Jim Callis of Baseball America discussed three players likely to fall in next month’s draft because of signability concerns. I profiled two of the players – CF Donovan Tate (Georgia HS) & RHP Jacob Turner (St. Louis HS) – earlier this year. Tate is a supreme athlete but is still learning to convert those physical gifts into baseball tools. He also has the added leverage of a football scholarship to UNC working for him. Turner has started to make good on some of the projection he offers, jumping from 89-91 earlier in the year to 95-97 down the stretch. The third player, California Texas HS LHP Matt Purke, wants a boatload of cash but offers an extremely live arm (92-94 mph heat with plenty of projection remaining) and is arguably the best lefty prospect in the draft. Any of the three would be a major, major steal for the Yanks at #29.
2009 Draft: Bittle out with arm injury
Via Inside The Grove, Ole Miss RHP Scott Bittle will not pitch in the SEC tournament due to an arm injury, and was scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews yesterday. Bittle was the Yanks’ second round pick last year, but never signed because the team found some red flags in his shoulder. Arguably the best closer in the nation coming into the year, Bittle moved into the Rebels’ rotation midway through the season because starters are more valuable than relievers the team was dealing with injuries, and finished the regular season with a 2.17 ERA and a 68-22 K/BB ratio in just 45.2 IP.
Keith Law rated Bittle the 79th best prospect for the draft, and he was expected to be a second or third round pick this year thanks to his top-of-the line cutter. Obviously, his stock could take a huge hit depending on the severity of the injury. The Yanks will receive the 76th overall pick this year as compensation for failing to sign Bittle last year. (h/t KLaw)
2009 Draft: Yanks show interest in Renfroe
Via the fantastic ESPN Draft Blog, the Yanks have shown a lot of interest in prep shortstop David Renfroe, most likely for their second pick, number 76 overall. Renfroe, who hit .509 for South Panola HS (Mississippi), is an excellent athlete and a top two-way prospect. MLB.com’s scouting report says he has above average offensive potential and possibly the same on defense, and that his game plays up because of outstanding instincts. His father played professionally for nine years, so he’s also got good bloodlines. Here’s a clip of Renfroe going deep in a showcase game.
2009 Draft: Notes & Thoughts
The high school season is basically over, and the NCAA conference tourneys wrap up this week. That means we’re inching closer and closer to draft day. So here are some bullet point goodness to hold you over.
- Strasburg Watch: 94.1 IP, 54 H, 18 BB, 174 K, 1.34 ERA. With a 12-0 record in 13 starts, Stephen Strasburg has more wins than the Nationals (11-27), and his 174 strikeouts are just 52 fewer than the entire Nats’ staff, despite throwing 249.2 fewer innings. Acting GM Mike Rizzo has all but confirmed that the Nats will make the righty the first pick in the draft.
- While on the subject of the Nats, Rizzo also says the Nats will not go cheap with their second pick, #10 overall. Slot money for the tenth overall pick is expected to be around $2.1M, which means the Nats could spend close to $27M on their first two draft picks this year, nearly half their 2009 big league payroll of $54.9M. The current record for the most cash spent on one draft class is the $11.1M the Royals handed out last year.
- The Mariners are all over UNC 1B/CF Dustin Ackley at #2. He’s the best hitter in the draft class, and perhaps the safest bet in the class as well, even safer than Strasburg. Coming back from Tommy John surgery, Ackley has recently seen time in center field, which is where he’d be most valuable. The only knock against him is his moderate power potential, but there’s no shame in falling back on a Mark Grace-esque type of career. Peter Gammons recently sung the kid’s praises.
- The two top LHPs in the draft, high schoolers Tyler Matzek and Matt Purke, are rumored to be seeking bonuses upwards of $3M, which would be overslot outside of the top three or four picks. It won’t take much for one, if not both of these kids to go the Rick Porcello route and fall to the back end of the first round. Either would be an outstanding selection for the Yanks at #29.
- It looks like USC SS Grant Green caught the same draftitis bug that hit ex-Trojan Ian Kennedy three years ago. He’s hitting .374-.439-.579 and has hit just one homer in conference play (four overall), underwhelming for a guy who was considered to be one of the three best players in the draft back when the season started. There are serious concerns about his ability to stay at short, and if he has to move off the position his value takes a significant hit. Green could still go as high as sixth overall to the Giants, but I would not be shocked at all if he was still on the board when the Yanks’ first pick comes around.
- Jason Churchill of ESPN and Prospect Insider spoke to at least one scout that thinks the Yankees could pop prep catcher Luke Bailey at #29. You may remember that I wrote about Bailey two weeks ago. He was the consensus top high school catching prospect coming into the year, but recently had Tommy John surgery.
- If you put a gun to my head right now, I’d guess that the first five picks play out like this:
1. Nats: Strasburg
2. Mariners: Ackley
3. Padres: Donovan Tate, CF, Georgia HS (new owner makes a splash)
4. Pirates: Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Indy League (they love him, and they took him last year so they have the best medical info of any team)
5. Orioles: Aaron Crow, RHP, Indy League (this would give them the two best pitching prospects from the ’08 draft) - The Braves love their local products, so Georgia HS RHP Zack Wheeler seems like a slam dunk for them at #7. If Arizona State RHP Mike Leake makes it to the Diamondbacks’ back-to-back picks at 16 & 17, expect them to pop the local college product. Oh by the way, Leake’s 1.35 ERA (106.2 IP) would be an NCAA single season record, breaking Floyd Bannister’s mark (1.45) which has stood since 1976. It’ll be nearly impossible for him to maintain an ERA that low through the postseason, but it’ll be a fun story to follow.
- Bryce Harper’s season is over. His numbers were absolutely insane.
Just a reminder, you can check out the draft order at our 2009 Draft Order Tracker at anytime. Given the injury to Rickie Weeks, I suppose there’s a chance the Brewers could sign Mark Grudzielanek (resulting in another sandwich round pick for the Brewers), but I highly doubt that happens.
BA’s Mock Draft V1.0
Baseball America posted the first of several Mock Drafts yesterday, though it’s hidden behind the subscriber wall. I will tell you this much: with the 29th overall pick they have the Yanks taking Cal center fielder Brett Jackson, who’s a supreme athlete but has questions about his bat. Surprisingly, they have both Matt Davidson and Jiovanni Mier dropping out of the first round. I’d much prefer either of those two to Jackson.
KLaw’s Top 100 Draft Prospects
RAB fave Keith Law posted his list of the top 100 prospects for the upcoming draft over at ESPN yesterday, but you might have missed it because it was immediately buried behind a bunch of other stuff. Unfortunately, it’s subscriber only. Now that Dustin Ackley has shown he can handle the outfield post-Tommy John surgery, he’s climbed up draft boards and checks in at number two on KLaw’s list, behind only Stephen Strasburg. This year’s crop is very pitching heavy, and only four high school shortstops (a precious demographic) made the top 100. From the looks of it, it seems like Jiovanni Mier and Matt Davidson will be gone before the Yanks pick at number 29.
2009 Draft Preview: Damaged Goods
Baseball’s amateur draft has quickly become a highly competitive marketplace for talent. Just a few seasons ago only a handful of teams really flexed their financial muscles to acquire top talent in the draft, but as young players have taken over the game clubs have revamped their focus on the annual talent drive. Case in point: The Royals spent $11.1M on the draft last year, a new record, while other traditional tightwads like the A’s ($6.5M), Brewers ($8.4M), and Pirates ($9.8M) also ramped up their spending from recent years. The Yankees are no longer the only team digging for late round bargains, but that doesn’t mean they still can’t uncover talent in the late rounds.
One thing Damon Oppenheimer has shown in recent years is that he’s willing to gamble on players with questionable medical dossiers. Both Andrew Brackman and Mark Melancon were drafted knowing that it was extremely likely they would need Tommy John surgery, Damon Sublett was selected after an injury riddled junior year, and Joba Chamberlain was taken despite concerns about his knee, triceps and weight. Perhaps the best example of a player being drafted while he was injured is the late Nick Adenhart, who was the top high school pitcher in 2004 before blowing out his elbow just days before the draft. The Angels gambled on his upside and TJ’s success rate, handing him a $710,000 bonus as a 14th rounder before watching him grow into one of the best young pitchers in the game.
Here’s some players that are either hurt, or have another negative mark on their resume that could cause them to fall into the later rounds, an avenue a team like the Yankees could explore to land extra talent. Fun starts after the jump.
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