Archive for Draft

Jun
09

2011 Draft Review: Part One

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It was a tale of two drafts for the Yankees. They started it off with a curious pick, taking Dante Bichette Jr. with the 51st overall selection after rumors swirled about their interest in several high-priced players that were still on the board at the time. What happened after that was a bit out of the norm. Day Two (rounds 2-30) and Day Three (31-50) had entirely different feels and apparent philosophies, so it doesn’t make sense to lump them into one recap. This is the first of two parts, the second will be along a little later.

Fourth round pick Matt Duran. (Photo Credit: Vincent DiSalvio, The Journal News)

Day Two: Power & Size

Let’s rewind to early-March, when John Sickels of Minor League Ball interviewed Yankees’ VP of baseball ops Mark Newman…

SICKELS: What about your weaknesses?

NEWMAN: Corner players with power. We have (Brandon) Laird who is a solid prospect, but we are thin for corner bats otherwise in the system. We always try to take the best players available in the draft and on the international market, and doing that can result in positional imbalance. We’re aware of it, but we would rather get as many high-end athletes as we can and worry about the rest of it later. In a perfect world you get both, of course, high-end guys who fill up the slots you need to fill.

It was pretty obvious during the first 30 rounds of the draft that the Yankees were trying to address that lack of corner power bats, just like they tried to address the lack of up-the-middle athletes in 2010. In addition to Bichette, the Yankees also took high school power hitters in first/third baseman (and local kid!) Matt Duran (4th round) and catcher/first baseman Greg Bird (5). Both are bat first players that can hit and hit with authority, but they aren’t expected to provide much value elsewhere. Prep first baseman Austin Jones (7) and Arizona State first baseman Zach Wilson (21) also fit that mold. JuCo outfielder Tyler Molinaro (15) offers pop from the left side, but he also has some athleticism and can contribute with the glove.

The two big position player prizes from Day Two are high school outfielder Jake Cave (6) and JuCo outfielder Justin James (13), son of Dion. The Yankees were connected to Cave pretty much all spring, opting to take him as a hitter rather than as a left-handed pitcher, where he’s also a quality prospect. He has some bat speed but also some swing question marks, projecting as more of a doubles guy. James shows huge power in batting practice and high-end foot speed, but he’s raw because he quit baseball to focus on basketball late in his high school career. Cave has to be bought away from LSU and James is just risky, but both offer upside and the ability to provide value on both sides of the ball.

When they weren’t taking power hitting players at corner positions, the Yankees were selecting pitchers, and big ones. Lefty Sam Stafford (2) joins righties Jordan Cote (3), Phil Wetherell (8), Jonathan Gray (10), Hayden Sharp (18), Jordan Foley (26), and Scott Hoffman (29) as hurlers that stand 6-foot-4 or taller, with Sharp topping the group at 6-foot-6. Four others check in at 6-foot-3. In addition to size they all share velocity, all capable of throwing in the low-90′s. Sharp again tops the group in this category; he’s run it up as high as 98 this spring.

However, despite all of these big pitching prospects, many of them are just relievers. Zach Arneson (9), Ben Paullus (19), Nik Goody (22), Brooks Belter (25), John Brebbia (30), and Wetherell were all relievers in college while Gray and Brandon Pinder (16) project to be the same in pro ball. That’s eight of the 21 pitchers they selected on Day Two. The best of the bunch is Wetherell, who sits 92-95 with a legitimate swing-and-miss splitter. Arneson sports a big time fastball (up to 96) but little in the way of secondary pitches, while the others are generic high-80′s/low-90′s guys trying to figure out a second pitch.

Second round pick Sam Stafford. (Photo Credit: Bill Calzada, The San Antonio Express-News)

Now that I’ve had some time to look things over, I consider Stafford the best pitching prospect the Yankees selected in the entire draft. Southpaws that have shown 95-96 mph velocity with a curveball that can be unhittable at times are a rare breed, he just has to figure out a way to have both at the same time and work on his overall consistency. Starter Corey Maines (23) is a garden variety sinker-slider guy and Matt Tracy (24) was a two-way player at Mississippi, so his mound experience is limited.

The starting pitchers are going to have to come from the high schoolers, a group led by Cote, Sharp, Mark Montgomery (11), Rookie Davis (14), Matt Troupe (17), Dan Camarena (20), and Chaz Hebert (27). Cote is the best prospect of the group in terms of projection and upside, but it’ll take an above-slot bonus to pry him away from Coastal Carolina. He’ll sit in the low-90′s and show two distinct breaking balls, though finding consistent mechanics and turning some raw tools into baseball skills is the challenge that lies ahead. Camarena is the best prospect of the bunch in terms of present day ability; he’s a legitimate three pitch left-hander with command of a low-90′s fastball and an advanced changeup. A San Diego commitment must be bought out to get him to turn pro. Davis has garnered some attention as a low-90′s fastball/developing slider righty, but there’s some Melky Cabrera Syndrome going on here. He’s getting hyped up because he has a cool name.

From here, it appears that the Yankees went into Day Two with an agenda to find power hitters and power relievers, and that’s exactly what they did. Most of the big bat guys figure to wind up at first base though, which could lead to a logjam, but we’re a long way from worrying about that. Cote, Sharp, and Camarena are three very interesting arms that may or may not sign (I’m guessing they get Cote and at least one of the other two), but they’re all several years off. The college relief crop is deep enough that one or two of those guys will end up viable big league options down the road. The glaring weakness here is the overall lack of significant upside outside of James, Stafford, Cote, and Sharp.

Day Two of the draft wasn’t great for New York but by no means was it a total loss or anything like that. I don’t necessarily agree with hoarding useful pieces that appear to fit an organizational need more than anything else instead of gunning for players with star potential, but that’s what they did. As always, we can begin to really evaluate the talent influx once we see who actually signs, but the early returns from Day Two are somewhere between “okay” and “decent.”

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Jun
08

2011 Draft: Day Three Liveblog

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Days One and Two of the draft were … interesting for the Yankees, I think that’s the best way to put it. They eschewed the consensus “big names,” instead opting to draft to the beat of their own drum and select what we fans perceive to be “lesser” players in pretty much all 30 rounds so far. That’s not to say the Yankees completely botched the draft, far from it, but it definitely hasn’t gone down as we expected so far. A recap of all the team’s picks can be found here, and you can listen along to the last 20 rounds this afternoon via MLB.com’s Draft Tracker. The actual liveblog is after the jump…

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Jun
08

2011 Draft: Day Two Links

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Through two days and 30 rounds, the Yankees have yet to select a middle infielder in this year’s amateur draft. In fact, they’ve taken just nine position players total, and only two are projected to stick at an up-the-middle position long-term. That’s unusual, but I’ll talk about that more in-depth in tomorrow’s grand recap. For now, we’ve still got the final 20 rounds to worry about. The draft resumes at noon ET and can be followed on MLB.com’s Draft Tracker. Audio of the conference call is available through that link.  Based on last year, today’s liveblog should last “only” five hours, which sounds great after yesterday’s ordeal. Here’s a collection of links regarding the last two days…

  • Here’s what Keith Law had to say about the Yankees’ haul in his AL Day Two recap (Insider req’d): “I always expect them to shoot more for upside than they do; they did go for some with New Hampshire prep righty Jordan Cote (3) and Virginia prep player Jake Cave (6), listed as an outfielder (he’d be a corner bat with doubles power) but also a prospect as a left-handed pitcher. Greg Bird (5) can hit but is fringy behind the plate. Right-hander Philip Wetherell (8) is probably a reliever in pro ball. Right-hander Zach Arneson (9) from Lewis & Clark State has two average pitches and probably also goes to the pen.”
  • My favorite pick of Day Two: 20th rounder Dan Camarena, a high school southpaw from California. He reportedly sits 88-91 with his fastball and backs it up with a very good changeup and a solid curveball. I’m not sure if he’ll add any velocity given his almost maxed out frame (6-foot-1, 205 lbs.), but Camarena is lauded for attacking hitters and being aggressive. High school kids with three legit pitches are fantastic picks in the double digit rounds, especially ones that could have gone as high as the third or fourth round.
  • Last month, KLaw mentioned 18th rounder Hayden Sharp as a pop-up guy (someone that burst onto the scene this spring), noting that he has run his fastball as high as 98 at times while often sitting 93-96. That’s huge velocity from anyone, but especially from a high school kid with room to fill out his 6-foot-6 frame.
  • Joe and I talked about the concept of drafting makeup guys and how their work ethic could help them improve weaknesses in their game (especially on defense) on yesterday’s podcast, and scouting director Damon Oppenheimer pretty much confirmed that yesterday. He told Jack Curry that “talented kids who are willing to work at defense will succeed.” First pick Dante Bichette Jr. fits that mold, but so do kids like Matt Duran (4th round) and Greg Bird (5th).
  • Speaking of Bird, he played the whole “it’s a win-win situation” card when asked by The Denver Post if he’s rather turn pro or follow through on his commitment to Arkansas. Third rounder Jordan Cote had the same reaction when speaking with The New Hampshire Union Leader. You’ll hear a lot of that, but it’s just agent speak. Kids will cost themselves a few bucks if they come off as overly anxious to sign.
  • As for Bichette, Oppenheimer told Curry he doesn’t “think we’ll have any trouble signing him. He wants to play.” He might be under contract in time for the rookie level Gulf Coast League season, which starts in less than two weeks. Chad Jennings recapped the Joe Girardi-Dante Bichette relationship last night, in case you missed it.

You can see all of the Yankees’ selections right here. Probably should have mentioned that earlier.

Update: After running through Baseball America’s list of the top 200 draft prospects, the following players are still available …

  • Jake Reed, RHP, California HS (ranked 128th overall)
  • Dante Flores, 2B, California HS (148th)
  • Chris Mariscal, SS, California HS (168th)
  • Michael Cederoth, RHP, California HS (169th)
  • Pat Connaughton, RHP, Massachusetts HS (170th)
  • Ricky Jacquez, RHP, Texas HS (189th)

I wrote about Jacquez earlier this spring, and I’m a definite fan. He’s probably going to end up going to school though.

Update Part Deux: Here’s a great article on Cote from The Concord Monitor. It says he’s already asked the Yankees for more than slot money, which isn’t surprising. Slot for the 118th overall pick is somewhere around $250,000.

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Jun
07

2011 Draft: Day Two LiveBlog

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Now we’re talking. Day one of the draft is all about bells and whistles, MLB’s attempt to increase the popularity of the draft by broadcasting it and what not. That’s fine and I completely understand why they’re doing it, but unfortunately baseball’s draft just isn’t a made-for-TV event. Five minutes between picks is about four and a half too long, and frankly I don’t think any of us wants to hear the MLB Network announcers declare every pick great (in one way or another).

With that behind us, we’re back to the roots of the draft. All the picks from here on out will be made via conference call, which you can listen too via MLB.com’s Draft Tracker. The picks will come rapid fire, one after another, which is the way it should be. Last year’s day two liveblog lasted almost eight hours, so I hope your schedule is empty today. Here is the draft order, the liveblog is after the jump and begins promptly at noon ET…

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Jun
07

2011 Draft: Day One Links

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The Yankees used the 51st overall pick in the draft to select Dante Bichette Jr. last night, the fourth straight year (and sixth time in eight years) they’ve selected a high school player with their top choice. Much like the regular season, the baseball draft is a marathon and not a sprint, and there are still two days and 49 more rounds left in this thing. Rounds two through 30 will take place later today (beginning at noon ET), which I’ll again be liveblogging. Until then, let’s round up some links that recap day one and look ahead to day two…

  • It’s worth noting that the Yankees announced Bichette as a third baseman both at the podium and in the press release. He figures to move to left field down the road, but they’re going to see if he can stick at the hot corner first. Might as well, no harm in trying. If you want to follow him on Twitter, Bichette’s handle is @Dante19Jr.
  • Jason Churchill of ESPN broke down all of yesterday’s picks (first round, sandwich, Insider req’d), saying this about Bichette: “He has good makeup and is a future outfielder with a strong arm and some power potential. The hit tool is a question, however.” That’s a pretty big question when you’re talking about a corner outfielder.
  • Keith Law posted a winners and losers type of post (Insider only), and the Yankees made neither category. I guess that’s good. The winners were basically all the teams with extra picks, the losers the teams that really cheaped out (Braves, Rangers, Dodgers).
  • Within that same post, KLaw listed his best available players. Here’s the same from Baseball America (no subs. req’d). Of those players, it’s worth noting that Josh Bell may be unsignable and that Matt Purke’s shoulder is a huge, huge question mark. The Yankees have been linked to Dillon Howard though, and we’re well behind the point where his talent says he should have gone. I get the feeling that Bell will fall big time, into the double digit rounds. Just a hunch though.
  • MLB Draft Insider did a pass/fail post, giving the Yankees a failing grade for the Bichette pick. “There are far too many good talents still out there for this to be acceptable from the Yankees.” Well then.

The Yankees will be picking 28th in each round from this point forward (save for the silly compensation third round, which is all of one pick), so their first choice is 88th overall today. They’ve gone overslot for day two players consistently during the Damon Oppenheimer era, which is where they’ve had most of their success. I can’t imagine they won’t do the same today.

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Without a first round pick because of the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees did not pick until 51st overall on Monday night. They used that pick to take the son of a former big leaguer…

(Photo Credit: Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/Orlando Sentinel)

Dante Bichette Jr. | 3B/OF

Background
Obviously, Bichette Jr. is the son of former All-Star Dante Bichette, who hit .299/.336/.499 with 274 homers in a career that spanned five teams and parts of 14 seasons. Junior attends Orangewood Christian High School in Orlando, and he first came into the public eye when he helped his team to the Little League World Series in 2005. He’s committed to Georgia.

Scouting Report
A right-handed hitter, Bichette offers bat speed and huge raw power, though there’s a lot of moving parts in his swing and he often sells out for the long ball. He’ll have to cut down on the movement and shorten up the swing to avoid becoming an all-or-nothing hitter. They won’t be small tweaks. Although he played third base in high school, Bichette is destined for left field long-term because he lacks the quickness needed for the infield. His arm is strong, but the 6-foot-1, 215 pounder isn’t a great runner and only figures to slow down as he gets older. Here’s some video.

Miscellany
Following the pick, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Bichette “possesses the desire and drive to be a special major leaguer” with the “potential to hit for big power in the middle of the order,” which is kinda what he has to say. The Bichettes are close friends of the Girardis, and in fact Joe’s son is named Dante after his former Rockies’ teammate. That has nothing to do with anything, but I figured it was worth a mention.

Unless he shows big time improvement in the field, Bichette is only going to offer value at the plate. That said, his power is very real, some of the best in the draft, and that’s a tool that’s getting harder and harder to find these days. There’s just not much to like about the rest of the package. Dante Jr. is a limited player, and frankly the skill set sounds a whole lot like what Shelley Duncan brought to the table when he was drafted. I have no idea what kind of money we’re looking at here, but MLB’s slot recommendation for the 51st overall pick is approximately $695,000. I can’t imagine Bichette’s bonus would deviate much from that, if at all.

Baseball America ranked him as the 108th best prospect in the draft, though he did not make Keith Law‘s latest top 100 draft prospects list.

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Jun
06

2011 Draft: Day One LiveBlog

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Tonight’s draft broadcast will begin at 7pm ET on MLB Network (simulcast on MLB.com), and from the looks of things, it’ll last about four hours. A total of 60 picks will be made tonight, covering the first and supplemental first rounds. The Yankees will be making just one pick (51st overall) tonight while the Rays lead the way with nine (!!!). The Tigers are the only team that will not make a pick tonight, their first rounder went to the Red Sox for Victor Martinez. The full draft order can be found here.

Use this to talk about all things draft. The regular nightly open thread can be found here for everything else. Please follow our ground rules and keep your conversations in the appropriate places (same rules as last year, no sense in re-posting them). The next three days will be both hectic and fun, so thanks for helping keep things orderly. Fun starts after the jump…

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See you in about eight years, Gerrit. (Flickr user boomer-44 via Creative Commons license)

The draft begins at 7pm ET tonight and can be seen on MLB Network, and of course I’ll be liveblogging the whole shabang right here. The top three picks are pretty much settled: UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole will go first overall to the Pirates, Rice 3B Anthony Rendon will go second to the Mariners, and UCLA RHP Trevor Bauer will go third to the Diamondbacks. That could still change, but it seems unlikely. I’m not 100% certain, but I do believe Cole and Bauer will be the first pair of teammates to both go in the top three picks of the same draft in history. Rice RHPs Phil Humber and Jeff Niemann went third and fourth overall in 2004, respectively, so Cole and Bauer would replace them as the highest drafted teammates. At least I think they will, like I said I’m not certain.

Anyway, with a few hours to go, here’s some miscellaneous draft links to keep you occupied. All of our draft content here can be found right here

Oppenheimer On The 51st Pick

“It’s a lot harder,” said amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to George King when asked about not picking until 50 other players are already off the board. “When you pick higher, you can center in on a guys and get multiple looks. Now, with all the supplemental picks, you don’t have a clue what [other teams] will do … We will try to find the best available guy we can. It doesn’t matter if it’s high school or college.”

Final Mock Drafts

Both Jim Callis and Keith Law posted their (presumably) final mock drafts earlier today and revised them this afternoon. Callis’ list of picks is free but the analysis is behind the pay wall. KLaw’s mock is behind the iron curtain of Insider, but MLBTR provided a nice little recap. Kevin Goldstein’s mock draft is behind the Baseball Prospectus subscriber wall, though I can tell you that he has the Yankees taking high school outfielder Williams Jerez with that 51st overall pick. I wrote about him here, though I wouldn’t be completely in love with that pick. That’s not to say it would be bad, Jerez’s talent is worthy of that draft spot, he’s just a little too raw for my liking.

Draft Chats

In his marathon chat this morning, Frankie Piliere reiterated the Yankees’ interest in four high school players: RHP Dillon Howard, SS Brandon Martin, 3B/OF Tyler Goeddel, and LHP Jake Cave. We’ve heard that before. He adds that they’ll probably take high school OF Josh Bell if he’s still available, unless they truly believe he won’t sign. Law, meanwhile, said he believes that Goeddel will be off the board before the Yankees’ pick in his chat this afternoon. That would bum me out, I’m a fan of the kid. Barring something completely unexpected, the Yankees are very likely to take a prep player with that 51st overall pick. I approve.

Draft Things To Know

I enjoyed this post from David Cone favorite Jeff Sullivan, which breaks down some of things you should know heading into the draft if you’ve never been here before. I have one thing to add: “A ‘projectable’ player is tall and skinny.” That last part is important. If a player is tall and has already filled out, then he has “a good body.” This is of paramount importance, I assure you.

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Jun
06

Shadowing the Sickels’ Mock Draft

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(Photo Credit: Andrew Stanfill, The Independent Florida Alligator)

Every year, right before the draft, John Sickels over at Minor League Ball holds a community mock draft where his readers act as scouting directors and made picks for the 30 teams. I acted as the Yankees’ scouting director way back in 2007, and although it was fun it was also extremely time consuming. No way will I do that again. Instead I’ll continue to do what I’ve been doing in the three years since, reviewing the picks made for the Yankees and saying who I would have taken. Best of both worlds.

They did four rounds this year (first, sandwich, second, third), so the Yankees made three picks. They didn’t have one in the first round, but here’s what happened afterwards…

First Pick, Sandwich Round, #51 Overall
Mock Draft: Derek Fisher, OF, Pennsylvania HS
My Pick: Tyler Goeddel, 3B/OF, California HS

Fisher’s a fine pick here, I just prefer Goeddel. I’m a big Hudson Boyd fan (and a fan of high school pitchers in general), so it was tough to leave him on the board (he went the very next pick). Goeddel has the whole hitting thing figured out (at least as much as a high school kid reasonably could), you’re just projecting on the power. Fisher has the power and you’re counting on him learning how to hit breaking balls, which is very tough to do. I would be happy if the Yankees landed either player later tonight, it’s just personal preference here. Everything you need to know about Fisher and Goeddel can be found here and here, respectively.

Second Pick, Second Round, #88 Overall
Mock Draft: Nick Burdi, RHP, Illinois HS
Mike’s Pick: Carl Thomore, OF, New Jersey HS

After missing out on Fisher’s power in the first round, Thomore more than makes up for it here. Pure homerun hitters are in short supply these days, so I wanted to get at least one early, and I mean a legitimate prospect and not a Kyle Roller type (no offense to him). Pitches that break aren’t a huge concern with Thomore either, so I’m very pleased to get two high school bats with upside (and different skill sets) early on. Here’s my write-up.

Burdi is a risky but potentially high reward pick. He showed huge velocity in showcases last summer (like, 95-97 consistently), but he missed some time this spring and hasn’t been the same since. He spent most of his senior year pitching anywhere from 83-93 mph, and his slider varied from unhittable to unusable. Given the declining stuff plus a commitment to Louisville and reports of first round bonus demands, I would have waited a while before pulling the trigger on a guy like Burdi.

Third Pick, Third Round, #118 Overall
Mock Draft: Rookie Davis, RHP, North Carolina HS
Mike’s Pick: Nick Maronde, LHP, Florida

The Davis pick is interesting in that he doesn’t really appear to be much of a prospect. I had never heard of him before and he’s not on any of the top draft prospect lists from the regular publications (Baseball America, Keith Law, etc.). Google led me to this year-old article that may or may not still be valid. Maybe everyone completely missed Davis and he’s some kind of hidden gem, maybe he’s just a friend of whoever acted as the Yankees’ scouting director in the mock draft, maybe he’s something else.

Anyway … I don’t like that the first pitcher I took is a reliever, but Maronde is a prime candidate to be transitioned back into the rotation. His fastball sits 93-96 in relief but a tick lower when he starts, and he backs it up with both a quality slider and a changeup. Those three pitches are why he’s a candidate to start. Maronde’s command came apart a bit when started for the Gators, but I think it’s worth another shot (since my neck isn’t on the line). Worst case scenario, he goes back to being a shutdown lefty reliever. Around these parts, that’ll get you $4M a year without even having to pitch!

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Tomorrow’s the big day, so Keith Law posted his updated list of the top 100 draft prospects this weekend (Insider req’d). UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole will go first overall and occupies the top spot, unsurprisingly. The 51st overall player in the rankings is Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson, a guy with four pitches known more for his pitchability than his raw stuff. The Yankees don’t want the 51st best talent in the draft though, they’re hoping a top 20 guys falls, as we all should.

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