Archive for Playoffs
World Series Game Six Spillover Thread III
Posted by: | CommentsYou da man, Andy. You da man.
World Series Game Six Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsGet some, Godzilla.
World Series Game Six Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsWhen did Jamie Moyer start throwing righthanded?
World Series Game Six: Phillies @ Yankees
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Well, Game Five didn’t go as planned, but luckily the Yankees have two more chances to wrap this thing up.
Andy Pettitte is taking the ball on just three days’ rest, which really isn’t that big of a deal because he’s been starting on extra rest basically for the last month and a half, plus he’ll have five months to rest after tonight. No excuses, just get it done.
What about you guys, are you nervous? I’m definitely feelin’ it, but I’m also more excited for this game than I have been for any baseball game in quite some time. Probably as far back as Game Seven in 2001. Don’t get me wrong, I was stoked for Game Five the other night, but I guess the possibility of clinching at home makes it that much better.
Scotty Brosius, MVP of the 1998 World Series, is throwing out the first pitch tonight. Here’s the lineups:
Philadelphia
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Shane Victorino, LF
Chase Utley, 2B
Ryan Howard, 1B
Jayson Werth, RF
Raul Ibanez, DH
Pedro Feliz, 3B
Ben Francisco, LF
Carlos Ruiz, C
Pedro Martinez, SP (5-1, 3.63)
Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Johnny Damon, LF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Hideki Matsui, DH
Jorge Posada, C
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Brett Gardner, CF
Andy Pettitte, SP (14-8, 4.16)
If you need to think about something until game time, think about this: tonight might the last time we ever see Pedro Martinez or Andy Pettitte on the mound. Crazy, huh?
A.J. ready for pen work, just in case
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees’ approach tonight — and, if necessary, tomorrow — is a simple one: Get the ball to Mariano with a lead. With the season down to its final two games, Rivera will be ready and willing to leave it on the field, and tonight, he can go two innings. With Joba Chamberlain, Damaso Marte and Phil Hughes ready and seemingly able to pick up the big outs, the Yanks could be looking at a six- or seven-inning affair tonight.
If the Yanks need to go to the pen earlier, if Andy Pettitte can only deliver so many pitches on three days’ rest, the Yanks have a new weapon available to them. Because he threw just 53 pitches on Monday night, A.J. Burnett is available in relief. “I just want the ball again,” Burnett said to reporters. “Hopefully they won’t need me, but I’ll do whatever they need. If I get the ball again, that would be great. Whatever they need, I’m ready.”
Over the years, we’ve seen many pitches come out of the pen on short rest in tight spots. Mike Mussina did it to save the Yanks’ season during the 2003 ALCS, and Randy Johnson did so against the Yankees in the 2001 World Series. Could A.J. be that hero if the Yanks need to strengthen the bridge to Mariano?
For Yankee fans, the idea may not be so comforting right now. We are, after all, still recovering from Burnett’s 2+ IP, 6 ER appearance in Game 5. Yet, A.J. might just be called upon the 6th inning if need be, and we can’t lose sight of the fact that he is, last start notwithstanding, a very good pitcher. In his first inning of work this season, A.J. was at his best. Opponents in the first inning hit just .240/.317/.368 as compared to .247/.336/.393 overall.
Hopefully, Andy Pettitte can be that bridge, and the Yanks won’t need A.J. But as the season turns down it’s final stretch, it’s all hands on deck for the Yankees. Plus, it’s October; stranger things than an A.J. relief appearance have happened.
Memories of Pettitte’s Game 6s past
Posted by: | CommentsAs we tick off the hours, minutes and seconds until Andy Pettitte’s first pitch to Jimmy Rollins tonight shortly after 7:57 p.m., we have ample time to reflect upon tonight’s starter. On Sept. 28, Andy Petitte got the win when the Yankees clinched the AL East with a victory over the Red Sox. On Oct. 11, Pettitte earned himself a W when the Yankees eliminated the Twins in the ALDS and secured themselves an ALCS berth. On Oct. 25, Pettitte won again as the Yanks downed the Angels to move on to the World Series.
So tonight, Pettitte will go for what is, in horse-racing, termed a superfecta. He’ll try for the chance to win all four clinching game for the Yankees this year. That would be some feat for a pitcher who perennially can’t decide whether to keep pitching or just retire.
For Pettitte, tonight will mark his 40th playoff start. If all goes according to plan, if he can last 6.2 innings or more, he will throw his 250th playoff inning tonight as well. Those are gaudy numbers, Pettitte is no stranger to Game 6. Tonight will mark his fifth Game 6 start. In three of those starts, the Yankee needed a clincher but got it from Pettitte just once. In the fourth, the Yanks were averting a World Series loss, and although Pettitte was masterful, Josh Beckett was better. So let’s review.
November 3, 2001: World Series Game 6
After two dramatic come-from-behind wins in New York City, the Yankees returned to Phoenix to face the Diamondbacks with the World Series hanging in the balance. The Bombers had a 3-2 lead with Andy Pettitte lined up to pitch in his first career Game 6. Just two innings and 14 batters later though, Pettitte’s night would be over.
The Diamondbacks were merciless that Saturday night in Arizona. They scored one in the first and three in the second. Pettitte put the first two runners on in the third, and Jay Witasick, in one of the World Series’ most disastrous relief performances, came in. Witasick allowed two inherited runners to score and six more that inning. The Yanks were down 12-0 before anyone realized what just happened.
On the night, Pettitte threw just two innings and gave up six runs on seven hits and two walks. He struck out just one. Later on, word emerged that Pettitte may have been tipping his pitches. Even if he was not, that’s one game YES watchers will never see on Yankee Classics.
October 15, 2003: ALCS Game 6
Considering the outcome of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, Game 6 is often overlooked. In it, Joe Torre gave Pettitte the ball; Andy pitched well enough to win; and Torre and the bullpen gave this one away as the Red Sox won 9-6.
Pettitte’s final line in this outing wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t great. He struck out five in five innings and allowed four earned runs on eight hits and two walks. The damage, though, was limited to one inning. In the third, a home run, two walks and two singles gave the Red Sox a 4-1 lead, but that would be all for the scoring against Pettitte. He left this one with the Yanks up 6-4, but Torre gave the ball to Jose Contreras, Jeff Nelson, Felix Heredia and Gabe White. Nine outs away from the World Series, Mariano Rivera never pitched, and the rest is Aaron Boone-inspired history.
October 25, 2003: World Series Game 6
Ten days after a mediocre ALCS Game 6, Pettitte got the ball with the Yanks’ backs against the wall. Heavy favorites to win the World Series, they split two games in New York against the Marlins before losing two of three in Miami. The Yankees returned, then, to Yankee Stadium needing a home sweep to win, and Pettitte, masterful in throwing eight shutout innings in Game 2, would get the ball.
Pettitte was great that night. He threw seven innings and allowed two runs, one earned, on six hits and three walks. He struck out seven and threw 71 of 106 pitches for strikes. He should have been hailed as a hero, but Josh Beckett was just better. Beckett threw a five-hit shutout and struck out nine as the Marlins stunned everyone to win the World Series.
Little did we realize at the time, but that Saturday night affair would be Pettitte’s last start in pinstripes until 2007. The Yankees assumed he would just resign with them, but the Houston Astros offered more. For three years, the Yankees had little in the way of shut-down starting pitching, and Pettitte would be missed. I’ll take another Game 6 similar to that one tonight.
October 25, 2009: ALCS Game 6
This one — the ALCS clincher — is still fresh in our minds, and every Yankee fan would take this outing and outcome from Pettitte. Facing a feisty Angels’ club and with the Yanks just 27 outs away from the World Series, Pettitte came through in a big way. In 6.1 innings, he allowed just a run on seven hits and one walk. He struck out six and threw 64 of 99 pitches for strikes. He could locate his curveball, spot his fastball and keep the Angels off balance. With Mariano Rivera in for the final six outs, the Yanks found themselves back in the Fall Classic.
And so we arrive at tonight’s game to see if a tried-and-true formula can deliver a win. Mariano Rivera has saved more wins for Andy Pettitte than any other duo in baseball history. We want one more. As we sit 27 outs away and a few hours from first pitch, Andy Pettitte, number 46, the man with the stare, will be on the mound, ready to deliver.
How did Pettitte fare after high stress starts in 2009?
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Later on tonight, Andy Pettitte will make his final start of 2009, for better or worse. As you know, he’ll be working on three days’ rest for the first time since 2006, and many fans are concerned about how the 37-year-old will rebound on short rest. While his stats on three days’ rest are pretty good (3-1, 2.80 ERA in five career short rest starts in the playoffs), the data is so old and not indicative of anything that it might as well be recorded in hieroglyphics.
Instead of relying on those numbers, let’s take a look at how Pettitte fared on normal four days’ rest following what I’ll call “high stress outings” in 2009. By “high stress outings,” I mean starts in which Andy threw a lot of pitches while allowing lots of baserunners in not many innings. Think 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 3 BB kind of outings. Then, by looking at how he performed four days later, it’ll give us an approximation of what Pettitte will do tonight. It’s obviously not a perfect comparison, but it’s better than pretty much anything else we have right now.
Game Three over the weekend wasn’t kind to Andy, but he battled through six innings while putting eight men on base and letting four runners cross the plate. He threw 104 pitches, so it would definitely be considered a “high stress outing.” Let’s see how Pettitte rebounded from similar starts this year.
High Stress Outing: April 26th @ Boston: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 R, 116 pitches, -0.14 WPA
Next Start: May 1st vs Anaheim: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 5 R, 111 pitches, +0.02 WPA
HSO: May 18th vs Twins: 6.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 4 R, 105 pitches, -0.03 WPA
NS: May 23rd vs Phillies: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 114 pitches, -0.11 WPA
HSO: June 3rd vs Texas: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 4 R, 104 pitches, -0.17 WPA
NS: June 8th vs Tampa: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 R, 104 pitches, +0.06 WPA
HSO: June 25th @ Atlanta: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 R, 95 pitches, -0.23 WPA
NS: July 1st vs Seattle: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 98 pitches, +0.17 WPA
HSO: July 6th vs Toronto: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 BB, 6 R, 109 pitches, -0.20 WPA
NS: July 11th @ Anaheim: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R, 83 pitches, -0.32 WPA
HSO: August 21st @ Boston: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 R, 105 pitches, +0.05 WPA
NS: August 26th vs Texas: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 R, 103 pitches, +0.23 WPA
I was going to break it down start-by-start, but after recapping the first one, I gave up because all I would be doing is giving too much credit to the already small sample size. It wasn’t worth the time.
So anyway, that’s six instances this season when Andy really had to work hard to get outs, then had to come back and pitch four days later. In those six follow-up starts, Pettitte averaged 6.1 IP, 6.2 H, 2.5 BB, 3.7 R, 102.2 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is not great, but it’s certainly serviceable. The good news that with exception of that July 1st start against the Mariners, all of the follow-up starts came against good offensive clubs, so the data isn’t too skewed.
Pettitte’s average start this year was 6.1 IP, 6.0 H, 2.4 BB, 3.2 R, 103 pitches, +0.05 WPA, which is ridiculously close to his average in those follow-up starts. The biggest difference is that he allowed half a run more following a real tough outing, which is probably just a BABIP thing since the number of baserunners and innings pitched are nearly identical. I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by the results.
Of course, these starts come on regular four days’ rest in the middle of the season, not three day’s rest after Pettitte already has 219.2 IP on his left arm. We can arbitrarily dock him an inning and tack on another run, meaning we should expect 5+ innings and about 5 runs tonight, but that’s nothing more than guesswork.
What I wanted to see with this post is how Pettitte rebounded after a taxing start, and as you can see above, he generally didn’t suffer any sort of hangover. It’s far from a perfect analysis, but it’s much better than just assuming he’ll do bad for no other reason than because you have a bad feeling about it.
Photo Credit: Brian Kersey, UPI
Booing Pedro Martinez
Posted by: | CommentsLater tonight, the Yankees and Phillies will take to the field in the Bronx for Game 6 of what has been a very compelling World Series. Tonight’s game will pit Andy Pettitte and his 17 postseason victories against a reinvented Pedro Martinez. During the regular season, these two pitchers have faced each other six times, and the Yankees were 4-2 in those games.
For the Yankees, this will be their second crack against Pedro, and tomorrow’s game should be a bit more serious than the Game 2 pitcher’s duel. During Game 2, the crowd soaked up Pedro Martinez, and Pedro Martinez soaked up the crowd. Chants of “Who’s your daddy?” rang through Yankee Stadium from the first pitch to the last, and as Pedro left the mound, he smirked at adoration from the crowd.
After the game, Pedro’s press conference featured Pedro being Pedro. He talked at length about his relationship with the Yankees and New York. “If I was on the Yankees, I’d probably be like a king over here,” he said after Game 2. “I know they really want to root for me. It’s just that I don’t play for the Yankees. I’ve always been a good competitor and they love that. They love the fact that I compete.”
In addition to these hyperbolic comments, Pedro gave his thoughts on New York parenting. Although FOX replays showed no words coming out of Pedro, the Phillies’ right-hander claims he was shocked at the words spewed forth from the stands. “It’s a new Yankee Stadium, but the fans remain the fans,” Pedro said during a rambling post-game press conference. “I remember one guy sitting right in front, in the front row, with his daughter. He had his daughter in one arm and a cup of beer in the other hand and saying all kinds of nasty stuff. I just told him, ‘Your daughter is right beside you. It’s a little girl. It’s a shame you’re saying all these things.’ I had to stop and tell him because I’m a father myself, and God, how can you be so dumb to do those kinds of things in front of your child? What kind of example are you setting?”
Pedro didn’t stop to tell anyone anything. Instead, he embellished to seem more like an entertainer than a pitcher. We go to the park to see Pedro pitch, win, lose or draw, he thinks.
That has to end tomorrow. As 7:57 p.m. rolls around, Yankee fans can’t let Pedro enjoy himself on the mound. He is expecting a world of “Who’s your daddy?” and he is expecting to be half-loved and half-jeered. Let’s give him a proper Bronx jeer. Let’s just boo and boo and boo. The love-hate relationship should disappear into the meaning of Game 6, and we should remember the Pedro who went head-hunting against Chuck Knoblauch and Derek Jeter, not the Pedro who wishes he could have been a Yankee.
Nearly 11 months ago, I called upon the Yankees to sign Pedro Martinez. At the time, I judged it to be a low-risk, high-reward signing that would have given the Yanks a veteran arm mid-way through the season. Now, with the World Series in the balance, the Yankees will face off against Pedro Martinez. Once, we might have wanted Pedro Martinez. Tonight, we want to beat him. Let’s do it — and show him New York’s tough love. No one deserves it more.
Unsurprisingly, it’s Pettitte for Game Six
Posted by: | CommentsVia Mark Carig, the Yankees will hand the ball to Andy Pettitte on three days’ rest in Game Six tomorrow night. This should surprise no one; the writing’s been on the wall for weeks. Carig notes that Pettitte feels physically fine, which is always a plus. Pettitte has not made a start on three days’ rest since Sept. 30, 2006 when he was on the Astros. A full list of Andy’s starts on three days is available here.
Andy was on the mound the last time the Yankees clinched a World Championship. Here’s to hoping he repeats the trick tomorrow night.
Fans retain optimism after Game 5 loss
Posted by: | CommentsGame 5 of the World Series felt a lot like Game 5 of the ALCS. The Yankees readied for the kill, but A.J. Burnett failed them early. In the ALCS, he allowed six straight base runners, leading to four first-inning runs. In the World Series, he allowed four straight base runners, leading to three first-inning runs. Burnett would be the goat in both games, even though he settled down in the ALCS. His seventh-inning performance in that game led to the loss, though in the World Series he didn’t wait that long, allowing two more runs in the third inning.
Yet when I got home after the game, and then again this morning, I noticed a sense of optimism from the Yankees fan base. I wasn’t the only one. As Ross from New Stadium Insider noted on his Twitter account, “Up 3-2 to the Angels, there was panic in the streets. Up 3-2 to the Phillies, people are planning a parade. What’s the deal?” It’s an interesting question. Why are Yankees fans optimistic now when they were less so in the ALCS?
I can’t answer for everyone, but here are my three main reasons.
1. The Yankees had a history with the Angels
During the Joe Torre era, the Yankees faced the Angels twice in the playoffs, losing both times. Those old feelings certainly lingered during the ALCS. There was panic when the Angels won Game 3 — though mostly because of the managerial decision that preceded the loss. The Yankees had a chance to go up 3-0 and they blew it. Even after a 10-1 drubbing, fans were in a panic after the Yankees dropped a winnable Game 5.
The negative feelings also had to do with how the Yankees lost Game 5 of the ALCS. Burnett put them in an early hole, but they rallied back in the seventh to take a two-run lead. But then the Yanks blew that and lost the game. It’s one thing if the team is losing the entire way, like Game 5 of the World Series. It’s quite another when they rally back from a big deficit and then give it back.
Beyond the history with the Angels, there’s the thought that they’re a better team than the Phillies. This isn’t a knock on the Phillies — they’re certainly the best team in the NL — but the Angels had a good season and put up a fight in the ALCS. Many thought that the battle of baseball’s best took place in the league championship, not in the World Series. It’s understandable, then, that fans would be in more of a panic after losing Game 5 to a team they thought best equipped to beat the Yankees.
2. The Yankees have beaten all of Philadelphia’s non-Lee starters
Cliff Lee is easily the Phillies best pitcher. The Yankees have faced him twice in the World Series and have lost both times. That can be disheartening if he’s scheduled to pitch a potential Game 7, but he’s not. Game 5 was his last start, and the Yankees have beaten the Game 6 and potential Game 7 starters. The lack of Lee, in other words, is inspiring in itself.
If the Yankees lost Game 6 of the ALCS, they likely would have faced the Angels’ best, John Lackey. If they lose Game 6 of the World Series, they’ll face either Cole Hamels or J.A. Happ, neither of whom is Philly’s best. But even before that, there’s plenty of confidence from Yankees fans about beating Pedro Martinez in Game 6. He pitched well in Game 2, but can he pull yet another rabbit out of his hat? It’s almost the same deal as with Joe Saunders, really.
3. The Yankees made statements by beating the Angels and taking three straight from the Phillies
The past certainly plays into this sense of optimism. After a panic following the Game 5 loss in the ALCS, fans were treated to a hell of a game back at the Stadium. They chipped away at Joe Saunders before finally breaking through. I think that win set up some intense optimism, and even a Game 5 loss in the World Series couldn’t completely destroy that. Because there is precedent, Yankees fans seem more confident in the World Series Game 6.
There is also lingering optimism from beating the Phillies in three straight games, two of them in Philadelphia. The Yanks out-pitched and out-hit the Phillies in those contests, and I think that instilled Yankees fans with a sense of confidence. It’s not like in the Angels series, where the Yankees lost two winnable games. They lost pretty definitively in Games 1 and 5 (even though they had a comeback chance in the latter).
Surely there are other reasons to remain optimistic, but for me these are the big three. The Yankees have played like the better team in each of their three postseason series. There’s no reason to lose confidence because they lost one game in Philadelphia. As with the ALCS, no one thought the World Series would be a cakewalk. It would have been nice to close it out last night, but there’s every reason in the world to be confident that the Yankees will do it on Wednesday evening.
