Archive for Death by Bullpen
Market looks bare for free agent setup men
Posted by: | CommentsOn his Touching Base blog, the Daily News’s Jesse Spector takes a look at the free agent class of setup men. With the possibility that both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes start the season in the rotation, the Yanks are going to need someone to pitch the late innings. Judging by Spector’s list, which goes into the arbitration status of each player, the Yanks will probably favor internal candidates. There aren’t any truly elite setup men in the class (or else they’d probably market themselves as closer), but their 2009 salaries were a bit more than you’d want to pay for a middle reliever.
Spector lists five players among those whose teams will likely offer them arbitration. Those include Type A’s Darren Oliver, Rafael Betancourt, and John Grabow. Of them, only Betancourt seems remotely worth the money, and his value is likely overrated now because of his stellar second half in Colorado. He’s had great seasons beofre, but he’s also turned in clunkers — most recently in 2008, when he posted a 5.07 ERA over 71 innings. With the contract he’ll want, plus the first-round pick he’ll cost, I think the Yanks will stay away.
Among the players who will likely not cost a compensation pick (i.e., their teams will not offer them arbitration in all likelihood), there still aren’t any standout names. Octavio Dotel and LaTroy Hawkins top the list, and we all know how each of their stints in pinstripes went. Otherwise, none of the listed pitchers will be worth the salary, especially when there are comparable options in the system.
Given the dearth of relief pitching on the market, and given the volatile nature of relieving in general, I think the Yanks will do best to stick with the options in the system. This might mean that Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain pitches out of the bullpen for a portion of 2010. Readers know that I don’t favor such a solution, but I’d rather do that for a year than sign a free agent to set up. Obviously, the ideal solution is for the guys already on the roster — mostly Robertson, but also Melancon and Bruney — to step up and take the late innings. They’re the Yanks best shot.
The rise of Damaso Marte
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When the playoffs started, the question wasn’t whether Damaso Marte would be the first or second lefty reliever out of the bullpen, it was will he even be on the playoff roster? Three-plus weeks later, he’s morphed from an “only in an emergency” option to a bonafide weapon out of Joe Girardi’s bullpen.
It’s no secret that Marte’s Yankee career started off in inauspicious fashion. After being acquired along with Xavier Nady at the 2008 trade deadline, Marte put 24 men on base in just 18.1 IP to close out the year, though his 3.02 FIP and 3.71 tRA disagreed with his 5.40 ERA. Then, in a somewhat surprising move, the Yankees declined Marte’s $6M option for 2009 only to re-sign him to a three-year, $12MM deal a week later. It was surprising because the team took on much more risk, rather than being able to walk away after a year if things didn’t go as planned. And they didn’t go as planned, at least as first.
Marte returned from the World Baseball Classic with shoulder inflammation, and then proceeded to serve up three homers and allow nine runs in his first seven outings of the season, covering just 5.1 IP. His velocity was down, and he ended up on the DL in early May with a sore shoulder. With CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher performing so well, Marte certainly looked like the token dud offseason move.
After getting cleared by Dr. Andrews, Marte’s rehab experience started way down with the rookie level Gulf Coast League Yankees. He ultimately made 13 rehab appearances, 11 with Triple-A Scranton, which is an unusually high number. It seemed like the team was in no rush to get him back up to the big leagues, and sure enough when he did return in late August, he was used sparingly in low-leverage spots. His season numbers were pretty awful (9.45 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 5.30 tRA), but he held lefties to a .120-.214-.280 batting line and got his postseason spot because of the presence of Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel in the middle of Minnesota’s lineup.
Since the playoffs started, not only has Marte usurped Phil Coke as the primary lefthander out of the bullpen, he’s also jumped ahead of several righthanders in the setup crew pecking order. After allowing a pair of singles to Mauer and Kubel to start his 2009 postseason, Marte has retired the last 10 batters he’s faced, three on strikeouts thanks to a ridiculous 79.4% strike rate (yes, I know it’s in a small sample). He’s completely neutralized NLCS MVP Ryan Howard (0-for-3 with a strikeout in the World Series, 0-for-3 with three strikeouts career coming into the series), and pretty much everyone else that stood in the box.
Yankee fans crushed Marte all season long, saying he couldn’t handle the pressure of playing in New York, the usual shtick like that. A few of us stood by him, noting that his long and impressive track record indicated that he’s not just a good reliever, but one of the better and more consistent relievers of the century. Judging players on small sample sizes, especially when they were dealing with an injury, is never a good idea, and now Marte is rewarding Girardi’s faith by getting crucial outs in the late innings of October November. Remember, he’s the only reliever in the bullpen aside from Mariano Rivera with World Series experience.
Considering how recent postseason performance can inflate salaries on the open market, the Yankees may have actually saved themselves some money by re-signing Marte semi-long-term last offseason instead of just picking up his option and letting him hit the market again this winter. Funny how these things work out.
Photo Credit: Nick Laham, Getty Images
A Second Look: Managing the 8th inning
Posted by: | CommentsBefore moving on entirely from last night’s Game 1 loss to a dominant Cliff Lee, I want to take a few minutes this morning to delve in depth into a potential turning point of the game. Specifically, I want to see how the 8th inning unfolded and why while offering up a potential alternative. I hate to call it a second-guess of Joe Girardi because I think he made the right moves, but he could have a made a move that was perhaps more right than the ones that didn’t work out last night.
With CC at 113 pitches through seven and the Yanks eying him for a Game 4 start on short rest, Joe Girardi had to go to the bullpen. To start the inning, he went to Phil Hughes. At that point, the leverage index — a measure of how critical a particular situation is — made Hughes’ appearance a logical one. Down 2-0, Girardi wanted to keep the game close, and he went with the guy who has been the second-best reliever.
Hughes, though, couldn’t deliver. His mechanics seem out of whack, and he walked both Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. Back to the pen went Joe Girardi and into the game came Damaso Marte. With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard due up, this move sorta kinda made sense. Utley had homered twice off of a lefty, and he hit southpaws this year to the tune of a .288/.417/.545 line. His OPS against lefties is .085 higher than it is against righties. Howard, on the other hand, hits .207/.298/.356 off of left-handers.
Marte did his job as Chase Utley struck out and Ryan Howard flew out. Again, Girardi went to the pen, and again, he made the move that, on paper, seemed to be the right one. Jayson Werth hit .302/.436/.644 against lefties but just .256/.348/.457 against righties. Although Girardi had the option to intentionally walk Werth and keep Marte in to face Raul Ibañez, another lefty bat, Ibañez had .139 points higher against lefties than against righties. Despite calls for Phil Coke, despite the populist movement to match up lefty-lefty, here, using a right-hander against the Phils’ lefty DH simply made more sense.
David Robertson, though, ran into a problem. He walked Jayson Werth on four straight pitches (even if PitchF/x disagrees). At this point, with the game on the line, David Robertson was pitching in the highest leverage situation the Yanks had faced since the Phillies had bases loaded in the first inning. They desperately needed an out, but Robertson allowed a seeing-eye two-run single into the hole between first and second. The game became officially out of reach.
Here, then is my almost-second guess: With the game in danger of being blown out, you almost have to hand the ball over to the reliever you want most for high leverage situations. The Yankees needed the game to be saved right there to have a shot at coming back against Cliff Lee, and Mariano is the guy who gets saves. This wasn’t a save situation by rulebook, but it was a save of a close game. Robertson faltered in the high leverage situation, and the Yanks let Game 1 get out of hand.
Of course, the Yankees can’t use Mariano Rivera in every late-inning high-leverage situation. He can’t pitch seven times in a seven-game series. He has, however, once appeared four times in a five-game series (2000) and five times in a seven game series (2004). Just last week, he made five appearances in the six-game ALCS. To keep the game close, the Yanks could have asked for four outs from Mariano after two days off.
In the end, it didn’t matter. The Yankees couldn’t plate two runs against Lee. Maybe the 9th shakes down differently with Mo instead of The Brian Bruney Experience and Phil Coke; maybe not. Furthermore, if the Yanks have to go to Mo for every high-leverage situation this week, they have far deeper bullpen problems than they can afford to have right now. Still, I have long challenged the use of closers in save situations as compared to leverage situations. Tonight, the Yanks rolled the high-leverage dice with someone not named Mariano and lost.
Will Girardi use Robertson in key situations?
Posted by: | CommentsJoe Girardi faced heavy criticism in the ALCS for his bullpen management. After a season of mostly good moves, he made a few inexplicable ones this past round. They ran the gamut of possible errors: taking a guy out too soon, leaving a guy in too long, and using the wrong pitcher. Game 3 featured two such moves. First came when Girardi went to Joba Chamberlain with one out in the seventh. The other came when he removed David Robertson in the 11th.
Robertson is the connecting theme here. Girardi shouldn’t have taken him out in the 11th after he recorded two quick outs, but before that he should have used him in the seventh. It’s pretty clear that the move to the bullpen hasn’t magically turned Joba back into his 2007 version, and it’s equally clear that Robertson is the superior choice at this point. Yet not only did Girardi remove Robertson for a poor reason in Game 3, he refused to use him in Games 4, 5, and 6, despite having plenty of opportunities to do so.
What made Girardi’s decision to not use Robertson even more frustrating is that he continued to use Joba. In Games 2, 3, and 5, Joba recorded three outs but put five men on base. In Game 3 one of those hits led to the go-ahead run scoring on a sac fly. In Game 5 it forced Girardi to bring Mariano into a game where the team was trailing. All the while Robertson sat in the bullpen, wondering what he had to do for Girardi to bring him into the game.
This made Girardi’s decision to use Chamberlain with one on and one out in the seventh inning of Game 6 even more troubling. Again, Joba had faced eight batters in his previous three appearances and let five of them reach base. He ultimately succeeded in Game 6, but a bad bet that works out doesn’t suddenly turn into a good bet. It was a poor move, and Girardi got lucky that Chamberlain didn’t pull the same stunt he had in his previous ALCS appearances.
In his World Series preview, Keith Law advocates a heavier dosage of Robertson.
David Robertson should be the first righty out of the pen over Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves; if Phil Hughes‘ struggles are more than just a fluke, I’d give Robertson important outs in the eighth. In fact, I’m not sure where I’d deploy Joba at this point; his command is poor, and his stuff isn’t blowing guys away.
In Robertson’s tiny playoff sample he’s allowed two hits in three innings. He does have two walks, which make the numbers look far worse, but both were intentional. When he’s actually pitching to hitters he gets them out — 10 of the 12 batters he’s pitched to in total so far. But that doesn’t tell the story of Robertson’s role on this Yankees team.
He went from erratic mop-up guy earlier in the year to a viable setup man by August. His 4.7 per nine innings walk rate doesn’t speak well of him, but most of that damage came in the first half. From the All-Star Break on, he walked just seven in 21 innings, a 3.00 per nine rate. He also posted excellent strikeout numbers throughout the season, 13 per nine, and that didn’t slow down much in the second half.
Robertson’s greatest asset against the Phillies is his ability to neutralize lefties with his curveball. Lefties faced him 83 times and hit just .189/.277/.324, vs. righties who hit .237/.343/.409. He also strikes out lefties more frequently, about one every 2.8 plate appearances, vs. one every 3.3 appearances against righties. This means that Robertson could pitch a full inning or more, regardless of who is due up. This is in contrast to Phil Coke and Damaso Marte, the lefties in the pen, who will likely face only Ryan Howard. The other lefties in the Phils lineup, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley, actually hit better against lefties than righties this season.
Phil Hughes might still have a lock on the eighth inning, but at any point before that, Robertson should be the go-to guy. Unfortunately, unless someone changed Girardi’s thinking, Joba will be the first righty out of the pen. That hurts the Yankees in many ways. Robertson is the better option at this point, and considering his strikeout rate and success against lefties, there’s no one better for the Yanks to deploy in the seventh inning.
Rethinking Girardi’s ALCS bullpen approach
Posted by: | CommentsFor 162 games this year, Joe Girardi had a fairly consistent bullpen approach. While the generally theory is to get the ball to Phil Hughes in the 8th and Mariano Rivera in the 9th, Joe had, through a series of mid-season auditions, figured out the best approach to the three or four outs in between the time when he removed his starting pitcher and when he brought in Hughes, and by the time early August rolled around, David Robertson had assumed the role.
Now, Robertson wasn’t given the role. He had to earn it. Early on in the season, Brian Bruney had that spot after losing the 8th to Phil Hughes, but Bruney couldn’t hold it down. After Bruney, the role was Alfredo Aceves’ to lose, and after a shaky July brought about by some shoulder pain, Aceves lost it. It was then that David Robertson earned that position of trust, and he quickly emerged as the Yanks’ third best reliever.
On the season, Robertson had some pretty impressive numbers. He struck out 63 of the 191 batters he faced, good for a K/9 IP of 13.0. Although he walked 4.7 per 9 innings, by year’s end, he had reduced that walk rate. In the 7th, he was just as good. He faced 30 batters in the 7th inning — a small sample size for sure — but struck out 12 of them and allowed just two 7th inning runs. By most accounts, he was the Yanks’ third best reliever in 2009.
And then we have Joba Chamberlain. As we know, on the year, Joba was less than consistent and not as effective as we hoped. Sporting a lower velocity that many believe came about after his August 2008 shoulder injury and less control than we had seen in the past, Joba threw 157.1 to mixed results. He had a 4.75 ERA and a K/9 IP of just 7.6. His walk rate was up, and opponents hit .274/.363/.439 against him. By season’s end, no one really trusted him.
No one, that is, except Joe Girardi. When the playoffs rolled around, the Yanks announced that Joba would be in the bullpen, and we waited to see how Girardi would deploy Chamberlain. After watching the last few games, now we know: Joba Chamberlain will pitch before Phil Hughes in a spot customarily reserved for the team’s third best reliever.
Needless to say, Joba has disappointed. He has faced 12 batters this postseason and five of them have hits. His fastball still is topping out at around 95 and his control, as we saw yesterday, is non-existent. Robertson, meanwhile, has faced 14 batters this season and just two of them have hits. He has allowed two others to reach, but those were on intentional walks. He pitched out of a bases-loaded, no-out situation against the Twins in the ALDS and was invaluable against the Angels during the Game 2 marathon on Saturday night.
As Girardi has gotten too cute with his pitching changes, as, in the words of Mike, he makes the game of baseball look harder than it actually is, it’s time to go back to what worked. The Bridge to Mariano should remain David Robertson in the 7th — Phil Coke is a lefty pops up — and then Phil Hughes. That approach worked during the regular season and probably would have given the Yanks a 3-0 lead yesterday. Joba hasn’t earned anyone’s trust, and should not be pitching in key situations in a close ALCS.
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As a postscript to Girardi’s approach last night: I know a lot of fans have bought the excuse that David Robertson did not match up well with Howie Kendrick. (For instance, see this defense of Girardi.) He still managed to overmanage though. If Robertson doesn’t match up well with Kendrick, then have D-Rob walk Kendrick to face Jeff Mathis, a batter who cannot handle a fastball for his life. Instead, in a tie game on the road, Girardi burned his best available reliever after all of 11 pitches. If Mathis still hits that game-winning blast, then fine. At least the Yanks go down with their best on the mound and not their 7th pitcher in 4.1 innings.
ALCS Preview: The Bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsWith plenty of time between the end of play Sunday and the start of the ALCS on Friday evening, we’ve been taking our time previewing the series. We’ve already looked at the infielders, the starters, and the managers, so now we’ll hit the relief corps.
The Yankees bullpen was rock solid last year, so fans expected more of the same this year since the cast of characters was largely unchanged. Things didn’t go as planned in April, and soon guys like Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, and Jon Albaladejo were jettisoned in favor of younger players, who proved to be up to the task. The only two relievers to stay on the team’s active roster wire-to-wire were Mariano Rivera and Phil Coke. The rest of the group came aboard around May.
As a whole, the Yankees bullpen thoroughly outperformed their haloed counterparts. Let’s break it down…
| Angels | Yankees | |
| ERA | 4.45 | 4.28 |
| FIP | 4.45 | 4.32 |
| WHIP | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| K/9 | 6.61 | 7.82 |
| BB/9 | 3.26 | 3.56 |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| AVG | .271 | .253 |
| GB/FB | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| WAR | +16.6 | +18.7 |
The Yankees have the Angels beat, or at least tied, in every category but walks per nine innings, and even there the difference is just one free pass every 30 innings. That doesn’t even take into consideration the division each team plays in. It’s safe to say the Yanks come into the series with a superior bullpen, though let’s break it down on an even deeper level anyway.
The Angels carried just ten pitchers on their ALDS roster, four of them starters. That leaves just six relievers, whereas the Yankees rolled with eight in the Division Series (eleven pitchers total, three starters). That makes for a tricky comparison, but we’ll manage.
Closer: Mariano Rivera vs. Brian Fuentes
Well, there’s not much debate here, so I’ll keep it short. Mo again defied age this year, posting a phenomenal 72-12 K/BB ratio in 66.1 IP. Fuentes got the job done for the Angels, but he allowed 78 baserunners in just 55 IP and was rather shaky all season. Mike Scioscia can say he has confidence in his closer all he wants, but the fact of the matter is that no one in Yankee Universe will feel the good guys are out of it until that 27th out is recorded.
High-Leverage Guys: Joba Chamberlain & Phil Hughes vs. Jason Bulger & Kevin Jepsen
The Angels relief core suffered a huge blow in late May when their ultrareliable and long-time setup man Scot Shields went down for the season with a knee injury. Jose Arredondo got the first shot at replacing Shields, but faltered and wound up back in Triple-A before being left off the playoff roster. Not only did Plan A get hurt, but Plan B failed as well.
Luckily for Scioscia, Bulger stepped up his game and was fantastic pretty much all season, posting a 1.99 ERA and a .172 AVG against while striking out 52 in 54.1 IP from May 2nd to Sept. 23rd (we won’t count four subpar outings to end the season against him). The problem is that he walks more guys than you’d like a late inning reliever to, 30 in 64.1 IP this year. Baseball America ranked Jepsen the team’s 6th best prospect coming into the season, and even though he struggled in the first half, he finished the year strong: .245-.302-.274 against after August 8th, with a 2.24 FIP. Both Bulger and Jepsen can bring it, dialing it up to the mid-90’s, and they’ve been effective late game options for the Angels down the stretch.
The Yankees have their own pair of hard throwing setup men now that Joba Chamberlain has joined Phil Hughes in the bullpen for the playoffs. Hughes was simply masterful as a reliever this season, putting up a 1.93 FIP and a .456 OPS against in over 50 IP (51.1, to be exact). Joba has looked good in a tiny sample after going back into the bullpen for the playoffs, and while it’s unreasonable to expect him to repeat his 2007-2008 bullpen performance, all he needs to do is throw strikes with his stuff to be effective. Easier said than done, of course.
Edge goes to the Yankees because of Hughes’ utter dominance in baseball’s toughest division, however no one should sleep on Bulger and Jepsen, they could open some eyes this series.
Lefty: Phil Coke vs. Darren Oliver
Darren Oliver, the ageless wonder, enjoyed a fantastic season at age 38, allowing just 83 baserunners in 73 IP against 65 strikeouts. He pitched in all three ALDS games against Boston, allowing just one hit in 2.1 IP. Mike Scioscia uses him as more than just a lefty specialist, often asking Oliver to pitch full innings late in close games. Oddly enough, he has a reverse platoon split, so the Angels don’t have an obvious weapon against lefty batters in the bullpen. Maybe the Yanks can loan them Damaso Marte for the series.
Phil Coke, on the other hand, should be used strictly as a lefty specialist this series, and in fact his sole purpose in the ALCS will be to get Bobby Abreu out. Coke held lefties to a .195-.218-.366 batting line this year, and even though he worked full innings – facing both lefties and righties – at times this year, the Yanks have plenty of other options that will relegate Coke to LOOGY status this series. It tough to give anyone edge here because we’re talking about two different pitchers in two different roles, but I guess if I had to pick, I’d go with Oliver because he’s just flat out been better this year.
Long Man: Chad Gaudin vs. Matt Palmer
Palmer, a career minor league journeyman that finally stuck at age 30, made a few starts early in the season for the Halos (you may remember this game), but moved to the bullpen because a) he sucked (5.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and b) because some of the Angels’ regular starters got healthy. Like Gaudin, who’s been better than anyone could have expected since being acquired from the Padres, Palmer figures to only appear in blowouts or as the last reliever out of the pen in extra inning games.
Both pitchers excel against righties but struggle against lefties, however I’m giving the Yankees get the edge simply because Gaudin strikes out way more guys (8.5 K/9 vs. 5.1). Strikeouts are better than ground outs, especially in the playoffs.
Misc. Relievers: Ervin Santana vs. David Robertson, Al Aceves, Brian Bruney/Damaso Marte
Herein lies a considerable difference between the two bullpens. Beyond the five guys we talked about above, the only other reliever in the Angels bullpen is starter turned reliever for the postseason Ervin Santana (ZOMG why won’t they just pick a role for him already?!?1?). Santana battled an elbow injury early in the season, and was just so-so when he was on the mound. He put 204 runners on base in just 139.2 IP, served up one homer every six innings, and his 47 walks tied his total from 2008, when he threw almost 80 more innings. Santana was better in the final two months of the season (3.95 FIP) against mostly crap competition, but he didn’t even warm up in the ALDS. He appears to be Mike Scioscia’s Plan D, at best.
The Yankees, on the other hand, went with quantity and quality to fill out the rest of their bullpen. Al Aceves was a godsend in May, pitching in every role imaginable. His 1.01 WHIP was second best in the league among pitchers with at least 80 IP, behind only Andrew Bailey of the A’s. David Robertson is a strikeout fiend, with 314 K’s in 226.2 career innings, majors and minors. We’re still not sure whether Marte will remain with the club in the ALCS, or if he’ll be replaced by Bruney because of matchups, but either guy figures to be one of the last options outs of Girardi’s pen. Aceves alone makes this a win for the Yanks, but having Robertson available too is just showing off.
As we saw in the stats above, the Yanks have a clear advantage over the Angels when it comes to the bullpen. The Fightin’ Scioscia’s will rely heavily on Jepsen, Bulger, and Oliver in the middle innings, while Palmer and Santana are break glass in case of emergency guys only. The Yankees have depth, with Joba and Hughes forming a powerful bridge in the late innings. At the very least, Coke has the tools necessary to neutralize Abreu, while Aceves and Robertson are looming should trouble arise at any point before the 7th inning.
The Angels starters completed six innings in nine of the ten games they played the Yankees this year, and they have to hope their starters continue to work deep into the games to minimize the bullpen face time. Otherwise, it’ll just be open season for the Bombers.
Girardi ranks among best bullpen managers
Posted by: | CommentsJoe Girardi might seem to make some odd decisions when choosing relievers, but on the whole he’s done a fine job of managing his bullpen this year. I make this claim not based on stats, but based on what I’ve observed of the situation. Sometimes it seems he gets too cute in a LaRussa-like way, using multiple relievers to get just a few outs, but it works. Despite in April in which the bullpen had a 6.46 ERA, the Yanks pen currently sports a 3.94 ERA, fifth best in the AL. Of the things the Yanks have to worry about, the bullpen doesn’t appear to be one of them.
*If you don’t believe in advanced stats or believe that everything in baseball is self-evident, then you won’t want to continue.
Advanced stats support Girardi’s bullpen management. Jeremy Greenhouse at The Baseball Analysts looks at each team’s bullpen using a number of WPA-based figures: WPA/LI, Clutch, and pLI. The Yankees rank atop the league in Clutch from the bullpen, and up near the top in WPA/LI. In that neat Google Motion chart embedded in the article, you’ll see the Yanks dot hanging out by itself on the right. They’re easily the closest to the ideal position: top right.
Further supporting the argument is pLI, which is the Leverage Index for each player. The relievers with the highest pLI are mostly those with the highest WPA. The higher pLI means that these pitchers have the best chance of picking up WPA, since WPA fluctuates the most in high leverage situations. But because we’re seeing a high WPA, it means that for the most part the Yanks relievers did their job. Mariano Rivera was used in the highest leverage situations, 1.71 pLI, and has the highest WPA. Phil Hughes is second with a 1.43 pLI and a 2.4 WPA. Had these two failed more often, their WPA would not be as high.
Two names appear misplaced on the list: Phil Coke and Al Aceves. Aceves has the fourth highest pLI on the team, 1.07, but has a WPA of 1.92, third best in the bullpen. It would appear that Girardi should move Aceves up into higher leverage situations, and perhaps he would have if not for his late-season role as Joba’s caddy. Because Aceves was facing hitters in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings — sometimes with a run deficit — his pLI dropped. Under normal circumstances, Aceves would move up into higher leverage situations. I expect him to regularly appear in the seventh inning this October.
The other is Phil Coke. It’s hard to get a good read on the rookie lefty’s season. He’s had great stretches and he’s had poor ones. He’s had games where he’s given up six runs, and he’s had appearances where he throws nothing but strikes. The bad appearances have hurt his WPA (as they should), leaving it at 0.88, yet his pLI is 1.29, third highest on the team. Girardi trusts Coke in big spots, and for the most part he comes through. It just seems that when he doesn’t come through, the results are beyond disastrous.
Aside riff:
I’ve always thought that ERA is a terrible indicator of effectiveness for relievers. One bad outing can kill your ERA. See Phil Coke’s blowup against the White Sox. He’s clearly pitched better than his ERA this season. The biggest issue is that relievers work with such small samples. It’s why we see so much volatility from year to year in reliever performances. While WPA is a great narrative tool, I think it can also bring some insight into a reliever’s value. Relievers work in the context of a situation, unlike starters, who help create the context. The game is usually over halfway unfolded once a reliever appears, so he’s mainly pitching in the situation. WPA captures the situation. I’d like to see a bit more work go into this.
Pitching staffs get shortened in the postseason. The Yankees will only need three starters — if they’re willing to start CC in Game 4 of the ALCS on three days’ rest — in the first two rounds. They should also only need three relievers, maybe four. They’ll carry more, but chances are we won’t see pitchers not named CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves get the ball very often, if at all. These are the guys who have performed best for the Yankees this season, and they’re the ones that will decide the team’s fate.
Given the circumstances, Girardi has done a good job not only of distributing the innings out of the pen, but of putting the right pitcher in the right spot. Sometimes he might make the wrong call, and when he does the fan base is quick to jump on him. Those instances tend to stand out in our minds, though, giving them a bit more weight. When we take a step back and look at the season as a whole, Girardi comes out ahead. Thankfully, other than a few lefty-righty matchups, he won’t have to think much about who to pitch and when. The Yanks relievers have done their job of proving it to him this season.
Little chance Bruney makes the postseason roster
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s no wonder the Yankees have shown so much patience with Brian Bruney. Dominant relief pitchers don’t come around that often, and in 2008 and early 2009 Bruney appeared to be just that. He pitched well both before and after a lisfranc injury last season, and opened 2009 with a bang. Two injuries later and he’s just not the same. The Yankees continue to give Bruney chances, but each one is a reminder that this is not the guy who struck out five straight Rays over two games.
Even in August, when he had a 0.87 ERA, Bruney still didn’t look reliable. He only allowed one run over 10.1 innings, but that might have been a string of reliever’s luck. He struck out only five in that span and walked seven. Opponents reached base 37.5 percent of the time. He threw 201 pitches, almost 20 per inning. With peripherals like that, it’s no wonder he’s struggled in September.
This month Bruney has appeared in nine games, the same number as August, though has pitched 4.2 fewer innings. He’s throwing fewer pitches, but not many, around 19 per inning. Opponents get on base 41.4 percent of the time. His strikeout to walks ratio sits at 4:5. The difference is that teams have gotten to him this time around, going deep twice for a .583 slugging percentage.
Over the course of 2009, Bruney has gone from lights out setup man to questionable postseason roster candidate. The Yankees will take only 10 pitchers to the ALDS, and Bruney doesn’t appear to be one of the 10 best on the roster. Can they trust him in a playoff appearance? Certainly not the way he’s pitching now. He’ll have to show considerable improvement in the season’s last 10 games, and even that might not be enough to convince the Yankees to take the chance.
Bryan Hoch examines Bruney’s woes which, the Yankees think, relate to a mechanical issue. There are plenty “I feel good” quotes in the article, but perhaps the most interesting paragraph reads
The question is if the Yankees have enough time to allow Bruney to continue ironing out what he said have been season-long mechanical problems — bad habits on the mound that have plagued him relating to his hip rotation.
That doesn’t sound like an easy problem to fix. Bruney will have a maximum five games to work it out, and even then he’ll likely only get into three or four more before the regular season ends. Some improvement would be encouraging, but would it be enough to put him on the postseason roster? Not quite, I would think. There are certainly 10 more deserving candidates, especially with David Robertson slated to return this weekend.
It’s a shame what happened to Bruney this season. It appeared he was coming into his own, and then we found out he was unavailable for the first game of the first Boston series. It’s been downhill from there. There’s a chance Bruney could recover, but he probably won’t get a real chance again until 2010.
Whither Al Aceves?
Posted by: | CommentsDown just two runs with six outs left at their disposal, the Yankees were certainly in an unfavorable position last night, but one we’ve seen them overcome plenty of times this season. Instead of holding the Halos down and keeping the deficit at two runs, the only-when-losing relief corps of Brian Bruney and Jon Albaladejo allowed the Angels to tack on some insurance runs, essentially putting the game out of reach.
As I said to Ben during the game, where was Al Aceves? As you know, he’s been used as Joba Chamberlain’s personal caddy this month, backing him up when his starts were cut short due to his innings limit. However, Joba started just yesterday, and even if they need someone to soak up innings behind Chad Gaudin tonight, they have Josh Towers, Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Edwar Ramirez, and about a million other guys sitting out in the bullpen. Aceves was well rested, having not pitched in seven days. It just didn’t add up, it was still a winnable game with his team in a funk, but Joe Girardi didn’t put his best foot forward.
Ace is going to be a key cog in the Yankees postseason bullpen; he’s essentially going to be asked to bridge any gap between the starter and Phil Hughes, whether it be one out, one inning, or three innings. The problem is that Aceves hasn’t been used as a reliever much of late, in fact you can say he’s essentially been working on the Joba Rules. He’s made just six appearances in the last month, tossing 13.2 IP with a 3.29 ERA (3.02 FIP) and a .557 OPS against, and he hasn’t thrown in back-to-back days since July 20th & 21st. Only twice in the team’s last 42 games has Aceves come out of the bullpen in the middle of an inning. Ace has been extremely effective when used, although his appearances aren’t come as frequently as they once did.
Now don’t get me wrong, Aceves is a big boy who’s been around and has done the job all year, so surely he knows what he needs to do to keep himself prepared, but there’s a rust factor. How will he take to pitching in back-to-back days after not doing it for two months? What about warming up twice in a game? It’s almost like they need to work him a little like a guy on a minor league rehab assignment, getting him ready to be used whenever and wherever. I just can’t see how you could expect him to go from working two or three innings every five days for over a month to all of a sudden going back to being the uber-middle reliever he once was.
Maybe I’m just crazy and this is a non-issue. What do you think?
The unreliable Brian Bruney
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Small sample sizes can be cruel. Just four, four-and-a-half months ago there was a big chunk of Yankee Universe that thought, that knew Brian Bruney was the answer to the Yanks’ perpetual 8th inning question. After all, the guy had just rattled off an unreal April: 8 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 12 K. In the middle of the month, he had a stretch where he struck out 12 in just 6.2 IP over seven appearances without allowing a baserunner.
But then Bruney got hurt, as a balky throwing elbow landed him on disabled list. He came back about four weeks later, presumably healthy, and fired a perfect inning against the Orioles in what appeared to be the first attempt at easing him back into that 8th inning role. Next thing you know, Bruney’s back on the DL with the same elbow problem because he wasn’t truthful with the organization, telling them he felt good when he really didn’t. Classic meathead syndrome, the guy thought he could pitch through it and still be a positive contributor to the club.
Four weeks after the setback, Bruney returned, this time for good. Except now the Yankees weren’t looking for an 8th inning guy – Phil Hughes took that and ran with it. They didn’t even need a 6th or 7th inning guy really, because Al Aceves had been masterful in the middle innings. Bruney was just another guy in the pen, but if he performed like he had earlier in the season, those high leverage late inning opportunities would eventually fall into his lap.
Except Bruney never returned to his April highs, not even close. Since returning from the DL on June 16th, Bruney’s allowed 41 baserunners in 20.2 IP, giving up five homers in the process. Opponents are hitting .310-.416-.548 off him in that time, so he’s turning everyone into Chase Utley. After a particularly dreadful stretch in July, Bruney didn’t allow a run in 8.2 IP from August 7th to the 31st. The problem is that he handed five inherited runners over to whoever relieved him in that time (three of those five were left in scoring position), and somehow none came around to score. Bruney gets no credit for those scoreless frames, he left a mess that someone else had to cleanup.
Bruney hasn’t struck out at batter since August 11th, seven appearances and six innings ago. His walks were always offset by his high strikeout rate, which coming into this year sat at exactly 9.0 K/9. The velocity is still there, but he’s just not making his pitches these days. He’s a liability whenever he enters a game, but the Yankees have such a large lead in the division (99.96542% chance of making the playoffs) late in the season that they can afford to keep running Bruney out there in an effort to get him back on track.
As it stands now, Bruney is no better than on the playoff roster bubble. There’s no fewer than three righthanders ahead of him on the relief pitcher depth chart, and there’s a distinct possibility he could be left home in October if favor of a long man or an extra lefty reliever. There’s really no need for the team to carry seven relievers in October just to stroke Bruney’s ego, the Rays left Edwin Jackson home in the ALDS and ALCS last year, and he was far more important to Tampa’s team last year than Bruney is to this year’s Yankee club.
Furthermore, with a glut of relief options in the majors and minors, Bruney may not have a spot on next year’s team. He’s out of options and entering his second year of arbitration, and the Yanks may not want to keep a rather expensive, ineffective reliever around when they have kids coming up who at the very least can be equally as unreliable at a fraction of the price. A nontender is always a possibility, but with that kind of power arm you’d think they could get at least something for him, even if it’s a Grade-C prospect. His salary could be prohibitive, though.
Of course, Bruney could render those last two paragraphs moot if he turns it around in the next month. We’ve seen him get hot, and when he’s on a roll he can make batters look silly. Right now though, I cringe whenever I see him walk through the bullpen door.
Photo Credit: Keivom, NY Daily News
