Archive for Guest Columns
Are you ready for some football?
Posted by: | CommentsSince it’s the start of the NFL season I wanted to intertwine football and the Yankees. Let’s take a look at some professional athletes with ties to the Yankees and the NFL. Which ones made the right choice?
Pat White- As has been discussed here, White was recently cut from the Miami Dolphins after being a 2nd round pick just last year. His football prospects are not looking great right now (there are rumors he received zero phone calls once cut), so it would be interesting to see if he has considered heading back to the diamond and soon after writing that White signed a deal with the Royals to return to baseball, though he may not be completely done on the gridiron. As we know, the Yankees drafted him in the 48th round of the 2009 draft, but he was also drafted three other times, in the 49th round in 2008 by the Reds, in the 27th round in 2007 by the Angels and in the 4th round in 2004 by the Angels (passing up 6 figures). He got a college education and $2.4 million guaranteed so despite his recent axing, he likely made the right choice.
John Elway- It’s pretty easy to say John Elway made the right choice, but he was a good baseball player as well. Two years before he was drafted in the NFL, the Yankees spent their 1981 2nd round pick on Elway. In 1982 he played 42 games for Oneonta and put up an impressive .318/.432/.464 line. If the Baltimore Colts didn’t cede to his trade demand, maybe he would have actually stuck with baseball. Who knows if he ever would have made it to Yankee Stadium.
Drew Henson- Drew Henson turned out to be the anti-Elway. He did stick with baseball but wasn’t quite good enough and went back to football. That didn’t work out so well either as he has appeared in just 9 NFL games with one start. Had he stuck to one sport or the other coming out of High School he definitely would have had a better chance, but we’ll never know if stepping away from the football field would have allowed him to learn how to hit a curveball.
Daunte Culpepper- Culpepper’s struggles with academics almost led him down the baseball path. While he was recruited by big schools like The U and Florida out of high school, he didn’t have the test scores to get in (seriously the couldn’t sneak him into The U?). He did find a home at the University of Central Florida where he committed to playing quarterback. Had he never found a college to call home, he just may have joined the Yankees, who drafted him in the 26th round in 1995. Culpepper must have been a pretty menacing dude on the mound at 6’4 and 250+ pounds with a great arm. There is no doubt Culpepper made the right call as he has earned a ton of money in the NFL.
Deion Sanders- Deion primarily went the football route where he became a Hall of Famer and one of the best cornerbacks of all time. He did stick around baseball long enough to play in 641 games and put up a .263/.319/.392 line, that’s not too shabby considering his two sport status. Deion was terrible as a Yankee with a 55 OPS+, and his most famous Yankee moment is probably pissing off Carlton Fisk which almost led to a brawl.
Bo Jackson- Deion and Bo were undoubtedly the biggest two sport athletes in the past 25+ years. Bo, who went on to have very successful, but injury shortened careers in both MLB and the NFL was originally drafted out of high school by the Yankees in the 2nd round in 1982 (a year after taking Elway in the 2nd round). Jackson went unsigned and chose to go to Auburn to play both football and baseball. Jackson had Hall of Fame talent in both sports, and had he stuck to one sport and avoided injury he likely would have made it. He’ll have to settle for being in the Tecmo Bowl Hall of Fame.
Dave Winfield- Mr. May definitely made the right choice in sticking to baseball and spent 9+ years with the Yankees. Along with being a first round pick in baseball (as a pitcher, no less) he was drafted in the 17th round of the NFL draft despite never playing college football. Winfield was also drafted in the both the NBA and ABA drafts. While football was probably never a serious choice he likely could have made it in pro basketball, but not with the success he enjoyed in baseball. Despite being drafted in several sports, in the recent Baseball Analysts draft, Winfield waited by the phone but never got the call. (that last sentence might not be entirely true).
Others of note: Brandon Jones of the Seattle Seahawks was drafted by the Yankees in 2001. World Cup goalie Tony Meola (ok, that’s futbol not football but he did try out for the Jets) was drafted by the Yankees.
Buyer Beware……….in 2015
Posted by: | CommentsFelix Hernandez recently became the 3rd youngest player since 1950 to reach 1000 career strikeouts. While the offseason extension he signed may have put a damper on the King Felix to NY dreams, he still will hit free agency at the age of 29. Next time around don’t expect much of a team friendly deal though, and the Yankees will certainly be in the mix barring a disaster for Felix on the way.
What are the odds of this disaster? As a young guy with a ton of pitches already on his arm, is he more predisposed to injury or burning out too soon? I decided to take a look at other pitchers who reached 1000 strikeouts before their age 26 season. Since 1950, 11 pitchers have done this. Let’s take a look at who they are and how they performed until they were 25 and how they performed from 29 (when Felix will likely become a FA) to 35.
Future Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven is 1st on the list. While he was still a very good pitcher, he saw decreases in his K/9 rate (to 6.7) and K/BB rate (to 2.79). Also, his ERA+ dropped from a stellar 132 to a decent 118. His best years certainly came before hitting 29 but he was very productive into his mid 30’s.
Everyone is aware of Dwight Gooden’s problems and his career certainly peaked early, but if his early workload was a factor(likely), it was only one of many. Doc certainly battled his demons throughout the years. Ages 29-35 were not pretty for Doc, with a 6.1 K/9, 1.44 K/BB and a 96 ERA+. He was done at the age of 35.
Sam McDowell’s last good year as a major league pitcher came at the age of 28 (after a league leading 305 innings at 27). He was done at 32. From 29-32 he was bad, with a 6.9 K/9, 1.23 K/BB and 87 ERA+. After a very solid start to his career, McDowell was out of the game at an age where Randy Johnson had just 104 wins.
Fernandomania is next. Even though he came along later than most of the guys on this group, Valenzuela still came up in an era where pitch counts were mostly ignored. While he also battled some conditioning issues, I think the workload certainly caught up to Fernando. After a stunning start to his career, Fernando’s last good season came at 25 and was less than mediocre after the age of 29. From 29-35 Fernando had a 4.8 K/9 ratio, 1.38 K/BB ratio and 91 ERA+. He retired at 36.
While Don Drysdale is in the Hall of Fame, his late career was not great and he retired at 32. From 29-32 his K/9 ratio was 5.8 with a strong 3.17 BB/9 ratio and about a league average ERA+ of 105. Leading the league in starts for 4 straight years from 25-28 (eclipsing 300 innings every year) certainly couldn’t have helped him in his twilight. He basically did nothing after the age of 28 that bolstered his Hall of Fame chances other than compile a few more wins.
Frank Tanana was a great young left handed fireballer (I’ve heard Jon Lester as a good comp.) who was one of the best pitchers in baseball before he hurt his arm. He came back and reinvented himself as a soft tosser. While he was pretty successful afterwards, he never again approached his early career success. From 29-35 he had ratios of 5.9 K/9, 2.12 K/BB and a 107 ERA+.
Denny McLain had some Gooden like off the field issues, but was out of baseball at 28 primarily due to serious arm problems. At ages 24 and 25 he threw 661 innings combined and threw just 384.1 the rest of his career. He appeared to be on his way to the Hall of Fame (114-57 thru 25) but clearly never came close. He never even reached his age 29 season, but from 26-28 he struck out just 4.3 batters per 9 with a 1.46 K/BB ratio and a 73 ERA+. The workload certainly got to McLain soon after he was old enough to rent a car.
Larry Dierker’s career got started at 17 (and think of how impressive what Jesus Montero is doing in AAA at the age of 20). Shockingly enough (or not shocking at all), Dierker was done at 30. At 29 and 30 Dierker had a 4.7 K/9, 1.34 K/BB and an 87 ERA+. Good thing he threw those 305 innings at the age of 22 though.
Former A and Yankee Catfish Hunter is up next, and while he stuck around long enough to be enshrined in Cooperstown (his worthiness is another discussion) Catfish’s career also ended early and his career as a great pitcher ended as soon as he hit 30. He actually wasn’t a great pitcher from 19-25 but racked up a ton of innings getting him plenty of strikeouts. His best years came from 25-29 but was about average after that. From 29-33 he struck out 4.5 batters per 9, had a 1.84 K/BB ratio and a 103 ERA+ that includes his 144 ERA+ at 29.
Last on the list is Joe Coleman who was done at 32 and threw just 378 innings after 29. He had a 4.9 K/9 and a 1.25 K/BB to go along with a 101 ERA+. At 18 he threw 93 innings between the minors and majors. At 19 it was 208. Too bad Tom Verducci wasn’t around to save the day.
I didn’t know what I was going to encounter when I started this post, but maybe Nolan Ryan should take a look. A lot of these guys burned out early and it would be interesting to see what they could have accomplished with today’s workloads and pitching programs. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a lot of these guys were out of the game so early, and none of them could match their early successes. While I don’t think too much can be culled from these comparisons I think it’s interesting nonetheless. Clearly Felix has been groomed differently as a big money bonus baby whose every move and pitch has been tracked since he signed. Still, there is no guarantee he will be healthy down the road, and some believe you only have so many bullets in an arm before its shot. I hope Felix is sitting there as a big free agent at 29 because that will mean continued health and success for him. If he ends up on the Yankees down the road, lets just hope he breaks the mold of the list of guys above.
Guest Post: Winning without A-Rod
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(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
The following is a guest post that comes from regular RAB commenter tommiesmithjohncarlos, and recaps all of the Yankees’ wins without Alex Rodriguez in the lineup. There have been a bunch of them, and regardless of what some may thing, the team is not better off without him.
We’ve already heard a few times how the Yankees were 12-0 (ZOMG!!!) in the games Alex Rodriguez has missed this year from various corners of the MSM and blogosphere. While we’re all smart enough to know that the team isn’t really better without Alex, I was curious to see how we were able to do so well without him nonetheless. So let’s take a stroll down memory lane.
The (now 15) games ARod hasn’t played in so far:
#24, May 2: A 12-3 hometown beatdown of Mark Buerhle/Tony Peña and the White Sox.
Lineup: Jeter-Johnson-Tex-Swish-Cano-Sado-Thames-Gardner-Peña.
Gardner had a second inning RBI single and a 4th inning solo homer; Cano hit a three-run shot in the 5th to break it open (5-0) and chase Buerhle. Swish hit a two-run shot an inning later to make it 7-0, then starting with Sado the team went double-groundout-walk-ROE-walk-double-double to plate five more runs. Hughes left after 7 frames with a 12-0 lead.
#48, May 28: An 8-2 hometown beatdown of Fausto Carmona/Tony Sipp and the Indians.
Lineup: Jeter-Granderson-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Miranda-Gardner-Peña-Moeller.
Swisher hit a two-run blast in the second and Miranda/Gardner chipped in with a bases-loaded walk and sac fly in the 6th, but it was still just 4-2 Yankees when we finally got Carmona out after 6 innings. Tony Sipp promptly loaded the bases (walking Tex, sounds familiar) to face Robbie, who hit a predictable grand slam. Game over, Hughes wins again.
#61, June 11: Andy beats Brett Myers and the Astros in an interleague tilt at YS3, 4-3.
Lineup: Jeter-Granderson-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Posada-Cervelli-Peña-Russo.
We jump on Myers in the bottom of the first with a groundout-double-walk-single-bases loaded walk-strikeout-single to plate three. Swish had the RBI BB and Cervelli hit a patented BABIP single to plate the second and third runs. In the fifth, Kevin Russo singles, steals second and scores on a Tex single to add a needed insurance run.
#62, June 12: A 9-3 hometown beatdown of the ‘Stros, this time Wandy Rodriguez who gives up 8 runs.
Lineup: Jeter-Swisher-Tex-Cano-Posada-Thames-Cervelli-Granderson-Russo.
Jeter and Hunter Pence trade leadoff solo shots in the 1st and 2nd, and it’s 2-2 in the third when Wandy gives up an RBI single to Swisher and then walks Tex and gives up a single to Cano to load the bases for Posada. I think you can guess what happens. Three innings later he issues leadoff walks to Cervelli and Granderson, chasing him from the game and summoning Jeff Fulchino, who gives up a three-run shot to Jeter for the 7th/8th/9th runs of the game.
#63, June 13: We finish the home sweep of the lowly ex-Colt .45s with a 9-5 romp over Brian Moehler and Gustavo Chacin.
Lineup: Jeter-Granderson-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Posada-Gardner-Huffman-Peña.
Hughes gives up a first inning sac fly, but Robbie ties the game in the 4th with a solo shot. A strikeout and three walks later, Ramiro Peña knocks in a run on a sac-fly (but I thought we never hit those?!?!), but Huffman ends the rally getting thrown out stretching at third. The reprieve is brief, however; after retiring Jeter to open the fifth, Moehler walks Granderson and gets Jorge to pop-up for out #2. Chacin comes in for the lefty-lefty matchup and pulls a Phil Coke, walking both Cano and Swisher to load the bases. Casey Daigle comes in to put out the electrical fire, but Jorge Posada pees all over it instead and the 3-1 lead becomes a 7-1 lead with one swing (Ed. Note: You probably remember this as the worst single pitch in baseball history. Total meatball). Hughes improves to 9-1 on the year in another slugfest.
#64, June 15: The Sabathia-Halladay duel of aces at YS3 turns out to be a cakewalk 8-3 victory.
Lineup: Jeter-Granderson-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Posada-Gardner-Cervelli-Peña.
Swish-Sado-Gardner kick it off in the second with a single-walk-GritTriple™ to plate two runs. Granderson hits a solo shot to open the next inning; after Tex flies out, Cano doubles and Swish knocks him in with a homer of his own and it’s 5-0. CC gives three back with a string of singles the very next inning, but a Tex solo shot in the fifth pushes it back to 6-3. Two innings later, Halladay is lifted for Antonio Bastardo who gets Cano and Swisher to ground out and fly out… which would have been more impressive if those two outs weren’t sandwiched between two HBPs (Tex and Sado) and a walk to Gardner to load the bases. Bastardo is replaced by David Herndon, who is no match for Frankie Cervelli’s BABIP magic single that plates two more runs.
#109, August 7: CC hiccups, but recovers to shut down the now-dead Boston Red Sox in a 5-2 home win.
Lineup: Jeter-Swisher-Tex-Cano-Posada-Berkman-Granderson-Gardner-Peña.
Victor Martinez homers to open the 2nd, and Beltre-Lowell hit consecutive doubles to put CC in an 0-2 hole early. That’s all they’d get, though: the big fella retires 20 of the next 24 Red Sox to step to the plate, giving up only a single in the third, and ROE in the 5th ,a single in the 6th and a walk in the seventh (erased on a GIDP). In the bottom of the second, the Yankees erase Boston’s lead when Lance Berkman walks and then scores on Granderson’s triple, who scores himself on a Peña groundout. Lackey then gives up four straight singles (Swish-Tex-Cano-Posada) to score two more in the 5th; in the 6th, Granderson hits a leadoff single, steals second and advances to third on the airmailed throw, and Peña’s gets him home from third again (on a single this time). Mo works a perfect ninth (as usual).
#119, August 17: CC outduels another ace – this time Justin Verlander – in a 6-2 home victory.
Lineup: Gardner-Jeter-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Posada-Thames-Granderson-Peña
The Austin Jackson leadoff solo shot is probably fresh in your memory. As is Verlander giving up a single-walk-flyout-walk-single-walk to the first six batters he faced to give that lead right back, then giving up a solo shot to Granderson in the bottom of the second. It stayed at 3-1 until Daniel Schlereth gave up a double-single combo to Gardner and Jeter (sandwiched around 3 Ks) to add a tack-on run in the 6th, then served up a leadoff homer to Cano in the 7th. And guess what, another Ramiro Peña sac fly for the 6th run a few batters later, imagine that. Somebody knows how to play smallball… CC goes 7 full, striking out 9, and the Yanks control the game start-to-finish.
#120, August 18: Moseley is kinda meh, but Bonderman is utterly bleh in a 9-5 Yankees home win.
Lineup: Gardner-Jeter-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Posada-Granderson-Kearns-Peña
Gardner opens the game with a HBP; a Jeter K later, Tex and Cano kick off the scoring with back to back bombs. Miggy the great hits two solo bombs of his own in the 2nd and 4th innings to narrow it to 3-2, but Kearns-Peña-Gardner go walk-triple-double (yes, a Ramiro triple, he’s an offensive juggernaut) to plate two insurance runs and Gardner scores the 6th run on a pair of errors by Cabrera and Ramon Santiago. Granderson adds a solo shot in the 5th, and after Tex-Swish-Cano load the bases with a single-GR double-IBB (with a Cano flyout and a Granderson K mixed in), Kearns knocks in two more with the second ground rule double of the inning to make it 9-4. Joba/Logan/Wood/Gaudin/Robertson/Rivera all come in to relieve Moseley to close out the win. Four holds, son, FOUR HOLDS!!!
#121, August 19: At YS3, Hughes bests Porcello in the First Round Phenom Matchup™, 11-5.
Lineup: Gardner-Jeter-Tex-Cano-Swisher-Posada-Granderson-Kearns-Peña
A Cabrera two-run shot in the first puts the Yanks in an early hole, but Tex and Cano start the party in the 4th with a single-single-single-flyout-single-flyout run; Swish and Granderson get the RBIs. That 2-2 tie becomes 11-2 in the 6th, as Porcello, Schlereth, Robbie Weinhardt and Eddie Bonine combine to do the following: walk to Tex, double by Cano, walk to Swisher, double by Posada – new pitcher – walk to Granderson – new pitcher – double by Kearns, groundout by Peña, passed ball walk by Gardner (followed by a stolen base), triple by Jeter – new pitcher – groundout by Tex, 2-run homer by Cano, single by Swisher, and finally a groundout by Jorge to end the frame. BOOM. Back up the truck.
#123, August 21: The team bounces back from King Felix’s gem to pound Seattle 9-5 at YS3.
Lineup: Jeter-Swisher-Teixeira-Cano-Thames-Posada-Kearns-Granderson-Nuñez
Javy Vazquez only made it 3 innings, giving up four runs (three via solo homer to Russell Branyan and Ichiro… twice). But the Yankees matched those 4 runs in the second inning, with Jeter and Tex hitting a single and a double, getting knocked in on Robbie’s single; one batter later, Posada dumped one over the wall to bring himself and Cano home. Jason Vargas kept it at 4-4 until the seventh, when Kearns-Granderson-Nuñez-Jeter-Swisher-Teixeira hit four straight singles followed by a walk and a sac fly to plate three more runs and knock the starter out. The next inning, Posada, Gardner and Granderson reached on a walk-single ROE, scoring a run, and then Ramiro “Mr. Sac Fly” Peña did his thing again to knock in Gardner from third and make it 9-4. Win, baby.
#124, August 22: CC dominates and the intentional walk haunts the M’s again in a 10-0 home romp.
Lineup: Jeter-Swisher-Teixeira-Cano-Thames-Posada-Kearns-Gardner-Nuñez
Austin Kearns’s solo homer in the 4th was a nice appetizer. An inning later, after a walk and a single to Jeter and Swish, Tex got IBB’d to load the bases for the cleanup hitter (again) and Cano smacked a granny (again). Seriously, we have been coming to this same party for the last twelve years, and in no way is that depressing. That 5-0 lead would have been more than enough for The Big Stoppa, but in the 6th Jeter chipped in with a sac fly and two walks later Cano knocked in two more with a single, then the next inning Posada hit a solo shot and an inning after that “Big Game” Ramiro Peña singled and scored on a Marcus Thames baseknock. 10 runs for the Yanks versus only 9 total baserunners (only two of whom even reached third base safely) allowed by CC, Wood, and Joba. That’s a beatdown.
#125, August 23: The Ivanova/Jose Bitchtista Game. I think we remember that. 2-3 L in Canadia.
Lineup: Gardner-Swisher-Tex-Cano-Posada-Granderson-Nuñez-Peña-Cervelli.
#126, August 24: Tuesday. Fun Fact: We scored as many runs as “Rzepczynski” has in his last name. 11-5 W up north.
Lineup: Jeter-Swisher-Tex-Cano-Thames-Posada-Kearns-Granderson-Nuñez.
#127, August 25: Yesterday
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Summary: We went 12-0 in the first 12 games ARod missed, all of which were at home, BTW. We then lost the Bitchtista game, rebounded the next day, and then lost last night. We scored a ton of runs in almost every game, because ARod or no ARod, we’re good at scoring a ton of runs.
Really good.
The lesson here is this team is so packed with awesome goodness that we can afford to miss ARod for a few games and always put a studly lineup out there and back it up with top-shelf pitching. (Oh, and it helps to have the bench scrubs kick in a few timely BABIP singles or sac flies and make the void ARod vacated remain productive.)
The league should fear us. Deep and thick, baby.
Cashman’s best offseason move
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Credit: Sipkin/New York Daily News
Brian Cashman had a tough offseason coming into 2010. While many of his moves made sense at the time, several of Cashman’s offseason trades and signings have not worked out. Nick Johnson is likely out for the season after less than 100 plate appearances. Javy Vazquez has at least provided innings, but otherwise has been much worse than expected. Curtis Granderson, so far, has not rebounded from his poor 2009 and will need to hope Kevin Long can get him straightened out with an overhaul of his swing. Chan Ho Park and Randy Winn, again signings that made sense, were disasters. All of this brings me to one move that Cashman nailed in the offseason: Marcus Thames.
Thames was brought in to mash left handed pitching. Cash likely had some visions of Thames playing the OF, but the injury to Johnson has for the most part left Thames in the DH role. That’s a good thing. Thames is a butcher in the outfield, but we knew this before he was signed. Keep him out of the outfield at all costs. Despite doing everything asked of him and more, Thames has seemed to get no love this year which is unfortunate.
It started for Thames in spring training when he could not buy a hit. He went 7 for 52 putting up a stunning .135/.182/.269 line. Just 33 at-bats into spring training people already wanted Thames cut (Ed. Note: Like this idiot). Small sample size be damned, people were killing the Thames signing and instead wanted the Yankees to keep Jamie Hoffmann, or explore the Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield market. Luckily cooler heads prevailed and Thames made the cut.
Thames shining moment of the season, when he was finally appreciated by the majority of fans quickly disappeared. On Monday May 17th Thames did the thing that Yankees fans might enjoy most for a regular season game. Hit a walkoff against Jonathan Papelbon. It doesn’t get much better than that, and remember, Paps is a right handed pitcher, so it wasn’t what Thames was brought in for. If Thames had struck out there I would not have been surprised nor pissed at him, it’s not his primary role. 24 hours later of course it all came crashing down as Thames dropped a ball in the outfield that led to a Yankees loss, again against the Sox. Thames was nearly in tears after the game; probably as much for the reception he would get from fans as he was for blowing the game. Again though, Thames was outside of his element, he had no business being in the field in the 9th inning of a close game.
Getting back to Thames’ actual role he could not be doing a better job. He is hitting .343/.416/.448 off left handed pitchers. More shockingly Thames is even destroying right handed pitchers this year to the tune of a .283/.386/.500 line. For a guy who was only brought in to hit lefties, could he have possibly brought more to the table than he has?
A trade deadline The Boss would be proud of
Posted by: | CommentsDespite already having the best record in baseball and a budget (albeit flexible) at its limit, the Yankees owned the trade deadline in a way that would make George Steinbrenner proud. They got big names in Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood because they were willing to take on salary and not let money get in the way of improving the team. They also did this without sacrificing any major pieces for their future. There was no trading Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps, just signing the checks that other franchises were unwilling to write.
In fact, the Red Sox were in on Wood as well, but wouldn’t take on as much salary. The Sox wouldn’t take on the $1.5 million the Yankees were willing to pay to get Wood (Beware, that link is for John Tomase who’s not the most credible of writers). So the Red Sox, who by inquiring on Wood think they are still in the race (and they are) let a few hundred thousand dollars get in the way of obtaining him. Much like the Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira pursuits, the Red Sox had their chance and came up short when it came time to open the wallet (I guess they should have sold a few more memberships to Red Sox Nation). Can you imagine how thrilled George would be to know this?
While the Astros did pick up a significant portion of Berkman’s salary, the Yankees still needed to commit to paying Berkman, having a down year, $3.1 million for 2 months of regular season work plus hopefully the playoffs. Considering they have already committed $5.5 million to the DH position in Nick Johnson and we’re in a recession, this was not a tiny pill to swallow. While upgrading the DH position in a big way was more of a want than a need, they saw an opportunity to strike with the biggest cost being money. Again they went for it, and again, the Boss would be proud.
There were concerns after Steinbrenner’s passing that Hal would run the team more as a business and less as a fan leading the Yankees to cut back on spending going forward. So far so good however, as the decision makers decided the increased payroll was worth the increased chances of winning it all. Did the Yankees, as constructed on July 29th, have a chance to win the World Series? Of course they did. Do the Yankees, on August 1st have a better chance of winning the World Series? Of course they do. Not only did the Yankees step up to the plate and take their shot, but for the most part their main competitors didn’t as the Red Sox and Rays didn’t wow anyone with their deadline moves. Give credit to the guys signing the checks this year and know that what they pulled off the past few days would make the old man proud.
Dan Haren and the three bears
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Dan Haren. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
By now you’ve been inundated with rumor after rumor and discussion after discussion on how much value the Yankees would give up to receive D-Backs pitcher Dan Haren. The Yankees have said that they’re not willing to give up Joba Chamberlain, Ivan Nova, Z-Mac, Banuelos and eating salary. No, I have no new news to report. With other teams balking and Arizona hemorrhaging cash, it makes sense for the Yankees to wait it out and see the asking price drop. So what would you give up to get Haren? Remember, we’re talking the most you’d put toward the center of the table.
There are very good reasons to pursue Haren –he’s a borderline ace/great #2 with a very attractive below-market contract, which would give the team a great second starter, keep Hughes’ inning limit in check, and really hedge their other rotation concerns. No need to rush Andy, and it also limits some lingering concerns about AJ Burnett.
On the other side, Haren really isn’t a need, that’s still around $30 million they’d be adding to payroll, at present it would be a heavy prospect loss, and the addition may adversely impact the pursuit of Cliff Lee.
Before I get to my own personal high offer, let’s first knock down a few points.
Selling Low?
People continue to say the Yankees would be “selling low” on Joba to trade him off when he’s pitching so poorly. Yet, I don’t see it that way. Clearly, his value is high for the Diamondbacks. Their bullpen is remarkably inept. Maybe they overvalue the impact of closers. Whatever the case, if his value now is high enough to be the main piece that gets a top 20 pitcher in baseball (while giving up what appear to be 2 back-end rotation guys, a promising mature lefty in Banuelos), isn’t that enough for Yankee fans? What could Joba get you if you ‘sold high’ on him? He’s going to hit arbitration soon, and for this team he’s been a very mixed bag. Dan Haren is probably the ceiling on what Joba could get you if his value is much higher. And Dan Haren on a team-friendly deal is not a bad thing at all.
Beyond that, as Artisteve at TYU points out, it doesn’t appear the Yankees have much faith in Joba as a starter going forward. From their perspective that’s not unreasonable (though I think they’ve botched the handling along the way, though Joba certainly should be as responsible for his performances; hard to gauge). If you think Dan Haren would be overall more valuable for the team over the next three years than Nova, Joba, Z-Mac, and Banuelos would be, you certainly pull the trigger.
However, there is more to that. I saw a great comment yesterday, one that Moshe Mandel of TYU pointed out. steve (different one) notes that contrary to the belief of some, it’s not that one player holds up the deal, but rather, adding that one additional piece that tips the scales in the wrong direction. Maybe losing Joba isn’t a big deal. Maybe even adding the salary of Haren and giving up Nova is something they’d be willing to do. But an additional piece, an asset they clearly value, like Banuelos or Z-Mac is just too much for them. That asset would be there to offset some kind of other loss, and thus, would be too steep a price for what the team may consider just a luxury. At the same token, you can’t just offer up Nova, Z-Mac and Ramiro Pena and expect them to jump. That porridge is too cold.
The Dollar, Dollar Bills, Y’all
On the financial side, it preliminarily looks like it could work. Financially, the team should have close to $80 million coming off payroll next year. Of course, with Jeter and Mariano, you’re probably looking at $30 million next season in contracts. So we’re down to $50. And even with Haren, you’d still be looking at another pitcher at over $11 million, so we’re down to $24-25 million. (Drop even further if that pitcher next year is Cliff Lee.)
Heard this: It could be Andy's last year. Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP
With the bullpen needing some improvement and the DH situation looking cloudy, in addition to arbitration to Hughes, salary jumps to Teix, Granderson, and Swisher, we’re probably down to around $18 million. Of course, this is all highly dependent on a myriad of factors, but let’s be clear — there is a very good chance that Haren and Lee for around $32 million is a realistic possibility next year. It’s basically Andy, Javy and Kei Igawa being replaced by those two.
But I want it now!
On a personal level, I’d be a bit disappointed if the Yankees didn’t get Haren, even if it’s Joba, Nova, Z-Mac and (gulp) Banuelos. That’s right, push comes to shove, it’s five minutes before the trade deadline, I include Banuelos, Nova, Z-Mac and Joba, while taking on Chris Snyder (I’ll explain in a bit) and the salary of Haren (which is a completely reasonable salary considering his performance). Of course, there’s no reason to bet against oneself, so I suspect the price tag will drop, but I could live with that offer.
Banuelos, to me, is the hardest part of that. While there’s certainly value in back-end starters like Nova and Z-Mac, I don’t have a terrible amount of faith in them, and they have far more value as trade pieces to the Yankees than they do as actual players. Joba, if not given the opportunity and right amount of leash to be a top-flight starter, holds below-average value to the Yankees. I like Joba as a talent, but he may not suit the needs and philosophy of the organization, at least not this year, probably not next year either. Banuelos is a tantilizing talent. A lefty with great poise and very good stuff, he could be a star some day. But he might not be. He’s under 20-years-old and in A-ball. It would be a damn shame to lose him, but there are still a few levels for him to jump and he’s still a “prospect”. Tough to swallow, but if that’s what helps get an established #1.5 starter, I’m willing.
Chris Snyder is an overpaid pseudo-backup catcher, but a fairly good player. He has 15 HR pop, good on-base skills, and is defensively a pretty good catcher. The team could legitimately pair him with Jorge Posada for the rest of the season, who’s missed quite a bit of time to a host of nagging injuries over the past few years. Boom, there’s your DH, even if Jorge does whine about it. If nothing else, limiting the playing time of Francisco Cervelli is a big benefit to the lineup. (Sorry, Blue Eyes.)
D-backs catcher Chris Snyder. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
With Snyder being under contract only through 2011 (albeit with a moderate-sized buyout in 2012), Montero could work as a rotating DH with Jorge. Montero, under this scenario, would be splitting time at catcher with Snyder. Snyder’s gone in 2012, where it seems a good bet Romine would be ready, at least in some capacity. Either way, Snyder (for $5.5 million) may be a little expensive, but a short contract that fills a need and allows a good deal of lineup versatility. Considering the other catchers are either some-glove, no-bat or all-bat, no-glove, I think that’s reasonable, though if they could pay half of that cost, it would be gravy. Hell, trade them Cervelli if they eat some of Snyder’s salary.
Dan Haren would of course slot behind CC and Hughes would return to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. I’ve been extremely pleased with Phil’s performance on a whole this year, but he’s near his innings limit and has had some trouble finishing off batters over the course of the season. With Joba gone, the latter part of the bullpen would appear in much better shape.
Moving to next year, it’s not unreasonable to think a 1-5 of CC, Lee, Haren, Hughes, AJ is possible. Haren may or may not knock Lee’s price down this off-season, and if nothing else, provides some sort of contingency plan if CC decides to opt-out and takes the Yankees on an expensive joyride. Don’t underestimate the closing of the Yankees’ window. Jeter, Mariano, Posada, A-Rod may not have many more very good seasons left. Adding two of the top pitchers for the next few years could do a tremendous amount to strike while they still can.
So having rambled for 1200 words, I ask what, if anything, your max offer for Dan Haren would be? Remember, it needs to be a bit painful. (Unless it’s Betemit and Jeff Marquez for Swisher, of course.)
For more of my incessant chatter, check out Mystique and Aura (though I’ve been busy at work lately and you won’t find much current information to check out. But whatevs, if you’re there, look at Steve’s stuff. He’s a less-neglectful parent).
The Joba conundrum from someone who’s been there
Posted by: | CommentsA few weeks back I had the chance to meet Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster. I’ll start off by saying he was an extremely nice, down to earth guy, and from now on I’m a fan of his. While I only had a few minutes to talk to him, my first question was what he thought the Yankees should do with Joba Chamberlain. As a pitcher who has had success in both the rotation and then pen, I was intrigued on what he had to say on the subject.
Dempster first said they need to just make up their minds one way or another, which I completely agree with. The bouncing around Joba has been through isn’t helping anyone and they need to make a decision and stick with it. It’s pretty interesting to note, that while Dempster has pitched in both roles, in his 12 full seasons, he had a defined role and wasn’t switched back and forth. The closest he had to being bounced around was in 2005 where his first 6 appearances were starts and he spent the rest of the season in the bullpen. That is clearly the easy way to transition, from the rotation to the pen not the other way around. There’s no building up of innings or stamina, and once he was moved to the pen, he stuck.
Dempster believes, primarily because of pitching in the AL East, that Joba should probably remain in the bullpen. He mentioned the way lineups wear you down and how the pitch counts can grow pretty quickly, especially for a guy like Joba who racks up a lot of strikeouts. While I do disagree with him in that I am fully in the Joba as a starter camp, it is interesting to think about what Joba’s career path might have been like coming up in another division, or even in the NL as a starter. Obviously there’s no way the Yankees can ease their starters into the big leagues against weaker competition than the AL East, but the bullpen might be the way to go, as long as there is a set path to get a good young pitcher back to the rotation. While both Joba and Hughes have somewhat followed this path, it wasn’t by design, instead it was by necessity.
After talking with Dempster I decided to take a look at his career arc and found that after his time in the bullpen he became a much better starter. Phil Hughes may have gotten a boost in confidence last year in the pen, but Dempster had a full 3 seasons of relieving, and came out of it significantly improved in the rotation. In his 3 years as a starter before going to the pen Dempster had a 4.6 BB/9 ratio and a 6.9 K/9 ratio. In the three years since he’s been back in the rotation he’s at 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9, all coming in the NL. While there are likely a ton of reasons why Dempster improved, I wouldn’t be shocked if spending time in the pen was one of the main factors. As much as I want Joba in the rotation (and wanted him there for 2010), I really hope he can take advantage of his time in the bullpen to help him as a starter down the road.
My few minutes with Dempster certainly made me think about what’s going to happen with Joba’s future and how the (hopefully) temporary banishment to the bullpen (and yes, it was a demotion) makes him better down the road As much as I want Joba in the rotation (and wanted him there for 2010), I really hope he can take advantage of his time in the bullpen to help him as a starter down the road (even if with the Diamondbacks).
2010 All Star Game Thread
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It's a good day for a smile. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
It’s time once again for the Midsummer Classic, the game’s most important exhibition of stars. The AL should win it for home field advantage and win it for George. He was the biggest star of all.
Coverage starts at 8 p.m. on Fox, and Major League Baseball will offer a moment of silence in honor of the Boss prior to the start of the game. Here are Charlie Manuel’s and Joe Girardi‘s lineups:
National League
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Martin Prado, 2B
Albert Pujols, 1B
Ryan Howard, DH
David Wright, 3B
Ryan Braun, LF
Andre Ethier, CF
Corey Hart, RF
Yadier Molina, C
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP
American League
Ichiro, RF
Derek Jeter, SS
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Josh Hamilton, CF
Vladimir Guerrero, DH
Evan Longoria, 3B
Joe Mauer, C
Robbie Cano, 2B
Carl Crawford, LF
David Price, SP
Give CC his due
Posted by: | CommentsDoes one of the C’s in CC Sabathia stand for consistent? He is among the most sure things in baseball for a starting pitcher, and I think it’s this consistency that often has CC overlooked. When he was with briefly with Milwaukee he was mentioned as among the best pitchers in baseball, if not the best. In the year and a half since signing with the Yankees, those mentions have slowed, if not come to a full stop. Should they have?
Any conversation about the best pitchers in baseball undoubtedly includes Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter and others. CC’s name is often left out. There are a few main factors which contribute to this: 1. He’s moved to the AL East, clearly the best division in baseball and toughest to pitch in. 2. He’s a high priced Yankee free agent signing. The MSM loves to gloss over the “Core Four” but the hired guns of the Yankees don’t get as much love, as they are often treated as mercenaries. CC doesn’t get bashed like A-Rod does, but he probably had has many glowing articles written about him nationally in his 3 months in Milwaukee as he has in a year and a half in pinstripes. 3. CC is historically a slow starter, so he doesn’t jump out of the gate fast with eye popping numbers. While I know ERA isn’t the best stat out there for pitchers (or close) I will consider it for the sake of this post as I’m questioning the lack of CC love in the mainstream.
What really brought this to my attention was a chat in April/May with Rob Neyer. He listed Lincecum, Greinke, Halladay, Hernandez, Haren and “Your favorite Cardinal” as the best pitchers in baseball. Those guys are all great, but considering the league switch, should Haren, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lincecum automatically be considered better than CC? When asked about CC, Neyer replied “At the moment, no. He was among the very best when his K/BB ratio was in the 4-5 range. Since joining the Yankees he’s been under 3. Still plenty good, but not mystical.” Isn’t that simple statement explained by joining the Yankees in the AL East? Also of note, a follow up question the next week asked “You mentioned that CC isn’t on the level of the top pitchers in the league, and that when he gets hi K/BB ratio in the 4-5 range, it would be a better argument. Am I missing something, but little Timmy has never had a K/BB ratio in the 4′s for an entire season?” Neyer’s retort “No, he hasn’t. But his HR rate has been absurdly low. Sabathia’s a different sort of pitcher.”
Seriously? Lincecum’s HR is absurdly low not only because he’s a great pitcher, but he pitches in the NL, in an extreme pitchers park, in a division where he also gets to pitch in pitchers parks like LA and San Diego. If CC were pitching in San Francisco, even if his K/BB rate didn’t improve (which it undoubtedly would), wouldn’t his HR rate likely become “absurdly low?” While it’s a small sample size, it’s interesting to note that in CC’s 17 National League starts, his HR rate was 0.4/9. That’s the definition of absurdly low Rob. CC’s HR/9 in Interleague play is 0.5/9 (in 242 innings). Again, absurdly low.
Ubaldo Jimenez got off to a great start in 2010 (and has since, predictably, tailed off) but still hasn’t been as a good as CC was in Milwaukee and has a much shorter track record than CC had by the time he got to Milwaukee. Yet Ubaldo had a ton of articles written comparing him to Bob Gibson a month ago, while CC had articles written about how he can only beat the Orioles (written by a moron, but written and published nonetheless). Ubaldo has been fantastic this year, but can anyone really say he’s a better pitcher than CC? I’m not ready to, not by a long shot.
While the Greinke love has tailed off this year, he’s still a great pitcher and deserves to be discussed among the best in baseball. But better than CC? I don’t think you can say that with any certainty. His 2009 was otherworldly, and better than any season CC has had, but he hasn’t been as good as CC this year when using MSM stats and has been a very similar pitcher by more advanced metrics. Again, considering ERA as the MSM would, Greinke’s ERA is 3.10 since 2007 (including time in the pen) and CC’s is 3.05. Greinke was fantastic last year, but to simply use a one year sample to put him in the best in baseball conversation and leave CC out is shortsighted. It comes back to CC’s consistency. He hasn’t had an off the charts season from April to October, so his peak just hasn’t been as memorable. CC doesn’t have a 2.16 ERA like Greinke (only once under 3, never in the AL), so his consistency is almost a downfall. If he had a 4.10 ERA in 2007 and a 2.00 ERA in 2008, he’d have roughly the same 3.05 cumulative ERA, but in the minds of many, having one off the charts season would make him seem like a better pitcher. Hell, if you had polled around baseball before last October, many of the experts would tell you Josh Beckett is as good as CC. It ain’t close.
Without delving into the case of every top pitcher in baseball, it’s wrong to dismiss CC as not being amongst the best. Neyer mentioned Haren, Carpenter/Wainwright, and doesn’t consider CC in their class? Really? Even Neyer, who for the most part knows his stuff (except for the “Yankees clearly don’t care about defense” nonsense), and should understand the difference in leagues (and divisions within the leagues) made it a point to leave CC out. He didn’t forget CC, he specifically stated reasons why CC wasn’t among the top pitchers in baseball. You can tell me that Felix and Halladay are better than CC and I won’t make much of an argument. Neyer somehow even managed to leave out future Yankee Cliff Lee (was he subconsciously already fitting him for pinstripes?), whom you could certainly make a case for being among the best, but when you tell me that all of those are guys are definitely better than CC, I have to disagree.
For more of my work head over to Mystique and Aura.
The Leverage Argument: A SABRmetric-phobe’s guide
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Photo Credit: Charles Krupa, AP
There are few things in baseball more frustrating than a blow lead, and the Yankees’ shaky bullpen has broken our hearts on more than one occasion this season. Joe Girardi generally does a pretty good job managing his bullpen, but there’s always a better way to deploy your best relievers.
Written by Rebecca of This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes and You Can’t Predict Baseball fame, this guest piece breaks down the concept of using your best reliever in the most important spot of the game for everyone who’s adverse to baseball’s statistical revolution.
Q: What is the leverage argument?
A: The leverage argument states that a manager should use his best pitcher at the game’s most critical points.
Q: So you mean, like, CC Sabathia should be pitching the ninth inning?
A: Well, no. A CC Sabathia who’s pitched eight other innings is probably not as sharp as a Mariano Rivera who hasn’t pitched any that day, and the ninth inning is not necessarily the most important part of the game.
Q: What do you mean the ninth inning isn’t the most important part of the game?
A: Well, in many games, a team will take a lead early in the game, in the first or second inning, and then lead and build on that throughout the game, so that by the eighth inning, they might be up by six runs, than say the one run they led by in the second.
Q: So then you’re saying Mariano Rivera should pitch the second inning?
A: Again, no. Unless your fifth starter is the April 2009 version of Chien Ming Wang, your starting pitcher is always going to be more valuable than the reliever. The leverage argument focuses primarily on what occurs after the starting pitcher has been removed from the game. This will, hopefully for your team, take place in the latter three innings, and not in the second or third inning, unless something’s gone horribly wrong.
Q: All right, hold up a sec and help me out here: how do you determine what the most important part of the game is?
A: Well, if you want to be technical about it, you can go and look at the WPA graphs on Fangraphs (they’re the graphs the RABbis post in the recap after every game with that line that goes ziggy zag zig wheee or zag zig zag oof, and the bars underneath, where the higher the bar, the more crucial that play was in that game).
However, if anything remotely math-y or graph-y rubs you the wrong way, the most important points of the game are pretty much any point in which the lead is in danger of changing from one team to the other. Like on Saturday, the Yankees had the bases loaded with no one out, that was a high leverage situation, because the likelihood that Toronto’s 2-0 lead would go bye-bye became much higher than it would be had the bases been empty and there been two out.
Really, most of the time it’s pretty easy to tell when it’s a high leverage situation–the crowd will get loud because their team is rallying or groan because Joba’s busy imploding again, for example.
That said, here’s the key thing, the thing so important that I’m bolding it: the importance of the ninth inning is nil if you can’t get through the eighth, and the eighth is not important if you can’t get through the seventh.
Q: Okay, I see your point, but you can’t have Mariano pitch the seventh, I mean, what about the saves?
A: Saves are a stupid stat. Did you know that in the game Texas won in 2007 30-3 against Baltimore, they got a save because the same guy, who wasn’t the starter, pitched the final three innings?
Q: But still! I mean, you can’t have Mariano pitch the seventh, eighth and ninth, the dude’s bloody forty years old!
A: Understood. I didn’t say the leverage argument wasn’t without risk. If the most critical point of the game happens in the seventh inning–like it did in Game 5 of the 2009 ALCS, then the leverage argument says you have Rivera pitch the seventh. It means that Joba or Robertson or pitcher X pitches the eighth and the ninth, but I revert back to the bolded statement above: the eighth and ninth won’t matter (as much) if you blow the lead in the seventh inning. The idea is that you get the lead, and keep it: walk offs and dramatic home runs are awesome and everything, but to be in that situation means that you’re relying on an awful lot of pure luck.
Q: Okay, so the Yankees are up 1-0 in the seventh in Game Seven of the World Series and the Dodgers are sending up Russell Martin, Blake DeWitt and Clayton Kershaw. The Yankees should go to Mo?
A: Well, not necessarily. Those three, right now, are the bottom of the Dodger lineup (and we presume this game is at Dodger Stadium). The situation is important, but if you’re winning 1-0, and it’s game seven, chances are CC is busy being CC and cruising. You know that in the eighth inning the Dodgers have Furcal, Eithier and Kemp due up (theoretically much better hitters than the bottom three), and thus that is perhaps more likely to be the more crucial situation.
That said, once Martin or DeWitt reach base, the complexion changes because then, barring ye olde GIDP, Furcal or Eithier will bat in that inning. That’s when you ring the phone and tell Mariano to start tossing.
Q: But what if DeWitt hits a home run?
A: It’s baseball, stuff happens. The leverage argument is about playing probabilities, and doing your best to use those probabilities to your advantage.
Q: That sounds much too much like sabermetrics.
A: Well, it is. That said, you don’t need statistics to tell you that Albert Pujols is more likely to hit Chan Ho(me run) Park than Mariano Rivera or that Chad Gaudin will probably find Juan Pierre and easier out than, say, Manny Ramirez.
Q: Okay, I get you, but this still seems really risky. What if Joe Girardi did go to Mariano in the eighth on Saturday and then Joba blew the lead in the ninth?
A: Alas, it’s one of the risks you’re going to run. That said, think about it like this: would you prefer to be tied 1-1 going into the ninth, or have a 1-0 lead going into the ninth?
The real point, here, however, is what happens when your team is on the road in extra innings. Most managers (still) won’t use their closer on the road in extras, saving them for save opportunities that may never actually materialize. Yet, us Yankee fans got lucky on the last Yankee road trip: two extra inning games preceding off days, Joe Girardi elected to use Mariano Rivera to pitch the bottom of the ninth, instead of other relievers he had at his disposal. The Yankees were lucky enough to score runs in the tenth inning both times, and because the off day allowed him to do so, Girardi went back to Mariano for the tenth inning.
The Yankees won both games.
Q: All right, you got me hooked. Where should I go?
A: Fangraphs and their WPA charts are my favorite, but you may also find Baseball Reference or the Leverage Indexes posted at The Hardball Time useful as well. Mind, these guys get very into it, actually calculating numbers to determine which situations (ie, how many men on base, how many out, the inning, etc) are more critical than others. It’s a baseball stat nerd’s dream, but you don’t need to get that complicated to understand the point.
Q: So what’s the point?
A: The ninth (or even the eighth) inning is not necessarily the most important inning of the game, and boxing in relievers as “the eighth inning guy” or “the closer” without allowing for an occasional adjustment as circumstances warrant can come back to bite you in the ass. Almost everything about a bullpen and the game of baseball is malleable; use it to your advantage.
Q: You’re still mad at Joba, aren’t you?
A: Yes.
