Archive for Death by Bullpen
Inside the AL East bullpens
Posted by: | CommentsThe RAB media empire continues to grow. Even though we’re not actually instituting a paywall, our online baseball presence is growing. Beginning today and continuing for as long as they’ll have me, I’ll be penning the AL East Divide and Conquer recaps for Baseball Prospectus. To preview the season, I explored bullpen construction for the AL East five. The Yanks clearly have the best pen while the Rays have completely overhauled their relief staff. Anyway, I’ll be there once a week, usually on Tuesdays or Wednesday so be sure to check it out.
2011 Season Preview: Miscellaneous Relievers
Posted by: | CommentsHeading into spring training it appeared that the Yankees had the bullpen all figured out. Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, Pedro Feliciano, and one of the long man candidates potentially composed one of the best Opening Day bullpens the Yanks have had in years. But, as happens so often, some of them got hurt. While they all might be fine by Opening Day, they won’t remain that way all year. The Yankees will likely go through about a dozen relievers at various points. In today’s preview we’ll take a look at some of the ones near the top of the list.
(Charlie Neibergall/AP)
A move to the bullpen last year did Pope good. Before that he was a middling starter who appeared to have little hope of cracking the big league rotation. A move to the rotation might have revived his career with the Yankees. It impressed them enough that they added him to the 40-man roster. That status alone could put him atop the list for a bullpen call-up. He’s probably not a future setup man or anything along those lines, but with some progress this year he could turn into a serviceable middle reliever.
Romulo Sanchez
The recent spate of bullpen injuries could benefit Sanchez, who previously appeared the odd man out. He’s out of options, so if he doesn’t make the big league team they’ll have to place him on waivers. Since basically every team could use bullpen help, especially expected second division teams, it’s easy to envision someone taking a chance on him. The Yanks might avoid that situation if one of their relievers starts the season on the DL — and the team decides that Sanchez is a better overall option than Sergio Mitre.
I just wrote about Sanchez earlier this week, so for a more complete take check out that.
Sergio Mitre
The Yankees keep bringing back Mitre. Two years running they’ve non-tendered him, only to bring him back on a non-guaranteed contract. So apparently he likes it in New York, too. Unfortunately, he hasn’t proven much during his tenure with the team. In 2009 he was still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and last year he missed time with an oblique injury and otherwise wasn’t much used.
Since he has apparently gained the Yankees’ favor, I thought that he’d break camp as the long man. But as spring progresses we’ve seen indications that suggest otherwise. As we noted earlier this week, some scouts are convinced the Yanks will let Mitre go at the end of spring training. They do have a number of options for that last spot, and Mitre seems behind everyone in the competition. If he does make the team expect much of the same from 2010. That is, sparse usage in mop-up duty.
The Yankees and Prior are on the same page, in that they both expect him to open the season at AAA to help him build up strength with an eye on a possible big league return. The most important aspect of Prior is that he’s none of the guys he has been in the past. That is, he’s not the phenom ace who led the Cubs to the 2003 ALCS. Nor is he the injury prone schlub who hasn’t pitched a big league game since 2006. He appears to be in decent health now, and his repertoire has necessarily changed.
If Prior stays healthy there’s a good chance he makes it back to the bigs in a relief role this year. It’s hard to say what he’ll do, because we don’t know what kind of pitcher he’ll become as he redevelops his game.
Steve Garrison
(David Goldman/AP)
Last September the Yankees claimed Garrison off waivers from the Padres, though it was too late for him to get into a minor league game. He’s not much of a prospect, but he is left-handed and on the 40-man, and therefore will get plenty of shots to crack the big league club, especially in relief. Mike wrote a profile of Garrison earlier this spring. An interesting note: if he starts the season at AA, he’ll be playing in front of his hometown crowd. He was born in Trenton, NJ.
In the early days of camp Brackman seemingly impressed just as much as his fellow Bs. His groin injury cost him about a week, which is a big deal early in the spring. He pitched only 2.2 live innings before heading down to minor league camp, but that doesn’t necessarily say anything about his closeness to the bigs. At some point he could take some turns in the rotation, but later it’s also possible that he breaks into the majors as a reliever.
His current arsenal certainly profiles well out of the bullpen. He features a 93-95 mph fastball that he keeps low in the zone, and an above average curveball. Baseball America notes that he also added a “nascent slider that shows potential,” but he’ll probably need to develop his changeup, something he’s struggled with, if he’s going to find success in the rotation. Without that he might be ticketed for the bullpen in the long-term. He might be ticketed there in the short-term, too, though that might not come until later in the season.
It’s tantalizing to imagine him in the bullpen come August. That 93-95 mph fastball could reach the upper 90s, and his curve could prove a devastating knock-out pitch. While ideally he progresses throughout the season and enters the rotation at some point, Brackman the reliever could provide plenty of value on his own.
How Romulo Sanchez Fits
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Attractive, Romulo. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)
Heading into spring training, the Yankees bullpen situation appeared relatively set. Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, and Pedro Feliciano constituted six out of the seven members. Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova figured to be the last. But, as so often happens, guys got hurt. While Mitre appears ready for action again, the Yankees are taking a more cautious tack with Chamberlain. If he doesn’t respond to treatment for his oblique, his absence could open up an opportunity in the bullpen.
One pitcher who could benefit is Romulo Sanchez. Acquired from the Pirates in exchange for Eric Hacker, Sanchez entered his second Yankees camp with an ultimatum. Since he’s out of options, the Yankees must add him to the active roster or else expose him to waivers. Given his hard-throwing nature, there’s a strong chance that another team takes a chance. Previously Sanchez’s departure seemed a foregone conclusion. But now with a couple of injuries in camp he might have a chance.
When the Pirates traded Sanchez to the Yankees, he didn’t appear to have much potential. For the first two years of his minor league career he possessed the undesirable combination of low strikeout rate and high walk rate. But in 2007 he started mowing down more hitters and walking fewer, which led to his first big league call-up. That was a mostly unsuccessful 18 innings, but the promise was still there. But in 2008, in AAA, his strikeout rate dipped again. He did pitch 13.1 big league innings scattered throughout the year, but he wasn’t particularly impressive. That helps explain why the Pirates traded him for a low-potential pitcher such as Hacker.
Again in 2009 Sanchez saw his strikeout rate spike, this time to nearly a batter per inning in Scranton. His walk rate was still high, but that’s always easier to stomach with a high strikeout rate. In 2010 he showed that it was no fluke, as he struck out 8.3 per nine. Of course, he also walked 5.1 per nine. His lack of control was on display during his paltry 4.1 innings in the Bronx, most of which came during an early May appearance against the Red Sox. The potential remains, but the control issues are what holds Sanchez back.
This spring has seen more of the same. Sanchez has pitched in four games, totaling 4.1 innings, and has walked four batters. Yet he has struck out only one. Even still, as Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday, scouts have been impressed by Sanchez. That’s not too surprising, since spring stats, especially in such a minuscule sample, can be deceiving. If he really has looked impressive this spring, it would be a shame for the Yankees to lose him. With their current injuries, they might not have to.
If Chamberlain opens the season on the DL, I’m fairly certain that Sanchez would take his place. That would only last a week or so, but it would give Sanchez a big league audition before the Yankees make a decision on him. Perhaps that extra time will convince the Yankees that Sanchez is a suitable replacement for Sergio Mitre. But, chances are that it will just delay his inevitable placement on the waiver wire.
On a team with fewer options in the bullpen, Sanchez makes sense. Even on the Yankees he might provide a better option than Mitre in the seventh-man/long-man bullpen role. Still, the concerns about his wildness will probably prevent him from capturing a long-term spot on the team. Injuries to two relievers might open up a temporary opportunity, but Sanchez still likely won’t be a Yankee come May.
Looking at Soriano’s cutter against lefties
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For Horacio Ramirez, straight up. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
About two weeks ago we learned that Rafael Soriano has something in common with Mariano Rivera beyond being a really awesome relief pitcher: he also throws a cutter. Mike Fast at Baseball Prospectus dug through the data and found that prior to 2010, Soriano would use the cutter almost exclusively against right-handed batters and go after lefties with a little two-seamer away, which sounds good in theory but it wasn’t really working for him. Lefties tagged Soriano for a .313 wOBA before last season, which is better than league average but far too high for a guy that’s supposed to be an elite reliever.
That all changed in 2010, perhaps with some help from the Rays coaching staff or just an adjustment on Soriano’s part. Fast found that Rafi started throwing his cutter to left-handed batters more than he had in the past, something we can now visualize thanks to the great new heat maps feature at FanGraphs…
I’m certain there are some classification issues, with a few cutters being classified as sliders and vice versa by the PitchFX system, but the margin for error isn’t that big. MFIKY clearly threw more cut fastballs to lefties last season, and the early returns on the strategy were good. He held lefties to a .267 wOBA against and cut down on their line drive rate by almost ten percent compared to 2009. Of course we’re talking about a really small sample of data here (he faced just 118 LHB in 2010), so let’s not take this stuff to heart just yet.
The side effect of going with the cutter instead of the sinking two-seamer is the lack of ground balls. Soriano coaxed an infield pop-up out on a whopping 17.9% of the balls lefties put in play last year, and a regular old fly ball 45.9% of the time. An infield fly ball rate that high isn’t something that’s sustainable; he had been around 10% in 2007 and 2009, his two previous full and healthy seasons. The fly ball rate in general is high, which is Soriano’s forte, but the spray chart shows that he didn’t give up too many deep fly balls last year (that’s balls in play from Tropicana Field in 2010 overlaid onto Yankee Stadium). Not every fly ball has to be to the warning track.
Soriano won’t be as good as he was with the Rays in 2010 with the Yankees in 2011, and that’s fine. He’s going to give up a few more homers because of the ballpark, but he should be an excellent weapon out of the pen as long as he stays healthy. The thing to keep an eye on is that cutter against lefties, and whether or not he continues or maybe even increases the usage of the pitch. Perhaps Mariano Rivera could help him improve even more by showing him how effective the pitch can be when it’s thrown in their hands. At the end of the day, the results are what matters most, but Soriano appears to have found a process that worked for him last summer.
The fireman and organizational incentives
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Rafael Soriano joined the Yankees, the cause célèbre of Yankee bloggers quickly became the use of Soriano as a fireman in the bullpen. EJ Fagan from The Yankee U and our own Ben Kabak have both discussed it recently in detail. In a nutshell, the Yankees now have two closers in Rivera and Soriano. Given that Rivera will pitch the ninth and that the eighth inning isn’t always the highest leverage moment that the bullpen will face, they argue persuasively that the Yankees should use Soriano to put out fires, whether those fires arise in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings. This concept is logical and well-founded, yet I think there’s a good reason to believe that the Yankees, or most other organizations for that matter, won’t employ it in 2011.
It’s no secret that the New York media is unforgiving. While Brian Cashman seems to avoid a lot of the nastiness, plenty of reporters assume a sarcastic and critical approach towards Joe Girardi. Their Twitter accounts during games are rife with jokes about Girardi’s matchup binder, and they seem to enjoy playing “gotcha” with Girardi’s information about player injuries and explanations about decisions. Very simply, an unorthodox idea like using Soriano as the fireman would likely be met with criticism in print, in the airwaves and on the internet. One can imagine the reaction if Soriano blew a lead in the sixth inning and the Yankees lost the game, or if Soriano saved a lead in the sixth but saw Joba Chamberlain surrender the lead later in the game. It’s easy to picture the back page of the New York Post with a gigantic headline like, “Bonehead: Why is Joe Girardi using his $35 million dollar man in the sixth inning?”
Of course there is a very good answer to this question, one built on data, logic and research. But it’s a complicated answer and it doesn’t lend itself to a sound bite. It’s easy to say that Soriano is our “eight-inning guy, period”. It’s way more difficult to explain that the manager is going to try to maximize win probability by utilizing the best relievers in the highest leverage spots. It would also require Girardi to explain why Rivera isn’t used in the highest leverage spots, and only in the ninth inning, a question which would require him to admit that this idea is a bit of a hybrid between the traditional use of a closer and the more sabermetric-inclined concept of leverage and probability. In a media environment not known for kindness, friendliness to new ideas or nuance, one can imagine how badly this would play out. Who’s ready for a summer of arguing with the beat writers!
Of all the reasons not to do something, though, worrying about how the New York media would perceive you has to rank near the bottom. This reason would also be moot, and Girardi wouldn’t be the focal point of the criticism, if it was clearly communicated that he had the full confidence of the organization to execute this plan. As such, whether Rafael Soriano is used as a fireman or strictly in the eighth inning is a question of organizational incentives, a cost-benefit calculation that all relevant actors in the organization have to perform. Traditional bullpen management works well enough. Put another way: traditional bullpen management is orthodox, accepted by fans, media and other organizations alike. There may be a much better way to do it, but no one at the moment seems to be trying it. The potential gain is not losing a lead, something that most people assume as a given anyway. Think about it: in the best-case scenario the team doesn’t surrender a lead that it already has. The downside risk is a bit greater. For one, the team could actually lose the game in question, should the fireman give up the lead. The manager could lose the faith and confidence of the fans, or worse, his superiors. Ultimately it’s at least possible that that the manager could lose his job.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a very good sense of what organizational incentives are like for the New York Yankees. Our knowledge of the inner-workings of the Yankee organization is quite limited. Our first-hand information is self-selected by the GM and the Manager, or comes at times of unrest and dissension (the Cashman-ownership split on Soriano, for instance). Our second and third-hand information is even more problematic. It comes through the conduit of reporters and leaks. Often times one has to wonder whether the information made public is designed to serve some sort of Machiavellian purpose. What part of the organization is leaking this information and why? Are they attempting to undermine another part of the organization? Are they lying in order to throw competitors off the scent? Is this simply good information? But this is about as deep as most fans can go. We simply will not know what Cashman and his cadre of advisors did this winter in secret. We won’t know if they looked at the possibility of a four-man rotation, batting Cano second or using Soriano as a fireman. We won’t hear about the ideas that they entertained, researched, debated and ultimately rejected.
As such we have to at least consider that the concept of Soriano as fireman has been explicitly research and rejected by Yankee management. Yet we also have to consider the flipside, that the organization is more by-the-book in certain areas, and that taking big risks in high-profile situations isn’t encouraged. This would mean that no matter how sound or logical the concept is, the Yankees will never be the first team to adopt it. Ned Yost of the Royals perfectly captured this sentiment yesterday when asked about the concept of a fireman. Kings of Kauffman has the quote:
Yost is still a baseball guy, and there’s a way things are done in baseball and a way to not do things. Innovation isn’t a popular idea. Using Joakim Soria in an early situation might make sense by the numbers “but you won’t catch me doing it.”
This is an unsatisfying feeling and it’s one familiar to anyone who has worked in a corporate environment and found that doing things as they’ve been done in the past and not looking like an idiot is more important than trying to invent new ways of doing things and possibly failing. It’s flat frustrating when the best idea loses out to the more familiar idea. It’s also bad organizational management, because it aligns the interests of the employees with keeping their jobs and not screwing up, rather than allowing a certain amount of room for failure and fostering innovation and productivity. But the Yankees don’t particularly need to reinvent the wheel. They don’t need to discover untapped markets of value like the Rays or the Athletics need to in order to succeed. In New York, where the lights are as bright and as hot as anywhere on the planet and where “what have you done for me lately?” is a way of life, there is little margin for failing and looking dumb.
This summer, Girardi is going to leave Soriano and Rivera chucking sunflower seeds against the plexiglass as a lesser reliever blows a lead. Sergio Mitre may pitch the 13th inning of a tie game on the road while Rivera waits for the team to get the lead before coming in. When this happens, it’s important to recognize that it’s not necessarily because Girardi is thickheaded or stubborn, too smart for his own good or intentionally trying to annoy the curmudgeonly beat writer crew, although the latter would be spectacular. Girardi may be a very public face of the Yankees, the one who projects authority and whose face is on television every night, but ultimately he’s another organizational actor subject to peer pressure criticism from his superiors. What Girardi doesn’t want to become is another Jeff Zucker, who risked job safety and ratings certainty on an unknown quantity with arguably higher upside and long-term success only to have to back out of it when it turned difficult. At that point, Zucker’s fate was written on the wall. It was only a matter of time before the house came down.
About that bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsMuch has been written about the Rafael Soriano signing and for most part it’s been for all the wrong reasons. The contract itself has been criticized, the way ownership drove the deal has been criticized, Brian Cashman‘s comments at yesterday’s press conference have been criticized, you name it and it’s been criticized. Let’s move away from the criticism for a second and look at something that hasn’t gotten much attention since Soriano agreed to come on board: the Yankees have a fantastic bullpen right now.
Say your prayers little one. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Barring trade or injury, the Yanks will open the season with Mariano Rivera filling his customary closer’s role and Soriano serving as his primary setup man. That pushes both David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain into middle relief roles, essentially filling the gaps between the starter and Soriano. Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano will take care of the tough left-handed batters. The seventh man in the pen figures to be a low-leverage long reliever, ideally Sergio Mitre. We know what Mo brings the table and there’s not much to say about him that hasn’t been said over the last 15 years. He gives the Yankees a clear advantage over every other team in the league, so let’s focus on those middle innings instead. That’s where a ton of games are won and lost anyway.
The table to the right has the strikeout rate of the team’s three right-handed middle innings guys over the last three years, as well as their rank out of the 171 qualified relievers (min. 100 IP). Robertson trails only Carlos Marmol (12.99 K/9), Billy Wagner (12.41), and Jonathan Broxton (11.94) in strikeout rate, and those three are all closers. If we remove the now retired Wagner, just five teams will go into the 2011 season with more than one of the top 25 strikeout relievers (Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres), but the Yankees are the only club with three. You’d have to stretch the list to the top 33 if you want to find another club with three top right-handed strikeouts guys, and that’s the Padres.
If we look at just overall reliever FIP with the same 100 IP minimum, the Yankees own two of the top ten over the last three years. Joba (2.71) is ninth and Soriano (2.78) is tenth, but remember, we’re not counting Rivera here, and his 2.56 FIP is sixth best over the last three seasons. The Padres are the only other team with two of the top ten FIP’s when you remove the closer position. Robertson isn’t exactly an FIP fiend because he does walk quite a few, but his 3.40 mark since 2008 is 39th best in the game. Among the top 40, the only clubs with at least four relievers on the list are the Yanks, Padres, and Rangers, and two of Texas’ guys are lefty specialists. The Yanks and San Diego are the only clubs with four right-handed relievers in the top 40 FIP over the last three seasons. Clearly, those two clubs are heading into the season with some dynamite righty relief.
Shifting over to the lefties, well, we can’t do much with Logan. His record of big league success is basically the second half of 2010, about 12% of his career innings. He’s just as likely to tank in 2011 as he is repeat that second half performance, and that uncertainty is why the Yankees went out and got Pedro Feliciano. Over the last three seasons, only three lefty relievers can top Feliciano’s 2.80 FIP against left-handed batters (Hong-Chih Kuo, Matt Thornton, Randy Choate (grrr)) and only eight can top his 9.61 K/9. One of those eight is Logan at 10.34.
There are obviously quite a few benefits to having so many relievers of this caliber, and an important one is rest. Not that Joe Girardi has had a trouble spreading the workload around in the past, but now he can back off guys and not sacrifice much, if any quality. This will come in handy particularly with the 41-year-old Rivera, who can forget about working back-to-back-to-back days or multiple innings until the playoffs. That was a big part of Joe Torre’s problem, he’d wear his top relievers down during the summer and they were toast come playoff time.
In the past, before Cashman altered his bullpen building strategy, we watched as the Yankees chased that elusive bridge to Rivera, often focusing on one quality setup man while the middle relief suffered. That should not be any problem this year, as Girardi will be able to employ what amounts to two above-average, high strikeout setup men in the middle innings while mixing in one of the game’s top lefty specialists as needed. Once those innings are taken care of, it’s hammer time with Soriano and Mo. Of course this is all on paper, we know who quickly a bullpen situation can change, but right now the Yankees are remarkably deep in quality relief arms.
Comparing the bullpens of Boston and New York
Posted by: | CommentsThere’s a lot to dislike about the Rafael Soriano signing: the loss of a draft pick, the injury risk, the salary and the fact that Sergio Mitre is still the fifth starter. However, there’s one thing to be very happy about, and that’s how strong the Yankee bullpen figures to be. Last summer at TheYankeeU I spent a fair amount of time using Baseball Prospectus’ Tommy Bennett’s methodology on reliever dominance. Bennett’s jumping off point is trying to understand and evaluate Mariano Rivera; even advanced metrics can’t consistently rate Rivera accurately. This is because he has the relatively unique ability to sustain a consistently low BABIP and prevent home runs. Stats like FIP and xFIP would then prove relatively useless to analyze Rivera. For instance, take a look at Rivera’s Fangraphs page. His ERA has been below his FIP and xFIP virtually every year of his career. Anyone care to predict that this year will be different? Bueller?
So Bennett tried out a different methodology to evaluate reliever skill based on two stats: SIERA and WXRL. He described them in an earlier piece accordingly:
The gist is [SIERA] gives an estimation of a pitcher’s controllable skills (fly ball rate, strikeout rate, ground ball rate, and walk rate) and considers how they interact with one another. Put simply, it’s a way to evaluate the totality of a pitcher’s skills while looking beyond contingent (or luck-based) factors.
WXRL, on the other hand, is a metric based on win expectancy. It simply measures, compared to replacement and adjusted for quality of opposing lineup, how the likelihood of the reliever’s team winning changed from when he entered the game to when he left.
This is simple enough. The next step Bennett took was to calculate a Reliever Score based on the two stats. The methodology sounds complicated but is relatively straightforward. Cue Bennett again:
We’ll take WXRL and SIERA for all pitchers who have pitched solely in relief. For each pitcher, we’ll calculate how many standard deviations they are away from the mean in each category. Then we’ll add them together. For example, a pitcher who was one standard deviation better than the mean in both SIERA and WXRL would get a score of two.
For our purposes I’ve set slightly different parameters. I set the cutoffs at 20 innings for relievers only, used data from the 2010 season, and then pulled out the relievers on Boston and New York. The results for Boston are first. Keep in mind that a higher number with WXRL is better (based on Win Expectancy), and that SIERA is like FIP, so it’s scaled and comparable to ERA.
Daniel Bard registered the highest Reliever Score in the Boston bullpen based on a very high WXRL score in 2010. This is hardly surprising; Bard is an elite pitcher with an incredible arsenal who often found himself in high leverage spots for the Red Sox last season. One interesting aspect to the chart is seeing Bobby Jenks grade out better than Papelbon in SIERA. Boston earned accolades from the stat community for their signing of Jenks, and rightfully so. Jenks’ SIERA score is sending the same message that his FIP sends – that his peripherals were intact and that a bounceback wouldn’t be unexpected. Jenks registers a low WXRL, but that’s not surprising given his poor results in 2010; if his BABIP normalizes and he’s used in high leverage spots this number ought to increase in 2011. All told the most interesting aspect of this chart is that Jenks scores the best among any Boston reliever in K/BB ratio and SIERA. If he is able to recover and have a better 2011 it’ll really help out Boston’s middle relief and make his contract look like a steal.
One area of weakness is the lefty reliever. Doubront appears headed back to AAA this season, leaving only Hideki Okajima coming from the left side. Okajima’s numbers are some of the worst of any reliever on this list. He’s historically tough on lefties (3.50 K/BB ratio, 0.591 OPS against), so he could have greater value in 2011 if used more sparingly. Now to the Yankees:
Here we see the strength and depth of the Yankee bullpen. Simply put, Rivera and Soriano are a two-headed monster. It wouldn’t be a surprise for Soriano’s BABIP and HR/FB ratio to rise in 2011, especially in Yankee Stadium behind the Yankee defense, but he’s always been a strikeout-heavy pitcher equally adept at limiting free passes. It’s also notable how well Joba Chamberlain looks. A lot of fans love the idea of Joba the starter, and for good reason, but Joba the reliever is probably underrated at this point. Much like Bobby Jenks, Joba’s advanced stats and peripherals make him look far better than his ERA would indicate. In fact, as Moshe from TYU noted, he looks very similar to Daniel Bard’s statistical profile, and their respective SIERA numbers back this up:
And yet, the numbers show that Joba was about as good as Bard was last season, and that with a little bit of luck, the perception about him would likely be vastly different. Furthermore, Bard is actually 3 months older than Chamberlain, a fact that would surprise most but suggests that they are on equal footing in terms of development. I do not mean to suggest that Joba was actually better than Bard in 2010, as there is something to be said for ERA and results, such that I would not explain all of Joba’s struggles away using the “luck” factor. But the peripherals clearly tell us that these two pitchers should be regarded similarly, and I would be far from shocked if Joba and Bard put forth extremely similar seasons in 2011.
Alongside Joba in middle-to-late relief is David Robertson, the forgotten cog in the bullpen wheel. Both of these relievers are probably capable of manning the eighth inning, so hopefully they’ll be able to prove themselves in high leverage spots this season. It’s almost an embarrassment of riches, to be frank, and really underscores the fact that the Yankees could extract more value from Joba as a starter than as a reliever. The Yankees also figure have two solid lefties this season. Given the strength of the Soriano, Chamberlain and Robertson, it stands to reason that Feliciano can be used more sparingly than he has been in the past, deployed particularly against lefties. Get ready for long games full of pitching changes and endless unfunny binder jokes.
At great cost the Yankee front office (and ownership!) has assembled a very good bullpen this winter. If they’re able to acquire another starting pitcher and/or persuade Andy Pettitte to return then the staff on the whole figures to be very solid. It’s also pretty safe to say that this bullpen looks better on paper than Boston’s heading into this year, and may in fact be the best in baseball. The Yankees have missed out on a lot this offseason, but the bullpen is very respectable. Hey, it’s the little things.
Draft pick not the only issue with Rafael Soriano
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(Tony Gutierrez/AP)
Regardless of the Yankees’ stated disinterest, Rafael Soriano remains one of the most discussed players among Yankees fans and media. Without a viable starter on the free agent market or clearly available via trade, the Yankees have little recourse. They can, however, add a shutdown setup man and heir apparent to Mariano Rivera with Soriano. But as we’ve noted throughout the winter, there are factors that make acquiring Soriano a shaky proposition.
Today at New York Baseball Digest, Mike Silva tackles one of those issues: draft pick compensation. The Yankees would lose the 31st pick in the draft if they signed Soriano, and in a deep draft like this such a loss can be costly. Mike and I have butte heads before, but I think he lays out a solid argument here.
Back in March of ’10, Moshe Mandel of the Yankee U recapped a John Sickels conversation with Yankees VP of Baseball Operations Mark Newman. In that column, Newman pointed out how they have relied on the international market, as well as risking lower draft picks on players that are signability issues, because the lower first round picks don’t have the highest ceilings. Knowing that, I don’t think the lack of a first round pick eliminates the Yankees from having a productive draft in 2011.
The Yankees will still have a top-50 pick, thanks to Javy Vazquez declining arbitration, so they could still get a decent front-end pick and then use their financial might in the later rounds. If the Yankees can get a lights-out setup guy and a potential future closer, might that be worth sacrificing one pick — a pick that Newman indicates that the Yankees don’t value as greatly as other teams?
My problem with signing Soriano, though, doesn’t so much center on the draft pick issue. When signing a premium free agent, the first round pick is a known tax. It might sway my opinion when it’s a mid-level player, but Soriano is clearly an elite relief pitcher who has succeeded while closing games for the AL East champs. That certainly has value to the Yankees. But the Yankees aren’t paying for the Soriano who terrorized opponents in 2010. They’d be paying for the Soriano from 2011 through 2014. That changes the equation.
Since the start of the 2006-2007 off-season, 10 fairly high-profile relievers have signed contracts of three years or more. The list of success stories is pretty thin.
Justin Speier: After superb 2005 and 2006 seasons with the Blue Jays, Speier got four years from the Angels in November of 2006. He had a quality first year, a 2.88 ERA, but after that he completely fell apart: 5.03 ERA in 2008 and 5.18 in 2009. He didn’t even play the final year of his contract.
Danys Baez: Despite a horrible 2006 season, Baez still managed a three-year contract from the Orioles for 2007 through 2009. Unsurprisingly, he was horrible in 2007. Then he needed surgery and missed 2008 before a decent, but still not very good, come back in 2009.
Chad Bradford: He wasn’t a closer, but he was still a useful reliever for many, many years. In 2005 he had a 3.86 ERA, and in 2006, with the Mets, he dropped that to 2.90. That led to a three-year contract. While he was decent in the first year and good in the second, he was pretty terrible in 2009.
Scott Schoeneweis: I’m not sure how Schoeneweis got three years, but he was terrible enough that I’m comfortable with ignoring him here.
Mariano Rivera: Needs no explanation.
Francisco Cordero: He turned a lights out 2007 into a four-year contract with the Reds. He’s been decent, and in 2009 he was excellent, but he hasn’t exactly been great enough to justify the contract. He very well might be the best comparable for Soriano.
David Riske: At least Speier had one good year in Anaheim. Riske was flat horrible his entire time with the Brewers.
Damaso Marte: We’re all too familiar with this one.
Francisco Rodriguez: He’s actually been quite good, off-field issues aside. Maybe he could act as a comparable for Soriano as well, but he definitely had more of a track record when he hit free agency.
Brandon Lyon: He had a good first year in Houston, though we need a bit more data before we can consider it a success.
The point, made concretely, is that even previously good relievers can collapse at any time. Soriano could certainly help the Yankees if he progresses in the same way as Francisco Cordero, but at that point is he worth the salary and the draft pick? This is where I’d say I lean towards the leave him alone camp. The signing would be risky enough without losing the draft pick. Adding in that factor has me opposing a Soriano acquisition.
Silva’s counterpoint: why not a one-year deal? That would certainly reduce risk. But if Soriano gets hurt, or has terrible luck, as we’ve seen with a number of relievers previously, the loss of the draft pick hurts that much. I’m not saying that’s probable, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. I’d actually feel a bit better about losing the draft pick over a multiyear deal than a one-year deal, since the Yanks can still get some value out of Soriano in later years of the contract if he flops in the first.
Who’s going to give Soriano multiple years? I’m not sure. But Boras has his way of working magic. After all, he got a team with an incumbent third baseman to sign a third baseman to a six-year, $96 million deal. I don’t think Soriano’s settling for a one-year deal this winter. He’ll get his multi-year deal. I’d just rather that not come from the Yankees.
Pedro Feliciano, relief workhorse
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(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
When the Yankees officially signed Pedro Feliciano to a two-year deal two days ago, they added the game’s preeminent relief workhorse to their bullpen. Not only did the 34-year-old southpaw lead the league with 92 appearances last season, the most since Salomon Torres appeared in 94 games in 2006 and the second most in the last 31 years, but he also led the league with 88 appearances in 2009 and 86 appearances in 2008. Feliciano has appeared in 28 more games than any other pitcher in the last three seasons, 42 games more than anyone else if you go back to 2007, when he appeared in “just” 74 contests.
That high workload can be scary, especially when you factor in all the times he warmed up but didn’t enter the game, but Feliciano is the definition of a lefty specialist. His career high in innings pitched is 64 set four years ago, and he’s never faced more than 280 batters in a season. In Tuesday morning’s blog post (Insider req’d), Buster Olney mentioned a) the Yankees intend to keep an eye on Feliciano’s workload, and b) he actually pitches better on short rest. Allow me to excerpt…
The Yankees intend to moderate his workload – the left-hander has pitched in a whopping 344 games over the last four seasons — and hope this will make him more consistent.
But the funny thing is that his splits from 2010 on how rest impacts his performance are counter-intuitive an upside pyramid from what you’d expect.
- OPS when pitching on zero days of rest: .583
- One day of rest: .641
- Two days: .820
- Three-five days: 1.036
- Six days-plus: 1.550
OPS is a nice quick and dirty number, but we know that OBP is more important than SLG, so it’s not the best metric. I want to see how Feliciano has performed on various days of rest in terms of wOBA and as well as strikeout rate, so let’s do that. In order to avoid a small sample, I used data from 2008 through 2010…
The league data is for relievers only, so starters aren’t skewing the numbers at all. Also, it’s better to have a lower wOBA+ and a higher PA/K+ in this case since we’re talking about the opposing batter’s performance and Feliciano’s strikeout rate, respectively. Also, we might as well just throw out the data for games pitched on three or more days rest, the sample is just too small. If we want to lump it all in with the two days of rest data and call it two or more days of rest, we get a 113 wOBA+ and a 101 PA/K+ in 78 appearances. Not all that hot.
So as it turns out, Feliciano is better when he’s used quite heavily, considerably better in fact. He holds opponents to about 90% of the league average offensively on a day or less of rest, though his strikeout rate remains at or above average regardless of how many days he’s had off. Without going into wOBA+ and all that, it does appear that he’s tired down the stretch in the past, presumably as that heavy workload starts to catch up to him during the summer. That’s why it’ll be important for Joe Girardi & Co. to monitor Feliciano’s workload throughout the season, because you want him to be healthy and effective down the stretch. September and October is when you can run him into the ground and use him five days a week, when there’s a little more at stake.
A lot of times we’ll hear television announcers say that so-and-so wants the ball everyday and needs to pitch a lot to be effective, but I’ve always kinda brushed that off as another way of romanticizing the game. We all want to think it’s full of these big tough guys that will pitch until their arms fall off and what not, but we all know that’s just not how it works. Feliciano appears to be a rare breed though, the kind of guy that thrives when he’s used often. He won’t throw many total innings and shouldn’t face any right-handers, but it’ll be nice to have some (theoretical) predictability from a lefty reliever for once.
Will a former closer set up for the Yanks in 2011?
Posted by: | CommentsSince Joe Girardi took over as manager of the Yankees, we’ve seen a trend from his bullpens. They start off a bit shaky, but after weeding out the ineffective ones and bringing in new blood they end up among the better units in the league. But now that the team has money and roster spots available, might they try to strengthen the bullpen now, when there are a number of quality relievers available?
The Yanks already have a good base in the pen. Mariano will return to close out games. Setting him up are Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson, both of whom are worthy of the job. Robertson has spells where he struggles, but he has far longer streaks of dominance. Joba got off to a rough start, but by the end of the year he was pitching as well as his peripherals indicated. Boone Logan, too, will be back as the team’s primary lefty. After that the Yankees have some openings. With the current free agent crop, they could choose to sign a primary set-up man and move Chamberlain and Robertson down the ladder.
(Chris O'Meara/AP)
Yesterday ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand wondered whether Rafael Soriano would work as a setup option. It seems to be based on an anonymous scout saying, “It would make sense,” so let’s look just a little deeper at the cases for and against Soriano.
If the Yankees want the absolute best reliever on the market, Soriano is their man. Since 2006 he’s been downright dominant, averaging a 2.54 ERA, 0.961 WHIP, and 3.17 FIP. He broke out in 2003 when he pitched 53 innings to a 1.53 ERA, but he then missed most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons after undergoing and recovering from Tommy John surgery. In 2006 he returned to form with a 2.25 ERA in 60 innings. The Mariners then traded him to the Braves for Horacio Ramirez, which was one of the most lopsided deals of the last decade.
In Atlanta Soriano continued his dominance. During his three years there he threw 161.2 innings to a 2.95 ERA and 3.26 FIP. He became eligible for free agency after the 2009 season, but instead decided to accept the Braves’ offer of arbitration. They then traded him to Tampa Bay, who signed him to a $7.5 million contract. He more than earned it by producing a 1.73 ERA in 62.1 innings as the team’s closer. The Rays offered him arbitration, but this time he declined. We haven’t heard much about him during the free agency period.
While Soriano, 31, is likely seeking a closer’s gig, there might not be one immediately available. He was originally connected to the Angels, but they signed Scott Downs and already have Fernando Rodney. That leaves him with only a few options. Setting up for the Yankees could certainly be an attractive gig for him. He remains on a winning team, and gets to set up for the greatest closer of all time before perhaps taking over for him in 2013. Soriano is by no means the next Mariano, but he’d be an adequate replacement after Mo finally hangs ‘em up.
There are downsides to signing Soriano, of course. First, he’s going to command a multi-year, big money contract. We know that relievers are volatile creatures, and while Soriano has been relatively consistent throughout his career, he’s still susceptible to random fluctuations. His health is also somewhat of a concern. After his Tommy John Surgery he missed time in 2008 with further elbow troubles. Since the Rays offered him arbitration he’d cost the Yankees their first round pick, which makes it a bit tougher a proposition. Losing the pick would be even worse if the contract didn’t work out.
Bobby Jenks
(Ted S. Warren/AP)
Last night Ken Rosenthal made a pretty terrible pun by saying that there is “heavy action” on former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks. He mentioned that the Rays have interest, as do the Yankees. What can Jenks offer the Yanks?
After producing a 4.44 ERA and blowing four saves in 2010, the White Sox declined to tender Jenks a contract. This comes as a curious decision. Since he came up in 2005 Jenks has been at least a good reliever, and at times has been downright dominant. He has the highly desirable combination of high strikeouts, high ground balls. That will play well in any park, but it works particularly well at Yankee Stadium.
The fear is that Jenks is in decline. It started in 2008, when his strikeout rate dipped all the way to 5.55 per nine. That was the culmination of a four-year trend. After striking out 11.44 per nine during his rookie season, he saw that number dip in each subsequent year.
2005: 11.44 K/9
2006: 10.33 K/9
2007: 7.75 K/9
2008: 5.55 K/9
Throughout all this he kept his ERA below 3.00, and still kept his FIP at a decent level. In 2009 he rebounded to strike out 8.27 per nine, but something else changed. He more than doubled his career home run rate to that point, allowing nine in 53.1 innings (1.52 per nine). That led to a career high 4.47 FIP, and his ERA inflated to 3.71. While his strikeout rate was encouraging, there still had to be some concern about Jenks. Still, the White Sox took a chance and tendered him a contract, which paid him $7.5 million in 2010.
In terms of peripherals Jenks completely rebounded in 2010. His ground ball rate shot back up to near 60 percent, and his strikeout rate rebounded to 10.42 per nine. He walked a few more than normal, but nothing drastic. Most importantly, his home run rate dipped down to his normal, low career level. He did struggle at times, thanks to a .368 BABIP — his career mark is .306. This makes the Sox decision to non-tender him a bit curious. He’s now a free agent, and while he could cash in better next off-season if he went to close for the Rays, he could also raise his value by setting up for the Yanks.
David Aardsma
(Ted S. Warren/AP)
Rosenthal was at it again last night, this time reporting that the Mariners were shopping closer David Aardsma. After bouncing around the league since his debut in 2004, Aardsma finally settled in with the Mariners in 2009, establishing himself as their closer that season. His 2010 season wasn’t as impressive, but it was still a decent season for a relief pitcher.
Aardsma has always been a high strikeout guy, but walks have hurt him in the past. That tendency was at its worst in 2008, when he walked 35 in 48.2 innings for the Red Sox. With the Mariners he showed a bit more control, but at 4.29 walks per nine he still issued a few too many. He thankfully made up for that by striking out 10.09 per nine and allowing just four homers in 71.1 innings in 2009. That certainly raised his stock, and instead of getting DFA’d, as he had grown used to, he got a $2.75 million contract from the Mariners.
In 2010 Aardsma continued his walk happy ways, but didn’t quite have the strikeouts or home run rate to sustain his 2.52 ERA from 2009. He did get some help on balls in play, a .235 BABIP that had to be somewhat influenced by Seattle’s strong defense. His FIP rose a full run to 4.05, which has to be a concern as well. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Aardsma have a disappointing 2011.
The big problem, though, is his fly ball rate. Aardsma is a straight fastball pitcher, and as such induced many fly balls. In Seattle’s large park he was able to keep his HR/FB ratio in check, but that won’t be as easy in Yankee Stadium. This makes him a poor fit for the Yankees. He might fit nicely into a setup role for another club, and might close for a second division team. But his fly ball and walk rates make him less than ideal for the Yankees.
Go hard after Jenks
It should be clear at this point that Jenks fits the Yankees the best. He doesn’t have Soriano’s track record, and there are certainly concerns with him, but given his price tag and lack of free agent compensation, I can see the Yanks getting involved. They might have to go above and beyond in order to land him as a setup man, but a two-year deal could definitely seal it. The only question then is money, though I suppose that depends on the types of offers he’s receiving elsewhere.
While Soriano makes sense for some reasons, he presents a few too many risks to warrant a four-year contract. That would be ideal for the Yankees, since it would give them a closer for two years after Mariano’s current deal expires, but if Soriano gets hurt along the way it doesn’t matter. Jenks can be had on a shorter contract and has the potential to be an elite setup man. If they’re going to target a righty free agent bullpen arm, it should be him.
Just 5 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
