Trade Deadline Archives - River Avenue Blues

Taking stock of the Yankees’ trade chips prior to the deadline

June 20, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

We are less than six weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and already the trade winds are beginning to blow. The Rays sent Denard Span and Alex Colome to the Mariners a few weeks ago, and the Royals have since gotten in on the act by trading Jon Jay to the Diamondbacks and Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals. The sellers are starting to sell.

The Yankees, clearly, will be buyers prior to the trade deadline. Starting pitching is an obvious need. Adding a reliever could be worthwhile too. It is entirely possible other needs will pop up over the next few weeks as well. The Yankees have luxury tax payroll space and a deep cache of prospects, which allows them to buy basically whatever they want at the deadline. They can get anyone.

“Clearly starting pitching was always a concern. It’s definitely one of the areas we’re going to be looking at,” said Hal Steinbrenner to Scott Orgera at the quarterly owners’ meetings last week. “Purposely left a decent amount of money for just this. If we decide to go get a pitcher and if a pitcher’s available, I think we definitely have the flexibility that would allow me to do just that.”

While no player is ever truly untouchable, the Yankees do have some untouchables. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino are as untouchable as it gets and Gleyber Torres has joined that group as well. “Come on now. I’ve got to walk around this city,” joke Brian Cashman to Erik Boland the other day when asked whether trading Torres is a possibility. Even with those guys off the table, the Yankees have plenty of trade chips. Let’s take stock.

The Andujar Question

Might as well start here. The Yankees reportedly made Miguel Andujar off-limits in trade talks over the winter and we’ve seen why so far this season. Even with a tiny little recent slump, Andujar is still hitting .290/.317/.519 (125 wRC+) with an 18.1% strikeout rate. A .229 ISO and an 18.1% strikeout rate is one hell of a combination for a rookie. We’ve also seen Andujar hit all types of pitching already.

That said, should Andujar be off-limits? You could argue his trade value is higher right now than ever before because he’s had some big league success and is still so young with so much team control. Andujar’s probably never going to walk much and his defense, which is serviceable, might never be better than, well, serviceable. I’m not saying the Yankees should give Andujar away. I love the kid. I’m just saying he’s not as untouchable as Torres.

The Top Chips

Brandon Drury’s presence is the reason Andujar should not be untouchable. The Yankees have an MLB ready third baseman — their Opening Day third baseman, in fact — stashed in Triple-A. Drury is only 25 himself and, with another two weeks or so in the minors, his free agency will be pushed back one year. He’s hitting .360/.470/.529 (187 wRC+) with the RailRiders, and while that’s great, I’d expect a dude with two-plus years as an everyday big leaguer to wreck Triple-A pitching. That’s what Drury is doing.

Ostensibly, Drury does not have as much trade value as Andujar because he’s a little older and doesn’t come with as much team control. He is very clearly a trade chip though. The Yankees can’t keep him in Triple-A much longer. I mean, they could, but at some point there are diminishing returns. I’m not sure Drury is learning much or developing new skills right now. We are fast approaching the point where the Yankees either have to trade him or call him up before he starts to stagnate.

Among the guys we know the Yankees are willing to deal, Clint Frazier is the best trade chip. He’s 23, he’s been destroying Triple-A, he’s had some MLB success, and he’s not far removed from being a top prospect. The Yankees have a full outfield. As much as I would love the Yankees to get Frazier into the lineup on an everyday basis next year, they would be crazy to make him untouchable at the deadline. They reportedly offered him to the Pirates in a potential Gerrit Cole deal and he’s playing center field in Triple-A in what amounts to showcase. He’s available.

Justus Sheffield is, by no small margin, the top pitching prospect in the farm system. He was said to be on the team’s list of untouchables over the winter, though pitchers break and have such a high attrition rate — Sheffield has some command issues himself — that it would be silly to make him off-limits. If the Yankees have a chance to add a quality young pitcher like, say, Blake Snell, of course you trade Sheffield. We’re all hoping Sheffield one day turns into Snell! So trade him for the real Snell. The Yankees won’t deal Sheffield for a rental. But a young guy with years of team control? All bets are off.

The Second Tier

A few months ago Estevan Florial would’ve been among the top chips. Right now he’s coming back from wrist surgery — a fairly common wrist surgery, but still wrist surgery — and his swing-and-miss issues still exist. Because of that, I think he’s more of a second tier trade chip right. I don’t think Florial can headline a package for an impact pitcher at the moment. I also don’t think the Yankees will move him while his stock is down, unless it’s a deal they can’t refuse.

Many of the second tier guys are MLB ready or near MLB ready depth pieces. Tyler Wade. Billy McKinney. Chance Adams. None of them can headline a package for an impact player right now, but a deal for a lesser player? Or as the second or third piece in a larger trade? For sure. Wade is a legitimate shortstop and middle infielder with speed and those guys are hard to find. McKinney has a sweet swing and some power. I’m sure some teams still buy Adams as a starter. Good depth players who the Yankees can’t fit on the roster. Of course they’re available.

Among their tippy top prospects, I get the sense the Yankees are more willing to deal Albert Abreu than anyone. He’s had some injuries — this year’s appendectomy is nothing, but last year he had elbow and lat problems — and while the stuff is excellent, the command is far from it. Between the injuries, the lack of command, and the distance to the big leagues (he’s in High-A), Abreu strikes me as a top 100 caliber prospect the Yankees would be very open to moving. He has a long way to go to be the pitcher he has the potential to be and the Yankees are in win-now mode.

The Impending Rule 5 Draft Guys

When you have a great farm system, you’re going to lose players in the Rule 5 Draft. There aren’t enough roster spots to go around and the system is designed to give blocked players an opportunity. The Yankees lost eight total players in the last two Rule 5 Drafts (four each year), six more than any other team. Seven of those eight players came back — Luis Torres is the only exception — but still. You don’t want to risk losing players for nothing.

As a result, the Yankees have been active trading fringe 40-man roster players in recent years. That way they get something in return rather than potentially nothing. Zack Littell went to the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, and Ian Clarkin and Tito Polo went to the White Sox in the big Todd Frazier trade. They were traded weeks before they had to be added to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. Here are this offseason’s notable Rule 5 Draft eligibles:

Catchers: None
Infielders: Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park
Outfielders: Florial (I think)
Pitchers: Abreu, Adams, Sheffield, Cody Carroll, Juan De Paula, Freicer Perez (I think), Josh Rogers, Dillon Tate

Two names immediately jump out as potential “trade them before you have to add them to the 40-man roster” candidates: Rogers and Tate. Rogers is the left-handed Littell to me. Great minor league performance to date, good pitchability, not blow-you-away stuff. I don’t think it’s crazy to worry his lack of grounders (39.9% in Triple-A) and lack of swings and misses (9.0%) won’t translate well to Yankee Stadium, even as a lefty.

As for Tate, he was the fourth overall pick in the draft three years ago and he’s been very good this season, throwing 66.2 innings with a 3.11 ERA (3.38 FIP) at Double-A. You’d like to see more strikeouts (22.9%) from a dude with his stuff, but the walk (5.9%) and ground ball (50.8%) numbers are good. I wonder if this is a situation where his trade value exceeds his real life value. There’s a decent chance Tate is a reliever long-term. A good one, but still a reliever. Another club might view him as a no-doubt starter and fall in love with the whole “former No. 4 pick” thing.

Regardless of what the Yankees do with Rogers and Tate — right now I’d bet on Tate being added to the 40-man roster and Rogers not, assuming they aren’t traded — there is going to be some roster shuffling in the coming weeks. A few of these Rule 5 Draft eligibles could be moved prior to the trade deadline or soon after the season. Aside from Sheffield, there’s no stud here that will net you an impact big league player. These guys are for depth moves or to fill out a larger package.

The Lower Level Guys

Moreso than ever before, teams are taking very low level minor leaguers in trades. And I don’t mean low level as in not highly regarded. I mean the low levels of the minors. One of the prospects in the Kelvin Herrera trade was a 17-year-old in rookie ball. The second piece in last year’s Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade was an 18-year-old in Single-A. The Yankees traded 20-year-old Blake Rutherford last year.

Teams are trying to acquire these talented young players before they break out into top prospects — the Yankees themselves have done this with the Nick Rumbelow trade (18-year-old Juan Then) and the Jake Cave trade (20-year-old Luis Gil) — and the Yankees have some of these players to offer, I think. Then is one. So is Saul Torres, Alex Vargas, Roansy Contreras, and Pablo Olivares. Guys like that are involved in trades more than ever before.

Could Luis Medina, Everson Pereira, or Ezequiel Duran be trade chips? They’re all teenagers and they’re all on the cusp of becoming excellent prospects, but of course they’re trade chips. The Yankees are a bona fide World Series contender. They’d be nuts to let a teenager in rookie stand in the way of a win-now trade. I’m not saying they should give those guys away! But they have value and they’re in demand, and they’re so far away from the big leaguers that they can’t be untouchable.

* * *

Trading players off your big league roster is not usually something a contending team does, but it is definitely possible. Neil Walker could go in a deal to offset salary a la Tyler Clippard last year, for example. I’d be surprised if the Yankees traded a reliever. I’d be even more surprised if they traded Sonny Gray, even in a deal for another starter. To me, the master plan is add a starter and get Gray on track, not replace Gray.

Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga are on the big league roster right now — they’re not just on the roster, they’re making starts every fifth day — and they’re trade chips for sure. German has shown promising swing-and-miss ability and everyone loves Johnny Lasagna, but they both have scary injury histories, and if they can help the Yankees get a potential difference-maker, of course they’ll trade ’em.

All of that is the long way of saying the Yankees have trade chips in all shapes and sizes. Once upon a time they were dealing from a pool of, like, three desirable prospects. Now they have pitchers, position players, MLB ready guys, far away guys, you name it. The Yankees can meet pretty much any asking price. That doesn’t mean they will. If the Yankees lose a bidding war this year, it’ll be because they don’t want to give up the pieces, not because they don’t have the pieces.

The Yankees need a starter at the trade deadline, but adding a reliever wouldn’t be a bad idea either

June 19, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Chapman after hearing he might finally get a day off. (Presswire)

After a rocky first few weeks to begin the season, the bullpen has settled in these last two months and become a strength for the Yankees. Aroldis Chapman has been nails in the ninth inning and the Dellin Betances/Chad Green setup duo has been great as well. David Robertson has bounced back from his little hiccup last month and Jonathan Holder has emerged as a reliable middle reliever.

Aside from eighth reliever A.J. Cole soaking up a precious roster spot and never ever pitching — he last pitched on May 28th, if you can believe that — things are going well for the bullpen right now. And the Yankees are going to need the bullpen to continue pitching well because the starting rotation, despite their recent excellent work, is not a strength. Sonny Gray has been inconsistent at best and Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga are rookies.

Starting pitching will be the focus prior to the trade deadline and rightfully so. Jordan Montgomery is not coming back, and unless Gray turns back into the Oakland A’s version of Sonny Gray very soon, he’s tough to count on for a quality performance every fifth day. As good as the rotation has been lately — the starters have a 2.72 ERA (3.38 FIP) in June — the Yankees have a clear need for another starting pitcher in my opinion.

Do the Yankees need another reliever as well? Well, no, the Yankees don’t need another reliever. But is the bullpen something that can be improved at the trade deadline? Of course it can. Bullpens are more important now than ever before, and come postseason time — assuming the Yankees get there, of course — when every inning is a high-leverage inning, the more quality relievers, the better. Some thoughts on a potential reliever addition.

1. The Yankees need lighten the load. Because the Yankees have played (and won) so many close games lately — the pitching has been great this month, the offense hasn’t — the regular late inning relievers have pitched an awful lot these last few weeks. Chapman was pitching for the eighth time in the last 16 days last night and he looked visibly fatigued to me. Some numbers:

Betances: On pace for 70 appearances
Chapman: On pace for 75 appearances (career high is 68 in 2012 and 2013)
Green: On pace for 66 appearances
Robertson: On pace for 77 appearances (career high is 70 in 2011 and 2013)

On one hand, the Yankees do not have a single reliever in the top 25 in relief appearances this season. On the other, they have three dudes on pace for 70+ appearances, and that’s a lot.

I’ve been a baseball fan long enough to know reliever usage is volatile. Chapman pitched for the eighth time in 16 days last night, and before you know it, Aaron Boone will be looking to get him into a game this weekend because he needs work. There are always those long stretches of inactivity. Even still, adding another top notch bullpen arm to lighten the load on everyone else wouldn’t be a bad idea.

2. Should the Yankees add a lefty? Not counting Chapman, who is married to the ninth inning and save situations, the only left-hander in the bullpen right now is Chasen Shreve. He is pitching like Chasen Shreve always seems to pitch: 4.56 ERA (5.33 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (29.9%), more walks than you’d like (11.2%), and lots of dingers (2.3 HR/9). And, once again, he has a reverse split:

Shreve vs. RHB, 2018: .246/.310/.477 (.338 wOBA)
Shreve vs. LHB, 2018: .207/.361/.552 (.386 wOBA)

Shreve vs. RHB, career: .215/.310/.433 (.319 wOBA)
Shreve vs. LHB, career: .230/.330/.421 (.325 wOBA)

Shreve has reverse split and yet we’ve seen Boone use him in left-on-left matchup situations several times, most notably last week against the Nationals, when Boone let Shreve throw a second inning because several lefties were due up. Juan Soto, a left-handed hitter, hit what proved to be the game-winning homer. Sigh.

Now, just because the Yankees only have one non-Chapman southpaw in the bullpen, it does not necessarily mean they should added a lefty reliever. Their righties are very effective against lefty batters, specifically Betances, Green, and Robertson. In a high-leverage spot with, say, Andrew Benintendi at the plate, I want one of those guys on the mound rather than a lefty who is out there just for the sake of the left-on-left matchup.

Would adding a left-handed reliever be worthwhile? Sure. It’s good to have variety in the bullpen and there are times when getting that left-on-left matchup makes sense. If the Yankees get another reliever, it doesn’t have to be a lefty because the righties are so good at getting out lefties. It wouldn’t hurt to add a southpaw though.

3. A rental would be a-okay with me. Years of control is a big obsession in baseball these days. Teams don’t just want to add good players, they want good players they can keep around for several years. And that’s great! Makes perfect sense, no? It generally costs more to acquire those players, but that’s okay. You get them longer. One of the reasons the Yankees traded for Sonny Gray was his two and a half years of control.

If the Yankees add a reliever, I don’t think targeting someone with control beyond 2018 is imperative. It’d be nice, but it’s not necessary. The goal — and this applies to any trade for this Yankees team, really — is putting the 2018 team in the best position to win the World Series. If you can get someone under control long-term, great. But give me the best player for the 2018 Yankees, first and foremost. Rentals are generally cheaper and there’s no long-term risk. They’re underappreciated in today’s game, I think.

4. Are internal options better? The Yankees do have Tommy Kahnle and Cody Carroll stashed with Triple-A Scranton, remember. Justus Sheffield could be a bullpen option too. Ditto German or Loaisiga once Masahiro Tanaka returns from his duel hamstring injuries. So I guess the question becomes this: Is it worth using prospect and luxury tax payroll capital to get a reliever when you have those guys already in the organization?

For me, the answer is yes. Depends on who the Yankees would be acquiring, of course, but the answer is yes. As long as Shreve and the seldom used Cole are on the MLB roster, and Kahnle’s throwing 95-96 mph rather than 98-99 mph, and Carroll and Sheffield have zero big league time, the answer is yes. Acquire a reliever and he’s an upgrade over someone. The Yankees would be making their organization stronger. They have internal bullpen options. There’s also nothing wrong with adding to a strength.

5. Who are some potential bullpen targets? Kelvin Herrera came off the market yesterday when he was traded to the Nationals in the middle of last night’s game. Brad Hand is the top guy on the market now. He is under control through 2021 and excellent. Zach Britton and Brad Brach are both rentals who may not be viable options for the Yankees given the whole intradivision thing. Jeurys Familia is another rental and guys like Blake Treinen and Raisel Iglesias figure to be out there. They’ve been great.

Hand is my preferred target because he’s great and is under control for another few years, though that means the price will be crazy high. The Padres wouldn’t be wrong to ask for an Andrew Miller-esque return and I don’t really want the Yankees to pay that. My alternative target: Adam Ottavino. He’s a rental, he’s a local dude (born in Manhattan and raised in Brooklyn), and he’s very good. This season he has a 0.89 ERA (1.74 FIP) with 48 strikeouts in 30.1 innings around an oblique injury. His slider:

Ottavino was terrible last season and, as Travis Sawchik explained, he basically rebuilt himself in a vacated storefront in Harlem over the winter. Pretty neat story. Ottavino has been excellent this year — he’s had very good seasons in the past too, so he’s not necessarily a one-year wonder — and the Rockies are fading out of the postseason race. Would they make Ottavino available at the deadline? Trade for him and he might jump at an extension to stay close to home too.

* * *

“This team has earned the right to get reinforced here if we can possibly find a way. But we certainly like the team we’ve got and would certainly love to make it better, if possible,” said Brian Cashman in perfect GM speak to Dan Martin over the weekend. Does the bullpen need to be fixed? Nah. Can it be improved? Of course. There’s always room for improvement. The Yankees lean on the bullpen heavily and anything they can do to strengthen it is worth exploring.

As far as I’m concerned, getting another starting pitcher is the top trade deadline priority. As good as the starters have been lately, I’m not especially comfortable with the rotation as is given CC Sabathia’s knee, Tanaka’s hamstrings and elbow, German’s and Loaisiga’s greenness, and Sonny’s Grayness. The rotation needs to be solidified. The bullpen can improved too, and it’s not an either/or situation. They can work to improve both at the same time. Another reliever isn’t absolutely necessary. It is something worth considering though.

The Yankees are reportedly interested in J.A. Happ, the best rental starter on the trade market

June 19, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is exactly six weeks away and, now that the draft is over, the first wave of trade rumors are starting to roll in. It is no secret the Yankees are looking for rotation help, and, according to Jon Morosi, they have interest in Blue Jays southpaw J.A. Happ. Morosi says the Mariners have interest too. I’m guessing many other teams do as well.

Happ is having a rock solid season for the Blue Jays, pitching to a 3.48 ERA (3.42 FIP) with a career best strikeout rate (28.1%) and walk (7.5%) and ground ball (46.4%) rates better than his career averages (8.7% and 40.5%). He’s a rental — Happ is making $13M this year — and the Blue Jays stink, so either they’re going to trade him or they’re going to sign him to an extension. Hard to see them keeping him only to risk losing him for nothing (I guess a draft pick) as a free agent.

Trading with the Blue Jays might not be easy because of the whole AL East rivalry thing — the Yankees and Blue Jays did hook up for the Rob Refsnyder trade last year, though their last meaningful deal was the Raul Mondesi trade in 2002 — but it shouldn’t be impossible. If you’re the Blue Jays and you’re out of the race, why wouldn’t you trade a rental to a division rival? Happ’s not going to hurt Toronto this year and they’d get some sweet Yankees prospects to boot. Three things about a potential Happ trade.

1. He’s familiar with the AL East and that’s not nothing. The AL East is not an easy place to pitch and that is especially true when you call Yankee Stadium home. Happ has been in the division for several years now and he’s pitched very well, and he was part of the 2016 Blue Jays team that went to the ALCS. He’s pitched in big games at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park. It won’t be new to him. You never really know how a player will adjust to a new environment after being traded and that is especially true with pitchers coming to the AL East. Happ has been there, done that. He knows the ropes. In theory, the transition should be seamless.

2. It could be an audition for next year as well. Happ is a rental, so if you trade for him, you’re making the trade to improve your 2018 chances. That’s all. Those however many weeks he spends in your uniform after the trade do effectively serve as an audition for next season though. If he performs well and fits into your clubhouse nicely and enjoys his time with the team, re-signing him as a free agent is absolutely an option.

Remember, Jordan Montgomery is not coming back next season. At least not until later in the season. Also, CC Sabathia may retire. Depending on their trade deadline activity, the Yankees could very well need a starting pitcher this offseason, and if they trade for Happ and he pitches well, why wouldn’t they look to re-sign him? He’s good and it’d be preferable to bringing in someone you have no background with, you know?

This works both ways as well. Remember when the Yankees acquired Chase Headley? He said he came to New York not expecting to like it, then he fell in love with the place and took less money to re-sign with the team when he became a free agent. Maybe the Yankees trade for Happ and he falls in love with the organization. Or maybe he hates it and won’t consider re-signing with them. That’s good to know too!

Trade for Happ and you’re trading for him to help you win the 2018 World Series. That’s it. That’s the goal. The fringe benefit is getting to know him firsthand — the only Yankee who has been teammates with Happ previously is Neil Walker, and that was only for two months in 2015, so Brian Cashman can’t glean much information about Happ the person from his roster — which is useful information come free agency. Happ helps you win this year and you get a chance to determine whether he can help you win in the future.

3. What’s it going to cost? The million dollar question. Happ is very good and very affordable — trade for him on the July 31st deadline and his luxury tax hit would be about $4.4M, which fits comfortably into the luxury tax plan — and several teams figure to be after him (Mariners, Dodgers, Nationals, Braves, Brewers, etc.), so the team that gets him will have to win the bidding war.

The Yankees, fortunately, have the prospects to win any bidding war. That doesn’t necessarily mean they should pay whatever it takes to get Happ. It just means they’re not at a prospect disadvantage here. They can get pretty much anyone they want. Here are some recent rental starter trades that may serve as a Happ trade benchmark:

Jaime Garcia: Traded for an organizational top 30 prospect (Zack Littell) and a depth arm (Dietrich Enns).
Yu Darvish: Traded for a top 50-ish prospect (Willie Calhoun) and two organizational top 30 prospects (Brendon Davis and A.J. Alexy).
Andrew Cashner: Traded for an organizational to ten prospect (Josh Naylor) and two broken MLB arms (Carter Capps and Jarred Cosart).
Mike Leake: Traded for an organizational top ten prospect (Keury Mella) and a young MLB ready player (Adam Duvall).

Do any of those seem like a reasonable trade benchmark for Happ? The best match is Darvish, right? And you know what, Happ is pitching much better right now than Darvish was the time of his trade, and he didn’t come with any of the injury red flags either. Darvish was less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery at the time of the trade. Happ has made at least 25 starts in four of the last five years, and the one time he didn’t, it was because he got hit in the head by a line drive.

My trade proposal sucks, but I wonder whether the Yankees could build a package around Albert Abreu (a top 100 prospect) and supplement it with a big league ready player the Yankees have no room for like Tyler Wade, Billy McKinney, or Josh Rogers. Something like Abreu, Wade (the Blue Jays desperately need an actual shortstop), and third lower level piece for Happ. Blue Jays fans will say it’s not enough, Yankees fans will say it’s too much. So it goes.

My preference is a younger pitcher with long-term control because the Yankees have a young team and it would be cool to address this year’s pitching needs and future pitching needs with one move. Absent that, I think Happ is the best rental on the market, even better than Cole Hamels given Hamels’ home run issues. Happ’s recent success is not a fluke. He’s elevating his fastball more than ever and pitching inside more effectively. We’ll see how the bidding war plays out. As far as I’m concerned, Happ is a very good and very obvious fit for the Yankees.

Scouting the Trade Market: Under-the-Radar Pitching Targets

June 13, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

At some point between now and the July 31st trade deadline, the Yankees are going to trade for a starting pitcher. It is not 100% set in stone, of course, just extremely likely. Jordan Montgomery is done for the season and Masahiro Tanaka will be out several weeks, plus enough physical concerns exit with Tanaka and CC Sabathia that adding depth to get through the 162-game season makes sense.

The trade deadline is less than seven weeks away now, and while many players will become available between now and then, we already have an idea who the top trade candidates will be. Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Tyson Ross, maybe Michael Fulmer, maybe Chris Archer. There’s a case to be made for acquiring each of those guys and a case to be made for staying away. They’re all should be available though.

We’ve been talking about those guys so much that I’m sick of hearing about them. I’m more interested in potential surprise trade candidates. The guys who become available that no one really had on their radar. The Tommy Kahnle pickup, though part of a larger trade, kinda came out of nowhere. Trying to come up with surprise trade candidates is never easy, though after some digging around, I think I’ve identified three possibilities. Let’s get to ’em.

The Project Pitcher: RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pirates

Background: The soon-to-be 25-year-old Glasnow is a former top prospect who spent several years in the top 25 of Baseball America’s annual top 100 list. Walks have always been an issue though, and in spot start duty from 2016-17, he had a 6.75 ERA (5.74 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 13.4% walks in 85.1 innings. This season Glasnow has a 4.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts, 11.8% walks, and 51.1% grounders in 35 innings, all in long relief.

Breakdown: Glasnow is a Yankees-sized pitcher (6-foot-8 and 220 lbs.) and he has simplified things out of the bullpen this year, relying mostly on his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and hard 80-ish mph curveball. During his days as a starter he also threw an upper-80s changeup and tinkered with a slider. Glasnow has shown much better than league average spin rates with his fastball (2,419 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm) and curveball (2,825 rpm vs. 2,507 pm). That is an elite curveball spin rate on par with Justin Verlander’s (2,837 rpm) and Charlie Morton’s (2,931 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The raw stuff is excellent — that’s why Glasnow was a top prospect for such a long time — and we’re talking about a 24-year-old kid under team control through 2023. The Yankees love physically huge power pitchers and Glasnow fits that profile perfectly. He misses bats, he gets grounders, and an argument can be made you’d be buying low on him right now. Would the Pirates trade him? Who knows. They haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park with their decision-making lately.

Reasons To Stay Away: Glasnow’s mechanics and lack of control are real problems. There’s some Dellin Betances in him. He’s big, his delivery can fall out of whack, and finding the strike zone isn’t always easy. Even during his prospect days, there was some thought Glasnow would fit best in the bullpen, where he could work in shorter stints and not have to worry about repeating his delivery 100 times a game. Those are really the only reasons to stay away. The stuff is good and he’s been healthy throughout his career. The mechanics and control make Glasnow a project, potentially a difficult one.

The Post-Hype Pitcher: RHP Jeff Hoffman, Rockies

Background: The Blue Jays drafted Hoffman, a semi-local kid from Albany, with the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft even though he had Tommy John surgery a few weeks earlier. They shipped him to the Rockies as the headliner in the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015. Hoffman, 25, has been an up-and-down spot starter the last few years, pitching to a 5.65 ERA (5.15 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 9.7% walks in 130.2 innings. There is of course some Coors Field stink in there — Hoffman has a career 6.97 ERA (5.41 FIP) at home and 4.04 ERA (4.76 FIP) on the road.

Breakdown: Hoffman was not the ninth overall pick despite Tommy John surgery by accident. He’s a power pitcher with a deep arsenal. His fastball sits mid-90s, his slider and changeup are mid-80s offerings, and he has an upper-70s curveball as well. If you’re into such things, the scouting report at FanGraphs says the fastball, slider, and curveball all have above-average potential with the changeup being a potential average fourth pitch. Last season, during his only extended big league stint, Hoffman showed above-average spin rates with his fastball (2,385 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm), his curveball (2,687 rpm vs. 2,507 rpm), and his slider (2,706 rpm vs. 2,398 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The Rockies have more quality young pitching right now than they’ve ever had at any point in franchise history. Hoffman has been struck in Triple-A most of the season — he was recently called up for long relief duty — and, to me, he’s a great post-hype target. By that I mean a talented young player who was once a top prospect, but has since kinda faded out of the spotlight. Think the pitcher version of Didi Gregorius or Aaron Hicks.

Hoffman clearly has a lot going for him given his two quality breaking balls and high-octane heater. He hasn’t had much time in the big leagues, but he strikes me as someone who could really benefit from the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Look at Hoffman’s pitch selection during his 2016-17 MLB stints:

The curveball and slider (and, to a lesser degree, the changeup) are good pitches. Throw them! I know Hoffman throws hard, but approaching 70% fastballs from 2016-17? Seems a little high given his secondary pitches. Maybe that’s a Coors Field thing. The breaking balls didn’t behave properly in the thin mountain air and Hoffman leaned on his fastball. Either way, a 25-year-old with a good four-pitch mix who is under team control through 2023 seems like an obvious trade target to me, assuming the Rockies are actually open to dealing him.

Reasons To Stay Away: The Tommy John surgery, for one. There’s an injury history here. The larger flaw is that, even at his best, Hoffman didn’t miss as many bats as the stuff would lead you to believe. Despite a career 27.6% strikeout rate in the minors, his swing-and-miss rate has been consistently in the 9% to 10% range, which is well-below-average for a top pitching prospect. Trading for Hoffman would mean banking on a return to sea level and the anti-fastball lifestyle getting him to miss more bats and maybe get more ground balls too (career 43.8% grounders).

The Established Rental: RHP Garrett Richards, Angels

Background: At this point Richards is a known commodity. He broke out in 2014, battled injuries from 2016-17, and so far this season he has a 3.26 ERA (3.87 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts, 11.4% walks, and 50.6% grounders in 66.1 innings. The Yankees have hammered Richards twice this year, scoring 12 runs (eight earned) in four innings in two starts. Against non-Yankees teams, the 30-year-old right-hander has a 2.31 ERA (3.64 FIP) in 62.1 innings this season.

Breakdown: Richards truly has top 1% stuff, I believe. He’s upper-90s with his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, right around 90 mph with his slider, and low-80s with his hammer curveball. Among the 101 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 pitches so far this season, Richards has the highest four-seamer spin rate (2,607 rpm), the highest two-seamer spin rate (2,549 rpm), the highest slider spin rate (2,906 rpm), and the highest curveball spin rate (3,245 rpm). Spin rate is not everything. It’s like velocity. It’s one tool in the shed. But holy crap, no pitcher in baseball combines velocity and spin like Richards.

Reasons To Trade For Him: This seems obvious enough, right? Richards has shown he’s a very good big league pitcher with high-end stuff that produces strikeouts and grounders. He’s a free agent after the season, so this is a rental situation. For Richards to actually become available, the Angels will probably have to fall out of the race before the deadline, which simply might not happen, even with Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons on the disabled list. The Halos are currently 6.5 games back in the AL West and six games back of the second wildcard spot. To me, they look good enough to hang around the race all season. If they don’t though, Richards may suddenly become a very in-demand trade candidate.

Reasons To Stay Away: The lack of success at Yankee Stadium (19 runs in 23 career innings) doesn’t scare me too much because Richards wouldn’t be facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium anymore. The larger issue here is his injury history, which is ugly. Richards tore the patella tendon in his left knee covering first base in 2014, he tore his elbow ligament in 2016 and managed to avoid Tommy John surgery by rehabbing the ligament with an experimental stem cell procedure, and last season he missed most of the year with a biceps strain. Trade for Richards and you run the risk of him getting hurt and not contributing at all. And maybe that’s a risk worth taking. It’s not like there’s a long-term commitment here. Aside from the injuries, everything else looks pretty good. Richards can bring it.

* * *

The Yankees should — and will — consider both short and long-term rotation additions at the deadline. If there’s a rental who could help put them over the top this season, great. If there’s someone available will multiple years of control who can help them win now and later, even better. Montgomery will miss most of next season and Sabathia might not be back. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, right? The Yankees have space for rentals like Richards and long-term guys like Glasnow and Hoffman.

There are some obvious issues with the three guys in this post. One, Richards might not ever actually become available. And two, are Glasnow and Hoffman guys who could help you win right now? Are they starting postseason games this year? Maybe they could. To me, they seem like future pieces the Yankees would acquire this season, tinker with the rest of the way, then really turn loose next season. They’d join the Justus Sheffield/Jonathan Loaisiga talent pool rather than the Luis Severino/Sonny Gray/Sabathia/Tanaka group.

Coming up with under-the-radar trade candidates ain’t easy. Glasnow, Hoffman, and Richards jumped out at me because the stuff is excellent and, in the case of Glasnow and Hoffman, they fit the “buy low on a talented player who is kinda sorta falling out of favor with his current team” mold the Yankees used to get Gregorius and Hicks (and Nathan Eovaldi). I have no doubt surprise trade candidates will begin to surface. Maybe these dudes will be among them. Either way, the Yankees are going to look high and low for another starter before July 31st.

Saturday Links: Trade Deadline, Mets, Seigler, Ellsbury

June 9, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

You can still play on my team any day, Jake. (Presswire)

The Yankees and Mets continue their three-game series with the middle game later tonight. It’s a 7pm ET contest. Until then, here are some links and notes to check out.

Mets may or may not consider fire sale

Depending who you ask, the Mets either will (Kristie Ackert) or will not (Bob Nightengale) consider trading Jacob deGrom and/or Noah Syndergaard if they don’t climb back into the postseason race. “Can circumstances change that? Yes. But I think that would be very, very remote. It’s not something we’re even considering or talking about,” said GM Sandy Alderson with regards to a potential fire sale.

The Yankees could use another starter in the wake of Jordan Montgomery’s Tommy John surgery, and gosh, either deGrom or Syndergaard sure would be a wonderful fit. Both this year and going forward. The thing is, even if the Mets do become open to trading them, the Yankees-Mets hurdle has to be cleared. Trade talks about Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce were reportedly contentious last August. Imagine talks about deGrom or Syndergaard?

I think Alderson and Brian Cashman would be willing to do a deal with each other. They’re two veteran executives who’ve won and lost their share of trades. They have the stomachs for it. Would ownership do it, specifically the Wilpons? Watching deGrom or Syndergaard potentially carry the Yankees to glory might not sit easy with them.

Seigler will catch, not pitch

Not surprisingly, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer confirmed to Brendan Kuty that the Yankees will use 2018 first round pick Anthony Seigler as a catcher in pro ball, not as a pitcher. Seigler is a switch-hitter with good all-around skills behind the plate. He’s also a switch-thrower who pitched with both arms in high school. From Kuty:

“Not at this point (do we see him pitching),” Oppenheimer said. “At this point, we’re seeing him as a switch-hitting catcher. The versatility he has and he’s shown throughout his high school career is something that’s attractive to us but the development as a catcher is the key here and that’s what we’re working on.”

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Seigler “throws a changeup from the left side and changes his arm slot, while he can reach 92 mph from the right side to go along with a slider.” With Shohei Ohtani (and Brendan McKay in the minors) doing the two-way thing, I guess the Yankees could’ve considered it with Seigler, but nah. Catching is hard enough as it is. Imagine pitching as well?

As far as I know Seigler has never been considered a serious pro prospect on the mound. It’s always been catcher all the way. I guess Ohtani and the switch-pitching thing generated some buzz and led to the question being asked. No surprise the Yankees are sticking with Seigler behind the plate though. That’s where he’s best.

Yankees have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract

Jacoby Ellsbury has yet to play a game this season and, based on the way things are going, it seems unlikely he will play a game anytime soon. He’s dealing with oblique, hip, and back problems in addition to plantar fasciitis. According to Wally Matthews, the Yankees do have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract, and it will reimburse them 75% of his salary while he is on the disabled list. From Matthews:

A Yankees source told me the club has a similar policy (to David Wright’s) on Ellsbury, which has already begun to defray the bulk of his salary for the first two months of 2018. In an ideal world, Ellsbury would sit out the remainder of the season, the Yankees would muddle through with a rotation of Gardner, Hicks and Frazier in centerfield – and be reimbursed to the tune of $15,857,142.86.

It’s important to note the insurance does not change anything with regards to the luxury tax. Ellsbury still counts as $21.85M against the luxury tax. Nothing changes there. The insurance policy just means the Yankees get some cold hard cash back for Ellsbury’s injuries. I’m not a conspiracy theorist. I don’t think Ellsbury and the Yankees have a secret agreement to stay on the disabled list — that’s insurance fraud! — but the insurance sure is convenient, isn’t it?

It won’t be easy, but the sooner the Yankees can trade for pitching, the better

June 7, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

I love this stupid picture for some reason. (Presswire)

The 2018 amateur draft is finally complete. The Yankees selected 40 players these last three days and they’ll probably end up signing 20-something. Maybe 30-something. Whatever the number, the draft is over, and now front offices will move on to bigger and better things. That means the July 31st trade deadline. It’s less than eight weeks away and soon clubs will get serious about making moves.

The Mariners currently sit in first place in the AL West and they decided to strike early, trading for Denard Span and Alex Colome two weeks ago. They needed outfield and bullpen help, the Rays were a ready and willing trade partner, so a deal was struck. Seattle is trying to end the longest active postseason drought not only in baseball, but all North American sports. GM Jerry Dipoto acted quickly and decisively, and his team is better for it.

Other clubs are not as desperate as the Mariners and seem content to wait for the trade market to fully develop. That includes both buyers and sellers. The Yankees, despite getting good work from their starters the last few days, have an obvious need in the rotation in the wake of Jordan Montgomery’s Tommy John surgery. Another starter feels imperative. Another reliever could help too. A starter though, that’s the top priority.

In my perfect world, the Yankees would follow the Mariners’ path (ewww) and make a trade soon rather than waiting until July 31st. Get the help you need now and have that help on the roster for an extra few weeks. Consider the current standings projections:

FanGraphs
Yankees: 100-62 (.619)
Red Sox: 101-61 (.623)

Baseball Prospectus
Yankees: 101-62 (.619)
Red Sox: 98-64 (.605)

The Red Sox are very good. So are the Yankees! But the Red Sox are very good and you didn’t need to see the projected standings to know the AL East race will be neck-and-neck all year. The division race may very well come down to Games 160, 161, and 162 between the Yankees and Red Sox at Fenway Park. MLB and the television networks would love it. This would be all of us watching the games:

Point is, I am pro making a trade as soon as possible, because the longer the Yankees have that rotation update on the roster, the better their chances of winning the AL East. As fun as last year was, I can’t say I’m eager to sit throughout another Wild Card Game. The AL East runner-up might win 100+ games and play a do-or-die Wild Card Game. I don’t want the Yankees to be that team.

The problem, of course, is finding a willing trade partner this far in advance of the trade deadline. The Mariners and Rays matched up well. Tampa’s ready to move anyone at any time, plus Dipoto and Rays GM Erik Neander have made several trades in recent years, so they have a strong working relationship. The Yankees and Rays are division rivals and it’s difficult to see them matching up for a trade.

Would any clear non-contenders be willing to make a deal so far in advance of the deadline? I’m certain the answer is yes, as long as the trade makes sense for them. The Padres, for example, could be eager to move Tyson Ross because he’s pitching well (3.31 ERA and 3.44 FIP), he’s on a one-year contract, and he has an ugly injury history. The longer they wait, the more injury risk they assume. Would the Tigers sell low on Michael Fulmer right now? Probably not.

There are still 100-something games to go, but it sure looks like the AL East race will be crazy tight all season. Every win the Yankees (or Red Sox) can add the roster is incredibly valuable. It could sway the division ace, truly. As such, the sooner the Yankees can address their weakness(es), the better their chances to take control of AL East. Making a deal weeks before the deadline isn’t easy. But the sooner the Yankees can add help, the better their chances of avoiding that Wild Card Game.

The Yankees may have to work out a deal with a rival when the time comes to trade for a starter

May 29, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

At some point in the next two months the Yankees will trade for a starting pitcher. Who exactly? I’m not sure. I am confident it’ll happen though. Sonny Gray is still lost and no one really knows what to expect from post-elbow injury Jordan Montgomery. Even if Montgomery comes back and is great, the Yankees could still use another starter.

The big name trade target right now is Cole Hamels, mostly because he is an impending free agent on a terrible team, but also because people are sick of talking about Michael Fulmer and Chris Archer. The Yankees saw Hamels last week and he pitched well against them, and nothing gets fans’ attention quite like pitching well against the Yankees.

Other pitchers, including some surprise names, will jump into the trade conversation in the coming weeks. It’s inevitable. Happens every year. Good pitchers on bad teams is always the best place to start when trying to predict trade possibilities, and two immediately jump to mind:

J.A Happ: 3.84 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 29.5 K% and 47.9 GB% in 65.2 innings
Jacob deGrom: 1.52 ERA (2.11 FIP) with 32.8 K% and 43.9 GB% in 65.1 innings

The Blue Jays are a very distant fourth in the AL East and they are competing with no fewer than six teams in the Wild Card race. Happ is an impending free agent, so unless the Blue Jays make a miraculous run at some point before the deadline, one of two things will likely happen: Either they sign Happ to an extension or they’ll trade him.

As for the Mets, they have crashed back to Earth hard since their 11-1 start. They split yesterday’s doubleheader with the Braves to drop to 26-25 on the season. There are three teams ahead of them in the NL East race and seven teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race. It’s not difficult to envision them slipping even further out of the race going forward.

The Mets trading deGrom is, obviously, a much greater long shot than the Blue Jays trading Happ. Happ’s an impending free agent and they might loose him for nothing after the season. deGrom is under team control through 2020. Keeping him would be a very defensible move. Heck, he might go down as a top four Mets pitcher all-time.

If Happ and especially deGrom become available at the trade deadline, it goes without saying the Yankees should get involved. Both represent rotation upgrades and are pitchers any team could comfortably start in a postseason game. That’s what the Yankees are looking for, right? Not someone to get them through the season. They want a true difference-maker.

There is one small problem with the Yankees trading for Happ and/or deGrom: They play for rival teams. The Blue Jays are a division rival and intradivision trades are always tough. There’s a reason they’re uncommon. As for deGrom, it has been a very long time since the Yankees and Mets made a significant trade. Imagine one of this caliber? Involving a true ace? Goodness.

Trading with a rival is not impossible, just complicated. The Yankees have the young talent to beat any trade offer. They’re not at a disadvantage there. It’s just a question of whether the Blue Jays or Mets will trade with the Yankees, and if so, what’ll it cost? Will the Yankees have to overpay to make it happen? It’s easy to say that, if the Yankees make the best offer, the Blue Jays or Mets should take it, but we know things aren’t that simple. PR hits matter.

In a perfect world the Mets will continue to fall out of the race and make deGrom available. He’s my ideal trade target. He’s excellent and under control another two years. Tell the Mets to take any four players not on the MLB roster and call it a deal. If that doesn’t work, Happ would be a fine consolation prize (at a much lower price).

The trade market will develop over the next few weeks and I am certain a few surprise names will be made available. It happens every year. Happ and deGrom stand out as potential trade targets given their teams’ situations, though both guys plays for rivals, so the Yankees could have a hard time swinging a trade. Enough of a hard time that they may have to look elsewhere.