Mailbag: Bench, Shuttle, Rest, Kaprielian, Eovaldi, Pineda

We’ve got 15 questions in the mailbag this week. That’s a lot. The RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address is the place to send us any comments or questions throughout the week. We’ll get to as many as we can.

Hicksie. (Leon Halip/Getty)
Hicks-ey. (Leon Halip/Getty)

Justin asks: Of the Yankee bench players who is most and least likely to make it all the way through the season on the 25 man?

Aaron Hicks and Austin Romine. Pretty easy calls, I think. The Yankees did not trade John Ryan Murphy only to give Hicks a leash of a few weeks or months. He’s here for the long haul and I think he’s going to see a lot more playing time in the coming days. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hicks start four of the nine games on the upcoming road trip.

As for Romine, he is simply keeping the backup catcher’s seat warm for Gary Sanchez. Out of everyone on the bench, he is the one who has to most look over his shoulder because a top prospect is breathing down his neck. It only takes 35 days in the minors to delay Sanchez’s free agency, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he spent the entire first half down there. At some point though I think Sanchez will be up and Romine will be gone.

Nathaniel asks: Not Yankees related, but have you seen John Gant’s funky delivery for the Braves? Is it legal and what are your thoughts?

I did see Gant’s delivery. Here’s the video for folks who have not seen it:

That is totally ridiculous and it seems like a lot of wasted effort, but hey, whatever works. It’s legal because he comes set before beginning his motion and he remains engaged with the rubber the entire time. Gant doesn’t do the double leg kick thing when men are on base. Only from the windup. It’s not a bad delivery, just different, and hey, it makes baseball a little more fun. I’m in favor of that.

Rubaiyat asks: When talking about innings limits, does postseason innings count as well? If the Yankees do go deep in the postseason, then Severino might bump up against the innings the Yankees are hoping he would reach. How would they go about it?

Of course. If anything postseason innings are more taxing than regular season innings because the intensity is ramped up. Those innings absolutely have to be considered. Brian Cashman has acknowledged the Yankees have some workload limit in mind for Luis Severino — he declined to say what it is — and I’m certain that includes the regular season and postseason. I could see them skipping a few Severino starts during the summer, then maybe going to a six-man rotation once rosters expand in September. I would be stunned if they shut him down Stephen Strasburg style. I don’t think any contending team will ever do that again.

Charlie asks: Why are pitchers on the shuttle between the minors and the bullpen considered “fresh arms?” I mean, sure, they haven’t played up at the Bigs yet (or recently), but I assume they are pitching down in the farm system up until they get the temporary call, and then again when they get sent back down. So what makes them fresher than anyone else in the bullpen? Is it just that they’re not facing the same caliber of players or are they rested more by minor league managers who know they are going to be called up as “fresh arms?”

When I say “fresh arm,” I mean someone who hasn’t pitched in a few days. The entire point of the shuttle is to send down a pitcher with a big recent workload and bring up a pitcher who has had the last few days off. Looking at our Bullpen Workload page, James Pazos would qualify as a “fresh arm” because he hasn’t pitched in two days. The Yankees would be able to use him today and tomorrow. They couldn’t do that with, say, Johnny Barbato, who just pitched last night. “Fresh arm” just means the guy hasn’t pitched much recently and is available to throw a lot of pitches right away.

Paul asks: With the plan to rest players already being seen in action, what do you think the approximate target for games played for each player is?

That’s a really good question and I’ve been trying to figure that out. How do these target numbers sound?

Brian McCann: 110 games (119 last year)
Mark Teixeira: 130 games (105 last year due to injury)
Chase Headley: 135 games (148 last year)
Brett Gardner: 130 games (140 last year)
Jacoby Ellsbury: 135 games (106 last year due to injury)
Carlos Beltran: 120 games (120 last year)
Alex Rodriguez: 120 games (135 last year)

Those are games started in the field, not total games played. (For A-Rod it’s game started at DH.) I could see the Yankees pushing Teixeira and Beltran a little harder because they’re impending free agents and they don’t really care about any long-term effects.

Do those target numbers sound good? Whatever the numbers are, I’m sure the Yankees will be flexible and adjust depending on how players are performing. If, say, Ellsbury is tearing the cover off the ball in August and the Yankees are in a tight race, those 135 games could become 145 games in a hurry.

Michael asks: In one of this week’s DotF, you noted that Gabe Encinas’s “prospect expiration date has passed.” Out of curiosity, does every prospect have a different expiration date in your mind or do you give every player (barring injuries) until, say, 23 years old to start figuring AA out? Are you ever surprised by late bloomers? Does Gabe have a chance to be one?

It’s different for every player because every player is different. A blanket “one size fits all” approach never works in baseball. You can’t say “you need to be in Double-A by age 22 or you’re behind schedule.” No. Doesn’t work like that. For a guy like Encinas, who has a huge fastball but questionable secondary stuff and command, the fourth year in Single-A pretty much confirms it’s just not happening like you hoped.

As for late bloomers, you’re always aware it’s possible because the player has talent. There’s a reason he was drafted and given the opportunity to play professional baseball. The natural ability is there and yes, sometimes it takes guys a little longer. Corey Kluber and Jacob deGrom were late bloomers. They didn’t establish themselves at the MLB level until they were close to 27. Encinas has a chance to do that — he’s going to continue to get opportunities because he throws hard — the same way any prospect has a chance to figure out it late.

Ackley-ey. (Stacy Revere/Getty)
Ackley-ey. (Stacy Revere/Getty)

Mike asks: Given that Ackley’s arm isn’t strong enough for him to play third, how did he manage to play a couple innings in right field for Seattle last year? Did Seattle have an outfielder with even less arm in left? Is Ackley a viable backup right fielder for New York, or purely LF/1B/2B?

The short answer: the Mariners. Who knows why they do things. They’re currently playing Nelson Cruz in right field and Franklin Gutierrez at DH. I don’t get it either. Besides, it’s not like Dustin Ackley played a ton of right field last year. He played two innings across two games. The first time he replaced Cruz in right in a blowout, and the other time he started the game in left, then slid over to right because Rickie Weeks had pinch-hit for Seth Smith, and Weeks had only worked out in left field after spending most of his career at second. The Yankees could run Ackley out to right field if necessary, but Hicks is clearly the No. 1 option there.

Frank asks: I’m not sure if this a dumb question, but since there are a lot if SS prospects in the organization, can the Yanks FO move some of the players back and forth from a minor league club to another? For example, can Wade be moved to AAA for 2 weeks or so then Mateo fill in at AA, and subsequently Holder would get a taste of High A. This way the prospects would get a taste of each level. Or is this just too complicated?

There’s no reason they couldn’t move players around. There’s no limit to the number of transactions a team can make or anything like that. Clubs usually don’t move prospects around until they meet development goals, however. That’s why guys will spend a full season at a level even though they’re hitting something like .330. The team wants the player to work on certain things, and they promote them when they feel they’ve met those goals. Promotions are a “reward” for development, not necessarily good numbers. You won’t see teams move prospects around just to give a player a little taste of a different level for the heck of it.

Vidhath asks: Just found out that Jaron Long was released. Seemed a bit surprising to me, since he was relatively young and made it to AAA for the first time after a steady climb. Was his stuff that bad that they thought he wouldn’t have a chance in the majors?

That’s exactly what it was. He lacks stuff. Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d) got a look at Long in 2014, and he topped out at 88 with below average curves and changeups. “Long does not have the stuff to pitch in the majors. His below-average FB and CH lack the necessary impact to provide any value as more than an org filler or desperation call-up,” said the write-up. I remember seeing him in a Spring Training game last year and thinking the same thing. He didn’t even have one worthwhile pitch. The stats would lead you to believe Long could help at some point, but once you see him in action, you realize the limitations. Matt DeSalvo was the same way back in the day.

Samuel asks: We hear Rumbelow is being stretched out and then first game it’s attempted he needs TJ. Is there a connection at all or am I grasping at straws?

I don’t think there’s a connection. Nick Rumbelow didn’t even get a chance to really stretch out. He got hurt warming up for his second inning of the regular season. Multiple inning appearances were not new to him — Rumbelow got four or more outs 21 times last year — so it’s not like he was being pushed into uncharted territory. If he had gotten hurt in the middle of his fifth inning or something like that, then yeah, there might be a connection. This just seems like one of those things. Elbow ligaments snap. It happens.

Vince asks: there has been a lot of speculation that the yankees will let chapman walk w/o even trying to keep him. why would they trade for him if thats the case? its not like they were just a closer away from winning it all.

Because he can help them win this year. The “they are not a closer away from winning it all” logic is silly because you can apply that to any transaction ever. Why trade for Starlin Castro when they are not a second baseman away? Why would the Red Sox sign David Price when they aren’t a starter away? It’s a team sport and you need to build the puzzle. Aroldis Chapman is a piece of that puzzle. A very good piece of that puzzle. Simply put, the Yankees are a much better team with Chapman on the roster. No, he may not be the piece that gets them over the top, but he moves them closer to the finish line.

Didi-ey. (Stacy Revere/Getty)
Didi-ey. (Stacy Revere/Getty)

Marc asks: True or false: Yankees could potentially have the best defensive infield in baseball.

Eh, I’ll say false. They do have an above-average defensive infield, though I think Castro is still a little rough around the edges at second, and by time he figures that out, Teixeira will probably be gone. If Starlin makes big strides in the first half, then yeah, the Yankees might have the best defensive infield in the game down the stretch. Who are the other candidates? The Royals and Giants for sure. The Rockies and Marlins are sneaky good too. For now, I’ll say the Yankees have a top ten defensive infield but not top five. Castro’s inexperience is the only major drawback now that Headley seems to have remembered how to throw.

Eric asks: Do you think a combination of the injuries suffered recently (Rumbelow, Mitchell) and potential success by relievers like Kirby Yates and Johnny Barbato change the bullpen shuttle plan in any fundamental way? It seemed like last year the shuttle was used to such an extreme due to depth and lack of a player emerging from the herd of young relievers. Maybe we only see it this year if the bullpen is extremely taxed.

Success by Barbato and Yates would change the shuttle dynamic more than the injuries, I think. The idea of shuttling out relievers and always having a fresh arm or two is great, but ultimately the Yankees are going to go with the roster that gives them the best chance to win. If Barbato emerges as someone worth keeping around — I’m much more confident in him doing so than Yates — then the Yankees will keep him around. None of the shuttle guys did that last year. The injuries to Rumbelow and Bryan Mitchell stink, but that’s why you build depth. If anything the personnel has changed as a result of the injuries, not the plan.

Chris asks: Hi Mike, I just finished reading your draft thoughts and then read your post prior to the 2015 about James Kaprielian. To sum up, it seems that despite the polish, it was thought he did not have a lot of upside. Now that Kap has been able to maintain more zip on the fastball, do you still feel that he does not have a lot of upside, with the exception of potentially being a fast mover through the system? Or has he changed your opinion? It seems to me that with the sustained increase in velocity, on top of the polish, that he could potentially exceed those expectations from spring of 2015. Your thoughts?

The extra velocity definitely changes his ceiling. He went from 89-91 as a sophomore to 91-93 as a junior to 93-95 as a pro. That’s a huge jump. I want to see Kaprielian sustain it throughout the summer before fully buying in, but this is definitely encouraging. Before the velocity bump he was considered more of a mid-rotation starter. With the extra velocity, Kaprielian has a chance to pitch closer to the front of the rotation. Maybe not a true ace, but more of a No. 2 than a No. 3. Like I said, I want to see him hold the velocity a little longer before we start rewriting scouting reports, but this is definitely a positive sign. It’s not often a college starter shows up in pro ball and adds velocity. If anything, the opposite usual happens because they go from starting once a week to once every five days.

David asks: Gun to your head do you extend big mike or nasty nate today assuming they want a similar deal. Both seem doomed to meet their respective ceiling. Mike has the more recent injury history but also better success. Nate seems more durable but could end up in the pen.

My head says Nathan Eovaldi, my heart says Michael Pineda. I think Pineda has a better chance to pitch at an above-average clip long-term, but I also think he’s a much bigger risk because of his shoulder surgery. Eovaldi is so far removed from his Tommy John surgery — it’s been nine years now — that I don’t think his risk of a second Tommy John surgery is considerably higher than Pineda’s risk of a first Tommy John surgery. The new ligament has held up under all those triple digit fastballs. I would have to go with Eovaldi over Pineda because of health. If you want to go with Pineda over Eovaldi, I wouldn’t argue much. I think there’s a good case to be made for both guys.

Mailbag: Puello, Mitchell, Chapman, Gooden, Nicknames

The ultra-rare Friday matinee game screwed up our usual schedule today, so instead of posting the mailbag first thing, it had to wait until the afternoon. Anyway, I’ve got 14 questions in the mailbag this week. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the email address to use if you want to send us any questions throughout the week.

Puello. (Presswire)
Puello. (Presswire)

Chip asks: Ok Mike, I don’t know what to make of this situation so I come to you for your expert genius. Cesar Puello was a guy I predicted I would get irrationally excited about this spring, but the longer he has stuck around and the better he has performed against actual major leaguers I feel like my excitement may no longer be irrational so what’s the deal? Random guy having an awesome spring or former top prospect who got derailed due to injuries showing what he’s capable of when he stays healthy?

My head says random guy having a big spring, my heart says interesting prospect who was hindered by injuries the last few years. Puello played one (1) game last season due to a back injury, and he’s played a total of 263 games from 2012-15 due to injuries and a Biogenesis related suspension. (Puello is the only player suspended as a result of Biogenesis who has not played in MLB.)

Baseball America ranked Puello as the No. 77 prospect in all of baseball back in 2011, so he has natural ability. Heck, they ranked him as the No. 26 prospect in the Mets’ system prior to last season. It’s not like you have to look too far to see the last time he was a prospect. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report from the 2015 Prospect Handbook:

He has flashed every tool but one — the feel to hit … He has plus raw power and at least average in-game juice, but a wild, impatient plate approach inhibits his ability to get to it consistently. Righthanders with good breaking stuff are especially successful at retiring Puello. An average runner with the instincts to play all three outfield positions capably, he has a plus arm that will play in right field.

Aside from injuries, I’m not sure anything has derailed more talented players than the lack of “the feel to hit.” That’s a tough flaw to correct, especially when you’ve missed as much time as Puello has over the years. He’s worth a flier. Absolutely. And the Yankees should be able to give him Triple-A at-bats while Mason Williams is on the DL.

One thing to keep in mind: Puello is out of options. The Mets added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft years ago, and he burned through his three option years. He has a year of service time too. The Mets outrighted him last year because he was out of options and wasn’t going to make the team, but then the back injury popped up, so they rescinded the outright and he spent the season on the MLB DL. Puello’s not a guy the Yankees can send up and down. Once he’s up, he’s up.

Chris asks: Do you know if Mitchell will get MLB pay now that the Yankees said he was going to make the Opening day roster?

Yes, he will. Bryan Mitchell is on the 40-man roster and he’s played in the big leagues in each of the last two years, so he’s currently on the Major League DL. They couldn’t send him to Triple-A and stick him on the minor league DL. Being on the DL is just like being on the active roster. Mitchell will get big league pay — the difference between the MLB minimum salary and even well-paid Triple-A players is hundreds of thousands of dollars — and accrue service time. No one wants to get hurt, but if you’re a guy like Mitchell and you get hurt, you want to spend your time on the big league DL.

Rubaiyat asks: Out of all the shuttle relievers, who do you think will stick around the longest in the majors?

This season or long-term? Johnny Barbato looks like he has a chance to stick around a while this year, and I base that on one regular season appearance and a bunch of Spring Training outings, so take it with a grain of salt. I’ve always felt Branden Pinder is a guy who will spent a lot of time in MLB because he does throw hard and have a good slider. He didn’t wow anyone last year, but the kid went up and down six times (!), and that couldn’t have been easy. I’d like to see what Pinder can do when he gets an extended chance to stay on the roster. Jacob Lindgren‘s the other one. His slider is so good. Aside from injuries, rarely do guys with a breaking ball that good become nothing.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Andrew asks: Assuming Chapman has a Chapman type year once he comes back from suspension, what do you think he gets on the open market?

I think he has a chance to set a new reliever contract record. The current record is Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50M deal with the Phillies a few years ago. Papelbon was great, but Aroldis Chapman has been better …

ERA FIP K% BB% bWAR
2009-11 Papelbon 2.89 2.72 28.9% 7.5% +5.2
2013-15 Chapman 2.05 1.82 45.3% 11.7% +6.5

… he’ll be two years younger than Papelbon was at the time of his free agency, and salaries have inflated the last few years. Will teams try to ding Chapman for the domestic violence incident and subsequent suspension? Probably. They’ll use whatever they can to create leverage.

A lot of great relievers will be free agents next offseason — Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, most notably — though I don’t think that will saturate the market. Teams always need high-end relievers. I could see Chapman winding up with a four-year contract at $13M or $14M per season, so $52M to $56M in total money. It’ll probably have an opt-out after two years or something too.

Richard asks: The BP farm rankings you linked to yesterday had the Red Sox at #5 and the Yanks at 16. Had the Yanks signed Moncada instead of the Sox, how would those rankings have changed?

Of course. Yoan Moncada is a legitimate top 15 prospect in all of baseball, maybe top ten, and guys like that are worth several spots in the farm system rankings all by themselves. Is he enough that the Yankees and Red Sox would switch spots? No way. But with Moncada, I think the Yankees would be much closer to the top ten, perhaps as high as No. 11 or 12.

Chris asks: Dwight Gooden. What was the biggest reason for his downfall: cocaine, overuse at an early age, or hitter figuring him out?

I definitely do not believe hitters figured him out. I think it was mostly overuse, and his physically issues were then exacerbated by the drug problems. Gooden threw 191 innings in the minors at age 18, 218 innings in MLB at age 19, and 276 innings in MLB at age 20. That is pretty insane. That’s a huge workload even back in those days. Those 218 innings are the fifth most by a 19-year-old in MLB history. (Three of the four guys ahead of Gooden started their careers prior to 1940.) The 276 innings are the fifth most by a 20-year-old in history. Doc threw a ton of innings at a very young ago, then he did even more damage to his body with the drug abuse. I was way too young to fully appreciate Gooden’s peak. He was incredible.

Brian asks: Who are your favorite non-Yankee announcers? I’m pretty lucky getting Gary Thorne down here in Baltimore and every once in a while like to switch up my mlb.tv feeds.

Thorne is pretty good. He’s in the top ten announcers for me. Vin Scully is still the best in the business in my opinion. There’s nothing better than chilling out at night, watching Clayton Kershaw pitch, and listening to Vin after a long day at the blog factory. Great way to unwind. The Giants (Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow) have a good booth and so do the Mets (Gary Cohen, Ron Darling, Keith Hernandez). Keith Hernandez is great because he might say something hilariously inappropriate at any time. Example:

Len Kasper (Cubs) and Brian Anderson (Brewers) are great play-by-play men in my opinion. I also really like the Glen Kuiper/Ray Fosse booth for the Athletics. I’m not quite sure how it happened, but Dave Sims, the Mariners play-by-play guy, has really grown on me. When I first purchased MLB.tv back in the day and started watching every team, I couldn’t stand Sims, but now I enjoy him. Go figure.

Ruby asks: Jack Cave was just returned to the Yankees. How common is it for a returned Rule 5 pick to become a significant major leaguer with their original club? What precedents are there with the Yankees?

It seems like it’s much more common for a player to be successful after being returned as a Rule 5 Draft pick than as an actual Rule 5 Draft pick. I guess these players aren’t quite big league ready when they get Rule 5ed, but a few years later, they’re ready to help. Ivan Nova is the most notable example with the Yankees. The Padres took Nova in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft, returned him at the end of Spring Training, and a few years later he became a mainstay in New York.

Other players who have gone on to have big league success after being returned as Rule 5 Draft picks include Ender Inciarte (picked in 2012 by the Phillies), George Kontos (2011 by Padres), R.A. Dickey (2007 by Mariners), Alfredo Simon (2006 by Orioles), and Shane Victorino (2002 by Padres). Victorino was actually a Rule 5 pick twice. He stuck the second time (2004 by Phillies). The success rate is still not very high, but it seems like the players who are returned and get more time to work on their skills in the minors have a better chance of becoming regulars down the line.

Brandon asks: Do you think Nova can perfectly replace Adam Warren? Not sure why but I have a good feeling he’s going to fill the role Warren played last year at the same level.

I don’t know about perfectly, but I do think Nova has a chance to fill that role. The only questions I have are can he a) warm up as quickly as Warren, and b) back as well on back-to-back days? One of Warren’s best attributes was the resiliency of his arm. He threw a few warm up tosses and was ready to go, and he was able to pitch effectively two days in a row. Can Nova do that, especially with Tommy John surgery in the not too distant past? The Yankees gave him almost an inning and a half to warm up the other night, after all.

Don asks: Beltran’s ground out in the first inning got me thinking. He grounded out with runners on second and third, but got the run in and moved the runner up from second to third, a very productive out. Yet, he starts 0-1. If he hit a fly ball and had the same productive result he would be 0-0 with the sacrifice. It’s understandable why a bunt would be a sacrifice because you are giving yourself up, but why the distinction between a Fly out and a ground out?

I’ve had this in the back of my mind for years and I’ve never found a satisfactory answer. Most things I’ve read say it’s because sacrifice flies are considering intentional. The batter was trying to hit the ball in the air to score the run. A run-scoring ground out is considered a ball that was mis-hit, so to speak. I’ve also seen the argument that an RBI ground out is considered a fielder’s choice, implying the fielder could have thrown home for the out but chose not to. I don’t have a good answer for this. I’m of the belief sacrifice flies should be considered at-bats and count against batting average because the hitter had a chance to get a hit and did not. How many hitters are truly up there trying to hit a sac fly? Most of them are up there trying to get a hit, and they settle for a sac fly. The hitter’s intent to give himself up is far more obvious with sac bunts.

Frank asks: I was looking at an article from Fangraphs’ author Cistilli, and I noticed that Didi had a WAR of 3.1 with a wRC+89 in 2015. While Wilmer Flores only had a WAR of 1.9 and he had a wRC+95. Both are good fielders but I am a little confused about the discrepancy in WAR. Can you explain this?

It’s the defense. Flores is not a good defender at all, which is why the Mets went with Ruben Tejada as their regular shortstop in the second half last year, and turned Wilmer into a bench player this year. Last season Gregorius had a +5 DRS and +7.4 UZR. Flores was at -10 DRS and -2.5 UZR at shortstop. That’s the difference right there.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Victor asks: Do you think the Yankees consider Teixeira on 1 year deal with a club option for a 2nd year?

Assuming Mark Teixeira doesn’t fall off a cliff this year — and assuming it doesn’t screw up the plan to get under the luxury tax threshold — I think the Yankees would strongly consider re-signing him to a one-year contract with an option regardless of Greg Bird‘s status. If Bird’s rehab comes along slowly for any reason, pursuing Teixeira on those terms is a no-brainer. And even if his rehab is going well, Teixeira is added depth and would give the team the luxury of sending Bird to Triple-A to knock off any rust. The Yankees aren’t spending like they once did, but I think it’s the big money long-term deals that scare them. A one-year deal for Teixeira, who they know very well, is something the team may be open to.

Paul asks: On a day after Nova pitches, who is most likely to be the guy to take one for the team and pitch 3-4 innings in the event of an emergency?

I have to think it’s Luis Cessa right now. He got stretched out to three innings in Spring Training, so the Yankees could probably send Cessa out there for four innings right now, as long as his pitch count doesn’t get out of control. Barbato and Kirby Yates are true short relievers. One or two innings at the most. Cessa is a starter by trade and he’s somewhat stretched out.

Sean asks: Do we know Girardi’s nickname for each guy on the 25 man roster? What % end in -y?

Oh this is a good one. Let’s build a table and try to fill in the blanks.

Player Nickname Player Nickname
Johnny Barbato  ? Brian McCann  Mac
Dellin Betances  ? Austin Romine  ?
Luis Cessa  ? Starlin Castro Starsky (yup)
Nathan Eovaldi  Evo Didi Gregorius  Didi
Andrew Miller  ? Chase Headley  Head
Ivan Nova  ? Mark Teixeira  Tex
Michael Pineda  ? Ronald Torreyes  ?
CC Sabathia  C Dustin Ackley  ?
Luis Severino  Sevy Carlos Beltran  ?
Chasen Shreve Shrevey? Jacoby Ellsbury  Ells
Masahiro Tanaka  ? Brett Gardner  Gardy
Kirby Yates  ? Aaron Hicks  Hicksy
Alex Rodriguez  Al

Much harder than I expected! I guess maybe that’s because there was so much bench and bullpen turnover this year. (No more Jonesy, for example.) I feel like I’ve heard Girardi call Shreve “Shrevey” before, but I wonder if I’m being confused by everyone joking around and calling him that.

Some guys, like Sabathia and Gregorius, don’t really need nicknames. Heck, Didi already is a nickname. (Didi’s real name is Mariekson Julius Gregorius.) Girardi calls A-Rod “Al” pretty much all the time. Al or Alex. So which ones am I missing? I feel like I’m blanking on a bunch of obvious nicknames here.

Mailbag: Bauer, Montero, Mitchell, Refsnyder, Swisher

I’ve got eleven questions in this week’s mailbag, and some of the answers are pretty long too. As always, you can email us questions at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Bauer. (Presswire)
Bauer. (Presswire)

Bryan asks: Trevor Bauer seems like the kind of pitcher Larry Rothschild could turn around. He’s young, throws mid-90s heat but has control problems. Since the Indians put him in the bullpen would he make sense in a trade for the Yankees as a starter? Something like Nova and Heathcott for Bauer seems reasonable.

Bryan, I’m sorry, but I have to slap a “your trade proposal sucks” on you. Ivan Nova and Slade Heathcott have negligible trade value. The Indians are not trading five years of Bauer — he somehow still has fewer than two full years of service time — for one year of six starter and six years of a sixth outfielder, even with all their outfield injuries. Bauer’s not great or anything, but nope. Not happening. The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat.

Now, that said, I could see the Yankees showing interest in Bauer because he is young (25), he is under team control for a while, and he does strike out a ton of batters. He’s settled into the 91-95 mph range with his fastball and he throws a little of everything. Two-seamers, four-seamers, cutters, sliders, curveballs, changeups, whatever. I see strikeouts on four-seamers, two-seamers, curveballs, and changeups in this video:

Bauer does walk a ton of guys — his 10.6% walk rate was the highest among all qualified starters last year — and the Yankees usually don’t go for that. One of the reasons they targeted guys like Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi was their low walk rates. Also, Bauer has some unique training methods, and he’s butted heads with some coaches over the years. I’m not saying that’s a deal-breaker, just a factor to be considered.

The Indians were open to trading a starter all winter — they reportedly talked to the Yankees about a starter for outfielder trade — and Bauer is the obvious target now that he’s been squeezed out of the rotation. He absolutely fits the “talented young player who is (or may be) falling out of favor with his current team” mold, and those are the types of players the Yankees have been targeting in trades. I am intrigued. I wonder what it would cost.

Patrick asks: The Yanks get a lot of grief for their talent development, out of curiosity, I tried to put a starting team together the players that they drafted/signed and developed? While this team clearly doesn’t win any division, is it competitive at least?

Here is Patrick’s team. He said he stuck to players who spent the “majority” of their minor league time with the Yankees, so guys like Gerrit Cole and Yangervis Solarte don’t count.

C: Francisco Cervelli
1B: Greg Bird, Jesus Montero
2B: Robinson Cano
SS: Eduardo Nunez
3B: Jimmy Paredes (maybe John Ryan Murphy?)
LF: Brett Gardner
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: Melky Cabrera
SP: Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Luis Severino
RP: David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Tyler Clippard, Chase Whitley

Paredes actually spent more time in the minors with the Astros than the Yankees in terms of plate appearances, so he can’t be the third baseman. I’m willing to fudge a little and use him though. I won’t tell if you won’t.

You have to add Nova to the pitching staff somewhere — I’d put him in the rotation and Phelps in the bullpen — and also Mike Dunn too. Dunn has carved out a nice little career for himself as a lefty reliever since being included Javy Vazquez/Boone Logan trade. Arodys Vizcaino, who was also in that trade, spent most of his minor league career with the Braves.

Jose Quintana technically meets the criteria — he threw way more minor league innings with the Yankees (246) than he did with the Mets and White Sox combined (54) — so I guess we have to include him too. He’d be the staff ace. That said, the Yankees didn’t sign Quintana as an amateur. They picked him up after the Mets released him years ago. Letting him go was clearly a mistake. So it goes.

Aside from them, you have spare part players like Ramon Flores and Phil Coke lying around. That’s about it. Manny Banuelos keeps having elbow problems — he was recently shut down with more discomfort — so I’m not sure how you’d put him on the pitching staff. The left side of the infield is weak, but you’ve got a star in Cano, a legit big league outfield, a solid rotation, and a great bullpen. Not too shabby. That team wouldn’t be a pushover.

Jeremy asks: I think it’s pretty obvious that the Yankees “won” the Montero for Pineda deal since Jesus has only played badly when he’s been on the field. But given his prospect value at the time, is Pineda the best we could’ve gotten for Montero? I’m just curious who else you think we might’ve been able to get for Jesus.

It’s really tough to say. The Yankees offered Montero for Roy Halladay back in the day, and the Blue Jays said no, so he wasn’t going to fetch a true ace. Here’s a really quick look at the top pitchers age 25 and under in 2011, the season immediately prior to the Michael Pineda/Montero trade:

  • Clayton Kershaw (6.5 WAR): He had just won his first Cy Young. No chance at a trade.
  • Gio Gonzalez (4.3 WAR): Was traded to the Nationals that offseason. I think the A’s would have seriously considered a Montero-led package. Gio had four years of team control remaining.
  • Matt Harrison (4.0 WAR): Harrison finally had a breakout year in 2011 and helped the Rangers get to the World Series. Not sure Texas goes for Montero with Mike Napoli at catcher, Mitch Moreland at first, and Michael Young at DH.
  • Jeremy Hellickson (3.8 WAR): I can’t imagine the Rays would trade the reigning Rookie of the Year to a division rival.

After those four you have guys like Pineda, Jhoulys Chacin, Vance Worley, Jair Jurrjens, and Trevor Cahill, plus a bunch of others who were presumably off-limits (David Price, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Jordan Zimmermann). Sees like Gio was the best case scenario.

Pineda was a really good haul for Montero. He had a fantastic rookie season — Pineda is still the only starter in history to post a 9.0+ K/9 and a sub-3.0 BB/9 as a rookie — and five years of team control remaining. Pineda got hurt and it sucks. That’s baseball. The Yankees still managed to come out ahead in the trade.

Mitchell. (Presswire)
Mitchell. (Presswire)

Many asked: Would it be crazy to make Bryan Mitchell the fifth starter?

(This question — these questions really, since a few people asked — was sent in before Mitchell broke this toe, but I’m going to answer it anyway because I think it’s a good one.)

I think it would be crazy. I like Mitchell a lot — there’s a reason I had him as the team’s No. 7 prospect coming into the season — but he still doesn’t have a changeup and his command still isn’t even average. That didn’t change in Spring Training. As good as he looked in camp, I am not at all convinced Mitchell is ready to outperform CC Sabathia and Nova as starting pitchers right now. Let him start in the bullpen and force the issue, the old school way.

Chris asks: Do you guys think the Yankees are screwing up another prospect with Refsnyder just like they did Joba? Of course they are not the same beast but it appears the development of both has been grossly mishandled. Hey Rob, come to spring training and fight for a job…oh yeah, that job isn’t second anymore it’s third…oh yeah and you have to hit the snot out of the ball too.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with asking a player to try another position when they’re blocked at the MLB level, and Rob Refsnyder is indeed blocked by Starlin Castro. The Red Sox moved Mookie Betts from second base to center field because of Dustin Pedroia. Manny Machado moved to third because of J.J. Hardy. Daniel Murphy moved to second because of David Wright. Chase Headley, who has been a great defensive third baseman throughout his career, used to play left field in deference to Kevin friggin’ Kouzmanoff. This stuff happens all the time.

At some point the onus falls on Refsnyder. The Yankees gave him a chance to make the team. Putting him at third base was about finding a way to get him on the roster, not screwing up his development. And yes, he had to hit in Spring Training. It’s common for young players to be asked to perform before giving them a job. I’m not saying Refsnyder wasn’t put in a difficult position. He was. But the Yankees asked Ronald Torreyes — who is a year and a half younger than Refsnyder, by the way — to do the same thing this spring and he did it, so he got the job.

Many asked: What about Nick Swisher?

I don’t see where he fits. Not only has he hit .204/.291/.326 (75 wRC+) the last two years, but where would the Yankees play Swisher? He’d have to be the backup first baseman and fifth outfielder — a fifth outfielder with two bad knees at that — which is Dustin Ackley‘s job. Ackley is seven years younger, able to play second base, and probably the better hitter at this point as well. I guess the Yankees could stash Swisher in Triple-A as first base depth instead of Chris Parmelee, but eh. Swisher was awesome for the Yankees from 2009-12. Brian Cashman knocked it out of the park with that trade. I don’t see any room for 35-year-old Nick Swisher on the 2016 Yankees though.

Josh asks: I saw your update that no news about Betances was good news about Betances, however I was wondering how his workload has been this spring and how it compared to last year? He got off to a slow start last year and some theorized that it was due to not having thrown enough innings during spring training. Did the Yankees run him out there more? Or is the mentality for late inning guys still in the Mo-Mold of six drive-by innings?

Here are Dellin Betances’ official Grapefruit League inning totals over the last three years:

2014: 12.1
2015: 8.1
2016: 6.0

That does not include minor league game appearances, and who knows what those numbers are. (Dellin threw an inning in a minor league game earlier this week.) Betances is probably going to throw one more inning this spring — I’m guessing it’ll be tonight, so then he has two days off before Opening Day — and finish the spring with eight innings when you count that one minor league game inning we know about.

So, anyway, that all means Dellin’s workload this spring was basically the same as last year. He’s getting the veteran treatment. Betances did change his offseason routine — he said he gave himself a few extra weeks to rest before throwing again — which may have helped him this spring. Whatever he’s been doing this year, it’s worked so far. No issues whatsoever with Betances this spring.

David asks: I had a question about streaming, the answer to which I cannot find anywhere. I know that the Yankees are supposed to be covered by MLB’s new in-market streaming deal with FOX, but I haven’t really seen any follow-up on that since November. Google is surprisingly unhelpful. Do we know for sure that this is happening? I’ve only been able to stream spring training games via MLB.tv, leading to my concern.

The in-market streaming is definitely happening, though it won’t work the way I thought it would. I thought it would be as simple as paying for the service, authenticating your credentials, then firing up MLB.tv. Apparently it won’t work that way. Maury Brown has some more details:

Those that have ditched their televisions in favor of going with just internet content will be in a lurch if they wish to take advantage of getting games in their local markets. Users will need get the games streamed through FOX Sports Go, or FOX distribution points online. Like the MLB All-Star Game, users will have to authenticate to show which FOX regional sports network is part of their TV carrier’s package. Games will not be streamed as part of MLB.TV Premium, which includes the league’s popular At Bat for mobile devices.

You will still need to subscribe to YES through your cable provider, though it doesn’t seem as though there will be any additional fees. (A few years ago the Yankees on YES in-market streaming package was an extra $50.) So you’ll subscribe to YES, sign into the FOX Sports Go app, then provide your cable provider details for authentication. I thought it would be built right into MLB.tv. Lame. Still better than nothing though. Hope that helps.

Trout. (Presswire)
Trout. (Presswire)

James asks: To my furthest knowledge teams are willing to play between 6-8 million a year per 1 win( going off war). So with that math: if mike trout were to hit free agency right now mathematically how much would he get?

These days it’s closer to $8M per WAR, but that’s the league average. Every team is different. One win is worth more to the Yankees given their spot on the playoff bubble than it is to, say, the Phillies. The Yankees might be willing to pay $12M for that one additional win. Anyway, assuming $8M per WAR and the fact Trout is only 24 and his worst big league season was +8 WAR, his true on-field value is north of $64M per year. It’s probably closer to $80M. I could see him easily getting $40M per season if he were a free agent right now, maybe even $45M, but baseball is not at the point where a player is going to make $60M+ per season. I truly despise $/WAR analysis though. I understand the concept and it is important, but it’s become such a lazy crutch. Wins have different values to different teams at different points in time.

Jonathan asks: I’m wondering if you, or any other Yankee fans are feeling a bit disenfranchised by the Yankees PR and moves this off season? From the stub hub elitist comments, to the Chapman trade (essentially taking advantage of the market value of a player due to a domestic violence case). However as a lifelong fan, it’s not like I can just stop being a fan. But I can’t say my morale with this team has me proud to be a fan. Just wondering if you, or any of the other die hards feel the same?

Oh yeah, I definitely feel the same way and I’m sure others do as well. I’ve made it clear I did not like the Aroldis Chapman trade because of the domestic violence incident. When someone allegedly chokes and pushes their girlfriend, and shoots a gun in their house, the reaction shouldn’t be “how can this benefit us?” The StubHub thing was so ridiculous it almost felt intentional. Maybe it was part of some big social experiment or something. The fan experience at Yankee Stadium is pretty lame — why are the concessions so bad? even the new stuff they added this year is all gimmicky — and then you’ve got Hal Steinbrenner talking about his desire to cut payroll every chance he gets. It’s hard to just stop being a fan, but man, the Yankees have been pretty terrible at fostering positive PR recently.

Sam asks: You brought up that Girardi has been the manager for 9 years now in your coach post, could you do a 25 man roster of the best players from those 9 years based on each player’s best season?

A 25-man roster is a bit excessive. I’m going to pass on that. I will put together a roster of the best seasons at each position during the Joe Girardi era, however. I’m going to list two teams. The first team will be off the top of my head to see how the ol’ memory is working. The second team will be listed by WAR, the boring way. Here are the teams:

Mike’s Memory Team WAR’s Team
C 2009 Jorge Posada 2015 Brian McCann (2.8)
1B 2009 Mark Teixeira  2009 Teixeira (5.3)
2B 2012 Robinson Cano  2012 Cano (8.4)
SS 2009 Derek Jeter  2009 Jeter (6.5)
3B 2009 Alex Rodriguez  2008 A-Rod (6.8)
LF 2011 Brett Gardner  2010 Gardner (7.3)
CF 2011 Curtis Granderson  2011 Granderson (5.7)
RF 2012 Nick Swisher  2012 Swisher (3.8)
DH 2009 Hideki Matsui  2015 A-Rod (3.1)
SP 2011 CC Sabathia
2009 CC Sabathia
2008 Mike Mussina
2011 Sabathia (7.5)
2009 Sabathia (6.2)
2012 Hiroki Kuroda (5.5)
RP 2008 Mariano Rivera
2014 Dellin Betances
2015 Dellin Betances
2008 Rivera (4.8)
2011 David Robertson (4.0)
2014 & 2015 Dellin (both 3.7)

Hey, I did pretty good! I was way off on catcher — 2009 Posada is fifth behind two McCann seasons and two Russell Martin seasons by WAR — and I made the mistake of not picking the only year A-Rod played a full healthy season at third base under Girardi. I had the wrong year on Gardner. I thought 2010 was his big breakout year, not 2011. And no, I don’t think Gardner was actually worth seven wins in 2011. WAR can be dumb like that.

I undersold Robertson’s stellar 2011 season. It’s easy to forget how insanely good he was that year. Mussina’s 2008 season is the fourth best season by a starting pitcher under Girardi at +5.2 WAR, so I’m essentially correct. WAR’s not precise enough to think there’s a significant difference between +5.2 WAR and +5.5 WAR, no disrespect to Kuroda. Also, the difference between 2015 A-Rod and 2009 Matsui is only +0.4 WAR, so not big deal there.

Some other seasons worth highlighting (in no particular order): 2015 Andrew Miller, 2009 Andy Pettitte, 2009 Johnny Damon, 2012 Rafael Soriano, 2009 Phil Hughes, and 2008 Joba Chamberlain. Am I missing anyone obvious?

Mailbag: Trade Targets, Strasburg, Ohlendorf, Rodriguez

Got ten questions in the mailbag this week, and some of the answers are longer than usual. As always, make sure you use the RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address to send us questions.

Lee. (Presswire)
Lee. (Presswire)

Matt asks (short version): Who might the Yankees target for their next “guy with lots of talent, but hasn’t put it together yet” trade? I happen to be a big fan of Mike Foltynewicz, whom I don’t even see on the Braves Depth Chart at the moment.

Foltynewicz is a good one and he definitely fits the Yankees’ mold as a hard-thrower (averaged 95.1 mph in 2015) with a history of missing bats. His walk rates are probably a bit too high though. The Yankees tend to seek out low walk guys like Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda. Foltynewicz had surgery in September to remove blood clots from his arm and the Braves are bringing him back slowly this spring.

The Yankees have been targeting these “out of favor” players over the last two offseasons and it’s worked out pretty well so far. Eovaldi and Didi Gregorius worked out great. This year we’ll see how Aaron Hicks and Starlin Castro work out. As always, it’s tough to predict who will be available next offseason, but here are some possible targets for similar trades:

  • 1B/OF Wil Myers, Padres: He had an impressive debut in 2013 (129 wRC+) but he’s struggled to stay healthy since, with ongoing wrist problems the main culprit. He did have a 116 wRC+ in 60 games last year. The Padres are playing Myers at first base, though you could always stick him back in the outfield. Either way, he’s a bat first player.
  • C Mike Zunino, Mariners: Zunino has maybe the worst plate discipline in baseball (.252 OBP in over 1,000 plate appearances!) but he has huge power (video) and is a premium defender. He was drafted by the previous regime and new GM Jerry Dipoto acquired two catchers this winter (Chris Iannetta, Steve Clevenger), so Zunino’s buried on the depth chart.
  • RHP Alex Meyer, Twins: The Yankees love big hard-throwers and Meyer is listed at 6-foot-9 and 220 lbs., and PitchFX clocked his average fastball at 95.6 mph in his MLB debut last year. His control stinks though, and it’s looking more and more likely he’ll be a reliever long-term. The Twins already sent him to Triple-A this spring, so he’s still has not nailed down an MLB job at age 26. Meyer has some similarities to Dellin Betances, though he doesn’t have Dellin’s breaking ball.
  • RHP Zach Lee, Dodgers: Lee’s stuff did not take the step forward many expected after he stopped playing football a few years ago. He throws a lot of strikes with a mostly 89-92 mph fastball, and he has a few different offspeed pitches. Lee’s a fantastic athlete — he was a four-star quarterback recruit out of high school — and I’m a fan of betting on athletes. The Dodgers have buried him way down on the depth chart too. If he’s in their plans, they have a funny way of showing it.

These guys have name value as former top prospects. They’ve all struggled to find success for whatever reason(s) and they all have some kind of carrying tool. Myers has offensive potential, Zunino has power and defense, Meyer has a big fastball, and Lee has a deep arsenal and control. This is a question worth revisiting in the future as things change around the league.

(Jarred Cosart and Tony Cingrani also crossed my mind as possible trade targets. )

Asher asks: If Refsnyder continues to learn a passable third base, would trading Headley become an option?

Sure, though I think we’re a long way from the Yankees even considering that. Remember, the Yankees would not play Rob Refsnyder over Stephen Drew last season, even though a) Drew was awful for long stretched, b) Drew was a veteran signed a one-year deal, and C) it was a position Refsnyder was familiar with. Is it possible Refsnyder shows the Yankees enough defensive competence and offensive production to convince them he can be a regular at this base? Of course. I just can’t possibly imagine how that would happen this year, especially as a part-time player. Based on everything that’s happened the last year or so, it seems pretty clear fans have a much higher opinion of Refsnyder than the Yankees.

Travis asks: If CC Sabathia were to be released at any point before next season (highly unlikely as it may be) what would happen with his vesting option? Would he just get the $25M he would be owed, then could sign for the league minimum with another team?

I believe he would get the $25M in 2017 for a few reasons. One, if it was that easy to get out of a vesting option, teams would be releasing players much more often. (And the MLBPA would freak.) Two, none of the conditions that would void the option would have been met. Sabathia wouldn’t spend time on the DL with a shoulder problem and he wouldn’t pitch in relief for the Yankees. If any of that happened, the option wouldn’t vest in the first place. Once he’s released, another team could sign Sabathia for the pro-rated portion league minimum, just like any other released player.

Will asks (short version): With all the talk of money coming off the books in the next two years, the implication is that this will trigger a spending spree as has happened in past years when money became available. Do you expect to see such a spree or do you think the team will stick with their recent development philosophy, essentially reserving their money to retain their developed talent long term?

I’m not convinced the Yankees are planning a big spending spree once all the money comes off the books. The team wants to get under the luxury tax threshold, that much is clear, and I don’t think they’ll spend big again until they accomplish that goal. Also, teams have to stay under the threshold two consecutive years to max out the revenue sharing rebates, so getting under might not be a one year thing. (The rebates could always change with the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement.)

There’s also this to consider: the upcoming free agent classes are pretty weak. The free agent class we just saw was the best one in years and will be the best one we see until the 2018-19 offseason, the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado/Jose Fernandez offseason. The Yankees could intend to spend again in a year or two, but there simply might be any free agents worth a significant investment. I think the plan is to build a new core from within and supplement through free agency. That’s how the late-1990s dynasty was built and that’s what successful teams like the Giants and Cardinals have done lately.

Daniel asks (short version): After sitting out this offseason on not just big but all free agents, are the Yankees setting up to make the big push to sign Stephen Strasburg? I feel like the only competition they would have would be the Nats and it doesn’t appear they are going to make much of an attempt with Scherzer signed long term and Giolito ready to go.

Strasburg. (Presswire)
Strasburg. (Presswire)

Strasburg is by the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent next offseason — he’s better than anyone scheduled to hit the market in the following offseason too — and Scott Boras is surely looking to top the Max Scherzer and David Price contracts. Strasburg doesn’t have a Cy Young like those guys, but he is younger, he has fewer miles on his arm, and Boras will happily claim the late-season shutdown a few years ago means he’s a great bet to stay healthy long-term.

This is the kind of contract the Yankees seem to be avoiding right now. Those huge money long-term contracts that now include opt-out clauses, which potentially rob the team of some value. I think a ton of teams will be on Strasburg next year — the Cardinals, Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, Angels, Rangers, Astros, Cubs, and Giants could all get involved — and even if not, Boras will figure something out. The Yankees should absolutely inquire. It doesn’t cost anything to make the phone call. It just seems like they’re a few years away from another big signing like this.

Chip asks (short version): The Yankees have used ten second basemen the last two years. What were their combined offensive numbers and how did that compare to Cano over the last two years? If you figure that the early years were the most productive of Cano’s contract and the Yankees got reasonably similar production, then maybe letting him walk while they tried to find a full time replacement was the right move after all.

The Yankees have managed to use ten different starting second basemen and eleven different second basemen overall the last two years. Here’s the list, from most innings at second to least:

  1. Stephen Drew — 1,166.1
  2. Brendan Ryan — 259.2
  3. Brian Roberts — 774.2
  4. Jose Pirela — 186.2
  5. Martin Prado — 140.1
  6. Rob Refsnyder — 106
  7. Yangervis Solarte — 105
  8. Gregorio Petit — 93
  9. Dustin Ackley — 63
  10. Dean Anna — 17
  11. Kelly Johnson — 2

All except Anna (two starts) and Johnson (no starts) started at least nine games at second base. Combined, those guys hit .235/.292/.396 (77 wRC+) in just over 1,200 plate appearances from 2014-15. Throw in the defense and the Yankees have gotten -1.1 fWAR from their second basemen the last two years. Only the White Sox (-1.4 fWAR) have gotten worse production at the position. Robinson Cano, meanwhile, has hit .300/.358/.450 (126 wRC+) with +7.3 fWAR with the Mariners.

The Yankees didn’t get anything close to Cano numbers from their second basemen the last few years and that was completely expected. Robbie was — and still is, I think — the best second baseman in baseball, and that by definition makes him irreplaceable. The Yankees were always going to take a huge hit at second after Cano left. They were willing to trade the short-term hit for avoiding the ugly decline years at the end of the contract. I was totally cool with letting him walk on that contract. Seattle made it very easy to say goodbye.

Jackson asks: In the last couple of drafts, pitchers that Yankees took have seen a bump in velocity. Kap went from 92 to 95/97, Adams from about 93 to about 96 and Carter from low 90s to 96/97. Is this normal for a few percent of pitchers of draft age, or do the Yankees see something in the player before the draft, or is it just luck?

James Kaprielian‘s velocity started to jump late in the spring last year when he was still in college. There were reports he was more 92-94 mph in May, a few weeks before the draft, after sitting 89-92 mph most of his time at UCLA. Kaprielian then went from 92-94 mph to 94-95 mph in pro ball, and he’s apparently sustained that this spring.

When something like this happens once or twice, it’s probably just one of those things. It’s happening repeatedly though. Kaprielian added velocity, as did Chance Adams and Will Carter from the 2015 draft. Jordan Montgomery and Jonathan Holder were 2014 draftees who added 2-3 mph. Tyler Webb and Cale Coshow added velocity following the 2013 draft. Something’s going on there.

It’s not uncommon for high school players to add velocity because they start out as babies. They come to pro ball all gangly and full of projection, then they fill out and mature. Most college players have already gone through that by time they’re drafted. They tend to come to pro ball as more of a finished product physically. In fact, it’s not uncommon for college starters to lose velocity in pro ball because they go from starting once a week to once every five days.

I can’t explain why the Yankees have seen some of their recent draftees add velocity in pro ball, and for all we know it could just be one giant coincidence. It’s happened so often that I have to think there’s something to this though. The Yankees brought Gil Patterson back following the 2012 season and he has a great reputation for developing arms. Maybe it’s all Patterson? He left to rejoin the A’s in November, so I guess we’ll see what happens with the 2016 draftees.

Rubaiyat asks: Since he missed so much time due to a variety of circumstances, do you think Ty Hensley will be moved to the pen full time? Or is it better to keep him stretched out?

At this point the best place for him is wherever keeps him healthy. Hensley’s thrown 42.1 innings total in three and a half years of pro ball. Steven Matz has shown it’s possible to come back from missing so much time early in your career — Matz was drafted in 2009 and he didn’t actually pitch in his first pro game until June 2012 because of Tommy John surgery and subsequent setbacks — but he’s the exception, not the rule. Not many players make it back from that kind of layoff.

Hensley came into pro ball as a fastball/curveball pitcher who needed to work on his changeup and command, and he hasn’t been able to work on that stuff because he’s missed so much time. I say keep him in the rotation for the time being for sure. He needs to get innings. But long-term, his future may now lie in the bullpen because he’s lost so much development time. The good news is his rehab is going well according to farm system head Gary Denbo, so we should see Hensley on the mound at some point in 2016.

Rob asks: Few bullpen arms have stood out yet. Ross Ohlendorf tripped his opt-out the other day. Is he worth a flyer?

True story: I own a Yankees’ Ross Ohlendorf player shirt. I bought it back in either 2007 or 2008, when I thought he was going to be a bullpen mainstay. It’s a wash or two away from disintegration at this point. I wear it to bed once in a while. A few years back Ohlendorf reworked his mechanics to add deception, and he now has a real old timey delivery that is just a treasure:

Ross Ohlendorf delivery

That’s outstanding. Anyway, I looked at Ohlendorf when he opted out earlier this week, and I’m not sure there’s much there to get excited about. He’s been very homer prone throughout his career (1.86 HR/9 in 2015 and 1.31 HR/9 career) and neither his strikeout nor walk rates have been anything special, even in relief.

There’s no such thing as a bad minor league contract, so bring Ohlendorf in that case. I’m not sure it’s worth pushing one of the shuttle relievers to Triple-A to give him a big league bullpen spot though. Ohlendorf’s not enough of a clear upgrade.

Michael asks: What was your favorite Alex Rodriguez regular season moment?

You know, as great as A-Rod has been, it was tough for me to come up with an answer here. I was at his 500th home run game, so that stands out to me. I’ll never forget that. I also saw A-Rod hit a walk-off grand slam against the Orioles and Chris Ray early in that 2007 season, so that stands out too:

The Yankees had the bases empty with two outs in the ninth in that game before rallying. Good times. I had a 20-game ticket package that year and I swear, I must have seen A-Rod hit 20 home runs in those 20 games. Every time I went to a game he went deep. What an incredible season he had.

Other regular season moments that stand out: the three homer, 10 RBI game against Bartolo Colon and the Angels, the home run on the first pitch he saw following hip surgery in 2009, his 3,000th hit, and the home run off Ryan Dempster after Dempster threw at him in 2013. Missing anything obvious? As far all-time A-Rod moments, it’ll be hard to top the 2009 postseason. He was a monster from start to finish that October.

Mailbag: Hitter/Pitcher Combos, Gossage, Ackley, Olson

Got eleven questions for you in this week’s mailbag. Remember to use the RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address to send us anything. Questions, comments, links, money, whatever.

... okay. (Patrick Smith/Getty)
… okay. (Patrick Smith/Getty)

J.J. asks: Which team has the best pitcher/hitter combo? I’m talking one pitcher and one hitter. Am I crazy to think Chicago might dominate, with both the White Sox, with Abreu and Sale, and the Cubs, with Arrieta and Bryant, as frontrunners? Maybe Keuchel/Correa? King Felix/Cano? What do you think? Also, what is the answer for the Yankees – Chapman/Teixeira?

The first pairing that jumped to my mind was Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. I’d probably go with Anthony Rizzo over Kris Bryant with Jake Arrieta, but Bryant works too. Carlos Correa and Dallas Keuchel’s another good one. How does this look for a top ten ranking?

  1. Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer
  2. Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke
  3. Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner
  4. Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole
  5. Anthony Rizzo and Jake Arrieta
  6. Carlos Correa and Dallas Keuchel
  7. Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez
  8. Mike Trout and Garrett Richards
  9. Jose Abreu and Chris Sale
  10. Michael Brantley and Corey Kluber

I’m not missing anyone obvious, am I? I also considered Yoenis Cespedes/Matt Harvey and Robinson Cano/Felix Hernandez. A year ago Cano/Felix would have been right near the top, but both showed signs of slowing down last year, enough to scare me away long-term. For what it’s worth, ZiPS has Harper/Scherzer as the best at +12.9 WAR in 2016. Corey Seager/Clayton Kershaw is a distant second at +11.4 WAR. (ZiPS loves Seager.)

Who would the Yankees submit for this list? I can’t in good conscience put a reliever in a best hitter/best pitcher combination. That’s just sad. Mark Teixeira and Masahiro Tanaka? Jacoby Ellsbury and Luis Severino? I’d go with Teixeira/Tanaka.

Sal asks: Mike, Regarding a question you answered today about Aaron Judge (and Swisher) and possible move to 1B due to Bird Injury, you mentioned moving to a more or less valuable position. Could you rank the 8 defense positions from Most Value to Least Value?

Bill James did a ton of work on the defensive spectrum back in the 1980s. The general consensus is the positions are ranked like so, from most valuable to least valuable:

  1. Catcher
  2. Shortstop
  3. Second Base
  4. Center Field
  5. Third Base
  6. Right Field
  7. Left Field
  8. First Base

There’s room for debate here. I tend to think first base is more important than left field, for example. Historically, the first baseman handles the ball approximately six times more often than the left fielder over the course of the season. Catcher is kind of in its own little world too. It’s not like the other positions where you wait for the ball to be hit to you. Otherwise it’s pretty straight forward, right? Up the middle positions first, corner positions with long throws next, corner positions with short throws after that.

Chris asks: What are your thoughts on Harper’s comment baseball is ‘Tired’? And shouldn’t Gossage go play golf instead of judging today’s players?

I thought Harper’s comments were on point. The game is evolving, and these days MLB is filled by young players and players from all around the globe. Expecting them to act the way players acted 30, 40, 50 years ago is not realistic. MLB wants to grow the game among younger fans and the way to do that is by letting players be themselves. Let them bat flip, let them pump their first. This is baseball and it should be fun.

As for Gossage, his rant(s) came straight out of the “the game was so much better when I played” textbook. Nerds? Check. Bat flips? Check. Instant replay? Check. He hit on all of it. Gossage was teammates with Reggie Jackson. Did he have a problem with his showmanship? He was teammates with Rickey Henderson too.

Rickey Henderson

Gossage is entitled to his opinion and we all know he’s not the only ex-player who hates bat flips and stats and all that other stuff. He’s from a different generation and this is what Harper was talking about when he said the game is tired. That way of thinking is outdated. Baseball can either continue to embrace the old school mentality and lose younger fans to other sports, or they can get with the times. No sport clutches its pearls quite like baseball.

Matt asks: What is your reaction to Chris Sale apparently “ripping into” Ken Williams over the LaRoche debacle?

That seems very bad. First and foremost, a player shouldn’t be chewing out the team president. That shows a lack of control on the team’s part. Secondly, Sale is the most irreplaceable player in the White Sox organization, even morso than Williams, so when he’s this upset about something, it’s a problem. I do wonder if some players privately complained to Williams about Adam LaRoche’s kid and that’s what brought this all about, because otherwise it makes no sense.

Does the team change their policy if LaRoche hits 30 homers last year? Why change the policy in the middle of March? Players consider the clubhouse their space. They don’t like others getting involved in what happens there, so the Sale incident is a symptom of a larger problem. The White Sox have a very unhappy clubhouse right now — by all accounts LaRoche was super popular and a beloved teammate — and it’s up to manager Robin Ventura to smooth things over.

Brian asks (short version): I appreciated your lineup analysis piece and I don’t understand Girardi’s fascination with platooning Gardner. Hicks should absolutely play against every lefty, but shouldn’t it be at the expense of either Beltran (wRC+ (2015-2012): 99, 51, 100, 129)) or Ellsbury (83, 131, 77, 75) over Gardner (112, 97, 102, 446(SSA!))?

There’s more to this than the platoon splits. Ellsbury is on a huge contract and Carlos Beltran‘s a borderline Hall of Famer, so they’ve received the benefit of the doubt when it comes to playing time against left-handed pitchers. It shouldn’t be that way, but it is. I also think Joe Girardi likes to give Brett Gardner regular rest because he always seems to be banged up. That’s just his style of play.

Benching Ellsbury in the wildcard game could be a sign Girardi will be more open to sitting him against lefties, but remember, that came after three terrible months, and even then Girardi said he had to think hard about it. I’m not going to hold my breath. I expect Aaron Hicks to play a lot this year. This could be a situation where Ellsbury and Gardner each start only three out of every four games, with Hicks picking up the slack. Gardner shouldn’t automatically sit against lefties, though Girardi has leaned that way over the last few years.

Keith asks: Are you aware of any scientific or enlightened approach by front offices or players to figure out what size/weight bat should be used? Obviously the goal is to maximize bat speed and bat weight but of course the the two don’t go hand in hand.

I am not but that sounds pretty interesting. That would be highly specialized — each player is different, you can’t have a one size fits all approach with something as important as the bat — and require a lot of research. Players are very particular about their bats too. They find a model they like and stick with it pretty much their entire career. Convincing them to change would be tough. I suspect it would be like most new ideas. Some players would be interested while others wouldn’t want to hear it.

Anonymous asks: I know it would never happen because you have to appease your stars, but would Baltimore be better off with Trumbo at first and Chris Davis in RF? After all, he played 30 games there last year, and Boras DID market him as a ‘potential corner outfielder’. (wink, wink)

Yes, I do think so. I even mentioned that when I whipped up our CBS post on the Alvarez signing. Davis has been stereotyped as a lumbering one-dimensional slugger, but that’s not the case. He’s a surprisingly good athlete for his size and he’s a very good defender at first base. Over the last few years he’s shown he can handle right field with no problem. Is Davis the rangiest outfielder? No. But he can make all the routine plays. Mark Trumbo can’t do that. Trumbo at first with Davis in right and Alvarez at DH is the best defensive alignment for the O’s. Instead, they’re going to play Trumbo in right and Davis at first, and that’s good for the Yankees given their lefty pull hitters and Baltimore’s all-righty rotation.

Rich asks (short version): With the recent talks about the DH being implemented in both leagues, and the absurd uproar about losing the double switch as a strategic tactic, why can’t MLB just amend the double switch rule to incorporate the DH?

I like it. The idea would be to treat the DH spot as the pitcher’s spot, so the Yankees could start Alex Rodriguez at DH and Beltran in right field, then double switch Hicks into A-Rod‘s lineup spot as the right fielder and slide Beltran to DH. I like the idea. It would maintain some of the “strategy” old school folks love — hopefully my simple DH loving brain will be able to grasp the immense complexity of the double switch — and give managers another tool. I’ve never really understand why the DH isn’t treated like every other position, allowing managers to move players in and out throughout the game. I would be surprised if MLB went for something like this. It just seems like someone would fight it for some reason.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Bart asks: If CC Sabathia continues with the same poor results, shouldn’t the Yankees propose a buy-out of his current contract with possibly a deferral of some of the salary to future years? Would CC consider this rather than continuing to perform poorly for another year (or 2)?

They could try, but why would Sabathia agree? Unless you think Sabathia is willing to just walk away from baseball — Michael Cuddyer and LaRoche just did it, so it’s not impossible — there’s no reason for him to agree to a buyout. Sabathia is a top notch competitor and baseball is the only thing he’s known his entire adult life. I have a hard time thinking he’ll just walk away. He’s going to do whatever he can to help his team even though he’s a shell of his former self.

Mike asks: Why does Ackley’s name never seem to come up in conversations about backup third basemen? Does he not have the arm for it?

Right. Dustin Ackley does not have the arm for third base. He barely has the arm for second base at this point. Ackley never had a strong arm to start with, but he had Tommy John surgery in college, and since then it’s been lob city. Considering the Yankees were willing to try both Starlin Castro and Rob Refsnyder at third base this spring, I’m guessing they would have given Ackley a shot there as well if they thought it was possible. The arm strength just isn’t there. That’s too bad. Ackley would be really useful if he could play the right side of the infield.

Julian asks: Does Tyler Olsen have a legit chance to make the Opening Day bullpen?

I’m starting to think he might. Olson has allowed two hits and three walks in 5.2 scoreless innings this spring, and two of the three walks were in his first outing. He’s struck out four overall and lefties are 0-for-8 against him. Olson is a pure lefty specialist with an upper-80s heater and a sweepy slider, so his usefulness is limited. Also, he had a phenomenal spring for the Mariners last year (12.2 IP, 8 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K) then got destroyed in the regular season after making the Opening Day roster (5.40 ERA and 6.36 FIP), so beware Grapefruit League numbers. Right now I think Olson is on the outside looking in, but if he pitches well these next two weeks, he might just sneak onto the roster.

Mailbag: Qualifying Offer, Judge, Teixeira, Mateo, Romine

There are 13 questions in this week’s mailbag. Remember to use the RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address to send us any questions throughout the week.

Qualifying offer getter. (Presswire)
Qualifying offer getter Jason Heyward. (Presswire)

Troy asks: What would you think of a proposal where you had different levels of qualifying offers? Perhaps something as simple as to get a first round draft pick the Qualifying Offer has to be a two or even three year offer at an AAV equal to the current requirement. A one year contract could result in a second or even third round pick. This would seem to distinguish between the top players and the middle of the road guys that get really hurt by the current system.

I like the idea. It certainly seems like it would work better than the current system. How’s this quick two tier proposal sound?

  • Tier One: Three-year contract with the average annual value set at the average of the top 75 salaries in MLB ($18.3M in 2015). Signing team gives up a first rounder and the losing team gets a supplemental first rounder.
  • Tier Two: One-year contract with the average annual value set at the average of the top 200 salaries in MLB ($13.1M in 2015). Signing team doesn’t give up a pick and losing team gets a supplemental second rounder.

That sound good? It’s similar to the old Type-A and Type-B system in that there’s two ways to get a draft pick but only one requires the signing team to surrender a pick. Only a handful of Tier One qualifying offers would be made each offseason. The elite guys would get them. That’s it.

I like this idea. Why should Ian Kennedy and Daniel Murphy get the same qualified offer as David Price and Jason Heyward? With this system the mid-range free agents wouldn’t having their market depressed by draft pick compensation, and their former teams would still get a pick, albeit one a round later. This could work.

Andrew asks: Do we have any stats on which Yankee position players (so everyone besides A-Rod and the pitchers basically) fare better when given a “1/2 day off” at DH? And does this, or if not should it, impact Girardi’s decision making when it comes to allocating which players to give these 1/2 days off.

We have stats for almost everything these days. Here are how the Yankees’ non-Alex Rodriguez hitters have performed as a DH over the last three seasons:

Player PA H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Carlos Beltran 359 73 17 0 12 40 31 69 .227 .298 .393 .691
Brian McCann 84 21 1 0 5 8 3 22 .266 .310 .468 .778
Mark Teixeira 38 7 1 0 1 5 6 7 .219 .342 .344 .686
Dustin Ackley 24 4 1 0 0 5 2 6 .182 .250 .227 .477
Jacoby Ellsbury 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .111 .111 .111 .222
Brett Gardner 10 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 .111 .200 .222 .422
Chase Headley 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .111 .200 .222 .422

Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks have not played a game as the DH at all over the last three years. Aside from Beltran, we’re talking about only a handful of plate appearances spread across several years, so I would just ignore the stats all together. Teixeira hitting .219 in his last 38 plate appearances as a DH doesn’t tell us much of anything.

Most of Beltran’s DH plate appearances came in 2014 (312 of the 359, to be exact), when he couldn’t throw because of the bone spur in his elbow. He’s on the record saying he doesn’t like to DH, and while the numbers back that up, we have to remember he was playing with the bone spur most of those plate appearances. The numbers are skewed because he wasn’t healthy.

When it comes to giving players a half-day off as the DH, I’m not sure looking at these numbers is all that helpful. The pitcher on the mound is going to impact things in any individual game more than the player’s DH history. I wouldn’t think about it too much. The sample sizes are too small to tell us anything useful.

Manuel asks: I think it is a bad idea to put young players in a lefty-righty-platoon. In my opinion they have to face their weaker split situation so they can improve. What do you think?

This is a decision that should be made on a case by case basis. You can’t have a blanket policy that covers all players because each player is different. Gregorius, for example, is someone you’d like to develop into a complete all-around player, so giving him reps against lefty pitching makes sense. On the other hand, if you have a corner outfielder who is no great shakes defensively, it might not be worth the effort to give them the at-bats against pitchers of the same hand. The reward’s just not that great. Take Tyler Austin for example. If he shows he can contribute as a platoon bat, that’s a good outcome at this point. It all depends on the player.

Dave asks: After Greg Bird went down, I was wondering if it might make sense to give Aaron Judge a shot at 1B. Given the backlog of outfield talent, if he starts mashing AAA early in the season, wouldn’t he be a valuable platoon at 1B? It seems he’s pretty athletic for his size, and would be a huge target with a ton of range. Seems like a fair number of OF (a la Nick Swisher) have done it. Any thoughts?

I don’t think you can change Judge’s development path — or any top prospect’s development path for that matter — because of an injury to another player. He’s physically enormous but he’s a surprisingly good athlete for his size, so he’s a solid outfielder defensively. Judge is no liability in the field. There’s no reason to make this move just yet. I’m sure it’ll happen in time though, as he gets older and slows down. It sucks Bird is going to lose a year to injury. It would suck even more if the Yankees moved Judge to less valuable position as a result.

(Also, Swisher was a first baseman in college who moved to the outfield in pro ball. He moved to the more valuable position, not the other way around.)

Patrick asks (short version): Mike, on Saturday I saw Teixeira hitting right-handed against a right-handed pitcher. I don’t know if it was discussed here or on TV, but is there a reason for this?

Steven Wright was pitching for the Red Sox that day and Teixeira hits from the same side of the plate against knuckleball pitchers. Teixeira also bats righty against R.A. Dickey and he actually hit a home run against Wright from the right side of the plate last year:

A few switch-hitters bat from the same side of the plate against knuckleball pitchers for whatever reason. I guess they see the ball better from that angle. Not every switch-hitter does it — Beltran hit a home run against Wright left-handed last year (video) — but some do. There was nothing special about Saturday. Teixeira’s not working on his righty swing or abandoning the left side of the plate. Nothing like that. He just always bats from the same side against knuckleball pitchers.

James asks: Have you heard any updates on people being able to purchase MLB.tv for only a single team at a reduced price?

Yes, you can buy single-team MLB.tv packages this year. Here’s the link. It’s $84.99 for the season, which is just high enough to get you to say “might as well buy the full package for $109.99.” The single-team subscriptions are still subject to local blackouts, so you can’t buy it in New York and expect to watch the Yankees or Mets. It’s for out-of-market fans only.

Sam asks (short version): Every Met starter but Thor has already had TJS … I’d be leery of long-term deals with these guys. If I were the Mets, I’d wait until each is 2 years from free agency, then begin negotiations. Even if you pay more year-to-year that way, you lessen the risk of big money tied to a blown-out elbow. Your thoughts?

I understand that sentiment and ultimately it comes down to the contract size and the team’s comfort in the player’s medicals. Risk vs. reward. All pitchers are an injury risk and some are riskier than others, including guys who have already had Tommy John surgery. Is the extra risk worth it for a pitcher of Matt Harvey’s caliber? Maybe! The Mets know his elbow better than anyone, remember. Given the team’s situation, I think it’s important for the Mets to gain cost certainty over their rotation for the next few seasons so their salaries don’t explode through arbitration. Buying out free agent years is a bonus. Guys who have Tommy John surgery do scare me. At the same time, if Nathan Eovaldi went to the Yankees tomorrow and said he’s take four years at $10M per season, would I want them to sign him? Hell yes.

Dan asks: Small Sample Size alert – last year Mateo hit 2 HRs total, and so far this spring he’s already hit one and another that just missed in 2 games. Was wondering if you have noticed any material changes to his swing or build? Wasn’t sure if there were any reports about him tweaking anything in the off-season.

He almost hit another homer Wednesday too, but it sailed foul. Jorge Mateo hit two home runs in exactly 500 plate appearances last year, and one of them was an inside-the-park homer (video), so he really only hit one ball out of the park. I haven’t heard anything about changes to his swing this spring, but he is a 20-year-old kid, so could have gotten stronger in the offseason. Also, Mateo has shown power in batting price — Baseball America (subs. req’d) said he has “above-average raw power evaluators see” in BP — so it’s in there. He just needs to refine his approach to tap into it. I haven’t heard anything about swing changes and I would tend to ignore the outcome of two random spring at-bats. Needless to say though, Mateo’s power output is worth monitoring going forward. If he starts mashing taters, good gravy.

Leah asks (short version): With infield shifts becoming much more prevalent in the game, it seems to me that the ability to play out of position is becoming a much more important skill. Going forward, will this sea-change impact prospect development and assessment in any significant way?

Teams have always looked at athleticism and the potential for a player to play elsewhere on the field, so I don’t think evaluation will change much. I do think it will impact development strategies though. The Yankees had Mateo work out at second base in Instructional League last year just so he could become familiar with the right side of the infield for shifts. A guy like Rob Refsnyder, who is learning third but has experience on the right side of the infield, could take to the shift well and that’s valuable. The Blue Jays used to put third baseman Brett Lawrie in short right field when using a shift because he was a former second baseman and familiar with that territory. The ability to play all over the field is more valuable than ever, and I think teams will begin putting in more time to teach players how to handle different parts of the field because of the shift.

Jason asks (short version): Assuming Didi keeps playing well or at least doesn’t regress over the next few years and Mateo progresses as he’s expected to, is there a scenario where Didi moves to third to make way for Mateo?

Sure, it could happen. I’d be more inclined to keep both Gregorius and Mateo on the middle infield to take advantage of their athleticism and defense, but if second base is not available, third is another option. Didi’s bat is probably a little light compared to what you would normally want from a third baseman, so I’m not sure if the Yankees will go for that. This is a question for another time, really. We’re a long way away from figuring out how Gregorius and Mateo can co-exist on the same roster.

Marc asks: Would it make the most sense to let Refsnyder begin the season in AAA where he can play regularly at 3B and 2B, with a little OF sprinkled in, for a month or so until he hits his way onto the ML roster? He could get some seasoning and develop into pretty valuable utility guy.

Ref. (Presswire)
Ref. (Presswire)

I don’t think Refsnyder has anything left to prove at Triple-A from an offensive standpoint. We know he can hit Triple-A pitching and it’s time to find out if he can hit MLB pitching. The third base experiment has thrown a wrinkle into this because you’d like to give him a few weeks of regular play at the position. That said, I think he’s ready to help the Yankees right now. It’s not like he’s going to play third base often anyway. I could go either way with this. I would understand if the Yankees wanted to send him to Triple-A for more third base work, and I would understand if they took him north and made him learn on the fly.

Eric asks: So I agree with your post saying the Yankees should go with Romine as the back up catcher and leave Gary Sanchez in AAA for 35 days for the sake of service time manipulation. I think it’s also fair to assume since Romine can become a free agent and catching depth in the league is so hard to come by that the Yankees will try and trade him. So without throwing any names out there (My Trade Proposal Sucks) what teams make sense for him, and what does the potential return look like?

The potential return would be close to nothing. The best case scenario seems like a George Kontos type — the Yankees traded Kontos to the Giants for Chris Stewart in 2012 — and I do mean the best case. In all likelihood it would be much less. Teams know Romine can elect free agency and they may decide to wait it out. As for teams that could need catching help, the Cardinals (if Yadier Molina’s thumb isn’t ready for Opening Day), Mets (if they decide to let Kevin Plawecki play regularly in Triple-A), and Brewers (if Jonathan Lucroy is traded) jump to mind pending those ifs. Catcher is a brutal position and it’s possible an injury will open up another landing spot for Romine, and that includes staying with the Yankees.

Sandeep asks (short version): If you could change the result of one play in Yankees history, what would it be?

Three plays immediately jumped to mind. One, Edgar Martinez’s double in 1995. Two, Luis Gonzalez’s single in 2001. And three, Dave Roberts’ steal in 2004. Those all happened in my lifetime, so they hit closer to home than, say, Bill Mazeroski’s home run in the 1960 World Series. Let’s talk those three plays out one at a time really quick.

Martinez double: If Edgar makes an out there, the Mariners are still down one run with runners on the corners and one out in the 11th inning. The next batter (A-Rod!) could have still tied the game with a fly ball. And even if the Yankees win that game, they only would have advanced to the ALCS, where they might get steamrolled by the Albert Belle led 100-44 (!) Indians. The Edgar double was the first time baseball crushed my soul.

Gonzalez single: The game was already tied at this point, so best case scenario is Mariano Rivera gets out of the inning — the D’Backs would have still had the bases loaded with two outs had Gonzalez struck out or popped out or whatever — and the game goes to extras with Randy Johnson on the mound and Rivera having already thrown two innings. (Mike Stanton pitched earlier in the game. I think Mike Mussina, who started Game Five three days earlier, would have been next out of the bullpen.) Maybe Mo’s error on Damien Miller’s bunt earlier in the inning is the play to change since it had all the look of a potential 1-6-3 double play:

Instead of having runners at first and second with no outs, Arizona would have had the bases empty with two outs. Even if Rivera only gets the force out at second — Miller was a 31-year-old catcher at the time, so he wasn’t flying down the line, a double play was a very real possibility — it’s still runner on first with one out instead of first and second with no outs.

Roberts steal: If Jorge Posada throws out Roberts, the Red Sox would have been down by one with the bases empty and one out in the ninth. Bill Mueller and Doug Mientkiewicz were due up. Rivera likely closes it out, the Yankees go to the World Series, and who knows what happens against the Cardinals.

Out of those plays, I have to go with Mo’s error in 2001. That’s the one I would change. Turn that error into a 1-6-3 double play and the Yankees are one out away — with the bases empty and the best reliever in the history of the universe on the mound, remember — from their fourth straight World Series title and fifth in six years. Yep, that’s the play. Someone go back in time and change that.

Mailbag: Refsnyder, Gardner, Teixeira, Mateo, A-Rod, Otani

Fifteen questions in the mailbag this week. As always, use the RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address to send us anything throughout the week. Mailbag questions, comments, links, whatever.

Gardy. (Presswire)
Gardy. (Presswire)

Jacob asks: How similar is Rob Refsnyder to Brett Gardner offensively? Would it make sense to put Ref in left if Gardy is traded or Hicks?

Refsnyder and Gardner might actually be pretty comparable offensively, at least on a rate basis. Refsnyder won’t be the same kind of weapon on the bases — even though he’s no longer a 40+ steal guy, Gardner still runs well and adds value with his legs — but the slash lines could be similar. Check out their 2016 ZiPS projections:

Gardner: .256/.330/.405 (104 OPS+)
Refsnyder: .248/.318/.395 (98 OPS+)

Refsnyder’s not that far off from Gardner in the eyes of the objective computer algorithm. You’re not getting the same speed though, and you’re definitely not getting the same level of defense either, even with Gardner’s glovework beginning to slip with age.

The Yankees have so many quality young outfielders right now — if not Aaron Hicks, then Slade Heathcott or Ben Gamel, or Aaron Judge, or Mason Williams once healthy — that I don’t see the point in putting Refsnyder in left field full-time. I say try to make him a utility guy who can play second, third, and some corner outfield in a pinch. It seems like Refsnyder would be most valuable in that role, not as a full-time corner outfielder.

Brian asks: Besides the obvious platoon of Hicks/Beltran/Ells/Gardy, is there another platoon you think could develop?

I think one could develop at shortstop, with Starlin Castro playing short and Refsnyder playing second against left-handed pitchers. That would depend on a) Refsnyder actually being on the roster, and b) Didi Gregorius struggling against lefties so much that it’s impossible to ignore. Gregorius did hit .308/.368/.397 against lefties in the second half last season, so if nothing else, that’s a reason not to platoon him. You want Didi to improve against lefties and sitting on the bench is no way to do that.

Aside from shortstop, I suppose we could see some kind of platoon behind the plate as well, assuming Gary Sanchez is on the roster. There’s no sense in platooning Austin Romine or Carlos Corporan. No offense, but they’re not worth the trouble. McCann has actually hit lefties quite well with the Yankees (124 wRC+), though a platoon would put Sanchez is a good position to succeed, and also get McCann off his feet with some regularity. He just turned 32 and the Yankees don’t want him turning into a pumpkin with three years left on his contract.

Dylan asks: Doesn’t a two year deal for Teixeira make total sense right now? Next year he can start at 1B while we learn how Bird will respond to the injury and if he is still a long term solution. The year after, in a perfect world, Bird will slide in to starting at first, while Tex can spell Bird at first, and primarily DH. It seems like a great transition plan to me. What would it take to get it done? Mike Morse-ish? 2 years $16 million? Maybe 2/$20?

Oh come on, Mark Teixeira‘s no Mike Morse. Adam LaRoche got two years and $25M last offseason and Teixeira should get at least that if he repeats his 2015 season in 2016. I wouldn’t sign Teixeira right now. Let the season play out and see what happens first. I wouldn’t want to lock myself into the 38-year-old version of Teixeira in 2018 without first seeing what the 36-year-old version in 2016 looks like. Re-signing him should be Plan A if it appears Greg Bird won’t be ready to take over as the starting first baseman next year, and it might take a two-year contract to get it done, but I wouldn’t jump on it just yet. I’m comfortable letting this one play out in a few months.

Anonymous asks: We’ve heard endless much ado about trading Brett Gardner. Is he basically untradeable at the moment (wrist)?

I’ve come to realize no player is truly untradeable these days, but no, Gardner is not untradeable. He’s still a solid player signed to a fair contract, and those guys will always have a market. Gardner’s wrist injury doesn’t seem serious — he’s hitting and going through all the normal drills — and while I’m sure teams would try to use it to drive down the price, I doubt it’s a deal-breaker. I don’t expect the Yankees to trade Gardner during the season anyway. Maybe they’ll try again next offseason should Hicks, Judge, or any of the other Triple-A outfielders really force the issue.

Brad asks: Since the Yanks have young up-the-middle talent under team control for a while, do you think they will give Mateo a shot in CF any time soon? We haven’t had a real CF (Ellsbury is nothing more than a 7 year mistake) since (the perpetually underrated and more HOF-worthy than the voters gave him credit for) Bernie Williams.

Mateo. (Presswire)
Mateo. (Presswire)

Yes to center field, no to anytime soon. There’s no reason to make that move until it’s absolutely clear shortstop (and second base) is locked up at the MLB level long-term. Jorge Mateo‘s a really good defender at short, and while I’m sure he’d be a fantastic center fielder thanks to his speed, you’d hate to push aside those shortstop defense skills too soon. He’s only 20 and he’s still in Single-A ball. I say keep him at shortstop until a position change is truly necessary. I do think Mateo could handle center defensively though. This is more of a “he’s more valuable at short” situation than a “he can’t play center” situation.

Chris asks: There’s been a lot of proposed ideas for the new CBA to eliminate or change the qualifying offer. And some have just as many questions as answers, but how about this: push the picks back to the second round. Teams would be less wary of giving up a second rounder, while teams offering the QO wouldn’t be quite as willing to do so for a second round pick. Less draft pool money is lost for the signing team as well but there is certainly still value in a second round pick. What do you think?

I like the idea. I actually mentioned it as a possible fix in a CBS post I wrote a few weeks ago. The team that loses the free agent would still get the same supplemental first round pick, but the signing team would only give up their second rounder, not their first. Teams would be far more willing to give up a second rounder (and the associated draft pool money) to sign a qualified free agent, even middling ones like Ian Desmond and Ian Kennedy.

I do wonder if this plan would be viewed as not enough of a punishment for the signing team, however. The signing team would get the big free agent and still have access to the top talent in the draft. That’s the whole point of the free agent compensation system, to spread the talent around. In theory, teams would get either the big free agents or the top amateurs, not both. Giving up a second rounder is basically a slap on the wrist. Clubs won’t think twice about losing it.

Andrew asks: Do you have more confidence as a fan heading into this season than last year?

I do, for sure. I was not sold on Gregorius as an everyday shortstop last year, I didn’t expect much from Alex Rodriguez (suspension), Teixeira (terrible second half), or Carlos Beltran (offseason elbow surgery), and I was much more concerned about the health of Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda. Granted, those two are still injury risks, but they each threw 150+ innings in 2015. That’s more than I would have guessed.

This year I’m much more confident in Gregorius, A-Rod, Teixeira, and Beltran being able to produce, and in Tanaka and Pineda being able to stay on the mound. Add in what could be a substantial upgrade at second base, 132 games of Aroldis friggin’ Chapman, plus a full season of Luis Severino, and I’m feeling pretty darn good about the 2016 Yankees. Are they world beaters? Nope. But I think they’re a better team today than they were a year ago.

Paul asks: Even though his days in the field are done, does A-Rod help in coaching someone like Rob Refsnyder at 3b? Or Sir Didi at SS?

Yep. He worked with Gregorius at shortstop last season, and a few days ago Rod told Erik Boland he plans to work with Starlin Castro at third base. I assume he’ll do the same with Refsnyder. Lots and lots of young players have said Rodriguez has helped them over the years. A-Rod’s no saint, that’s very clear, but he’s always had a great reputation for helping teammates, particularly young guys.

Simon asks: Chances are as close to zero as you can possibly get but what do you think it would take to get A-Rod into Monument Park either via plaque or number retirement?

Something huge. The Yankees would need to win the 2016 and 2017 World Series with Rod being the World Series MVP. Something crazy like that. I don’t think there’s any chance the Yankees will put Rodriguez in Monument Park given all the headaches over the years even though he’s unquestionably one of the best players in franchise history. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put No. 13 right back into circulation after he leaves, the same way they gave Scott Sizemore No. 24 right after Robinson Cano left. I think A-Rod deserves a plaque and his number retired. I have zero confidence in it actually happening.

Nicholas asks: I saw on MLBTR that Tejada could be waived by the Mets, should the Yankees be interested in him as a utility infielder? Or is he JAG?

I have no idea what JAG means, but Ruben Tejada is a pretty good backup infielder. He’s managed a wRC+ in the 89-99 range in four of the last five years, and he’s a fine defender at short and second. (His third base experience is limited.) I would greatly prefer Tejada to Pete Kozma or Donovan Solano or any of the other scrap heap infielders the Yankees signed this offseason. I’m not sure who the Mets would carry on the bench instead of Tejada (Eric Campbell? Dilson Herrera?), but if they do waive him, I’d like to see the Yankees pick him up even with the $3M salary. Middle infield depth is good.

Tejada. (Presswire)
Tejada. (Presswire)

Rocco asks: Maybe you know the answer to this: Posting system notwithstanding, is there anything preventing a team from trading a prospect/player and cash to a Japanese team to pry free a player they would not otherwise post? Like, say, a prospect and $20mil for Otani?

The posting system eliminated trades between MLB and NPB teams. It’s all because of Hideki Irabu. The Chiba Lotte Marines traded Irabu to the Padres (for a big pile of cash) and he was upset, so he refused to report. Irabu said he would play for the Yankees, so the Padres flipped him to New York. The transfer agreement between MLB and NPB was revised after the Irabu stuff, so trades aren’t possible anymore. The player has to initiate the transaction between teams in the two leagues now.

Vidhath asks: Regarding Otani’s posting, I thought I read that when he first decided to stay in the NPB instead of coming to the MLB right out of high school, they had a handshake agreement that they would post him whenever he asked. Is that still the case?

That is widely believed to be the case. Shohei Otani wanted to forego the NPB draft and sign with an MLB team out of high school a few years back, but the Nippon Ham Fighters drafted him anyway. He agreed to sign with them and play a few years (giving them a star to replace Yu Darvish) in exchange for the team not standing in his way when he asks to be posted. That’s the rumor, anyway. Who knows if it’s true. Otani’s been very open about his desire to play in MLB. It’s only a matter of time until he’s made available to MLB teams.

Erik asks: Hypothetically, if Shohei Otani were posted as a free agent now at 21 years old, is he not subject to International draft pool limits and exemptions for players 23 and under? Would this apply for KBO players as well? Thanks!

The bonus pools cover amateur players only. Otani and everyone else playing in Japan and Korea are professional players, so they’re not subject to the international bonus pools. Also, Otani would not be a true free agent under the posting system. He’d be free to negotiate with any team during the posting process, but the (Ham) Fighters would still control his rights. Those rights would then be transferred to the signing team. He’d never actually be a free agent, in that no one controlled his rights.

Evan asks: So apparently in-market streaming is going to be available this year but not through mlbtv? Do you have any details on exactly how I go about streaming in market games (is it available for spring training games).

Spring Training games are available on regular old MLB.tv with no blackouts. I watched Wednesday’s game on MLB.tv. As for regular season in-market streaming, I assume it will run through MLB.tv, and you’ll just have to sign up and pay an extra fee for the service. YES actually had an in-market service a few years ago that was great, and that’s exactly how it worked. Sign up through MLB.com, then watch on MLB.tv like any other game. You need to subscribe to YES to get the in-market streaming this year, so I assume when you sign up, you’ll be asked for your cable provider info. Whenever I get more concrete information, I’ll be sure to pass it along.

Eric asks: Is Aroldis Chapman eligible for a qualifying offer? My original understanding of the rule was that as long as a player wasn’t traded in season he was eligible to receive a QO. However, last year I remember reading Yoenis Cespedes wasn’t eligible to get a QO from the Tigers if he wasn’t traded which was what pushed Detroit to trade him. So whats the deal with the QO system with Chapman?

Cespedes had a unique contract. In his original four-year contract with the Athletics, it explicitly said the team had to non-tender him after the fourth year to make him a free agent. (Otherwise he would have remained under team control as an arbitration-eligible player.) The non-tender deadline is after the qualifying offer deadline, which is why Cespedes couldn’t get a qualifying offer. Chapman’s eligible for the qualifying offer. The suspension doesn’t change anything. Now, if the Yankees trade Chapman at the deadline, he will no longer be eligible for the qualifying offer. The player has to spend the full season with the team and Chapman will do that in 2016. Right now there’s no reason to think the Yankees won’t make him the qualifying offer.