Blogging legend Chad Jennings spoke to Nardi Contreras – the Yanks’ minor league pitching coordinator – late last week, and has some interesting info on guys like Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox and Phil Coke (amongst others). Quick summary: Sanchez will be a reliever in 2009, Cox just flat-out ran out of gas last year, and no one really knows what role Coke will play at the start of the season. Make sure you give it a read.
Hyping Mark Melancon
It’s easy for us to overhype the Yanks’ prospects. We want every young kid to be the second coming of Derek Jeter or Bernie Williams, but more often than not, these youngsters end up being the fiftieth coming of Ricky Ledee. But this year might be different for the Yanks have a reliever earning a lot of pre-season buzz. As Chad Jennings writes, the Yanks are expecting big things out of Mark Melancon this year, and they view the 23-year-old as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera. Those are some lofty expectations for a pitcher with just 20 AAA innings under his belt, but he sounds as though he’s up for the challenge.
Mariners sign first round pick
Via Jim Street of MLB.com, the Mariners have signed RHP Josh Fields, their 2008 first round pick. Fields was a senior and ran out of college eligibility, which is why the August 15th deadline didn’t apply to him. So why do Yankees fans care? Because as Lane Meyer of NoMaas explains, Fields’ signing eliminates the compensation pick Seattle would have received if he didn’t sign, so now the Red Sox pick one spot ahead of the Yanks instead of one spot behind them. You can see the updated pick order at our 2009 Draft Order Tracker. Oh well, such is life.
2009 Preseason Top 30 Prospects
Over the years I’ve gone through phases when it comes to these lists. A few years ago I was all about upside; if you had a significant ceiling you were making my list, regardless if you struck out 195 times in 134 games (coughTimBattlecough). These days I find myself favoring probability and closeness to the majors. Don’t get me wrong, upside is still a huge part of prospect rankings, but I’m definitely starting to weigh readiness more in my rankings. It just makes sense considering the shift towards younger players in today’s game.
The Yankees’ system was definitely in the red this year. The losses sustained due to graduation, trades, injuries and ineffectiveness outweigh the gains brought on by breakouts and player acquisitions. Three players from last year’s top ten are no longer with the organization, and just one player from the top five makes a repeat showing there this year. On top of that the Yanks failed to sign their first and second round draft picks. While they’ll reap the benefits of the compensation picks this year, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to match the potential of Gerrit Cole, nevermind Scott Bittle. Forfeiting their first, second and third round picks in next year’s draft for signing free agents means they’ll be working at a disadvantage as they try to rebuild the system.
Despite all that, the Yanks’ affiliates did a whole lotta winning this year. Triple-A Scranton and Double-A Trenton (pictured) each won their league titles this year, and it was Trenton’s second consecutive championship. All told the minor league affiliates combined for a 406-287 record (.586 winning percentage), far and away the best in baseball. They were the only club to eclipsed the 400 win mark, and the next best organization (Rangers) had a .556 winning percentage. Winning obviously takes a back seat to development in the minor leagues, but it’s always nice to give your young players a taste of success.
As I was putting this list together, I didn’t have to put too much thought into figuring out who the organization’s top three prospects were. Barring a trade I knew exactly who numbers one, two and three were going to be basically since September. Numbers four through seven are pretty interchangeable in my eyes, eight through nineteen even more so. Don’t get too worked up if I ranked your favorite prospect lower than you would have liked, quite often the difference between a set of two, three or ten prospects is smaller than you may think.
It’s always fun to go back in time and see how things worked out, so here’s my 2007 and 2008 lists. Otherwise, the fun starts after the jump. Ages are as of Opening Day.
Oliver wins case against NCAA
Andy Oliver, a LHP at Oklahoma State, won his lawsuit against the NCAA today, and he has been deemed eligible for the upcoming baseball season. There’s a chance you remember hearing me speak about Oliver the end of an early January edition of the RAB Radio Show, but if not, let me review succinctly: Oliver sued the NCAA because he was ruled ineligible after it was discovered that he had used an agent to negotiate on his behalf back when the Twin’s drafted him in the 17th round of the 2006 draft. Today’s ruling abolished the “no agent” rule, so amateur players can now hire representation without consequences.
Players hired agents anyway, so why is this such a big deal? Because now Scott Boras can hold a press conference and officially say “Stephen Strasburg will not sign for anything less than $12M.” That’s an extreme example, but it gives you can idea how this can affect the already broken draft system.
2009 Preseason Not Top 30 Prospects
One of the most difficult parts of putting together a prospect list of any size is sorting out the back end. There always seems to be about ten or twelve players worthy of those last three or four spots, and in the end it comes down to personal preference. Do you go with the high upside youngster with little to no professional experience, or the older and more polished player on the cusp of the big leagues despite a lower ceiling? No matter which way you go there will always be someone left on the outside looking in.
Last year I prefaced my Top 30 by profiling the five players who fell just short of making the list, but I wanted to change things up this year. Instead of posting a feature on prospects 31-35, I’m going to highlight some players that didn’t make the list this year, but could very well make it next year. One or two of these players were in that 31-35 range, but the rest are still too raw for me to seriously consider them for a Top 30 spot. If they develop and improve the weaker parts of their games in 2009, there’s a good chance all of them will make the big boy list next year.
The good stuff starts after the jump.
Project Prospect’s Organizational Rankings
It’s prospect season, which is why you’re seeing oodles of lists and rankings and projections coming out. The guys at Project Prospect posted their list of organization rankings today, ranking each club’s farm system based strictly on position prospects. Despite lacking in that department, the Yanks still came in 17th thanks primarily to the 1-2 punch of Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. I think the Marlins are the clear leader in position player prospects with Cam Maybin, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Skipworth, Chris Coghlan and Gaby Sanchez. That’s just not fair.
Also, make sure you check out this THT article on minor league defensive statistics. That should be useful.
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