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James Paxton may’ve been tipping his pitches in Houston, but command is his biggest problem right now

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(Presswire)

Three starts into the new season, prized offseason pickup James Paxton is sitting on a 6.00 ERA (4.41 FIP) in 15 innings. He’s allowed eleven runs and put 26 runners on base. Opponents are hitting .328/.388/.577 against him. That is capital-B Bad. It’s also three starts. Paxton has had one good start, one okay start, and one bad start. The start of his Yankees career has been uneven at best.

“One result or another is always attributed to (playing in New York) when the reality is, more often than not, it’s baseball,” Aaron Boone said yesterday regarding Paxton’s start to the season. “Results, especially early in the season, can sometimes be a little mixed and fleeting and in and out, and we attach a reason to it rather than the game’s tough, and guys get in and out of locked in.”

The Astros worked over Paxton in his most recent start, scoring five runs and putting eleven men on base in four innings plus two batters. He faced 21 batters and nine saw at least five pitches. The Astros swung and missed only eight times at Paxton’s 95 pitches and they fouled away 26 total pitches, including 14 with two strikes. Those 14 two-strike foul balls were the fifth most in his career. The Astros were on everything.

Yesterday Paxton revealed he was tipping his pitches in Houston. Specifically, there was a tell that allowed runners at second base to pick up his curveball, which they then relayed to the batter. Paxton said special assistant Carlos Beltran picked up on it and showed him the video when the team returned to New York. Generally speaking, pitchers don’t talk about tipping pitches until they correct it, so Paxton must believe he’s corrected it.

“I did find out I was tipping my pitches when there were guys at second base, so they knew what was coming,” Paxton said to Zach Braziller over the weekend. “They were fouling off some pretty good pitches, taking some pretty good pitches. There were stealing some signs. So that’s didn’t help … (They) could see if I was going soft or hard.”

Boone confirmed the Yankees suspected something was up during Paxton’s start — “We realized there was probably something going on from behind, that guys could potentially pick up with him here and there,” Boone said — but added this has not been an ongoing problem, and that Paxton’s issues in Houston went beyond tipping pitches. His stuff wasn’t crisp and his command was not good.

“I just don’t think he was real sharp in his last start,” Boone said. “Stuff wasn’t his electric stuff that we’ve seen at times, and just a little bit off with his command. Again, going back to a number of hitters that got to be really long counts for him, where he’s having a hard time putting away guys and part of that’s a credit to the Astros hitters, who made it tough on him. It really extended his outing and made him work really hard even when he was getting outs.”

Despite all the traffic on the bases, Paxton faced only five batters with a runner at second base during his start in Houston. Here’s what those five batters did:

  • George Springer: Four-pitch 6-4-3 double play in the second.
  • Yuli Gurriel: Six-pitch walk in the third.
  • Tyler White: Nine-pitch strikeout in the third.
  • Aledmys Diaz: Runner thrown out at second on second pitch of the at-bat to end the third.
  • George Springer: Seven-pitch strikeout in the fourth.

Some long counts there, for sure, but if Paxton was truly tipping pitches to the runner at second base, it didn’t hurt a whole lot beyond the pitch count. Paxton faced five batters with a runner on second, one at-bat was cut short by baserunning buffoonery, and only one of the other four batters reached base. That’s all.

Paxton faced 17 batters without a runner at runner at second base Wednesday — there were quite a few first-and-third situations that avoided a runner at second — and ten of the 17 reached base. Ten of 17! Good gravy. That doesn’t mean tipping pitches to the runner at second wasn’t a problem that needed to be addressed, but focusing on the pitch-tipping is missing the forest for the trees. There was more going on in Houston.

Three starts into the season, the numbers on Paxton’s stuff are right where they were the last few years. There hasn’t been a decline in velocity or spin or swing-and-miss-ability. The numbers quick:

Fastball Curveball Cutter
% Velo Spin Whiffs % Velo Spin Whiffs % Velo Spin Whiffs
2017 65.5 95.5 2,263 23.2 21.4 80.4 2,022 41.0 10.7 88.8 2,102 37.3
2018 63.6 95.4 2,283 25.6 21.5 81.1 1,949 39.9 14.4 89.0 2,107 37.1
2019 65.4 95.0 2,292 23.1 14.7 80.5 1,988 33.3 19.9 87.9 2,127 40.9

It’s reasonable to expect Paxton to add a little velocity as the weather warms up, so everything is right where it needs to be in mid-April, and that’s good. A sudden drop in spin rate or whiff rate would be worrisome. Paxton should maybe throw a few more curveballs going forward, though that’s an easy fix, and his curveball usage rate isn’t that much lower than usual. It could be back to normal quick.

Watching his last two starts, it seemed to me Paxton’s command was the biggest issue, not stuff and tipping pitches to the runner at second base. He fell behind in the count a little too often, was over the heart of the plate a little too often, and maybe a little too predictable as well. Paxton has always thrown a ton of fastballs because his fastball is so good. A few more curveballs and cutters to change the scouting report a bit wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

Tipping pitches to the runner at second base may have been an issue in Houston. It does not appear it was the problem, however, just given how few runners were actually at second base. This early in the season, everything gets magnified, and Paxton’s three starts have been uneven overall. As long as the stuff is fine and he’s healthy — as far as we know, both of those things are true — it’ll likely be only a matter of time until Paxton gets on track. Tipping pitches to the runner at second? That was only a small part of the problem in Houston.

“(Beltran) showed me some video (and said), ‘Look at these takes, look at these swings. They wouldn’t be making these swings or these takes if they didn’t know what was coming,’” Paxton said to Braziller. “That being said, I also didn’t throw the ball very well. I was over the middle of the plate too much, even when there were guys not on second base. So I need to be better as well.”

The Yankees need to make a decision on Gio Gonzalez soon

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(Presswire)

Ten days remain until Gio Gonzalez can opt out of his contract with the Yankees. The veteran lefty was brought in as rotation insurance last month just in case things went awry for the recovering CC Sabathia and Luis Severino. Gonzalez wasn’t necessarily in the Yankees plans, hence the minor league deal he signed with the April 20th exit date. Oh, how things have changed.

Initially, both Severino and Sabathia were expected to return by the end of April. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga were only going to be stopgaps for a few weeks. Unless the team was going to run with a six-man rotation at full strength, there was no place for Gonzalez. Now, Severino won’t return until this summer. The good news is that Sabathia will be back this weekend, but without its ace, the Yankees will tap into the reserves longer than anticipated. How they choose to do that remains to be seen, but we’ll know for sure whether it’s Gonzalez or not by next weekend.

It would be a tough break for German to lose his rotation spot if he continues to pitch well over the next week or so. Granted, his first two starts were against Detroit and Baltimore, but it’s fun to watch his power fastball and sharp curve. Nonetheless, the Yankees have some flexibility with German. He still has a minor league option, so he could remain extended as a starter in Triple-A. Or, he could transition to the bullpen where his stuff should play. Speaking of his arsenal, it’s certainly superior to what Gonzalez offers now. Yet, German is still a bit of an unknown. He’s a much more volatile option because he tends to not pitch past the fourth or fifth inning.

Gonzalez would be a safe choice for the fifth starter role going forward. His stuff is not what it once was, but he’s still an innings eater. Unlike German, I feel pretty confident in Gonzalez pitching into the fifth or sixth every turn. One issue, if it even is a true problem, is that Gonzalez has no use as a reliever. So, if the Yankees really wanted to keep German in the rotation, it wouldn’t make much sense to stash Gonzalez in the bullpen. That would mean cutting him loose and thereby weakening the team’s pitching depth.

After a crummy spring training and first outing in Scranton, Gonzalez finally put together a brilliant outing yesterday. Perhaps the late start to camp is the excuse for the initial poor performance, but Gonzalez wasn’t doing himself any favors by pitching poorly. He could get two more starts in Scranton before his opt out. How he pitches in those outings might not matter. Voluntarily losing depth in a young season when the team is dropping like flies doesn’t seem like a wise idea.

An external acquisition, namely Dallas Keuchel, is the most plausible reason the team to send Gonzalez packing. There haven’t been any rumblings about such a move just yet. But as Mike wrote this morning, the Yankees probably will exhaust their internal options before turning outside the organization.

As Gonzalez’s decision day nears, there’s an old adage to keep in mind: a team can never have enough starting pitching. Chances are that the rotation will suffer at least another injury or two over the course of the season. Had Severino’s prognosis not been so daunting, the risk of rolling the dice with German wouldn’t have been a terrible decision. Now, it’s hard to imagine the team letting go of a solid big league option in Gonzalez.

Chad Green is still trying to develop his splitter into a reliable weapon

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The new season is a week old and gosh, there’s a lot of noise out there. It’s difficult to know what’s meaningful and what is, well, noise. DJ LeMahieu is 6-for-12 (.500) at the plate right now. When LeMahieu does that later this year, in June or July, we won’t think twice about it. When it happens at the start of the season, omg what a great signing!

It’s easy to get carried away in the early days of a new season but much of what we’ve seen is lies. It’s just the usual randomness of baseball. One of the few things we do know for certain right now is Chad Green is still trying to develop a pitch to play off his fastball. His fastball will always be his bread-and-butter. He needs something else to keep hitters honest though.

Since arriving for good two years ago, the slider has been Green’s primary secondary pitch. It’s not any good, but it seems to be the secondary pitch he is most confident in. Since last August though, Green is working to reincorporate his splitter into his arsenal. He shelved the pitch following the move into the bullpen and he’s now trying to bring it back. Look:

Green has made two appearances this season and thrown 31 total pitches: 25 fastballs, four splitters, two sliders. He threw three of the four splitters to one batter, the lefty hitting Rio Ruiz, in his season debut Saturday, and the locations were, uh, not good. Even with the typical splitter movement, these are fat pitches out over the plate:

The top splitter was fouled away. The middle splitter generated a swing and a miss. The bottom splitter was sliced down the left field line for a double that led to an insurance run. Leave enough splitters up and over the plate and you’re going to pay eventually, and Green did.

Monday night Green threw his only other splitter of the season and it had good enough tumbling action, but was taken for a ball. We certainly haven’t seen Green throw many pitches that move like this since he arrived for good in 2017:

The results of four individual pitches early in the season are irrelevant. The important thing is Green is still trying to make that splitter work. He brought it back in the second half last season, when it became apparent the fastball only approach was losing effectiveness, and it is something he’s sticking with now. This experiment remains in progress.

For Green, the goal is not so much to develop the splitter (or slider or whatever) into a legitimate putaway pitch, though that would be very cool. The goal is to create something to keep hitters off the fastball. Put something else in the back of their minds so they can’t sit on the heater, which showed diminishing returns last year.

Can the splitter be that pitch? Geez, I hope so, but this isn’t a new pitch — Green threw the splitter regularly during his time as a starter — and I’m not sure how much improvement can be expected. Maybe the Yankees can help him improve the splitter in a way the Tigers couldn’t. Not much we can do now other than wait and see.

As good as he’s been the last two years, Green’s profile is not built especially well for the long haul. Fastball velocity and spin rate matter to him much more than most guys, so any normal age-related losses could have a significant impact on his effectiveness. It’s been clear he needs something else to continue being this effective. The splitter is his latest attempt to develop that something else.

Using CC Sabathia’s suspension to gain another roster spot for five games

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(Presswire)

When the regular season begins next week, CC Sabathia will not be with the Yankees. Actually, no, let me rephrase that. Sabathia will not be an active player when the regular season begins next week. I’d bet on him being introduced alongside his teammates at Yankee Stadium during his final Opening Day next week. Can’t see Sabathia missing that.

After Opening Day, Sabathia figures to head back to Tampa to continue what is essentially his Spring Training. He got a late start on things because his December heart surgery delayed his offseason throwing, so he reported to camp behind other pitchers. Sabathia threw his second simulated game this past weekend and is expected to join the Yankees sometime in mid-April.

Because he won’t be ready until a few weeks into the season, the Yankees will stash Sabathia on the injured list for the time being. He also has to serve a five-game suspension stemming from the “That’s for you, bitch” incident last year. It was announced at the time that Sabathia would appeal the suspension, but there has been no follow-up. Very weird. Until we hear otherwise, I assume it’s still a five-game ban.

Last week Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch the Yankees are leaning toward carrying Sabathia on the Opening Day active roster to get the suspension out of the way. He can’t serve the suspension while on the injured list (that’s for performance-enhancing drug suspensions only) and the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. They’re leaning suspension then injured list over injured list then suspension.

Given the early season schedule, it makes the most sense to get the suspension out of the way early. The Yankees could use the suspension to effectively buy an extra roster spot. Specifically, they could send Domingo German to Triple-A at the end of Spring Training, then call him up to start the sixth game of the regular season. This would be the rotation schedule:

  • March 28th vs. Orioles: Masahiro Tanaka
  • March 29th: OFF
  • March 30th vs. Orioles: James Paxton
  • March 31st vs. Orioles: J.A. Happ
  • April 1st vs. Tigers: Luis Cessa (presumably)
  • April 2nd vs. Tigers: Tanaka on normal rest
  • April 3rd vs. Tigers: Domingo German (Sabathia’s suspension ends)

German has a fourth option and can be sent down, and because Sabathia will be placed on the injured list following the suspension, it allows the Yankees to recall German before he spends the requisite ten days in the minors. German doesn’t even have to physically go to Scranton. He can be part of the baseline introductions on Opening Day and hang with the team until being activated.

Sending German down allows the Yankees to carry four starters, eight relievers, and three bench players while Sabathia serves his suspension. The other option is carrying German on the roster and having five starters, and either seven relievers and three bench players, or eight relievers and two bench players. Neither of those is ideal. The Yankees would rather have the full complement of relievers and bench players.

The other option is carrying German as the eighth reliever. Keep him in the bullpen those first five games as a long man, and, if he’s not needed, start him in the sixth game and call up another reliever to fill Sabathia’s roster spot after the suspension is over. And, if German is needed in long relief, the Yankees could call up someone else to make that start in the sixth game (Jonathan Loaisiga?) before German joins the rotation the next time around.

Carrying German as the eighth reliever is a viable option — I think it’s what the Yankees will most likely do, especially with Dellin Betances now hurt — but I don’t love it. Those “he’s going to start this day if we don’t need him in long relief first” situations always seem to result in the Yankees trying to stay away from the guy so he can start. I’d rather send German down for the five games and carry eight relievers Aaron Boone can use without worrying what it does to his rotation, you know?

Losing a roster spot for five games during Sabathia’s suspension isn’t a huge deal. He’s a starting pitcher, so it’s not like he plays between starts anyway, plus there’s an off-day squeezed into the five-game span. Getting the suspension out of the way early allows the Yankees to manipulate their roster and use Sabathia’s injured list assignment to bring back a recently optioned player, in this case German, who could then start the sixth game of the year and allow the Yankees to carry a full bullpen and bench during the suspension. They wouldn’t be shorthanded despite a 24-man roster.

The Yankees did not have a starter throw 100 pitches until their 20th game last year and that was by design. They eased everyone into the season and I assume the same will be true this year, which means they’re going to want a full bullpen in the early going. Sabathia’s suspension and injured list stint allows them to carry eight relievers and three bench players, and delay calling up their fifth starter until the sixth game. It’s the best of a not great situation.

Spring Training observation: Masahiro Tanaka’s new curveball

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(Presswire)

In two weeks and one day Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound for Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. He’ll make his fourth Opening Day start in the last five years thanks to Luis Severino’s shoulder issue. Tanaka’s Opening Day history isn’t good (14 runs in 12.2 innings), but who cares. What happened in 2015-17 has no bearing on 2019.

Anyway, Tanaka has been very good so far during Grapefruit League play, allowing two runs in 6.1 innings. And that is completely meaningless. Example: Tanaka had a career best 0.38 ERA in Spring Training 2017 and a career worst 4.74 ERA during the 2017 regular season. It’s 6.1 innings! Good or bad, his spring performance means nothing.

For a veteran like Tanaka, it’s more instructive to track the process than the results. Sometimes in the spring you can spot a swing change or a delivery tweak. For example, Tanaka employed a little pause at the top of his leg left during his first Grapefruit League start this year. Check it out:

That caught my attention. Tanaka did it a few times during that start and varied the pause. Sometimes it was even a little more exaggerated than that. It didn’t last though. Tanaka was back to his usual smooth, continuous leg motion with no pause in his second Grapefruit League start. Didn’t do it once. Maybe he gave up on the pause. We’ll see.

The pause might be one of those Spring Training nothings. Tanaka’s new curveball is not.  Earlier this spring he said he started toying with a new curveball — a new knuckle curve, specifically — late last year because he didn’t like the traditional curveball he’s been throwing pretty much his entire career, and he’s continuing to work on it this year.

“I really didn’t like how the previous curveball was moving. So I wanted to try something new and that’s where basically I have a new curveball now,” said Tanaka to Mark Didtler through a translator. “It’s something that I’ve been kind of been playing around with or trying during the later part of the season last year. Actually I’ve thrown a couple in a game towards the end of last season. So I kept working on it and working on it.”

Here is the obligatory GIF of Tanaka’s new knucklecurve:

It’s a little snappier than Tanaka’s old curveball, though the big difference is the radar gun. That pitch was 80 mph on the television gun — the YES Network gun has matched Trackman (i.e. Statcast) for years now and is generally very reliable, even in Spring Training — which is awfully hard for a curveball. Last year’s Tanaka’s curve averaged 77.3 mph.

In his five seasons with the Yankees, Tanaka has thrown 17 total curveballs at 80 mph or better, with eight of the 17 coming in 2016. Here are the 2018 league averages:

  • Curveballs: 78.3 mph
  • Knuckle curves: 80.9 mph

The velocity difference more or less matches Tanaka’s. There’s a three mile-an-hour separation between a curveball and knuckle curve, on average. We haven’t seen many knuckle curves from Tanaka thus far this spring — he said he threw some late last year, but Statcast didn’t pick up any — so we’re definitely short on information right now.

Tanaka typically uses his curveball to steal strikes early in the count. Roughly 7% of the pitches Tanaka has thrown in his MLB career are curveballs, and approximately 62% of his curveballs have been thrown as the first pitch of an at-bat. It’s a clear change of pace/steal a strike pitch. Not a finish pitch or anything like that. It’s a sneak attack pitch.

I don’t see that changing anytime soon, even if Tanaka gives up the traditional curve and goes with the knuckle curve full-time. He’s always going to be a slider/splitter pitcher with a show-me fastball. When you have two offspeed pitches as good as Tanaka’s slider and splitter, there’s no sense in getting cute with your fourth or fifth best pitch.

Maybe the knuckle curve proves to be so effective that Tanaka can use it as a putaway pitch. I’d bet against it. At this point, Tanaka is who he is, and he’s not going to drastically change anything until the hitters tell him it’s necessary, like they told CC Sabathia he needed a cutter. Tanaka is not at that point yet. He’s tinkering more than overhauling.

Tanaka is a master craftsman and he knows how to best use his arsenal. The knuckle curve is a (theoretically) better version of his old curve and gives hitters one more thing to think about, and that’s it. Not something to lean on heavily, you know? For now, the knuckle curve is a #thingtowatch, even if it doesn’t figure to be a real impact pitch going forward.

Like it or not, the Yanks should use an opener while Severino and Sabathia are sidelined

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Go ahead, give me a good reason why Domingo German should face the top of the lineup in the first inning. (Presswire)

When the 2019 regular season opens in three weeks, the Yankees will be without staff ace Luis Severino and fifth starter CC Sabathia. Severino is dealing with rotator cuff inflammation and Sabathia is working his way back from offseason knee and heart surgery. Sabathia’s delayed start to the season was expected. Severino’s injury came out of nowhere, like most injuries.

“Hopefully it’s as short as necessary, but we need to make sure we give it the time also that’s necessary,” Brian Cashman said to Coley Harvey earlier this week. “He’s an important piece and we’re not going to have him for a period of time. We’ll adjust. That’s what everybody has to do. But it’s obviously a very concerning situation until he’s on the mound for a consistent amount of time to the point that you forget it ever happened.”

Cashman seemingly ruled out an outside rotation addition — “What I’ve got is what I’ve got and we’re comfortable with that. Can’t rule anything out, but I’d say the main focus is what we have,” he said — which isn’t surprising. No general manager would come out and say “yep, we’re ready to sign someone or make a trade” after losing a key player to injury. That’s a good way to crush your leverage.

Realistically, there are four ways the Yankees can replace Severino and Sabathia. One, they could splurge and sign Dallas Keuchel. I wouldn’t bet on that. Two, they could go after Gio Gonzalez, who figures to be cheaper than Keuchel and still offers that Proven Veteran™ track record. Three, they could go real cheap with someone like James Shields or Edwin Jackson. Or four, they could go in-house with Luis Cessa, Domingo German, or Jonathan Loaisiga.

The Yankees tend to promote from within to address roster needs these days — remember how Severino made his MLB debut? the Yankees called him up because they didn’t like any of the asking prices at the 2015 trade deadline — so my hunch is they’ll roll with Cessa, German, and Loaisiga. I get adding depth, but is there any reason to believe Jackson or Shields or Bartolo Colon would give the Yankees better production? Eh, not really.

Sticking Cessa, German, or Loaisiga in the rotation and letting them run with it is the most straightforward move. It is not necessarily the best move, however. I think the best move would be pairing them with an opener. Aaron Boone more or less dismissed using an opener last week — “Look, if we are healthy and have perfect health, you don’t envision that,” he said — but here’s what he told George King following Severino’s injury:

“I could see (an opener) being considered from time to time. I don’t consider it a lot, but I could see it coming into play,” Boone said of employing the opener by using a reliever such as Chad Green to start a game. “There are so many things that go into that for us. A long stretch of games, you may want to give a guy an extra day. When we are healthy and right, I don’t see it that much.”

When healthy, the Yankees don’t have any opener candidates. Sabathia is the best candidate to be paired with an opener, but he has a longer than usual warm-up routine, and that might not translate well to the bullpen. An opener with Sabathia could be a net negative. With Severino and Sabathia sidelined though, and presumably two of Cessa, German, and Loaisiga in the rotation, suddenly the Yankees have two candidates for an opener.

The opener is both a smart strategy and a total drag to watch. The additional pitching changes and constant bullpen monitoring distract from the actual game. Strategically, it’s brilliant. You match up one of your better pitchers against the top of the lineup (i.e. the other team’s best hitters) in the first inning, then turn it over to someone who can get you through three or four (or five) innings while facing the top of the lineup only once. It’s smart. It is.

Cessa, German, and Loaisiga are all young pitchers with recent bullpen experience — they all pitched in relief for the Yankees at times last year — and the Yankees certainly have the bullpen depth to swing this. They could use Chad Green as an opener and still have Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino for the late innings. I wouldn’t be opposed to using Betances as an opener and really dropping the hammer.

German really struggled in the first inning last year (8.36 ERA and .283/.348/.667 against) though I don’t think we need to dig up stats to validate the strategy. Generally speaking, the other team’s best hitters bat in the first inning. That has been the case for decades. Top relievers like Green, Betances, and Ottavino are better equipped to retire the other team’s best hitters than inexperienced kids like Cessa, German, and Loaisiga. It’s pretty simple.

The difficult part — and this is what Rays manager Kevin Cash did so well last year — is getting the players to buy in. Throwing Betances rather than Cessa at Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez in the first inning sounds great, but is Dellin comfortable pitching that early in the game? Pitchers are creatures of habit. Disrupt their routine and bad things can happen. There’s an adjustment that has to be made.

Remember, the opener was born out of necessity. The Rays used it last year because they were hit hard by injuries last spring. Nathan Eovaldi was slowed by loose bodies in his elbow and pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon needed Tommy John surgery. Tampa had Chris Archer and Blake Snell, and that was it. They came up with a creative way to navigate around the pitching injuries and lack of rotation depth.

The Yankees, when healthy, don’t need an opener. Their starters are plenty good enough. The Yankees aren’t healthy though, and barring a surprise signing or trade, they’re going to go into the regular season with two of Cessa, German, and Loaisiga in the rotation. That’s not great. Dipping into that deep bullpen to use an opener will allow the kids to avoid the top of the order once per game, which will increase their chances of having a productive outing.

At this point the opener is a legitimate baseball strategy more than a gimmick. And, with the AL East race expected to be tight all season, every game takes on increased importance. The Yankees are already without two of their top five starters. Anything they can do to make life easier on the fill-in starters should not be dismissed. The opener can make for some ugly baseball, believe me I know, but it can also give the Yankees a better chance to win when Cessa, German, or Loaisiga are on the mound.

Saturday Links: Opener, Farm System Rankings, Rule Changes

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If Drew Hutchison starts a game this year, the Yankees better use an opener. (Presswire)

The Yankees will continue their Grapefruit League season with a road game against the Pirates this afternoon. Alas, it will not be televised. We haven’t seen the Yankees play since Monday. Fortunately, every game from tomorrow through next Saturday will be televised live. Hooray for that. Here are some notes to check out.

Boone doesn’t rule out using an opener

According to George King, Aaron Boone is willing to use an opener this year, though it doesn’t sound like he’s in a rush to do it. “I can see a scenario. Look, if we are healthy and have perfect health, you don’t envision that. I could see a handful of times where it could potentially be in play for us,” he said. Jonathan Holder started a game against the Rays last September 24th, though that was more of a traditional bullpen game than an opener situation.

The opener is a smart baseball strategy but also hideous to watch given all the pitching changes. For the Yankees, CC Sabathia is their best opener candidate, though he has a long warm-up routine related to his knee and that might not translate well to the bullpen. There’s no reason to use an opener for Luis Severino or James Paxton, which leaves Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. I think the Yankees should leave the five starters alone and only use an opener for sixth starter types like Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. That’s the way to go.

Yankees rank 12th in BP’s farm system rankings

Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) posted their annual farm system rankings last week and, like Baseball America and Keith Law, they ranked the Padres and Rays as the top two systems in the game, in that order. They have the Yankees 12th, higher than Law (19th) and Baseball America (20th), probably because BP’s lists always skew toward upside. Here is the Baseball Prospectus blurb:

The Yankees are in transition. They have their usual supply of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds and toolsy IFAs, but haven’t turned this batch into their next generation of top prospects yet. And they traded two of their last generation for James Paxton. I’d expect them to be back among the top systems by next year’s org rankings.

This is not the first time we’ve heard the “I’d expect them to be back among the top systems by next year’s org rankings” thing this year. Six of the Yankees’ ten best prospects are highly talented teenagers (Anthony Seigler, Everson Pereira, Antonio Cabello, Deivi Garcia, Roansy Contreras, Luis Medina) and top prospect Estevan Florial turned only 21 a few weeks ago. Not everyone will work out, of course, but the sheer volume of very young high-upside prospects bodes well for the future of the farm system.

MLB, MLBPA still discussing rule changes

The MLB and MLBPA again traded rule change proposals this past week, report Jeff Passan and Ron Blum. For this season, the two sides are discussing a single July 31st trade deadline (so no August trade waivers) and reducing available mound visits from six to five. MLB is willing to discuss economic issues earlier than usual leading up to the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, as well as push the following rule changes back to 2020:

  • Pitch clock (MLB is willing to push this back to 2022, apparently).
  • Three-batter minimum for pitchers.
  • Adding a 26th roster spot with a 13-pitcher maximum.
  • 28-player limit in September with a 14-pitcher maximum.
  • Increasing injured list and optional assignment minimum from ten days to 15 days.
  • Restrictions on when position players can pitch.

Dellin Betances told Brendan Kuty he doesn’t like the three-batter minimum because it potentially puts guys at increased injury risk if they’re pitching back-to-back or back-to-back-to-back days, which is a perfectly valid concern. I am pro-pitch clock and all for adding a 26th roster spot. I don’t like anything that dictates how teams build (limit on pitcher spots) or use (three-batter minimum, eliminate shifts, etc.) use their roster. Anyway, commissioner Rob Manfred can unilaterally implement a pitch clock and reduce available mound visits to five this year, but he says he prefers to work out an agreement with the MLBPA. We’ll see.

Atlantic League agrees to be MLB’s testing ground

Earlier this week MLB and the independent Atlantic League announced a three-year partnership in which MLB will be allowed to test experimental rule and equipment changes in the Atlantic League. J.J. Cooper hears MLB will experiment with moving the mound back and using an automated strike zone, among other things. Those are seismic alterations to the game and MLB understandably wants plenty of in-game testing before subjecting their players and prospects to the rule changes.

As part of the agreement, MLB will install Trackman (i.e. Statcast) at all eight Atlantic League ballparks and take over as the league’s official stat services provider. Also, MLB will increase their scouting coverage of the league, which employs several former big leaguers each season. Independent leagues have long been viewed as rogue leagues and competition for affiliated baseball, so entering into a partnership with MLB and getting them to make the league state-of-the-art analytically is a historic achievement for the Atlantic League and independent baseball in general. Barriers have been broken.