To acquire Betancourt, the Yankees would not only have to offer a multi-year contract, but they’d have to forfeit their first round draft pick to the Rockies. That pick, No. 30, certainly has value to the Yankees. There’s an outside chance they can recover a first round pick if they offer arbitration to Johnny Damon and he signs elsewhere, but an arbitration offer in this case is no guarantee. Even if the Yankees did offer him arbitration and he declined, the market for his services would be depressed, because a team signing him would then have to forfeit their first round pick to the Yankees.

Of course, if Betancourt is worth more to the Yankees than the value of that first round pick, they’d consider signing him. But what is the value of that pick? It’s very difficult to say, because at this point we haven’t a clue who will fall to the No. 30 spot. After that, we have no idea if this draftee will pan out. Still, Sky Andrecheck examines the value of a first round pick.

The value depends on exactly where the pick lies. Since compensation rules protect the first 15 picks of the draft, the Cubs, at No. 16, have the most valuable pick, valued at $4 million. The Brewers, who pick 15th, would lose their second round pick by signing a Type A free agent, which would be somewhere around the 60th overall, depending on the size of the supplemental round. That pick is worth an estimated $2.5 million. The Yankees’ No. 30 pick would be valued somewhere between $3 and $3.5 million.

For deals like Mark Teixeira’s eight-year, $180 million, the value of the compensation pick isn’t much of a concern. It’s just the cost of doing business. CC Sabathia’s and A.J. Burnett’s contracts cost even less, as they cost the Yankees their second and third round picks, valued far, far less than the first round pick. Even if those deals would have cost a first round pick, it shouldn’t have deterred the Yankees. This becomes a concern, however, when signing a player to a lesser contract.

The problem isn’t just with Betancourt. The Elias rankings simply label too many middle relievers as Type A. Andrecheck explains:

The reason is that players are ranked within various positional groups, and relief pitchers have their own group. The problem with this, of course, is that unlike, say, shortstops or first basemen, most relief pitchers have relatively low value. Of relievers, only a small fraction are high-impact players such as stud closers. Therefore, when Elias rates the top 20 percent of relievers as Type A free agents, it ends up including some very mediocre pitchers. As a result, 10 out of the 23 Type A free agents are relievers, including immortals such as Oliver and Hawkins. Such players have no business being classified in the same category as Holliday or Bay, and the fact that they’re overrated by the rankings can really hurt them.

Last season we saw Juan Cruz, who pitched well in 2008, go through the winter months with few teams interested in him. Because he was a Type A free agent and had declined the Diamondbacks’ offer of arbitration, few teams were willing to pay both with money and with a draft pick. The situation got so desperate for Cruz that in late February, the Diamondbacks and Twins discussed an unprecedented sign and trade deal. Thankfully, that never came true.

I doubt many free agent relievers want to go through this again over the winter. Therefore, if Type A free agents like Darren Oliver, Kevin Gregg, Jose Valverde, and Betancourt receive arbitration offers, they might just accept. Oliver accepted last year, making his Angels return quick and painless. Still, teams like the Astros might not be so inclined to take back Valverde at an arbitration salary, and therefore might decline to offer him arbitration. That changes the landscape of the free agent setup man/closer class.

Situations like this highlight the absurdity of the free agent compensation system. It’s an anachronism, and the players would do well to get it out of the CBA in the next round of labor negotiations. I totally agree with Tango: “t doesn’t exist in other sports for ‘free’ agents, and it would not exist in MLB if we started from scratch.” I also agree to glove slap Tommy for the pointer.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Free agent rankings hurt middle relievers

First up is the guy you all know, Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. He comes in at number five on KLaw’s list:

Chapman is the wild card of the free-agent market, as his track record is largely unknown, he’s barely thrown for clubs since defecting and he’s represented by agents who haven’t handled a free agent of this magnitude before. When Chapman is on, he’ll show No. 1 starter stuff, with a fastball in the mid-90s (and yes, as high as 101 mph) with good tail and a mid-80s slider that will show plus with legitimate tilt, although the latter pitch isn’t consistent. He does have a soft changeup but lacks feel for it and pushes it out of his hand rather than selling it with good arm speed. His command isn’t good, and he’s more thrower than pitcher, with a very loose arm that makes the velocity come out easily. Since defecting, he has worked on his body and scouts who’ve seen him recently say he’s stronger and in better overall shape. He might be a No. 1 starter; he might be an ace closer; he might be a mountain of frustration. Is that worth $60 million? Or the fourth- or fifth-biggest contract of the offseason? Not to me, but he’s worth some eight-figure amount because of the almost limitless upside.

We do know that the Yanks’ brass met with Chapman during Game Six of the ALCS, although we don’t know the nature of the meetings. For what it’s worth, Chapman has met with a bunch of other teams as well, including the Mets and Red Sox.

I’m still not convinced Chapman will get the $50-60M that’s been rumored. He’ll surely get more than the $15.1M deal Stephen Strasburg got because he’s a true free agent, but in the end he’s still just a raw 21-year-old kid that’s not quiet Major League ready. Realistically, there’s not much of a difference between Chapman and what Andrew Brackman was coming out of college. Brackman had the elbow issue, sure, but the scouting report was pretty similar. Of course Chapman’s a lefty, which is a plus.

The second amateur pitcher on KLaw’s list is another Cuban southpaw, 19-year-old Noel Arguelles. He checks in at number ten:

Arguelles defected from the Cuban junior national team with current Red Sox prospect Jose Iglesias in the summer of 2008 and is just now at the point where he’s ready and able to sign with a major league team. Arguelles is 19 and already pitches with a solid-average fastball, although before he defected he had worked as high as 91-94 and will probably return there once he’s throwing on a regular schedule again. His changeup projects better than his curveball, with the change a potentially plus pitch. What everyone notices about Arguelles is his body — loose, lean, athletic, with good projection; his new agents took him underground for a few weeks to get him back into playing shape and the results have definitely impressed. If he was an American high school or junior college player, he’d be a solid first-rounder with a chance to be a top-10 guy and would probably be a $4 million bonus baby. As a free agent, he should easily double that.

Here’s a clip of Arguelles throwing a bullpen, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ Kiley McDaniel. The Yanks have been connected to Arguelles in the past, on more than one occasion too.

Chapman gets all the hype, but Arguelles is no slouch. In fact, if you’re talking bang for the buck, Arguelles at say $8M is probably a better value than Chapman at $20M. There would also be less pressure to get him to big leagues as quickly as possible. Klaw’s scouting report makes him sound a lot like Manny Banuelos, though he looked to be a little taller with more room to fill out than the 5′-10″, 160 lb Banuelos. I doubt he’s as polished as Banuelos though, few kids that age are.

While the amateur draft gets most of the attention, the Yanks have done a tremendous job bringing in lesser known, but still high caliber international free agents on reasonable contracts. For some reason, Cuban defectors cost more than their Dominican or Venezuelan counterparts, even though the skill set and level of polish may be the same. Maybe it has to do with the level of competition faced, which is negligible in most of Latin American, but pretty good in Cuba (although not as good as it had been in years past).

Although my knowledge of both Chapman and Arguelles is elementary at best, it seems like it would be wiser to take the money that could be used to sign Chapman, and instead sign Arguelles plus some other players, maybe even a Major League free agent. Of course, we’re talking about the Yankees here, so they can afford to do both. What do you think?

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Looking at two free agent amateur lefties

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yanks say Swish not being shopped, obviously

Nick Swisher! Available! Oh no! With just 87 characters, Nightengale created an uproar. Our inboxes started filling up with e-mails from RAB readers wondering if this rumor had any merit to it while Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLBTR wrote it up. Would the Yankees, already down a left fielder and a designated hitter, dare sell off Nick Swisher this off-season as well?

Of course, Swisher isn’t for sale, but debunking this rumor and contextualizing it isn’t that simple. It never is, and with the advent of the Internet, parsing rumors has grown more difficult. Let’s take this one for a ride though.

First, we must consider the source. Nightengale, a long-time vet of the Gannett daily, has a penchant rivaling that of Jon Heyman for conflating interest with a definite rumor. Here, he is taking a tidbit that isn’t quite news and spinning it into a secretive, hey-look-at-what-the-Yankees-are-doing item. That’s a clear warning sign that something is amiss.

Next, we must consider the nature of the rumor. What exactly are the Yankees doing? Well, they’re supposedly letting teams know that Nick Swisher can be had for a price. Is that news? I don’t think it is. Swisher is coming off of a rebound year in which he put up a 30.9 VORP. He is due $6.75 million in 2010 and $9 million in 2011, making him one of the more tradeable veterans on the Yanks. Of course, the team will solicit offers for him.

And that brings me to my next point. Third, we must consider what it means to be “available.” When a player is made available, it does not betray any interest on the Yanks’ part to see him shipped away. Rather, when a player is “available,” the Yankees expect other teams to put forward what they feel are reasonable proposals for this player. Without any insider knowledge, in fact, I believe this is how the Yankees acquired Swisher last year. The White Sox made him available; the Yankees made a low ball offer; Kenny Williams accepted; and the rest is history.

Beyond Swisher, though, the Yankees — and 29 other teams — generally make everyone available. Why not? Sometimes, a great trade comes along when teams aren’t actively shopping the player but when other teams know that potential trading partners are open to the idea of a trade. As far as the Yanks are concerned, the only players on the team who are not or should not be available include Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Jesus Montero. Maybe we could add Jorge Posada and A.J. Burnett to make it a Gang of 10, but for the right price, anyone is tradeable.

In the end, this rumor isn’t about the Yanks’ faith or potential lack thereof in Nick Swisher. It’s not about their plans to leave themselves with a projected Opening Day outfield of Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. It’s about exploring options and not closing the door on a move that has the potential to make the team better. Odds are good that Nick Swisher will be in right field in April, but if he isn’t, then it’s because his departure made the team better. And that’s what it means to be available.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

What it means to make a player ‘available’

What has changed between July, when the Yankees didn’t make a serious run at the available Halladay, and now? The Blue Jays’ general manager situation. They’ve since fired J.P. Ricciardi and have replaced him with Alex Anthopoulos. Learning from his predecessor’s mistakes, Anthopoulos has a different stance on Halladay than Ricciardi. The latter was hesitant to trade Halladay within the division, and also would not grant a trade partner a window to negotiate an extension. As we learned this morning, a Anthopoulos could allow an extension window. In his column this morning, Heyman notes that Anthopoulos will be more willing to deal within the AL East. Says the Jays’ GM:

“This isn’t the NBA where you’re talking about one of five guys on the floor at all times … If you have two trades that are identical, and one is in the division and one is outside, then it’s easy to go outside the division. However, if the trade is better inside the division, I think you have to take a look at it. We have to do what’s best for our organization.”

Another factor that has changed is Halladay’s price tag. As Heyman notes, the Red Sox made a large offer for Halladay in July, consisting of Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, and Nick Hagadone. From the Yankees, Heyman reminds us that the Blue Jays wanted a package centering around both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. The Blue Jays won’t get anything close to that this winter. They still should trade Halladay, but will have to accept a lesser package of prospects. That will make him more attractive to both the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Still, I’m not sure the Yankees will be serious players in this sweepstakes. They have their top two pitchers locked up for four and six more years, and they also have a number of promising young arms to complement them. Adding Halladay would be a good move for any team, but considering the price they’d have to pay, they might opt to stick with their guys and wait to see if Halladay reaches free agency next winter. I say this because even though Anthopoulos will deal more openly than Ricciardi, the Yankees have shown that they’re not keen on paying twice for a player.

Anthopoulos’s willingness to deal within the division will clearly open an avenue for the Yanks. All things equal he’d deal Halladay elsewhere, but if the Yankees have the superior offer he’s not going to spurn them. That means, however, that the Yankees would have to top any offer from another team, and the other team in question probably needs Halladay more than the Yankees. Unless the market is truly limited to just the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox (which I doubt), it stands to reason that another team would be willing to offer more for a player they need, and who would be a luxury for the Yankees.

The negotiation window also makes Halladay more attractive, though I’m not sure it’s a tipping point for the Yankees. Heyman talked to a GM who thought that Halladay could get a “Santana or Sabathia deal.” Halladay will be 33 early in the 2010 season, so I’m not sure any team will be willing to offer him a six-year extension, especially if it comes at $23 million per season. Maybe the Yankees would be willing to offer a four-year, $92 million extension (so they’d have him for five years), but again, that would mean paying a bounty in prospects and then doling out $23 million per season. That just doesn’t seem to fit the team’s M.O.

No one can rule out the Yankees acquiring Roy Halladay. He’s clearly available, and the Yankees have already been connected to him. Given the team’s past behavior, though, I doubt they get too far in negotiations with the Blue Jays. They seem more apt to make a deal for John Lackey, who will just cost money, or to take a chance on a high upside player like Ben Sheets. That’s the way Brian Cashman has operated, and unless something drastic changes in the Halladay situation, I think he’ll pitch 2010 elsewhere.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Heyman: Yankees ‘have a real reason to believe’ they can land Halladay

In other rumor news, Tyler Kepner runs down the potential organizational wishlist for the Hot Stove league. He doesn’t cover much new ground, but the summary is a succinct one of the Yanks’ desires for an outfielder, a starting pitcher and a few younger players. A team of mid-to-late 30s players can only carry a franchise so far.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Rumor du jour: An extension window for Halladay

This year’s free agent class features three of these pitchers. Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, and Ben Sheets should all be fine for Opening Day 2010, but each had trouble staying healthy in 2009. At their best they’re all very good pitchers, but because of the health questions they probably won’t cash in this off-season. That is, unless there’s a reason to believe that the injury concern isn’t too great.

Ben Sheets is a familiar name to Yankees fans. He was one of the top free agent pitchers last year, and therefore was on the Yankees radar. Before he revealed the severity of his elbow injury, Sheets was considered an alternative to A.J. Burnett — and he might even have been the better choice. After surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, Sheets played the waiting game, but ultimately did not pitch in 2009.

This could be a good thing, says Keith Law.

The year off may do him wonders, as he’s had a lot of non-arm injuries that have limited his workload for the past few years, and he was never terrible when pitching at less than 100 percent. So as this type of pitcher goes, he’s a pretty good value; not much downside with the upside of a No. 2 starter who might give you 160-180 innings.

In comparing Sheets to Burnett last off-season, Mike listed Sheets’s injury history. Law is right that Sheets has suffered many non-arm injuries, including a viral and ear infection in 2005, a torn lat in the same year, and a sprained middle finger in 2007. His most serious arm injury was a right shoulder strain in 2006, which kept him on the DL barely more than the minimum, but which also came up a month later, causing him to miss more than two months.

The latest injury is of concern, of course, raises concern because it was an arm injury. A torn flexor tendon isn’t considered as serious as a torn ligament, but it’s still an arm injury. Some teams just can’t afford to take that risk, even for a pitcher like Sheets. That will depress his market value a bit, but I’m not sure he’ll be a true bargain. There are plenty of teams that could use a pitcher like him, and I think it might mean a higher base salary and fewer incentives.

Even if other teams aren’t offering a high base, the Yankees might have to. As Tyler Kepner notes, the price on Sheets “would probably be low enough that the Yankees could afford to outbid other teams.” That’s the way things usually work with the Yankees. They have money and everyone knows it. So when the Yankees want a player that other teams want, they sometimes have to pay a premium. It’s one reason why the Yankees payroll is so high, but that’s a topic for another day.

Ben Sheets would be a great addition to any team. His injury history, and especially his latest one, make him a bigger risk than others, but his upside is perhaps the best on the free agent market. The Yankees liked Sheets when they met with him last off-season, and could certainly pursue him again this year. He’d be a gamble, and the Yankees might have to pay a premium for him, but if it works out the 2010 staff will be greatly strengthened.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Don’t expect Ben Sheets to be a bargain

It was the perfect time for the Yankees. The free agent class was strong, with a few elite and otherwise high quality players. Because a few contracts had just expired, the team had money to spend. Other teams helped too, but restricting spending at a time when the Yankees freed up resources. It all came together, and the Yankees struck. That doesn’t happen all the time, and given the Yankees current situation and the strength of the market, it doesn’t appear that the Yankees will make a similar play this year.

Cashman recently commented on the free agent situation, saying that, “You won’t see offers right out of the gate.” It signals that the Yankees will be a bit more patient with this class, knowing that adding any of the top players means yet another long-term, high-salary commitment. Over the last two off-seasons the team has added four contracts of five years or longer. I’m not sure the team is ready to add another.

This means that the Yankees probably won’t sign Matt Holliday. On his newly minted Twitter account, ESPN’s Buster Olney says that the Yankees “are not interested in signing Holliday.” In a different year, maybe the Yankees make a play for Holliday. But the Yankees already have $92.912 million committed to their 2013 roster. That does not include Derek Jeter, whose contract is up after next season and who will presumably sign a new, lucrative deal that will cover 2013. Adding Holliday (and Jeter) would put the 2013 figure close to $130 million.

Last year the Yankees took advantage of a robust free agent market. They had the money, and the players were right. Neither is true this year. The Yankees have some money coming off the books, but they also have holes to fill. While it’s nice to think of Holliday roaming left field in 2010, it means he’d also play there in 2013 and beyond. That doesn’t appear to interest the Yankees this off-season.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yankees off-season behavior will change with the year

In an excellent piece about Matsui’s medical history, David Waldstein talks with Scott Rodeo, the doctor behind Matsui’s knees. Although Hideki and his agent Arn Tellem say he could still play the outfield, Dr. Rodeo isn’t so sure about that.

Basically, Matsui’s knees are ticking time bombs. He has to be monitored continually and could need another procedure to remove loose cartilage from his knee. To rehab, Matsui must strengthen the surrounding leg muscles, and he will probably get microfracture surgery after he retires. According to the doctor, to do so now would cost him a full season of rehab. With this medical history in mind, Rodeo would not be too comfortable with his patient roaming the outfield:

Rodeo operated on Matsui’s arthritic knees a year ago. With careful supervision by the trainer Gene Monahan, he monitored Matsui’s progress throughout the season, helping him to be at optimal health for the postseason.

Now a free agent, Matsui is scheduled to see Rodeo again soon. A magnetic resonance imaging test will probably determine whether Matsui needs to have the procedure repeated. Either way, Rodeo said, Matsui could play some outfield next year.

“I think that he will probably be able to do it up to a point,” Rodeo said. “If he plays four or five games a week out there, it might start to bother him. There’s probably some level he can establish where he can play two or three days a week, but not four or five. My sense is that if you put him out there every single day, he might get into trouble.”

Meanwhile, last night at the Joe Torre Safe at Home gala, Matsui again reiterated his desire to stay with the Yankees. For the Bombers, it’s a nearly perfect situation. Matsui wants to stay and would probably be willing to settle for a reasonable amount of money. The team could sign Matsui to a short deal, and he wouldn’t need to play the outfield. Coming off of a 131 OPS+ season in which he only DH’d, Matsui can just hit and also rest those knees.

Even if the Yanks opt to let Matsui walk, he should still be viewed as a DH. Any team planning to place Matsui in the outfield would be incurring a significant amount of medical risk. He was the third most productive AL DH last year and could extend his career by giving up those dreams of returning to the outfield. I know the Yanks want to get younger and more versatile with their roster construction, but letting Matsui walk would be a mistake this winter.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

On Matsui’s knees and free agency

With the Hot Stove still to warm up this winter, we haven’t heard much about Chapman. We know what he can throw, and we know that he has visited with a good number of teams. We don’t, however, have a sense of the dollars or years it will take to sign him, and rumors have ranged from $15-$50 million. I don’t expect the Chapman talks to heat up until the Winter Meetings next month in Indianapolis, but when they do, you can bet that the Yanks will be right there in the thick of things.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Late-night reading: Aroldis Chapman, profiled