Despite Mike’s well-reasoned argument, the Yankees are not going to offer Andy Pettitte arbitration, according to Ken Davidoff. The Newsday scribe writes that the team is planning on extending an arbitration to Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina but not to Pudge. Team officials feel that doing so with Pettitte would give the lefty leverage to earn more than the team wants to pay him. If Pettitte feels slighted and undervalued, this move could blow back in the Yanks’ face as he jets for Joe Torre’s Dodgers. The Yanks would get burned by Pettitte and lose the draft picks at the same time. Considering that the $4 million difference isn’t that much to the Bombers, the team should just offer Andy arbitration.
Offer Andy Arbitration? Duh!
Today is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents (players have until Sunday to accept), and over the weekend we had a nice little discussion about whether or not the Yanks should offer Andy Pettitte arbitration. Most fans seem weary of Pettitte because of the combination of how he pitched in the second half (he had a 6.23 ERA & 1.68 WHIP after July 30th) and his ever increasing age (he turns 37 next June), but to me this is a no-brainer: offer the guy arbitration.
Note: Before I go any further, let me just make it clear that my opinion about offering Pettitte arbitration has nothing to do with him being a “Dynasty Yankee” or his very good, but often overblown postseason track record. Nostalgia has no place in roster moves.
While Pettitte endured his worst big league season in terms of ERA+ last year, there is also considerable evidence that bad luck played a role in his performance. Check it out:
FIP | Hper9 | Kper9 | BBper9 | HRper9 | GB/FB | Contact% | |
2007 | 3.87 | 9.95 | 5.89 | 2.88 | 0.67 | 1.45 | 81.4 |
2008 | 3.71 | 10.28 | 6.97 | 2.43 | 0.84 | 1.80 | 80.8 |
If you looked at the raw numbers without having seen Pettitte pitch over the last two years, you’d say he was at least as effective in ’08 as he was in ’07, perhaps even moreso. The slight increase in hits allowed is almost entirely negated by the decrease in walks allowed, while the improved GB/FB & contact rates indicate that Pettitte did a better job of keeping the ball down while still getting swings and misses. The significant increase in strikeouts is obviously a big plus and evidence that his stuff is still fine, but the decrease in homerun rate is a negative, albeit a small one (it’s a difference of one extra homer every 52.2 IP).
Despite the general improvements in his rate stats, Pettitte’s ERA in 2008 was just about half-a-run higher than it was in 2007. When you allow fewer walks, induce more grounders, and rack up more strikeouts than the year before without significant spikes in hits and homers allowed, you almost have to blame the defense behind him. Decreases in DER (.678 in ’07, .667 in ’08) and GIDP rate (one GIDP every 7.43 IP in ’07, one every 13.60 IP in ’08 despite increased GB rate) support this.
My one real concern about how Pettitte pitched in 2008 is how righties just tattooed him. During his career prior to ’08, Andy held RHB to a .267-.322-.395 batting line (.282-.332-.394 in ’07), but last year they smacked him around to the tune of .325-.376-.476. Via the wonder that is Fangraphs, we can see that Pettitte threw his cutter 27.9% of the time last season, up more than 10% from past years. Maybe Andy relied too much on the pitch, and because RHB saw the pitch so much last year, they were able to tee off against it. I honestly don’t know, this is all just speculation on my part, but something worth considering.
As far as the actual arbitration process goes, it’s a very low risk situation for the Bombers. If he declines, then you’re netting draft picks if he goes elsewhere (there are rumblings that he’s considering the Dodgers, but I suspect that’s just to give himself some leverage) while still maintaining the ability to resign him. If he accepts, then he’d be back for another year at $16-18M (the 20% max salary cut rule doesn’t apply to players with more than six years of service time, however that’s irrelevant because no player has ever had their salary decreased in arbitration, and it’s not about to start with Andy Pettitte despite an ever so slightly below league average year). Given Pettitte’s recent track record as a league average starter workhorse, the risk is worth it for a team with ginormous holes in it’s rotation and more money than they know what to do with.
If the Yanks choose not to offer arbitration, what do they gain? The risk of potentially paying him $16-18M is reduced, but there’s always the possibility that another team makes a big offer and they end up paying him that much money to stay anyway, maybe even over multiple years. If Pettitte does decide to go somewhere else, the Yanks would receive no compensation picks, and would have to replace Pettitte’s innings with someone who they’ll probably end up paying a similar amount of money to over several years. As the say goes, better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.
It’s a no-brainer, offer Pettitte arbitration and take the risk of overpaying him for one year rather than having to replace him by overpaying someone that may not be able to handle New York while not gaining any draft picks. Did I really need 800 words to explain something this obvious?
The Pettitte question, redux
On Friday, I posited that the Yanks should offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte. While they run the risk that Pettitte will take them to a hearing and get paid more than he deserves or the Yanks want, the odds of that happening are low. Meanwhile, if he signs with the Dodgers or elsewhere, the Yanks would net themselves two draft picks. They’ve got nothing to lose.
Ken Rosenthal, however, disagrees. He writes: “The Yankees, on the other hand, do not figure to extend such an offer to lefty Andy Pettitte. If they wanted to give Pettitte a one-year contract with an increase from his $16 million salary, they would have done it by now.” Now, I don’t agree that this is as clear-cut as he thinks, and it doesn’t seem to me that he is basing this guess on anything other than intuition. In other words, there is no insider information at work here. We’ll see how this plays out. The arbitration deadline is coming up tomorrow.
The Sabathia dance
To raise or not to raise? That is the question, and it’s one on which Ken Davidoff can’t quite get a handle. As MLBTR notes, yesterday, Davidoff’s sources said the Yanks would not raise their offer to CC Sabathia. Today, Davidoff reports that the Yankees would go higher if the Angels ever get around to making a bid. Meanwhile, unless something drastic happens, it seems as though CC will remain unsigned through the weekend. Alas.
Thanksgiving eve open thread: Bluffing in Anaheim
The Angels sure are being a bit of a thorn in everyone’s side. They may or may not be moving on Mark Teixeira. They may or may not be moving on CC Sabathia. While everyone else wants for a domino, any domino, to fall in this excruciatingly slow free agent season, the Angels are gumming up the works.
Now along comes word that perhaps the Angels aren’t too serious about CC Sabathia after all. Mark Feinsand serves as the outlet for a few unnamed Yankee sources and their intriguing speculation:
The Angels reportedly are readying themselves to jump into the CC Sabathia sweepstakes, but the Yankees met the news with relative indifference, still believing their offer ultimately will be the biggest and best…
One Yankees official didn’t seem too concerned with the news of the Angels’ supposed interest in Sabathia, which the Bombers believe is designed primarily to speed things up with Teixeira and his agent, Scott Boras.
“It sounds like they’re trying to get a message to Teixeira,” the official said. “That’s the guy they really want.”
The Angels have publicly said that Teixeira is their top priority, and the team probably needs him in the long-term more than they need CC Sabathia. So they bluff. They take the money they would have spent on Teixeira and toss it at Sabathia. At the same time, the Angels can drive up Sabathia’s price for the Yanks. My, how the wheel turns.
Could this bluff work? Sure. And if it doesn’t, then perhaps the Angels insert themselves into the Sabathia talks or go after Manny Ramirez. They need offense after all. In New York, we just sit and wait.
It’s Thanksgiving eve, and things are slow around baseball. To that end, this is your open thread for the next few hours. If something happens, we’ll have the news, but otherwise, enjoy the time with your family. Remember: Baseball news has a funny way of unfolding over Thanksgiving weekend.
With Tex, Scott Boras is at it again
Over the years, Scott Boras has done a stellar job getting more money for his clients by alleging that some other, unnamed team has already offered a lofty deal to the said client. In 2000, by most accounts, this tactic earned A-Rod an additional $25-$50 million from the Rangers. Well, he’s at it again with Mark Teixeira. As Bill Shaikin reported in the L.A. Times, Scott Boras is going around saying that “we’ve received a number of offers” for Teixeira. He doesn’t name the teams, and while teams have expressed interest, no rumored offers have emerged. Maybe Boras has these offers, but it’s more likely just a negotiating tactic. He has to get the Sabathia-less (for now) Yankees to the table somehow.
Yanks’ Plan B coming into focus
So the news that the Angels are interested in CC Sabathia isn’t exactly the way I envisioned the Yanks’ starting Thanksgiving weekend. As Joe detailed earlier today, it seems that the Angels are looking to give up the Mark Teixeira chase and go hard after Sabathia. Outside of the fact that the Angels would emerge as clear favorites in the AL West for years to come, this has clear and lasting ramifications for the Yanks.
First, let’s dismiss the desire argument. As Wallace Matthews wrote today, some fans seem to believe that Sabathia’s silence indicates that he doesn’t want to come to New York. As far as anyone knows, that just isn’t true. Sabathia is waiting for other offers for two reasons. The first is that he knows the Yanks will up their offer significantly if the Angels do deliver a similar contract. It’s a smart business tactic.
Second, while Sabathia hasn’t jumped yet at any offer, we know he seems to prefer California to the East Coast. His preference is just that. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to play here; It just means he prefers over there.
As CC stews, though, the Yanks’ back-up plans are coming into view. Two Tyler Kepner articles kicked things off last night. First, he asked on the Bats blog if the Yanks have enough offense. Next, he looked at the Yanks’ lofty expectations for A-Rod and Robinson Cano next year. With a healthy Hideki and Jorge and a better season from Cano, the Yanks feel they can score a lot of runs next year.
To that end, as Ken Davidoff wrote today, the Yanks’ Plan B seems to be just that: score a lot of runs. If the Yanks actually do lose out on CC Sabathia, they will go hard after either Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez in an effort to shore up what should be a very good lineup. For obvious reasons, Teixeira is a better long-term fit, but having Manny and A-Rod at the heart of the order would lead to many a slugfest next season.
On the pitching front, the Yanks would entice Andy Pettitte to return and would look at a few other free agents. They don’t seem willing to go to five years for A.J. Burnett, but Bryan Hoch feels that Ben Sheets is a real possibility. Considering that Sheets would sign for fewer years and less money than any other big-name free agent, he would probably be the best fit of pitchers not named Carsten Charles.
So that’s Plan B. Score a lot of runs. Use the established pitchers, sign a free agent and ask either Alfredo Aceves or Phil Hughes to stop the revolving door in the fifth starter spot. Of course, the Yanks haven’t yet lost out on Sabathia yet, but if they do and can implement this plan, it certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world.
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