Archive for Minors
2012 Draft: Addison Russell
Posted by: | CommentsThe 2012 amateur draft is just about three weeks away, so between now and then I’m going to highlight some prospects individually rather than lump them together into larger posts.
Addison Russell | SS
Background
A shortstop at Pace High School in Pace, Florida — on the panhandle near the Alabama border — Russell has battled weight issues in the past but dropped at least 20 lbs. over the winter and muscled up considerably. He is a committed to Alabama and is advised by Scott Boras.
Scouting Report
Listed at 6-foot-0 and 215 lbs., Russell is a bat-first prospect with big raw power to the pull side and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His approach is fine but still needs some refinement, though he has shown the ability to handle velocity and quality breaking balls in showcase events. He’s a man of a thousand stances, tinkering with his setup constantly. That will have to change at some point. Russell’s defensive skills are surprisingly strong for a kid his size, as he sports smooth hands, a strong and accurate arm, and a quick first step. The long-term concern is that he’ll outgrow shortstop and slide over to third, though the bat works fine there and he should be an above-average defender.
Miscellany
Keith Law has the Yankees selecting Russell with their first round pick in his latest mock draft, and I figured that was as good a place to start our individual profiles as any. Baseball America recently ranked him as the 28th best prospect in the draft, which is right in line with the team’s first selection (#30 overall). Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer loves his bat-first high school position players and Russell certainly qualifies. His potential as a hitter is a bit more obvious than Dante Bichette Jr.’s, who had to clean up his swing after the draft in order to take off as a prospect. I can only assume Boras will want the full $1.6M first round slot money and then some.
2012 Draft: Slot values for top ten rounds
Posted by: | CommentsThe amateur draft is a little more than three weeks away right now, and we know the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has imposed strict spending restrictions that figure to change the way clubs operate. The Yankees have been allotted $4,192,200 for their eleven picks in the top ten rounds, including $1.6M for their first rounder (#30 overall). Any money in excess of $100k given to a player drafted after the tenth round counts against the draft pool as well.
The penalties for exceeding the draft pool are pretty harsh, including a tax on the overage and forfeiture of future picks. They really don’t want teams spending on amateurs, it seems. Baseball America recently published a list of slot values for the top ten rounds of the draft, which breaks down like so for the Yankees…
| Round | Pick | Slot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | $1,600,000 | |
| 2 | 89 | $548,400 | for 2011 unsigned 2nd rounder, LHP Sam Stafford |
| 2 | 94 | $507,800 | |
| 3 | 124 | $378,000 | |
| 4 | 157 | $275,000 | |
| 5 | 187 | $205,900 | |
| 6 | 217 | $154,400 | |
| 7 | 247 | $141,000 | |
| 8 | 277 | $131,700 | |
| 9 | 307 | $125,000 | |
| 10 | 337 | $125,000 |
If a team does not sign a player, they can not use that pick’s money elsewhere. So the Yankees won’t be able to just not sign say, their fifth rounder and use that $205,900 on other players. They can game the system a little but, most notably by selecting some low-cost college seniors — they usually sign for bonuses in the $1k-$20k range — and using the savings elsewhere. If they take college seniors with their ninth and tenth rounders and pay them $25k each, they’ll have an extra $200k to spend on other players. The Yankees can also exceed their draft pool by $209,610 (5%) before the penalties kid in.
The slot values themselves are not low at all, in fact they’re actually larger than recent years (at least for the first few rounds). The problem is the restrictions and penalties; the inability to exceed slot for one player without having to skimp elsewhere. It stinks, but that’s the system they decided to put in place.
O’Brien stellar in Double-A debut
Posted by: | CommentsRHP Cory Arbiso was placed on the DL with a mid-back strain.
Triple-A Scranton (9-8 win over Toledo)
2B Kevin Russo: 2-5, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI
RF-CF Colin Curtis: 3-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS — seven hits in his last 13 at-bats (.538)
1B Steve Pearce: 1-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K — fourth homer in his last ten games
DH Jack Cust: 1-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K
LF Ronnie Mustelier: 2-4, 1 HBP
3B Brandon Laird: 1-3, 2 BB — six hits in his last 18 at-bats (.333)
C Frankie Cervelli: 1-2, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB — helluva game, but he also bounced into a 5-4-3 triple play
SS Ramiro Pena: 0-4, 1 R, 1 BB
CF Ray Kruml: 1-1, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI — not sure why he was lifted in the fifth
PH-RF Cole Garner: 1-3, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 K
LHP Manny Banuelos: 4 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 Balk, 1 HB, 3/4 GB/FB — 56 of 94 pitches were strikes (59.6%) … first dud since coming off the DL
RHP Nelson Figueroa: 3 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 2/2 GB/FB — 31 of 51 pitches were strikes (60.8%)
LHP Justin Thomas: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 1/0 GB/FB — 12 of 19 pitches were strikes (63.2%)
RHP Kevin Whelan: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1/0 GB/FB — seven of 17 pitches were strikes … loaded the bases with no one out, but then got a strikeout and a double play to escape
Mitchell strikes out ten in Charleston win
Posted by: | CommentsEduardo Nunez left yesterday’s game with a sore thumb and Brian Cashman confirmed that he’s going to miss three or four days. That’s good, I don’t want him sitting out and dwelling on his defensive problems for two weeks or something. Right-hander Jose Ramirez was placed on the DL for the an unknown reason and that sucks. He’s been pitching quite well of late.
Anyway, based on his Twitter feed, left-hander Evan Rutckyj has been promoted to Low-A Charleston and will presumably join their rotation.
Update: Caleb Cotham is on his way to join High-A Tampa according to his Twitter feed. Yep, it’s officially promotion season.
Triple-A Empire State (4-1 win over Toledo)
2B Kevin Russo: 1-5, 1 K
CF Colin Curtis: 3-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 CS — had been in a nasty 3-for-34 slump (.088)
1B Steve Pearce: 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI
DH Jack Cust: 0-2, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K
LF Ronnie Mustelier: 2-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI — seventh homer in 37 games this year after hitting just three in 36 games last year
3B Brandon Laird, C Frankie Cervelli, RF Cole Garner & SS Ramiro Pena: all 0-4 — Laird and Cervelli each struck out twice, Gardner and Pena once each
RHP Ramon Ortiz: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 5/5 GB/FB — 62 of 90 pitches were strikes (68.9%) … look at the old man doin’ work
RHP Chase Whitley: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 1/1 GB/FB — 13 of 22 pitches were strikes (59.1%)
RHP Manny Delcarmen: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1/0 GB/FB — just 11 of 23 pitches were strikes (47.8% … filling in at closer after Kevin Whelan had pitched in each of the last two games
Mason Williams and the next level
Posted by: | Comments
(Photo via The Post and Courier)
The minor league season is roughly six weeks old, about a quarter of the way through the 140-game schedule for the four full season leagues. Almost every high-upside position player prospect in the Yankees’ system is playing for Low-A Charleston at the moment, and they’re all raking. Tyler Austin has more homers (12) than any non-Curtis Granderson player in the organization, Gary Sanchez owns a .333/.380/.483 batting line as a 19-year-old, and Dante Bichette Jr. is in the middle of a hot streak (hitting .367 in his last eight games) after a slow start.
Then there’s Mason Williams, the team’s top position player prospect coming into the season in my opinion. As you can see in the sidebar, he’s produced a .366 wOBA in 141 plate appearances this year, flashing both power (14 extra-base hits) and speed (12 steals). As impressive as those numbers are, his strikeout and walk rates are eye-popping. Williams has only struck out six times in those 141 plate appearances, a hilariously low 4.3 K%*. His eight walks result in a 5.7 BB%, meaning he’s put the ball in play in nine out of ten plate appearances this year. That’s just out of this world.
* Furthermore, two of those strikeouts came in consecutive plate appearances against Dylan Bundy a few weeks ago, arguably the best pitching prospect in the world right now. Against mere mortals, his strikeout rate is 2.9%. Ridiculous.
I bring this up because sometime in the near future, we’re going to see some prospects get midseason promotions to the next level. Some promotions are more exciting than others but they all indicate some kind of progress. Sanchez will surely get bumped to High-A Tampa because he’s repeating Low-A, just as an example.
Most players drafted out of high school will spend a full year at each level, at least in the lower minors when they’re first cutting their teeth. Obviously there is the occasional Justin Upton-esque exception, but a full year at each level is a decent rule of thumb. Williams came into this season with 317 short season plate appearances and added those 141 plate appearances this year, which amount to 458 career plate appearances. About a hundred short of a full season’s worth. That said, I think Mason’s absurd strikeout and walk rates are an indication that he’s ready for the next level.
Simply put, Williams is not having trouble getting the bat on the ball. Keith Law confirmed Mason’s more aggressive approach (compared to last season) when he saw him last month, and those low strikeout and walk rates indicate that he’s putting the ball in play early in the count. The lack of walks isn’t the result of an inability to recognize balls and strikes, Williams is just putting the ball in play before he sees four balls. Based on the results, it’s hard to complain. That’s why I think a promotion to High-A is worthwhile this summer; he’ll have a chance to face better pitching and continue developing his approach at the plate. It’s tough to get comfortable in deep counts or work on a two-strike approach if you can put the ball in play at will.
Development is not usually something we can accurately measure with statistics, but we rely on them because as outsiders, that’s all we have. We don’t get to see how these kids react to breaking balls or use their changeup in a fastball counts on an everyday basis, so there’s always going to be an element of the unknown for us. Frankly, it’s a pretty significantly sized element of unknown. From here though, it looks like Williams could benefit from a promotion to High-A despite his relatively short stint with the River Dogs.
Austin & Sanchez power Charleston to win
Posted by: | CommentsTriple-A Empire State (3-1 win over Toledo)
SS Eduardo Nunez: 1-4, 2 K, 1 SB, 2 E (fielding, missed catch) — had more on his rough day earlier
PH-LF Ray Kruml: 1-1 — pinch-hit for Nunez in the eighth for an unknown reason
2B-SS Ramiro Pena: 1-5, 1 K, 1 E (fielding)
LF-2B Kevin Russo: 1-2, 1 R, 1 2B, 3 BB — eight walks in his last seven games
DH Steve Pearce: 0-4, 1 R, 1 HBP
RF Cole Garner: 0-4, 1 BB, 3 K — 13 strikeouts in his last seven games
1B Brandon Laird: 1-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K
3B Ronnie Mustelier: 1-3, 1 BB
C Gus Molina: 2-4, 2 RBI, 2 K
CF Colin Curtis: 1-3, 1 BB, 2 K
RHP D.J. Mitchell: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 9/4 GB/FB — 73 of 115 pitches were strikes (63.5%) … he also pitched a runner off first, and I’m glad they’re letting these older Triple-A guys work a little deeper into games and get that pitch count up
LHP Justin Thomas: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1/0 GB/FB — half of his eight pitches were strikes … first appearances since being claimed off waivers over the weekend
RHP Manny Delcarmen: 0.2 IP, zeroes, 1 K — five pitches, four strikes
RHP Kevin Whelan: 1 IP, zeroes, 3 K — nine of 13 pitches were strikes … 31/7 K/BB in 19.2 IP
Update: Nunez makes two errors in third Triple-A game
Posted by: | Comments8:40pm: Via Collins, Nunez left the game with a sore thumb. It’s not expected to be a major issue, which is good news.
5:30pm: In his third game for Triple-A Empire State since being send down late last week, Eduardo Nunez made a pair of errors this afternoon. According to Donnie Collins, the first was just a botched routine grounder and the second a missed catch at second base on a stolen base attempt. Nunez has played shortstop all three games and for whatever reason, he was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning today.
The Yankees sent Nunez down with hopes that playing regularly will improve his defense, but obviously that’s a process that will take more than three games. I’m worried about his confidence more than anything, and Collins said it appears Nunez is playing as if he’s afraid to make a mistake. I got a similar vibe watching him with the big league team in recent weeks, and again, I hope he doesn’t lose all confidence and develop the yips or something. That would suck. Hopefully he didn’t leave the game with an injury and can get back out there tomorrow to keep working.
Betances wild again in AAA loss
Posted by: | CommentsCheck out this David Driver article on Brett Marshall, who spoke about the time he’s spent with Andy Pettitte and also about his brother Chris, who just returned from a tour of duty in Iraq. Oh, and apparently the Low-A South Atlantic League will hold their Homerun Derby on an aircraft carrier this summer, which is awesome. The game is in Charleston and figures to feature a lot of hometown River Dogs.
In other news, Craig Heyer was placed on the DL after leaving a start with arm stiffness over the weekend. Double-A Trenton added Adam Miller in his place and also activated Walt Ibarra from the DL. Jose Toussen was send back to High-A Tampa in a corresponding move. The recently claimed Justin Thomas took Cody Eppley‘s Triple-A roster spot.
Update: Mikey O’Brien has been promoted to Double-A, which is well-deserved.
Triple-A Scranton (8-2 loss to Toledo)
SS Eduardo Nunez: 1-4, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB
LF Kevin Russo: 1-4, 2 K
1B Steve Pearce: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 K
DH Jack Cust: 1-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K — 13 walks in his last ten games
3B Brandon Laird: 2-4, 1 K — two straight two-hit games
CF Colin Curtis, C Frankie Cervelli & 2B Ramiro Pena: all 0-4 — Pena struck out … Curtis made one throwing error while Cervelli made two … Cervelli allowed a passed ball
RF Cole Garner: 1-4, 1 R, 2 K
RHP Dellin Betances: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 1/2 GB/FB — only 50 of 104 pitches were strikes (48.1%), but at least he hit 97 on the gun … at least six walks in four of his last seven starts, which is just awful
RHP Jason Bulger: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2/0 GB/FB — only eight of 19 pitches were strikes (42.1%)
LHP Juan Cedeno: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 2/1 GB/FB — 27 of 45 pitches were strikes (60%)
RHP Kevin Whelan: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 18 of 26 pitches were strikes (69.2%)
2012 Draft: Keith Law’s Mock Draft v1.0
Posted by: | CommentsKeith Law posted his first mock draft of the spring, though you need Insider to read the entire thing. He has the Astros taking Stanford RHP Mark Appel with the top pick and the Yankees taking Florida high school shortstop Addison Russell with their first rounder (#30 overall). Russell’s a bat-first prospect who can hit breaking balls and shows big raw power, but he’s likely to wind up a third base despite fine defensive skills and a strong arm. He’s just a big boy — listed at 6-foot-0 and 215 lbs. — who will likely outgrow the position.
Law also hears that the Yankees have interest in high school outfielders D.J. Davis (Mississippi) and Mitch Gueller (Washington). I wrote up Davis a few weeks ago, and Gueller is a two-way prospect who’s probably drawn more attention for his work on the mound. The consensus indicates that he might be a bit of a reach in the first round, but who really knows. The Yankees love their high school position players though, and Law’s info is consistent with their track record.
Warren strong in Empire State loss
Posted by: | CommentsGot some notes…
- Slade Heathcott played in his first Extended Spring Training game this afternoon. He’s scheduled to re-join High-A Tampa early next month following his latest left shoulder injury.
- Shane Greene has been sent to Extended Spring Training from High-A Tampa. He got annihilated last time out and his Twitter feed makes it sound like the demotion is performance (not injury or discipline) related, which is kinda weird. Super-sleeper Matt Tracy is taking his place on the roster though, and that’s fun. Adam Miller was sent from Triple-A to Double-A.
- Both Manny Banuelos and Angelo Gumbs made this week’s Ten Pack. You need a Baseball Prospectus subscription to read the entire thing, but both the Banuelos and Gumbs capsules are above the paywall. In other words, you don’t need a subscription for those two so check it out.
- Gumbs and Steve Pearce were named the Offensive Players of the Week for the Low-A South Atlantic League and Triple-A International League, respectively. Gumbs stole 11 bases in 12 tries last week.
- Jim Callis wrote about Cody Johnson briefly in this week’s Ask BA. He’s arguably the club’s best left-handed power prospect, but Johnson has struggled to make contact since turning pro and led the minors with 195 strikeouts last season.
Triple-A Scranton (1-0 loss to Durham)
SS Eduardo Nunez: 1-5, 1 CS — first game since being sent down … he led off the ninth with a single before getting thrown out trying to steal second
LF Kevin Russo, DH Jack Cust & 2B Ramiro Pena: all 0-3 — Russo walked twice, stole a base, and struck out once … Cust walked twice and struck out thrice … Pena walked once
1B Steve Pearce & RF Cole Garner: both 0-4, 2 K — Pearce got hit by a pitch
RF Ronnie Mustelier: 1-4, 2 K, 1 SB – 11 hits in ten games since the promotion
3B Brandon Laird: 2-3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 E (throwing) — had been in a 2-for-27 rut (7.4%)
C Frankie Cervelli: 1-2, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 PB
RHP Adam Warren: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 10/4 GB/FB — 62 of 97 pitches were strikes (63.9%) … his best start of the season, good to see him get off the schneid
RHP Cody Eppley: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 2/0 GB/FB – 11 of 17 pitches were strikes (64.7%)
RHP Manny Delcarmen: 1 IP, zeroes, 3 K — 11 of 16 pitches were strikes (68.8%) … I wonder if he could pitch his way onto the big league roster, not that I want to see it happen
