Death by Bullpen Archives - Page 3 of 49

The Yankees and Aaron Boone are being rewarded for their patience with Dellin Betances

June 12, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

If nothing else, Aaron Boone has shown he is relentlessly positive in his few short months as a big league manager. He enjoys wins and seems to quickly turn the page on losses, which are good managerial traits. The Yankees seem loose, they look like they’re having fun, and they’re winning lots of baseball games. The first few months of the Aaron Boone era have gone very well.

Boone has also shown that he has his players’ backs at all times, even when everyone else is throwing a dude under the bus. There is no better example of this than Dellin Betances. Betances completely lost the strike zone late last year and was unusable in the postseason. Then Dellin gave up a home run in his first appearance this season, and the second time out Kevin Pillar stole his way around the bases. It was ugly.

Many fans were ready to run Betances out of town. Saw it with my own eyes on social media and our comments. Boone? Boone stuck with Dellin the entire time. “We’ll continue to work with him, continue to believe in him, and continue to need him in big situations,” said Boone after the ugliness of the opening series in Toronto. It was easy to laugh at that given what was happening on the field, but Boone meant it.

Fast-forward to June, and now Betances has reestablished himself as the Eighth Inning Guy™ and is once again a dominant setup man. The 3.54 ERA leaves something to be desired, but, in 24 games since that opening series in Toronto, Betances has a 2.88 ERA (1.87 FIP) with 44.6% strikeouts, 9.9% walks, and 51.1% ground balls. He struck out the side on eleven pitches Saturday and you can see his confidence is back. The swagger is back.

“That’s probably the best I’ve felt … ever,” said Betances to Randy Miller following Saturday’s game. “I think my fastball is good, my breaking ball is good, and I’ve said it a couple times already: Even when things weren’t going as good (in April) when I was giving up a couple runs, it’s probably the best I’ve felt in a while.”

Betances credited bullpen coach Mike Harkey for helping spur on the turnaround — “Harkey is a guy who I rely on and I try to repeat everything that he tells me to do when I’m out there. I think I’ve been listening a little more,” he said — and chalked it up to improved fastball command, fewer breaking balls, and a better game plan.

“I felt like earlier on I probably wasn’t throwing my fastball as good command wise,” he said. “… At times I was throwing too many breaking balls. I think I’m doing a better job of mixing my pitches and having a better game plan and kind of trusting everything I have … Earlier in the year I felt like I was going out there and just throwing anything. My game plan wasn’t as good.”

There is no mystery with Dellin. He’s a fastball/curveball pitcher and, for a long time, it has been basically a 50/50 split. This all predates the team’s anti-fastball philosophy too. Betances was curveball heavy long before it was cool to be curveball heavy. His pitch usage over the years:

Two things stand out to me so far this season. One, Betances is throwing more strikes. I mean, duh. He’s thrown 51.1% of his pitches in the zone this year, up from 46.7% last year and 45.0% the year before. The MLB average is 48.0%. And two, more pitches in the zone means hitters have to actually swing against Betances. Last year he was so wild they stopped swinging and let Dellin work himself into trouble. That is no longer the case.

It sounds obvious — and it is — but gosh, throwing strikes makes a world of difference, especially for a dude like Betances. His stuff is so good that the hitter is on the defensive even in non-two-strike counts. How many times have we seen hitters buckle at the curveball and swing late on the fastball? When he’s right, Dellin can make hitters do funny looking things at the plate, and we’ve seen hitters do more funny looking things lately.

With Betances, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop, especially these last two years. We’ve seen him do the “great early in the season and bad late in the season” thing multiples times now, and it is entirely possible he’ll do it again. There’s not much else we can do other than wait and see how the season plays out. I know two things though. One, Betances has been awesome lately and he’s helping the Yankees win games. Good Betances is really good.

And two, if Dellin were as much of a headcase and as mentally weak as so many people seem to think, he wouldn’t have rebounded from last year to be this good again. The headcase and mentally weak stuff is straight garbage. Lazy trope by those unwilling to look for a real answer. Betances has a history of mechanical issues and control problems who had mechanical issues and control problems last year. And so far this year, he’s fixed whatever ailed him, thanks in part to the team’s patience.

Jonathan Holder has done enough to earn a spot in the bullpen even after Adam Warren returns

May 31, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last night Adam Warren made his second minor league rehab appearance since going down with a lat injury last month, throwing three scoreless innings with Double-A Trenton. His first rehab outing with Triple-A Scranton a few days ago did not go well at all. Warren walked two and hit two, and allowed four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Terrible outing, but he felt good physically, and that’s all that matters during a rehab assignment.

“He came out of it feeling fine,” said Aaron Boone to George King following Warren’s first rehab game. “No giant red flags physically speaking, so that is good. Hopefully get better results next time out but nothing too alarming.”

Whenever Warren does return — following yesterday’s game Boone made it sound like Warren could be back at some point within the next week — the Yankees will have to squeeze him into their eight-man bullpen somehow. We know who’s staying and who has a chance to go. Barring injury, Warren will replace either Chasen Shreve, Jonathan Holder, or A.J. Cole. The other dudes are safe. You know it, I know it, they know it.

Cole seems to have taken well to the team’s anti-fastball philosophy and Shreve, like Cole, is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down without passing through waivers, and since he’s left-handed and breathing, he’d likely get claimed. Holder can be optioned down and in these situations teams often take the path of least resistance. Send down Holder and you get to keep everyone. Dump Cole or Shreve and you’re losing a bullpen arm.

Over the last few weeks though, Holder hasn’t just shown the Yankees he deserves a longer look, he’s quickly become one of their better relievers. The Yankees called Holder up when Warren hit the disabled list and since then he’s settled in as the fifth guy in the bullpen behind Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, and Chad Green. That’s the role Warren or Tommy Kahnle was supposed to fill, but haven’t for various reasons.

Holder was part of the Opening Day bullpen and he was terrible to start the season — he allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings before being sent down — but, since returning, he’s allowed one unearned run on four hits and two walks in 13.2 innings. He’s struck out 16. Very good strikeout rate (29.6%), excellent walk rate (3.7%), very good contact management (.279 xwOBA). Holder’s been awesome lately. Been a real nice shot in the arm for the bullpen.

Of course, we’re talking about 13.2 innings here, and every season literally hundreds of relievers will have great 13.2-inning stretches that will trick you into thinking they’re better than they really are. Holder’s not actually this good, but in his case, there might be a tangible explanation for the improvement. He’s changed his pitch selection. I wrote about it two weeks ago. Here’s the updated pitch selection graph:

Since returning from Triple-A late last month Holder has put his cutter and his curveball — a curveball with elite spin rate, at that — in his back pocket and gone after hitters with his slider and changeup (and four-seam fastball) instead. Righties see the slider while lefties get the changeup, and, coincidentally or not, Holder has been much more effective lately. I don’t think it’s a fluke. Change your pitch selection and get better results, and I’m taking notice.

The Yankees have shown they’ll solve their “too many good players” problem by sending undeserving players to the minors. Ronald Torreyes was sent down a few days ago despite excelling in his utility infielder’s role. Dude is beloved in the clubhouse and had been on the MLB roster every day since Opening Day 2016, and he was hitting .339/.349/.435 (114 wRC+). He was sent down anyway. This business is rough, man.

We can’t completely rule out the Yankees sending Holder down to Triple-A Scranton when Warren is ready to return, though this isn’t really another Torreyes situation. Torreyes was a utility guy who, despite being productive in that role, didn’t play much. Especially lately. He started six games — six games! — in the five weeks after Gleyber Torres was called up. As unpopular as the move was in the clubhouse (according to Boone), it did make sense given the roster.

A reliever and a utility guy are very different, however. Torreyes didn’t play much. Win or lose, Holder will get a chance to pitch multiple times a week, and he’s pitching well enough that Boone may soon start to give him higher leverage innings. Torres and Miguel Andujar can play every day and keep Torreyes on the bench. Green and Betances and Robertson can’t pitch every day. There are innings to be soaked up and Holder can do it.

Warren’s return is at least a few days away, so we’ll see what the bullpen looks like when he’s ready to be activated. Someone might pitch their way off the roster — possibly even Holder! — or someone might get hurt. Who knows. The old “this will work itself” mantra hasn’t really applied this year. The Yankees legitimately have more good players than roster spots right now. That includes Holder, who is pitching well with a possible tangible explanation for his improvement. He’s done enough to stay around even after Warren returns.

A.J. Cole could be a useful bullpen arm thanks to the Yankees’ anti-fastball approach

May 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

While frustrating, yesterday’s loss to Justin Verlander and the Astros was about as mundane as it gets. Nothing about the game stood out and we’ll all forget it before the end of the week. The Astros had their ace — and arguably the league’s best pitcher — on the mound while the Yankees countered with their fill-in fifth starter. The Yankees lost. C’est la vie.

Something notable did happen in yesterday’s game though: A.J. Cole allowed a run. Okay, maybe that’s not so notable — the guy does have a career 4.91 ERA in 121 innings, after all — but it was the very first run Cole allowed as a Yankee. Jose Altuve jumping on a hanging breaking ball and hit a solo homer. Good hitter did a good hitter thing. It happens.

The 26-year-old Cole started the season in the Nationals’ rotation, allowed 12 runs in two starts, then was moved to the bullpen. A few weeks later he was designated for assignment and traded to the Yankees in a cash deal. The Yankees needed a long man and Cole was available. Seemed like a temporary move and hey, it still might be.

Not surprisingly, the Yankees have revamped Cole’s pitch selection, specifically getting him to throw fewer fastballs and more breaking balls. That’s their thing. Look at Cole’s pitch usage rates by game since the start of last season:

There’s a big uptick in sliders as soon as he was traded to the Yankees. Cole threw a higher percentage of sliders (50%) in his first game with the Yankees than he did in any of his 26 career appearances with the Nationals. Five of his six highest individual game slider usage rates have come with the Yankees. Not a coincidence! That’s the team’s philosophy.

In his brief time with the Yankees, Cole has posted a higher strikeout rate (27.9%), a higher swing-and-miss rate (15.5%), and a higher ground ball rate (48.0%) than he had at any time with the Nationals. His best individual months with the Nationals featured a 29.6% strikeout rate (May 2015), an 11.7% swing-and-miss rate (August 2017), and a 50.0% ground ball rate (May 2017). Cole’s time with the Yankees has been the best month of his career.

Keep in mind Cole is not some nobody who scrapped his way to the big leagues. He’s a former top prospect — Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the game’s 30th best prospect in 2015 — who was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals. (Washington reacquired him a few years later.) Cole has not developed as hoped since then, but he’s shown enough to keep getting chances.

It’s a very small sample size, no doubt, but Cole’s whiffs and strikeouts and grounders are up, and it’s worth taking notice. Call it a #thingtowatch. There has been a tangible change in his pitch selection — a significant one at that — a change that fits the Yankees’ pitching philosophy, so there is reason to believe the improvement may be real. We need to see more before knowing for sure. I don’t deny that. The early returns are positive though.

I am not particularly interested in seeing Cole pitch in a high-leverage spot or as a starter. I like him right where he is, working mop-up duty. It’s a thankless job but someone has to do it, and if you have an effective pitcher doing it, it makes comebacks easier and blowout wins less stressful. Cole’s done nice work in his current role and I see no reason to increase his responsibility. At least not yet. Maybe he pitches his way into a more important role at some point. He’s not at that point yet though.

At some point fairly soon Adam Warren, who is currently on a minor league rehab assignment, is going to return from the disabled list and rejoin the bullpen. The Yankees are going to have to open a roster spot when the time comes and it is definitely possible Cole will be the odd man out. Jonathan Holder has been great recently and Chasen Shreve is out of options. Cole might be fool’s gold, and the Yankees could move on before regression sets in. Take the good month and run, you know?

For now, Cole is doing fine work as the last guy in the bullpen, and given his new pitch selection and status as a former top prospect, it’s possible he will force the Yankees to keep him around. The Yankees sent Ronald Torreyes down a few days ago even though it as completely undeserved. It’s possible Holder could go down for Warren even though it would be undeserved. Having that much depth is cool. There’s a chance Cole can be more than a throw-away mop-up guy, and it would not surprise me at all to see the Yankees keep him around for a longer look.

With Kahnle and Warren out, a bullpen spot is there for the taking for Jonathan Holder

May 15, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

One-quarter of the way through the 2018 season, the Yankees’ bullpen has not yet been the strength everyone expected. The bullpen hasn’t been bad by any means. But it hasn’t been automatic either. David Robertson’s given up some big homers, the outs aren’t coming quite as easily for Chad Green, and Dellin Betances is still prone to meltdowns. It’s been touch and go at times.

To make matters worse, both Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren are on the disabled list, and gosh have the Yankees missed them. They’ve played a lot of close games lately — they’ve won a lot of close games lately, I should say — and the bullpen has been worked hard. Having Kahnle and/or Warren around to absorb some of the workload sure would’ve been nice this last week or two.

In the meantime Aaron Boone has had to rely on some other guys to get big outs, including Jonathan Holder. Holder had a miserable start to the season, allowing seven runs in 2.2 innings before being sent to Triple-A Scranton. Since resurfacing — Holder was called up when Warren went on the disabled list — Holder has been damn nearly untouchable for the Yankees: 9.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Most notably, he escaped a two on, one out jam in Wednesday’s win over the Red Sox.

“It’s nice to be able to go in and get the job done. Looking back, it was a big spot. I’m glad our offense is so good that we can put up runs like we did in the eighth and come back and win,” said Holder to Dan Martin after the game. “You just have to try to trust the process. I try to learn things every day since we have lots of experience in the bullpen. Sometimes it’s tough, but nights like tonight make it fun.”

Unlike most relievers in New York’s bullpen, Holder is not a blow-you-away type. He stands out more for his spin rate than his velocity. To wit:

Fastball velocity: 91.8 mph (243rd among 383 pitchers with 150+ pitches thrown)
Fastball spin rate: 2,314 rpm (130th)
Curveball spin rate: 2,818 rpm (17th)

Holder’s fastball velocity is nothing special but his fastball spin rate is better than the league average (2,263 rpm). His curveball spin rate is among the best in baseball and comfortably better than the league average (2,501 rpm). Holder’s curveball spin rate is on par with guys like Justin Verlander (2,851 rpm) and Tyler Skaggs (2,741 rpm). The Yankees are spin rate believers and Holder is a spin rate darling. That’s why he keeps getting chances.

Interestingly enough though, since Holder rejoined the Yankees, he’s more or less shelved his trademark curveball, and instead gone with sliders and changeups as his primary secondary pitches. There’s been a few curveballs here and there. Mostly it’s been sliders and changeups.

The Yankees had Holder work as a starter in the minors back in 2015 because he has a deep arsenal — they scrapped that plan because his stuff backed up so much when working out of the rotation — so it’s not like he pulled the slider and changeup out of nowhere. He’s always had them, but for years he was a fastball/curveball reliever because those are his two best pitches. Now he’s a fastball/curveball/changeup guy. Hmmm.

Let’s be clear here, Holder has thrown only 9.2 innings since returning. They’ve been 9.2 great innings, but only 9.2 innings. He had a similarly excellent stretch around this time last year. This could be nothing more than small sample size noise. I do think it’s interesting Holder has changed his pitch selection though, particularly because he’s put his trademark pitch (high-spin curveball) in his pocket in favor of the slider and changeup.

There is potentially a tangible explanation for Holder’s recent success. This isn’t the same Holder getting those outs. This is a Jonathan Holder with different pitch selection, and hey, once the league catches on, maybe he won’t be so effective anymore. For now though, I think Holder’s recent pitch selection and subsequent success is a #thingtowatch. The Kahnle and Warren injuries have created an opportunity for him, and the pitch selection changes could lead to him having staying power really for the first time in his big league career.

Chad Green and a possible shift away from multi-inning relief appearances

May 2, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last night, while the offense was getting dominated by Justin Verlander, five Yankees relievers combined for a Verlander-esque outing, striking out 13 Astros in eight scoreless innings. Domingo German did the heavy lifting. He threw four shutout innings after an elbow injury forced Jordan Montgomery from the game. The bullpen gave the offense a chance to win the game late.

Chad Green had a small hand in the bullpen dominance. Well, not really. He did throw only one inning and nine pitches, the fewest of any reliever, but he faced the middle of the order in the sixth inning of a scoreless game. Green retired Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel in order and quickly. That’s the real dangerous part of Houston’s lineup and Green handled them with ease.

What was unusual about Green’s outing was the fact he threw only one inning and nine pitches. Last year, he almost certainly would’ve remained in the game and thrown a second inning. Green was a multi-inning monster a season ago, getting at least four outs in 29 of his 39 relief appearances and at least six outs 16 times. That ability to pitch multiple innings made him such a weapon.

This year though, Aaron Boone has reined Green in a bit and limited him to one inning at times. Last night was his 12th appearance of the season and the seventh time he threw no more than one inning. Green has done the multiple innings thing at times — he’s thrown two full innings twice and recorded five outs on two other occasions — though it’s not happening as regularly as it once did.

To be fair, the season is young and Green did throw a lot of intense high-leverage innings last season, and the Yankees may be taking it easy on him for the time being. Also, his non-multi-inning outings can be explained.

April 5th (two runs in 0.2 innings): Labored and had to be pulled.
April 6th (one scoreless inning): Pitching back-to-back days.
April 13th (one out): Bailed out Dellin Betances in the eighth, then Aroldis Chapman closed.
April 17th (one scoreless inning): Getting some work in a blowout.
April 23rd (one out): Escaped a jam, then was removed when the Yankees broke the game open.
April 29th (one scoreless inning): CC Sabathia went seven and Chapman closed.

Last night’s outing was the first time this season I said to myself huh, wonder why Green didn’t go a second inning. Those other games above, you can understand why he didn’t go multiple innings. No need to push him for a second inning on the second of back-to-back days on April 6th. No need to have him throw multiple innings in a blowout when he’s just getting some work in. So on and so forth.

Boone knows how good Green is and how devastating a weapon he can be. Look when he used him last night. Sixth inning of a scoreless game against dudes like Altuve and Correa. You want your best reliever on the mound in that spot, and while we can argue the bullpen pecking order until we’re blue in the face, Green is very qualified to handle that assignment. He’s a true relief ace.

Boone is not oblivious to Green’s value. He has used him for multiple innings this season — most notably, for two innings in the win over the Red Sox after Masahiro Tanaka went five innings — and Green leads the Yankees in average leverage index went entering the game …

Chad Green: 1.59
Aroldis Chapman: 1.53
David Robertson: 1.38

… so he’s pitching in important situations. Last night’s one-inning appearance was a bit odd. It seemed like an opportunity to use Green for multiple innings. Aside from last night though, I don’t think what we’ve seen so far this season suggests Green is no longer considered a multi-inning relief ace. The season is young and his appearances have had some extenuating circumstances, which have capped his outings at times. That’s really it.

I’m not sure what was up with last night’s one-inning appearance. Perhaps Boone limited Green to one inning because he labored a bit Sunday and didn’t want to overwork him? Whatever it is, I don’t think Green’s role has changed much even though he hasn’t gone multiple innings as often this year as he did last year. Aside from last night, when Green has gone one inning or less this season, the game situation has suggested that was the way to go. Green can still be a multi-inning force. He doesn’t always have to be used that way though.

Domingo German and the eight-man bullpen paradox

May 1, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees are now 12 days into this 18 games in 18 days stretch, their longest stretch of games without an off-day this season, and so far things have gone really well. Yeah, they lost last night, but it was a close game and they’re still 10-2 in their last 12 games. Hard to complain about the way things have been going lately.

Not surprisingly, the Yankees have carried an eight-man bullpen during this 18 games in 18 days stretch, mostly because the starters weren’t throwing a ton of innings a few weeks ago and the Yankees didn’t want to overwork their bullpen. They’ve cycled through guys like Luis Cessa, Jonathan Holder, David Hale, and A.J. Cole to reinforce the bullpen the last two weeks.

Fortunately, the pitching staff has settled down, and right now the Yankees are preventing runs better than they had at any other point this year. During these last 12 games the starters are averaging 5.75 innings per start, and they’ve completed six innings eight times. During the first 16 games of the season, the starters averaged 5.23 innings per start and completed six innings only six times.

Because the Yankees have been getting more length from their starters, they haven’t had to dip deep into their bullpen these last two weeks, which is a wonderful thing. It also means the eighth reliever is going mostly unused, and in this case, righty Domingo German has been getting the short end of the playing time stick. He’s appeared in four games this season:

April 8th: 2.2 innings and 53 pitches.
April 12th: Three innings and 39 pitches.
April 20th: 1.2 innings and 47 pitches.
April 26th: Three innings and 55 pitches.

German was called up on April 7th, so he’s been on the roster 24 days (not including today), and has only pitched four times. It’s a light workload for sure, especially for a talented 25-year-old who is presumably at the front of the sixth starter line. If necessary, could German go out there and throw five innings and 90 pitches? Is he stretched out for that? Maybe. Seems unlikely given his recent workload.

This is the problem with the eighth reliever’s spot. Teams want that eighth reliever because they’re terrified of running out of arms and having to use their best relievers in low leverage spots. I get it. I totally do. But the eighth reliever typically doesn’t pitch a whole lot. German filled the role for much of the summer last year. He spent 71 days on the active roster and pitched seven times. Seven times!

We saw how valuable German can be in last Thursday’s win over the Twins. He threw three innings in relief, didn’t allow Minnesota to keep tacking on, and gave the offense a chance to get back in the game. That set up Gary Sanchez for the walk-off dinger. I have zero faith in Cole, a guy with a 5.22 ERA (5.32 FIP) in 112 big league innings, doing that. Holder can’t give you extended outings like German.

So the question becomes is this the best arrangement for the Yankees and for German? Would they be better off stashing him in Triple-A as the sixth starter? Would it be better for him long-term? I think that is the case for sure. This isn’t a good spot for German developmentally. At the same time, there’s something to be said for a team carrying it’s best and most talented players, and German is one of their top eight relief arms the moment.

There are two alternatives to German being the sparingly used eighth reliever. One, send him down to Triple-A and let him start. Call up someone like Brady Lail and let him jump on the grenade as the seldom used eighth reliever. Or two, use German more. That would presumably require Aaron Boone stepping out of the comfort zone and using German in a one or two-run game. I mean, he uses Holder in those spots. Why not German as well?

Eight-man bullpens are not going away. They’re becoming the new normal. The Yankees have shown they prefer an eighth reliever over a fourth bench player — this goes back years too, it’s not a Boone thing — which is fine. It’s not like the 25th man on the roster sees much action anyway. But when that eighth reliever is someone like German, and he’s losing development time because he’s not pitching, it can be a problem. Eighth relievers, man. Teams want one on the roster but never want to use him.

Tommy Kahnle’s missing velocity is the latest bullpen red flag

April 11, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

If you’ve watched the Yankees or baseball in general long enough, you know trailing 5-1 going into the sixth inning at Fenway Park is hardly an insurmountable deficit. Fenway is a great place to hit overall, plus it has all those weird angles and walls that lead to crazy bounces and unexpected turns. As bleak as it felt, last night’s game was not over when the Yankees were down 5-1 after five innings.

The game was over after Tommy Kahnle and Chasen Shreve conspired to allow nine runs (on three hits!) in the bottom of the sixth. Kahnle had already put the game out of reach by time Shreve entered. Shreve just let the Red Sox put an exclamation point on the blowout win. Kahnle faced seven batters and they went ground out, double, walk, walk, double, sacrifice fly, walk. His pitch locations:

Not great. Kahnle was either so far out of the zone it was an easy take, or right dang over the middle of the plate. Yesterday’s appearance was his first since his two-inning, 48-pitch outing in the 14-inning game against the Orioles last Friday. He had three days to rest between appearances, so it’s not like Aaron Boone brought him back quickly. Kahnle didn’t look right though. He didn’t look right Friday night and he hasn’t looked right at pretty much any point in the early going.

“Velocity (is) not quite there,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty after yesterday’s game. “Says he feels fine and everything. Hopefully he can continue to work through it and as time goes on, we see that velocity start to climb up again. I think it’s just consistency, especially with strike one getting ahead of guys. (The velocity) just hasn’t been there.”

Boone is right. The velocity has not been there yet this season. Kahnle is a dude who averaged 98.1 mph with his heater last year and topped out at 101.1 mph. So far this year he’s averaging 95.4 mph and has topped out at 98.1 mph. This year’s top velocity is last year’s average velocity. Hmmm. Furthermore, Kahnle has been losing a little velocity each time out. Look:

Egads. That’s not good. Kahnle admitted he doesn’t really know what’s wrong, though he thinks it’s mechanical. “I’m more trying to figure out what’s wrong at this point. I think it’s mechanical. I’ve been all over the place a little bit lately. Just trying to find it. It just doesn’t feel right. I feel like I’m leaking. I just have to get back to that. Get back to feeling right,” he said to Kuty.

Velocity isn’t everything. We know that. And, truth be told, averaging 95.4 mph and topping out at 98.1 mph is plenty good enough to get outs. For Kahnle though, velocity is more important than it is to most. He’s not blessed with great command and his best secondary pitch, that splitter-changeup hybrid thing, needs to be set up with a fastball. The missing velocity means less margin for error, plain and simple.

A few things about this. One, it’s still early and it’s cold. Most pitchers don’t reach their peak velocity until the summer months. Kahnle could just be starting slow. Two, it’s possible he’s dealing with a postseason hangover. As bad as he’s been so far, Kahnle was nails in the postseason last year, soaking up all the high-leverage innings that couldn’t go to Dellin Betances. Lots of intense postseason innings and a shorter offseason to recover could explain things.

And three, what worries me most is Kahnle looked like he was overthrowing last night. I mean, he always looks like he’s overthrowing, that’s just his delivery. But last night it was really noticeable. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last night and it looked like he was putting everything he had into each pitch. Look at the pitch location chart above. All those fastballs above the zone? Those were clearly overthrown. It looked like Kahnle was trying to generate velocity instead of just letting the ball go.

The fact Kahnle is still slinging mid-90s fastballs leads me to believe he’s not hurt. At least not seriously, anyway. Maybe he’s nursing something minor. It’s hard to play through anything serious and still reach the mid-90s though. Kahnle’s track record as an above-average reliever is short, it’s just last year, and given the inherent volatility of relievers, maybe he just stinks now. He had his one good season Derrick Turnbow style and is done. Can’t rule it out.

I don’t think that’s the case though. I think Kahnle’s problems are a confluence of things. Last year’s workload, the crappy conditions the Yankees have played in, mechanical issues, whatever. I don’t think he’s broken forever. The bullpen has not been good overall this year — it has been shockingly bad, really — for a variety of reasons, and Kahnle has been part of the problem. His declining velocity is unquestionably a red flag. There’s something wrong here. Now it’s up to the Yankees and Kahnle to find it and fix it.