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Former Yanks second rounder Sam Stafford to miss season

“Also watch right fielder Ben Gamel, younger brother of Mat,” added Law. “Ben shows a lot of promise with the bat, with good ability to square up the baseball and plenty of hip rotation for future power.” I’ve always been a bit of a Gamel homer, so I’m glad that’s been validated some.

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Austin, Gamel among Keith Law’s sleeper prospects

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Spring prospect season is in full swing, starting yesterday with Keith Law’s organizational rankings. It continued today with his list of the game’s top 100 prospects (1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100) and top ten prospects by team (all Insider req’d). The Yankees placed four in the top 100, which was unsurprisingly topped by Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Matt Moore. Manny Banuelos checks in at #23 (down from #12 last year), Mason Williams at #34, Gary Sanchez at #55, and Dellin Betances at #83. Jesus Montero is ranked ninth, one spot ahead of another old pal, Gerrit Cole.

“When he’s right, he’ll show an above-average fastball at 90-94 mph (but was a tick below that in 2011), an above-average to plus changeup and a solid-average curveball with good two-plane break,” said KLaw about Banuelos, while noting that his trademark command was off last season. “Everything still points to Banuelos commanding the ball in the long term as he did before 2011, and much of the disappointment in his season is a function of our high expectations for him. He still projects as a solid No. 2, assuming his previous level of command returns.”

Williams’ ranking was a bit surprising, but in a good way. I’m pretty sure you won’t see him that high anywhere else this year. “[The] most impressive part of [Williams'] game in 2011 was the quality of his at bats, which improved over the course of the summer,” said Law. “[He's] barely begun to scratch the surface of his ability.” The biggest thing for Williams going forward is his size, not necessarily his tools. He just needs to bulk up and add some muscle to avoid having the bat knocked out of his hands by high-end fastballs at the upper levels.

The preseason hype machine was out of control with Sanchez last year, which is why it’s easy to think he had a disappointing season with Low-A Charleston. The attitude problems were disappointing, but the power and production certainly weren’t. “Sanchez’s first full year in pro ball had major positives and negatives — the bat is more advanced than anyone thought, and the glove is less so,” Law said. “He can really hit with present above-average power and projects to hit 30 to 35 homers a year down the road, having demonstrated a solid approach for an 18-year-old in full-season ball … He could be a star.”

Last but not least is Betances, who continues to look more and more like a reliever because he hasn’t improved his command at all in five years as a pro. “He’ll pitch in the low 90s but runs it up to 97 mph and would likely sit 94-97, if not better, in relief,” said KLaw, adding that his curveball and delivery are inconsistent. The latter contributes to his strike-throwing problem. “He’s 23 now, still not very experienced, but he has size and velocity you can’t teach. The lack of progress and athleticism make a bullpen role more likely than a spot in the top half of a rotation.”

Those four top Law’s list of the top ten Yankees prospects, followed by a surprising name at number five: Tyler Austin. There’s no write-up, but I have to think he believes in the bat and thinks Austin can stay at third base long-term to warrant a ranking that high. Jose Campos, Dante Bichette Jr., Austin Romine, J.R. Murphy, and Slade Heathcott round out the top ten. Ravel Santana is a top ten guy based on talent, but I have no problem with leaving him out given that devastating ankle injury. Law also published a list of ten prospects who just missed the Top 100 (Insider req’d), but no Yankees farmhands made the list. Just as a heads up, my Top 30 Prospects List is coming out next Friday, so hooray for that.

Update: ESPN NY has the full player comments for Banuelos, Williams, Sanchez, and Betances for free, so head over there to check them out.

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Yanks place four on KLaw’s top 100 prospects list

“I might be jumping the gun here, but I see a lot of star potential on their bottom few affiliates, including new acquisition Jose Campos from Seattle, to go with the two power arms from their Scranton club (Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances),” said KLaw with his obvious anti-Yankees bias. “The flaw in the system is the lack of near-in talent, especially position players, who could either help the big club soon or provide more fodder for trades.”

The Padres, Rays, and Blue Jays occupy the top three spots while the Marlins, Indians, and White Sox are the bottom three. The Orioles are 17th and the Red Sox are 18th, so five of the top 18 systems in the game (27.8%) are in the AL East. The Mariners, by the way, are right behind the Yankees at eleven following the addition of Montero.

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Yanks rank tenth in Keith Law’s organizational rankings

• The Jacksonville Daily News interviewed 2012 14th rounder Rookie Davis, who spoke about his offseason work, Instructional League, and getting his driver’s license. Some pretty neat stuff in their, so check it out.
• The New England Baseball Journal interviewed 2012 third rounder Jordan Cote about his offseason workouts with Kevin Youkilis, adjusting to life in pro ball, stuff like that.
• Yankees Fans Unite interviewed Low-A Charleston hitting coach Greg Colbrunn, who spoke about a number of the team’s lower level (and some upper level) prospects like Ramon Flores, Gary Sanchez, etc.
• NoMaas interviewed both Tyler Austin and Dante Bichette Jr., two of the club’s best position player prospects.

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MiLB Interviews: Davis, Cote, Bichette, Austin

The Yankees currently own three of the top 91 and five of the top 154 picks, with their first selection coming 30th overall. They didn’t gain or lose any picks via free agent compensation, and won’t because all the Type-A’s have signed. No word on what the team’s draft spending limit (courtesy of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement) will be yet.

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Baseball America’s Early Draft Preview

(Photo Credit: William Brooks via Examiner.com)

Zach Nuding | RHP

Background
A Texas kid from Haltom City — just outside of Dallas — Nuding wasn’t much of a pro prospect coming out of high school. He went undrafted after graduating in 2008, then joining the upstart baseball program at Weatherford College, a two-year school. Nuding served as the Coyotes closer as a freshman, then played in the Texas Collegiate League during the summer. He was drafted by the Pirates in the 37th round of the 2009 draft, but did not sign and returned to school for another year.

As a sophomore in 2010, Nuding established himself as the best pro prospect on the staff. He moved into the rotation and appeared in 16 games, striking out 65 with 35 walks in 78 IP. He led all starters with a 2.19 ERA, then again pitched in the Texas Collegiate League after the season. Baseball America (subs. req’d) considered Nuding the 37th best prospect in Texas prior to the 2010 draft, and the Yankees made him their 30th round pick, the 925th overall selection. He signed relatively late for $265k — after the Yankees got a longer look at him in summer ball — foregoing his commitment to Texas Tech.

Pro Career
Nuding appeared in just one game after signing in 2010, allowing two run in two innings with the rookie level Gulf Coast League Yankees. He was assigned to Low-A Charleston to open last season, and he pitched to a 4.48 ERA (4.26 FIP) with 82 strikeouts (7.51 K/9 and 19.5 K%) and 44 walks (4.03 BB/9 and 10.5 BB%) in 98.1 IP spread across 20 starts. He suffered an unknown but minor injury in late-July, and he was back on the mound in early-August. He made three rehab appearances in the GCL, then finished the season with one start for High-A Tampa. All told, Nuding struck out 91 batters (7.56 K/9and 19.7 K%) and walked 45 (3.74 BB/9 and 9.8 BB%) in 108.1 IP in 2011.

Scouting Report
The only player in the organization more physically imposing than Nuding is Dellin Betances. The right-hander is listed at 6-foot-4 and 250 lbs., but he’s probably an inch or two taller and 10-20 lbs heavier. His fastball can cash the check his frame writes, living in the 93-96 range with big time boring action in on righties. He’s been clocked as high as 98. Neither of Nuding’s offspeed pitches — a low-80′s slider and changeup — are consistent yet, but both have shown put-away potential at times.

Nuding’s delivery is a bit herky jerky and rough around the edges, leading to occasional control problems. He does pitch aggressively though, with a willingness to pound the zone when he’s in sync. The Yankees have used him as a starter so far in his career, but Nuding is likely to wind up a power reliever unless both the slider and changeup make some big strides. He could end up touching triple-digits as a one-inning bullpen guy. Here’s the only video I could find, though it doesn’t appear to be working at the moment.

2012 Outlook
The Yankees will send Nuding back to High-A Tampa to open the season, where he will continue to take the ball every five days as a starter. He’ll get another year before shifting to the bullpen permanently, at the very least.

My Take
The Yankees have built up this hilariously deep cache of power relievers with their late-round picks, and Nuding fits the bill perfectly. He isn’t the best prospect of the bunch, but he has the best fastball and arguably the most upside. I do love these big hard-throwing relief types even if they have less than stellar control and underwhelming secondary pitches because you can be an effective big league reliever with a huge fastball and just a show-me breaking ball. Grant Balfour, Matt Thornton, and Joel Hanrahan are doing it right now. Nuding has some movement on his fastball, and that will help a little. I don’t expect him to be all that great this coming season as a starter, but it’s all about getting experience and working on things. He’s a little too good for a sleeper, but don’t be surprised if he’s getting much more attention in like, 18 months.

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Prospect Profile: Zach Nuding

Delcarmen turns 30 in about two weeks, and he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2010. He split last year in the Rangers’ and Mariners’ farm systems, pitching to a 5.59 ERA in 38.2 IP. He owns a 3.97 ERA and a 4.01 FIP in just about 300 big league innings, most coming with Boston. It’s nothing more than a depth move for Triple-A Scranton, and he’ll join former teammate Hideki Okajima in the minors while the Yankees employ good pitchers in MLB.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yankees sign Future NL Closer™ Manny Delcarmen

(Beverly Schaefer / For the Times)

Note: This post was initially written prior to the Big Trade. With the Yankee rotation depth chart now seven deep at the Major League level, the likelihood of seeing David Phelps starting for the big league club at any point in 2012 has probably shrunk to nonexistent. Though in Phelps’ favor, with the recent departure of Hector Noesi he and rotationmate Adam Warren have become the de facto “next in line” at AAA should the Yankees indeed simultaneously lose three starting pitchers to injury.

Last winter, most of the non-”Killer Bs” buzz regarding Yankee prospects surrounded Ivan Nova and Hector Noesi, both of whom acquitted themselves rather well during their first full seasons in the big leagues. With Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances both expected to need further seasoning in AAA before getting the call to contribute at the MLB level full time, the two pitchers that we started hearing a fair amount about last offseason and who now appear to be next in line in the rotation pecking order when one of the Yankees’ presumed starting five inevitably goes down with an injury are David Phelps (who Mike profiled a little over a year ago) and Adam Warren (Axisa profile). Today I’m going to take a look at what the Yankees might reasonably expect out of the former.

I found myself intrigued by the now-24-year-old right-hander — who most prospect mavens have pegged as a back-end-of-the-rotation guy at best — after seeing John Sickels recently rank him aggressively at #7 on his list of top 20 Yankee prospects, saying the following:

“I like (Phelps) more than most people do. Has developed the secondary pitches needed to off-set the fastball, and was one of the few pitchers who didn’t get killed in the Arizona Fall League. Could be a fourth starter if given a chance.”

While “fourth-starter-upside” isn’t anything to get terribly excited over — and from what I gather, I get the sense that people aren’t terribly enamored of Sickels’ evaluations as it is — I don’t know that I’d automatically thumb my nose at a guy who could hypothetically settle in as a #4 starter in an MLB rotation.

Phelps was drafted by the Yankees out of Notre Dame in the 14th round of the 2008 draft, and was immediately put to work in short season Staten Island. Here’s a chart of his progression:

While I don’t think Phelps is expected to generate an overwhelming number of strikeouts should he make it to the bigs, it’s still decently impressive that he’s managed to sustain a 7.00+ K/9 ever since moving up to Charleston, while never allowing his walk rate to rise above 3 men per nine. Reasonable strikeout and walk rates combined with a HR/9 that’s never eclipsed 1.0 — even this past fall in the notoriously hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League — has helped Phelps keep his FIP below 4.00 every season. Based solely on his raw numbers, there’s a fair amount to like from this picture.

The other reason I wanted to examine Phelps is that, by virtue of playing in the aforementioned AzFL, we have access (albeit limited) to PITCHf/x data, which is installed in two of the league’s six parks. Poring through the data, I found the two games on the Phoenix Dirt Dogs’ schedule that had them playing in Peoria and Surprise and also coincided with two of Phelps’ eight starts.

On November 7 Phelps threw 5 innings of two-run, three-hit ball with three strikeouts, one walk and one home run. On November 17 Phelps threw 5 innings of two-run, five-hit ball with six strikeouts, no walks and no home runs.

Here’s a breakdown of the 134 pitches he threw:

So based on this data Phelps is a fastball-slider righty, who also won’t shy away from throwing a changeup ~8mph slower than his fastball, or dropping in a curve. In Mike’s profile from December 2010, he noted the following about Phelps:

“Once a scrawny kid that would sit in the low-90′s on a good day, Phelps has filled out his 6-foot-3 frame (190 lbs.) and now throws his fastball at 93-95 mph consistently. Minor league pitching coordinator Nardi Contreras made some minor adjustments soon after Phelps signed, leading to the improved velocity. He also throws a two-seam fastball right around 90 mph, a good curveball, and both a below average slider and changeup. The curve is the closest thing Phelps has to a strikeout pitch, but it still needs some more improvement. At the moment he’s a ground ball pitcher, but that can change if one of the offspeed pitches takes that step forward.”

I saw a lot of 89-91mph fastballs in the PITCHf/x data, and so I’m guessing Phelps’ arm was somewhat tired by the time he got to the AFL after throwing roughly 114 innings in 2011 in both rehab and Scranton (Ed. Note: Phelps missed close to three months this summer with shoulder fatigue, so that could have contributed to the diminished velocity as well). If Phelps actually does usually sit at ~93mph with his fastball, a strong early showing at AAA could make him a valuable trade chip come July. Ultimately, I don’t know that anything about Phelps screams dominance, but it also doesn’t seem crazy to think that he could contribute as a starting pitcher at a league-average level in MLB.

For more on Phelps, be sure to check out TYA’s Brad Vietrogoski’s Top 30 Yankee Prospects capsules over at An A-Blog for A-Rod. Phelps checks in at #8.

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What can the Yankees reasonably expect out of David Phelps?

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MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects List