Archive for Offense
The Three-Four Trouble Spots
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(REUTERS/Mike Stone)
Despite scoring just three runs in their last 21 offensive innings, the Yankees still lead baseball with a 126 wRC+ and are second in runs per game at 5.56. Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson have been the club’s two best hitters so far in this young season, but their two least productive lineup spots have been three and four. If you happen to be new to baseball, that’s traditionally where teams stash their best hitters.
The Yankees’ number three hitters have produced a .300/.341/.438 batting line in 85 plate appearances, which is actually 4% worse than league average despite that shiny batting average. Power and on-base ability matters. The cleanup men have hit a much uglier .206/.341/.368 in 82 plate appearances, a whopping 17% worse than league average. Every other lineup spot has been at least 2% better than average, most substantially more than that. It’s like this giant hole of non-production right smack in the middle of the order.
Other than a one-game cameo by Mark Teixeira, the three and four spots of the lineup have belonged to Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez this season. They’ve been flipping back and forth based on the opposing starter and Joe Girardi‘s whim, but it’s been those two since day one. Cano’s struggles — .264/.337/.413 — are frustrating but unexpected, plus he has gone 12-for-40 with five doubles and homer in his last ten games (.300/.378/.500). I’m very confident that he’ll continue to right the ship.
A-Rod has managed to stay healthy so far this year (knock on wood) but the performance hasn’t been there: .221/.329/.382 in 79 plate appearances. He’s been streaky in the early going — six bad games followed by seven awesome games followed by four bad games — but that’s expected this time of year. Day-to-day consistency is baseball’s greatest myth, it just doesn’t exist. I think A-Rod will hit better as a the season progresses though he’ll never be the guy he used to be, but the real problem as that two of the team’s least productive players are currently hitting right behind their two most productive players. It’s not a coincidence that Jeter has been on-base more times than anyone other than Matt Kemp but is only ninth in runs scored.
We know that batting order doesn’t made a huge difference over the course of the 162-game season, but in one individual game it could have a huge impact. I think the best solution might be to move Alex up in the order, not down. Bat him second behind Jeter, who is on base all the time these days and forces the pitcher to work from the stretch. Keep Cano in the three-hole and bat Curtis Granderson cleanup. It might help kick start A-Rod’s bat a little bit and if not, no big deal. They can always change things up in the future. Patience is a wonderful thing in baseball, but sometimes it’s okay to jump the gun a bit and make changes earlier than expected. Rearranging the lineup furniture at this point is perfectly fine and worth trying.
The early season DH production
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees received some of the worst DH production in the American League last year, finishing 11th out of the 14 teams with a 101 wRC+. That’s exactly league average among all hitters for all intents and purposes, but it’s below average in the context of position. The only thing a DH has to do is hit, and a league average performance doesn’t really cut it for a contender.
Early on this season, the Yankees have actually received less production from their DHs than they did last year. Although they moved up a spot and now rank 10th out of the 14 AL teams, they do have a below league average 97 wRC+. The funny thing is that it doesn’t feel like the Yankees are receiving below average DH production, at least to me. Part of the problem is Raul Ibanez, who hasn’t been anything special overall — .222/.267/.481 and 97 wRC+ — but has had a knack for the big hit. The go-ahead double in Baltimore and the moonshot against the Angels standout in my mind, not all the unproductive walks back to the dugout.
The DH situation this season is kinda weird because because the Eduardo Nunez/Andruw Jones-based platoon, and in fact the Yankees have used five different starting DHs in their eleven games. The rotation is going to force us to think about the position a little differently, at least in terms of production. Is a league average DH actually a good thing if it helps keep say, Alex Rodriguez healthy and more productive at third base? That’s obviously what the Yankees are hoping.
The season is too young to start worrying about how certain players are performing, good or bad, and that’s especially true for the rotating DH spot. I don’t like the rotation idea because it means more playing time for inferior backups, but it’s not the gravest misjustice in the baseball world. If it keeps the regulars like Derek Jeter and A-Rod healthy, then it’s doing exactly what it’s designed to do. We did see a bit of a rotation last season and it didn’t keep them healthy, but that’s what will have to happen in 2012 to smother the stink of league average DH production for a second straight year.
Robinson Cano’s Slow Start
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(Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Curtis Granderson had the better offensive season in 2011, but Robinson Cano has established himself as the Yankees’ best all-around player over the last two or three years. He’s hit for average, hit for power, played solid defense, and has remained on the field. Cano’s basically done everything a team could ask its best player to do. Ten games into this season, things has been a bit different however.
Cano, who turns 30 in October, is sitting on a .244/.340/.341 batting line (.313 wOBA) through 47 plate appearances at the moment. He has played every inning of every game so far, and seven of his ten hits have come in just three games. He had a three-hit game against the Orioles last week, and two-hit games against both the Rays and Angels. Cano’s four hitless games this April already exceeds his total from last April (three). He hasn’t hit a homer yet either, and when you look at his batted ball profile, it’s no wonder why…
For whatever reason, Robbie’s been beating the ball into the ground in the early going (57.9 GB%). All four of Cano’s doubles have been rockets down the line, not shots into the gap like we’re used to seeing. That line drive stroke* we’ve become so accustomed to just isn’t quite there yet.
* The batted ball date from Baseball Info Solutions isn’t perfect, especially when it comes to differentiating between line drives and fly balls.
One thing Cano has done very well in the early going is walk, which isn’t exactly his forte. Robinson has drawn six unintentional walks already this season, something that took him 174 plate appearances to accomplish last season. He also isn’t striking out, with just three whiffs in the ten games so far. Cano’s always been a low strikeout guy because he puts the ball in play so easily, but even his currently rate is amazingly low. He’s seen an average of 3.51 pitches per plate appearance this season, the most of his career but not exactly an astronomical number. Maybe pitchers are pitching around him a bit more, who knows. It’s too early to say.
A slow start ten games into the season is hardly anything to be concerned about. Cano hit .189/.250/.324 during a ten-game stretch last May and no one said a thing because we barely noticed. These things happen during the course of the summer, but because it’s happening at the start of the season, it stands out a little bit more. With Robbie, it stands out even more because he’s such a great hitter and also because he’s come out of the gate on fire in each of the last two seasons — .417 wOBA last April and .497 in April 2010. At some point, hopefully soon, Cano will get back to being the hitter he’s been over the last two years and we’ll hardly remember this little season-opening hiccup.
Raul’s Clean Slate
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(Rob Carr/Getty Images)
The DH spot figured to be a bit of a lightning rod this season, one way or another. If the Yankees had not traded Jesus Montero, his every at-bat would have been scrutinized and over-analyzed given his status as The Next Great Yankee. I can’t help but wonder what the reaction would have been had gotten off to his .286/.261/.286 start in pinstripes. Instead, we’re left with Raul Ibanez and his age-slowed bat and massive platoon split.
Ibanez, 40 in less than two months, owns two of the three most memorable hits on the young season. He clobbered a three-run homer off Jamie Shields on Opening Day, and two nights ago he won the game with an extra innings double off Pedro Strop. More than one-fifth of the team’s runs have crossed the plate because of his bat. Of course, Ibanez hasn’t hit a lick outside of those two big hits, reaching base in just three of his other 16 plate appearances. One of those three was an intentional walk.
The offense as a whole has been hit or miss, especially with runners on base. Ibanez has bailed them out on two occasions even though that Opening Day homer came in an eventual loss. I’d like to think that he has a knack for the big hit, but I generally don’t buy into that stuff. He’s just had the right swing at the right time as far as I’m concerned. He deserves credit for doing that and for shaking off that brutal showing in Spring Training.
Six games — five for Ibanez — means very little in the grand scheme of things, but it’s nice to see him get off to a decent start. Maybe memorable is a better word, because a DH with a .306 wOBA is hardly a standout performance. Perhaps his first trip into the Bronx and Yankee Stadium will get him going a bit, but for now Ibanez has silenced some of the critics, albeit briefly. As long as they don’t play him in the field anytime soon anymore, there’s no reason for the Yankees to not ride this out a bit and see what he can do in this role.
No speed in the early going
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Nothing on bases, so far. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
The Yankees have scored at least five runs in four of their five games, including six runs in two of their three losses. The one exception was a shutout. Despite the complete lack of hitting with runners in scoring position — .189/.333/.321 in 70 PA — the Yankees have still scored the seventh most runs in baseball. They’ve hit four homers and roughly a billion balls to the warning track, and more than a few of those will leave the yard once the weather starts to warm up.
The other element of the offense, the speed element, really hasn’t been on display just yet. The Yankees stole the fourth most bases in baseball last year but only have three in the early going. One of those three was Raul Ibanez after he took off in a full count last night, and that’s an anomaly. Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez have the other two steals. Baseball Reference says the Yankees have run in just four of their 89 stolen base chances this year (4.5%), roughly half of last year’s rate.
We’re only five games into the season, so it’s hard to get worked up over the lack of running. In fact, I’m willing to bet that a very big part of the lack of stolen base attempts has to do with the opposition. Jose Molina and Matt Wieters are two of the three best catchers in baseball when it comes to throwing out base runners, and the Yankees have yet to play anyone other than the Rays and Orioles. Another factor in the whole lack of speed thing has been Gardner’s playing time. He’s only started three of the five games because of the platoon situation, so more of him will result in more steals.
The Yankees aren’t a club that relies on the stolen base, so the lack of speed has hardly been noticed so far. The offense still isn’t clicking on all cylinders — either with the bat or the legs — and it’s tough to watch at times despite the consistent run scoring (minus the shutout). A little more Gardner and a little more Eduardo Nunez will get the running game in gear and open things up for the bats. This early in the season, the lack of speed is hardly a concern.
RISP woes be gone
Posted by: | CommentsIn the first five games of the 2012 season we’ve seen two things in abundance. First, we’ve seen rough starting pitching performances. But that’s just one turn through the rotation, so it’s a non-issue at the moment. The other is failure with runners in scoring position. The Yankees have been in 70 such situations, and have scored just 20 runs. That’s not encouraging, even early in the season.
The Yankees have faced more situations with men in scoring position than any other team, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. In one way it certainly is; they’re giving themselves plenty of opportunities. But one of the reasons they have so many opportunities is exactly because they fail to cash in those opportunities. After all, if they single with a man on second, the following PA does not come with a man in scoring position. If the batter at the plate is retired and there are fewer than two outs, however, the next PA does come with a man in scoring position. That is to say that this is a two-way street.
What I find most odd about the Yankees’ RISP woes this season is that the process seems to be there. They’re getting on base plenty — their .357 team OBP ranks third in the AL — so they’re setting themselves up to score a ton of runs. Even further, they’re putting together good at-bats when they do have RISP situations. It might not seem like that, since they’re failing so often. But they’re seeing a lot of pitches and working deep counts. Here’s how many pitches per PA they’ve seen in RISP situations in each game.
Note: these are hand calculated.
4/6: 4.29
4/7: 4.22
4/8: 3.86
4/9: 3.86
4/10: 3.76
This is against their team average of 3.95 P/PA, so it’s pretty close overall. At the same time, they’ve seen some success when swinging early in the count. With runners in scoring position they’ve put the first pitch in play nine times. Five of those have resulted in RBI. It’s a bit frustrating, sure, when both Jeter and Swisher put the first pitch in play and kill a perfectly good rally. But overall they’ve had some success doing that. In the PA where they didn’t drive home runs, they’re seeing 4.29 pitches per PA, or a third of a pitch more per PA than their season average.
The process, then, seems to be there. It’s just a matter of time before they start to come through in these situations. It’s frustrating for sure. No one wants to sit through these opportunities and see them score no runs. Soon enough, though, we should see plenty of activity when there are ducks on the pond. Remember, even though they were somewhat frustrating last year their BA with RISP in 2011 ranked 5th in the AL, and their OPS ranked first. The hits will drop.
Jeter’s advantage in the young season
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Four! Four hits against a lefty. Ah ha ha ha. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Sometimes an unexpected break can be just what we need. For Derek Jeter, last year’s trip to the disabled list, which he had not visited since 2003, provided just such a break. It allowed him to step back and refocus his efforts after a .260/.324/.324 start to the season. Whatever he changed, mentally and physically, turned around his season. In his 314 PA after returning he hit .331/.384/.447, which closely resembled his superb 2009 season.
Jeter’s changes appear to have lasting effects. In spring training he hit .318/.362/.455, and is now off to a hot start in the 2012 season. After a 4 for 4 performance last night he’s now 7 for 17 on the season (.412) with a walk and a double. Because he’s Derek Jeter, the 4 for 4 performance caused people to say some ridiculous things, but that’s understandable. It’s hard not to be excited about an apparently resurgent Jeter.
That Jeter has gotten off to such a hot start comes with little surprise. In their four games this year, the Yankees have faced two lefty starters, against whom Jeter excels. Against these left-handed pitchers Jeter has picked up five of his seven hits. Last year following his injury Jeter faced a left-handed pitcher 89 times and hit .390/.438/.622, smacking four of his six home runs in that sample. Even in 2010, when he struggled more than ever previously in his career, he hit .321/.391/.481 against lefties, a 135 sOPS+ (that is, compared to the league vs. left-handed pitching).
Jeter’s prowess against left-handed pitching is no revelation; he’s smacked them around far worse than righties in every year of his career except for 1999 (his surge against righties fueled his career-best season). But in recent years he has beat them up to a disproportionate degree: in his last three seasons he has the tree highest tOPS+* figures of his career. That is, his use of left-handed pitching as batting practice has essentially kept his career afloat as he has aged. This is especially true in the last two years, when he produced solidly below-average numbers against right-handed pitching (81 and 94 sOPS+).
*tOPS+ is his split compared to his overall numbers, so it compares the player to himself, while sOPS+ compares him to the league. Also, adding to that asterisk, Jeter did produced a 132 tOPS+ vs. lefties in 2000, which ties his 2009 mark. Close enough.
Tonight Jeter gets another chance, as the Yankees face Orioles’ lefty Wei-Yin Chen. After that, C.J. Wilson will take the mound against the Yankees this weekend. Francsico Liriano will be in town with the Twins next week. When the Yanks head up to Boston it might line up so they face Jon Lester and Felix Doubront. The Rangers have both Matt Harrison and Derek Holland. Among their most common opponents, the Orioles have two lefty starters, as do the Red Sox and the Rays. Only the Blue Jays are left with a single lefty in their rotation. All of this will play to Jeter’s advantage this year.
We so often see players, and especially middle infielders, start to fade by the time they’re Derek Jeter’s age. In many ways, Jeter himself has been in decline as a ballplayer. He’s kept himself afloat, though, and a big part of the reason is his ability to pick up the ball from left-handed pitching. May this skill fuel his career from now through the end of his current contract — and perhaps beyond.
Yanks showing patience & contact skills early on
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(Rob Carr/Getty Images)
The Yankees won their first game of the season last night, scoring exactly six runs for the third time in four games. They also drew seven walks compared to just two strikeouts, continuing an early-season trend of taking ball four and putting the ball in play. The Yankees currently have the lowest strikeout rate (11.1%) and the highest walk rate (15.4%) in baseball, and frankly it’s not all that close in either category.
Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher lead the way with five walks and two strikeouts each while Robinson Cano has yet to strikeout in any of the four games. Russell Martin and Mark Teixeira also have more walks than whiffs while Derek Jeter and Raul Ibanez have the same number of both. Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson are the only regulars with more strikeouts than walks. It’s only four games, but stuff like this is still fun to see. The Yankees are billed as a power and patience club, and they’re getting both without the typical byproduct of strikeouts. That’s actually been a bit of a trend during the Kevin Long years…
| K% | BB% | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 11.1% | 15.4% | 116 |
| 2011 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 113 |
| 2010 | 17.8% | 10.4% | 112 |
| 2009 | 15.7% | 10.3% | 117 |
| 2008 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 104 |
| 2007 | 15.2% | 9.8% | 120 |
The average walk and strikeout rates during that time are 8.5% and 18.0%, respectively, so the Yankees have been better than average at both. Jeter, Teixeira, A-Rod, and Martin have always been high walk, reasonable low strikeout guys while Cano doesn’t do much of either, walks or strikeouts. Swisher and Granderson struck out a whole bunch, but they also drew plenty of walks. That’s all by the design; the Yankees have sought out players who make pitchers work and generally make contact.
The early-season results are a rather extreme example of what the Yankees are capable of doing offensively. David Price was the only member of Tampa’s vaunting pitching staff to record more strikeouts (five) than walks (four) during the season-opening series, and poor Brian Matusz never had a chance last night. At some point the club’s walk and strikeout numbers will even out and resemble what they did over the last half-decade, but right now getting the best of both worlds. Power, patience, and contact.
The unorthodox DH platoon
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(REUTERS/Eric Miller)
As soon as the Yankees traded Jesus Montero, we knew they were going to have some sort of platoon at DH this year. Andruw Jones was the obvious choice against left-handers, and after a few weeks of rumors, the Yankees settled on Raul Ibanez against right-handers. He’ll be in the lineup this afternoon against Jamie Shields. The DH platoon isn’t that straight-forward, however. Eduardo Nunez is going to be a factor as well.
Joe Girardi confirmed yesterday that Nunez will start Saturday’s game either at shortstop or third base against the left-hander David Price. Either Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez will then serve as the DH, and Andruw figures to step into left field while Brett Gardner rides the bench. Girardi also said that this will be his regular alignment against southpaws. We discussed a similar setup at various points this offseason, but now we know the team is putting the plan in place.
Since last summer, the Yankees have insisted on giving Nunez more playing time this season and this is probably the most logical way to do it. Jeter and especially A-Rod could use the regular rest, and although Gardner’s defense will be missed, his bat won’t be (career 84 wRC+ vs. LHP). Besides, it’s only for a few innings. He’ll surely replace Jones in the later innings of a tie game. Nunez’s bat against southpaws isn’t much better (94 wRC+), but we’re only talking 147 big league plate appearances. His minor league numbers suggest he could be a little better than that going forward.
I’m not Eduardo’s biggest fan, but the Yankees are going to play him whether we like it or not. There’s no harm in seeing what the kid could do given semi-regular at-bats, especially with all this talk about the 2014 payroll and the need to inject some youth into the lineup at some point relatively soon. If it doesn’t work out, then so be it. The Yankees can adjust and figure out a new arrangement. Nothing’s permanent. I do like that they’re being somewhat creative and aren’t employing a straight platoon though, this could yield some big results if it means a healthier A-Rod and Nunez proves useful.
2012 Season Preview: Platoon Opportunities
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Via Reuters Photos
Platoons in baseball can be tricky machines. In theory they’re great. They allow batters to emphasize their strengths and hide their weaknesses. But in practice they don’t quite add up perfectly. There are all sorts of issues that go along with platoons, not least of which is the sheer number of roster spots available. As such, teams have to pick their platoon guys with care. The 2012 Yankees seem to have one prominent platoon pair, with a couple of other low-level ones to consider on occasion.
Heading into the 2010 season, the Yankees needed a righty outfield bat. They had just traded for Curtis Granderson, who had struggled against left-handed pitching for most of his career. They were also going to try Brett Gardner, another lefty, in left field. Having a right-handed outfielder to spell one of them seemed not only like a good idea, but a pretty necessary insurance plan. And so, despite Marcus Thames‘ subpar spring training, he made the team.
Deciding that they’d gotten the best of Thames, the Yankees sought another lefty masher for their 2011 lineup. Andruw Jones appeared to be a perfect fit. After slipping in 2007 and turning in a disastrous 2008, Jones had recovered to be a serviceable part-time player, excelling particularly against left-handed pitchers. His continued production against left-handed pitching earned him a return trip for 2012.
Jones has expressed a desire for a more regular role, facing both lefties and righties. He might get that opportunity, given the concerns with our next entrant on the platoon bats list. But chances are he’ll be at his most effective against left-handed pitchers. Since 2009 Jones has produced a 129 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which ranks 55th among all major leaguers with at least 200 PA (against LHP).
Once the Yankees traded Jesus Montero, their DH situation became a big clearer. Jones could take reps at DH against left-handed pitching, leaving Brett Gardner to a full-time role in left. But that still left open the strong side of the DH platoon. By that point in the off-season there weren’t many viable options remaining, and so the Yankees picked the player whom they thought gave them the best combination of the skills they valued. That turned out to be Ibanez.
Like Thames two years ago, Ibanez has started slowly in the spring. Given his guaranteed contract and lack of competition, however, he’ll likely break camp with the team and commence his role as the platoon DH. Yet it’s difficult to expect big things from him. Since 2009 Ibanez has produced a 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks 65th out of 147 qualified hitters. That does include a poor 2012 as well as a torrid 2009. The Yanks will do best to avoid all confrontations between Ibanez and lefties.
While Ibanez and Jones represent the bulk of the Yankees’ platoon opportunities, they do have a few other players who carry platoon splits. They likely won’t get platooned, at least not frequently, but their rest days would preferably come when facing same-handed pitchers. (Though that should be the rule of thumb regardless, right?)
Brett Gardner
Last year Gardner saw fewer at-bats against left-handed pitching. This is partly because Jones hit them so well. But there were also signs that he was struggling against them. He didn’t hit for average (.233) and had absolutely no power (.039 ISO). While he did walk and strike out against lefties less frequently than he did against righties, the overall result was pretty negative (75 wRC+).
With the DH spot open against left-handed pitching, Gardner could see more opportunities this year. He did hit lefties fairly well in 2010, a .373 OBP and a 102 wRC+. He’ll get days off against lefties for sure, but it does appear that he’ll get a few more chances to prove his mettle against them in 2012.
Jeter did bounce back in the second half of last year, but his total season numbers against righties still disappointed. In fact, it was his torrid production against lefties, a 160 wRC+ in 168 PA, that contributed greatly to his overall success. Against rigthies, whom he faced 439 times, he hit just .277/.329/.338. Still, that was an improvement on his 2010 season, in which he hit .246/.315/.317 in 500 PA against RHP. The last time he hit righties effectively was 2009: .311/.381/.435. Given his age it’s difficult to expect more out of him than he hit last year. If he can keep up that pace he’ll be OK. But it’s easy to see how his production against righties will hurt his overall numbers in the final years of his contract.
Larry covered A-Rod’s continued woes against left-handed pitching earlier in the off-season. He did a pretty comprehensive job, so there’s no need to rehash it here. A-Rod‘s poor production against lefties makes Eric Chavez an unideal understudy, since he’ll face mostly right-handed pitchers. But perhaps the new, more balanced A-Rod will buck the trend and once again mash left-handed pitching.
There could also be room here to mention both Nick Swisher‘s and Mark Teixeira‘s struggles against righties, but that’s not really a platoon issue. That is, they’re not going to sit against right-handed pitching, since they’re their own platoon partners. But those issues do exist. Just to be clear.
