Trade Deadline Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Trade Market: Fill-In Outfielders

August 14, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

For only the the fifth time in the last 12 games, Shane Robinson did not start for the Yankees last night. Robinson has played so much lately because Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier are on the disabled list, and because Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a hamstring injury. The Yankees are so short on outfielders at the moment that Neil Walker has started the last three games in right field.

There is still no firm timetable for Judge or Frazier to return from the disabled list, or for Stanton to resume playing the outfield. The Yankees tried to acquire another bat at the deadline but came up empty, though the need remains. Robinson’s playing too much and I’m not sure Walker in right field is viable long-term. The Yankees could use another outfielder, for sure.

Ideally, whoever the Yankees acquire will be comfortable slotting into a bench role once Judge returns. Being a bench player is not easy. We saw how much Walker struggled earlier this year when he was playing sparingly. As always, there are plenty of spare part bats on the August trade market, some of which are more attractive than others. Here are a few who could interest the Yankees while Judge and Frazier are sidelined.

John Andreoli, Mariners

2018 Batting Line: .279/.392/.390 (113 wRC+) with 19 steals in 21 attempts in Triple-A

Why Him? The players in this post are listed alphabetically, though I suppose it’s only right we start with the guy no one knows. Andreoli, 28, was a career minor leaguer with the Cubs before joining the Mariners as a minor league free agent. He has three games worth of MLB experience, all with Seattle this year, and over the last four years he’s posted a .370 OBP with lots of walks (13.8%) and lots of steals (121-for-156, 76%) in nearly 2,000 Triple-A plate appearances. There’s even a little pop in his bat.

Andreoli is a speed and defense outfielder who takes his walks, steals some bases, and will catch everything in all three outfield spots. Even with Judge and Gary Sanchez sidelined, the Yankees have some power to spare. A speedy outfielder who hits ninth and puts together long at-bats can fit the lineup well right now.

Why Not Him? I have no idea whether Andreoli is an upgrade over Robinson. He’s five years younger, I know that much, but Andreoli has no MLB track record. Robinson is another speed and defense outfielder, remember. They’re kinda the same player. You say tomato, I say tomahto. Trading for Andreoli might be at best a lateral move and potentially even a downgrade.

What Will It Cost? This can probably be a cash trade. The Yankees got fellow Quad-A types George Kontos and Gio Urshela in cash deals earlier this month.

Jose Bautista, Mets

2018 Batting Line: .195/.335/.368 (98 wRC+) with nine home runs

Why Him? If nothing else, Bautista will still draw walks (16.7%) and get on base at a respectable clip while running into the occasional fastball. His platoon split is relatively small (102 wRC+ vs. 94 wRC+), so he doesn’t necessarily need to be platooned, plus Bautista can also play first and third bases, if necessary. He’s done both this year. He knows the AL East and he’s not going to be scared away by a postseason race.

Why Not Him? Even with last night’s homer, Bautista stopped hitting a few weeks ago. He’s at .161/.282/.259 (59 wRC+) in 131 plate appearances since July 1st, and the whole “he can play the four corner positions” thing doesn’t help much given his overall below-average defensive play. Right now, the only thing you can count on 37-year-old Jose Bautista to do is draw walks. Does that make him an upgrade over Robinson? Maybe! Enough to make it worth the hassle? Eh.

What Will It Cost? Probably another cash trade. Cash or a very fringe prospect. I can’t imagine any team would pay much for a declining player who didn’t sign until mid-April and has already been released once this year. That all said, are the Mets willing to trade with the Yankees? I’ll need to see it to believe it.

Carlos Gomez, Rays

2018 Batting Line: .218/.309/.354 (88 wRC+) with eight homers and nine steals

Why Him? Gomez remains a strong defender even at age 32, though he’s much better in the corners than in center at this point. There’s not much thump in his bat these days. He can still ambush a fastball and steal the occasional base, and that’s about it. His platoon split (99 wRC+ vs. 84 wRC+) is small, so it’s not like the Yankees would be bringing in a bona fide lefty masher. Gomez is better than Robinson though, has been his entire career, and he’s still young enough that there might be a good dead cat bounce in here.

Why Not Him? Fair or not, Gomez is the type who rubs some people the wrong way. The Yankees might not want to bring anyone in who could potentially disrupt the clubhouse, especially since we’re talking about a bit player who will get pushed into a bench role once Judge returns. Whatever little bit Gomez gives you on the field might be negated by him getting on everyone’s nerves.

What Will It Cost? A lower ranked prospect who might not crack his team’s top 30 list. Spare parts like Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda were traded for fringe top 30 prospects last August. That’s the benchmark.

Curtis Granderson, Blue Jays

2018 Batting Line: .234/.333/.414 (105 wRC+) with ten home runs

Why Him? Who doesn’t love the Grandyman? Granderson still takes his walks (12.1%) and will sock some dingers, plus he knows how to use the short porch. Few left-handed hitters have done it better since the current Yankee Stadium opened a decade ago. Granderson can still hold his own against high-end pitching …

… and his .240/.336/.429 (109 wRC+) batting line against righties is far better than anything Robinson will give you. Granderson has been used as a platoon bat for a few years now, so he’s comfortable with a part-time role, plus he’s a Grade-A dude who fits in any clubhouse. I suspect that, if the Yankees brought Granderson back, it’d be like David Robertson last year. Like he never left. He’d fit right in.

Why Not Him? Granderson is a strict platoon bat, so you can’t use him against lefties, and his defense has slipped with age. Also, his 29.5% strikeout rate is a career high, and the Yankees don’t really need to add more strikeouts to the lineup. Otherwise, Granderson is a rental on a bad team, and he’d be a clear upgrade over Robinson, even in a part-time role.

What Will It Cost? Last August the Mets traded Granderson for a Triple-A reliever (Jacob Rhame) who was a prospect, but not a very good one. No reason to think it’ll cost more to get him this time around.

Andrew McCutchen, Giants

2018 Batting Line: .255/.355/.413 (114 wRC+) with 13 home runs

Why Him? McCutchen’s days as an MVP candidate are over, but he remains an above-average hitter who draws walks (12.4%), doesn’t strike out excessively (21.7%), and hits lefties hard (124 wRC+). He is someone the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) could run out there on an everyday basis with no issues whatsoever. McCutchen can still hit and hit in the middle of a contending team’s lineup. Get him out of AT&T Park and his power numbers will increase for sure. He’s an obvious fit.

Why Not Him? First of all, the pro-rated portion of his $14.5M salary doesn’t fit under the $197M luxury tax threshold. The Yankees would have to get the Giants to eat some money to make it work, which means giving up more in return. Also, McCutchen’s defense is not very good at this point, even in right field, and how does he handle being bumped into a reserve role once Judge returns? He seems like a more realistic option for a long-term injury. As far as we know, Judge remains on track to return at some point soon. If he were going to miss the rest of the season, then McCutchen would fit.

What Will It Cost? McCutchen has real trade value, and the more money the Giants eat, the more they can demand in return. San Francisco gave up a good prospect (Bryan Reynolds) and a big league reliever (Kyle Crick) to get McCutchen in the offseason, though they acquired a full season of him. Now they’re giving up less than one-third of a season of him. I don’t think asking for a quality mid-range prospect would be unreasonable. A Domingo Acevedo type, with the Giants eating some money to make the luxury tax plan work.

Hunter Pence, Giants

2018 Batting Line: .213/.250/.287 (45 wRC+) with one home run

Why Him? Well, he’s definitely available. The Giants have bumped the obviously declining Pence into a fourth outfielder’s role, so he’ll be okay with that once Judge returns. As with McCutchen, the Giants would have to eat salary to make this work — Pence is making $18.5M this year — though he should come cheap anyway. Think along the lines of the Vernon Wells salary dump.

Why Not Him? Pence can’t hit — he owns a .150/.203/.183 (4 wRC+) line against lefties, so you can’t even platoon him — can’t play defense, and can’t really run anymore. He is definitely more name value than on-field value at this point. Maybe being back in a postseason race will re-energize Pence and the Yankees can catch lightning in a bottle. At this point though, it is entirely possible if not likely he is no better than Robinson.

What Will It Take? Cash or non-prospects. Even if the Giants eat money. There’s just not much here.

Danny Valencia, Orioles

2018 Batting Line: .263/.316/.408 (93 wRC+) with nine home runs

Why Him? The Orioles designated Valencia for assignment over the weekend as part of the process of clearing roster space for younger players. He is a career southpaw masher and this year he owns a .303/.368/.505 (132 wRC+) line against lefties. Valencia can fake the four corner positions as well, so there is some versatility here. And considering he’s currently in DFA limbo, he should cost next to nothing to acquire. The Yankees might even be able to wait until he becomes a free agent, then sign him to the pro-rated portion of the league minimum.

Why Not Him? Valencia is useless against righties (64 wRC+) and he’s a terrible defender anywhere, so the versatility just means he can cost you runs at more positions. Also, Valencia has a reputation for being a bit of a headache in the clubhouse. There’s a reason he’s played for seven different teams since 2012 despite solid offensive numbers.

What Will It Take? Well, he’s in DFA limbo now, so nothing. Cash trade or wait until he gets released, then just sign him.

The pitchers are working out, but the Yankees needed another bat at the deadline and didn’t get one

August 8, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Lance-o-Lynn? Like sheep’s wool? (Presswire)

Monday night, with the Yankees reeling from that disaster series at Fenway Park, Lance Lynn stepped up and fired 7.1 shutout (and dominant) innings against an admittedly terrible White Sox team to get the Yankees back in the win column. He allowed a walk and two soft singles, and retired 19 straight batters at one point. Lynn was great. “I needed to show up today,” Lynn said, and he did.

It has only been a week since the trade deadline and, so far, the three pitchers the Yankees acquired have been good. Yeah, Zach Britton blew the save last night, but the three pitchers (Britton, Lynn, J.A. Happ) have combined to allow four runs in 22.1 innings. Can’t complain about the aggregate. The Yankees wanted to land an ace-caliber starter and, when that guy wasn’t available, they went for depth.

The three pitchers were the only notable additions Brian Cashman made at the trade deadline. He did effectively swap out Tyler Austin for Luke Voit, which is a lateral move of Quad-A proportions. The Yankees were said to be in the mix for an outfield bat, possibly even a catcher, but came up empty. “We kicked the tires on a lot of different things,” said Cashman, noting the price tags were too high.

No one likes to pay top dollar for anything, and, in this case, it means the Yankees have been playing short a bat (or two) since the trade deadline, and it has been painfully obvious at times. The offensive showings against the Red Sox on Friday and Saturday in particular were hideous. Even last night was yucky for innings at a time. Consider what Cashman and the Yankees knew definitively on July 30th, the day before the deadline:

Aaron Judge (wrist) and Gary Sanchez (groin) would miss weeks, not days.
Clint Frazer (post-concussion migraines) was out with no timetable for his return.
Jacoby Ellsbury was out with numerous injuries and not close to returning.
Austin, Brandon Drury, and Billy McKinney had already been traded away.

Despite all of that, the only bat the Yankees added was Voit, who is essentially Austin by another name. The Yankees have had to continue to roll with Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka behind the plate, and the generally punchless Shane Robinson has started six of the last eleven games. Six of the last eleven! Remember, Robinson was called up after the Happ trade, five days before the deadline. He wasn’t added to the roster post-deadline.

On one hand, overpaying stinks and that’s no way to do business, at least not consistently. On the other, the division was still within reach at the time and the Yankees had already paid handsomely for pitchers (Happ and Britton in particular), so if there ever was a time to overpay for a bat, wouldn’t it have this been this year? They were in the division race, the need for a bat is acute, and the Yankees have a deep farm system at their disposal. The trade chips were certainly there.

I suppose the good news is the Yankees can still add a bat through an August waiver trade. They have to navigate trade waivers and the luxury tax plan, but there are always bats available in August. It’s just a question of finding the right bat. Ideally, the Yankees would bring in a right-handed hitting outfielder comfortable with moving into a reserve role once Judge returns. Who is that player? Carlos Gomez?

Among the players moved at the deadline, only Cameron Maybin and Adam Duvall fit that description, and the Braves gave up quite a bit to get Duvall. So maybe it’s unfair to get on the Yankees for not trading for a bat. I dunno though. With so many outfielders out and Robinson playing so much, it’s hard for me to think a better option wasn’t out there. Hopefully the Yankees can get a bat in August or weather the storm until Judge & Co. return. Right now, it feels like the Yankees let a pretty significant need go unaddressed at the deadline.

The Brewers and a solution to the Sonny Gray problem

August 7, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Six days ago the Yankees moved Sonny Gray to the bullpen following a disaster start against the lowly Orioles, a disaster start in which he allowed seven runs in only 2.2 innings. Gray has not pitched since that game — to be fair, he wasn’t available until Saturday — and, frankly, I have no idea when the Yankees could use him. Has to be mop-up duty in a loss — I’m not sure I even trust Sonny in a blowout win — or extra innings only, right?

Anyway, Gray remains on the roster as a break glass in case of emergency reliever even though Brian Cashman did have a chance to move Gray at the trade deadline. During a radio interview last week Cashman explained he didn’t want to trade Gray just for the sake of trading him. A partial transcript:

“I think teams look at (Gray) and say, ‘alright, we have somebody who’s struggling in this environment, in New York — which has happened — and they have gone on elsewhere to pitch effectively or return to form. We understand and see that time and time again. So I had definitely teams that were in contention and teams that were not in contention because of his control year next year that asked about Sonny Gray because they know what his capabilities are and that his stuff is still the same. But the approached it in a buy-low situation where it did not make any sense … I was not presented with anything that would make me feel like I missed an opportunity or I should have done something.”

At this point it is very tough to see Gray remaining with the Yankees next season, or even possibly through the end of this season. You hate to trade away pitching depth, but Sonny has pitched so poorly that I’m not sure the Yankees can rely on him as depth anyway. Lance Lynn is in the rotation now and J.A. Happ is coming back soon, plus Chance Adams showed enough over the weekend to get another spot start should one be needed.

Trades are still possible in August, they just require trade waivers, which complicate things slightly. Long story short, players who clear trade waivers can be traded anywhere at any time. Players who are claimed on trade waivers can only be traded to the claiming team within 48 hours. Gray is making $6.5M this season, of which roughly $2.1M is still owed to him, and I think that’s enough to get him through waivers unclaimed. The overwhelming majority of players clear trade waivers anyway.

Clearly, Gray has fallen out of favor with the Yankees, and truth be told he would almost certainly benefit from a change of scenery as well. I’m not a big believer in the whole “he can’t handle New York” stuff, but, at this point, Sonny could probably use a change. A fresh start with a new team, etc. etc. I’m going to do something now I rarely do around here: Propose a trade. My proposal:

Brewers get: Sonny Gray
Yankees get: Keon Broxton and pitching prospect Zack Brown

My trade proposal sucks. I am fully aware of that and I welcome the ridicule and the overwhelming potential to look dumb. I don’t do the whole “here’s a very specific trade” idea thing often though, and I figured I’d indulge myself. Gray to the Brewers for Broxton and Brown. Two-for-one. Let’s talk it out.

Why the Brewers?

At 65-50, the Brewers have the third best record in the National League and they’re 1.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. They have a need in their rotation with Jimmy Nelson (shoulder surgery), Zach Davies (back), and Brent Suter (Tommy John surgery) all on the disabled list and not due back anytime soon, and they’re loaded with outfielders. They traded top 100-ish prospect Brett Phillips for Mike Moustakas and still have this outfield depth chart:

Christian Yelich
Lorenzo Cain
Eric Thames
Ryan Braun
Domingo Santana (in Triple-A)
Keon Broxton (in Triple-A)

The Brewers had interest in Gray last season. I didn’t randomly pick them as a trade partner. There’s been interest here in the not-too-distant past. The Yankees and Brewers were the two teams vying for Sonny at the deadline last year. The A’s wanted a close-to-MLB center fielder in the trade package and the Yankees made Dustin Fowler available while the Brewers reportedly said no to Lewis Brinson, and that was that. (Brinson went to the Marlins in the Yelich trade over the winter.)

Furthermore, Brewers pitching coach Derek Johnson was Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt back in the day and the two are very close. “He’s a pretty special person to me. He was one of those father-figure types you hear people talk about — especially at an important part of my life,” said Gray to Mark Chiarelli in 2016. The Brewers need a starter, they have outfield depth to spare, they had interest in Gray last year, and he’s close with their pitching coach. And he’ll remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player last year. It fits.

Why Broxton?

The Yankees went from having plenty of outfield depth to starting Shane Robinson in five of their last ten games in a hurry. Aaron Judge is injured and it doesn’t seem he’ll return in the original three-week time frame. Clint Frazier is out with post-concussion migraines and there’s no telling when he’ll return. Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a tight hamstring. Billy McKinney was traded away. Jacoby Ellsbury? Hah.

The Yankees really need another outfielder and Broxton, while flawed, is an upgrade over Robinson. The 28-year-old is a very good defensive center fielder and he’s a right-handed hitter with a history of punishing left-handed pitchers. The career big league numbers:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	BB%	K%
vs. RHP	529	.215/.297/.404	82	22	9.1%	36.9%
vs. LHP	245	.242/.362/.449	115	9	15.9%	35.4%
Total	774	.223/.317/.418	93	31	11.2%	36.4%

Yeah, Broxton strikes out a ton and the Yankees don’t really need more strikeouts to the lineup, but they also don’t need more Shane Robinson in the lineup either. Robinson, despite hitting the home run last week and having that tough sac bunt attempt turned walk Sunday night, can’t hit. Broxton will at least draw walks and hit lefties, on top of the defensive upgrade.

The Brewers have no spot for Broxton on their roster and he’s spent pretty much the entire season in Triple-A, where he’s hitting .260/.329/.422 (95 wRC+) in 310 plate appearances. This is his final minor league option year as well, and it’s hard to see where he fits on next year’s roster. The guy is already 28 and he’ll be out of options next year. Chances are the Brewers will be looking to trade him over the winter or next spring before losing him on waivers.

The Yankees could replace Robinson with Broxton right away and, at the very least, platoon him with Brett Gardner. The Judge injury and Stanton’s lingering hamstring issue means he’d probably get a fair amount of playing time the next few weeks. The Brewers don’t have a spot for him and it is unlikely he’s in their long-term plans. Broxton is an expendable piece for Milwaukee and an upgrade over Robinson for the Yankees.

Why Brown?

The 23-year-old Brown was a fifth round pick in 2016 and he is currently in Double-A, where he has a 2.34 ERA (3.40 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts, 7.2% walks, and 56.4% grounders. Great numbers! Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Brown among Milwaukee’s top ten prospects in their recent update though, and MLB.com ranks him as the 12th best prospect in the system. Their scouting report:

He pitches with a 92-95 mph fastball to both sides of the plate … He’s adept at manipulating the pitch, too, as he’ll turn it over to create sinking action at times while reaching back for extra velo with his four-seamer as dictated by the situation. His curveball, though currently underused, is a plus pitch, and he also has feel for a promising changeup that contrasts nicely against his heater … Brown’s detractors believe that he’ll end up in the bullpen on account of his high-effort delivery.

Brown fits the mold of a quality ‘tweener pitching prospect. Can he master a changeup? Will the delivery hold up as a starter? If not, he’ll end up a reliever, potentially a very good one. Brown’s a notch below where Dillon Tate was before the Yankees traded him, and he’s about two notches below where Chance Adams was in 2016, just for reference. The results are better than the scouting report, but the scouting report is still pretty good. Here’s some video:

The trade boils down to Gray for a fourth outfielder and a second tier pitching prospect. Considering what the Yankees gave up to get Gray, it’s a big net loss. Sonny is a sunk cost though. The Yankees made the trade and he’s pitched terribly. They can either stick it out and try to make it work — that wouldn’t be crazy, in my opinion — or cut their losses and turn him into usable pieces. Broxton helps now and Brown could help later.

For all intents and purposes, the trade is Gray for Brown. Broxton is a spare part without a ton of trade value. He’s closer to 30 than 25 and he’ll be out of options next year, and he’s been unable to carve out a big league role despite extending playing time in 2016 and 2017. Guys like that don’t fetch much on the trade market, even a reclamation project starter like Gray. Sonny’s track record and extra year of control have real value.

The Brewers get a starter with a strong track record and get to reunite him with his college pitching coach, and they give up an extraneous outfielder and a good pitching prospect from a deep farm system. The Yankees give up an out-of-favor pitcher, upgrade their short-term outfield situation, and add a pitching prospect who could help as soon as next year. Also, trading Gray opens a bullpen spot for Tommy Kahnle. It all makes sense to me, but, then again, my trade proposal sucks.

Thoughts following the 2018 trade deadline

August 1, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. The Yankees made six trades within the last week, five of which directly impacted the MLB roster, though they did not sneak in one last move prior to yesterday’s 4pm ET deadline. Lame! Not a big deal though. Let’s get to some deadline thoughts.

1. Perhaps my favorite thing about the trade deadline moves is that they Yankees fully committed to Miguel Andujar at third base. He doesn’t have to look over his shoulder at Brandon Drury anymore. The Yankees originally acquired Drury because they weren’t completely sold on Andujar — I could be completely wrong here, though that’s what it seemed like to me, and I don’t think it was unreasonable — and now, five months later, Drury gets moved and Andujar is the man at the hot corner. He’s earned it too. The kid’s hitting .292/.324/.497 (120 wRC+) with 45 extra-base hits in 94 games. Yeah, I wish he walked more and I wish he had more range defensively, but there’s so much to like about Andujar. The Yankees made their third base pick and said here you go kid, the position is yours the rest of the season while we’re in this division race. They’re showing a lot of confidence in him. Will that confidence still exist when Manny Machado becomes a free agent after the season? We’ll see. For now, the Yankees just gave Andujar a big vote of confidence. I love it.

2. As for things I didn’t love, I didn’t love effectively salary dumping Adam Warren — salary dumping him on another AL contender, no less — and I still don’t love it even after the other shoe dropped and the Yankees added Lance Lynn. Warren’s pretty good! Has been for a while and I don’t really trust A.J. Cole to fill that role. That said, what I think doesn’t matter. The Yankees made that series of moves for two reasons. One, Lynn is better able to move into the rotation than Warren, if necessary. And two, they probably believe there isn’t much of a difference between Warren and Lynn as a reliever. Lynn’s numbers as a starter this season aren’t great (5.10 ERA and 4.72 FIP), but let him air it out for an inning or two in relief and good things could happen. We’re only talking about maybe 20 innings the rest of the season, so any difference between Warren and Lynn is unlikely to be significant, and the fact Lynn can start makes it worth it.

3. Speaking of Lynn starting, my guess is it’ll happen quite a bit in the coming weeks, especially once rosters expand in September. Heck, the Yankees might go with a full blown six-man rotation in September. Last night’s game kicked off a 20 games in 20 days stretch and I’d put money on Lynn making a start or two during this stretch to give the other starters a little extra rest. Same when the Yankees play 14 games in 13 days in a few weeks. Luis Severino might be hitting a wall here in the second half, and any little bit of extra rest the Yankees can give CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka is worthwhile. The balancing act won’t be easy — how do you keep Lynn stretched out to start when he’s sitting in the bullpen for weeks at a time? — but I don’t think this was a spur of the moment trade. The Yankees have a plan in place. They brought Lynn in specifically because he can start and relieve, and they already have an idea how they’ll use him the rest of the season.

4. No team in baseball throws fewer fastballs than the Yankees. Going into last night’s game their 44.8% fastball rate was the lowest in baseball. The Indians were a distant second at 49.4%. Bendy pitches are hard to hit, so the Yankees throw a lot of them. Now here are the pitchers with the highest fastball rates in baseball this year:

Bartolo Colon: 79.0%
Lance Lynn: 76.7%
J.A. Happ: 74.5%
Junior Guerra: 70.8%
Trevor Williams: 70.2%

Hmmm. The anti-fastball Yankees just picked up two of the most extreme fastball pitchers in the game. Happ threw 78.1% fastballs the other day, so the Yankees haven’t changed him (yet). And I don’t think they will. Same with Lynn. They are fastball pitchers. They succeed by throwing a lot of fastballs. Why change it? They’re rentals. Stick with what works for them. I don’t think the Yankees made a concerted effort to add fastball pitchers at the trade deadline. I think that’s just kinda how the market shook out. If nothing else, Happ and Lynn will bring a much different dynamic to the pitching staff.

5. I am very glad the Yankees were able to keep Clint Frazier. Yes, his post-concussion migraines and the fact there was no controllable high-end starter available played a big part in that, but I’m still glad Frazier was able to stick around. “He survived this deadline and he survived the winter because we do value him,” said Brian Cashman to Bryan Hoch yesterday. It’s still unclear where exactly Frazier fits long-term — letting Brett Gardner go and sticking Clint in left field next year is the easy move, though I’d bet the farm on Gardner being a Yankees in 2019 — though there’s no need to figure that out now. Let him get healthy and get some at-bats before the season ends, then evaluate things in the offseason and Spring Training. I’m just glad Frazier is still around. Gary Sanchez joined the lineup in 2016 and had an impact. Aaron Judge did it last year. Gleyber Torres and Andujar are doing it this year. Frazier can do it next year. It’s fun to think about. Very happy Clint is still a Yankee. The more young talent, the better.

6. The Yankees really cleaned up their 40-man roster at the deadline. They traded four prospects who were going to have to be added to the 40-man after the season (Cody Carroll, Caleb Frare, Josh Rogers, Dillon Tate) as well as three guys who figured to end up on the 40-man chopping block (Tyler Austin, Gio Gallegos, Billy McKinney). That creates flexibility during the season and will also make life easy when Rule 5 Draft protection times in November. I know it’s easy to say most Rule 5 Draft picks don’t stick, which is absolutely true, but there is a lot of selection bias there. The best players, the ones with the best chances to stick, are either added to the 40-man roster or traded ahead of time. Guys like Carroll and Rogers and Tate have a much better chance of sticking as a Rule 5 Draft pick than someone like, say, Anyelo Gomez or Nestor Cortes. At the moment the Yankees have one open 40-man spot with two more easily available by dropping Ryan Bollinger — Bollinger was called up yesterday because Lynn had yet to arrive and the Yankees didn’t want to play with a 24-man roster last night — and sliding Jordan Montgomery to the 60-day DL. A few weeks ago the 40-man roster was real tight and the Yankees were at risk of losing useful players for nothing on waivers. That is no longer a concern.

7. What are the Yankees going to do with those 40-man roster spots? Well, that remains to be seen, but I absolutely expect one of them to go to Justus Sheffield before the end of the season. He might only be a September call-up to work low-leverage spots out of the bullpen — the Happ and Lynn additions make it less likely Sheffield is needed as a starter now, and I am totally cool with that — and that’s fine. Letting a young pitcher get his feet wet as a reliever in September is a-okay with me. Point is, we’re going to see Sheffield in the big leagues at some point soon. We could also see some other young pitchers get those 40-man roster spots in September, like maybe Chance Adams or Stephen Tarpley, but Sheffield is the big one. He’s the best prospect in the organization and anytime you’re talking about a lefty with mid-90s gas and a wipeout slider pitching out of the bullpen, there’s going to be a chance for him to carve out a role quickly. Hey, maybe Sheffield can be the Yankees’ version of the 2002 Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod came up as a September call-up in 2002, completely dominated, and the Angels had no choice but to carry him on the postseason roster. That’d be cool, though the Yankees have enough quality arms in the bullpen. We’ll see. I do think Sheffield is coming up at some point. The deadline moves helped clear a 40-man spot.

8. The Yankees traded a surprising among out of pitching depth at the deadline, huh? Warren, Gallegos, Carroll, and Chasen Shreve were all traded away. Three dudes with big league time this year and a fourth who was a phone call away. Rogers and I suppose even Tate could’ve been call-up options if necessary. Instead, the Yankees traded them all away. And to be fair, the Yankees did get three big league pitchers in return. It’s just kinda weird to see so much MLB pitching depth traded away. This tells me two things. One, the Yankees feel pretty darn good about kids like Sheffield and Adams and Tarpley as call-up options. And two, Tommy Kahnle is not a forgotten man. Reports indicate Kahnle is still more 95-96 mph with Triple-A Scranton rather than 98-99 mph like last year, and that is kinda worrisome, but 95-96 mph is still plenty good enough to get outs. Gallegos was the primary up-and-down reliever this year. Whenever the Yankees needed a 26th man for a doubleheader or just an extra arm for a few days, he got the call. I think Kahnle might be that guy now. That the Yankees traded away a decent amount of pitching depth and still have a guy like Kahnle — even a slightly reduced version of Kahnle — in reserve at Triple-A is pretty awesome.

9. Thanks to the recent trades the Yankees have maxed out their 2018-19 international bonus pool at $8,721,125. They’ve already signed a bunch of international free agents and it sounds like more signings are coming. The Yankees could be gearing up for a run at much ballyhooed Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa — he’s still waiting to be cleared by MLB, so his signing is not imminent — though I think the Yankees traded for all that bonus money with the intention of using it on other players. Other teams are going to have more bonus money to offer Victor² and I will always bet on the team that offers the most money getting the player. Shohei Ohtani was a very unique case. Cuban players have a history of going to the highest bidder and that is totally cool. That’s what I’d do. Because of that, I think the Yankees have other signings lined up for all that bonus money. Either way, the Yankees typically do very well in Latin America, so I’m excited to see where they go. This trade deadline was as much as bolstering the MLB roster with Britton, Happ, and Lynn as it was about adding future talent to the organization through international free agency.

10. The trade deadline has passed but that does not mean the deal-making is over. Trades are still possible in August through trade waivers and, because the Yankees did not get the right-handed hitting outfielder they were said to be seeking, there’s a chance they’ll be active on trade rumors. A righty hitting outfielder and a catcher. Those are the two items atop the shopping list right now. The Yankees have two obstacles to navigate with trade waivers. One, only the Red Sox have a lower waiver priority. The Indians and Astros and Mariners and every other non-Red Sox team can place a claim to block a player from going to the Yankees. Happens all the time. At the same time, the Yankees can block a player from going to the Red Sox, so that’s cool. And two, the Yankees have to watch their claims because of the luxury tax plan. When you claim a player, you have to be prepared in case the other team dumps him and his contract on you, even when it seems unlikely. The Yankees won’t be able to claim Andrew McCutchen because the Giants might dump the remainder of his $14.75M salary on them and blow up the luxury tax plan. Making trades in August is always more complicated than making trades before the deadline, but it’s not impossible. The Yankees just have to watch their claims this year because of the luxury tax plan, which may put them at a disadvantage.

Yankees make no additional deals prior to trade deadline

July 31, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone and the Yankees did not sneak in one last trade prior to today’s 4pm ET. They were still very active — perhaps the most active team, really — prior to the deadline. The Yankees made six trades in the last seven days, five of which directly impact the big league roster:

Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, and Cody Carroll for Zach Britton. (RAB post)
Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney for J.A. Happ. (RAB post)
Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos for Luke Voit and $1M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Caleb Frare for $1.5M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Adam Warren for $1.25M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo for Lance Lynn. (RAB post)

Trades can still be made in August (and September), remember. They just require trade waivers, which can be a headache. The Yankees figure to monitor the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder (because Aaron Judge is hurt) and a catcher (because Gary Sanchez is hurt), though they are not urgent matters. They can definitely be addressed in August.

Ultimately, the Yankees got the rotation depth they needed in Happ and Lynn, though they were unable to land that high-end impact starter with long-term control. That pitcher wasn’t really available, depending on your opinion of Chris Archer and Kevin Gausman. Add Britton bolsters the bullpen as well, plus all that international bonus money will be put to good use. All things considered, a successful deadline for the Yankees. Onward.

2018 Trade Deadline Rumors: Tuesday

July 31, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

A lefty bat worth squeezing between Judge and Stanton. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is 4pm ET today and wow have the Yankees been busy. The busiest team in baseball over the last week or so, right? Feels like it. The Yankees have completed six trades in the last six days, some more impactful than others. A recap:

Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, and Cody Carroll for Zach Britton. (RAB post)
Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney for J.A. Happ. (RAB post)
Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos for Luke Voit and $1M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Caleb Frare for $1.5M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Adam Warren for $1.25M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo for Lance Lynn. (RAB post)

Eleven players out, four players and $3.75M worth of international bonus money in. Know what the crazy thing is? I am not at all convinced the Yankees are done. They could still use another outfielder (because Aaron Judge is hurt) as well as a catcher (because Gary Sanchez is hurt). Plus more pitching. I’d rather have too much than not enough.

We’re once again going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so make sure you check back for updates. The Yankees have made so many moves already that I can’t promise many rumors today, they might in fact be done, but I am open to being surprised. Chat about all the day’s trade deadline rumors and activity here.

2:28pm ET: The Yankees will not be getting Cameron Maybin. He’s been traded to the Mariners. The Yankees reportedly remain in the hunt for a right-handed outfield bat, however.
11:10am ET: The Yankees want a right-handed outfield bat to help cover for Judge, though they were not in on Tommy Pham, who was traded to the Rays. They want someone comfortable with a bench role. [Joel Sherman]
10:49am ET: The Yankees have “zero interest” in Matt Harvey, and that was even before the Happ and Lynn trades. Not surprised. I couldn’t see the Yankees bringing him back to New York, especially since there’s little reason to believe he can pitch well in Yankee Stadium. [Andy Martino]
10:36am ET: You can stop fantasizing about Harper now. “Bryce is not going anywhere. I believe in this team,” said Nationals GM Mike Rizzo this morning. [Chelsea Janes]
10:21am ET: The Yankees have discussed Brad Ziegler with the Marlins. Unless there would be another deal coming a la Warren/Lynn, I’m not sure where he fits. Maybe they’re trying to drive up the price for the Red Sox, who have been connected to Ziegler. [Feinsand]
10:20am ET: The Yankees are expected to add an outfielder today. Expecting to add an outfielder and actually adding an outfielder are two different things though. [Ken Rosenthal, Feinsand]
10:09am ET: The Yankees have spoken to the Mets about Jose Bautista. The Mets don’t want to give him away though, plus the chances of a Yankees-Mets trade are always small. [Heyman]
9:30am ET: In case you missed it last night, the Nationals have made Bryce Harper available. The Yankees haven’t checked in as far as we know, but still, this is pretty noteworthy. [Mark Feinsand]
9:30am ET: The Yankees are among the teams with interest in impending free agent Andrew McCutchen. The Giants insist they’re not ready to sell even though they’ve fallen out of the race. McCutchen is definitely someone who could be on the move in August. [Jon Morosi]
9:30am ET: The Yankees have also checked in on Curtis Granderson and Cameron Maybin, so they’re casting a wide net for an outfielder in the wake of Judge’s injury. I’d be all for a Granderson reunion. The R2C2 podcast episode alone would make it worth it. [Morosi, Jon Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Yanks acquire Lance Lynn for Tyler Austin, pitching prospect

July 30, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Even with J.A. Happ on board, the Yankees have decided to add another starting pitcher. Tyler Austin and pitching prospect Luis Rijo have been traded to the Twins for right-hander Lance Lynn, it has been announced. It is a done deal. Officially official. Jon Heyman says the Twins are eating half Lynn’s salary.

“It’s the New York Yankees. As a fan of the game growing up, it’s exciting for me as a young kid, seeing them in their heyday winning a lot of World Series championships,” said Lynn to Dan Hayes. “You look at their team now, they’re going for it. I’m excited for that opportunity and that challenge. It’s going to be a different experience. I’m just going to go in there and try to do everything I can to help, whatever that may be.”

The Yankees shipped Adam Warren to the Mariners for international bonus money earlier today, so they essentially swapped Warren for Lynn on the roster. It breaks down like this:

Yankees get: Lynn and $1.25M in international bonus money
Yankees give up: Warren, Austin, Rijo

Lynn, 31, has a 5.10 ERA (4.73 FIP) with 21.3% strikeout rate and a 50.8% ground ball rate in 102.1 innings this season, all as a starter. His walk rate (13.2%) is way too high. It’s been high his entire career (career 9.4% walk rate), but never this high. Free passes are bad news, though at least Lynn mitigates them with strikeouts and grounders.

For what it’s worth, Lynn has pitched better since an ugly April — seems like all the free agents who signed late started slow this year — throwing 78.2 innings with a 4.12 ERA (4.16 FIP). Walk rate (11.1%) is still too high, though the strikeouts (21.0%) and grounders (50.6%) have been there. Clearly, the Yankees are banking on track record here. Lynn owns a career 3.54 ERA (3.74 FIP).

The Yankees presumably swapped Warren for Lynn because they believe Lynn is better capable of stepping into the rotation, if necessary. I don’t disagree with that. Lynn does have bullpen experience, though it’s been a while. The Cardinals regularly used him out of the bullpen in the postseason during their glory days from 2011-15.

Austin was made completely expendable by the recent Luke Voit pickup. They’re both 27-ish year old right-handed hitting first basemen. Austin will be out of minor league options after the season. Voit will not. So there you go. Voit replaces Austin as the up-and-down platoon first baseman going forward.

When Greg Bird was hurt earlier this year, Austin stepped up and hit .290/.362/.629 (166 wRC+) with five home runs in April. He wasn’t so good after that, finishing with a .223/.280/.471 (111 wRC+) line with eight homers and 40.2% strikeouts in 132 big league plate appearances before being sent to Triple-A. Austin was good when the Yankees needed him. Props.

Rijo, 19, has a 2.77 ERA (2.47 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 1.8% walks in 39 rookie ball inning this season. He is not among MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects and he wasn’t going to be on my upcoming post-draft top 30 prospects list. The Yankees literally have more pitching prospects than rotation spots in the minors. They’re loaded with kids like Rijo. No surprise they dealt from that depth.

As for the financials, the Warren trade combined with the Twins eating half Lynn’s salary makes this effectively cash neutral for the Yankees. They’re still about $3M under the $197M luxury tax threshold, give or take. Some of that needs to be saved for injury call-ups and September call-ups. I think Warren is better than Lynn, but what I think doesn’t matter, plus Lynn can start. Warren can’t. The Yankees added more length to the pitching staff today.