Archive for Offense
Jeter still a long way from catching Gehrig
Posted by: | CommentsThe hardest thing to do in sports, the saying goes, is to hit a pitched baseball. Round ball, cylindrical bat, pitcher with an intent to deceive, all that jazz. Yes, there are tougher things to accomplish in sports, but as far as a fundamental act of a sport, there’s nothing more difficult than to hit a baseball. That’s why we’ve celebrated Derek Jeter. He’s hit so many baseballs that only on other Yankee in history has as many. Since that man no longer plays, Jeter will soon be atop the Yankees hit leader board.
Over the past two decades, we’ve seen focus shift from batting average, hits divided by at bats, to On Base Percentage, times on base divided by plate appearances, and other advanced metrics. That’s because hits are only one part of the game. A big part, no doubt. Hits not only put the batter on base, but can advance runners, possibly more than one base. Even then, all hits are not created equal. A double is worth more than a single, and a homer is the best thing you can do. In other words, there’s more to baseball than just hits.
We do celebrate hits, though, and hold in rarified air those who can accumulate them. There isn’t a single eligible member of the 3,000 hits club who still awaits Hall Of Fame induction (though the first will come and go with Rafael Palmeiro). Hits matter, and if hitting a pitched baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports, they matter a lot. But they’re still not everything. As Tom Tango says:
Please, shove all the hits-only talk out the window. Walks also count. Getting hit by a pitch counts. Hits count. It’s about getting on base. Yes, hits matter. But, getting on base matters more.
Sorry, but we’re not going to shove the hits-only talk out the window. How can you disregard an aspect of the game which is considered harder to do than anything in sports? It doesn’t mean that hits are more important (though you could make the argument). It means that, as I said a paragraph above, there are other aspects to consider.
That’s what we get from Beyond the Boxscore, where one user posted a few all-time on base leader boards. While Jeter still sits with some lofty company on the all-time Yanks list, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever crack the top 10 all time.
My favorite part about this post, which I suggest you read, is that each list gets progressively crazier. First is the all-time Yankees on base leader board. Babe Ruth sits comfortably atop with 4,405 times on base. Lou Gehrig follows with 4,274, and Mickey Mantle sits between Gehrig and Jeter, Mantle with 4,161 and Jeter with 3,736. It will take Jeter at least two more years just to catch Mantle. He has a long way to go in catching Gehrig, and I’m not sure he’ll ever catch Ruth.
The Captain sits even further down the all-time Yankees OBP board. It’s readily available on B-R, but it never ceases to blow my mind that Babe Ruth had a .484 career OBP. Like in the previous list he’s followed by Gehrig, .447, and Mantle, .421. Jeter is in seventh at .387. Maybe he’ll become even more selective as he ages and will push that up over .397, which is where Earle Combs sits at sixth all-time for Yankees. Even that would be a tough accomplishment.
Finally, the all-time leader board for times on base. Babe Ruth, first on the Yankees list, is ninth on this list. First: who else but Pete Rose, who was on base 5,929 times. That’s an unfathomable number. Five thousand, nine hundred and twenty-nine times on base. Of course, that’s partly a testament to his longevity — Rose has also recorded more outs than anyone in MLB history. Not only is he the leader there, but he has 1,192 more outs than the player who recorded the second most outs.
This isn’t at all to take away from Jeter’s accomplishment. We’ll celebrate again once he sits alone atop the Yankees hit list, and we’ll celebrate when he gets that 3,000th hit. Hits matter — a lot, even. But they’re not everything. Even so, Jeter is quite adept at getting on base by any means necessary. He might never crack the all-time list, but then again it’s doubtful any active player will. But let’s not forget this when Jeter passes Mantle for the all-time Yankees on-base list.
Is Derek Jeter the best hitting shortstop ever?
Posted by: | CommentsThis is a guest post from the always-welcome Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Universe.
Jesse Spector of The Daily News took an interesting look at Derek Jeter’s place in history, and came to the following conclusion:
At the very least, he’s in the conversation with Cronin and Wagner, a pair of Hall of Famers who were the best of their times. Cronin in the early part of the live ball era and Wagner in the dead ball era, both before Jackie Robinson integrated the major leagues at second base and expanded the talent pool to allow Jeter to be a part of it.
The other thing is that the game has changed in ways beyond simply who is playing it. Cronin and Wagner combined to strike out 1,027 times in their careers, while Jeter has gone down on strikes 1,440 times. But in this era, even averaging 100 strikeouts a year, Jeter rarely is criticized for having a high strikeout rate. Jeter also has the advantage of having been seen by millions of people in his career. The only people who ever saw Cronin or Wagner were either there in person or saw them on newsreels. Good luck finding them on YouTube.
In an era where everyone is always quick to describe the last thing to happen as the greatest, Jeter does deserve all the praise for breaking a record and having a place among the greatest of all time. But it’s impossible to peg him as being alone as the best when the hard facts of statistics don’t put him there convincingly, and the rest of the evidence isn’t up for review. So, at least until Jeter gets a clear numerical edge on Cronin and Wagner, he’ll have to settle for just being called one of the best, with nobody standing as the clear-cut No. 1.
This is a very thoughtful, reasonable article, and I encourage you to read it. That being said, Jeter is most definitely not the best hitting SS ever, although he is almost certainly in the top 5. The problem with judging Jeter at this point is that his career is not over, in that he has not gone through a decline phase yet, and other players are being penalized for having moved off SS while Jeter has not reached that point in his career. However, being that Derek is unlikely to play another position for an extended period, let us consider only the players who spent a considerable portion of their career at SS.
For example, players like Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, George Davis, and Alex Rodriguez would all have legitimate arguments to be ahead of Jeter, but none lasted at SS past the age of 30. This is going to be a rudimentary analysis, so correct me if I make any errors. Remember, we are considering offense only. Furthermore, a player like Luke Appling would likely be on this list if not for missing time due to WWII. Because I am not sure how to correct for that, I am just going to use career totals, which sadly leaves Appling off.
Honus Wagner: Career Numbers: .327/.391/.466 OPS+: 150 5 best (full) years by OPS+: 205, 187, 186, 176, 175
Joe Cronin: Career Numbers: .301/.390/.468 OPS+: 119 5 best years by OPS+: 138, 136, 135, 129, 127
Arky Vaughan: Career Numbers: .318/.406/.453 OPS+: 136 5 best years by OPS+: 190, 149, 148, 146, 140
Lou Boudreau: Career Numbers: .295/.380/.415 OPS+: 120 5 best years by OPS+: 164, 145, 133, 131, 128
Cal Ripken: Career Numbers: .276/.340/.447 OPS+: 112 5 best years by OPS+: 162, 145, 144, 143, 128
Derek Jeter: Career Numbers: .317/.387/.459 OPS+: 121 5 best years by OPS+: 153, 132, 128, 127, 126
One note: Looking at 5 best seasons by OPS+ does not exactly do Jeter justice, as much of his value is caught up in his consistency. His 6-10 best years are likely better than those years for most of the players on this list. That being said, I think we can reach a few conclusions.
1) Honus Wagner is the best hitting SS of all time, and Arky Vaughan is second.
2) Cal Ripken stuck around way too long, and his decline was substantial enough to knock him out of the top 5 in terms of offensive value.
3) Jeter is right there in the next group with Boudreau and Cronin, rounding out the top 5, and an argument can be made for Jeter as #3 if you place career value over peak.
Conclusion: Among players who remained at SS for the bulk of their careers, Derek Jeter is no higher than 3rd but is likely no lower than 5th (unless I missed somebody) in terms of hitting. Next time somebody tells you he would be a borderline star if he played in KC, tell him to do some research.
ed note: this was written and sent to me yesterday before either of us saw this.
Maybe Jorge could use a day off or two
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees play the final game of their West Coast trip later this evening, and will then enjoy a day off before beginning a series at Fenway. While a win would be nice, especially because it’s the Yanks (arguably) worst starter against one, if not the, A’s best, it would be nice to see Joe Girardi set up his team for the weekend series. This doesn’t mean resting all the starters — not by a long shot. Rather, it means giving the slumping Jorge Posada a day off, which will translate into two straight.
Why give Jorge a break? Quite simply because he’s mired in one hell of a slump. How bad? The last time Jorge drew a walk was August 7 against Boston. He’s drawn just two free passes the entire month of August. You know who else has walked twice this month? Robinson Cano. That should be the first indicator that something is wrong with Jorge.
Since the four-game sweep of Boston, Posada has come to the plate 34 times, registering 33 at bats. The only one which didn’t count was last night’s sac fly. In that span Jorge has hit .182/.176/.364 — a mere 6 for 33. His slugging percentage is propped up by his homer against Toronto which just cleared the short porch, and a few doubles. It’s nice to see him hitting with some power — it’s a sign that it’s just a bad slump — but boy, is it ever hurting the team.
Perhaps the strangest, and perhaps the worst, stat of Jorge’s post-Boston slump: 13 strikeouts in 34 plate appearances. That’s a strikeout almost 40 percent of the time he’s come to the plate. It’s also a 13:0 K/BB ratio in that span.
The slump extends a bit further back than that. Since the beginning of the Rays series in late July, Posada is hitting .230/.247/.392 with a 21:2 K/BB ratio. That covers 33 plate appearances, about as big as the post-Boston sample, and in that he also hit three doubles and one homer. While the Yanks have been rolling post-break, Jorge most definitely has not.
Jorge could certainly use the two days off. He’s had just one day off since August 8, missing only the first game of the Seattle series. True, he’s DHed in two of those games, but he’s 37 years old. Given his lack of rest and his stats in that span, it certainly stands to reason that he could use a bit of a break. The Yankees have an opportunity to get him a couple of days off heading into a big series with Boston, and they should certainly take advantage. Having a productive Jorge greatly enhances the already powerful Yankees lineup.
Are the Yanks trying to hit fly balls?
Posted by: | CommentsOne thing that’s become apparent over the course of this season: the Yanks are built for their home ballpark. Among their nine regulars they have just two righties. The rest are lefties or switch-hitters. Since the majority of pitchers are righties, that means the Yankees bat from the left side of the plate more often than not, which gives them a nice, short shot at the right field fence. This has led Pat Andriola of The Hardball Times to wonder whether the Yanks hitters are trying to put the ball in the air. Unsurprisingly, some players are experiencing the highest flyball rates of their careers: Mark Teixeira, Johnny Damon, and Jorge Posada, while Hideki Matsui is in the midst of his second highest rate season.
Is that necessarily good, though? Sure, Tex is just three homers behind his total from 2008 and is at his total from 2007, but it has come at a cost. Ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls, which has led Teixeira’s BABIP to fall to .289, the lowest of his career. Ditto his line drive rate, at 16.6 percent, and his batting average with runners in scoring position, .268. It’s also led to a high number of infield flies.
Also, Tex’s fly balls aren’t getting out at a greater rate. He has a 17.2 percent home run per fly ball ratio, which is at or below most of his previous years. It would make sense to swing for the fences more if the fly balls were going out at a greater rate, but they’re not. Then again, it’s tough to complain about Tex’s season at all right now. Maybe he’d be better off leveling his swing as in the past, but we just can’t know that. What we do know is that he’s battering the ball at Yankee Stadium.
Strangely, Swisher is not hitting more fly balls this year. In fact, it doesn’t look like he’s tailoring his swing to the new Stadium at all — or if he is, then it’s not working. Hey, maybe that explains his poor home splits. If he’s trying to put the ball over the short porch and is failing, well, that might explain his .206 BA and .323 SLG at home.
It’s an interesting thought, though. Considering how well the Yanks have played at home this season, it would seem to be working, if in fact that’s the case.
Bounce back players helping to power Yanks
Posted by: | CommentsWhen asked what three additions have meant most to the 2009 Yankees, the first names that probably come to mind are A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira. All three signed with the Yankees over the off-season, and they’ve been excellent upgrades over their 2008 counterparts. Still, Dave Pinto has three different names in mind: Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Robinson Cano. Both were on the 2008 team, but the first two missed significant time with injuries, and Cano had a horrible first half and a good but not compensatory second half. Their returns to form this year have been a huge difference for this year’s team.
In 2008 Robinson Cano stepped to the plate 634 times and hit .271/.305/.410, his worst season since he was a rookie in 2005. His defense also suffered, as we saw him have trouble making some routine plays. It came at a curious time, as Cano had signed a four-year, $30 million contract over the off-season. Baseball fans love narrative, and this one wrote itself: Cano was lazy and he needed Larry Bowa to return to form.
This year Robinson has appeared at the plate 489 times and is hitting .318/.352/.513. He already had 18 homers and a team-high 32 doubles (tied with Tex). He still has his ups and downs, but that’s inherently Cano. He doesn’t necessarily rely on waiting for his pitch. Instead, he relies on timing, and sometimes his timing is going to be out of whack. That means a slump here and there, but as long as he can keep those limited, as he has this year, he’s going to be a valuable piece of any Yankees team.
Despite knee troubles that kept him out of action for two months, Matsui didn’t have a terrible 2008. He hit the DL hitting .323/.404/.458, which is fine for a 34-year-old with bad knees. Problem was, the injury came at a poor time. The Yankees were trying to pull of their second-half surge, but their offense sputtered in early August. A healthy Matsui would have done wonders then. He came back on August 19, but posted a paltry .209/.269/.326 line over 93 plate appearances the rest of the way. It left open the question of Hideki’s effectiveness in 2009.
This year Hideki has almost hit his plate appearance total from 2008, but is performing at a much higher level. The Yankees made the decision to keep him out of the field this season, and it’s paying off, as he’s hitting .269/.365/.516. We saw some extreme streakiness from Matsui earlier in the year, but it’s seemed to stabilize a bit lately. His .881 OPS is fourth on the team, and he’s had his share of big hits. The Yankees went on a similar post-break run this year as last, but this year were able to sustain it. Hideki is a big reason for that.
Finally, it’s impossible to talk about the 2008 season and not mention the loss of Jorge Posada. He and the team downplayed shoulder pain in Spring Training, and it turned out to be bad. Really bad. He hit the DL at the end of April in hopes that rest and rehab would heal it, but that just wasn’t the case. From mid-June, when he returned, to mid-July, when it was finally clear that he couldn’t go on, Posada hit .248/.380/.371, a far cry from the power he’s displayed in the past. Overall, the Yanks got a .230/.290/.335 line from their catchers, something they haven’t been used to.
After hitting the DL in May, it seems like Jorge’s been just fine physically. Among AL catchers with at least 200 plate appearances, Posada ranks third in OPS. The Yankees as a team are also third in the AL in catcher OPS. They were ninth last season.
While Tex, CC, and A.J. have been fine additions to the team, the Yanks have gotten what they’ve needed from their in-house guys, and then some. Before the season started, we asked which Yankee had the best chance of bouncing back from a poor 2008. Unfortunately, there was no all of the above option. That would have been the correct one. Jorge, Hideki, and Cano (and even Swisher) have all come around and have helped the Yankees greatly in 2009. They’re as big a part of the team’s success as the new guys.
What home run drought?
Posted by: | CommentsOne one person in the media picks up on a story, it seems like everyone runs with it. I felt not a twinge of surprise, then, when the Yankees beat writers all noted at some point or another that A-Rod is in home run drought of sorts. Specifically, he’s gone 66 at bats without a homer, quite a long drought for him. Yet, how much does it really matter?
Players slump and streak throughout a season. Mark Teixeira went through a homer drought earlier this year, and that created a media story. Yet it was just another slump. He hit poorly in that span to some degree, though he did have a .368 OBP in that span. Similarly, A-Rod is hitting .281/.352/.344 since his last game with a home run, so it’s not all bad. It’s just a little loss of power.
Since Teixeira hit that homer that broke the drought, he’s hit .310/.367/.630. A-Rod could be poised for just that kind of run once he hits another one out of the park. Things will only get better from there. Which is crazy, because the Yanks are 12-5 since A-Rod last hit a home run in the finale of the Tigers series. Even crazier, they’ve averaged over six runs per game in that span. Without A-Rod hitting balls out of the park, and generally not hitting for much power.
If the Yanks offense can thrive while Alex Rodriguez is in a mini-slump (and he still has a .885 OPS over the past week), imagine how they’ll far when he’s streaking again.
Whither Melky, again
Posted by: | CommentsWhile the Yankees downed the Orioles last night to move into sole possession of first place, Melky Cabrera did not have a night to remember. He went 0 for 4 and saw his triple slash numbers decline to .274/.333/.418. For the first time all season, Melky’s OPS+ has dipped below 100. He is now a below-average hitter for the Yanks.
Earlier in the year, things were looking up for the Melk Man. He was hitting .327/.400/.571 through the end of April and followed that up with a .321/.348/.429. The power drop was precipitous, and the decline in his IsoD, the difference between his batting average and on-base percentage, was notable. Yet, through the end of May, he was still hitting .323/.368/.481, and we all would have taken it.
Last night’s 0-fer caps what has been a miserable two months for Melky. Since the start of June, he is just 29 for 130, good for a .223 batting average, and has a .297 on-base percentage. He is slugging just .353 in that stretch, and his OPS has declined to .751, a drop of over .200 points since the end of April.
We can’t really be surprised by Melky’s post-spring slump. In 2008, he had a stellar April, hitting .299/.370/.494 and then put up a triple slash line of .235/.281/.300 through the end of the season. It’s little consolation that his 2009 swoon is a slight improvement over his 2008 nose dive. He’s still producing at a level that should get him benched.
At this point, I don’t know what to do with Melky Cabrera. We’ve long been accused of being Melky haters, and to a certain extent, we are. But we don’t hate Melky due to any sort of personal grudge. We hate him because Joe Girardi insists on playing him in spite of the numbers.
Melky Cabrera has over 1900 plate appearances at the Big League level and has never managed to be an above-average hitter for more than two months at a time. While his fielding is good, it can’t overcome his inability to get on base or hit for average. He is basically a fourth outfielder in sheep’s clothing.
The Yankees probably won’t look to improve upon center field at the trade deadline. They would end up spending far too many prospects on a player who just won’t be that good. But at the same time, they can’t keep sending Melky Cabrera out there day in and day out. It’s time for Brett Gardner to be the de facto center fielder. When or if he shows he can’t handle it, the Yanks can begin to think about ways to fill that hole, but the reign of Melky and his .297 on-base percentage since June 1 needs to end.
First Half Review: Outfielders and DH
Posted by: | CommentsAt 51-37, with the third best record in baseball, leading the Wild Card and just three games back in the AL East, the Yankees had a fine first half. Yet it was a tumultuous three months, wrought with streaks and injuries and strange trends, causing mass panic at times among Yankees fans. Over the extended All-Star Break, we’ll go over each position to see what went right, what went wrong, and how things look for the second half. We already looked at the starting pitchers, relievers, corner infielders, catchers, and middle infielders, so now it’s time to take a look at the outfielders and designated hitter.
The expectations
Coming into the season with no fewer than five outfielders on their projected Opening Day roster, the Yanks figured to sport a solid but relatively unspectacular outfield in 2009. Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady figured to man the corner outfield spots and work in some kind of harmonious rotation where everyone stayed rested and productive. Centerfield was going to be occupied by Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner, whichever one happened to be hitting at the moment. Hideki Matsui was expected to contribute nothing beyond DH duty, which was fine.
After posting a .765 OPS as a unit in 2008 (20th best in baseball), the team figured to see an improvement in its outfield production this year given their depth. Damon was expected to produce at a similar pace to his first three years in pinstripes, while everyone assumed that a rebound for Nick Swisher and slight step back from Nady would combine to produce at the very least average production. Gardbrera was a bit of a crapshoot, and in most circles it was believed the team would probably need to go out and get someone at some point. Matsui just had to be Matsui, or close to it.
The results
Aside from a season-ending elbow injury to Nady just eight games into the season, everything has gone better than expected. Swisher has rebounded from his down year in Chicago while Cabredner has been better than anyone could have expected. Johnny Damon is enjoying the best season of his long career, just in time for his contract year. As a unit, the Yanks rank third in AL with an .815 OPS, trailing two of their AL East counterparts. You get one guess who those two teams are. Hideki Matsui has stayed relatively healthy and is having his best season since 2005.
It’s hard not to be pleased with the production the Yankees have gotten out of the outfield and DH this year. Aside from Nady everyone’s been able to stay on the field, and there’s more bodies than spots so there should be enough opportunity to keep the seemingly ageless Damon fresh.
Johnny Damon
Amazingly, Damon is having the best season of his career at age 35. However, it looks like the New Yankee Stadium has contributed greatly to his resurgence, as his home OPS is more than 200 points greater than his road OPS. He’s taken to the two-spot in the order like he’s been hitting there his entire career, which I think is what most of us figured would happen.
Unfortunately it’s not all good news for Johnny, because his defense in left field has been downright dreadful in 2009. Whether you trust newfangled defensive metrics or just judge defense with your eyes, it’s easy to see the Damon went from an above-average left fielder to one that’s shaky at best. In the team’s final two wins of the first half up in Minnesota, Joe Girardi replaced Damon with Melky Cabrera in the late innings for defense. More than likely we’ll see that continue in the second half.
Melky Cabrera & Brett Gardner
After winning the centerfield job outright in Spring Training, it took only 15 games or so for Melky Cabrera to reclaim the job. In what looks like an annual occurrence, Melky started the year on fire (.326-.394-.517 through May 13th) but trailed off afterward (.261-.320-.395 since). Gardner did pretty much the opposite, starting slow (.214-.273-.257 through May 12th) before picking up the pace (.322-.398-.492 since). The two have combined for a .293-.361-.439 batting line, fourth best among centerfielders in the AL and behind only the Orioles in the AL East.
Gardner has been a hero on defense, putting up an ungodly 20.1 UZR/150, trailing only Colby Rasmus and Franklin Gutierrez. Melky’s been solid, but as usual he tends to get overrated because of his arm. As a whole, the Gardbrera tandem has given the Yanks everything they could have wanted and more.
Nick Swisher & Xavier Nady
We weren’t sure how Girardi was going to get both Swisher and Nady regular at-bats this year, but that problem took care of itself barely a week into the season. Swisher has handled the everyday job with aplomb, doing his usual schtick of getting on base (.360 OBP) and hitting for power (.464 SLG). While he’s prone to the occasional botched play, overall he’s been slightly above average in right field with a 1.8 UZR/150. While it would be nice to have Nady healthy for the depth, Swisher has held down the fort just fine.
Hideki Matsui
It’ll be easy to talk about Matsui’s first half since all he’s done is hit, and hit he has. His .264-.367-.517 batting line is his best in years, and while the common perception might be that the New Stadium is artificially beefing up his numbers, Godzilla’s road OPS is more than 60 points higher than his home effort. While his knees look ready to explode whenever he has to run, Matsui’s a hitting savant that produces in all situations against any kind of pitcher regardless of what arm they throw with.
Expectations for the second half
Brian Cashman added some insurance in Eric Hinske not long before the break, which helps mitigate what would have been a disaster should another outfielder go down with injury. It’s tough to expect Damon to continue his career year, but a regression to his previous performance would be acceptable. The real question is whether or not Melky and Gardner can keep it up in center, because the Yanks have less than three weeks to decide if they need an upgrade.
I guess the expectation for the second half is what it was coming into the season, rock solid production but far from spectacular. Anything else is gravy.
First Half Review: Middle infielders
Posted by: | CommentsAt 51-37, with the third best record in baseball, leading the Wild Card and just three games back in the AL East, the Yankees had a fine first half. Yet it was a tumultuous three months, wrought with streaks and injuries and strange trends, causing mass panic at times among Yankees fans. Over the extended All-Star Break, we’ll go over each position to see what went right, what went wrong, and how things look for the second half. We already looked at the starting pitchers, relievers, corner infielders, and catchers, so now it’s time to take a look at the middle infielders.
The expectations
For one half of the double play tandem, the expectations were simple. Derek Jeter just had to be Derek Jeter. No, not Derek Jeter 1999, or even Derek Jeter 2006. Rather, we expected a solid Jeter season: around a .300/.390/.430 line. It’s the other side that had us scratching our heads.
Robinson Cano is a strange case. He was always known as a talented kid, but put up pedestrian numbers in the minors. Things started to look good in 2005, which was good timing because the Yankees were suffering through Tony Womack at second. He came up and was okay, but had stellar seasons in 2006 and 2007. Then came 2008, in which he started out slow and somewhat recovered. This made it tough to pin expectations on him, but I think most people expected him to at least hit .300 this season.
The results
The Yanks have been solid up the middle. They haven’t been great, though Jeter has been having a mighty fine season. The defense seems to be there, as both Cano and Jeter continue to play solidly to, in Cano’s case, occasionally phenomenally in the field.
Look around the league, though. Very few shortstop-second base combos both have OPSs over .800. Scutaro and Hill, Cano and Jeter, and that’s it. Even in Philadelphia Jimmy Rollins is slacking (though Chase Utley is destroying enough for both of them). We might expect a little more of Robbie, but that doesn’t mean the Yanks aren’t getting excellent production from their up-the-middle guys.
Derek Jeter
Jeter, believe it or not, has been better than expected. His .321/.396/.461 line has been a revelation in the leadoff spot. The new Stadium has added a bit to his slugging line, but he’s still hitting for average and taking his walks when needed. In fact, his walk rate is way, way up this year. Not only that, but his defense has been markedly better. Yes, we can see it with our own eyes, but UZR agrees, giving Jeter a 0.5 rating to this point. Good showing, Derek.
Robinson Cano
Cano, on the other hand, has had his ups and downs. His .308/.341/.490 line looks good, but it’s been wrought with streaks. From April 6 through May 1 he hit .378/.410/.592, which is just incredible. He couldn’t sustain it, though. From May 2 through June 1 he hit .248/.274/.434. So while there was some power, there wasn’t much average or walking. Cano was looking more like 2008 Cano.
He’s recovered a bit since, hitting .308/.346/.466 since June 2. That’s the kind of line you’d like to see him put up for the whole year. It includes 11 doubles, four homers, four walks, and 12 strikeouts.
The big complaint on Cano is his lack of hitting with runners in scoring position. He’s at a horrid .211/.248/.321 with at least a runner on second — though he’s at .308/.379/.654 with just a runner on second. Basically, he goes from a .947 OPS with the bases empty to a .705 OPS with runners on. That’s not going to cut it, Robbie.
It seems the key to Cano is throwing him a first pitch strike. He’s hitting .235/.249/.249 when the opposing pitcher throws him a first-pitch strike, as opposed to .329/.400/.541 when he avoids swinging at the first pitch out of the zone.
He can be better in the second half, for sure.
First Half Review: Catchers
Posted by: | CommentsAt 51-37, with the third best record in baseball, leading the Wild Card and just three games back in the AL East, the Yankees had a fine first half. Yet it was a tumultuous three months, wrought with streaks and injuries and strange trends, causing mass panic at times among Yankees fans. Over the extended All-Star Break, we’ll go over each position to see what went right, what went wrong, and how things look for the second half. We already looked at the starting pitchers, relievers, and corner infielders, so now it’s time to take a look at the catchers.
The expectations
The catching situation in 2008 was a mess once Jorge Posada went down with a major shoulder injury. Jose Molina was terrific defensively but was exposed offensively when playing every day, and a midseason trade for Ivan Rodriguez proved fruitless. As a result of the dismal showing last year, it was hard to expect anything but an upgrade this year. Sure, there were concerns about Jorge Posada’s ability to control the running game with this surgically repaired shoulder, but his bat was never in question. With Molina set to return to his usual backup duty, there was cause for optimism coming into this year.
The results
Yankee catchers have put up a .280-.335-.444 batting line, good for the fourth best OPS in the league even with Jorge Posada missing just about four weeks with a hamstring issue. When Jose Molina went down with a similar injury, straight outta Double-A Frankie Cervelli performed better that anyone could have ever expected on both sides of the ball.
Considering the team lost its top two backstops to injury at the same time, it’s impressive that the catching in the Bronx still ranks among the best in the league. Let’s talk about some of the individual pieces now.
Jorge Posada
If anything, last year’s injury reminded all of us just how important Jorge Posada is to the Yankees. He’s proven that his shoulder is fully healed by throwing out 20 of 67 potential basestealers, or 29.1%. That percentage is basically the same as the 29.5% gun-down rate Posada posted in his career before the shoulder started giving him trouble last year.
Offensively, Posada is producing at pretty much the same pace as always. While no one was expecting him to repeat his monster .338-.426-.543 season in 2007, Posada has again been an above-average producer behind the plate with a .285-.369-.508 line. As he goes the Yankees go.
Jose Molina
The best backup catcher the Yankees have had in some time, Molina’s defense seems to have taken a slight step back this year (just 25% of basestealers have been thrown out, well below his 41.4% career mark coming into ‘09) and you wonder if playing just about everyday last year is taking its toll on him now. Molina missed two months with a strained hamstring, but has quietly hit .271-.340-.375 when he has played. As always, Molina’s still at his best when he plays once every four days.
Frankie Cervelli
The new golden boy, Cervelli arrived from Double-A Trenton with dreamy eyes and a .190 AVG when Posada and Molina went down, and exceeded every possible expectation. He’s thrown out 10 of 21 potential basestealers (47.6%) and moved around behind the plate exceptionally well. Even though he hit just .269-.284-.346, Cervelli always seemed to put together quality at-bats and never failed to hustle down the line. A fan favorite, Cervelli was sent down to Triple-A to play every day once Posada and Molina returned to the full strength. His play over his two-month cameo all but earned him the backup catcher job for next year.
Expectations for the second half
I guess you could say the biggest expectation for the second half sn’t really an expectation at all, just hope that Jorge Posada remains healthy. He’s such an important part of the team both in the lineup and in the clubhouse. If he stays on the field, the Yankees will have arguably the most productive catcher in the majors (non-Mauer division), always a significant advantage. Molina and third stringer Cervelli provide adequate backup, but are a significant drop-off if pressed into everyday duty.
The Yankees have enviable catching depth at the moment, but just like pitching depth it can vanish in an instant. As an ex-catcher, I’m sure manager Joe Girardi will pay special attention to the workload Posada endures the rest of the season. Just stay healthy, that’s all we want. The rest will take care of itself.
