Archive for Pitching
A role, defined or not, for Joba
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Brian Cashman announced last week that Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would not have significant innings limits next season, he hedged his bets on the two youngsters’ true roles. “I look at them as starters that can relieve,” Cashman said. “But I look at them as starters.”
In one sense, that characterization gives the Yanks some flexibility. They know for a fact that Phil Hughes can be a lockdown reliever, and they believe he can be a dominant starter. They know for a fact that Joba Chamberlain can be a lockdown reliever, and they know that he can be a dominant starter. If knowing, as they say, is half the battle, well, then the Yankees are halfway there.
This flexibility gives them the opportunity to take a wait-and-see approach to this winter’s pitching market. They have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett inked in to the top two slots and will likely enjoy the services of Andy Pettitte as well. Behind those three await some combination of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin and Ian Kennedy with Al Aceves, Sergio Mitre and Chien-Ming Wang as potential options as well. John Lackey is out there; Roy Halladay is out there; Ben Sheets is out there. Any addition would be icing on the depth chake.
With this plethora of pitching comes some uncertainty though. Talking to reporters last night as his Wrap to Rap charity event, Joba noted that his role for 2010 remains undefined. Here’s how MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo put it:
As for Chamberlain, the Yankees have not yet told him whether he should prepare as a starting pitcher or a reliever. With Spring Training still three months away, Chamberlain has not even begun working out again, much less throwing…
By the time the postseason rolled around, the Yankees had decided to proceed with a three-man rotation, thereby relegating Chamberlain back to the bullpen. And his future remains unclear. The only hints he has received have come from general manager Brian Cashman, who said last week that he envisioned both Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as starters — but starters who are capable of relieving. “So he didn’t really answer the question,” Chamberlain cracked.
In a way, this is a spurious extrapolation by DiComo. The Yankees remained committed to Joba the starter throughout the 2009 season, and despite a late-season slide — possibly brought about by inconsistent rules — Joba met expectations. He stayed healthy throughout the season and made his starts to greater or lesser degrees of success.
The postseason, though, has a funny way of clouding perception. Although Joba’s overall October numbers were in line with his season totals, the eyes can tell a slightly different story. During the AL playoff rounds and World Series, Joba was indeed throwing a tick harder. During the playoffs, he averaged around 94/95 and dialed it up to 97/98, up a few miles per hour over his season numbers. That difference can turn Joba from an above-average pitcher to an elite one, and although he doesn’t have to sustain that velocity over the course of 34 starts, that it disappeared this year after it was there for 2008 led to a few questions this season.
In the end, as I mentioned in the comments to Joe’s post on Ben Sheets, Joba’s role may very well depend upon how the Yanks’ off-season unfolds. If the pitcher depth is there for the Yanks, they have the luxury of knowing that Joba (and Phil) can succeed in the bullpen, but on the depth charts, Joba probably has an edge for a rotation spot over Phil simply because he has the innings, experience and success under his belt.
In the meantime, Joba doesn’t mind the uncertainty. “It’s a great problem to have for Phil and myself,” he said. “We’ve been in situations and there’s a lot of things we can be. I think it’s an advantage for our team that there are so many different options to make us better for 2010.”
I believe Joba is a starter and should spend the off-season preparing as such. He doesn’t really need Brian Cashman to come out and say it, but we know it. When all is said and done, 2010 will seen Joba in the rotation, and the Yanks are better off for it.
Guess who doesn’t have an innings limit anymore
Posted by: | CommentsAmidst the news from the GM Meetings can word from Brian Cashman, via Chad Jennings, that both Joba Chamberlain’s and Phil Hughes‘ innings cap in 2010 will “not be significant.” After years of discussion about innings limits, the Yanks are ready to let their youngster loose, and it makes sense. Joba threw over 160 innings this year, and a 30-inning bump would put him at 190 innings. That’s a threshold reached by just 21 other AL pitchers in 2009.
The decision to let Hughes’ innings limit slide is of another nature. As Mike just noted, Hughes as a major part of the 2009 bullpen but threw only 106 innings because of it. At The Yankee Universe, Moshe Mandel speculates that a lack of an innings cap for Hughes is motivated by the 146 innings he threw in 2006. The Yanks may be willing to allow Hughes throw approximately 175 innings in 2010 because of that past.
Rotation depth and Joba’s 2010 role
Posted by: | CommentsFor Joba Chamberlain’s future development, his 2009 postseason work out of the bullpen — after staying healthy making 31 starts during the regular season — may just have been one of his biggest steps yet. Despite this October success though and despite his season-long presence in the rotation this year, nothing is guaranteed for Joba in 2010.
Joba Chamberlain had two distinct segments to his 2009 campaign. For the first three months — and not coincidentally, through his first 110.2 innings — he was masterful. After 20 starts, Joba was 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA. Although he was walking around 4.1 per 9 innings, his strike out rate was hovering around 7.88 per 9 IP.
After reaching his career innings high, though, Chamberlain’s effectiveness fell off the table. As the Yankees tried to manage Joba’s innings, they tried skipping his start just once and then put him through a limited form of Spring Training during which they attempted to build up his innings per start in preparation for the postseason. By the time Joba was back at 100 pitches, though, the Yankees had decided to stick with a three-man October rotation.
The numbers are ugly. Through August and September, Joba went 2-4 with a 7.52 ERA in 46.2 innings. He walked 26 and struck out 36 while opponents hit .316/.397/.515 against him. In July, before Joba struggled, we wondered if the Yanks should have allowed him more time in the minors, and later on, we learned that the Yankee braintrust wanted to send him down. They didn’t feel as though they had the pitching depth to do so.
Heading into 2010, though, as Joel Sherman writes today, the Yankees are preparing for more Major League-level pitching depth. The team will have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett fronting the rotation and expects to sign Andy Pettitte for at least one more season. Sherman adds more:
The Yankees? current intentions are to have Chamberlain and Hughes show up in spring training ready to start. They also may ask [Alfredo] Aceves to come prepared to be stretched out. [Ian] Kennedy also is expected to be ready in full, and the Yankees think farmhands Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister are close to major league ready.
In addition, I have been told the Yankees almost certainly will pick up the $1.25 million option on Sergio Mitre and tender a contract to Gaudin, who is not a free agent until after the 2011 season.
None of this news is too ground-breaking, but it gives the Yankees options. More starting pitchers will give the Yanks the flexibility to work with Joba as he matures and grows into a starting pitcher who will throw in the upper 90s as he did out of the pen in the playoffs while attacking the zone. More starters will allow the team to develop Phil Hughes into a confident hurler who can use that great curveball and mid-to-upper 90s fastball to keep hitters guessing.
Right now, Mitre and Gaudin are hardly going to calm the nerves of Yankee fans. The two of them are back-end starters at best, and even though the Yanks, as Sherman reports, believe they have helped Gaudin improve his delivery to generate more downward motion, the team knows what to expect. Perhaps the Yanks will look at John Lackey; perhaps they’ll kick the tires on a Randy Wolf type.
For now, though, the team is content with what they have. After all, this rotation just delivered a World Series championship, and Joba and Phil will only get better. If they don’t, we know the two can excel in the bullpen. But until they fail, they’ll get every opportunity to succeed, and pitching depth simply gives the Yanks a chance to develop them properly without being held hostage at the Major League level. If Joba needs to get sent down next year, if the Yanks’ coaches need to have another sit-down with him next season to refocus him, that depth will allow them to do so. As Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay show, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen to the young starter.
How did Pettitte fare after high stress starts in 2009?
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Later on tonight, Andy Pettitte will make his final start of 2009, for better or worse. As you know, he’ll be working on three days’ rest for the first time since 2006, and many fans are concerned about how the 37-year-old will rebound on short rest. While his stats on three days’ rest are pretty good (3-1, 2.80 ERA in five career short rest starts in the playoffs), the data is so old and not indicative of anything that it might as well be recorded in hieroglyphics.
Instead of relying on those numbers, let’s take a look at how Pettitte fared on normal four days’ rest following what I’ll call “high stress outings” in 2009. By “high stress outings,” I mean starts in which Andy threw a lot of pitches while allowing lots of baserunners in not many innings. Think 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 3 BB kind of outings. Then, by looking at how he performed four days later, it’ll give us an approximation of what Pettitte will do tonight. It’s obviously not a perfect comparison, but it’s better than pretty much anything else we have right now.
Game Three over the weekend wasn’t kind to Andy, but he battled through six innings while putting eight men on base and letting four runners cross the plate. He threw 104 pitches, so it would definitely be considered a “high stress outing.” Let’s see how Pettitte rebounded from similar starts this year.
High Stress Outing: April 26th @ Boston: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 R, 116 pitches, -0.14 WPA
Next Start: May 1st vs Anaheim: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 5 R, 111 pitches, +0.02 WPA
HSO: May 18th vs Twins: 6.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 4 R, 105 pitches, -0.03 WPA
NS: May 23rd vs Phillies: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 114 pitches, -0.11 WPA
HSO: June 3rd vs Texas: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 4 R, 104 pitches, -0.17 WPA
NS: June 8th vs Tampa: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 R, 104 pitches, +0.06 WPA
HSO: June 25th @ Atlanta: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 R, 95 pitches, -0.23 WPA
NS: July 1st vs Seattle: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 98 pitches, +0.17 WPA
HSO: July 6th vs Toronto: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 6 R, 109 pitches, -0.20 WPA
NS: July 11th @ Anaheim: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R, 83 pitches, -0.32 WPA
HSO: August 21st @ Boston: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 R, 105 pitches, +0.05 WPA
NS: August 26th vs Texas: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 R, 103 pitches, +0.23 WPA
I was going to break it down start-by-start, but after recapping the first one, I gave up because all I would be doing is giving too much credit to the already small sample size. It wasn’t worth the time.
So anyway, that’s six instances this season when Andy really had to work hard to get outs, then had to come back and pitch four days later. In those six follow-up starts, Pettitte averaged 6.1 IP, 6.2 H, 2.5 BB, 3.7 R, 102.2 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is not great, but it’s certainly serviceable. The good news that with exception of that July 1st start against the Mariners, all of the follow-up starts came against good offensive clubs, so the data isn’t too skewed.
Pettitte’s average start this year was 6.1 IP, 6.0 H, 2.4 BB, 3.2 R, 103 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is ridiculously close to his average in those follow-up starts. The biggest difference is that he allowed half a run more following a real tough outing, which is probably just a BABIP thing since the number of baserunners and innings pitched are nearly identical. I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by the results.
Of course, these starts come on regular four days’ rest in the middle of the season, not three day’s rest after Pettitte already has 219.2 IP on his left arm. We can arbitrarily dock him an inning and tack on another run, meaning we should expect 5+ innings and about 5 runs tonight, but that’s nothing more than guesswork.
What I wanted to see with this post is how Pettitte rebounded after a taxing start, and as you can see above, he generally didn’t suffer any sort of hangover. It’s far from a perfect analysis, but it’s much better than just assuming he’ll do bad for no other reason than because you have a bad feeling about it.
Photo Credit: Brian Kersey, UPI
Burnett’s history of pitching on three days’ rest
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Tonight, in the first elimination game of the 2009 World Series, the Yankees will send A.J. Burnett to the mound on just three day’s rest. The tactic makes sense. The alternative is Chad Gaudin, who hasn’t started a game since late September and who has a well-documented deficiency when facing left-handed hitters. With such a significant drop-off between the Yankees third best starter, Andy Pettitte, and their fourth, Gaudin, the choice was not a difficult one.
Burnett has experience starting on three days’ rest, and most of it came in the 2008 season with Toronto. His performance in those games might have helped influence Joe Girardi’s decision, so let’s take a look at exactly what happened when Burnett took the mound a day earlier than normally scheduled.
July 4, 2004
Burnett underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2003 and made his return in June, 2004. He had a few blips, including a 4.1-inning, eight-run outing against Cleveland, but generally pitched well in his first month back. Unfortunately, the Marlins could not pick him up, losing each of Burnett’s six starts that month. This included back to back starts in which Burnett allowed just two runs over seven and eight innings.
On July 4, the Marlins called on Burnett to start on three days’ rest against the Tampa Bay Rays, against whom he had thrown the aforementioned eight-inning game. He didn’t pitch quite as well, allowing three runs over 7.2 innings, but it was enough to earn his first win of the season. He struck out six Devil Rays that day, including Carl Crawford to lead off the game. Atypical of Burnett, he also didn’t issue any walks — though Tampa Bay drew the fifth fewest walks of any MLB team that season.
It might seem strange for Burnett to start on three days’ rest so shortly after recovering from elbow surgery. That seems like the kind of move that could lead to a relapse. Burnett, however, had thrown just 30 pitches on June 30, leaving the game two batters into the second inning after allowing five hits and walking two. That light workload made the short-rest start make a bit more sense.
July 13, 2008
Burnett started off July 2008 with two horrible starts. In seven innings against the Angels on Independence Day, Burnett allowed eight runs, six earned, on 12 hits over seven innings. The next time out he allowed seven runs on seven hits and three walks over 5.1 innings to the Orioles. Why, then, would the Blue Jays bring back Burnet on there days’ rest to face the Yankees on July 13?
I’m not quite sure. It was the last game before the All-Star Break, so perhaps Cito Gaston didn’t want Burnett to have such a long layoff. Whatever the reason, it worked. Burnett took a shutout into the ninth inning, though Jason Giambi ruined it with a solo home run. B.J. Ryan came on after a Jorge Posada single to record the final two outs. Still, Burnett was magnificent, and it’s one of the reasons that the players lobbied the team to sign him over the off-season.
September 13, 2008
At the end of August, Burnett found him with quite the challenge. On the ledger for his final three starts of the month: the Yankees twice, with Boston in the middle. While the Blue Jays were out of the race, it was still an audition for both teams. He killed the Yankees, but faltered a bit against the Red Sox. He’d get his chance for redemption against them, though, as Gaston named him the starter on September, just three days after his seven-inning, one-run performance against the White Sox.
It wasn’t an easy six innings for Burnett, as he used 102 pitches, walking three. But at the end of the sixth he had allowed just one unearned run. The Blue Jays went to town, scoring eight runs in support of their free-agent-to-be, helping him pick up his 18th win of the season.
The phantom three days’ rest start — April 16, 2008
When looking up Burnett’s short-rest starts, I first went to his Baseball Reference splits page, where it says he has started four games on three days’ rest. Yet I found only three such games. It comes down to a nitpick: does a start count as being on three days’ rest when the previous appearance was in relief?
On April 16, 2008, then-Blue Jays manager John Gibbons called on Burnett to come into the 14th inning of a game at home against the Rangers. It was tied 5-5, and the Blue Jays needed some more innings out of a dwindling pen. He had last pitched on April 13, also against Texas, and didn’t pitch particularly well in that start, allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. It seemed curious that Gibbons would call on Burnett two days later, but he did and paid for it. Burnett allowed two runs on three hits and a walk in the 14th, leading to a 7-5 Blue Jays loss.
Then, three days later, Burnett came out to start against the Tigers. It was six days after his last start, but just three days after his last appearance. He allowed three runs over five innings, walking six in the game. It was easily his worst start on three days’ rest, yet the Blue Jays offense put him in line for the win, his second of the season (the first was against the Yankees in his first start of the season).
In a way, I don’t want to count it because the start on three days’ rest did not follow another start, but a relief appearance. Then again, Burnett did throw 24 pitches in that span, six short of the 30 he threw on June 30, 2004, which he followed with a start on three days’ rest. Is there much of a difference there? I thought so at first, but I’m not so sure after thinking it over some more.
None of this guarantees Burnett anything tonight. It proves that he’s physically capable of throwing on three days’ rest and succeeding, but that’s about it. Knowing his track record is a bit reassuring, at least.
Will the Phillies give the Yankees an advantage in Game 4?
Posted by: | CommentsWhen a road team splits the first two games of a postseason series they’re said to have an advantage. The series goes back home even, and then it’s a best three of five, with the formerly disadvantaged team hosting the first three games. It would seem that home field advantage switched, but if the advantaged team takes just one game, they guarantee a return trip, winning back the advantage.
The Yankees have to win at least one game in Philadelphia to stay alive. With Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia starting the next two games, they have a good chance to do that. They’ll match up against Cole Hamels and then either Joe Blanton or J.A. Happ, and with the way Hamels is pitching it looks like the Yankees have the advantage in both games. That is, unless Charlie Manuel decides to start Cliff Lee on three days’ rest in Game 4.
That’s the advantage the Yankees have over the Phillies right now. They’re taking their three best pitchers and riding them to the end. The tactic comes with certain risks, but at this point in the season it’s the best call for the Yankees. The alternative is Chad Gaudin, who hasn’t started a game since September 28 and who doesn’t match up well against the Phillies lefties and switch hitters.
The Phillies are fortunate that their two options are better than Gaudin, but they’re not the best options. Their best option is to match Lee for Sabathia. Instead of the Yankees best against the Phillies fourth or fifth best, it’s the best against the best again, and that worked out well for Philadelphia the first time. The risk is that Lee has never pitched on three days’ rest in his career.
The risk in starting a pitcher on three days’ rest is that he won’t fully recover between starts and pitch ineffectively. They do, however, have different training schedules when pitching on short rest. CC says he loves pitching on three day’s rest because it means he doesn’t have to throw a bullpen. For a guy pitching as well as Cliff Lee, there shouldn’t be much concern.
Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee will make the call, but unless there is a concern specific to Lee, I think they’ll go with him on short rest. If not, they’ll give the Yankees an advantage in pitching match-ups. After accomplishing their goal of splitting the games in New York, why would they do that?
Eiland a big part of pitching success
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When good players fail, fans tend to blame the coaches. Since the team can’t fire the players, the coaching staff is the next logical target. When the Yankees struggled earlier this season, fans laid the blame on two coaches in particular. First was the obvious one, manager Joe Girardi. The manager always takes the blame when a team, good or bad, fails. It’s to be expected.
The other target was pitching coach Dave Eiland. Brian Cashman had spent $243 million over the off-season to improve the pitching staff, and they were not performing anywhere near expectations. After the Red Sox completed a two-game sweep of the Yanks in early May, the staff had a 5.86 ERA in 233.1 innings, striking out 189 to 113 walks. They’d also surrendered 32 homers, many of which came at the new Stadium. Eiland was also an easy target in this situation.
Eiland, whom the Yankees hired after he retired from playing in 2002, didn’t help himself out with the media. His staff had improved since the Red Sox series, lowering its ERA more than a full run by June 8. But then the Yankees ran into the Red Sox again and faced yet another three-game sweep. The middle game, a 6-5 loss, featured another poor performance from Chien-Ming Wang. “I can’t go stand behind the mound with him during the game,” said Eiland, seemingly throwing his pitcher under the bus.
That’s not what Eiland meant — or at least not what I think he meant upon further consideration. At the time, it sounded like he was trying to deflect the blame he had been receiving all season. But after watching Wang struggled through another month before succumbing to a shoulder injury, it’s clear what Eiland meant. You can work with a guy every day to help him get back in form, but if he’s not executing when it counts, there’s little else you can do. Eiland understood this and he tried to explain it to everyone, but his words didn’t work at the time.
The Yankees staff performed well for the rest of the season, and the criticism of Eiland dwindled. Even with two pitchers, A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain, struggling in August, fans didn’t point to Eiland. Instead they put the blame where it belonged: with the pitchers themselves. Eiland can help them prepare for games, but if they can’t find the strike zone, or if their best pitches don’t have any bite, there’s not much he can do from the bench, other than walk to the mound once an inning. But something tells me he won’t explain it that way to the media.
How do we know that Eiland is the right man for the job? His colleagues speak highly of him, as Marc Topkin writes in the St. Petersburg Times (hat tip Pinto). This ranges from GM Brian Cashman to farm director Mark Newman, from manager Joe Girardi to the pitchers he coaches. Perhaps the most endearing remarks from from his players. When describing Eiland’s skills as a listener, Andy Pettitte, with whom Eiland pitched at AAA Columbus in 1994, describes him as, “Almost like a wife.”
One of this year’s notably struggling pitchers, Joba Chamberlain, is equally impressed with Eiland. “He’s not afraid to kick you in the behind. And he means it when he comes at you.” The two will try to figure out what went wrong with 2009 and correct it for 2010. It seems that at the very least, Chamberlain is receptive to Eiland, which could help the pitcher in the future. I’m sure both have noticed this (Eiland is reputedly big on video), and hopefully they can get Chamberlain back on track during Spring Training.
Why is Eiland a good pitching coach? Ask the people around him and you’ll get a few different answers, ranging from his having to “fight for everything he got” (Girardi) to simple that, “He had it” (Newman). Ask Eiland, though, and he’ll tell you that it’s because he wasn’t that good a pitcher himself.
“In reality, I gave it all I could,” Eiland said. “I threw 87-89 miles an hour, but I thought I had a pretty good feel for pitching and for my delivery. I had to be almost perfect when I pitched to be successful. I didn’t have that God-given talent, the 90-plus mph fastball, things like that. But I felt like I had everything else.”
It’s easy for fans to blame coaching staffs when results don’t meet expectations. This goes especially when good players struggle. Fans criticized Eiland when the pitching staff wasn’t doing well, but those times are behind us. The staff picked it up as the season rolled along, and has shined in the playoffs. Eiland deserves part of the credit for that.
Pettitte: ‘I wasn’t real happy with the contract’
Posted by: | CommentsThis probably comes as little surprise to Yankee fans, but Andy Pettitte, in an interview with the L.A. Times today expressed his displeasure with the way his off-season negotiations with the Yankees ended up last winter. The veteran lefty made it clear that he wanted to return to the Yanks, but Brian Cashman and the New York brass, concerned about Pettitte’s shoulder strength, offered him a low base salary with high incentives. Although Pettitte stands to earn nearly $10 million total this year, he felt slighted by the Yanks over the winter. He is, however, over it. “I think everybody knows I wasn’t real happy with the contract,” Pettitte said. “But I wanted to take it and come back here and have a chance to do this. It’s nice to have things work out the way you think they’re going to work out. This is what I was kind of hoping for.”
The Yankees and Pettitte will probably engage in a similar dance this off-season but with a few different assumptions. Pettitte has certainly earned himself a higher base salary for 2010, and I’m sure the Yankees will keep the door open for Number 46 if he wants to return. I wonder, though, if Pettitte might retire if the Yankees win the World Series. Five rings fills up a hand.
Eiland: Hughes’ problems mechanical
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the main reasons why we’re anxiously waiting for the clock to strike 8:20 tonight is Phil Hughes. The Yanks’ youngster who dominated the 8th inning this year couldn’t get the job done against the heart of the Angels’ lineup on Thursday, and he has now allowed nine hits and three earned runs in 4.2 innings this October. Speaking with MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli yesterday, Dave Eiland said that Hughes has to fix a mechanical flaw in his delivery. “[It's] just a minor adjustment and he knows it,” Eiland said. “It’s just staying within yourself — just trust it and not trying to make that good stuff you have even better. Because you do that [and] you get a little jumpy, you get a little quick through your delivery and you affect your command. And that’s what is happening.”
The Yankees still trust Hughes, as they should, and odds are good that he plays a key role in tonight’s Game 6. Hopefully, the work Eiland and Hughes put in yesterday and today have solved the problem, and the Bridge to Mo will remain ever strong.
Yanks make the right call by tabbing Sabathia for Game Four start
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With the Yankees heading to Anaheim sporting a 2-0 series lead in the ALCS, Joe Girardi announced earlier tonight that they’re going for the kill and will start CC Sabathia in Game Four on Tuesday night. It’s the first time the big guy will start on three days’ rest as a Yank, and naturally some fans are a bit concerned that the team may be pushing their ace too hard in a non-must win situation. That’s fine, but giving the ball to Sabathia in Game Four is absolutely the right move for several reasons.
First off, starting on three days rest is nothing new to CC. You’re all aware of his heroics with Milwaukee down the stretch last year, and all told he’s made four starts on short rest in his career. The results? How about a .172-.230-.183 batting line against and a 1.01 ERA (1.93 FIP) in 26.2 IP? Sure, most of that was against NL lineups full of September callups, but those games were absolute must-wins for the Brew Crew, and Sabathia was certainly up to the task time and time again. He’s done this before, and knows what he needs to do to prepare himself for the start.
Secondly, the reason the Yankees are comfortable doing this now is because they went out of their way during the season – particularly late in the season – to make sure they didn’t overwork CC. His ALCS Game One start came on eight days’ rest (because they swept the Twinkies), and his final four starts of the regular season came on at least five days’ rest (and one was on six days’ rest). Even counting his two postseason starts, Sabathia has thrown 8.1 fewer innings in 2009 than he did in just the regular season last year. They kept him fresh for this very reason, to ride his left arm in games that actually mean something.
Another thing to consider is that at this point, the only other option for that Game Four start is Chad Gaudin, and he last appeared in an actual game 16 days ago. For all the uncertainly surrounding Sabathia on short rest, Gaudin is just as much of a question mark right now. We saw how rusty Al Aceves was in his first inning of work Saturday night, and that was after a mere seven-day layoff. I know that Gaudin beat the Angels in Anaheim less than a month ago, but come on, it’s one start. It’s indicative of nothing. I think everyone in Yankee Universe would prefer Sabathia at even 80% to Gaudin at 100%.
Even if the Yankees win Game Three tomorrow afternoon and go into Tuesday’s game with a commanding three games to none series lead, starting CC in Game Four is the right way to go because it guarantees that you can get two more starts out of him against a very good team in a short series. We all learned the hard way in 2004 that getting the final win of a playoff series is the hardest one, and having a pitcher like Sabathia available to start twice in final four games of a seven game series is a huge, huge advantage.
In the end, it doesn’t matter what you or I think, the Yankees are going to go ahead and run Sabathia out there in Game Four hoping he can either clinch a trip to the World Series or give the team a 3-1 series lead. They’ve gone to great lengths to ensure he’s rested and prepared for such a start, and starting Sabathia on short rest not only gives the team the best chance of winning that game, but the winning the series as well.
Photo Credit: Reuters Pictures
