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With some help from the Twins, the Astros have clinched the worst record in baseball this year. That means they’ll pick first overall in next June’s amateur draft, and unfortunately for the Houston faithful, there’s no clear cut top talent in this class. Stanford’s Mark Appel is the early favorite to go first overall, but he’s hardly Stephen Strasburg.

The Yankees, meanwhile, can still pick anywhere from 26th to 31st. In all likelihood, they’ll pick 30th overall for the second time in six years (there’s a compensation pick earlier in the round that pushes everything back one). They took Andrew Brackman with the 30th pick back in 2007. Of course that pick could be surrendered as compensation for signing a Type-A free agent, say C.J. Wilson. The Yankees are also guaranteed to have the 89th overall pick after failing to sign second rounder Sam Stafford this summer.

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Via John Manuel, MLB has announced that the 2012 amateur draft will be held on June 4th-6th. The actual draft date isn’t terribly interesting (it’s the first full week of June, as usual), but it is interesting in the case of Ryne Stanek.

Stanek, a sophomore right-hander at Arkansas, was born on July 21st, 1991, so he’ll celebrate his 21st birthday 46 days after the draft. MLB rules stipulate that a player must turn 21 within 45 days of the final day of the draft to be draft-eligible as a sophomore. He missed the cutoff by one stupid day. Stanek has legit first round ability thanks to his projectable frame (6-foot-4, 180 lbs.), mid-90′s gas, and three offspeed pitches, but he’ll have to wait another year to cash in on his talent. Poor kid got hosed.

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Update (Aug. 27th): Just to tie up some loose ends, Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Hebert received a $148k bonus while Maher received $300k. That’s what I figured, low six-figures. Again, solid deals late in the draft.

Original Post (Aug. 15th): Via K. Levine-Flandrup, the Yankees have agreed to terms with both 27th rounder Chaz Hebert and 38th rounder Joey Maher. The former is a high school lefty from Louisiana, the latter a high school righty from New Hampshire. No word on the money, but both figure to have received six-figure bonuses.

Maher is the better prospects of the two, a 6-foot-5, 185 lb. sinker-baller that still sits in the mid-to-high-80′s with the fastball and is still working on a breaking ball. Baseball America (subs. req’d) said that one evaluator dropped a Derek Lowe comp on him. Hebert is a bit smaller at 6-foot-2 and 180 lbs., but he generally sits in the low-90′s with his heat. “His slow curveball is well below-average, lacking velocity and at times resembling an eephus pitch,” said Baseball America. Both guys are great late-round fliers, there’s nothing to lose here but money.

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Did Brackman screw things up for future drafts? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

This past Monday was the signing deadline for 2011 draft picks, and according to Baseball America‘s free database, the Yankees signed 23 of their 50 picks. That’s a little light compared to a typical year, in which a team will usually sign around 30 draftees. No big deal, just a bit of an anomaly. What isn’t an anomaly is the amount of money the Yankees are spending to sign these players. As Jim Callis noted in his chat earlier this week, the Yankees spent just $6.3M on this year’s draft, just about 80% of the $7.6M league average. It’s the second straight year they’ve come in under $7M spent and third time in the last four years.

Just to provide some context before we go any further, here’s the signing bonus info for the last few years (source, source)…

That’s as far back as I can find the league info, and I can’t find a simple break down of the team-by-team spending this year. Just knowing that the Yankees spent below the average is enough anyway, their actual rank among the 30 teams isn’t of dire importance.

The Yankees went big in 2007. Andrew Brackman was ranked as the 7th and 21st best prospect available right before the draft by Baseball America and Keith Law, respectively (subs. req’d for both), and New York was able to grab him with the 30th overall pick. The Yankees gave him a four-year Major League contract worth at least $4.55M ($3.35M signing bonus spread out over six years) and potentially worth $13M, which at the time would have been the richest deal in draft history. They did this knowing that Brackman would need Tommy John surgery, which he had a week after signing.

They didn’t stop there though. The Yankees gave fourth rounder Bradley Suttle (billed as the top pure college hitter by Baseball America before the draft) a $1.7M bonus, at the time a record for the round. They also handed tenth rounder Carmen Angelini a $1M bonus, which was a then-record for a non-draft-and-follow player taken in that round. Those three plus more (other notable 2007 draftees include Austin Romine and Brandon Laird) resulted in that $7.43M spending spree, topped only by the Orioles ($7.67M thanks to the $6M they gave Matt Wieters) and Nationals ($7.62M).

Less than three full years later, the start of the 2010 season, all three of those guys looked like duds. Brackman missed 2008 with his elbow surgery then was a disaster in 2009 (5.91 ERA and 4.66 FIP in 106.2 IP in Low-A). Suttle had a fine year in Low-A in 2008 (.361 wOBA), but he missed the entire 2009 season due to a pair of shoulder surgeries. Angelini was a complete disaster, posting just a .271 wOBA in 888 plate appearances between 2008 and 2009. That doesn’t mean they were bad picks at the time of the draft, they just weren’t working out.

The 2008 draft was a special case for the Yankees, who obviously shot for the moon with Gerrit Cole but failed to sign him. They would have been one of the top spenders had he agreed to turn pro. Second rounder Scott Bittle didn’t sign because the Yankees didn’t like the medicals, so that contributed to the relatively small amount of spending they did. The two compensation picks in the 2009 draft turned into Slade Heathcott and J.R. Murphy, who received over-slot bonuses in part because the Yankees had little leverage. Had they not signed those two, they wouldn’t have gotten another compensation pick the next year. Their hands were tied, they had to sign those guys otherwise it would have been two straight drafts without two top picks.

In each of the last two years, once the futures of Brackman, Suttle, and Angelini became a bit more clear and the Cole/Bittle stuff had fully run its course, the Yankees have signed their first round pick for slot money*. Last year it was Cito Culver and this year it was Dante Bichette Jr, both of whom were drafted ahead of where the consensus thought they’d go. The Yankees dropped seven-figures on just one player in each year (Mason Williams in 2010 and Greg Bird in 2011), compared to 2006 and 2007 when they handed out three $1M+ bonuses each year.

Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told K. Levine-Flandrup that the team’s draft budget is flexible and they can drop big money on a kid if they believe he’s worth it, but we just haven’t seen those kinds of deals handed out the last two years. I honestly don’t think it’s a coincidence that the draft spending has gone down since it became apparent that Brackman, Suttle, and Angelini were starting to look like flops after the 2009 season. I can’t tell you who made the decision to scale back on the spending (Oppenheimer? Brian Cashman? ownership? all of the above?), but their recent drafting a spending habits certainly suggest that someone put the clamps down.

The Yankees have more money than every other team and haven’t been using it to their advantage in the draft these last two years. They still clean up on the Latin American market, which has been and always will be the backbone of their farm system (hooray for free agency!), but the draft is the most efficient way to add high-end talent to the organization. I think the Yankees have done a fantastic job in the middle and late rounds of the draft in recent years (where they consistently spend over-slot), but the effort with top picks, when the top talent is available, is clearly lacking. I think that 2007 draft scared them away from huge bonuses, as did Cole’s rejection in 2008. They won’t feel the impact of skimping out on top draft talent for another two years or so, but they’re going to feel it eventually.

* Bichette was over-slot technically, but only by $55,200. That’s not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, it might as well be slot money.

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Aug
16

2011 Draft: Closing Thoughts

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We can finally put a bow on the 2011 draft now that the signing deadline has passed, and according to Baseball America’s draft database (no subs. req’d), the Yankees signed just 22 of their 50 selections. That assumes the Chaz Hebert and Joey Maher report is correct but BA is still in the process of updating their info. A typical signing class is usually 30 players or so, maybe 35 in a good year, so the Yankees are a bit below that. It’s possible that some signings just haven’t been reported yet, especially some of the lesser prospects, but I can’t imagine it’s more than two or three guys, maybe five at the most.

The actual draft, all 50 rounds, is just step one of the process. Getting the kids under contract is another matter entirely, and now that we know who did and who didn’t sign on the dotted line, we can get a much clearer picture of the kind of talent the Yankees imported this year. Let’s digest it all…

  • Based on the info in Baseball America’s advanced database (subs. req’d), the Yankees spent at least $5.6225M on this year’s draft. That’s all the over-slot signings, but does not include Hebert, Maher, and seven others. Let’s round up and call it an even $6M. Compared to the last few years, when they spent around $7-8M, that’s light. I’d happily take one less brand name LOOGY per year if it meant pumping another $2-4M into the draft budget.
  • Not signing second rounder Sam Stafford stinks even though they’ll get that pick back next year. You’d always like to have the player now rather than pick later. However, if the medicals didn’t check out, then I can’t fault them for passing. There’s only so much homework you’re allowed to do before the draft. Remember, they ran into a similar problem with Scott Bittle in 2008, and they turned the compensation pick into J.R. Murphy while Bittle blew out his arm. The Stafford comp pick will be #89 overall next year no matter what, and they can’t lose that pick for signing a free agent. Here’s a list of all the comp picks in next year’s draft.
  • Among the guys they did sign, fifth rounder Greg Bird got the most money ($1.1M) and is probably the best prospect. I assume they’re going to try him at catcher (they announced him as a catcher at the draft), but I’m not sure how that will work out. If it doesn’t, his bat is going to have to carry him, and you’d like to see a little more well-roundness from your top draft prospect.
  • Dante Bichette Jr. ($750k), Matt Duran ($335k), and Bubba Jones ($350k) are all cut from the same cloth: bat-first prospects that are already relegated to a corner spot. Bichette is the best prospect of the trio and has the best chance to make it work in a corner outfield spot. That’s not saying much though. Jake Cave ($825k) is a bit more dynamic offensively and has a chance to provide some value on defense. Justin James probably has the best all-around tools package, but he’s super raw and a bit of a project.
  • The Yankees did a much better job on the mound, which has been a running theme the last few years. Jordan Cote ($725k), Dan Camarena ($335k), Hayden Sharp ($200k), and Rookie Davis ($550k) are all high school upside plays, with Cote and Sharp having the most potential but also the least amount of refinement. I like Camarena more than most, Davis less than most. Hebert and Maher are two more interesting arms, assuming they did actually sign.
  • And, of course, the Yankees used a few picks to refill the bullpen pipeline, grabbing power college arms like Mark Montgomery, Branden Pinder, Ben Paullus, Phil Wetherell, and Zach Arneson. They’ve done a good job of incorporating these kinds of guys into the big league roster in recent years, but they’ve still got some work to do with the starting pitchers.
  • I really liked the Yankees’ draft haul last year (if people bothered to look beyond the Cito Culver pick, they’d like it too), lots more than this year. Last year they got up the middle position players with upside, this year it was all corner bats, the easiest thing to find on the free agent market. This is nowhere near a weak class, but I’m left wanting more. Knowing what we do at this very moment right now, I just can’t give this year’s draft haul anything more than a C. It feels they drafted for need more than anything.

And finally, because I know everyone is waiting with bated breath, yes the Pirates did sign first overall pick and 2008 Yankees’ first rounder Gerrit Cole. He got $8M but not a big league contract, which blows my mind. How Scott Boras let that happen, I’ll never know. Anyway, the $8M is by far the largest up front bonus in draft history, surpassing the $6.5M the Buccos have Jameson Taillon last year. So what do you think, ~$4M from the Yankees in 2008 or three years at UCLA plus $8M from the Pirates in 2011? I think the kid made the right choice, I think it’s pretty clear in hindsight.

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Barring a late report (which is absolutely still possible), the Yankees did not sign second round pick Sam Stafford before Monday’s midnight deadline. Kirk Bohls reports that the deal hit a snag when the team found something they didn’t like in the left-hander’s arm and only offered him $200k, about half of MLB’s slot recommendation of $398.7k. Of course, Bohls did report that the two sides agreed to a deal worth $400k last month, so who knows. I’m guessing they agreed to the money, then the red flag popped up in the pre-signing physical.

Stafford, a southpaw from Texas, was the 88th overall pick. The Yankees will get the 89th pick in next year’s draft as compensation for the non-deal, and they’ll keep that pick no matter what. They can’t lose it for signing free agents, nothing. They won’t get another pick in 2012 if they fail to sign the player they take with that pick, however.

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Update (11:14pm): Via Jim Callis, the Yankees signed Cave for $825k. That’s the largest bonus they’ve officially given out this year, surpassing the $750k they gave Dante Bichette Jr.

Original Post (11:34am): Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees are close to signing sixth round pick Jake Cave. Cave, a high school outfielder from Virginia, was the 209th overall pick and the 182nd best prospect in the draft according to Baseball America. In their subscriber-only scouting report, they say “he shows bat speed, but he has a loop in his swing that could be a long-term problem.” They also say he figures to be stuck in a corner spot down the road. Cave is also a legit prospect as a left-handed pitcher, but the Yankees announced him as an outfielder during the draft. He’ll certainly get an over-slot bonus.

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Update (Aug. 15th): Via Jim Callis and Kendall Rogers, the Yankees have signed Camarena for $335k. Very nice deal, reasonable price. As I say below, I’m a fan.

Original Post (Aug. 4th): Via K. Levine-Flandrup, 20th round pick Dan Camarena threw for the Yankees’ head honchos today, presumably in Tampa. I’m only posting this because I’m a big Camarena fan and apparently I’m not the only one; Baseball America ranked him as the 138th best prospect in the country before the draft. In their subscriber only report, they note that 6-foot-1, 205 lb. high school left-hander from San Diego throws 87-91 with “excellent feel for his changeup, which some scouts rate as an average pitch.” They also say he “already flashes a big league breaking ball” in his curveball.

Workouts for the bigwigs is always a good sign because if nothing else, it shows that both sides are at least considering pursuing a contract. The Yankees inked third rounder Jordan Cote recently, and I think Camarena is the second best pitching prospect they selected this year. I’d like to see a deal get done because this is the kind of kid you could see coming out of college as a first or second rounder in three years.

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Via Kevin Gray, the Yankees will not sign 36th round pick Ryan Thompson, with the right-hander saying “we were pretty far apart.” Thompson, a draft-eligible sophomore out of Franklin Pierce, was not a 36th round talent. The former UConn Huskie throws his sinker in the 89-92 mph range and backs it up with a slider and a changeup. He has a starter’s build and some projection left (6-foot-3, 190 lbs.), and he held his velocity deep into games. Thompson was expected to go somewhere in the 5th-8th round range and I was a fan, seems like a guy that could take some big steps forward with pro instruction (like a David Phelps). Alas, the price was was apparently not right.

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Via Kendall Rogers, the Yankees will sign 25th rounder Adam Smith for $157k tomorrow. That’s obviously a lot more than the typical 25th rounder receives. Smith was both a third baseman and reliever at Texas A&M, but the Yankees announced him as a right-handed pitcher during the draft and I assume that’s what they plan to do with him. He’s a hard thrower but is also pretty raw, not unexpected from a two-way college player.

The draft signing deadline is next Monday, and the Yankees have only signed about 17 of the 50 players they’ve selected so far. I’m sure they’ll get another 12-15 or so locked up in the coming days, a pretty typical signing class.

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