We are now four weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training. Grapefruit League games are less than six weeks away. Hooray for that. Baseball is coming. Sooner than you think. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts on this Wednesday.

1. The Yankees are very talented and they’re going to win a lot of games in the coming years. I just can’t shake the feeling they are missing out on an opportunity to become THE TEAM this offseason. They’ve opted to spread the money around and acquire several good players rather than one or two great players. You can argue that is the smart way to go — the 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way — but I also feel the Yankees were uniquely positioned to capitalize on this free agent class. The homegrown core is excellent and cheap, and when you’re in the game’s biggest market, that’s when you use your financial might to acquire stars. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are both 26 years old. They’re younger than Aaron Judge! They fit into the young core nicely and make the Yankees much better. The Yankees were all set up for a blockbuster offseason. The core is cheap and the luxury tax rate has been reset. I’m not sure what more they needed to do. The Yankees have had a good offseason. James Paxton and DJ LeMahieu are strong additions and having J.A. Happ and Zach Britton for a full season will help. Assuming the Yankees do not sign Machado or Harper — both remain unsigned, so a signing is still possible — this winter feels like a giant missed opportunity. The Yankees might not ever be better set up to spend on transcendent talent than they were coming into this offseason, and it hasn’t happened. Shrug.

2. This has no real on-field value, but you know what? The Yankees signing Machado would be just tremendous for the rivalry with the Red Sox and a great thing for baseball overall. It’s been a long time since the Yankees and Red Sox were this good at the same time. You have to go back to what, 2007? The rivalry went stale for a while there. Now it has some meaning again. Adding Machado to it? Gosh, that would be fun. Baseball needs a villain and, like it or not, the Yankees are that villain. It’s just the way it is. They’re the best and most successful team in the sport’s history and everyone is sick of hearing about them. Remember when the baseball world seemed to embrace the lovable underdog 2017 Yankees? That was fun. It’s never happening again. Not anytime soon, anyway. The 2017 Yankees caught everyone off-guard and now they’re all right back to hating them again. Embrace it. Adding Machado not only makes the Yankees better on the field, but it adds some spark to the rivalry with the Red Sox, and it further gives baseball fans around the world that common enemy. If you’re reading this, chances are you love the Yankees. Pretty much everyone else hates them though. Hey, it’s good for business. Machado — and even Harper to some degree — would give everyone even more of a reason to hate the Yankees. Would be great for ratings and attendance and social media, and baseball overall.

3. I’ve seen lots of folks, both fans and people in media, say the Yankees need to watch their spending now because at some point they have to sign all their homegrown stars, namely Judge, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar. It’s true, the Yankees will have to pay those guys at some point. The idea they can’t spend now because they have to pay them later is silly though. First of all, who says they’ll be worth paying down the road? I love all those guys and I hope they do well. This is baseball though, and sometimes things don’t work out as expected. Secondly, if paying those guys is so important, why aren’t the Yankees signing them to extensions now? The earlier you sign them, the more you save. Seems like a smart idea. The Yankees have been extension adverse for several years now though. Third, guys like LeMahieu, Britton, Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jacoby Ellsbury will all be off the books before those young players start making serious money in a few years. A lot of payroll space will open up between now and then. And fourth, the Yankees can afford to pay those guys and others! I know this because once upon a time they had to pay Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Jorge Posada. They did that and still had money left over for Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, and others. Crazy, I know. The “don’t spend now because you might have to spend later” logic floating around is highly flawed. Highly flawed and also didn’t we do this already the last few years? Don’t spend money this offseason because Machado and Harper will be free agents in a few years? Yeah, that really worked out. Point is, don’t worry about having to pay the young guys yet. They Yankees have the financial wherewithal to make it happen. Let the Yankees win one title with this core before we worry how they’ll lock everyone up and win more championships together.

4. One last Machado/Harper thought, I promise. You know we’re going to spend the next few years (maybe even the rest of our lives!) second-guessing this offseason, right? I am certain I will take part in it, I can’t resist, but it is going to capital-S Suck. The Yankees probably won’t win the World Series in 2019. That’s because it is hard to win the World Series and only one team overcomes the longs odds to do it each year. Don’t get mad at me. That’s just reality. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series, we’re never going to hear the end of “they should’ve signed Machado or Harper!” next winter, and however many winters there are between now and the next parade. I’ll probably take part in the second-guessing so I apologize in advance. (In my defense, I am first-guessing the hell out of it.) Heck, even if the Yankees do win the World Series this year, there will still probably be some complaints about not signing Machado or Harper because those two would give them better chances of repeating in 2020. The only good outcome here is the Yankees winning the World Series and Machado and Harper both having poor years. That is the only scenario in which there will be no second-guessing among fans and the media and whoever else. I know it’s coming and I dread it because it is inescapable. Some things can be easily ignored. This will not be one of them.

5. The Yankees signed Didi Gregorius to a one-year contract worth $11.75M prior to the arbitration salary filing deadline last week. That is a touch below his $12.4M projected salary. A few weeks ago I said the most likely outcome was a one-year deal at the projected salary or thereabouts, and that’s exactly what happened. Go me. Anyway, the question now is what’s next? Brian Cashman says the Yankees want to sign Gregorius long-term. Does that mean they’ll try to hammer out an extension as quickly as possible? Or do the Yankees want to wait until Sir Didi returns from Tommy John surgery so they know exactly what they’re getting into? I wouldn’t blame them one bit for waiting. That said, working out an extension now might be their only way to get some sort of injury-related discount. It is possible to sign Gregorius now without changing his luxury tax number for the coming season. I explained it last year. As long as the extension doesn’t kick in until next year, Gregorius will still count as $11.75M against the luxury tax this year. There’s a way to build in short-term luxury tax relief. I’m more interested in the process behind signing Didi than the luxury tax terms. I’m sick of talking about the luxury tax. Will the Yankees sign him now or nah? That’s all I’m curious to know. Now that Gregorius has his $11.75M salary for the coming season locked in, I think he might be more willing to wait out his rehab and show he’s healthy before agreeing to a new deal. Even with free agency being what it is nowadays, he should do pretty well on the open market next winter. Now that he has more security, Didi can be patient. The Yankees probably missed their best chance to get him signed long-term to a below-market rate due to the injury.

6. The Kyler Murray situation is pretty fascinating. The short version: The A’s selected Murray ninth overall in last year’s draft and gave him a $4.66M signing bonus after he said he would play baseball full-time. Then he went back to Oklahoma this past fall, broke out as a football prospect and won the Heisman Trophy, and now he’s trying to leverage a potential NFL career into a larger MLB contract. Good for him. The Athletics and MLB sent people to talk to Murray this past weekend and apparently Oakland was given the okay to offer him a Major League contract, meaning he gets more money and goes on the 40-man roster. Teams can not give draftees Major League contracts anymore, and there are rules forbidding teams from promising draftees another contract down the road. In Murray’s case, MLB believes the A’s did not promise him anything following the draft last summer. He said he would play baseball, then he raised his football stock and the NFL became a legitimate option. Since MLB is allowing this, other draftees could try it I suppose, but how many MLB draft picks have a chance to go in the first round of the NFL draft like Murray? Pretty much none. Murray is a big time outlier. Hopefully this is a wake up call for MLB and they allow teams to increase their draft spending to ensure the best athletes play baseball. MLB shouldn’t lose talent to other sports. I’m sure MLB won’t change a damn thing because owners are doing everything they can to reduce spending, but hopefully something happens. Also, if I were Murray, I’d totally go to the NFL unless the A’s pony up a nice contract (the Scott Kingery extension maybe?). The final pick in the first round of last year’s NFL draft walked away with $9.47M. Murray has to repay the A’s part of the $4.66M bonus should he choose the NFL, but, as long as he’s drafted before the middle of the second round — most NFL mock drafts have him as a late first rounder right now — he’ll break even. Then, in three years, he can negotiate a new contract with his NFL team. From what I understand, even crummy quarterbacks get paid well after three years as long as they’re young. Hopefully Murray and the A’s can work out a deal and he can remain in baseball. Financially, the NFL makes much more sense in the short-term. That first big MLB payday is so far away between the minors and pre-arbitration years.

7. One of the best things the MLBPA can do between now and the next round of Collective Bargaining Agreement talks is get fans on their side. They have three seasons and two offseasons to do it and it will be close to impossible. Generally speaking, fans have no sympathy for the millionaire ballplayers who are making fewer millions than they did a couple of years ago. I totally get it. I also think there’s a chance for the MLBPA to get fans on their side in the coming years. Maybe I’m naive. I don’t think this would ever happen, but imagine a world where Clayton Kershaw rips the Dodgers publicly for cutting payroll. “We lost back-to-back World Series and we play in Los Angeles, why are we worried about the luxury tax?” Think that would energize fans? Now imagine Judge or CC Sabathia doing something similar. Or Kris Bryant. What if Felix Hernandez were to say the Mariners should be embarrassed for wasting his prime and starting another rebuild? Dallas Keuchel said he was disappointed the Astros didn’t get anyone at the 2017 trade deadline, and, last week, Jake Arrieta warned young players that they’re next in line to get screwed over by ownership. Maybe players speaking out against the front office and ownership isn’t as far-fetched as it seems. I sure do think it would help endear the players to fans. I think there’s a lot of frustration in baseball right now. The players are definitely angry their salaries are being cut. There are also a lot of fans upset their teams are not signing players or, in some cases, aren’t even trying to be competitive. More than one-third of the league is tanking or rebuilding or whatever you want to call it. Casual fans don’t care about rebuilds or five-year plans. They want a competitive baseball team. Instead, there are more meaningless games now than maybe ever before. Big name players calling out the front office and ownership for not doing more to field a competitive team — and calling out MLB for allowing it as well — could equal more fan support for the MLBPA going into the next round of CBA talks. Maybe that fan support means nothing and has no tangible impact. Or maybe it changes everything because MLB realizes winning back fans won’t be easy after years of at best ignoring and at worst endorsing teams not making an effort to be competitive. I’d like to think MLB will be held accountable at some point for turning a blind eye to owners turning their teams into get rich quick schemes with no regard for competitive integrity. The MLBPA is the only entity with the power to do that. Any support fans give them will be a plus, but the players will have to earn it.

In exactly five weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin the new season. Doesn’t seem so far away, does it? The Yankees may be done with their offseason shopping. It’s possible. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and several quality relievers are still sitting in free agency, sure, but it is entirely possible the 2019 Yankees are already in place. We’ll see. Here are some scattered thoughts.

1. The Yankees signed Troy Tulowitzki — and 15 other teams tried to sign Tulowitzki, reportedly — because he represents the one thing teams love more than anything: Something for nothing. Machado is in his own little world, but why spend money on Jed Lowrie or DJ LeMahieu when you could give Tulowitzki the league minimum and still claim to be trying to win? He is the perfect addition for the austerity era Yankees. He’s dirt cheap, he has name value, and he’s an excuse to pass on more expensive players. It’s not fair to single out the Yankees here because this applies to every team. If the report is true and 15 teams in addition to the Yankees pursued Tulowitzki, it means more teams were in on him than are reportedly in on Machado and Harper combined. Teams love something for nothing. They’d rather pay nothing for potential production than pay a lot for guaranteed production. Baseball is beyond screwed up when more teams are pursuing late career Tulowitzki than peak Machado and Harper. The Yankees should not let Tulowitzki stand in the way of other infield additions, even someone like Freddy Galvis or Josh Harrison, but it seems they will. They’ve made it pretty clear they view him as their starting shortstop and I don’t think Tulowitzki would’ve picked the Yankees without some promise of playing time. The Yankees won the “something for nothing” lottery with Tulowitzki. Now the question is will he give them something, or nothing?

2. On that note, the Yankees seem very well set up to wait out the free agent market and score a bargain in February or even March. Tulowitzki addresses the infield and Zach Britton gives them added bullpen depth. There is less urgency to get things done now, so the Yankees can remain patient, and see who’s still available in a few weeks. Perhaps someone like Cody Allen, Adam Warren, or Justin Wilson will still be sitting out there on the eve of Spring Training. I doubt it — relievers are pretty much the only free agents getting signed these days — but hey, you never know, and the Yankees are in position to wait and find out. They don’t absolutely need another infielder and they don’t absolutely need another reliever. I mean, they should go get another good reliever, but it’s less of a priority now than it was before the Britton deal. Remember, the Yankees opened Spring Training last year with Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar penciled in at second and third bases. The Brandon Drury trade happened a few days into camp and the Neil Walker signing happened in March. Drury and Walker didn’t really work out as hoped, but the strategy was sound. The Yankees waited out the market — they were connected to Drury as far back as the Winter Meetings, remember — and some things fell into their laps. The players did not work out. The strategy did. It would not surprise me at all to see them do it again, especially with the second bullpen piece they’re said to be seeking.

3. I don’t know how many times I’ve said this over the last two years but gosh, it sure would be cool if Greg Bird had a big season this year. Stay healthy and rake, that sorta thing. Luke Voit is cool and I am genuinely curious to see what he could do with an extended opportunity. Maybe he really is the next Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar. Who knows? I think Bird has the higher long-term upside (and lower probability) though, and, frankly, it would be nice to find one more left-handed batter for the lineup. With Tulowitzki set to play shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns, the only lefties in the lineup will be Brett Gardner and switch-hitting Aaron Hicks, and Gardner’s not really an offensive threat. Give me a good righty bat in an imbalanced lineup over an okay lefty bat in a balanced lineup. I’m just saying that, all things being equal, I’d like another lefty bat in the lineup this year. Bird is the obvious (only) in-house candidate to fill that left-handed void. He has to stay healthy and actually hit though, and, as I’ve been saying the last few weeks, the Yankees should send Bird to Triple-A until he shows he’s a threat at the plate and no longer swinging through 90 mph middle-middle fastballs. Can’t guarantee him anything. Not after the last two seasons. Bird has to earn his big league lineup spot and I hope he does, because he’d complement the offense nicely.

4. Yet another bad contract for bad contract proposal featuring Jacoby Ellsbury: Ellsbury, $15M, and a prospect for Yasmany Tomas. From 2015-17, Tomas put up a .268/.307/.462 (98 wRC+) batting line and -0.4 WAR in 305 games and 1,169 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks. Last season they buried him in the minors and he hit .262/.280/.465 (86 wRC+) with 14 homers in 371 Triple-A plate appearances, and, earlier this offseason, Tomas did not exercise the opt-out clause in his contract. I mean, duh. Why would he? He’s owed $15.5M in 2019 and $17M in 2020, so it’s $32.5M total the next two years. Now, here’s the key: Arizona outrighted Tomas off their 40-man roster last April. Because he’s not on the 40-man roster, his contract does not count toward the luxury tax payroll at all. (Ellsbury has too much service time to be outrighted.) That doesn’t matter to the D’Backs because they’re nowhere near the $206M luxury tax threshold. It would matter a lot to the Yankees though. Ellsbury is owed $47.5M the next two years, so sending Ellsbury and $15M to Arizona — the $15M is to cover the difference in salaries — frees up $14.4M in luxury tax payroll space in 2019 and again in 2020. The trade is cash neutral. The D’Backs take on no additional salary and the Yankees don’t save any actual cash. They do save luxury tax space though and that’s the goal. Clear luxury tax payroll space. What happens with Tomas? Who cares. Send him to Triple-A Scranton or release him. It doesn’t matter. For the D’Backs, they get to replace a player they do not believe can help them — the outright is a pretty good indication they’ve given up on Tomas at the MLB level — with a player who might be able to help them at no added salary, plus they get a prospect. I wouldn’t give them a top prospect like Estevan Florial or Jonathan Loaisiga to make this work, but one of those lower level arms the Yankees have stashed away? Sure. Also, Ellsbury lives in Arizona, so he might waive his no-trade clause to go to the D’Backs. Bottom line is, even if Ellsbury doesn’t work out for the D’Backs, they still get a prospect out of it, which is more than they’d get for Tomas on his own. Ultimately, this is a pointless exercise because the Yankees aren’t trading Ellsbury. At least not until they recoup every dollar possible through insurance while he’s recovering from hip surgery, so maybe file this away for the trade deadline or whenever he gets healthy.

5. Random free agent worth a blurb: Nate Karns. Two reasons for this. One, he has had success in the AL East. Karns threw 147 innings with a 3.67 ERA (4.09 FIP) for the Rays in 2015. Injuries have slowed him since, including Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last season, but Karns turned only 31 in November, so he’s not so old that expecting a bounceback with good health is unreasonable. And two, he has an option remaining. At least I believe he does. According to his MLB.com page, Karns was added to the 40-man roster in November 2012, and he was optioned down in 2013 and 2014, and that’s it. He should still have an option remaining, and, since he has less than five full years of service time (four years and 33 days), he can’t refuse a demotion to Triple-A. So Karns is the rare free agent who can be optioned to the minors. A worthwhile depth pickup? Yes, as long as he’s healthy and you think he can regain something close to his 2015 form. Luis Cessa is out of options and Steamer projects him for 4.51 ERA (4.57 FIP) in 2019. Karns apparently has an option and Steamer projects him for a 4.31 ERA (4.21 FIP). The downside here is Karns has to want to come to the Yankees. Yankee Stadium is not a good place for a pitcher to rebuild value, and he’s no idiot, he can look at the depth chart and see he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A. Other clubs figure to offer him an easier path to MLB playing time. This is just a thought. Swapping out Cessa for Karns would be a worthwhile move to upgrade the margins of the roster, as long as Karns is healthy.

6. I’ve seen a lot of chatter recently about setting transaction deadlines in the offseason. A trade deadline and/or a free agent deadline, I guess at some point in mid-December, then reopening the markets in Spring Training. I could not be more against offseason deadlines. For starters, baseball has become a 24/7/365 sport. It is in the news all the time and it should be in the news all the time. Cut off transactions at some arbitrary offseason date and you’re giving fans a reason to forget about baseball in the following weeks because they know nothing will happen. That’s bad for the sport. Secondly, offseason deadlines won’t help the players any. I think that’s especially true for a free agent signing deadline. With a free agent deadline, teams will just continue to wait and wait, and push players to the deadline. If they sign, great. If not, oh well. There is mounting evidence teams don’t prioritize winning. Thanks to the second Wild Card spot, never before in baseball history has it been as easy to qualify for the postseason as it is right now, yet roughly one-third of the league will go into this new season with no real intention of being competitive. Teams will use the deadline to squeeze players into team friendly contracts, and, if they don’t get them, they’ll walk away. If anything, the deadline will push free agents to sign even team friendlier contracts because they know they’d have to wait until Spring Training to sign otherwise. I appreciate folks trying to come up with ways to spur the market. I just don’t think this is it. Offseason transaction deadlines would give teams another mechanism to use against players but not vice versa.

7. With each passing week it feels the likelihood of a work stoppage (a players’ strike, specifically) increases. I wouldn’t call a work stoppage inevitable but things are moving in that direction. Free agency is the same as it was last year — I’d argue it’s worse than last year because two 26-year-old mega-talents like Harper and Machado aren’t getting blown away with offers — which means players aren’t getting paid as well and more revenue is being funneled to the owners. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in December 2021 so we have three seasons and two offseasons to go before a potential work stoppage. A lot can change between now and then. I hope things improve between now and then because gosh, a strike would be awful. And, if there is a work stoppage, I wonder what role the television networks will play. MLB and the 30 teams make so much of their money nowadays through television deals, both local and national. Never before has league revenue been less driven by attendance, which is part of the problem. Bad attendance doesn’t hurt the bottom line as much. Who cares about attendance when those television contracts are locked in at guaranteed dollars for the next 15 or 20 or 25 years? Easy for an owner to sit through a multi-year rebuild when he knows he’s getting paid no matter what. What happens if there’s a strike though? Do the networks push MLB to get a deal done because they don’t want to pay them all that money to broadcast zero games? Or do the broadcast deals stop paying out because there are no games to televise? That sure would push the owners to get a deal done. I have no idea what’ll happen but it could be the MLBPA will have allies in the networks. They are a major revenue stream for the league and I don’t believe they would be silent during the CBA negotiating process.

In the course of our lives, there are many pills we’ll need to swallow. Some are easy, some are hard, and some have to do with baseball. It might be time for the Yankees to swallow a pill I (mildly, tepidly) prescribed last month: the Yankees should keep Sonny Gray.

Given what GM Brian Cashman said about Gray after the end of the season, there will certainly need to be some fence-mending between the two. But if all that really matters is baseball and winning baseball games, it likely best serves the Bombers to keep the embattled righty. In fact, it’s easy to argue that Cashman’s comments have affected the market for Gray.

There have been fairly steady reports of interest in Gray for a while, but there doesn’t seem to be any fire paired with this apparent smoke. Maybe teams are still waiting for the big dominoes to fall, but the teams connected to Gray are not likely in on the Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Additionally, if the Yankees wanted so badly to move on from Gray, it’s doubtful that their pursuit of Machado would delay jettisoning Gray (unless their plan is to trade Miguel Andujar for a starter after signing Machado, which doesn’t seem likely right now).

Cashman, though, like all GMs, isn’t going to take a trade at a price he doesn’t want, so we could say he’s just being patient and waiting until he gets the package he thinks he deserves for Gray. But in retrospect, maybe trashing Gray publicly at season’s end was a bad idea for building his trade value. That might make it easier to get lowballed. After all, if Cashman values him so lowly, why should teams pretend to do the opposite and, thus, offer a stronger package to the Yankees? Given this odd market for Gray, he may be worth more to the Yankees on their roster than he would as a trade chip.

While the Yankee starters are certainly talented, each one comes with a degree of a question mark. CC Sabathia just had heart surgery, has a bad knee, and is old. James Paxton has been oft-injured. Masahiro Tanaka has missed his fair share of time while in the Majors. Luis Severino may have suffered from fatigue last year, which could be a precursor to injury (I’m not really worried about Severino). J.A. Happ is plain old.

Without Gray, the depth behind those five consists of Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, Mike King (not on the 40 man), Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, and a rehabbing Jordan Montgomery. While there’s plenty of upside in there, I still trust Gray more than I do these pitchers, even Montgomery, especially for a prolonged stretch.

This isn’t where we expected to be with Gray back in October, but here we are. Despite all the bumps and bruises and perhaps because of the accidental suppression of his trade value, it is best for the Yankees to keep, rather than trade, Sonny Gray.