AzFL Surprise (11-9 loss to the Peoria Saguaros on Wednesday)
Brandon Laird: 1 for 4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Colin Curtis: 3 for 5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K - finishes the season on a 14 for 37 (.378) with 4 doubles, a triple, and a homer

AzFL Surprise (7-4 win over Phoenix on Thursday)
Mike Dunn: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1-0 GB/FB – 14 of 26 pitches were strikes (53.8%) … PitchFX had the fastball at 93.94-95

So that’s it for nightly DotF until next April. You’ll still get your winter ball updates every Sunday, but those won’t last much longer either.

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Curtis finishes the season with a bomb

Meanwhile, the list of minor league free agents was released today. Here’s who the Yanks are losing:

RHP: Paul Bush (AA), Michael Gardner (AA), Justin Pope (AA), Humberto Sanchez (AAA), Jay Stephens (AA), Jose Valdez (AAA)
C: Brian Peterson (AAA), Chris Stewart (AAA)
3B: Eric Duncan (AAA), Carlos Mendoza (AA), Cody Ransom (AAA), Marcos Vechionacci (AA)
SS: Doug Bernier (AAA)
OF: Edwar Gonzalez (AA), Freddy Guzman (AAA), Richie Robnett (AA), John Rodriguez (AAA)

I guess I was wrong that Jason Hirsh was eligible for free agency, so that’s good. They’ll probably re-sign a few of these guys, but most of them can walk. Old buddies Chase Wright and Justin Christian are free agents now. I’d love to see the Yanks bring in  Ryan Speier, Andrew Brown, and/or Chad Cordero to add to that cache of dirt cheap, interchangeable relievers.

Oh, and the guys at Project Prospect rated Slade Heathcott the 14th best centerfield prospect in the game.

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Kennedy strong in his final start of 2009

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Dunn strikes out four … in one inning

Here’s the winter ball updates…

Dominican Winter League
Abe Almonte: 7 G, 1 for 5 (.200), 3 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SB
Juan Miranda: 4 G, 5 for 13 (.385), 3 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 SB – check out Mr. Miranda with the steal
Eduardo Nunez: 1 G, 1 for 3 (.333), 1 R, 1 BB
Wilkins Arias: 12 G, 9.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 8 K
Ivan Nova: 5 G, 4 GS, 25.2 IP, 17 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 17 K - studly
Jon Ortiz: 6 G, 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Jose Valdez: 11 G, 12 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Mexican Pacific League
Walt Ibarra: 19 G, 11 for 36 (.306), 7 R, 1 2B, 4 R, 2 BB, 12 K, 1 SB
Jorge Vazquez: 4 R, 3 for 15 (.200), 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K – good to see him back from his shoulder injury and terrorizing pitchers again
Humberto Sanchez: 6 G, 7.1 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 5 K – eek

Venezuelan Winter League
Reegie Corona: 18 G, 13 for 40 (.325), 10 R, 5 2B, 6 RBI, 8 BB, 7 K, 1 SB
Edwar Gonzalez: 21 G, 18 for 63 (.286), 9 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 11 K, 3 SB, 3 CS
Carlos Mendoza: 3 G, 0 for 3, 3 K – fail
Jesus Montero: 9 G, 3 for 26 (.115), 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K – he hasn’t played in about three weeks, though I suspect it’s nothing major … they play to win in these leagues, and if you’re not doing the job, you’ll sit
Luis Nunez: 11 G, 8 for 32 (.250), 1 2B, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K – on-base ten times in 11 games and you don’t score a run? weak
Marcos Vechionacci: 15 G, 12 for 42 (.286), 5 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBI, 4 BB, 9 K, 1 CS
Romulo Sanchez: 13 G, 16.1 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 6 ER, 8 BB, 22 K – he’s settled down after the bad start … love the K’s
Josh Schmidt: 8 G, 6 GS, 28.1 IP, 28 H, 20 R, 14 ER, 10 BB, 24 K
Pat Venditte: 7 G, 9.1 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K - he’s gotten batters to ground into 4 double plays in those 9.1 IP, so he’s getting a little lucky
Eric Wordekemper: 3 G, 1 GS, 4.1 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

Puerto Rican League
Amaury Sanit: 1 G, 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Soon to be ex-Yankee Jose Molina is also playing in the PRL, though he hasn’t gotten into a game yet.

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Winter ball in Puerto Rico begins

AzFL Surprise (4-2 loss to Scottsdale)
Grant Duff: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 0-3 GB/FB – 8 of 12 pitches were strikes … PitchFX had him at 93.59-95.3 with the fastball, while his one slider came in at 86.6

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Duff throws a scoreless frame in Surprise loss

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Laird & Curtis help Surprise to a win

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Curtis keeps on raking

The actual draft is held on the final day of the Winter Meetings in early December. This year it’s on the 10th. Even though the draft isn’t for another few weeks, rosters do have to be set fairly soon. I don’t know the exact date, but last year it was November 20th, so it can’t be too far away.

For the most part, teams will use the R5D almost like a temp agency; a means to find cheap labor. They won’t (or shouldn’t) go in looking for a franchise cornerstone, because they aren’t going to get it. The best young players always get protected for obvious reasons. Instead, teams will look for that second lefty reliever, or a backup catcher, or a spare outfielder, or a long reliever, stuff like that. NL teams might look for a veteran hitter to bring off the bench, someone they can hide on their roster all season. Last year, the Yanks lost four players in Major League portion of the R5D, plus two more in the Triple-A phase.

This year, I count no fewer than 37 players in the Yanks’ organization that are R5D eligible. Chances are it’s more, but it can be tough to figure out if some of the international signees are eligible. Now 37 seems like a big number, and it is, but relax, most of them are organizational players that have no business being protected. That said, the Yanks still have some tough decisions to make regarding who’ll protect and who they’ll leave exposed.

Before we get into who they should and shouldn’t protect, we first need to figure out what the 40-man roster situation looks like. As of today, there are 38 players on the 40-man. Brian Cashman has said he plans on “taking it slow” this offseason, so we can assume the Yanks will let all of their free agents hit the market. That frees up seven spots (Damon, Hairston, Hinske, Matsui, Molina, Nady, Pettitte), and the Yanks could easily free up another one by cutting ties with Shelley Duncan the same way they did with Freddy Guzman and Josh Towers.

It looks like Brian Bruney will be back next year (grrr), but not Chien-Ming Wang. That’s another open spot. Jon Albaladejo, Chris Garcia, and Edwar Ramirez all have options left, but I bet at least one (Edwar) goes because they’re easily replaceable. That’s another spot. Juan Miranda qualifies for a fourth option, and he’s worth keeping around.   All told, that would be eleven open spots on the 40-man, but remember that six of those spots will have to be used on replacements for Damon, Hairston, Hinske, Matsui, and Pettitte (Frankie Cervelli replaces Molina, and he’s already on the 40-man), plus assume one more spot for fungibility. That would give the Yanks four spots to use for protecting R5D eligible players.

Three of those four spots unquestionably will be used to protect Austin Jackson, Ivan Nova, and Kevin Russo. Jackson is the organization’s top outfield prospect, and if the Nationals didn’t take him with the first pick of the R5D, the Pirates would gobble him up with the second. Nova was selected but returned by the Padres last year, and the Yanks wouldn’t be so lucky again after his breakout season. Russo is capable of playing five (probably six) positions, and wOBA’d .371 in Triple-A next year. That’s a guy you keep.

So that leaves one more spot, and about eight players worthy of being considered for protection. Let’s break ‘em down one by one after the jump.

Reegie Corona, IF, 23
The Mariners took Corona in the R5D last year, but they returned him at the end of Spring Training after he failed to win the backup infielder’s spot. A slick fielding middle infielder, Corona flat out can’t hit (.262-.338-.342 career minor league line), so his value comes entirely from his ability to make all the plays at three infield positions. The Yankees already have Ramiro Pena for that, so Corona goes unprotected. He may or may not get selected again, I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

Colin Curtis, OF, 24
A classic ‘tweener, Curtis does several things well but nothing great. He’s not much of a hitter (.264-.364-.375 career line, and his performance has gotten progressively worse as he’s climbed the ladder), and nothing special on defense either. It’s hard to figure out where he fits in the Yankee puzzle both long and short term, but the team has enough outfield depth ahead of him that they can leave him unprotected. I would guess he goes undrafted.

Grant Duff, RHP, 26
Always a guy with premium arm strength, Duff didn’t really garner much attention until this year, when he moved to the bullpen full time. Reports during the season had him touching 99, though PitchFX has him topping out around 96 in the Arizona Fall League. That’s still well above average velocity, and he backs it up with a hard slider. Despite the gas, Duff’s strikeout numbers aren’t eye popping (7.45 K/9 the last two years) and his walk rate isn’t great either (3.64 BB/9 in the same time frame). He’ll be 27 in a month, but he’s worth considering for that final spot.

Zach Kroenke, LHP, 25
Like Corona, Kroenke got Rule 5′d (by the Marlins) last year only to be returned in Spring Training. He enjoyed the best season of his career in 2009, though his peripherals in Triple-A weren’t anything to get excited about (6.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9). Kroenke works with a high-80’s fastball and an average slider, but he didn’t have much of a platoon split. Given that there’s four lefty relievers (Damaso Marte, Phil Coke, Mike Dunn, Wilkins DeLaRosa) already on the 40-man, Kroenke will be left unprotected and presumably gobbled up yet again in the R5D.

Eduardo Nunez, SS, 22
After four years of forgettable play, Nunez finally broke through in 2009, posting a .322-.349-.433 batting line in Double-A. His best tool is his arm, though the rest of his defense is nothing to write home about. Like Corona, the Yankees don’t have a need for a guy like Nunez with Ramiro Pena around. Someone might gamble and draft Nunez, but there’s virtually no chance of him making through a full season on the 25-man roster, so he’ll be back soon enough.

Romulo Sanchez, RHP, 25
Picked up in the middle of the season in exchange for Eric Hacker, the big righty excelled in an unfamiliar role for Triple-A Scranton after the trade: as a starter. He’s one of, if not the hardest thrower in the system, and at 6′-6″, 260 lbs, he’s an intimidating presence on the mound. When he commands his curve, he can be unhittable. The problem is that his control wavers, and he can pile up big walk totals in addition to his big strikeout totals. Like Duff, he’s definitely worth considering for the final 40-man spot.

Josh Schmidt, RHP, 27
Schmidt had a phenomenal season in Double-A (2.58 FIP, 10.3 K/9) this year, but he’s a sidearming sinker-slider pitcher. Those guys are a dime a dozen, and every organization has about half-a-dozen of their own guys just like Schmidt. No need to protect him, and on the odd chance that he does get picked, it’s no big loss.

Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, 23
The forgotten piece in the Nick Swisher deal, Texeira had a strong, but unspectacular season with Double-A Trenton in 2009. Like Schmidt, he’s a sinker-slider guy, though he throws from a slightly higher slot than pure sidearm. If left unprotected, Texeira’s a real good bet to get picked, but the Yanks have better options for that final 40-man spot. Such is the cost of having a lot of Major League relief options.

Kevin Whelan, RHP, 25
The lone member of the Gary Sheffield trade not to make it too the majors (yet), Whelan is fighting a perpetual battle against below-average control. His mid-90’s fastball-splitter combo is devastating (153 hits and 337 strikeouts in 266 career innings), but he often beats himself with walks (5.4 BB/9) and is prone to hitting the DL. Along with Duff and Sanchez, Whelan is worth considering for that final 40-man spot.

Click here if you want to see my unofficial list of R5D eligible players. As you can see, most of the guys aren’t even worth mentioning, though I’m sure one or two will get popped in the minor league portion of the draft. It’s also worth noting that both Jason Hirsh and Humberto Sanchez – two guys that might have been protected in a normal year – can become six year free agents, but I can’t see the team adding either player to the 40-man to prevent them from walking. There’s better ways to use a 40-man spot, and besides, they could always re-sign them before they even hit the market.

Based on what we talked about above, the three guys I’m considering for that last roster spot are Duff, Sanchez, and Whelan. When sorting out the 40-man for R5D purposes last year, GM Brian Cashman noted that sometimes the best way to keep a player is to leave him unprotected, because if the player does get taken, it’s unlikely they’ll stick on the 25-man roster all season and thus will end up back with the Yanks. Using that logic, Whelan can get left off. He’s the most likely to run into extreme walk trouble at some point during the season, which could easily land him back in pinstripes.

Eliminating Whelan, now we’re left picking between Duff and Sanchez. Both sport premium velocity, but Sanchez a) is younger, b) has a longer track record, c) was working as a starter as recently as two months ago, and d) has prior big league experience (31.1 IP with the Pirates). Duff is a guy that didn’t have his first taste of success until last season, and he’s going to be 27 next month. For the most part, he is what he is. I’d add Sanchez to the 40-man for the aforementioned reasons, but know that regardless of who they protect, the other guy will almost certainly be selected.

Having to make tough decisions about who to the protect for the R5D and who to leave exposed can be painful, but in a way it’s good because that means the team has good depth and plenty of desirable pieces. Of course, the Yankees could still open some more spots by unloading some dead weight (coughBruneycough), easing some of the pain.

Photo Credit: Mike Ashmore

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Who should the Yankees protect from the Rule 5 Draft?

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Kennedy knocked around in Arizona

Zachary “Slade” Heathcott | OF

Background
A hardcore Texan, Heathcott attended Texas High School in Texarkana, which is right on the Texas-Arkansas border. In addition to playing football, he starred both on the mound and in the outfield for the Tigers. Heathcott was named First Team All-District as both a sophomore and junior, and also took home MVP honors of the WSSSA World Series as a sophomore. He hit .456 with a 1.98 ERA as a freshman, .489 with a 1.89 as a sophomore, and .530 with a 1.23 as a junior.

Limited mostly to DH duties as a senior because of a torn ACL and a jammed throwing shoulder, Heathcott hit a staggering .472-.523-1.097 in his final season of high school. After missing the first playoff game because of academic issues, Heathcott led Texas High to the state championship last June by picking up the save in the Title Game, the first time he pitched since tearing his ACL. Committed to Louisiana State, last year’s NCAA baseball champs, Heathcott was considered signable if taken early enough in the 2009 Draft.

Baseball America ranked Heathcott the 10th best prospect in Texas and the 72nd best prospect overall just before the draft. Keith Law ranked him 51st overall. Regardless, the Yankees loved Heathcott’s tools and selected him with their first round pick, #29 overall. It was the compensation pick they received for failing to sign first rounder Gerrit Cole in 2008. The team announced that they signed Heathcott to a $2.2M bonus on the August 17th signing deadline, double the estimated slot recommendation of $1.1M, and equivalent to 7th overall pick money.

Pro Debut
After signing, the Yankees assigned Heathcott to their rookie level Gulf Coast League affiliate. He appeared in just three games, going 1-for-10 with a walk and two strikeouts. He played center field twice, serving as the designated hitter in the other. Heathcott also took part in fall instructional league in October.

Scouting Report
The term “five-tool prospect” gets thrown around a bit too much, but Heathcott legitimately has that kind of ability. He’s an outstanding athlete with above average speed, and his arm is very strong and accurate, what you’d expect from an ex-pitcher. Already able to cover large swaths of ground in the outfield, Heathcott does need to improve his reads and quicken his first step. He’s a true centerfielder, and there are no concerns that he’ll outgrow the position anytime soon. At worst, his arm would play just fine in right.

At the plate, Heathcott has good bat speed but his swing needs to be ironed out to produce consistent, hard contact. He’ll get away with it in the low minors because of his athletic ability, but it’s something to watch out for down the road.  At 6′-1″ and 196 lbs, Heathcott has thick, strong build that should allow him to hit for average power down the road. His speed also works well on the bases. As cliche as it sounds, Heathcott is a true grinder. He plays all out all the time, sometimes to his detriment (the jammed shoulder he suffered as a senior came when he dove for a ball), so he’s sure to be a fan favorite.

There are conflicting reports about Heathcott’s upbringing, leading to questions about his character. In this in this interview at NoMaas, Slade confirmed that he hasn’t lived with his parents for two years because of  “things that happened that [he has] no control over.” Previous rumors indicated that both of Heathcott’s parents were out of his life due to drug related issues, however that information remains unconfirmed. Trouble at home would lead to questions about his ability to discern right from wrong, no matter how fair or unfair it may be.

You can see Heathcott’s scouting video here.

2010 Outlook
Unlike pitchers, the Yankees aren’t shy about sending high school position players to full season ball in their first full professional season. Heathcott figures to start the 2010 season as the every day centerfielder for Low-A Charleston, and is likely to stay there the entire season.

My Take
After hearing that the Yanks had a hard budget for the first time in years, I was worried that they would target a low ceiling, high probability college player with their first pick. Heathcott is anything but that, so I approve. I will, however, say that I think they overpaid him by quite a bit, he’s just not the kind of talent that warrants 7th overall pick money. Heathcott has the potential to grow into an exciting power-speed combo in centerfield, and he’s the most dynamic position player prospect the Yankees have drafted since Austin Jackson and CJ Henry in 2005.

Photo Credit: Evan Lewis, Texarkana Gazette

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Prospect Profile: Slade Heathcott