Good mailbag this week, I think. Eleven questions for the holiday weekend. Send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. I’ll answer as many as I can stomach each week (I kid, I kid).

Steve asks: What’s your thoughts on Mike Minor as a 6th Starter/swingman type that Yanks may look for? And on top of that, if everyone stays healthy he’d be a weapon out of the bullpen too right?

Minor was excellent out of the bullpen with the Royals last year (2.55 ERA and 2.62 FIP) and serviceable as a starter with the Rangers this year (4.18 ERA and 4.43 FIP), though, to be fair, he much better in the second half (2.97 ERA and 4.18 FIP). Also, for what it’s worth, Minor is a big time spin rate guy, especially with his fastball (2,543 rpm in 2018), which could appeal to the Yankees. He’s owed $9.5M in each of the next two seasons and carries a $9.33M luxury tax hit. Given how good he was with Kansas City, I’d be tempted to use Minor as a short reliever again rather than as a swingman type. Put him in the rotation if you must due to injuries/poor performance, otherwise using him as a high-leverage reliever seems like the better way to go. I’m not sure what the Rangers would seek in return though I assume Minor’s available since they’re rebuilding. I do like the idea. There’s a chance he’ll be just as effective as the big name free agent relievers and do so at a more reasonable cost in salary/prospects.

Douglas asks: Any chance there’s a team out there with a decent 2B/SS prospect that is being blocked by a popular veteran that they might be willing to deal in exchange for Sonny Gray?

I looked into it as part of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Believe me, I looked. Essentially what you end up looking for is another team’s Tyler Wade. A talented player with no real path to MLB playing who doesn’t have much more to prove at Triple-A. I thought about Royals prospect Nicky Lopez, but he’s too good. The Cardinals have a few guys (Max Schrock, Edmund Sosa) but I’m not sure how realistic that is. Teams tend to keep their middle infield prospects because they are typically the most athletic players and thus best able to move to other positions, if necessary. That’s one reason why the Yankees chose Gleyber Torres over Eloy Jimenez in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Quality middle infielders are hard to find and I’m not sure a team would be willing to give up a good MLB ready middle infield prospect to get the current version of Sonny Gray.

Roy asks: Why has there seemingly been zero talk of the Yankees picking up Fiers?

Mike Fiers is a real bad fit for Yankee Stadium and the AL East. He has a fastball you can catch with your teeth (averaged 89.4 mph in 2018) and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (39.4% grounders in 2018) who’s allowed 90 homers in 494 innings the last four years (1.6 HR/9). His skill set plays in the National League or in Detroit or Oakland. When he played in that hitter friendly ballpark in Houston, the result was a 4.59 ERA (4.82 FIP) in 384.1 innings. There’s a reason the Athletics chose not to start Fiers in the AL Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium. He’s a bad fit for hitter friendly ballparks. As a swingman/last guy in the bullpen type, I guess Fiers would be okay. Seems to me he’ll end up with a starting job elsewhere though. Besides, I’m pretty sure Giancarlo Stanton would snap Fiers in half like a twig on the first day of Spring Training given their history.

Chris asks: If you were told that you could sign Machado or Harper but not both – to a similar contract – who would you pick? While we have more need in IF, I’d take Harper. I can’t see going into season with a Yankee team with virtually no left handed power.

Bryce Harper and it has nothing to do with the right-handed batter vs. left-handed batter thing. Manny Machado is obviously excellent and, with a player that good, handedness at the plate is a secondary concern. I’d take Harper because I think he’ll be the better player the next 5-7 years. That’s all there is to it. The roster construction will change a ton during that time — the Yankees need a lefty bat now but it was only two years ago that they seemed overloaded with lefties — so I wouldn’t obsess too much over current needs when signing a player like this. Harper (and Machado) is a 26-year-old star and guys like that are always worth acquiring. I think Harper will be the better player going forward so I’d take him. I would happily take Machado as a consolation prize.

Julian asks: Would you rather sign Machado this offseason or try to sign Arenado next offseason?

Machado this offseason, easily. For three reasons. One, I think he’s the better player. Arenado is obviously excellent himself but I do wonder what his numbers look like outside Coors Field full-time. Two, Machado is a year and a half younger. And three — and this is a big one — Machado helps you win in 2019. Arenado doesn’t. When you’re an extreme win now team like the Yankees, waiting a year to sign that other desirable free agent almost never makes sense. Put yourself in the best position to win this year because you never know how quickly a window can close. (Or if that other player will even be available next year.) Even if you think Arenado is slightly better than Machado, the difference isn’t large enough to justify waiting a year and forcing the 2019 Yankees to do more with less. Get Machado now. Don’t wait around for Arenado (or Anthony Rendon!).

Jeff asks: You’ve made your thoughts on Realmuto vs. Sanchez clear…and I agree. But with the Mets signing Ramos and maybe shrinking the realistic market for Realmuto, what about NYY acquiring Realmuto AND keeping Sanchez? Moving one of them to 1st base could potentially answer the 1B production question mark. Would love to hear your thought process on that idea.

I’m not a fan of that idea. J.T. Realmuto and Gary Sanchez are elite offensive talents at their position, but move them to first base and DH, they go from special to just another guy. Realmuto had a 126 wRC+ this past season. That would’ve ranked seventh among first basemen with at least 400 plate appearances and isn’t much better than C.J. Cron (122 wRC+). Realmuto and Sanchez are so valuable because they are catchers, a very hard to fill position. Move them to first base and you lose all that positional value. Also, it’s going to take a lot to acquire Realmuto. I don’t expect the Marlins to just give him away because the Mets (Wilson Ramos) and Nationals (Yan Gomes) found catchers elsewhere. The Yankees would have to give up a lot to get a guy when they already have a very good (and younger) player at the position, and then move one of them to a much less valuable position. Don’t like it at all.

Mark asks: Troy Tulowitzki. Can you explain the “pro-rated portion” means here? That would mean the whole season correct? Or does a team have to pay him two years worth because of his contract?

Just the current season. Sign Tulowitzki before Opening Day and you owe him the league minimum ($555,000 for 2019) in 2019. Sign him in the middle of the season and you only owe him the pro-rated portion for the rest of the season. So, say you sign him 86 days into the 186-day season. That means you owe him 100 days at the league minimum rate, or $298,387.10. It doesn’t matter that there are two years remaining on his contract. You sign him for just the one year, and, if you want, you can re-sign him at the pro-rated minimum again in 2020 because the Blue Jays are still paying him that year. Long story short, whenever someone with a guaranteed contract is released, any team can sign him and pay him the league minimum rate for the remainder of that season and continue doing so year after year until his original contract with the team that released him expires.

John asks: Does hiring Beltran as a special advisor (same agent as Machado) say anything about Cashman’s confidence in Boone? I would assume that it cant hurt in the meeting with Machado.

It can’t hurt, but I think the whole “they have the same agent” thing really gets overplayed. Not just with Machado and Carlos Beltran. With any two players who share an agent. As for Aaron Boone, no, hiring Beltran says nothing about the team’s confidence in Boone. Joel Sherman says the Yankees tried to add Beltran to the front office last year. This has been in the works a while. And besides, if the Yankees had concerns about Boone, why would they bring in another rookie manager as a potential replacement? Why is everyone assuming Beltran would be a better manager than Boone? (“He was a better player” is not a good answer.) Anyway, no, I don’t think the Beltran signing had to do with anything specifically, like Boone or Machado. It was about adding a knowledgeable and respected person to the front office, which is something every team tries to do all the time. The Yankees are fortunate they were able to land Beltran and that he didn’t go to the Astros or Mets or wherever.

Ian asks: Is there a fit for the Yankees and Brian Dozier, if Gleyber moves over to short whilst Sir Didi is injured? I am hearing no noise at all about Dozier on the free agent market yet, so presumably there’s no bidding war heating up? Or is the fact he’s another right-handed bat just leading to yet more imbalance?

Dozier has really fallen off the last year or two. He had that monster 42 home run season in 2016 but has gone from a 132 wRC+ and +6.2 WAR in 2016 to a 125 wRC+ and +5.0 WAR in 2017 to a 90 wRC+ and +0.8 WAR in 2018. His defensive numbers slipped too. Dozier is 31 and I don’t buy him as a true talent +1 WAR player now. There’s likely some rebound potential here. His walk (11.1%) and strikeout (20.4%) rates are solid and held steady this past season, and he still pulled the ball (49.9%) in the air (39.5% grounders) a ton, which is what he does. Dozier isn’t some finesse hitter who shortens up and strokes the ball the other way. He tries to yank everything to left field. (Check out his 2016-18 spray chart.) That said, his hard contact rate took a nosedive this year and he actually outperformed his expected wOBA (.304 wOBA vs. .288 xwOBA). Dozier’s worth a longer look outside a mailbag setting. There’s likely some bounceback potential but probably not so much that he can be a 120 wRC+ and +4 WAR player again. He strikes me as 2019’s version of 2014 Brian Roberts.

Hector asks: Would you be ok with Hal selling the naming rights to Yankee Stadium to Amazon for $50M if it meant that he would put that money back into payroll? Assuming he would not go over tax threshold otherwise.

Safeco Field is now T-Mobile Park, you know. The Mariners sold the ballpark naming rights to T-Mobile for $87.5M over 25 years. Doesn’t $3.5M per year for naming rights seem low? Seems low to me, but what do I know. Anyway, I’ve been assuming the name “Yankee Stadium” is too iconic for ownership to sell the naming rights. Then again, everyone has a price, and I reckon $50M a year would be hard to turn down. They could call it “Amazon Field at Yankee Stadium” or something like that. I’m not one to obsess about tradition. If they sell the naming rights to Yankee Stadium, who cares? It’s just a building name. A name change wouldn’t impact my life in any way. And if ownership puts that money into the roster, then it would be pretty cool. (Of course, the Yankees don’t need to sell the ballpark naming rights to pump another $50M into the roster, but I digress.)

Jesse asks: An earlier question asked about having one 80-grade tool to assign one current Yankee. This made me wonder: What if you had one of each 80-grade tool to distribute among the current Yankee roster (hit / power / run / field / arm / fastball of your choice / breaking ball of your choice / changeup / control)? How would you distribute them?

Fun question! Not necessarily an easy one either. An 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale is top of the line. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 power. Aroldis Chapman still has an 80 fastball even after losing some velocity this past season. Billy Hamilton is an 80 runner. Let’s start with the position players:

• 80 hit: Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton’s a much better hitter than he gets credit for, but give him an 80 hit tool and he’d hit like .320 with 65 homers on the regular.
• 80 power: Aaron Hicks. He already has power (27 homers this year) but give him 80 power and we’re talking 40+ homers annually. I thought about Tyler Wade but nah.
• 80 run: Gleyber Torres. Gleyber is a sneaky bad baserunner. Some more speed would help.
• 80 field: Miguel Andujar. Easy call. Andujar with a golden glove would be Adrian Beltre-ish.
• 80 arm: Austin Romine. Almost by default. Romine gets the nod over Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury because he seems more likely to stick around beyond 2019 than those two.

Weirdly, the 80 power decision was the toughest because the Yankees already have so much power. Stanton and Aaron Judge are legitimate 80 power guys. Would anyone be surprised if Sanchez, Torres, Hicks, and Andujar each hit 30 homers next year? I sure wouldn’t. Ronald Torreyes would’ve been a fun answer here had he not been traded away. Anyway, let’s get to the pitchers.

• 80 fastball: Masahiro Tanaka. Imagine him pumping 97+ heaters with those secondary pitches?
• 80 breaking ball: Chad Green. As easy a call as giving Andujar an 80 glove.
• 80 changeup: Luis Severino. Severino has a good changeup he doesn’t use often enough. Give him an 80 changeup and he’d be untouchable, assuming he actually throws it.
• 80 control: Dellin Betances. Betances with consistent strike-throwing ability might be the second best reliever ever. For real.

The 80 pitching tools were pretty straightforward, I thought. Giving Severino the 80 changeup happened by default, more or less. You want to give that elite third pitch to a starter, not a reliever, but CC Sabathia and James Paxton already have pretty good changeups, Tanaka throws everything, and while J.A. Happ could use something to play off his fastball, Severino is 15 years younger. He’ll be around much longer, so give him the 80 changeup.

There are ten questions in the first post-Winter Meetings mailbag of the offseason. Make sure you send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Several asked: What about Troy Tulowitzki?

I figured these were coming. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki earlier this week with two years and $38M remaining on his contract, so he can now sign with any team for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki had surgery on both heels earlier this year and he did not play this season at all. In fact, he hasn’t played in the big leagues since July 2017.

Tulowitzki turned 34 in October and he hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 66 games and 260 plate appearances in 2017, the last time he played. A few days ago Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins rather candidly told Ben Nicholson-Smith that he didn’t expect much from Tulowitzki next year. Here’s what Atkins said:

“Candidly, and I think Troy would agree, (above-average production is) not likely,” Atkins told the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America Wednesday afternoon. “He will have to over-achieve to play shortstop at an above-average level with above-average offensive performance for 140 games. That would be unlikely based on what has occurred in the last two and a half years, but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to do it. But candidly, I don’t think that’s likely.”

Ouch! Reports indicate Tulowitzki has completed his heel surgery (surgeries, really) recovery and he’s currently working out at home, so that’s good. In a vacuum, I’m not opposed to Tulowitzki as a second base (not shortstop) option. My only concern is that the Yankees are a win now team and there’s a chance he’s a total zero next year, leaving them short a reliable middle infielder.

To me, Tulowitzki would almost have to be a Plan B lottery ticket signing, not someone you pencil into the Opening Day lineup. The problem with that is Tulowitzki probably won’t settle for being some team’s Plan B. He’ll likely go to whichever team offers the most playing time. The Yankees have offense to spare, in theory, so perhaps they’re in position to roll the dice on dirt cheap Tulowitzki. It would be fun. I just think they need more of a sure thing.

Frederick asks: With Paul Goldschmidt going to the Cardinals, will they make Carpenter available or is he actually going to play third base for them? What would it take to put pinstripes on Carpenter, and would that give Hal cover to continue pinching pennies and avoid signing Harper?

Nah, they’re not making Matt Carpenter available. The Cardinals didn’t just trade for one of the best hitters on the planet only to turn around and trade away one of the other best hitters on the planet. Carpenter’s bat makes up plenty for the bad defense, and besides, I’m sure the Cardinals will swap him out for defense in the late innings. If the Cardinals make Carpenter available, I’d want to the Yankees got go after him hard. The guy hit .257/.374/.523 (128 wRC+) with 36 homers last year and he’s owed $14.5M next year ($8.67M luxury tax hit) with an $18.5M option for 2020. Carpenter would be a marvelous fit at first base. He’s everything we all hoped Greg Bird would be. There’s no way St. Louis will trade him though. They were adding Goldschmidt to him, not adding Goldschmidt to subtract Carpenter. The Cardinals want to win next year and he helps him do that.

Toshiki asks: What are your thoughts about trading for Jose Martinez? I believe Martinez’s playing time is significantly reduced with Cardinals trading for Goldschmidt and with overcrowded OF (Ozuna, Fowler, O’Neill, and Bader).

I’d definitely take Martinez at first base. He’s an awful defensive outfielder and, truth be told, he’s an awful defensive first baseman. There’s only one DH spot though, and when a guy hits .309/.372/.478 (130 wRC+) with 31 homers and a 19.0% strikeout rate in 915 plate appearances the last two years like Martinez has, I’m willing to live with the glove. He’s still in his pre-arbitration years too. Martinez has been mentioned in a few trade rumors this last week or so and I get it, definitely listen to offers because something might blow you away, but it sure seems to me that his bat would be very valuable on an NL bench. He’s imperfect but I’d take a shot on him at first base.

Matthew asks: Feel like I haven’t heard too much about Brantley to the Yanks. Report out now saying he is willing (different from able, I know) to play 1b. Isn’t he the exact guy we need? Injuries a major concern, but will also in theory keep his price down. Low K, line drive hitter, stick him in-between judge Stanton he could rake.

Of course Michael Brantley would fit the lineup well. He hit .309/.364/.468 (124 wRC+) with 17 homers and the second lowest strikeout rate (9.5%) in baseball in 2018. Brantley is more of a doubles guy than a homers guy but that’s okay with me. He’s high quality all-around hitter and I’d take him in my lineup any day. Can Brantley play first base? Who knows. He’s never done it in the big leagues and there’d be a learning curve, but his agent indicated he’s willing to do it, and that’s good. Buy-in is important.

More than anything, the question is money. Andrew McCutchen’s contract with the Phillies (three years, $50M) pretty much set the market for Brantley. The Yankees would have to go over the $206M luxury tax threshold to sign him. If they’re willing to do that, Brantley is worth looking into as a first base option. If they’re not willing to go over the threshold, then forget it, there’s no way this will work. Brantley can really hit though. That guy makes any lineup better and he’s my pick to look like the best bargain among the big name free agents 12 months from now.

David asks: If Andujar is destined for LF/1B, wouldn’t he be more valuable to the Yankees as trade bait? Coming off (what should have been ROY) a great season at the plate after playing 3B all year, it seems he is a peak value. Wouldn’t his trade value go down after a position change? Let him headline a package for Thor or Kluber?

Yeah, you can definitely make the case the Yankees should trade Miguel Andujar. In fact, I did it a few months ago. I love the kid, but I’m not sure Andujar will ever be even an average defender at any position, and the fact he rarely walks limits his offensive ceiling to come degree. His OBP will always be held back a bit. I wouldn’t trade Andujar just for the sake of trading him. You’d have to get a Corey Kluber or Noah Syndergaard type back. A true difference-maker. If that player is not available or the two sides can’t agree on the rest of the package, then I have no problem keeping Andujar. I think there’s still another level or two to come offensively and (somewhat) improved defense.

Paul asks: What about Adam Warren as a swingman?

It seems Warren’s days as a potential starter are over. He became a two-pitch pitcher this past season — Warren embraced the anti-fastball philosophy and threw more sliders (45.3%) than fastballs (40.0%) in 2018 — and it’s been a long time since he’s been asked to handle a starter’s workload. I’m sure he can still be an effective multi-inning reliever. I don’t think a true swingman role (long reliever/spot starter) would work. Warren is my dude. He’s forever cool with me. That said, he’s almost certainly had his best years already, and I am totally cool with letting some other team pay for his decline years.

Dave asks: I know that you can’t just look at results to determine who the real prospects are, but it’s hard to look away from 58K/4BB. What gives with Reiver Sanmartin (not even mentioned in the Farm System Year in Review)?

Yeah that was an oversight on my part. I should’ve included Sanmartin in the season review post. The Yankees got him from the Rangers in the Ronald Herrera roster shuffle trade last year — Herrera got hurt in Spring Training and didn’t pitch at all this season, and last month the Rangers dropped him from the 40-man roster — and the 22-year-old southpaw is a low-90s fastball/slider/changeup guy who’s been praised for his pitching smarts.

The Yankees had Sanmartin bounce around from level to level this season and he finished the year with a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings. He’s a slight little guy (6-foot-2 and 160 lbs.) and, at this point, if he hasn’t filled out and added velocity, he probably never will. I’m not sure there’s enough here to start but Sanmartin’s interesting as a three-pitch lefty who refuses to walk hitters (career 3.3 BB%). Maybe he can make it work out of the bullpen? Reiver the Reliever™ has a nice ring to it.

Michael asks: What do you think of Asdrubal Cabrera as a Didi fill-in? He’s experienced, could play 2B or SS, a switch hitter who could bring some balance, and could probably be had for a short term deal if the money is right.

I could see Cabrera as this year’s Neil Walker, meaning that veteran infielder who remains unsigned until Spring Training starts. Asdrubal has been solid offensively the last few seasons, including hitting .262/.316/.458 (111 wRC+) with 23 home runs this past season, but wow is his defense at second base bad. Far worse than I realized. The numbers the last few years:

• 2017: -6 DRS
• 2018: -17 DRS

Eek. The numbers are just as bad at shortstop and slightly better at third base, but playing Cabrera at third base doesn’t help the Yankees replace Didi Gregorius. I think the Yankees should prioritize defense when replacing Sir Didi. Cabrera is a negative defender and his bat is good, but not great. I feel like there has to be a better option out there. If Asdrubal is still sitting out there in Spring Training, he’s worth revisiting.

Zachary asks: Been reported a few places that the dodgers would look to deal from their excess SP group for upgrades at other positions. It seems like they have a surplus of players at every position, but how do the Yankees line up and which Dodger SP would you target?

Do the Dodgers really have a surplus of starting pitchers? I keep seeing it reported that they’ll willing to trade a starter for help elsewhere, and this is their rotation depth chart:

1. Clayton Kershaw (franchise icon)
2. Walker Buehler (budding star)
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu (accepted the qualifying offer and can’t be traded until June)
4. Rich Hill (averaged 126 innings the last three years)
5. Kenta Maeda (demoted to the bullpen this year)
6. Alex Wood (demoted to the bullpen this year)
7. Ross Stripling (ran out of gas in the second half this year)
8. Julio Urias (coming back from a torn shoulder capsule)

The Dodgers needed all those guys plus others to get through the season this year. I’m not sure they’re as loaded with depth as they seem to believe. Assuming Kershaw and Buehler are off-limits, I’d take Wood over the rest almost by default. The 27-year-old threw 151.2 innings with a 3.68 ERA (3.53 FIP) this season and nowadays he’s a ground ball guy (48.9%) more than a strikeout guy (21.2%). MLBTR projects him to make $9.0M in his final year of arbitration in 2019.

The biggest obstacle standing in the way of a potential Dodgers trade is that their needs are the same as the Yankees. They need a second baseman and bullpen help, and have outfield depth to spare. The Yankees need a second baseman and bullpen help, and have outfield depth to spare. It seem Los Angeles is open to trading a starter for a middle infielder and/or a bullpen arm. The Yankees could give them Chad Green or something, otherwise I don’t know if there’s a match between these two teams.

Dennis asks: Any interest in engaging the Rockies on Ryan McMahon. Colorado has never really given him much of a chance and he could be a fit at 1B.

Yes, definitely. The Rockies led Ian Desmond hit .236/.307/.422 (81 wRC+) at first base this year rather than let McMahon, a longtime top prospect, show what he can do. The 23-year-old McMahon has hit .337/.379/.577 (145 wRC+) with 25 homers in 125 Triple-A games the last two years and he’s taken well to first base after moving over from third (because he’s block by Nolan Arenado). A lefty bat with power who can play both corner infield spots is a worth pursuing. I have no idea what the Rockies are planning to do with McMahon — would they really send him back to Triple-A again and keep playing Desmond at first? — but if they’re willing to listen to offers, the Yankees should check in.

The Winter Meetings are right around the corner and we’ve got ten questions in this week’s mailbag. It was eleven before Jonathan Schoop signed with the Twins last night. Send questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Bob asks: Now that the Mets have acquired Robinson Cano, do you think they’d move Jeff McNeil? I’d definitely have interest in him….what do you think it would take to get him? How about if the deal is expanded to include Thor?

Unless Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar is on the table, I don’t see how the Yankees could get Noah Syndergaard at this point. Nevermind the Yankees-Mets aspect of this. The Yankees don’t have that elite prospect to offer anymore. I don’t see how they could swing a Syndergaard trade. Not with so many other teams (Padres and Astros, reportedly) in the mix and presumably ready to pounce.

As for McNeil, the Mets have indicated the plan is for him to become their multi-position guy. I was hoping he’d be included in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade so the Yankees could try to pry him away from Seattle, because a crosstown trade with the Mets won’t happen. McNeil was an older rookie this season (he debuted at 26 years and 107 days of age) and he hit .329/.381/.471 (137 wRC+) with 9.7% strikeouts and 5.6% walks in 248 plate appearances.

There’s not much power (or speed) here — McNeil hit three homers with the Mets last year and 28 homers in 426 career minor league games — but McNeil is a left-handed hitter who makes a ton of contact and plays a smooth second base. He’d be the ideal fill-in for Didi Gregorius, really. Put him at second until Gregorius returns, then put McNeil or Torres at third base when Gregorius is back, and move Andujar to first or left.

I don’t think McNeil is a true talent .329 (or 137 wRC+) hitter. He ran a .359 BABIP with a .368 wOBA this year despite an expected .322 wOBA based on his contact quality. A guy who puts the ball in play this much is liable to run high BABIPs though, and besides, even with some regression, McNeil would still be a fine addition. Clint Frazier for McNeil? Mike King for McNeil? I dunno what it’d take, but McNeil would definitely fit the Yankees.

Dmitry asks: If the Yanks can’t find anyone for 5th starter, how about this: give the 5th spot to Loaisiga (if he gets through ST healthy), then when he hits his innings limit around August, Monty should be coming back from his rehab and could assume the role. Maybe cheaply sign Lynn for backup, and spend the money on Manny to clobber offensively. Or is that too much wishful thinking?

That seems overly optimistic, and I really like Jonathan Loaisiga. This is one of those plans that sounds great in December and leaves you wondering what the hell you were thinking in May. Only once since 2013 has Loaisiga thrown more than five full innings in an outing, and that was a 5.1-inning start earlier this year. Pitching deep into games and staying healthy isn’t really his thing. I guess the Yankees could use an opener for him, but it still seems like a lot to ask from a kid with a long injury history and not much experience. And counting on a post-Tommy John surgery Jordan Montgomery to pick up the slack in the second half is equally risky. I like Johnny Lasagna but he would be something like Plan D or Plan E for the open rotation spot for me. The Yankees need to go get a starter.

Paul asks: What about a swap of buy low prospects in Clint Frazier for Luiz Gohara?

The framework makes sense. I don’t know if the Braves want Frazier coming off a concussion or if the Yankees want Gohara coming off a sore shoulder, but it does seem like a reasonable damaged goods/change of scenery swap. The Yankees need pitching and have outfielders to spare, and the Braves need a corner outfielder and have pitching to spare. It fits, at least moreso than most fan trade proposals (our trade proposals suck).

Gohara, 22, had a 4.94 ERA (4.45 FIP) with 23.8% strikeouts and 6.5% walks in 54.2 Triple-A innings this year, and, in 49 big league innings spread across 2017-18, he had a 5.33 ERA (3.47 FIP) with 23.9% strikeouts and 7.8% walks. MLB.com currently ranks him as the 78th best prospect in baseball. There are two red flags with Gohara. Well, three counting the sore shoulder. One, his command is pretty sketchy, and two, his conditioning. Gohara is a big boy.

Gohara is listed at 6-foot-3 and 265 lbs. and he’s had conditioning issues throughout his career. That said, he’s a lefty with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, a wipeout slider, and a good changeup. That makes it easy to overlook some conditioning issues. (The CC Sabathia comparisons have lingered for years.) The shoulder would have to check out okay — and Frazier’s brain would have to check out okay for the Braves — but yeah, I’d be down with a Frazier-for-Gohara swap. You’ll have to stay on top of the kid about his conditioning. It is what it is. You can’t teach what he can do with a baseball though.

Dan asks: Now that Corbin has gone to the Nats, how likely do you think a Harper/Machado signing is for the Yanks? Without them picking up Corbin and one of Harper or Machado, this would one up being one hell of a disappointing offseason.

Only slightly more likely, if it is more likely at all. Signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado always felt like a luxury item to me, so to speak. Meaning, if the Yankees sign them, it’ll be because Brian Cashman convinces ownership to splurge and exceed the luxury tax threshold. The Yankees are going to have to pay someone to fill that open rotation spot and, financially, the difference between Patrick Corbin and someone like J.A. Happ may not even be $10M a year. I don’t think that’s enough to create a meaningful difference in the odds of signing Harper or Machado. Those dudes are special cases and, to me, signing them feels like a decision that gets made irrespective of everything else going on with the roster.

Douglas asks: Since it seems like it’s open season on M’s players, any potential fit for Kyle Seager at first base?

Moving Seager to first base would be a waste of the one thing he still does well, and that’s play defense at third. If anything, keep Seager at third and move Andujar to first. The baseball corner of the internet spent so many years calling Seager underrated that he became overrated, and now he’s just bad. On offense, everything about him is trending in the wrong direction. Look at this:

	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	XBH	ISO	K%	BB%
2016	.278/.359/.499	134	30	69	.221	16.0%	10.2%
2017	.249/.323/.450	107	27	61	.201	16.9%	8.9%
2018	.221/.273/.400	84	22	59	.178	21.9%	6.0%

Seager just turned 31, so he’s not so old that a rebound would be impossible, and I’m sure moving into Yankee Stadium as a left-handed hitter would boost his power numbers. Otherwise everything here is telling you to stay away. Seager is owed $56M from 2019-21 and his $15M club option for 2022 becomes a player option if he’s traded, so that’s $71M over the next four years. Yikes. Would the Mariners eat something like $40M to facilitate a trade? Does anyone even want Seager at $7M to $8M annually through 2022? This gets a pass from me.

Dan asks: Out of curiosity, did Chase Headley retire? I can’t find any news on him since SD released him.

As far as I know, he did not officially retire. The Padres released Headley on May 19th and there hasn’t been a single update to his MLBTR archive since. Apparently no teams showed interest in signing him, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Interestingly enough, Headley was released with ten years and one day of service time. Ten full years of service time locks in the maximum pension. Did San Diego keep Headley on their roster just long enough for him to qualify for the max pension? Would be kinda neat if they did. It’s not often teams throw players a bone like that.

Pete asks: You’ve mentioned the fact that the sixth year of Corbin’s contract is after the current CBA expires and that makes the yanks unwilling to go there more frustrating. Why does the cba expiring before that last year make this loss hurt more?

The luxury tax threshold will rise with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement because it always rises with a new CBA, so that sixth year down the road will chew up a smaller percentage of the luxury tax payroll. Also, the MLBPA is supposedly gearing up for a labor fight in the next round of CBA talks. The luxury tax penalties could be loosened a bit and therefore make going over the threshold less painful in six years. Moreso than the luxury tax implications, the thing that irks me is Corbin is one of the best pitchers in the game, and he would’ve improved the Yankees’ chances of winning a title in the short-term considerably. There’s a time to worry about right now and a time to worry about six years down the line. The Yankees should be focused on right now. The window to win is not getting any more open and that sixth year in 2024 is something you live with to improve your chances in 2019-21.

Aaron asks: didn’t see billy hamilton in your non-tender roundup. i know there’s a logjam in the OF, but he’s an all-world defensive CF and, well, that speed. is there hope of teaching him plate discipline at this point? would he accept a AAA assignment to try it out?

Hamilton’s plate discipline isn’t all that bad, really. Over the last three seasons he’s posted a 7.6% walk rate and a 30.3% chase rate, which are almost exactly league average rates. The guy just can’t hit. He had a .236/.299/.327 (69 wRC+) line this year and a .247/.305/.335 (70 wRC+) line over the last three years. Two-hundred-and-seventy-eight players batted at least 300 times in 2018. The bottom of the hard contact rate leaderboard:

274. Odubel Herrera: 24.9%
275. Cesar Hernandez: 24.0%
276. Wilmer Difo: 21.0%
277. Dee Gordon: 20.4%
278. Billy Hamilton: 19.1%

Hamilton is a +1 WAR player on defense and baserunning alone, but there is a minimum acceptable standard for offense, and he doesn’t meet it. That’s why the Reds non-tendered him rather than pay him a projected $5.9M in 2019. I’d definitely give Hamilton a minor league contract — he has a minor league option remaining, so I suppose you could give him a 40-man spot and option him down that way — and stash him in Triple-A as a depth center fielder and September pinch-runner. Otherwise he doesn’t fit the Yankees.

Alessandro asks: With Goldschmidt now on the Cards, do you think the Yankees discuss Robbie Ray with D-Backs?

I don’t think the Paul Goldschmidt trade has anything to do with this. The Diamondbacks have decided to rebuild and I’m sure that means they were open to dealing Ray no matter what happened with Goldschmidt. With Ray, with question is which guy are you getting? He’s a classic live-armed enigma. His last three years:

• 2016: 4.90 ERA (3.76 FIP) with 28.1 K%, 9.2 BB%, 45.7 GB%
• 2017: 2.89 ERA (3.72 FIP) with 32.8 K%, 10.7 BB%, 40.3 GB%
• 2018: 3.93 ERA (4.31 FIP) with 31.4 K%, 13.3 BB%, 39.2 GB%

The strikeout rate has been consistently excellent. The walk and grounder numbers are trending in the wrong direction though, and his runs allowed numbers are all over the place. Lefties with velocity (Ray’s heater averaged 94.1 mph in 2018) who miss this many bats are always worth asking about, and since he has two years of control remaining, I imagine the D’Backs will want something on par with the James Paxton trade package. Ray’s worth a discussion. The question is how comfortable are you with someone who’s performance has been this volatile?

Brent asks: How about jose iglesias? Pretty good fielding shortstop below average hitter but could be good lockdown for a couple months and a great defensive replacement for andujar although more expensive than alberto or wade.

I like Iglesias the most among the all glove/no hit shortstops on the market (Adeiny Hechavarria, Freddy Galvis, etc.). I’d include Hanser Alberto and Tyler Wade in there too, and I like Wade. Iglesias can’t hit much — he hit .269/.310/.389 (90 wRC+) this year and .259/.301/.364 (79 wRC+) the last three years — but he can play the hell out of shortstop. I think defense should be the priority when replacing Didi Gregorius. It would be nice to get someone who can hit a little. If that’s not possible, Iglesias is my preferred target among the glove only guys because I think he has the best glove.

We’ve got ten questions in this week’s mailbag. Good mailbag, I think. Remember to send all your mailbag questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Scott asks: With the Braves signing of Donaldson rendering Camargo expendable, is a Camargo/Gardner trade in the cards?

Starting with the Brett Gardner part of Scott’s question, the Yankees can’t trade him. Not without his consent, and even if he does okay a trade, they have to take basically nothing in return. MLB has rules against trading recently signed free agents. From Article XX(B)(5)(a):

Any Club signing a contract with a Player under this Section B after the expiration of the Quiet Period described in subsection 2(b) above may not assign his contract until after the next June 15. However, notwithstanding the foregoing, such contract may be assigned for other Player contracts and/or cash consideration of $50,000 or less prior to the next June 16 if the Player gives written consent to such transaction.

In English, that means teams can not trade a recently signed free agent until June 16th of the following year without his consent, and, if he does consent, the total value received (contracts and cash) can not exceed $50,000. That is the league’s way of preventing “sign a free agent and trade him for a stud” video game moves. Gardner for Johan Camargo is not possible right now. Gardner for anything worth more than $50,000 is not possible right now. (Plus he still has his 10-and-5 rights, remember, so he’ll have to consent to a trade even after June 15th.)

As for Camargo, I’d take that dude in a heartbeat. He turns 25 next month, he hit .272/.349/.457 (115 wRC+) with 19 homers last year, he switch-hits, he’s a very good defender who can play all over the infield, and he’s under team control through 2023. He’d be an amazing pickup who can help cover for Didi Gregorius in the short-term and push Miguel Andujar to first base or left field in the long-term. Following the Josh Donaldson signing, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos said the team plans to turn Camargo into their Marwin Gonzalez. Makes sense. I don’t think Camargo is available, at least not while Dansby Swanson is spinning his wheels.

Hypothetically, does Clint Frazier fit? The Braves are looking for a corner outfielder to replace Nick Markakis and Frazier’s from the Atlanta area — no team loves hometown players as much as the Braves — so maybe there’s a fit. Atlanta also needs bullpen help and the Yankees could kick in a reliever (Chad Green?) to even things out. Frazier and Green for Camargo? Hypothetically, of course, since Camargo doesn’t seem available and Frazier’s coming off what was essentially a lost year. I’d take Camargo though. For sure. If there’s a way to get it done, the Yankees should get on it.

Rich asks: I say this with the obligatory MTPS. What about a trade of Sonny Gray to the Twins with Byron Buxton being the major piece coming back? Or would Minnesota be too concerned about BB turning out like Aaron Hicks?

Gosh, if the Yankees could swing Gray-for-Buxton, they should do it like yesterday. Buxton absolutely stunk this season — he hit .156/.183/.200 (-3 wRC+) in 28 big league games around wrist and toe injuries — but he played hurt and a year ago he managed a .300/.347/.546 (130 wRC+) line in the second half. He turns 25 next month and the worst case scenario is Buxton becomes a No. 9 hitter who plays elite center field defense. There’s more than enough talent here to justify a roll of the dice. Buxton has a minor league option for 2019 and that’s why I think the Twins will keep him. They won’t be forced to keep him on their MLB roster next year. (Hicks was out-of-options at the time of the trade.) I’d totally do Gray-for-Buxton. Classic high-upside buy-low opportunity. If it doesn’t work out, so be it. A player this talented and this young is always worth a shot.

Jeff asks: Any interest in Cervelli as the backup catcher?

An $11.5M backup catcher ($10.3M luxury tax hit)? In a vacuum, hell yeah I’d take Francisco Cervelli over Austin Romine. But even a team willing to blow through the $206M luxury tax threshold probably wouldn’t pay that much for a backup catcher. A backup catcher who, in a perfect world, doesn’t play a whole lot because Gary Sanchez goes back to being 2017 Gary Sanchez. You’d have to give up something pretty decent to get Cervelli anyway. Ask the Pirates to eat money and you’d have to give up even more for, again, a backup catcher. Cervelli would of course be an upgrade over Romine. A big one. This doesn’t seem all that plausible given his salary and the likely acquisition cost.

Michael asks: Is the difference in on-field performance between Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ enough to warrant the difference in contracts that they’ll likely demand (both in years and salary)? I’d be happy with either, but I feel like Happ is the better value and I have a hunch the Yankees feel that way too.

I totally get the argument but I think Corbin > Happ in both the short and long-term. Happ turned 36 last month, his ERA+ has gone from 124 to 127 to 117 (still good!) the last three years, and, most importantly, his fastball spin rate declined significantly this past season, which is kind of a big deal for a dude who throws nearly 80% fastballs.

Corbin is seven years younger and, compared to Happ, he misses more bats and gets more grounders with the same walk rate. He’s right in the prime of his career and I think the upside — the upside we saw last year — is far greater than it is with Happ, who, at this point of his career, you’re just kinda hoping he maintains last year’s performance and doesn’t decline further. Corbin’s contract might be four times richer than Happ’s in total guarantee but maybe only $5M richer annually. I think it’s worth it. Get the younger, better pitcher with the potential to be a top ten in the league guy. The window to win is now. Maximize it and don’t sweat the $/WAR stuff.

Julian asks: Should the Yankees consider Cory Spangenberg if they miss out on Marwin Gonzalez?

Spangenberg is a poor man’s Derek Dietrich, who is a poor man’s Marwin Gonzalez. Spangenberg was the tenth overall pick in 2011 but he’ll never live up to that draft slot (he was seen as a reach at the time anyway). He’s 27, he’s a lefty hitter with a career .258/.319/.381 (94 wRC+) batting line and a 26.4% strikeout rate in nearly 1,300 big league plate appearances, and he can play several positions (second, third, left) but none of them well. Meh. The Padres dumped Spangenberg to clear 40-man roster space prior to the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline and, if the Yankees can get him on a minor league deal and have him compete for a job in Spring Training, go for it. I wouldn’t guarantee him a 40-man roster spot though, let alone an Opening Day roster spot.

Adam asks: Would you take a serious look at Dee Gordon as a possible utility player and part-time 2B? Seems like he would be a welcome presence in the lineup at #9, and might not cost much after an down year (so you can always cut bait). What would it take?

Hard pass on Gordon. He hit .268/.288/.349 (77 wRC+) this past season and .285/.315/.357 (84 wRC+) in over 1,600 plate appearances the last three years. There are two years and $27.5M remaining on his contract and he’s a soon-to-be 31-year-old whose entire game is build around his legs. Once he loses a step, his value will plummet. The Mariners would have to eat how much for this to make sense, enough to turn Gordon into a $5M a year player the next two years? Even if that happens and the Mariners take a low level prospect in return, I’m inclined to sit this one out. I don’t see much upside here and I think there are better options in free agency.

Chris asks (short version): What do you think the chances are that the Yanks might bring either Martin Prado or Starlin Castro back from Miami?

Definite no on Prado. He’s 35 and knee trouble has limited him to 91 games the last two seasons, 91 games in which he hit .246/.284/.326 (67 wRC+) with -0.5 WAR. Prado is owed $15M next year and, even if the Marlins eat a bunch of money, I don’t think you could count on him to stay healthy or produce. Had Prado become a free agent this offseason, I get the feeling he’d be heading for a forced retirement. I don’t think teams would have much interest at all.

Castro’s an interesting idea though. The Yankees need an infielder while Gregorius is out and Starlin could play second and provide coverage at short as well. He’s somehow still only 28 and he hit an okay .278/.329/.400 (101 wRC+) with 12 homers for the Marlins this past season. That is the quintessential Starlin Castro batting line. He’s been the same hitter throughout his career and hasn’t taken that step forward. Starlin is owed $11M in 2019 plus a $1M buyout of his $16M option for 2020, but his luxury tax hit is only $8.57M. Miami would probably take a small return just to unload the money. Hmmm.

Matt asks: I don’t know much about him, but I was reading that the Brewers opted to leave 1B Jake Gatewood unprotected for the Rule 5 draft. Connecting some dots, it appears that he may be an intriguing option to fill the void at first. Any thoughts?

The High School Home Run Derby takes place during the All-Star break each year. MLB brings the kids to the All-Star Game, they swing away Sunday morning before the Futures Game, and the final round takes place during commercial breaks during the Home Run Derby on Monday night. I mention this because Gatewood was in the 2013 finals and it was bomb city at Citi Field.

Metal bats, yeah, but Gatewood was 17 at the time and he was putting balls in the second deck at a big league park. I remember watching from my seat and being like damn, who’s this kid?

Anyway, the Brewers drafted Gatewood with the 41st pick in the 2014 draft and he’s been dogged by contact issues in the minors. He has a career 29.2% strikeout rate and in 2018 he hit .244/.302/.466 (112 RC+) with a 29.4% strikeout rate in Double-A. The power is legit — Gatewood hit 19 homers in 94 games this year — but it’s hard for me to see him making a successful jump from Double-A to MLB with those contact issues. I’d roll with Luke Voit and Greg Bird at first base over Gatewood.

Dmitry asks: I recently attended a physicians conference where the Yanks team Doctor (Chris Ahmad) said hitters dont need to worry about reinjury of TJS after 4 months. With this in mind, would the Yanks consider starting Didi at DH? His wrc+ of 121, while much better at SS, would play at DH. Perhaps start him there, Stanton in LF, and move Didi back and reshuffle when he is able to throw? Or would they lose too much versatility by having a bat only DH?

Interesting thought. Shohei Ohtani will supposed DH next season while rehabbing his new ligament and preparing to pitch in 2020. I mean, if the doctors say it’s okay, then it must be okay. Who am I to doubt them? The new ligament is healthy enough to swing a bat after four months. I suppose there’s injury risk sliding (coughGleyberTorrescough) but that exists at all times, right? A player coming back from Tommy John surgery is not necessarily at increased risk of hurting his elbow sliding. I suspect the Yankees will show an abundance of caution with Gregorius. Their situation could change things — what happens if they fall behind in the AL East race and really need another lefty bat? — but I think their plan going into the season will be to let Gregorius complete his full rehab and return as a shortstop. Maybe I’m wrong and they’ll be open-minded about bringing him back early as a DH. Would be kinda cool.

Bill asks: Jordan Montgomery. What do the Yankees do with him if he is ready this summer? Most pitchers can come back but are not that effective after a year and a half. Wheeler for the Mets took more time to be effective. Will they give him the time. He could be our Andy Pettitte of the future.

Well, I disagree Montgomery could be Pettitte. Pettitte was way better in every way. Stuff-wise and command-wise. As for what happens with Montgomery this year, there’s really nothing anyone can do but wait. Let him complete his rehab — he had his Tommy John surgery on June 7th and that puts him on track to return sometime after the All-Star break — and see where the rotation’s at once he’s healthy. The Yankees might have an opening.

I said this in his season review post: I am kinda worried about post-elbow reconstruction Montgomery. Guys like him have the most to lose with Tommy John surgery because if his stuff slips at all, he could have a real hard time getting outs at the MLB level. It usually takes pitchers some time to get all the way back following Tommy John surgery. We might not see Montgomery back at 100% until 2020. Let him finish his rehab and see where he (and the rotation) is at come July or August. Don’t plan on him contributing. Consider anything he gives the Yankees next year gravy. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Montgomery makes more Triple-A starts than MLB starts in 2019.

No, it’s not Friday, but it is Thanksgiving week, so I’m posting the mailbag early. The rest of the week will be pretty slow around here. Anyway, there are eight questions in this week’s special Wednesday edition of the mailbag. Send all your questions and comments to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Greg asks: Harper. Five years, $200 million. Who says no? Harper at 10 years 330 million+ just seems like too long a commitment, right? Yankees burn through luxury tax money but at least they know they’re as likely as can be to get Bryce’s 5 best years, and the dollars are still worth it in terms of likely WAR. Which side says no? Or is this a plausible deal?

It’s a good idea but this contract isn’t realistic at all. In the current landscape, your only hope of getting a guy like Bryce Harper on a five-year deal is giving him a ten-year deal with an opt-out after five years. Jason Heyward got eight years with opt-outs after years three and four. That’s essentially a three (or four) year deal with a five (or four) year insurance policy. Eric Hosmer got eight years with an opt-out after year five. That’s a five-year deal with a three-year insurance policy. That’s the free agent landscape right now.

Harper and Manny Machado are going to sign contracts so convoluted and loaded with opt-outs that it’ll be impossible to tell whether it’s fair value. They’re in position to get massive deals. I’m talking ten years and more than $30M annually. And they will sign for that. They’re also going to get opt-outs, probably more than one. That way, if things are going really well, they can test the market again. And if not, they stick to the original contract. A short-term, big dollar deal doesn’t work anymore. They’ll take the long-term deal with opt-outs rather than potentially leave themselves in position to struggle for work in a few years.

Jim asks (short version): Why are our Yankees farmhands assigned to the Glendale team doing so poorly? Especially the hitters in what I thought was regarded as a hitter’s league? Or, to look at it more broadly, after all the promotions and trades has our farm system gone quickly from exceptional to ordinary??

It was a really crappy year in the Arizona Fall League for Yankees prospects. I posted a minor league update earlier this week that quickly got buried by the Paxton trade. Thairo Estrada hit .238/.282/.263. Estevan Florial hit .178/.294/.260. The four pitchers combined to allow 45 runs in 56 innings. Yuck. The Yankees didn’t send any notable pitching prospects to the AzFL this year. I wouldn’t worry about them. Matt Wivinis is the most interesting as a spin rate guy. That’s about it. Don’t sweat the arms.

As for Estrada and Florial, they at least have the injury excuse? Thairo got shot last offseason and didn’t have the bullet removed until June. Plus he had some wrist and back trouble. Florial had wrist surgery this summer. But still, it was a disappointing year in the AzFL. I wouldn’t obsess over it — we’re talking about only 100 plate appearances or so — but yeah, it was a disappointing AzFL showing for everyone wearing the interlocking NY. I was hoping Florial in particular would tear it up. Alas.

As for the farm system overall, yes, it has definitely gone from great to middle of the pack (or worse) the last 18 months or so. For good reasons though. The Yankees graduated Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green to the big leagues, among others. They used Justus Sheffield, Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo, and others as trade chips. It’s not like their prospects busted. Looking at my 2017 top 30 list, 15 of the 30 are either established MLB players or were traded for established MLB players, including ten of the top 14. That is a pretty great rate of return.

Tim asks: What is your prediction for when/if/where Thairo Estrada plays? By 2020 (or late 2019?) could he take over 2B allowing Torres to 3rd & Andujar to 1B how would the infield defense look in this hypothetical if Didi is a long term guy?

The injuries this season, which include getting shot in a botched robbery this past January, essentially put Estrada’s career on hold for a year. I really like the kid. He’s a rich man’s Ronald Torreyes. He gets the bat on the ball consistently and has some pop, and he’s a very good defender who can play the three non-first base infield positions. That’s a high-end utility guy or a low-end starter. Not sexy! But it’s better to grow your own players like that than give them a few million bucks as free agents.

Including the Arizona Fall League, the 22-year-old Estrada played only 37 games and received only 167 plate appearances this year. Ideally he’d spend most of 2019 in Triple-A to play as much as possible. That said, if a need arises at the MLB level, he’s on the 40-man roster and is a call-up option. I think Thairo’s an up-and-down guy in 2019, a full-time bench guy in 2020, and possibly a starter by 2021. I certainly wouldn’t let him stand of the way of a Didi Gregorius extension or Machado signing. Estrada looks like a useful piece but not a cornerstone type.

Dan asks: I don’t think the trade is bad at all, but did the Yanks strike too soon on Justus for Paxton, rather than waiting and trying to use him to acquire a better pitcher (Kluber, MadBum). You can only trade Justus once.

Nah, I don’t think they acted too soon. I’d rather have James Paxton than Madison Bumgarner at this point — Bumgarner is still really good, but it’s one year of Bumgarner vs. two of Paxton (Bumgarner’s past postseason success is meaningless to the Yankees) — and I’m not convinced Corey Kluber will actually be traded. Would I rather the Yankees have used Sheffield to get Kluber or Carlos Carrasco? Yes. But that may not have been possible, and you can’t ask the Mariners to wait to trade Paxton until you’ve exhausted trade talks with the Indians. I mean, you could, but they don’t have oblige. The choice wasn’t necessarily Paxton or Kluber/Bumgarner. It might’ve been Paxton or nothing because Kluber and Bumgarner aren’t truly attainable. Totally fine with it. Paxton’s really good and high-end starters are hard to acquire. Strike when you can and don’t worry about what’s behind Door No. 2.

Seb asks: What would it take to pry away Andrelton Simmons from the Angels? Would you be interested?

It’d take a lot to get him and yes I’d be extremely interested. Simmons is still only 29, he remains an All-World defender at shortstop, and his bat has come around the last few seasons. He hit .292/.337/.417 (109 wRC+) with eleven homers this year and .278/.331/.421 (103 wRC+) with 14 homers last year. That offense with his defense makes Simmons a comfortable +5 WAR player. There are two years and $28M remaining on his contract ($8.29M luxury tax hit) which is extremely reasonable. I’d take Simmons in a heartbeat, especially with Gregorius out.

What would it take? Well, that’s the hard part. The Yankees don’t have Sheffield to trade anymore and their tippy top prospects are all lower level kids like Florial and Anthony Seigler. Aside from Andujar and Torres, their top MLB ready trade chips are concussed Clint Frazier, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, and Mike King. I don’t think two of those four (or three of the four?) plus other stuff would be enough. I’d want more if I were the Angels. Simmons would be a real great fit as a high contact (7.3 K% in 2018) bat. And once Gregorius returns, the Yankees could put Simmons at short, Didi at second, Gleyber at third, and Andujar in left or at first.

John asks: With the addition of Paxton, what is the future for J.A. Happ?

The Paxton trade doesn’t necessarily close the door on Happ. The Yankees are reportedly still interested in him. They have an open rotation spot and he’d be a cheaper alternative to Patrick Corbin. My quick math says the Yankees have $25M to spend under the $206M luxury tax threshold. Corbin would eat up pretty much all of that. Happ would chew up what, maybe $13M to $15M a year? That’d leave money for a Gregorius replacement and bullpen help. Heck, the Paxton trade might make a Happ reunion more likely given the financials associated with signing Corbin. In a vacuum, I’d greatly prefer Corbin. He’s younger and I think he’ll be the better pitcher going forward. This isn’t a vacuum though, salaries matter, and Happ may be the better fit. Happ is not going to have any shortage of suitors, of course. The Yankees will have to win a bidding war no matter which free agent starter they sign.

Emily asks: You said something in the chat this week that confused me: under a potential two-team expansion, you advocated for two leagues composed of four four-team divisions and a balanced schedule, with the top four teams from each league going to the playoffs, irrespective of division. Well if it’s a balanced schedule and records are irrespective of division, what purpose does having divisions serve?

As noted, my ideal MLB setup is two 16-team leagues, balanced schedules, and the top four teams in each league going to the postseason. Divisions would be pointless. Baseball also loves history and tradition though, and eliminating divisions all together seems like one of those things that would make people unnecessarily mad. So make four four-team divisions for bragging rights or whatever. Then people can complain it’s unfair that a division winner doesn’t make the postseason when it inevitably happens. There’s no reason for divisions under my preferred setup. It gives folks something to talk about though. Bragging rights, etc. Divisions would be pointless but also harmless.

Mark asks: Seeing how the Yankees stayed under the Base Tax Threshold, do they see part of the money paid into the Luxury Tax from other teams?

Indeed. The Yankees do get a piece of the luxury tax pie this year. According to the Ronald Blum, only the Red Sox ($11.3M) and Nationals ($2.1M) have to pay luxury tax this year. Here’s what happens to that combined $13.4M in luxury tax money per Collective Bargaining Agreement Article XXIII(H)(2)(a-c):

(a) The first $13 million of proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be used to defray the Clubs’ funding obligations arising from the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.
(b) 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to fund contributions to the Players’ individual retirement accounts, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.
(c) The other 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be provided to Clubs that did not exceed the Base Tax Threshold in that Contract Year.

Right off the top, $13M of the $13.4M is taken to defray player benefits. Half the remaining $400,000 is taken to help fund player retirement accounts. The remaining $200,000 is then given to the non-luxury tax paying teams. The $200,000 divided by 28 non-luxury tax paying teams equals $7,142.86 per team. An insignificant amount.

The Yankees have had some substantial luxury tax bills over the years. It was $27.4M as recently as 2016, for example. Chop that up as laid out above and the Yankees paid about $300,000 in luxury tax money to the 24 non-luxury tax paying teams that year. Still an insignificant amount to an MLB team. The Yankees have said they don’t want to line the pockets of other teams with luxury tax money, which is fine. But they’re not giving these teams millions. It’s a couple grand apiece.

We have eleven questions in this week’s mailbag. Make sure you send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can each week.

Matt asks: Question: Is there any value in Carlos Santana, does he fit? Or is it just more name value and someone we should pass on trying to take off the Phillies hands.

Reports indicate the Phillies are trying to move Santana, who has two years and $35M remaining on his contract ($20M luxury tax hit). Rhys Hoskins was a disaster in left field this year (-24 DRS) and they have to get him back at first base, which means Santana has to go. Santana hit .229/.352/.414 (109 wRC+) with 24 homers and more walks (110) than strikeouts (93) in 2018, and a terrible April dragged down his overall numbers.

• April: .153/.295/.276 (63 wRC+)
• Rest of 2018: .245/.364/.444 (119 wRC+)

Post-April Santana is the guy we’re used to seeing. The Yankees have a clear need at first base — they could also put Santana (or Luke Voit) at DH and Giancarlo Stanton in left field — and a switch-hitter with power and patience would fit the lineup well. The Phillies would have to eat money to facilitate a trade, I think that’s true no matter where they send Santana at this point, but yeah, I think there’s a potential fit. Does something like, say, Santana and $12M for Jonathan Loaisiga work?

Armando asks: Let’s say Nats don’t sign Harper, would they then finally tear down by trading Mad Max? And if you’re the Yankees do you empty the farm to get him? Finally wouldn’t he be the Yankees answer to the Chris Sale trade?

I seriously doubt the Nationals would rebuild even if Bryce Harper leaves. They still have a really good core! They’d go into next season with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg fronting the rotation and Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner anchoring the lineup. Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, and top prospect Victor Robles could all be factors as well. The American League is top and bottom heavy. There are superpowers and a bunch of awful teams. The National League has more top-to-bottom mediocrity. Even if they can’t beat out the Braves for the NL East title, Washington should be able to contend with the Cardinals and Phillies and Rockies for a wildcard spot next year.

Hypothetically though, if the Nationals did decide to rebuild, of course the Yankees should go after Scherzer. He is one of the top five pitchers in the world and the Yankees should always be in on guys like that. Scherzer turns 35 in July but, not only is he not slowing down, he might be better than ever right now. This past season might’ve been the best of his career. I have no concerns whatsoever about him succeeding in the AL East either. His stuff plays anywhere. Would the Nationals do this without getting Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres in return? Probably not. But Scherzer is one of the few players in the game you consider parting with one of those guys to acquire.

Mike asks: I thought it was interesting to see limiting the use of openers in this article as a change that’s being discussed for next year. Why would MLB want to shut this down? I thought it was fun to watch.

Because MLB is afraid of change, mostly. No sport is as steeped in tradition as baseball. I don’t necessarily agree openers are fun to watch — the string of pitching changes can get old quick — but I do think the strategy is brilliant. Use a good reliever to retire the top of the order before letting the long guy throw four or five innings while only facing the 1-2-3 hitters once. It’s smart. And, obviously, it worked quite well this past season.

How would MLB limit openers anyway? Force the starting pitcher to throw at least three innings or something like that? What if the dude gets rocked? I’m sure MLB will come up with something. I said this the other day, I am against anything that limits creativity. Let teams try new things. Imagine any other industry in the world being as opposed to innovation as MLB. The game evolves. Embrace the change. Cool things tend to happen when people are given the freedom to be creative.

Joe asks: With a new CF likely making Cano a 1B/DH in Seattle, could a bad contract swap for Ellsbury be feasible? Say Ellsbury plus a decent prospect (Adams/Roansy type)?

Jacoby Ellsbury for Robinson Cano has to be the most asked question in RAB mailbag history, hands down. I don’t think it’s even close. We have to get two or three Ellsbury-for-Cano questions a month, easy. Anyway, I am a firm no on Ellsbury-for-Cano. Ellsbury is pretty much useless, but it’s two years and $47M vs. five years and $120M. Cano is still really good, the guy did hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) this past season, but he just turned 36 and chances are those five years remaining on his contract will be decline years, potentially heavy decline years. They are exactly the years the Yankees wanted to avoid when they limited their offer to seven years back in the day. I greatly prefer the bad contract that ends sooner, especially when we’re talking about two years vs. five years. Just get it over with already, you know? Love Robbie, he’s forever cool with me, but I feel like there’s limited upside and a ton of downside associated with picking him up at this point of his career.

Dennis asks: What do you think of Edwin Diaz is a trade target? Seattle is “re-tooling” and an elite closer doesn’t exactly fit the mold of that direction. Yanks have a ton of prospect capital to help kickstart that rebuild/retool and Diaz is great and has 3 or 4 years of Team Control.

Diaz is awesome — he’s better than awesome, he’s one of the top five relievers in the world right now — and the Yankees should be in on him. He’s only 24, he has four years of control remaining, and he threw 73.1 innings with a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 124 strikeouts and 17 walks this past season. That’s a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. His stuff is electric in every sense of the term:

Diaz is young enough and dominant enough and under control long enough that every team will kick the tires. Contenders want him because he can help them win now and rebuilders want him because he can accelerate things and help them win later. Relievers are volatile has hell, for sure, but relievers as good as Diaz and under control as long as Diaz will cost a ton to acquire. More than the Yankees got for Andrew Miller, I’d say. But yeah, I’d take this dude on the Yankees no questions asked.

Bill asks: Why is Joey Wendle a Rookie WAR leader? Doesn’t this show a glaring weakness in WAR?

Wendle did hit .300/.354/.435 (116 wRC+) this season, you know. That’s not too far behind Gleyber (120 wRC+). If anything, it reinforces that WAR overrates multi-position guys to some degree. Wendle played second, short, third, left, and right this season. I don’t think it’s crazy that a good defender with Wendle’s offensive numbers out-WAR-ed Torres and Andujar at all. That said, Wendle turns 29 in April. Not counting guys from Japan and Cuba (and Korea), he’s the oldest player to get Rookie of the Year votes in at least a decade. This might’ve been his career year. I’d take Torres and Andujar over Wendle the next five years without a second thought. In 2018, it’s not unreasonable to argue Wendle was more valuable than those two because he was above-average offensively and far better defensively.

Eric asks: How many WAR does a 2018 Miguel Andujar earn if he’s a league-average defensive 3B? 1B? LF? DH?

Fun question! Position player WAR has several components. Offense, defense, and baserunning are straightforward. There’s also a positional adjustment, because some positions are more difficult than others. A 110 wRC+ shortstop is more valuable than a 110 wRC+ first baseman, for example. There’s also a (small) league adjustment, and a (large) adjustment that allows us to compare our player to a replacement level player rather than a league average player. Add all that together, divide by the runs-per-win factor, and you get WAR.

Here is our hypothetical league average defending Andujar at other positions. The only thing that changes across positions is the positional adjustment. Everything else stays the same.

	Offense	Defense	Baserunning	Position	League	Rep. Lvl	Runs/Win	WAR
Actual 2018	+20.3	-16	+1	+0.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+2.7
at C	+20.3	0	+1	+12.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+5.5
at 1B	+20.3	0	+1	-12.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+3.0
at 2B, 3B, CF	+20.3	0	+1	+2.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+4.5
at SS	+20.3	0	+1	+7.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+5.0
at LF, RF	+20.3	0	+1	-7.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+3.5
at DH	+20.3	0	+1	-17.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+2.4

The league adjustment, replacement level adjustment, and runs-per-win factor fluctuate each season the same way the league batting average fluctuates. They stay in the same ballpark but move a little in either direction. Like everyone else, Andujar would be most valuable behind the plate, then at short, then at third and the other two up-the-middle positions, then in the outfield corners, then at first base, then at DH. I should note that his 2018 positional adjustment was +0.5 rather than the full +2.5 for third base because he did DH some, and that takes a bite out of his positional value.

Derek asks: Can you re-structure contracts if the player and ownership agrees to it? I’m thinking of a Joey Votto trade scenario where you shorten the 5yr/125 remaining on the contract to 3/105. His power has diminished but he has elite contact skills, is a lefty, and is an OBP machine.

Never happening. Not a million years. Why would Votto give up $20M? Given the current free agent climate, giving up $20M to become a free agent two years earlier probably isn’t worth it for him. Not when he’ll be 38 in three years. Also, the MLBPA would flip. Ultimately, it’s not up to them, but they would lean on Votto hard. Remember when Alex Rodriguez was supposed to get traded to the Red Sox back in the day? That fell through because his contract was going to be restructured in such a way that lowered its present day value, and the union got involved. It’s one thing for a free agent to take less money to go to a specific team. It’s another for a player to reduce the value of his existing contract. That is not a precedent the MLBPA wants to set. Is it possible to restructure a contract as laid out in the question? Yes, it is. But there would be hell to pay.

Marc asks: In reading the article on Kluber as a trade candidate, it got me thinking: would the Indians listen to an offer for Kluber AND Carrasco if the Yanks offered Severino and Andujar plus maybe Gray and another piece. It lets them keep Torres and upgrade the rotation, while allowing Cleveland to compete next year. Of course, my trade proposal sucks.

I’m sure the Indians would listen if the Yankees put Andujar and Luis Severino on the table. (I don’t think Sonny Gray would move the needle much.) Cleveland would trade two years of Carlos Carrasco and three years of Corey Kluber for four years of Severino and five of Andujar. Ideally, the Yankees would add Carrasco and Kluber to Severino, not use one to replace him, but I don’t think building a package for those two around Severino would be crazy. What happens at third base? Who knows. The rotation would be upgraded though, even with Severino subtracted out, because Carrasco and Kluber are just as good as him if not better. Needless to say, I would not expect something like this to happen.

Adam asks: Would a framework around Andujar for Franchy Cordero work? Would free Hicks up for a trade for pitching, and then you can sign Machado.

Franchy is fun because he can do things like this:

I wouldn’t trade Andujar for him though. No way. The Yankees don’t need another high strikeout (39.1 K% in MLB and 28.3 K% in Triple-A) corner outfielder. I think Andujar will be the better hitter going forward and the more valuable player overall, even factoring in his defensive flaws (Franchy’s not exactly a Gold Glover himself). Signing Manny Machado and trading Andujar is an option for sure. I’d prefer someone better than Cordero though, especially if the next step is trading Aaron Hicks. I feel like you can find Franchy level production (with less risk) in free agency.

Dave asks: Do you think the Yankees will take a look at Yangervis Solarte as a fill in/utility guy if the Jays non-tender him. Switch hitter who can play multiple positions with some pop in the bat?

I don’t think so. It seems the clock has struck midnight on Solarte. He hit .226/.277/.378 (77 wRC+) this year and was sub-replacement level at -1 WAR. The versatility doesn’t help much when you’re not a good defender anywhere, which is what the defensive stats (and the eye test) say for Solarte. The Blue Jays declined his $5.5M option a few weeks ago and MLBTR projects a $5.9M salary through arbitration. Toronto didn’t decline the option only to pay him a higher salary through arbitration. Solarte’s getting non-tendered at the deadline in two weeks. A minor league contract? Sure. I definitely wouldn’t pencil him in as a Didi Gregorius replacement though.

There are 12 questions and eleven answers in this week’s mailbag. Remember to send all your mailbag related correspondence to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Chuck asks: Don’t hear much about Jameson Taillon. Any chance we could pry him away from the Pirates?

I don’t get the sense the Pirates are willing to trade Taillon, who is very good and under team control through 2022, but that is the kind of pitcher the Yankees should be targeting. Taillon, 26, had a 3.20 ERA (3.46 FIP) with good strikeout (22.8%), walk (5.9%), and ground ball (46.2%) rates in 191 innings this year. His four-seam fastball spin rate is comfortably above-average and he seems like a good candidate for the “hey, stop throwing so many sinkers” plan the Astros implemented with ex-Pirates Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton.

Pittsburgh traded (a lot) for Chris Archer at the deadline and they have Taillon and the sneaky good Trevor Williams under control for a while, so they have the makings of a good rotation front three. They traded Cole last year because he was getting expensive and they knew they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him long-term. The Pirates aren’t at that point with Taillon yet. They’re probably two years away from that point, really. I love the idea though. Taillon seems like a great target and, if the Pirates did make him available, I think you put Miguel Andujar on the table. Love the kid, but you have to give to get. I just don’t think Pittsburgh is ready to move Taillon yet.

Ryan asks: Who is this year’s Headley/Castro candidate of contract you’d like to shed without concerns of return? Or was that a rare case of AAA bursting at the seams?

I wouldn’t say I was eager to dump Starlin Castro’s contract last year. He’s an average player and useful, but also pretty replaceable, and if they could use him to get someone better, they should. And they did. Starlin wasn’t an albatross though. Anyway, the Yankees don’t really have that moveable bad contract player this year. The Yankees have six contracts on the books at the moment:

• Giancarlo Stanton: Nine years, $240M remaining
• Aroldis Chapman: Three years, $51.6M remaining
• Jacoby Ellsbury: Two years, $47.3M remaining
• Masahiro Tanaka: Two years, $45M remaining
• CC Sabathia: One year, $8M
• Brett Gardner: One year, $7.5M

Everyone wants the Yankees to move Ellsbury but I can’t see that happening at this point. Move Tanaka or Chapman? Eh. The Yankees need starters. Trade Tanaka and you wind up reinvesting that money in another starter who might not be as good as Tanaka. I suppose the Yankees could trade Chapman for a young pitcher, then sign a pricey closer to replace him. Can’t see it though. Chapman has a no-trade clause. Aside from Ellsbury, the Yankees don’t have any real bad contracts on the books. Perhaps that’ll change next year after they sign some free agents this winter.

Dan asks: Is it time to go full Evil Empire and sign both Harper and Machado? Then trade for deGrom. I think an offer that starts with Andujar, Frazier and Sheffield gets the Mets to listen. What do you think?

Man, the Yankees really should. How often do you get a chance to acquire a 26-year-old star like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado for nothing but cash (and a draft pick and international bonus money)? Basically never. This offseason there’s a chance to get two guys like that. It’ll never ever ever happen, but, if you were ever going to make a case for the Yankees going full Evil Empire and signing everyone, this is the offseason to do it. Sign Harper and sign Machado. And, if you do that, doesn’t it at least create the option of an Aaron Judge for pitching trade? Maybe build a package for both Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco around Judge? Not saying I’d do it! I’m just saying it’d open up the possibility.

Dan asks: What are your thoughts on a reunion with Brian McCann? Great clubhouse influence, lefty with power. Still a good defender. He could be a nice, cheap get.

This question was sent in before the news of Gary Sanchez’s shoulder surgery broke. I had McCann on my radar for my offseason plan, but, ultimately, I think he’s going to wind up with a starting job elsewhere. Even after a down season in which he hit .212/.301/.339 (82 wRC+) in 216 plate appearances around knee surgery, McCann’s track record is long enough that I think some team signs him to start. The Braves are supposedly looking for someone to share time with the right-handed hitting Tyler Flowers. McCann is from the area and he still lives there. Seems like a perfect for him, no? I love the idea of signing McCann. He’d give the team a nice safety net should Sanchez not be ready for Opening Day and he’d be a quality backup once Sanchez is healthy. I am all for it. I just think another team is going to give him starter money and starting catcher playing time.

Douglas asks (short version): What about Justin Bour? I know Bour wasn’t good last season with the Phillies but he was good as recently as 2017, would add left handed power to the line-up, would be a pick-up for 2 seasons and is projected to get around $5 million in arbitration, leaving plenty of money to chase Machado, Corbin, Harper, etc.

Hard pass on trading for Bour. Know why? Because the Phillies are almost certainly going to non-tender him at the end of the month. MLBTR projects a $5.2M salary next year and that is way too much for a first base only bench bat. If anything, the Phillies will non-tender him and re-sign him at a lower salary. Matt Adams was projected to made $4.6M last year and he can play (“play”) the outfield in addition to first base. If he got non-tendered, Bour is getting non-tendered. That’s why the Phillies got him so cheap in the first place. Everyone knew he was getting non-tendered after the season. The Marlins had no leverage. Bour would be fine as a first base pickup. Not great, not terrible. Just fine. If the Yankees can sign him and have him compete for the job with Greg Bird and Luke Voit, great. Do it. But don’t trade for him. Just wait a few weeks and he’ll be available for nothing but money.

Dom asks: One reason, to many, to not hand out mega-contracts to Harper/Machado is because it will leave less money to pay homegrown players when they are FAs. But, doesn’t it make more sense to pay Harper/Machado now, resulting in having more prime players under control for this window of contention, than eventually signing the homegrown guys when they’re older and not in their prime anymore?

Yuuup. Isn’t this one of the benefits of having productive young players? In addition to what they give you on the field, they’re also cheap and allow you to spend elsewhere. That’s one reason I despise the luxury tax plan. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino were all in their pre-arbitration years this past season. You only get so many years of those guys making six figures! Rather than take advantage, the Yankees capped their spending. Now Severino is arbitration-eligible and Judge and Sanchez will be in 2020. They’re still going to make far below what they’re worth, but the savings aren’t as great. This is the Yankees’ best chance to win a World Series. Right now. In 2018, 2019, and maybe 2020. Not four or five years from now. Right now, when their core guys are in their primes and cheap, like Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada were in the late-1990s. Windows close. Fast. At a time when the Yankees should be putting every last resource into winning a championship, they’re holding back.

Steve asks: So thoughts on Kipnis for fill in 2B? I know he had a down offensive season but he’d be a lefty who wouldn’t close much in lux tax, plays decent defense and think the Indians would be more open about moving his contract then say Kluber, etc.

Jason Kipnis has been really bad the last two years. Like, sneaky bad. I knew he didn’t put up numbers like he did in his prime, but he’s been even worse than I realized. Kipnis hit .232/.291/.414 (81 wRC+) last year and .230/.315/.389 (89 wRC+) this year. Yeesh. And he has $17M coming to him next season (his luxury tax hit is only $8.75M) assuming his 2020 option is bought out. I know Kipnis is a left-handed hitter and he might benefit from the short porch (plus the Yankees need left-handed hitters), and I know he can play the outfield too, but he’s been pretty bad two years running now. Can’t you sign Jed Lowrie at a similar luxury tax number and expect more production? Kipnis is a maybe, if anything. There’s no reason to think he’s gong anywhere right now. If some things fall through in free agency, the Yankees could think more seriously about Kipnis later in the offseason.

Juan asks: It certainly feels to me like there’s a personality element to Cashman’s Sonny Gray comments. Greg Bird was equally awful this season after being not good the previous year, but the Yankees still speak of him with a positive outlook. What do you think happened with Gray? Why can’t it be repaired?

Jonathan asks: What do you think is the benefit of Cashman being so candid about wanting to trade Gray? Don’t you think this diminishes his value, considering he’s giving no option to hold on to him if he doesn’t get enough in return? I don’t get why any GM would ever say this, really. What gives?

Going to lump these two questions together. It is pretty weird, isn’t it? It seems like Brian Cashman is going above and beyond to make it known not only that Sonny Gray is available, but also that he’s not wanted. “I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” he said the other day. That’s pretty harsh! Cashman is always quick to admit some players can play in New York and other can’t, but very rarely does he single someone out like this. I can’t ever remember it happening.

I sensed a lot of frustration with Gray this year. More than the usual “he’s not pitching well” frustration because we go that with guys every year. Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild, and Cashman all seemed frustrated with Gray. Maybe it was his preparation? His attitude? Whatever. Cashman has chosen to express that frustration this offseason and, honestly, I think everyone knew it existed. Instead of lying about it, he’s being honest. I don’t think Cashman would do it until he was certain he could get a good deal for Gray. He wouldn’t go out there and crush the guy if his market was non-existent. Supposedly there’s a good amount of interest. Teams still want Sonny despite this year’s performance and despite the GM taking the guy’s head off every chance he gets.

Neil asks: Any trades headlining Gleyber for a young controllable pitcher that you would consider and might make sense for both teams? (Yeah, I know, pitchers break….)

The one that immediately jumped to mind is Walker Buehler. Unless the Dodgers think Max Muncy at second base is a viable long-term strategy (nah), they need a second baseman. Hell, they might need a shortstop. Corey Seager is coming back from Tommy John surgery and it’s always been a bit unclear how long he’ll stay at short anyway because he’s so big (6-foot-4 and 220 lbs.). The Dodgers have a need for a middle infielder.

Buehler was the most impressive young pitcher I saw this past season and it’s not even close. It was Buehler (big gap) Jack Flaherty (enormous gap) everyone else. Buehler threw 137.1 innings with a 2.62 ERA (3.04 FIP) with excellent strikeout (27.9%), walk (6.8%), and ground ball (50.0%) numbers this year, and he was real good in the postseason too. The stuff is electric.

I feel like both teams would say no to Gleyber-for-Buehler. The Yankees will want to keep their budding star middle infielder and the Dodgers will want to keep their homegrown budding ace. But that’s the idea. If you’re going to trade Torres, you have to get a Buehler type (or a Flaherty type) back. The Mets wouldn’t be unreasonable to ask for Torres in a Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard trade, and of course the Phillies wouldn’t give up Aaron Nola without getting Gleyber. There are a few pitchers out there I’d part with Torres to acquire. Not many though.

Jon asks: Schwarber seems to be a perpetual trade rumor. What would it realistically take to get him and would he improve the team, assuming no Bryce Harper? Could a package centered around Sonny Gray and Jonathan Loaisiga work, since they’re both traded in your offseason plan?

Schwarber makes more sense for the Yankees now than he did back in 2016, when they apparently tried to get him at the deadline. He’s never played first base but he’s going to wind up there eventually, so the Yankees could move him there and have him split time at first and DH, and be the emergency third catcher. They also need a left-handed bat and Schwarber’s pull heavy left-handed swing would fit well in Yankee Stadium.

This past season Schwarber hit .238/.356/.467 (115 wRC+) with 26 homers, and over the last two years he has a .225/.336/.467 (109 wRC+) line in nearly 1,000 plate appearances. That … kinda sucks? For a bat only guy, yeah, it kinda sucks. After all that hype and all those rejected trades, that’s it? Schwarber is young (26 in March) and cheap (projected $3.1M in 2019) and there’s always a chance he’ll improve, for sure. I don’t know that Gray and Loaisiga will get it done — Theo Epstein is said to love Schwarber — but I don’t know how much higher I’d go either.

Michael asks: Read recently that MLB will eventually expand, with places like Portland, Charlotte and a location in Mexico as possibilities. But is MLB ignoring the lack of enthusiasm for baseball in Tampa and Miami? What’s the possibility of those two franchises moving to one of the locations being considered for expansion?

I worry about this. MLB is stuck in Miami because that $600M ballpark is only seven years old. Tampa is a different story. The Rays have been trying to get a new ballpark for years now — the most recent chatter has them moving to a park on the other side of the bay in Ybor City — but can baseball work there? Doesn’t MLB have to answer that question before building a new park? Florida would seem to be the perfect place for baseball. It’s warm all year and there are a ton of players from the state, plus there are people from all over Latin America as well. It seems like it should work. It hasn’t. There are other baseball hungry markets out there. I would hope MLB would at least consider relocation before breaking ground another new park that will sit half empty 81 times a year.