Archive for Death by Bullpen
Unnecessarily pigeonholing relievers
Posted by: | CommentsWhen did this whole 8th inning phenomenon start? When did the Yankees, their fans and anyone associated with the team decide that the 8th inning was of such paramount importance that the team needs one reliever dedicated to the 8th inning and only the 8th inning?
Maybe it started with Joba in 2007, Kyle Farnsworth in 2006, Tom Gordon after the 2004 ALCS or Steve Karsay’s injury in 2003 after a very effective 2002. Maybe it started when Jeff Nelson left the Yanks after 2001 and Mike Stanton followed suit after 2002. No matter the cause, it’s an unnecessary obsession that can limit the Yanks’ flexibility in ways it shouldn’t.
Two bits of news from yesterday’s game and the subsequent post-game interviews reveal the dichotomies of the 8th inning. If ever there was a game for an 8th Inning Guy, yesterday was it. The Yanks had a two-run lead, and the Mariners were about to send their 9-1-2 guys up to the plate. As it happened, these hitters were also R-L-L, and the Yankees, instead of going to Brian Bruney, the anointed 8th Inning Guy, played the match-ups perfectly.
Al Aceves, ace reliever, started the inning. Ronnie Cedeno flew out, and Girardi pulled Aceves for Phil Coke, a lefty who is death on lefties. Coke got Ichiro to ground out and Russell Branyan to strike out. (With that appearance, by the way, lefties are now hitting just .188/.214/.406 with 19 K’s in 70 plate appearances against Coke. Damaso who?)
After the game, though, Girardi was singing a different tune. Per M.A. Mehta:
“He’s our eighth inning guy right now,” Girardi said. “We expect him to pitch better. I know he has not pitched great since he’s come back off the DL. He’s had some good outings and he’s had some tough outings. … He’s had success in that role. He’s struggling a little bit right now.”
“I know he doesn’t have a track record of a Tex or and an Alex or some of the other players that we have,” Girardi added. “But we didn’t panic with them. And we’re not going to panic with Brian Bruney. Obviously, you do have to perform and we expect you to perform at a high level. If you don’t, you do make adjustments.”
Girardi also balked at the notion that defining roles to his relievers can be counterproductive. He said he preferred giving his bullpen crew specific roles rather than riding the hot hand. “When guys have defined roles, they know when they’re going to pitch,” Girardi said. “And they can start preparing mentally a little bit earlier. I think that helps them. The other thing that does is that I think it keeps you from wearing one guy out. A lot of times if you have a guy who’s pitching extremely well, all of a sudden, you’ve used him five out of six days … And then you start wearing the guy out. And then he starts going backwards.”
Got all that? Basically, Girardi is willing to hand the 8th inning role because he’s “had success in that role” and because it’s important for relievers to have overly defined roles so they can mentally prepare to pitch when their inning comes around. Why though? I don’t believe these relievers benefit psychologically from the regimented inning-by-inning breakdown Girardi is trying to give. Rather, the reliever used should depend upon the situation.
Right now, the Yankees have four relievers that have been lights out for weeks. Obviously, Mariano is the go-to guy for saves and tight situations late in the 8th. After him though, Phil Coke, Al Aceves, Phil Hughes and Brian Bruney have all shown the ability to get key outs late in the game. Coke matches up against lefties; Bruney and Aceves against righties; and Hughes against everyone these days. Let the game determine the reliever. Let the pitcher feeling good that day take the innings and let these relievers know that, late in a game, they will be called upon when the situation warrants it. There’s no need to lock down the 8th inning as though it’s more important than the other eight innings combined.
Addendum by Joe: …because I had a whole post written on this same topic, referencing the same post, and didn’t want to waste it.
The trouble with specialization is that it calls for more frequent pitching changes. Bullpens are volatile. Therefore, every time the manager calls on a new reliever he’s increasing the chances he runs into someone who isn’t having a good night. Meanwhile, the guy who was successful the previous inning (or batter) languishes on the bench. We saw this in action on Tuesday. Phil Hughes mowed down the Mariners with nine pitches, but Girardi went to Bruney anyway. Unfortunately, Bruney was not having a good night.
With both Al Aceves and Phil Hughes capable of throwing multiple innings out of the bullpen, the Yankees are in a unique position to redefine bullpen usage patterns. They need not fall into the traps of multiple reliever usage, because they have a crop of quality starters and a capable corps in the bullpen. Why not use this opportunity to change the game?
In games like last night, where the starter goes seven innings and leaves with a lead, perhaps the traditional setup man to closer paradigm makes sense. With only two innings left and Mo ready for the ninth, a one-inning guy can slot into the eighth. That’s where Bruney could shine. Starter goes seven, then onto Bruney and Mo to ice it. However, it’s a different story when the starter goes six or fewer.
On Saturday, Chien-Ming Wang will take the mound again. There’s little to no chance he can go more than six innings. This leaves an opening for a longer relief stint. Why not use Hughes for two there, laying the bridge for Mo? Aceves could do the job as well. That way you’re sticking with just one reliever. If he’s good you can just leave him in there and avoid the risk of going to another guy, who might not pitch as well as the original.
If the starter exits the game before the seventh and the team has a number of good pitchers who can throw multiple innings, why take the risk of going inning-by-inning? It seems to me a better idea to stick with the guy who’s pitching well.
The new and improved bullpen
Posted by: | Comments
When the Yankees welcome setup man Brian Bruney back later today, it will be the first time they can go into a game knowing who will pitch the 8th inning in a close game in nearly two months. Well, I guess CC Sabathia counts every five days, but I digress. As much of an eyesore as the bullpen has been this season, Tyler Kepner points out that the Yankee relievers have quietly pulled it together in June thanks to the work of four men: David Robertson, Phil Hughes, Phil Coke and Al Aceves. They’ve combined to allow just 25 baserunners and 5 earned runs in 23 innings this month, striking out 23. Of those four, only Coke broke camp with the team out of Spring Training.
As I was wont to point out in April, the bullpen at the end of the year will look nothing like the bullpen that started it. Edwar Ramirez and Jon Albaladejo have been banished to the minor leagues in favor of Robertson and Hughes, kids with upside that can actually put a fastball by a hitter once in a while. Jose Veras has gone from trusted setup man to janitor (get it, mop up man? haha … okay fine I stole that one from Joe). Damaso Marte’s injury thrust Al Aceves into high leverage spots, and Brett Tomko has been serviceable while keeping Bruney’s seat warm (before Friday’s meltdown he had a 2.53 ERA). As of this very moment, only three members of the Opening Day bullpen are still on the active roster: Mariano Rivera, Phil Coke, and the aforementioned Mr. Veras.
This isn’t anything new either. Last year’s Opening Day bullpen consisted of guys like Albaladejo, Billy Traber, LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth and Ross Ohlendorf. By the time September call-ups rolled around, Mo and Bruney were the only relievers left standing from the Opening Day squad. The year before that you had Mike Myers and Scott Proctor and Sean Henn start the year just beyond the right left-centerfield fence, none of them lasting the season. That’s the beauty of not spending big money on volatile relievers: flexibility.
The 2009 bullpen has gotten progressively better each month as bodies were shifted in and out until the right mix was found. They went from a 6.46 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in April to 4.04 & 1.39 in May to 3.29 & 1.17 in June. With Brian Bruney coming back today, expect those June numbers to get even better, because frankly the dude’s been money since the start of last season. Yeah yeah yeah I know it’s only 43.1 IP with two pretty serious injuries mixed in, but in those 43.1 innings he’s allowed just 21 hits and struck out 46. He also cut his walk rate down to 3.7 BB/9, hardly eye popping, but worlds better than the 6.9 mark he put up in his three seasons prior to that.
As Joe pointed out yesterday, one of the current members of the bullpen will go bye bye to make room for Bruney. Bryan Hoch confirmed with Joe Girardi yesterday that will in fact be a pitcher-for-pitcher move, so any worries about the 13-man pitching staff should end. It would be absurd to option David Robertson given his work during his latest call-up (13.5 K/9, .472 OPS, SSS warning), and such a move would have me seriously questioning the front office’s desire to field the best team. That leaves Tomko and Veras as the two candidates to go, and as bad as he’s looked at times, Veras is ten years younger than Tomko. It really doesn’t matter who they keep and who they cut, because whichever guy stays will be working super low leverage mop up innings anyway. Keep Veras, he’s younger and has a better arm.
Earlier this season Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi repeated time and time again that they would ride it out and see if the bullpen corrects itself before doing anything drastic. While no one would be opposed to adding a Huston Street at the right price, the relief corps seem to finally be headed down the path towards effectiveness.
Photo Credit: Jarrett Baker, Getty Images
Bruney to Trenton as bullpen moves loom
Posted by: | CommentsAfter Joba Chamberlain’s short four-inning appearance yesterday, the Yankees went to Brett Tomko in an effort to piece together the game’s final 15 outs. Tomko promptly allowed the first five batters he faced to reach and was yanked when he walked another with two outs in the inning. Meanwhile, the Yankees announced that Brian Bruney would make a rehab appearance in Trenton today. It sounds as though Bruney will need just one appearance to be game-ready, and the Yanks may be able to activate him as soon as Tuesday. While the Yankees could option David Robertson back to Scranton, if Brett Tomko is still around come the Nationals series, I will be both surprised and annoyed.
The Yankees need bullpen help now. While Damaso Marte — recipient of a very ill-advised three-year deal this past winter — heads south for a visit with James Andrews, Burney is the best internal candidate. The right roster move at to complement his return from the DL will involve the departure of either Tomko or Jose Veras, and Bruney’s return should go a long way toward alleviating our late-inning concerns.
An SOS from the bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsAnyone reading this post of mine should first read Joe’s very thorough and level-headed recap of last night’s Yankee disaster. While I was busy cursing at the TV and calling for Joe Girardi’s head, Joe managed to talk me down.
That is, until Joe Girardi dared to rationalize his decision to have Mariano Rivera. Kim Jones asked him if he considered using Rivera, and Girardi replied: “I was going to if the situation arose, but the situation did not arise.” Rivera, by the way, is still sitting in the Fenway bullpen, waiting for the situation to arise.
Later, Girardi said that he would have used Rivera for four outs but not five or six. To me, that makes no sense. Rivera would have thrown an extra seven or eight pitches to get outs five and six. Once he enters the game for a save longer than one inning, he has to warm up twice anyway. So the Yanks should maximize the outs they get for him. (Related: I dread the day Mariano Rivera isn’t around. It’s coming up on us rather quickly.)
Anyway, after the game, my sister and I were having it out on G-Chat, and apparently, she too could manage the Yanks. Victoria said:
I wanted Rivera to pitch 6 outs immediately when there were two on and no out. Obviously, Rivera…It was SO. OBVIOUS. It really disturbs me that i keep thinking of the obvious things to do that aren’t done. I’m a stupid little girl. No one’s even telling me. I’m thinking of them all by myself. I really should manage the team!!!! Or, like, someone’s senile grandmother.
Someone’s senile grandmother indeed.
Our half-jokes aside, this problem stretches back beyond Joe Girardi’s unwillingness to learn from his previous high leverage mistakes. When push came to shove tonight, when CC Sabathia was at 120 pitches, when the game was on the line, the Yankees had no one in the bullpen outside of Mo upon whom they could rely to get outs. Gone are the days of Graeme Lloyd, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton or even Steve Karsay and, yes, Tom Gordon. If the starters don’t go eight, the Yankees have to hold their collective breaths and pray for the best.
Last night, the game was Al Aceves’ to lose. He was tossed into a no-win situation and walked away with, well, no win. Phil Coke helped out as well. Tonight against the Mets, it might be Jose Veras’ turn to inherit some less-than-optimal situation or maybe David Robertson and Brett Tomko get the call. I’m not inspiring too much confidence, right?
The Yankees of course don’t want to be in this position. The best laid plans had Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte splitting the eighth inning/set-up duties. Both have missed most of the last six weeks. While Bruney should be back next week, Marte is still a few weeks away, and we don’t know how effective he’ll be. Even just getting back one would be enough. With Bruney, last night’s game takes on a completely different tone when Sabathia leaves.
But outside of Bruney, the Yankees need bullpen help. Last month, Joe pondered the potential relief help. He examined Chad Qualls, Jose Valverde, Huston Street and Russ Springer. Today, Ken Rosenthal says those are exactly the names under consideration by the Yankee brass, and officials have already expressed interest in Huston Street.
It never makes sense to give up much for a reliever. They break down; they lose their ability to get outs; they are replaceable. But the Yankees’ relief corps need some relief right now. With the draft behind us and the trade deadline seven weeks away, the Yankees will kick the tires on a whole bunch of relievers. Who wins Yankee Bullpen Roulette is anyone’s guess, but it better be someone who can throw strikes and get outs. For better or, in my opinion, for worse, Rivera won’t be in for those six-out saves the Yankees need so desperately.
Ever try to pitch the ninth inning with bile in your throat?
Posted by: | CommentsThe ninth inning on Saturday was not pretty. Mariano Rivera entered a tie game, and promptly let the Rays hit him every which way, surrendering four runs (three earned) in a losing effort. This, of course, elicited three different responses. First, he’s old and he’s just no the same Mo. Second, he never pitches as well in non-save situations. Third, he’s fine and this kind of thing is bound to happen. Turns out that none were right (though the third group was closest).
Rivera was not fine. According to a teammate, as we learn from Yahoo’s Dave Brown, Mo was under the weather before the game.
For several hours before Rivera took the ball Saturday afternoon in that tie game, he’d suffered with a stomach ailment that brought aches and repeated vomiting, according to one Yankee. Rivera had rolled off the trainer’s table, where he’d hoped to sleep it off, and into the bullpen in the eighth inning, when he began to warm up.
I think that wording is a bit off. He didn’t suffer the stomach ailment before he took the ball. Anyone who’s had a stomach bug — and that’s everybody here — knows it doesn’t just go away. They don’t call it a 24-hour bug for nothing. Mo pitched anyway, and we all saw the results.
Why didn’t we hear about this before? Because Mo refused to make it an excuse. Not even after his success on Sunday did he mention his Saturday ailment. This is the kind of professionalism we’ve come to expect of Mo. He never says no when the manager comes calling, even if he’s just upchucked his lunch. True, it cost the Yanks on Saturday (when Phil Hughes could have just as easily pitched), but in the long run it’s an admirable trait, I think, to take the ball when asked and not make excuses afterward.
An eighth inning solution: Alfredo Aceves
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yankees put together a hot May, the team’s fans have watched Alfredo Aceves blossom into a very effective and useful piece in the bullpen. While he has made just nine appearances, he has shown poise and ability that could provide the shaky Yanks’ pen with a solid piece.
On the season, Aceves has hurled 19.2 innings over those nine appearances. He has allowed 16 hits and has walked just three while striking out 18. He is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA, and opponents are hitting .219/.256/.342 off him. While his BABIP allowed is .259, lower than the average and thus suggesting that opponents may hit him better in the future, he has limited the damage by throwing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes. It’s amazing what confidence and good stuff can do for a reliever
Over the last few weeks, we’ve explored the various roles of Alfredo Aceves. Rebecca wrote a guest post suggesting that he could be the next Ramiro Mendoza, an unheralded but valuable member of the Yankee championship teams, and the Yankees have deployed Aceves as such. Six of his nine appearances have been of the multiple inning variety. The other three were either in extra innings or in the 9th inning of what was then an 11-0 blowup.
Meanwhile, the infamous Eighth Inning debate rages on in the Yankee Universe. More important than any of the other eight innings, the eighth inning has been a thorn in the Yankees’ side since the end of Steve Karsay’s career. (Ed. Note: Hyperbole.) As the Yanks remain committed, as they should be, to keeping Joba in the rotation and as Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte work their ways back from injuries, the Yanks have struggled to build a proper bridge to Mariano. Jose Veras is a nightmare; Phil Coke hasn’t been able to get the job done. You know the story.
Today, in a very well-researched piece that relies upon some advanced bullpen metrics not often seen among the Yankee beat writers, Marc Carig proposes Alfredo Aceves for the eighth inning. Aceves, notes Carig, is second among team relievers in WXRL or expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, and he has excelled so far in high-leverage situations. Noting that the analysis is subject to a small sample size warning, Carig concludes:
But Aceves has many of qualities typically associated with good set-up men, specifically impeccable command. And though he’s not overpowering with his fastball, Aceves can throw any pitch at any time, making him equally effective against lefties and righties.
To me, it only makes sense to reward Aceves by having him work in these high-leverage situations as much as possible. And the only way for the Yankees to do that is to scrap the idea of using him as a jack-of-all-trades reliever.
Using Aceves for multiple innings essentially wastes him in non-essential situations that can be worked by lesser relievers. What’s worse, multiple inning stints would mean at times that Aceves would have to rest as much as two days between appearances.
He’s much too valuable for that.
I certainly see Carig’s point, and he makes a very compelling case for the move. Yet, as I believe that Mariano Rivera should not be saved for a save situation that may never come and should be used in the highest leverage situations late in games, I don’t think the Yankees need to limit their use of Aceves to just the eighth inning.
What they have in Aceves is a versatile reliever who could pitch the eighth in close games and can prevent other games from getting out of hand. He can throw multiple innings on back-to-back days and can provide flexibility in a bullpen short on that very trait. There is no need to mess with that, and Joe Girardi seems to agree.
“You could think about it but I do like the flexibility he gives us,” Girardi said. “And with a couple of young starters that we have, sometimes you need a little bit of length out of your guys.”
Rethinking bullpen usage patterns
Posted by: | CommentsAfter watching Chien-Ming Wang pitch out of the bullpen yesterday, I’ve decided I like him out there. Well, not him specifically, but I definitely like that type of reliever. It’s one reason Al Aceves can be valuable to the Yankees this season: the ability to pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen. The problem with having just Aceves, though, is that if he pitches three innings, as he did Friday night, he’s not available for a couple of days. So when, two days later, the Yanks need another long relief appearance, it’s nice to have a guy like Wang to fill that role.
It’s become standard practice for baseball teams to carry seven relievers on top of their five starters. This leaves the bench somewhat depleted, but for a team like the Yankees which normally has a stellar one through nine, it’s not much of an issue. That doesn’t meant that the way they construct the bullpen is right, though. In fact, with seven guys sitting out in the pen it might be time to rethink how they pick the relievers on the staff.
The general preference seems to be filling the pen with a bunch of one-inning, or even one-batter, guys. Sometimes they’ll go two, but for the most part you see a new reliever every inning after the starter exits unless he’s remarkably efficient, or the manager wants to play match-ups. But is playing match-ups necessarily the right move? After all, baseball is a game based on randomness. Anything can happen at any given time, and so playing lefty-lefty sometimes doesn’t work out. The percentages are supposedly in the pitcher’s favor, but probability, especially in an environment like baseball, isn’t exactly like flipping a coin.
What I’m getting at is the question of whether there’s an opportunity to capitalize in the bullpen. Start after start, we see starters exiting after six innings. That means three relievers between the starter and the end. Sometimes one of those relievers is Mariano, but what about those other two? Sure, you could have a lights-out eighth inning guy, but he can’t pitch every day. That, in fact, is one of my criticisms of Joe Torre’s “three-headed monster” schemes. If starters aren’t pitching past the sixth, you can’t just toss Quantrill-Gordon-Rivera every day. Torre did, and we saw the results at the end of the season.
What if the Yankees decided to use Aceves and one more designated long-man to fill multiple innings out of the pen? This would cost just two roster spots, leaving four more non-Mo spots in the pen. That goes to one-inning, high percentages guys. Think Bruney, Marte, Coke and eventually Melancon. So when A.J. goes six innings one day, Aceves can come in and finish the start. If there’s a one-run lead in the ninth Mo can come on. If he’s not available, Aceves can just finish what he startedrelieved.
If on the next night the starter can only go six, then you have the second long man to fill in. Again, Mo can pitch the ninth in a close game, or the long reliever can just finish it out, as he would the third inning of any start. It’s possible, in fact, that on these two consecutive games none of the one-inning relievers gets the ball. The long reliever is the guy who can take the game to the end (or, again, Mo can finish it).
This works well with the Yankees, who have a number of pitchers who can go deep into games. Sometimes CC will just finish what he started. Others he’ll leave only one or two innings left for the bullpen. This is where the one-inning guys fit in. When CC, A.J., and Andy go seven or eight, they can each pitch an inning in relief. Or, gasp, one could pitch two innings.
A while back, Phil Coke spoke about the bullpen not having defined roles. Well, this would shore up that problem nicely. Players A and B are long men. Players C, D, and E are one-inning guys. Player F is a LOOGY. Mo is Mo. Roles defined.
One of the biggest questions raised here would be of where to find a second long man. There are 18 weeks left in the season, not counting the All-Star week. If you can give one of the long men six innings a week (two appearances of three innings or three appearances of two innings), that comes out to 108 innings. They Yankees could, if they could find a way to guarantee he gets to his innings goals, slot Phil Hughes into that spot. It would allow him multiple-innigns work, keep him at the major league level, and also make him available, given proper notice of course, for spot starts, which would further increase his innings totals.
This idea is very rough and not even half-baked. It’s something I thought of while watching Wang pitch in relief of Hughes today. I’m also not married to relegating Hughes to this role. In any case, it seems like a creative way to utilize the team’s pitching surplus. Create a role called “finisher.” That reliever is called upon to pitch multiple innings and finish games. And, as always, Mo can finish the tight ones. Beyond getting more guys more innings, it is also a way to keep the one-inning guys fresh.
(Plus, if they can slot two quality guys like Hughes and Aceves into the long roles, they might not even need to carry 12 pitchers. If those guys are pitching every other or every third game and the starters are taking it to the seventh or eighth in the rest, it would seem the team could get by with just six guys in the bullpen. As an aside, it would also make sense to have a option-able guy on the bench so that the team could call up another reliever in case of emergency.)
How could we expand upon and refine this idea so it would work for the Yanks this year? The idea is to limit the usage of the crappy relievers, maximize the innings of the guys who are pitching well, and get guys like Hughes and Joba to their innings totals. It would seem that letting them go longer in the pen would be one solution. So how can the Yanks make it work?
With Bruney down, Yanks might seek bullpen help
Posted by: | CommentsThe news flashed at the bottom of my browser, courtesy of Bryan Hoch’s Twitter feed: “Bruney to see Dr. James Andrews Wednesday. When has that ever been good news?” Unless you’re John Smoltz, who apparently visits Dr. Andrews just because, it is most certainly bad news.
Bruney was again placed on the 15-day DL yesterday, just a week — and one appearance — after the Yankees activated him. The as-of-now unknown nature of the injury coupled with the Andrews visit does not bode well for the Yanks’ eighth-inning man. In fact, the team would do best to assume Bruney won’t pitch again this year and take it as a bonus if he does.
This is a shame, considering Bruney appeared poised for a steady spot in the eighth inning. With fellow setup man Damaso Marte also out, the Yanks have had to piece together relief outings for most of May. Thankfully the rotation has stepped up and has pitched deeper into games this month, thereby placing lesser burden on the pen. The starters can’t go seven or eight every time out, though, and when they exit, it might well be a close game. The Yanks are going to need a few arms who can put up a good share of scoreless innings and get the ball to Mo in the ninth.
Chances are they’ll evaluate or reevaluate in-house options before turning to other clubs for a potential deal. David Robertson is already on his way to Texas to take Bruney’s place, and he’ll get every shot to prove he can stay in the bigs. Mark Melancon is likely right behind him and will certainly get a look before the Yanks explore the market. Jon Albaladejo could get another shot, and then there are the guys already on the roster: Coke, Tomko, Veras, Aceves. The Yankees will take inventory of all these pitchers.
What they seek, though, is a reliable bridge to Mo. Among the aforementioned options, it’s unlikely they’ll see someone who can get it done consistently. Whether it’s due to wildness like Veras or inexperience like Melancon, the Yanks can’t bank on one or two of their current guys stepping into the primary setup role. Marte should be able to once he comes back, but even then the Yanks could use some help.
The only place to turn, then, is to the trade market (that is, unless you want to see what Mike Timlin can do, though I’m sure the Yanks front office does not). The Yanks probably won’t start seriously looking at the market for a few weeks, first because they want to evaluate the talent on hand, and second because few teams are willing to admit they’re out of it. This leads us to the biggest problem in finding a good reliever on the trade market.
The teams most willing to trade good players during the season are typically those who are out of contention. Those teams, unfortunately, tend to have a lot of crap in the bullpen. The Nationals, who have no chance of competing this year, basically fired their entire pen earlier this month. Even though they’d probably like to trade a vet or two for prospects, they don’t have a reliever the Yanks would covet. Even if they did, it’s improbable they’d part with such an arm. Ditto the Rockies. Unless they’re completely punting the season, they can’t afford to trade one of their only good bullpen arms.
Since it’s unlikely a contending team would dish a reliable bullpen arm, the Yanks have limited options. Here’s a short list of guys they could possibly target come late June or July. The price to acquire each, of course, remains up in the air. Suffice it to say that none will come cheap.
Chad Qualls. The D’Backs are 10.5 games behind the Dodgers right now and are playing like absolute crap. Felipe Lopez, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton are the only guys hitting anything right now. Their pitching isn’t much better, as the team blew a 7-0 lead yesterday to lose 9-7. Yet they have a few serviceable bullpen arms. Two of them they’d surely like to hang onto: 27-year-old Tony Pena and 25-year-old Juan Gutierrez. They’d probably trade Jon Rauch and his 6.27 ERA, but do the Yanks want him? He pitched well with Washington for the past few years, but has been terrible since the trade to Arizona. Maybe a change of scenery rejuvenates him.
Still, of that whole crop the Yankees would probably prefer Chad Qualls. He did blow the save yesterday, but before that he had a 3.32 ERA in 19 innings, striking out 22 to just four walks. He’s also a groundball guy, extremely so this year, though he’ll probably even out to his career average of 1.48. Not bad by any means, especially from a guy who strikes out nearly a batter an inning. Qualls won’t come cheap, not by any stretch. The Diamondbacks have plenty of needs, though, so perhaps the teams can match up yet.
Jose Valverde. The Astros are currently in last place, but as we learned last year owner Drayton McLane doesn’t like to give up on the season. Guys like Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Roy Oswalt are positively untouchable, but if Houston continues its poor play they could certainly make some other players available. Valverde is a prime candidate because he’ll be a free agent after the season and will more than likely price himself beyond the Astros’ range. He’s made just eight appearances this year and is currently on the DL with a calf injury, which does set off a red flag. If he can come back and pitch like he did last year, or even in 2007, the Yanks might show some interest. First he has to come back and show he’s healthy, so the Yanks won’t even kick the tires until a much later date. The Astros will certainly listen, as they’d probably like to foist the remainder of his $8 million salary onto another team.
Russ Springer. He’s 40 and is sporting a 5.19 ERA. So why Springer? He’s been very good over the past three years. Yet at 40, he might be over the hill. His groundball percentage is down from the past few years, and his FIP is pretty much in line with his ERA. Perhaps he’d do better in the winning environment in New York. But something tells me the Yanks will go with what they’ve got rather than trade for Springer.
Huston Street. He went to Colorado in the Matt Holliday deal, and now he’s closing for a last place team. Not that he’s doing a bad job of it. He’s still just 25 years old, which is hard to believe considering he’s a college guy. The Rockies might have some longer term plans for Street, making it tougher to acquire him. Do the Yanks want to give up serious prospects for a guy like Street? Would he be worth a Zack McAllister? Probably not. It depends, I suppose, on how dire the bullpen situation becomes.
Looking at the lower-end teams, this is about it. What the Yanks seek is an upgrade over the guys they have, and a look through these limited bullpens provides few answers. Sure, they could look to a guy like John Grabow, but is he really a better option late in games than the guys the Yanks currently have on their roster? No. What they need is a clear upgrade, or else someone already on the team to step up. That won’t be an easy task, especially at this point in the season.
A final note: I beg of you, please, if this site means anything to you, please do not turn the comments section into a Joba to the bullpen argument. You might think that’s the best solution, and that’s fine, even though everyone knows that a starter is more valuable than a reliever. I implore you, though, to save it for another bullpen thread. We’ve had it a billion times before, and I just don’t want to wake up to the same old-same old in the comments. It’s old, it’s tired, Joba is doing quite well on his way to being a top-line starter, so please, let it be for now.
That closer mentality
Posted by: | CommentsOne of my baseball pet peeves right now is bullpen use. While Joe Girardi has often been the target of my ire, this disease infects Major League managers everywhere, and as Joe noted to me earlier this week, Girardi isn’t doing anything another manager wouldn’t be doing.
The issue is this: If a team has a small lead in the 8th and their opponents’ 3-4-5 hitters are due up, I believe a team should use its best reliever in that spot. Generally, that would mean turning to the closer. The closer would then probably not pitch the 9th and not receive a save in the box score. Managers, however, are loath to follow this path. Some deploy their closers for saves longer than three outs, but many turn to the set-up men to get through the 8th regardless of who that lesser reliever has to face.
From a pure leverage situation, my method, the one post-save-rule baseball traditionalists object to, seems like a sounder strategy. After all, if the lesser relievers give up the lead to the heart of the order, the best reliever can’t make it into the game, and as Yankee fans saw after Jeff Weaver’s 2003 World Series appearance, it hurts to lose without using the team’s best bullpen weapon.
Earlier this week, I got to see some of my theory play itself out in a rather unorthodox way. After three very close games against the Twins, the Yankees did not have Mariano Rivera available when a save situation presented itself. With Brian Bruney still shelved, Joe Girardi turned to Phil Coke to get his first Major League save.
With a two-run run lead and the Twins’ 5-6-7 hitters due up, Coke should have been able to breeze through the 9th. He couldn’t. He gave up a run on two walks, and it took a visit from his manager and two from his catcher to get him through the inning.
After the game, Coke spoke with Marc Carig about pitching in a high-pressure situation in the 9th. “I was trying to play mind games with myself rather than think ‘oh God, where’s Enter Sandman?’” Coke said. “It just seemed like everything was way more amplified.”
Carig’s piece goes more in-depth about what the reporter calls Coke’s harrowing 9th inning experience. By the end of the game, an exhausted Coke had one phrase to sum up his night as the Yanks’ closer. “I’m completely and totally gassed,” he said.
So maybe Coke’s experience should teach me something about the bullpen. Maybe there is something to that closer mentality and having a bullpen with set roles. Maybe Coke is more focused and less bothered by the pressure in the 7th and 8th innings, and maybe he wouldn’t handle the 9th inning with the grace and aplomb of Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner or the emotional and demonstrative approaches of Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez. Or maybe he’s just more cerebral and concerned about his role than the vast majority of other relievers.
Much like the Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny, I didn’t believe in Closer Mentality before reading this piece. After all, it’s just another inning with three outs to it. But if the players believe it and live it out through adrenaline and nerves, maybe those of us watching and analyzing the games should too.
Wanted: Outs from the bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsAs Jonathan Albaladejo nearly gave the game away in the 8th inning yesterday, I was sitting in Yankee Stadium, apoplectic at the Yanks’ reliever’s inability to throw strikes. After striking out Jason Kubel, a good hitter, in the 7th, Albaladejo lost it. He walked Michael Cuddyer, allowed a first-pitch single to the weak-hitting Carlos Gomez and then walked Nick Punto, the Twins’ number nine hitter who is batting just .200/.304/.221 this season.
With one out and the bases loaded, Brett Tomko came in, and as I cringed in my seat, I e-mailed Joe. “I can’t deal with Girardi’s bullpen management. It’s awful,” I said. Joe came back to rightly defend the Yanks’ skipper: “He’s working with nothing. I have no problem with the moves he’s made today.”
In hindsight, Joe was, of course, right. The Yanks didn’t have Phil Coke available, and bringing in Edwar Ramirez or Jose Veras would make just as little sense as bringing in Tomko. The Yanks escaped that bases loaded situation thanks to an amazing play by Mark Teixeira at first base, and the pen lived to see another day.
Following yesterday’s walk-off win, the Yanks’ pen now ranks 12th in the AL in ERA. The team’s relievers have thrown 114.2 innings and have allowed 115 hits while waking 58. That’s a WHIP of 1.51. The relievers’ 108 strikeouts are impressive, but the 25 home runs allowed tops the American League. With Boston’s pen leading the AL, it’s no stretch to say that the Yanks’ bullpen is responsible for the team’s third-place showing right now.
Over the weekend, Peter Gammons dropped another one of his notes column, and in it, he briefly mentions the Yanks as bullpen buyers. I don’t need to be Peter Gammons to know that, but the ESPN scribe tosses out some potential targets for those teams looking for bullpen help. He writes:
The Dodgers are on the prowl for relievers; so are the Indians, Yankees and Twins. But the teams holding pitchers expected to be available believe the market will only get increasingly bullish. And few teams are ready to throw up white towels.
Among the list of relievers expected to be available are Houston’s Jose Valverde, Colorado’s Huston Street, Oakland’s Russ Springer, Pittsburgh’s John Grabow and Baltimore’s Danys Baez. Boston might be willing to move Manny Delcarmen, who might be able to close in the National League, but they’d trade him only for a significant bat.
If those pitchers make up the bulk of the relief market and those teams are going to be “increasingly bullish,” I shudder for the future of any potential bullpen trades. Last year, the Yanks shipped Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Jose Tabata, and Dan McCutchen to the Pirates for what was then the best bat on the market and the best lefty reliever. Based on Gammons’ early report, it sounds as though it will cost just as much this year to land a decent pen arm.
Of those Gammons mentions, only Baez and Street are at all appealing. Grabow is struggling in Pittsburgh right now; Russ Springer is old enough to have played on the same team as Matt Nokes and Andy Stankiewicz; Jose Valverde is a ticking time bomb on the mound. Baez is having a decent season after a few bad years, and Street can pitch in the AL when healthy. As the Rockies paid an arm and a leg for him, he’ll cost as much at or near the deadline.
In the end, then, I guess we’re going to war, for now, with the bullpen we have and not the bullpen we want. I’m sure David Robertson and Mark Melancon will get second or third cracks at it. However, we shouldn’t underestimate the importance of Brian Bruney. If he returns healthy and effective this week, that might just be the push the Yanks need to shore up the ends of their games.




