Musings Archives - Page 3 of 120

Thoughts in the middle of the West Coast trip

September 6, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees are three games into the six-game West Coast swing and the best thing you can say right now is at least they didn’t get swept in Oakland. Good win Tuesday. Great win, really. Let’s not talk about the rest of the series. Onward and upward. Here are some thoughts.

1. My days as a daily lineup complainer are mostly over, but man, I just can’t get on board with Gleyber Torres hitting ninth. I am well aware of the whole “second leadoff hitter” concept and I am generally on board with it. Torres is way too good to use him in that role though. He’s hitting .277/.349/.501 (128 wRC+) overall this season and is 24-for-66 (.364) with four homers, eleven walks, and only 16 strikeouts in the last 19 games. Even as a 21-year-old rookie, that level of production warrants a much higher lineup spot. Not fewer at-bats than literally every other player in the lineup. Think about Tuesday night. Brett Gardner, the leadoff hitter in the lineup and the inning, started a seventh inning rally in which the Yankees loaded the bases with no outs, scored the game-tying run, and sent seven men to the plate. None of the seven was Torres. He never even made it as far as the on-deck circle that inning. Think about that. The No. 1 hitter in the lineup — the guy tasked with setting the table for the team’s best hitters — started the best possible rally (bases loaded with no outs) for the middle of the order, and Gleyber was one of two Yankees to not bat that inning. That shouldn’t happen. Torres is too good to be marginalized like this. I’d probably go with this lineup once Didi Gregorius returns tomorrow:

CF Aaron Hicks
DH Giancarlo Stanton
RF Andrew McCutchen
3B Miguel Andujar
2B Gleyber Torres
SS Didi Gregorius
C Gary Sanchez
1B Luke Voit
LF Brett Gardner

Gardner, a veteran leadoff hitter, would be the second leadoff hitter in that lineup, and the five best hitters would get the most at-bats, with the team leader in on-base percentage (at least while Aaron Judge is out) setting the table from the leadoff spot. It’s not worth the energy to argue whether a guy should hit eighth or ninth, or fifth or sixth, or something like that. This isn’t that though. Torres is hitting ninth and he should probably hitting 3-4-5 somewhere. That’s a big difference. Gleyber’s way too good to be the last guy the Yankees send to the plate in any given game.

2. Speaking of Torres, wow does he look good at shortstop. There have been some careless errors on routine plays, there’s no doubt about that, but those issues aren’t position-specific. He had the same problems at second. Gleyber looks so natural at shortstop, which makes sense because he is a natural shortstop who only moved to second base last year. He played 18 minor league games at second base prior to this season. That’s it. He’s now up to 112 career games at second base. Inexperience and growing pains were inevitable. I never really appreciated how difficult it can be shifting to the other side of the bag until Starlin Castro said it felt like everything was backwards when he moved from short to second. The sloppy errors need to be cleaned up. We’re also talking about a 21-year-old rookie who’s shown very good defensive tools in his range and arm …

… and just needs to gain some consistency. He’s 21, not 31. Give him some time. Seeing Gleyber at shortstop has been real eye-opening to me. He looks so smooth and natural there. Things at second can be a bit more challenging due to his inexperience. Give Torres time and I’m sure he’ll make second base look natural too.

3. As for Miguel Andujar, his defense is bad, folks. Real bad. I am usually a “give the young player some time and see if he improves” guy. Normally I’d say leave Andujar at third base and give him at least next year to show whether he can get better. In this case, Andujar’s defense has been so bad this year that I wonder if the Yankees are looking at a Ryan Braun situation here. Braun came up in 2007 and mashed en route to being named NL Rookie of the Year. He also had one of the worst defensive season since DRS became a thing in 2003, so much so that the Brewers moved him from third base to left field the next season. Andujar isn’t Braun bad at third, but he’s bad. If the Yankees were to move Andujar off the hot corner, the outfield seems like a better idea to me than first base, for three reasons. One, it gets him further away from the plate and gives him more time to react. Two, his arm is a cannon and it would go to waste at first. It’s more useful in the outfield. And three, if you’re trying to hide a guy defensively, moving him to the position involved in the most plays seems like a bad idea. (Between balls in play and throws from other infielders, first basemen have been involved in more than twice as many plays as any other position this year, and more than four times as many as the average corner outfielder.) I’m on the fence about Andujar’s defensive future. If the Yankees decide to stick with him at third a little longer, that works for me. If they decide to move him off the position and into the outfield, that works too. Maybe the endgame here is turning Andujar into a guy who can be in the lineup everyday while rotating between first, third, or in the corner outfield.

4. I have no idea what the Yankees should do with Greg Bird. Luke Voit is mashing and has to keep playing, and because Bird isn’t hitting and doesn’t offer a lick of defensive versatility, there’s no way to get him into the lineup. The Yankees need to DH spot for Stanton’s tender hamstring. I also don’t think the Yankees can simply leave Bird on the bench indefinitely. At some point they have to get him back into the lineup and see whether they can him going, even as a potential pinch-hitter option, otherwise he might not even be worth a postseason roster spot. Once the Yankees start clinching things — the magic number for a postseason spot is 14 and the magic number for the top wildcard spot is 19 — getting Bird into the lineup more regularly seems worthwhile. We saw last October that Bird has the potential to be impactful in big games and the Yankees should want to get him back to that point as soon as possible. Right now, his production doesn’t warrant a lineup spot, certainly not over Voit, so this is something the Yankees should deal with once their postseason ticket is punched later this month.

5. Earlier this season David Robertson toyed with dropping his arm slot and slinging his fastball almost sidearm (example), and now it seems he’s mixing in a few two-seam fastballs. He’s thrown two two-seamers in each of his last three appearances. Prior to that, he hadn’t thrown the pitch since last June, when he was still with the White Sox. Here’s one of those two-seamers:

Huh. That’s interesting. Robertson has been a cutter/curveball pitcher for years and years and years. Since his first stint with the Yankees. Now he’s mixing in a two-seamer — a fastball that moves in the opposite direction of the cutter, which could make it a nice surprise weapon against hitters familiar with him — and the fact he’s thrown it multiple times in his last three outings suggests it’s intentional. The sidearm fastball thing has kinda gone away. Release point data says he hasn’t thrown one of those since April. So maybe that means this two-seamer will go away eventually too. Robertson’s a wily veteran now and he’s a bit of a tinkerer, and the two-seamer is currently the shiny new toy. Either way, sidearm fastball or no sidearm fastball, two-seamer or no two-seamer, Robertson is having yet another excellent season. We’ll see what happens after the year. To me, re-signing him is a no-brainer. He should be a forever Yankee.

6. I’m really bummed about the Clint Frazier news. He suffered a setback at some point over the weekend and the Yankees sent him to see a specialist in Pittsburgh, and now he’s back in Tampa doing … I don’t know what. Probably nothing since they have to wait for the post-concussion symptoms to subside. At this point the primary concern is not baseball. It’s his health and quality of life. Frazier suffered a brain injury when he crashed into that wall in Spring Training, and he’s still feeling the effects six months later. That’s scary. I can’t imagine what it’s like going through that. Hopefully Frazier gets healthy and soon, and can have a normal and productive offseason. He’s still so young, man. He has his entire career and his entire life ahead of him. Hopefully the concussion and migraine issues subside soon and Clint is able to come to Spring Training next year ready to go and able to win a big league job. The injury already cost him a shot at big league time this year when Judge was sidelined. With any luck, Frazier will come through all this okay and be a better player after going through the adversity. Hopefully this is a bump in the road and nothing more, both with regards to his baseball team and his long-term health. Concussions are no joke.

Thinking Ahead to 2019

September 2, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Before we begin, an early Happy Labor Day to all of you. While you’re winding your summer down this weekend, please take a minute and reflect on the blood, sweat, and tears of the labor movement that made this weekend and so many other things possible.

Last week, I had my first three days of work since June. There weren’t any students, and not even the full staff was there, but it gave those of us who were there a chance to plan ahead. So, in a notebook, I have my units and lessons vaguely planned out up through the three day weekend of Veteran’s Day. Like talking about the Yankees’ roster in 2019 in September 2018, that’s a fool’s errand because so many things can and will come up to disrupt those plans. Regardless, and given that shaker of salt to consider, let’s take a look into the near future.

Starting with departures, the Yankees have a handful of pending free agents. On the pitching side of things, there’s CC Sabathia, JA Happ, Lance Lynn, David Robertson, and Zach Britton. On the position player side of things, there’s Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Brett Gardner (with a $2MM buyout). That would leave the roster looking something like this as this year ends and next year begins.

C–Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine/Kyle Higashioka

1B–Greg Bird, Luke Voit

2B–Gleyber Torres, Ronald Torreyes

3B–Miguel Andujar

SS–Didi Gregorius

LF– Clint Frazier

CF–Aaron Hicks

RF–Aaron Judge

DH–Giancarlo Stanton

SP–Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, Justus Sheffield (hopefully?), OPEN–presumably Jordan Montgomery if/when healthy

RP–Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Holder, AJ Cole, Stephen Tarpley, Luis Cessa

That in and of itself is a decent roster; with it, the Yankees could easily compete, but there are enough questions that ‘reinforcements’ would be needed, especially on the pitching staff. A backup outfielder is also needed, as this bench is pretty thin.

Starting with, well, the starters, I think it’s almost a no brainer to bring CC Sabathia back. At this point, he’s earned the Andy Pettitte treatment–one year deals until he’s ready to retire. As he finishes out his career, he’s a good option on the back end of the rotation and he would be a great mentor to the younger guys on the staff in Sheffield and Montgomery. Additionally, he sets the tone for the clubhouse and having that around for another year would be valuable for the team in its present and future.

JA Happ has also earned a shot at a second look, at the very least. Having another lefty in the rotation, especially in Yankee Stadium, would be welcomed. His transition to a strikeout pitcher is also promising as his career moves forward. I’m not sure I’d go more than one or two years with him, but I wouldn’t object to him being back at all.

Between those relievers (and Lance Lynn), I think I’d only bring one back, and it would be David Robertson. Zach Britton still seems to be searching for something and while it might be a case of letting him go just as he’s about to figure things out, it’s risky enough that I’d be okay walking away.

As for the position players, all three are probably worthy of starting jobs, but it’s unclear if there would be one for them. Though it’s hard to say this–given he’s basically the position player version of Sabathia at this point, with the added homegrown label–it might be time for the Yankees to move on from Brett Gardner. I’ve loved rooting for him since his time in the minors and he’s been a good-at-times-great player for the Yankees since he came up, but the constant second half swoons and the young, viable replacement that is Clint Frazier make me think a send off is fine.

This, of course, doesn’t factor in outside spending and the Yankees–as every team–will look at the FA market for options, including Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. I, however, am unconvinced that the Yankees will spend big on either one. It would require a lot of moving parts and I don’t think that ownership wants to spend big anymore. While frustrating at times, it is an okay strategy in free agency, especially when the team doesn’t necessarily need big stars, given its construction and production.

Thoughts following the Andrew McCutchen trade

September 1, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

It took a little longer than I think everyone would’ve liked, but the Yankees have officially acquired an Aaron Judge replacement, and they got a good one. Prospects Abi Avelino and Juan De Paula went to the Giants for former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen yesterday. McCutchen is an impending free agent — that makes him a 27-game (plus postseason) rental — and the Giants are paying half his $2.4M salary to help make the luxury tax plan work. Time for some trade related thoughts.

1. Question No. 1: What does this mean for Aaron Judge? I do think the trade is an indication the Yankees have some concern either Judge won’t return before the postseason, or at least won’t return at full strength. There are four weeks and one day to go in the regular season and Judge has not yet started swinging a bat. Whenever he is cleared to swing, he first has to take dry swings, then hit off a tee and soft toss, then hit in the cage, then take batting practice, then face live pitching, and then play in games to shake off the rust. It’s a process and it takes time, and while there are four weeks remaining in the regular season, time is starting to run out. The minor league season ends in two days, so Judge won’t be able to play in rehab games. There is point of no return here and every day Judge doesn’t swing a bat brings us one day closer to that point. At the trade deadline, a few days after Judge went down, Brian Cashman said he was looking for an outfielder who could slide into a bench role once Judge gets healthy. That’s not McCutchen. They picked up an above-average everyday player who’s never been a part-timer or platoon bat. This isn’t a stopgap pickup. This is a “we need an everyday guy in case Judge doesn’t come back” pickup. That doesn’t necessarily mean Judge isn’t expected back or won’t come back. It just means the Yankees have enough concern that they added some protection.

2. Question No. 2: How does everyone fit when Judge returns? This is not something worth worrying about right now. Worry about it when Judge does actually return, which doesn’t seem to be imminent. In a perfect world scenario, Judge comes back with two or three weeks to go in the regular season, giving him time to get at-bats and get back to full strength. If that does happen, and I really hope it does, McCutchen allows the Yankees to get Giancarlo Stanton off that tight hamstring for a bit, and it allows them to rest Aaron Hicks and especially Brett Gardner a little more often. If Judge gets healthy and the Yankees go into the postseason with five outfielders (Gardner, Hicks, Judge, McCutchen, Stanton) for four spots (three outfield plus DH), then celebrate. Too many good players is better than not enough. Aaron Boone will have plenty of lineup options. Let’s worry how all the pieces fit when all the pieces are actually healthy and on the active roster. That isn’t the case right now and it doesn’t appear it will be anytime soon.

3. Question No. 3: What took so long? The Yankees have needed an outfielder for weeks now. Weeks. It has been five weeks and two days since Judge got hurt. Billy McKinney was traded earlier that same day. Clint Frazier has been on the disabled list since the All-Star break. The outfield need didn’t come out of nowhere, and yet, the Yankees didn’t get Judge’s replacement until five weeks after Judge got hurt. And during those five weeks the Yankees essentially slipped out of the AL East race completely. Replacing Shane Robinson with McCutchen or Curtis Granderson or whoever on July 31st probably doesn’t change the division race much — they’d be what, maybe three games closer to the Red Sox at the most? — but still, would’ve been nice to have a real outfielder this last month. In McCutchen’s case, the Giants weren’t ready to trade him at the deadline because they were still in the postseason mix and wanted to try to make a run. Didn’t happen. They slipped in the standings and decided to cash him in as a trade chip. There were other outfielders available though. I know that because there are always outfielders available. I don’t know if the asking prices were too high or if nothing worked under the luxury tax plan or something else. Whatever it was, getting an outfielder is really something that should’ve happened weeks ago. Better later than never though.

4. Among the players who were actually available on the trade market, meaning no fantasy Bryce Harper trade, McCutchen is the best possible replacement for Judge. He’s no longer the MVP caliber player he was in his prime — this dude hit .313/.404/.523 (157 wRC+) from 2012-15 — but he’s hitting .255/.357/.415 (115 wRC+) this season and will walk a ton (12.9%) without striking out excessively (21.7%). Moving from spacious AT&T Park to hitter friendly Yankee Stadium figures to increase his power output, though there are only eleven home games remaining in the regular season. Beyond all that though, McCutchen has a flair for the dramatic …

… and he’s a Grade-A clubhouse dude who plays with a lot of energy and a lot of swagger. He’ll quickly become a fan favorite. Also, McCutchen has been a star player on a contending team. He was The Man when the Pirates averaged 93 wins a season and went to the postseason three straight years from 2012-15. McCutchen was the centerpiece of the lineup and the franchise player. He knows what that is all about and I have no worries about him fitting in. There might even be a Todd Frazier effect, so to speak. Frazier came in last year and, in addition to being productive on the field, he gave the team some more life and confidence. McCutchen can do the same this year. Other guys like Granderson and Adam Jones would’ve been adequate outfield fill-ins as well. McCutchen was the best possible addition in my opinion though.

5. Between the McCutchen trade and the imminent returns of Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius, the Yankees are getting a real shot in the arm this weekend. Sanchez will be activated today and Gregorius isn’t far off. The Yankees will still be without Judge for a while, but they have a more than competent replacement now, and their starting catcher and starting shortstop are back as well. We’ve seen some lineups the last few weeks where the 7-8-9 hitters had a real 2013 Yankees feel to them, no? McCutchen, Sanchez, and Gregorius are three middle of the order types, which means guys like Walker and Voit can move down in the lineup, adding depth. A possible lineup:

CF Aaron Hicks
DH Giancarlo Stanton
SS Didi Gregorius
RF Andrew McCutchen
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
2B Gleyber Torres
1B Luke Voit/Neil Walker (sorry, Greg Bird, but you can’t seem to hit anymore)
LF Brett Gardner

Boone said he may bat McCutchen leadoff, but I think Hicks should be the regular leadoff hitter, and I said so weeks ago. Will Boone actually do that though? I’m not sure. Also, something tells me four straight right-handed hitters in the 4-5-6-7 spots will give Boone the heebie-jeebies, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see McCutchen leading off and Hicks hitting fourth or fifth to break that up. The lineup above is probably the lineup I’d go with though, without thinking about it too much. Flipping Stanton and McCutchen would work, ditto flipping Sanchez and Torres. That’s the way I’d go, I think. Sure looks a heck of a lot better than the lineups they’ve been running out there since Didi got hurt, doesn’t it?

6. Look at that lineup above. Look how much turnover there’s been since Opening Day. The Yankees have a new right fielder, a few first baseman, a new second baseman, and a new third baseman. And also two new starting pitchers and a new late-inning reliever. Four-ninths of the lineup and two-fifths of the rotation have turned over since Opening Day. Part of that was planned (Torres was always going to take over at second base at some point) but most of it wasn’t (Luke Voit!?). Amazing how so much can change in this game over the course of the 162-game season, even with the best teams. The Yankees came into the year with like seven viable big league outfielders and now here they are trading for McCutchen in August. Go figure.

7. Not often you can say this about a guy who hit .298/.387/.533 between Triple-A and MLB, but wow what a crappy year for Clint Frazier. He missed much of Spring Training and the first few weeks of the regular season with the concussion, then went up and down a bunch of times as a spare bench bat, and then the post-concussion migraines flared up just in time to land him on the disabled list right when playing time became available. It would’ve been Frazier in right field these last few weeks instead of Robinson and Walker. He would’ve been in the lineup every single day. The concussion and migraines robbed him of an opportunity at regular playing time, and a chance to show the Yankees and everyone else what he can do. Sucks. And now the Yankees trade for McCutchen just as Clint begins a minor league rehab assignment. Poor kid, man. Awful timing from start to finish. It’s been a difficult year for Frazier. Hopefully he finishes healthy and strong, has a good offseason, and becomes a better player after dealing with all the adversity this year. (I wonder if Frazier will look to play winter ball somewhere to make up for the lost time. He has too much service time for the Arizona Fall League.)

8. As for Avelino and De Paula, the Yankees didn’t give up a whole lot to get McCutchen, which isn’t surprising. He’s a one-month (plus postseason) rental. I had neither Avelino nor De Paula in my most recent top 30 Yankees prospects list — before the trade MLB.com ranked them as the 23rd and 26th best prospects in the system, respectively — and they were both surplus players for the Yankees. Avelino’s a middle infielder who had success in Double-A (162 wRC+) and not much success in Triple-A (83 wRC+) this year while repeating the levels, and he’s due to become a minor league free agent after the season. I don’t think he was a good bet to get a 40-man roster spot at all with Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada still around. As for De Paula, he is still in short season ball and the Yankees are loaded with lower level pitching prospects. He’ll be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and, with his 21st birthday three weeks away, De Paula was one of the team’s oldest pitching prospects not in full season minor league ball. He was arguably the most expendable of the bunch. Avelino figures to get a chance to help the Giants right away as a utility guy. They wouldn’t have traded for him if they weren’t planning to add him to the 40-man to prevent him from leaving as a minor league free agent this winter. De Paula is still a few years away from helping. The Yankees dealt from positions of depth and gave up two players they’re not going to miss. Avelino was probably a goner after the season and De Paula is way too far down the ladder to worry about.

9. This is the first time the Yankees have made an August waiver trade since getting Steve Pearce for cash in 2012, and that was a minor trade for a spare part player — that was two years before Pearce really broke out with the Orioles — who was waived after 12 games. The last time the Yankees made an August waiver trade for a no-doubt big league player who stayed on their roster the rest of the season was 2009, when they sent cash to the Padres for Chad Gaudin. The sample size is not big, but the best August waiver trade the Yankees ever made went down in 1996, when they got Charlie Hayes from the Pirates for a minor leaguer who never made it. Hayes went 19-for-67 (.284) with three doubles and two homers in 20 regular season games with the Yankees, then caught the final out of the World Series. So, long story short, there’s a pretty darn good chance McCutchen will go down as the best August waiver trade pickup in franchise history. He has to perform, of course, but there’s no reason to think he won’t other than baseball being weird sometimes. It’s not often impactful trades go down in August. That Justin Verlander deal last year? A complete and total outlier for August, historically. The Yankees may’ve just made an impactful August trade, however. McCutchen is a great player who fills a big need and is a super likeable dude.

Thoughts two games into the seven-game homestand

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

After falling behind 4-0 last night, the Yankees rallied for a 5-4 walk-off win over the White Sox, giving them 16 wins in their last 22 games. They have been taking care of business against bad teams these last three weeks. Anyway, here’s a rare mid-series thoughts post because I have some stuff scattered in my head and jotted down in my notebook that I don’t want to sit on any longer. Let’s get to it.

1. The Yankees are 84-48 right now — hooray for a palindrome record! — so they have to go 16-14 the rest of the way to reach 100 wins for the first time since winning 103 games in 2009. The schedule does toughen up a bit in September (three with the Athletics, four with the Rays, six with the Red Sox), but 16-14 seems very doable. Through 132 games last season the Yankees were 70-62. They are 14 games ahead of that pace this year. The Indians finished with the best record in the American League last season and they were 76-56 through 132 games. The Yankees are eight games ahead of that pace. The eventual World Series champion Astros were 79-53 through 132 games last year. The 2018 Yankees are five games ahead of that pace. This team is so freaking good, man. Even with all the injuries and Luis Severino’s recent slump. They’re just so good. They’re so good and I feel like not enough people have taken a step back to appreciate just how good they are. The 2018 Yankees have to be the most complained about great team in the social media era. Hands down.

2. By my unofficial count, only 48 55 times in their 132 games have the Yankees had Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Judge in the starting lineup this season. They were their three best position players last year and only 48 55 times have all three been in the lineup so far this season. Hopefully that number increases soon — Sanchez and Gregorius could be back as soon as this weekend, though Judge is still a ways off, it seems — but it won’t increase much. There’s not much season left. Sanchez, Gregorius, and Judge will be in the lineup together maybe 60-something times this year and still somehow this team is on pace to win over 100 games. Never in a million years would I have thought the Yankees would be able to maintain a 100+ win pace with those three spending so little time in the lineup together. I know it sounds silly when dudes like Shane Robinson and Kyle Higashioka are on the roster, but that is a testament to the team’s depth. There’s been a “next man up” mentality all season.

3. I know he’s slumping a bit right now but I can’t say enough about how well Giancarlo Stanton has played the last few months. Last night was his 81st consecutive start — his last game off was May 28th — even though he’s been battling that tight hamstring more than a month now. Going into last night, in the first 80 games of these 81 straight starts, Stanton hit .298/.369/.554 (146 wRC+) with 21 homers. That is big time production. Stanton’s little slump right now is nothing to worry about. It’s his first real slump since what, April? It was bound to happen. He’ll snap out of it before you know it. Point is, Stanton has been an impact player since his rough start to the season, and he’s doing it while playing hurt and never taking a game off. Chances are he’ll never hit 59 home runs again because hitting 59 home runs is extremely rare — Stanton had only the tenth 59+ homer season in MLB history last year — but he’s been playing every game because the Yankees have needed him to play every game, and he’s been extremely productive. What a ballplayer.

4. I am so very happy Dellin Betances bounced back this season. He is a personal favorite and the end of last season was such a mess for him. Betances became persona non grata in September and in the postseason and it was entirely deserved. He pitched poorly and Joe Girardi couldn’t trust him in important innings. Dellin started slow again this year and pretty much everyone doubted him. Lots and lots of folks were ready to give up on him. The Yankees stuck with him and are being rewarded with another elite relief season. Betances currently has a 2.14 ERA (2.15 FIP) with a career high 44.4% strikeout rate and the second lowest walk rate (9.3%) of his career. Pretty much all the key late inning guys have had a hiccup at some point this summer. Aroldis Chapman’s knee has been an issue lately, Chad Green stumbled around the All-Star break, and David Robertson has given up some untimely home runs. Betances has been a rock since April. Three runs and 32 baserunners in his last 39 appearances and 38.2 innings now, with 66 strikeouts. What a beast. So happy for Dellin.

5. The Yankees already have six 20-homer guys this year and Sanchez is not one of them. Stanton, Judge, Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Hicks. Those are the six. Sanchez is sitting on 14 home runs and I wouldn’t put hitting six homers in September past him. The 2018 Yankees have a chance to become only seventh team in history with seven 20-homer hitters, and only the second Yankees team to do it, joining the 2009 squad (Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira). The Yankees already have nine players with 10+ homers this season with two others (Austin Romine, Neil Walker) sitting on nine homers. Only four teams in history have had eleven players hit 10+ home runs (2004 Tigers, 2015 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2017 Astros). The Yankees could do it this year. That is pretty incredible. There is power up and down the lineup and it showed in last night’s game. The No. 3 (Hicks) and No. 4 (Andujar) hitters both went deep, and a dude came off the bench (Walker) to hit a pinch-hit walk-off homer.

6. Speaking of Walker, I am getting a very 2012 Raul Ibanez vibe from him. The Yankees signed Ibanez right before Spring Training that year and he was supposed to be a platoon DH. He struggled early in the year, then once injuries forced him into everyday duty, he really hit his stride and had all those big hits late in the season and in the postseason. Walker signed in Spring Training, was supposed to be a part-time utility guy, and didn’t really hit his stride until injuries forced him into everyday duty. Prior to last night’s pinch-hit walk-off homer, Walker was hitting .275/.357/.467 (122 wRC+) in his last 37 games and 140 plate appearances. That looks an awful lot like the .274/.355/.458 (118 wRC+) batting line he put up from 2016-17. Expecting Walker to hit insanely clutch home runs seemingly on demand like Ibanez in 2012 is unrealistic — maybe last night was the start of a clutch homer binge! — but the point is he’s a quality player who started the season terribly, and has played very well lately, once his playing time increased. He’s done it while playing right field too. Dude has been a total pro. He’s playing wherever he’s needed, he never ducked questions about his early season struggles, and he never pouted about his lack of playing time. It took a little longer than we all would’ve liked, but Walker has found his way and he’s contributing on the regular.

7. Once Judge returns from the disabled list and goes back to right field, Walker has to take over as the starting first baseman. Luke Voit is fine and all, but give me Walker over Voit. There is a minimum acceptable level of offense in Major League Baseball and Greg Bird isn’t coming close to it with his .196/.284/.384 (80 wRC+) batting line. He’s going to reach 300 plate appearances later this week. This isn’t that small a sample any more. Bird has been terrible and the Yankees have been patient, and we’re reaching the point where putting the best team on the field has to take priority over hoping a player snaps out of a long funk. Once Judge returns, the best team the Yankees can field has Walker at first base, not Bird (or Voit). Maybe Bird will start hitting between now and the time Judge returns and forces the issue. That would be cool. Aside from the occasional homer though, he’s been a zero at the plate, and I don’t think the Yankees can afford to continue waiting on him. He gets until Judge returns. That has to be it. Then it’s Walker time.

8. I feel like we can already pencil Lance Lynn in for one of those heroic three or four-inning relief appearances in the postseason. Know what I mean? The starter gets knocked out early and he holds the other team down, allowing the offense to get back in the game. That sorta thing. Right now I have to think the Yankees would go with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A. Happ as their four postseason starters in whatever order. Lynn has experience pitching out of the bullpen — the Cardinals regularly used him as a high-leverage guy in the postseason during their heyday from 2011-15 — and he seems to have the right mentality for it. I don’t see the Yankees carrying Sonny Gray on the postseason roster because there’s just no way to trust him. That means Lynn takes over as the long man. Lynn has one of those “Lance Lynn is the unsung hero of this game” relief appearances coming this October. You heard it here first.

Bullpenning the Wild Card Game

August 26, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

In the 2017 AL Wild Card game between the Yankees and the Twins, lightning struck three times. First, Luis Severino, who’d established himself as an ace in the regular season, had nothing and gave up three runs while recording just one out. Second, the Yankees’ offense immediately came back in the bottom of the first. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the Yankees’ bullpen was virtually flawless, going 8.2 innings, surrendering just one run, and allowing only five hits and three walks. While it wasn’t the plan, the Yankees bullpened their most important game of the season to date.

While the Yankees certainly had the bullpen strength to plan that sort of game, it wasn’t what they intended. It happened by necessity and paid off. Had they planned to go the bullpen route, who knows what would’ve happened.

Once again, the Yankees are poised to make the Wild Card game and have a strong bullpen. Their ace has struggled at times, as has his ‘back up’ in Masahiro Tanaka. Should the Yankees employ the bullpen strategy during the Wild Card game?

It’s easy to see the bare bones of how they could do such a thing. Chad Green or Dellin Betances could start the game, using their high-octane stuff against the top of the order. For argument’s sake, let’s say it’s Green who goes first and handles the first two innings. After that, you could throw in one inning of Jonathan Holder against the bottom of the lineup to get you through the third, then Betances for two in the fourth and fifth. From there, David Robertson takes the sixth and seventh with Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman for an inning each to end it.

Alternatively, the Yankees could have a reliever start the game, throw two innings, and hand the ball to a starter for the next three before he makes way for the back end of the bullpen–Robertson, Betances, Britton, Chapman playing matchups.

This strategy is certainly tempting, but ultimately, I think only the absolute right set of circumstances would need to exist for it to be something the Yankees should try. First, the Yankees would need to be ‘out’ of viable starters. To me, that means that they had to fight for a playoff spot or division title down the stretch and used one of Severino or Tanaka before the Wild Card game. Second, they would need to try it at least once or twice in the regular season. Pitchers tend to be creatures of habit and having them break those habits for the first time before the biggest game of the season would likely be unwise.

Despite any struggles they’ve had this year, I’m much more inclined to trust Luis Severino or Masahiro Tanaka in a big game like the Wild Card game than I am a new strategy, even if it should work in theory. It’s something the pitchers are likely to be unfamiliar with and the playoffs is not the time to make your own players uncomfortable.

Thoughts before the Yankees begin a six-game road trip

August 21, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The summer of weird scheduling continues. The six-game road trip begins in earnest tonight and it includes two off-days and one doubleheader. The Yankees will play two games against the Marlins this week and then four games in three days against the Orioles this weekend. They have a doubleheader Saturday. Anyway, I have some thoughts on things, so let’s get to ’em.

1. I feel like we need a little dose of reality here because Deranged Yankees Fan Syndrome™ seems to be at an all-time high. The Yankees are on pace for 102 wins and a +193 run differential. They are second in runs scored per game (5.22) and sixth in runs allowed per game (4.02). Their worst 30-game stretch is 15-15. The Yankees have been without their MVP caliber right fielder for almost four weeks now, and Gary Sanchez has been either hurt or bad pretty much all season — Gary has played five (5) games over the last two calendar months — and the absolute worst they’ve played during a 30-game stretch is .500 ball. The Yankees are very good and on the short list of teams with a legitimate chance to win the World Series. I get that the Red Sox are having a historic season and everyone is upset about it. There’s nothing the Yankees can do about that though. The Yankees are very good and very dangerous, and once they get back to full strength, they’ll be even more dangerous. I can’t wait.

2. Speaking of that MVP caliber right fielder, wow did the Yankees botch Aaron Judge’s recovery timetable. They didn’t botch the rehab work, thankfully — it’s not like Judge suffered a setback and had to be shut down — they just botched the timetable. They said he would be able to return to game action in three weeks and here we are three weeks and five days later, and Judge still has not started taking dry swings. Joel Sherman spoke to Brian Cashman about it and Cashman basically chalked it up to being overly optimistic. Sucks. The important thing is Judge is continuing with his rehab work and is expected back this year. Whenever he comes back is whenever he comes back. The Yankees have to be patient because Judge is way too important. They need him for the postseason. The rest of the regular season? Eh, they can manage without him. Hopefully Judge comes back fairly soon and gets enough at-bats in September to be ready for October. But wow, the Yankees really overshot the timetable here. Three weeks will end up being not even close to his actual timetable.

3. He’s not going to win MVP nor should he win MVP, but man, Giancarlo Stanton sure is playing like an MVP these days, isn’t he? Stanton is hitting .302/.366/.579 (151 wRC+) with 27 home runs since May 1st and .324/.381/.613 (163 wRC+) with 13 home runs since July 1st, and he’s done that while playing with a tight hamstring. He’s playing hurt and he’s having an impact. Stanton is sitting on 299 career home runs and it sure would be cool to see him hit his 300th in one of these two games at Marlins Park. Even if he doesn’t get hit that 300th home run tonight or tomorrow, I imagine returning to Miami will be pretty special for him. He should get a pretty big ovation. Either way, Stanton has been incredible the last few weeks and months. What a ballplayer this guy is. I can’t wait to see him and Judge back in the lineup together and locked in at the same time.

4. Still waiting for the Yankees to get a bat, you guys. I know they’ve scored plenty of runs lately — the Yankees are averaging 5.32 runs per game in August — but I’m not sure Neil Walker in right field is a viable long-term solution. He’s done his best out there. I would just prefer an actual outfielder in right field with Walker splitting his time at the various infield spots. Curtis Granderson has cleared trade waivers already and he makes perfect sense to me. Whoever it is, Granderson or someone else, the Yankees have until 11:59pm ET on August 31st to make a deal and have that player be eligible for the postseason roster. There are no loopholes or anything here. That is a hard deadline, which means the Yankees have ten days to make a trade for a postseason-eligible player. They should do it. Get that bat and give yourself protection in case Judge doesn’t come back or Greg Bird doesn’t start hitting or whatever. It’s crazy to me the Yankees haven’t added a bat already. There’s still time to address that.

5. The Yankees have had some pretty crummy timing with injuries this year. It’s no one’s fault. It’s just the way things played out. Erik Kratz informed the Yankees he was planning to use him June 1st opt-out, so they traded him to the Brewers rather than lose him for nothing. Soon thereafter, Sanchez went on the disabled list and the Yankees had to dip into their catching depth. Kratz isn’t great or anything (he’s hitting .244/.281/.370 with Milwaukee), but he’s a viable third catcher on the depth chart who wasn’t available when Sanchez got hurt. Then the Yankees traded Billy McKinney literally hours before Judge suffered the broken wrist. The trade press release went out at 4:09pm ET. Judge got hit in his first at-bat of a 7pm ET game, so roughly a three-hour difference there. Unfortunate, but what can you do? Just some bad luck with timing this year. Bad timing and unfortunate injuries, and the Yankees are still among the best teams in MLB. Would be nice if they caught a break somewhere along the way though.

6. I’m certain we’re going to see Justus Sheffield before the end of the season. Cashman all but confirmed it last week. My guess is Sheffield will be called up after the Triple-A postseason ends in September. (Assuming the RailRiders qualify.) And because he has power swing-and-miss stuff from the left side, Sheffield will have an opportunity to pitch his way into consideration for the postseason roster. Jordan Montgomery’s season-ending injury is kinda important here. Montgomery’s injury allows the Yankees to carry a pitcher on their postseason roster even if that pitcher doesn’t pitch in the big leagues before September 1st. Sheffield would, technically, replace Montgomery on the postseason roster. It’s kinda silly, but that’s the rule. Francisco Rodriguez replaced Steve Green, an up-and-down guy who needed Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, on the Angels postseason roster in 2002. The Yankees have such a good bullpen that I’m not sure Sheffield will get enough innings in September to show he belongs on the postseason roster, but hey, I sure am looking forward to watching him.

Bad Timing: The Late Season Yankee Outfield

August 12, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Now is the August of our outfield discontent. Aaron Judge is out, Giancarlo Stanton has a minor-but-nagging injury, and Shane Robinson has started ten of the last 15 games. Neil Walker started in right field yesterday. The perfect back up option–Clint Frazier–is also injured and the Judge injury happened so close to the non-waiver deadline that the team wasn’t able to get a suitable replacement in time. Bad timing has defined the Yankee outfield for much of the season, especially now in the penultimate month of the season.

When Aaron Hicks was injured in the first series of the year, Clint Frazier was dealing with his first concussion of the year. When Aaron Judge was injured, Frazier was dealing with his second concussion of the year. There is no better example of how cruel baseball can be with its timing than this. Frazier has shown all year that he’s done with AAA and is ready to contribute to the big club in a big way, yet he’s been unable to because of things he can’t control. Dealing with that alone would be challenging. Dealing with it while also being the subject of myriad trade rumors and speculation, along with an uncalled for, low blow from the team’s lead broadcaster is almost daunting. If Frazier can make it through this year in one relatively whole piece, he’ll be able to make it through anything as a baseball player.

In April, Aaron Hicks had an above .800 OPS and Aaron Judge had an above 1.000 OPS. Giancarlo Stanton had a .737 OPS that month, while Brett Gardner put up a paltry .601. Then, in May, Hicks OPS’d below .700 while Gardner got hot (.917 OPS) and Judge (.965) stayed hot. Stanton also improved to an .847 OPS. Stanton then had a great June while Judge was solid and Hicks got hot. Gardner, however, cooled off. July saw Hicks, Stanton, and Judge all rake while Gardner was merely adequate. That was the closest we’ve come to seeing all four of them clicking at the same time. Sure, it wouldn’t be likely that all four would hit to their max at the same time and it’s hard to complain with the Yankees’ results this year (try as we might), but getting them all on the same page at the same time would go a long way towards easing some ruffled hearts and minds.

The latest bit of bad timing–non Clint division–was Judge getting hurt just six days before the trade deadline. At that time, it’s unlikely the Yankees were focused on trading for another position player as they were trying to (successfully) beef up their pitching. There was still almost a week before the deadline, though, and we’re nearly halfway through August and the situation hasn’t quite been addressed. I’m sure the front office is working on it and we just don’t know, but it’s getting a little too late for a lack of action. There are concerns with acquiring a veteran–the Yankees have already given up prospects and there might be a lack of playing time for said veteran when Judge returns and, of course, the luxury tax concern.

To the the first two, I say, “Who cares?” To quote a great philosopher, we’re trying to win a ring around here. Despite the Red Sox’s dominance, the Yankees could still win a World Series this year and they should be doing everything they can to help that cause.

To the third, I roll my eyes. The luxury tax plan helps no one but the team’s bottom line and I remain unconvinced that they’ll go out and spend that savings money, especially with a crowded roster as it is.

It’s hard to fault anyone for the Yankees’ current outfield situation. When healthy, Judge has been himself. Stanton has turned back into the beast he is, Gardner has been mostly fine–despite a poor second half so far–and Hicks has been the AL’s best center fielder not named Mike Trout. Neither Clint Frazier nor Jacoby Ellsbury can or should be blamed for injuries. Aaron Boone can’t be blamed for playing the pieces he has. Brian Cashman probably didn’t have this in his plans, either, but he’s in position to make things recover a bit. Is it likely the Yankees catch the Red Sox and win the division? Not really, but they should make every effort, given how good this team can be and has been at times this year. Bad timing be damned; go get an outfielder and try to win a ring.