Archive for Death by Bullpen
Boone Logan’s Ineffective Slider
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It has not been a good year for Boone Logan, who has “held” the 46 left-handed batters he’s faced to a .350 wOBA this year. He’s only struck out seven of those guys as well, which is an an unfathomably bad rate (15.2%). The Yankees were apparently concerned enough about Logan’s ability to repeat his success from the second half of last year that they signed Pedro Feliciano to a (not cheap) free agent deal. Feliciano’s injury has again thrust Boone into top LOOGY status, a job he really doesn’t deserve at the moment.
The root cause of Logan’s struggles appears to be his slider, a pitch that went from being 2.50 runs above average (per 100 thrown) in 2010 to 1.71 runs below average this year, a swing of more than four runs. He’s throwing the pitch almost exactly as often this year as last, but batters have gone from swinging and missing at it 25.6% of the time to 12.7% of the time, so the slider’s whiff rate has been cut in half. Part of the problem is just location, which you can see from the heat maps above (what’s a heat map?). Logan did a good job of burying the pitch down and away to lefties last year, but this season it’s ending up in the middle of the plate entirely too often.
The characteristics of the pitch are different that last year as well. Boone has actually picked up about an inch and a half of horizontal movement while losing a mile an hour of velocity. A slower pitch with more break is loopier; the 2010 version of the pitch came in harder and had shorter, sharper break. Leave a loopy slider out over the plate … well that’s just a meatball, even to a same-side batter. Logan’s release point is no different (here’s a gif comparing 2010 to 2011), at least not different enough to worry about (could just be a PitchFX issue). Since his fastball velocity is also down noticeably, it could just be a mechanical issue. Or maybe he’s hiding an injury (or doesn’t even know about it) Both theories make sense, as do countless others.
Given the injuries to the rest of the bullpen, the Yankees need Logan to pitch better than he has just to provide depth. He has to improve against lefties at the absolute minimum, since the only reason he’s on the team in the first place is to neutralize the Adrian Gonzalezes and Adam Linds and Matt Joyces and Nick Markaki of the league. Getting back to burying that slider down and away, preferably just out of the strike zone, is step one of that process.
The Traded Bullpen
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Hey, I told you he'd never been a viable starter in the AL East. (Photo Credit: Flick user afagen via Creative Commons license)
For the longest time, it seemed like the Yankees were completely unable to build a solid bullpen. The relief corps fell apart following the departure of Jeff Nelson and later Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza. The merry-go-round of high priced free agent relievers and AAAA-type arms ran from 2003 through about 2008, when the team finally wised up and started growing their own relievers while seeking low-cost options capable of missing bats from the outside. The more the merrier.
As a result from this reliever hoarding, the Yankees ended up with some bullpen depth in recent years and were able to move a number of these guys in trades. They went from having a shallow and ineffective relief corps to actually being able to trade away effective arms to shore up other parts of the team. Crazy, I know. Anyway, let’s look at a bullpen of pitchers built entire of guys the Yankees have traded away in recent years, starting with someone that wore pinstripes a little more than two months ago…
The Long Man: Sergio Mitre
It wasn’t that long ago that our standard for pitching acquisitions was “better than Mitre,” but The Experience moved on to Milwaukee in the Chris Dickerson swap and has done fine work in low-leverage spots for the Brewers. His almost non-existent strikeout rate (3.24 K/9) is buoyed by his typically gaudy ground ball rate (53.0%), and of course he has the ability to go multiple innings if needed.
The Middle Reliever: Dan McCutchen
After spending a few years bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues as a spot starter, McCutchen has carved out as a nice niche for himself in Pittsburgh’s bullpen this year. The former DotF superstar isn’t striking out many batters (4.73 K/9), but he’s made up for it by limiting walks (1.69 uIBB/9) and getting a healthy amount of ground balls (45.1%). McCutchen was the fourth guy in the Xavier Nady-Damaso Marte trade.
The Lefty: Mike Dunn
I’m sure most of you remember Dunn’s big league debut with the Yankees in September of 2009, when he came out of the bullpen in Toronto only to walk three of the first five men he faced on 13 total pitches (not counting the other two batters). He went to the Braves in the ill-fated Javy Vazquez trade last offseason, walked 17 men in 19 IP for Atlanta before being traded to the Marlins for Dan Uggla this offseason. Dunn has emerged as Florida’s top setup man this year, striking out 33 and allowing just 14 hits in 27 IP. He has walked 15, though. Still, can’t argue with that strikeout rate from the left side.
The Setup Man: Tyler Clippard
Long-time readers of RAB are well-aware that I was never much of a Clippard fan. His six start cameo in the Bronx in 2007 was completely forgettable (6.68 FIP), then he was shipped to the nation’s capitol for Jon Albaladejo after the season. Clippard struggled as a starter in 2008 and for the early part of 2009, but a shift to the bullpen late that year changed everything. He’s turned into one of the most dominant relievers in the game, throwing multiple innings pretty much every time out with an 11.01 K/9 and a 3.23 FIP in a MLB-high 126.2 relief innings (105 appearances) since the start of 2010. I think it’s safe to say the Yankees would love to have a do-over on this trade.
The Closer: Mark Melancon
Melancon received four different call-ups with the Yankees in 2009 and 2010, striking out 13 and walking ten in 20.1 IP. He was sent to Houston in the Lance Berkman trade and almost immediately settled into their bullpen. Melancon finished last year with a 3.19 FIP in 20 appearances for the Astros, and this year he’s sporting an impressive 2.46 FIP on the strength of 8.28 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 in 29.1 IP. He has since moved into the closer’s role with Brandon Lyon on the disabled list with a case of the awfuls, and he’s 5-for-6 in save opportunities so far.
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If you’re going to give away good players in trades, relievers are good guys to do it with. They typically have short shelf lives and their impact is much smaller than what you can get from position players or starting pitchers. Of course, trading good players is always a bad thing either, it helps build a solid reputation and ups the chances of making good deals down the road. Of course, it helps when you get good players back as well.
Considering Capps
Posted by: | CommentsAs it stands, the Minnesota Twins’ odds of making the postseason currently stand around 1%. If you’re an astute student of baseball, mathematics and/or statistics, you might deduce that this is not good. Despite winning three games in a row, the Twins still sit at 20-37, 13.5 games back of the division leading Indians. Their fall from grace has been surprising. Virtually everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for this team. You want the litany? I’ll give you the litany. Their best pitcher, Francisco Liriano, has been horrific all year and has shoulder soreness now; their best player, Joe Mauer, has been on the disabled list for weeks; their star first baseman, Justin Morneau, has struggled out of the gate after missing half of 2010 with a concussion; their former closer, Joe Nathan, isn’t quite right after undergoing Tommy John surgery last spring and lost his job as closer; Delmon Young is hurt; several key prospects have struggled or gotten hurt; they demoted one of their best pitchers to the bullpen after some not-so-private feuding, and he is currently injured; their new second baseman had his leg broken on a slide by Nick Swisher; Jason Kubel is hurt; Jim Thome is hurt; it’s already the first week in June, and they just won their first series.
It’s been bad. Really, at this point, they should be looking to unload some of their assets and rebuild. While some have focused on some of their starting pitchers as trade targets, it might be interesting to key in on reliever Matt Capps as a trade target.
Capps was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the seventh round of the 2002 draft and was a starter until 2005 when the Pirates converted him to the bullpen. Once he became a reliever he moved quickly through Pittsburgh’s system, going from A ball all the way to Triple A in one season, and even earning a September callup to the Pirates that year. Capps pitched a full year out of the Pirates pen in 2006, as a 22 year old, and did quite well. Rather than go through his performance year by year since then, I’ve created a little graph listing some relevant statistics that paint a good picture of the type of pitcher he is. These numbers are current through Friday.
Instead of focusing on fluctuations year to year, it’s probably wiser to take all 369.2 innings he’s thrown as a whole. He has a decent ERA and it’s backed up by strong DIPS numbers. He strikes out around 7 batters per 9 innings, not exactly elite for a reliever, but he doesn’t hand out many free passes at all. His K/BB ratio is excellent. Despite his 2010 mark he isn’t exactly a ground ball pitcher, a trait that would play well in Minnesota but perhaps less well in New York. Capps hasn’t had the best year so far in 2011. He’s blown a few games and his strikeout rate has dipped below 6. But it’s also worth noting that it’s only been 25 innings of work, hardly a meaningful sample size, and that his strand rate is well below what would be reasonable to expect going forward.
Capps is signed this year for $7.15 million and he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. By the time he’s traded he won’t cost the acquiring team more than a few million dollars in salary. The Yankees should kick the tires on him and consider bringing him aboard if the price isn’t too steep. Capps wouldn’t necessarily need to handle high leverage spots – Robertson and Chamberlain are doing fantastically – but he’d be the perfect type of reliever to soak up some of those lower-leverage appearances in which we see Robertson so frequently. Girardi has been good about keeping his guys fresh for October, but it would be nice to give him another quality arm to use in the dog days of the summer.
Hector Noesi’s Big Chance
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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Prior to last night’s game against the Blue Jays, the Yankees got some troubling news about their $35M setup man. Rafael Soriano continued to feel soreness in his twice-surgically repaired elbow, and a third MRI “showed enough” that he’ll see Dr. James Andrew today. It’s not often that a pitcher comes back from Andrews’ office with good news, especially not guys with a history of elbow trouble and a problem that has lingered for two weeks now. Regardless of what Andrews says, the Yankees will likely be without Soriano for the foreseeable future.
David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain will now have that much more responsibility heaved onto their shoulders, and they’re Joe Girardi’s key late-inning right-handers ahead of Mariano Rivera. Luis Ayala has been surprisingly effective in a limited amount of work, and chances are he’ll be pressed into some tight spots in the coming weeks. He has setup man experience (with the ExpoNats), but that was several years ago. If he maintains this level of performance, it would be a pleasant surprise to all. The Yankees are going to need someone to step up and solidify the middle innings in Soriano’s absence, and they have someone on the roster that just might be able to do that. His name? Hector Noesi.
Although he’s been in the big leagues for (a total of) three weeks now, Noesi has just two appearances to his credit. The first was his heroic (but not exactly picture perfect) four innings of relief in extra innings against the Orioles, the second some garbage time innings earlier this week. The seven innings of work featured four strikeouts, three intentional walks, and just four ground balls, but those numbers don’t really tell us anything. The kid was nervous, and 30 batters faced just isn’t all that meaningful.
There are three things that make Noesi seem (operative word here) like a good candidate for short, possibly even leveraged relief work. First is his fastball command, which has long been his calling card. It’s not just about strikes, it’s about quality strikes, and Noesi’s track record and scouting report have long touted his ability to provide them. The second thing is a swing-and-miss changeup to battle lefties and a slider for righties. Okay, that’s probably two things, but let’s combine them anyway. Noesi has gotten 14 swings-and-misses out of his 101 big league pitches (13.9%) so far whereas Ivan Nova has gotten 15 whiffs all month (481 pitches, 3.1%), for comparison’s sake. The third thing is his demeanor, which we can’t really quantify. He came off as very poised in that Baltimore game, making pitch after pitch when he needed too. If nothing else, it looked good.
The Yankees and Noesi would be sacrificing some development time in this arrangement, yes, but we’re not talking about someone that projects to be a frontline starter. Noesi’s profile has always been more back-end starter because his stuff is good but not great, and if he proves capable in one-inning bursts, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they kept him there indefinitely. I know we’re all scarred by the Yankees’ recently handling of some of their top pitching prospects, but Noesi’s exactly the kind of guy that ends up a reliever or trade fodder for New York.
In a perfect world, Noesi would transform into the 2009 version of Phil Hughes, the long-time starter that shifted to the bullpen in part because he didn’t want to go back to the minors, but also because the team needed him there. Is he going to be as dominant as Phil was two years ago? Almost certainly not, that would be a tough act to follow, but all the team needs Noesi to do right now is settle in as a capable middle reliever and give Girardi another option for sixth and seventh inning work. He doesn’t have to step right in for Soriano, the Yankees have people for that. Just be somebody that can lighten the load on the three right-handers on the end of the game, that’s it. And if it doesn’t work, well at least it was low risk.
The Overworked Relievers
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"Hold on kids, they want me to pitch again." (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
If there’s anything good to come out of last night’s loss, it’s that the Yankees were able to sit and rest their core relievers for a day. I mean completely rest them, they didn’t even have to get up and walk to the bullpen mound thinking about the possibility of warming up. Joe Girardi said before the game that Joba Chamberlain was not going to pitch given his recent workload, which included six appearances in the last eleven games. David Robertson has also worked quite a bit lately (five appearances in the last ten games), and even Mariano Rivera has been used heavily at times this year.
Rafael Soriano‘s injury has made those three, especially Joba and Robertson, that much more important this month. The problem is that these guys can’t go on like this forever, they’ll be burnt out by season’s end. Mike Jaggers-Radolf at The Yankee Analysts looked at these three yesterday and showed that they were on target for some serious innings totals, but I want to dig a little deeper. Innings are nice and convenient, but they are most certainly not all created equal. What’s really important is the number of pitches thrown by each, because as the old saying goes, there’s only so many bullets in those arms.
Let’s look at each pitcher individually, and compare their cumulative pitch totals this season to last season. Might as well follow The Formula™, so first up is the seventh inning…
A fresh arm for the bullpen: who’s available?
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The Yankees’ bullpen has been worked pretty hard of late, and the table above a) comes from the great site Daily Baseball Data, and b) shows who’s pitched when and how much over the last week. You can click it for a larger view, if needed. Joba Chamberlain has pitched in four of the last six days, David Robertson in three of the last five with a lot of pitches thrown, 41-year-old Mariano Rivera in three of the last four, and on it goes. Boone Logan has worked so much of late that his arm is apparently barking, as Joe Girardi indicated that the ice pack on his lefty’s elbow last night was more than just routine maintenance.
After taking one for the team in extra innings last night, Hector Noesi is likely to be sent back to Triple-A Scranton today just to get a fresh arm in the bullpen. It’s a cruel world, but the kid certainly earned himself another look and will be back with the big league team sooner rather than later. So who is available to come up tonight? Turns out the answer isn’t very obvious…
40-Man Roster Guys
- Andrew Brackman, RHP: Threw 92 pitches on Sunday, so tomorrow would be his regular turn. Might be a bit of a long shot, but not completely off limits.
- Buddy Carlyle, RHP: Threw 35 pitches yesterday and 11 on Sunday. Unlikely, but possible.
- Lance Pendleton, RHP: Threw 50 pitches yesterday, so he’s a definite no.
- Ryan Pope, RHP: Threw 50 pitches on Tuesday, so he’s almost certainly a no.
Non-40-Man Roster Guys
- Randy Flores, LHP: Just signed a minor league contract, threw eight pitches yesterday and hadn’t pitched since last Friday before that. He’s just a lefty specialist though, I assume they’re looking for someone that can give them at least two innings.
- George Kontos, RHP: Threw 37 pitches on Saturday and hasn’t pitched since. He’s a definite candidate.
- D.J. Mitchell, RHP: Started and threw 113 pitches on Saturday, so today would be his regular turn. Carlos Silva is starting for Triple-A Scranton tonight though, and I’m not sure if Mitchell got pushed back to tomorrow or if he’s scheduled to come out of the bullpen after Silva.
- Andy Sisco, LHP: Another LOOGY, he threw 31 pitches on Tuesday and 14 on Sunday. Nope.
- Kevin Whelan, RHP: Ten pitches yesterday, 11 pitches last Friday, and 16 pitches last Thursday. It’s possible.
- Eric Wordekemper, RHP: Just three pitches on Tuesday but 32 on Sunday. Maybe.
David Phelps and Adam Warren have started the last two games for Triple-A Scranton, so they’re not options. Assuming Kontos isn’t hurt (just seems odd that he hasn’t pitched in four days, though SWB got rained out one of those days), he and Mitchell seem like the odds-on favorites, though Brackman’s in the mix as well. A 40-man roster spot isn’t much of an issue since Phil Hughes could just be moved to the 60-day disabled list, and if I had to guess, I’d bet on Mitchell getting the call just because he can provide some serious length if needed. Then again, so could Amaury Sanit, and perhaps a true short reliever with strikeout stuff like Kontos makes more sense. Me? I’d prefer Kontos, but what do I know.
David Robertson’s Top Three Escape Jobs
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He's been doing this since college. (AP Photo/Jason Harless)
Last night’s seventh inning escape job was just more of the same for David Robertson, who seems to have made a habit out of wiggling his way out of such jams. “If I’m stepping off, it’s usually because the crowds are loud,” he said after the game. “I need to calm myself down because I don’t want to become erratic.” That’s something that just comes from experience, so he knows the routine by now.
In honor of Robertson’s continued success in the fireman role, let’s take a look at the three greatest escape jobs of his career using WPA. I limited the sample to only games when he entered in the middle of an inning to clean up someone else’s mess. He doesn’t get any credit for wiggling out of his own jams here.
3. August 15th, 2009 (box & video)
In many ways, this was when Fireman David Robertson™ truly emerged. The Yankees were in Seattle, leading the Mariners by two runs thanks to some surprisingly solid work by starter Sergio Mitre (no, really). The Experience started the sixth inning by striking out the corpse of Ken Griffey Jr., but Russell Branyan (single), Jack Hannahan (walk), and Rob Johnson (single) all reached base to end his day. Joe Girardi summoned Robertson to hold the line.
Jack Wilson and Ryan Langerhans were the two batters due up, and although they aren’t exactly the most intimidating duo, inheriting a bases loaded jam in your 60th career appearance isn’t exactly easy. Wilson battled for eight pitches, eventually swinging through a fastball for strike three. Langerhans worked the count full and took a fastball down in the zone for what looked like ball four, but the home plate ump called it strike three and the inning was over. Generous call, yes, but it’s still a strike some 21 months later. Robertson’s WPA for the game was +0.160 (he started the next inning), or +0.140 for the two strikeouts.
(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Chris Young)
2. April 15th, 2011 (box & video)
This one is pretty recent, it happened just a few weeks ago. The Yankees were in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays, but starter A.J. Burnett was having a rough go of it against his old club. He started the sixth inning with the Yanks up by two, but a leadoff single (and a steal) by Aaron Hill followed by a Jose Molina pop-up and a Corey Patterson walk put the Jays in business. Edwin Encarnacion doubled in one run and put runners at second and third with one out, but a Jayson Nix walk loaded to the bases. Exit Burnett, enter Robertson.
The lineup had just turned over, so Jose Bautista was two batters away at the time. It was either get Yunel Escobar and Travis Snider or (figuratively) die trying. Robertson had a similar yet different approach against both batters; he fed Escobar seven straight fastballs before Toronto’s shortstop swung and missed for strike three, then he gave Snider four straight curveballs for another swinging strikeout. That resulted in this gem…
It’s hypnotic, isn’t it? Robertson used one pitch exclusively against each batter to record to the threat-ending strikeouts, stranding Joey Bats in the on-deck circle. He faced just the two batters, but his WPA was a stout +0.254.
Big relief after this one, eh? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
1. October 9th, 2009 (box & video)
Surely you remember this one. It was Game Two of the 2009 ALDS, and the Yankees and Twins were tied at three in the 11th inning after Alex Rodriguez hit a game-tying, two-run homer off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the ninth. Damaso Marte did some great work in the World Series, but he allowed consecutive singles to Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel to lead off the 11th before Robertson was called in. Mauer should have doubled earlier in the at-bat, but that’s another post for another time.
Instead of coming in and doing the strikeout thing, David needed some help on this one. Michael Cuddyer singled on a hanging curveball to loaded the bases with none out, taking away any margin of error. Noted hacker Delmon Young lined a first pitch curveball right at a perfectly positioned Mark Teixeira for the first out, bringing Carlos Gomez to the plate. He also swung at the first pitch, a fastball in on his hands, grounding it to Tex who got the force play at home. Brendan Harris was all that was left between escape and certain doom, and he lifted a 1-1 fastball into center field for a routine fly out to end the inning and the threat. At +0.341 WPA for the game (+0.461 for the three outs), this was Robertson’s masterpiece, his Mona Lisa.
Righting the Soriano ship
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Bad Soriano. Bad. (Kathy Willens/AP)
Rafael Soriano is not this bad. He has shown in his nearly 400 innings prior to signing with the Yankees that he is, indeed, an elite relief pitcher. At his best he can blow pitches by batters while avoiding dreaded walks and home runs. That’s the guy the Yankees inked to a multi-year deal last winter. The guy who has showed up has been a cheap facsimile, a carbon copy that has cost the Yanks games and caused the fans much agita. But this isn’t the real Rafael Soriano. Once the Yankees get him right, things will go much smoother.
Exactly what’s wrong right now is anyone’s guess. We know the symptoms: hanging sliders, fastballs that catch too much of the plate, a general inability to throw quality strikes — and sometimes the inability to throw strikes at all. He has faced 50 batters this season, but has retired just 31 of them, and of those only seven on the strikeout. The rest have reached base either via the hit, 12, or the walk, eight. That’s all fine and good, but we all see that. If the symptoms aren’t immediately apparent when watching him, they sure as hell are on the stat sheet. What we don’t know is the cause.
Of course, searching for the cause can lead us down false paths. The easy path is the old narrative that closers struggle when they’re not in save situations. With Soriano that’s pretty ridiculous, since he wasn’t a full-time closer until last season. In fact, in 2009 he split time between setting up and closing, and he produced a marvelous season. It was, in some ways, better than his year in the closer’s role with the Rays. Before that he was purely a setup man, recording single digit saves in every season of his career prior to 2009. Unless he completely forgot how to pitch in non-save situations during the course of a single year, the idea that he’s struggling because of his role is ridiculous.
It could be just a matter of time before Soriano comes around. After displaying some lower fastball speeds earlier in the year, he was dealing last night, averaging almost 95 mph with his four-seamer and 94 mph with his cutter. His slider speed also appears back up to par. It will only be a matter of time, then, before he returns to form and starts shutting down opponents. Unfortunately, that requires patience. At this point, patience is understandably thin among the fans. We’ll just have to suck up it for a bit longer. But sooner, not later, we will see the Soriano that dominated in 2009 and 2010.
Really, though, it doesn’t matter what we think. We’re just the spectators. The guys involved know that patience is the only cure to whatever ails Soriano. “I still believe he’s going to be very, very good for us and he’s going to play a huge role for us,” Joe Girardi said after the game. Translation: there are no plans to shy away from him in the eighth inning of close games. Maybe that’s a mistake; maybe backing off a bit and using him in lower leverage situations would be for the best. But it’s hard to right the ship if he’s not pitching at all. At least in the eighth he starts with a clean slate. That is, when there are tough situations, Soriano is not the guy. That helps mitigate matters, if only a little bit.
Chances are we will not see Soriano tonight. He sat out the weekend with a bad back and then pitched on consecutive nights. In fact, we might not see him until Sunday, if his words carry any weight. “I’ll come back next month and see what happens,” he told reporters after the game.
Soriano has a long way to go in redeeming himself with the fan base. Normally great performances make people forget about the past, but Soriano’s past now includes two squandered games. It’s hard to forget those, since they’re forever etched in the loss column. Have faith, though, that he’ll return to form soon enough. He’s just too good a pitcher when healthy to go through more than a short stretch in this manner.
This is not how to use a 41-year-old closer
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(Kathy Willens/AP)
What do you do if you have one reliable starter and a bunch of question marks behind him? Build a better bullpen. Heading into the season, it appeared that the Yankees had assembled its best group of relief arms, at least to start a season, in many years. With a closer in the setup role, two setup men in lesser roles, two lefties, and a flexible long man spot, the Yankees had created a backup plan should some of their starters falter. Yet something did not seem right about it.
In his Expanded Horizons column last week, Baseball Prospectus’s Tommy Bennett tackled the issue (subscriber only, sorry). Teams that hand a lot of innings to their bullpens, even good bullpens, don’t have a long track record of success. This makes plenty of sense. Using the Yankees as an example, they have four reliable relievers: Rivera, Soriano, Robertson, Chamberlain. If their starters are going six or fewer innings most starts, that leaves them with three innings to cover. Eventually one of two things will happen. Either Girardi has to start using the other guys in the pen, or else those four get burned out. Last night we might have seen a bit of the latter.
The off-days early in the season have helped lessen the workloads on the Yanks relievers. Though they’ve played 15 games, that has covered 20 days, giving the bullpen some free rest. But that doesn’t make them immune from overuse. In fact, it appears that overuse is just what is currently happening.
Mariano Rivera might seem superhuman at times, but behind the myth is a 41-year-old man. He has kept himself in pristine physical condition, and so can do things that other 41-year-olds cannot. But even he has limitations. WIth last night’s appearance he has now thrown in five of the team’s last six games, which is five of the last seven days. That’s a heavy workload for any reliever, never mind one who is busy fending off the ravages of age. Yes, he has been in a position to get a save or a win in each of his 10 appearances — 10 in 15 games — but that doesn’t excuse the overuse. Girardi simply cannot let something like that happen to such an important pitcher.
The overuse doesn’t end with Rivera. Joba Chamberlain has also appeared in 10 of 15 games and has pitched in four of the last six. Soriano has appeared in just eight of 15 games, though even that seems like a lot. That’s an 86-game pace, which would be nine more than Soriano’s previous career high. David Robertson has seven appearances, but as Mike wrote yesterday, he has warmed up in just about every game. We can’t be sure what kind of physical toll this takes on him, but it can’t be good for him to be taking some to the mitt every single game.
Eventually this will have to change. The Yankees will not have the advantage of five days off in a 20-day span. They are, in fact, headed for a 17-game streak from late April into early May, and things don’t get easier from there. The top four relievers will need to sit out sometimes when the team has a small lead late in a game. This could come into play as early as tonight. Maybe Girardi would go back to Soriano, and there’s a chance he’d use Chamberlain. But can he really justify using Mo yet again — for the sixth time in eight days, for the 11th time in 16 games? That would be quite irresponsible.
Unless the starters can start pitching into the seventh inning, this is going to be a year-long issue. No bullpen is stocked with reliable relievers. Even the best in the league has its weak points. Eventually, the Yankees will have to use those weaker arms in relatively tight spots. If they don’t, they’re going to burn out the reliable ones — which, in turn, means they’ll have to rely on those weaker arms in relatively tight spots. It’s a tough spot for the team, but eventually something will have to change. This usage pattern simply cannot last all season.
Saving David Robertson’s Arm
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The Puffy Face is catching on. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Once Rafael Soriano signed on the dotted line of that damned contract, one thing became very clear about the 2011 Yankees: they were going to have a dynamite bullpen. At least on paper anyway, because Mo knows these things almost never work out as planned. The season is only 14 games old, but aside from two Soriano meltdowns the relief corps have performed as expected. Their 2.98 FIP is the best in the AL by nearly half-a-run (Cleveland is second at 3.42) and their 2.37 K/BB ratio trails only the White Sox (2.88). So far, so good.
Joe Girardi has proven to be a fine bullpen manager, not over-working his core guys and not burying the sixth and seventh relievers for two weeks at a time either (though I’m sure Hector Noesi disagrees). His bullpen management skills are probably overblown since his predecessor was as bad as it gets in that department, but I don’t think anyone really has a huge problem with how he works his relievers. Sure, we all disagree with an individual pitching change from time to time, that goes without saying, but as far as the big picture goes, he’s just fine.
However, as this season has started unfold, one of Girardi’s most annoying tendencies has become even more painfully obvious: the guy just loves marrying relievers to specific innings. Loves it. Makes the in-game decisions nice and easy and the post-game questions even easier. Why’d you bring that guy into the game in that spot? He’s my X inning guy. Bam, end of story, next question. Joba Chamberlain in the seventh, Soriano in the eighth, Mariano Rivera in the ninth. That’s the plan and Girardi’s sticking to it, hell or high water.
Of course, rolling out Joba, Soriano, and Mo in the late innings probably is the best course of action to win a single game, but baseball’s a marathon. To be quite frank about it, David Robertson can not be warming up in the sixth inning of every game just in case the starter gets into trouble, and then not pitch of he doesn’t. It just can’t physically be done. Those pitches thrown in the bullpen count against his arm even if they don’t show up in the box score. Sometimes Girardi will just have to go against The Formula™ and let him pitch the seventh inning to keep him fresh and spread out the workload, even if it makes him unavailable for a day or two. That’s life. I don’t know why Joba and Robertson aren’t interchangeable in that seventh inning role anyway, but that’s just me.
Now don’t get me wrong, I love the idea of having Robertson available as the fireman, using his strikeout-heavy ways to get out of a jam mid-inning. But he doesn’t need to be on call for that role every single day, especially since he’s warming up for it more often than not. Ultimately, I’m just concerned about the health of his arm and his effectiveness. If you warm up day after day like that, you’re not fresh when you finally do come into a game even if you’ve had the last four days off.
The Yankees have played an inordinate number of close games this season (already five one-run and one two-run game out of 14), so at some point the bullpen workload will start to even out. Mo and Joba won’t make the 104 appearances they’re on pace for and chances are Boone Logan will get into more than 58. Robertson has appeared in six games already, putting him on pace for right around 70, which is a perfectly reasonable number. Hopefully Girardi will cut down on all those complete game shutouts he’s been throwing in the bullpen though.
Just 6 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
