Archive for Hot Stove League
The Pros and Cons of Rich Aurilia
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As the Yankees sit around twiddling their thumbs while running out the clock on the offseason, the only thing left for them to do is fill out the edges of their roster with fringy players on minor league contracts. One such player let it be known that he’d like to secure one of those contracts, as Rich Aurilia announced to the world that he’d like to keep his career alive with either the Mets or Yankees. He grew up in Brooklyn, had his number retired by my old little league, and starred at St. John’s before turning pro, so it only makes sense that the 38-year-old wants to ride into the sunset while playing near home. Unfortunately for Aurilia, he makes no sense for the Bombers.
Essentially a league average player for most of his career, Aurilia enjoyed a great … um … career year back in 2001, whacking a career high 37 homers with a career high 146 OPS+. His next highest totals are 23 and 115, respectively, so make of it what you will. HowEVA, over the last three years, during which the Giants paid him a grand total of $9M, Aurilia compiled a .261-.310-.376 batting line with a .308 wOBA in close to 1,000 plate appearances. Ramiro Pena hit .287-.317-.383 with a .312 wOBA for the Yanks last year, which puts Aurilia’s sucktitude in perspective. He was so bad in 2009 (.213-.256-.279) that the team had to make up injuries to get him on the disabled list and off the roster. “Regardless of what the transactions said, I was healthy,” said Aurilia, who hit the DL twice in the second half for vaguely described foot issues.
As if it’s bad enough that he can’t hit anymore, Aurilia doesn’t even provide much versatility these days either. Once a legit utility infielder, he’s been relegated to mostly first and some third base in the last few years. The last time Aurilia played either middle infield spot was 2008 (three whole innings at second), and the last time he played either with any regularity was 2006. Jeff Zimmerman’s age-adjusted UZR projections are kind, projecting Aurilia to post exactly league average UZR’s at the three non-shortstop infield spots in 2010. Regardless, there’s no way you could count on Aurilia to be anything more than below average anywhere on the field. And do I even need to bring up his atrocious baserunning skills (-3.2 EqBRR since 2007)? Eh, I guess I just did.
If Aurilia is really looking for an opportunity to make a big league team for that one last chance at a ring, then he’s (oddly) better off going to the Mets given their unsettled bench and perpetual risk for a spot opening up by a catastrophic and hilarious injury. Either way, we’d all just be waiting for the inevitable “Rich Aurilia To Retire” post at the end of March. If Aurilia wants to stay in the game and near home next year, the best thing he could do is accept a coaching position with either Double-A Trenton or Short Season Staten Island. Other than that … you’re out of luck Richie.
Photo Credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez, AP
Did the Yanks make a mistake by passing on Reed Johnson?
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Just a few days after the Yankees brought Randy Winn aboard the Dodgers struck by signing Reed Johnson, who was also in consideration for the left field spot in the Bronx at some point as well. When the deal was first reported, I said it would be interesting to see how much money Johnson got compared to Winn, who was the recipient of the Yankees’ last $2M. As it turns out, the Dodgers landed Johnson for just $800,000, which makes the Winn contract look just awful.
It’s not that Winn is overpaid compared to the value he provides, in fact if he’s just a one win player in 2010 (something he’s been in every single one of his full seasons in the bigs) then the Yankees are getting a slight bargain. However with the market like it is and compared to his peers like Johnson, Winn is overpaid. Obviously there’s a lot more going on here than just what appears on the surface, and we have no idea what went on behind the scenes. Winn was reportedly ready to accept another offer (from the Nationals) and he certainly leveraged that against the Yanks, and Johnson may have taken a bit of a discount to go back to Southern California, where he grew up. We have no idea how (or if) those factors came into play.
But getting back to the players, the idea was that the Yanks were looking to bring in a righty hitting outfielder to platoon with Brett Gardner, and Johnson seemed perfect for the role. He’s a career .313-.378-.463 hitter against southpaws, compared to Winn who’s hit .280-.332-.426 off lefties in his career and just .158-.184-.200 against them in 2009. There’s just no disputing that Johnson was a far better fit for that role, however the game doesn’t end in the batter’s box.
Just looking at the players the Yankees have vying for bench spots – Winn, Ramiro Pena, Jamie Hoffmann, Greg Golson, Frankie Cervelli – it’s easy to see that the team is emphasizing defensive competence with their reserves. Johnson’s defense has been a mixed bag, as he’s posted an above average +5.4 UZR in 106 defensive games in left over the last three seasons, so it’s a nice number in a not large sample. Most of his recent action has come in center (just 21 games in right over the last three seasons), where he’s posted a -6.0 UZR in 121 defensive games. We’ve already discussed the fact that Winn is one of the best defensive corner outfielders (and best baserunners) in the game here, so the run prevention smiley face goes on Winn’s paper.
The prevailing thought is that the Yankees are susceptible to lefty relievers in the late innings with the likes of Curtis Granderson and Gardner hitting towards the bottom of the lineup, and that’s certainly true, but it’s not like Johnson has set the world on fire as a pinch hitter. In 90 career pinch hitting appearances, he’s a .238-.303-.375 hitter, and if we’re going to trash Winn for 125 at-bats vs. lefties in 2009, it would be hypocritical to not denounce Johnson for his small sample size shortcomings. And the Yankees aren’t a team that pinch hits all that much anyway (97 total pinch hitting appearances in 2009, most of which came when they were resting players in September), so we’re talking about a situation that might pop up once or twice a week.
Yes, giving Randy Winn $2M next season is drastically overpaying considering to how the market shook out, however we’re talking about a spare outfielder and the 23rd or 24th man on the roster. Overpaying that guy for one season isn’t a big deal, especially for the Yanks. Johnson is a nice player, but as fans we tend to focus on just one aspect of a player’s game and trick ourselves into thinking they’re more (or less) than they really are, and that seems to have definitely happened with these two players given their production against lefthanders. CHONE projects Winn for 0.8 WAR in 2010, Johnson got a whopping 0.1 WAR. Sure, Reed Johnson hits lefties well, but Randy Winn does everything else better. The price is definitely wrong, but the player is right.
Photo Credit: Paul Beaty, AP
Report: Mauer agrees to 10-year extension (UPDATE: No he didn’t)
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate (4:31pm): Buster Olney is shooting the report down now. So much for that.
4:20pm: First it was Felix Hernandez, and now another drool-worthy future free agent target is off the market. Via MLBTR, AL MVP Joe Mauer has agreed to a 10-year contract extension with the Twins, locking him up until the ripe old age of 37. No word on the money yet, but I would think it’s over $200M. Good for him, good for the Twins, good for baseball, bad for the Yanks.
Imagining the sole situation in which Johnny Damon returns to New York
Posted by: | CommentsPreface
In no way do I believe the Yankees will do this, nor do I think they should. Johnny Damon had an excellent pinstriped tenure that ended with a World Series title. Retaining him seemed like an option, but only if his contract demands fell into the Yankees’ desired range. That didn’t happen, and the Yankees moved on. While I’d love to see Johnny back in the lineup this year, it’s so unlikely at this point that I had to concoct this crazy scenario. As the price for acquiring one year of Damon, it hardly seems worth the trouble.
The set-up
In the MLB Rumors and Rumblings section of his Weekend Update on Baseball Prospectus, John Perrotto mentioned Damon’s desire to play for the Rays, citing his nearby residence in Orlando. In the next sentence, Perrotto drops the bomb. “He has not completely ruled out a return to the Yankees, even though they have signed Randy Winn to presumably take his place on the roster.” Ignoring the one-for-one replacement of Damon with Winn — and further ignoring the flawed idea of “replacing” production — this is an interesting statement. How could he not rule out a return to the Yankees when it seems everyone else has?
Last week, just after the Winn signing, SI’s Jon Heyman wrote a column about the situation between the Yankees and Damon, quoting both Brian Cashman and Damon at length. Both sides expressed the desire for a reunion, but both recognized the obstacles that stood, and continue to stand, in the way. Both also conceded that they could get back together at some point in the future. “You never know,” said Cashman. Not the most specific of endorsements, but like any good GM, he wouldn’t rule out the possibility if a favorable situation arose.
The scenario
The Yankees have three outfielders who have guaranteed 2010 contracts: Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, and Randy Winn. Beyond that they have Brett Gardner, who will make the league minimum and who has two options remaining, and Jamie Hoffmann, whom the Yankees must offer back to the Dodgers if he doesn’t make the team out of spring training. By all appearances, the Yankees will use Gardner and Winn in left, doling out their playing time as their performances warrant. Hoffmann, if he makes the roster, would serve as the fifth outfielder and late-inning defensive replacement — perhaps as a pinch runner with Gardner already in the game.
For now, we can discount Hoffmann. I doubt the Yankees will make roster moves to accommodate him. If he plays well enough to earn a spot, he’ll get it. If they have another player who can fill his role better, they’ll go with that player. That leaves four outfielders, which sounds about right. Winn and Swisher can play both corners, while Granderson and Gardner profile best in left or center. That seems to cover the outfield. So where in the world would Damon fit?
In any return scenario, Gardner would be the odd man out. He not only has an option or two remaining, but he has drawn interest from other teams this off-season, namely the Reds, Padres, White Sox, and Royals. Because any Damon contract would cover just one year, the Yankees wouldn’t necessarily have to trade Gardner to open a spot. They could simply start him in the minors and use him to fill in when needed. This makes the Yankees situation a bit more flexible.
The main obstacle in a Damon-Yankees reunion is the same as it ever was. Before acquiring Winn the Yankees had just $2 million left in their Opening Day payroll budget. All of that went to Winn, so unless Damon is willing to play for the league minimum the Yankees would have to free up some salary. Of their players currently under contract, only Chad Gaudin makes sense from a salary standpoint. He’ll make $2.95 million to start 2010.
In his column, Heyman notes that Cashman floated “a contract of $6 million with $3 million deferred at no interest.” The idea, apparently, is that while the entire $6 million would count against the official Opening Day payroll, Hal Steinbrenner might be open to a deal with deferred money. With around $3 million in savings from dealing Gaudin, presumably for a low-level or low-ceiling minor leaguer, the Yankees could put this offer back on the table. They could go even lower, too, because we haven’t seen much interest in Damon since the Winn signing.
Why it makes sense
If Damon hits as well as he did last season, he’ll be more valuable than Winn at the plate in 2010. If his defense, as Damon himself says, “was only the first two months, and it involved probably five plays,” then perhaps he can play a capable left field. We know that his bat plays well at the Stadium, and that he’s a good guy to have in the clubhouse. His speed, while not what it was when he first signed, is still an asset.
Why it doesn’t make sense
To list them:
- Trading away pitching depth to sign another outfielder doesn’t seem like a great idea.
- The Yankees seem to like Brett Gardner, probably enough to give him at least a half-season’s worth of at-bats in left field.
- The chances of Damon replicating his 2009 season remain low. He’ll be a useful offensive player, but it’s doubtful that he replicates a career year — one in which he slipped considerably toward the end.
- Stats and scouts agreed that Damon played poorly in left field last season, so his return to league average doesn’t appear likely.
Why it won’t happen
Judging from his track record, I don’t think Brian Cashman will alter his roster, trading away valuable pitching depth, just to accommodate Damon. They’re likely mindful that 2010 Damon isn’t 2009 Damon, and that the latter outperformed most reasonable expectations. True, for $6 million, with $3 million deferred, he wouldn’t have to replicate his production to justify the contract. But, again, the Yankees would have to make a further sacrifice in order to even think about bringing back Damon. I just don’t see them doing that.
Really, this is just a crazy thought based on Johnny not yet ruling out a return to New York. The door might remain unlocked, but it’s definitely shut. I doubt the Yankees would go through the trouble at this point. They should be too busy preparing for another championship season in 2010.
Photo credit: Eric Gay/AP
Report: Dodgers close to deal with Reed Johnson
Posted by: | CommentsVia MLBTR, the Dodgers are closing in on a deal with free agent outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson was considered a candidate for the Yanks’ left field job until they signed Randy Winn, and it’ll be interesting to see what his contract looks like. If you’re curious, Johnson has been worth 1.7 WAR over the last two seasons with the Cubs. Winn was worth that in his down 2009 season alone.
Olney & Cafardo on Damon
Posted by: | CommentsGood morning Fac… wait … wrong site. My bad.
Had enough of this Johnny Damon nonsense yet? Well, Buster Olney and Nick Cafardo give us some more insight into his demands and how negotiations with the Yanks went down (both links via MLBTR). Olney says that once the Curtis Granderson trade was completed, Scott Boras told the Yankees “If you’re going to offer a contract that represents a decrease in salary, don’t bother to make an offer,” and it wasn’t until the Nick Johnson news broke that Team Damon was willing to negotiate. As cliche as it sounds: you snooze, you lose.
Olney adds that the $6M offer the Yanks made last week “might be about the same or even better than what other teams offered.” Boras indicated that “We’ve heard some very creative proposals on Johnny,’’ which is good, because his market is as dry as the Sahara right now.
A real budget means Wang will move on
Posted by: | CommentsOver the past two days it has become abundantly clear that the Yankees do have a budget, and that they’ve basically reached the threshold. Since acquiring Javy Vazquez in December, Brian Cashman has told agents and reporters alike that the team had about $2 million to spend. When they signed Randy Winn for that amount and publicly declared Johnny Damon a former Yankee, they proved that the budget was no bluff. Recent reports indicate that the Yankees will focus on non-roster invites, with Marcus Thames, Rocco Baldelli, and Jonny Gomes specifically mentioned. The team’s lack of financial wiggle room also affects another oft-mentioned free agent.
Now that we’re done discussing Johnny Damon, many of us will turn to the most prolific former Yankee on the market, Chien-Ming Wang. Last time we checked, Wang’s agent, Alan Nero, sounded curiously optimistic about his client’s prospects. Shoulder surgery is no small deal, especially for a pitcher who relied on a power sinker that radar guns clocked at 95 mph. Yet Nero claims interest is strong in Wang, and that he expects “a major-league offer with a substantial guarantee and a substantial upside,” adding that he and his client would be comfortable waiting until May, Wang’s target return date, if necessary.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has the latest from Nero, who claims that a few teams are heavily in on Wang now, and could perhaps make an acceptable offer before spring training. Wang, according to Nero, is “two to four weeks behind” his normal winter schedule, though Stark notes that teams “sounded more skeptical about that prognosis.” Stark identifies the Mets, Dodgers, and Cardinals as the teams most connected to Wang.
The story hasn’t changed, really, since the last time we heard from Nero. Wang remains a considerable risk, and since he won’t return until early May at the earliest I can’t see any team offering him a deal, as Nero says, that they “can’t say no to.” What would that take, two, three million? Is there any team desperate enough for a pitcher that they’d pay two, three million for someone coming off shoulder surgery and who can’t pitch until May? Other than the Mets. Or maybe the Royals.
The Yankees appear not to have interest in retaining Wang at this point, at least on their terms. Maybe if they unloaded Gaudin’s salary they could fit Wang in the budget, but then why would you trade a healthy pitcher for one who had shoulder surgery six months ago? It’s sad to see him go, and I hope he makes a full recovery, but we’ve seen the last of Chien-Ming Wang in pinstripes.
Hindsight makes the Vazquez deal look better
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees made it clear when the off-season began that they planned to sign a starting pitcher. In 2009 they dealt with a constantly fluctuating fifth starter spot, plus Joba Chamberlain’s growing pains. The team understandably wanted to solidify that rotation rather than placing both Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the rotation, especially after the former pitched more innings than previously in his career, and the latter faces an innings limit in 2010. As we moved through the off-season’s beginning stages, most of us thought that the Yankees would sign Justin Duchscherer or Ben Sheets. Instead they traded for Javier Vazquez.
At the time I argued it was a good move. Vazquez has been a solid pitcher in most seasons of his career, mixing average seasons with excellent seasons. At worst he’s the best fourth starter in the league, and probably a mid-range third starter. At best he complements A.J. Burnett as a No. 2. That sounds like an acceptable range of outcomes. The price was right on Vazquez, too. In addition to his $12 million salary, the Yankees traded the exact type of player they should in this case. Melky Cabrera, while a solid contributor last season, has shown himself a league average player during his Yankees tenure. Arodys Vizcaino is a young prospect a few years away from the majors. Mike Dunn was a throw-in, offset in a way by Boone Logan.
In Vazquez, the Yankees not only received a potentially excellent starter, but also a durable one. Only once in the last decade did Javy miss the 200-inning mark, and even then he hit 198 innings. That, I think, represents a large part of the decision to trade for Vazquez rather than sign one of the free agent starters. Both Sheets and Duchscherer are coming off injuries which kept them out of action in 2009. Perhaps the year off rejuvenated them, but that’s still a hefty bet. Maybe Sheets pitches 170 innings in 2010. But is that a bet that, as a GM, you’d be willing to make?
Now we see where Sheets and Duchscherer have landed. Duchscherer signed a one-year, $2 million deal that can pay him up to $5.5 million with incentives. That seems like a steal, and perhaps the A’s did get a familiarity discount. The Yankees could have easily made that move, but Duch has never crossed the 150-inning mark in his life. The price might have been low, but the Yankees had no way of expecting the kind of production they wanted from a rotation signing. It was a nice thought — Duchscherer did, after all, dominate in his first full season as a starter, allowing under one walk plus hit per inning pitched. But with the history of low inning totals and a completely missed 2009 campaign, the Yankees wanted something of a better bet.
Sheets got $10 million plus incentives, not quite the $12 million he sought but closer than I thought he’d get. The Yankees reportedly like Sheets, but in this case I can see why they weren’t willing to wait him out. It was pretty clear at the winter meetings that Sheets wasn’t signing any time soon, and the Yankees wanted to get their situation in order. They couldn’t know what kind of contract Sheets would eventually command, but it figured to be substantial. The Yankees apparently deemed him not worth the wait. It wasn’t because of ability — at his best, Sheets is a better pitcher than Vazquez. Durability certainly played a role in the decision to trade for Vazquez rather than wait out Sheets.
I know a number of fans did not like the Vazquez trade, and I doubt anything will convince them that it was the right move. But upon seeing how the free agent pitching market played out, I have a hard time arguing against it. The Yankees traded the type of players they can afford to part ways with for a pitcher who fits their mold — durable, possibly dominant, whereas Sheets is dominant, possibly durable. When considering all other possible options and outcomes for that open rotation spot, the Yankees did well for themselves.
The sounds of Cashman calling Boras’s bluff
Posted by: | CommentsJudging by the way he’s spoken to the media this week, Brian Cashman is as sick of the Johnny Damon drama as the rest of us. I can understand, to an extent, the attention surrounding the situation. Damon is the best remaining free agent, and the Yankees have a perceived hole in left field. But they also claim to have a tight budget, making what appears to be a perfect marriage a bit dicier. And so, the more time Johnny spends on the free agent market, the more we hear about his prospects, both real and fabricated.
This week Cashman has seemed a bit irritated when a reporter raises the topic. Over the weekend, when Jon Heyman floated the story about the Yankees putting a weekend deadline on their offer to Damon, Cashman wasn’t too friendly when asked for a comment.
“Long long it’s taking certain people to wake up and smell the coffee, that’s what surprises me,” Cashman said. “Wake up and smell the coffee,” seems to be one of his favorite phrases. But who, in this instance, should roll themselves out of bed and take a whiff of the French roast? “When you get on the phone with agents, they tell you one thing, and certain agents can’t honestly believe what they’re trying to convey. Do they think I’m stupid?” Emphasis, of course, is mine.
I wasn’t with Cashman when he said this. I don’t know what tone he took, though having heard him speak before I can venture a pretty good guess. But even absent that information, it sounds like he’s referring to Scott Boras. If Bill Madden is right about Boras continuing to float mystery teams instead of talking numbers, I’d say it’s almost certain that the above quote could read, “…Scott Boras can’t honestly believe what he’s trying to convey.”
Yesterday Bryan Hoch asked Cashman about Johnny Damon, and he started off frankly. “I’m not having any discussions with him,” Cashman said. Fair enough. Straight forward, answering the question — things you expect. But then he added a bit of a zinger, again presumably targeted at Boras.
“His abilities exceed the money that I have.”
I definitely chuckled at this a bit. Boras has gone on and on about Johnny’s invincibility this winter, and now that his other major clients have homes he has probably ramped up that effort over the past week or so. I can only imagine Cashman’s annoyance at constantly hearing it from Boras. His quote is also, I think, a hint at the dissonance between Boras’s demands and the current market. Yes, Johnny is a valuable player, and in a different year he’d probably have received a multiyear offer. This year that will not happen. But Boras continues to bang the drum.
All parties seem to think the Yankees are moving on. That’s just public discourse, however. Until Johnny signs elsewhere, the possibility remains that he’ll again don pinstripes in 2010. But, in case he does sign in Oakland or Cleveland or some other team, the Yankees do have options. As Joel Sherman tweets, the Yankees are still considering their options, including Reed Johnson. Also, if Rocco Baldelli comes to Spring Training, it will be as a non-roster invite. That makes plenty of sense, considering Baldelli’s injury history and performance last season.
Over the weekend, Damon said he’d have a team by the end of this week. Please, oh please let that be true. I don’t think I have the stomach for much more of this.
Yanks trade Mitch Hilligoss for Greg Golson
Posted by: | CommentsBack in the day, a move like this would have flown under the radar. But now we have schmucks, like the guy covering MLBTR today, digging up little tidbits to satiate our transactional thirst. As MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports, the Yankees have sent Mitch Hilligoss to the Rangers for outfielder Greg Golson. It’s a small-time move, for sure — the Rangers DFA’d Golson last week to make room for Khalil Greene. The Yanks are the beneficiaries, trading a guy with no future on the team for a possible outfield option.
The 21st overall pick in the 2004 draft, Golson spent most of his professional career in the Phillies system. Known primarily for his speed, Golson didn’t flash much of anything else during his journey from A ball to AA. His OBP never hit even .330 until his age-22 season, in AA, and even then it sat at .333. His contact and power numbers were decent for a speedster, however, as he racked up 120 hits, 35 of which went for extra bases, over 426 at-bats in 2008. The Phillies then traded him to Texas for John Mayberry.
Golson slipped in 2009, his batting average dropping to .258, his OBP to .299, and his SLG to .334, all while in the hitter-friendly PCL. But even before then he lost the prospect luster. John Sickels extended his top 20 Rangers prospects to 24, and still Golson fell into the “others” list. Baseball America clearly left him out of their top 10, though Golson did rank as the best athlete, fastest baserunner, and best outfield arm in the organization.
For the Yanks, this represents just another low-risk move. Hilligoss, most remembered for his 38-game hitting streak in the Sally League three years ago, probably won’t amount to much, especially in the Yankees’s system. All Golson costs is one of the free 40-man roster spots, and even then it doesn’t seem like they’ll hesitate to cut him if the need arises. For now he’ll compete for a spot on the team in Spring Training, though chances are the Yankees will just stash him in AAA. It appears he was added to the 40-man roster after the 2008 season, so he’ll have options.
Credit: AP Photo/Tom Mihalek
