ago. Fans either love him or hate him, with little room in the middle. He is accused of laziness and complacency and Joe Girardi’s occasionally tense relationship with the Yankee backstop was rumored to be a big reason why the Yankees elected not to bring him back after the surprise success of the 2017 campaign.

Gary’s abysmal 2018 amplified criticism of his defense and hustle, particularly after he failed to appropriately hustle in Tampa Bay in July and after a futile showing in Oakland (a showing in which Luis Severino surely deserves some blame) in September. Coupled with his .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) batting line, it appears at first glance that 2018 proved Gary’s doubters right.

But the problem with narratives like these is that they often obscure the broader context. That is especially true in baseball, a provincial sport in which most fans watch only their own preferred team, over and over—magnifying flaws and frustrations at the expense of other teams’ weaknesses. In other words, it’s important to zoom out and consider the whole league to properly evaluate Gary’s production and value.

When you do so, it becomes clear that Gary Sanchez is baseball’s most powerful catcher. 32 players have at least 750 at-bats with at least 75 percent of their games behind the plate since the beginning of 2016, and Gary is 3rd overall in home runs with 71, trailing only Yasmani Grandal (73) and Salvador Perez (76), both of whom had at least 300 more plate appearances. He has the highest slugging percentage of the group at .516 and the highest OPS by a considerable margin at .849. (The next closest is Wilson Ramos with a .826 OPS.) He is 6th overall in RBI (188), 11th overall in OBP (.333) and walks (110), 13th in batting average (.252) and 14th in doubles (49). Calling Gary Sanchez anything but one of the league’s most dominant offensive catchers is simply dishonest.

It’s also worth mentioning that even his atrocious 2018 had plenty of silver linings—and wasn’t that far off from league average. His 89 wRC+ was right in line with league average production of 91 wRC+ (leaguewide, catchers hit .237/.313/.385 in 2018), and he ranked 6th in home runs with 18. In fact, Baseball Prospectus’ new offensive metric, DRC+, actually ranks Gary as an above-average catcher last year. (As Friend of RAB™ Jarrett Seidler said on Twitter the other day, his season was valued about the same as Realmuto’s career average.) There is a convincing case to be made that Gary ran into considerable bad luck with balls he hit hard last year and it’s also important to consider that he may have been hobbled by injuries, even when playing.

But most criticism of Gary is based on his futility at blocking balls, which are both obvious to fans watching and often ugly to watch. Gary leads the league in passed balls by a wide margin, and that alone is enough for some fans. But passed balls are not the only defensive responsibility of catchers—they also throw runners out, execute analytical gameplans and frame pitches. And the data and anecdotes show that in every one of those categories, Gary Sanchez excels. Coupled with his dominant offense, the runs that Gary allows on passed balls only scratch the surface of his run-production (and yes, even his run prevention).

But despite all of this, Gary will be the center of controversy again in 2019. That will be true even if he meets (or exceeds!) his current 2019 Steamer projection of .245/.322/.482 (116 wRC+), which would again rank him as one of baseball’s dominant catchers. Some players just attract controversy—though it is worth noting that there are implicit reasons why—and he is one of them. That’s not likely to change.

But as we all cheer on the Yankees next year, remember to tune out the noise around the Yankee backstop, because the data is clear: Gary Sanchez is one of baseball’s very best catchers, and the Yankees are lucky to have him.

Laying out the Yankees’ payroll situation for 2019

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

No later than one week from yesterday, the 2018 World Series will end and the 2018-19 offseason will begin. The Yankees have more heavy lifting to do this winter than I think they would like. Blame injuries (Didi Gregorius, Jordan Montgomery) and poor performance (Sonny Gray). The rotation will be a “focus point.” Don’t sleep on the infield and even the bullpen too.

We don’t know how much the Yankees will spend this winter and we don’t know their payroll limit for next season. The Yankees reset their luxury tax rate this season and Brian Cashman indicated he has to seek approval from Hal Steinbrenner to exceed the luxury tax threshold next year. We know the Yankees can support a $240M payroll. They did it just last year. The franchise could almost certainly support a payroll much higher than that. They choose not to. C’est la vie.

Since the Yankees are counting pennies these days, I figured I’d be good to lay out the payroll situation for this offseason and next season. The Yankees operate in the world of the luxury tax. They’re more concerned with luxury tax hits than actual salary, so this is an estimate of the luxury tax payroll. Here’s what the Yankees have on the books for next season:

  • Masahiro Tanaka: $22.14M
  • Giancarlo Stanton: $22M
  • Jacoby Ellsbury: $21.86M
  • Aroldis Chapman: $17.2M
  • Arbitration-Eligibles: $45.1M (projected)
  • Pre-Arbitration-Eligibles: $13M (estimated)
  • Miscellaneous: $15M (estimated)

That all adds up $156.3M and that, in theory, covers the entire 40-man roster. In reality, it doesn’t even cover the 25-man roster because the Yankees aren’t going to plug three kids making the minimum behind Tanaka and Luis Severino in the rotation. I mean, they could, but I’d bet against it. The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year, so, based on this, the Yankees have $49.7M to spend this winter. That’s a lot! Let’s talk out the payroll.

1. Wait, only four guaranteed contracts? Really? Really. I was shocked. The Yankees shed Brett Gardner ($13M), David Robertson ($11.5M), CC Sabathia ($10M), J.A Happ ($4.32M) Neil Walker ($4M), Lance Lynn ($2.03M), and Andrew McCutchen ($1.26M) this offseason. They’re all free agents. Tanaka, Stanton, Ellsbury, and Chapman are the only remaining guaranteed contracts on the books. Pretty wild. That’ll of course change once the Yankees start signing free agents and making trades. Those guys becoming free agents have to be replaced.

2. What about Gardner’s option? Yeah, don’t forget about this. Gardner’s contract includes a $12.5M club option with a $2M buyout for next season. It’s a $10.5M decision. I really have no idea what the Yankees will do. Declining it seems like an easy decision given his second half — even if the Yankees want to bring Gardner back, they’d be able to do so at a lower salary than the option, right? — but the Yankees love love love Gardner. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them pick it up, honestly.

Anyway, as far as the luxury tax goes, the Yankees have already been taxed on the $2M buyout. It is guaranteed money and it was lumped into the average average value of Gardner’s contract these last few years. Declining the option has no luxury tax impact next year. The $2M has be paid to Gardner, but it doesn’t get charged to next season (or this season). It’s already been taxed. Here’s what the Collective Bargaining Agreement says about the option being exercised:

Article XXIII(E)(5)(b)(ii): Potential Adjustment to Payroll
Notwithstanding subparagraph (b)(i) above, if the Player ultimately does not receive the Option Buyout, then for the Contract Year covered by that option, no portion of the Buyout shall be included in any Club’s final Actual Club Payroll. In addition, any Club whose final Actual Club Payroll in a previous Contract Year had included that Buyout (or a portion thereof) will receive a deduction (in the full amount of the Buyout included in previous Contract Years) in its final Actual Club Payroll in the Contract Year covered by that option.

In English, that means Gardner’s luxury tax hit for next season would be $10.5M should the Yankees pick up the option. They get to subtract out the $2M buyout from the $12.5M salary because they’ve already been taxed on it. Got it? Good. I’m leaving Gardner out of the 2019 payroll estimate right now because he’s technically not under contract for next season.

3. What about Sonny Gray? He’s a goner. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any more clear at his end-of-season press conference. Gray will get traded this winter, he’ll go somewhere else and pitch well, and the Yankees won’t care one bit. The organization’s frustration with Sonny was almost palpable this year. Cashman, Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild … they’re all over Gray. They’ll trade him this winter and won’t look back.

MLBTR projects a $9.1M salary for Gray next season and that is included into the estimate above because, well, he’s on the roster. He hasn’t been traded yet. Once the Yankees trade Sonny, we’ll circle back and adjust our 2019 payroll estimate. There’s a pretty good chance the Yankees will take back salary in a Gray trade (it might even be a payroll neutral trade) so shedding that $9.1M might not be as cut-and-dried as it may seem.

4. Where’d you get $13M for pre-arb players? I based it on this year’s payroll. According to our math, the Yankees spent $8,889,531.81 on pre-arbitration players and $3,904,834.64 on miscellaneous players (Shane Robinson, David Hale, etc.) this year. I added those two numbers together and rounded up. See how easy that is?

In all seriousness, I’m comfortable assuming next season’s pre-arbitration players will cost a similar amount as this year’s. The league minimum doesn’t increase much ($545,000 to $555,000) and the Yankees had a ton of injury call-ups throughout the year. That last part is important. This estimate includes minor league salaries and injury call-ups and September call-ups and all that. We don’t have to set aside anything for that. To use my favorite Boone-ism, it’s all baked into the cake.

5. What are those miscellaneous costs? The Yankees paid $6M to players no longer on the Yankees this past season. They paid $5.5M of Brian McCann’s salary and they paid half the $1M bonus Chase Headley received when he was traded. That $6M is off the books now. At the moment, the Yankees do not owe any money to players on other teams.

That $15M estimate for miscellaneous expenses is tied up in two things: Stanton’s award bonuses and benefits. Every club chips in toward player benefits and this year that amount was $14,0444,600. That counts against the luxury tax and the number increases a little each season. Stanton has $325,000 in potential bonuses in his contract and those also count against the luxury tax payroll. Add the bonuses with the increased benefits expenditure and you get $15M or so.

* * *

Based on all that above, the Yankees have about $50M to spend this winter before hitting the $206M luxury tax threshold next season. It could be more depending on the Gray trade and it could be less depending on Gardner’s option. Hal could always approve a higher payroll as well and I hope he does because there are some premium free agents out there. The Yankees have money and the window ain’t getting any more open. If they’re not going to exceed the luxury tax threshold now to sign some top free agents, when will they?

Yankeemetrics: It is high, it is far, it is … see ya 2018

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I want to thank everyone for being such great followers, fans and readers during this unforgettable record-breaking season. Hope you enjoyed all the smart stats, #FunFacts, Obscure Yankeemetrics and other interesting numbers. Let’s Go Yankees.

(Getty)

It’s Just Not Happ-ening
In the first-ever Division Series matchup between 100-win teams, the 108-win Red Sox took the series opener, 5-4.

It was another frustrating and winnable game for the Yankees, who struck out 13 times and left 10 men on base in the one-run loss. This was the ninth time in franchise history the Yankees lost a nine-inning postseason game by a run while stranding at least 10 baserunners — and the first time ever they also struck out more than 10 times in the game.

J.A. Happ, who had been so brilliant against Boston this season (1.99 ERA in four starts) and during his entire career (2.98 ERA in 21 games), was pounded early and pulled in the third inning without recording an out, getting charged with five runs on four hits. He is the first Yankee starter in the postseason to allow at least five runs and while pitching no more than two innings since A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of the 2009 World Series against the Phillies. Before Happ, no other pitcher in franchise history had done that in the opening game of a playoff series.

The Yankee chipped away at their early 5-0 deficit but their rally fell just short as Aaron Judge’s solo homer to lead off the ninth inning was followed by three straight strikeouts to end the game. The home run was a significant one for Judge, his sixth in 15 career postseason games. The only Yankee to hit more dingers in their first 15 playoff games was Bernie Williams (7).

Giancarlo Stanton was part of the strikeout parade in the ninth inning, and finished with four whiffs in the game. A Stantonian #NotFunFact to chew on: He is the only cleanup hitter in franchise history to strike out four or more times in a postseason game.

(AP)

The Kracken Erupts
The Yankees rebounded from Game 1’s bitter loss with a fired-up, fist-pumping win on Saturday night to even the series at 1-1.

They probably couldn’t have been in a better situational spot to steal a game at Fenway, facing David Price, a perennial Yankees punching bag with a historically terrible postseason resume. And both those narratives played out perfectly for the Yankees. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both crushed home runs while Andrew McCutchen chipped in with a booming RBI single, before Price got the hook and was booed off the mound in the second inning. The final damage for Mr. Price: 1 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 homers, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

Price has now made 10 starts in the postseason and his team has lost all 10 of them. That is the longest postseason streak of team games lost in a player’s starts in MLB history.

Okay, back to the Bombers. Judge’s first-inning solo homer was his third in three games this postseason. He is the second Yankee to go deep in each of the team’s first three games to start a postseason, along with Hank Bauer in the 1958 World Series. And he also joined Bernie Williams (2001, 1996), Reggie Jackson (1977) and Bauer as the only Yankee outfielders to homer in three postseason games in a row.

(New York Times)

Sanchez’s dinger off Price was probably the least shocking part of Saturday’s game. His brief history against the lefty speaks for itself:

  • 18 plate appearances
  • 7 hits
  • 6 home runs
  • 4 walks

But Price wasn’t the only Red Sox pitcher that got schooled by Sanchez on Saturday. He pulverized an Eduardo Rodriguez fastball literally out of the ballpark. With a projected distance of 479 feet, it is the longest hit at Fenway since Statcast tracking began in 2015 and the second-longest hit in the postseason at any park over the last four years.

With his two homers, he entered into some purdy good company. He and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) are the only Yankee catchers with a multi-homer game in the playoffs. And, at the age of 25 years and 308 days, he is the youngest catcher to homer twice in a game in MLB postseason history.

Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a couple bad starts to the end the season with another postseason gem, giving up one run — via the #obligatoryhomer — in five innings. He now owns a 1.50 playoff ERA, the fifth-lowest by any pitcher with at least five playoff starts.

Lowest Postseason ERA (min. 5 Starts)
ERA Games
Sandy Koufax 0.95 8
Christy Mathewson 0.97 11
Eddie Plank 1.32 7
Bill Hallahan 1.36 7
Masahiro Tanaka 1.50 5

Nightmare on River Avenue
There really are no words that can capture the utter humiliation, indescribable embarrassment and overwhelming atrocity that was Game 3 in the Bronx on Monday night. Mike did an excellent job summing up the terrible managerial mistakes from the 16-1 loss, I’ll just present here the cold hard ugly facts.

  • 15-run loss is the largest margin of defeat in postseason game in franchise history
  • It is also the most lopsided loss for any team in a postseason game at home
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever by a Yankee team in a postseason game
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever in postseason game for any team that gave up no more than one homer
  • Austin Romine is first catcher in MLB history to pitch in a postseason game; the only other position player to do it was Blue Jays infielder Cliff Pennington in the 2015 ALCS Game 5 against the Royals
  • Summing up the pitching mess … Yankees are first team in Major-League history to give up at least 16 runs, 18 hits and eight walks in a postseason game

And mercifully, we close this section with our #NotFunFact of the series, awarded to Luis Severino:

End of the Chase For 28
It’s a game of inches, and the Yankees were just a few short in Tuesday night’s 4-3 loss. Folks, I hope you’re sitting down for this series-ending Obscure Yankeemetric … It was the 14th time the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason at home, but the first time it happened in a one-run game at the Stadium with the winning run on base when the game ended. Welp.

(Newsday)

For the second straight night, Yankees found themselves in early hole, after CC Sabathia allowed three runs in the first three innings, a rare mediocre outing for him given his postseason track record in the Bronx. This was his eighth playoff start at home as a Yankee, and the first one that he gave up more than two runs. His 1.61 ERA in his previous seven home postseason starts was the second-best by any Yankee (min. 4 starts).

Zach Britton coughed up the fourth run via a 338-foot homer by Christian Vazquez that barely cleared the short porch in right field. It was the first homer Britton has allowed to a No. 9 batter in his career. And, according to ESPN’s home run tracking system, it would not have been a home run at any of the other 29 ballparks. A true ‘Yankee Stadium Special’, served up at the worst possible moment:

In a season where #toomanyhomers was a nightly trend on Yankees twitter, the team failed to go deep in the fateful final two games. The only other time this season the Bombers were homerless in back-to-back games in the Bronx was April 7 and 8 against the Orioles, the fifth and sixth home games of the season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Yankees’ luxury tax payroll situation for 2018

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Updated: 10/1/18

Estimated 2018 Yankees’ luxury tax payroll: $192.5M
2018 luxury tax threshold: $197 million

The 2018 regular season is complete. The Yankees were, as expected, one of the best teams in MLB. They finished 100-62 with a +182 run differential despite a barrage of injuries that sent Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Clint Frazier, and Jordan Montgomery to the disabled list for long stretches of time. Others like Didi Gregorius and Aroldis Chapman have missed time as well. Overall though, the Baby Bombers are pretty rad.

One number has been hanging over the Yankees all year: $197M. That is the luxury tax threshold for the 2018 season. Ownership and the front office are adamant the Yankees will get under the threshold this year — they’ve paid luxury tax every year since the system was put in place in 2003 — which would reset their luxury tax rate. Right now the Yankees are taxed at the maximum 50%.

As the season progressed the team’s payroll situation evolved due to call-ups and midseason additions. Every change to the roster changed the luxury tax payroll. Because getting under the $197M threshold this year is an important stated goal, we did our best to keep track of the payroll situation with this intermittently updated post. Here’s where the Yankees stand as of October 1st.

On September 10th, the last time I updated the payroll situation, I had the Yankees with a $197.1M projected luxury tax payroll for the season, which was over the $197M threshold. Now I have that at $192.5M after the season. Let me explain.

1. Most bonuses were not accrued. Most notably, CC Sabathia fell two innings short of a $500,000 bonus because he was ejected for throwing at Jesus Sucre last week. That was the whole “that’s for you, bitch” episode. Here’s a recap of bonuses we know definitively the Yankees will not have to pay out:

  • Lance Lynn: $1M each for 170 and 180 innings pitched (finished with 156.2 IP total)
  • Andrew McCutchen: $25,000 for All-Star Game (Giants would’ve paid this anyway)
  • David Robertson: $15,000 for All-Star Game; $25,000 for All-Star Game starter
  • CC Sabathia: $500,000 each for 155, 165, 175, and 185 innings pitched (finished with 153 IP)
  • Giancarlo Stanton: $50,000 for All-Star Game
  • Neil Walker: $125,000 each for 425, 450, 475, and 500 plate appearances (finished with 398 PA)

That is $4,615,000 worth of possible bonuses right there, with most of it being tied up in Lynn’s and Sabathia’s innings. That’s a lot of money! When you’re counting every penny to stay under a hard payroll cap, these bonuses have to be considered. They can sneak up on you.

I included many of these bonuses in the last payroll update because they are real dollars that have to be considered, but now that the regular season is over, we know they won’t be paid out. That’s why our luxury tax payroll estimate dropped from $197.1M to $192.5M since our last update.

2. There are still several bonuses possible. Playing time and All-Star Game bonuses were not reached this season. We know that now. There are still several awards bonuses lingering, however, and these will count against the luxury tax payroll. Here’s a breakdown of the bonuses that are still possible:

  • Andrew McCutchen: $25,000 each Gold Glove and World Series MVP; $125,000 for MVP; $75,000 for MVP second place; $50,000 for MVP third place
  • David Robertson: $25,000 for Gold Glove; $50,000 for Sporting News All-Star; $75,000 for ALCS MVP; $100,000 each for MVP and Cy Young; $90,000 each for MVP and Cy Young second place; $80,000 each for MVP and Cy Young third place; $70,000 each for MVP and Cy Young fourth place; $60,000 each for MVP and Cy Young fifth place
  • Giancarlo Stanton: $50,000 each for Gold Glove and Silver Slugger; $100,000 for MVP; $25,000 for ALCS MVP; $50,000 for World Series MVP

That is $800,000 worth of outstanding bonuses. Some of these we can say will not be triggered with reasonable certainty. McCutchen is not winning an AL Gold Glove or the AL MVP award. Robertson’s not winning the AL MVP and/or AL Cy Young, or even finishing in fifth place. The chances of Robertson and Stanton being named ALCS co-MVPs, and McCutchen and Stanton being named World Series co-MVPs, are small. So on so forth.

These bonuses are still out there though and can be accrued, so we might as well include them in our estimate. At this point, that $800,000 in possible bonuses is insignificant anyway. The Yankees have plenty of room under the $197M luxury tax threshold. Enough that they could even pay Sabathia that $500,000 bonus he missed because of the ejection as a thank you without putting the luxury tax plan in danger. That’s not going to happen, of course. I’m just saying.

3. The Yankees added salary at the trade deadline (duh). Boy, were the Yankees active at the trade deadline or what? They made six trades in the week leading up to July 31st and five had a direct impact on the 25-man (and thus 40-man) roster, which means they had luxury tax implications. They then made two more trades prior to the August 31st postseason eligibility deadline. Here’s a recap of the trade deadline activity:

  • Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, and Cody Carroll for Zach Britton. (RAB post)
  • Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney for J.A. Happ. (RAB post)
  • Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos for Luke Voit and $1M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
  • Caleb Frare for $1.5M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
  • Adam Warren for $1.25M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
  • Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo for Lance Lynn. (RAB post)
  • Abi Avelino and Juan De Paula for Andrew McCutchen. (RAB post)
  • Cash or a player to be named later for Adeiny Hechavarria. (RAB post)

(Frare was not on the 40-man roster. That trade had zero impact on the luxury tax payroll.)

Prior to all those trades, the projected luxury tax payroll sat at $184.1M. Now it’s up to $192.5M. So yes, the Yankees did take on salary at the deadline, though perhaps not as much as you’d think. Trading away Drury, Shreve, and especially Warren offset some of the salary gains, plus the Twins and Giants paid half Lynn’s and McCutchen’s remaining salary, respectively.

As for Hechavarria, he is making $5.9M this season, but the Associated Press reports the Yankees were only responsible for the pro-rated portion of the $545,000 league minimum, or roughly $88,000. The Rays and Pirates are paying the rest. The Lynn and Warren moves were essentially payroll neutral. The Yankees really only took on salary with Britton, Happ, and McCutchen at the deadline.

4. The call-ups are complicated. Pre-arbitration-eligible players on split contracts — the majority of the players on the roster, basically — get paid one salary at the Major League level and a different salary in the minors, and their luxury tax hits are pro-rated. The MLB season is 186 days long and say, for example, a player spends 100 days in MLB and 86 days in the minors. His luxury tax hit is then 100 days of MLB salary plus 86 days of MiLB salary.

It’s important to note only minor leaguers on the 40-man roster count against the luxury tax payroll. Jace Peterson, Shane Robinson, David Hale, Stephen Tarpley, and Justus Sheffield were never on the 40-man and in the minors, so their minor league salary is irrelevant for luxury tax purposes. Guys like Thairo Estrada and Albert Abreu are on the 40-man though, so their minor league salaries count against the luxury tax payroll. It’s not much, but every dollar counts.

The Yankees called up eight minor leaguers after rosters expanded on September 1st and several of them weren’t called up until mid-September. September call-ups have a relatively small impact on the luxury tax payroll. They count against it, for sure, but each call up equals less than $100,000 added to the bottom line. Those guys were never going to make or break the luxury tax plan.

5. The disabled list provides no relief. Jacoby Ellsbury’s salary didn’t go away for luxury tax purposes just because he’s injured and didn’t play. The Yankees are recouping some of his salary through insurance, though that doesn’t help the luxury tax situation. Players on the disabled list still count against the luxury tax payroll. It’s like they’re on the active roster. Ben Heller underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season — he didn’t throw a single pitch during the regular season — yet his full salary counted against the luxury tax payroll. Such is life.

6. The Yankees accomplished their goal. The regular season is over and, with the exception of that $800,000 in outstanding possible bonuses, the luxury tax payroll is final. The Yankees are at $192.5M according to my estimate, which is well below the $197M threshold. Keep in mind this is only an estimate and not an official number. I was within $500,000 of the last reported number, however, so I’m feeling pretty good about things. The Yankees are under the threshold.

So what does that mean, exactly? It means their luxury tax rate has been reset. They’ve been taxed at the maximum 50% for years and years and years now. They won’t pay any luxury tax this year, and, if they go over the $206M luxury tax threshold next year, they will be taxed only 20% for every dollar over the threshold. There are also surtaxes for excessive spending:

  • $20M to $40M over threshold: 12% surtax
  • $40M+ over threshold (first time offenders): 42.5% surtax and first round pick moves back ten spots
  • $40M+ over threshold (repeat offenders): 45% surtax and first round pick moves back ten spots

Last season the Yankees paid $15.7M in luxury tax based on a $226.4M luxury tax payroll. The total payout was $242.1M. This year it is $192.5M. The Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS last year, raked in all that postseason revenue (six home dates), received their hefty portion of the league’s BAMTech sale to Disney this year, and slashed payroll nearly $50M. Seems unnecessary, but ownership’s gonna do what ownership’s gonna do.

If you have any questions about the luxury tax payroll, or if you notice an error, shoot me an email at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Yankeemetrics: Final countdown, hello October (Sept. 28-30)

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(AP)

Bronx-bound
Needing a win to finally wrap up the one lingering question mark for their October run — homefield advantage in the Wild Card game — the Yankees came to Boston and took care of business, demolishing the Red Sox 11-6 in Friday’s series opener.

They stuck to their bedrock formula of #toomanyhomers, belting a quartet of longballs — one each in the third, fourth, seventh and eighth innings — en route to the win. It was their MLB-leading 16th game with at least four home runs, and the most ever in a season in franchise history. The only team in MLB history with more four-plus homer games was the Orioles last year (19).

(AP)

Gary Sanchez sparked the dinger parade with a mammoth solo shot in the third that sailed 446 feet over the Green Monster and literally out of the park. Sanchez has a .688 slugging percentage in 77 career at-bats at Fenway Park, the highest mark by any Yankee at the ballpark in franchise history (min. 60 at-bats).

Yankees Highest Slug Pct At Fenway Park (min. 60 AB)
SLG AB
Gary Sanchez .688 77
Babe Ruth .634 519
Roger Maris .630 192

Aaron Hicks broke the game open with a three-run blast in the fourth to make it 8-0. It was his 27th homer of the season, giving the Yankees five guys who reached that mark. The only other team in MLB history to have five players go deep at least 27 times in a season was the 1956 Cincinnati Redlegs.

J.A. Happ cruised through the first five innings, allowing no runs on one hit, before getting into a mess in the sixth and surrendering a grand slam to the latest Yankees kryptonite, Steve Pearce. Happ was done after six innings, and capped his half-season as a Yankee with a perfect 7-0 record, 2.69 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 11 starts. He is the only pitcher in franchise history to make double-digits starts in a season and finish with at least 60 strikeouts, no losses and a sub-2.70 ERA.

(AP)

Record-breaking afternoon
Even with nothing to play for in terms of improving their postseason position, the Yankees still made headlines on Saturday, breaking #toomanyrecords in a 8-5 victory.

The win was their 100th of the season — we love round numbers — and the 20th time in Yankees history they’ve reached that milestone. No other franchise has more than 10 100-win seasons. Combined with the Red Sox and Astros also surpassing the century mark, it’s the first time ever that the Yankees and Red Sox have both had 100-win campaigns in the same season, and the first time in major-league history that three teams from the same league posted 100-win seasons.

Since baseball went to three-division leagues in 1994, the only other team to win at least 100 games and not win their division was the 2001 A’s, who won 102 games and finished second behind the 116-win Mariners.

Gleyber Torres etched the Yankees in the major-league home run record books when he went deep in the fourth inning for the 265th home run of the season, the most ever by a team in a single season. With Torres hitting in the nine-hole, it was the Yankees 20th homer from the bottom of the order, giving them 20 or more homers at every spot in the batting order, another first in MLB history.

Miguel Andujar — shocking, eh? — joined the record-breaker dance party with his 45th and 46th doubles of the season, surpassing Joe DiMaggio for the most ever by a Yankee rookie. He is just the sixth player in franchise history — rookie or not — with 45-plus doubles and 25-plus homers in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Robinson Cano (2009, ‘11-12)
  • Alfonso Soriano (2002)
  • Don Mattingly (1985-86)
  • Lou Gehrig (1927-28)
  • Babe Ruth (1923)

And here’s another impressive #FunFact for Andujar: He is the second rookie in MLB history with at least 46 doubles and 27 homers in a season. The other? Albert Pujols in 2001.

(Getty)

The end of the road
Even before the Yankees and Red Sox took the field in Game No. 162 — a lackluster 10-2 loss — it was a historic matchup. Excluding end-of-season tiebreaker games, this was just the second time in MLB history that two 100-wins teams faced off in the regular season. The other meeting was a Cubs-Pirates series from October 2-4, 1909.

If you like round numbers and historical coincidences, this is second time a Yankees teams has finished the regular season with exactly a 100-62 record. It also happened in 1977, en route to their 21st World Series title.

The history-making continued in the first inning as Luis Cessa retired only one of the six batters he faced, coughing up four runs on four hits. Meaningless #FunFact alert! He is the first Yankee starter since Andy Hawkins in 1990 to get no more than out while allowing at least four runs in a game against the Red Sox. Hawkins somehow managed to do that twice in 1990, on June 5 and September 1.

Miguel Andujar continued his assault on the record books with his 47th double of the season, tying the AL rookie record set by Fred Lynn in 1975. Just for fun, let’s put him on another list of legends. Andujar is the fourth American League player age 23 or younger with at least 25 homers, 47 doubles and 90 RBI in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Alex Rodriguez (1996)
  • Cal Ripken Jr (1983)
  • Hank Greenberg (1934)

Luke Voit made sure the Yankees wouldn’t be shut out with a two-run blast in the fourth inning. He debuted on August 2 but didn’t start heating up until the final week of August. He first went deep in pinstripes on August 24, and from that day to the end of the season he hit 14 homers and drove in 31 runs for the Yankees. In that five-week span, he hit more home runs and had more RBIs than every MLB player except Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich.

Yankeemetrics: Smackdown at Tropicana Field (Sept. 24-27)

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(AP)

Battle of the Bullpens
In an series-opening “bullpen game”, the Yankees gave the Rays a taste of their own medicine with a 4-1 win on Monday. They used eight pitchers to get 27 outs and the results were bueno: two hits, one run and 13 strikeouts.

Sonny Gray was the lone guy that went more than one inning, and he also was the only one that allowed a hit while surrendering the one run. So we had seven pitchers who didn’t give up a hit … sounds like a #FunFact! Yes, the seven “hitless” pitchers is a franchise record for a single game.

And when you add in the fact that each of those seven guys went at least one inning … the Yankees are just the second team in MLB history to have at least seven players allow no hits while each pitching at least one inning in a game. Unsurprisingly, the only other instance came this season — two weeks prior to Monday’s game — when the Angels did it against the Rangers on September 11.

The other important statistical note from this game came in the eighth when Dellin Betances tossed a perfect frame with two groundouts and popout. What, no strikeout? Slacker, Dellin. That snapped his 44-game streak with at least one punchout, the longest streak by a relief pitcher in AL history, and one game shy of the second-longest single-season streak in MLB history set last year by Brewers reliever Corey Knebel. During the streak he struck out 44 percent of the batters he faced and had more than three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed.

El Kracken is Awaken
Gary Sanchez’s bat woke up momentarily on Tuesday, fueling a 9-2 win that moved the Yankees to 37 games above .500, a season-high mark and their most games above the redline since the end of the 2009 regular season (44 games, 103-59).

Sanchez was on base three times, with a walk, home run and a single, and drove in a season-high-tying four runs. Prior to this game, he had just six RBI in 19 games since coming off the DL on September 1.

(AP)

There is no sugar-coating Sanchez’s awful season, but there is one glimmer of optimism if you squint really hard. On the rare occasion that he does get a hit, he makes it count. With his homer on Tuesday, an astounding 56.9 percent (33 of 58) of his hits have gone for extra-bases. That would be the third-highest rate of extra-base hits per hit among the more than 1,000 player-seasons in Yankees history with at least 300 plate appearances. The two ahead of him: Babe Ruth in 1920 (57.6%) and Babe Ruth in 1921 (58.3%).

Luis Severino had a good-but-not-great outing, but he did provide a nice record-breaking note for us Yankeemetricians: His seven strikeouts gave him 450 since the start of 2017, the most ever by a Yankee pitcher in a two-season span. The previous record was set by Ron Guidry, when he struck out 449 guys spanning the 1978-79 seasons.

(USA Today)

Seven is not enough
On the verge of inching closer to homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game next week, the Yankees delivered one of their patented “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” games, losing 8-7 on Wednesday after blowing an early 3-0 lead.

Neil Walker put the Yankees on the board first, drilling a three-run homer in the top of the opening frame. After hitting three homers in his first 73 games (225 at-bats), he has eight homers in his last 38 games (116 at-bats). Each of his last five homers have given the Yankees a lead:

David Robertson put the game out of reach when he suffered a rare meltdown in the eighth inning, allowing five of the six batters he faced to reach base, with four of them coming around to score. It’s the first time in more than eight years that he allowed at least four runs while getting no more than one out in a game. That last time he did that was April 13, 2010 against the Angels; and the only other time he did it in his career was during his first month in the big leagues, on July 28, 2008 against the Orioles.

(AP)

Blowout wins are awesome
The Yankees capped off the series in Tampa with an ultra-satisfying 12-1 rout on Thursday, winning their first series at Tropicana Field in two years (September 20-22, 2016).

The bats exploded for 13 hits, including four #toomanyhomers, increasing their season total to 260 dingers. That’s tied with the 2005 Rangers for the second-most in a single season in MLB history and four shy of the record held by the 1997 Mariners. Now they get a chance to break the record this weekend … three games at Fenway … oh how sweet that would be.

They pounded the Rays early and often, racing out to an early 4-0 lead thanks to a #MiggyMantle three-run homer in the top of the first inning, his 27th of the season. It also gave him 90 RBI, and combined with his 43 doubles, he has put himself in some elite company. Andujar is one of seven rookies in MLB history to reach each of those totals — 90 RBI, 43 doubles and 27 homers — in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Albert Pujols (2001)
  • Nomar Garciaparra (1997)
  • Tony Oliva (1964)
  • Ted Williams (1939)
  • Joe DiMaggio (1936)
  • Hal Trosky (1934)

The Rookie of the Year award was first handed out in 1947; Pujols, Garciappara and Oliva — the other three besides Andujar to make this list since 1947 — each took home the ROY trophy in those years.

CC Sabathia delivered a masterful vintage performance in (probably) his final appearance of the regular season. He allowed one hit while striking out five over five scoreless innings, before getting ejected in the sixth following a revenge-plunking of Rays catcher Jesus Sucre. That lowered his ERA to 3.65 and upped his strikeout total to 140 this year. Only three other pitchers Yankee history have finished with that many strikeouts and that low an ERA in their age-37 season or older: Roger Clemens (2001), Mike Mussina (2006, 2008) and Hiroki Kuroda (2012, 2013).