Archive for Irresponsible Rumormongering
Deadline dealing: D-backs listening on Haren
Posted by: | CommentsLuis Gonazlez’s RBI single that fell just to the edge of the outfield where Derek Jeter could have caught it had the infield not been in seems like just yesterday to Yankee fans. To the Diamondbacks, though, that moment of glory is long gone. This year’s team, currently 37-59, miles away from first place, is en route to a second consecutive last place finish, and with the trade deadline near, Arizona is holding a very attractive piece in pitcher Dan Haren.
To the uninitiated, Haren might not seem like much. His 7-8 record with a 4.60 ERA is nothing to write about, but those numbers, as they so often don’t, can’t capture the full story. Outside of Roy Oswalt, Haren is the best pitcher still available at the deadline this year. In 141 innings, he has struck out 141 hitters, best in the NL, and he’s walking just under two per nine innings pitched. The home runs have been his bugaboo this year, but even while surrendering 23 longballs, his FIP is still a nifty 3.84 and his xFIP 3.39.
And so, inevitably, many teams are interested in Dan Haren, and Buster Olney just happened to hear this: The Yankees are one of them. Even though Andy Pettitte will probably be out only for a few weeks, targeting Haren makes perfect sense. The right-hander would be a fit for any contender, and the Yankees know that pitching is what will separate the AL champion from the rest of the very competitive pack. The club also realizes that Phil Hughes is facing an innings limit. Haren would give them a plus arm as the innings mount.
Haren, though, will not come cheap. He’s signed through 2012 with a $15.5 million club option for 2013, and he’s set to make only $12.75 million in both 2011 and 2012. In a market where A.J. Burnett and John Lackey can both make upwards of $82 million for five years, Haren’s deal is a downright steal. The Yankees know that; the Diamondbacks know that; any team kicking the tires on Haren knows that.
Once upon a time, Arizona had let it be known that they wanted two Major League pitchers in exchange for Haren, and potential partners let it be know that the D-backs were off their collective rockers. Now, though, the price has come down, but the team still wants an A-plus package. “Ideally what we would ask for is major-league ready pitching, be it starters and/or bullpen, and prospects,” club CEO Derrick Hall said yesterday. “The volume doesn’t matter. It doesn’t need to be four or five or six guys. It’s really about the quality.”
The Yankees match up, and as Jayson Stark said yesterday, the club is quietly letting other teams know they want to make some deals. Currently, says Stark (second item), the Yankees are “actively talking” with Arizona. If the deal “just involves prospects, they appear poised to jump into those talks aggressively.” In fantasyland, the Yankees could try to offer a Hector Noesi, a Romulo Sanchez or an Ivan Nova for Haren, but the realistic trade proposal probably starts with Joba Chamberlain.
Despite nearing arbitration, Joba is still cost-controlled, young and a viable Major League pitcher. He could be a starter; he could be a bullpen guy; he could be both. Depending on the prospects — and it always depends upon the prospects — the Yanks should be willing in a heartbeat to flip Joba in a Haren trade. Maybe that too has an element of fantasy in it, but it’s a fair starting point for both sides.
Any trade for Haren would have a cascade effect on the Yanks’ plans and would probably shift their off-season targets from another pitcher to a bat. With Haren on board, Cliff Lee wouldn’t be as imperative of a pick-up for the club, and it’s debatable if the Yanks would have room for him in their budget. If Andy Pettitte were to return for 2011, a decision that many beat writers have said seems to be an inevitable, the rotation would effectively be full. But I’m getting ahead of the situation a bit.
Today, at least four teams, including the Tigers, Phillies and Cardinals, are very interested in Haren. If the Yankees are serious, they have the pieces to get the deal done, and with the trade deadline eight days away, the speculation will wrong strong until then. Buckle up; it’s time for that wild ride that is late July.
AL East trade winds starting to blow
Posted by: | CommentsIf you went to bed at a reasonable hour last night, you might have missed the semi-late breaking rumor that had the Phillies in talks with the Astros to acquire Roy Oswalt. Why does this matter to the Yankees? Because a sister move would involve a trade of Jayson Werth (for payroll reasons, apparently), and the word on the street has the Rays as the front runners to land him. Philadelphia would then call up top prospect Domonic Brown in an effort to field an all lefthanded lineup.
As far as we know, the deals are not close, but Tampa certainly has the pieces to get a Werth deal done. Given their respective track records, Andrew Friedman will probably take Ruben Amaro to the cleaners if the trade does in fact happen. Tampa already has a good offense (.337 wOBA, sixth best in baseball) and a great defense (+22.7 UZR, third best), and adding a player of Werth’s caliber will only make them better. Given the Yanks’ current designated hitter situation, I can’t help but hope that Brian Cashman swoops in ninja-style and steals Werth away from Tampa.
A few fish on the Yanks’s radar
Posted by: | CommentsThe July 31 non-waiver trade deadline just gained some urgency for the Yanks. With Andy Pettitte gone for anywhere from two to five weeks, the Yanks could use some help in the rotation. That’s in addition to the help they already could have used on the bench and in the bullpen. The latter two are common needs for contenders at the deadline, but the former might present something of a problem. There just isn’t much good starting pitching left on the market. But could the Yanks turn to one team to fill all of their needs?
During the past few weeks we’ve seen the Yankees connected to a number of the reportedly available Florida Marlins. Earlier in the month we learned that the Yankees were in attendance to watch Ricky Nolasco pitch against Dan Haren. The Yanks, of course, could have been there for Haren, or they might have been there to scout other Marlins targets. Later in the month we saw the Yanks connected to Cody Ross and Leo Nunez, and just recently we saw that they had interest in Wes Helms. Clearly the Yanks won’t acquire all four of these players, but they certainly could turn to the Marlins for a couple of them.
While Brian Cashman has stated his preference for in-house options to replace the injured Pettitte, that might not be a realistic option. Mike went over the Pettitte replacement options earlier, and none of the in-house options seems all that attractive. Moving outside the organization, however, would bring the Yankees many benefits. First, it would give them an established starter to replace Pettitte temporarily, allowing the Yanks to play it conservative with the 38-year-old. Then, when Pettitte does return, the Yankees can use the extra starter to help more easily control Phil Hughes‘s innings. As long as they’re not committing big dollars for multiple years, a la Roy Oswalt, acquiring a pitcher will work in their favor.
Nolasco, 27, could fill that role in the rotation. For the second straight year he’s sporting a poor ERA, but also for the second straight year his component stats suggest that he’s actually a bit better than that. He has a career 3.98 FIP, including a 3.77 mark in 2008 and 3.35 last year. His xFIP also sits below 4.00 at 3.85 for his career. In the last three years that has been 3.75, 3.28, and finally 3.73 this year. His current strikeout rate, 7.91 per nine, matches his career total. We also know he’s capable of more, as he struck out 9.49 per nine last year.
Home runs have been Nolasco’s most concerning problem this year. He has allowed 20 in 116 IP, a high number for sure but one that might come down if he leaves Miami. Of those 20, 11 have come at home. That might not seem like a huge difference, but he has also pitched 13.1 fewer innings at home than on the road. In other words, a move away from whatever they’re calling the Marlins’ ballpark right now could be to his benefit.
Starting pitching, according to Cashman, is a luxury at this point. Even with Pettitte’s injury he’s focusing on bench and bullpen. He might find solutions to both issues also on the Marlins. Leo Nunez has pitched very well this year, boasting a career-high strikeout rate to go with a very low walk rate and a nearly nonexistent home run rate. That last stat might seem ripe for regression, but as his 2.83 xFIP shows, that’s not the case. The reason: he’s posting a career high groundball rate, probably because he’s turning to the changeup more often than in the past. All of these attributes would make him not only an excellent candidate for the pen, but also one for Mariano’s primary setup man.
Cody Ross and Wes Helms would present options for the bench, though Ross could also serve as a platoon partner for Curtis Granderson should the Yankees decide to take that road later in the season. He has a .379 wOBA against lefties this season and a .398 mark for his career. This season hasn’t been that great from a power perspective, as he’s hitting the ball on the ground more often. Even so he’s a decent option for the Yanks against left-handed pitching. Helms, 34, can man the infield corners and little else. I’m not sure how interested the Yanks are in him; if you’ll remember back to the 2006-2007 off-season the Yanks actually had the highest bid for Helms, then a free agent. He ended up taking less from the Phillies, and has been decidedly mediocre ever since.
Florida currently sits 9.5 games out of first in the NL East and 6 games out of the NL Wild Card, so they could become aggressive sellers in the coming weeks. A notoriously cheap team, the Marlins have spent more money this year than they have since 2005, which could affect their desire to unload players. But considering all of these players will be under control next year (Nolasco and Nunez have two more years of arbitration), the team might not be so inclined to move them. Maybe they’ll provide a multi-player discount for taking the current and future salaries off the books, but I doubt it would be anything significant. The Marlins have proven to be a stingy bunch.
Acquiring any of these Marlins players would help the team this year, and if the Yanks can get more than one of them all the better. The question, as always, comes with the price. The Yanks don’t appear willing to include Jesus Montero in any future deal, nor should they. Austin Romine is probably off-limits, too. That doesn’t leave the team with a ton to trade, especially if it involves multiple players. Considering that the marlins come as stingy dealers, I doubt these two teams match up. It’s a shame, because a few of those players would fit right in (also because Joe Girardi managed a few of them in Florida). But with the presumed costs involved I wouldn’t count on anything imminent.
Curry: Yanks not getting Lee
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate by Ben (4:20 p.m.): According to Jack Curry of the YES Network, the Yankees will not be getting Cliff Lee. Despite earlier rumors to the contrary, talks hit a snag this afternoon over the identity of a few prospects involved in the trade, and the Texas Rangers have jumped back in. “Sometimes, these things just don’t get done,” he said.
Sweeny Murti reports that the Yanks thought they had a deal. The team was prepared to deal Jesus Montero, David Adams and Zack McAllister for Lee, but Seattle wanted to shop the lefty ace to other teams as well. If the Yanks are out of the running, I can’t imagine GM Brian Cashman is pleased with this turn of events. Good luck to Jack Zduriencik in his search for a better prospect than Jesus Montero. If the Rangers are willing to part with Justin Smoak, so be it.
To recap the afternoon: A short while ago, we heard via Joel Sherman, the Mariners appear to be backing away from the reportedly imminent Cliff Lee trade, and that the Yankees are no longer in the running for the southpaw. Seattle apparently had concerns about David Adams’ injured ankle while another club jumped into the bidding. Buster Olney says they have concerns about the “identity” of the second player, and it seemed as if the deal would survive without Adams.
A short while later, Olney, who seems to be co-owning this story with Sherman right now, had an update: The Yanks wanted to “strike aggressively, strike quickly, and get a resolution to this,” but the Mariners appear to be shopping for alternatives. The Rangers, hamstrung a bit by their financial troubles, says Sherman, are still “working hard” to land Lee.
We then learned that Bob Kalpisch’s Yankee sources believe the Lee-for-Montero deal to be dead. Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand’s sources said the Yanks are still in it but that no deal is done yet. Either way, it sounds as though the Yanks won’t have to face Lee tonight.
Yankees interested in Ty Wigginton
Posted by: | CommentsVia MLBTR, the Yankees have expressed interest in trading for Ty Wigginton to serve as a reserve. I wrote all about the possibility of acquiring Wigginton a little over a week ago, so I suggest going there for a comprehensive breakdown. What’s worth repeating is that the Orioles are looking for a young shortstop in return for the free-agent-to-be, and the Yanks have a trio in Ramiro Pena, Eduardo Nunez, and Reegie Corona. They clearly need to upgrade the bench, and if nothing else, Wigginton is an (expensive) upgrade over Pena.
Mariners have been scouting Yanks’ farm system
Posted by: | CommentsThis one should come as no surprise, but the Mariners have scouted the Yankees’ farm system in advance of a potential Cliff Lee trade. The Yanks have, in turn, scouting Lee, but it’s nothing more than routine coverage of a pitcher they intend to pursue as a free agent. Yesterday we heard that the Bombers just weren’t focusing on the lefty right now given the strength of the team’s starting five, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be prepared and cover all their bases. The Indians received four prospects when they dealt CC Sabathia two years ago, so we have to assume that’s the blueprint for any Lee trade.
Trade rumors start early for the Yanks
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Photo credit: Elaine Thompson/AP
We’re still 51 days away from the July 31 trade deadline, but that won’t stop the rumors from flowing. As we’ve grown used to during the past decade or so, the Yankees have already been connected to the top names on the trade market. Even in May, a time when almost no notable trades occur, reporters connected the Yankees to Roy Oswalt. Now that we’re past the draft, the trade deadline is the next big milestone. That means we’re about to see plenty of weak rumors.
Today George King of the Post provides Lesson No. 1: If the only source behind a rumor is an anonymous person “familiar with” a team’s thought process, it’ probably best to discard it. In this case, King connects the Yankees to Cliff Lee. The consensus around the industry is that the Yankees will make a strong run at Lee this off-season. But to acquire him in July? That seems like a stretch, given what we’ve learned from the Cashman front office in years past.
But, before we even touch on Cashman’s M.O., let’s evaluate the rumor on the level that King reports it. The opening sentence states that “the Mariners believe the defending World Champions will be in the hunt when they shop stud lefty Cliff Lee.” This does not come from anyone within the Yankees’ organization. In fact, given the “person familiar with Seattle’s thought process” line from the next sentence implies that the source didn’t even come from within Seattle. So there doesn’t appear to be a reason for taking this rumor seriously.
Then we get to the question of why the Yankees would show interest. They already have a strong starting five. Whom would Lee replace in the rotation. The only candidate is Javy Vazquez, and he has shown marked improvement in his last few starts. The Yankees also owe him $12 million this year, and it’s doubtful they’ll find a taker. Even then, would they trade away Vazquez only to trade for Lee? That sounds doubtful, and I agree with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that the move would be convoluted.
Beyond that, we have the Cashman front office M.O. The Yankees have shown an unwillingness to trade prospects for rentals. The rumor has the Mariners interested in Eduardo Nunez and one of the Yankees’ catchers. Would they really trade Nunez and Romine for two months of Lee? King implies that the Yankees would want an extension window, but by all indications Lee wants to test the free agent market. With an already solid pitching staff, it seems wasteful to use valuable resources to acquire two months of a pitcher, when that same pitcher will be available to the highest bidder this off-season.
The Yankees don’t seem to need many, if any, major pieces at the deadline. King notes possible interest in Lance Berkman to fill in for Nick Johnson at DH, but those rumors are even further fetched than the Lee ones, at least right now. At this point the Yankees are not only waiting for word on Johnson, but they’re also using Jorge Posada as the primary DH. Posada will likely move behind the plate sometime next week, but he’ll still get plenty of reps at DH. If Johnson can indeed return this season, trading for Berkman would seem superfluous.
Chances are, if we see the Yankees make a deal it will be more along the lines of last year’s deadline. Jerry Hariston was their only addition then, and they could make a similar move this year. Perhaps that will be for an upgrade over Ramiro Pena. Perhaps that will be another bullpen arm. Whatever the case, I wouldn’t expect a big name to head into New York this summer. The Yankees have a solid foundation. All they need are complementary pieces.
Yanks have two kinds of players on their summer shopping list
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to Jon Heyman, the Yankees’ shopping list for the summer includes two kinds of a players: a relief pitcher, and a hitter to presumably replace the perpetually injured Nick Johnson. Yesterday we heard they were likely to look for a versatile outfielder, which I guess could help form some kind of four-headed outfielder/designated hitter monster. As for the bullpen … meh. I hate trading for relievers just because they’re so volatile. Why give up an asset for complete unpredictability?
Is it just me, or does it seem like a summer rumor season started a little early this year?
Stark: Yankees targeting ‘versatile outfield bats’
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankee brain trust has yet to meet and discuss their mid-summer shopping list, but Jayson Stark says that the team’s scouts have begun to target what he calls “versatile outfield bats.” Randy Winn is basically a zero on offense (.278 wOBA) and isn’t even being used as a late innings defensive replacement anymore, while Marcus Thames can hit (.424 OBA) but nothing else. He’s the anti-versatile outfielder. Stark throws out the name of David DeJesus, but that’s just him speculating.
Just looking at the list of players scheduled to become free agents after the season, I can see someone like Gabe Gross or the resurgent Austin Kearns making sense. Maybe add Ryan Church to the mix, get that Pirates-Yankees train rollin’ again.
Report: Yanks likely to trade Gaudin or Mitre
Posted by: | CommentsVia Joel Sherman, the Yankees are “almost certain” to trade either Chad Gaudin or Sergio Mitre before Opening Day given the team’s depth at the back of the rotation. He mentions that the Diamondbacks – who have Ian Kennedy penciled in as their number three starter at the moment – are looking for rotation help, but I’ll add the Mets and Dodgers to the mix as well. Both Gaudin and Mitre and out of options, so they would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors, which won’t happen. Trading them is clearly the way to go.
At a $2.95M salary for 2010, Gaudin makes more than three times as much as Mitre. He’ll also be a free agent after the season, while Mitre still has another season of arbitration eligibility coming to him. Mitre has been better this spring and is opening some eyes, but I’d look to deal him over Gaudin without thinking twice. There’s nothing in his track record to suggest he’s a better pitcher, while Gaudin has proven to be a league average AL pitcher (101 ERA+ in 463.2 IP in the AL) with a strikeout rate that has improved three straight years to the point of nearly one per inning. Neither player is going to fetch much in a trade, a Grade-C prospect at best, so I’d certainly keep the guy that would be more useful to the Yankees this season.




