Despite the struggles of Phil Hughes last night, the Yankees were able to bring the tying and go-ahead runs to the plate on more than one occasion during the game’s late innings. Why? Because the bullpen was utterly lights out.

Three pitchers combined to pitch 5.1 three-hit innings. They combined for one walk and six strikes outs while doing everything they could to keep the Yankees’ dormant offense within spitting distance of the Tigers.

For the Yanks, this newfound bullpen success is a welcome surprise. Over the last five games, the Yanks’ pen has been stellar. The pen has thrown 18 innings, and the pitchers have given up two earned runs on nine hits while walking 10 and striking out 18. While the walk totals area bit high, the strike out totals are excellent.

On the season, the pen’s numbers are pretty good. Yankee relievers have an ERA of 3.72, good for seventh in the AL. They’ve given up 42 runs on 89 hits while walking 39 and striking out 92. Opponents are hitting .237/.314/.349, and the team has blown just one save this season.

But there is a problem: The Yankee bullpen has thrown an AL-leading 101.2 innings this year. They’ve thrown 0.1 innings less than the Major League leaders, and at this rate, the Yanks are going to burn out their bullpen. While they have the fresh arms in the minors and the pen promises to be something of a revolving door this season, the Yanks need more length for their starters. But we knew that already.

In 8.2 Spring Training innings, LaTroy Hawkins was masterful. He allowed seven hits and two unearned runs while walking three and striking out three. But as he said on March 24, “Spring Training don’t mean shit.”

Truer words, LaTroy, were never spoken.

Just two appearances and 2.0 innings into the 2008 regular season, LaTroy Hawkins has been utterly shelled. He’s already one-upped those seven spring training hits and has given up 7 earned runs. He’s managed to walk no one, but he hasn’t struck anyone out either. Luckily for him, two innings does not a season make.

The other long reliever on the Yanks guaranteed hasn’t been much better. With two inherited runners on base, Kyle Farnsworth entered tonight’s game and, well, pulled a Kyle Farnsworth. One batter later, three Tampa Bay runs had scored, and a close 6-4 game quickly ended up at 13-4. On the season, Farnsworth hasn’t been terrible; he has 4 strike outs in 2.1 innings. But the five hits are not a good sign, and the home run tonight just seemed like business as usual for Krazy Kyle.

The rest of the bullpen, meanwhile, has been as good as advertised. Jonathan Albaladejo, Ross Ohlendorf, Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera, Brian Bruney and Billy Traber have given up four hits and no runs in 11.2 innings. This sextet has recored 13 strike outs and one walk in the first four games of the season. Sadly for the Yanks, Albaladejo will be sentenced to the minors.

While sample size issues are certain a problem here, I’m wondering if the Yanks bullpen is better off with Albaladejo and Scott Patterson than it is with Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins. Funny how that works out, eh?

The rest of tonight’s 13-4 loss was rather forgettable. Ian Kennedy simply didn’t have his best stuff tonight. He was missing his spots badly, and his pitches were trailing over the center of the plate. They were very hittable, and the Tampa Bay Rays — a very underrated team — took full advantage of Kennedy’s mistakes. The Yanks meanwhile couldn’t hit a lick outside of one inning.

Today, the Yanks have Pettitte going with a chance to put the season’s first ugly loss behind them. Sadly, he’ll be backed up by one of the weaker combinations of relief pitching the Yanks could put behind him for now. As the starters get over their early-season pains, it will be interesting to see how the Yanks bullpen plays out. Right now, I don’t go to Hawkins or Farnsworth in key situations if I’m Joe Girardi. The kids, meanwhile, are alright.

We’ve spent a lot of time and energy talking about the bullpen this spring. And with three spots realistically up for grabs, it’s been quite an interesting conversation. We know that Mo, Farnsworth, and LaTroy will be making the team, as they have guaranteed deals. It’s also assumed that Joba will break camp in the pen — or at least that’s what he believes right now. That’s four out of the seven, leaving three spots warm for the likes of Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Brian Bruney, Chris Britton, Jon Albaladejo, Edwar Ramirez, Heath Phillips, Billy Traber, Scott Patterson, and (sigh) Sean Henn.

Complicating the issue a bit is Joe Girardi’s desire to see a long man in that bullpen mix. That would indicate Karstens or Rasner, though Ross Ohlendorf was a starter for his entire career until the middle of last year. But if we’re still considering Ohlendorf a one- or two-inning guy, that means we’re now looking at about nine guys for two spots. So things get tougher.

As if that wasn’t enough, it’s pretty much assumed that the team will head into the season with a lefty in the pen. Back in December, we debated the merits of having a lefty in the pen for the sake of having a lefty. We didn’t reach a consensus, but I still believe it wasteful to carry a lefty just because of the arm with which he throws. It’s becoming clear that the Yankees do not share this sentiment.

So that means one spot will be decided among three guys, four if you count Igawa. And that’s a topic I want to revisit. If we’re going to carry a lefty for the sake of carrying a lefty, we might as well discuss it.

Late last week, Billy Traber was added to the 40-man roster, which signaled to many that the spot is all but his. This, though, I have to disagree with. While he very well may get the job out of Spring Training, I’m not sold that he’s the right man for the job.

The thing is, Traber has proved little on the major league level. Yes, he was good against lefties last year in his brief major league stint, but is that enough to justify giving him a spot? And yeah, he’s a former No. 1 pick, but he really hasn’t been the same since he had Tommy John surgery in 2003.

My hope is that he was added to the 40-man so that he can be optioned down to AAA to start the season. This way, we can spend those last two bullpen spots on Patterson and Ohlendorf to see how they can do. Surely, a need in the bullpen will arise as the season progresses.

Then again, I seem to be talking out both sides of my mouth here, as Patterson has no major league experience, and Ohlendorf has just the few innings he tossed last September. Still, I’d rather see Traber, who has had a shot in the majors in each of the last two seasons, start in AAA so we can see what the other guys can do. And if Traber is getting the job done at AAA, then yeah, I’d fully advocate his call-up.

So at this point, let’s just say that I’m not sold at all on Traber as a viable bullpen option out of the gate.

143.2 IP, 91 H, 29 R, 23 ER, 26 BB, 160 K

Scott mother*#%@in’ Patterson since signing with the Yankees on June 16, 2006.

In the never-ending search for some bullpen support, the Yanks have their eyes on Damaso Marte and Brian Fuentes, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo wrote yesterday. As our buddies at MLBTR point out, Fuentes is owed $5.05 million this year, and Marte will make $2 million in 2008 with a 2009 club option for $6 million. If I had my choice, I’d go with Marte. He has AL success and better numbers overall.

There’s an article in the San Diego Union-Tribune today about Kevin Towers and his ability to build bullpens. Well, that’s what the article would lead you to believe at first. The main topic of discussion is Heath Bell. He’s a somewhat strange case. For the most part, his minor league numbers were good, despite a few iffy years. But he never found success in the majors during his early years. Yet, through it all, he’s always been able to 1) strike out a ton of guys and 2) not walk too many. If you’ll glance through his stats in the minors and majors, he’s been able to carry at least a 3:1 K/BB ratio most of the way. And in the later years in the minors, it was far greater than that.

“I can’t really get into details,” Padres General Manager Kevin Towers said yesterday, “but we have guys who do stat analysis who look at lucky versus unlucky. Heath had horrible numbers in the big leagues, but (based on) hard-hit balls versus non-hard-hit balls and balls that should have been caught that weren’t, he just had rough, rough luck.”

Now, I’m not going to sift through batted ball charts right now. Maybe that’s an exercise for another day. But for now, let’s look around the majors who in some way or another fit the Bell profile. We’re talking guys in their late 20s who have had minor league success in the bullpen, but who haven’t quite put it together on the major league level. Peripherals are really key. We’re looking for a strikeout an inning, or at least close to that. And we’re looking for a 3:1 K/BB ratio.

Jason Frasor

Frasor has been in the majors since 2004, and he actually had a decent year in 2005, so he might not jump out at you right away. But if you look at his major league numbers, he’s put up a strikeout an inning and at least a 3:1 K/BB ratio over the past two years. His ERAs in those campaigns: 4.32 and 4.58. But what I find most similar between Bell and Frasor are the minor league marks. Once Frasor was converted to the bullpen in 2003, he was a strikeout machine. The best part is that he doesn’t walk too many. In fact, in his first year in the pen, he struck out 86 in 61 innings, which is insane. It’s more insane that he struck out 87 the previous year in 112 innings. And to bring the insanity meter even higher, he walked just 18 guys in 2003, giving him a K/BB ratio of 4.78. He could really help out an improving Blue Jays bullpen this year.

Grant Balfour

Balfour had spent most of his career with the Twins until 2006, when he was signed by the Red, and then split time between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay in 2007. In the majors, he’s put up ERAs in the mid-4s. And when you look at his peripherals, he seems to walk a few too many guys to fit our desired profile. But he does strike out more than a guy an inning, which is the first step. Now, take a gander at his minor league numbers. Well now. Those K:BB numbers are looking a bit nicer. The Brewers hid him for a bit in the minors last year, where he racked up 47 strikeouts to 11 walks in 32 innings. So yeah, the potential is there. And really, if you look at his game logs, you’ll see that his ERA last year was rather tainted by a zero-inning, four-run outing against the Red Sox. We could certainly see Balfour step up this year and become another cog in Tampa Bay’s hypertrophying pitching staff.

Santiago Casilla

You might notice a discrepancy in Casilla’s age. Look at his Baseball Reference page, and then his minors page. The A’s roster has him as being born in 1980, so we’ll say that he’s entering his age 28 season. He only has one season of more than six innings in the majors, last year, when he tossed up a 4.44 ERA in 50.7 innings, striking out 52 and walking 23. So he walked just a few too many guys, but nothing too too alarming. He had a similar trend in the minors, too, basically a 2:1 ratio. So why do I mention him? His previous years have been better. Back in 2005, he struck out 103 batters in 65 innings, while only walking 29. That’s 14 per nine innings! I’m not sure what happened in 2006, though. He struck out 32 in 33 innings, walking only 10, which is quality. But he tossed under 35 innings for the year, which speaks of injury. RotoWorld notes shoulder issues in 2006. Casilla has only been up in the majors for one season, really, and could struggle again in 2008. However, he’s not a bad bet moving forward, especially if he can regain that electric strikeout stuff he apparently demonstrated in ‘05.

Greg Aquino

I really considered leaving Aquino off here because of his walk rates. He’s managed decent strikeout rates since converting to the bullpen, but he’s never really gotten far past the 2:1 K/B ratio, even in the minors. He had some arm troubles last year which limited his playing time. But if he can find some way to bring down that walk rate, he’s going to find success in the majors. Of course, it makes sense then that Andy MacPhail picked him off of waivers this off-season.

A few other guys to keep an eye on:

Zach McClellan, Brad Salmon, Jack Taschner, Tyler Yates, Francisco Rosario, John Bale.

Of course, none of this is guaranteed, not by any means. A thorough scouting job needs to be performed on each guy before you can say that he’s going to blossom into a viable reliever. However, given the statistical profiles, it seems these guys are worth a look.

In 2007, the Padres and the Red Sox topped their respective leagues in bullpen ERA and batting average against. Thing is, entering the season, neither team had much to boast about in that department. In fact, the Sox pen was in such shambles that Jonathan Papelbon told Tony Francona that he wanted to move back to the closer role (or at least that’s how Boston tells the story). So how did these two teams come out ahead?

Skilled closer

Obviously, the first step in building a bullpen is creating a viable endgame. Both Trevor Hoffman and Jonathan Papelbon qualify as such. They keep things relatively stable at the end — Papelbon more than Hoffman, though, as he blew just three saves last year (and we remember a couple of ‘em), while Hoffman was the goat in seven games, including the most important one for the Padres.

There’s not much else to say about this. We have it in Mo, who I think we all can agree is better than Hoffman at this stage of his career.
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As has been the norm over the past few years, it appears the Yankees will be carrying 13 position players and 12 pitchers on their 25-man roster. In some ways, this is a luxury the Yankees can afford. As we mentioned earlier this week, the Yanks have a bit of roster flexibility on the offensive side, with backups Duncan and Betemit able to play multiple positions if needed.

If the team is going to carry 12 pitchers, some will argue that one of them has to be a lefty. I’m not quite sure I buy into that logic. There are a couple of questions that go along with this, which I’m not sure I’m able to answer.

First, what is the purpose of having a lefty reliever? Well, like having a lefty in the rotation, one purpose is to keep the opposition off balance. However, I’m not sure how much of a difference that makes. Sure, you see lefties less often than righties, but ballplayers surely see enough of them that they’re not going to be overly affected merely by seeing someone throw with their left arm.

It seems that we’ve come to the consensus of late that the purpose of a lefty reliever is to come in and face “tough lefties.” Of course, there is plenty of debate about this as well. To the Yankees, this issue might be a bit more paramount, since they see David Ortiz multiple times per year. There are other big lefties in the AL East, too, including Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Nick Markakis. In addition, Matt Stairs and Brian Roberts have favorable splits vs. righties, and there’s always J.D. Drew, who could go out and have a year like he did in 2004. And then there are the other lefties the Yanks face from time to time, like Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jack Cust, Yankee-killer Garrett Anderson, and soon to be Alex Gordon.

So the second question is, does the value of having a better chance of getting these guys out justify a lefty reliever’s place on the 25-man roster, and more specifically, on the 12-man pitching staff? After all, none of these aforementioned lefties hit back-to-back in their respective batting orders. This leaves few options for the deployment of a lefty reliever if there are multiple strong lefties in a lineup. You either have him face one or the other, or you have him pitch to the righty in between. And since these lefties, for the most part, hit at the front or heart of their order, you can bet the righty in the middle is going to be a masher himself.

Clearly, the overriding criteria for a lefty reliever is that he fare well against lefty hitters. Bonus points go to the lefty who can also hold his own against righties. Problem is, pitchers who fit this description are rare. Combined with the general volatility of relief pitchers, it makes the search of an effective lefty arm sometimes grueling.

Two lefty relievers remain on the free agent market: Trever Miller and Jeremy Affeldt. After seeing mediocre colleagues Ron Mahay and J.C. Romero pull down some serious dollars, the remaining two are sure to be holding out for similar deals. And while it may be tempting to pick up one of them, I don’t think either will make much of a difference.

Miller had an off year in 2007 after quite a few above-average years. A quick glance might suggest that he’s a viable bounce-back candidate — I thought the same thing when I pulled up his Baseball Reference page. However, let’s look at the numbers beyond the ERA.

The past two years, he’s struck out about a batter per inning, which is always nice from a reliever. However, this is a recent trend. Before 2006, he had never hit the strikeout-per-inning mark, though he hovered at about seven per nine for most of his career. Also, since 2000 he hasn’t allowed more hits than innings pitched. Ah, but he’s got the blemish: terrible walk rate. Or at least inconsistent. He was able to keep his walks per nine below 3.00 in two seasons — 2004 and 2006 — and he was stellar at those times. The other years, though, he’s been above 4.00. I don’t know about you, but I’ve seen enough of that garbage from our pen.

His splits against lefties in 2004 and 2006, unsurprisingly, were excellent. He even had decent splits last year, when he was pretty much crap. On his “off” years, though, he’s had trouble keeping his OPS below .700 against lefties. And, though it all, one theme remains consistent, even in his “on” years: he gives up WAY too many bombs against lefties. Doubles and bombs. Exactly what you don’t want from a reliever.

If you’re as sick of me of relievers walking everyone, you won’t even look at Affeldt. His BB/9 — even in 2007, when he had a decent year — is consistently over 4.50. He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, either, which means that he’s allowing a lot of contact. Contact and walks. Not good. This has resulted in him allowing over a hit per inning every year of his career — except his contract year, of course. His splits are all over the place, but on the whole they’re not good against lefties at all.

I’d rather have no lefties in the pen than sign either of these guys. If Miller would accept a one-year deal, then maybe I’d consider, but it’s doubtful he’d do that. That leaves the Yanks with internal options: Sean Henn, Kei Igawa, Chase Wright, and possibly Ben Kozlowski, if they’re able to bring him back on a minor-league deal.

Henn survived the winter cuts and is out of options, so he’s likely to get the first nod. I’m not sure what the team’s plans for Igawa are, but starting him off in Scranton seems the ideal scenario. Chase Wright posted decent lefty/righty splits in AA, so there’s a chance he could serve as a bullpen lefty in the future. But, since he struggled at the AAA level, there’s little chance he breaks camp with the team.

Personally, I’d rather carry an all-righty bullpen than hand the spot to Miller, Affeldt, or Henn. It appears the Yanks are hearing those sentiments on the former two, but not on Henn. He’s probably going to have to fail at the Major League level again before the Yankees sever ties — and who knows how many games he’ll screw up by that point?

The overall idea is, why carry a lefty reliever if you can’t find any such players who can serve the purpose of having a lefty in the pen? It makes no sense to me.

I’m not sure why we didn’t see the Yanks connected with Japanese reliever Kazuo Fukumori before, but according to Newsday, they’ve announced their intentions to Alan Nero, Fukumori’s agent. You may remember Nero from this past week, when he approached the Yankees about a long-term deal for client Chien-Ming Wang, but cowered from making the first offer. Anyway, they’re supposedly one of 10 teams in on the righty, though I’m sure Nero is counting every team that has even a passing interest.

I’m not sure what to make of Fukumori. His strikeout rates are all over the place — it seems he’s either around 4.50 per 9 innings, or over one per inning, which has to give pause. For instance, he struck out 36 in 75 innings in 2005, and recorded a 3.57 ERA. In 2006, he struck out 55 in 58 innings, to an ERA of 2.17 ERA. In 2007, he kept his strikeout rate up — 33 in 36 innings — but had a 4.75 ERA.

Here’s a scouting report, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors:

Might have emerged as a top-flight closer on a better team, but best years may have been wasted playing for expansion Rakuten Golden Eagles. Still, saved 21 games and was an All-Star in ‘06. ERA jumped nearly two runs in 2007, but still saved 17 and maintained a strikeout per inning ratio. Has a formidable slider that tails toward right handed batters. Could emerge as a nice sleeper considering the number of solid closers possibly headed to the U.S.

Through all this, though, he’s always had a poor walk rate, which immediately has me saying “pass.” He also managed to toss only 36 innings last year, after having totals of 60, 48, 63, and 58 from 2003 through 2006. There’s just too much inconsistency there. If I want a guy who’s going to walk the farm, I’ll throw Bruney in the bullpen. He seems like he could do just as well as Fukumori at a far lesser cost.

MLB Trade Rumors also cites a source that says the Yanks think they’re in the lead for Ron Mahay (purple monkey dishwasher). We’ve heard rumors of Mahay seeking a three-year between $9 and $12 million. Once again, I’m not so keen on signing someone so old and so inconsistent to a long-term contract.

We interrupt this Johan Santana orgy to bring you word that the Yanks are one of a few teams interested in Octavio Dotel. When last we saw Dotel, he threw 10 innings for the 2005 Yankees and was terrible. Last year, he threw 30 injury-filled innnings and was slightly less terrible. I say, “Pass.”