Archive for Hot Stove League
Matsui noticeably absent from Elias Rankings
Posted by: | CommentsElias Sports Bureau’s free agent rankings were released earlier this afternoon, and they contain a few surprises. Despite numerous projections placing him firmly in the Type B bracket, Yanks’ DH Hideki Matsui is an unranked free agent. Although Matsui missed much of 2008 with injuries, he rebounded to have a stellar 2009 regular season campaign, and over the last two years — the period considered by the rankings — he hit .282/.368/.473 with 37 home runs and 135 RBI. Meanwhile, Xavier Nady, who played in just seven games this year, is a Type B free agent.
In unsurprising news, Johnny Damon is a Type A free agent, and Pettitte is a Type B. As Joe wrote earlier, the Yanks will most likely resign Pettitte for 2010. The remaining Yankee free agents — Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston and Jose Molina — are also unranked.
Transitioning to the off-season is a bit tougher this time
Posted by: | CommentsAt this time last year, we were in full hot stove mode. The Yankees had been home for over a month, and we’d already looked at what went wrong and what went right in the 2008 season. October was a time of reflection instead of excitement, so by the time the GM meetings rolled around we were ready to discuss all topics hot stove, from CC Sabathia to Jake Peavy, from Mark Teixeira to Nick Swisher.
This time around it’s a bit different. We’re still going to reflect on the 2009 season, but it’s coming a bit later than last year. That makes it tough to move on to the hot stove issues that face the Yankees. Yet baseball is moving on. The 30 general managers and their staffs are in Chicago this week for the GM Meetings, the first step in a long off-season. Then we’ll move on to the free agent signing period and eventually the Winter Meetings in December. Before we know it, we’ll be caught in the vortex of the hot stove.
Mike noted the important off-season dates yesterday, but nowhere on there is there a dedicated slot for memorializing the World Series champs. That’s an important part of this process. We went through a lot with the 2009 Yankees, and before we get into what the 2010 Yankees will look like, I’d like to take some time to look back on the season. So while at this time last year we were talking about Matt Holliday’s trade chances and the Peavy/Santana parallels, this year I want to talk about leadoff hits and whipped cream pies.
That’s not to say that we’re not going to talk about the fates of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, Andy Pettitte and Jose Molina. We’ll get to those topics, and we’ll tackle them with veracity. Hell, we’ll probably get to some of those off-season topics today (hint hint). It’s just going to be a bit different than last year. Before we get to the fates of Damon and Matsui, let’s remember what they meant to this championship team.
Open Thread: Important Offseason Dates
Posted by: | CommentsNow that we’ve all recovered from the madness of the last five days (somewhat), let’s take a second to look ahead to the offseason. Here’s a roundup of the important dates you need to know about for the winter.
- November 9th-11th: GM Meetings in Chicago. Definitely not as exciting as the Winter Meetings, though you may see a deal or two get done.
- November 20th: Players who filed for free agency officially hit the open market. Prior to this date, they are only able to negotiate with their current team.
- December 1st: Last day for teams to offer their free agents arbitration. Any Type-A or Type-B free agents that sign with a new team before their old team offered arbitration do bring back compensation draft picks.
- December 7th-10th: Winter Meetings in Indianapolis. Total chaos.
- December 10th: Rule 5 Draft. Last year, players had to be added to the 40-man roster on November 20th to avoid being eligible, but I’m not sure what that date is this season.
- December 12th: Last day for teams to tender contracts to unsigned players, a.k.a. no-tender day. Could easily be Brian Bruney’s last day as a Yankee.
- January 5th-15th: Salary arbitration filing period.
- January 19th: Teams and players exchange salary figures for arbitration.
- February 1st-21st: Arbitration hearings.
- March 2nd-11th: Teams can renew the contracts of pre-arbitration eligible players (0-3 years of service time) if they have not yet accepted an offer. Teams can renew players for pretty much any salary they want, though most teams (Yankees included) have a scale they use that bases a player’s salary on service time.
- March 17th: Last day to put a player on unconditional release waivers and pay only 30 days of termination pay. After this date, teams must pay 45 days worth of termination pay.
- March 31st: Last day to put a player on unconditional release waivers and pay only 45 days of termination pay. After this date, teams must pay the player their full 2010 salary.
- April 4th: Opening Day, rosters must be cut down to 25 players.
So that’s that. Now if you have any questions about when a team has to offer a player arbitration or anything like that, you can always refer back to this post.
Anyway, use this as your open thread for the night. The Cowboys and Eagles are your late game, and there’s also some new episodes of Family Guy and American Dad on as well. Some say Seth MacFarlane is a one trick pony, but I still enjoy it. Anything goes, just be nice.
Wang to check in with Dr. Andrews
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees don’t have many immediate roster decisions to make as they head into the off-season. They have just one team option to consider, Sergio Mitre’s for $1.25 million, and they will likely exercise it. Only a few players are arbitration eligible, and of them most are either easy or painless calls. The case of Chien-Ming Wang, though, is a tough one. After surgery in July to repair a shoulder capsule, Wang could start the 2010 season in July, if he starts it at all. Will the Yankees tender him a contract under those circumstances?
The Yankees will have more information at hand after Monday, when Wang visits Dr. James Andrews to check up on his right shoulder. If everything looks fine, Wang could be throwing minor league games by April or May. What I wonder is whether that timeframe is worth a potential $5.5, $6 million gamble. That’s what the Yankees would be doing by offering him arbitration. The alternative is to not tender him a contract, meaning he’d be a free agent. There are no guarantees then.
I’ve heard some people say that the Yankees have mistreated Chien-Ming, but I don’t really see it. Maybe it’s because the observation is from afar, but it seems like they did the reasonable thing. Wang had an injury history, missing all of 2001 and part of 2005 with shoulder issues. Instead of signing him to a long-term deal, they went year to year. Unfortunately for Wang, that decision worked out for the Yankees. Now they get to make a decision on how he fits into their future.
There’s no downplaying Wang’s contributions to the Yankees from 2005 through the start of 2008. He stood out during the years when the team’s pitching was thin. It would be rough to see him go, especially because we know what he can contribute. In an off-season that many think will be light for the Yankees, the decision on Wang could stand out.
How the Abreu contract affects the Yanks
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday afternoon, word got out that Bobby Abreu had agreed to a contract extension with the Angels, signing on for two more years in Anaheim. After having to wait until damn near Spring Training to find a job last year, Abreu jumped all over the $19M the Halos offered him. The deal even includes a vesting option for 2012 worth $9M, when Abreu will be 38. I mentioned this yesterday, but in two years I’m sure we’ll be hearing about ways the Angels can prevent that option from vesting.
Anyway, the entire reason I brought this up is because it indirectly affects the Yankees. Now we have a blueprint for what a new contract for Johnny Damon might look like, something we didn’t have before. The similarities between the two players are obvious: both will be 36 on Opening Day 2010 yet have proven to be extremely durable, both are former All Stars with a strong pedigree within the game, and both are defensively challenged corner outfielders. Their offensive styles are different – Abreu is more of an on-base guy with gap power, Damon offers more over-the-fence power – but in the end they’re both ~.850 OPS and ~2.8 WAR players.
Bobby’s deal will pay him $9M annually, which is about as good of a deal as he could have expected. Despite all the talk about how he “transformed the Angels lineup,” Abreu simply was not going to pull in eight figures annually on the free agent market, and the same holds true for Johnny. It’s almost inconceivable that the Yankees would offer Damon arbitration even though he qualifies as a Type-A free agent, because the risk of him accepting a getting a raise over his current $13M salary is just too great, even if it’s just one year.
It’s no secret that the New Yankee Stadium somewhat helped resurrect Damon’s career in 2009. He set a new career high with a .207 IsoP, tied his career high with 24 homers, and posted the second best slugging percentage (.489) of his career. On the road he was Jorge Cantu (.284-.349-.446), but at home he was Jason Bay (.279-.382-.533). All that makes him more valuable to the Yankees than anyone else.
Timing certainly plays a huge part of it. A few weeks ago, the thought of even re-signing Damon seemed like madness because he was slumping so badly. Now, after some late inning World Series heroics, we wonder how the team could survive without him. But two guaranteed years? I can’t see how you can lock yourself into that kind of commitment. One year plus an option? Absolutely. But you’re asking for trouble, and reducing your flexibility for next year, by bringing him back for two.
As for the money, obviously $9M a year is nothing for the Yankees. It’s overpaying, but not by an absurd amount. If you could talk him down to $7M with some incentives, you’d obviously prefer that. The bottom line is that it would behoove the Yankees not to lock themselves a commitment with Damon as long as the Angels did with Abreu. Just don’t underestimate the power of Scott Boras.
A crazy idea to fill the 2010 outfield
Posted by: | CommentsWe’ve just finished two days without Yankee baseball and we still have two to go. Once the playoffs started, I hoped we’d be busy enough to avoid the hot stove talk. Alas, I underestimated the Yankees awesomeness. Their sweep gives us a big break in the action, and inevitably we’ll stray into non-playoff topics. I promise, this is crazy enough that it might not even qualify as a hot stove post.
The biggest issue the Yankees face this season is of their outfield. Nick Swisher will be back in right field, but beyond that everything is up in the air. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner are still under team control, but they’re an average tandem. That’s not the worst thing in the world, but it could be a problem because of the imminent left field vacancy.
Johnny Damon is a free agent at the end of the season, and despite numerous reports of his desire to return, it’s no guarantee. He’ll be 36 last season and his defense has declined markedly. I’m guessing that the Yankees would sign him if the price were right, but if it’s not they’ll probably let him walk, leaving a left field vacancy. That will connect the team with Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but there’s another possible solution.
This guy on MLBTR linked to a Mets.com mailbag regarding the Mets’ off-season. One of the letters mentioned trading Carlos Beltran. See? I told you it was crazy enough to not even qualify as a hot stove post. But that won’t stop me from elaborating a bit.
Beltran would replace Damon in every way. He could replace him in left field and at the two spot in the batting order. Beltran is a better hitter than Damon, getting on base at around the same clip but hitting for more power. He also plays better defense. Both hit for a good average, and both are excellent base stealers. In almost every way, Beltran would be a great addition for the Yankees.
The problem is that the Mets won’t give him away. If they can’t get something they can use to rebuild their team, they’ll just keep him. The Yankees are one of the few teams that can eat Beltran’s $37 million salary between 2010 and 2011, but I’m not sure the Yankees and the Mets match up well for a trade.
Then there’s the issue of the Yankees’ opportunity to sign Beltran after the 2004 season. The team had already signed Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, and had traded for Randy Johnson, when Scott Boras laid it out for the Yankees: $100 million over six years. Had they signed him then, he’d have just one year and somewhere between $16 and $18 million remaining on his deal. It would hurt to trade for him under the terms the Mets negotiated.
If Carlos Beltran were a free agent, the Yankees might consider signing him. He’ll be 33 in the 2010 season and is coming off a pretty serious knee injury, so there are risks — risks that make trading for him a likely nonstarter. More than anything, it makes me wonder what the Yanks would be like if they had kept Vazquez and signed Beltran that winter. I think the team might be a little bit stronger.
Could Matsui stay in New York?
Posted by: | CommentsBut with the Mets? Some guy with the same name as me at MLBTR passed along this report from Newsday, where David Lennon speculates that Yanks’ DH Hideki Matsui could wind up in Flushing with the Amazin’s next year. Allow me to quote:
With Hideki Matsui telling friends he’d like to remain in New York above all else, as well as return to leftfield, it would be logical for the free agent to appear on the Mets’ radar this offseason.
In fact, Matsui is so eager to play the field again after a full year as the Yankees’ designated hitter that he’s also told people he would consider trying first base – a position he hasn’t played since high school.
[snip]
One baseball official suggested that the limited duty for Matsui this season will work to his advantage in allowing him to return to the outfield. With less wear and tear at DH, it was a chance for Matsui to recharge, and another four months off during the offseason obviously will be a big help, too.
The Mets obviously need all the help they can get, but can Matsui hold up all year while playing in the field? In leftfield, I’m not so sure it could be done. Godzilla needed to have his knees drained a few times this year after doing nothing more than running hard around the bases. Maybe he could pull it off at first, but he’ll almost assuredly be a negative-UZR player there, likely Giambi-esque.
Of course, Matsui’s amazing production this year (.274-.367-.506 with 28 jacks) is going to make it real hard for the Yankees to let him walk away. Granting, he’s not worth his $13M salary, so it’s unlikely the team will offer his salary arbitration after the season, even though he projects to be a Type-A free agent. FanGraphs valued his 2009 production at $11M, though I would be shocked if he pulls down eight-figures next year. What do you guys think, does one year at $8M seem reasonable for Matsui’s services next year?
Previewing the Jason Bay ’sweepstakes’
Posted by: | CommentsIn a few weeks, current Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay will hit free agency for the first time in his career. With 36 home runs and 117 RBI, Bay is putting together some lofty stats at an opportune time, but still, his season comes equipped with numerous warning signs. Although the Yanks have been one of many teams mentioned as interested, they should become involved with Bay only to drive up the price for the Red Sox.
Through the middle of 2008, Bay excelled in relative obscurity. A darling for fantasy team owners, he was a stand-out player on years’ worth of terrible Pirates teams. He left Pittsburgh with a .281/.375/.515 line in six seasons and 131 home runs to complement the 131 OPS+. Bay arrived in Boston as a key piece in the three-way trade that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles and clearly had some big shoes to fill.
While not nearly as good as Manny — who is? — Bay has found success in Boston. Through 198 games, he has a 132 OPS+ and has hit 45 home runs. His triple slash line this season— .275/.382/.537 — is impressive, and more than a few teams will come a-knockin’ when he hits free agency this winter.
Earlier this week, MLB Trade Rumors summarized the state of the Bay sweepstakes. Alex Speier in Boston believes that the bidding could reach $14-$15 million for Bay and that the left fielder will receive at least four years. Speier feels that Boston return is a “legitimate possibility” but notes that at least seven teams — including the Yankees — could have the interest and money to sign Bay.
To which I say, “Pass.” Right now, Jason Bay is a productive middle-of-the-order hitter, but warning signs abound. The most obvious problem is his age. He is 31, and his free agent contract will cover his decline years. With that in mind, we turn to his defense. Right now, it is atrocious. He hasn’t had a positive UZR since 2006, and even in Fenway’s limited left field, he’s putting up a -12.3 mark this year. While he may be worth 34.3 offensive runs above average, he is 12.3 defensive runs below average. That number will just get worse as he gets older.
Also of concern are his strike outs. He has a career-high 159 strike outs in 60 fewer plate appearances than when he sruck out 156 times in 2006. As he ages, his bat speed will slow, and that total should continue to climb.
Now, don’t get me wrong; Jason Bay is a very good hitter. His power bat would profile nicely for Yankee Stadium. Considering, however, the costs, years, his age and defense, I can’t see the Yanks expressing much legitimate interest. If the Yanks can force Boston to overpay for Bay without landing Bay themselves, well, that is a decent off-season plan.
Link Dump: Aroldis Chapman Edition
Posted by: | CommentsCuban southpaw Aroldis Chapman is primed to be a hot topic this winter, and just like with every other big name free agent, the Yankees figure to be interested in his services. Let’s round up the latest news surrounding the 21-yr old…
- Major League Baseball officially declared Chapman a free agent over the weekend, so he could technically sign with any team today, if he wanted.
- Back in July when he originally defected, I asked Keith Law what he thought about him during one of his ESPN chats. Here’s what he said: “I talked to a longtime scout – I mean, been at this 40 years – in the spring who said he was the best young LHP he’d ever seen. On good days he’ll touch 100 with a slider in the upper 80s, but he hasn’t been that guy every time out – I talked to another scout who saw him last year, I believe in Beijing, who had him topping out around 90 – and there are all kinds of rumors as to why. The upside probably puts him into $40-50 million territory, if not more …”
- Here’s the PitchFX data for Chapman’s start against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic. As you can see, he topped out at 100.2 mph, but it looks like he tired because his velo dropped after 40 pitches or so. That’s not a really big concern, no one’s in tip-top shape in March.
- Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus used some historical data translate Chapman’s stats in Cuba to the low levels of the minors here, and while the 9.3 K/9 is pretty, the 2.5 HR/9 and 7.4 BB/9 are awful. However, four of his closest statistical comps (Brian Fuentes, Mike Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink, and Oliver Perez) have gone on to have varying degrees of big league success.
- Chapman would probably rank as one of the top 25 prospects in the game according to Baseball America’s Jim Callis, although he wouldn’t supplant Jesus Montero as the Yanks’ top farmhand. No one tops the Jesus.
- And last, but certainly not least, here’s a clip of the kid in action.
Pondering Brandon Webb
Posted by: | CommentsWhile Yankee fans do not often find themselves much concerned with the affairs of the Arizona Diamondbacks, this off-season may see a prized D-back pitcher hit free agency. Brandon Webb is Arizona’s equivalent to Chien-Ming Wang. A sinkerball specialist, who, by the way, like Wang, Webb has missed nearly all of 2009 with shoulder problems. His contract features an $8.5 million team option that may push Webb into a shallow free agent pitching pool.
Over the last week, news from the desert has focused around this bonus. The Arizona Front Office wants to restructure the option to be incentive-based. After all, there is no guarantee that Webb will rebound after throwing just four innings at the Major League level this year (and all on Opening Day). But Webb will have none of it. He says he’ll be healthy for 2010 and is more than willing to test the free agent waters.
Earlier today, Chris at iYankees pointed the way to a rumor linking Webb with the Yanks, among other teams. In a video post, Buster Olney reports that the Yankees could offer Webb a one-year deal come this off-season. The usual suspects — Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, and White Sox — also figure to keep an eye on Webb. That ought to keep Webb’s value up.
Olney’s report is contingent upon the D-backs’ desire to save $6.5 million. If they don’t pick up Webb’s option, the buy-out is $2 million, and sources in Arizona anticipate Webb returning next year. It is, however, nice to dream.
For his career, Brandon Webb has an ERA+ of 142 and a K/9 IP of 7.3. Before coming down with a shoulder injury this year, he had never missed a start. He throws a heavy and hard sinker similar to Wang’s, but unlike the Yanks’ injured pitcher, Webb has better command of his secondary pitches. He uses those pitches to get the strike outs that Wang doesn’t.
Heading into next year, the Yankees will have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett atop their rotation. Joba Chamberlain, despite the posturing, will be there, and Andy Pettitte will probably return. The last spot then will go to some mix of Phil Hughes, Al Aceves, Ian Kennedy or Chien-Ming Wang. If Webb is a free agent, adding him to the mix would give the Yanks some stellar depth. As fun as it is to ponder, I wouldn’t count on it though.
