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The Official RAB 2018-19 Offseason Plan

November 6, 2018 by Mike

“Where’s the RAB offseason plan? I need a laugh.” (Mike Stobe/Getty)

A little less than two weeks ago the Red Sox won the 2018 World Series and sent us all into the offseason. There are now more than three months to go before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and nearly five months to go before Opening Day. The offseason is fun in its own way, sure, but actual baseball is a long ways away. Sucks.

Anyway, now that the offseason is underway, it’s time again to put together my annual offseason plan. My 2016-17 plan and 2017-18 plan were so bad! Among my moves were trading Luis Severino (and more!) for Sonny Gray, signing Mark Melancon instead of Aroldis Chapman, and giving Michael Pineda a $65M extension. Thank goodness I just run a blog and not anything important, huh?

Last offseason we didn’t have to make any assumptions about payroll. We knew the Yankees would stick to the $197M luxury tax threshold and they did exactly that. The Yankees reset their tax rate. Will they spend lavishly this offseason? Brian Cashman hedged a bit, but that is not surprising. Even if the Yanks are planning a spending spree, they wouldn’t announce it to the world. That does them no good.

Cashman indicated he can go to Hal Steinbrenner for approval to go over the luxury tax threshold next year. I can’t do that. I’m going to stick to the $206M luxury tax threshold for my offseason plan. I’m not comfortable assuming I can spend more. Hopefully Cashman and the Yankees exceed the threshold in real life because there are some great free agents out there. Let’s get into the offseason plan.

Option Decisions

The Yankees only had one option decision this offseason: Brett Gardner’s club option. It’s a $12.5M salary with a $2M buyout. Last week the Yankees declined the option and re-signed Gardner to a new one-year deal worth $7.5M. Add in the buyout and he gets $9.5M total. In my fantasy offseason plan, I am declining the option and walking away. I love Gardner. He’s been a very productive player the last decade or so and emerged as a heart and soul guy in recent years, but I’m going in another direction.

As far as the luxury tax is concerned, buying out the option has no impact in 2018 or 2019. I do have to pay Gardner his $2M, but that money was lumped in with the average annual value of his contract the last few years. It’s already been taxed and everything. It’s a clean break. Hopefully Gardner catches on with another contender (the Indians would seem like a fit). I’m cutting ties and moving forward with a plan for a younger outfielder. Brett will be back for Old Timers’ Day at some point though, don’t worry.

Qualifying Offers

Despite all their free agents, Gardner and CC Sabathia are the only Yankees eligible for the $17.9M qualifying offer. I am giving it to neither. (The Yankees didn’t give it to Sabathia.) I mean, duh. I didn’t pass on Gardner’s $12.5M option only to turn around and give him the $17.9M qualifying offer. Sabathia played on a one-year, $10M contract this past season and he can be re-signed as a similar rate for next year. Gardner and Sabathia would both accept the qualifying offer in a heartbeat, so I’m not giving it to them. No extra draft picks next year, folks.

Rule 5 Draft Protection

Getting all the busy work out of the way early. Just going chronologically, the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is the next deadline anyway. The Yankees already made their major Rule 5 Draft protection decisions a few weeks ago when they called up Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley during the season. Here are this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects. Here are my decisions:

Add to 40-man roster: Nick Green, Kyle Holder, Erik Swanson
Notables left exposed: Trey Amburgey, Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, Pablo Olivares, Hoy Jun Park, James Reeves, Brandon Wagner

The Yankees catch a bit of a break this offseason. Estevan Florial and Freicer Perez both signed during the 2014-15 international signing period like Castillo and Garcia and Park, but they are not Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter because they signed late in the signing period. The Yankees get to wait an extra year with those two and that saves two 40-man spots. Well, at least one spot with Florial. I’m not sure Perez would’ve been protected coming off shoulder surgery.

As for my protection decisions, Swanson and Holder are easy calls. Swanson had a 2.66 ERA (2.91 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 6.2% walks in 121.2 innings at Double-A and Triple-A this year. The stuff is good and the results are good, and he’s knocking on the big league door. That’s a guy you add to the 40-man. Holder hasn’t hit much in his pro career but he can play the hell out of shortstop, and I’m pretty sure some team would take a shot on him as a utility infielder if he’s left exposed. Great defensive shortstops are worth keeping.

Green is my dude. Maybe adding him to the 40-man is irrational after a season in which he had a 3.28 ERA (4.15 FIP) with an 11.2% walk rate in 115.1 High-A innings, but his funky cutter/sinker fastball fascinates me, and it helped him post the highest ground ball rate in the minors (66.4%) among pitchers with at least 130 innings. Green might only be a reliever long-term, but what if he’s a turbosinker guy like Blake Treinen or even just Jared Hughes? That’s pretty valuable! I don’t want to risk losing him to a rebuilding team willing to stash him in long relief all year.

I was on the fence about Wagner because he hasn’t done much above Single-A ball yet, but he has natural left-handed power and became a launch angle guy this year — Wagner went from 45.5% grounders last year to 35.6% this year — and the result was 21 homers in 124 games. Wagner plays both corner infield spots and the Yankees even had him dabble at second this season. I just don’t see him sticking in the show next year. And it’s not like he plays a premium position like Luis Torrens, you know? Corner infield bats with limited time above Single-A usually aren’t a hot Rule 5 Draft commodity. I’m rolling the dice and leaving Wagner unprotected.

I didn’t have to think too hard about any of the other guys I’m leaving exposed. Amburgey has some tools and had an okay year in Double-A, but it’s not the most difficult profile to find in free agency. Reeves could get taken in the Rule 5 Draft because he is left-handed and breathing, though LOOGYs are going the way of the dodo bird, and I don’t see enough utility here. Some random arms will inevitably get popped (Tyler Jones, Evan Rutckyj, and Anyelo Gomez were taken from the Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years) and my guess is the Triple-A Scranton setup man/closer combo of Raynel Espinal and Joe Harvey have a chance to go. We’ll see.

Including my decision to decline Gardner’s option, we had nine players become free agents at the outset of the offseason (Gardner, Sabathia, Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarria, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, Neil Walker) and seven of those nine 40-man roster spots went to my three Rule 5 Draft players and the four guys who had to be activated off the 60-day DL (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery). I have two open 40-man spots. Onward.

Arbitration

The Yankees have their largest arbitration class in a very long time this offseason. Not necessarily in terms of the number of arbitration-eligible players, but in terms of projected salary. It’s a pricey class. Here are my arbitration payouts:

Didi Gregorius: Two years, $20M
Sonny Gray: $9.1M
Dellin Betances: $6.4M
Aaron Hicks: $6.2M
Luis Severino: $5.1M
Austin Romine: $2.0M
Tommy Kahnle: $1.5M
Greg Bird: $1.5M
Ronald Torreyes: $900,000

The smartest thing I ever did in these offseason plan posts was sign Gregorius to a five-year extension worth $42.5M with a club option for a sixth year back during the 2016-17 offseason. He would’ve been two years into that contract right now, and yeah, he would’ve missed most of the third season with his Tommy John surgery rehab, but at least the Yankees would have him for another two years beyond that plus potentially a third year on the option. Alas.

Didi’s injury really complicates things. I love the guy. I think we all love the guy. But he’s projected for $12.4M next season. Is it really smart to commit that much money to a player rehabbing a major injury when he can become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to sink into not many at-bats. I don’t want to non-tender Gregorius and just walk away either. After all, he could return in June or July and play half a season. My compromise two-year, $20M contract is broken down like so:

2019: $8M salary
2020: $12M salary (can opt out with 300 plate appearances in 2019)

For the Yankees, they get Gregorius at a reduced rate (both in terms of actual salary and luxury tax hit) next year while he rehabs, and also don’t have to worry about losing him to free agency if he misses most of the season. It won’t be rehab money for nothing. For Gregorius, he gets a good salary while rehabbing in 2019, and if rehab goes well and he plays half-a-season, he still gets to test free agency. And if rehab doesn’t go well, he has peace of mind knowing there’s still $12M coming his way in 2020.

I get that there may be some concern on Didi’s part that the Yankees would manipulate his playing time to ensure the opt-out doesn’t kick in (“how unfortunate, you finished at 296 plate appearances, sorry”), and I’m not sure how to assuage those concerns. My goal is to win now. Right now. And the more Gregorius is on the field, the better. Maybe the magic number is 200 plate appearances instead of 300? The idea here is reducing the 2019 payroll hit while Didi rehabs and still giving him some control over his future. There’s some give and some take here, you know?

All of the other arbitration-eligible players are at their MLBTR projected salaries. MLBTR’s model is quite accurate and I see no reason to deviate. I thought about extensions for Hicks and Betances but decided to pass. Dellin is the man but he is quite unpredictable, and I am totally cool with playing out next season and figuring out his future next winter, when he’s on the cusp of free agency. Hicks? We’ll get back to him in a bit. Stay tuned.

Also, I’m not really sure where to mention this, so I’ll do it here. I’m non-tendering Heller and re-signing him to a minor league contract to open another 40-man roster spot. He had Tommy John surgery in April and the typical rehab schedule puts him on track to return sometime in May or June. The Yankees have done the non-tender/re-sign thing with a few other Tommy John surgery guys (Domingo German, Vicente Campos) and I’m doing it with Heller. I thought about doing it with Thairo Estrada too, but he is a shortstop capable infielder with some offensive potential and two minor league options remaining. Plus he’s playing in the Arizona Fall League right now, so he’s healthy. I’m sure another team would give him a Major League contract in free agency. Thairo stays on the 40-man. Heller does not. I now have three open 40-man spots.

Trades

Okay, now it’s time for the fun stuff. I love trades so much. They are a million times more fun than boring old free agent signings. I love the challenge aspect — I’m betting the guys you give me are better than the guys I give you — and the fact there are so many roster ramifications. As a guy who blogs a lot about baseball, trades are a goldmine. Anyway, here are my trades listed in order of sentence length:

Sonny Gray to the Brewers and Mike King to the Rangers; Chase Anderson to the Rangers; Jurickson Profar to the Yankees.
Jacoby Ellsbury and Luis Cessa to the Marlins for Wei-Yin Chen.
Jonathan Loaisiga to the Rockies for Raimel Tapia.

(Reminder: My trade proposals suck.)

I can feel the angst radiating through the screen. Because I trade Gray and Cessa, right? Yeah, that’s probably it. I know you’re all sad to see them go. Anyway, let’s break these trades down.

1. Sonny’s gotta go. We all know Sonny Gray is getting traded at some point. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it more clear. The Brewers, even with pitching coach Derek Johnson (Gray’s former pitching coach at Vanderbilt) jumping ship to the Reds last week, still stand out as the most logical landing spot to me. They need a starter and GM David Stearns has focused on upside plays since arriving. Gray fits.

The Yankees, meanwhile, need an infielder to help replace Gregorius. And the Rangers need pitching. Lots and lots of pitching. As much as they can get. The three-team trade breaks down like so:

Brewers get: Sonny Gray
Rangers get: Chase Anderson and Mike King
Yankees get: Jurickson Profar

Anderson was very good last year (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and good but not great this year (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), and he’s signed affordably, with $24.5M coming his way the next three years if his 2020 and 2021 options are exercised. My knowledgeable Brewers fan friends have been pushing Anderson for Gray for weeks, so I feel somewhat confident this is in the ballpark. I don’t love Anderson though, so I’m flipping him to Texas.

The Rangers, very clearly, need pitching. Their starters ranked 29th in ERA (5.37) and 29th in FIP (5.18) this past season. When the only team to get worse rotation work than you is the 115-loss Orioles, yeah, you need starters. This is Texas’ rotation depth chart on their official site (with 2018 stats):

LHP Mike Minor: 4.18 ERA (4.43 FIP) in 157 innings
RHP Ariel Jurado: 5.93 ERA (5.01 FIP) in 54.2 innings
LHP Yohander Mendez: 5.53 ERA (5.36 FIP) in 27.2 innings
RHP Adrian Sampson: 4.30 ERA (6.03 FIP) in 23 innings
LHP Drew Smyly: Hasn’t pitched since 2016 due to Tommy John surgery and setbacks

In Anderson, the Rangers get three years of a legitimate MLB starter who is one year removed from a comfortably above-average season. In King, they get a soon-to-be MLB ready pitching prospect who may crack their Opening Day rotation. It is not unreasonable to look at Texas’ end of this deal as Profar for two starters with multiple years of control who will be in their rotation by the end of 2019.

The Yankees get Profar, who was the top prospect in baseball before a pair of shoulder surgeries derailed him from 2014-17. He steps in to replace Gregorius in the short-term before (potentially) moving back into a supersub role long-term. Profar’s played all four infield positions and left field. He’s best at second base — the two shoulder surgeries have robbed him of arm strength — but he can play first, short, third, and left. That’s pretty cool.

This season the 25-year-old switch-hitting Profar hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and promising strikeout (14.8%) and walk (9.1%) rates. It was far and away his best MLB season. Why would Texas trade him? Well, there have been rumblings about a trade for years (the Yankees checked in) and he’s two years from free agency. After all the injuries, Profar’s trade value might not ever again be as high as it is right now.

Also, Texas declined to give Profar a September call-up last year, which delayed his free agency and reportedly had him considering a grievance. I’m not sure the Rangers and Profar are on the best of terms. Re-signing him in two years may not be on the table. King’s a good prospect but I am more than happy to part with him to bet on Profar’s upside. Getting the Brewers and Gray involved gets Texas two starters they so clearly need.

2. Salary dumping Ellsbury. I wrote about the Ellsbury-for-Chen idea last week, so I’m going to keep this brief. Since the Padres ate $13M in 2018 to get their hands on Bryan Mitchell, I’m assuming the Marlins will take on the $5.28M difference in salaries spread across 2019 and 2020 to acquire Cessa. They can either pay Chen $40-something-million, or pay Ellsbury $40-something-million and get a young-ish pitcher out of it. The bad contract (and Cessa) for bad contract swap saves the Yankees $5.86M against the luxury tax in 2019 and 2020.

3. The next buy-low guy. The Yankees struck gold when they acquired Gregorius (for Shane Greene!) and Hicks (for John Ryan Murphy!). We’re due for another one of those trades. Tapia is a former top 100 prospect who, like Hicks at the time of his trade, is out of minor league options with no real place to play. The Rockies have David Dahl and Charlie Blackmon in the outfield, plus, given their history, they’re bound to either re-sign Carlos Gonzalez or sign another free agent outfielder to a contract that makes everyone go “huh.” Nick Markakis is my guess. They could also put Ian Desmond back in the outfield and (finally) give Ryan McMahon a shot at first base.

Anyway, Tapia is only 24 and he’s a career .274/.315/.404 (72 wRC+) hitter in 239 big league plate appearances spread across three seasons, and a career .330/.367/.506 (126 wRC+) hitter in nearly 900 career Triple-A plate appearances. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) had to say about Tapia last year, the last time he was prospect eligible:

Tapia is an offensive threat and run-creator who plays with confidence and backs it up. Don’t get caught up in the way he crouches in two-strike situations. He does not have that typical rise before he swings in that situation, instead staying low and maintaining the ability to drive the ball into gaps despite the unique approach. It helps him become more focused on the strike zone in those situations. Tapia has the speed and range to play center field–he earns average grades–and his above-average arm will play on an outfield corner.

I’ve seen Tapia’s two-strike crouch in person and it is too funny. It’s a pretty standard upright batting stance to start the at-bat, then, with two strikes, Tapia goes into this deep crouch and into battle mode. This video is a few years old but it works just as well. Tapia steps in the box, falls behind 0-2, then goes into his crouch and grinds away.

The crouch is a fun baseball thing but that’s not the reason for the trade. Read the scouting report again. Tapia has two-way potential and plenty of tools. He just hasn’t put it all together yet. A left-handed hitter with a line-to-line approach and good outfield defense is a worthy add in my opinion. Even if Tapia spends 2019 as the fourth outfielder and has a 2016 Hicks year, he’s worth a shot. There’s definitely some “buy low on this kid who hasn’t figured it out and reap the rewards” potential here a la Hicks and Gregorius.

As for Loaisiga, man I don’t want to trade him, but you have to give to get. I liked Greene at the time of the Gregorius trade and I really liked Murphy at the time of the Hicks trade, and those deals worked out pretty well. Johnny Lasagna, as talented and promising as he is, has a long and scary injury history. It wouldn’t surprise me if he throws 150 innings with a mid-3.00s ERA next year and it wouldn’t surprise me if he blows out his arm and never pitches again. The Rockies have some outfield depth and are always in the market for arms. Loaisiga for Tapia is this year’s Greene-for-Didi and Murphy-for-Hicks.

For housekeeping purposes, I am trading four 40-man roster players (Cessa, Ellsbury, Gray, Loaisiga) for three 40-man roster players (Chen, Profar, Tapia), so I now have four open 40-man spots. Also, I shed Gray’s salary ($9.1M projected) and took on Profar’s ($3.4M projected), which equals $5.7M in luxury tax savings. The Ellsbury-for-Chen swap saves another $5.86M against the luxury tax. All told, the trades free up $11.56M in luxury tax payroll space.

Free Agents

The Yankees need pitching this offseason, obviously. Pitchers are risky, they tend to break, so my plan is to attack that weakness using money, the club’s greatest resource. If you blow money on a pitcher, so what? The Yankees print money. If you trade three prospects and get Sonny Grayed, well, that sucks. You can’t get those prospects back. So my free agency plan is all about pitching. My signings in order of contract size:

Patrick Corbin: Six years, $120M (opt-out after 2020)
Hyun-Jin Ryu: Three years, $45M
David Robertson: Two years, $25M
Garrett Richards: Three years, $12M (plus incentives with an opt-out after 2020)
CC Sabathia: One year, $8M
Neil Walker: One year, $3M

Five pitchers, including three left-handed starters, plus a utility guy to round out the bench. Hoarding lefty starters was not intentional. I looked at quality over handedness. It just so happened the three 2019 starters I grabbed were all lefties, and hey, lefties are good to have in Yankee Stadium. Let’s talk about the free agent signings.

1. Breaking the bank for Corbin. Well, $20M a year is not really breaking the bank these days. Nine active pitchers have a higher average annual value. Only one of those nine signed his contract after having Tommy John surgery, and that one (Jordan Zimmermann) hasn’t really worked out. Corbin carries more risk than the typical top free agent pitcher because he has had surgery, and because his track record as an elite pitcher is short.

Corbin is now four years removed from Tommy John surgery though, and while I worry about all the hard contact allowed, a 29-year-old who misses this many bats (30.8% strikeouts) and gets this many grounders (48.5%) is hard to pass up. He already throws a ton of sliders (41.5%), so Corbin will fit right in with the anti-fastball Yankees as well. I don’t think he’ll ever post a 3.15 ERA (2.47 FIP) like he did this year again. The tools are there to turn in several more above-average seasons though, and that’s what I’m buying with this signing.

As for the contract, I’m guessing Corbin will get a few five-year offers at $20M or so annually. Tacking on that sixth year may be what it takes to get him — six years and $120M is touch less than Johnny Cueto’s contract with the Giants — and the opt-out gives him some flexibility. If Corbin truly is this good, he can test the market again for one last big payday in two years. Besides, opt-outs are the norm now. All the best free agents get one (or more). Jon Heyman (five years, $100M), FanGraphs (five years, $102.4M), and MLBTR (six years, $129M) project contracts in this ballpark for Corbin.

2. The personal favorite. Man I love Ryu. Have for a while. Back in the day I read a scouting report that called him the “Korean David Wells” and it is too perfect. He’s a hefty lefty and he’s unflappable. “I think you see guys who are a lot more emotional, vocal, but don’t have the same compete as Hyun-Jin. A lot of it is that inner drive and fire and compete. And so many teammates have told me that this guy has ice in his veins, and he’s a big-game pitcher. And the more I’ve gotten to see him execute pitches in big spots, it’s kind of come to fruition,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts during the postseason.

That isn’t to say Ryu is without risk. He missed all of 2015 and nearly all of 2016 with major shoulder surgery, and this season a torn groin cost him several months. Ryu turns 32 in March, so potential age-related decline is a thing too. That said, his velocity returned after shoulder surgery, and he’s a deep arsenal (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, changeup, slider, curveball) command guy who I am comfortable expecting to “figure it out” as he ages. Ryu has the pitchability to continue getting outs as he ages.

Around the groin injury this year Ryu had a 1.97 ERA (3.00 FIP) in 82.1 innings and there’s no way I’d expect that next year. He’s a career 3.20 ERA (3.40 FIP) guy and, at his age and with his injury history and with the move into the AL East, penciling him in as a 3.70 ERA (4.00 FIP) guy who throws 160-ish innings each year is a more reasonable expectation. There is definitely some Hiroki Kuroda here. Ryu is that kind of dogged competitor. He doesn’t have Kuroda’s stuff or durability, but the competitiveness and pitching know-how is there.

It’s important to note the Dodgers gave Ryu the $17.9M qualifying offer and, unlike Corbin, it is not certain he will decline it. Ryu is said to love Los Angeles. Heyman (three years, $37.5M), FanGraphs (three years, $35.5M), and MLBTR (three years, $33M) come in with contract estimates below what I’m offering. That’s because I’m assuming I have to buy Ryu away from the Dodgers. Come in with the offer early and convince him to pass on the qualifying offer and come to New York, where he still has a chance to win a title. Besides, a non-stop flight home to South Korea isn’t that much longer from New York as it is from Los Angeles (because they fly over the North Pole).

3. Looking ahead with Richards. The Yankees are a spin rate organization and Richards is the spin rate king. This year he had the third highest four-seamer spin rate, highest slider spin rate, and highest curveball spin rate. No one can make the ball spin like Richards. He also had Tommy John surgery in July, so he’s probably not going to pitch next year. Signing him is a move for 2020 and 2021.

These contracts for Tommy John surgery guys are getting more expensive. Nathan Eovaldi’s deal with the Rays was one year at $2M with a club option for a second year. (Eovaldi’s deal maxed out at $7.5M.) Michael Pineda got two years and $10M from the Twins. Richards has an ugly injury history (138.2 innings from 2016-18) and adding the third year is a way to keep the average annual salary down, in theory. I’m thinking this is the breakdown:

2019: $2M while rehabbing
2020: $5M (plus $3M in incentives, can opt-out after 2020)
2021: $5M (plus $3M in incentives)

The $2M base salary during the Tommy John surgery rehab year is standard. That’s what Eovaldi and Pineda got. The second and third years are $5M base salaries with another $3M in bonuses based on starts ($250,000 each for 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 starts) and innings ($250,000 each for 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160 innings). The opt-out allows Richards to go out and get more money if he comes back strong in 2020. And, if things go south post-elbow reconstruction, he knows he has that $5M coming to him in 2021.

The contract comes with a $4M luxury tax hit and that’s dead money for next season. We’ll sit on that and hopefully be rewarded in 2020. Richards was quite good before his elbow gave out this year (3.66 ERA and 4.13 FIP) and he’s only 30, and a long Tommy John surgery rehab (June 2018 to March 2020) could have him ready to contribute right away come Opening Day 2020. He’s good and he’s worth a roll of the dice.

4. Welcoming back Robertson, Sabathia, and Walker. Robertson is still excellent and bringing him back is a no-brainer to me. Easiest call in free agency this offseason. Sabathia threw 153 innings with a 3.65 ERA (4.16 FIP) and a ton of soft contact last year and I’m penciling him in for 140-ish league average innings next year. As the fifth starter behind Corbin and Ryu and the two incumbents (Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka), that is more than fine. Don’t count on him to eat innings or even start a postseason game. Just be a good fifth starter and police the clubhouse.

As for Walker, I’m hopeful Year Two as a utility guy will go better than Year One now that he has some experience in that role. This season was the first time in his career he wasn’t a full-time player. It’s an adjustment. Walker’s a pro’s pro who had good at-bats and a couple big hits this year, and he really seemed to enjoy being a Yankee. He can play three infield spots and even volunteered to play right field when Aaron Judge got hurt. Being a bench guy isn’t easy. I think Walker can be better in 2019 than he was in 2018 now that he’s more familiar with the role.

5. What about Harper or Machado? Believe me, I tried to make it work. I thought about splurging for one of them and going cheap on pretty much everything else, which meant gutting the farm system to trade for low cost pitching, and that just leads to a mid-2000s style top heavy roster. I don’t think you can win like that these days. You need that 1-25 (1-40, really) depth. There’s not enough room under the luxury tax threshold for a huge contract like the one needed to land Harper or Machado.

I’m a Harper over Machado guy, have been for years (you know that if you frequent our weekly chats), and I really wanted to make it work. I think Harper is a generational talent who is about to entire his prime years, which means some history-making seasons may be on the horizon. I hope Hal Steinbrenner okays a big signing that takes the Yankees over the $206M luxury tax threshold because talent like this, you can’t pass up. In my fantasy offseason plan, I have little choice but to look elsewhere. Sucks, but what can you do?

Now for the roster housekeeping. I had four open 40-man roster spots before signing six free agents, so I have to clear two spots. (Richards, Gregorius, and Jordan Montgomery are 60-day DL candidates, but there is no disabled list in the offseason, so they’re dead spots for now.) To clear those two spots, I am designating A.J. Cole and Kyle Higashioka for assignment. If they clear waivers and remain in the organization as non-40-man roster players, great. If not, I’ll survive.

Also, I have to note that we’re giving up some draft picks to sign Corbin and Ryu, both of whom received the qualifying offer. We’re giving up draft picks and international bonus money. The Yankees have to give up their second highest draft pick and $500,000 in bonus money for the 2019-20 international signing period each time they sign a qualified free agent. So we’re giving up our second and third round picks, as well as $1M in international bonus money next signing period, to sign the two lefties. Not a big deal in my opinion.

Minor League Contracts

I am pretty confident Higashioka will clear outright waivers. Already this month catchers like Jesus Sucre and Carlos Perez have cleared waivers, and if those guys didn’t get claimed, I don’t think Higashioka will. Assuming Higashioka does clear, this is the tentative Triple-A Scranton lineup:

Catcher: Higashioka
First Base: Mike Ford
Second Base: Thairo Estrada
Shortstop: Tyler Wade
Third Base: ???
Outfield: Clint Frazier, Ryan McBroom, Mark Payton, Zack Zehner

Kyle Holder played only 32 Double-A games last year around injuries, so he’s not really a Triple-A option come Opening Day 2019. So we need an everyday infielder and a center field capable outfielder at the very least. Plus pitching. Every team grabs pitching depth on minor league contracts in the offseason. Those David Hale types don’t sign themselves, you know. My minor league contracts:

IF Christian Colon: Former fourth overall pick has been a good Triple-A player in recent years. He can play wherever the RailRiders need him. Also, he has a World Series winning hit to his credit.
RHP Drew Hutchison: The one-time Blue Jays’ Opening Day starter is now a Triple-A journeyman. He’s kinda the perfect “go eat innings so we don’t overwork the actual prospects” depth arm.
C Rene Rivera: Veteran backup backstop missed most of this season with knee trouble. I’d let him compete for the backup job in Spring Training and stash him in Triple-A if he doesn’t win it.
RHP Carson Smith: The Red Sox cut ties with Smith last week. Injuries, including shoulder surgery to repair damage caused when he threw his glove in frustration, have limited him to 23.2 innings from 2016-18. Smith just turned 29 and he was a strikeout/ground ball machine when healthy. Worth a shot on a minor league deal.
OF Matt Szczur: Szczur (pronounced See-zur) had a nice little run as a platoon bat with the Cubs before moving on to the Padres. He can run, play defense, get on base against lefties, etc.

Given their status as big league quasi-veterans, I have to think Hutchison, Rivera, and Smith will want opt-out clauses in their minor league contracts so they could go somewhere else should they not be called up by a certain date. That’s fine. Give them the opt-outs. I’m just looking for depth pieces here. Guys to plug the holes in Triple-A Scranton’s roster.

The Last Second Extension

One last big move to close out the offseason. After signing him to a one-year, $6.2M contract to avoid arbitration, I’m giving Hicks a five-year extension worth $80M that begins in 2020. It is effectively a six-year contract worth $86.2M. Hicks turns 30 next October. He’ll spend the entire first year of the extension at that age. Dexter Fowler was 31 for the first season of his five-year, $82.5M deal with the Cardinals. Lorenzo Cain was 32 for the first season of his five-year, $80M deal with the Brewers. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record. Five years and $80M or so is the going rate for an above-average two-way center fielder.

As for the timing of the extension, it’s all about the luxury tax. I wrote about this earlier this year. Sign a player to an extension that begins the season after next and his luxury tax number for next season is unchanged. So, for our purposes, Hicks counts as $6.2M for 2019 and then $16M annually from 2020-24. He’ll end that contract as a corner outfielder, that’s usually how these deals go, but center field long-term is kinda where I hope Tapia fits in. That’s a problem for the future. Point is, I’ve got Hicks at $6.2M next year and locked up long-term as well.

Final Product

After all that, I have my luxury tax payroll at $204.84M going into 2019. Here’s my spreadsheet. That $204.84 already includes money set aside for injury call-ups and September call-ups. The $1.16M remaining under the $206M luxury tax threshold is for midseason trade pickups, which isn’t much, but we can make it work. Give the other team an extra prospect in exchange for eating money. That sorta thing. Anyway, here is my projected 25-man 2019 Opening Day roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Raimel Tapia	Luis Severino	Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	2B Jurickson Profar	CF Aaron Hicks	Patrick Corbin	Dellin Betances
	SS Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	Masahiro Tanaka	David Robertson
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	Hyun-Jin Ryu	Chad Green
DISABLED LIST	IF Ronald Torreyes		CC Sabathia	Jonathan Holder
Didi Gregorius	UTIL Neil Walker			Domingo German
Jordan Montgomery				Wei-Yin Chen
Garrett Richards				Revolving Door

On the 40-man roster and in the minors: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, OF Clint Frazier, RHP Nick Green, IF Kyle Holder, LHP Justus Sheffield, RHP Erik Swanson, LHP Stephen Tarpley, RHP Tommy Kahnle, UTIL Tyler Wade.

Wholesale changes were not needed. After all, this is a mostly young team that won 100 games this year even with Judge, Montgomery, and Sanchez missing all that time. The core is in place. We just needed to solidify the rotation and supplement the roster. Let’s talk out a few other things.

1. What happens at first base? Voit was so good late last year that, at the very least, he’s earned a shot to compete for a job in Spring Training. I mean, the dude hit .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) with 14 homers in 39 games. He had a .448 wOBA and a .441 xwOBA. Voit made loud contact and was rewarded appropriately. I’m not sure I expect him to do that again, but I’m giving him a chance to show he belongs. What if he’s the next Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar, the Triple-A masher who just needs an extended big league opportunity?

As for Bird, he was just so terrible this year. The numbers were ugly and he looked bad at the plate. After these last few seasons, I am not giving Bird the first base job or even a big league roster spot, nor am I giving him a chance to earn a spot in Spring Training. Go to Triple-A, stay healthy and rake, and show you belong in the show. No more gifting Bird anything. Time to make him earn it. Voit gets the first base job on Opening Day and we’ll reevaluate the situation as the season progresses.

2. About the revolving door bullpen spot. An eight-man bullpen and a three-man bench is the norm now. I don’t love it but that’s just the way it is. Chapman, Betances, Robertson, Green, and Holder are bullpen locks. Chen came over in a salary shuffle move and we might as well use him as the long man for the time being. Who knows, maybe he’ll prove useful. German’s stuff is good — very good, in fact — and I want to see what he looks like in short relief. His command isn’t very good but let’s see if he can out-stuff guys the way Betances does.

There’s no sense in picking someone for the revolving door spot. Guys cycle in and out of that final bullpen spot all year. I’d give Kahnle a leg up on the revolving door spot because he is out of minor league options and was very good last year, and it’s worth seeing if he can do it again. That said, I’d give the spot to whoever looks best in Spring Training. Sheffield is the only one I’d hedge against because he’s the organization’s top prospect and his development is a priority, and I think he needs more Triple-A. Adams? Swanson? Tarpley? All revolving door candidates.

With Kahnle, keep in mind he’ll be on a non-guaranteed contract as an arbitration-eligible player. (All pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players are on non-guaranteed deals.) That means that, if Kahnle doesn’t look good in camp, the Yankees can release him and only owe him a fraction of his salary (either 30 days or 45 days termination pay depending on the date). That would save some luxury tax space. I’d much rather Kahnle be good and stick in the bullpen, but if things don’t work out, releasing him in March is an option.

3. So what’s the lineup? I do not intend for Tapia to be the everyday left fielder. I want him to play and play a lot — I didn’t trade for him not to play, after all — but Stanton will see time out there, as will Profar. Profar in left frees up second base time for Walker and possibly DH time for, well, everyone. Judge, Andujar, so on and so forth. Profar’s flexibility gives us some options. Don’t forget about Frazier either. He could force his way into the outfield picture.

Anyway, how’s this for the basic day-to-day lineup?

SS Gleyber Torres
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton
CF Aaron Hicks
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
1B Luke Voit
2B Jurickson Profar
LF Raimel Tapia

Too early to trust Gleyber in the leadoff spot? I don’t think so. Hicks is the most qualified leadoff hitter on the roster, but, if he bats leadoff, that means you’ve got five or six right-handed hitters in a row in the middle of the lineup. I don’t mind that. Aaron Boone does though, based on this season. As long as Judge, Stanton, and Hicks bat in the top four spots somewhere with Andujar and Sanchez not too far behind, the lineup works for me.

4. Andujar still at third base? Really? Yeah, really. I’m cool with giving the 23-year-old another year at the position. As poorly as he played defensively this year, Andujar was a rookie experiencing big league life for the first time. Now that he’s got his feet under him a bit and knows what to expect in his second season in MLB, hopefully he shows some improvement. Walker can still be Sabathia’s personal third baseman and we can continue to remove Andujar in the late innings with small leads. I’m sticking with him as my starting third baseman right now.

5. What happens when Gregorius returns? Worry about it when the time comes. Unless he loses a bunch of arm strength following surgery, he’s the shortstop when he comes back. I know that much. That could mean Gleyber to second and Profar into a supersub role, or Gleyber to third and Andujar to DH, or Gleyber to Triple-A because he’s struggling. Who knows? I’m not planning anything around Gregorius. Let him complete his rehab and get game ready. We’ll see where we’re at once he’s ready to return to the Yankees and rearrange things accordingly.

6. What did we accomplish, exactly? The goal each offseason is to strengthen the organization, both for the upcoming season in beyond. In the short-term, we’ve added a Gregorius replacement and rotation reinforcements. In the long-term, we’ve added a potential center fielder as well as five average-or-better players (Corbin, Profar, Richards, Robertson, Ryu) with control beyond 2019. The rotation is in better shape and both Profar and Tapia are two talented up-the-middle guys who are still in their mid-20s. Without really sacrificing anything off the MLB roster, I think we’ve done a nice job adding short and long-term impact to the organization.

The Waiting Game

November 4, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

Patience is a virtue. And by virtue of their patience, the Yankees have achieved owner Hal Steinbrenner’s luxury tax savings plan. This has saved the organization some money and it’s given the Yankees a chance to develop talent like Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres (even if that was just a finishing job), which has help set them up for future success without the absolute need to spend. Going into 2019, the Yankees could be successful without spending too much money.

There are some question marks on the Yankees and question marks sometimes demand answers from outside the organization. But the Yankees’ questions are largely internal: can Severino and Sanchez bounce back? Is Clint Frazier healthy?, for example. Additionally, the field of position players is pretty well stocked and crowded, especially with the re-signing of Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury still on the team. Adding a lot of talent may not be all that feasible. Besides, if the Yankees are patient, they can go for the best player on the market next year, Nolan Arenado. On the pitch side, waiting could also give them a shot at Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, and Zach Wheeler for sure, with the possibility of Stephen Strasburg (opt out).

The Yankees should absolutely, positively not wait to spend their money. As Bob pointed out last week:

We’ve heard a lot about the need to cut salary in recent years, and the team has achieved that goal. Now, the Yankees are a very good team that is on the verge of being a great team — and spending on elite talent in the next few weeks might be the difference. But if they let this moment pass them by, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they are sitting at home late in October again, watching their bitter rivals beating them at what was supposed to be their own game.

That aside, the Yankees would also be passing on two incredible talents in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado if they don’t attempt or sign both of them. These are two players you make room for. You find a way to make it work for guys that good.

On the pitching side of things, what do people always drone on about the Yankees needing? Starters. And what type of starters are favored in Yankee Stadium? Left handed ones. And whose available right now? Three lefty starters who would fit the team well, two of whom already have fit the team well: Patrick Corbin, JA Happ, and CC Sabathia. This combination of players will not exist for the Yankees to pursue again.

Hal and Brian Cashman are generally right: You don’t need a $200M payroll to win. The Yankees have proven that with their young talent the last two years. However, they’ve only been able to ride that talent so far. To push the team over the edge, they need to spend some money to strengthen the team even more. Patience may be a virtue and the Yankees ought to exercise it at times, but now is the time to avoid restraint. Go out and spend.

Thoughts after the Yankees re-sign Brett Gardner

November 1, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees handled their first piece of offseason business yesterday when they brought Brett Gardner back for 2019. Officially, they declined his $12.5M option and paid him a $2M buyout, then signed him to a new one-year deal worth $7.5M. Gardner takes home $9.5M but the luxury tax bill is only $7.5M next year. Here are some thoughts on Gardner’s return.

1. Gardner’s playing time should be reduced next season and I think the Yankees realize that. That’s why they re-signed him at a lower salary. If they thought he was still an everyday player, they would’ve picked up the $12.5M option and been done with it. (The $2M buyout means it was a $10.5M decision and that’s a good price for an everyday outfielder.) Heck, in Spring Training this year Aaron Boone said plan was to reduce Gardner’s workload, but that didn’t happen because Judge got hurt and Stanton had the hamstring problem in the second half. They needed Gardner to play. I think that, in a perfect world, Gardner would be a bottom of the order guy who gets 350-400 plate appearances against righties and also comes in for defense in the late innings. He needs the regular time off his feet — Gardner’s always played all out and that tends to take its toll once you get into your mid-30s — and he needs to be sheltered against lefties. That should be the plan, I think. Bottom of the lineup guy who faces righties. Nothing more.

2. In order to lower Gardner’s workload, the Yankees will have to play Giancarlo Stanton in the field more often next season. I was surprised at how little he played the field early in the season. I know he had the hamstring in the second half, but only 47 starts in the outfield in 94 games in the first half? It probably would’ve been fewer too had Aaron Hicks not missed two weeks with an intercostal strain in April. Stanton’s a good defender! He looked a little lost in left field at first, but was fine out there by the end of the season. He just needed a little time. I thought Judge would get more time at DH than he actually did in the first half. With Gardner needing to play less, more Stanton in left field is the way to make it happen. I didn’t like that Giancarlo was close to a full-time DH when his hamstring was healthy in the first half. Feels like a waste of his defense. I hope to see him out there a little more often. It means more DH time for everyone else and a little less wear and tear overall.

3. You can never say never when it comes to big market team and a star player in his mid-20s, but it sure seems like Gardner’s deal closes the door on a Bryce Harper signing. The Yankees have four big league outfielders (Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton) plus two unknowns (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier) and I don’t see where Harper fits. The Yankees didn’t re-sign Gardner only to trade him. That’s a video game move, not a real life move. (Gardner has five-and-ten no-trade protection anyway.) Judge isn’t going anywhere. Stanton’s not going anywhere either. Trade Hicks for a pitcher? Okay, maybe, but who plays center field? Surely not 35-year-old Gardner on an everyday basis. Harper or Judge out there doesn’t seem like a good idea either. Unless they exceed the luxury tax threshold next year, the Yankees don’t really have the payroll room for a monster signing anyway. If they do make a huge signing though, it seems to me it would be Manny Machado over Harper. The outfield is full and the infield has a great big opening with Didi Gregorius out. Machado makes more sense given the roster.

4. So what were the alternatives to Gardner? Harper is a special case, obviously. The best non-Harper free agent outfielders are Michael Brantley (probably a DH going forward), A.J. Pollock (hurt all the time), and Andrew McCutchen (I like him, but I don’t multi-year contract like him). Those three are better players than Gardner, unquestionably in my mind, but those dudes are all getting much larger contracts. The Yankees are working on a budget — we don’t know if it’s the $206M luxury tax threshold or something else, but there’s a budget — and it stands to reason most of it is going to pitching. Spending big on what amounts to a fourth outfielder ain’t the best use of resources, you know? Free agent outfielders in Gardner’s price range include … uh … Carlos Gonzalez? Adam Jones? Lonnie Chisenhall? Curtis Granderson? Granderson is forever cool with me and I would’ve been a-okay with him as a Gardner replacement. The other stopgaps options don’t excite me. On one hand, replacing Gardner would’ve been a piece of cake. There are always corner outfielders available. Sign Jon Jay or Denard Span, for example. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s a big difference between these guys in bottom line production, and there’s no transition here. The Yankees know what they’re getting and Gardner knows what he’s getting into. It’s a relatively cheap one-year contract. I have no problems with it as long as the plan is to reduce his workload.

5. I don’t think the signing tells us anything about Ellsbury’s and particularly Frazier’s status. Ellsbury’s dead weight at this point. I don’t think he’s a factor in the team’s decision-making at all. Nothing the Yankees can do about him. Frazier is a young player with upside though, and now Gardner is ostensibly blocking his path to playing time next year. I don’t buy that at all. First of all, we don’t even know if Frazier will be healthy come Spring Training. He’s recovering from the post-concussion migraines and the Yankees say he’ll be ready for camp, but you can never be too sure with these things. We need to see Clint healthy before we start worrying about where he plays, you know? And, once Frazier is healthy, I think the Yankees will find a way to get him in the lineup. If that means less playing time for Gardner, so be it. Right now Frazier has four veterans ahead of him on the outfield depth chart. These things always take care of themselves though. Always. Last year Clint getting hurt is how the outfield logjam was cleared up. Hopefully he gets healthy this winter, reports to camp as a full player without restrictions, and forces the Yankees to put him into the lineup.

6. Truth be told, Gardner might not have been brought back had Frazier stayed healthy and aced a big league audition this past season. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you the perfect world scenario for next season is Frazier coming to camp healthy, getting a few weeks worth of at-bats in Triple-A to get up to speed, then gradually taking playing time away from Gardner in the second half before taking over left field for good next year. That would be the ideal transition out of the Gardner era and into the Frazier era. Things never go that smoothly, of course, but that’s what I think the Yankees want to happen. Barring an unexpectedly massive season, I think next year will be Gardner’s last as a Yankee, and if Frazier is able to replace him, great. If not, the Yankees will find someone else.

2018 Offseason is Critical for Outlook of the Yankees

October 27, 2018 by Bobby Montano

The following is the first post from our newest writer, Bob Montano. You’ll see his work every Saturday morning here at RAB. You can follow Bob on Twitter at @mr_bobloblaw.

The Yankees face many significant questions as they prepare for what will be their most important offseason in recent memory. Not only are Bryce Harper and Manny Machado younger and more talented than any players to hit the market in recent years, but the Yankees have clear areas to improve the roster. The team will need to find solutions to new problems in the infield now that Didi Gregorius will miss considerable time and it will need to add starting pitching. But any strategy the Yankees have for the offseason is based on whether or not Hal Steinbrenner is willing to flex his financial muscles to augment one of the most talented cores in all of baseball.

Team brass has been open about their goals to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and they finally accomplished that goal in 2018 for the first time by shaving $50 million off of 2017’s payroll, bringing the payroll to a total of $192.5 million. This does more than just save the Steinbrenners money: it also resets the penalty for exceeding the threshold to the minimum 20 percent for each dollar over as opposed to the maximum 50 percent the team had been paying. In other words, should the team exceed the $207 million threshold in 2019 by $10 million, they’d pay a $2 million tax instead of $5 million. It goes without saying that these numbers are significant at the scale of MLB payrolls and it is not clear if the Yankees are willing to take the financial hit.

Hal has long said that teams do not need a $200 million payroll to win the World Series and that has technically proven to be true – but the reality is that the league has changed in recent years. Many MLB teams have been reticent to add salary, treating the luxury tax as a de facto salary cap, and many teams simply don’t appear interested in spending to win. This presents an opportunity for the Yankees that they should not squander.

Not only do the Yankees have a roster that is as well-positioned for success over the next five years as any in baseball, but they are an exceptionally wealthy franchise. If most other teams are unwilling to spend – and we’ll have to see if this offseason is a repeat of last year’s, but I don’t expect many surprises – then the Yankees simply have no excuse to waste their biggest competitive advantage.

The Red Sox are a perfect illustration of why this is the case. Boston had a frustrating 2017, with a regular season that felt underwhelming — despite the team’s success on paper — and a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the eventual champion Houston Astros. A big reason it felt like the team was underwhelming was its offense, so the Red Sox aggressively pursued J.D. Martinez. They eventually signed him to a five-year, $110 million contract and he hit .330 with a wRC+ of 170 in 2018 alongside Boston’s formidable young core. Thanks in large part to JD’s exceptional season and Mookie Betts’ even better one, the Red Sox are poised to win the World Series after a regular season campaign netted them 108 wins. (For what it is worth, they have the league’s largest payroll by a wide margin.)

Boston was not the only team to follow this strategy to considerable success. The Milwaukee Brewers finished at 86-76 in 2017 and clearly saw an opportunity to improve, signing Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80 million contract. The Brewers added $30 million in salary, and Cain hit .308 with a 124 wRC+ in 2018. Along with likely NL MVP Christian Yelich, Cain helped guide the Brewers to a 96 win season that ended in Game Seven of the NLCS. Much like the Red Sox, the Brewers aggressively added to their payroll and it paid dividends.

Mike estimates that the Yankees will have $50 million to spend after arbitration before surpassing the $206 million cap. That is a significant amount, but it will go fast – especially if the team pursues top talent like Bryce Harper, who is reportedly asking for a 10 year, $350 contract or Manny Machado, who will have similar demands. That is without the additional salary of a potential arm like Patrick Corbin or a lefty bat like Michael Brantley, let alone supporting depth pieces. It does not even consider the fact that key pieces like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino will get significant pay raises through arbitration over the next few years.

We’ve heard a lot about the need to cut salary in recent years, and the team has achieved that goal. Now, the Yankees are a very good team that is on the verge of being a great team — and spending on elite talent in the next few weeks might be the difference. But if they let this moment pass them by, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they are sitting at home late in October again, watching their bitter rivals beating them at what was supposed to be their own game.

Three things the two 2018 World Series teams should reaffirm for the Yankees

October 23, 2018 by Mike

Later tonight the Red Sox and Dodgers will open the 2018 World Series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are looking to win their fourth championship in the last 15 years. The Dodgers are trying to win their first World Series title in 30 years, since the iconic Kirk Gibson home run series. We’re all Dodgers fans this series, right? Right.

Anyway, this is the time of year when we start to see “this is what [team] should learn from the World Series teams” articles. I’ve done it myself. Multiple times. This is not one of those articles. What is there to learn from the Red Sox and Dodgers? Draft and develop well, be good at as many facets of the game as possible, and hope it all works out? Yeah. We knew that already.

The Yankees don’t need to learn anything from the Red Sox and Dodgers. Rather, there are a couple of things the Yankees already know that the Red Sox and Dodgers reinforce. Here, in no particular order, are three big picture ideas the Sawx and Dodgers reaffirm, just in case you or the Yanks have forgotten.

It’s okay to outspend everyone (by a lot)

Kinda weird I have to point this out when talking about the Yankees, but here we are. Between payroll and luxury tax, the Yankees paid $240M for their roster last season. This year that number was all the way down to $193M or so. The Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS last year and cut nearly $50M off their payroll. Good grief.

Let’s check in on 2018 Opening Day payrolls, shall we?

Red Sox: $228.4M
Giants: $205.6M
Dodgers: $199.6M

Would you look at that? Two of the top three teams in payroll are in the World Series. The third team stunk, but you know what? That third team won three World Series titles in a five-year span recently and spent like crazy to try to extend the championship window. They tried like hell to keep winning. There’s no extra credit for winning with a cheapest roster. Spend spend spend.

The Yankees set out to reset their luxury tax rate this year and they did exactly that. Will they increase payroll next year and exceed the luxury tax threshold? Brian Cashman didn’t make it seem like a given. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said the GM.

Luxury tax money goes to non-luxury tax paying teams. At least part of it does. It sucks having to pay bills, we all know that firsthand, so I totally get why the Yankees don’t want to continue footing a luxury tax bill. By doing that though, the Yankees are throwing away their market advantages. Playing in New York and having this organization’s history means sky high revenues. The Yankees have willingly leveled the playing field.

The Red Sox spent like crazy this year — I don’t want to hear any “they’re buying a championship!” nonsense, it’s hard for a Yankees fan to be more hypocritical than that — and the result was 108 wins and a trip to the postseason. The Dodgers, like the Yankees, worked to get under the luxury tax threshold this year. They went from 104 wins last year to 92 wins this year. They leveled the playing field and had to battle all season.

If there’s a lesson here, the lesson is that when a team has a very talented young core capable of doing something special, they absolutely should throw money at whatever roster holes exist in an effort to get over the hump. Could you get saddled with a bad contract along the way? Absolutely. You also might wind up in the World Series. Success can be fleeting and championship windows can closer sooner than you expect. Spend when you can.

Home runs are cool, long live home runs

The Red Sox clinched the AL pennant with a 4-1 win over the Astros in ALCS Game Five. The Dodgers clinched the NL pennant with a 5-1 win over the Brewers in NLDS Game Seven. All eleven runs in the two deciding games were scored on home runs. Every single one. Three solo homers (Christian Yelich, J.D. Martinez, Marwin Gonzalez), one two-run homer (Cody Bellinger), and two three-run homers (Rafael Devers, Yasiel Puig) equal eleven runs.

From 2016-18, there were 1.19 home runs per game during the regular season and 1.15 home runs per game in the postseason. The difference is one homer every 25 games. A negligible difference. Also:

2018 regular season: 40.3% runs on homers
2018 postseason: 40.2% runs on homers

As Joe Sheehan notes, the team with more home runs has won 17 of 21 games this postseason. Point is, home run production does not decrease in October. That’s a lazy and tired narrative that anyone watching this postseason should see is false. Hitting a home run is literally the best thing a hitter can do and that is true any time of year.

Fortunately, Cashman and the Yankees don’t seem eager to overhaul their record setting home run offense this winter. They’re not going to be pressured into shaking things up after a quick ALDS exit, or after last year’s offensive issues in Houston during the ALCS. “I’m good with our offense. I think we lost because we were ineffective, and that had to do with what was done to us,” said Cashman at his end-of-season press conference.

Are the Yankees too right-handed? Yeah, I think so, especially now that Didi Gregorius is going to miss an undetermined length of time next season. Another lefty bat and another high on-base guy in left field should be offseason priorities. Generally speaking though, a home run heavy offense is a (very) good thing. The Yankees shouldn’t overreact to the ALDS (and last year’s ALCS) and overhaul things. The ball still flies in October.

Don’t pass up elite talent

I didn’t love the idea of trading for Gerrit Cole last year. Not at the reported asking price. The Yankees wanted to build a deal around Clint Frazier and secondary prospects. The Pirates wanted Frazier and Miguel Andujar, and no. Just no. The Yankees stood their ground and Cole went to the Astros for a package that looked underwhelming at the time and looks even more underwhelming now.

What I didn’t appreciate enough at the time is how hard it is to acquire elite talent. And Cole, even with the step backwards he took in 2016 and 2017, is an elite talent. He was 27 years old at the time and he’s a former first overall pick with premium velocity, a swing-and-miss slider, and pretty good control. How often do players like that become available? How often do they actually change teams? Not often at all. These guys are hard to get.

Look at the two World Series teams. When the Dodgers needed a shortstop to replace the injured Corey Seager, they went out and got Manny Machado. When the Red Sox needed another starter a few years ago, they traded for Chris Sale. When they needed a power bat last winter, they signed J.D. Martinez. There were no corners cut. There approach was “we’re a great team and we’re getting the best players available to address our needs.”

This isn’t to say I think the Yankees should’ve caved and given up Frazier and Andujar for Cole. Andujar is my dude. Can’t really blame the Yankees because the Pirates said no and wound up making a bad trade. My point is elite talent is difficult to acquire and whenever it becomes available, the Yankees should get involved in the bidding. They did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton! This offseason Machado and Bryce Harper are available for nothing but cash, and yeah.

This sorta circles back to the first point. The Yankees stuck to a self-imposed payroll limit this year, and if they do it again next year and miss out on a prime-aged superstar like Machado or Harper, it’s going to look terrible. Squint your eyes and you can find baseball reasons to pass on Machado (two knee surgeries) and Harper (various injuries), and if the Yankees put on the full course press and they sign elsewhere anyway, so be it. But they have to try. Role players are important, but you win with stars.

Reviewing RAB’s five bold predictions for the 2018 season

October 22, 2018 by Mike

About two weeks ago the 2018 season came to an end for the Yankees, about four weeks too early. The Yankees were bounced in four games in the ALDS and the season feels like a disappointment. At least to me it does. Last year the Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS, and although they lost, it was still fun as hell. That was not really the case year.

Anyway, now that the season is over, it is time to go back and review my five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees. Spoiler alert: I went 0-for-5. Last year I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I tried to rectify that this year and I guess it worked? Perhaps I’ll actually get one right next year. Time to review this year’s five bold predictions to see where I went wrong.

1. Hicks will lead the Yankees in WAR.

Among this year’s bold predictions, this is the one that was closest to coming true. For all the wrong reasons, of course. Aaron Hicks had a tremendous 2018 season but the only reasons he came close to leading the Yankees in WAR are Aaron Judge’s wrist injury and Luis Severino’s second half fade. An errant pitch broke Judge’s wrist in late-July and kept him out to mid-September. Severino was pretty bad after the All-Star break. That allowed Hicks to draw close.

I tend to stick with the two most popular version of WAR but there is a third out there. Here’s the top five Yankees in each version:

FanGraphs WAR
1. Aaron Judge: +5.5
2. Luis Severino: +4.8
3. Aaron Hicks: +4.7
4. Didi Gregorius: +4.2
5. Giancarlo Stanton: +4.0

Baseball Prospectus WARP
1. Luis Severino: +5.6
2. Aaron Judge: +4.7
3. Didi Gregorius: +4.2
4. Gleyber Torres: +3.2
5. Aaron Hicks: +2.9

Baseball Reference WAR
1. Luis Severino: +5.7
2. Aaron Judge: +5.0
3. Aaron Hicks: +4.9
4. Didi Gregorius: +4.6
5. Giancarlo Stanton: +4.2

I am not a big fan of BP WARP but I figured I’d throw it in there anyway. Hicks being the third best player on the Yankees — and second best position player — this past season matches the eye test, I believe. He hit .248/.366/.467 (127 wRC+) with 27 homers, eleven steals, an excellent walk rate (15.5%), and a better than average strikeout rate (19.1%). Add in quality center field defense and you’ve got a +5 WAR player.

Unfortunately for me and my bold prediction (but fortunately for the Yankees and Yankees fans), Judge is a true talent +7 WAR player, so he still finished ahead of Hicks even with all that missed time. Severino finished ahead of Hicks as well thanks largely to his dominant first year. Great year for Hicks. Not great enough to lead the Yankees in WAR. (That’s a good thing!)

2. The Yankees will be the first team ever with four 40+ home run hitters.

Nope. The Yankees instead became the umpteenth team in history with zero 40+ home runs hitters. Stanton led the Yankees with 38 home runs. Gregorius, Hicks, Judge, and Miguel Andujar tied for second with 27 homers apiece. The Yankees did set a new single-season record with 267 homers this season. They did it without that one guy having a monster season though.

I specifically mentioned Judge, Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird as the 40-homer hitters in the bold predictions post. Here’s what happened:

Bird: Hurt (again) and awful. He played in 82 games and hit only eleven homers.
Judge: Probably would’ve hit 40 homers if not for the wrist injury. Twenty-seven homers in 112 games is a 39-homer pace, and remember, he stunk when he first returned from the disabled list.
Sanchez: Missed two months with groin injuries and, even when healthy, he wasn’t good.
Stanton: Hit 38 homers. Just short of 40. He was really good this year.

The Judge and Sanchez injuries were unfortunate. It happens. There are two big reasons this bold prediction was derailed. One, Sanchez was just terrible. Who saw that coming? My dude missed most of April and still hit .278/.345/.531 (129 wRC+) with 33 homers last year. Rather than build on that, Gary took a massive step back. And two, I foolishly believed this would be the year Bird stayed healthy. Never again.

3. The Yankees will have four starters each make 30+ starts.

Nope. The Yankees had one starter make 30 starts this season (Severino made 32). CC Sabathia made 29 starts and would’ve made 30+ had he not missed two weeks with a hip issue in April or eleven days with knee trouble in August. Masahiro Tanaka made only 27 starts because he managed to strain both hamstrings at the same time while running the bases in June. Good grief. That sent him to the sidelines for a month.

Only one other Yankee made as many as 23 starts this season. That Yankee: Sonny Gray. Gray made 23 starts and had to be pulled from the rotation because he was so awful. I didn’t expect that to happen. Opening Day fifth starter Jordan Montgomery made only six starts before his elbow gave out and he needed Tommy John surgery. Know who finished fifth on the 2018 Yankees in starts? Domingo German with 14. Yeesh.

4. Cessa emerges as the next great Yankees reliever.

I called this with Chad Green last year and it worked beautifully. I tried it again this year with the other half of the Justin Wilson trade and it didn’t work out so well. I guess Jonathan Holder was this year’s breakout reliever? Yeah, has to be. Anyway, here was my logic behind the Cessa prediction:

There are three reasons I believe Cessa can succeed as a short reliever. One, he has plenty of velocity. Last season he averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 99.5 mph with the fastball, even as a starter. Two, his slider misses plenty of bats. It’s true. Last year he threw his slider a touch more than 30% of the time and:

Swing-and-miss rate: 21.4% (MLB average for sliders: 16.9%)

Whiffs-per-swing rate: 43.2% (MLB average for sliders: 35.2%)

Cessa also throws a curveball and a changeup, but with a move into short relief, he can forget about those pitches and work exclusively with an upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. That’s similar to what Green did, right? He moved to the bullpen, shelved his subpar secondary pitches, and leaned on his best offering, which happens to be his fastball. Cessa with something like a 55/45 fastball/slider split could be real good.

Cessa never really got a look as short reliever this year. He made two one-inning relief appearances in April, during which he struck out three of the six batters he faced, otherwise he was used as a spot starter and swingman. Cessa made five spot starts and nine relief appearances of at least two innings. The Yankees never bothered to give him a look as a one-inning “air it out reliever” aside from those two appearances in April.

In 44.2 total innings this past season Cessa finished with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) and good enough strikeout (20.0%) and walk (6.7%) rates. The fastball velocity was still good (95.0 mph average and 97.9 mph max) and the slider still missed bats (18.6% swings-and-misses and 38.3% whiffs-per-swing). Shrug. Cessa will be out of minor league options next year, and if he doesn’t stick with the Yankees, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns into a nice one-inning reliever elsewhere. The tools are there. He seems miscast as a starter but the Yankees have stuck with him in that role.

5. Medina finishes the season as a top 50 prospect.

This was my most “out there” bold prediction. It’s not often a 19-year-old pitcher jumps into the top half of a global top 100 list. Medina has dynamite stuff. He’s upper-90s with his fastball and he’s hit triple digits several times, his curveball is a hammer, and his changeup is sneaky good as well. I didn’t pick him out of the hat. Medina has the stuff to develop into a top 50 prospect. I aggressively said it would happen this year. I was wrong.

In 36 innings for the rookie level Pulaski Yankees, Medina pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That’s 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Among the 3,014 pitchers to throw at least 30 innings in the minors this season, Medina had the sixth highest walk rate and 83rd lowest K-BB%. Medina also hit two batters and uncorked 12 wild pitches in those 36 innings. Yikes.

Even with that statistically terrible season Medina remains a very good prospect because he is only 19 and because you can’t teach his stuff. It’s electric. Baseball America (subs. req’d) recently ranked Medina as the 13th best prospect in the Appalachian League. A snippet of their scouting report:

What keeps scouts interested with Medina is a fastball that sits in the 95-96 mph range and touches 100, with impressive plane and sink. He’s also got a 60-grade curveball and a changeup that could become a third plus pitch as well. He’s still growing into a 6-foot-1, 175 pound frame, Medina has a good arm action but simply struggles to repeat his delivery with any kind of consistency and is just an average athlete.

This failed bold prediction is nothing more than a bet on a talented yet unpolished 19-year-old pitching prospect gone wrong. It happens. Medina definitely has a little Dellin Betances in him and by that I mean 19-year-old Dellin Betances. Betances was a starter with drool-worthy stuff at the same age and it wasn’t until his age 26 season that he figured it out for good and stuck in the big leagues. Medina is a similar long-term project. He may one day be a top 50 prospect, but it won’t be today.

A CC Solution

October 21, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

For the second time in as many years, CC Sabathia is about to be a free agent. For the second time in as many years, I expect the Yankees will sign him to be part of the back end of their rotation by about mid-December. And despite what CC himself said on the most recent episode of R2C2 about this being the first time he’s nervous about returning to the Yankees, I think he expects to be back with the Bombers, too. I’m not the only one to say this, but at this point, CC has earned the Andy Pettitte treatment–one year deals till he’s done (which will be after 2019, per that same R2C2 episode).

You could probably do worse for a fifth starter than a borderline Hall of Famer who just threw 153 innings, whose ERA didn’t pass anything higher than 3.80 after his second start. Add on the fact that he’s incredibly respected in the clubhouse and helps set the tone for the team and this really does seem like a no brainer. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns.

Though he seems to have gotten used to it–Pettitte-esque, really–CC is still pitching with diminished stuff and on a bad knee. He’s certainly managed well the last two seasons, but how long can that really be counted on? He’s an older pitcher and despite how good he says his arm itself feels, the ball and his knee may not agree.

There’s also the matter of the length CC can provide. From the ASB on, he completed six innings just four times. Granted, he was cruising in his last start before getting ejected while defending Austin Romine and likely would’ve gone seven to secure his $500,000 bonus. While we shouldn’t take any absolute positions in baseball, it’s likely time to start planning for CC’s starts as a sort of special event.

I highly doubt that CC wants–or that the Yankees would approach him about doing–an opener type scenario, but there is something to be said for it with him. Perhaps having a hard thrower get through the first six batters or so before bringing in CC for a change of pace would be good for him and set him up for success in a ‘bulk’ role, throwing 3-5 innings after the opener. Alternatively, which I think would be more amenable to CC, he could be a (mostly) strictly two times through the lineup kind of guy. Ideally, that’s 18 outs, though more likely to be 15-16, depending on pitch count, hits, runs, etc.

At most, I think we should expect CC to be a five-and-fly type pitcher, especially given how good the Yankees have been and are at building a good bullpen. The trick is that if the Yankees are going to use this tactic, their other starters must be able to go deep into games, too. Failing that, they’ll need at least two relievers who can go multiple innings. Given the time they have to plan for this strategy, they should be able to do this.

While this would be a very different role for Sabathia than he’s been used to, it’s something that could maximize his value in his final year and help the Yankees win; that’s what both parties want, right?