We’ve got nine questions in this week’s mailbag. Make sure you send any questions or comments to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Stephen asks: Wouldn’t Scooter Gennett make a great trade target? He would provide some balance to the lineup and allow Gleyber to slide over to SS.

Gennett would be a great trade target. He hit .310/.357/.490 (125 wRC+) with 23 home runs this past season. When he hit .295/.342/.531 (123 wRC+) with 27 homers* last year, it was fair to wonder if he’d ever do it again because there was nothing in his track record to suggest he could be that type of hitter. Well, Gennett did do it again. The 2019 season is his final year of team control, which means one of three things will happen:

1. The Reds will trade him.
2. The Reds will sign him to an extension.
3. The Reds will keep him and lose him for nothing as a free agent.

Don’t sleep on No. 3! That is exactly what happened with Zack Cozart. Cozart hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 home runs and Gold Glove defense at shortstop in 2017, and Cincinnati didn’t trade him or even make him the qualifying offer. They lost him to free agency after the season and did not even get a draft pick in return. I would imagine the Reds learned from the Cozart stuff and won’t repeat it with Gennett, but we’ll see.

Anyway, Gennett has now put together back-to-back strong seasons at the plate and he’s also played some third base and corner outfield in addition to his usual second base. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then move him elsewhere as necessary. He’s a real good fit. The Reds desperately need pitching. The Yankees won’t trade Justus Sheffield for Gennett. Would they take one year of Sonny Gray? Seems unlikely to me. What about some combination of Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, Mike King, Luis Cessa, and Domingo German? Maybe two of the five plus another prospect? Remember, my trade proposal sucks.

* That is way too many home runs for a guy named Scooter.

Many asked: What about re-signing Neil Walker?

Lots of Walker questions this week in the wake of the Gregorius Tommy John surgery news. I thought there was a chance the Yankees would consider re-signing Walker even before Didi got hurt, and now that they need another middle infielder, a reunion seems more likely. It’s hard to see Walker getting a starting job at this point. A utility role seems to be his ticket to stay in the big leagues. Another one-year deal at $4M or so seems likely no matter where he signs. That’s the going rate for this role.

Walker had an up-and-down season and hit .219/.309/.354 (81 wRC+) in 398 plate appearances overall. He was much better when playing every day than as a part-timer. Perhaps he’ll be more comfortable in a part-time role going forward now that he’s experienced it? As for signing him to play second, it could work, I just worry about his defense. Walker doesn’t have much range and that’s kinda important at second. He does seem to have a knack for timely hits though, doesn’t he? That’s nice. I’m open to a Walker reunion. He wouldn’t be my Plan A as Didi’s replacement, but he would be in the mix.`

Ryan asks: How soon do we look for the Yankees to buyout Judge’s arb years and get a long term deal locked in? Is this winter too soon? Could next winter be a little late?

Honestly, I am totally cool with going year-to-year with Aaron Judge. He is an incredible player. Top ten in the world in my opinion. Plus he’s a great dude and a tremendous ambassador for the game. He’s going to represent the organization well and he’s someone you want young players looking up to, I think. The thing is, the Yankees have already have Judge under team control through his age 30 season, and how does he age at that size? He might be a first baseman/DH with a 33% strikeout rate by time he hits free agency.

What does an extension look like anyway? At his pace, Judge might get $50M total in his three arbitration years ($10M, $16M, $24M?). Doesn’t seem crazy to me. He already has a Rookie of the Year, an MVP runner-up, two All-Star Games, and a home run title. Would six years and $100M work right now? Something like $2M, $8M, $12M, $18M, $25M, $30M with the final $5M coming as part of a signing bonus/option buyout? That buys out two free agent years and takes Judge through his age 32 season. It’s worth considering, if you’re the Yankees. I don’t think going year-to-year with Judge would be unreasonable.

Ben asks: What is Ronald Torreyes’s role with the team going forward? He seemed to be more popular among Girardi’s people than with Boone’s. I like Toe and think he can be a good backup infielder but I’m not sure the team feels the same way. Is he back next year, in Triple-A, or let go?

I think Torreyes will be back next year as the up-and-down reserve infielder at worst. MLBTR projects a $900,000 salary next season and that shouldn’t be an issue for the Yankees. Signing a backup infielder in free agency probably costs you $1M to $2M, and that guy won’t be able to be sent to Triple-A. Torreyes has an option remaining and can go to Triple-A. I think he’s a great utility guy. I wouldn’t want Torreyes playing every day because he has no power, he doesn’t walk, and he doesn’t steal bases. He can play all around the infield and contact bomb pitchers. That’s about it. That works wonderfully as a utility guy. I know Torreyes is incredibly popular in the clubhouse. Sending him down this season was a front office decision, not a coaching staff decision. I think Torreyes will be in the mix for a bench job again going into next year. I don’t see the Yankees cutting ties this winter.

Anonymous asks: Brandon Belt. Should the Yanks target him? He would improve the defense, gets on base and lefty bat plays well in YS. Or are age and strikeouts a concern here?

I was thinking about Belt a few weeks ago. He’s had a bunch of injury problems over the years (multiple concussions, broken fingers from hit-by-pitches, a knee problem this year) and has only played 150 games once in the last five years, but he also has seasons with a 140 wRC+, a 132 wRC+, and a 136 wRC+. This past season he hit .253/.342/.414 (107 wRC+) with 14 homers, 23.5% strikeouts, and 10.7% walks in 112 games around knee trouble and an appendectomy.

Belt turns 31 in April (where does the time go?) and he has three years remaining on his contract at $16M per season. He is pretty much the player the Yankees hoped Greg Bird would become. Left-handed with power and walks at first base. Buster Posey had hip surgery a few weeks ago and he’s a soon to be 32-year-old catcher with a ton of innings on his legs. More first base time is in his future, inevitably. That could make Belt expendable, especially if the Giants want to shed some cash to get their luxury tax situation straight. Belt’s not perfect, but he could be available, and the Yankees should kick the tires if so.

Jim asks: How about a Sonny Gray/Joe Panik exchange?

I don’t think the framework is unreasonable. Panik has been hurt and kinda crummy the last three years, hitting .262/.325/.383 (90 wRC+) while starting 340 of 486 possible games from 2016-18. He has two years of control remaining whereas Gray has one. The Giants need pitching — the Giants need pretty much everything — and the biggest question is probably whether San Francisco is willing to trade two years of Panik for one year of Gray when they’re not certain to contend in 2019. The Yankees did ask for Panik in Andrew Miller trade talks a few years, so they’ve had interest in the past, plus he’d give them a contact heavy lefty bat to plug in at second base while Gregorius is injured. I think the Yankees would do it in a second. I’m not sure about the Giants.

Michael asks: Sonny Gray to the Giants for…Tony Watson? Watson is a poor man’s Britton, and while Britton is clearly better, Watson for 1/$3.5MM > Britton for 3/$50MM. Giants are gonna need arms and Gray will benefit from a big NL park. Sound good, or should the Yankees aim higher in terms of trade targets?

As with Panik, I think Gray-for-Watson would depend more on the Giants than the Yankees. I think the Yankees would do that in a heartbeat. They did have interest in Watson last winter and he’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. Couldn’t the Giants do better though? Watson has a very complicated contract that could max out at $14M from 2019-20. That’s still a really great price for a lefty who had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) with 27.6% strikeouts last season. Given the general demand for bullpen help these days, I feel like the Giants could fetch something better than one year of Gray for Watson. This seems like it’d be a really great get for the Yankees. I’d take Watson before Panik.

Keane asks: With a high strike out rate, low walk rate, but gives up a lot of hard contact is there any reason to think Corbin wouldn’t be Michael Pineda 2.0?

Fair question! Patrick Corbin throws a ton of sliders as well, like Pineda, and he also doesn’t have much of a changeup, like Pineda. Two key differences between the two. One, Corbin is left-handed and quality lefties are hard to find. And two, Corbin throws a sinker and is more of a true ground ball pitcher than Pineda. Pineda did post some surprisingly high ground ball rates with the Yankees (47.9% from 2015-17), but Corbin hasn’t had a sub-48.5% ground ball rate since returning from Tommy John surgery a few years ago. I don’t think Corbin is an ace and I get a feeling everyone expecting him to be an ace will end up disappointed. I do think he’s very good though, comfortably above-average, and the best starter on the free agent market. He’d undoubtedly make the Yankees better.

Chris asks: If Mike is right and the Yanks don’t offer Betances a longer-term extension, and assuming he stays healthy and has another year like this year, do they make a qualifying offer to him next year? The qualifying offer is set to be $17.9 million this offseason, but with some of the big dollar contracts likely to be awarded with this free agent class, I could see it getting well over $18 million – maybe approaching or even topping $20 million. Am I wrong?

The qualifying offer should jump over $18M next offseason, yeah. If Dellin Betances has another typical Dellin Betances season, meaning a sub-3.00 ERA with an insane strikeout total as a high-leverage guy, I think the Yankees would give him the qualifying offer. Chances are Betances would not beat $18M annually on his next contract, but I do think he’d net more than $18M total across multiple years, probably much more. He could get upwards of $40M on a multi-year deal. Next offseason figures to be his best chance to cash in big. I don’t see Betances getting cute and accepting the qualifying offer, taking the sky high one year salary, then jumping into free agency. It’s risky. He’ll go for the big multi-year contract instead. With a typical Dellin year, I think he gets the qualifying offer, yeah.

It has been an exceedingly busy year for Mike, due to his non-stop work here and his commitments over at CBS, so I figured that I’d try my hand at tackling your mailbag questions this week. As always, you can continue to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. Let’s do it to it.

Many asks: So what happens with Aaron Boone now?

As cliché as it may be to say this, I cannot help but feel that Boone is quite lucky that George Steinbrenner isn’t in charge nowadays. The Yankees did not execute well-enough to win a couple of close games, and the blowout loss was inexcusable on every level – but the manager’s job is to put his team in the best position to win, and Boone failed to do so in back-to-back games. And he failed spectacularly, too. I don’t think The Boss would have brought him back for another season.

With the current administration, however, I would be utterly shocked if Boone wasn’t back next season. Cashman and Co. clearly love his ability to manage interpersonal relationships in the clubhouse, and they knew the risks of hiring a manager straight out of the announcer’s booth. I’m sure that they’re disappointed, and I’m sure that Boone’s exit interview will focus quite a bit on his decision-making – but he’ll be on the Yankees bench next year, with no adjustments to his leash.

Segundo asks: Seeing Luke Voit playing with all this swagger is very refreshing. Can’t remember the last Yankee who played like this and was productive (Ricky Henderson?). I think he should get the first base job from day 1 next year. Thoughts? What do you think his numbers will look like if he gets 600 plate appearances

I’m a fan of Voit’s swagger, too, but I think you’re underselling this team as a whole. It comes in all shapes and sizes throughout the roster, but Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, CC Sabathia, and Ronald Torreyes all have quite a bit of swagger. Voit stands out, though, because he came out of nowhere with it – and he looks kind of like Billy Butler.

And I’d agree that he’s the best in-house option for first base as of today; I don’t think it’s possible for me to be more down on Greg Bird than I am right now. I wouldn’t expect Voit to do anything remotely close to what he did this year, though. I think the best-case scenario is probably something along the lines of what Justin Smoak did this year – .250/.350/.460 with 25 home runs or so. I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Kelan asks: You mentioned potentially upgrading the corner infield defense this offseason. Outside of maybe the obvious, sign Machado and either trade Andujar or maybe try him at first, what do you see as the most realistic options?

I’ll answer this with two caveats. The first is obvious – I’m not Mike. I’m sure that our ideas would be similar, given the available options, but it’s possible he’d go in an entirely different direction. And the second caveat? I’d give Andujar at least one more season to work on his defense. The tools are there, and he’ll be 24 for the entire 2019 season; I don’t think moving several pieces around is a necessity.

That being said, I’m not sure that there’s a great free agent option for the hot corner outside of Machado. As of this morning, these are the top-five non-Machado third basemen that are slated for free agency:

• Adrian Beltre
• Josh Donaldson
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Jed Lowrie
• Mike Moustakas

I think Beltre (nearly 40 and may be retiring), Gonzalez (more of a utility player), and Lowrie (nearly 35 and best-suited for second) can be ruled out right away. And I don’t see Moustakas as a clear enough upgrade defensively to make a move. Donaldson is interesting, though. I’m not incredibly enthusiastic about his age or his injuries these last two seasons, but his defense is still strong and he’s a helluva hitter. If the price was right, I think he’s the sort of player that you can make think about moving Andujar for.

Nicholas asks: This may be a little pedantic on my part, but isn’t Kahnle’s problems more due to a lack of separation between his fastball and changeup? Last year he was throwing around 99 with a 90 changeup-this year it looks like his fastball regressed to around 95 but his changeup stayed the same. I think a lack of separation with his changeup is an easier fix than expecting the fastball to return.

The separation between his fastball and change-up actually didn’t change all that much. Check it out:

Kahnle’s velocity was down across the board. The difference between his fastball and change-up was 7.4 MPH in 2017 and 6.7 MPH this year. That’s certainly enough that you can’t just hand-wave it away, but I’m not sure that it’s enough to draw anything conclusive from. What stands out the most for me in terms of his pitches is actually the distribution. In 2017, Kahnle threw 65.6% fastballs, 23.9% change-ups, and 10.5% sliders; those numbers this year were 54.3%, 40.3%, and 5.4%, respectively.

Batters hit .383 (!) with a .660 SLG (!!) against his fastball, so there was definitely something going on. The vertical and horizontal movement on his fastball were virtually unchanged; the spin rate did drop from 2287 RPM to 2223 – but that’s not a massive difference. Putting all of those factors together, though, might lead you to your answer.

Consider this, though: Kahnle’s walk rate doubled in 2018, from 6.6% to 14.0%. He was pitching with a lot of base-runners, and most every pitcher is worse out of the stretch. I think that may’ve been his biggest issue.

Scott asks: Hey guys, thanks again for all of your work. The yanks have long since avoided signing players to extensions before free agency (with some exception), but I wanted to get your thoughts on a Torres extension. It might rub players like Judge, Didi, and Sanchez the wrong way, but those guys have different circumstances (Judge is under control until his 30’s, Sanchez underperformed this year, Didi has a replacement in Torres). Most folks believe Torres is a bonafide above average starter at a middle infield position who I believe the yanks have under control for 4 more seasons (maybe 3). Do you think it would be crazy to offer him 6 years at 10mm per? Kingery signed for 6/42, I assume that sets the baseline. Curious as to what you guys think, thanks again.

When Scott Kingery signed his deal, he was a 23-year-old prospect that had never played in the majors; Gleyber Torres is a 21-year-old player coming off of an excellent rookie season. I think that comparison may have worked six months ago, but it doesn’t work that well now. Torres may not be a completely known commodity now, but he’s proven to be – at worst – a solid regular at the highest level.

I think you’d have to look at the deals of players that signed after a strong rookie season; that list includes names like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons. If we average their contracts, we get a baseline of 6.7 years and $42.75 MM. Round that to 7-years and $43 MM, and the Yankees would be crazy to say no – but all of those deals were inked between 2008 and 2015, and prices have gone up.

I don’t think it would be crazy to buy out Torres’s remaining team control years (and tack on some post-team control option years) for something like $10 MM a year. He could fail to improve a lick over the next half-dozen years and he’d still be worth a contract of that nature. I’d be all over it.

Luke asks: How about Eric Kratz having himself an NLDS series for Milwaukee. If we lose to the Sox, what other notable ex-Yankees do we have to root for in the rest of the playoffs?

The championship series have been set at this point, with the Red Sox vs. the Astros in the AL, and the Dodgers vs. the Brewers in the NL. Going team-by-team, we have:

• Boston – Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce (lest we forget his 12 game cameo in 2012)
• Houston – Brian McCann
• Los Angeles – Rich Hill (5.1 IP in 2014)
• Milwaukee – Erik Kratz, Curtis Granderson

Tom asks: What do u prefer and what do you think the yankees prefer of the 3 options for LF: 1. Sign a FA 2. Clint Frazier 3. Stanton becomes regular LFer, Andujar to DH, sign Machado thus solving LF & 3b defense

I think the Yankees would prefer two, or the first portion of three; that is, Stanton becomes the everyday left-fielder. I don’t know if I’m being pragmatic, pessimistic, or just completely out there, but I’m not too sure that they’re planning on making a splash on the position player side of things. Pitching feels like a much bigger priority, given the paucity of in-house options under team control.

And I’m a fan of the Yankees spending money, so I would love to see Machado manning the hot corner next season. That would mean moving Andujar to another position (first base or DH), but I’m fine with that for a player of Machado’s quality. But I also wouldn’t mind the Yankees signing Bryce Harper, sticking with Stanton at DH (or keeping that revolving door going), and giving Andujar more time to figure things out as I said above.

Only nine questions in the mailbag this week because, frankly, the postseason is wearing me out over at CBS. The League Division Series round is always the busiest. There are many games! Anyway, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can.

Ben Doyle asks: I love Miguel Andujar, but what about using a third base opener in the Wild Card game? Start your favorite defensive third basemen, bat him 8th, and pinch-hit Andujar their very first at bat. Two or three innings of better defense, at the cost of slightly delaying Andujar’s plate appearances.

It’s an interesting idea. I’ve seen fans (of all teams) float similar ideas. Prior to the Wild Card Game, I saw some A’s fans suggest they should start Matt Joyce at catcher instead of Jonathan Lucroy, so in case Lucroy’s lineup spot came up in the first inning, they’d have a better hitter at the plate. Lucroy then goes in for defense in the bottom of the first regardless of whether Joyce hits. Also, in the NL, there’s talk that road teams should “start” the previous day’s starting pitcher, so if that lineup spot comes up in the top of the first you can pinch-hit without losing your actual starting pitcher. Whoever you’re planning to start that day then comes out of the bullpen for the bottom of the first.

Anyway, using a third base opener for Andujar in one specific game is an interesting idea. You couldn’t do it all the time. The problem here is roster space. The Yankees carried eight relievers and three bench players pretty much all season. Do you burn one of those three bench players for maybe two innings of defense at the start of the game? This seems like one of those things that would work much better in September or in a Wild Card Game with a deep bench. Start Neil Walker at third, then pinch-hit Miguel Andujar and get him his three at-bats, then put Adeiny Hechavarria in for defense late. Fun idea. I’m not sure how practical it is.

Greg asks: I noticed old friend Russell Martin is being paid 20 million next year the last year of his contract, while his AAV 16.4 million. If he were to be traded and cash was attached to the deal (similar to the McCann deal), could the AAV actually go into the negatives? Or does it just stop at 0.

It stops at zero. There was some confusion about this a few years ago. I don’t remember if it was the Vernon Wells trade or the Alfonso Soriano trade, but the math for one of those deals worked out in such a way that it appeared the Yankees would receive a credit against the luxury tax. It doesn’t work like that though. It just counted as zero against the luxury tax. Martin is pretty terrible nowadays. Soon-to-be 36-year-old catchers usually aren’t the most productive bunch. The Blue Jays would have to pay down a lot of his contract to get me interested. Pretty much all of it, in fact. And even then I’m not sure.

Paul asks: With strikeouts and home runs up (so fewer balls in play), and improved positioning, is defense less important than ever?

In theory, yes. There are fewer balls in play right now than ever before. This season 65.2% of all plate appearances resulted in a ball in play. Ten years ago it was 70.3%. The further back you go, the more balls in play. Fewer balls in play means fewer opportunities for the defense, so, in that sense, defense isn’t as important as it once was. That said, there are still a lot of balls in play. Also players are hitting the ball harder than ever before. They’re bigger and stronger and it shows. So there may be fewer balls in play, but the ball that are put in play are somewhat harder to defend. Defense will never not be important. It may be easier to hide a bad defender than ever before though.

Nicholas asks: What do you think Luis Cessa’s role will be next year. I believe he is out of options after this season.

Cessa will be out of options next season, meaning the Yankees can’t send him to Triple-A without putting him on waivers. Who knows, he might clear. I like Cessa more than most and, at this point, the Yankees should just stick him in short relief. One inning at a time and let him air it out. Starting and long relieving isn’t really working. Nothing that happens with Cessa this offseason would surprise me. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets traded, or if he gets designated for assignment, or he stays with the Yankees and gets a look in Spring Training. Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, and A.J. Cole will all be out of options next season and are kinda in the same boat. Something will have to give this winter.

Eric asks: Does Daniel Murphy make sense for the Yankees as a free agent option? You sign him to play first base and if the either Torres or Andujar have a sophomore slump, you would potentially move Murphy back to one of those positions.

He might. Murphy is worth a longer discussion outside a mailbag setting and after the postseason. At this point he’s a bat-only guy. He’s been a bad defensive player for years and now he’s barely mobile after microfracture knee surgery. Murphy can hit righties (130 wRC+) but not so much lefties (51 wRC+), he can’t run, and he can’t really play defense. He’ll turn 34 in April and we’re getting dangerously close to platoon DH status here. That said, Murphy can still hit righties and he never strikes out (11.4%), so there’s some utility here. Squint your eyes and you can see some versatility. If you’re willing to live with bad defense, yes, Murphy could be a fit next season.

Geoff asks: Do you think MLB might revisit the playoff structure after this season? Both the Yanks and the A’s finished well ahead of the Indians, yet they both have to play the WC while Cleveland gets an auto bid to the DS because their division is awful. The Indians got to repeatedly beat up on the worst teams in the AL, while the yanks and As had to deal with 2 other teams in their same division of Cleveland quality or better (Rays and Red Sox; Mariners and Astros).

Nah. MLB loves the current playoff format and, personally, I love the Wild Card Game. I hate when the Yankees have to play in it, but, overall, the Wild Card Game is a blast. Is it fair? No, not really. It’s not just the Yankees and Athletics this year either. The 98-win Pirates had to play the 97-win Cubs in the 2015 NL Wild Card Game. I am pro-Wild Card Game and, ideally, MLB would reseed everyone after the regular season. Five teams in each league make the postseason and the fourth and fifth best teams get the wild card spots regardless of division. That’d be great. That gives every team a reason to keep playing hard to rack up wins. The Indians were able to coast all September because their division was so bad. The winner-take-all Wild Card Game is a ratings bonanza and it’s not going away.

Justin asks: If the Padres make Wil Myers available should NYY be interested for him at 1B? What’s a comparable trade package?

The Padres are going to trade Myers soon, I think. He belongs at first base and they just locked up Eric Hosmer to that monster contract, so the position is blocked. Also, San Diego signed Myers to an extension a few years ago and look at his annual salaries:

• 2019: $5.5M
• 2020: $22.5M
• 2021: $22.5M
• 2022: $22.5M
• 2013: $20M club option ($1M buyout)

Yeah, I’d bet on Myers being moved before Opening Day 2020. Myers was the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year and I feel like we still don’t know who he is as a player. He hit .253/.318/.446 (107 wRC+) this year. He hit .243/.328/.464 (107 wRC+) last year. He’s a career .253/.328/.439 (109 wRC+) hitter in over 2,600 big league plate appearances. Is that it? Myers turns 28 in December. When’s the step forward coming? Or is this as good as it gets? I’m inclined to stay away here.

David asks: If the Yankees were to utilize openers next season, who on the current roster would be best? My guess would be that Betances would be best suited, have him pitch an inning exactly every other day (or two innings every three days). That way he would never lose his rhythm and have a set schedule.

Dellin Betances did jump out to me. It’ll depend what the rest of the bullpen looks like, of course, but sending Betances out there to face the other team’s best hitters in the first inning every other day or once every three days or whatever seems pretty appealing. That said, if Dellin is the team’s best reliever again like he was this season, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to keep him away from high-leverage situations in the late innings.

Joe asks: Do you think Clint Frazier is a candidate for Arizona Fall League?

He has too much service time. My unofficial math has him at one year and 12 days of big league service time and the Arizona Fall League limit is one year. There are injury exemptions from time to time, usually for pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If Clint could get an exemption, great! I’m not sure he’s healthy though. Frazier was shut down with his latest setback on September 5th. The Arizona Fall League season begins Tuesday. I’m not sure he can go from suffering a setback and being shut down to ready for game action in a month.

We’ve got 12 questions in this week’s mailbag, the final mailbag of the 2018 regular season. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you can send your mailbag questions each week.

Robert asks: Starting pitcher for the Wild Card? How about the one least likely to implode in early on. Any stats on who most often throws a scoreless 1st and 2nd inning? Probably no Didi to bail us out again this year.

The other day Aaron Boone mentioned the Yankees might only let their starting pitcher go through the lineup one time in the Wild Card Game, even if he’s effective. I’m not sure that’ll happen — if the starter goes nine up, nine down with five strikeouts, are they really taking him out? — but the Yankees have made it pretty clear they’ll be ready to go to their bullpen at the first sign of trouble. Anyway, here are the numbers (ERA/FIP/opponent’s OPS+):

	Happ	Severino	Tanaka
1st inning	3.90/4.49/76	4.22/3.31/104	4.00/3.75/103
2nd inning	2.40/3.22/76	2.25/2.37/50	2.67/3.12/75
1st & 2nd innings	3.15/3.86/76	3.23/2.85/78	3.33/3.44/90
1st time thru lineup	3.03/4.29/92	2.60/2.74/79	2.70/3.12/87

Reminder that the first inning is the highest scoring inning, historically. That’s the only inning in which each team’s best hitters are guaranteed to hit. If the Yankees are only looking for someone to get through the lineup one time, it has to be Severino. And not just because of the numbers in the table. Tell him to air it out for nine batters and you’re getting a 100 mph heater and a razor blade slider. Severino can dominate anyone. The Yankees have to piece together 27 outs in the Wild Card Game. My guess is the bullpen get the majority of those 27 outs.

Joe asks: This might be a little extreme, any chance if Yanks make it to the ALDS, they leave Chapman off the roster and ready him for the ALCS? Don’t remember a time he looked good against the Red Sox. Maybe if they keep him on the roster, he doesn’t pitch at Fenway even in a save opportunity?

There’s no chance the Yankees will leave Aroldis Chapman off the postseason roster, in any round against any opponent. Chapman has really struggled against the Red Sox — he’s allowed 16 runs in 16 innings against the BoSox while with the Yankees — but he has the ability to dominate any lineup. You roll with your best players in the postseason and trust them to do what’s needed to win. What’s the alternative here? Tommy Kahnle? Sonny Gray? Yeah, no. Chapman’s recent history against the Red Sox is ugly and I’m not sure I’ll feel comfortable with him on the mound in a close game against the Red Sox, but he is far too good and far too talented to avoid in the postseason because of 16 bad innings spread across two and a half years.

Joe asks: Do you think that the presence of Yankees scouts with the Marlins could make an offseason swap of Sanchez for Realmuto a possibility? How would a trade look?

The Marlins would have to kick in more. I’ve gotten a lot of “why not trade Gary Sanchez for J.T. Realmuto?” questions this year and most suggest a package headlined by Sanchez for Realmuto. That is completely backwards to me. The Marlins would have to give up a package headlined by Realmuto for Sanchez. Consider …

• Sanchez is two years younger.
• Sanchez is under team control through 2022. Realmuto is under control through 2020.
• Realmuto’s breakout season at age 27 in 2018 (.278/.342/.487/128 wRC+/+4.8 WAR) is no better than Gary’s age 24 season in 2017 (.278/.345/.531/129 wRC+/+4.4 WAR).
• Aside from his caught stealing rate, the defensive numbers on Realmuto aren’t good at all.

I have no interest in selling low on Sanchez to buy high on Realmuto. Realmuto’s really good and I don’t have any reason to believe he won’t continue to be really good the next few years. But Sanchez is younger, is under control longer, and every bit as talented (if not more). If Gary were on some other team right now, I’d get a zillion questions asking whether the Yankees should buy low, and I’d say absolutely yes. Keep Sanchez. Don’t trade him for the flavor of the week. You’re never going to win anything if you cut bait the first time young players struggle.

Matt asks: Is it worth it to dismiss Josh Bard after this season and hire a former manager to be a bench coach? With bullpen management being a clear weakness for Boone perhaps an experienced manager can offer some help.

From what I understand, Josh Bard is very highly regarded within baseball. He’s considered a rising star in the coaching and managerial ranks. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we hear him connected to some managerial openings this winter and see him possibly go for interviews. Some of Aaron Boone’s bullpen management is dumb. The A.J. Cole thing is ridiculous. But, generally speaking, Boone uses guys in the right spots, in my opinion. David Robertson is the fireman. Dellin Betances faces the other team’s best hitters. That sorta stuff. It’s up to Boone to improve his improve his bullpen management. It’s not on the bench coach. Boone has to learn and gain experience. Besides, I suspect the front office has a lot of input — let’s call it “providing guidance” — into bullpen moves. I’m not sure a veteran bench coach would change much, if at all.

Craig asks: Paul Goldschmidt. Some speculation that the D-backs could deal him over the winter – do you think the Yankees would/should make a play for him? What would it take?

Next season is the last season on Goldschmidt’s contract (it’s a no-brainer $14.5M club option year) and he’ll hit free agency at 32, which makes things dicey. He’s obviously great — Goldschmidt is hitting .291/.390/.538 (146 wRC+) with 33 homers and Gold Glove caliber defense this year — but paying big dollars for a first baseman’s age 32+ seasons isn’t something teams are eager to do these days. That has led to speculation about a trade his offseason.

If the Diamondbacks are open to trading Goldschmidt, the Yankees absolutely should make a play for him. He’s a dominant player who is a big upgrade at first base. I like Luke Voit, he’s been awesome, but I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to replace him with Goldschmidt. The Yankees have a lot of players in the prime of their careers or entering the prime of their careers. Anything they can do to increase their odds of winning the World Series in the short-term is worthwhile. The time to go all-in is right now. If not now, then when?

In a perfect world the Yankees would build a trade package around Greg Bird and Chance Adams, but I’m not sure that’s realistic. I’d want Justus Sheffield as part of a package if I were the D’Backs. I don’t think that’s unreasonable for a player as good as Goldschmidt, even one year of him. I’m not convinced Arizona will trade him. I think they’re more likely to keep him and try to win in 2019. If they’re open to trading Goldschmidt, the Yankees have to at least check in. Elite players are always worth acquiring.

Luke asks: All this talk about 10+ HRs out of the ’18 Yanks, and the next closest is Tyler Austin at 8 – womp. What about how many HRs have we gotten out of each position – has to be 20 per position, right? Any records close to being broken there?

I don’t know how to look this up historically, so I don’t know whether the Yankees are approaching (or setting) any records here, but it is pretty insane how much the home run production is spread out. The Yankees have not only gotten 20+ homers from every position except one (left field), they’ve gotten 20+ homers from every lineup spot except one (ninth). The numbers:

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That is pretty crazy. Can Andrew McCutchen (or whoever ends up playing left field) hit three home runs this weekend? Can the ninth place hitter sock one? I can’t imagine many teams throughout baseball history have received 20+ homers from each position and/or each lineup spot.

Zeke asks: What’s your opinion on bad contract swap for Ellsbury and Samardzija? Maybe Yankees can throw in one low level prospect to make it work?

I think we’re heading into the third straight offseason with “Ellsbury for Samardzija?” questions. Jacoby Ellsbury was hurt all season and a non-factor. Didn’t play a single game. Jeff Samardzija pitched to a 6.25 ERA (5.44 FIP) in 44.2 innings around injuries. They both have two years left on their contracts and the money is similar enough ($43M vs. $36M) that it shouldn’t be a significant obstacle in a trade.

It boils down to this: What reclamation project do you want, the 34-year-old starter or the 35-year-old outfielder? I honestly don’t know. I feel like Ellsbury is more likely to help you as a fourth outfielder than Samardzija is as a starter or even as a reliever at this point. Plus Ellsbury just had hip surgery. If his rehab carries over into early next season, the Yankees collect insurance money to offset his salary, and the savings might be worth more than whatever Ellsbury or Samardzija gives you on the field. I dunno. Two bad options here.

Frank asks: Do you have any interest in a Robbie Cano reunion for the first base job? If so, how much of Cano’s contract would Seattle have to eat to make the deal plausible?

Nah. Robinson Cano is forever cool with me, but he’s going to turn 36 years old in October, and there’s still five (!) years and $120M remaining on his contract. It’s all downside too. Cano’s best years are behind him and you’d be acquiring his heavy decline years, the years the Yankees wanted to avoid when they reportedly capped their offer at seven years. The Mariners would have to turn him into what, a $5M a year player for the Yankees to even consider it? Even then, do you want to pay $5M a year for his age 36-40 seasons? Nah. stay away from the declining dudes on the wrong side of 35, especially when there are multiple years remaining on their contract.

Andrew asks: Looking at your recent bullpen post. Why not bring back Andrew Miller as a FA? Let Britton walk and sign Miller who should be a cheaper? We already know he can handle NY and would give us insurance if/when Betances leaves after next year.

I suspect we’re going to hear a lot about a potential Miller reunion this winter. It’s worth a longer discussion outside a mailbag setting (and after the postseason). Miller turns 34 next May and he went into last night’s game with a 3.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) and a 31.2% strikeout rate in 32 innings this season. That is obviously very good. It also qualifies as his worst season as a full-time reliever. He’s also missed time with a shoulder impingement and ongoing knee problems that date back to last season. The Indians even sent him to see the Cleveland Cavaliers doctors to figure out the knee issue. Miller is awesome. I don’t know anyone who didn’t love him when he was with the Yankees. The question is who do you want the next three years, Miller during his age 34-36 seasons or Zach Britton during his age 31-33 seasons? As good as Miller is, I don’t think it would be unreasonable to consider Britton the better investment going forward.

John asks: Assuming a RH starter in the Wild Card game, shouldn’t Walker start over Voit?

Nah. Voit’s been hitting righties pretty hard these last few weeks. He went into yesterday’s game hitting .291/.384/.570 (158 wRC+) against right-handers this season, and that was before his 3-for-3 with a double and a homer game. Neil Walker’s had some big moments with the Yankees — what are the odds he comes up with a random huge hit in the postseason? pretty darn good, I’d say — but he is hitting .234/.326/.390 (94 wRC+) against righties. Voit will swing-and-miss a bunch against big velocity from righties. That’s not unusual though. Everyone does that. Otherwise he’s hit righties very hard and I’d go with him over Walker against a righty in the postseason. (The fact Greg Bird is not even part of this conversation tells you how terrible he’s been.)

Keane asks: Do you think the Yankees might experiment with more bullpen games or an opener next year?

I could see it, yeah. I don’t think the Yankees or any non-Rays teams would do it as often as the Rays have this year, but it’s worth considering. Inevitably there will be injuries and the Yankees will have to turn to young kids to fill out the rotation next year. That’s just part of baseball. And when you have someone like that, like Domingo German or the Chance Adams spot start this season, it’s definitely worth considering using an opener more often. It’s not something I would look to do regularly. There will be some times when it makes sense though, and I hope the Yankees embrace it.

George asks: I had one question after reading your article about re-signing Andrew McCutchen. You mention a three-man (Judge, Stanton, McCutchen) rotation in the corner outfield and DH spots, but who is the backup for center field? If Hicks gets hurt, or needs a day off?

That’s a good question and that’s something the Yankees would have to figure out. Is Ellsbury on the bench? If yes, he’d be the obvious backup center fielder. Judge played center field in a game earlier this year, so the Yankees are comfortable running him out there. Comfortable enough to let him do it fairly often? Or on an everyday basis should Aaron Hicks get hurt? I dunno. The same question applies to Clint Frazier. I wouldn’t want to play McCutchen in center field in anything more than an emergency. He’s been pretty terrible out there the last few seasons. This is definitely something the Yankees would have to figure out should they re-sign McCutchen. You need quality backup options at this up-the-middle positions. They can be awfully hard to fill.

There are eight questions in this week’s mailbag. You can send all your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com each week and I’ll answer as many as I can.

Yogi asks: How close are we to seeing Bird getting non-tendered this offseason? At what point do the Yankees determine he is a “change of scenery” guy and cut bait?

Not at all close to being non-tendered. If anything they’d tender him and trade him. Greg Bird will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and his raise won’t be significant given all the injuries and career .212/.302/.433 (97 wRC+) batting line. C.J. Cron received $2.3M as a first year arbitration-eligible player last offseason and I don’t see why Bird should receive anything close to that, let alone more. My guess is his salary falls in the $1M to $1.5 range next year. That’s nothing. Keep him and send him to Triple-A next season — Bird has all three minor league options remaining — and make him show he’s healthy and productive before giving him another shot in the big leagues. There’s no reason to non-tender him when he could be stashed in Triple-A. No more guaranteeing Bird a job though. He has to earn it.

Chris asks (short version): Does Greg Bird even make the postseason roster?

My initial thought was yes, but, the more I think about, the answer very well might be no. The Yankees carried ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster last year, which means a six-man bench. I think Bird makes the six-man bench as a lefty bench bat who could maybe poke one into the short porch, assuming the Wild Card Game is in the Bronx. The Yankees carried 12 pitches on the ALDS and ALCS rosters last year. Does Bird make a four-man bench? Assuming Luke Voit starts at first and Andrew McCutchen starts in left, three of the four bench spots go to Austin Romine, Neil Walker, and Brett Gardner. That last spot is down to Bird (lefty bat), Adeiny Hechavarria (defensive replacement), Ronald Torreyes (utility infielder), and Tyler Wade (speedster). I’d probably take Bird among those four, but I don’t feel strongly about it. Point is, Bird is not a safe bet to be on the ALDS roster should the Yankees win the Wild Card Game.

Michael asks: A while back there was an article on Fangraphs (you probably read it) about a trade of Sonny Gray for Tyler Chatwood. Do you think Chatwood could be an effective RP for the Yanks, and would that be shooting too low in a Sonny Gray trade this winter?

Here is Sheryl Ring’s article on Gray-for-Chatwood from earlier this year. The general idea is sending Chatwood to the anti-fastball Yankees and Gray to the anti-anti-fastball Cubs would help both guys turn their seasons around. I fully expect the Yankees to trade Gray this winter, and it’ll probably be for another change-of-scenery type, but I’m not sure Chatwood is the guy I want. The dude has a 5.30 ERA (5.59 FIP) with 17.5% strikeouts and 19.6% walks in 103.2 innings. That’s 85 strikeouts and 95 walks in 103.2 innings. Eek.

That isn’t to say Chatwood has no redeeming qualities. His 54.1% ground ball rate is strong and right in line with his career average (54.7%), and his trademark curveball continues to have an extremely high spin rate. He just doesn’t use it much. Roughly 10% of the time the last two years. Chatwood has always had control problems — they were never this extreme, but the guy does have a career 12.0% walk rate — and he’s owed $25.5M the next two years. Even if the Cubs eat some money, I’m not sure I want to bet on him suddenly learning how to throw strikes, especially when the plan is more curveballs. Chatwood’s one of the few pitchers I wouldn’t trade Gray for at this point.

Dan asks: Last year, Gary Sanchez made tons of trips to the mound, presumably to get on the same page with the pitcher. This year, with the new rule limiting trips to the mound, he obviously can’t make as many. It seems like a lot of his passed balls are the result of being crossed up. Could this new rule be part of the reason why he is struggling defensively?

I hadn’t thought about that but I suppose it’s possible. We’ve seen Sanchez get crossed up a bunch this year, especially since he returned from the disabled list, and I suppose not being able to go out to the mound to talk things over could be a factor in that. Passed pitches (wild pitches and passed balls) are not up at all league-wide this year. There’s one passed pitch every 19.9 innings this year. Last year it was every 19.7 innings. The year before it was every 19.9 innings. So yeah, same rate.

League-wide there has been no apparent increase on passed pitches due to the new mound visit rule. It doesn’t mean it hasn’t had any affect on Sanchez though. Fewer mound visits means less communication and it could be leading to more cross-ups and thus more passed pitches. Sanchez’s blocking issues stem from poor technique more than anything. Add in fewer mound visits and it’s just another thing he has to worry about it. Gary isn’t a good blocker to start with. Mix in the potential for more miscommunication and bad things can (and have) happened.

Paul asks: What about Hyun Jin Ryu as someone to pursue this offseason? Obviously a health risk but he’s a lefty with good GB numbers.

Yes. I am a Hyun-Jin Ryu fan and have been since I read a scouting report that described him as the “Korean David Wells” back in the day. And that’s pretty much exactly what he’s been. A hefty lefty who’s a bit goofy and fills up the strike zone. Ryu has a 2.18 ERA (3.01 FIP) with 27.9% strikeouts, 4.6% walks, and 45.4% grounders in 70.1 innings around a pretty serious groin injury this season. His overall career numbers (3.25 ERA and 3.41 FIP) are quite good as well.

Ryu turns 32 in March and the big concern here is injuries. He had very serious shoulder problems that caused him to miss the entire 2015 season and just about the entire 2016 season. His fastball velocity rebounded well after surgery, so that’s good, but it’s still a major injury and that’s always a red flag. I dunno, I like Ryu. He’s good, he’s fun, and I don’t think pitching in New York would bother him at all. What’ll cost? Is he willing to play on the East Coast? I don’t know. But I like the idea of pursuing Ryu.

Alessandro asks: What’s your favorite Yankee near trade/signing that never happened? Maddux, Vlad, and of Cliff Lee come to mind.

Favorite? I’m not sure I’d call it my favorite, but the Cliff Lee non-trade is the biggest “what could have been?” transaction in my book. I was a little too young to understand what it meant to lose out on Greg Maddux (and Barry Bonds!) during the 1992-93 offseason. Passing on Carlos Beltran back in 2005 still irks me, and while I wanted Vlad Guerrero, the Yankees did end up with Gary Sheffield, so they didn’t miss out too much.

The Lee non-trade in 2010 was brutal though. The Yankees and Mariners reportedly had a deal in place, then Seattle backed out claiming they didn’t like David Adams’ medicals, though it’s been speculated the Mariners backed out after the Rangers agreed to include Justin Smoak in the trade. Either way, the Yankees had a deal in place for Lee, then it fell apart, and then he helped beat them in the 2010 ALCS. Gah. The Yankees were so good that year and the non-trade might’ve been the difference between an ALCS ouster and back-to-back World Series titles.

Gus asks: I saw Mike write that the Yankees had room under the cap to trade for Donaldson – but isn’t that not the case if they decline Gardner’s option and have to apply the buyout to this year’s payroll? That seems likely to me.

Gardner’s $12.5M club option for next year includes a $2M buyout and that buyout is guaranteed money. It’s already baked into the average annual value (luxury tax hit) of his contract. If the Yankees decline the option, they have to pay him the $2M, but it doesn’t get tacked onto their 2018 luxury tax payroll. If they exercise the option, Gardner’s luxury tax hit is $10.5M next year, which is the $12.5M salary minus the $2M buyout they’ve already been charged. The Yankees had enough room to fit Josh Donaldson and his $1.3M salary (that’s what the Indians are paying him) under the $197M luxury tax threshold. Gardner’s buyout doesn’t affect anything.

Anonymous asks: Is there anything in Voit’s batted ball profile or spray chart that would lead you to believe that what he’s done so far is sustainable over the course of a full season?

Well, he’s not going to sustain a 42.3% HR/FB rate. I know that much. No one does that. The highest single-season HR/FB rate on record belongs to Ryan Howard (39.5% in 2006). Next highest? Aaron Judge last year (35.6%). Only 14 other players posted a 30% HR/FB rate or better going back to 2002, which is as far as publicly available batted ball data goes. So yeah, I wouldn’t count on Voit maintaining this homer rate.

That said, Voit has done some very good things in his limited time as a Yankee. Going into last night’s game he had a 37.9% ground ball rate and a 43.1% hard contact rate. He’s hitting the ball hard and he’s hitting it in the air, and when you do that, good things happen. The exit velocity and launch angle data gives Voit an expected .418 wOBA. His actual wOBA is .425. He’s been properly rewarded for the contact he’s been making. Can Voit continue making this caliber of contact? It would be cool. At some point the league will adjust — it might not happen until next year at this point — and he’ll have to adjust back. For now, the contact he’s been making suggests this production is no fluke. It’s deserved.

Got eleven questions in the mailbag this week. Send all mailbag questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. I’ll answer as many questions as I can each week.

Stan asks: Hi Mike, it’s probably a bit early to start speculating on this, but what would be your order of preference for the following 3 pitchers for the Yanks to pursue given what they’re likely to command in free agency: Happ; Charlie Morton; Patrick Corbin? And how do you think your ranking would jive with the Yankee’ administration’s preferences?

Morton has indicated he might retire after the season. He won a ring last year and has made some money, and now he wants to spend more time with his family. I’m not sure he’s a realistic free agent target. But, for the mailbag’s sake, let’s assume he is. Here’s my preference list and what I think is the Yankees’ preference list:

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I’m at the point now where I have little interest in spending big on non-elite pitchers. There are too many Jordan Zimmermanns and Jeff Samardzijas and Ian Kennedys out there. Those “well this guy could be really good so let’s pay him because there’s no one better available” guys. I’d rather roll with quality veterans like Happ and CC Sabathia (and Hiroki Kuroda) on short-term deals than pay big for someone who’s not really worth a big contract.

Now, you can strongly argue Corbin is an elite pitcher. He does have a 3.05 ERA (2.40 FIP) with great strikeout (31.1%) and walk (5.7%) rates this year, which is undeniably excellent. He’s also never had a year suppressing home runs like this. His ground ball rate (48.4%) is right in line with his career norms (48.9%), yet he’s gone from 1.30 HR/9 (16.6% HR/FB) the last two years to 0.68 HR/9 (10.9% HR/FB) this year. And that’s despite the second highest hard contact rate in baseball. Hmmm.

Corbin and Dallas Keuchel will be the top two free agent pitchers this winter (they’re 1 and 1A) and Corbin is probably going to get the biggest contract because he’s younger than Keuchel and he’s been better this year. I’m not saying Corbin will be bad going forward. I’m just a little wary given the sudden the home run improvement and the fact he has Tommy John surgery in his not-too-distant past. The short-term veterans are my jam.

Les asks: In your opinion, excluding injuries, what has been the biggest disappointment to the season so far?

Gary Sanchez, easily. Greg Bird has been a disappointment, for sure, but my expectations for him weren’t that high coming in the season. Luis Severino was too good in the first half for me to consider him a disappointment, and while Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t had the year so many of us expected, he’s been really good overall. He played at an MVP pace for four months while on a bad hamstring.

I expected a much bigger season from Sanchez based on, well, everything he’s done prior to this season. The groin injuries stink. I don’t blame players for injuries unless they get hurt doing something dumb (i.e. Aaron Boone’s basketball knee injury). Sanchez is 320 plate appearances into his season now and he’s hitting .186/.281/.411 (86 wRC+). That stinks. I know the league average catcher has an 84 wRC+ this year. It still stinks. For Gary, it stinks.

Rather than continue to develop into a middle of the order force and cement himself as the best catcher in baseball, Sanchez has taken a big step back this season, on both sides of the ball. Who’s to blame? Start with Gary, not Boone and the coaching staff. Sanchez has been a huge disappointment. It doesn’t mean I want to trade him or move him to first base. He is my starting catcher in 2019, hands down. But this has been a very disappointing year for him.

Luke asks: Do you think the Yankees should sign Nick Markakis in the offseason? He is having a great year, low strike out numbers, bats lefty and is a Gold Glove fielder in the outfield. Seems like the perfect fit to me.

I’m curious to see what happens in left field next year. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Yankees bring back Brett Gardner and continue with the four-man outfield/DH rotation. I totally expect Gardner to be back. Maybe not as a full-time player, but he’ll be back. It’s tough to count on Clint Frazier because of the concussion and the ongoing issues. It stinks. The Yankees can’t really pencil him in as a starter next year. They need to see him healthy in Spring Training first. What about Miguel Andujar? Does he move off third base? What about Stanton? Do the Yankees move him to left full-time and sign a DH?

Markakis is having his best season in quite some time — he’s hitting .306/.371/.457 (119 wRC+) with 14 homers and nearly as many walks (9.8%) as strikeouts (10.9%) — and while I agree his style would fit the lineup well (lefty, lots of contact, some pop), I’m not sure he’s the right guy for it because of the left field situation. Do you sign Markakis and move on from Gardner? Forget about Frazier? Stick with Andujar at third? Other than re-signing Gardner or signing Bryce Harper, who is a special case, I would be surprised if the Yankees spend money on an outfielder this winter.

Erick asks: I keep reading that Ohtani might have surgery now or maybe after the season. Maybe keep batting now, and bat during the recovery. I am not a doctor, but it just seems to me that allowing him to hit can only aggravate the issue. The motions between hitting and pitching are different, but a little twist, anything, can aggravate things. Isn’t it just safer to shut him down now and have surgery and during his recovery not allow him to bat?

Shohei Ohtani has not yet said he’ll have Tommy John surgery — the team recommended it but they can’t make him get it any more than your employer can make you get surgery — and he’ll continue to DH through the end of the season. I imagine he wants to get a second opinion before having surgery. That’s usually how these things work. Anyway, there’s no harm in continuing to play. He already needs Tommy John surgery! He can’t make the injury worse. Should Ohtani have the surgery now so he can begin his rehab as soon as possible? Yeah, I think you can make the case. Then again, he won’t pitch at all next year, so he’s getting a 16-month rehab either way. There’s nothing to aggravate right now though. His elbow ligament is already torn beyond the point of no return.

Bob asks: Earlier this year, the Yankees hit a ton of multi-homer games, and there was talk about the ML record, which I seem to recall was 24. I have kind of lost track – where do they stand now, and are they somewhere on track to break this record?

Ten different Yankees have combined for 21 multi-homer games this season. The ten: Tyler Austin (twice), Greg Bird (once), Brett Gardner (twice), Didi Gregorius (four times), Aaron Hicks (twice), Gary Sanchez (three times), Giancarlo Stanton (three times), Gleyber Torres (twice), Luke Voit (once), and Neil Walker (once). No other team has more than 15 multi-homer games this year.

Only 17 teams in history have had 21 multi-homer games in a single-season, including the 2018 Yankees. The Nationals had 22 last year. The Orioles had 22 the year before. The all-time record is 24 multi-homer games by the 1961 Yankees and 1966 Braves. Time is running out but the record is definitely within reach. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the Yankees are on pace for 260 home runs right now. The all-time record is 264 by the 1997 Mariners. The Yankees are going to need a big homestand to break that record.

Bob asks: The Yankees have 9 players on their roster who will become free agents in the postseason. There are 3 starting pitchers (Sabathia-Happ-Lynn), 2 relief pitchers (Robertson-Britton), 2 OF (Gardner-McCutchen), and 2 IF (Walker-Hechavarria). Who should the Yankees try to re-sign and who should they let walk?

I say re-sign Sabathia, Happ, and David Robertson. Zach Britton’s going to get a huge contract and go all Wade Davis on some team next year. The Cardinals are my guess. Lance Lynn is a serviceable back-end starter but I’m not really interested in a reunion. The Yankees have too many outfielders to bring Andrew McCutchen back. It’s not really a fit for either side. No on Adeiny Hechavarria and no on Neil Walker. I like Walker, but he’s struggled to produce as a bench guy. And like I said earlier, my guess is Gardner is back in some capacity next season. Sabathia, Happ, and Robertson are all above-average players and they shouldn’t require long-term deals.

Stan asks: With Gray getting a start in Minnesota this week do you think the Yankees are trying to see if they are going to keep him or try to trade him over the offseason? Also do you think the Yankees should release him from the anti-fastball approach and just him pitch however he feels?

The Yankees started Sonny Gray on Tuesday because they wanted to give Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka extra rest. That’s all. One start, no matter how good, was never going to influence their decision with Gray’s future. As for the anti-fastball approach, he hasn’t been a huge adopter. Here’s his pitch selection by year:

Gray has traded some four-seamers for sinkers, and he is throwing more curveballs, but that’s fairly recent. Sonny ramped up his curveball usage at midseason as he and the Yankees looked for a way to get him going. I feel like blaming his struggles on the anti-fastball approach is a cop out. Gray’s stuff is plenty good enough to get outs as it is. He’s getting traded this winter. I would be shocked if he’s a Yankee come Opening Day 2019.

Mark asks: Do you think Ellsbury ever plays another game for the Yankees again? Or does he sit out the rest of his contract with a bruised ego collecting insurance checks?

I suppose the Yankees could bring Jacoby Ellsbury to Spring Training next year and throw him into the left field mix along with Gardner and a hopefully healthy Frazier. Maybe Andujar too. Ellsbury had his hip surgery in August and the team announced a six-month rehab timetable, which means he should be ready for the start of camp. It’s a major procedure though and they won’t rush him back, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts the season on the disabled list, in which case the insurance checks keep coming.

Since there are two years remaining on his contract, I think we’re starting to get into “the Yankees could release him” territory with Ellsbury. Carl Crawford was released with two years on his contract. Pablo Sandoval was released with two and a half years on his contract. The Yankees released Alex Rodriguez with a year and two months left on his contract. If Frazier is healthy and the outfield is full, would the Yankees move on completely to alleviate the roster jam? I mean, the Yankees could’ve used Ellsbury in April and August this year, so getting rid of the depth might not be a good idea. Ellsbury has to finish his rehab and get healthy before this is a real problem.

John asks (short version): This is probably a hypothetical question at this point. If Judge were to play a couple of rehab games with SWB in the IL playoffs and then get called up before the series was over, would SWB be able to replace him on their roster or would they continue the series a man short?

Rehabbing players do not count against the minor league team’s 25-man roster. They’re basically a 26th man added to the roster. Judge is not expected to join Triple-A Scranton before the International League Championship Series ends this weekend, but, if he did, he’d be a rehabbing player and not part of the 25-man roster. No one has to get dropped from the roster to make room for him or anything like that. And that applies all the time, not just during the postseason. Works the same way during the regular season.

Vincent asks: Looking ahead to the offseason, how do you like Byron Buxton as a buy low trade target? Gardner looks like he’s hit the wall, we don’t know what Frazier’s long term outlook might be, and Hicks has one year left until free agency.

I like it. It’s the same idea as the Hicks trade, right? Grab a once (very) highly regarded player and try to help him reach his potential. It worked out wonderfully with Hicks. Doesn’t mean it’ll work with Buxton, but it’s worth a try, I think. At worse, Buxton is an elite center field defender who can hit ninth in your lineup. The upside is there for more. A lot more. He did hit .300/.347/.546 (130 wRC+) in the second half last season. There have been flashes.

Buxton, 25 in December, did not get a call-up in September, and Twins GM Thad Levine more or less admitted they’re not calling Buxton up to delay his free agency. Levine said they’ll have to made amends with Buxton this winter, which suggests some bad blood. He hit .156/.183/.200 (-13 wRC+) in 94 plate appearances around injuries earlier this year and then was sent to Triple-A, where he hit .272/.331/.456 (122 wRC+) in 148 plate appearances. Buxton does have a minor league option remaining, so my guess is the Twins will keep him and try to rebuild his value next year. If the Yankees can get him in a buy low deal, I am 100% for it. Bet on the elite talent.

Christopher asks: Task is to field a team of active players who were once in the Yankees system. Who would be in the lineup? Current major leaguers only who spent at least one MiLB season in the system. Any other criteria up to you.

Fun! There’s lots of former Yankees out there. Back in June, Joel Sherman noted the Yankees originally drafted or signed more current big leaguers (52 at the time of the article) than any other team.

Anyway, Christopher’s rules are current Major Leaguers (sorry Rob Refsnyder) who spent at least one minor league season in the Yankees’ farm system. I’m going to limit it to players originally signed or drafted by the Yankees as well (sorry Billy McKinney). Here’s my lineup:

1. LF Ben Gamel, Mariners
2. C Francisco Cervelli, Pirates
3. 2B Robinson Cano, Mariners
4. DH Melky Cabrera, Indians
5. RF Jake Cave, Twins
6. 1B Tyler Austin, Twins
7. SS Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox
8. CF Mason Williams, Reds
9. 3B Jose Pirela, Padres

I debated Williams or Dustin Fowler for the final outfield spot, and while I would take Fowler’s next five years over Williams’ next five years, Williams is hitting .294/.327/.412 (98 wRC+) for the Reds this year. For real. Good for him. Third base is kind of a wasteland. It’s either Pirela, who’s hitting .250/.304/.337 (76 wRC+) at the moment, or sliding Nunez to third and going with Abi Avelino at short. Avelino is 2-for-13 (.154) in limited time with the Giants.

Am I missing anyone obvious? I don’t think so. Plugging that lineup into the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool with each player’s 2018 numbers tells me my lineup of former Yankees prospects would score 4.75 runs per game, which is a heck of a lot better than I expected. That would be tied with the Cubs for the sixth best rate in baseball. Huh.

Only seven questions in the mailbag this week as we’ve seem to have hit the annual “ugh why isn’t the season over yet just get to the postseason” part of the calendar. Less than four weeks to go in the regular season, folks. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you should send your questions each week.

Dan asks: What are the chances actually part ways with Boone at the end of the season? What would need to happen for that to take place? Losing the wild card game? Making an egregious mistake/move? When David Cone was in the R2C2 pod, he mentioned that when he saw Boone at a hotel bar earlier in the season that he gained more respect for him making himself available like that. But just having a good personality doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a solid manager.

There is basically a 0% chance Aaron Boone will be fired after the season. Barring an outright mutiny in the clubhouse (that ain’t happening with this group) or an unknown behind-the-scenes matter (remember when Dave Eiland was mysteriously fired?), Boone is here for the long haul. The Yankees knew they were getting an inexperienced rookie manager — that was the gamble they knowingly took — and they’re willing to live with the short-term growing pains in exchange for what they expect to be a big long-term reward. He’s a prospect, basically.

Boone has undeniably made some baffling on-field decisions this year. I don’t like Gleyber Torres hitting ninth at this point and the A.J. Cole obsession is pretty bad. Every manager does weird stuff like this though. Year One was always going to be something of a trial-and-error year for Boone. You could argue turning this team with these expectations over to a rookie manager was a bad idea, but the Yankees knew the risk, and they went with Boone anyway. He’ll get plenty of time to grow and develop as a manager. They’re not pulling the plug after one season, especially when they’re still on pace to win over 100 games.

Keane asks: Knowing what we know about Ohtani now, would you still sign him last December if you could? He won’t be back until 2020, but you’ll get four years of team control.

Absolutely. Shohei Ohtani is a star and I think he’s a generational talent. The guy is hitting .287/.367/.579 (157 wRC+) with 18 homers in 279 plate appearances while throwing 51.2 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.56 FIP) and 29.9% strikeouts. Small sample sizes? Yes. The talent is undeniable though. Ohtani put up Aaron Judge (156 wRC+) and Charlie Morton (3.14 ERA and 3.59 FIP) numbers while dealing with that ongoing elbow injury. He showed he can handle MLB velocity at the plate and overwhelm hitters from the mound. What an awesome, fun player.

The Tommy John surgery absolutely sucks, but the Angels got this guy for nothing. The Angels gave him a $2.315M bonus and they control him for six years (ages 23-38) like every other rookie under the dumb international bonus rules. It’s a minimal commitment for a massive talent. Assuming Ohtani comes back a full-time two-way player in 2020, losing a year and a half of his six years of control to injury really stinks, but I’d happily sign up for the other four and a half years. I really wish the Yankees could’ve signed Ohtani. Alas.

Blaise asks: Since Sanchez has been on the DL I feel like our SP’s haven’t been as effective with Romine and Higgy behind the plate. In my opinion Sanchez is a much better game manager than Romine & Higgy, and because of that opponents swing and miss more often with Sanchez behind the plate compared to when Romine & Higgy are catching. Is this accurate?

For whatever reason hitters have swung and missed more when Gary Sanchez has been behind the plate this season. I’m not sure this is a good way to gauge game management or pitch-calling or things like that because, as always, the guy on the mound matters. The catcher can have the perfect plan and call the perfect pitches, and things can still go wrong. It’s still up to the pitcher to execute. Here are some numbers:

	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Out of Zone Called Strike	In Zone Called Ball
Sanchez	27.2%	8.0%	29.9%	6.0%	4.6%
Romine	25.9%	8.3%	27.7%	5.6%	3.9%
Higgy	27.2%	7.4%	28.1%	5.5%	3.0%
MLB AVG	22.1%	8.4%	24.8%	5.2%	4.2%

Compared to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka (and the MLB average), Sanchez gets more called strikes on pitches out of the zone and also more balls called on pitches in the zone. The difference is tiny though. A handful of calls per 1,000 pitches in/out of the zone. Even with PitchFX and Statcast and all that, I don’t think we’re anywhere close to reliably measuring a catcher’s game-calling and game management.

Carlos asks: Ok, I know is a late question and probably lots of one side perception. But what is the Yankees 1st Inning ERA and how we rank against the league? It just seems we are always down after the first.

Historically, more runs are scored in the first inning than any other inning because it is the only inning in which the top of the order is guaranteed to bat, and teams (usually) stack their best hitters at the top of the lineup. Back in the day a lot of runs were scored in the sixth and seventh innings as well, though that really isn’t the case anymore because teams have quicker hooks with their tiring starters.

The Yankees have allowed a lot of first inning runs lately but, overall, they’ve been better than league average in the first inning. Here’s the inning-by-inning breakdown:

• 1st inning: 4.24 ERA (MLB rank: 10th; MLB average: 4.65 ERA)
• 2nd inning: 4.18 ERA (MLB rank: 20th; MLB average: 3.72 ERA)
• 3rd inning: 2.51 ERA (MLB rank: 2nd; MLB average: 3.90 ERA)
• 4th inning: 4.76 ERA (MLB rank: 22nd; MLB average: 4.27 ERA)
• 5th inning: 4.50 ERA (MLB rank: 18th; MLB average: 4.32 ERA)
• 6th inning: 4.76 ERA (MLB rank: 21st; MLB average: 4.27 ERA)
• 7th inning: 3.15 ERA (MLB rank: 4th; MLB average: 4.17 ERA)
• 8th inning: 3.24 ERA (MLB rank: 5th;  MLB average: 4.18 ERA)
• 9th inning: 2.56 ERA (MLB rank: 1st; MLB average: 3.79 ERA)
• Extras: 3.03 ERA (MLB rank: 10th; MLB average: 3.80 ERA)

Not surprisingly, the Yankees are much better in the late innings than the early innings thanks to their bullpen. Kinda weird they’re so good in the third inning. Is there a trick to being a good third inning team? Or is it just a coincidence? It is almost certainly the latter.

RJ asks: Will Sevy win the AL Cy Young if he ends up leading the league in wins?

Probably not. The prevailing narrative says the Cy Young voting changed after Felix Hernandez won the award with a 13-12 record in 2010, but eleven of the 14 Cy Young winners since then have been the league leader in wins, so I’m not sure that really holds water. Maybe it’s all one giant coincidence.

Anyway, thanks to his ongoing slump, I think Severino is too far down the leaderboard in other categories to win the Cy Young. His ranks among AL starters:

• Wins: 17 (2nd)
• Innings: 173.2 (7th)
• ERA: 3.52 (11th)
• ERA+: 125 (10th)
• FIP: 3.04 (4th)
• Strikeouts: 202 (5th)
• K/BB ratio: 4.81 (5th)
• fWAR: +4.8 (6th)
• bWAR: +4.0 (8th)

Severino’s been good but others have been better, specifically Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, and Blake Snell. Sale, Bauer, and Snell are going to end up throwing like 40 fewer innings than the other Cy Young candidates due to injuries, which will hurt their chances. I feel like the Cy Young is going to fall into Kluber’s lap again, not that he would be undeserving.

George asks: I had seen playing status for first round pick C Anthony Seigler in GCL and then at Pulaski team. It appeared that he was taken out mid game a few weeks ago but have not seen him in box scores or any DL notices. What’s up?

Seigler took a foul tip to the face mask on August 16th and the Yankees shut him down for the rest of the season with a concussion. Pulaski’s season was a week away from ending and there’s no sense in pushing your most recent first round pick — a just turned 19-year-old kid out of high school — after suffering a brain injury. Let him rest up and get ready for next year. Seigler hit .266/.379/.342 (108 wRC+) with more walks (14.7%) than strikeouts (12.6%) in 24 games in his pro debut. My guess is he’ll spend all of next season with Low-A Charleston.

Dave asks: the recent trade for McCutchen removes two more players from the future 40 man roster / rule V roster crunch. How about a quick rundown of who is left on the bubble at the moment?

The Yankees really cleaned up the 40-man roster situation at the trade deadline this year, both July 31st and August 31st. They have nine free agents coming off the roster after the season  (Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarria, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, CC Sabathia, Neil Walker, and probably Brett Gardner) and three 60-day DL players to activate (Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery), which leaves six open 40-man spots. Here are this offseason’s notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects:

• Catchers: Donny Sands
• Infielders: Dermis Garcia,  Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park, Brandon Wagner
• Outfielders: Trey Amburgey, Pablo Olivares
• Pitchers: James Reeves, Justus Sheffield

Not the most exciting group. Sheffield will obviously be added to the 40-man — he’s probably coming up once the Triple-A Scranton season ends anyway — and I think there’s a good chance Amburgey, Holder, and Wagner make it as well. None of them project to be impact big leaguers but they all look like quality depth pieces, and all of them have played at Double-A next year, so they’ll be knocking on the door soon.

Remember, the Yankees will need some 40-man spots for big league additions. Britton, Happ, Robertson, Sabathia … those dudes all have to be re-signed or replaced. Can’t just load up the 40-man roster with non-elite prospects, you know? It is super early, but, given the current 40-man outlook, I wonder if the Yankees may look to make a Rule 5 Draft pick this year. They haven’t made a Rule 5 Draft pick since Brad Meyers and Cesar Cabral in 2011. Maybe they’ll look for an arm or a corner bat to compete with Greg Bird in the spring.