My strategy last year was to load up on hitters early, and not take any pitchers until my last nine picks because they tend to get hurt and are just more unpredictable in general. It didn’t go so well, so I scrapped that strategy all together and went back to my traditional routine of mixing pitchers in as I go. I still grabbed hitters with my first four picks, but after that I targeted some young arms with upside potential.

We have twelve stat categories, six for hitters (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP) and six for pitchers (W, HD+SV, K, ERA, WHIP, QS). Holds + Saves instead of straight saves adds a little more flexibility to league (plus it’s something different), and I took advantage of it by hording top set-up men with my last few picks. After all, what’s the point in wasting a fourth or fifth round pick on a guy like K-Rod or Joe Nathan when Scott Downs or Russ Springer could give you similar stats sixteen rounds later?

The first round went Hanley, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Braun, Rollins, Sizemore, Miggy, Utley, Tex, Lincecum, Chipper, Johan, Howard. Here’s the squad I drafted (round/overall pick):

C: Russell Martin (4/51)
1B: Derrek Lee (6/79)
2B: Brian Roberts (3/34)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (1/6)
3B: Aubrey Huff (8/107)
OF: Brad Hawpe (9/118)
OF: Conor Jackson (10/135)
OF: JD Drew (13/174)
UTIL: Jack Cust (14/191)

SP: Felix Hernandez (5/62)
SP: Zack Greinke (7/90)
RP: Jason Motte (18/247)
RP: Ryan Madson  (20/275)
P: Josh Johnson (11/146)
P: Gil Meche (15/202)
P: Jered Weaver (16/219)

BN: Alex Rodriguez (2/23)
BN: Mike Aviles (12/163)
BN: Ryan Spilborghs (21/286)
BN: Chris Volstad (17/230)
BN: Jose Arredondo (19/258)
BN: Scot Shields (22/303)

Obviously I took A-Rod with an eye more towards the second half. We have eight DL spots, so I’ll just slide him over and grab a player out of the free agent pool as needed once the season starts. Huff is my third baseman for the time being, and if he puts up numbers anywhere close to what he did last year, I’ll be golden. He, Jackson and Aviles are eligible at multiple positions, so I have some flexibility. Most days I’ll start all four relievers, unless of course I have more than three starters scheduled to pitch that day. I’d like to have someone better than Ryan Spilborghs as my JD Drew insurance, but hopefully Drew can stick it out until A-Rod comes back. I’m happy, I think I can do some damage with this team.

Anywho, here’s your open thread for the night. The Nets are home against the Bucks, the Knicks are in Utah, and the Devils and Rangers will face-off in the Garden. You’ve also got new episodes of House and 24 on FOX, which is probably where I’ll be. Talk about whatever you like here, just be nice to each other.

Oh, and don’t forget to vote in this week’s Fan Confidence Poll if you haven’t already. Thanks.

Photo Credit: Waiting for Next Year

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Open Thread: My RAB Fantasy Baseball League Roster

The league settings are the same as the original league (you can see them here), and the draft is scheduled for this coming Sunday (the 22nd) at 6:15pm. Remember, it’s a crazy deep twenty team keeper league, so please only email if you’re serious about playing. I’m not managing the league, but it’s in very capable hands, and of course it’s 100% free. Thanks in advance.

Update (11:10am): The Alternate League is full. Thanks again everyone.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

RAB Alternate Fantasy Baseball League

Please make sure you look over all the league settings (which you can find here) before deciding you want in. The draft date is set for Sunday, March 22nd at 6pm EST, and we’d like to have as many team owners there as possible. This is going to be a keeper league (so it continues on year after year), so please only email if you’re serious. We’d like to avoid having people abandon their team in midseason. Of course it’s free to join. Thanks.

Update (11:19am): One more spot left…

Update (11:23am): The league’s full. Thanks everyone.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

RAB Fantasy Baseball League

Take, for example, Mr. Rodriguez. MLB predicts a .293/.381/.570/41/124 season for A-Rod, and ESPN predicts .303/.393/.585/44/130. Mark Teixeira looks primed for a big fantasy season as well. When you add up the totals, the Yanks come out with around 850 runs scored via ESPN and 958 via MLB. The playing time totals are a little sketchy, but I’d take that improvement in a heart beat.

On the pitching front, Sabathia emerges as a true ace. MLB pegs him at 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP while ESPN predicts 19 wins, a 3.33 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Both sites believe he’ll toss more than 230 innings in 2009. Adding up the pitcher’s win totals on ESPN puts the Yanks at 95 for the season; MLB targets a 98-win season for the Bombers. Pessimistic PECOTA these are not.

In the end, of course, these projections are great for the plethora of upcoming drafts — and yes, we’ll probably put together a RAB Fantasy Baseball League — but they’re not great for much else. It’s fun to imagine that everyone on the Yanks will be as great as their potential, and it’s wishful February thinking to target a 98-win season for the Yankees. But if the stars align just right, it may just become reality.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Unbridled fantasy optimism

Usually, I go into my fantasy draft targeting six or seven key players hoping to land four or five of ‘em. From there, I just wing it and build the rest of my team around those guys. This year, I tried something different. I went in with a set strategy that I’m happy to say I stuck to despite several tempting opportunities to digress. Basically, I loaded up on offense early, and waited until the very end of the draft to grab pitchers–preferably high upside guys. My thinking is that hitters are generally known commodities and can be difficult to obtain during the season, but pitching is so unpredictable that there will certainly be a few quality arms available in free agency along the way. (I grabbed Fausto off the waiver wire last year). Problem is that if my team stinks, I look like an idiot.

I got stuck with the first overall pick in the scissor style draft, meaning I had to wait roughly 15 minutes in between making back-to-back picks; it was quite the ordeal. (The draft started at 9 p.m. and ended at 11:30-ish). Thanks to Patrick for once again putting this together. My roster is after the jump.

C: Kenji Johjima (9th round)
1B: Nick Swisher (6)
2B: Brandon Phillips (2)
3B: A-Rod (1) – It was either him or Melky.
SS: Khalil Green (12) – 97 RBI last year … who knew?
OF: Adam Dunn (3) – Contract year … 50 HR?
OF: Gary Sheffield (4)
OF: Nick Markakis (5)
UTIL: Jim Thome (8)
BN: Rickie Weeks (7) – If he stinks, I can blame it on Keith Law.
BN: James Loney (10)
BN: Jeremy Hermida (11)

SP: Ian Snell (13)
SP: Rich Harden (14)
SP: Matt Garza (15) – I hope the AL East isn’t too rough on him.
RP: Kerry Wood (16)
RP: Heath Bell (20)
P: Gil Meche (17) – As soon as I picked him, I regretted it.
P: Ubaldo Jimenez (18)
P: Mike Mussina (19) – contract year rebound? Hope so–and not just for the sake of my fantasy team.
P: Pat Neshek (21) – Bill Smith, I’d appreciate it if you went ahead and traded Joe Nathan before the season starts.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yankees Bloggers Fantasy Baseball League Draft Results

Whaddaya think, does he have a shot at winning College Player of the Year, Minor League Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year in 3 consecutive years? What about MVP in the 4th year? That’d be one hell of a thing.

(hat tip to TPA)

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Fantasy gamble pays off

Whadda ya think, am I better off than before?

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Jeez, it’s not even Opening Day yet

(Round 1, Pick 2): Jose Reyes
2/19: Grady Sizemore
3/22: Jason Bay
4/39: Joe Nathan
5/42: Francisco Rodriguez
6/59: John Smoltz
7/62: Felix Hernandez
8/79: Daisuke Matsuzaka
9/82: Cole Hamels
10/102: Delmon Young
11/112: Russ Martin
12/119: Tad Iguchi
13/122: Chipper Jones
14/139: Pat Burrell
15/142: Derek Lowe
16/159: Jonathan Broxton
17/162: Conor Jackson
18/179: Chris Duffy
19/182: Edgar Renteria
20/199: Chad Tracy
21/202: BJ Upton

It’s your garden variety basic fantasy league – head-to-head competition in 5 hitting and 5 pitching categories. I got stuck with the second overall pick, and had originally planned to take a masher. I ultimately decided against it, because stolen bases, or lack thereof, has killed me in years past, plus HR and RBI are typically easier to find in the land of fantasy baseball.

I horded closers, landing the 2 best fantasy end game arms (and I’m hoping Broxton takes over in LA in the not-to-distant future), and also managed to steal Cole Hamels in the ninth round. I planned on loading up with youngsters (I am the minor league guy here after all), but apparently everyone else had the same idea. I did manage to get Delmon Young, but I lost out on Stephen Drew, Howie Kendrick, and Troy Tulowitzki. I took a wait and see approach with Tim Lincecum, which ultimately lead to me waiting to see Joe take him in the 18th Round.

Here’s what I’m thinking in the 10 categories:

SB
Reyes and Duffy might combine for 120 steals by themselves, but I’ve got some backup in Sizemore and Bay, who could steal 20+ each. I’m not sweating this category.

R
Grady and Reyes are going to give me 250+, which should help me handle slackers like Burrell and Chipper. Renteria will give me a nice boost in spot starts.

HR
I might have some trouble here, but if Bay and Burrell combine for 60, Jackson-Chipper-Sizemore combine for another 60, and Iguchi-Reyes-Martin-Young pop another 60, I should be in good shape. Whatever Tracy and Upton give me off the bench is a bonus in my eyes.

RBI
Burrell and Bay are good for 100+ each, but after that I’ve got a bunch of 70-85 RBI guys. I’ve got to hope either Delmon takes off, Chipper bounces back, or Grady goes nuts. Hey, there’s always free agency.

BA
I’ll get by. Iguchi really propped me up last year, and I’m hoping he’ll do the same this year. In a week-by-week league, this category is nothing more than “who’s players are the hottest right now.”

K
I’ve got this category in the bag. Smoltz, Hernandez, Hamels and Dice-K could K 180+ each, plus I’ll get the equivalent of another starter worth of K’s out of Nathan and K-Rod, then there’s Broxton. Unlike Wanger, Lowe might actually contribute here.

W
Eh, wins are overrated. I grabbed Lowe for the sole purpose of wins, and Smoltzie should get a couple more W’s just because he actually has a bullpen this year. Hopefully this is Felix’s year. And Hamels is for real.

SV
I almost felt bad taking the 2 best fantasy closers less than 5 picks apart, but it had to be done. I’m going to scour the waiver wire and FA pool for a third guy, but like I said earlier, I’m hoping Broxton takes over in Chavez Ravine by May.

WHIP
Lowe will hurt here as a sinkerballer, but Nathan’s brilliance will make up for it. One bad outing can kill you here, and with youngsters like Hamels and Hernandez, I could have to bear some stinkers.

ERA
Sub-4’s from almost everyone is a very real possibility, plus the closer corps will help this down. I think.

I’ve won my league 2 of the last 3 years, and I was but a SB away from the finals last year, and I’m hoping my track record shows that I actually have an idea of what I’m doing. I didn’t use any cheat sheets, I based it all on my gut, just like every year.

This should be fun. (can the damn season start already!)

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yanksblog.com Fantasy League

For me, this is my seventh draft day with the same core of players, and most years I manage two or three teams in various leagues. I’ve won a few leagues; I’ve finished in the top three in many others. While I don’t memorize 700 EqA numbers or K/BB ratios of the top starting pitchers, I do have a draft day strategy. But talking about draft strategy is boring, and everyone thinks their draft strategy is the best.

Instead, let’s look at a draft day conundrum that I know affects many fantasy players. I’ll use a friend of mine as an example.

Like me, my friends is a very big Yankee fan, but he’s not as experienced with fantasy baseball as I am. As he manages his team, he subsequently lets his emotions get in the way with his efforts to win the division. His cardinal rule, in this day and age, can be very damaging to the long-term prospects of his team. That rule? No Red Sox.

My roommate will not accept any Red Sox on his teams. If he does an auto-draft and lands a member of the hated team in Boston, he will trade the player in question in a lopsided deal. Conversely, he has a love affair with members of the Yankees.

Last season, said friend once tried to convince me that Bernie Williams was a viable fourth outfielder for a fantasy team. Now, I love Bernie, but he was hardly a viable fourth outfielder for the Yankees, let alone a fake team that largely depends on power and on-base percentage. Nevertheless, my friend loved his Yankees to the detriment of his team.

In the end, my friend won one of his leagues, but we’re not talking about an über-competitive league.

In fantasy baseball, this handicap, this blind love of the Yankees, can be very very damaging. Who wouldn’t want David Ortiz’s or Manny Ramirez’s slugging stats piling up points for his fantasy team? But if you’re anything like this obsessed Yankee fan, you can’t root for the Red Sox. You can’t bring yourself to ever cheer for David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez. And don’t eve get me started on Curt Schilling.

But to be a top-notch fantasy manager, you have to suck it up for the course of the season. If Manny Ramirez is available or David Ortiz lands in your lap early in the second round of the draft, take them. Root for the Red Sox to lose and hope they hit a bunch of inconsequential home runs and drive in a bunch of inconsequential RBIs.

Fantasy baseball really tests the limits of fandom, and sometimes, you just have to pick one over the other. To win your fantasy league, you may need to rely on players you hate. You may need that Barry Bonds, that Daisuke Matsuzaka, that Roy Halladay. And it hurts to watch them play your team. That’s just the bottom line, fan allegiances be damned.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Fantasy Friday: To root for the enemy or not