Archive for Hot Stove League

The Yankees don’t have many immediate roster decisions to make as they head into the off-season. They have just one team option to consider, Sergio Mitre’s for $1.25 million, and they will likely exercise it. Only a few players are arbitration eligible, and of them most are either easy or painless calls. The case of Chien-Ming Wang, though, is a tough one. After surgery in July to repair a shoulder capsule, Wang could start the 2010 season in July, if he starts it at all. Will the Yankees tender him a contract under those circumstances?

The Yankees will have more information at hand after Monday, when Wang visits Dr. James Andrews to check up on his right shoulder. If everything looks fine, Wang could be throwing minor league games by April or May. What I wonder is whether that timeframe is worth a potential $5.5, $6 million gamble. That’s what the Yankees would be doing by offering him arbitration. The alternative is to not tender him a contract, meaning he’d be a free agent. There are no guarantees then.

I’ve heard some people say that the Yankees have mistreated Chien-Ming, but I don’t really see it. Maybe it’s because the observation is from afar, but it seems like they did the reasonable thing. Wang had an injury history, missing all of 2001 and part of 2005 with shoulder issues. Instead of signing him to a long-term deal, they went year to year. Unfortunately for Wang, that decision worked out for the Yankees. Now they get to make a decision on how he fits into their future.

There’s no downplaying Wang’s contributions to the Yankees from 2005 through the start of 2008. He stood out during the years when the team’s pitching was thin. It would be rough to see him go, especially because we know what he can contribute. In an off-season that many think will be light for the Yankees, the decision on Wang could stand out.

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Yesterday afternoon, word got out that Bobby Abreu had agreed to a contract extension with the Angels, signing on for two more years in Anaheim. After having to wait until damn near Spring Training to find a job last year, Abreu jumped all over the $19M the Halos offered him. The deal even includes a vesting option for 2012 worth $9M, when Abreu will be 38. I mentioned this yesterday, but in two years I’m sure we’ll be hearing about ways the Angels can prevent that option from vesting.

Anyway, the entire reason I brought this up is because it indirectly affects the Yankees. Now we have a blueprint for what a new contract for Johnny Damon might look like, something we didn’t have before. The similarities between the two players are obvious: both will be 36 on Opening Day 2010 yet have proven to be extremely durable, both are former All Stars with a strong pedigree within the game, and both are defensively challenged corner outfielders. Their offensive styles are different – Abreu is more of an on-base guy with gap power, Damon offers more over-the-fence power – but in the end they’re both ~.850 OPS and ~2.8 WAR players.

Bobby’s deal will pay him $9M annually, which is about as good of a deal as he could have expected. Despite all the talk about how he “transformed the Angels lineup,” Abreu simply was not going to pull in eight figures annually on the free agent market, and the same holds true for Johnny. It’s almost inconceivable that the Yankees would offer Damon arbitration even though he qualifies as a Type-A free agent, because the risk of him accepting a getting a raise over his current $13M salary is just too great, even if it’s just one year.

It’s no secret that the New Yankee Stadium somewhat helped resurrect Damon’s career in 2009. He set a new career high with a .207 IsoP, tied his career high with 24 homers, and posted the second best slugging percentage (.489) of his career. On the road he was Jorge Cantu (.284-.349-.446), but at home he was Jason Bay (.279-.382-.533). All that makes him more valuable to the Yankees than anyone else.

Timing certainly plays a huge part of it. A few weeks ago, the thought of even re-signing Damon seemed like madness because he was slumping so badly. Now, after some late inning World Series heroics, we wonder how the team could survive without him. But two guaranteed years? I can’t see how you can lock yourself into that kind of commitment. One year plus an option? Absolutely. But you’re asking for trouble, and reducing your flexibility for next year, by bringing him back for two.

As for the money, obviously $9M a year is nothing for the Yankees. It’s overpaying, but not by an absurd amount. If you could talk him down to $7M with some incentives, you’d obviously prefer that. The bottom line is that it would behoove the Yankees not to lock themselves a commitment with Damon as long as the Angels did with Abreu. Just don’t underestimate the power of Scott Boras.

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We’ve just finished two days without Yankee baseball and we still have two to go. Once the playoffs started, I hoped we’d be busy enough to avoid the hot stove talk. Alas, I underestimated the Yankees awesomeness. Their sweep gives us a big break in the action, and inevitably we’ll stray into non-playoff topics. I promise, this is crazy enough that it might not even qualify as a hot stove post.

The biggest issue the Yankees face this season is of their outfield. Nick Swisher will be back in right field, but beyond that everything is up in the air. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner are still under team control, but they’re an average tandem. That’s not the worst thing in the world, but it could be a problem because of the imminent left field vacancy.

Johnny Damon is a free agent at the end of the season, and despite numerous reports of his desire to return, it’s no guarantee. He’ll be 36 last season and his defense has declined markedly. I’m guessing that the Yankees would sign him if the price were right, but if it’s not they’ll probably let him walk, leaving a left field vacancy. That will connect the team with Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but there’s another possible solution.

This guy on MLBTR linked to a Mets.com mailbag regarding the Mets’ off-season. One of the letters mentioned trading Carlos Beltran. See? I told you it was crazy enough to not even qualify as a hot stove post. But that won’t stop me from elaborating a bit.

Beltran would replace Damon in every way. He could replace him in left field and at the two spot in the batting order. Beltran is a better hitter than Damon, getting on base at around the same clip but hitting for more power. He also plays better defense. Both hit for a good average, and both are excellent base stealers. In almost every way, Beltran would be a great addition for the Yankees.

The problem is that the Mets won’t give him away. If they can’t get something they can use to rebuild their team, they’ll just keep him. The Yankees are one of the few teams that can eat Beltran’s $37 million salary between 2010 and 2011, but I’m not sure the Yankees and the Mets match up well for a trade.

Then there’s the issue of the Yankees’ opportunity to sign Beltran after the 2004 season. The team had already signed Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, and had traded for Randy Johnson, when Scott Boras laid it out for the Yankees: $100 million over six years. Had they signed him then, he’d have just one year and somewhere between $16 and $18 million remaining on his deal. It would hurt to trade for him under the terms the Mets negotiated.

If Carlos Beltran were a free agent, the Yankees might consider signing him. He’ll be 33 in the 2010 season and is coming off a pretty serious knee injury, so there are risks — risks that make trading for him a likely nonstarter. More than anything, it makes me wonder what the Yanks would be like if they had kept Vazquez and signed Beltran that winter. I think the team might be a little bit stronger.

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Oct
10

Could Matsui stay in New York?

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (43)

But with the Mets? Some guy with the same name as me at MLBTR passed along this report from Newsday, where David Lennon speculates that Yanks’ DH Hideki Matsui could wind up in Flushing with the Amazin’s next year. Allow me to quote:

With Hideki Matsui telling friends he’d like to remain in New York above all else, as well as return to leftfield, it would be logical for the free agent to appear on the Mets’ radar this offseason.

In fact, Matsui is so eager to play the field again after a full year as the Yankees’ designated hitter that he’s also told people he would consider trying first base – a position he hasn’t played since high school.

[snip]

One baseball official suggested that the limited duty for Matsui this season will work to his advantage in allowing him to return to the outfield. With less wear and tear at DH, it was a chance for Matsui to recharge, and another four months off during the offseason obviously will be a big help, too.

The Mets obviously need all the help they can get, but can Matsui hold up all year while playing in the field? In leftfield, I’m not so sure it could be done. Godzilla needed to have his knees drained a few times this year after doing nothing more than running hard around the bases. Maybe he could pull it off at first, but he’ll almost assuredly be a negative-UZR player there, likely Giambi-esque.

Of course, Matsui’s amazing production this year (.274-.367-.506 with 28 jacks) is going to make it real hard for the Yankees to let him walk away. Granting, he’s not worth his $13M salary, so it’s unlikely the team will offer his salary arbitration after the season, even though he projects to be a Type-A free agent. FanGraphs valued his 2009 production at $11M, though I would be shocked if he pulls down eight-figures next year. What do you guys think, does one year at $8M seem reasonable for Matsui’s services next year?

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In a few weeks, current Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay will hit free agency for the first time in his career. With 36 home runs and 117 RBI, Bay is putting together some lofty stats at an opportune time, but still, his season comes equipped with numerous warning signs. Although the Yanks have been one of many teams mentioned as interested, they should become involved with Bay only to drive up the price for the Red Sox.

Through the middle of 2008, Bay excelled in relative obscurity. A darling for fantasy team owners, he was a stand-out player on years’ worth of terrible Pirates teams. He left Pittsburgh with a .281/.375/.515 line in six seasons and 131 home runs to complement the 131 OPS+. Bay arrived in Boston as a key piece in the three-way trade that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles and clearly had some big shoes to fill.

While not nearly as good as Manny — who is? — Bay has found success in Boston. Through 198 games, he has a 132 OPS+ and has hit 45 home runs. His triple slash line this season— .275/.382/.537 — is impressive, and more than a few teams will come a-knockin’ when he hits free agency this winter.

Earlier this week, MLB Trade Rumors summarized the state of the Bay sweepstakes. Alex Speier in Boston believes that the bidding could reach $14-$15 million for Bay and that the left fielder will receive at least four years. Speier feels that Boston return is a “legitimate possibility” but notes that at least seven teams — including the Yankees — could have the interest and money to sign Bay.

To which I say, “Pass.” Right now, Jason Bay is a productive middle-of-the-order hitter, but warning signs abound. The most obvious problem is his age. He is 31, and his free agent contract will cover his decline years. With that in mind, we turn to his defense. Right now, it is atrocious. He hasn’t had a positive UZR since 2006, and even in Fenway’s limited left field, he’s putting up a -12.3 mark this year. While he may be worth 34.3 offensive runs above average, he is 12.3 defensive runs below average. That number will just get worse as he gets older.

Also of concern are his strike outs. He has a career-high 159 strike outs in 60 fewer plate appearances than when he sruck out 156 times in 2006. As he ages, his bat speed will slow, and that total should continue to climb.

Now, don’t get me wrong; Jason Bay is a very good hitter. His power bat would profile nicely for Yankee Stadium. Considering, however, the costs, years, his age and defense, I can’t see the Yanks expressing much legitimate interest. If the Yanks can force Boston to overpay for Bay without landing Bay themselves, well, that is a decent off-season plan.

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Sep
28

Link Dump: Aroldis Chapman Edition

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (86)

Cuban southpaw Aroldis Chapman is primed to be a hot topic this winter, and just like with every other big name free agent, the Yankees figure to be interested in his services. Let’s round up the latest news surrounding the 21-yr old…

  • Major League Baseball officially declared Chapman a free agent over the weekend, so he could technically sign with any team today, if he wanted.
  • Back in July when he originally defected, I asked Keith Law what he thought about him during one of his ESPN chats. Here’s what he said: “I talked to a longtime scout – I mean, been at this 40 years – in the spring who said he was the best young LHP he’d ever seen. On good days he’ll touch 100 with a slider in the upper 80s, but he hasn’t been that guy every time out – I talked to another scout who saw him last year, I believe in Beijing, who had him topping out around 90 – and there are all kinds of rumors as to why. The upside probably puts him into $40-50 million territory, if not more …”
  • Here’s the PitchFX data for Chapman’s start against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic. As you can see, he topped out at 100.2 mph, but it looks like he tired because his velo dropped after 40 pitches or so. That’s not a really big concern, no one’s in tip-top shape in March.
  • Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus used some historical data translate Chapman’s stats in Cuba to the low levels of the minors here, and while the 9.3 K/9 is pretty, the 2.5 HR/9 and 7.4 BB/9 are awful. However, four of his closest statistical comps (Brian Fuentes, Mike Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink, and Oliver Perez) have gone on to have varying degrees of big league success.
  • Chapman would probably rank as one of the top 25 prospects in the game according to Baseball America’s Jim Callis, although he wouldn’t supplant Jesus Montero as the Yanks’ top farmhand. No one tops the Jesus.
  • And last, but certainly not least, here’s a clip of the kid in action.
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Sep
25

Pondering Brandon Webb

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (43)

While Yankee fans do not often find themselves much concerned with the affairs of the Arizona Diamondbacks, this off-season may see a prized D-back pitcher hit free agency. Brandon Webb is Arizona’s equivalent to Chien-Ming Wang. A sinkerball specialist, who, by the way, like Wang, Webb has missed nearly all of 2009 with shoulder problems. His contract features an $8.5 million team option that may push Webb into a shallow free agent pitching pool.

Over the last week, news from the desert has focused around this bonus. The Arizona Front Office wants to restructure the option to be incentive-based. After all, there is no guarantee that Webb will rebound after throwing just four innings at the Major League level this year (and all on Opening Day). But Webb will have none of it. He says he’ll be healthy for 2010 and is more than willing to test the free agent waters.

Earlier today, Chris at iYankees pointed the way to a rumor linking Webb with the Yanks, among other teams. In a video post, Buster Olney reports that the Yankees could offer Webb a one-year deal come this off-season. The usual suspects — Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, and White Sox — also figure to keep an eye on Webb. That ought to keep Webb’s value up.

Olney’s report is contingent upon the D-backs’ desire to save $6.5 million. If they don’t pick up Webb’s option, the buy-out is $2 million, and sources in Arizona anticipate Webb returning next year. It is, however, nice to dream.

For his career, Brandon Webb has an ERA+ of 142 and a K/9 IP of 7.3. Before coming down with a shoulder injury this year, he had never missed a start. He throws a heavy and hard sinker similar to Wang’s, but unlike the Yanks’ injured pitcher, Webb has better command of his secondary pitches. He uses those pitches to get the strike outs that Wang doesn’t.

Heading into next year, the Yankees will have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett atop their rotation. Joba Chamberlain, despite the posturing, will be there, and Andy Pettitte will probably return. The last spot then will go to some mix of Phil Hughes, Al Aceves, Ian Kennedy or Chien-Ming Wang. If Webb is a free agent, adding him to the mix would give the Yanks some stellar depth. As fun as it is to ponder, I wouldn’t count on it though.

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The Yankees are off today and are traveling out to the west coast for the third time this year, so we’ve got some time to kill. While we wait patiently for tomorrow’s game, let’s take a look at Jon Heyman’s latest column, in which he guesses how much money various free agents will get this winter. Here’s what’s up with the Yanks’ impending free agents:

17. Johnny Damon, Yankees outfielder. Big year. But “better in Yankee Stadium,” the GM said.
Agent: $18 million, 2 years.
GM: Whatever the Yankees want to pay.
Me: $16 million, 2 years.

Did you know Damon’s hitting .154-.267-.154 since Sept. 3rd? Yikes. Anyway, I can’t see Damon getting two guaranteed years, at least not from the Yankees. Given his age, lack of defense, and considerable home-road splits, there will probably be a limited market for his services. My guess is one year, $5M with incentives and an option for 2011.

19. Andy Pettitte, Yankees starter. He says he’s undecided about a return. But everyone thinks he’s going back to the Yankees.
Agent: $10 million, 1 year.
GM: $11-12 million, 1 year.
Me: $12 million, 1 year.

Common sense says it’s Yankees or retirement. Pettitte’s base salary was $5.5M this year, but he’s already earned close to $3.5M in incentives with $2.5M or so not far off. Assuming the shoulder fatigue is nothing major, Pettitte should get more guaranteed money next year. I’m thinking one year, $9M with more incentives.

20. Hideki Matsui, Yankees DH. Big field of DHs may hurt him. Could replace Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle, the GM predicted.
Agent: $20 million, 2 years.
GM: $5-6 million, 1 year.
Me: $8 million, 1 year.

Matsui is a tough one. Everyone loves him, but designated hitters aren’t exactly in high demand. The anonymous GM Heyman quotes managed to make the Seattle-Japanese connection, but I think the M’s would turn to Russ Branyan to be their DH before dropping semi-big bucks on a free agent. I’m thinking one year, $5M tops, whether he stays in NY or goes elsewhere.

What do you guys think?

* * *

Here’s your open thread for the evening. The Mets are in the Atlanta playing out the rest of their schedule, while the Angels will wuss out against the Red Sox again, this time on MLB Network. Me? I’m finally going to tear in NHL 10. Talk about whatever you want, just be cool.

Update: For those who don’t check his blog (which is what, two of you?), Pete Abraham is headed up the East Coast to work for the Boston Globe. Make sure to go congratulate him.

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In a couple of hours, the Red Sox and Yankees will again square off in Fenway Park. While the Yanks are 0-6 against Boston this season, the two teams are tied for first atop the AL East, and the pennant race promises to be a good one this summer.

Despite the Red Sox’s on-field triumphs over the Yanks this season, New York walked away from the off-season the big winner when they seemingly stole Mark Teixeira out from under Boston’s Christmas tree. Six months later, Teixeira is one of the main reasons why the Yanks are fighting for first place. He’s hitting .284/.391/.615 with 18 HR and 51 RBI. “We definitely wouldn’t be where we are right now without him,” Johnny Damon said to The Times’ Jack Curry today.

In a good “What If?” piece, Curry explores what Teixeira means to the Yanks and would could have been had the Red Sox signed their top target. He writes:

The Red Sox positioned their off-season around signing Teixeira, a player who would have fit snugly into their desire for shrewd, patient hitters who play stellar defense. If the Red Sox were assigned the task of building the perfect player, they would have constructed someone who hit, fielded, walked and talked like Teixeira.

The Red Sox were the favorites to sign Teixeira, but they bolted from a meeting with him and Scott Boras, his agent, in December because Boras said their offer was not competitive enough. Johnny Damon of the Yankees never spoke to Teixeira during the negotiations because he assumed it “was a done deal” with Boston. But it was not. The Red Sox soon learned Boras was not bluffing.

Eleven days after the aborted meeting, the Yankees, who had focused on signing pitchers C. C. Sabathia and A. J. Burnett, swooped in and signed Teixeira to an eight-year, $180 million deal. The Red Sox lost a superb first baseman over a gap of about $10 million. Even worse, they lost him to the hated Yankees.

A-Rod, in talking to Curry summed it up. “Wow is as much as I can say,” the Yanks’ third baseman said. “I was thinking about that this week. He’s a switch-hitter, he’s young and he’s got world-class makeup. You can write a whole chapter on the difference.”

While neither Red Sox GM Theo Epstein nor Boston owner John Henry would comment for the story, the AL East would look a lot different had the Red Sox landed their prey. It’s a good thing for us they did not.

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Once the Yankees finish off their series with the Texas Rangers, the season will be one third over. The freak-outs by many in the Yankees fanbase might make it seem like the season is further along, but there’s still plenty, plenty of baseball left. Players will get hot, players will get cold, and managers will be second-guessed to death for the next four months — five if they’re lucky. With so much baseball to be played, it’s difficult to get a grasp of where a team will be in a few months. However, what we can do is evaluate where the team is, identify its shortcomings, and how the team can shore up those weaknesses.

In other words, welcome to trading season.

Over the next two months, we’ll be inundated with trade rumors, some frivolous, some provocative. Most will never happen, but that doesn’t mean the rumors aren’t entertaining. It’s always interesting to see what the people most familiar with a team’s needs (outside the actual front office) think it can do to put itself ahead of the pack.

We know the Yankees aren’t perfect. They have flaws, just like the rest of the teams in the league. Thankfully, they rode those flaws all the way to first place, so perhaps those flaws are not as egregious as we might have previously believed. On the other hand, perhaps they’re just as egregious as we believed, but the team is currently doing a good job of covering them up. The Yanks will certainly explore the trade market to see what’s available to fill these weaknesses.

The question at this point is of who’s selling. Most teams won’t admit defeat at the 1/3 mark. It might not resonate well with the fanbase, which could lead to depressed revenues for the remainder of the season. From a pure baseball standpoint, though, failing teams would do best to work the trade market right now. The sooner they trade their valuable chips, the better value they’ll receive in return. It could be the difference between getting both Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Grady Sizemore in a trade and getting just two of those.

How should a team determine if it’s out of contention this early? SI’s Tom Verducci explores the question. He notes that since the inception of the Wild Card there have been 104 teams to make the playoffs, and only three of them have made the playoffs after entering June with a record five or more games below .500 (one of them was the 2007 Yankees). In 2009, the lucky teams are the Indians, A’s, Natinals, Pirates, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. So which of these can the Yanks pillage for bench and relief help?

As we discussed last week, the Yankees could certainly look for bullpen help. Two of the more attractive names among possibly available relievers, Chad Qualls and Huston Street, play for two of the teams on Verducci’s list. What it would take to acquire them, of course, is another question entirely. It’s also unknown if the Yankees will seek external bullpen help. With both Damaso Marte and Brian Bruney working on rehab assignments, they might just sit back and see what their current guys can give them. There are also a number of high-upside arms in the minors they could give a try, such as Mark Melancon, George Kontos, and Mike Dunn.

If the Yankees did decide to seek help from elsewhere, it probably won’t be until far closer to the deadline. Given the theory of teams getting more by trading their chips earlier, one might think that the Yanks could get a better deal closer to the deadline. In this scenario, though, that theory might not apply. The D’Backs and the Rockies don’t have a pressing urgency to deal Qualls and Street, so they could ask for a sizable return no matter when the trade takes place. Other teams will surely be interested as well, which always jacks up the asking price.

Josh from Jorge Says No! presents another idea which could work to the Yanks’ advantage. Why don’t teams try to package their valuable players along with albatross contracts, rather than seek top-flight prospects in return? After all, no prospect is a sure thing; salary relief is. That would certainly make the goings tougher for the selling team, and they won’t get a good prospect package at all. It could lead to some interesting scenarios, though.

Take the Diamondbacks for instance. Surely they want to shed Eric Byrnes and the remaining $15 million on his contract, but what team would take that albatross? Perhaps one team or another would make the deal if they could also get the year and a half remaining of Qualls’s indentured servitude. Clearly, a high level prospect wouldn’t be involved here. For the Yanks, it would be a Kontos-type player or less. This type of trade makes sense for them because they’d be using their biggest advantage, financial might, to improve their team.

Now, taking on a $15 million obligation for a player like Eric Byrnes isn’t ideal. But is trading a Zack McAllister-type player for Chad Qualls a better one? It’s easy to say, because it’s not my money, but taking on an albatross in conjunction with a useful player for a B prospect seems like something the Yanks should consider. What remains to be seen, of course, is if selling teams buy into this mindset. If they do, the Yankees could have many options available to them as we approach the trade deadline.

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