(REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine)

When Andy Pettitte announced that he was coming out of retirement … well, wait. He never really announced it. The Yankees just signed him out of the blue one Friday afternoon in mid-March and that was it. There were no indications that was planning to come back, in fact there was quite the opposite — insistence that he wasn’t coming back. Pettitte was with the team as a guest instructor in Spring Training but there’s nothing unusual about that. Former players are all over the place in camp.

Anyway, when we found out Pettitte was coming out of retirement to rejoin the Yankees, I admit I was very skeptical about his ability to contribute anything meaningful this summer. We all love Andy, but he was still an almost 40-year-old guy who had spent a year away from the game and had missed a bunch of time due to injury in his final season as a player. The “attempt” part of his “comeback attempt” wasn’t being emphasized enough I thought; the odds were stacked against this thing working out.

Pettitte went through his various minor league tune-up starts and was actually pretty underwhelming statistically. He was allowing a ton of hits and runs to minor league kids but the team said not to worry about it, he was throwing strikes and the wind was blowing really hard. Fine, whatever. The Yankees called him up three weeks ago and to much fanfare and celebration, Pettitte allowed four runs in 6.1 innings against the light-hitting Mariners in his return. All four runs came on a pair of two-run homers and he walked more batters (three) than he struck out (two).

I was still pretty skeptical. There was some obvious rust still to be shaken off and we needed to see how Andy would rebound in five days. One feel-good start back does not a comeback make. Pettitte rebounded well of course, striking out nine Reds in eight shutout innings in his second start before holding the Royals to two runs in seven innings with eight strikeouts last night. It was the first time he struck out at least eight hitters in back-to-back starts since he wore an Astros’ uniform in July of 2006.

I’m not skeptical anymore. Three starts into his comeback, it’s pretty obvious that Pettitte can not only contribute to the Yankees this season, but he can be a damn good starting pitcher for them. Heck, if the Yankees were going to start a best-of-five playoff series today, Andy would be my number two starter. He’s looked that good. He’s running his cutter in on righties, he’s bending his curveball on the corners of the plate, and his changeup looks like it stops in mid-air. Pettitte doesn’t just look like he never left, he looks better than he has in a while. Maybe the year away from the game put some life back into that body.

Who knows what Andy will do from here on out. There is still a lot of season to be played and his body will have plenty of chances to betray him, but it’s hard to look at Pettitte right now and not consider him a bright spot. He’s exceeded my expectations in the sense that he’s shown he can still be dominant and pitch deep into games, curtailing concerns about him becoming a five-and-fly fifth starter type. Andy is no fifth starter right now. He’s the second best pitcher on the team already and the Yankees are going to need him to continue to pitch well as they help shake off this recent slump and climb back in the AL East race.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

How to exceed expectations in three starts

(REUTERS/Gary Cameron)

Starting pitching was supposed to be a strength coming into the season, or at least starting pitching depth was supposed to be a stretch. The Yankees have already used seven different starters this season after using just nine starters last year, and one of those nine was Dellin Betances in the utterly meaningless Game 162. Andy Pettitte‘s return will hopefully solidify things, but Ivan Nova‘s right foot/ankle injury looms and could make things a little hairy in the coming days and weeks.

The starting staff currently ranks 25th in baseball in both ERA (4.93) and FIP (4.55) through 36 team games, reflecting the slow starts by CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and Freddy Garcia and inconsistent performances by Nova and Hiroki Kuroda. Sabathia has pitched much better of late (last night’s start notwithstanding) and Hughes has shown signings of improving, but Garcia has already been banished to the bullpen. As a result, the starters have performed much better as the season has progressed. Here’s a breakdown of each complete turn through the rotation, so not including last night’s start by Sabathia…

Garcia made four starts before being replaced by David Phelps, but his removal from the rotation is just one reason for the improvement. Hughes got his act together to a certain extent and although Kuroda is still hit or miss, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last four starts. Getting CC back on track is has obviously been huge as well.

Interestingly enough, the strikeout, walk, and homerun rates really haven’t changed all that much. Sure they fluctuate each turn through the rotation, but they’ve generally sat right around 19%, 7%, and 4%, respectively. The runs (earned and unearned) per nine innings has been way down of late while the innings pitched is up, and that’s not a coincidence. Runs allowed and innings pitched are not mutually exclusive. With an injury-weakened bullpen, the Yankees are going to need as many innings out of their starting staff as possible.

The rotation still has a ways to go before becoming a strength, but at least they’re headed in the right direction. Hughes has to continue doing what he’s done in his last two starts against someone other than the Royals and Mariners, and Nova needs to stop allowing extra-base hits like they’re going out of style. As much as we all love Pettitte, he’s still a big unknown given his age and the long layoff. Progress is definitely being made though, we just need to see some more of it.

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As the rotation turns…

(photo: Rick Yeatts/Getty)

In the aftermath of yet another strong Jeff Niemann performance against the Yankees — whose seven-inning, one-run outing last night improved his career ERA against New York to 2.75 over six starts — I couldn’t help but wonder what Niemann’s overall numbers against the Bombers looked like in relation to other starters that have consistently had success when facing the team.

Going back to the beginning of 2009, here are the top 10 starters against the Yankees by lowest ERA (minimum three starts), courtesy of David Pinto’s wonderful day-by-day database:

Most of the names on this list would probably align with Yankee fans’ perceptions of pitchers the team typically struggles against — and frankly I was shocked that King Felix’s name didn’t top the list. His aberrant start last September slightly skewed his numbers, but prior to that completely out-of-character dud, no pitcher in baseball had had more success against the Yankees. Felix had thrown 40 innings of six-run ball (1.35 ERA) against the Yankees, including 24 innings of one-run ball (0.38 ERA!) at Yankee Stadium dating back to the beginning of 2010, and not having been saddled with a loss against the Bombers since May 3, 2008.

However, there are a couple of eye-openers — I can’t say I expected Carl Pavano to make the top 10, although I suppose that makes some sense given his unique brand of right-handed slop. And the other is Niemann, who, believe it or not, has the third-lowest ERA among all starters against the Yankees since the beginning of 2009, his first full season in the bigs. Now, I don’t mean to knock on Niemann, who clearly has the Yankees’ number, but it does seem a bit odd that a hurler who’s been a decidedly average — if not below-average — right-hander during his career (102 ERA-; 105 FIP-) would be so successful against the best offensive team in baseball during that timeframe.

For the most part, aside from Niemann and Pavano, almost everyone else in that group makes sense — hard-throwing, high-strikeout right-handers, but I was also curious to see whether there were any other similarities among this group that might uncover why they’ve routinely stymied the Bombers’ bats. Courtesy of Brooks’ Pitcher Cards, here’s what each pitcher in the top 10 throws and how hard they throw it:

Here’s where things get interesting. Four of the top five pitchers in this study throw a sinker more than 30% of the time, and the fifth — Niemann — just misses that cutoff, at 29% of the time. Additionally, both Pavano and Jake Arrieta are also sinker-heavy, which means that seven of the top 10 throw a sinker more than 25% of the time.

Of course, it’d be easy to say, “well maybe the Yankees just stink against sinkers,” but that’s not even remotely true, as they have the second-best wSI/C in baseball since 2009. Still, there’s something about this variety of sinkerballer — several of whom also prominently feature a curve (Hernandez, Niemann, Haren and Arrieta each go to the hook more than 10% of the time) — that seem to have the Yankees’ goose cooked.

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Top 10 starting pitchers against the Yankees by ERA since 2009

Pettitte, 40 next month, had mixed results in his various minor league tune-up starts, including five runs in five Triple-A innings this past weekend. For what it’s worth, Ken Rosenthal spoke to a scout who said Andy’s stuff “lacked crispness” in his latest minor league outing. Pettitte got his pitch count up to 95 in his last two starts, so stamina isn’t a huge concern. Obviously there will be quite a bit of rust to shake off after a year away from the game.

Ivan Nova is currently lined up to start Sunday, but that doesn’t really mean anything. Phil Hughes is scheduled to start Saturday and David Phelps on Monday, and I would count on one of them moving to the bullpen to accommodate Pettitte. The smart money’s on Phelps.

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Pettitte will start for Yankees on Sunday

(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

It’s been kind of an odd start to the season for Ivan Nova. He’s striking out way more batters (8.22 K/9 and 19.6 K%) than last year (5.33 K/9 and 13.9 K%) and has walked fewer as well (2.64 BB/9 and 6.3 BB% vs. 3.10 BB/9 and 8.1 BB%), but his ground ball rate is down (44.2% vs. 52.7%) and he’s been getting hit hard. I mean really hard. Opponents have hit .341/.392/.636 against Nova in 143 plate appearances so far this year, and that’s just awful.

Thankfully, there are two pieces of good news. First, his stuff hasn’t changed from last season. His slider continues to be his primary secondary pitch and if anything, his fastball velocity actually jumped about half-a-mile an hour this year. Secondly, there is some statistical funny business going on. It’s very unlikely that Nova will fall victim to a .393 BABIP all season, though I suppose it’s possible if he doesn’t boost his ground ball rate and Raul Ibanez/Eduardo Nunez roam an outfield corner all season. His 16.7% HR/FB is quite astronomical and Hit Tracker says three of the six homers he’s allowed are “Just Enoughs,” meaning they were essentially wall-scrapers. Hopefully that evens out over time.

Unfortunately, there’s also some bad news. Nova’s fastball has been getting hammered despite the slight increase in velocity, resulting in a pitch that has been 9.2 runs below average so far this year. It hasn’t just been the least effective fastball in the league this year, it’s been the least effective pitch in all of baseball. That’s pretty bad. Unsurprisingly, location is a big reason why. Nova’s left the pitch up in the strike zone quite a bit in the early going, especially to left-handed batters…

(click to embeggin)

That’s a lot of fastballs basically right in the middle of the zone and above. There’s nothing wrong with pitching up in the zone, it can be brutally effective when done properly, but the rate at which Nova is going is probably a) a little extreme, and b) not entirely planned. The big knock on him throughout the minors was that he lacked deception in his delivery, which is why he never racked up as many strikeouts as his stuff suggested he should. If he’s not hiding the ball well and leaving fastball up in the zone too much, well that’s how you end up with a .341/.392/.636 batting line against through five starts.

The Rays have been one of the very best fastball-hitting teams in the majors so far this season, so tonight would be a great time for Nova to get his heater under control and down in the zone. Given the general uncertainty in the rotation behind CC Sabathia, it would be nice to have Ivan become that workhorse starter we all expected him to be after his great second half last year.

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Ivan Nova and the high fastball

(Elsa/Getty Images)

It’s kinda funny how a few weeks ago, after the Yankees signed Andy Pettitte, there didn’t appear to be any room at the inn for guys like David Phelps, Adam Warren, and D.J. Mitchell. They were the numbers eight, nine, and ten starters in some order. Now we’re not even one full calender month into the season, and two of those guys are on the big league roster and one is scheduled to start tonight’s game. Amazing how quickly pitching depth can disappear.

Phelps, tonight’s starter, has impressed in six long relief outings even though his 5.66 FIP in 17.2 IP is rather unsightly. He gave up three homers in 6.2 IP against the Red Sox and Rangers late last month, which will do a number on the ol’ FIP this early in the season. I honestly think his 3.57 ERA more accurately portrays his performance at this point, but maybe I’m just being a homer. Phelps has struck out 14 batters in those 17.2 IP, a solid but unspectacular 7.13 K/9 and 19.7 K%. Two of his seven walks were intentional and his 42.6% ground ball rate is decent enough.

Obviously six long relief appearances do not tell the whole David Phelps story, but that doesn’t change the fact that tonight’s start is a big opportunity for him, legitimately the biggest opportunity of his career (to date). Freddy Garcia has already pitched himself out of the rotation and Phil Hughes is on a similar path, so there’s a chance for Phelps to seize a full-time starting spot even though Andy Pettitte’s return is on the horizon. Saying he just has to pitch better than Phil is an oversimplification because a 7.00 ERA would represent an upgrade and still stink. In order to keep a rotation spot, Phelps is going to have to show the ability to a) go 5+ innings each time out, and b) not let things get out of hand like it has for Garcia and Hughes so many times. It’s so horribly cliche but true.

I don’t think Phelps has forced the Yankees’ hand — his performance has been solid but not overwhelmingly so — it’s more about getting Garcia the hell outta there. Phelps happened to be in the right place at the right time more than anything, but give him a lot of credit for doing what he had to do in Spring Training to win a job and then again in long relief to get noticed. The St. Louis native will have lots of friends and family in the stands tonight, so I’m sure his excitement level will be through the roof. The first career start is always a big one when it comes to nerves and stuff, but the evaluation process starts now and Phelps has to show he has what it takes to be a starter in this league if he wants to keep his rotation spot on more than just a temporary basis.

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David Phelps’ Big Chance

(REUTERS/Mike Stone)

As awful as he’s been this season — 7.88 ERA and 6.39 FIP — Phil Hughes has actually been pretty lucky. He’s lucky in the sense that Freddy Garcia has performed even worse — 12.51 ERA and 5.51 FIP — and has drawn most of the negative attention. The security blanket is gone now, however. Garcia is out of the rotation and the focus turns to Hughes, the current weak link in the rotation.

The Yankees have given Phil every opportunity to succeed as a starting pitcher in his career, but outside of late-2007 and early-2010, their patience has not been rewarded. Dating back to mid-May of 2010 — an admittedly arbitrary endpoint — Hughes has pitched to a 5.45 ERA (~4.85 FIP) in 228 innings across 41 starts. The nearly 1,000 batters he faced (997 to be exact) during that time have tagged him for a .275/.334/.467 batting line. That’s almost exactly what Howie Kendrick hit last season. So yeah, it hasn’t been pretty.

Because of his recent awfulness and that long stretch of below average performance, tonight’s start against the Orioles just might be the Hughes’ last chance to show the team he can be effective in the rotation. Not only is Andy Pettitte‘s return drawing closer, but David Phelps will begin his starting pitcher audition later this week. As I said this morning, the Yankees can use Monday’s scheduled day off to rearrange the rotation and give his rotation spot to Pettitte if they so chose. The schedule isn’t going to handcuff them.

Phil’s days as a starting pitcher for the Yankees are numbered. It seems inevitable that the team will remove him from the rotation as some point relatively soon, whether it be after tonight’s start, next week, or next month. The Yankees have to stop kidding themselves if they want to improve their starting staff. There are better options on the way, and unless he comes out tonight and shows 2-3 pitches with command, there’s little Hughes can do to save his rotation spot.

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Phil Hughes’ Last Stand

(AP Photo/Mel Evans)

Andy Pettitte‘s return to the Yankees took another step forward yesterday, as he threw 96 pitches in his latest tune-up start. The team has yet to make an official announcement, though I have to think Andy will return to Double-A Trenton for his next tune-up start this weekend (they’ll be playing at home) unless the weather doesn’t cooperate. Depending on how that start goes, he could be declared ready for the big leagues or in need of another minor league start. I could see it going either way right now, to be honest.

Monday’s scheduled day off affords the Yankees quite a bit of flexibility. They could use it to skip either Phil Hughes or David Phelps, avoiding their fifth starter until next Saturday against the Mariners. Conveniently, that would line up perfectly for Pettitte’s return if he does come through his next minor league tune-up start with flying colors. He’d actually have an extra day of rest prior to that start, which is probably ideal.

If Pettitte needs more time, then the Yankees can still use Monday to skip the lesser of two evils, either Hughes or Phelps. That will allow them to limit the number of starts made by the weakest rotation link before Andy returns. This isn’t rocket science; if the Yankees want to improve the performance of their starting staff, one of the first things they need to do is to stop running ineffective pitchers out there and hoping for the best. When alternatives present themselves, by all means use them. Monday’s day off is an alternative to another dud start.

The odds are stacked against Pettitte making a meaningful contribution to the Yankees this year given his age and temporary retirement, but I have a real hard time betting against him. He may or may not be ready to jump into the big leagues late next week, but he’s been continually making progress since signing in the middle of Spring Training and isn’t far off from being a real option for the rotation. One more start, and it could be go time for the big lefty.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Planning for Andy Pettitte’s return

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

David Phelps will replace Freddy Garcia in rotation

If the Yankee starters were to finish April out at their current 5.73 ERA, it would represent the second-worst mark the team has put up in a month in the last 10 seasons. The worst was April 2007′s 5.94, much of which was due to Kei Igawa being allowed to throw 20.2 innings of 7.84 ERA ball, although Chien-Ming Wang‘s 5.84 in 12.1 innings and Chase Wright’s 7.88 in 8 innings didn’t help things, either.

Now obviously ERA only tells a very small and flawed portion of the story. I was also curious to see how the team got to this point and whether they were doing anything substantially different, so I grabbed their PITCHf/x stats for April 2012, April 2011, and the MLB average.

The first thing that jumps out is the team’s deployment of the four-seamer appears to be way down from a year ago in favor of more sinkers and way more sliders. And this is problematic in that the rotation’s sinkers are collectively getting crushed to the tune of -5.3 runs above average and -1.91 per 100 pitches thrown. The latter figure is 92%(!) worse than league average. This appears to be due to location issues — the team is leaving its sinkers closer to the middle of the plate horizontally than the league, and its sinkers are rising nearly an inch-and-a-half higher. As always, we need to approach the classification algorithm with some wariness, but if this data is accurate it helps partially explain why the execution’s been so poor.

Somewhat surprisingly, one of the primary culprits for the poor sinker showing is CC Sabathia, who TYA’s Mike Eder noticed last week was leaving the pitch up during his first few innings against the Twins until correcting whatever flaw in his mechanics led to this happening. Given Sabathia’s improvement in the latter half of the Twins game and strong showing against the Rangers last Monday, I wouldn’t expect the sinker to be an issue going forward. Sweaty Freddy’s sinker has been the worst in baseball in the early going, though I have less confidence that he’ll be able to rectify his situation.

The other bizarre aspect relating to the Yankee starters’ performance this month is that their peripherals have been, for the most part, outstanding.

They’ve been striking a ton of men out — second-highest K/9 in the AL, behind Chicago by 0.01 — and walking almost no one. The team’s biggest bugaboo has been the home-run ball. Surprisingly the starters haven’t even given up the most total home runs in the AL, but on a rate basis they’ve been abysmal, with a second-worst-in-MLB 1.73 HR/9, and a 17.3% HR/FB% ranking third-worst. They also have the highest BABIP in the league by a not-small margin, and all three of these figures are way, way above league average.

Despite all of this starting ineptitude, at 10-8 the team is only two games behind where it was last year after 18 games, and two games better than the 2007 team and its decade-worst monthly ERA. Even better news for Yankee fans is that it would be almost impossible for the team’s starters to perform any worse than they have, and hopefully they start turning it around sooner rather than later.

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Yanks vying for worst monthly starters’ ERA in a decade