Archive for Offense
Was consistency really Brett Gardner’s problem in 2011?
Posted by: | CommentsYou know how if you repeat a word enough times, it loses all meaning to you? That’s the way I feel about the word consistency coming from baseball circles. That seems the solution to everything: Player A just needs to be more consistent (with the optional addendum, “in his approach”). Problem is, consistency is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve in a game as complex as baseball. At least, consistentcy as we commonly understand it.
No player will get a hit exactly three times in each set of 10 at-bats. No player hits a home run once every 17 plate appearances. Baseball is a game of streaks and slumps. Players help their teams immensely when they’re hot, and they hurt them when they slump. Even the best players aren’t immune to periodic slumps. It’s just the nature of the game.
Still, it seems as though some players are more prone to streaks and slumps than others. Take Nick Swisher for example. When you watch every game, it seems clear that he goes through periods of extraordinary production, followed by periods where he makes outs almost every at-bat. Last year it was easy to get the impression that Brett Gardner was likewise prone to streakiness. In an article on MLB.com, Bryan Hoch gets quotes from Joe Girardi, Kevin Long, and Gardner himself seemingly admitting that Gardner’s streakiness is a problem. But was that really the issue in 2012?
Again, it’s hard to determine exactly what everyone means by consistency. But a glance at Gardner’s 2011 game log makes it appear that streakiness was something of an issue. To start the season Gardner went 9 for 62 (.145) with four walks. He was also caught stealing in half of his six attempts. But after a 3 for 4 performance in a 12-3 rout of the White Sox Gardner broke out. From that point, April 28th, through mid-August he hit .314/.397/.429 in 374 PA. Again, look at his game logs during that period. it lingers in the .330 and .340 levels through May, mostly because he had to compensate for his poor start. But then it starts to creep up.
From June through mid-August he was consistently in the .350 to .360 OBP range. Yes, his numbers spiked and dipped a bit, but again, all ballplayers experience those little peaks and valleys. It seemed that Gardner was, indeed, rather consistent throughout this period. He was even more consistent on the base paths, successfully stealing a base in 80 percent of his 41 attempts. Unfortunately, he then slumped his way to the finish line, hitting .175/.281/.246 through his final 146 PA. He claims that he felt fine as the season wore on — “the best I’ve ever felt at the end of a season,” he said — but that didn’t translate into performance.
That brings us back to the idea of consistency, which seems no easier to define after examining Gardner’s 2011. His poor performances seem to come in the form of bookends, but does that mean he’s more consistent than we perceived? I don’t think so. Timing is an odd concept in baseball, and it often affects our perception. Two guys could have the same numbers during the course of a month, but we’ll view the guy who had a hot first half in a different light than we do the guy who had a hot second half. Yet they contributed roughly equally to their teams performances.
It’s difficult to work on an abstract concept such as consistency, especially in a game that is chock full of randomness. It sounds great, and makes for attention-grabbing headlines. But chances are Gardner has more specific, concrete things to work on: bunting, offering at pitches he can slap past infielders, and other things an undersized outfielder must do to succeed. If that makes him more consistent, all the better.
Pondering A Switch Atop The Lineup
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(REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
When the Yankees won the World Series in 2009, it was thanks in part to a subtle lineup change that yielded big results. Derek Jeter grounded into a career-worst 24 doubles plays in 2008, so Joe Girardi minimized his rally-killing opportunities by batting him leadoff rather than second. Johnny Damon dropped down a spot to the two-hole, where his unexpected power spike (career-best 24 homers in 2009) was a pleasant surprise. As a result, the Yankees had the best leadoff (132 OPS+) and second best number two hitter (126) production in the game that season.
Damon left as a free agent after that season, but Jeter has remained in the leadoff position ever since. Nick Johnson, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson have occupied the number two spot for the most part during the last two seasons, and Granderson is the obvious choice to do so again in 2012. With Robinson Cano apparently locked in as the number three hitter, Joe Girardi hinted yesterday that Jeter and Granderson could switch lineup spots like Jeter and Damon did three years ago, calling it “a possibility [we] could talk about.”
On the surface, it doesn’t make any sense. Granderson’s power would be minimized atop the lineup while Jeter — who is more of a ground ball hitter now than he was in 2009 — would again be more of a double play threat. The Yankees had the second best offense in the game last season (113 wRC+), and it’s very easy to say don’t fix it if it ain’t broke. This is Spring Training though, and there’s no harm in bouncing ideas around and trying things out on the field in meaningless exhibition games. Flipping Grandy and Jeter is a thought worth entertaining.
For one, Granderson’s power is masking his prototype leadoff hitter skills. Not only is he a stolen base threat (24 last year) and adept a taking the extra base (50% of the time since 2008, well over the 39% league average), but he’s also incredibly patient and makes the pitcher work. Curtis led baseball in pitches per plate appearances last season (4.44), and over the last four years his walk rate has settled in at 11.0% (12.3% in 2011). His inability to hit for a high average means his OBP will be in the .350-.360 range rather than .380+, however.
The typical leadoff man comes to the plate with the bases empty approximately 67% of the time*, which means a whole lot of Granderson’s homers would be solo shots if he bats atop the order regularly. That said, you can make the argument that having Grandy bat “behind” number nine hitter Brett Gardner (.364 OBP last two years) would give him more opportunities to hit with men on base than if he was hitting second behind Jeter (.347 OBP last two years). That’s a simplified look at it, but you get the point. There’s a case to be made.
* I’m willing to bet that number is a bit lower for Yankees leadoff hitters in recent years.
Derek's second favorite pastime. (REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
As for Jeter, his propensity for the twin-killing would be somewhat mitigated in the two-hole by Granderson’s extra-base ability. Remember, it’s not just about homers. He hits a ton of doubles (29 last year) and triples (ten) as well, and it’s hard to ground into a double play with the runner on second or third. Jeter’s affinity for a sacrifice bunt — which he does on his own quite often — would be a problem though. Laying down a bunt as the number two hitter means first base will be open when Cano is at the dish, which will lead to plenty of intentional and unintentional intentional walks. Taking the bat out of Robbie’s hands is never a good thing, particularly in the late innings of a close game (when the sac bunt is most effective).
Derek still makes a ton of contact (just 13.3 K% last year), so batting him second behind Gardner and Granderson would give Girardi the option to hit-and-run, a tactic I actually think is underutilized (in the right situation, of course) these days. Batting Jeter second would also split up Granderson and Cano, forcing the opposing manager to choose his spots with his lefty specialist a little more wisely. That’s not necessarily a good thing though, because both Grandy (since getting #cured) and Cano mash left-handed pitchers and you’d like them to face the inferior lefty rather than the superior righty. It would create a bit of a headache for the opposing manager in the late innings, but I think the actual benefit to the Yankees is up for debate.
I don’t think flipping Jeter and Granderson right now makes as much sense as flipping Jeter and Damon back in 2009, but it’s not the craziest idea in the world. Curtis would get a few extra plate appearances throughout the season and the opposing manager will surely make some foolish pitching changes along the way, but the downside is (theoretically) having fewer men on base for Granderson and Jeter’s ground ball double plays. The results could be considerable as we saw three years ago, and if doesn’t work, they could always go back to last year’s arrangement at any time. Consider me intrigued and in favor of giving the switch a try in camp.
Yanks’ slugger proposes bunting to beat the shift
Posted by: | CommentsBy all accounts, Mark Teixeira had a disappointing 2011 for the Yankees. After a stellar 2009 when he hit .292/.383/.565, Teixeira had a down year in 2010 with a .256/.365/.481 line. His slugging rebounded slightly to .494 last year but he hit .248 with a .341 OBP. At age 31, in his offensive peak, Teixeira shouldn’t see his numbers declining so drastically.
To make matters worse, Teixeira exhibited some drastic splits. Against right-handed pitchers as a left-handed batter, Teixeira hit .224/.325/.453 in 464 plate appearances, and it seemed as though he had been programmed for pop-ups. In an effort seemingly to blast home runs over the short right field wall, Teixeira got under too many pitches. Watching him hit left-handed grew painful.
Over the course of the season, Yankee fans grew frustrated with Teixeira. Why would he keep batting lefty? Why wouldn’t he do something to change his approach? Why wouldn’t he — gasp — bunt against the shift?
Now, I can’t stand this idea. Mark Teixeira was brought in to hit home runs and play a solid first base. He wasn’t brought in to bunt, and the Yanks shouldn’t be messing with his swing after a disappointing season. Still, Teixeira is seemingly open to the idea. Pete Caldera was at the Thurman Munson Awards Dinner on Tuesday night when the Yanks’ $180 million man started talking.
“I’ve been so against it my entire career, [but] I might lay down some bunts. If I can lay down a few bunts, beat the shift a little more the other way, then I’m right where I need to be,” he said. “Maybe I’ll lay down 20 bunts in spring and see what happens. If I’m 1-for-20, maybe I’ll have to go back to the drawing board.”
On the one hand, I like the idea of beating the shift now and then. On the other hand, the idea of Mark Teixeira bunting fills me with sheer unavoidable dread. In theory, it seems like a decent enough idea, but this is a baseball player who admitted he hadn’t bunted since high school, 14 years ago.
Teixeira had a .239 BABIP last year. That could indicate that he was largely unlucky or that could indicate that he was simply hitting too many ground balls or pop ups. He still blasted 39 home runs, and that’s why the Yanks have him. In January, it might be fun to suggest bunting. In April, he should be up there swinging away, in search of a more productive season. The bunting can stay at home.
A brief (and flimsy) case for Johnny Damon
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yankees traded away their designated hitter last Friday evening, they created a hole of sorts in their lineup. Most teams would love to enter Spring Training missing only a left-handed bat who could DH against right-handed pitchers, but for the Yankees, the need to fill this slot — not quite the 25th man but close enough — became their last remaining off-season to-do.
Long before the Montero-for-Pineda deal had time to marinate, the Twittering masses were throwing names around left and right. One involved a familiar face who was last seen in pinstripes in 2009. That, of course, was the 38-year-old Johnny Damon whose bat just hasn’t been the same since he left New York. Damon, who could be had for just a few million dollars, reportedly has approached the Yanks about the job, but the club hasn’t yet jumped. They’re waiting for something — maybe a lower price, maybe another move.
At first, I didn’t love the idea of reuniting with Damon. He was certainly fine during his tenure in the Bronx even if he never really held down that center field job for which he was originally ticketed in 2006. He made his mark on Yankee history with a key play in the 2009 World Series and left, as he did from Boston, wanting more money than the Yanks were willing to pay him. As he left, he claimed he always wanted to play in Detroit and later Tampa Bay. It just rubbed me the wrong way.
But rubbing us the wrong way shouldn’t have much to do with baseball analysis, and when it comes to Damon’s DH candidacy, the analysis has been lacking. Most pieces calling for his return resemble this one from The Post’s Back Page blog. They are appeals to emotion, to Damon’s clutchiness in the playoffs (while ignoring his 4-for-17 ALDS this year), to his True Yankee-ness. Some want Damon back because he reminds us of good times and great wins.
Forget that. Let’s make a real case for Johnny Damon. On the surface, his numbers aren’t that appealing. His walk rate dropped a bit, and he’s not getting any younger. His .742 OPS is fine, but the Yanks can effectively get his production vs. right handed pitchers from Andruw Jones without paying anything more. On the season, Damon OPS’d .715 vs. righties while Jones posted a .709 mark.
If we drill down even deeper though an alluring if shaky picture emerges. Outside of Tropicana Field against right-handed hitters, Johnny Damon had 221 plate appearances and posted a .291/.357/.477 line, good for a .364 wOBA. Even factoring in a decline as he gets older, production like that while playing home games in lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium could make Damon a potential steal for the Bombers. That argument though rests on what is effectively one-third of Damon’s 2011 campaign. I wouldn’t eat breakfast off a table that flimsy.
Ultimately, Damon could be an answer for the right price. The Yanks can jettison a $2 million failure; just ask Randy Winn. Or else the team could opt to use the DH for Derek Jeter and A-Rod while Eduardo Nunez gets too many at-bats before a bat finds its way to the trade market. They probably couldn’t go wrong either way. We don’t need to resort to emotion though to make a solid case for Damon. A sample size nearly too small to be significant will just have to do instead.
The 2012 Oliver Projections: Yankee Offense and Pitching
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(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty)
Our latest swing through projection-land brings us to The Hardball Times’ Oliver, the fourth of the six major offseason projection systems and perhaps also the angriest. Now obviously projection systems are devoid of emotion, but this being my third straight offseason of sifting through projection data I can safely say that Oliver dislikes the Yankees more than any other system, so as always, take these projections with a grain of salt.
For previous posts on the 2012 ZiPS, Bill James and CAIRO projections, click here, here and here. This time around, instead of taking you through the entire Yankee starting nine and projected rotation, I’m just going to touch on some of the more interesting/outlandish projections, saving us all some time in the process.
Part of the reason Oliver is hard on the Yankees is because it, like ZiPS, applies aging factors. Now I’m pretty sure some if not all of the other systems also do this to a degree, but Oliver and ZiPS seem to be the hardest on older players, and as we know, the Yankees have a fair amount of those, hence some of the aggressive projections. While in some cases the projections seem crazy — Oliver somehow had Curtis Granderson, no one’s idea of an old man, putting up a comical .336 wOBA in 2011 (his worst projection by far) and it also had Robinson Cano at .350 last year — in others the seemingly laughable projections were right on the money.
I remember thinking the system was near-worthless after it spat out a .244/.326/.401 (.321 wOBA) line for Jorge Posada in 2011, and Posada managed to underperform that, finishing the season at .235/.315/.398, .309 wOBA. The only other Yankee it more or less hit the nail on the head on? Alex Rodriguez, who Oliver had at .271/.356/.491, .365 wOBA for 2011, while Alex’s actual line was .276/.362/.461, .361 wOBA. That’s not exactly good news, as we saw in last week’s post about A-Rod’s contract.
The flip side of this, however, is that Oliver seems to really like younger players. Last offseason it projected a 3.71 ERA for Phil Hughes in 185 innings. Can you imagine how excited we’d all be if that had happened? Despite Phil’s poor 2011 campaign, Oliver still has a man crush on Phil, projecting a 4.08 ERA over 150 innings and getting his K/9 back over 7.00. Talk about carrying a torch.
Oliver also really liked it some Ivan Nova last offseason despite the fact that Nova had all of 42 Major League innings under his belt, projecting the righty to throw 145 innings of 4.25 ERA ball, which seemed crazy at the time. Nova of course wildly exceeded expectations, though Oliver isn’t fooled, and has Nova regressing to a still-respectable-for-the-back-end-of-the-rotation 4.33 ERA in 185 innings.
This year the role of Ivan Nova seems like it’ll be played by Hector Noesi, who Oliver projected a 2011 MLE line of 65 innings of 4.25 ERA ball with 7.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 despite zero Major League track record. Following a solid 2011 debut, Oliver again likes Noesi for a 4.25 ERA, only this time in 102 innings, with a 6.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 — numbers we’d all happily sign up for.
You’re no doubt curious about Jesus Montero. Last offseason Oliver forecasted a .284/.337/.497, .357 wOBA line in 152 PAs. This year, Oliver is projecting a .284/.339/.502, .360 wOBA line in 554 PAs. That’s the second-highest Oliver-projected wOBA among Yankee starters after Robinson Cano’s .363.
As for the Yankees’ one-time big guns, Oliver sees A-Rod falling to a .266/.348/.471, .355 wOBA line, which would represent a lower OBP but slightly more power than in 2011; while Mark Teixeira took the biggest hit by far, falling from a team-high .381 projected wOBA last offseason to .358 this winter.
As for the kids, Manny Banuelos is forecasted for 60 innings of 4.92 ERA ball with a 7.1 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9; Dellin Betances at 75 innings of 4.96 ERA ball with a 7.8 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9; while Adam Warren, David Phelps and D.J. Mitchell have MLB equivalencies of 140 IP/4.63 ERA, 143 IP/4.59 ERA and 144 IP/4.91 ERA, respectively.
For those wondering about Yu Darvish and what might have been, Oliver forecasts a 2012 MLE line of 207 IP, 2.46 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9, good for an astonishing 6.8 WAR. I think it’s fairly safe to say this won’t happen.
If you plug the starting nine’s 2012 Oliver-projected numbers into Dave Pinto’s Lineup Analysis, we get a starting lineup that projects to score 5.2 runs per game, the lowest projected rate we’ve seen thus far. As a point of comparison, the 2011 team as a whole averaged 5.35 runs per game. The “best” iteration of the Oliver lineup scores 5.209 runs per game and features Nick Swisher at leadoff.
The 2012 ZiPS-projected lineup averaged 5.3 runs per game, the James edition a hearty 5.7, and CAIRO’s spit out 5.6 runs per game. So again, it’s not terribly outlandish to claim that Oliver is not the Yankees’ biggest fan.
If the Yankees do nothing more this offseason, Oliver currently has them projected to finish tied for first place in the AL East with a 92-70 record, with the best record in the American League and third-best in baseball. Last offseason when I looked at the Oliver projections in January, the Yankees were projected to finish at 87-75 and 2nd place in the ALE. All things considered, that’s a pretty nice projection for a team that could still probably use a starting pitcher.
Yankee reserves over the years: A graphical look
Posted by: | CommentsIn the comments of my graphical look at Yankee starters’ ERAs over the last several years, reader Mike Myers asked if I could do a headshot graph for the Yankee relievers or bench players. Well, in the spirit of the holiday, ask and ye shall receive, so today comes a graphical look at the primary players the Yankees have employed as members of their bench since the 2003 season. Why have I been using that as a cutoff? Admittedly it was fairly arbitrary, but pulling these charts and headshots together is a pretty labor-intensive process, so I’m plenty happy to not go any further back. As you’ll see, the graph gets pretty crowded as it is.
In order to define who made the cut, seeing as how the Yankees generally utilize anywhere between five and 15 different part-time players over the course of the season between cuts, trades and September call-ups, I initially used 100 PAs as a benchmark. While I mostly stuck to that parameter, I did end up getting a bit lenient so that I could include some memorable names that perhaps didn’t quite reach the 100 PA threshold, but came close enough. I did not end up using anyone below 50 PAs, so this should at least be a fairly representative sample of the primary players the Yankees looked to to give a boost (or not) off the bench during their respective seasons.
As for how I graded them out, I decided to go with fWAR, to take into account both offensive and defensive contributions. It’s not perfect, but being that it also takes playing time into account I felt it’d help give a reasonably accurate picture of who helped and hurt the most in limited duty.
(click to enlarge)
While not an exact science, here’s how the individual fWARs for the players selected tally in each season:
| fWAR | |
| 2003 | 1.1 |
| 2004 | 0.3 |
| 2005 | -6.7 |
| 2006 | -2.5 |
| 2007 | 0.5 |
| 2008 | 0.3 |
| 2009 | -0.1 |
| 2010 | 1.3 |
| 2011 | 1.0 |
- I still don’t know how the 2005 team — who gave over 1,000 combined PAs to Tony Womack, Bernie Williams and Ruben Sierra and got -5.6 fWAR — won 95 games.
- Enrique Wilson wins the honors for worst Yankee of the decade, minimum 100 plate appearances. He accrued -2.4 fWAR over the 2003-04 seasons, which means he owes the Yankees $7.1 million for letting him anywhere a professional baseball field. Tony Womack was a close second, at -2.3 fWAR in just one terrible, terrible season. In fact, Womack’s 2005 is the worst season in Yankee history, minimum 100 PAs!
- And if we expand the list of cumulative numbers to go all the way back to 1901, Enrique Wilson remains dead last, which means he’s the worst player in Yankee history!
- The 2010 bench was arguably the best of this lot, with 2003 (paced by Juan Rivera, John Flaherty and Ruben Sierra) and 2011 right behind it. Although 2011 would’ve been tops by a strong margin had I not included Ramiro Pena and his -0.9 fWAR.
The Yankees’ Top Ten WPA Games of 2011
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(Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
Last month, Mike looked at the Yankees’ five biggest hits of the 2011 season in terms of WPA. Last November I did posts on both the 10 biggest WPA swings of the 2010 seasons and 10 biggest WPA games, and the annual tradition continues today with the Yankees’ offense’s top ten WPA games of 2011.
Fortunately Baseball-Reference can do the heavy lifting for us:
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russell Martin | 2011-08-25 | NYY | OAK | W 22-9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.559 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | 2011-05-24 | NYY | TOR | W 5-4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.509 |
| 3 | Derek Jeter | 2011-05-08 | NYY | TEX | W 12-5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0.452 |
| 4 | Curtis Granderson | 2011-09-17 | NYY | TOR | W 7-6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.400 |
| 5 | Russell Martin | 2011-07-18 | NYY | TBR | W 5-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.384 |
| 6 | Eduardo Nunez | 2011-09-21 (1) | NYY | TBR | W 4-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.379 |
| 7 | Robinson Cano | 2011-08-11 | NYY | LAA | W 6-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.378 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | 2011-09-01 | NYY | BOS | W 4-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.374 |
| 9 | Mark Teixeira | 2011-05-24 | NYY | TOR | W 5-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.372 |
| 10 | Nick Swisher | 2011-06-19 | NYY | CHC | W 10-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.367 |
We’ll go in reverse order to build the excitement. On Sunday night, June 19, 2011, the Yankees were looking for a series win against the Chicago Cubs after splitting the first two, losing in execrable fashion in the Friday afternoon game against Doug Davis of all people, while pulling out an exciting 4-3 win in the Saturday contest. Tied 4-4 in the eighth of the rubber game, Nick Swisher clubbed a huge tie-breaking three-run shot to send the Yankees to a big interleague series victory.
The Yankees’ second (out of only three they’d have all season) walk-off victory of the season against the Blue Jays on May 24 appears twice on this list, with the first instance representing Mark Teixeira‘s biggest game of the season. Down 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth, Tex laced a 3-1 Frank Francisco offering into right field for the game-winning single, scoring Curtis Granderson (who we’ll see in just a little bit).
The 8th-biggest game of the season belonged to Russell Martin — who appears three times on the list, a True Yankee™ if I’ve ever seen one — who delivered the decisive blow against Daniel Bard on September 1 in a Yankee victory that secured their first series win against Boston since May 2010.
Next up is Robinson Cano, who, in the Year of the Grand Slam — at least, for the Yankees, who hit an MLB-leading 10 slams for the second-straight season, including three by Cano, not to mention an 11th in the playoffs, also by Cano — appropriately blasted one in the Yankees’ 6-5 win over the hated Halos on August 11.
Everyone’s favorite infielder Eduardo Nunez clocks in at #6, as his huge game-tying home run against Yankee kryptonite James Shields helped propel them to eventual victory in the first half of a doubleheader on September 21 that also paved the way for the team to be in position to clinch during the evening portion of the twin bill, which they did in rather dramatic fashion.
Russell the Muscle is back at #5, with easily the most boring entry on this list, but still an important one nonetheless. On July 18 against Tampa Bay he went 2-5, but more importantly, worked a bases-loaded walk that forced in the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th in a game the Yankees held on to win 5-4.
The 4th-biggest game of the season was Curtis Granderson’s against Toronto on September 17, as he clubbed a home run, picked up three hits and walked twice as part of a perfect day, helping the Yankees battle back from a 6-1 deficit.
Derek Jeter checks in at #3, as his two-home-run game against Texas on Mother’s Day in a 12-5 victory over the Rangers was responsible for nearly 50% of the Yankees’ win that afternoon.
Coming in at number two is the Grandyman again, this time for that wild 5-4 come-from-behind victory on May 24 that also landed Tex on this list. While Tex may have picked up the game-winning hit, he may not have even been in position to do so without Curtis, who had four hits in this game including a double in the bottom of the eighth that keyed a two-run rally, bringing the Yankees to within one, and a game-tying RBI single in the bottom of the 9th that plated Jorge Posada. Grandy then promptly stole second on Francisco’s first pitch to Tex, and scored the game-winning run. Heck of a game for Mr. Granderson.
And the biggest cumulative WPA game of the season came courtesy of none other than Muscle Martin for his 5-5 performance in the three-grand-slam game (he also had a solo shot) on August 25. His slam came with the Yankees down 7-6 (.443 WPA) and gave them a lead they would never relinquish.
As noted earlier, if you were an opposing team you really didn’t want to load the bases against the Yankees in 2011, as they hit an insane .337/.354/.601 with the bases juiced in 2011, 39% (139 tOPS+) better than they hit on the whole, and 58% (158 sOPS+) better than the league average with the bases loaded.
On Montero and opposite field power
Posted by: | CommentsOver the last few years, we’ve heard quite a bit about Jesus Montero‘s power to right, the opposite field for him. We caught a glimpse of that opposite field power in September, when three of Montero’s four homeruns were hit out to right. For some perspective, Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp tied for the league lead in opposite field homers hit by right-handed batters in 2011. They each had nine, or three times as many as Montero in roughly ten times as many plate appearances.
Opposite field power is generally more impressive than pull power because for one, it takes a ton of raw strength. Making contact with a pitch that is essentially behind you and still driving it 350-feet isn’t something most baseball players can do with regularity. Secondly, it supposedly indicates a better approach and the willingness to wait on a pitch, letting it travel deep in the zone before swinging. That part is more up for debate that the raw strength part, but I certainly think it passes the sniff test.
Over the last three seasons, Nelson Cruz leads all right-handed hitters with a .417 wOBA to the opposite field. Miguel Cabrera is second at .409, and Derek Jeter of all people is third at .398. I only say “of all people” because we don’t think of Jeter as a power guy, but he certainly does a ton of damage the other way. That’s a good reminder that having opposite field power doesn’t necessarily have to mean just homers, it could also means doubles and triples. I don’t expect to see many three-baggers out of Montero, though. Over the last three seasons, righty hitters have averaged a .274 wOBA on balls hit the other way. Clearly, opposite field pop for a righty bat is a pretty scarce and valuable commodity.
Not to rain on the parade, but we have to remember that Montero still has a long way to go before proving that his opposite field pop is a sustainable thing in the big leagues. He had 69 plate appearances and put 44 balls in play in September, which is nothing. Five of Travis Snider’s first eleven homers in the show were hit to the opposite field, and none of the 17 he’s hit since them have gone the other way. This could vanish quick. It was fun to see Montero launch some bombs the other way late last year, and the scouting report indicates that this could be something more than a fluke. The kid sure does seem to have a swing geared for the small part of Yankee Stadium, and that’s pretty exciting.
The 2012 CAIRO Projections: Yankee Offense and Pitching
Posted by: | CommentsThus far this offseason we’ve taken a look at Dan Szymborksi’s 2012 ZiPS projections for the Yankees, which projects a Yankee starting lineup averaging 5.3 runs per game, and last month we reviewed the 2012 Bill James projections, which, as usual, were a bit more bullish, giving us a Yankee starting nine projected to pump out 5.7 runs per game.
Today we’re looking at SG’s 2012 CAIRO projections, version 0.2. The usual caveats apply, best summed up by SG himself: “Projections are inherently limited, so remember to take these for what they are. They are rough estimates of a player’s current talent level. They are not predictions for what a player is going to do in 2012, and they are not playing time predictions either.”
The other important reminder in reviewing these numbers is that SG doesn’t include baserunning in his wOBA calculation for CAIRO. (Edited, Monday, 12/12/11 at 8:45 a.m.): I was curious as to how exactly one might quantify the impact of stolen bases on an elite baserunner’s wOBA, and so according to an e-mail exchange I had with SG, “For 2011, Gardner’s 49 SB and 13 CS would add about .012 to his wOBA, so figure a range of .010 to .015. League average is probably more in the .000-.005 range depending on percentage. If you want to add SB/CS into my wOBA calculation, just use this formula:
.72 x BB + .75 x HBP + .9 x 1B + 1.24 x 2B + 1.56 x 3B + 1.95 x HR + .253 x SB – .437 x CS, divided by PA.”
So if one would like to, one could probably upwardly adjust CAIRO’s .324 wOBA projection for Brett Gardner to around .335, which, while still a bit lower than one would ideally like from Gardner, seems a bit more line with expectations.
Lineup
2011 CAIRO projection: .290/.360/.406, .342 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .297/.355/.388, .332 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .286/.345/.384, .325 wOBA
CAIRO really liked a bounceback for Derek last year, though he didn’t quite hit his projected line, even with his lightning-hot second half. And now in spite of said second half, CAIRO forecasts a return back to something approximating the 2010 version of Jeter.
2011 CAIRO projection: .252/.335/.462, .346 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .262/.364/.552, .394 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .263/.351/.502, .366 wOBA
CAIRO, like everyone else, underprojected Granderson last year, and also, like everyone else thus far this offseason, acknowledges Curtis’ big year but doesn’t see him coming close to hitting that well again. It’s important to keep in mind that CAIRO only has 19 players in all of MLB exceeding a .500 SLG (the only other Yankee being Robinson Cano), whereas 29 accomplished the feat in 2011. Knowing that, I would be surprised if Curtis only managed a .502 SLG.
Robinson Cano
2011 CAIRO projection: .306/.355/.511, .372 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .302/.349/.533, .375 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .303/.352/.504, .368 wOBA
CAIRO basically expects Cano to keep right on doing what he’s doing, which is of course great news for Yankee fans.
2011 CAIRO projection: .281/.372/.526, .384 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .276/.362/.461, .361 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .273/.363/.474, .365 wOBA
After dual .384 wOBA projections from CAIRO in 2011 — the two highest marks on the team — A-Rod‘s and Tex’s down 2011 seasons have resulted in considerably lower 2012 projections, though CAIRO thinks both can improve on their 2011 campaigns. Alec’s CAIRO projection is ostensibly what he did in 2011 with a little more power, which would of course be most welcome. For what it’s worth, ZiPS has him at only .264/.350/.474, which a healthy Alex should have no problem besting.
2011 CAIRO projection: .276/.377/.515, .384 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .248/.341/.494, .361 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .263/.359/.493, .368 wOBA
The good news is that CAIRO sees a significant spike in Tex’s OBP over 2011, although the bad news is that that .359 projection is still well below his .374 career mark. Tex is perhaps both the biggest question mark as well as the key to how well the Yankee offense will fare in 2012.
2011 CAIRO projection: .260/.354/.470, .357 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .260/.374/.449, .358 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .259/.356/.455, .354 wOBA
CAIRO, like Bill James, sees a drop in OBP for Swish in 2012, but slightly more power. I see Swish getting back to the .370 wOBA level.
2011 CAIRO projection: .261/.326/.446, .337 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .328/.406/.590, .421 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .267/.322/.470, .341 wOBA
With all of 69 career PAs to his name, Montero will likely be the Yankee with the widest range of projections. Bill James thinks Montero can hit for a .371 wOBA; CAIRO sees a lower but still more-than-respectable-for-a-21-year-old .341 mark.
2011 CAIRO projection: .263/.362/.380, .336 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .237/.324/.408, .325 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .253/.347/.383, .329 wOBA
CAIRO thinks Martin will gain some OBP but lose some power, ostensibly replicating his 2011 season. I think we’d all be fine with it, although it’d be great to see Martin check in closer to a .355/.430 OBP/SLG if possible.
Brett Gardner
2011 CAIRO projection: .270/.358/.372, .329 wOBA
2011 actual numbers: .259/.345/.369, .330 wOBA
2012 CAIRO projection: .262/.347/.371, .324 wOBA
CAIRO sees more of the same for Gardy, which is good and bad. The current iteration of Brett Gardner is obviously very valuable, but he could be downright deadly and a legitimate leadoff option if he can get his OBP back up to his 2010 level.
If you plug the starting nine’s 2012 CAIRO-projected numbers into Dave Pinto’s Lineup Analysis, we get a starting lineup that projects to score 5.6 runs per game. The 2011 team as a whole averaged 5.35 runs per game. Obviously the R/PG figure on the 2011 season is comprised of more than just nine players, but this provides something of a general vicinity for what one could reasonably expect out of the 2012 Yankee offense, if everything goes right. The “best” iteration of the lineup scores 5.708 runs per game and features Mark Teixeira at leadoff.
Starting Pitching
And here’s the pitching staff.
2011 CAIRO projection: 219.0 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
2011 actual numbers: 237.1 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
2012 CAIRO projection: 227.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
No commentary required.
2011 CAIRO projection: 116.0 IP, 5.24 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 7.8 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9
2011 actual numbers: 165.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 5.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
2012 CAIRO projection: 168.0 IP, 4.48 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 5.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
CAIRO thought little of Nova last year; his strong first full season has resulted in a considerably improved 2012 projection, though not one that Yankee fans can get terribly excited about. CAIRO sees regression for Nova across the board, although CAIRO also doesn’t know about Nova’s improved slider, which is probably the key to whether he can perform at a #2/#3-starter-type level going forward.
2011 CAIRO projection: 172.0 IP, 4.22 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
2011 actual numbers: 74.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 5.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
2012 CAIRO projection: 95.0 IP, 4.72 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
No one knows what to expect out of Hughes in 2012, though they won’t stop us from endlessly speculating about him. For the record, I feel bizarrely optimistic about Hughes in 2012, but it could also be the fanboy in me just refusing to die. The 2012 CAIRO projection seems eminently reasonable in the aftermath of what Hughes did in 2011, although a 4.72 ERA would still be massively disappointing.
2011 CAIRO projection: 187.0 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
2011 actual numbers: 190.1 IP, 5.15 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
2012 CAIRO projection: 190.0 IP, 4.88 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
Burnett is of course the other massive question mark in the Yankee rotation. Similar to the way I feel about Hughes, I am also cautiously optimistic on Burnett, although after the last two seasons it’s tough to expect much of anything out of A.J. One thing that may have escaped notice is that, despite his second straight awful year, A.J. still provided value (1.5 fWAR) due primarily to the fact that he still gave 190 innings and outpitched his ERA. While a 4.88 ERA would still suck, 190 innings of a 4.52 FIP would probably make Burnett close to a 2.0 fWAR pitcher, which, while not great, is better than nothing.
2011 CAIRO projection: 31.0 IP, 4.86 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
2011 actual numbers: 146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
2012 CAIRO projection: 102.0 IP, 4.28 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 5.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Freddy’s strong 2011 led to a significantly upgraded 2012 CAIRO projection, and one that is also probably a bit more realistic than Freddy’s actual 2011 results. Assuming Garcia is the 5th starter, there’s little to quibble with in his CAIRO projection.
2011 CAIRO projection: 80.0 IP, 5.08 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
2011 actual numbers: 56.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
2012 CAIRO projection: 79.0 IP, 5.44 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
Despite putting up solid numbers in relief in 2o11, CAIRO doesn’t think much of Noesi, and his projection has barely changed from a year ago before he had any experience at the MLB level. While it’s safe to say no one really knows what Noesi could do if he ends up getting a chance to start as a Yankee in 2012, I’m pretty sure he’ll be better than a 5.44 ERA/4.80 FIP pitcher, especially if he really is throwing 98mph.
No baseball for old men
Posted by: | CommentsFor the past few years, the Yankees haven’t exactly embraced the designated hitter position. In 2009, Hideki Matsui made 108 starts as the team’s primary designated hitter. In 2010, no one had more than 41 starts as DH, and this past year, Jorge Posada‘s 91 starts led the team as 10 other players also took their turns as the designated hitter.
This isn’t a new approach for the Yanks. As their core has gotten older, the club has embraced the idea of a rotating DH. Give one guy the bulk of the playing time, but keep the spot open to spell A-Rod, Jeter and even Teixeira and Granderson. It keeps everyone fresher, but on the flip side, it means more playing time for the likes of Eduardo Nunez. The Yanks are weakening their lineup without someone to fill the DH slot.
This winter, the Yanks are at a crossroads. They aren’t going to bring back Jorge Posada, and the market for DH types is thin. They could have explored bringing aboard an Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder type, but the Front Office feels that they have a fearsome enough offense without overspending for another first baseman. Plus, Jesus Montero lurks.
Once upon a time, I would have loved to see the Yankees pursue David Ortiz. Despite his generally whiny demeanor and the fact that he’s made a career out of beating the Yankees, Ortiz is a lefty power hitter custom built for Yankee Stadium. After a down year in 2009, he’s hit .290/.384/.542 with 61 home runs over the past two seasons. Even as he ages, he’s still an offensive force.
Yet, Ortiz has drawn nary a lick of interest. His signing would cost a team a draft pick, but I figured that an offensively-starved club — the Orioles, the Blue Jays, the Mariners — would eye Ortiz as a potential short-term solution. Instead, Big Papi is likely to accept arbitration from the Red Sox. Unless the two sides work out a longer solution, he’ll earn a small raise over his 2011 salary and stick with the Sox for another season. That is, frankly, one of the bigger surprises of the off-season.
For the Yanks’ one-time catcher, then, this Ortiz development isn’t a good sign. Jorge Posada is a few years older than Ortiz and isn’t quite the hitter any longer. He can still hit with some pop from the left side, and he doesn’t cost a draft pick. But teams don’t seem to be in the market for DH-only types right now. Rather, the DH slot is today reserved for those MLBers playing out the back ends of their long-term deals. It’s not really about finding a spot for a premiere offensive player who can’t field.
So as Ortiz stays with Boston and Posada rides off into the sunset, likely to scrounge up a Spring Training invite if he doesn’t just call it a career, the Yankees will head into 2012 with a youngster and a bunch of older guys as their designated hitters. Montero will get the chance to shine while A-Rod and his balky legs will need some rest. Jeter might DH a bit too as he nears his 38th birthday. This is what the DH has become, and it’s still far better than watching some pitchers attempt to bat.
