I don’t think we’ve ever had to do this, but that 500+ comment open thread sure is taking a while to load. Keep the party going here.
Open Thread: Heyman’s free agent predictions
The Yankees are off today and are traveling out to the west coast for the third time this year, so we’ve got some time to kill. While we wait patiently for tomorrow’s game, let’s take a look at Jon Heyman’s latest column, in which he guesses how much money various free agents will get this winter. Here’s what’s up with the Yanks’ impending free agents:
17. Johnny Damon, Yankees outfielder. Big year. But “better in Yankee Stadium,” the GM said.
Agent: $18 million, 2 years.
GM: Whatever the Yankees want to pay.
Me: $16 million, 2 years.
Did you know Damon’s hitting .154-.267-.154 since Sept. 3rd? Yikes. Anyway, I can’t see Damon getting two guaranteed years, at least not from the Yankees. Given his age, lack of defense, and considerable home-road splits, there will probably be a limited market for his services. My guess is one year, $5M with incentives and an option for 2011.
19. Andy Pettitte, Yankees starter. He says he’s undecided about a return. But everyone thinks he’s going back to the Yankees.
Agent: $10 million, 1 year.
GM: $11-12 million, 1 year.
Me: $12 million, 1 year.
Common sense says it’s Yankees or retirement. Pettitte’s base salary was $5.5M this year, but he’s already earned close to $3.5M in incentives with $2.5M or so not far off. Assuming the shoulder fatigue is nothing major, Pettitte should get more guaranteed money next year. I’m thinking one year, $9M with more incentives.
20. Hideki Matsui, Yankees DH. Big field of DHs may hurt him. Could replace Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle, the GM predicted.
Agent: $20 million, 2 years.
GM: $5-6 million, 1 year.
Me: $8 million, 1 year.
Matsui is a tough one. Everyone loves him, but designated hitters aren’t exactly in high demand. The anonymous GM Heyman quotes managed to make the Seattle-Japanese connection, but I think the M’s would turn to Russ Branyan to be their DH before dropping semi-big bucks on a free agent. I’m thinking one year, $5M tops, whether he stays in NY or goes elsewhere.
What do you guys think?
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Here’s your open thread for the evening. The Mets are in the Atlanta playing out the rest of their schedule, while the Angels will wuss out against the Red Sox again, this time on MLB Network. Me? I’m finally going to tear in NHL 10. Talk about whatever you want, just be cool.
Update: For those who don’t check his blog (which is what, two of you?), Pete Abraham is headed up the East Coast to work for the Boston Globe. Make sure to go congratulate him.
Sunday night open thread
Another game down and the Yankees are that much closer to clinching a playoff spot and the division. In fact, if Tampa loses to Boston tonight, not only will it be their 11th straight loss, it will officially eliminate them from the AL East race.
Anyway, while you enjoy the win, use this thread to talk about whatever you want. The ESPN Sunday night game is the Mets and Phillies, who actually played earlier today. Da Bears and Packers are your Sunday night football game. DotF will be along a little later tonight. Anything goes, just be cool.
Open Thread: On magic numbers
As of this writing, the Yankees’ magic number stands at 14. By itself, that magic number doesn’t really tell us too much though about the Yanks’ chances of making the playoffs. After all, they could have a magic number of 14 with 30 games left; they could have a magic number of 14 with, as they do now, 19 games left. In this day and age of exact baseball numbers, the magic number is a relic of another era.
Earlier this week, Walk Like a Sabermetrician proposed an adjustment to the magic number formula. Instead of a pure magic number, WLAS proposes a Magic Percentage. It is “the percentage of game outcomes that must go a team’s way in order for them to clinch. In this case, game outcomes include both the team in question’s games and the games of their opponents.”
He explains further:
Suppose that the race between the Alphas and the Bravos is shaping up like this, with ten games left for each team:
Alphas….91-61….599
Bravos….89-63….586The Alphas’ M# is 9. Again, that means that a combination of nine Alpha wins and Bravo losses will clinch the division. Since each team has ten games left, there are twenty total game outcomes outstanding, and 45% of them (9/20) must go the Alphas’ way. Therefore, their M% is 45%. Since I always feel compelled to write out a formula, here it is:
M% = (M#)/(2*g – W – L – oW – oL)
In other teams, the formula is Magic Number divided by the number of total games left for the first and second place teams. The Yankees have a Magic Percentage of 33. They need only 33 percent of the remaining games to go their way — that is, a Red Sox loss or a Yankee win.
There are some similar problems with Magic Percentage as Magic Number. It still pays to know how many games the team in question has left. But other than running Baseball Prospectus-style Monte Carlo simulations — the latest post-season odds report give the Yanks the East 99.4 percent of the time — this Magic Percentage is a step toward a better magic number.
Here’s your Saturday night open thread. There’s some college football on, some rain-delayed baseball games. You know the drill. Play nice.
Open Thread: The roster, restored
It always makes for a dull night when the Yankees are off, but having a day off with a nine game lead sure beats the alternative. Anyway, Matthew Pouliet at NBC Sports is running a series where he takes a look at what roster a team could field if you could only use players the club originally signed. Sorry that it’s from last weekend, we kind of pulled a LaRussa and fell asleep at the wheel on this one. Here’s the team the Yanks could field:
Rotation: Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Chien-Ming Wang, Jose Contreras
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Russ Springer, Phil Coke, Tyler Clippard, Manny Acosta, David Robertson, Jeff Karstens
Lineup: SS Derek Jeter, 1B Nick Johnson, C Jorge Posada, DH Hideki Matsui, LF Alfonso Soriano, 2B Robinson Cano, RF Juan Rivera, 3B Mike Lowell, CF Melky Cabrera
Bench: INF Cristian Guzman, OF Brett Gardner, OF Marcus Thames, C Dioner Navarro
Obviously the lineup is pretty damn good, and if nothing else the pitching staff has some promise. I guess there’s no room for Brad Ausmus, though. It’s pretty amazing that most of the pitching staff is made up of guys who came through the system pretty recently. It just goes to show that you can spend all the money in the world on pitching, but you still need to develop some of your own to contend.
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Here’s your open thread for the off night. The Mets play the Fish at 7pm, but more importantly, my domination of the RAB Fantasy Football League starts tonight. The Steelers and Titans kick off the 2009 NFL Season tonight in Steeltown, so your days are numbered, tsjc. Anything goes here, just be cool.
Open Thread: Escape from Toronto
Thankfully, this afternoon’s game was the last time the Yanks have to play in Toronto this year. I don’t know what it is, maybe it’s the unruly fans, the 1980’s astroturf, or the outdated signage, but the whole stadium just doesn’t seem like the kind of place you’d enjoy going to. The Yanks come home tonight and will play a pair against the fading Rays tomorrow, and frankly there’s nothing better than a day-night Labor Day doubleheader.
Use this thread to talk about whatever you like tonight. In case you missed it, the Brewers turned a triple play today, around the horn style. The Padres and Dodgers are your ESPN Sunday Night Game, but anything goes here. Just be nice.
Open Thread: Mo feels good
The most important groin in the history of the universe was tested today, as Mariano Rivera took to the Rogers Centre bullpen mound before this afternoon’s game for a 20-pitch bullpen session. Marc Carig reports that there were no ill effects, and Mo could be available as soon as tomorrow.
“Feels good,” Rivera said. “No problems at all.”
“I have to make sure to keep up with my things, keep up with that,” Rivera said of his treatment regimen.
Manager Joe Girardi said he will manage Rivera’s outings a little more carefully the rest of the month to make sure he’s good to go in the playoffs. With an 8.5 game lead in the division (thanks, Gavin Floyd) and the magic number sitting pretty at 19 (notice the counter in the sidebar) with just 26 games to go, that shouldn’t too tough.
Thank goodness Mo will be back soon, I don’t know how much longer I can stomach these “four batters faced, three strikeouts” performances I can handle from Phil Hughes.
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Here’s your open thread for the evening. The Tigers and Rays are on MLB Network, and there’s more college football than you’d know what to do with on TV. You can also come chill with me at MLBTR. Anything goes here, just be nice.
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