Archive for Hot Stove League
Rosenthal: Yankees not in the mix for Oswalt
Posted by: | CommentsVia Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees are not among the teams currently in the mix for free agent right-hander Roy Oswalt. The 34-year-old threw for the Red Sox and Phillies recently and plans to throw for two other clubs in the near future. Oswalt intends to sign soon, possibly within a week, and return to the mound in mid-to-late-June.
The Yankees were connected to Oswalt to varying degrees this offseason, but like everyone else they decided to pass due in part to concerns about the degenerative discs in his back. The rotation hasn’t been great in the early going but I don’t think the Yankees will see Oswalt, who for all intents and purposes is another Andy Pettitte situation, as much of a solution. A trade for an active pitcher seems more likely and frankly smarter than another old guy flier.
Yanks have no plans to restart extension talks with Martin
Posted by: | CommentsVia Jon Heyman, the Yankees have no plans to restart contract extension talks with Russell Martin during the season. The 29-year-old backstop has a very OBP-heavy .310 wOBA in the early going and will become a free agent nest winter. The two sides discussed a multi-year contract before agreeing to put talks on hold before the season. The Yankees really like Martin for his glovework behind the plate and his clubhouse skills, but the Yadier Molina contract really upped the price of catching. Austin Romine‘s persistent back problems make the club’s catching future pretty murky, so this will definitely be a situation to monitor.
Scouting The Waiver Market: Rich Thompson
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees aren’t exactly hurting for bullpen help at the moment, but they’re always looking to add depth to the organization. The Angels, despite their early-season bullpen concerns, cut loose a nice young arm before yesterday’s game by designating Rich Thompson for assignment. The 27-year-old Australian-born right-hander pitched to a 3.00 ERA (3.27 FIP) in 54 IP for the Halos just last season, but they’d apparently seen enough after he allowed four runs in 2.1 IP this year.
Now that Thompson will hit the waiver wire, let’s take a look to see if he’s someone the Yankees should have interest in acquiring…
The Good
- Thompson owns a legitimate put-away pitch in his big breaking, mid-70s curveball. The pitch has allowed him to post a 9.09 K/9 and a 23.2 K% in 104 big league innings. Thompson also throws a low-90s fastball and a mid-80s cutter, typical reliever stuff. His walk rates are solid but unspectacular: 3.20 BB/9 and 8.2 BB%.
- It’s only 207 batters faced, but Thompson has held big league lefties to a measly .243/.312/.378 batting line with a 22.7 K%. He’s shown a similar split throughout his Triple-A career as well.
- Thompson’s medical history is relatively clean. He missed three weeks with shoulder inflammation and two weeks with a strained pectoral, both back in 2010. He’s been healthy throughout his career otherwise.
The Bad
- Thompson’s fastball velocity is trending downwards, averaging just 88.9 mph in the early going this year. His effectiveness against lefties is negated by his struggles against right-handed batters, who’ve tagged him for a .265/.320/.502 batting line with a 23.7 K% in the bigs.
- As you might expect with a slugging percentage that high, Thompson can be prone to the long ball. His career ground ball rate and homer rates are 38.2% and 1.56 HR/9, respectively. Last year, his only full year in the show, it was a more manageable 40.9% and 0.83 HR/9.
- Thompson is out of options, so he can’t be sent to the minors without first being passed through waivers. That’s why the Angels had to cut him in the first place.
I’ve always liked Thompson and I think he’s a poor man’s version of David Robertson. They’re both relatively undersized fastball/cutter/curveball right-handers with big strikeout rates and less than desirable walk rates. Robertson is obviously much more successful, particularly when it comes to keeping the ball in the park, but Thompson is cut from a similar cloth. Guys that can miss bats out of the bullpen are right up the Yankees’ alley.
The out of options thing is a problem because there’s no room for Thompson in the bullpen at the moment. Ideally the Yankees would claim him off waivers then stash him in Triple-A, but it’s not that simple. Their best bet would be to claim him and then immediately remove him from the 40-man roster, hoping he gets through the rest of the league unclaimed. It’s the same thing they did with Craig Tatum; get him in the organization but off the 40-man and in the minors. If the Yankees can pull that off and add Thompson to the depth chart, great. If not, well no big deal. He’s better than your typical waiver wire fodder, however.
Robinson Cano and the Ian Kinsler contract
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(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Robinson Cano‘s contract has been a bit of a hot topic around these parts over the last six months or so, though it would be more accurate to say his next contract has been the hot topic. The Yankees will undoubtedly exercise their 2013 option and keep Cano around next season, but he’ll become a free agent after that. Given his production and his popularity, it’s easy to see how Robbie’s next deal could become quite unwieldy, especially with all this talk about the 2014 budget.
Last summer I spit-balled the idea of a six-year contract worth $120M, covering the 2012 through 2017 seasons. The Joey Votto contract appeared to change the landscape, at least in terms of non-free agent players getting paid like free agents. The Rangers did us and the Yankees a solid yesterday, agreeing an extension with Ian Kinsler that finally gives us a reasonable guideline for Cano’s next deal. The terms: five guaranteed years and $70M with a sixth-year club option ($5M buyout). That’s more than the Braves gave Dan Uggla (five years and $62M) at a similar point of his career and deservedly so.
It might not appear to be the case at first glance, but Cano and Kinsler are very similar players. Rather, they provide similar value while going about it in very different ways…
Source: FanGraphs — Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler
Cano is the high batting average guy who hits for good power and plays solid defense (depending on your choice of metrics). Kinsler hits for a lower average while hitting for more power, stealing more bases, and playing a similar level of defense. His massive home/road split and lengthy injury history — at least one DL trip in each of his first five seasons — are legitimate concerns Cano doesn’t share. Robbie’s actually hit better away from Yankee Stadium in his career and has played at least 159 games in each of the last five years. They were born five months apart, so age is a non-issue.
This isn’t about Cano vs. Kinsler, it’s about the market for elite second basemen. Kinsler’s deal is the largest ever for a player at the position in terms of average annual value at $14M per year, but that will change when the Yankees exercise Cano’s $15M option for next season. Therein lies the problem; Kinsler’s new contract represents a pay cut for Cano. With Scott Boras now calling the shots and the Dodgers’ new ownership group looming, you can be sure Robbie isn’t taking a pay cut barring something completely unforeseen.
If nothing else, this new contract between Kinsler and the Rangers brings us back to reality a bit. Cano’s next contract might be closer to $17-18M per year rather than $20-22M based on similar players, but all bets are off if Boras manages to take Robbie out onto the open market as a free agent after next season. I know the Yankees have their policy of not negotiating new contracts until the current one expires, but they already broke that policy once for Cano and they would be very wise to do it again if they have serious interest in retaining him long-term. For all we know, they might not. Letting Robinson walk after 2013 isn’t the craziest thing in the world.
Report: Astros, Orioles have interest in Maxwell
Posted by: | CommentsVia George King, both the Astros and Orioles have interest in Justin Maxwell. They have yet to call Brian Cashman about the right-handed hitting outfielder, however. Maxwell is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers, so the Yankees will have to decide what to do with him relatively soon. With Curtis Granderson (elbow) and Nick Swisher (knee) banged up, I’m sure they’re going to hold onto him for just a little bit longer.
Report: Phillies have interest in Ramiro Pena
Posted by: | CommentsVia George King, the Phillies have some interest in infielder Ramiro Pena. Chase Utley (knee) and Michael Martinez (foot) are going to start the season on the DL, and Ryan Howard’s injury means Ty Wigginton will have to spend most of his time at first. Long story short, the Phillies need infielders. Pena doesn’t have a ton of value so it’s unlikely the Yankees would get anything noteworthy should they make a deal. Maybe cash or a Grade-D prospect.
Report: Yankees offered Freddy Garcia to Marlins
Posted by: | CommentsVia Danny Knobler, the Yankees offered Freddy Garcia to the Marlins in a trade, but they weren’t interested. Garcia and Ozzie Guillen are close thanks to their time in Chicago together. Freddy has already indicated a willingness to pitch out of the bullpen, but apparently the team isn’t fond of the idea.
It’s easy to see that Garcia is the odd man out of the rotation at the moment, and he only figures to get pushed further down the depth chart once Andy Pettitte is ready to go. That’s assuming everyone stays healthy and effective, which is never the case. I’d rather not see the Yankees count their chickens before they hatch and trade Freddy before the season even starts; he could end up being pretty important within a few weeks. Enjoy the depth, it’s not a problem in March.
Patience & Roster Margins
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(REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
The Yankees have a top-heavy roster in terms of payroll, but no longer in terms of talent. A few years ago the club was loaded with high-priced superstars that carried the majority of load with little depth, forcing the team to scratch and claw for bench help, bullpen fodder, and depth pieces. The Yankees still rely on those high-priced superstars to lead the way, but now they have depth in all forms — quality veterans and kids in Triple-A. The payroll hasn’t changed all that much in recent years, but the roster construction certainly has.
All those high-priced stars typically make it difficult for the Yankees to add reserve players via free agency because no one wants to sit on the bench or rot in the bullpen while the big money guys play as much as possible. That’s why they’ve had to swing trades for Wilson Betemit and Enrique Wilson types in the past. That has changed a bit in the last year or two, and we’ve actually seen some quality veteran players take less money and smaller roles to come to New York, perhaps in an effort to win a ring. As a result, the Yankees can now afford to be patient during the offseason and add players on favorable terms.
“We were able to take advantage of the month of January in terms of value in the back end of the free agent market,” said Brian Cashman recently. “Plus, the wishes of certain people to come to camp with the Yankees was a factor. I always remember a ways back when that wasn’t the case — when it was hard to get players to come here — so we can now be patient with the free agent market.”
The Yankees brought in a number of players on below-market contracts this offseason, getting serious value on the margins of the roster. Freddy Garcia returned for one year and $4M, a bargain compared to similar free agent hurlers like Bruce Chen (2/10), Aaron Harang (2/12), Tsuyoshi Wada (2/8.15), and Chris Capuano (2/10). Andruw Jones came back for just $2M while Juan Rivera and Ryan Ludwick got $4.5M and $2.5M, respectively. Bill Hall, Dewayne Wise, and Clay Rapada took minor league pacts from the Yankees even though they probably could have gotten more of an opportunity elsewhere. Andy Pettitte‘s deal could be the bargain signing of the offseason.
Patience is no fun for us fans, especially since we’re so used to loud offseasons and constant rumors. It’s easy to misconstrue patience for cheapness and negligence, but every April there’s a championship-caliber club on the field. There will still be aggressive pursuits of big-name free agents in the future, but the Yankees have put themselves in a position to let second and third tier free agents come to them to fill miscellaneous roster holes later in the offseason. It’s easier said than done of course, especially since those types of free agents tend to be more volatile than the established everyday guys.
“I know it looks good now,” cautioned Cashman, “but I’ve come to learn that whatever makes sense over the winter doesn’t necessarily transfer itself into the regular season.”
Yankees unlikely to look at Dontrelle Willis
Posted by: | CommentsThe Phillies released Dontrelle Willis yesterday after bringing him in as a lefty specialist candidate during the offseason. Joel Sherman says the Yankees did offer the D-Train a minor league contract earlier this winter, but he understandably took the big league contract from Philadelphia. He adds that the Yanks might take another look at Willis, but it’s iffy at best. Buster Olney says they could have signed Mike Gonzalez two weeks ago, but didn’t because of the budget.
Willis, still only 30, hasn’t been an effective big leaguer since 2006 with the Marlins. Following a bout with anxiety disorder late in 2009, he’s held left-handed hitters to .178/.245/.248 batting line with 50 strikeouts (35.0%) and ten walks (7.0%) in 143 plate appearances. Those are some pretty strong numbers despite the obvious sample size concerns. Clay Rapada seems to be separating himself from the rest of the second lefty pack (Cesar Cabral and Mike O’Connor), and while I’m not a big Willis fan, there’s no harm in a minor league contract.
Damon: It wasn’t about the money, but Yanks said no anyway
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yanks’ off-season unfolded and their DH platoon needs came into view, Johnny Damon‘s name surfaced amongst the Yankee rumors. Damon, a free agent whose numbers likely suffered in the Trop last year, is shy of 3000 hits and still unemployed. I wasn’t too keen on his return to the Bronx and made a rather flimsy case for him. By the time I warmed to the thought of a Damon reunion, the Yanks had locked up Raul Ibañez.
On Tuesday, Damon, still unemployed and hoping for any job offer, took to the airwaves. On SiriusXM, he spoke with Casey Stern and Jim Bowden, and of course, the conversation came around to the Yanks. What happened with the Bombers, Stern asked.
“The only conversation was me reaching out to them because obviously at this point in my career, I would like to have some say on who I can and can’t play for it,” Damon said. “I just wanted to make sure Cashman knew it wasn’t about the money. Pay me whatever, and I’ll try to help you win a championship.”
According to Damon, Cashman basically said thanks, but no thanks. The Yanks’ GM told the free agent that he and his scouts believed Ibañez would be a better option in the outfield because Raul had the chance to play the field for a few years. Damon defended his defense, saying he didn’t have a spot patrolling the Tampa Bay turf because the rest of the Rays’ outfielders were among the best in the league. “I like to think that my legs are a bit fresher,” he said. His arm, of course, is another matter.
Furthermore, Damon claimed that since he hits left-handed pitching so well and the Yanks already have Andruw Jones, he wasn’t a great fit. Cashman, he says, didn’t want to take at-bats away from Jones. “They brought in Andruw Jones to hit left-handed pitching and I actually do that more than right-handed pitching,” he said. Last year, Damon hit southpaws better than he did righties, but historically, he has been a better offensive threat against right-handers.
I’m not sure if we should make much of this at all. It sounds to me as though the Yanks’ reasons for pursuing Ibañez over Damon were a bit flimsy. The club isn’t really expecting Ibañez to be more than fifth outfielder on the depth charts. Maybe he’ll hit; maybe, playing his age 40 season, he won’t. He’s 2 for 21 during Spring Training, but no one on the Yanks is doing much hitting so far.
In an ideal world, perhaps the Yanks would have Ibañez and Damon in camp together competing for one job. If Damon’s words are true, he may have been willing to do that. For now, though, that ship has sailed. Damon appears to be lobbying Detroit for a job, and the Yanks will cobble together a few hundred left-handed plate appearances from Ibañez and others. Damon’s was the reunion never meant to be.
