Archive for Polls

(Jamie Squire/Getty)

(Jamie Squire/Getty)

We’re not even half way through the 2013 season — seems like a perfect opportunity to discuss Phil Hughes‘ looming contract situation! The once-heralded prospect from California reached The Show back in 2007. Six-hundred and seventy-five innings (and several injuries) later, he’s amassed a career 4.40 ERA (4.25 FIP), which equates to a cumulative 10.1 WAR according to FanGraphs. In terms of peripheral stats over the course of his career, he’s struck out 7.62 per nine, walked 2.82 per nine, and surrendered 1.27 homeruns per nine. With that said, he’s only 26 year’s old and seems to be heading in the right direction (though his last start wasn’t wonderful). This season, he’s pitched to a 4.43 ERA which is actually just a touch over his 4.15 FIP. His strikeout and walk rates have been better than his career norms so far, and with any luck, his HR/9 rate will end up closer to his career norm than the inflated rate we witnessed all last season.

So here’s the rub. The Yankees have the option of proposing a qualifying offer to him after this season. Should they go that route, Hughes would remain in pinstripes for another season at a salary in the neighborhood of roughly $13-15M.  This would delay his free agency for another year should he accept the offer (and would presumably qualify the Yankees for a supplemental first round draft pick if he chooses to take services elsewhere).  Subsequently, if Hughes reached free agency in 2015, he’d be potentially competing for another contract against guys like Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Masterson, or Max Scherzer among  others — obviously, the list of potential free agents can and probably will change rather drastically as teams attempt to retain their players between now and then (complete 2015 list here).

The Yankees could forgo the qualifying offer altogether after this season and let Phil simply test the free agent market — which would probably be in Phil’s best interest financially.  2014 brings a mediocre group of free agents that includes notable names such as Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Jon Lester (who has a $13M club option), Colby Lewis, Shaun Marcum, and Josh Johnson. Lincecum and Halladay seem to have lost a lot of their star power (due to declining ability and injuries), and I’d be surprised to see Lester’s option does not get picked up. I’d also be surprised to not see Johnson, Garza, and maybe even Shields get traded (and extended) before then, which would all of a sudden makes that list a lot less interesting.  Depending who else is available on the market will heavily influence Hughes’ perceived value.

Or, the Yankees could take an alternate and perhaps more desirable path, and buy out Hughes’ 2014 season in addition to a few more with an extension.  Technically, the Yankees could also try to trade Phil before this decision has to be made, but seeing as though they’ll likely not be sellers by the deadline, I just don’t see this happening, nor do I think they would get a ton in return anyway.  On the one hand, the Yankees face a perilous rotation situation next season.  Pretending Michael Pineda is healthy and effective (and that alone may prove to be an excercise in absurdity), that leaves the Yankees with … well, it leaves them with CC Sabathia and Pineda.  After that, it’s some combination of David Phelps, Ivan Nova, and not much else.  I’d love to believe Manny Banuelos could be in the mix, but that’s probably waaay to optimistic given his rehab timetable and overall progress.  Maybe Hopefully Andy Pettitte and/or Hiroki Kuroda are coaxed into another year in pinstripes, but that is not a garauntee by any means given their age and vocalized interest in retirement.

(Elsa/Getty)

(Elsa/Getty)

On one hand, having Hughes in the mix would certainly make the rotation a bit more digestable on paper, plus it’s comforting to know what weaknesses you have in a player rather than finding out down the road what baggage someone else brings.  On the other hand, there are the talks about an austerity budget which poses a definite financial dilemma, and might be the biggest contributing factor as to why the Yankees may pass on Hughes (along with others) altogether.  To be absolutely clear, I hope the Yankees elect to bring Hughes back – not because he has become the wunderkind that was advertised throughout the minors, but because I think he’s a younger alternative to many of the options out there, and honestly just about as effective at this point.  To Hughes’ credit, he has also shown occasional capacity to be more than just a back-of-the-rotation type of arm.  Also, I don’t necessarily envision the Yankees acquiring another headline-caliber pitcher — the Sabathias of the world are hard to come by after all, but who knows.

So let’s say for a moment that the Yankees roll the dice on Phil and offer him an extension.  What might that contract look like?  When asked this very question during Thursday’s RAB Live Chat, I whimsically answered five years, $50M.  In retrospect, that price seems a bit conservative – though the number of years seems realistic enough.  Really, that’s the price I would want the Yankees to pay, although I would definitely not complain with a four year, $52M agreement similar to Edwin Jackson’s.  In actuality, I’d be surprised if it didn’t cost more though.  Perhaps five years, $60M seems more plausible.  At that rate, Hughes would still have some legitimate wealth, and wouldn’t completely break the bank for the Yankees (not to mention the contract would still include his peak years).  For what it’s worth, we’ve also seen guys like Jered Weaver sacrifice a few dollars to stick around with a team he’s comfortable with, and maybe Hughes would do the same for the Yankees (though that’s not necessarily the norm nor would I expect it).

Interestingly enough, Baseball-Reference’s comparitive list of pitchers’ performance most similar by age includes Kyle Kendrick and John Lackey.  Kendrick isn’t really useful for contract comparisons as he’s basically going through the same process himself.  Lackey could make for an interesting discussion though.  If Hughes performs very well for the remainder of the season (especially if the pitchers market becomes increasingly scarce), an inflated contract could become more likely.  In his final year with the Angels, Lackey was making $10M.  Boston rewarded him with a five-year, $82M salary.  This is also similar to the deal that Anibal Sanchez received from the Tigers (though his included a club option).  Both of these contracts are probably “best case” scenarios for Phil — but they are still within the realm of plausible.  After all, how many times have we seen a team overpay a guy for whatever reason.  Also, other organizations may not worry as much about his fly ball tendancies if their stadium is more pitcher friendly.

Conversely, if Hughes has a really disappointing season from here on out, he could end up with an offer closer to Rickey Nolasco, say, a three-year, $36M pact — or, a few years to re-prove himself at a standard rate.  Given the premium placed on pitching, the fact that teams have money to spend and Hughes’ favorable age, I’d bet he lands a contract closer to Lackey before I’d bet on one similar to Nolasco — though my guess is he’ll fall somewhere in between, ultimately ending up slightly above Edwin’s arrangement.  In any event, the Yankees have some tough decisions to make.  Whatever they ultimately do, I’m sure it’ll be scrutinized heavily.  In the meantime, what would you do?

Which contract should the Yankees offer Phil Hughes?
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Categories : Hot Stove League, Polls
Comments (90)
May
13

Fan Confidence Poll: May 13th, 2013

Posted by: | Comments (45)

Record Last Week: 5-1 (24 RS, 15 RA)
Season Record: 23-13 (157 RS, 138 RA, 20-16 pythag. record), 1.0 games up in AL East
Opponents This Week: @ Indians (doubleheader, Mon.), vs. Mariners (three games, Tues. to Thurs.), vs. Blue Jays (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Categories : Polls
Comments (45)

Record Last Week: 3-3 (21 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 18-12 (133 RS, 123 RA, 16-14 pythag. record), 1.5 games back in AL East
Opponents This Week: Mon. OFF, @ Rockies (three games, Tues. to Thurs.), @ Royals (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (53)
(Elsa/Getty)

(Elsa/Getty)

No team has been more beset by injuries this year than the Yankees. They’ve used the DL ten times already, the most in the big leagues. Some injuries are more serious than others, and some absences are more noticeable than others. Still, ten players on the DL one month into the season is a little extreme.

With a lineup that is averaging just four runs per game since the blowout Indians series (team 106 wRC+ overall), it’s clear the offense doesn’t pack as much punch as it once did. The Yankees can’t hit lefties at all — .225/.300/.365 (78 wRC+) as a team — and the injuries are a major reason why. The pitching staff has been pretty awesome (4.22 runs per game, 3.64 FIP), and that’s why the club owns the second best record in baseball at 17-10.

Some of those injured players are getting closer to a return, and a month gives us a good enough to look to determine which guy the Yankees have missed the most. With all due to respect to Kevin Youkilis, Ivan Nova, and Frankie Cervelli, this is limited to players who started the season on the DL and would have unquestionably made the 25-man roster if healthy. That means no Michael Pineda and Cesar Cabral, basically, and it leaves us with four prominent position players.

Curtis Granderson
The Yankees lost their top power hitter five pitches into his Grapefruit League season, when an errant J.A. Happ pitch broke Granderson’s forearm and put him on the DL for more than two months. Curtis played in his first Extended Spring Training game just yesterday, getting two at-bats before it started raining. The Yankees have hit an MLB-best 38 homers this season, so they haven’t been the powerless punch and judy offense so many (including me) expected. Still, losing a legitimate 40-homer hitter is a blow to any team.

Derek Jeter
October ankle surgery turned into an April setback, which will force the Cap’n to the sidelines until the All-Star break. Jeter hit .316/.362/.429 (117 wRC+) last season and that’s close to impossible to replace at the shortstop position – the team’s shortstops are currently hitting .214/.289/.264 (52 wRC+) –  but the Yankees especially miss his right-handed bat against lefty pitchers. He hit .364/.399/.542 (157 wRC+) against southpaws in 2012, and boy would that fit nicely atop the lineup these days.

Alex Rodriguez
The Bombers knew about A-Rod‘s hip injury in December, so they were able to secure a more than capable replacement in Youkilis. That said, the old and broken down version of A-Rod produced more in 2012 (.272/.353/.430, 114 wRC+) than the totally awesome and rejuvenated version of Youkilis in 2013 (.266/.347/.422, 108 wRC+). The difference is especially noticeable against lefties, where A-Rod massively outproduced his third base replacement (152 vs. -40 wRC+). Rodriguez’s right-handed bat would fit perfectly into the middle of the lineup, especially against southpaws.

Mark Teixeira
Teixeira hurt his wrist in mid-May while with preparing for the World Baseball Classic with Team USA, so the Yankees didn’t have much time to find a replacement. Lyle Overbay has been decent overall (98 wRC+) and much more than that against righties (.322/.375/.610, 163 wRC+), but he’s also been useless against lefties (-63 wRC+). Despite his decline, Teixeira was very productive last year (.251/.332/.475, 116 wRC+), especially against lefties (.269/.333/.531, 129 wRC+). Once again, that ability to mash southpaws is something the Yankees miss in a big way right now.

* * *

Four players who, in recent years, occupied the top four spots in the lineup. All are missed in their own way, but some are definitely missed more than others.

Which injured player do the Yankees miss the most?
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Categories : Injuries, Polls
Comments (74)

Record Last Week: 5-2 (24 RS, 24 RA)
Season Record: 15-9 (112 RS, 97 RA, 14-10 pythag. record), 2.5 games back in AL East
Opponents This Week: vs. Astros (three games, Mon. to Weds.), Thurs. OFF, vs. Athletics (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (50)

Record Last Week: 4-2 (28 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 10-7 (88 RS, 73 RA, 10-7 pythag. record), 2.5 games back in AL East
Opponents This Week: @ Rays (three games, Mon. to Weds.), vs. Blue Jays (four game, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (66)
Apr
17

Poll: When Will Derek Jeter Return?

Posted by: | Comments (30)
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

It has been nearly six months since Derek Jeter had his left ankle surgery and nearly one month since he was setback by inflammation and required a cortisone shot. Yesterday we heard the Cap’n had to scale back his rehab work over the weekend, and that was before Joe Girardi confirmed Jeter isn’t particularly close to appearing in rehab games. From Andrew Marchand:

“[Early May] was a date that was thrown out there,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “The easiest way for me to say it is he will be back when he is back — when he can physically do it on an everyday basis, and I don’t think any of us will know the exact date until we go through some trial and error.

“He is not ready to play in games. I don’t think they necessarily have an exact date where they know he is going to play in games. We’ll just go day by day and see how he feels.”

(snip)

“Sometimes you can take too many ground balls,” Girardi said. “They talked about lessening that load just because he was taking so many. Derek is such a creature of habit. To get him to break a cycle sometimes is difficult. He is going to want to do as much as he can as soon as he can, so we are just trying to make sure we don’t go too fast. But there was no setback.”

Girardi added that the scaled back the workload was not a setback — they’re making sure he doesn’t press too hard and aggravate anything, apparently — but saying Jeter “will be back when he’s back,” doesn’t sound particularly promising.

The Yankees will continue to rely on Eduardo Nunez at shortstop for the time being, assuming pitchers stop hitting him with pitches at some point soon. Jayson Nix is safe as the utility infielder even though he’s been dreadful on both sides of the ball so far. They simply don’t have another option right now. I do think they should start combing the trade market for a better backup infielder though, especially since a 38-year-old shortstop with a bum ankle will be need a capable backup even once healthy.

Anyway, the Yankees will be without Jeter for what will almost certainly be the entire month of April. How much longer will be miss after that? Who knows. Let’s find out what everyone thinks.

How long until Jeter is activated off the DL?
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Categories : Injuries, Polls
Comments (30)

Record Last Week: 4-1 (36 RS, 14 RA)
Season Record: 6-5 (60 RS, 47 RA, 7-4 pythag. record), 1.0 game back in AL East
Opponents This Week: Mon. OFF, vs. Diamondbacks (three games, Tues. to Thurs.), @ Blue Jays (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (46)

Record Last Week: 2-4 (24 RS, 33 RA)
Season Record: 2-4 (24 RS, 33 RA, 2-4 pythag. record), 2.0 games back in AL East
Opponents This Week: @ Indians (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), vs. Orioles (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (67)

Spring Training Record: 14-18 (140 RS, 156 RA)
Regular Season Record: 0-0 (0 RS, 0 RA)
Regular Season Schedule This Week: vs. Red Sox (three games, Mon. to Thurs.), @ Tigers (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
Comments (53)