With their three first round picks, Mayo has the Yankees taking Oklahoma HS C Jon Denney (26th overall), New Jersey LHP Rob Kaminsky (32nd), and Mississippi JuCo SS Tim Anderson (33rd). I’ve already written posts on Kaminsky and Anderson, and Denney is a bat-first catcher who can really hit but may or may not remain behind the plate long-term. The Yankees have been connected to all three players in recent weeks, especially Denney and Kaminsky. High schoolers and up-the-middle athletes. Pretty typical for the Bombers.

Other Mock Drafts: Baseball America (v1.0) and Keith Law (v1.0).

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2013 Draft: MLB.com’s Mock Draft v1.0

Marco Gonzales | LHP

Background
A Colorado kid from Fort Collins, Gonzales’ father pitched in the minor leagues for eight years and is a pitching instructor in the Rockies’ system. Marco won four state championships in high school and will leave Gonzaga as one of the best players in school history. He came into the weekend with a 2.57 ERA and a 91/22 K/BB in 98 innings this year.

Scouting Report
Listed at a modest 6-foot-1 and 185 lbs., Gonzales stands out for his pitching acumen and two above-average offspeed pitches. His fastball mostly sits in the 88-92 mph range and it might dip below that starting every five days rather than once a week. A fading upper-70s changeup is his put-away offering and one of the best individual pitches in the entire draft. His mid-70s curveball is an average pitch at worst and a second out pitch on most days.

Gonzales is a very good athlete who repeats a simple delivery and commands his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate. He’s very polished, arguably the most polished pitcher in the draft, and he knows how to set hitters up. He also holds runners and fields his position well. Gonzales can hit — he bats cleanup for the Bulldogs and plays first base when he doesn’t pitch — and would get drafted in the top ten rounds as a position player, but that doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things. His future lies on the mound and he draws rave reviews for his work ethic and makeup. There are tons of videos on YouTube.

Miscellany
Keith Law (subs. req’d) and Baseball America ranked Gonzales as the 23rd and 28th best prospect in the draft in their latest rankings, respectively. For what it’s worth, Troy Renck said he’s heard the Yankees are among the clubs interested in the left-hander, who doesn’t offer a ton of upside but is as safe as college pitchers come. Guys like Gonzales are popular first round targets for risk-averse teams, so the Bombers might not even get a chance to draft him when their top three picks (26th, 32nd, and 33rd overall) roll around.

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2013 Draft: Marco Gonzales

Jordan Paroubeck | OF

Background
Paroubeck attends Sierra High School in San Mateo, California, and he’s had a pretty great hitting coach this spring: Barry Bonds. His father is a childhood friend of the seven-time MVP, so he’s received private lessons all spring. Paroubeck is committed to Fresno State.

Scouting Report
Listed at 6-foot-2 and 185 lbs., Paroubeck is a standout athlete with loud tools. He’s a switch-hitter with a quick and easy swing from both sides of the plate, and he’s shown very good power potential as both a righty and a lefty. I’m sure Bonds has been in his ear about the value of plate discipline and waiting for his pitch as well. Both Paroubeck’s speed and arm are above-average at the moment, allowing him to steal bases and be an asset in center field. He could slow down and wind up in a corner down the road, but that move is not imminent. Paroubeck is raw and needs plenty of refinement, but his upside is quite enormous. There are some more videos available on YouTube.

Miscellany
Keith Law (subs. req’d) and Baseball America ranked Paroubeck as the 52nd and 62nd best prospect in the draft class in their latest rankings, respectively. He’s a little bit of a project just because he’s so raw, but anytime you have a true switch-hitter with power potential from both sides of the plate to go along with defensive skills, he’ll get drafted in the top round or two. The Yankees adore up-the-middle athletes and they have three early picks (26th, 32nd, 33rd), but I think grabbing Paroubeck with their second rounder (66th) would be ideal. He might not last that long though.

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2013 Draft: Jordan Paroubeck

The Yankees have three first round picks, and Law has them selecting Stanford OF Austin Wilson (26th overall), Oklahoma HS C Jon Denney (32nd), and Arizona HS SS Dustin Peterson (33rd). Wilson was a big name a few years ago, but he wound up on campus and was expected to be a top ten pick before suffering a stress reaction in his elbow. He’s a tool shed who needs some work. Denney, who has been connected to New York before, is an offense-first catcher while Peterson a solid athlete who is likely to remain on the middle infield.

Law says the Yankees have been heavily connected to high school players with these top three picks, and that’s not surprising. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer loves toolsy prep players. He does mention the team would love to see a top college arm fall into their laps with one of these picks, however.

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2013 Draft: Keith Law’s Mock Draft v1.0

Tom Windle | LHP

Background
A Minnesota kid who turned down the White Sox as 28th round pick in 2010, Windle pitched to a 2.41 ERA with 72/28 K/BB in 82 mostly relief innings for the University of Minnesota during his first two years on campus. He shined as a starter in the Cape Cod League last summer, and this spring he has 1.76 ERA with 78 strikeouts and 23 walks in 81.2 innings as a starter for the Gophers. Windle threw the school’s first nine-inning no-hitter back in March.

Scouting Report
Listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 lbs., Windle is a three-pitch left-hander with varying reports on his secondary stuff. His fastball sits in the 88-93 mph range as a starter and closer to 94-95 mph out of the bullpen. Depending on the day, his low-80s slider and low-80s changeup will look like out pitches or inconsistent works in progress. Windle has athleticism but he doesn’t use his lower half well, plus his delivery has some recoil. His future could lie in the bullpen even though his command is solid. There are plenty more videos on YouTube.

Miscellany
Baseball America and Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked Windle as the 46th and 60th best prospect in their draft in their latest rankings, respectively. Even though he doesn’t have much (if any) physical projection remaining, Windle offers quite a bit of upside if he can iron out his offspeed pitches and pair both with his fastball on an every-start basis. The fallback option is a lefty reliever who might be something more than a specialist because of the changeup. The Yankees have made it clear they value strong performance on the Cape, the premium wood bat collegiate league, so Windle is very likely on their radar.

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2013 Draft: Tom Windle

(ECCC Baseball)

Tim Anderson | SS

Background
Primarily a basketball player at Hillcrest High School in Tuscaloosa, Anderson went undrafted in 2011 and headed to East Central Community College in Mississippi. He came into the weekend hitting .503/.564/.911 with nine homers and 36 steals in 45 games this spring, and he’s committed to attend the University of Alabama at Birmingham next year.

Scouting Report
Listed at 6-foot-1 and 175 lbs., Anderson is an excellent athlete whose best present tool is his speed. He has bat speed and a level swing from the right side, but he doesn’t use his lower half well and hasn’t shown much power. He’s basically a slap hitter at this point. Defensively, Anderson is one of the few players in this draft with a legitimate chance to remain at shortstop long-term thanks to his quick feet and reactions. His arm leaves something to be desired and his overall game is raw for a college sophomore because he’s only been playing baseball full-time for two years. The speed, swing, and pure athleticism point to a very high ceiling but also a lot of risk.

Miscellany
Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked Anderson as the 34th and 43rd best prospect in the draft in their latest rankings, respectively. The Yankees love those toolsy up-the-middle athletes, so Anderson is right up their alley. He needs a lot of work and won’t climb the ladder all that quickly despite being two years removed from high school, so it’s fair to consider him a project. The athleticism will get him drafted early despite that lack or refinement, and the Yankees have three picks right at the end of the first round (26th, 32nd, 33rd).

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2013 Draft: Tim Anderson

Phil Ervin | OF

Background
Ervin was a three-sport athlete who played for state championship football and baseball teams at Leroy High School in rural Alabama, about an hour north of Mobile. He went undrafted in 2010 because he tore a knee ligament his senior year and didn’t play much, which landed him at Samford. Ervin has hit .339/.456/.637 with eleven homers and 13 stolen bases this spring after putting up a .347/.421/.518 line with 14 homers and 23 steals during his first two years on campus.

Scouting Report
Listed at 5-foot-11 and 190 lbs., Ervin is more of a safe college bat than a toolsy upside type. He has a real quick and compact right-handed swing that allows him to get the fat part of the bat on the ball and make hard contact consistently. Some excess pre-swing movement has hindered his ability to catch up to good fastballs. Ervin is just an okay runner who is likely to wind up moving to corner outfield spot down the line. He does some pitching for the Bulldogs and has a strong arm, and he fared well against high-end pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer. There are some more videos on YouTube.

Miscellany
Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked Ervin as the 19th and 50th best draft prospect in their latest rankings, respectively, so there’s a definite split of opinions. Kiley McDaniel recently reported the Yankees are “heavy” on Ervin late in the first round, when they have three picks (26th, 32nd, 33rd). Premium college performance guys are always highly valued but there isn’t a ton of upside here. Ervin is a righty hitting corner outfielder without any projection left in his small frame, and frankly that does not jibe with what Damon Oppenheimer has done with his early draft picks over the years.

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2013 Draft: Phil Ervin

The Yankees have three first round picks, and Callis has them taking Notre Dame 3B Eric Jagielo (#26), New Jersey HS LHP Rom Kaminsky (#32), and Oklahoma HS C Jon Denney (#33) with those picks. I wrote up profiles on Jagielo and Kaminsky, and Denney is the classic offensive-minded catcher the Yankees always crave. He’s a right-handed bat who projects to hit for both power and average, but although he has a strong arm and quick release, his defense needs work overall. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has drafted just one college bat higher than the third round during his tenure, so Jagielo would be bucking the trend with that 26th pick.

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2013 Draft: Baseball America Mock Draft v1.0

The Yankees, of course, have gotten burned in recent years by drafting players who turned out to be injured. A pre-signing physical showed an “abnormality” in first rounder Ty Hensley‘s pitching shoulder last year, and you can also go back to recent second rounders Sam Stafford (2011, shoulder) and Scott Bittle (2008, shoulder). Yeah, I think every scouting director of every club would love pre-draft physicals. Examining the 1,500+ draft eligible players every year is not feasible, but the top 200 prospects (according to MLB’s Scouting Bureau) are drug tested before the draft. Those guys should undergo a physical as well.

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Damon Oppenheimer speaks out in favor of pre-draft physicals

Those are the team’s first and supplemental first round selections during the Damon Oppenheimer era. He replaced long-time amateur scouting director Lin Garrett after Brian Cashman got his supposed autonomy following the 2005 season. Garrett was one of George Steinbrenner‘s guys and his drafts were amazingly unproductive in the early-2000s.

Anyway, the Yankees have done a miserable job of turning their early picks into big league players. This dates back a long way too, basically all the way back to when they drafted Derek Jeter in 1992. Only three of their first and supplemental first round picks since then — Eric Milton (1996), Mark Prior (1999), and Kennedy (2006) — have accumulated even 10+ WAR in the show. All three did so with other teams. Their most productive first rounders other than those three are Phil Hughes (7.6 WAR) and Joba. That’s it.

More recently, their top picks under Oppenheimer have been a mess of … everything. He had a brilliant first draft in 2006, a draft that probably set expectations unrealistically high. They selected 50 players that year, signed 36, and ten reached the big leagues. Six of them are mainstays around the league (Kennedy, Joba, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Mark Melancon, David Robertson). That’s a pretty tough act to following.

(NY Post)

Brackman in 2007 was a classic “good pick that didn’t work out.” It happens. He was the highest-ceiling prospect on the board but also maybe the riskiest, especially when you consider his asking price and all that. Looks silly in hindsight, but the Yankees really shot for the moon with that pick. New York was lucky Cole slipped to them the following year, but unlucky when he decided three years at UCLA was preferable to turning pro. New York offered the prep right-hander a well-above-slot $4M bonus, so they certainly made a huge offer.

The last few years have been a little more questionable. Their top selections from 2009-2011 were all considered reaches by the publicly available consensus rankings, and so far only Heathcott has made the team look smart. He’s had injury problems but is regarded as one of baseball’s top 100 prospective big leaguers. Cito Culver and Dante Bichette Jr., their top picks in 2010 and 2011, have been unmitigated disasters so far. The picks were widely panned at the time of the draft and it’s easy to see why. Those two haven’t developed in the pro ranks and don’t even have trade value at this point.

Hensley’s career is just getting started, so we can’t pass judgement on him yet. We definitely know what the Yankees have in their top selections from 2007-2011, and that’s very little. It’s Heathcott, that’s it. Brackman has since been released, Cole went to school and was drafted first overall by the Pirates two years ago, and then there’s Culver and Bichette trying to figure things out by repeating Low-A Charleston. Whole bunch of nothing, really.

The Yankees have three first round picks this year — three of the first 33 picks in the entire draft, the first time they can say that since 1978 — and nearly $8M worth of draft pool money at their disposal, and I think it’s absolutely imperative they improve their first round results. It’s not easy to do, especially when you’re always picking in the back half of the first round, but this first round talent drought is nearly two decades old. They aren’t even turning these picks into trade chips these days and that needs to change, especially given the club’s self-imposed austerity.

I think — and this is just my opinion here — the Yankees have made some very questionable early picks the last three or four years. I think they got a little gun shy after Brackman blew up and Cole walked away, causing them to go a little more conservative with their top selections. They targeted players they knew they could sign, and while that is important, it shouldn’t trump talent. These three picks this year are a golden opportunity to inject some life and impact talent into the farm system, and simply maintaining the status quo and doing what they’ve been doing in recent years obviously isn’t good enough. There was a shift in strategy following Brackman and Cole, and now there needs to be another one after these last few drafts.

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A quick review and some thoughts about the Yankees’ recent first round picks