Archive for Hot Stove League
Heyman: Yanks have low offer out to Damon
Posted by: | CommentsMore than just a text message from Johnny Damon, we have news. It’s an honest-to-goodness rumor of a low offer from the Yanks to Johnny Damon. Jon Heyman tweets: “Damon has days to take low deal with Yankees. Assuming he says no, they’ll sign another OF soon from Johnson, Nady, Winn, Edmonds, Dye.” Of the non-Damon candidates, I’d take Reed Johnson and maybe Xavier Nady but no one else.
Heyman had more in a piece on SI.com. The Yankees, he says, have asked for a decision at the end of the weekend and are believed to be offering a base of “probably no more than $5 million guaranteed” for Damon. Otherwise, the team will look to spend $2 million for a left fielder. For what it’s worth, Brian Cashman has denied the existence of a deadline, but no one ever told him denial is just a river in Egypt. Meanwhile, Marc Carig has a — drumroll, please — text message from Damon who says he’ll “have a team in a week.” We’ll see if this goes anywhere.
A Damonic thaw on the horizon?
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Hot Stove League has worn on, Johnny Damon rumors have become the meme of the day. He sent a text message about playing for any team! He spoke to the Tigers! He didn’t speak to the Tigers! He had eggs for breakfast! If anything, the constant attention to Johnny Damon has highlighted the problems baseball coverage faces in a 24-hour online environment. At some point, the filter disappeared, and everything mundane Damon did became a major story.
Yet, as December became January, as Spring Training drew every closer, Damon remained both unemployed and seemingly off the Yankees’ radar. Brian Cashman had built his team as he saw fit, and if Johnny Damon didn’t feel he could meet the Yanks’ price, Cashman was prepared to move on. In fact, according to most reports, the Yanks hadn’t spoken to Damon for weeks.
Earlier this week, though, we saw the first signs of a thaw. Jerry Hairston, Jr. speculated that the Yanks weren’t moving on anyone else yet because they were waiting for Damon’s price to come down. While Cashman denied saying so directly, Hairston’s words rang if not true at least plausible. Even with shoddy defense, Damon can be a useful player in a power packed lineup for the Yanks.
And so, it is of little surprise that Damon and the Yanks are, according to Jon Heyman, back on speaking terms. Over at MLB Trade Rumors tonight, our very own Mike Axisa had the transcription from the MLB Network:
“He did meet or talk to the Yankees in the last couple of days. Still doesn’t look like a great chance of happening though believe it or not. They are talking, but the Yankees have these budgetary constraints. They’ve been telling other teams they have about $2 million to spend. I think for Damon they would probably go over that. I mean this is a guy who’s had 100 runs scored nine times and 24 home runs. Terrific player, but I would still say more likely Braves or Tigers, at this point.”
Who knows what that means? Heyman has long been a press mouthpiece, in a sense, for Scott Boras, and it’s quite reasonable to see Boras behind this quote. He’s trying to publicly engage the Yanks and push them to come up with the money for Damon. They could go a few million dollars over budget for Damon, and Boras wants that to happen soon.
Heyman mentions two possible destinations for Damon, but neither seem likely at this juncture. The Braves say they’re through spending. They’re not going to wipe out the cost savings from sending Javier Vazquez away by upping with Damon for few million. The Tigers too are believed to be at or near their budget limits. I wonder if Mariners, still in the hunt for a bat, could get involved, but so far, they’ve been quiet.
Right now, this rumor is still a low level one, but it’s one we’ve been expecting. If Damon is a Yankee come mid-February, no one will be that surprised. And if he’s not a Yankee, no one will be that surprised either.
Yankees contact Jim Edmonds
Posted by: | CommentsFunny how a simple phone call can garner so much attention.
As you probably heard by this point, the Yankees reportedly contacted Jim Edmonds, who said he wants to play in 2010. Apparently the Yankees have contacted him, and Edmonds, despite his stated desire to play in St. Louis, will consider playing in New York. “That’s a pretty nice situation over there,” he said.
We know the Yankees want to sign a complementary left fielder, so the Edmonds connection was inevitable. I can’t imagine, however, that they’re very serious suitors. The 39-year-old, 40 in July, hasn’t played since 2008, and while he posted good numbers in limited duty for the Cubs, there’s no certainty that he can continue to produce at that level in 2010, especially with a move back to the AL.
For a few years Edmonds was among the best center fielders in baseball, perhaps the best in 2003, when he posted a 1.002 OPS and finished 17 spots behind Juan Pierre in the MVP race, and 2004, when he posted a 1.061 OPS. Those days, however, are far behind him, as he saw a decline in each of the three following years, ending his contract in St. Louis with a .252/.325/.403 campaign. He got off to a rough start in San Diego, too, OPSing .498 before they released him. Again, he played better once in Chicago, but that was over just 298 PA.
Edmonds presents a few problems. First, his defense appears on the decline. UZR typically rated him on the positive side from its inception in 2002 through 2006, but in 2007 he ran into the negatives, and then fell far into the negatives in 2008. He played center field those years, so perhaps a move to left would help cover up his diminished range. But can the Yankees expect even that, given his age and his year away from the game?
His platoon splits present an even bigger problem. During his prime he hit lefties just fine, showing even splits during his peak years of 2003 and 2004. But since 2006 he’s been downright terrible against lefties. This includes a .479 OPS in 2006, .631 in 2007, and .441 in 2008. Those all come in limited samples, and rightfully so. With an already lefty-heavy team, it doesn’t make sense to add yet another lefty who has trouble hitting lefties. The Yanks got into trouble with that in the mid-00s.
As I mentioned in the guide to off-season sanity, we hear plenty of noise and disinformation at this time of year. Maybe the Yankees did contact Edmonds about a possible minor-league deal. Other than that no-risk move, however, I don’t see a reason why the Yankees would pursue him. Maybe they’re just using him as leverage against Damon.
What, exactly, does Johnny Damon think he’ll get?
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Fans who want to see Johnny Damon back in pinstripes got a bit of good news last night. In a radio interview, new Padre Jerry Hairston Jr. said that the Yankees didn’t make him an offer because they’re “waiting on Damon’s price to come down.” Brian Cashman quickly refuted the report, but that’s to be expected. After hearing the interview a number of reporters surely placed phone calls, and Cashman is under no obligation to divulge the team’s strategies. While Cashman went into deny mode, I don’t think Hairston’s comment was inaccurate.
As we’ve heard ever since the Javy Vazquez trade, the Yankees plan to wait out the market and find the best value in another outfielder. As one Yankee official said in late December, “We’ll sign an outfielder between now and spring training.” The market for the Yankees’ target players hasn’t moved much since then, hence the lull in activity. Had teams started to make serious plays for guys like Reed Johnson and Xavier Nady, perhaps the Yankees would have made a move by now. But as the market lies dormant, so should the Yankees.
The advantage of waiting in this situation is that they can continue to monitor their presumed top target, Johnny Damon. He’s the best player left on the market, and surely the Yankees would rather bring him back than sign one of the other remaining outfielders. But, as Hairston’s quote suggests, Damon is still asking too much. My question to that: what, exactly, does Johnny think he can get in this market? And, furthermore, what team will pay it?
The teams interested in Damon’s services have dwindled in the past month. The Giants signed Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff, and Bengie Molina, and are likely tapped out. The Braves might be interested, but they might not, depending on who you ask. The Tigers have denied interest, and with good cause. They already have DHs at their corner outfield spots — Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen — and so with Damon would have three corner outfielders who play poor defense, surrounding a rookie center fielder. The Mariners have $10 million, but also have two set-in-stone outfielders, plus Milton Bradley and Ken Griffey, Jr.
As Dave Pinto noted yesterday, “a team with a hole in leftfield or designated hitter could do a lot worse than offering Damon $7 to 9 million for a year of his services.” True, they could do worse than Damon as a player, but at that price he’s not nearly as appealing. With so few teams actively interested in his services, $7 to $9 million, in a pure market environment, appears too steep. But, since Damon doesn’t want to take a pay cut, he’ll continue to wait. It might be a while before he gets anything close to what he thinks he’s worth.
So where does that leave Damon? Tyler Kepner wrote an excellent article comparing Damon to two players who found themselves in similar situations: Kenny Lofton and Kenny Rogers. Funny, too, because they’re both former, reviled Yankees. Lofton abruptly retired after the 2007 season when he didn’t receive an offer he deemed worthy. Rogers turned down a two-year, $10 million offer from the Rangers, eventually signing on for $2 million with the Twins after another former Yankee, Eric Milton, got hurt.
Reports circulated yesterday that Damon was contemplating retirement, but that’s bull. In fact, there was no direct quote attributed to it, never mind the dubious source, a “friend” of Damon. Plus, as Kepner notes, Damon himself said that he wants to play. So that leaves him with Rogers’s situation, waiting until something pops up in spring training. That might cause a team to overpay a bit, but I doubt it would land him a multiyear contract. That ship, it appears, sailed when he turned down the Yankees’ two-year, $14 million offer.
As the last big-name free agent left on the market, Damon will garner much attention in the weeks between now and spring training. We’re bound to hear conflicting reports, and much of that will be pure noise. What we do know, however, is that the Yankees feel no urgency to act, and that puts them in a position to bring back Damon on their terms. Whether they will remains to be seen. But I do think that the more time passes, the better chance Damon re-signs with the Yanks.
Credit: AP Photo/Peter Morgan
Yanks bench not a worry heading into 2010
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As the off-season winds down and we eagerly approach the first glimpses of Spring Training, we have little left to discuss in terms of the Yankees’ roster. The primary players are already in place. Eight for-sure position players, four for-sure pitchers plus two youngsters for the final rotation spot, and a solid core of relievers. With Brett Gardner currently slated to start the season in left and Francisco Cervelli tapped as the backup catcher, the Yanks have just three spots to play with.
As we’ve learned over the past few years, and especially last year, the bench means very little to start the season. Last season the Yankees opened with a bench of Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, Ramiro Pena, and Jose Molina. While that would have sufficed all season, even with the Melky-Gardner swap, things quickly changed. The Yankees will not possess this kind of depth in 2010, but 2009 was an aberration in that regard. Few teams, if any, have a player like Nick Swisher on the bench.
With Jerry Hairston in San Diego playing alongside his brother and with Eric Hinske gunning for playing time in Atlanta, the bench will not resemble the one that closed the 2009 season. Which is fine, because the bench that closed the season — Hairston, Gardner, Hinske, and Molina — shared only one common player with the Opening Day bench. Like Molina last year, Cervelli could go wire to wire on the bench. Considering the options the Yankees have right now, that might not be true of any other player.
How will the Yankees construct their bench to start the season? To answer we must first see how the left field situation plays out. The team says they’re eyeing a right-handed outfielder to caddy for Brett Gardner, and we’ve spent plenty of time analyzing those options. They could still add Johnny Damon, which would move Gardner to fourth outfielder, but adding one of the many right-handed outfielders would produce the same effect. Whether Damon or otherwise, that’s one of three bench spots.
The infield won’t be such a big concern. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Robinson Cano don’t take many days off. Last season Cano missed just one game and Jeter missed nine. A-Rod’s preseason injury limited him to 124 games, but when healthy he’s in there nearly every day. Since the utility infielder will play a game a week or less, the position isn’t that important, and is probably the reason the Yankees did not even attempt to retain Jerry Hairston. Ramiro Pena appears the favorite, but Kevin Russo could get a shot — though his lack of experience at shortstop might hurt his case.
The final bench spot could go one of two ways. The most likely is Rule 5 selection Jamie Hoffman getting a shot. Since they can easily return him to Los Angeles if he doesn’t work out, the Yanks will likely give him a shot unless someone else makes an overly compelling case during the spring. The alternative is Juan Miranda for some lefty power off the bench, but since he has an option the Yankees can afford to try out Hoffman. They can always bring up Miranda later.
Unlike the 2009 version, the 2010 bench will not feature any players who can adequately substitute in case of injury. When Nady went down last year they had Swisher to step in, but that is not the case this season. That’s fine, though. Any team that has a starter-quality player sitting on the bench is lucky and then some. Hell, there are teams that can’t even field nine adequate starters, nevermind hiding someone on the bench. The 2009 Opening Day bench was a luxury that we should not get used to.
Still, we know the Yankees have the tools to reconfigure the bench on the fly. Their bevy of mid-level prospect can help them obtain the right players from teams no longer in the hunt. It’s exactly how they acquired Hairston and Hinske last year. But, before they go do that, they can afford to see how the in-house options work. Who knows, maybe they won’t even need to swing a trade this year. If they do, they’ll certainly have options come mid-season.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Gardner taking aim at key improvements
Posted by: | CommentsAt every minor league level, Brett Gardner has shown improvements in his approach to the game, and now that the left field job is his to lose, he’ll have to again adapt his style. After a good, but not great, 2009 that saw Gardner hit .270/.345/.379 as a part-time player, Yankee fans know what to expect. He’s fast, but so far, he hasn’t gotten on base quite often enough to capitalize on his speed. He’s a contact hitter, but he has shown a tendency to be a bit too selective at the plate. Over the weekend, Chad Jennings talked with Gardner about his off-season approach, and what Brett said should be encouraging. He’s already working on improving his bunting, and he wants to be more aggressive by putting more balls in play this year. It might just be the words of a baseball player gearing up for Spring Training, but those areas are exactly the ones upon which Gardner should be focusing.
Timing the key element in the Austin Jackson trade
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In Curtis Granderson, the Yankees acquired a young, talented center fielder with a track record of major league success. For him they traded Austin Jackson, a young, talented center fielder who has yet to record a major league at bat. The Yankees, in their attempts to contend now and contend in the future, thought the exchange a worthy one, though they didn’t particularly like trading Jackson. Drafting him in the eighth round of the 2005 draft, the Yankees saw plenty of potential in the former two-sport star. Now it’s the Tigers who will see how he ultimately develops.
Granderson’s age, talent, and experience made him an attractive target for the Yankees. Since Jackson’s ceiling approaches what Granderson has become, the trade made sense. Again, the Yankees need to balance winning now and winning later, and acquiring a 29-year-old center fielder who has OPS’d above .850 twice in his career fits that bill. They could have remained patient with Jackson, hoping he’d catch on as the club’s center fielder in 2010, but there were enough concerns with his game to make them think that might be an unrealistic expectation.
Lynn Henning of The Detroit News spoke to Yankees’ AAA hitting coach Butch Wynegar, who spent all season working with Jackson. While Wynegar heaped praise on the center fielder, he also noted that Jackson might not be ready for the bigs in 2010.
“He still is raw, still has a lot to learn, but he’s an intelligent kid and a good athlete — and he wants to learn,” Wynegar said. “I basically told the Yankees at the end of the year, if they were thinking about him being their center fielder this coming year (2010), I didn’t know if he was ready yet.”
The concern with Jackson, Henning notes, lies in his swing. Just after the trade, Steve Carter of Project Prospect laid out the concerns, noting issues with Jackson’s stride and shoulders. These contribute to his lack of power and his struggles with off-speed pitches. But both Wynegar and Tigers’ hitting coach Lloyd McClendon think Jackson can adapt his swing and find success at the major league level. He might struggle if the Tigers move forward with plans to make him the every day center fielder, but eventually most parties think he’ll become a solid major league regular.
For the Yankees, the trade ultimately came down to timing. It sounds like they wanted to remain patient with Jackson, giving him another year in AAA, at least to start, to continue developing his game. But with a vacant outfield spot and nothing that attracted the Yankees on the free agent market, they explored trades. If Johnny Damon were under contract for one more year, Jackson would likely remain in the Yankees system. Even without Damon, perhaps the Yankees would even have pursued a trade for a corner outfielder if Wynegar and others thought Jackson would be ready for action in 2010.
The mandate to win now and win in the future means making tough decisions on promising young players. Other organizations might have attempted a different tactic to remain competitive in 2010 while allowing Jackson more time to develop. But when offered a 29-year-old All-Star center fielder, the Yankees felt they had to pounce. Jackson was an unfortunate casualty.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Keith Srakocic
Quick updates: Hairston, Damon, Nady
Posted by: | CommentsBuster Olney gives us two interesting nuggets today. First off, he says the Yankees never made an offer to Jerry Hairston Jr., despite their reported interest in bringing the jack-of-all-trades back. Jerry Jr. got his ring last year, so he headed to San Diego over the weekend for a little extra cash and the chance to play with his brother. Can you blame him?
Olney also mentions that the Yanks have had no recent contact with Johnny Damon. Ever since the Nick Johnson signing became official, there’s been basically zero movement on the Damon front. It’s apparent the team has no interest in bringing him back unless it’s on their terms and their terms only. Will Scott Boras crack? I say no.
And finally, Boras indicated that Xavier Nady is on schedule to be ready for Spring Training. “The doctors have his throwing program ahead of schedule,” said the superagent, however we’ve already heard that he’s out of the Yanks’ price range. Given the concern about a second Tommy John surgery, I don’t see why the Yanks should risk a roster spot and anything more than the league minimum on a proven league average commodity with basically zero upside.
Rosenthal: Hairston close to deal with Pads
Posted by: | CommentsOn July 31, Brian Cashman sent Chase Weems to the Reds in exchange for Jerry Hairston, Jr., and for three months, Hairston got the job done. He served as a versatile utility player with decent speed and hit .237/.352/.382 over 93 plate appearances. He scored the winning run in Game 2 of the ALCS and filled in during the World Series when both Melky Cabrera and Johnny Damon went down with leg injuries. Today, Ken Rosenthal reports that the San Diego Padres and Hairston are “closing in on [a] deal.” Hairston will be joining his brother Scott who arrived in San Diego yesterday, and the Yanks will be out a potential bench player.
Yes, Eric Byrnes is a left field option
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Just last night I used this space to make a case for the Yankees potentially acquiring Conor Jackson, and now I’m going to write about another Diamondbacks’ outfielder, Eric Byrnes. Arizona designated the fan favorite for assignment yesterday, signaling the end of one of the most ill-advised contract extensions in recent memory. The deal was so absurd at the time it was signed that it almost had to be ordered from ownership, who was probably trying to use Byrnes’ popularity to keep fans around following the team’s recent run of futility.
Let’s make one thing perfectly clear right now. I am in no way advocating a trade for Byrnes, nor am I saying the Yankees should claim him on waivers as part of the DFA process. There is one, just one scenario in which the Yankees should look at Byrnes, and that’s if the D-Backs’ are unable to trade him within the ten day window, he clears waivers, and they release him. That’s the only way, period. In that case, Arizona would be on the hook for Byrnes’ entire $11M salary in 2010, less the pro-rated portion of the Major League minimum, which is what whatever team signs him would have to pay. That’s it, that’s the only way the Yankees should even think about bringing Byrnes aboard.
So why should the Yanks even have interest in Byrnes in the first place? Well because they’re looking for a righty hitting outfielder for under $2M, and Byrnes fits both criteria. He’s been limited to just 482 plate appearances over the last two seasons because of hamstring issues and a broken hand suffered on a hit by pitch, during which time he hit just .218-.271-.382. Certainly it’s nothing to get excited about, and any team that picks him up would be banking on Byrnes returning to his pre-2008 levels, when he was moderately productive.
Prior to the injuries and extension, Byrnes was a .268-.330-.452 hitter in his five full seasons, good for a perfectly average OPS+ of 100. However, he excels at hitting lefties, posting a .284-.354-.511 batting line against them during his career, and the small sample size data from 2008 and 2009 actually drags those numbers down a bit. Byrnes isn’t going to walk a ton (236 unintentional walks in 3,170 career plate appearances) but he won’t strikeout a ton either (16.7% of his plate appearances have ended with strike three), and in general we know what he is. He’s at best a league average offensive performer, perhaps less now as the hand injury and hammy trouble has presumably slowed him down.
Defensively, Byrnes has been superb in left and center fields throughout his career, posting +5.6 and +11.1 UZR/150’s, respectively. Jeff Zimmerman’s age-adjusted UZR projections have him at +5 and +4 UZR in those spots next year, though the Fan’s Scouting Report isn’t as kind. You probably already know that Byrnes is a complete nut job, and will run into pretty much anything on the field to make a play. For the sake of argument, let’s assume he’s now slightly below average defensively in left following the leg issues.
On the bases, Byrnes been an extremely successful basestealer, swiping 128 bags in 151 attempts (84.8% success rate, which is amazing). Baseball Prospectus’ stats say he’s been worth just about 4.5 runs on the bases over the last four years in non-SB baserunning situations, which is very good. Again, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Byrnes is just a league average baserunner now because of the injuries, however remember that running from bag-to-bag has more to with instincts that just raw speed.
So, after all that, we’re saying that Byrnes is a bit below average both offensively and defensively, and just about average on the bases. That’s basically a one win player, which has a lot of value at the league minimum. If Byrnes were to rebound somewhat, he might even be a bit of steal since the D-Backs are footing the bill. He’d be a fan favorite, and give the Yanks a bit of insurance in case Brett Gardner and/or Jamie Hoffmann poop the bed in Spring Training. And the best part of all is that there’s zero strings attached. The Yanks could sign Byrnes, give him a nice long look in camp, and if they don’t like what they see, they can cut him loose with zero consequences. There’s no risk at all, and frankly I don’t see why anyone would be against bringing Byrnes about under those circumstances.
Photo Credit: Chris Park, AP
