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Bat Alex Fifth

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An article on lineup protection by Ken Rosenthal inspired some thought on the state of the Yankees lineup. It has been widely speculated that Alex Rodriguez needs protection in order to hit at his best. Why people think this, I have no idea. He’s Alex freakin’ Rodriguez; shouldn’t he be the one protecting others in the lineup?

The short, short version of the protection myth: hitters benefit from having a power hitter behind them because a pitcher is more likely to pitch more cautiously and throw more strikes so that he won’t have to face said power hitter. Anecdotally, this makes a degree of sense. A pitcher working extra cautiously can be prone to making mistakes, and mistakes lead to big plays. Even absent a screw up, the increase in strikes should lead to more hittable pitches.

Ah, but what of the hitters in front of the power duo? Ryan Howard, via Rosenthal’s article, believes that the guys in front of him contribute to his success just as much as the guy behind him. This also makes a degree of anecdotal sense. Wouldn’t a pitcher become more cautious with a few men on base — particularly if they’re in scoring position — than he would in fear of the on-deck hitter?

In the Yankees lineup, batting Alex later seems to be the best choice. Sabermatricians may disagree, arguing that lineup order doesn’t have much affect on the number of runs it can produce. While that’s true in a purely statistical sense, Rosenthal makes an excellent point to the contrary:

The numbers that statistical analysts produce to debunk the importance of lineup protection are difficult to ignore. But those numbers are mere outcomes that reveal little about a pitcher’s process — his approach to an at-bat, a game situation, a lineup as a whole.

We obviously cannot measure these factors as they relate to a pitcher’s approach. This is why a study of the effect of lineup protection would likely yield less than accurate results. But that doesn’t mean we can’t put together a case based on circumstantial evidence, right?

The top of the Yankees order is filled with on-base machines. Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and especially Bobby Abreu find themselves on base well more than the average player. Add Jason Giambi’s exquisite plate discipline and you have an excellent chance that Alex hits with plenty of men on base. Plus, don’t forget that dude hitting behind him…what’s his name…Hideki Matsui. He may not be Manny Ramirez, but he provides a more than adequate degree of protection.

I’ll admit that the next bit of evidence is a bit disingenuous. Nothing here speaks of the players hitting in front of Alex in these particular at bats, and it also comes with the caveat of a small sample size. All that aside, in 461 career plate appearances when batting in the fifth slot (roughly a season’s worth with a stint on the DL), his line is .334/.422/.641, good for a monstrous 1.063 OPS, his highest of any position in the batting order. Of course, he has much larger samples when hitting in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots. But it’s not like we’re working with a sample size of 40 plate appearances.

Many fans would object to this because they don’t want Alex hitting with men on base. “He chokes,” they say. “And he was pressing last season,” they add, and in both instances they’re not wholly inaccurate. However, in 294 at bats with runners on last season, his OPS was .938 (.293/.404/.534). Not too shabby.

The Yankees high on-base guys, combined with Alex’s career trends, is, I believe, reason enough to place him fifth in the order, at least to start the season. The guys ahead of him will afford him many opportunities to hit with men on base, and the guys behind him — from Hideki to Jorge to Robby (sorry, MInkie) — basically make protection in the Yankee order a non-issue.

Photo credit: AP Photo/Julie Jacobson

Keeping expectations low for Yanks’ own Felix Unger

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In 1968, Neil Simon introduced the world to Felix Unger, a satirical portrayal of a hypochondriac. Well, ladies and gentlemen, the Yankees have their own hypochondriac earning nearly $10 million a season. That man is, of course, oft-injured pitcher Carl Pavano.

And wouldn’t you know it, the Rajah of Rehab is at it again. This time, he was the unfortunate recipient of a line drive off the bat of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales during batting practice. While Brian Cashman says it’s just a bone bruise, LoHud’s Peter Abraham noted that bone bruises often take 18 months to heel (Just kidding).

Meanwhile, Pavano is indeed slated to pitch on Sunday against the Phillies during a Grapefruit League contest. Sadly, the game won’t be on TV, but many other games will be shown on the YES Network in the coming weeks. Glory days are here again.

But joking aside, the Yankees will be counting on Carl Pavano to pitch this year. I’m not sure we should really expect too much from him. Last week, Joseph took a look at Pavano’s numbers over his last few seasons on the mound. I want to look at what we should expect from him this year.

Let’s break it down by projection.

IP GS ERA
PECOTA 90 131.2 21 3.32
PECOTA 50 108 17 4.63
Marcel 70 NA 4.50
ZiPS 128 20 4.64
CHONE 2.1 90 NA 4.38

Boy, that 90-percentile PECOTA projection sure looks appealing, doesn’t it? Well, don’t get your hopes up. It’s hard to imagine Carl Pavano as an integral part of the Yankee rotation this summer. At best, Pavano may start around 20 games and throw 115-120 innings. That still leaves about 14 starts for the team’s 5th starter slot.

More discouraging – but not very surprising – is Pavano’s expected ERA. Pavano is set to deliver around 115 unspectacular innings of league-average ball. That 4.50 ERA is hardly comforting. Luckily, the Yankees are a team built to score runs. So Carl may actually win more than a handful of games. He most likely won’t be a dominate pitcher though.

Luckily for us though, the Yanks have ample back-up plans. They’ve got Darrell Rasner and Jeff Karstens. They’ve got Tyler Clippard and Humberto Sanchez. And they’ve always got Phil Hughes. These young guns all look a lot more appealing than one league-average Carl Pavano.

Image: Tony Randall, left, as Felix Unger. (Courtesy of Slate)

Yanks can do better than Miguel Cairo

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I’ve never tried to hide my dislike of Miguel Cairo. Part of it is because he’s not a very good baseball player. Part of it is because I picked him up on the recommendation of a friend in fantasy baseball way back in 1998, and he burned me with a .268/.307/.367 season. But mostly, it’s because he’s not a very good baseball player. I was quite relieved when in the winter of 2005, Brian Cashman declined Cairo’s (or, more accurately, his agent’s) demand for a one-year, $2 million contract — though I was obviously dismayed at the ensuing moving (need I even mention it here?).

Yankees fans fell in love with him in 2004, by far his best major league season, when he hit .292/.346/.417. Predictably, his OPS dropped in his 2005 stint with the Mets, tumbling from .763 to .620. Yes, 2004 was nice for Cairo, but it will never be reflective of his true ability. Rather, his 2003, 2005 and 2006 seasons demonstrate what he will provide a team. In those seasons he OBP’d .289, .296 and .280, respectively. Even in a utility position, that is simply atrocious.

Baseball traditionalist like John Sterling try to have you believe that Cairo provides value. “It seems like he’s on base in every game he plays,” says Sterling (roughly paraphrased, though that may indeed be the exact quote). This simply is not true. A utility infielder has two jobs: to play good defense and to not kill the team at the plate. Even a .320 to .330 OBP would be acceptable for a utility infielder. Yet, Cairo hasn’t even broken .300 in the past two years. As for his defense, it’s average at best. The Yankees can and should get better than a limp bat and average defense from a utility infielder.

Problem is, quality utility infielders aren’t exactly common, and when they are effective, it’s not usually on a consistent basis. However, when you know a player won’t be effective — and we know that of Cairo — why even bother? What, you can’t find another infielder who will OBP .280?

I’ll admit, there’s an inherent problem with the Yankees finding a quality utility infielder: lack of playing time. A-Rod, Jeter and Cano aren’t the type that take days off, so barring DL-inducing injuries a utility infielder would be looking at starting maybe 15 games, and getting an additional 20 or so late-inning at bats in blowouts. Why, then, would a player sign on when there’s a good chance they’ll only get between 80 and 100 at bats?

Perhaps that’s the reason why Ronnie Belliard signed a deal to play backup for the Nationals. Personally, I can’t stand the guy and the way his tongue hangs out at the plate — it makes him look like a cartoon dog. But he’ll supply you with the desired .320 to .330 OBP, though I can’t speak for his defense. He’s played exactly one major league game at shortstop, but that can be remedied. When Jeter rests, Alex moves to short (there’s no reason to rule that option out), and Belliard plays third.

The question, though, is whether the Yankees approached him and he turned them down because of the playing time issue, or if they even thought to approach him at all. It’s quite a shame when Miguel Cairo is signed as a utility infielder before Ronnie Belliard, so I’m really hoping it’s the former.

This shouldn’t be an issue next season. Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez (a nickname I’m hoping sticks even after the government official leaves his post) should be in the utility role by then. I’m sure we’ll be writing about his performance and progress over the course of the year.

Giambi doesn’t want to play half a game

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I heard this in a soundbyte by Jason Giambi on ESPN Radio this morning, so unfortunately I don’t have a link to provide. The long and short of it: Giambi is going to prepare this spring as if he’s a first baseman. Says him, it would make it easier to step into the role if forced to during the season. We all know Giambi, though; he’s not exactly going to be content riding the bench for all but his three to five at bats.

This leads me to a misconception among some Yankees fans (though I’m not sure how common): that Giambi is being pulled from first base because he’s a terrible defender. While that’s true, it’s certainly not the entire reason why Brian Cashman plans to use him as a DH this season.

Rather, Cashman’s plan revolves around Giambi’s health. He’s 36 years old, and his body is a bit older because of his steroid abuses. Playing out in the field — diving for the occasional ball out of his range (if you can call it range) and stretching for throws — is only going to expedite the breakdown of his body. There’s significant risk that if he’s out there four or five times a week, we’ll see a late season drop-off similar to 2006. With a hitter of Giambi’s caliber, there’s no reason to take that risk.

There are but two factors that stand in the way of this being a perfect move. First is the issue of Giambi’s splits. It is common knowledge that he has hit significantly better over his career while playing the field (.871 career OPS as a DH, 1.011 as a first baseman). There’s really no explanation for it beyond his comfort factor, and that may not even go a long way in this case. However, if he’s spending a full year at DH, it stands to reason that he’ll find his groove in that role and produce like he did as a first baseman.

The other factor is the platoon at first base. Doug Mientkiewicz was brought in to hit against right handers, and Andy Phillips and Josh Phelps are left to duel over the other side. Problems exist with both halves of the platoon. Minky has relatively even splits (.759 career OPS against righties, .780 against lefties), and actually hits for a tad more power against lefties (.400 career SLG vs. .420). If you plan to use him as your starting first baseman — which isn’t exactly a wise move in my opinion — there’s no reason to set him up with a platoon.

If Josh Phelps mans the other side, there won’t be much of a problem (.857 career OPS against lefties). Problem is, no one knows if he’ll impress enough to make the team, and if he does, his health comes with no guarantees. Beyond my opinion that Andy Phillips has no business on the Yankees roster, he has terrible numbers against lefties (a career .489 OPS against lefties, compared to .746 against righties). To place him in a platoon would be beyond foolish; it would actually make the team worse.

So what if Phelps doesn’t stay healthy or doesn’t play well enough to make the team? I suppose Andy Phillips could serve as the backup first baseman, but there are certainly better options. Why not let Giambi serve as the backup and play once a week in the field? That will keep him a bit happier, since he’ll get some playing time out there. And it will allow the Yankees the flexibility of an extra roster spot which they can use on someone who impresses in camp (Kevin Thompson and Bronson Sardinha are the guys I’d like to see). Of course, this path would give cause to sentimental fans to scream: “Give the spot to Bernie!” You could do worse, I suppose, but the team should be concentrating more on finding filler cogs in its minor league system.

This, of course, is all contingent on how things play out this spring. The point is, though, that the Yankees would be wise to let Giambi take some fielding practice in Spring Training. Lord knows, we don’t want to see Andy Phillips’ name on the Opening Day roster in any kind of platoon scenario.

Image courtsey John Iacono/SI

Who Is Carl Pavano?

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At this point in his career — after the string of injuries that plagued him for now a season and a half — it seems difficult, if not downright impossible, to explain Carl Pavano. Of course, many Yankees fans try to explain it with a common New York phrase: “He’s a bum!” Given the way events have unfolded, it’s tough to disagree. From the shoulder tendonitis that mysteriously lasted half a season to his buttocks injury in Spring Training 2006 to the car accident debacle on the eve of his supposed return, Pavano has proven to be an enigma in New York.

Some say he can’t handle the pressure of New York, a la Kenny Rogers. Actually, most say that. The rest are left in awe as he continues to somehow stay off the field. Even with his supposedly intense winter workout regimen, it’s tough to find even slim hope that Pavano will be worth a fraction of his four-year, $39.95 million deal.

Even if he does stay healthy, ask many critics, can he be effective? It’s not like Pavano was a superstar when he signed with the Yankees. Rather, he was a pitcher who had shown flashes of very-goodness earlier in his career and who, in his prime, came through with a stellar walk year. So when he came to the Yankees and alternately stunk up the joint and pitched decently, it came as no surprise; we’ve all seen that story before.

When I heard Pavano was secluding himself in Arizona to work out this winter, I warmed to him a little. When I heard he was seeing the same sports psychologist that treated Scott Proctor prior to the 2006 season, I warmed some more. Maybe, just maybe he can help this team.

Crazy, right?

Maybe, maybe not. It really depends on his mental state. If he’s in as good a shape as he and his trainers let on, and if he’s dedicated to pitching in New York, he can be an asset. If he’s just half-assing it to put up a front, well, we have a problem. Unfortunately, we cannot measure someone’s mental state, so that question is difficult, especially at this point in the spring, to answer.

What we do have are trusty statistics to help us begin to figure out Pavano.

The easiest difference to notice between Pavano’s 2004 and his 2005, beyond the injury, is his 1.77-point spike in his ERA. However, since we know plenty of factors, some of which are out of the pitcher’s control, compose a pitcher’s ERA, we need to dig a bit deeper and find out why his ERA spiked.

First and foremost, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was a major factor. There have been studies showing that pitchers have little to no control over balls put in play, so a spike or decline in BABIP can be largely attributed to luck. A .280 mark is about average. For context, Shawn Chacon posted a .240 BABIP in New York 2005, which positively affected his 2.84 ERA. Earlier in the year, in Colorado, he posted a much more normal .283 BABIP, leading to a 4.08 ERA. In 2004, Carl Pavano posted a .287 BABIP, an average mark, which led to his 3.00 ERA. In 2005, that number shot up to .333. Surely, the increasing of an occurrence over which a pitcher has little or no control contributed in some way to his 4.77 ERA.

We now move to the traditional peripherals to evaluate pitchers: strikeouts per nine, walks per nine, homers per nine, and groundball to flyball ratio. Here’s where things get strange: his strikeouts per nine declined, but so did his walks per nine. In fact, his walks per nine decreased at a greater rate, as evidenced by the rise in his strikeouts to walk ratio (2.84 in 2004, 3.11 in 2005). Though, the lesser walk rate can be correlated in some way to the rise in BABIP.

I’ll revisit the strikeout rate in just a moment. For now, let’s look at Pavano’s gopher ball rate. A normal 0.64 per nine innings in 2004, it more than doubled to 1.53 in 2005. Usually, this is due to an increase in the pitcher’s flyball rate. Of course, Pavano being Pavano, this is not the case. His groundball rate actually increased in 2005, going from 1.43 to 1.60. So what gives?

In my view, there are two factors playing here. First is Pavano’s focus. A rise in BABIP isn’t always attributable to bad luck. As Randy Johnson proved in his New York tenure, sometimes it’s because you get slapped around. That can be, though not necessarily, linked to a lack of focus. This seems at least a little probable, given Pavano’s transfer from the mostly empty Dolphin Stadium to the media circus in New York.

The second factor is his elbow. As we know, doctors found bone chips in his elbow in May of 2006. Bone chips can linger undetected for quite some time, so who knows when they initially appeared. I have always thought that, given the circumstances, it would seem in some way logical that the chips appeared in Spring Training 2005. That would help explain his raised home run rate and lowered strikeout rate. It would also explain his seemingly out of the blue shoulder tendonitis in June, 2005, as well as his ensuing rash of injuries (i.e., he was adjusting his motion to compensate for the discomfort in his elbow).

Of course, this theory is shot if the bone chips appeared in the spring of 2006. Then we’re back to a combination of luck and his mental state as the causes of his woes, both of which we cannot measure. Such is life with Carl Pavano.

Will he rebound in 2007? There’s absolutely no telling until April at the earliest. Even a stellar spring doesn’t mean much. He’s got to get out there and prove he can do it in games that count. What we do know is that if he returns his peripherals to 2004 form, we’ll get at least a No. 4 starter out of Pavano. However, none of that can be determined until April. We wait with bated breath.

See also: Mike’s draft preview, college edition.