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Thoughts one week prior to Opening Day 2019

March 21, 2019 by Mike

In seven days the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at Yankee Stadium against the Orioles. Meaningful baseball is only one week away. Thank goodness for that. Hopefully no one else gets hurt between now and then. Anyway, I have some thoughts on things, so let’s get to ’em.

1. Two recent contract extensions are relevant to the Yankees. First, the Eloy Jimenez deal (six years, $43M) puts an end to any chance the Yankees had at signing Gleyber Torres to a six-year deal in the $30M range. Six years and $25M or so was the established rate for players with less than one full year of service time (Tim Anderson, Paul DeJong, Scott Kingery, Brandon Lowe). Forget that now. Jimenez smashed the pay scale. He and Torres are the same age and they’re both highly regarded prospects who were originally signed by the Cubs. Eloy hasn’t even made his Major League debut yet! Torres has an above-average big league season and an All-Star Game selection to his credit. Why would he take less than the Jimenez deal now? Oh well. Secondly, the Alex Bregman deal (six years, $100M) gives us another benchmark for an Aaron Judge extension. Bregman and Judge have nearly identical service time and they’re both MVP caliber producers. Their career numbers side-by-side:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%	WAR
Bregman	1,548	.282/.366/.500	137	58	15.5%	10.7%	+12.2
Judge	1,271	.273/.398/.565	155	83	31.6%	16.7%	+13.0

They go about it in different ways and at different positions, but the overall value is similar. Fortunately for Judge, he goes about it in a way that historically pays better (power), and he has more hardware. It’s two All-Star Game selections vs. one, MVP votes in two seasons vs. one, and a Rookie of the Year award vs. none. I spitballed a six-year extension at $100M for Judge recently, so I’m happy to see I was at least in the ballpark. Point is, we have another contract benchmark now. Bregman received six years and $100M at Judge’s current service time level. Mike Trout received six years and $144.5M at the same service time level a few years ago. It stands to reason a potential Judge extension should then fall somewhere between the two, right? Say, six years and $120M? That seems reasonable. Bregman’s deal and Trout’s deal both started right away. If you’re the Yankees, do you give Judge six years and $120M right now ($20M luxury tax hit from 2019-24) or a five-year deal at $119.32M that begins next year ($684,300 luxury tax hit in 2019 and $23.864M luxury tax hit from 2020-24)? Call it a six-year deal that begins immediately and they’d get slammed by the luxury tax this year. A five-year deal on top of the one-year contract he already signed for 2019 is probably the way to go. Well, anyway, the Jimenez extension raised the bar for Torres and the Bregman extension gave us a clearer picture of what it’ll take to sign Judge long-term. Thanks for nothing, White Sox. Thanks for the help, Astros.

2. I don’t have much to say about the Gio Gonzalez signing. Even though he’s no longer the guy he was at his peak, it is ridiculous a league average-ish innings dude like Gonzalez had to settle for a minor league contract a week before Opening Day. He would’ve been a fourth or fifth starter upgrade for what, maybe half the teams in baseball? For the Yankees, Gonzalez is zero risk pitching depth. It’s a 30-day free trial. If the Yankees like what they see, they can keep him. If not, they can let him opt out on April 20th. For Gonzalez, it’s an opportunity to face actual hitters in actual games, rather than continue to throw on his own. He can get himself into game shape and also audition himself for other teams in case he does opt out next month. Chances are the Yankees will need Gonzalez when his opt-out date arrives because who knows with the kids and injuries are always possible, though I don’t think it’s a lock he’ll be added to the roster. This could be a Kevin Millwood circa 2011 situation, where the Yankees have a recognizable name in the system, but let him walk rather than add him to the roster because his stuff is lacking. We’ll see. The Yankees get some added pitching depth and a free month-long look at Gonzalez with no financial commitment. Can’t complain about it at all.

3. Okay, I lied, one more Gio thought: $300,000 per start (up to 30 starts) isn’t a standard incentive. That is pricey, especially since it will be $396,000 per start in real money once you factor in the luxury tax. Gonzalez is a pretty good candidate for an opener at this point of his career — keeping him and his reduced stuff away from the other team’s best hitters seems worthwhile — and that could keep the Yankees away from the big money incentives. He could throw something like 150 innings behind the opener while making zero starts and earning zero incentives. That said, I get the sense Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras (and the MLBPA) would flip out about that. In that case, Gio would have a starter’s workload without actually starting, and they could argue the Yankees misled them and didn’t negotiate in good faith. They wooed him with starts-based incentives despite intending to pair him with an opener. That kinda thing. The Yankees set a precedent for paying bonuses that weren’t earned per the terms of the contract last year when they gave CC Sabathia the $500,000 bonus following the “That’s for you, bitch” incident even though he fell two innings short of the threshold, and I’m sure Boras would use against them. In all likelihood, this won’t matter at all and Gonzalez will make his starts. Still, it would make sense to pair him with an opener, and that could create an interesting situation with his incentives. Part of me doesn’t want to see Gonzalez in pinstripes because everyone else is healthy and pitching well and the Yankees don’t need him. Another part of me is curious to see how a potential opener/incentives situation would play out. It could get ugly.

4. Before it was announced he would begin the season on the injured list, my concern over Dellin Betances’ missing velocity was at a five on a scale of 1-10. Not panicked but his lack of velocity had my attention. Something clearly was not right. Dellin had a quick eight-pitch 1-2-3 inning in his most recent Grapefruit League outing and the television radar gun had his six fastballs at 89, 88, 89, 90, 92, and 90 mph. That’s … not where he should be. Betances is typically a slow starter velocity-wise and I know he reported to Spring Training a few days late following the birth of his son, but he’d been throwing for a month and had pitched in four Grapefruit League games up to that point. It seemed like the velocity should’ve started to creep up already. Before the injured list announcement, pitching coach Larry Rothschild told George King the Yankees were going to hold Betances out of games for a bit and work to build up his arm strength behind the scenes. “We are going to try and figure it out and see what it is. We need to see and play it by ear. Try to do some things, rest, long toss and see where it goes,” said Rothschild. Shoulder issues are never good, especially for a soon-to-be 31-year-old who’s thrown a ton of intense high-leverage innings the last five years, but at least now we have an explanation for the missing velocity. Betances said he cut back on his throwing leading up to the birth of his son and then did too much, too soon to get back up to speed when he reporting to Tampa. That sounds plausible. It is entirely possible age and the career workload are catching up to Dellin and his velocity is down for good. Father Time comes for everyone. Despite the shoulder issue, I’m optimistic that is not the case, and Betances will be back to normal following a little break and a proper throwing program. Still, those 89 mph fastballs over the weekend were jarring. It was clear something was not right.

5. Speaking of velocity, holy cats did y’all see Anderson Severino (no relation to Luis) over the weekend? The Yankees brought this little left-hander (listed at 5-foot-10 and 165 lbs.) up from minor league camp as an extra arm for the day, and he was out there throwing 99-100 mph. Severino had absolutely no idea where the ball was going, but still, that velo. Look at this:

The 24-year-old Severino spent four years in rookie ball before finally reaching full season ball last year, when he threw 45.2 relief innings with a 3.74 ERA (2.88 FIP) with 19.2% strikeouts and 8.4% walks for Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He hasn’t appeared on any prospect lists in recent years — “(His) size limits his upside, but he sat 92-95 mph with above average cut in short stints in instructs and flashed an average curveball,” wrote Kiley McDaniel about Severino back in January 2015 — and it is pretty damn amazing a lefty with that velocity can fly under the radar and not garner much attention. Even with that fastball, the odds are against Severino carving out an MLB league career at some point. That said, a lefty with that kinda velocity is going to stick around a while and continue getting chances. Pretty amazing the Yankees have dudes in the minors touching 100 mph and they’re not even on the prospect radar. Dellin’s velocity was jarring. Severino’s was eye-opening.

6. We’ve seen some funky defensive shifts in recent days. The Blue Jays used a four-man outfield against Aaron Judge and Greg Bird over the weekend, and the Rays did the same thing two days ago. I reckon we’ll see that during the regular season at times because Judge and Bird are both extreme fly ball and line drive hitters, so you might as well align your defense to their strengths. Joey Votto and Joey Gallo have seen four-man outfields during the regular season and it’s only a matter of time until other extreme non-grounder guys see it as well. Get ready for that. Also, Aaron Boone told Pete Caldera the Yankees have discussed using a five-man infield behind extreme ground baller Zack Britton. “Do we consider, in certain spots, like a five-man infield? Those kind of things,” said Boone. In certain situations, why not? The Rays have a lot of ground ball hitters, for example. Why not use a five-man infield behind Britton against ground ball heavy hitters on occasion? It’s an interesting idea and I’m curious about the mechanics. Do the Yankees ask Brett Gardner (lefty thrower), Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, or Giancarlo Stanton to play the infield in those spots? I don’t think so. That’s setting them up for failure. I guess that means you replace an outfielder with Tyler Wade, use him on the five-man infield, then move him to the outfield thereafter. Seems like a real creative use of Wade’s versatility. I hope we see this at some point. Weird baseball things are fun.

7. I could not possibly dislike the new September call-up rules more. Starting next season teams get a 26-man roster with a 13-pitcher limit from April through August (and in the postseason), then, in September, it’s a 28-man roster with a 14-pitcher limit. Teams must carry 28 players in September, which I guess is a good thing, and the ten-day waiting period still applies if you send a player down. You can’t have a taxi squad of pitchers that rotate in and out every two or three days. This stinks so much. The 28-man roster (and one extra pitcher spot) means it’s that much more difficult to rest worn down pitchers late in the season, but I guess the union isn’t worried about protecting arms. Also, there are a lot of players — a lot of players — whose only shot at the big leagues is as a September call-up. So many players now have no real chance at experiencing the big leagues and that sucks. It completely sucks. In addition to the increased salary — one month at the MLB minimum salary is more than seven times a full season at the Triple-A minimum salary — one day in the big leagues gets you access to the MLBPA’s healthcare program for life, and that is life-changing for so many players and their families. That is off the table for many now. Look at Stephen Tarpley. Does he get a chance to showcase himself last September and make the ALDS roster with a 28-man/14-pitcher roster? Almost certainly not. He was behind too many other guys. It’s not hyperbole to say last year’s September call-up changed Tarpley’s career outlook. Many others won’t get the same opportunity starting next season. Why not at least push for a 30-man or 32-man roster in September? I can’t believe the MLBPA went for this.

8. I don’t like the three-batter minimum for pitchers. I also think it’ll be one of those things we barely notice after a while. One or two-batter relief specialists are already being phased out, plus teams can still change pitchers after only one or two batters following the end of an inning. My preference would be letting teams use their rosters however they want. Let them position their defenders anywhere on the field, use as any pitchers as they deem necessary, whatever. I think creativity is good for the game overall. This rule goes against that. I do think the three-batter minimum restores some value to driving up the pitch count. I mean, working the count is always good, though it has lost some value recently because the game is so bullpen heavy and so many starters are only going through the lineup twice regardless of pitch count. Getting a starter to 50 pitches after two innings isn’t a big deal when his limit is 18 batters no matter what, you know? Now, with the three-batter minimum, if you can push a reliever to 25-30 pitches in an outing, it could impact his availability the next day. The opposing club might not want to send him back out there knowing he’ll have to face at least three batters again. I suppose you could use that reliever to get one out to end an inning on the second of back-to-back days, though you kinda have to plan for things to go haywire and that reliever having to say in to face three batters, right? This is where I think the three-batter minimum will have the most impact. Using guys on back-to-back or even back-to-back-to-back days. It makes a deep bullpen that much more important. Back-to-backs and back-to-back-to-backs figure to decline some league-wide. (It’s worth noting the three-batter minimum is being unilaterally implemented by commissioner Rob Manfred. The MLBPA didn’t agree to this.)

9. The Mike Trout extension reminded me of something I meant to write weeks ago but never did: Why didn’t the Yankees even fake interest in Bryce Harper? They didn’t even try to drive up the price for other clubs. They’ve done that in the past. Despite having no interest in signing him, Brian Cashman had dinner with Carl Crawford years ago to get other teams (i.e. the Red Sox) to up their bid. I get that the White Sox were the only American League team pursuing Harper, but still. Driving up the price for the Phillies, Dodgers, or Giants means a potential World Series opponent would have less money available to spend on other players down the road, in theory. The same applies to Manny Machado as well, though at least the Yankees were somewhat involved in Machado bidding. With Harper, it was nothing. My theory is the Yankees knew they were passing on him from the start and decided the inevitable headaches and bad PR that would come with him signing elsewhere wasn’t worth it. Getting involved, getting an (already grouchy?) fan base’s hopes up, then Harper going elsewhere wouldn’t have gone over well. It would’ve been a distraction — Cashman and Aaron Boone certainly would have been asked about what would’ve looked like a sincere but failed Harper pursuit, and probably the players as well — and the Yankees don’t need anything like that. I’m not sure why else the Yankees would have been so out of the Harper race. They brokered the Zack Britton signing with Scott Boras, so it’s not like they have a bad relationship. I dunno. Just weird is all. I expected the Yankees to at least fake interest in Harper to make life difficult for the other teams pursuing him. Didn’t happen.

The Yankees should follow the Blue Jays’ lead and give their minor leaguers a raise

March 19, 2019 by Mike

Over the weekend Emily Waldon and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Blue Jays are planning to give their minor leaguers a substantial raise this season, with John Lott (subs. req’d) saying the individual raises will fall between 40% and 56% depending on the player’s level. For what it’s worth, Jeff Passan hears MLB is open to sweeping quality of life improvements in the minors.

“It puts us right now up at the top of the scale in the industry,” said Blue Jays president of baseball operations Ben Cherington. “… We hope that it allows our players to have the freedom and comfort to make some good choices, whether it’s where to live, where to eat, etc. We just feel like it’s consistent with our values of trying to be a player-centered organization and give them every resource possible to be at their best.”

Last year MLB successfully lobbied Congress to pass the shamefully named “Save America’s Pastime Act,” which allows them to continue paying minor leaguers below minimum wage. MLB argues minor leaguers are seasonal employees (similar to extra cashiers around the holidays) and that it would be impossible to track hours. These are the minor league minimum salaries, via Waldon (subs. req’d):

Triple-A: $2,150 per month
Double-A: $1,700 per month
Single-A: $1,160 to $1,500 per month

Players do not get paid in Spring Training — Ted Berg recently wrote a great article on minor league catchers, who have huge spring workloads and don’t get paid — and they only get $25 or so per diem on the road during the season. A few years ago Ben Badler found that 40% of minor leaguers received no more than $10,000 as their amateur signing bonus. That’s a lot of minor leaguers barely making ends meet during the season.

Minor leaguers are exploited, clearly. Have been for a long time. They are not playing a game for a living. They are skilled workers in an industry that rakes in over $10 billion in annual revenues. Minor leaguers are appallingly underpaid. The MLBPA is no help either. They’ve sold minor leaguers out (i.e. draft and international bonus pools) because their priority is their union members.

The hope is other teams will follow the Blue Jays’ lead and increase their minor league pay. Hopefully Passan’s report means sweeping action is forthcoming. We’ll find out soon enough. Anyway, as the headline says, I think the Yankees should raise minor league salaries like Toronto and, honestly, it’s a shame they didn’t give out those raises first. Shouldn’t the game’s most iconic franchise be an industry leader in this regard?

I fully acknowledge I have no idea what the Yankees pay their minor leaguers. They pay upper level minor league free agents well. I know that much. I feel like, if they were at the top of the pay scale for lower level non-40-man roster guys, we’d have found out by now. The Yankees’ minor league facilities are very good — the minor league complex in Tampa was renovated recently and is state of the art — and that is an obvious plus. At the ballpark, they give their players the tools to develop and succeed.

Still, there’s no substitute for putting more money in someone’s pocket. More pay not only means better living arrangements and better meals (two things that could have a direct impact on a player’s development), it also makes you a more attractive destination for free agents and could help you retain players. The benefits are potentially enormous. This would be an investment in the players and in the future of the organization.

For now, the Blue Jays are doing a good thing and giving poorly paid minor leaguers a raise. With any luck, the rest of baseball will following along and minor leaguers can collectively get above the poverty line. The Yankees have great minor league facilities and they pay upper level minor league free agents well. Those guys, as well as big bonus signees, only represent a small percentage of players in the minors. Paying minor leaguers better helps everyone.

Thoughts following the last Grapefruit League off-day

March 12, 2019 by Mike

The Grapefruit League season is halfway complete. More than halfway complete, really. The Yankees have played 16 of their 32 exhibition games and had another rained out, so there are only 15 spring games to go. Thirteen of those 15 games will be televised live. Hooray for that. Anyway, I have some thoughts on the current state of Yankees affairs, so let’s get to ’em.

1. One Spring Training performance that matters: Clint Frazier is 4-for-25 (.160) with two extra-base hits (both doubles) and eight strikeouts. The crummy 30 plate appearance showing does not mean Frazier is a bust or that his career outlook has changed. Guys go 4-for-25 all the time. In Frazier’s case, he needed a monster spring to have any chance at making the Opening Day roster. Struggling through camp isn’t going to land him the final bench spot over Tyler Wade, who can play pretty much everywhere and is having the superior Grapefruit League season. An injury could still land Frazier on the Opening Day roster. (Aaron Hicks’ back thing is lingering.) That’s pretty much his only path to a roster spot now. Missing all that time last year with the concussion and post-concussion issues meant it was always likely Frazier would wind up in Triple-A to get regular at-bats (Aaron Boone indicated as much over the weekend), and he hasn’t done anything this spring to change the team’s mind. Seventy-three days in the minors pushes Frazier’s free agency back from the 2023-24 offseason to the 2024-25 offseason. I don’t think the Yankees are planning to game his service time because their singular focus right now is winning the World Series, and if they need Frazier in the big leagues, they’re going to call him up. I also don’t think it’s crazy to think Frazier could sit in the minors until mid-June before getting a chance to platoon (or replace) Brett Gardner in left field. We’ll see. For now, Frazier needed a strong Spring Training to make the Opening Day roster, and it hasn’t happened. Most spring performances don’t matter. This one did.

2. Speaking of the Hicks injury, it’s worrisome the back stiffness/soreness/whatever they’re calling it today has continued to linger, though Dan Martin reports Hicks took swings from both sides of the plate and played catch Sunday, so it’s not like he’s shut down completely. I have to think the Yankees are playing it safe with Opening Day still more than two weeks away. Still, it would be nice to get Hicks back out on the field soon so he can get his timing down and all that. Anyway, the Yankees do not have much center field depth right now. Gardner is the obvious candidate to play center field should Hicks miss time during the regular season — the Hicks injury might be Frazier’s only path to an Opening Day roster spot right now — though I’m not sure playing 35-year-old Brett Gardner in center field full-time is a good idea. That’s a good way to wear him down. Aaron Judge could play center here and there, but I don’t think the Yankees want to do that regularly. Frazier? Nah. Tyler Wade? Probably not. He’s played five different positions this spring and none are center field. (I have to think they’ll throw him out there at some point should Hicks remain sidelined.) A trade? Eh, that’s not likely. The March trade market usually doesn’t have much to offer. Maybe the Diamondbacks would part with Jarrod Dyson after the Adam Jones signing, but Dyson has been nursing an oblique injury this spring and may not be ready for Opening Day himself. That doesn’t solve the center field problem should Hicks miss time. Hopefully yesterday’s doctor appointment went well and Hicks will begin ramping up his workouts and return to game action soon. If this thing continues to linger, the Yankees will have to figure out something in center field, because I don’t think Gardner can play out there every single day at this point of his career.

3. The most exciting player in camp so far? Estevan Florial! It’s always fun when the top prospect shines in Spring Training. Florial is hitting .333/.385/.542 with two doubles, one home run, and four stolen bases through 26 plate appearances. (For what it’s worth, Baseball-Reference’s opponent quality metric says Florial has faced mostly Double-A caliber pitching this spring.) Those 26 plate appearances are fourth most on the team behind Clint Frazier (30), Greg Bird (28), and Tyler Wade (27) — Hicksie’s back issue surely led to Florial getting more playing time than expected — and that home run he hit last week was awfully impressive. He turned around a 95 mph (on the television radar gun) fastball and drove it the other way over the left-center field wall.

“I mean, wow. It’s a short list of people that can hit a ball like that. I told that to Reggie Jackson on the bench. He was quick to tell me that he was one of those,” Aaron Boone said after the game. Florial’s big Spring Training doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things — is he a better prospect now that he was three weeks ago? are teams changing their short and long-term evaluations of him based on 26 Grapefruit League plate appearances? nope — but it is certainly more fun to watch than the top prospect not doing much of anything. Florial played 75 games with High-A Tampa around the wrist injury last year and wasn’t very good, so I think he’ll return to that level to begin this season, with a quick promotion to Double-A Trenton in the cards should he come out of the gate strong. It’s been a good spring for him so far. It’s always a blast when the kids play well in Spring Training.

4. The Danny Farquhar comeback is the feel-good story of the spring. That he’s made it back on to a big league field less than a year after battling a life-threatening brain hemorrhage is truly remarkable. He’s getting cheered on the road and that’s pretty cool. As for his Spring Training performance, it has not been good (2 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 0 K), and he didn’t look like a Major League pitcher in his lone televised outing. The fastball was 88-89 mph and all over the place, and the offspeed pitches weren’t fooling anyone. That is totally understandable after the guy missed basically the entire 2018 season and nearly died. Farquhar is still working his way back into baseball shape and any slim chance he had at making the Opening Day roster is gone. He doesn’t look ready for it. “Physically, I feel great. The butterflies are gone. I just think it’s the kinks of not being in competition for ten months. The game speeds up as opposed to sim games or live BP. I think more repetition will get me more comfortable,” Farquhar said to Randy Miller over the weekend. Based on the little we’ve seen, I think the Yankees are going to hold him back in Tampa and have him continue to build strength and work to regain form in Extended Spring Training rather than assign him to Triple-A Scranton on Opening Day. It might only take a few weeks. He could be with the RailRiders before the end of April. Given the state of the bullpen, it’ll take injuries (plural) or unexpected poor performances (also plural) for Farquhar to earn a call-up to the big leagues this year. Who knows though. David Hale and George Kontos managed to appear in games for the 2018 Yankees. For now, it’s wonderful to see Farquhar back on the field after what he went through last year. It’s also clear he has a long way to go before helping the Yankees.

5. The Yankees still have 58 players in big league camp based on my unofficial count and that seems like an awful lot with two weeks and two days to go until Opening Day. I reckon we’re going to see a big round of cuts soon. The Yankees still have seven catchers in camp and that’s probably two or three too many at this point. Kellin Deglan, Jorge Saez, and Francisco Diaz are the obvious candidates to be sent to minor league camp with Kyle Higashioka and Ryan Lavarnway sticking around to support Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine. The big leaguers are going to start playing more and more these next two weeks, which means kids like Florial, Thairo Estrada, Kyle Holder, and Trey Amburgey have to go to minor league camp soon to ensure everyone gets the at-bats they need to get ready for the season. They can’t continue to get two at-bats every other day, you know? Eventually depth arms like Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Cale Coshow, Danny Coulombe, and Raynel Espinal will be sent out as well. The Yankees will play their final exhibition game two weeks from yesterday. There are only so many innings and at-bats remaining and 58 players in camp can’t last much longer. My guess is that number will be reduced to 40-something by the weekend and 30-something by the middle of next week.

6. The Jose Leclerc extension sets the market for a Chad Green extension, right? Leclerc had an unreal 2018 season (1.56 ERA and 1.90 FIP in 57.2 innings) and last week the Rangers gave him four years and $14.75M guaranteed, with two club options that could push the total value to $27M across six years. Green and Leclerc both arrived in the big leagues for good in 2017 and they have almost exactly the same amount of service time. Green’s 2017-18 numbers are a bit better though:

	Service Time	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
Green	2.050	144.2	2.18	2.33	35.8%	5.8%	+5.0
Leclerc	2.041	103.1	2.61	3.04	35.2%	15.4%	+3.2

Green has faced 128 more batters than Leclerc the last two years and issued 33 fewer walks, but, to be fair to Leclerc, he cut his walk rate from 20.0% last year to 11.2% this year. That’s progress. Also, he took over as Texas’ closer late last year and will presumably keep the job going forward. Anyway, I think the Leclerc deal is a good framework for Green. Non-closing relievers usually don’t make much through arbitration. Dellin Betances has been as good as any reliever in baseball the last five years and he’ll make $15.7325M during the four-year stretch covered by Leclerc’s contract (one pre-arbitration year and three arbitration years). Four guaranteed years at $14.75M seems like a pretty good deal for Green, who was not a high draft pick and didn’t get a large signing bonus ($100,000 as an 11th round pick). He is a soon-to-be 28-year-old middle reliever still waiting for his first big baseball payday. He’s a very good middle reliever, but still a middle reliever with no real shot at save chances in the near future, and that typically doesn’t pay all that well. For Green, a four-year deal at $14.75M would lock in a life-changing payday and give him security in a role that generally isn’t very secure. For the Yankees, they’d buy out his four remaining team control years at $3.6875M annually, which is a drop in the bucket and wouldn’t stop them from doing anything else if it goes wrong. The real prize is those two club option years. Good relievers are getting $9M per year and more in free agency. Two option years at $6M or so like Leclerc would be a real steal down the line. Even though the Leclerc deal provides a good framework for a Green extension, my hunch is the Yankees will go year-to-year with Green because, frankly, it’s not worth the risk. His arbitration raises won’t be huge and the Yankees would retain the ability to non-tender him and walk away with no strings attached should things go wrong. Harsh, but that’s the business.

7. Royals catcher Salvador Perez needed Tommy John surgery last week and will miss the season. It’s a bummer for him and Royals fans but ultimately inconsequential for a Royals team that won’t contend. I guess the silver lining is it saves a year’s worth of wear-and-tear on Perez’s legs — his 6,434.2 innings caught since 2013 are second most in baseball behind Yadier Molina (6,558.1) — during a season in which Kansas City isn’t expected to do much. Anyway, I bring this up because wow does the American League catching picture stink. As bad as Gary Sanchez was last season, he is easily the best catcher in the league now that Perez is out. Here are the top five AL catchers based on ZiPS projected 2019 WAR:

Gary Sanchez, Yankees: +3.1 WAR
(Salvador Perez, Royals: +3.1 WAR)
Willians Astudillo, Twins: +2.4 WAR
Danny Jansen, Blue Jays: +2.0 WAR
Robinson Chirinos, Astros: +1.6 WAR
Mike Zunino, Rays: +1.5 WAR

Astudillo is a utility guy more than a catcher — he appeared behind the plate 55 times in 108 games between Triple-A and MLB last year — and he wasn’t even a lock to make the Opening Day roster prior to Miguel Sano’s recent injury. The Twins are going with Jason Castro (projected +1.3 WAR) and Mitch Garver (projected +1.1 WAR) behind the plate. Point is, the current AL catching crop is pretty terrible and that is especially true with Perez set to miss the entire season. Sanchez doesn’t need to rebound all the way back to his 2016-17 level for the Yankees to have a clear advantage behind the plate in pretty much every game they play this season. If he does go back to 2016-17 Sanchez, forget it, he’ll be the best catcher in the league and it won’t even be close. That would’ve been the case even with a healthy Perez though. I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I guess I just wanted to point out how awful the catching situation is in the American League right now. There seem to be a lot of Yankees fans out there who take having a catcher as talented as Sanchez for granted. Go look at what the rest of the league is working with then get back to me.

8. The Yankees had a very active offseason, pretty clearly the most active among American League contenders, and you know what’s gone mostly overlooked? They didn’t lose much from last year’s team. The only significant loss is David Robertson. Sonny Gray threw 130.1 innings that weren’t all that good, and Neil Walker, despite being a total pro and providing some big hits, was largely ineffective as a part-timer. Didi Gregorius will miss half the season or so and that’s a loss, though he’s expected back at some point. Robertson is the only player who made an impact for the 2018 Yankees that won’t be with the 2019 Yankees, and he’s been adequately replaced (maybe even improved upon) by Adam Ottavino. Sometimes it can be so easy to get caught up in the new additions that you lose sight of the players who left. The Dodgers, for example, added A.J. Pollock, which is a nice pickup. They also lost Yasmani Grandal to free agency and traded away Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp (and Kyle Farmer) in a deal that netted them zero MLB pieces. That all seems like a net negative for a team that won 92 games last year and had to play a Game 163 tiebreaker to win the NL West title. The Yankees lost Robertson, Gray, and Walker and replaced them with Ottavino, James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu, and full seasons of J.A. Happ and Zack Britton. That’s a clear upgrade. The Yankees started with a very good core, lost only one major contributor, then added a bunch. Sounds good to me.

Thoughts after Luis Severino gets shut down two weeks with a shoulder injury

March 6, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees suffered their first notable Spring Training injury yesterday afternoon. Luis Severino was a late scratch from his debut Grapefruit League start with what is being called rotator cuff inflammation. He received a cortisone injection and anti-inflammatories, and will be shut down two weeks. Severino is “highly unlikely” to be ready for Opening Day, Aaron Boone said. I mean, duh. Anyway, I have some thoughts on this, so let’s get to ’em.

1. Rotator cuff inflammation is about the best possible news in this situation. The Yankees say the MRI looked good, which I take to mean there’s no structural damage, so that’s reassuring. That said, inflammation is not a diagnosis. It’s a symptom. It’s like saying Severino has a runny nose without mentioning he has the flu. There’s something in his shoulder causing the inflammation. The range of possible outcomes with shoulder inflammation is wide. It could truly be a two-week thing and Severino comes back good as new. Or it could linger all season and he’s never quite himself. Brewers righty Zach Davies was put on the disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation last May and was shut down ten days. Ten days turned into two weeks, two weeks turned into a month, a month turned into six weeks, on and on it went. Davies wasn’t ready to return to the Brewers until mid-August and, when he did return, he was nowhere near as effective as he had been previously. All things considered, I’ll take “rotator cuff inflammation and shut down two weeks” over something like a strain. This definitely has the potential to be something more serious than the two-week timetable would lead you to believe. Shoulders are unpredictable.

2. I am happy Severino spoke up about the injury — you’d be surprised how many guys try to pitch through aches and pains, even in Spring Training — and I am certain the Yankees will be cautious with him. He turned only 25 last month and he’s one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and the Yankees just committed to him long-term with a $40M contract. In this unforgiving and hyper-analytic era where players are treated more as commodities than people, Severino is an investment, and the Yankees are going to protect that investment. For argument’s sake though, let’s say Severino will be a-okay after two weeks and can start a throwing program. That probably puts him on track to return sometime in late April, or even early May. He was scheduled to make his spring debut yesterday and won’t be able to pick up right where he left off, you know? Severino will start by playing catch, then he’ll throw in the bullpen, then he’ll face some hitters in a simulated game, then he’ll start pitching in minor league rehab games to get stretched out. The best case scenario likely puts Severino on track to begin pitching in rehab games the second week of April or thereabouts. Three or four rehab starts to get ready puts his return at the end of April, assuming no setbacks or delays. The everything goes right scenario has Severino missing the first month of the regular season. Yuck. For all intents and purposes, Severino will have to restart Spring Training once he’s deemed healthy.

3. Boone said Severino felt something after throwing one specific pitch during his warm-ups yesterday. This isn’t something he’s felt for a while that suddenly got worse. Severino recently admitted he felt fatigued down the stretch last year — “When you are at the finish line and you feel like you need a little bit more than five days to be ready, you know that something’s going on,” he said — and I can’t help but wonder how much that contributed to this injury, if at all. As I noted in our season review post, Severino’s fastball velocity and slider spin rate were down late last year, and his command slipped as well. I’m convinced the pitch-tipping was only like 5% of the problem despite getting 100% of the attention. There were real red flags last year. The Yankees have put Severino through two physicals since the end of last season (his end-of-season physical and start-of-spring physical), and you can be sure his medicals were scrutinized before they gave him that $40M contract. Also, Gary Sanchez told Marly Rivera that Severino was throwing the ball very well in his bullpen sessions this spring. “After that bullpen, give him the ball every five days. He’s ready,” Gary said recently. Maybe whatever was wrong late last year contributed to this injury. It’s certainly possible. It seems to me this is something that just happened yesterday though. Pitchers get hurt, man. It’s part of the game.

4. The calls for Dallas Keuchel were inevitable and are completely understandable. The “this guy got hurt, so go sign the best free agent at his position to replace him” line of thinking has been around since the dawn of free agency. I would be absolutely shocked if the Yankees went out and signed Keuchel though. That’s just not how they operate nowadays. The Yankees were not connected to Keuchel at all this winter — I like to think I do a good job rounding up hot stove rumors here, and the most recent post in our Keuchel archive is from the 2017 ALCS — which makes sense because he is not their type. They go for power pitchers and/or pitchers on short-term contracts these days. Keuchel is neither of those things. He’s a finesse pitch-to-contact guy who’s ground ball and strikeout rates are heading in the wrong direction, and, call it a hunch, but something tells me Scott Boras won’t be willing to cut the Yankees a break on a short-term Keuchel deal in the wake of the Severino injury. (It would aggravate me to no end if the Yankees signed Keuchel long-term after declining to go long-term for Patrick Corbin, but I digress.) Like it or not, the Yankees have a payroll limit and they’ve shown us they won’t exceed it. Signing Keuchel means blowing up that payroll plan and exceeding the $226M second luxury tax threshold. Cot’s has the luxury tax payroll at $222.4M right now. The first $3.6M the Yankees give Keuchel (or anyone, for that matter) would equal $4.32M total thanks to the luxury tax. Every $1 after that is $1.32. It is real money and it matters to the Yankees. They’ve made that clear. I want absolutely nothing to do with Keuchel long-term. At 31, he pitches like I want a 38-year-old to pitch after he loses his stuff. I’m not betting on a smooth decline. On a hypothetical one-year deal, even a very expensive one-year deal ($30M?), yes, absolutely the Yankees should sign Keuchel now that Severino’s hurt and the start of the CC Sabathia’s season is being delayed. I just don’t see that happening. I don’t see Keuchel and Boras taking a one-year deal and I don’t see the Yankees going long-term. The Yankees have set their payroll and Keuchel is a fit only because he’s available, not because he does things the Yankees value (throw hard, spin the ball, miss bats, etc.).

5. I don’t think Keuchel is a realistic possibility, though I do believe the Yankees are going to hunker down and look for additional rotation depth now. Moreso than usual, I mean. (They’re always looking.) Jordan Montgomery is on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab but is still so far away — Montgomery recently said he’s looking to return soon after the All-Star break — that the Yankees couldn’t stand pat and wait for him to come save the day. The current crop of unsigned free agent starters absolutely stinks beyond Keuchel and the thoroughly uninspiring Gio Gonzalez. MLBTR has eight starters on their unsigned free agents list. I rank them:

Dallas Keuchel
Gio Gonzalez
Edwin Jackson
James Shields
Yovani Gallardo
Miguel Gonzalez
Chris Tillman
Bartolo Colon

How many of those dudes will actually throw a pitch in the big leagues this season? Keuchel and Gonzalez will, for sure. Eventually they’re going to sign. Pretty decent chance that’s it though. The other guys might be forced into retirement. Aaron Brooks (Athletics), Matt Koch (Diamondbacks), and Matt Wisler (Reds) are out of minor league options and on the roster bubble, so maybe one of them shakes loose before Opening Day. Point is: Yikes. There is not much pitching out there at all. I expect the Yankees to pursue a lower cost depth arm rather than a big money guy like Keuchel, or even a medium money guy like Gonzalez. Someone like Jackson (eh) or Shields (blah) on a “we’ll bring you to camp, and if we like what we see, we’ll consider adding you to the roster” minor league contract a la Ervin Santana and the White Sox strikes me as the most likely outcome here. (Would any of these guys even be ready to pitch come Opening Day? Or are we looking at a mid-April arrival?)

6. As for their internal rotation options, the Yankees have some pretty lively arms available in Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Saying the Yankees lack rotation depth is almost Pavlovian these days. (“What is the Yankees’ biggest weakness?” “Rotation depth. Now where’s my treat?”) No team has an established Major League starter stashed away as their sixth guy and no worthwhile free agent is signing with a team knowing he is at best sixth on the rotation depth chart. That’s just now how it works. New York’s rotation depth chart lines up something like this:

Luis Severino (will miss Opening Day)
James Paxton
Masahiro Tanaka
J.A. Happ
CC Sabathia (will miss Opening Day)
Luis Cessa
Domingo German
Jonathan Loaisiga
Chance Adams
Mike King (will miss Opening Day)

We could ague about the exact order all day. Clearly though, the top five is the top five and the next five is the next five. Remember when the Yankees had to turn to guys like Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner and Chase Whitley as depth starters? Yeah, I feel way better about having dudes like Cessa and German and Loaisiga as depth. Younger guys who can throw a fastball by a hitter and break off some quality secondary pitches. The early season schedule is very favorable — the Yankees play 16 of their first 21 games against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals — and I say use an opener for Cessa or German or Loaisiga. Unless the Yankees splurge for Keuchel or Gonzalez, I’d stick with the in-house youngsters over a dude at the end of the line like Shields or Gallardo. (I totally get signing someone like that for added depth. I just don’t see them as better options than what the Yankees have now.)

7. Alright, so with Severino slated to miss the start of the season, who gets the ceremonial Opening Day start? Giving CC Sabathia one last Opening Day start in his farewell season would’ve been cool as hell — Sabathia is tied for tenth all-time with eleven career Opening Day starts — but alas, that won’t happen. He won’t be ready for the start of the season either. That leaves three candidates: J.A. Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton. Paxton has never started an Opening Day — Felix Hernandez has started the last ten Opening Days for the Mariners — and I’m not sure the Yankees would put that on the new guy. Happ made his first career Opening Day start last year (remember this?) and Tanaka started three straight Opening Days for the Yankees from 2015-17. Tanaka’s probably the safest pick. He’s done it before, so the Yankees could defer to the veteran and no one would think twice about it or make too much of it. Ultimately, the Opening Day starter and the Opening Day rotation order doesn’t mean much. Opening Day doesn’t have any added importance in the grand scheme of things. It is one of 162, and it usually doesn’t take long for weather and whatnot to throw the rotation order out of whack. This is begging for a poll, so:

Who should start Opening Day 2019?

How recent history led the Yankees to avoid Bryce Harper and Manny Machado

February 27, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Like it or not, the Yankees spent modestly this winter.

While two big fish sat in free agency, the Bombers instead looked for lesser improvements. Still, the Yankees came away with arguably the best starter and reliever who changed teams this offseason while retaining three pitchers, Brett Gardner and adding two infielders.

For many fans and observers, that offseason wasn’t enough. The Yankees, after all, are the richest team in baseball and could have easily made room for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. You can just imagine what either hitter would look like next to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The common complaint was that if you’re not going to spend on either Harper or Machado, why did the team get under the luxury tax?

However, when one looks back at the last time the Yankees spent big in free agency, there was a much more pressing need. Let’s take a look back at the 2013-14 offseason for a second.

The 2013 Yankees were as much of a disaster as an 85-win team can be, at least in New York. Injuries ran roughshod through the roster, claiming Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Michael Pineda. The big money starter, CC Sabathia, sported a 4.78 ERA and was well-below league-average.

To summarize how bad it got, look at the team’s Baseball Reference page. Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix, late-career Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki to go with 36-year-old Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner each played in more than half the Yankees’ games. Yikes.

The team was set to get worse in the offseason. Alex Rodriguez was suspended for all of the 2014 season, giving New York more spending flexibility but one fewer big bat. Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte were retiring and Robinson Cano, one of just two above-average regulars, left for the greener pastures (at least in terms of dollars) of Seattle. There was no Judge or Luis Severino coming through the Minors to save the day.

This was also right at the time of the Yankees’ first attempt to evade the luxury tax in what was known as Plan 189 around these parts. The Steinbrenners were faced with the choice of getting under the tax and abandoning a realistic playoff chase or spending their way to a competitive-looking roster. This was before Brian Cashman was able to convince ownership to sell off parts and said owners chose to remain competitive.

Thus, the team went hard, eschewing Cano and signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann early in free agency. With a clear need still present in the rotation, Cashman got sign-off to pursue Masahiro Tanaka and acquired the righty in January 2014.

It’s easy to say that this was short-sighted with the aging roster and Ellsbury’s onerous contract. However, while one can question the methods, the intent was clear.

Back to the present day, the roster has shed the ancient appearance for a youthful glee as the Yankees returned to prominence. That ultimately was a large part of the plan after the 2016 trade deadline, turning to a young, sustainable core.

However, this core arrived well ahead of schedule. Just think back to Spring Training 2017. Aarons Judge and Hicks had combined for -0.7 WAR the prior season while Severino failed in his first go-around as a starter. The team traded two of its most prolific hitters, Beltran and McCann, as “transition” hung in the air as the buzzword. In other words, expect a worse product in the short term.

From there, Hicks, Judge and Severino turned into All-Star caliber players while Stanton fell into the Yankees’ laps. The team has won 191 games over the last two years and made it within a game of the World Series. Not a championship, but certainly poised to reach that height.

Looking at it from ownership’s perspective, the team has the infield set for years behind Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres. The outfield has Hicks, Judge and Stanton while Brett Gardner and Troy Tulowitzki serve as stopgaps for Gregorius and Clint Frazier. The Bombers are already on the cusp of the World Series.

So Yankees chose to leave very good alone instead of go for standout greatness as no team pushed their postseason spot. Likely, if Judge, Sevy and others don’t turn into stars right away and reach the ALCS in 2017 — if 2018 looks more like 2013 than 2017 — the front office views Harper or Machado (or both) as necessities rather than luxuries.

The media has occasionally pointed to Ellsbury’s contract as a reason the Yankees or other teams would be hesitant to give out big contracts, but that simply doesn’t apply to the Bombers. This is the team that traded for A-Rod and Stanton’s record deals while giving Rodriguez and Sabathia top-of-the-market contracts, all while giving long-term deals to Jeter, Teixeira and so on. They’ve stomached bad deals and they’ve thrived with great ones.

The team now turns to its in-house options as well as their fine additions with Paxton and Ottavino. The team relies heavily upon Didi’s recovery, avoiding regression from Andujar and a five-man rotation with plenty of injury risk. Still, the talent and promise in the Bronx is palpable even without Machado and Harper.

Whether they regret that comfortable feeling of having essentially reached the postseason in March will play out as it may, but it’s hard to deny that compared to 2013-14, or even 2008-09, there wasn’t the pressing need. Harper or Machado wouldn’t have guaranteed the Yankees would surpass Boston or Houston and ultimately, that opportunity cost spelled the difference between either player donning pinstripes and our2 current reality.

Thoughts four games into the Grapefruit League season

February 27, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees are three games and one rainout into their Grapefruit League season and, so far, no one has gotten hurt. That’s the most important thing. It’s good to have baseball back. Baseball is much more fun to talk about than the hot stove. Here are some thoughts on the first few spring games.

1. It was one game and only a handful of innings, I know, but Troy Tulowitzki’s mobility at shortstop was pleasantly surprising. I’m not focused too much on the bat right now — seeing him drive an outside pitch into the Tampa short porch was certainly cool — because even the game’s best hitters are still working to find their swing in late-February, and Tulowitzki hasn’t played in so long that some level of rust is inevitable. The offensive numbers will be whatever. I’m not sweating them. We’ve been hearing Tulowitzki looks great during infield workouts for weeks now though, basically since the Yankees signed him, and that’s something we should see right away. Sure enough, Tulowitzki did this …

… and made several other nice plays as well. Nothing incredibly difficult, but those are the plays I was hoping to see Tulowitzki make. The guy is coming off an ankle injury and dual heel surgeries, plus he’s 34 and normal age-related decline has to be a consideration, so a lack of range and fluidity in the field wouldn’t have been the most shocking thing in the world. Instead, Tulowitzki moved around well. I was pleasantly surprised. Will it last? Who knows. Moving around the infield might not be so easy once the back-to-back-to-back days in the hot weather and the wear-and-tear begins to add up. For now, Tulowitzki looks good in the field, which I guess qualifies as a win. I am going to need to see a lot more — a lot more — before buying in. The defense (and dinger) made Monday’s game an overwhelmingly positive first impression though.

2. Luis Severino will throw a simulated game tomorrow and make his Grapefruit League debut early next week, likely Monday or Tuesday. The Yankees have taken it easy on Severino this spring, which makes sense given his age (25), his workload the last two years (407.2 innings, postseason included), and the fact the Yankees just signed him to a four-year extension. This is an arm worth protecting. “When you are at the finish line and you feel like you need a little bit more than five days to be ready, you know that something’s going on,” said Severino to Coley Harvey two weeks ago, referring to being fatigued late last year. So yeah, it’s smart to ease him into things. Anyway, Severino making his Grapefruit League debut Monday or Tuesday lines him up perfectly to start Opening Day. He’d make four spring starts with extra rest between each of them. The current spring rotation schedule lines up James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A. Happ to follow Severino in that order. That’s kinda what I’ve assumed the rotation order would be all winter. The Yankees haven’t announced the Opening Day rotation order yet because almost no team announces their Opening Day rotation order in February. Generally speaking though, it’s easy to pick up on the pitching plan early in the camp. The Yankees have Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ lined up as their first four starting pitchers for the regular season at this moment. Things can of course change over the next few weeks, but there you go. That’s the tentatively scheduled regular season rotation order.

3. Didn’t expect to see Tyler Wade flash some opposite field power this spring. He doubled twice to left field Sunday and I thought both had a chance to carry over the fence. Here’s the first one and here’s the second one. They came against actual big leaguers Tyler Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos too. Wade hitting two balls the other way with authority is notable. Here’s his 2013-18 minor league spray chart:

I count maybe a dozen balls hit deep to left field and left-center field in the six years worth of batted balls in that spray chart. Then two in two innings, against big leaguers? Even in Spring Training, I can’t say I saw that coming. During Monday’s broadcast Jack Curry said vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring told him the Yankees see Wade as a “starting player in the Major Leagues for a contending team.” Maybe that’s just a team official talking up his own player — the Yankees did sign two veteran infielders to push Wade down the depth chart this offseason, after all — and, even if it’s not, the Yankees don’t have a starting spot for Wade. I think he’s the favorite to get the final bench spot because he can run like hell and play both the infield and outfield, which are good traits for the 12th and final position player on the 25-man roster. To me, Wade needs a fresh start with a new team. He is capital-B Blocked with the Yankees and, unless they let Didi Gregorius walk and move Miguel Andujar to first base (or left field), there is no obvious starting spot for Wade going forward. A fresh start with a new team is the best thing for him. The Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox stand out as clubs that could roll the dice and be patient while a young middle infielder finds his way at the MLB level. For the Yankees, hanging on to Wade as a depth utility guy who can be shuttled up and down makes all the sense in the world. Wade will play the entire 2019 season at age 24 and maybe those two opposite field doubles are a sign the bat is coming around. Almost certainly not, but hey, who knows. I didn’t expect to see him drive the ball the other way like that, that’s for sure.

4. Greg Bird looks noticeably thicker this spring. He looks stronger throughout his chest and arms. Aaron Boone said Bird added 20 pounds of “good weight” over the winter — “Not super intentional, I ate and worked out. After the New Year I started lifting. If I am heavier and can move, I know I am in a good place,” said Bird to George King a few days ago — and you can see it. In theory, a little more upper body strength could help Bird get his bat through the zone quicker, which was a major issue last year. It’s not like he’s out there with a bodybuilder’s physique. He didn’t bulk up so much that his quickness and agility will suffer. All he did was add a little muscle and strength, which countless players do each offseason. In Bird’s case, it’s easy to see. I’ve been doing this long enough to know these “best shape of his life” stories are little more than early spring filler that almost always amount to nothing. He’ll have to do a lot more than add some weight and look stronger to win a roster spot — Bird slammed an opposite field double in the Grapefruit League opener only to have Luke Voit show him up with a long home run onto the roof of the concession stand the next day — but I see this as a good thing. His exit velocity (89.7 mph in 2017 and 86.9 mph in 2018) and hard-hit rate (41.1% in 2017 and 33.3% in 2018) were both way down last year. The added strength could help get Bird back on track. I hope it will, anyway.

5. Random minor leaguer who stood out to me: Daniel Alvarez. The 22-year-old right-hander threw scoreless seventh and eighth innings Sunday. Yes, he was facing minor leaguers, but the results are whatever. More importantly, the stuff looked good. Hitters didn’t get good wood on the fastball, the breaking ball looked spiffy, and Alvarez did a good job hitting the mitt for late-February.

Last season Alvarez threw 34.2 innings with a 1.30 ERA (1.66 FIP) and excellent strikeout (39.3%) and walk (5.9%) rates with Short Season Staten Island and Low-A Charleston. The Yankees signed him as an older international amateur a few years ago and he spun his wheels as a starter the last few seasons. They moved him to the bullpen full-time last year, his stuff ticked up a bit, and he took off. Chances are there’s nothing here and Alvarez is an organizational arm. Every once in a while one of these late-blooming starter-to-reliever conversion guys pitches his way to the big leagues though. Stephen Tarpley did it. Gio Gallegos did it as well. The late innings of early Spring Training games are filling with pitchers who are so obviously not big league caliber and maybe never will be. Alvarez is someone who stood out early and made me say “huh, maybe there’s something here.” I hope to see him come up from minor league camp to pitch at least one more time this spring, but I won’t hold my breath.

6. What’s everyone think about the pitch clock so far? You can barely even tell it’s in use, right? I mean, the clock itself is visible behind the plate at George M. Steinbrenner Field …

… but it’s not intrusive, and I imagine the same will be true at Yankee Stadium and big league parks. It’s good to have that information on the screen but I don’t think MLB or the individual teams want to shove it down our throats either. We’ll see what happens once more big leaguers start appearing in Grapefruit League games — Tanaka is one of the slowest workers in baseball, so I was looking to forward to seeing him with the pitch clock yesterday, but alas, the game was rained out — but so far, it seems to be business as usual, albeit with a little less standing around. That’s a good thing. That’s the entire point! The pitch clock outrage was always disproportionate to the pitch clock impact. You can hardly tell it’s there and the reduction in downtime adds up.

Update: Someone just pointed out to me the old YES Network score bug is back. You can see it in the pitch clock screen grab above. Thank goodness for that. I hope this is permanent and not just a Spring Training thing.

Thoughts after the Yankees sign Aaron Hicks to a seven-year contract extension

February 26, 2019 by Mike

Extension season is in full swing. Yesterday the Yankees somewhat surprisingly signed impending free agent Aaron Hicks to a seven-year, $70M contract with an eighth year club option. That comes after the Yankees signed Luis Severino to a four-year, $40M contract with a fifth year club option two weeks ago. Safe to say the team’s archaic “no extensions” policy is no more. Anyway, I have some thoughts on the Hicks deal, so let’s get to ’em.

1. I say the signing is somewhat surprising for two reasons: Term and money. Seven years? Didn’t see that coming, even though the contract begins right away and is effectively a six-year, $64M extension on top of the one-year, $6M deal Hicks signed to avoid arbitration last month. Long-term contracts are supposed to be big and scary these days, so much so that free agent spending has ground to a halt, yet here’s a seven-year deal covering a player’s age 29-35 seasons, with an option for his age 36 season. Huh. As for the money, getting Hicks at $10M annually is shocking. I can’t believe the average annual value is that low. Here are the center field contract comparables:

Dexter Fowler: $16.5M annually across five years (signed prior to age 31 season)
Lorenzo Cain: $16M annually across five years (signed prior to age 32 season)
A.J. Pollock: $13.75M annually across four years (signed prior to age 31 season)

I wrote about the recent Pollock signing setting the market for Hicks not too long ago. Hicks has been the better player the last two years and he’s two years younger than Pollock, yet he signed for only $15M more in guaranteed money, and that $15M is spread across three more guaranteed years. The Yankees were really able to sign a player of this caliber for $10M annually? I mean, we’re talking about a 29-year-old +5 WAR switch-hitting center fielder one year before free agency. For reference, Brett Gardner will earn $9.5M this year between his salary and option buyout. In the ol’ wild west days when teams spent real money, Hicks would’ve been a $100M player. He winds up with Fowler/Cain/Pollock total money but across more years. Teams are squeezing free agents so much that players are now jumping on team friendly extensions below market value. It was inevitable. I will never ever blame a player for taking the money. Good for Hicks. He set himself and newborn Aaron Jr. up for life. It’s just that, two or three years ago, Hicks would’ve signed for more money and not as many years. There’s little doubt the slow free agent market contributed to his decision to take the money and pass on testing the open market.

2. According to the unadjusted $/WAR calculations at FanGraphs, Hicks has given the Yankees $65.4M in production the last two seasons. Based on that, Hicks could be worth his entire extension the next two or three years alone. The $/WAR calculation at FanGraphs doesn’t really apply to the Yankees though. They should — should — be willing to pay more for a win than the average team because each win the Yankees add greatly increases their chances of winning the AL East and thus winning the World Series. (I don’t know about you, but I am sick of the Wild Card Game.) Adding wins is the single biggest priority right now, and, with this extension, the Yankees added a lot of wins in 2020 and beyond. A lot of wins on a long-term yet affordable contract. Affordable enough that, should Hicks go all Jacoby Ellsbury, his salary won’t stand in the way of doing anything big. Also, at that price, Hicks will be forever tradeable, especially since his actual salaries are lower in 2024 and 2025 than 2020-23. If you’re into surplus value, the Hicks extension will be in the black for the Yankees very quickly, especially since the Yankees are ostensibly willing to pay more for a win than the $/WAR numbers at FanGraphs would lead you to believe. He could be worth the $70M before the end of next year. Everything after that is gravy.

3. Last week I laid out what I thought was the Yankees’ extension priority list and I had Hicks in the top spot, so I’m not surprised at all to see him get a deal. He’s a quality player and he plays a position where the Yankees have little depth, and few quality options are expected to hit the market. Seriously, who was going to play center field next year if not Hicks? Estevan Florial won’t be ready, Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier can’t (or shouldn’t, anyway) play center field everyday, and neither should then-36-year-old Brett Gardner. Assuming the Pirates exercise their $11.5M club option for Starling Marte (that’s an easy yes), the best free agent center fielders next winter will be Leonys Martin and Juan Lagares, and nope. Nope nope nope. Trying to repeat the Hicks move with a buy low candidate like Byron Buxton or Manny Margot would’ve been much more preferable to signing one of those dudes, and who’s to say a young buy low candidate like that would even be available? The best move was signing Hicks, and the Yankees did exactly that on team friendly terms. Center field was going to a real issue going forward had the Yankees let Hicks walk or been outbid. You can always find a cheap corner outfielder in free agency. Center field though? Nope.

4. That all said, given his age and the contract length, there’s no doubt the Yankees signed Hicks with the understanding he will finish the contract in a corner outfield spot. I’d say right field is more likely than left because his arm is so strong. It would go to waste in left. Center field is a young man’s position. Last year Charlie Blackmon (32), Lorenzo Cain (32), Adam Jones (32), and A.J. Pollock (30) were the only 30-somethings to start at least 100 games in center field. Jones moved to right field in August and Blackmon is moving to right this year. Denard Span is the only player in the last three seasons to start at least 100 games in center at age 33 or older. He started 129 games in center at age 33 for the 2017 Giants and he was horrible out there. His time in center ended the next season. A center fielder, even one as athletic as Hicks, moving to a corner in his early-to-mid-30s is the natural order of things. The Yankees kept Bernie Williams in center far longer than they should’ve — Bernie is forever cool with me, but he was at -63 DRS in center from 2002-05 (ages 33-36), and yikes — though they didn’t repeat that mistake with Johnny Damon. He was a left fielder by age 33. At some point Hicks will slow down and have to move to a corner. Given his age and athleticism, I think we’re at least three years away from that happening, probably four. Hicks strikes me as a Cain type who can continue to play center through his age 32 or 33 seasons. That’d be ideal.

5. Now that Hicks is signed and some new information has come to light, I might as well update that extension priority list I mentioned two points ago. This is what I think it looks like now:

Dellin Betances (free agent after 2019)
Didi Gregorius (free agent after 2019)
Aaron Judge (free agent after 2022)
Gary Sanchez (free agent after 2022)
Gleyber Torres (free agent after 2024)
Miguel Andujar (free agent after 2023)

Two weeks ago I had Betances behind Gregorius and Judge. Since then, we’ve heard more about the Yankees and Betances discussing an extension than any other player. Even with his volatility, it makes sense. Dellin will be a free agent following this season, so there is some pressure to get this done soon, and Gregorius, another impending free agent, is coming back from a major surgery. The Yankees might want to wait to see how Sir Didi bounces back before getting serious about an extension. Since the Yankees are in the extension giving mode, signing Judge figures to be high on the priority list, maybe even ahead of Gregorius. The Yankees could easily ride out Judge’s final dirt cheap pre-arbitration year and enjoy the mammoth production on a six-figure salary. It is an option. Signing him now equals more long-term savings though. That’s how these deals work. The sooner you sign the player, the bigger the discount. Should Judge repeat his 2018 season in 2019, minus the wrist injury, he’ll threaten arbitration salary records. Locking in his salaries now, even if it means paying more luxury tax in 2019, could equal huge savings down the road. Anyway, that’s what I think the team’s extension priority list looks like. The healthy impending free agent, the injured impending free agent, the homegrown face of the franchise four years away from free agency, then everyone else.

6. What does the Hicks signing mean for Florial? Absolutely nothing. Nothing at all. Don’t even sweat it. The two are in no way connected. Hicks has established himself as an above-average big leaguer. Florial is a just turned 21-year-old kid likely to start the season back with High-A and maybe finish it in Double-A. Also, he has some pretty serious pitch recognition issues to iron out. I don’t believe the Hicks deal means the Yankees will be more open to trading Florial because I believe the Yankees have always been open to trading Florial. I’m not saying they would give him away, but a prospect this risky should never be made off-limits. Not for MLB roster help when your championship window is as open as it’s going to get. What happens when Florial is big league ready? First, celebrate, because that’ll mean he’s overcome his pitch recognition issues and is poised to be a really good player. Second, sit back and let the Yankees figure it out. Florial is probably two years away from the big leagues, maybe more depending on his pitch recognition improvement, and a lot can and will change between now and then. Maybe he’ll arrive right as Hicks is ready to slide over to a corner spot. That’d be convenient. Maybe the Yankees will need to replace Aaron Judge when Florial is ready. I don’t think that’ll be case, but who knows? Who had the Yankees giving Hicks a seven-year contract (!) at this point two years ago? Exactly. Seriously, don’t worry about what the Hicks deal means for Florial. Nothing’s changed. Florial is still a very young and very talented prospect with a very real issue to correct in his pitch recognition. When he’s ready, if ever, the Yankees will make room for him. The Hicks extension doesn’t change that.

7. So, now that the Yankees have locked up two core players with more extensions seemingly on the way, they’re going to circle back and pursue Bryce Harper, right? Right? No, no they’re not, because they were never going to pursue Bryce Harper and the whole “we can’t give out a big contract because we need to sign our core” thing was little more than a lame excuse for the team’s contribution to league-wide payroll stagnation. We’re talking about the Yankees here. Forgive me for thinking the team in the game’s biggest market with the league’s highest revenues should be able to sign their core players and afford premier free agents. It shouldn’t be one or the other and yet we’re being told it is. Whatever, man. At least no one with the Yankees has said, “Did we promise we were going to spend more money, or did we promise we were going to have more flexibility?” like Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos a few weeks ago. Imagine Brian Cashman or Hal Steinbrenner saying that. My blood would’ve boiled. The Yankees had a good offseason — not a great offseason, but a good offseason — and now they’re signing core players to team friendly contracts. All things considered, it could be worse. An awful lot worse. It could be quite a bit better too.