The Yankees are one game away from the World Series thanks to their pitching staff

(Abbie Parr/Getty)
(Abbie Parr/Getty)

In just a few hours the Yankees will look to clinch a spot in the 2017 World Series. I still can’t believe they’ve made it this far. They weren’t supposed to contend this year. They weren’t supposed to come back from down 0-2 to the Indians. They weren’t supposed to come back from down 0-2 to the Astros. Now here they are, one win away from the American League championship. Pretty amazing.

The story of the ALCS so far has been the Astros’ lack of offense, or, as I prefer to frame it, the Yankees’ pitching. They’ve completely shut down the highest scoring offense in baseball in the five games so far. The ‘Stros have scored nine runs (seven earned) on 22 hits and 16 walks in the five games so far. That works out to a 1.45 ERA for the Yankees and a .147/.234/.213 batting line for the Astros. Yeesh.

“It’s rare (for this lineup to struggle so much), because of how much offense we put up through the first six months of the season and even in the Division Series,” said Astros manager A.J. Hinch following Game Five. “We’ve swung the bats very well and to this day I believe we’re one game (away from) coming out of it. We’re going to go home. We hit well. We get a day off, which is probably the most important thing, and try to make some offensive adjustments … We haven’t stayed in our game plan quite well enough to make adjustments.”

The last few games, you could see the frustration beginning to mount in the Astros hitters based on their body language. Carlos Correa slammed his bat after popping up with the bases loaded in Game Four. Jose Altuve struck out in the same game and was yelling at himself as he walked back to the dugout. Josh Reddick threw his helmet after swinging at this pitch …


… to strike out in Game Five, stranding two men on base in the fifth inning. The Astros are struggling offensively and they know they’re struggling offensively. The frustration has built up and now it’s boiling over. For the Yankees, that’s a wonderful thing. You want the Astros squeezing sap out of the bat. You want them trying to hit a five-run home run with each swing. The less relaxed and comfortable they feel at the plate, the better. The pressure is on big time.

Here are some quick numbers comparing Houston’s offense this series to their offense during the regular season and the ALDS:

Regular Season ALDS ALCS
AVG .282 (1st in MLB) .333 .147
ISO .196 (1st) .238 .067
wOBA .355 (1st) .419 .210
xwOBA .330 (3rd) .377 .293
Avg. Exit Velo 87.6 (3rd) 88.3 86.2
Avg. Launch Angle 12.0° (9th) 18.9° 7.1°
BABIP .313 (4th) .376 .183

Just about everything in that table is a descriptive stat. It’s telling you what actually happened on the field. The one exception is xwOBA, or expected wOBA based on exit velocity and launch angle and all sorts of other factors. It’s telling you what a player or team would be expected to hit based on the type of batted ball. A .293 xwOBA — wOBA is on the same scale as OBP, so .293 is terrible — tells you the Astros aren’t making good contact at all. There’s not much bad luck here, if any.

The Yankees, based on what I’ve seen, haven’t changed their pitching approach much in the ALCS. The Indians went breaking ball heavy in the ALDS, as we saw. The Yankees have not done that. Masahiro Tanaka pitched like Masahiro Tanaka. CC Sabathia pitched like CC Sabathia. So on and so forth. And yet, they’ve completely dominated. They’re not giving up much hard contact, and they’ve been able to limit baserunners. The Astros have had 44 offensive innings this series and in only ten of them have they multiple runners on base. Crazy.

Now, here’s the thing: the Astros aren’t really this bad. Give them enough time and their offense will snap out of it. And that’s why it’s important to end the ALCS as soon as possible, meaning tonight. I have to think the Astros will be energized by their fans and playing at home tonight, the same way the Yankees were energized by their home fans the last three games. Know how the Yankees are 6-0 at home this postseason? Well, the Astros are 4-0 at home.

What’s done is done though. The Yankees have silenced Houston’s offense through five ALCS games and, as a result, they lead the series 3-2. It happened. It’s in the books. As cool as it would be, I don’t think the Yankees have truly found the magic formula to shutting down the Astros. It’s baseball. This stuff happens, and it happened at a bad time for Houston. And if it continues in Game Six, great. If not, the Yankees are good enough to win anyway.

Yankees 5, Astros 0: Tanaka, Judge, and Sanchez carry Yanks to 3-2 lead in ALCS

The 2017 New York Baseball Yankees are one win away from going to the World Series. What a time to be alive. The Yankees finally — finally! — solved Dallas Keuchel in ALCS Game Five on Wednesday night, en route to a 5-0 win and a 3-2 series lead. Hell of a rebuilding year, eh?


The ‘Hiro We Need, Not The ‘Hiro We Deserve
So does everyone still want Masahiro Tanaka to opt-out of his contract after the season, or no? Yeah, I thought so. Tanaka made his third start of the postseason Wednesday night and it was another gem, a seven-shutout inning masterpiece against a lineup that has looked more punch-and-Judy than power-and-contact this series.

Only twice during Game Five did Tanaka face a real jam. Yulieski Gurriel, who is pretty much the Astro hitting the ball hard right now, roped a double to left field to start the second inning. Three ground outs later, including one to Starlin Castro with the infield in and one to Tanaka himself, put an end to that threat. That the Yankees had the infield in in the second inning tells you important this game was.

Then, in the fifth, a single by No. 8 hitter Marwin Gonzalez and a walk to No. 9 hitter Brian McCann put two men on base for the Astros with one out. Trouble was brewing and Tommy Kahnle started warming up in the bullpen. Eight pitches later, the inning was over. Tanaka struck out George Springer and Josh Reddick on four pitches each. Only three of those eight pitches were no-doubt strikes. He got Springer and Reddick to chase out of the zone, which Tanaka does better than anyone.

Game Five started when Springer lifted a fly ball to right field that carried and carried and carried to the wall before settling into Aaron Judge‘s glove. I thought it was a routine fly ball off the bat, but it very nearly went out. That was ominous. From that point on though, Tanaka faced 25 batters and only seven hit the ball out of the infield. His seven innings of no effs given pitching featured eight strikeouts and ten ground ball outs. Three hits and one walk, scattered.

Through three postseason starts Tanaka has allowed two runs on ten hits and three walks in 20 innings. He’s struck out 18. That includes his seven shutout innings in Game Three of the ALDS — an elimination game, of course — and two excellent starts against the Astros in the ALCS, a lineup that was baseball’s most fearsome in the regular season given how much power and contact ability they have. Tanaka is not impressed, however. The man is stone cold killer on the mound.


Beat Up Dallas Before Going To Houston
Dallas Keuchel has earned the Yankees Killer™ tag throughout his career. He went into Game Five with a 1.09 ERA in 57.2 career innings against the Yankees in the regular season and postseason. That includes six shutout innings (on short rest!) in the 2015 Wild Card Game and seven shutout innings in Game One of the ALCS last week. Keuchel has crushed the Yankees. No doubt about that.

And that’s why it felt so damn good to watch the Yankees crush Keuchel in Game Five. He didn’t make it out of the fifth! Never before had he thrown fewer than six innings against the Yankees. Only once before had he thrown fewer than seven innings. The Yankees got on the board quick, with a two-out run in the second inning. Castro banged a double to left-center and Greg Bird hooked a single to right field for a 1-0 lead. Perfect.

One inning later, the suddenly unstoppable Chase Headley led off with a single, then was erased on Brett Gardner‘s fielder’s choice. That turned out to be significant though, because now the Yankees had a faster runner at first base. Judge then brought Gardner home with a rocket double down the left field line and into the corner. See? Faster runner scores from first. Judge is really starting to feel it huh? It’s hard to believe, but at this point, he has to be considered one of the front-runners for the ALCS MVP award.

Anyway, this game turned in the fifth. Turned into the best way to put it. The Yankees went into the inning with a 2-0 lead and that’s great, but it didn’t feel particularly safe. They scored two big insurance runs in that inning and chased Keuchel from the game, giving the offense a few cracks at the bullpen. And it all started with an error. Headley hit a soft grounder to third and Gurriel missed Alex Bregman’s throw at first, allowing Chase to get to second. Hooray.

With two outs and Headley on second, Judge worked a walk in which is seemed like Keuchel was going to give him nothing to hit. If he was willing to chase out of the zone, great. But he wasn’t getting anything in the zone. Judge took the walk, and Gary Sanchez took a hanging slider for a ride to left field for a run-scoring single. Sir Didi Gregorius then found a hole up the middle with a ground ball single to score Judge and give the Yankees a 4-0 lead.

The Didi single ended Keuchel’s night. His final line: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K on 86 pitches. Satisfying. Very satisfying. What was the difference between Game One and Game Five? The Yankees refused to chase down below the strike zone. Check it out:


I count eight strikeouts and three ground ball outs on pitches below the strike zone in Game One. In Game Five, I count three strikeouts and nothing else. No ground balls. The Yankees made Keuchel get the ball up, which is baseball speak for don’t give him any gifts by chasing down. If he wanted a swing, he’d have to get the ball up in the zone. The Yankees laid off those pitches down and it made all the difference in Game Five.

Further evidence Sanchez is getting locked in: he clocked a solo home run off Brad Peacock in the seventh inning for a 5-0 lead. Gary went 1-for-3 with the go-ahead double in Game Four and 2-for-4 with the run-scoring single and solo homer in Game Five. He’s driven in five of the team’s eleven runs the last two games. Judge and Sanchez are really starting to do damage, folks. That sure is exciting.

Shout out to Kahnle for two stress-free innings to close out the game. He did allow a ninth inning double to Carlos Correa, which had Aroldis Chapman stirring in the bullpen, but there was no drama after that. Seven up, six down on 20 pitches for Kahnle in Game Five. He’s scattered two hits and two walks in ten scoreless innings this postseason. Sure, why not? David Robertson and Chapman will go into Game Six having had two straight days off. Huge.

The DH spot lives! Headley went 3-for-4 and is 5-for-7 over the last three games. Thank goodness for that. The Designated Out-Makers act was no fun. Gregorius had two hits as well. The Astros? They had four hits in the game. The Yankees have held them to nine runs and 22 hits in five games. That’ll work.

Bird went 1-for-2 with two walks in Game Five and is now 4-for-13 (.308) with seven walks and six strikeouts in the series. That’s a .308/.550/.615 line. Aaron Judge, have you been impressed by Bird’s big series? “I’m not impressed. That’s Greg Bird,” said Judge after the game. Hell yeah it is.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Head on over to ESPN for the box score and for the video highlights. We have a Bullpen Workload page. Here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
A chance to clinch the American League pennant. That’s what’s up next. The ALCS is heading back to Houston for Game Six. A win sends the Yankees to the World Series. A loss means they’ll play a Game Seven. Thursday is an off-day, then Justin Verlander and Luis Severino will be on the mound for Game Six on Friday night. Fun fun fun.

2017 ALCS Game Five: Astros at Yankees

2017-alcs-logoWelcome to the best-of-three ALCS. The Astros won the first two games, the Yankees the last two games. It’s a new series, and it starts this evening at Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees are undefeated this postseason. They’re a perfect 5-0 at home and have outscored their opponents 30-12 in the five games, which of course includes three elimination games.

Today’s game will determine which is the greater baseball force: Dallas Keuchel against the Yankees or the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Well, I suppose we don’t have to get an answer. Keuchel could dominate and the Yankees could win anyway thanks to a rally against the Astros bullpen, the same way Lance McCullers Jr. dominated and the Yankees won anyway yesterday. That’d be fun, even if I’d love an easy win one of these days.

More importantly, today’s game will decide whether the Yankees go to Houston needing to win one game or two this weekend. Going to Houston needing to win two games would be awfully tough. Doable, sure, but a win this afternoon at home would make life sooo much easier. With the off-day tomorrow, I expect to see Joe Girardi be very aggressive with his top relievers to nail down this win. Here are the starting lineups:

Houston Astros
1. CF George Springer
2. RF Josh Reddick
3. 2B Jose Altuve
4. SS Carlos Correa
5. 1B Yulieski Gurriel
6. 3B Alex Bregman
7. DH Carlos Beltran
8. LF Marwin Gonzalez
9. C Brian McCann
LHP Dallas Keuchel

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. C Gary Sanchez
4. SS Didi Gregorius
5. CF Aaron Hicks
6. 2B Starlin Castro
7. 1B Greg Bird
8. 3B Todd Frazier
9. DH Chase Headley
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

It has been a stunningly beautiful day in New York. Sunny and cool. Pretty much perfect weather, baseball or otherwise. It’ll be a bit chilly tonight, of course. Today’s game will begin at 5pm ET and FOX Sports 1 has the broadcast. Enjoy the game.

The Yanks might see a different Dallas Keuchel in Game Five

(Ronald Martinez/Getty)
(Ronald Martinez/Getty)

Once again, the Yankees have battled back from down 2-0 in a postseason series to knot things up 2-2. They did it against the Indians in the ALDS and now they’ve done it against the Astros in the ALCS. Their reward: Dallas Keuchel in Game Five and Justin Verlander in Game Six. That’s no fun. Then again, no one thought facing Corey Kluber in Game Five of the ALDS would be fun, and we know how that went.

Keuchel, as you know, shut the Yankees down in his team’s Game One win. Seven scoreless innings, four hits, one run, ten strikeouts. He was dominant. And he’s been dominant against the Yankees pretty much his entire career. The players change but Keuchel’s dominance against the laundry has remained the same.

In theory, seeing Keuchel for the second time in the span of a week should help. The Yankees are more familiar with him now, right? Ben Lindbergh’s research suggests otherwise. During the wildcard era, pitchers who made two starts in a single postseason series showed no significant change in performance in the second start, as long as they were on normal rest, like Keuchel will be in Game Five.


Keep in mind that is a big picture look at things. That’s the average of 211 pitchers making multiple starts in one postseason series. In one individual game, anything can happen. The Yankees could benefit from seeing Keuchel for the second time in the series even though the research suggests it doesn’t really matter. And this works both ways. The Astros could benefit from seeing Masahiro Tanaka for the second time in Game Five too.

When Keuchel dominated the Yankees in Game One, he did it primarily with his sinker and slider. He threw 109 total pitches in the game and 57 were sinkers. Another 28 were sliders. That’s 52.8% sinkers and 25.8% sliders. His regular season averages: 50.8% sinkers and 18.7% sliders. Furthermore, Keuchel threw one (1) changeup in Game One. That’s all. He said Tuesday the pitch wasn’t working, so he had to lean on his slider instead.

“It mainly was a feel. I’m usually throwing 10-15, maybe 20% percent changeups, especially to this group being such good fastball hitters” said Keuchel yesterday when asked about not using his changeup in Game One. “And it was just the fact that I had some really late movement on my two-seam and my slider was really good, the cutter was decent. So I didn’t feel the need to change speeds with the changeup.”

That is sorta scary! Keuchel pitched so well in Game One despite not using his changeup, which is widely regarded as his best secondary pitch. He didn’t have a feel for the pitch, so he had to lean on the slider — and also the cutter, which he threw 19 times, way more than usual — and he still pitched effectively. Chances are Keuchel won’t eschew his changeup in Game Five. At least not if it’s working.

“Hopefully that comes into play tomorrow where they only saw one changeup,” added Keuchel.” It might come in handy … The changeup usually is the second to third best pitch. And for me to not use it hopefully will come into play for me tomorrow.”

On one hand, this sounds bad. Keuchel pitched well last time out and he did it without his best secondary pitch, and now he figures to break it out in Game Five. On the other hand, Keuchel has thrown only one changeup in the past 12 days. Including his ALDS start against the Red Sox, he’s thrown only seven changeups in the last 23 days. The changeup is a feel pitch, and if you don’t throw it much, it can be easy to lose that feel.

Even though the fastball-slider approach worked in Game One, my hunch is Keuchel will look to use his changeup more often in Game Five today, as long as the pitch is behaving properly. That means a new look for the Yankees, who didn’t see the pitch in Game One. With any luck, Keuchel will hang a few of those changeups and the Yankees will take advantage, or he’s miss out of the zone and put them in favorable counts. That’s where a potential lack of feel can come into play.

Either way, changeup or no changeup, I feel the key to beating Keuchel remains the same: wait him out. Houston’s middle relief is sketchy as hell right now — even Ken Giles, as good as he is, has allowed a run in all four postseason appearances so far — and the more bullpen the Yankees see, the better their chances of winning. Keuchel is awfully tough and he can frustrate opposing hitters and fans alike. The sooner the Yankees get him out of the game, the better.

The small things added up in Yankees’ Game Four win

Slip 'N Slide (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Slip ‘N Slide (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Whenever you have a big win, some big things have to go your way. A homer here, a double there, a strikeout here, a double play there. This all kind of goes without saying.

But there are also the little things that change everything. The borderline strike call. The tiny bit of experience you have against the opposing pitcher. The fielder being shaded a foot this way or that.

In Game 4, the big ones are obvious. The Aaron Judge hits (MVP!), Gary Sanchez‘s double and really any hit from the seventh inning on. Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman keeping the Astros relatively silent. But I wanted to break down or simply note a few of the small details that changed the complexion of the contest and led to perhaps the Yankees’ biggest win since Nov. 4, 2009.

1. Sitting on McCullers’ curve: Going into Game Four, Judge had about as good a feel against Lance McCullers as any Yankee hitter. He was 2 for 4 with a double and a walk against the righty in five career plate appearances and walked in one of his first two PAs on Tuesday.

McCullers is obviously a curveball-first pitcher, especially in Game 4, as he should be with that good a curve. But Judge has seen it well and McCullers has actually avoided the curve against Judge this year, often using his fastball and change. He’d only led off with a curve for a strike once, his first AB against Judge back in May.

But Judge is a smart hitter and knew to keep looking for it. It doesn’t take an MVP to hit a hanging curve, but it takes a good hitter to be waiting for the right pitch. He got his first pitch curve over the plate and took advantage.

2. The ABs against Chris Devenski: The Yankees have figured out Devenski. Some credit definitely goes to the Yankees’ advance scouts, including former reliever Matt Daley, who Suzyn Waldman mentioned on the WFAN postgame as involved in watching the Astros the last month or so.

Maybe the league has figured out Devenski and he just needs to adjust. Or maybe it’s just a rough stretch. The changeup master seems to have lost some steam in recent months and his three at-bats against Yankee batters were a perfect example.

The Bombers know to wait for his fastball and spit on his offspeed stuff, which he hasn’t been throwing for strikes. Didi Gregorius lined an 0-1 fastball for a triple (more on this in a second), Gary Sanchez got a 2-1 fastball and drove it to right and Greg Bird spat on a nice 2-2 change before drawing a walk. Bird did swing through a 2-1 change, but he made the adjustment.

3. Defensive non-replacement: In case you forgot, the Yankees lost a game to the Astros on May 11 this year because A.J. Hinch went to Jake Marisnick as a defensive replacement in left field and he threw out Jacoby Ellsbury at the plate. Marisnick is a very solid corner outfielder and would have been welcome for the Astros in the later innings.

But he’s out for this series after fracturing his thumb in September. That’s part of why Cameron Maybin was in left field to miss Greg Bird’s double on Monday and Marwin Gonzalez was in left on Tuesday. Gonzalez is a fine hitter and solid fielder, but has below average foot speed. If Hinch has Marisnick, he likely puts him in left starting in the seventh, when he would have had a chance to flag down Didi’s triple for an out. Or hold him at second. Either way, an injury to a backup on another team in September could have made a difference tonight.

4. Cutting down Gurriel: Backing up a moment, I just wanted to quickly mention the cut-off on Yuli Gurriel’s three-run double. Todd Frazier does a good job of cutting the ball, surely aided by his teammates, and getting Gurriel in a rundown. Finely executed rundown with the putout by Judge coming in from right field. The big man helping in all sorts of ways! The play helped keep the game at 3-0 for the moment and was a nice team effort.

5. Chase Headley and Joe Musgrove’s cutter: Musgrove tried a backdoor cutter to Headley to start the eighth-inning at-bat and missed. Headley mentioned postgame that he kept it in his mind that Musgrove may go back to it. Sure enough, he did on 2-2 and Headley lined it into left-center. That’s just smart baseball from Headley.

6. Headley’s slide: This one, pictured above, was delightful at the start, scary in the middle and exhilarating at the end. How many times have the Yankees made outs on the bases this postseason? Feels like too many. This was less a bad baserunning play and more bad luck with Headley stumbling. He’s a smart baserunner and gets lucky that Carlos Correa doesn’t hold the ball a split-second longer to wait him out. Phew. This was a small one that was a big one if you know what I mean.

7. The non-called strike: Judge fouled off the first pitch from Ken Giles. Like every pitcher this postseason, Giles then went for an offspeed pitch away. However, he didn’t get the call.


Perhaps he should have. Perhaps this was karma from the baseball gods for all the bad calls Judge has seen at times this postseason. If the count goes 0-2, who knows if Judge can fight his way to tie the game? At 1-1, Judge maintained some control and it led to his big double. Also helps that he’s seen Giles a few times now dating back to the regular season and knew what the tough righty threw.

There were plenty other examples.  One pitch in his walk on Friday perhaps led to Gary Sanchez’s go-ahead double off Giles. Maybe Didi’s bunt on Monday changed the Astros’ defensive alignment to allow his seeing-eye single in the eighth. It’s hard to discern at times.

The Yankees need many more big hits, defensive plays and strikeouts to get through this series and another seven-game set. To accompany those, they’ll need some of these small ones to go their way as well.

Thoughts prior to Game Five of the 2017 ALCS


So are we having fun this postseason or what? Once again, the Yankees have fought back from down 0-2 in a series to even things up 2-2. They did it against the Indians in the ALDS, and now the Astros are getting a taste of the Fighting Spirit in the ALCS. That win was amazing yesterday, but the series is far from over. You know that. It’s a best-of-three now. Anyway, let’s get to the thoughts.

1. Now that the series is tied 2-2, the hard part begins. Mathematically, the Yankees have to do two things to win this series. They have to beat Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander, and they have to win a game in Houston. Can’t do it any other way. Today’s game is huge for both teams, because neither wants to go back to Houston needing to win Games Six and Seven. That’s true for the Astros, not just the Yankees. Because there’s an off-day tomorrow, I imagine Joe Girardi is ready to go all out with his bullpen to nail down a win today. In a perfect world Masahiro Tanaka would throw seven brilliant innings like he did in Game Three of the ALDS, when the Yankees were facing elimination. If not, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson could both be asked to throw multiple innings. So could Aroldis Chapman if there are some stray outs that need to get got in the eighth. Girardi knows these guys will get to rest Thursday, and a win today in Game Five would make things so much easier going forward. Hopefully Tanaka continues to pitch well and takes the ball deep into the game. If not, I expect Girardi to use that bullpen aggressively.

2. Speaking of the bullpen, the Astros seem to have some issues down there, huh? Steven wrote about this last week. Ken Giles, last night’s blowup aside, has been pretty great all year. Chris Devenski and Will Harris have been very home run prone since the All-Star break though — Harris gave up Aaron Judge‘s three-run home run in Game Three — and neither Luke Gregerson nor Francisco Liriano inspire much confidence right now. There’s a reason neither see high-leverage work. The Yankees sent 15 batters to plate against Houston’s bullpen yesterday and none of the 15 struck out. That seems impossible. Could you imagine the Yankees bullpen going 15 batters without a strikeout? Keuchel and Verlander are workhorses of the first order. The Astros can reasonably expect them to pitch deep into Games Five and Six because they’ve been doing it all year. Now that the Yankees are seeing these guys a second time, hopefully they work the count a little more and not only be more effective against them, but also get into the bullpen a little sooner. The Astros have some issues down there right now, and I’ll take my chances in a battle of the bullpens any day of the week.

3. Man, how great was it to see Judge and Gary Sanchez play such huge roles in the comeback yesterday? Forget about their recent strikeout-filled slumps for a second. I’m just talking about two young cornerstone players getting huge hits in a postseason game. That is an awful lot of fun, isn’t it? These two are the faces of the franchise now. These are the types of hits and moments the Yankees are going to count on them to provide the next five or ten or however many years. And to see them do it now, in their first postseason and first full MLB season? Gosh that is awesome. Sanchez and especially Judge have looked more dangerous at the plate the last two games and it’s not a second too soon. The Yankees need those two to beat Keuchel and Verlander. I’m just glad they were able to snap out of their slumps and contribute in a huge way to that memorable win last night. That alone is really exciting and memorable.


4. Todd Frazier has been exactly the right player at exactly the right time for the Yankees. He’s been involved in basically every notable rally so far this postseason. He had the run-scoring double against Trevor Bauer in ALDS Game Four. He worked a nine-pitch walk in front of Brett Gardner‘s monster 12-pitch at-bat in ALDS Game Five. He slugged the three-run home run in ALCS Game Three the other day. Then, last night, he started that four-run eighth inning rally with a leadoff single. Frazier is a flawed hitter. He pops up a lot and it drags down his average. That’s just who he is. But, so far this postseason, Frazier has shown he’s not afraid of the bright lights and he embraces the biggest moments. And that’s on top of all the intangibles he adds. His teammates love him and he brings so much energy to ballclub. No one is having more fun than this dude. Given his role as a complementary player who bats near the bottom of the order, he’s been as good as the Yankees could’ve possibly hoped. Sometimes teams make a trade and that player just fits in perfectly. That’s Frazier.

5. Austin Romine catching Sonny Gray is absolutely going to be a thing now. Assuming the Yankees advance and Gray makes another start, of course. I hope he gets that chance. Following the game yesterday Gray said he and Romine were on the same page — he shook him off only once in five innings — and they had a good rhythm going. That sounds like more than enough for Girardi to justify keeping them together. Gray’s last four starts prior to yesterday were rough, mostly because he struggled to throw strikes, so I imagine anything that makes him comfortable and effective will remain in place going forward. That’s Romine. Gray said himself they were working well together. What can you do? I guess this is a thing now.

6. With each passing round this postseason, the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium has gotten better and better. The place was electric last night. The atmosphere was great during the Wild Card Game, it was even better during the ALDS, and now it’s better than it’s ever been since the new place opened. I went to postseason games in 2009. Aside from maybe Alex Rodriguez‘s game-tying home run against Joe Nathan, I don’t ever remember the ballpark getting as loud and as rowdy as it did during the eighth inning rally last night. It’s been amazing. Really amazing. This team is lovable — how weird is it that the most lovable team left in the postseason is the Yankees? — and fans are buying into it. The fact they’ve exceeded expectations makes it so much better. This has been such a fun ride, from the young players having so much success on down to being at the ballpark.

Yankees 6, Astros 4: Judge and Sanchez lead Yanks to come-from-behind win in Game Four

You didn’t doubt the Fighting Spirit, did you? The October ghosts have returned to Yankees baseball. I’ve missed them. The Yankees mounted a remarkable comeback in Game Four of the ALCS on Tuesday night to even the series at 2-2. The final score: 6-4. This team, man. I never want this to end.


Welcome To October In The Bronx, Kids
We have to start at the end with this game. We just have to. The Yankees were down 4-0 after six and a half innings — we’ll get to that in a bit — and Lance McCullers Jr. was razor sharp. He held the Yankees to one hit, a bloop single, through six innings. The Yankees were completely overmatched by that mid-80s curveball and mid-90s fastball. Just about everything they hit was on the ground. McCullers mowed them down.

It was until the seventh inning, with his 81st and final pitch, that McCullers made his first real mistake. He hung a first pitch curveball to Aaron Judge, and Aaron Judge did what Aaron Judge does to hanging curveballs. Long dinger into Monument Park. His previous two postseason homers were pulled to left and only a row or two back. This was a true Aaron Judge shot. Gone off the bat, the whole nine. We hadn’t seen a swing like that since September.

The Judge home run got the fans back into the game. They’d been silenced by McCullers and the dread of falling behind in the series 3-1 with Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander looming. The Judge home run energized the crowd. Then, when Didi Gregorius followed with a triple into the left-center field gap, the ballpark was back to life. Everyone was on their feet. Gary Sanchez plated Didi with a sac fly to cut the deficit to 4-2. Progress.

The eighth inning … that’s when the magic happened. The Yankees had one of their best offensive innings of the season that inning, and I don’t mean in terms of total runs scored. I’m just talking about quality at-bats, big hits, that sorta stuff. There’s a lot to go through here, so let’s recap with an annotated play-by-play.

yankees-astros-play-by-play(1) So Todd Frazier is involved in pretty much every rally these days, right? Right. That dude is in the middle of everything. I know he’s a flawed hitter because of his low average and all the pop-ups, but man, the big spot just seems to find that dude, and so far this postseason, he’s come up pretty damn big. In the eighth inning, the Yankees needed him to be a leadoff hitter, and he hooked a sinker into left field for a leadoff single. Just like that, the tying run was at the plate.

(2) Chase. Dude. Chase Headley pinch-hit for Austin Romine, swung through two Joe Musgrove fastballs for a quick two-strike count, then stroked a double into the left-center field gap. See? I told you the hits would start to fall as long as Headley keeps making quality contact. On this double, Headley slipped on the first base bag and stumbled between first and second. He was toast. The Astros had him. Carlos Correa, the relay man, took a little too long to make a throwing decision, allowing Headley to recover and make it to second base safely. It was one of those “no no no yes yes yes!” plays. Everything was going wrong, yet it all worked out. Replay confirmed Headley was safe. The tying run was in scoring position with no outs and the lineup was about to turn over.

(3) I know a run-scoring ground out is boring as hell, but during a series in which contact has been hard to come by, Brett Gardner getting that run in felt big. Ken Giles has nasty, nasty stuff, and he got ahead in the count 1-2 on Gardner. Brett was in battle mode, and he was able to pull a slider to second base to score the run and advance Headley to third. Now the deficit was only 4-3, and a fly ball would’ve tied the game.

(4) For the first time in a while, Aaron Judge had an Aaron Judge at-bat. Giles has a wicked slider and Judge spit on two of them down-and-away. He’s been chasing sliders off the plate since the start of the ALDS. Judge fouled off a fastball for a 2-2 count, and given his postseason to date, it was easy to fear the unproductive strikeout. I know I did. Instead, Giles left a slider up juuust enough, and Judge went down and hammered it off the left field wall to tie the game. To the action footage:

Man, what a moment. I thought it was gone off the bat — it certainly looked like a Judge homer off the bat — but a game-tying double off the wall works just as well. It was so great to see Judge take two sliders out of the zone, then go down to hammer the mistake slider for a game-changing hit. He’s been missing that pitch or taking it for strike three for a few games now. What a huge hit. One of the biggest of the season, hands down.

(5) Sometimes, you just need a little luck. The Gregorius single was a solidly hit ground ball that, more than anything, was well-placed. It was deep enough in the shortstop hole that Correa couldn’t reach it, and, even if it had, he wouldn’t have thrown out Gregorius. Judge was able to advance to third after freezing on the ground ball in front of him. Now the Yankees had the go-ahead run at third base with one out.

(6) Going into this eighth inning at-bat, Sanchez was riding an 0-for-18 slump that dated back to the ALDS. There were signs he was starting to snap out of it though. Last night he ripped a 98.1 mph line drive in his final at-bat that I thought was gone, but didn’t carry in the cold air. Gary’s at-bats have been progressing from ugly strikeout to weak contact to solid contact. It was progress. Giles started him with two sliders and hey, why not? I would’ve done the same thing. Sanchez can get antsy at times and chase out of the zone. Gary took both sliders for a 2-0 count, and, to my surprise, Giles gave him a 2-0 fastball. Didn’t expect that. It was 98.6 mph coming into and 113.1 mph going out.

Gregorius was running on the pitch but I’m sure he was going to score from first base anyway. What a rocket. What a huge hit. Sanchez had been fighting it all series. The Astros have pitched him really well. The Yankees aren’t going anywhere without Judge and Sanchez contributing. Judge had the home run and the game-tying double. When it was Sanchez’s turn, he doubled into the right-center field gap to give the Yankees a 6-4 lead. Shooting a 98.6 mph heater the other way. Beautiful. Just beautiful. I’ve never heard the new Yankee Stadium louder than it was at the moment.

(7) You know things are going well when Starlin Castro works a work. The Astros were on their third pitcher of the inning at this point, and the Castro walk loaded the bases. I was ready for Aaron Hicks to do the damn thing. Or at least hit a fly ball to get an insurance run in, you know? Luke Gregerson fed Hicksie a steady diet of sinkers, which is unusual. He’s an extreme slider guy. Hicks was down in the count 1-2 when he hit a weak tapper to first base, allowing Yulieski Gurriel to throw home for the force out. Blah. No more runs. But you know what? That’s okay. The Yankees had the lead.

Houston’s bullpen in Game Four: 2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K on 54 pitches. Their bullpen had the second highest strikeout rate during the regular season, behind the Yankees. They faced 15 batters and struck out zero Tuesday. The Yankees put together some high-quality at-bats in the seventh and eighth innings, got the big hits, and got a little lucky as well (Headley’s stumble, most notably). At one point in the seventh inning, the Astros had a 94.2% chance to win the game. Then the Yankees went to work against their bullpen.


Sonny Gray-t
Get it? Sonny Gray-t, like Sonny Great? Yes? No? I might break that one out again. You are forewarned. Anyway, Sonny’s last few starts have not gone all that well, mostly because he couldn’t stop walking people. And while he walked only two batters in his five innings in Game Four, he was hardly precise. Gray battled through the first two innings before setting down for his final three frames.

Through five innings, Gray held the ‘Stros to one hit and one walk, and he recorded nine of his 12 ball-in-play outs on the ground. That works. With the game still scoreless in the sixth, Sonny walked George Springer on four pitches to start the inning, then threw a first pitch ball to Josh Reddick. And that was it. His afternoon was over. Joe Girardi went right to David Robertson, which warmed my heart. Scoreless game with the middle of the order coming up? Give me the best reliever regardless of inning.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned. Reddick reached on a catcher interference — other teams are allowed to do that against the Yankees? rude — and Robertson walked Altuve to load the bases. Bases loaded with no outs without no balls in play. Walk, catcher interference, walk. Yuck. Robertson did strike out Correa for the first out, so that was cool, but then he hung the hell out of the curveball to Gurriel. Look where Romine wanted it and where Robertson threw it:


Romine set up down-and-away and Robertson left the pitch way up in the zone inside. Pretty impressive that Gurriel was able to keep that fair. A lot of times pulling a pitch like that equals a foul ball. Instead, the ball shot down the left field line and beyond the reach of a diving Frazier at third base. All three runners scored and Gurriel was thrown out after being caught in a rundown, though that didn’t mean much. The damage had been done.

Gray’s final line: 5 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K on 85 pitches. He labored a bit in the first two innings before finding a groove in the third. Gray had struck out four of the last seven me he faced heading into that sixth inning, so there was no real reason think he’d run into trouble that inning other than baseball being baseball. The Yankees were going to need a good start from Gray and they got it, as far as I’m concerned.

The Astros scored an insurance run in the seventh inning against Chad Green thanks in large part to a Castro error. He had two of them in Game Four, both pretty bad. Marwin Gonzalez looped a double into the gap, then scored when Brian McCann‘s grounder into the shift hopped up on Castro and he muffed it completely. McCann was safe and Gonzalez raced all the way around from second. Pretty terrible.

For real though, Green is the game’s unsung hero. That insurance run stunk, but, in the eighth inning, Green cut through the middle of Houston’s lineup to keep the Yankees to within 4-2. The Yankees managed to win a battle of the bullpen because their bullpen allowed only four runs. Go figure.


Judge had maybe the most complicated caught stealing in baseball history in the fourth inning. He drew a leadoff walk, then he didn’t pick up the ball on Sanchez’s one-out weak pop-up, and got doubled off first base. HowEVA, replay overturned the call and Judge was safe at first. HowEVA again, replay showed Judge did not retouch second base. D’oh. The Astros appealed, and rather than let them do it uncontested, Judge took off from first and basically tried to steal second. His only hope there was the throw from McCullers going into center field. Alas.

Tough game for Castro, who kinda sorta redeemed himself with that eighth inning walk. He went 0-for-3 with the walk and two he shoulda had it errors. Yuck. Also, Romine went 0-for-2 at the plate and saw four pitches. He also allowed a wild pitch — Sanchez gets killed for those, so it’s only fair Romine does as well — and committed the catcher interference. Sigh.

Two hits for Judge, Gregorius, and Frazier. One each for Sanchez and Headley. Greg Bird quietly drew three walks. Judge and Castro had walks as well. By the way, Judge is now hitting .308/.438/.846 in the ALCS. He might be series MVP if the Yankees win! Gotta love small sample size stats. The Yankees went 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position. That feels wrong. Whatever.

The Astros scored four runs in the game, but they only had three hits. The Yankees have held them to nine runs on 18 hits in four games so far. Too bad the series is only tied. The Gurriel double felt like it might open the floodgates, though Green shut that down. Aroldis Chapman gave us a nice and easy 1-2-3 ninth inning. Thank goodness for that.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Head on over to ESPN for the box score and for the video highlights. Don’t miss our Bullpen Workload page either. Here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Now that the series is back even, it means a) this is now a best-of-three, and b) the Yankees are going back to Houston for at least one more game. But first, the Yankees and Astros will play Game Five on Wednesday afternoon. That’s another 5pm ET start. Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka are the scheduled starting pitchers.