Scouting The Free Agent Market: Juan Uribe

(Mike Ehrmann/Getty)
(Mike Ehrmann/Getty)

It is entirely possible the Yankees are done making moves this offseason. They have a full lineup, a full rotation, more than enough bodies for the bullpen, and three-fourths of a bench. The team has some internal candidates for that final bench spot, and really, how they fill that spot will depend on Starlin Castro‘s ability to play third. He hasn’t manned the hot corner aside from a handful of games back in rookie ball.

Castro is still relatively new to second base — he only played 258 innings at second last season — and asking him to learn third base as well might be too much, too soon. Using that final bench spot for a proper backup third baseman sure seems like a good idea, no? Veteran infielder Juan Uribe remains available as a free agent and is a candidate to provide depth at third as well as another right-handed bat. Let’s see if he makes sense for the Yankees.

The Offense

A few years ago it looked like Uribe was done. Like done done. The now 36-year-old hit .204/.264/.293 (56 wRC+) with the Dodgers in 2011, then followed it up by hitting .191/.258/.284 (52 wRC+) in 2012. Yikes. The Dodgers were on the verge of releasing Uribe early in 2013, though he rebounded that season to hit .278/.331/.438 (116 wRC+), reviving his career. Here are his three most recent seasons.

PA AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR K% BB% wRC+ vs. RHP wRC+ vs. LHP
2013 426 .278/.331/.438 116 12 19.0% 7.0% 115 118
2014 404 .311/.337/.440 121 9 19.1% 3.7% 125 106
2015 397 .253/.320/.417 104 14 20.2% 8.6% 90 146
Total 1,227 .281/.329/.432 114 35 19.4% 6.4% 110 124

After spending the 2013-14 seasons with the Dodgers, Uribe split the 2015 season with the Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The Dodgers sent him to Atlanta in a very weird trade — the primary piece they got back was up-and-down lefty Ian Thomas — then the Braves shipped him to the Mets at the trade deadline for actual prospects. The Mets grabbed Uribe to beef up their bench down the stretch.

Uribe faced left-handers primarily after landing with the Mets last season, hence the massive platoon split. He simply didn’t play a whole lot against righties. Given his age, I’m not sure you could realistically expect Uribe to be a regular against same-side pitchers at this point of his career. Sure, he might be able to do it once in a while, but it’s not the best idea. I’m guessing most view Uribe as a righty platoon bat going forward.

Generally speaking, Uribe has some pop against southpaws (.209 ISO from 2013-15) and he tends to draw more walks (8.4%) against them as well. He doesn’t provide much value on the bases — Uribe has attempted eight steals over the last three years and he’s taken the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) only 37% of the time, below the 41% league average — so his offensive value comes exclusively from his bat. That’s fine. That makes him like most other players.

Uribe has a reputation for being a clutch hitter, though the stats don’t really bear that out. He does have two World Series rings (2005 White Sox, 2010 Giants) but is a career .209/.246/.342 (57 wRC+) hitter in 170 postseason at-bats. Uribe has also hit .282/.348/.392 (105 wRC+) with men in scoring position the last three seasons and .274/.338/.395 (103 wRC+) in high-leverage spots, which is right in line with his overall numbers.

The clutch stuff is just noise. The most important thing is Uribe’s ability to hit left-handed pitchers and do so while playing part-time. Being a bench player is hard. Players aren’t used to sitting around for a few days between at-bats. Uribe did it for the Mets late last season (especially after David Wright returned from the DL) and that’s not nothing. He’s a quality bench hitter against left-handed pitchers.

The Defense

Although he’s on the portly side — listed at 6-foot-0 and 235 lbs. — Uribe is a shocking great defender at the hot corner. Both DRS and UZR have rated him as well-above-average at third base in recent years, and the eye test agrees as well. Uribe has good range, vacuum cleaner hands, and a very strong arm. There are some defensive plays in this highlight reel:

Uribe originally came up as a shortstop but he hasn’t played the position regularly since 2010 or at all since 2012. The Mets did use him at second base some last season — he hadn’t played the position at all since 2011 — and he held his own. He wasn’t great but he wasn’t a disaster there. Uribe is primarily a third baseman who can play second base in a pinch, so he doesn’t offer a ton of defensive versatility.

Injury History

A chest injury kept Uribe out for the final few weeks of the regular season as well as the NLDS and NLCS last year. (The Mets didn’t add him to their postseason roster until the World Series.) It was a fluke injury — Uribe dove for a ball (against the Yankees) and landed hard. He had some bruising that didn’t allow him to swing or throw properly, and it took time to heal.

Aside from that, Uribe has had some on and off hamstring issues the last few years, including pulls that required two separate DL stints in 2014. That’s really it. Uribe had some wrist issues back in 2012 and a sports hernia in 2011, neither of which has given him trouble since. The nagging hamstring trouble is a bit of a red flag but not a deal breaker. He’s not a pitcher with a history of arm problems or anything like that.

Contract Projections

Uribe was not eligible for the qualifying offer because he was traded (twice) at midseason, though he wasn’t a candidate to receive one anyway. There’s no draft pick to consider. FanGraphs was the only publication to consider Uribe a top 50 free agent and their crowdsourcing results spit out a two-year contract at $8M per year. That’s cheap starting infielder money.

Obviously there’s no reason for the Yankees to seriously consider Uribe at that price. That’s way too expensive for a bench player, even a potentially very good one. It’s starting to get a little late in the offseason, and off the top of my head, the only teams potentially in need of a starter at third base are the Indians, Angels, Braves, Reds, Brewers, and Pirates. The Braves, Reds, and Brewers are rebuilding teams with younger and cheaper options, so they’re long shots.

Uribe’s market appears to be pretty limited — teams in need of third base help may prefer the still unsigned David Freese because he’s several years younger — so that two-year, $16M projection seems pretty far-fetched. He’ll probably have to settle for a smaller one-year contract, similar to Mike Aviles ($2M), Gordon Beckham ($1.25M), Stephen Drew ($3M), Kelly Johnson ($2M), and Sean Rodriguez ($2.5M). Playing time and being with a contender may be bigger priorities at this point of Uribe’s career than cash.

Wrapping Up

One thing I have to mention that doesn’t fit in any of the previous categories is Uribe’s reputation for being a Grade A teammate and fan favorite. He’s ultra-popular. Many players have called Uribe their favorite teammate over the years and he has a knack for colorful quotes — “I have to get another contract to buy more cars,” he said to David O’Brien last summer when asked about his upcoming free agency. And then there’s the jazz hands:

Juan Uribe jazz hands

Outstanding. He does that after almost every swing too. Uribe reacts like he hit a home run every time he puts a ball in play. It’s pretty fun. None of this affects his on-field value, though being a great teammate and a fan favorite is not nothing either.

Anyway, even with his limited defensive versatility, Uribe seems like he would be a really great fit for that final bench spot. He’d give the Yankees a true backup third baseman and another right-handed hitter to help combat southpaws, who chewed the the team up down the stretch last season. That Uribe has experience being a bench player and going long stretches of time without playing is a plus in by book as well. No adjustment period.

Price and playing time may be an issue, however. Uribe has been pretty productive in recent years and he could be holding out for a starting spot — and a starter’s salary — which I understand. It might not be realistic at this point, but I get it. If Uribe is willing to take a low base salary one-year contract and serve as a backup/platoon bat, the Yankees would be wise to scoop him up for that final bench spot.

Gordon’s deal a reminder the Yankees have Gardner on very favorable terms

(Ed Zurga/Getty)
(Ed Zurga/Getty)

Yesterday morning, the first of the still unsigned big name free agent outfielders came off the board. The Royals re-signed Alex Gordon, their longest tenured player, to a four-year contract worth $72M. The deal includes a mutual option for a fifth year and deferrals to help the team add some more pieces this offseason.

I thought Gordon had a chance to get $100M this offseason, though his age (32 in February) and the fact he’s not a big time power producer hurt his case for nine figures. Gordon’s simply a very good all-around player who does a little of everything. He’s something of an icon in Kansas City and going back to the Royals made sense for both sides.

The Yankees have their own version of Gordon in Brett Gardner, at least in terms of on-field ability. Gardner does not have the same kind of marquee value as Gordon, who is more or less the face of the Royals’ recent revival. The two are similar on-field players though. They both do a little of everything and have their greatest impact defensively.

Here’s a real quick side-by-side comparison of Gardner and Gordon from 2013-15. They’re both 32-ish — Gardner turned 32 in August and is six months older than Gordon — and they’re both left fielders, so this is a nice apples to apples comparison.

PA AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR-SB BB% K% BsR fWAR bWAR
Gardner 1,901 .262/.338/.412 109 41-65 9.3% 20.8% 14.9 9.4 11.6
Gordon 1,765 .267/.348/.428 115 52-25 9.4% 20.3% 12.2 13.1 13.6

Gordon’s the better player and I’m not sure anyone would argue otherwise. They are pretty darn similar though, right? Gordon has been the slightly better hitter and Gardner the slightly better base-runner. If you’re still hung up on Gardner’s second half, well, Gordon had an 89 wRC+ in the second half last year and missed time with a groin injury. Heck, Gordon’s injury opened the door for Gardner to make the All-Star Team.

If you’re focusing on the WAR totals, the difference between Gordon and Gardner the last three years basically amounts to whatever the defensive stats are spitting out, and we know how sketchy those can be. Gordon is undeniably great in the field. Gardner’s pretty awesome too though. For whatever reason UZR has been hating on Yankees outfielders since the new Yankee Stadium opened. It is what it is.

(Al Bello/Getty)
(Al Bello/Getty)

Anyway, yes, Gordon is the better player but Gardner is pretty good too, and Gordon’s new contract helps give us an idea of what Gardner is worth these days. He has three years and $37.5M left on his contract. It’s four years and $50M if his option is exercised. Gordon just received $72M over four years, so the total guaranteed money left on his contract is nearly double what’s left on Gardner’s deal.

Is Gordon twice as good as Gardner? No, of course not. That’s what happens when one player signs his contract as a free agent and the other signs his contract as an extension a year before he hits the open market. Lots of teams out there need outfield help — the Tigers, Giants, Orioles, and Nationals jump to mind — and if they want a player comparable to Gardner, they’ll have to commit almost twice as much money as the Yankees owe the actual Brett Gardner.

The Yankees have been listening to offers for Gardner all offseason because in this market he is, absolutely, a bargain. He’s budget friendly relatively to what it would cost to get similar production on the open market. The Yankees have a lot of outfield depth and it makes sense to see what Gardner can fetch in a trade. So far they haven’t received any offers to their liking, so Brett remains with the team. That’s fine with me.

It’s become clear the market — what teams are willing (and able) to pay for talent — is ahead of where most of us think it is as fans. Players like Gordon and Gardner, the solid above-average guys who aren’t true stars, are getting close to $17M or $18M a year in free agency. The Yankees have Gardner on really favorable terms, and I see that as reason to both keep him and explore the trade market.

Last bench spot, Triple-A depth among remaining items for Yankees this offseason

(Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)
(Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

A new year is upon us. We’re now in 2016, the holidays are in the rear-view mirror, and Spring Training is less than seven weeks away. There are a lot of really good free agents still available, so January figures to be busier than usual. Will the Yankees be among those who make is busy? We’ll find out soon enough.

The Yankees right now are not a finished product because there is no such thing as a finished product in baseball. There are always upgrades to be made, with every roster. Even the 1998 Yankees had room for improvement. (Do you remember Mike Stanton had a 5.47 ERA that year? I totally forgot.) The 2015 Yankees are certainly no different.

So far this offseason the Yankees have upgraded at second base (Starlin Castro), on the bench (Aaron Hicks), and in the bullpen (Aroldis Chapman). They’ve also added some Triple-A rotation depth (Luis Cessa and Chad Green), which is not insignificant. What’s left on the offseason? These four items, in no particular order.

The Last Bench Spot

Assuming the Yankees go with a normal four-man bench and don’t try to get fancy with an eight-man bullpen or six-man rotation, the bench right now figures to be Hicks, Dustin Ackley, the backup catcher, and a fourth player. Gary Sanchez or Austin Romine or someone else entirely will be the backup catcher. For now we’re only interested in that fourth player.

The Yankees’ willingness to play Castro at third base — as well as Castro’s ability to play third base — will have a big impact on that fourth bench player. Castro hasn’t played third since rookie ball, and even that was only a handful of games. If he’s comfortable at the hot corner, the fourth player can be pretty much anything. An infielder, an outfielder, a third catcher, whatever. Every position would be covered.

But, if Castro is not capable of playing third on occasion, the Yankees will need to use that fourth bench spot on a player capable of backing up third. (Ackley doesn’t have the arm for third at all.) That player should not be limited to third — that’d be a real waste of a bench spot — but he’d have to be able to play it. Someone who can play the infield corners and maybe a little left field in a pinch would be ideal, I guess.

With any luck, Castro will be willing and able to play third whenever Chase Headley needs a day off or has to be lifted for a pinch-runner. The fourth bench spot could then be almost something of a revolving door — Rob Refsnyder when some lefty starters are coming up, Slade Heathcott when an outfielder is banged up, stuff like that. Determining the backup third baseman is pretty important.

Rumblin' Rumbelow. (Al Bello/Getty)
Rumblin’ Rumbelow. (Al Bello/Getty)

The Middle Innings

The Yankees have a great end-game bullpen (Chapman, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances) and a few long man candidates. With any luck everyone will get through camp in one piece and Ivan Nova can assume the swingman role. Those three middle reliever spots are wide open and the Yankees have no shortage of candidates. Here’s a list:

Righties: Nick Rumbelow, Branden Pinder, Nick Goody, Bryan Mitchell, Vicente Campos, Johnny Barbato, Cessa, Green

Lefties: Chasen Shreve, Jacob Lindgren, James Pazos

Every single one of those guys except Green is on the 40-man roster. Surely the Yankees can cobble together three reliable middle relievers from that group, right? You’d think so, but who knows. None of the shuttle relievers impressed last summer and Shreve seemed to wear down big time late in the season. And yet, he’s the most established of this group.

The Yankees showed an awful lot of faith in their young players last year and that figures to carry over to next season, so it’s entirely possible they’ll stick with in-house options for that final bullpen spot. Minor league signings and waiver claims could factor into the equation, but generally speaking, that’s the list of candidates. If the Yankees prefer a more established player, they could swoop in to sign a free agent.

Either way, the Chapman/Miller/Betances three-headed monster is going to cure a lot of bullpen ills next season, especially since Joe Girardi can now be a little more liberal with the way he uses Dellin. The Yankees have been very good at building bullpens in recent years and regardless of which direction they decide to go with those three open spots, I’m sure they’ll find some quality arms.

Third Base Depth

This is kind of a big deal. Right now the Yankees have a Grade-A backup plan for Mark Teixeira at first base in Greg Bird, and behind Castro at second is Ackley and Refsnyder. Castro is backing up Didi Gregorius at short and Pete Kozma was signed to a minor league deal for middle infield depth. The first base, second base, and shortstop depth charts looks solid.

Third base is where it gets a little tricky. Eric Jagielo, who was slated to start the season at the hot corner for Triple-A Scranton, was included in the Chapman trade last week. That leaves Rob Segedin and Dante Bichette Jr. as third base candidates for the RailRiders, and, well, no. The Yankees don’t have a true backup third baseman — maybe Castro can handle it, but that’s nothing more than a maybe right now — and don’t have a Triple-A third baseman.

Regardless of whether the Yankees go with Castro as their backup third baseman at the MLB level, bringing in someone to handle the position in Triple-A is almost a necessity. Cole Figueroa did the job just fine last season. It doesn’t need to be a star. A minor league free agent like Conor Gillaspie would work. The Yankees have basically zero third base depth right now, not even in the minors. That has to be rectified.

A Young Starter, If They Can Find One

This isn’t really an offseason item. It’s an always item. Teams are always looking for young pitching and the Yankees are looking extra hard right now because of the state of their rotation. Five of their six starters can become free agents within the next two years, assuming their current injury concerns don’t throw a wrench into things first.

It’s much less likely now the Yankees will obtain a young starter than it was at the start of the offseason. I’d be surprised if they landed one now, but hey, you never really know. If that is indeed the case, the search for a young starter will carry over into the regular season, which means Miller and Brett Gardner aren’t going anywhere for the time being, and we’ll have several more weeks of rumors to deal with.

Cafardo: Marlins have had interest in Ivan Nova

(AP Photo/Gail Burton)
(AP Photo/Gail Burton)

The Marlins have had interest in right-hander Ivan Nova this offseason, according to Nick Cafardo. Joe Frisaro says Miami is close to signing Edwin Jackson, but he mentions they still want to add more pitching. They’ve been connected to reclamation project guys like Jackson and Doug Fister. I’d say Nova qualifies as a reclamation project given his 2015 season.

Right now the Marlins have two open rotation spots behind Jose Fernandez, Tom Koehler, and Jarred Cosart. Jackson would presumably fill one. David Phelps, Adam Conley, Brad Hand, and Justin Nicolino are among the guys in line to compete for a rotation spot in camp. There’s an openings there and buying low on Nova or Fister or whoever makes a lot of sense for Miami.

Realistically, what can the Yankees get for Nova at this point? Probably not a whole lot. Martin Prado would be a wonderful fit for that last bench spot, but that’s not happening. No team is trading their starting third baseman for Nova. Derek Dietrich would be both an interesting lefty utility man and totally redundant with Dustin Ackley. (Dietrich can play third base though, which is not insignificant.)

Chances are the Marlins would be looking to trade prospects for Nova, and while prospects are cool, the Yankees are probably better off keeping Nova for depth than trading him for a few Grade-C minor leaguers. I do think there’s a chance Nova will perform better next season as he gets further away from elbow surgery, and if that happens, the Yankees could always look to move him at the deadline. Plus it’ll be good to have the depth given all the injury concerns in the starting five.

The Yankees have spent much of the offseason shopping (or at least gauging interest in) Nova, Brett Gardner, and Andrew Miller. Right now I think they’re going to end up hanging on to all three. Then again, I might feel differently next week, so who knows. I would be surprised if the Yankees went the rest of the offseason without doing anything though. They’re not done adding pieces.

Scouting The Trade Market: Alex Wood

(Mike Stobe/Getty)
(Mike Stobe/Getty)

After losing Zack Greinke to the division rival Diamondbacks earlier this offseason, the Dodgers finally took some steps to improve their rotation last week, signing both Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda. Those two will join Clayton Kershaw and Brett Anderson in the rotation. Alex Wood and Mike Bolsinger figure to round out the starting staff until Hyun-Jin Ryu (shoulder) and Brandon McCarthy (elbow) are healthy.

Since the Maeda signing, there’s been speculation the Dodgers would be open to trading Wood for help elsewhere on the roster. (For what it’s worth, there was talk Los Angeles would flip Wood to the Cubs or Indians at the trade deadline.) GM Farhan Zaidi said they’re still trying to add to the rotation — “To the extent that adding more certainty to the rotation is an option for us over the next couple of months, we’ll definitely continue to look,” he said to reporters following the Kazmir deal — though that’s something every GM says.

The Yankees are in the market for rotation help, particularly a young starter they can control beyond the next two seasons. A left-hander would be preferable — CC Sabathia is the only southpaw starter either in MLB or remotely close to MLB in the organization at the moment — but isn’t a necessity. Quality is more important than handedness. Anyway, let’s see whether Wood is a fit for the Yankees.

The Performance

The Braves picked Wood right out of their backyard (University of Georgia) with their second round pick in the 2012 draft. The 24-year-old zoomed through the minors and made his big league debut in May 2013. He started out as a reliever and eventually moved to the rotation. Here are Wood’s two and a half seasons in the big leagues:

G/GS IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 RHB wOBA LHB wOBA
2013 31/11 77.2 3.13 2.65 23.6% 8.3% 49.1% 0.35 .307 .280
2014 35/24 171.2 2.78 3.25 24.5% 6.5% 45.9% 0.84 .288 .299
2015 32/32 189.2 3.84 3.69 17.4% 7.4% 49.5% 0.71 .343 .228
Total 98/67 439.0 3.30 3.34 21.2% 7.2% 48.1% 0.70 .316 .267

That all looks pretty good, doesn’t it? Wood has a history of missing bats and getting grounders, the latter of which has helped him keep the ball in the park. (Playing in pitcher friendly Turner Field and Dodger Stadium helped too.) His walk rates have been fine and, up until last season, his platoon split wasn’t huge.

Last season was Wood’s first as a full-time starter and his strikeout right fell big time while his platoon split stretched out substantially. That leads me to wonder what his performance as a starter looked like from 2013-14. Are his numbers as a reliever skewing things? Here’s the split:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9
as SP 402.0 3.31 3.42 20.6% 7.2% 47.8% 0.72
as RP 37.0 3.16 2.41 27.8% 7.3% 52.1% 0.49

Like most pitchers Wood has been more effective in relief throughout his career, albeit in a small sample. His numbers as a starter from 2013-14 are much better than his numbers as a starter in 2015 though. Look at the averages — he had a 17.4% strikeout rate last year but is at 20.6% overall as a starter in his career.

Generally speaking, Wood’s performance is rock solid. He’s not a front of the rotation guy or anything like that, but he has been an average or better starter over the years. The big dip in strikeout rate and suddenly massive platoon split last season are curious. Not sure I’d call them red flags just yet, but they exist. Something happened there.

The Stuff

From a stuff perspective, Wood is nice and simple. He throws three pitches: a sinker, a changeup, and a breaking ball. The breaking ball is pretty slurvy — at times it looks like a curveball and at others it has shorter break like a slider. Wood’s stuff doesn’t qualify as electric but it does play up because of his ridiculous delivery. I don’t know how to describe it. Just watch:

I can’t imagine Wood is a comfortable at-bat. He’s a deceptively big guy — he’s listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 lbs. on the team’s official site — and that herky jerky delivery is all arms and legs. There’s a lot of moving parts. The hitters react to Wood’s sinker like it’s 4-5 mph faster than it really is. Look at the swings in the video. They don’t seem to pick up the ball well out of his hand.

Wood has thrown the sinker roughly 60% of the time throughout his career and both the breaking ball and changeup about 20% of the time each. Wood’s not one of those fastball/breaking ball guys with a show-me changeup. He legitimately uses all three pitches, which is why he’s had success as a starter.

The three-pitch repertoire and the deception are nice. This is not:

Alex Wood velocityWood’s velocity is trending downward and not so gradually either. His sinker went from averaging 92.5 mph in 2013 to 89.8 mph in 2015. That’s almost a 3 mph decline in the span of three seasons for a guy who has yet to turn 25. Yikes. Also, Wood has a history of losing velocity in the second half, indicating he wears down during the season.

Furthermore, Wood operated at basically two velocities last season. His sinker was right around 90 mph and both the breaking ball and changeup sat around 83 mph. Two years ago it was a low-to-mid-90s sinker, a mid-80s changeup, and a breaking ball around 80 mph. That’s three distinct speeds. Now it’s only two. Chances are that contributed to Wood’s falling strikeout rate.

Because of his falling velocity, Wood now is not the same guy that he was two years ago. His 2013 performance — which was split between the rotation and bullpen anyway — is much less relevant than his 2015 performance. Last year Wood set career worsts in ERA and FIP. The decline in stuff suggests it’s no fluke.

Injury History

Wood is a Tommy John surgery survivor. He had his elbow rebuilt in the spring of 2009 and took a medical redshirt as a freshman as Georgia. Wood was also shut down late in the 2014 season due to a forearm strain. He also missed a start with a blister in 2013, but that’s no big deal.

It’s important to point out Wood was completely healthy last season. He returned from the forearm strain and had no problems in 2015. It’s still something of a red flag though, especially for a guy with Tommy John surgery in his history and that wild delivery. It’s possible Wood simply isn’t built to hold up under a starter’s workload.

Contract Status

Unfortunately for Wood, he fell about a week shy of qualifying for Super Two status this offseason. He has two years and 123 days of service time (2.123) while the Super Two cutoff was roughly 2.130. Sucks. That’ll cost him a couple million bucks. Wood has four years of team control remaining, one as a pre-arbitration player and then three of arbitration-eligibility.

From what I can tell, Wood has at least one and possibly all three minor league options remaining. He was sent down in 2013 and 2014 but only briefly. It doesn’t appear he was down long enough (20 days) to burn an option. Still though, you don’t want Wood to use his options at this point of his career. Any team that trades for Wood wants him to contribute to their MLB team. Having to send him to Triple-A means something went wrong.

What Would It Take?

Wood himself was traded at the deadline last year, but it was as part of a massive 13-player, three-team trade. We can’t gauge his trade value from that. Pitchers traded in recent years with four seasons of control remaining include …

  • Shelby Miller: Traded with Jordan Walden for one year of Jason Heyward and a prospect.
  • Jake Arrieta: Traded with Pedro Strop for rental Scott Feldman and a prospect.
  • Gio Gonzalez: Traded for four prospects, most notably Tommy Milone and Derek Norris.

… which gives us an interesting cross section of pitchers. Gonzalez was about to get expensive as a Super Two and the Athletics traded him for prospects. Arrieta was a busted former top prospect the Orioles flipped for Feldman to help their 2013 postseason drive. The Cardinals dealt Miller in a win-now move that brought them an impact player, albeit one year of one.

Which one of those applies most to Wood? It’s Miller, right? The Dodgers are a win-now team and they’ve not going to move Wood in what amounts to a salary dump like the A’s did with Gonzalez, and Wood’s not broken like Arrieta. (Arrieta was really, really bad in Baltimore.) That said, Miller was generally held in much higher regard then Wood. Miller was a former top prospect with high-end stuff. Wood’s mostly a deception guy with some believers and also some detractors.

Wrapping Up

I don’t really understand how president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is running the Dodgers. He’s obsessing with team control like he did with the Rays but is also sprinkling in some win-now moves, like Kazmir and Maeda. (And the failed Aroldis Chapman trade.) What would he want for Wood? Big league pieces or prospects? They traded Dee Gordon for prospects, remember. That was weird.

(Stephen Dunn/Getty)
(Stephen Dunn/Getty)

Anyway, the framework of an Andrew Miller for Alex Wood trade exists, but a straight one for one swap makes no sense for the Yankees. Zero. Three years of an elite reliever for four years of a good starter with a vanishing fastball doesn’t make sense for New York. Wood would have to be part of a three or four player package, and the second piece would have to be pretty significant. Right? I’m not being crazy here. Miller for Wood makes the Yankees worse. They need quite a bit more.

The Dodgers have too many outfielders — they’re still trying to unload Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford — so Brett Gardner doesn’t really fit here. One year of Chapman for Wood would be kinda interesting, but Los Angeles backed away from Chapman after the domestic violence case came to light, so I doubt they’re interested. I suppose the Dodgers could focus on a prospect package for Wood. I dunno.

The Yankees have been looking for a young controllable starter all offseason and Wood fits the bill, though he is not without his flaws. His velocity has been fading, his performance suffered last season, and he pairs an ugly delivery with a history of elbow problems. There’s a decent chance Wood will be relegated to the bullpen full-time at some point during his four remaining years of team control if his velocity doesn’t bounce back.

That said, Wood is a three-pitch lefty who has a history of limiting bats and getting grounders. That’s not nothing. There are always reasons to not trade for a guy. Those are some reasons to trade for him. Whether the Yankees and Dodgers can find common ground is another matter. As far as I’m concerned, the Miller for Wood framework only makes sense if the Yankees are getting at least one other significant piece.

Heyman: Yankees asked Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. in Andrew Miller trade talks

(Rich Gagnon/Getty)
(Rich Gagnon/Getty)

As part of their efforts to land a young controllable starting pitcher, the Yankees asked the Astros for right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. in trade talks involving Andrew Miller earlier this offseason, reports Jon Heyman. Houston shot that down entirely and instead traded other players to the Phillies for Ken Giles a few weeks later.

McCullers, 22, had a 3.22 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 22 starts and 125.2 innings for the Astros last season, his MLB debut. His father Lance Sr. played for the Yankees from 1989-90. Lance Jr. had a very good strikeout rate (24.8%) due in part to all the curveballs he throws (35.8%). He does he lacks a reliable changeup though. McCullers is very promising but is also a work in progress.

During the Winter Meetings it was reported the Yankees sought righty Vincent Velasquez from the Astros in a Miller trade. Seems like the Yankees asked for McCullers first because hey, why not? When the Astros said no, they moved on to Velasquez. The 23-year-old Velasquez was included in the Giles trade a few weeks ago, as was former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel, Houston’s other notable young hurler.

For what it’s worth, Jeff Passan recently reported the Yankees were “very, very close” to trading Miller to the Astros a few weeks ago. Both Heyman and Nick Cafardo now say it’s unlikely Miller will be moved at all. As an elite reliever signed to an affordable contract, Miller has a ton of trade value, and there’s no reason for the Yankees to rush into a deal. I wouldn’t rule it out completely though.

Brian Cashman on adding a starter: “Our rotation is full”

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

For most of the offseason the Yankees have been looking for a starting pitcher, particularly a young starter they could control beyond 2017. Both Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner have been mentioned in trade talks for such a player, though no deal has taken place. A trade for a starter won’t happen either, if you take Brian Cashman‘s word for it.

“Our rotation is full,” said the GM to reporters during a conference call following last week’s Aroldis Chapman trade. The Yankees currently have six starters — Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova — for five spots, though that group of players comes with an awful lot of health concerns.

Cashman has a history of saying one thing and doing another — “Bubba Crosby is our center fielder,” is the most notable example — and that makes him no different than any other GM. The Yankees can’t come out and say they want a starter. It would potentially make them look desperate and give other teams leverage in trade talks.

That said, the rotation has been full since the end of last season and the Yankees have still been looking for a young starter this winter. I doubt they’ve stopped trying to acquire one. A young starter is a perpetual shopping list item. It’s like toilet paper. You’re always going to need it. The Yankees will never not be looking for young pitching.

The current rotation is risky but it doesn’t lack upside. The Yankees have enough bodies for the rotation — Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are other depth pieces — and can go into the season as is. They’re looking for a young starter mostly for a future, since everyone other than Severino can become a free agent at some point in the next two winters.

At the moment, my guess is no, the Yankees will not trade for any kind of significant rotation help the rest of the offseason. They might make a waiver claim or a minor league signing, something like that, but a significant free agent signing or trade probably won’t happen. The search for a young starter figures to continue into the regular season.