Archive for Hot Stove League
Heyman: Angels were close on CC
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yankees and CC conducted their winter dance in December, rumors were flying left and right. Joe and Mike covered the Winter Meetings in Vegas for RAB, and I was home studying for finals. To relive the madness, check out the archives here and here.
When Sabathia finally signed his eight-year, $160-million deal with the Yanks, it was unclear who else was in on the bidding. We knew that the Angels and Giants had expressed some interest, but the only other rumored offer was one for six years and $110-$120 million from the Brewers.
As the early days in December wore on, a few stories emerged. Supposedly, the Giants were interested but never made an offer. The Angels were also rumored to be in on the negotiations, but the team shot those stories down. In fact, the Yankees were rumored to be confident that neither the Angels nor Giants would approach $140 million. They wanted to blow away Sabathia, and more than a few fans thought they were overpaying and outbidding themselves for the big man’s services.
Late on Saturday though Jon Heyman added a unique twist to the story, nearly six months later. He reported via Twitter: “very late scoop — turns out the angels made a $140-million offer to CC. so yanks were wise to go from 140 to 161 mil.”
That’s quite the rub. A lot of Yankee analysts and fans pushed the line that Sabathia didn’t want to play in New York, that his heart lay on the West Coast and that he would return as soon as he could. The presence of an Angels’ offer that was fairly competitive with the Yankee offer would seemingly dispel that notion. He could have turned down that extra money for the chance to pitch in Southern California.
In the end, we now know why the Yankees went so high with their final bid: They had a competitor with the financial resources to give them a run for their money. They wanted their prize, and they went for it. The Yankees probably didn’t know what the Angels’ top offer was, but they knew they had to stay one step ahead.
So when Sabathia takes the mound in a few hours, Yankee fans should be ever grateful that CC is in the Bronx and not in Anaheim. While I always assumed Sabathia would take the Yanks’ money, perhaps it wasn’t as sure a bet as I thought it to be.
Holliday willing to play in NY
Posted by: | CommentsVia MLBTR, it turns out that Matt Holliday is willing to play in New York, which is Boras’ way of getting the Yankees and Mets involved for leverage purposes. Back in November we heard from Holliday’s father Tom, who wants his son to play for the Yankees. Me? I’d pass. I don’t want to see the team sign another player to a huge contract and be locked in at first, third and left field for the better part of the next decade. I prefer Carl Crawford, who’s nearly two years younger and a much more well-rounded player. Not to mention the fact that he’d probably come cheaper in both dollars and years.
Fun Fact: Matt Holliday has hit one homerun since August 20th of last year, including Spring Training.
Cashman’s persistence landed Teixeira
Posted by: | CommentsWe knew that Brian Cashman had a pretty damn good off-season, and that was before today’s Kat O’Brien article. The Yankees played the situation perfectly, but that might have been more out of luck than out of design. For much of the off-season leading up to the December 23rd signing, the Yankees didn’t think they’d land Teixeira. In fact, Cashman went so far as to say that “Teixeira was never really an option.”
Yet the GM realized what a good fit he was for the team. While they did have Nick Swisher in tow, there’s no comparing him and Teixeira as hitters. The lineup, while potentially solid, was rife with question marks in December, and adding another bat, especially one as consistent as Teixeira, would help shore up that concern and give the Yankees another offensive powerhouse to go with their revamped rotation. Says Cashman:
“It was something I kept pushing, but it was not really being accepted by above me . . . I guess persistence paid off. I knocked on that door, I guess, just enough that someone finally answered. Hal really gave me the OK to pursue it over a few-day period. And at that point, I still thought the Red Sox were getting him.”
Then, to Hal:
“I know you’re not interested, but they’re going to get this guy. He’s going to fall in their lap, and he’s so perfect for us.”
While it’s generally a bad idea to make moves in reaction to an opponent, the Yanks did good here because the move went far beyond countering the Red Sox. It created a swing that could easily affect the outcome of the division this year and for many to come. Teixeira would have improved the Sox offense this year and given them another dependable bat. The alternative, as they’re learning now, is to rely on Mike Lowell to remain healthy and productive for the next two years. Even then, he won’t be as productive as Tex.
Locking Tex into the first base spot for eight years would have made top prospect Lars Anderson a bit more expendable. True, there’s always the chance they could remake him as an outfielder and give him time at DH in the majors, but that’s never an ideal scenario — who knows if Anderson could handle the outfield? This, along with some decent pitching talent throughout the minors, could have enabled the Sox to pull off yet another trade to improve their team now and in the future. Imagine if they were able to trot out a rotation this year of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, and, say, Matt Cain, with Clay Buchholz and later John Smoltz ready to take the fifth spot from Tim Wakefield. That would give them a devastating lineup and a devastating rotation. I don’t think that many of us would argue with them being favorites for this season.
Things worked out in the Yanks favor, thankfully, and they reeled in the first baseman they’ve been searching for ever since Tino Martinez departed after the 2001 season. Tex can not only pick it at first, but he provides a first-rate bat which can easily replace the production of Jason Giambi’s later years, and then some.
One last interesting quote from Teixeira from O’Brien’s article:
“If the Yankees were a last-place team going nowhere, I wouldn’t be here,” Teixeira said. “So obviously, a talented team helps, and the ability to compete every single year is one of the reasons I signed with the Yankees.”
Booing Orioles fans should think long and hard about that one. They’ve got a core of young talent on board and some pitching in the minors, so they’re not necessarily “going nowhere.” But they’re a last place team in by far the toughest division in baseball. Why would Teixeira sign up for at least two years of agony with only the possibility of a payoff when he could sign for more money with a far better team which has a chance every year? Every Orioles fan would make the same decision.
A late Spring Training cut that might actually be useful
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Late last night we got word that the Marlins had released third baseman Dallas McPherson, a former top prospect with the Angels. Rated the twelfth best prospect in the game as recently as 2005 by Baseball America, McPherson was never able to grab hold of the Halos’ hot corner job and saw his career beset by a series of hip and back injuries. After signing a Major League contract with the Marlins last offseason, he brought his baseball career back from the grave with a monster year in the Pacific Coast League, clubbing 42 homers with the Simpsons inspired Albuquerque Isotopes. I think you know where this post is going.
First things first, McPherson had a phenomenal year last year (.275-.379-.618) in his first healthy year since 2004, but he was in an extremely favorable environment. The PCL is a hitters’ league in general, plus Albuquerque is at altitude (his home OPS was nearly two hundred points greater than his road OPS), giving him another nice boost. Translating his numbers to a neutral MLB environment (via the MLE Calculator) gives you a .207-.295-.440 batting line with a Mo awful 181 strikeouts in 468 at-bats. The .233 IsoP is dead sexy, and that’s pretty much right in line with his .213 career mark. There’s no doubt about it, the guy can hit the ball a long way. He just struggles making contact.
The second part you need to understand about his offense is his massive platoon split. A lefty, McPherson hit just .217-.308-.528 against his fellow southpaws last year, down from .285-.395-.635 against righties. In his big league career (128 total games), he’s managed just a .176-.218-.297 line off lefties, with a 38.5% strikeout rate. If the Yanks were tempted to bring McPherson aboard, it would have to be in a platoon situation only, which is fine because Cody Ransom is a righty and annihilates lefties (1.056 career OPS).
Defensively, he’s nothing special. Total Zone had him pegged as a zero run defender in Triple-A last year, which is about what you’d expect from him following surgery to fuse two of his freaking vertebrae together. I think his days of being a +9 UZR third baseman – which is what he was pre-injuries – are over. He can also play first, but that’s not going to make or break a deal for him.
CHONE sees a .203-.301-.409 line for McP next year, which is better than what it spits out for Ransom. Platooning the two will probably bump you up into the .250-.310-.430 range, an improvement over what you’d reasonably expect each player to do individually. Adding McPherson also allows Ransom to serve as the utility infielder (on days he starts you just slide him around if needed), which keeps Angel Berroa’s inevitable suckiness off the team, not to mention stopping all this Ramiro Pena nonsense. (Seriously, it’s Ramiro frickin’ Pena, when did this guy become the next great Yankee shorstop?)
Now, there’s two problems here. One is that the Yanks certainly won’t be the only team interested. The Astros can use a third baseman, and teams like the Giants and Tigers could use upgrades. Don’t discount the Cardinals either. The second is that once A-Rod comes back, McPherson’s useless because he can’t play anywhere other than first or third. You’d have to keep Ransom as the spare infielder because he can actually play the two middle spots. And as we’ve mentioned a bunch of times the last few months, why should we expect this guy to sign with the Yanks when other teams can offer him more playing time and greater opportunity? Because he wants to win? Puh-lease, the guy’s looking for the longest guaranteed paycheck he can find.
The Fish resigned McPherson to a one year, $500,000 contract earlier this offseason to avoid arbitration (he’s a Super Two), so they’re stuck eating that money while all his new team is on the hook for is the league minimum. He hit .239-.314-.370 in 46 at-bats this spring, but is out-of-options and the team had no room for him, hence the release. I obviously think the Yanks should look into McPherson as a temporary solution at third base, but I’m not very confident they’ll be able to land him. A gig with basically zero security beyond May just isn’t very attractive to a player in McPherson’s position. I’ve certainly been wrong in the past though, so who knows.
Photo Credit: Rick Scibelli Jr., The New Mexican
Tex appreciates Yanks’ stealth
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira on Dec. 23, 2008, it was seemingly a stealth move by the organization. While it was clear from media reports that the Nationals, Red Sox and Angels were all interested in landing the Gold Glove first baseman, the Yankees — an obvious destination for Teixeira — had seemed all but uninterested in the switch-hitter.
In an interview with WFAN on Friday, Teixeira revealed why. He had asked teams not to negotiate through the media, and only the Yankees, it seems, were able to honor that request. Said the first baseman:
“I always had the Yankees in my sights, and one thing my agent and I had asked every single team is, we’re not going to negotiate through the media, and we ask you not to. The Yankees were really the only team that did that. The other teams went out and told everybody their offers, told everybody that they talked to me, that they made this call, made that trip. The Yankees kept quiet. We talked all winter. When they were ready to make their final offer, it was a great offer, and my wife and I were excited about going to New York.”
Of the Red Sox, Teixeira was particularly critical. “I think in the end, it probably worked against them a little bit, because everyone thought the Red Sox were my No. 1 choice,” Teixeira said. “The Yankees had a leg up all along.”
It’s really interesting, to me at least, to see Teixeira pursue this line of thinking. With the onset of the Internet and the rise of blogging, free agent deals and trades have lost any sense of secrecy. Beat writers race to get rumors out there, and everyone else passes them along as quasi-facts in order to analyze them. Teams, then, have to make a concerted effort to keep negotiations under wraps.
Based on What Teixeira is saying, the Yankees did just that. Throughout December, we knew that the Yankees and Texiera were a match made in a heaven. After all, Teixeira, turning 29 right after Opening Day, was the obvious man to replace Jason Giambi, but the Yanks were quiet. Now we know they were quiet about it on purpose, and in the end, it helped them land the big prize.
I’m sure Boston fans will be all sour grapes about this, but that’s the way things are. Respect the player, respect the process, and land yourself the big fish.
Revisiting Bobby Abreu
Posted by: | CommentsWe praised the Yankees earlier this off-season for reading the bad free agent market in advance. While the team was willing to dole out top bucks to the players it wanted, the Yanks’ decision not to offer Bobby Abreu looked great in hindsight.
Of course, therein lies the rub. That’s a decision that could look great only in hindsight, and it’s disingenuous of anyone to praise it as being anything more than a gamble. When the Yanks didn’t offer Bobby Abreu arbitration, they didn’t know he would end up signing a one-year, $5-million deal. When they didn’t offer Abreu arbitration, they had no idea he would have accepted had they done so.
Five months later, it’s still impossible to judge that situation as anything other than a good decision in hindsight. Over the weekend, Ken Davidoff caught up with Abreu and spoke to the former Yankee about his self-proclaimed bad off-season:
Abreu said he was “surprised” that the Yankees never so much as made him an offer, as he enjoyed his two years and two months in the Bronx. He shouldn’t have been that surprised. They sent signals for months that, at best, they would offer Abreu salary arbitration.
As it turned out, the Yankees opted against offering Abreu arbitration – a great call, as they would have committed themselves to a one-year deal for about $18 million had Abreu accepted. The Yankees correctly predicted how the economy would impact him.
When Newsday asked Abreu if he would have indeed said yes to the Yankees’ arbitration offer, the 35-year-old said, “It depends. Like I say, if you never make an offer, you don’t want to know the answer.”
“It depends.” How telling.
At the time the Yanks could have offered Abreu arbitration, the market hadn’t yet formed, and Abreu would have had to make a quick, uninformed decision. Maybe he would have accepted, and the Yanks would have been stuck paying him a lot more than any time would or should have. Maybe he would have declined, and the Yanks would have earned themselves some draft picks.
As it turned out, had Abreu declined arbitration, he probably wouldn’t have signed for even $5 million, and the Yanks’ opting to eschew arbitration looked to be a solid move. Whether it was actually a prescient decision by Cashman and Co. or a fortuitous bit of luck, the baseball world will never know.
Rosenthal: Yanks not looking to replace A-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsAfter we found out the severity of A-Rod’s hip injury last week, Ben wrote up possible replacements, headed by Mark Grudzielanek. Once surgery became a certainty, Mark Teahen’s name popped up in the conversation. Either one could help bridge the gap separating the start of the regular season and the start of A-Rod’s season. At that point, both players could become valuable parts of a potentially strong Yankees bench. Yet Ken Rosenthal doesn’t think that the Yanks will seek an external replacement, not when the third baseman is slated to miss as few as 23 games — though Will Carroll thinks he could check in ahead of schedule.
A simple four-week replacement for A-Rod might not be the most prudent roster move it were for that sole purpose. Why pay millions, plus players in a possible trade, if you’re getting your All-Star third baseman back after just a month of the season? As I’ve argued before, the move would strengthen the bench after A-Rod’s return, making a move a bit more likely. Teahen would be ideal is that situation, since he can play more positions than Grudzielanek.
In addition to those guys are players who are in camp on minor league deals who could get the axe or opt out of their deals between now and the beginning of the season. The only name I can think of off the top of my head is Morgan Ensberg, and I’m not sure the Yanks want to try that again after last year’s failed experiment. Plus, if he plays well enough to indicate that he can play in the majors, he could very well catch on with the Rays — though they do have Willy Aybar blocking him. Other than that, can anyone else think of some minor league contract guys who could serve the Yanks’ purposes?
This is all to say that I think a short-term replacement would be a good idea now if that player can slide to the bench after A-Rod’s return, preferably filling in at many positions rather than just as a utility infielder. If a free player or a trade makes any degree of sense in that regard, I’d like to see Cashman pounce on it.
Could another Moneyballer join the Yanks?
Posted by: | CommentsWith A-Rod only missing up to nine weeks due to his hip injury, some might think it imprudent to deal for a replacement. After all, that would entail sending away what could be valuable parts to get a guy who will fill in for a month and then be relegated to bench duty. Then again, there are some in Yankeeland who want to see the bench improve, and this could provide a means to do so. Deal for a capable player who can hold down third base for a month, and once A-Rod is back use him as a player who can give other guys on the Yanks’ aging offense a day off or two.
A few commenters at RAB favored signing Eric Hinske before he landed in Pittsburgh. So what if there was a player comparable to Hinske who would just might be available right now? Via MLBTR, we hear the beginnings of a Mark Teahen to the Yanks rumor. It does make sense. The Royals don’t quite have a spot for Teahen, who has been bounced around the diamond the past few years. He came up as a third baseman, but moved around the corner outfield spots to accommodate for top prospect Alex Gordon. First base is occupied by Mike Jacobs, and behind him are Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka-aihue. The acquisition of Coco Crisp moves David DeJesus to left, and Jose Guillen and his contract are a lock in right. Even the DH spot is filled by (the lighter) Billy Butler.
The Royals plan at this point is to try out Teahen at second, but there is no guarantee that he can man the position on a daily basis. If he can’t handle it, a trade is the most likely scenario. The Yankees have a need at third base, and could later use Teahen to fill in at the corner outfields, and he could probably play second base in a pinch. This means that the Yankees wouldn’t be acquiring him just for a month of service. He can be a utility player and a bat off the bench once A-Rod returns to action.
The problem is that the Yankees will already have a backup corner outfielder in whoever loses the right field job between Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher. It would be tough to find at bats for one of those guys and for Teahen. It would help out a ton if Mark could handle shortstop, but there’s no evidence that he can. That means Cody Ransom is still needed — he’d have to be the utility infielder for the first month, anyway, but he’d be needed afterward to cover most of the infield.
Despite the lack of definitive playing time for Teahen beyond April, he’d immediately give the Yankees one of the most formidable benches in the league. Say Nick Swisher wins the RF job. The Yanks would then have Nady as a big righty on the bench and Teahen as a big lefty. Ransom and Molina would fill the other two bench spots. Both Swisher and Damon could cover center in the late innings, so there would be little hesitation to pinch hit for Melky or Gardner.
While the price tag on Teahen is unknown, it likely wouldn’t be too high. He’s slated to make $3.75 million this season. This might not seem like a lot to the Yankees, but to the Royals, who are at a $75 million payroll and would like to get to around $70, it could mean plenty — especially if he’s relegated to bench duty. A prospect and salary relief should do the job, though Royals GM Dayton Moore, quoted in the linked article, says he hopes for the Yanks to pick up Mark Grudzielanek, which would net his team a sandwich pick.
Given the month the Yanks will miss A-Rod, coupled with the risk that he could re-injure the hip at some point during the season, taking on Mark Teahen for one year would be a good idea. Not only would he give the Yankees an adequate short-term replacement, but once A-Rod is back he’d become part of a solid bench. He’d give the Yankees a late-inning left handed option, as well as someone who can spell players at four, maybe five positions (both corner OF, 3B, 1B, 2B). It sounds like a win-win for the team. The only issue is of what they’re willing to give up to make it happen.
Manny’s long national nightmare almost over
Posted by: | CommentsSomehow, someway, in a bad economy with no other potential suitors, Scott Boras is going to get Manny Ramirez his millions. According to numerous reports — rounded up by MLBTR — Manny and the Dodgers are soon going to agree to a two-year, $45-million deal. Included in this deal with be a one-year opt-out that Manny can exploit if he and Boras feel his 2009 performance and the 2009-2010 market warrant it. That the Dodgers would do this deal at this price point with an opt-out is a bit mind-boggling. Meanwhile, the Yanks have some outfield holes to fill next year, and either Matt Holliday or Manny Ramirez could wind up the beneficiary of some Bronx bucks. I’m sure the thought has occurred to Mr. Boras already.
O-Cab signs with Oakland; Crosby still not worth it
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Orlando Cabrera, one of the last remaining Type-A free agents, signed a one year deal with the Oakland A’s today, taking the starting shortstop job from the incumbent Bobby Crosby. O-Cab gets $4M for the season, and the ChiSox get the A’s second rounder and a sandwich pick for their loss (here’s the updated draft order). It seems like whenever a team signs an infielder, the natural reaction is for Yankee fans to say “they should trade for [insert displaced player here] to be the utility infielder,” but when it comes to Crosby, not so fast I say.
Once a darling amongst baseball insider types (remember when Peter Gammons & Buster Olney touted him as an MVP candidate?), Crosby’s career has basically fallen off a cliff. Over the last three years, his wOBP has settled into the .278-.288 range, and his aggregate batting line is .232-.291-.349, simply attrocious for an everyday player. He hit just .210-.269-.313 from July on last year, so there’s no second half surge to get excited about, and his BABIP’s have been in line with his career average. So yeah, don’t hold your breath expecting a rebound.
Defensively, Crosby’s okay, but nothing special. He’s spent his entire career at shortstop (minors included), so expecting him to play second or third would be based on nothing but hopes and dreams. His UZR sits around 2.0 these days, obviously better than Derek Jeter but not enough to make up for his offense. Then, of course there’s his contract, which pays him $5.25M in 2009 before sending him off to the free agent pastures after the season. Yikes.
So just say no. Fight the urge to think that every team’s displaced players would be an upgrade for the Yanks’ bench, because the only thing Crosby brings to the Yanks is additional payroll. There’s no reason to give this guy a 40-man roster spot, or trade literally anything for him.
Photo Credit: Reuters via NYT
