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Prospect Profile: Joe Harvey

February 7, 2019 by Derek Albin

Background

Harvey, 27, grew up near Philadelphia and attended Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic School in Norristown, Pennsylvania. Prior to his senior year (2010), he was named to the Rawlings/Perfect Game Pre-Season Atlantic Region High School Senior second team. It was a nice honor, but by not being named to the first team, he wasn’t a draft prospect. So, it was off to the University of Pittsburgh.

After redshirting in his freshman year, Harvey joined the Panthers’ bullpen. He was mediocre in his sophomore and junior years, but blossomed as a senior. After struggling with his control (35 walks in 60 innings), Harvey took a step forward in his senior season. Preceding his senior year, though, was a trip to the Cape Cod League, where Harvey threw six innings of one run ball. Though not enough exposure to make anyone really notice, it was a precursor for his final college season.

Everything came together for Harvey in his last year at Pitt. Rather than pitch exclusively in relief, Harvey got most of his work as a starter. In 15 games (12 starts), the righty tossed 71 innings with a 2.90 ERA. His biggest improvement was his control: he walked only 16 batters, good for a BB/9 just north of 2. This performance got him to the very back end of Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects in 2014. The Yankees popped him in the 19th round of the 2014 draft.

Pro Career

Harvey signed for $60,000 and reported to rookie ball for a two-game tuneup before heading to Staten Island to finish his first pro season. From day one with the Yankees, Harvey was no longer a starter. His organizational debut was excellent (20.2 IP, 19 Ks, 5 BBs, 1.74 ERA). It was a solid beginning in advance of what was supposed to be his first full season in 2015. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery changed things. After a couple of months in Charleston to start 2015, his season was over.

Upon return, Harvey excelled. After a few rehab appearances in the GCL, he finished 2016 in Staten Island and recorded his highest strikeout rate (29.1%) of his young career. In 2017, he got off to a late start for reasons that are unclear (injury or extended spring training, most likely). Once back into game action, he dominated, this time with High-A Tampa. Around a short DL stint midseason, he recorded a microscopic 1.05 ERA and 29.3% strikeout rate. That winter, he was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft but the Yankees didn’t protect him. Despite the strong performance, Harvey was an afterthought at the time as a former 19th rounder with a recent Tommy John surgery, so there wasn’t much concern he’d be taken.

No team selected Harvey in the Rule 5 Draft, as expected. He started 2018 with Double-A Trenton, but was promptly bumped up to Triple-A in late April for good. The righty became a key cog in Scranton’s bullpen and completed his first full professional season without interruption. In 59.1 innings last year, Harvey pitched to a 1.67 ERA while punching out 29.1% of hitters. In the Triple-A playoffs, he held opponents scoreless in four appearances. The Yankees added Harvey to the 40-man roster just a couple of weeks after season’s end. It was a somewhat surprising addition, but it’s hard to argue against his performance.

Scouting Report

Harvey has three pitches in his arsenal, though one stands out above the rest. His mid-90s fastball has a high spin rate that the Yankees adore. His curveball is a work in progress and has been a focal point of his offseason, as he told Pinstriped Prospects:

Mike also noted that Harvey throws “something resembling a changeup”.

Like so many relievers, control is not one of Harvey’s strengths. His career minor league walk rate of 10.7% won’t fly in the majors unless he’s the next Dellin Betances. The odds of him being the next Betances are slim, to say the least.

Harvey is a well built 6’2″ and 220 pounds. He has a little bit of a Tommy Kahnle look on the mound, who’s of similar stature (6’1″, 235 lbs). From a stuff perspective, he reminds me of Chad Green. That’s a lofty and certainly unfair comp, but their repertoires are quite similar. Both have high spin rates on their mid-90s heaters and have questionable breaking pitches.

2019 Outlook

Projection systems don’t think much of Harvey at this point. PECOTA pegs him for a 5.26 ERA while Steamer is a bit more optimistic at 4.60. These poor forecasts aren’t a big deal though. Barring a plethora of injuries, Harvey isn’t going to have much of a role on this year’s big league squad given the Yankees’ current bullpen. Plus, Harvey will have to compete with other 40-man relievers likely destined for Scranton, such as Stephen Tarpley and Ben Heller.

In all likelihood, Harvey will ride the Scranton shuttle back and forth a handful of times this season, rotating with the Hellers and Tarpleys of the world as needed. He should see some time during expanded rosters in September, too. Otherwise, he should be one of the RailRiders’ go-to late inning relievers.

My Take

Harvey doesn’t excite me. Despite his minor league track record, it seems like hard throwing right-handed relievers are a dime-a-dozen nowadays. If he had a wipeout slider or curve, it’d be a different story. He’s undoubtedly a nice depth arm that can be plucked from Triple-A as needed, but I would be surprised if he amounts to much more than a middle innings guy. Maybe he can ride his fastball to success in the way Green has, but that remains to be seen.

2019 Preseason Not Top 30 Yankees Prospects

February 7, 2019 by Mike

Due to graduations and trades, the Yankees no longer boast one of the top farm systems in baseball. They have one of the top Major League rosters instead. I’d take that over a top farm system any day of the week. The Yankees currently have a pitching heavy system with quite a few high-end teenagers who are years away from the big leagues. That equals risk. It’s a boom-or-bust system, for sure.

Although the farm system no longer offers potential impact talent close to the big leagues, the Yankees do still have a fairly deep system, so much so that several quality prospects did not make my annual Top 30 Prospects List. That’ll be posted tomorrow. First we have to get to my Not Top 30 Prospects. These are players on the outside of this year’s top 30 who could jump into next year’s top 30.

One of last year’s not top 30 prospects made this year’s top 30. Two others were among the final cuts, and another was traded away, though he wouldn’t have made the top 30 anyway. I’ve done this long enough to know two not top 30 prospects becoming top 30 prospects is a good success rate. One? Eh, close enough. I’ll try better next year. Prospect ranking is little more than informed guesswork.

Just to be clear, these are not prospects 31-35. They are simply five prospects on the outside of this year’s top 30 list who I think could make next year’s top 30 with a good statistical season and positive development in 2019. Here are this year’s five not top 30 prospects, listed alphabetically.

2B Ezequiel Duran

Date of Birth: May 22nd, 1999 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of Dominican Republic ($10,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+), 4 HR, 27.7 K%, 3.8 BB% (235 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

The Yankees landed Duran almost by accident. He was a projected mid-six-figure bonus prospect for the 2016-17 international signing period but neglected to register with MLB, so he was unable to sign. Duran became a forgotten man, so by time he actually registered to sign, he was already 18 and teams had earmarked most of their bonus pool money for other players. The Yankees swooped in with a $10,000 bonus and here we are.

Duran made a name for himself in the Dominican Summer League in 2017 and again in minor league Spring Training last year, though he fell flat with Rookie Pulaski last summer. Pitchers took advantage of his aggressiveness at the plate and gave him fits all season. Duran’s tools are unchanged, however. He has premium bat speed and puts up big exit velocities from the right side, and he doesn’t miss pitches out over the plate. For a little guy (5-foot-11 and 185 lbs.), there is a lot of thump in Duran’s bat, even if he didn’t show it last year.

The downside here is Duran’s thick lower half and defensive tools that point to a future in a corner outfield spot rather than second base. Also, there’s little room for projection. Even at 19, Duran is close to maxed out physically, so what you see is probably what you’ll get long-term. Can Duran clean up his plate discipline? If yes, he could force his way up the ladder. If not, more seasons like 2018 are coming.

OF Anthony Garcia

Date of Birth: September 5th, 2000 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of Dominican Republic ($500,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .218/.300/.456 (48 wRC+), 10 HR, 40.6 K%, 10.6 BB% (217 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

Seven-figure signings like Antonio Cabello, Everson Pereira, Ronny Rojas, and Raimfer Salinas headline the Yankees’ 2017-18 international signing class. It is Garcia and several other smaller bonus prospects who could turn this into a banner haul. Garcia has drawn comparisons to Brewers-turned-Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana for his size (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and power, though Garcia has a long way to go to get to where Santana is now.

Garcia led the Gulf Coast League in home runs last year and he has near 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale from both sides of the plate, though he’s more refined as a left-handed hitter, which is good because that’s the heavy side of the platoon. That 40.6% strikeout rate stems from a tendency to swing-and-miss at pitches in the zone rather than a lack of discipline. Garcia knows a ball from a strike. He just misses those strikes too often.

In the field, Garcia runs quite well given his size and he has a good arm. Chances are he’ll slow down as he gets older and settle in as an average-ish defender. Garcia has exciting upside like Santana. The downside with Santana is that, when he isn’t hitting for power (like 2018), he’s kinda useless. Garcia is a switch-hitter and has a chance to be a better defender. Clearly though, the power is his calling card.

RHSP Yoendrys Gomez

Date of Birth: October 15th, 1999 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed July 2016 out of Venezuela ($50,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: 2.08 ERA (3.56 FIP), 25.8 K%, 11.3 BB% (47.2 IP in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

When the Yankees signed Gomez he was tall and scrawny with good athleticism and a quick arm. Everything pointed to him adding velocity and firming up his stuff as matured and that is exactly what happened. Gomez, who is now listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 lbs., sits in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball, and pairs it with a snappy upper-70s curveball that misses bats. His changeup shows promise as well.

The physical tools are good, but what really makes Gomez stand out is his creativity and craftiness. He knows how to make his fastball cut and sink, and he likes to steal strikes in hitter’s counts with a curveball in the zone. Gomez is a smart pitcher who maybe gets a little too cute at times, though that’s something he’ll grow out of in time. The biggest knock against him is his shaky command, mostly with his secondary stuff. The Yankees have a knack for digging up quality small bonus pitching prospects on the international market and Gomez is next in line.

SS Oswald Peraza

Date of Birth: June 15th, 2000 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2016 out of Venezuela ($175,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .250/.333/.321 (81 wRC+), 1 HR, 25.8 K%, 8.8 BB% (159 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

Peraza is a tools guy who is still working to turn those tools into baseball skills. He’s listed at 6-foot-0 and 176 lbs., and he currently does his best work in the field, where he is a no-doubt long-term shortstop. Peraza has good range, good hands, and good athleticism, and his feel for the position is very advanced. He positions himself well, makes good decisions, and has a good internal clock.

Offensively, Peraza has little power and he’s still learning to recognize spin and control the strike zone. He’s a righty hitter with good bat-to-ball skills, and he adds value on the bases through his speed and baserunning instincts. The Yankees have had some success with this profile. Guys like Abi Avelino and Thairo Estrada have similar skill sets and became MLB options (and a trade chip, in Avelino’s case). Peraza is still very young and I’m probably Not Top 30-ing him a year early, but I’ll take my chances.

RHSP Miguel Yajure

Date of Birth: May 1st, 1998 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed March 2015 out of Venezuela (bonus unknown)
2018 Stats: 3.90 ERA (3.04 FIP), 20.7 K%, 5.6 BB% (64.2 IP in A-)
Projected 2019 Level: Low-A and High-A

Yajure had a promising but short-lived stint in the Rookie Gulf Coast League in 2016. He threw 31.1 innings, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. Yajure returned last year with a fastball that jumped from the low-90s into the mid-90s, and when that happens, it’s usually because the Tommy John surgery rehab is more intense than anything the player did previously, not because the new ligament gave him superpowers.

A quality curveball and a quality changeup complement Yajure’s new and improved fastball, and even though pitchers tend to struggle with their control when they first return from elbow reconstruction, Yajure did not. He locates everything well, especially his secondary pitches for his age. He’s not especially big (6-foot-1 and 175 lbs.) and once the elbow gives out once, long-term durability questions will inevitably follow. Such is the life of the pitching prospect.

While Yajure’s stuff is quite good, his career strikeout rate (18.0%) and last year’s swing-and-miss rate (11.1%) do not stand out. He hasn’t missed as many bats as the raw stuff would lead you to believe. That said, he’s 20 years old and he’s thrown 64.2 innings with his new elbow ligament. Let’s see what happens when he gets further away some surgery. Yajure figures to return to Low-A Charleston for a few weeks this year before moving up to High-A Tampa.

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

January 30, 2019 by Mike

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

Prospect Profile: Brandon Wagner

January 30, 2019 by Mike

Brandon Wagner | IF

Background
Wagner, 23, is a local kid who grew up in Somerville, New Jersey, and attended Immaculata High School. Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him among the top 500 prospects for the 2013 draft, but the Phillies did select Wagner in the 39th round (1,171st overall). He did not sign out of high school and instead headed to Howard College in Texas, a two-year school.

As a freshman with the Hawks, Wagner put up a strong .314/.488/.490 batting line with four homers and more walks (47) than strikeouts (40) in 48 games. Despite that, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Wagner among their top 500 prospects for the 2014 draft, and he was not selected. He returned to Howard for his sophomore year and hit .435/.571/.891 with 22 homers and again more walks (46) than strikeouts (43) in 58 games. That earned him conference MVP honors.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Wagner as the 438th best prospect in the 2015 draft class. The Yankees selected him in the sixth round (183rd overall) and signed him to a straight slot $256,000 bonus. At age 19, Wagner was one of the youngest college players in his draft class.

Pro Career
Wagner was sent directly to the short season Staten Island Yankees for his pro debut in 2015. He hit .228/.347/.364 (116 wRC+) with four homers, a 25.4% strikeout rate, and a 14.5% walk rate in 52 games. The Yankees held Wagner back in Extended Spring Training to begin 2016 and eventually assigned him to the rookie Gulf Coast League and rookie Appalachian League. He hit .267/.369/.471 (144 wRC+) with eight homers and good strikeout (21.1%) and walk (12.8%) rates in 54 total games that year.

The Yankees assigned Wagner to Low-A Charleston in 2017, his first full season ball assignment, and he responded with a .277/.380/.392 (128 wRC+) batting line and seven homers in 110 games. His walk rate (13.0%) was very good. His strikeout rate (26.4%) was a tad high. Wagner moved up to High-A Tampa last season and had a breakout year, a breakout year that saw him get promoted to Double-A Trenton in the second half. The numbers:

	G	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	XBH	K%	BB%
High-A Tampa	87	359	.270/.376/.510	150	20	33	27.0%	12.0%
Double-A Trenton	37	159	.262/.390/.346	116	1	9	23.9%	17.0%
Total	124	518	.267/.380/.461	143	21	42	26.1%	13.5%

After hitting 19 home runs in 216 pro games from 2015-17, Wagner swatted 20 homers in 87 games with High-A Tampa alone last year. Double-A wasn’t as kind, but, you know, it happens. The Yankees had Wagner participate in Instructional League following last season.

Scouting Report
Built solidly at 6-foot-0 and 200 lbs., Wagner is a classic left-handed hitting corner infield masher. His calling card is above-average power to all fields, though, like everyone else, he does the most damage when he speeds up his bat and pulls the ball. Wagner started to really tap into his power last season following some offseason adjustments that turned him into a launch angle guy. His year-to-year ground ball rates:

2015: 51.4%
2016: 46.4%
2017: 45.5%
2018: 35.6%

Wagner’s plate discipline is excellent and bordering on passive. There are times he’ll let hittable pitches go by. And despite having some length to his swing, Wagner doesn’t swing-and-miss a whole lot. His 9.4% swing-and-miss rate last season is better than average and, among the 253 minor leaguers with at least 500 plate appearances last year, only five combined a lower swing-and-miss rate and a higher ISO than Wagner’s marks (9.4% and .194, respectively).

Defensively, Wagner was drafted as a third baseman and he split his pro debut with Staten Island between second and third. He’s been primarily a first baseman since then, however, playing 228 games at first from 2016-18 and only 32 elsewhere. Wagner’s a good athlete and his hands are fine, but he lacks the range for second and the quickness for third. I suspect we might see him play some left field next year in an effort to increase his versatility. Wagner is a good runner who isn’t a liability on the bases, though he’s never been much of a stolen base threat.

2019 Outlook
Wagner is ticketed for a return to Double-A Trenton this season following his 37-game cameo at the level last year, in which he did little besides walk. Trenton is a brutal ballpark for left-handed hitters — the breeze comes in off the Delaware River beyond the right field wall and knocks fly balls down, especially at night — so don’t be surprised if his early season power numbers are down. A midseason promotion to Triple-A Scranton could be in the cards, though the RailRiders may have as many as three true first basemen on the roster in Greg Bird, Mike Ford, and Ryan McBroom. I suspect the Yankees will make room in Triple-A should Wagner really force the issue.

My Take
I’m not the biggest Wagner fan. The swing is a little too long for my liking and I worry upper level pitchers will give him trouble. Wagner strikes me as a potential National League bench bat. A lefty pinch-hitter who can put a mistake in the seats, play some first base and maybe left field, and also fill in at third base in a pinch. American League teams can use a guy like that too, sure. It’s just that the so-called Senior Circuit offers more pinch-hitting opportunities. Wagner went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft in December and I’m not sure he can be anything more than an up-and-down guy for a contending team. If the Yankees get a chance to cash him in as a trade chip, they should pounce.

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus release 2019 top 100 prospects lists

January 23, 2019 by Mike

Top 100 prospect ranking season has officially arrived. Earlier today Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d) both released their annual top 100 lists. Well, Baseball Prospectus released a top 101 list. Everyone else releases a top 100 list.

As noted earlier, the Yankees did not have anyone on Baseball America’s list. Kyle Glaser said OF Estevan Florial did receive consideration for the top 100, but concerns about his pitch recognition kept him off the list. Pitch recognition is the biggest development hurdle for Florial going forward.

The Yankees did have two prospects on the Baseball Prospectus list, however. Here are those two along with some other notable prospects:

1. 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
11. OF Taylor Trammell, Reds (Yankees asked for him in Sonny Gray trade talks)
50. LHP Justus Sheffield, Mariners (traded to the Mariners for James Paxton)
64. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
66. OF Estevan Florial

Baseball America also had Vlad Jr. in the top spot. That kid will be A Problem. Baseball America had Sheffield at No. 27 and Trammel at No. 33. Sheffield ranked as their 12th best pitching prospect overall and their third best left-handed pitching prospect behind A’s LHP Jesus Luzardo and A’s LHP A.J. Puk.

As for the two Yankees prospects, Loaisiga over Florial surprises me a bit, especially because Baseball Prospectus tends to skew toward upside and long-term potential with their rankings. Loaisiga’s really good but he also comes with a ton of injury risk. Then again, the difference between No.64 and No. 66 on a top 100 list is nothing, so I wouldn’t sweat it.

MLB.com will announce their top 100 list during a live MLB Network broadcast this weekend (8pm ET on Saturday). Keith Law’s top 100 is due out sometime next week. I reckon we’ll see Florial on both lists. Loaisiga is a maybe only because that injury history is scary. There are healthier pitchers with similar potential in the minors who figure to rank ahead of him.

Prospect Profile: Josh Stowers

January 23, 2019 by Mike

Josh Stowers | OF

Background
Stowers, 22 next month, grew up outside Chicago in Westchester, Illinois. He hit .352/.463/.508 with two home runs as a senior at Mount Caramel High School and Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 490th best prospect in the 2015 draft class. Despite that, Stowers went undrafted out of high school and instead followed through on his commitment to the University of Louisville. (Stowers, by the way, rhymes with “lowers,” not “flowers.”)

Louisville has become a baseball powerhouse, so only the very best of the best get to play as freshmen. Stowers appeared in 20 games and received only 15 plate appearances as a first year player, going 3-for-13 (.231) with two steals. A summer ball stint with the Madison Mallards of the Northwoods League went much better. Stowers hit .311/.373/.400 with three homers in 39 games that summer.

As a sophomore Stowers moved into an everyday role with the Cardinals and put up a .313/.422/.507 batting line with six homers and 22 steals in 65 games. That includes going 4-for-11 (.364) with a double in three College World Series games before Louisville was eliminated. Stowers suited up for the Chatham Anglers of the Cape Cod League that summer and struggled, hitting .250/.337/.345 with two homers and 12 steals in 24 games.

Stowers barely played as a freshman and hit near the bottom of the lineup as a sophomore. As a junior he moved to the top of the order and hit .336/.477/.559 with nine homers, 36 steals, and more walks (52) than strikeouts (37). Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com ranked Stowers as the 124th and 146th best prospect in the 2018 draft class, respectively. Keith Law (subs. req’d) did not rank him among his top 100 draft prospects.

The Mariners selected Stowers with their second round pick, the 54th overall selection, in last June’s draft and signed him to a slightly below-slot $1.1M bonus. (Slot money for the 54th overall pick was $1.2878M.) The Yankees acquired Stowers from Seattle in the three-team Sonny Gray trade with the Reds on January 21st, 2019.

Pro Debut
After signing, the Mariners sent Stowers to their short season affiliate in the Northwest League. (Their equivalent to Short Season Staten Island.) Stowers hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers, 20 steals, 15.2% walks, and 23.4% strikeouts in 58 games in his pro debut. Baseball America (subs. req’d) named him the 12th best prospect in the league after the season.

Scouting Report
With a thick lower half and a 6-foot-1, 200-pound frame, Stowers doesn’t look like the prototypical center fielder. He is a well-above-average runner (his speed is his best tool) and his speed serves him well defensively, but his reads and routes need to improve to remain in center long-term. Stowers has a below-average arm, so if he can’t hack it in center field, left field is the only other option. His arm won’t cut it in right.

Offensively, Stowers has the rare pretty right-handed swing. It’s direct to the ball and allows him to spray line drives from pole to pole, but he doesn’t generate much loft, so Stowers only projects to have average power down the road. His plate discipline is razor sharp and he steals bases efficiently and in bulk. The long-term upside here is a good batting average with a high on-base percentage and lots of steals, but something short of 20 homers.

By all accounts Stowers is coachable and a hard worker. The risk here is that he’ll become a ‘tweener, meaning he won’t be good enough defensively to remain in center field or offer the type of offense expected from a corner. The questionable center field defense/okay power potential profile is a tough one, especially for a hitter on the light side of the platoon.

2019 Outlook
Stowers is definitely ready for full season ball after three years at a major college program, two summers in top collegiate leagues, and a strong pro debut in short season ball. I think it’s more likely he’ll start the season with Low-A Charleston and get promoted to High-A Tampa at midseason than start the season in Tampa. If he does start the year in Tampa, Stowers would presumably join Estevan Florial and Pablo Olivares in a fun little outfield unit.

My Take
Everything I know about Stowers is in this post and he hasn’t been in the system long enough for me to form an opinion about him. Consider my take TBD. Because he’s fast and a good athlete, I think Stowers stands a pretty good chance to remain in center field, or at least I think he has a better chance to improve his defense and remain in center than add power. Stowers and Shed Long, the prospect the Yankees acquired from the Reds for Gray then flipped to the Mariners for Stowers, will forever be connected. Comparing the two is unfair — they are at very different points of their careers — but inevitable. My preference would’ve been keeping the upper level infielder. Stowers is a quality prospect in his own right though.