2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Thursday

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Earlier this week the Yankees swung a blockbuster trade with the Cubs, sending Aroldis Chapman to Chicago for Adam Warren and three prospects. There were an awful lot of rumors and buildup to that trade — that’s a Theo Epstein hallmark — but things have been fairly quiet since. That’s not unusual for the Yankees. Their moves tend to come out of nowhere. The Chapman trade was the exception.

Of course, the Yankees are also said to be on the fence about selling, and their recent 11-6 hot streak hasn’t exactly helped matters. It’s making me a little nervous. The Yankees are going to make some important decisions these next four days, decisions that really impact the future of the franchise. Anyway, here are Wednesday’s rumors, and once again, we’ll keep track of the day’s trade rumors right here, so make sure you check back often. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30pm: The Yankees will move Ivan Nova no matter what before the deadline. The team is not planning to make him the qualifying offer after the season, so they want to get something for him at the deadline rather than nothing after the season. The pitching market is so bleak right now that I think Nova might actually fetch something halfway decent. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:25am: The Yankees have called the White Sox about Chris Sale multiple times. Chicago wants five top prospects for their ace lefty, and thanks to the haul from the Aroldis Chapman trade, the Yankees just might have the pieces to get it done. [Jon Heyman]
  • 12:04pm: One Yankees-connected person said there is “no chance” they trade Andrew Miller. The team is listening to offers, but their asking price is “prohibitive.” Given what they received for Chapman, I can’t even imagine what it would take to get Miller. [Heyman]
  • 2:09pm: The Yankees asked the Nationals for a four-player package built around young pitching for Chapman. First they asked for Lucas Giolito, and when Washington said no, they asked for Joe Ross. The Nationals said no again. [Heyman]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Wednesday

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The Yankees sure do know how to make things complicated, don’t they? Rather than continue to fade out of the postseason race and into obscurity, the Yankees have gone 11-5 in their last 16 games to climb to within four games of the second wildcard spot. There are still three teams ahead of them, but hey, that’s better than six. FanGraphs put their postseason odds at 10.1% as of this writing.

Two days ago the Yankees made what can no doubt be described as a “sellers” trade when they shipped Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Adam Warren and three minors leaguers. Will they continue to sell pieces before Monday’s trade deadline? Or will the recent hot streak prompt them to go out and add help? I guess we’ll find out over the next five days. Here are Tuesday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of the day’s Yankees’ rumors right here, so check back often for updates. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30am: The Yankees seek big league ready players in any Andrew Miller trade. They were willing to take true minor league prospects for Chapman, but not Miller. They want players who can help right now. That’s smart. There’s no urgency to trade Miller given his contract situation. Someone’s going to have to blow them away. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: In addition to the Marlins, the Rangers are also in the mix for Ivan Nova. The Yankees are said to be looking to move Nova next now that Chapman’s gone. He’s a rental and he hasn’t pitched all that well, but there are so few quality starters on the market that I bet they get something halfway decent for him. [George King]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

As great as he’s been, Yankees shouldn’t consider Beltran a qualifying offer candidate

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

With eleven wins in their last 16 games, the Yankees are a season-high four games over .500 and firmly on the winning side of the ledger. They’ve had a winning record for a grand total of eleven days this season, believe it or not. It would be even fewer than that without Carlos Beltran‘s brilliance. He’s been, by far, the Yankees’ best and most consistent hitter this season.

Even with those eleven wins in 16 games, the Yankees have gained only one game in the wildcard race. That’s all. One silly little game. They were five games back before this 11-5 stretch and they’re four games back today. The Yankees already traded away Aroldis Chapman and they should continue to sell at the trade deadline. And if they do, Beltran figures to be one of their more valuable chips. He’s a productive veteran bat who can help any contender.

The alternative is keeping Beltran, attempting to make a run in the second half, then making him the qualifying offer after the season when he becomes a free agent. That would net the Yankees a supplemental first round pick in the 2017 draft should Carlos sign elsewhere. This assumes the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t change or eliminate the qualifying offer system first. I don’t think that’ll happen though.

The qualifying offer sounds like a fine backup plan, but I don’t see Beltran as a candidate to receive one. Or at least I don’t think the Yankees should tender him the offer. It’s easy to understand why the Yankees would do so, but I see such a move as almost all downside for one big reason: Beltran will probably take it. The qualifying offer will be worth $17M or so, and who is offering that to Carlos as a free agent, even across two years? Teams are shying away from older, one-dimensional sluggers nowadays.

The Yankees have money even though like to pretend they don’t. Bringing Beltran back next season on an expensive one-year deal doesn’t seem like such a bad thing, especially with the way he’s hitting this year, but I see three problems with it.

1. He’s probably not going to hit like this again. Beltran is defying the odds this season. He’s hitting .309/.350/.554 (138 OPS+) with 21 homers in 95 games overall, and amazingly, I don’t think he’s had one slump all year. He just keeps hitting. It’s impressive. Now let’s look at a list of players comparable to Beltran since the 1961 expansion, meaning 39-year-old everyday outfielders who were above-average at the plate:

2004 Barry Bonds: 263 OPS+ (lol)
1970 Willie Mays: 140 OPS+
1985 Reggie Jackson: 135 OPS+
1991 Dave Winfield: 120 OPS+
2004 Steve Finley: 109 OPS+
2007 Luis Gonzalez: 104 OPS+

That’s the complete list. Six players since 1961 and Beltran’s about to make it seven. And remember, every single one of those guys except Gonzalez was allowed to use amphetamines, or greenies as they’re called in baseball circles. Greenies were banned in 2005, so 39-year-old outfielders can’t turn to them for that extra boost of energy.

Those are the players like Beltran right now, 39-year-old everyday outfielders. What about 40-year-olds? Beltran turns 40 in April, so if the Yankees bring him back next year, that’s what they’re getting, a 40-year-old outfielder. Here’s the list of everyday outfielders who were above-average at the plate during their age 40 season during the expansion era:

1971 Willie Mays: 158 OPS+
1999 Rickey Henderson: 128 OPS+
2007 Kenny Lofton: 105 OPS+

Three players and two of them were among the greatest players to ever live. Know what else is crazy? Only one other outfielder even had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title during their age 40 season since 1961. Jeff Conine did it in 2006, when he had an 86 OPS+. Heck, let’s drop the outfield part. Only eleven 40-year-old players have produced at a league average clip since 1961, and most of them had the benefit of greenies. Here’s the list.

Maybe Beltran will be one of those outliers. Should the Yankees bank on that? I don’t think so. You needn’t look beyond New York’s roster for examples of an older player being productive one year and a liability the next. Mark Teixeira‘s and Alex Rodriguez‘s declines are a big reason why the Yankees have spent only those eleven days in first place.

2. The roster construction will be a mess again. The Yankees are stuck either playing Beltran in right field or sitting A-Rod on the bench at the moment. It’s not a great situation at all. It’s almost like a 24-man roster. The roster construction is so bad right now. The Yankees lack flexibility with the bench and DH spot, and if they bring Beltran back, that will continue.

I suppose they could release A-Rod to clear up the logjam, but I’m sorry, I’m going to have to see that to believe it. As long as there are home run records to be chased — Alex is four away from 700 and 18 away from tying Babe Ruth — there’s money to be made and tickets to be sold. Let’s face it, the Yankees might need all the attendance and ratings help they can get next year. A-Rod puts butts in the seats.

(Free Adams/Times Leader)
Judge. (Free Adams/Times Leader)

3. The Yankees need to start getting younger. The Yankees currently have four legitimate outfield prospects in Triple-A: Aaron Judge, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, and Jake Cave. All four are among the 25 best prospects in the organization. That doesn’t include Cesar Puello, a former top prospect who is playing extremely well in Triple-A after being picked up as a minor league free agent. It also doesn’t include Aaron Hicks in MLB or Dustin Fowler and Billy McKinney in Double-A.

The Yankees have a lot of impressive young outfielders at the upper levels of the minors and that’s awesome. They should be thrilled to have so many young options, and in the cases of Judge and Williams, high upside options. The Yankees need to start making room for these guys and bringing Beltran back doesn’t accomplish that at all. In fact, it’s gotten to the point now where the Yankees need to think about clearing two outfield spots next year to make room for these guys. Let Beltran go and trade Brett Gardner. That sort of thing. (I’m guessing they’re stuck with Jacoby Ellsbury.)

* * *

This would all be rendered moot if Beltran declined the qualifying offer, but I think the chances of that are so small. Beltran said at the All-Star Game that he wants to play two more years, so he’s not thinking about retirement, and who’s going to give up a draft pick to sign a 40-year-old outfielder or DH, let alone offer close to $17M? If the Yankees make the qualifying offer, accepting it would be Beltran’s best shot at gainful employment next year.

There’s too much downside to bringing Beltran back next season — he’s likely to decline, the roster will be inflexible, the young outfielders will be blocked, etc. — for the qualifying offer to be a serious consideration. Hopefully the Yankees realize this and decide to cash in on Beltran’s big season by trading him for a prospect or two at the deadline, rather than keep him and lose him for nothing after the season. Or worse, bring him back in 2017. This is a classic example of letting a player go a year early rather than a year late.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Tuesday

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

Yesterday afternoon the Yankees made their biggest trade in quite some time, sending Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Adam Warren and three prospects. One of those prospects, shortstop Gleyber Torres, ranks among the top 25-ish prospects in baseball. It’s a significant haul for a rental reliever, even one as good as Chapman, and it very well might be the team’s biggest move at this year’s trade deadline.

“This one move doesn’t necessarily create a domino effect of selling, and it doesn’t prevent a domino effect of buying,” said Brian Cashman to reporters on yesterday’s trade conference call. “This is an easy call, and this was the right call. Easy because we traded from an area of strength, and we are excited about the players that we received for someone that obviously was only under control for two more months.”

With Chapman gone, the focus figures to shift to the team’s other rental players, namely Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova. Andrew Miller‘s name has been out there as well, ditto basically everyone in the rotation other than Masahiro Tanaka. Here are Monday’s trade deadline rumors. We’ll again keep track of today’s rumors right here, in this one post, so check back often. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30am: Trading Nova is the next priority, and the Marlins are among the interested teams. “They’re shooting high, but it’s early. They know what the pitching market looks like right now and they’re trying to capitalize on that,” said a source to Mark Feinsand. I guess there’s a chance Nova has already thrown his last pitch as a Yankee.
  • 9:30am: Brett Gardner is a consideration for the Dodgers, though he is not atop their list of targets. Los Angeles is without Andre Ethier (leg) and Trayce Thompson (back), plus Yasiel Puig isn’t hitting, so they need outfield help. Howie Kendrick in left isn’t going too well. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: The Nationals were “deep in conversations” with the Yankees about Chapman before he was traded to the Cubs. They didn’t put enough on the table though, so to the Cubs he went. The Nats could change gears and focus on Miller now. [Buster Olney]
  • 10:21am: The Nats declared Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Reynaldo Lopez off-limits in Chapman trade talks. That’s a lot of untouchables. The Indians were “seemingly” unwilling to part with top outfield prospects Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier. [Ken Rosenthal]
  • 10:51am: Rival clubs say the Yankees are buying and selling, and are looking for controllable pitching in particular. “We’re not playing in a narrow-minded world. We want to be open to any and all ideas. Buy, sell, long, short. It’s in our best interests to be creative and open-minded, not just now,” said Cashman. [Ken Rosenthal]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Monday

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

The 2016 non-waiver trade deadline is exactly one week away, and for the first time since they traded away Rickey Henderson and Mike Pagliarulo in 1989, the Yankees have to seriously consider selling this year. They’re 4.5 games out of a wildcard spot with three teams ahead of them, and, more importantly, at no point this season have the Yankees looked capable of making the kind of extended run it’ll take to get back into the race.

Over the weekend learned the Yankees are inching closer to trading Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for top prospect Gleyber Torres and a second piece. That could happen as soon as today. Our Scouting the Market: Cubs post will tell you everything you need to know about Torres and various other Cubs prospects. Several other teams were in the mix for Chapman as well, and I suppose someone could sneak in at the last minute and make a big offer. We’ll see. We’re going to keep track of the day’s trade rumors right here, so make sure you check back often. All time stamps are ET.

  • 10:15am: The Yankees are expected to receive Torres, ex-Yankee Adam Warren, and likely two others (!) for Chapman if the trade is completed. Jorge Soler and Jeimer Candelario are not in the deal. It’s still a 4-for-1 trade and, uh, wow. [Joel Sherman, Ken Rosenthal]
  • 10:15am: The Yankees “internally debated” Torres or Eloy Jimenez as the center piece of the trade. They’re opting for the potential up-the-middle impact player over the corner outfield bat. For what it’s worth, Torres is the higher-ranked prospect too. [Sherman]
  • 10:15am: The Yankees have discussed shortstop prospect Yu-Cheng Chang in trade talks with the Indians. Chang is Cleveland’s No. 12, per MLB.com. The 20-year-old is hitting .275/.345/.494 (128 wRC+) with eleven homers and nine steals in 87 High-A games this year. [Buster Olney]
  • 10:15am: Once the Yankees wrap up the Chapman trade, they’re expected to continue sifting through trade offers for Andrew Miller. It’s not a guarantee they’ll move him. They’re going to do their due diligence and see what teams put on the table. [Olney]
  • 10:15am: The Giants are getting “radio silence” from the Yankees with regards to their relievers. We heard a few days ago that the Yankees don’t consider San Francisco a good trade match because they’re short on high-end prospects. [Hank Schulman]
  • 11:05am: One of the other two pieces in the Chapman trade is outfield prospect Billy McKinney. He was a first rounder in 2013 and I remember the Yankees being connected to him prior to the draft. McKinney went to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija/Addison Russell trade. [Sahadev Sharma]
  • 11:29am: The Yankees have been pushing Ivan Nova in trade talks. That’s not a surprise. They shopped him over the winter, and Nova will be a free agent after the season, so it’s better to get something for him now than nothing after the season. [Olney]
  • 4:10pm: The Chapman trade is official. It’s Chapman for Torres, Warren, Billy McKinney, and Rashad Crawford. That’s a hell of a deal.

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

Update: Yanks moving closer to trading Aroldis Chapman

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Sunday, 7:52pm: The Yankees and Cubs are working on a deal that would send Chapman to Chicago for top prospect Gleyber Torres plus a second piece (!), report Jon Heyman and Buster Olney. Apparently the Cubbies want Chapman to agree to an extension before consummating a trade. Sounds like the deal could be completed as soon as tomorrow.

Sunday, 1:58pm: Jack Curry, who will inevitably break the Chapman trade news, says nothing is imminent and the Yankees are still mulling offers. For what it’s worth, John Harper says Hal Steinbrenner gave the okay to deal Chapman before the Giants series. Here’s the latest:

  • The Cubs are “strong” in the mix for Chapman, says Ken Rosenthal. The Giants, Dodgers, Nationals, and Indians are all involved too. That sounds like a last minute leak from the Yankees to get someone to raise their offer. He’s currently on the DL with a minor shoulder injury and is due back soon.
  • The Yankees have interest in Nats righty Joe Ross, reports Jon Heyman. One source told him there is “no chance” they’ll trade Ross for a rental though. Here’s my offseason Scouting the Market post on Ross.
  • Keith Law hears the Yankees would get righty Erick Fedde, righty Koda Glover, and a third piece if the deal with the Nationals goes through. That is a lot. Here is MLB.com’s Nationals top 30 prospects list so you can familiarize yourself with those guys.
  • The Yankees “love” Cubs shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, according to Buster Olney. I wrote about Torres in our Scouting the Market: Cubs post a few days ago.

Sunday, 12:41am ET: Rosenthal says a trade is not necessarily imminent. The Yankees are preparing to wrap-up the process though. I guess that means they’re sorting through final offers and things like that.

Saturday, 10:38pm ET: The Yankees are telling teams they are close to trading Aroldis Chapman and will hold on to Andrew Miller, reports Ken Rosenthal. There’s no word on where Chapman may be heading or when a deal may be completed. For what it’s worth, the Nationals have been connected to him most frequently.

Following Saturday’s loss, the Yankees are now 49-48 on the season and 7.5 games back in the AL East. They’re 4.5 games back of a wildcard spot with four teams ahead of them. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at 8.3% as of this writing, which should have the team firmly in sell mode. I’m not sure what else ownership needs to see.

Now, that said, trading Chapman would make sense even if the Yankees were in the race. They were able to get him at a very discounted rate due to his pending domestic violence suspension, and now that the suspension has been served, they can market him as a full price rental elite reliever. That’s pretty darn valuable and should fetch a lot.

In addition to the Nationals, the Rangers, Cubs, and Giants have all been connected to Chapman to some degree. Washington tried to acquire Aroldis in the offseason following his domestic dispute incident, but the Yankees beat them to the punch. Nationals manager Dusty Baker had Chapman with the Reds and has reportedly been pushing to acquire him.

As for keeping Miller, it’s certainly a sound strategy considering his general awesomeness and the two years left on his affordable contract. It’s been reported that the Yankees will have to be blown away to move him. That could still happen before the deadline, it’s not like there’s a shortage of teams in on Miller. We’ll see. The trade deadline is one week from Monday.

Trade Deadline Notes: Nats, Sabathia, Blue Jays, Pineda

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The trade deadline is now only nine days away, and according to FanGraphs, the Yankees have a 9.6% chance to make the postseason. That’s not very good. Buster Olney (video link) said yesterday Aroldis Chapman could be dealt as soon as this weekend, though I’m not sure I buy that. “The Yankees are playing it smart and will likely take it to the end to get the most,” said an official with another team to George King. Here are the latest trade rumblings.

Nats make top prospects off-limits

Despite their interest in Chapman, Barry Svrluga reports the Nationals will not trade top prospects Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, or Reynaldo Lopez for the hard-throwing lefty. Every team says they’re unwilling to trade their top prospects this time of year, so I wouldn’t make too much of this. It’s just posturing.

If the Nationals are serious about getting Chapman (or Andrew Miller), they’ll have to put one of those guys on the table. Lopez seems most likely, mostly because he’s the lowest rated prospect of the bunch. He’s not bad — Baseball America had him 48th in their midseason top 100 — the other guys are just really, really good. Based on what Miller fetched two years ago, I think Lopez would be a fair return for Chapman.

Blue Jays scouted Sabathia

The Blue Jays had a scout watching CC Sabathia‘s most recent start, reports Jon Heyman. George King says the Astros, Mets, Marlins, and Cubs also had scouts on hand Thursday. It’s worth noting Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was in the Indians’ front office all those years Sabathia was in Cleveland, including most as GM. There’s a bit of a connection there.

We heard Sabathia has been drawing some interest the other day, though I have a hard time believing it’s serious interest. I’m guessing it’s more “if you eat a ton of money we’ll take him off your hands” interest. Also, an intradivision trade with the Blue Jays probably isn’t happening, even though you could argue trading Sabathia to an AL East rival would be good for the Yankees.

Giants, Astros, Cubs among teams to scout Pineda

The Giants, Astros, Cubs, and “a ton” of others were on hand to see Michael Pineda‘s most recent start, report Jon Morosi and Chris Cotillo. Pineda had his first scoreless start of the season Wednesday, and he had maybe his nastiest slider of the season too. As Katie pointed out in Yankeemetrics, Pineda generated 18 swings and misses with his slider that game, the most by any pitcher in baseball in 2016.

The Yankees are at the point where they have to figure out what they want to do with Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi. Do they want to keep them long-term? If so, they should start thinking about extensions. If they don’t want them long-term, then they should trade them soon to get as much back as possible. I understand waiting and hoping they rebuild value in the second half, but I think it’s more likely they’ll lose value going forward between the injury risk and being closer to free agency.