Archive for Playoffs
ALDS Game Five: Tigers @ Yankees
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Jose Valverde said the series wouldn’t get back to New York after Game Two. He was wrong. The Yankees bludgeoned the Tigers pitching staff in Game Four on Tuesday night, ensuring that the ALDS would come back home to the Bronx for the deciding Game Five. Someone’s season will end tonight. There will be heroes and there will be goats.
Ivan Nova is making the biggest start of his life tonight, one that will help determine if the Yankees will get a chance to exact revenge against the Rangers in the ALCS, or if they’ll head home for an early winter. He pitched well in “relief” in Game One, holding the Tigers scoreless through six-plus innings before some Luis Ayala-induced inherited runner funny business. The Yankees got to Doug Fister in that game, a pitcher they once drafted, tagging him for more earned runs (six) than he’d allowed in his final seven regular season starts combined. Here’ are the lineup Nova and Fister will be facing…
Detroit Tigers
Austin Jackson, CF
Don Kelly, 3B
Delmon Young, LF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
Magglio Ordonez, RF
Alex Avila, C
Jhonny Peralta, SS
Ramon Santiago, 2B
Doug Fister, SP
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF
Ivan Nova, SP
It’s chilly here in New York, but the sky is clear. There won’t be any rain, unlike the first three days they spent in the Bronx. The game starts at 8:07pm ET (not 8:37!) and can be seen on TBS. Enjoy.
Site Note: Ben, Joe, and I are at the game, so I have spillover threads scheduled to publish at 9, 10, and 11pm ET. Please use them accordingly to keep the site running smooth.
UPDATE: Sabathia available in Game Five, but not Verlander
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate (Oct. 6th): You can rest easy now, Verlander will in fact not be available tonight. He threw a total of 56 pitches during his between-start bullpen session this afternoon. Max Scherzer, who shut the Yankees down in Game Two, is available in relief tonight, however.
Original Post (Oct. 5th): Via George King, CC Sabathia will be ready to go out of the bullpen in Game Five if needed. “It’s my bullpen day, so I will be ready to go,” said Sabathia. Remember, Sabathia was available in relief in Game Six of the ALCS last year, but Joe Girardi never gave him the ball. Being ready is one thing, being used is another. I think the bullpen is deep enough and rested enough that CC won’t be needed unless it goes crazy extra innings, or something.
As for Justin Verlander, he will be ready to pitch in relief tomorrow night as well, but Jim Leyland insists he won’t use him. “I wouldn’t do anything foolish,” said Leyland. “I try not to do anything foolish with any of my pitchers, let alone an arm like that.”
Jorge has done his part
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(AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
Jorge Posada was a weight around the 2011 Yankees’ neck. Assigned the role of full-time DH, Jorge found himself in uncharted territory. While he’d DHed plenty in the past, and did it frequently in the 2010 season, it was nonetheless a huge change for him. Many players talk about how tough it is to play only half the game. Imagine how a catcher must feel in that situation. He goes from being involved in every play on the defensive side to being involved in none. Whether it was his role or his age, he produced below average numbers this season.
Once the Yankees figured out that holding him out against left-handed pitching would help mitigate the damage, things got better. On the season he produced 9.2 runs above average while batting lefty. Problem is, that’s not exactly a quality number for a DH. Worse, he produced -10.4 runs above average against lefties. Hence, net negative. His season ended on a sour note, too, as he went 0 for his last 11, lowering his average to .235 and his SLG below the .400 mark.
And yet Joe Girardi still declared him the DH against right-handed pitchers for the postseason. Against Detroit in the ALDS that meant every game, since Detroit brought along four right-handed starters. It felt like an odd decision, since it reduced Jesus Montero‘s role. Just before his debut, a Yankees exec proclaimed that Montero would be the team’s best DH option for the postseason. He seemed to prove that throughout September, producing a .421 wOBA in his 69 PA. That apparently was not enough to convince the Yankees’ brass.
Throughout the first four games of the postseason, Jorge has done nothing but vindicate the Yankees’ decision to stick with him. He has reached base in nine of his 15 PA, rapping a triple and scoring four runs along the way. He has accumulated .256 WPA in those games, and hasn’t been in the negatives for any game. In Game 2 he was central in a comeback attempt, producing a team-leading .143 WPA and following up Nick Swisher‘s ninth-inning homer with the aforementioned triple. If the Yankees had pulled out that game and closed out the series on Tuesday, there’s a chance that Posada could have been named MVP.
That’s still a possibility, of course. With a big Game 5 Jorge could finish off his mastery of the Tigers and drive the Yankees to the ALCS. But the Yankees shouldn’t have to lean on Posada once again. He has already done far more than was expected of him. It’s time for the big guns to step up and finish this one off. That means Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Nick Swisher. Jorge has carried all three on his back for the past four games, and that kind of heavy lifting will tire out even a peak athlete, never mind a 40-year-old.
To close this on a high note, there’s nothing to do but praise Jorge. He has come up big at a time when confidence in him has faded. Maybe he’ll continue that into tonight and beyond, but no one should expect it. Instead, it’s time to repay Jorge’s deeds. He set them up for a Game 5 showdown. His teammates can finish the job.
On Jose Valverde
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Someone's happy they allowed two runs in a non-save situation. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)
Even before we knew that the Yankees and Tigers were going to play in the ALDS, I wanted to see Jose Valverde blow a save in the postseason. The Detroit closer had gone a perfect 49-for-49 in save chances this season despite shaky peripherals (3.55 FIP, 71st out of 134 qualified relievers), prompting many old school types to dub him the best closer in baseball. They even gave him an award for it. We know that’s not true though. Add in the way over the top celebrations, and we all had every reason to want to see Valverde blow a save.
After the Tigers won Game Two of the ALDS, the right-hander declared that “the series will finish in our house … They have a good team, but the series is not (coming) back to New York.” This came after Valverde allowed four of the seven men he faced to reach base that night, turning a 5-1 lead into a 5-3 lead while stranding the tying run on base. He walked the tight rope again the next night, but again held on for the save. The Yankees won Game Four, and now the series is coming back to New York despite Valverde’s proclamation.
Heading into tonight’s Game Five, it’s almost a certainty that Jim Leyland will use his closer at some point, win or lose. I still want to see him blow a save, but given the circumstances, I’d rather see him not even get a chance tonight. A walk-off win against Valverde to eliminate the Tigers would basically be the most amazing thing ever, but I’m not sure I can deal with the stress. That 10-1 score in Game Four was stressful enough. I’ll happily take about a dozen first inning runs over rubbing Valverde’s nose in the mud any day of the week. The Yankees have bigger fish to fry than some closer spouting guarantees.
Previewing Doug Fister, Part Two
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Will Fister switch up the game plan tonight? (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)
When I previewed Doug Fister prior to the continuation of Game One, I noted that he’s an extreme strike-thrower that gets ahead with his fastball and generally pitches lefties and righties the same way. Righties will get a few more fastballs, lefties a few more changeups, but otherwise it was the same approach. He’s not a huge stuff guy, instead relying on command and the willingness to attack hitters rather relentlessly.
The Yankees touched Fister up for six runs on seven hits and two walks in 4.2 IP in Game One, drawing the same number of free passes in that game that he issued in his final four regular season starts combined. He did plow through the lineup the first time through the order, but the Yankees adjusted and really went to work once it turned over. Seven of the final ten hitters he faced reached base, and the Yankees won the game.
Fister will start the decisive Game Five tonight, so I figured it would be good to look back at Game One to see how he attacked the Yankees hitters. It’s just one game, a sampling of just 90 pitches, so we shouldn’t take any of this stuff to heart. It’ll just give us an idea of what he did in that game, and give us something to look for tonight. Let’s break apart the two different types of hitters, starting with the guys he’ll see more of…
Left-Handed Batters
(via Brooks)
Pay attention to the numbers in the strike zone plot, and remember this is from the catcher’s view. The vast majority of the number ones (i.e. the first pitch of a given at-bat) are down and/or away. Most of the higher pitch numbers (three and up) are inside. Fister started the Yankees left-handed batters off with pitches away before coming back inside a little later in the at-bat to keep these guys honest. Outside then inside, and usually that was it.
The pitch selection, seen in the chart to the right, shows that Fister threw his five different pitches at a rate consistent with the regular season. He only threw 64 pitches to lefties in Game One, so one individual pitch represents 1.6% of the sample. The difference in the rates is like, plus or minus three pitches. Nothing crazy. For the most part, Fister was his usual self against all the left-handed batters the Yankees threw at him on Saturday. As for the guys on the other side of the plate…
Right-Handed Batters
(via Brooks)
Obvious statement is obvious: Fister pounded the Yankees righties (Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Russell Martin) inside with fastballs on Saturday. I mean really pounded them inside; just two (two!) of the 26 pitches he threw them were on the outer half of the plate, and they were two waste pitches so far outside they were easily taken for balls. All but six of those 26 pitches were two-seam fastballs, only three were offspeed pitches (two curves and a changeup).
Unlike his approach to lefties, it seems pretty clear that Fister and his battery mate Alex Avila made an effort to go at New York’s three right-handed bats high-ish and hard, preventing them from getting any kind of extension in their swing. Martin, A-Rod, and Jeter combined to go 2-for-6 with a double, a ground ball single, three strikeouts, two ground outs, and one fly out off the big right-hander in Game One.
* * *
Just looking at Fister’s combined pitch chart (all batters), you can see that he threw the majority of his pitches to the armside, or inside to righties and away to lefties. That could just be his comfort zone, some guys have trouble throwing to the glove side, or it could be by design. My semi-obvious theory: he was pitching to Yankee Stadium. He didn’t want to put a pitch outside so a righty could flick it towards the short porch, nor did he want to have a lefty pull their hands in and yank something down the right field line. It’s just a theory, but if it’s what Fister was trying to do, it didn’t work. Five of the nine balls he allowed to be hit to the outfield went to right, another two to center.
Whether or not Fister continues to bust righties in with fastballs while working away to lefties remains to be seen, but that seems to have been their plan in Game One. It didn’t really work, but that doesn’t necessarily mean an adjustment is coming. The Tigers could be banking on better execution instead.
The Game Changer
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Hurts so good. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
Last night’s Game Four win was all about A.J. Burnett‘s surprisingly effective start and a late-inning offensive relay, where everyone in the lineup just kept passing baton to the next guy. The final score (10-1) doesn’t really tell the whole story story though, because it was just 4-1 heading into the eighth. Baseball is a team game, but one man really stood on his head a bit and contributed to that 4-1 lead. That would be Curtis Granderson, the club’s MVP.
I don’t want to say that we’re overlooking what Granderson did last night, I don’t think that’s case at all, but it’s worth taking a step back to appreciate his efforts again during the off day. The defensive stats may not like him to varying degrees this year – DRS hates him (-15 runs), UZR doesn’t like him much (-5.3), and dWAR says he’s basically average (-0.2) – but even if you don’t like Granderson’s defense, you can’t deny the two plays he made last night. That first inning lunging catch (video) completely changed the dynamic of that game. If it gets by him, that ball has inside-the-park grand slam potential. At the very least, it’s three runs for the Tigers. Instead they got zero, then Burnett settled down and kept it that way. Six innings later, he made another thrilling catch on a Jhonny Peralta fly ball (video), laying out to save a run, keep the tying run from coming to the plate, and ending the inning.
On the offensive side of the ball, which is really what Granderson is known for, he doubled in the team’s third run of the game, which also helped setup the fourth run later in the inning. He also tripled in Derek Jeter in the first inning of Game Three and whacked a solo homer in Game Two as the Yankees tried (and failed) to make a comeback. Everyone’s spent so much time focusing on how poorly Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher have hit over the last two postseasons that they haven’t bothered to notice what Curtis has done with the bat, namely hit .318/.464 (!)/.614 in the playoffs as a Yankee. Remember the came tying triple off Francisco Liriano in Game One of last year’s ALDS? Another feature in his cap.
Granderson had a weak September (.205/.300/.375 in exactly 100 PA), no denying it, but he still had an MVP caliber year. We’re talking a .262/.364/.552 batting with 41 homers, and he’s shaken off that slow September to again become a force in the ALDS. He was a two-way threat last night, creating runs with the bat and certainly saving runs with the glove. Granderson impacted the game as much as any player on the field, which is something he’s been doing all year.
ALDS Game Four Chat
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The Yanks and ALDS Game Five: A Brief History
Posted by: | CommentsThe current playoff format has been in effect since 1995, and the Yankees have made the postseason more than any other team during the wildcard era. They’ll play a winner-take-all Game Five against the Tigers tomorrow night after keeping their season alive last night, their sixth decisive Game Five since the current format was put in place. How did the Yankees fare in the previous five Game Fives? Let’s look back…
(MLB.com)
1995 vs. Mariners: Seattle wins 6-5 in 12 innings (box) (WPA)
This one will always and forever be the heart-breaker. I was just 13 years old at the time, about three weeks away from my 14th birthday. The Yankees had just made the postseason for the first time in my life, the first ever club to win a wildcard spot. New York won Game One thanks to five late-inning runs, then took Game Two in 15 innings thanks to Jim Leyritz’s two-run walk-off dinger. Up two games to zip in the best-of-five, I remember feeling pretty awesome about how things were going. We all know what happened next.
The Mariners scored six runs in the fifth and sixth innings of Game Three to extend their season, then evened up the series thanks to five eighth inning runs in Game Four. David Cone and Andy Benes squared off in Game Five, and the Yankees had a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the eighth. Ken Griffey Jr. hit a solo homer, and Cone unraveled. Tino Martinez walked, Jay Buhner singled, and Alex Diaz walked to load the bases. Buck Showalter stuck with Cone at 141 pitches, who then walked Doug Strange to force in the tying run. The score remained tied until Randy Velarde singled in a run off Randy Johnson in the top of the 12th, but Jack McDowell could not make the run stand up. Joey Cora led off the bottom of the 12th inning with a bunt single, then Griffey singled on a ground ball back up the middle. Edgar Martinez, who went 12-for-21 with six walks in the series, doubled into left, scoring both runs for the series clinching walk-off win. It was my first taste of brutal, gut-wrenching defeat.
1997 vs. Indians: Cleveland wins 4-3 (box) (WPA)
A back-and-forth series, the Yankees and Indians alternated wins and losses for the first four games of the series before coming together in Cleveland for matchup of young hurlers in Game Five: Andy Pettitte and Jaret Wright. The Tribe jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the third inning thanks to a Manny Ramirez double and a Matt Williams single, and they tacked on another run in the fourth. The Yankees did rally back to make it 4-2 in fifth courtesy of a Bernie Williams single and a Manny error, then Wade Boggs made it 4-3 with a single in the sixth. The score would remain unchanged for the rest of the game though, which ended when Bernie flew out to deep center with the tying run on second against Jose Mesa.
2000 vs. Athletics: Yankees win 7-5 (box) (WPA)
Clearly the worse team of the late-90′s dynasty, the Yankees dropped the opener before winning the next two games. Oakland completely wrecked the Yankees in Game Four to force Game Five, another Pettitte start. Gil Heredia was on the bump for the A’s, and this one was over before it started. New York scored four runs before making an out in the first inning, and ended the frame up 6-0. The Athletics chipped away with solo homers and sac flies, but ultimately it was just too big of a hole to climb out of. Eric Chavez, representing the tying run, popped out in foul territory against Mariano Rivera to end the game and the A’s season. For the first time in the wildcard era, the Yankees had won a deciding Game Five in the ALDS.
(MLB.com)
2001 vs. Athletics: Yankees win 5-3 (box) (WPA)
Seven years after the Mariners made that huge comeback, it was time for the Yankees to make a comeback of their own. The A’s took the first game on the strength of solo homers from Jason Giambi and Terrence Long against Sterling Hitchcock. Tim Hudson completely stifled the Yankees in Game Two, and Oakland had a commanding two games to none series lead.
The comeback started in Game Three, a thrilling 1-0 win that featured Derek Jeter‘s famous flip play and seven shutout innings from Mike Mussina. The Yankees blew the doors off Game Four early, forcing a Game Five with a 9-2 win. The A’s did not go quietly in the deciding game, far from it. They scored a run in the first and a run in the second off Roger Clemens, but Alfonso Soriano knotted things up with a two-run single in the bottom of the second. Scott Brosius drove in a run on error the next inning, then Jeter tacked on another run with a sac fly the next inning. David Justice tacked on a homer off Hudson in relief, and the Yankees cruised to a 5-3 thanks to 4.2 scoreless, two-hit innings from their bullpen.
2005 vs. Angels: Anaheim wins 5-3 (box) (WPA)
This one was just painful. Not rip your heart out painful like 1995, just ugly. Ugly to watch. Mussina outdueled Bartolo Colon in a Game One win, but the Halos rebounded with a win behind John Lackey in Game Two. The Randy Johnson-Paul Byrd matchup in Game Three did not go planned, with the Angels winning a wild, 11-7 contest. Shawn Chacon (Shawn Chacon!) stood on his head with 6.1 shutout innings in Game Four to force the deciding game. Game Five was just awful. Moose didn’t get out of the third, outfielders were running into each other … just an unwatchable game. Francisco Rodriguez closed the game out, getting Hideki Matsui to ground out to first with the tying run on base.
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So that’s five Game Fives in 16 postseasons, with two losses and three wins. The two wins came in back-to-back years against the Athletics, and of course the Yankees haven’t won an ALDS against a non-Twins team since that 2001 series against Oakland. Scary stat, but it’s meaningless. Different team, different manager, different opponents, yadda yadda yadda. What happened six years ago doesn’t matter now. Tomorrow’s game will have it’s own script, one that will be dictated by Ivan Nova and Doug Fister.
The Biggest Game of the Season
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(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Two Octobers ago, A.J. Burnett outdueled Pedro Martinez in Game Two of the World Series one night after Cliff Lee thoroughly manhandled the Yankees in Game One. I called it the most important game of the season a few days later, and as Burnett has struggled terribly over the last two seasons, we’ve always been able to look back at that Game Two start as his redeeming quality. Help the Yankees win a World Series, especially as a starting pitcher, and you’ll be welcome in this town forever.
As we’ve gotten further and further away from the 2009 World Series though, the less we’ve been able to use that Game Two start as a crutch. Yes, it happened and Burnett was amazing, but one game doesn’t make a five-year contract. A.J. continued to pitch terribly with no end in sight, but the team gave him the opportunity to wash his hands of the last two years last night. It wasn’t by design, some poor weather forced them to give him that opportunity, but they gave it to him nonetheless. Last night, in Game Four of the ALDS, he delivered and added another big game to his Yankees resume. Sounds weird, but it’s true.
You know the situation. It was an elimination game on the road against a team that has a really good offense and was still riding the high of Justin Verlander’s dominance in Game Three. Burnett had nothing going for him before the start, just the support of his teammates and manager, and the forced support from us fans. We didn’t have faith in him, you all know this, but we were all in his corner because of the uniform he wore. In a way, A.J. had nothing to lose. No one expected much from him, so it would have been really tough for him to disappointment. Anything productive would be a pleasant surprise.
Although I still consider that Game Two start to be Burnett’s “signature moment” in pinstripes, remember the context. That wasn’t an elimination game, it was a “lose and you’re down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series heading to Philadelphia for three games” game. Certainly a crummy situation, but not lose or go home. His actual performance was worse last night, but I think his performance relative to expectations was far great than it was that late-October night against Pedro. That’s what makes it’s so amazing.
Burnett won’t get a pass on his performance during this last few years because of a pair of well-timed gems, but it certainly softens the blow a bit. And remember, the biggest game of the season is not exactly a fixed event. Last night’s game was only the biggest game of the season until the Yankees won. Now the biggest game of the season is Thursday night, Game Five. That one will be in the hands of Ivan Nova and basically all of his teammates other than Burnett. A.J. won’t be available after pitching last night, but he earned the day off anyway.
