River Avenue Blues

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An in-house rotation fix

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First it was Obi-Wang. Then it was Joba Chamberlain down in the minors. Now it’s Mike Mussina, the supposed rock of stability that always seems to be one little tremor away from a landslide. Hamstring injuries have run rampant through the Yanks organization in 2007, and they’ve been on the rise in all of baseball the last couple of years. Maybe guys are slacking off during pregame stretching, maybe their muscles are deteriorating from PED use, maybe they’re all just fluke injuries. No matter what’s causing them, the Yanks have to deal with ’em.

Looking at the schedule, I figure the rotation shakes out like this:

Thursday: off
Friday: Igawa
Saturday: Pavano
Sunday: Pettitte
Monday: off
Tuesday: Rasner
Wednesday: Igawa
Thurday: Pavano
Friday: Pettitte
Saturday: TBD

That TBD guy is what I’m here to talk about.

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Salt on the wounds

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After their team’s first 5 games…

Nats’ rotation: 22.1 IP, 31 H, 22 ER, 12 BB, 14 K

Yanks’ rotation: 21.2 IP, 36 H, 24 ER, 10 BB, 12 K

Take solace in the fact that the Yanks play in the AL East…

Once around the rotation

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With Darrell Rasner’s untimely removal today — perhaps due to a painful blister — the Yankees starting rotation completed its first run through the rotation. While the Yanks are missing Chien Ming-Wang, their young ace, the early returns are hardly promising. Let’s take a look.

IP H ER BB K ERA
Carl Pavano 4.1 6 4 2 2 8.31
Andy Pettitte 4.0 6 2 3 2 4.50
Mike Mussina 4.0 8 6 3 4 13.50
Kei Igawa 5.0 8 7 3 2 12.60
Darrell Rasner 4.1 8 5 2 2 10.38
Totals 21.2 36 24 10 12 9.97

So yikes. The Yanks’ starters are 0-2 with a 9.97 ERA in 21.2 innings. They are sporting a WHIP of 2.12 and are generally being a drain on the team. The bullpen has been asked to pick up at least four innings in every game this season, and the Yankees offense needs to generate 10 runs a game to stay in the win column.

The weather is a factor right now. It’s very hard to pitch in the cold. Fingers have no feeling, and breaking pitches are nearly impossible to spot. And it’s still just once through the rotation.

But I would be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned. Sure, I’m concerned. I’m concerned when Paul Bako hits his first home run since 2004, and I’m concerned when no Yankee has come close to the 6th inning, let alone a quality start.

These outings will start to put pressure on the Yankees to find some pitching. I’m sure Brian Cashman is working Roger Clemens’ phone non-stop these days. I’m sure Phil Hughes, who had a solid first outing for the AAA the other day, knows what’s happening up here.

Over the next few weeks, the state of the Yankees pitching will become clear. Clemens will make a decision by the end of this month; Chien-Ming Wang will return to the anchor the rotation in a few weeks; and Hughes will have a few more AAA starts under his belt. But for now, we just have to hope that Pettitte and Mussina can regain their form, that Carl Pavano can stay healthy and that Igawa, Rasner or whoever else may pitch in that five spot can keep the team in the game.

Carl Pavano, man of destiny

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Who could have predicted the series of events that would begin to unfold just a week ago, when Andy Pettitte experienced back spasms following a workout? Chien-Ming Wang injuring his hamstring while running isn’t exactly something we fans were worried about; if there was any concern at all, it was for his shoulder. Then Jeff Karstens, who was actually in consideration for the Opening Day starter gig, left yesterday’s game in the second with elbow stiffness. Turns out that logjam at AAA may not be as much of a problem as once thought over the season’s first month.

The timing of Wang’s injury — on a day Mussina pitched — leaves very open the matter of who starts on Opening Day. Pettitte is just returning to the mound today, preparing for a final exhibition start on Friday, which puts him right out of consideration. Since Mussina pitched Saturday, he’ll pitch Thursday, which also renders him out of bounds — there is no need to start a guy on three days rest before the season even begins.

Speculated over the weekend has been the real possibility that Carl Pavano ends up taking the ball Opening Day. At this point, it’s between him, Darrell Rasner, and Kei Igawa, meaning that any choice will likely leave the Yankees with the worst Opening Day starter in the league. Pavano rises to the top of that crop because 1) he’s the most recognizable name, 2) in theory, he is the best of the three, and 3) he gets paid the most money. To be honest, I’d be hard pressed to come up with three worse reasons for starting a guy on Opening Day.

Technically, though, it’s still spring, and spring means that hope and faith are still in abundance. So instead of lamenting how disgusting it is that Carl Pavano will start on April 2, let’s see if there’s any positive spin to put on this. Let’s see…Pavano has been injured for the past season and a half, and Opening Day will be his first MLB start in 643 days. As far as we know, he’s healthy now while his teammates ail. He hasn’t looked necessarily good this spring, but he hasn’t been tattooed. I got it!

It is Carl Pavano’s destiny to pitch a no-hitter on Opening Day. Am I stretching a bit? Sure. But think about this: how perfectly did these events unfold in Pavano’s favor? When pitchers and catchers reported, the only way that he would have even had a shot to pitch Opening Day was if Pettitte, Wang, and Mussina succumbed to injury, Jeff Karstens looked flat, and Kei Igawa didn’t adjust quickly. Of course, all five of those happening is an enormous long shot. A week and a day ago, only the Igawa scenario looked like it was happening.

But then we had the Pettitte incident on the same day Karstens got roughed up. Wang’s hammy lined up with Mussina’s start, leaving the team’s collective hands tied. If Pettitte had been hurt lifting that Friday and not Monday, if Wang got hurt earlier and the Yanks were able to juggle Moose’s rotation turn, then there would have been another answer on Opening Day. But now we’re stuck with Carl Pavano, and he could provide the kind of Opening Day magic we only hear about in tales told by 70-year-old men.

Or he could tire after five innings and get shelled by the D-Rays. I suppose that’s the more likely scenario. But, once again, we’re in the season of dreams, when anything is still possible because nothing to this point has counted.

Of course, I jest about Pavano’s destiny. However, I maintain a degree of seriousness when I ask: why not Phil Hughes? True, there’s a level of pressure to pitch well in that scenario, but Yankee Stadium would be absolutely electric, and that would definitely get the 20-year-old’s adrenaline pumping. I think a guy like Hughes would feed off it rather than be scared by it.

Plus, just think about it; who would you rather have start Opening Day, Phil Hughes or Carl Pavano? Seems like a no-brainer, right?

How to handle Phil Hughes

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As we all know, the Yankees are taking a very conservative approach to handling Phil Hughes. He’s the top pitching prospect in baseball, and the last thing the team wants is to let him loose and risk an injury. To an extent, this makes sense; there have been studies that demonstrate the negative effects of increasing a young pitcher’s workload by more than 30 innings a year. True, you have to throw more to get stronger, but the Yankees are just trying to moderate how much more Hughes throws.

At what point, though, do the Yankees cut bait and let him pitch as many innings as he can handle? He’ll be limited to around 180 innings this year, 30 more than he threw in 2006. Are they going to impose a 210-inning limit in 2008?

Perhaps we’re not asking the best questions here. After all, 180 innings for Phil Hughes is much different than 180 innings for Chien-Ming Wang. The typical reaction here is to revert to pitch count, which has been the trend as of late. But does pitch count even give us an adequate idea of a pitcher’s workload?

For a quick rundown of the Pitch Count Phenomenon, check out Tom Verducci’s article from this week’s SI (I don’t know why I still subscribe to the magazine if they make everything available online). Yeah yeah, I know some Yanks fans still have a sour taste in their mouth from Verucci’s recent article bemoaning the Yankees philosophy, but the Matsuzaka/pitch count article is a good read.

Now, head over to CBS Sportsline and check out the article about how the Mariners are handling King Felix. Most of the article is fluff, but there are some interesting tidbits in there, including:

As for Hernandez’s workload, the Mariners still will monitor him closely. But if it’s the seventh inning and Hernandez is dominating, you probably won’t see him automatically yanked from the game like he was so often last year.

Instead of simply counting innings, manager Mike Hargrove and pitching coach Rafael Chaves will place more emphasis this year on total pitches thrown and, particularly, on the stress of those pitches and innings.

If Hernandez is sailing, his delivery is in sync and everything is smooth, the green light will remain in place.

I couldn’t possibly react to that revelation better than Jeff at Lookout Landing, who pointed out the CBS article:

That’s not stupid – that’s perfect. It’s exactly how a young pitcher should be treated. Counting innings is what’s silly; 200 frames for Gil Meche are way different than 200 frames for, say, Roy Halladay, and the total barely even gives you an approximation of workload and stress level. It’s something of a barometer, since a guy with 100 innings will generally have less wear and tear than someone with twice as many, but it’s incredibly inefficient, to the point where it’s not even worth monitoring when there are better alternatives available. Which there are.

Innings sometimes provide a ballpark estimate, but pitch context and mechanical consistency tell you much much more. If Pitcher A throws 90 pitches and allows ten baserunners in five innings, while Pitcher B throws 110 pitches and allows six baserunners in seven innings, Pitcher A’s going to be doing more damage to himself, since he’s working in more stressful situations. That’s what wears a guy out and puts him at risk for injury – having to focus on every individual pitch with men on is way more tiring than cruising through the bottom of the order with the bases empty. That much we know. So why not account for it when you’re keeping track of a young pitcher’s progress?

If coaches and front offices are going to be so mindful of a pitcher’s workload, does it not make more sense to try to get as micro a view as possible of said workload? The more you generalize, the more vague your findings are going to be.

If Hughes dominates AAA, there seems little reason to keep innings limits on him. Then, once he gets to the majors, you can monitor him in the same way. This will provide a better view of his workload and possibly clear him to work beyond the 180-inning limit imposed on him. You never know, the Yankees may need some extra innings from him down the stretch.

Mike, I know you’ve got two cents about this.

Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images

How did Igawa do last night?

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Last week, it sounded like I was going to jump off a bridge following Kei Igawa’s unimpressive start. A few commenters talked me off the ledge, but I remain skeptical of his ability to hold down even a back of the rotation job in the majors.

Furthering my obsession with Igawa, I decided to detail his outing last night. I was going to go pitch-by-pitch and describe what I thought of each, but that seems a little too overboard. Maybe I’ll do that for a regular season game once, but not for a Spring Training start.

Keep in mind that he’s kept the ball up in the zone all spring, which is going to turn into an enormous problem sooner or later (and likely sooner). Let’s see if he made any adjustments this time around.

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Farnsworth developing not one, but TWO new pitches

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Possibly lost among the “Moose had a good outing” and “Giambi is ready for the season” fodder is an interesting article in the Daily News regarding Kyle Farnsworth’s expanding repertoire.

Farnsworth, one of the Yankees’ setup men, is working on a changeup and a sinker, hoping that pitches in the mid-80s can keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. It’s something that pitching coach Ron Guidry suggested at the end of last season.

I’m a bit puzzled by this. First, how effectively is he going to be able to work in two new pitches? The article mentions that he spent most of the winter resting his troublesome back, so in essence he began developing them this spring. I’m just unsure that a guy entering his 13th year in the league can develop two new and effective pitches in a little over a month.

Second, if he’s adding these two, is he removing the slider? As frustrated as we were last year with his using it in inappropriate situations — not to mention hanging it far too often — does anyone feel better with him using new and untested pitches rather than one he’s used throughout his relief career? I mean, if he can work in a splitter and changeup effectively, then yeah, I can live without the slider. It once again comes back to the skepticism about his ability to throw these pitches.

In theory, I’d love Farnsworth to throw a splitter and a change. With his devastating heat, they seem like the perfect complement pithes. I just wish he’d have come to this realization earlier, when he’d be better able to develop them, rather than rushing in.

My official prediction: he’ll stick with the fastball and slider this season.

Photo: Matthew J. Lee / Boston Globe