2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Saturday

(Brian Blanco/Getty)
(Brian Blanco/Getty)

The trade deadline is creeping closer and closer. It’s less than 55 hours away right now, and so far the Yankees have made just one deal, the Aroldis Chapman swap. To be fair, it’s not like a ton of trades are happening around the league. There’s been one or two a day this last week, and none have been particularly exciting. Chapman’s been by far the best player traded this week.

Once again, we’re going to keep track of the day’s trade rumblings right here. Or try to, anyway. I’m going to be running around all day today, so I can’t promise prompt updates, but I’ll do my best. The Yankees tend to keep things close to the vest anyway. It’s not like the last few days have been full of rumors. Here are Friday’s rumblings and here’s what’s happening today. All time stamps are ET.

  • 10:00am: Brian Cashman has been given the thumbs up to trade Ivan Nova, but not yet Michael Pineda or Nathan Eovaldi. Ownership is still hanging on to that “this team can contend!” silliness. Hopefully it’s just posturing. [Joel Sherman]
  • 10:00am: The Yankees and Indians have discussed all sorts of trade scenarios, including some involving Carlos Beltran. Cleveland doesn’t have much payroll wiggle room though and that’s an obstacle. In my opinion the Yankees should be very willing to eat money if it means getting better players in return. Flex that financial muscle. [Jon Heyman]
  • 10:00am: Brian Cashman told the Giants very early on that they didn’t have the prospects to get Chapman or Andrew Miller. Harsh? Maybe. But it’s good to get that out there early rather than string the Giants along and waste everyone’s time. [Sherman]
  • 1:53pm: The Yankees are gauging Brian McCann‘s market and the Braves have interest in a reunion. New York wants real prospects in return and doesn’t want to eat money. The Braves, naturally, want the Yankees to eat some of the $34M owed to McCann from 2017-18 and give up lower rated prospects. McCann has a no-trade clause but is from the Atlanta area, so he may be willing to waive it to go home and help the Braves open their new park next season. [Jon Heyman, Buster Olney, Joel Sherman]
  • 1:58pm: The Rangers have touched base with the Yankees about Beltran, but talks don’t appear to be serious. Texas lost Prince Fielder to season-ending neck surgery a few days ago, creating an opening at DH. [T.R. Sullivan]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Friday

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

As you may have heard, a fake rumor was going around last night that Carlos Beltran had been traded to the Indians. Actually, it wasn’t a fake rumor, per se. It came from this MLB.com article with a bunch of trade suggestions, and Twins people put the deals up on the dang Target Field scoreboard. The internet was abuzz for a few minutes, but no, there was no Beltran trade. Not yet, anyway.

The trade deadline is less than 80 hours away now, and since the Aroldis Chapman trade earlier this week, things have been rather quite around the Yankees. That’s not all that uncommon. They tend to keep things close to the vest. You can read through Thursday’s rumors right here. There’s not too many of them though. Once again, we’re going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related trade rumors right here, so check back often. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30am: The Rangers have remained in contact with the Yankees about Ivan Nova as well as Andrew Miller and Beltran. Possibly Michael Pineda too. Texas is short on pitching, and they just lost Prince Fielder to season-ending neck surgery, so they have a hole at DH too. [Joel Sherman]
  • 1:39pm: The Nationals are believed to be willing to trade Lucas Giolito for Andrew Miller, straight up. This seems like a leak designed to get someone else to blink. Who? I’m not sure. [Jon Morosi]
  • 1:56pm: Word is the Yankees would need “three times as much” as they received for Chapman to trade Miller. That doesn’t mean they want 12 players in return (duh), they want higher quality players. That makes sense. The Cubs got one postseason run from Chapman. Whoever gets Miller gets three postseason runs. [Jon Heyman]
  • 2:15pm: The Yankees would not trade Miller for Giolito straight up. I’m in the minority, but I agree with that. The Yankees are right to demand more. Giolito’s great, but he’s not some kind of generational talent, and his performance in the minors hasn’t matched the stuff. [Heyman]
  • 2:22pm: If the Nationals are willing to trade Giolito for Miller, they’ve yet to approach the Yankees about it. [Sherman]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

If the Yankees aren’t going to continue selling, then they need to be smart about buying

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Even with last night’s disappointing loss, the Yankees are now 11-6 in their last 17 games, all of which have been played against good teams. They’ve have won series against the Astros, Giants, Orioles, and Indians in recent weeks. Three first place teams and arguably the hottest team in baseball. Who saw this coming? No one.

The recent hot streak has seemingly thrown a wrench into the team’s trade deadline plans. Rather than an all-out sell job, there’s now at least some justification for keeping the band together and going for it. The Yankees are only four games out of a wildcard spot, after all. They have ten games left with both the Red Sox and Blue Jays, the two teams sitting in the wildcard spots at the moment.

The Aroldis Chapman trade was a special circumstance. I always thought he was going to be moved no matter what. His trade value was far too great to let him walk for nothing more than a draft pick after the season. The trade showed that. The Yankees bought super low and sold high. It was a perfect baseball move. Ivan Nova figures to go before the deadline, but that’ll be a fairly insignificant move.

Other key players, most notably Carlos Beltran and Andrew Miller, seem more likely to stay put now thanks to this recent winning streak. Do I still think the Yankees should sell? Yeah, I do. I’m not saying give guys away, but accept the postseason probably isn’t happening — FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 9.0% as of this writing — and buy for the future by trading away veterans. It’s what smart teams do.

If the Yankees don’t continue selling, then I think they should look to buy at the deadline, albeit in a conservative way. I’m not saying they should go out and trade top prospects for big name players just because they’re big name players. If there’s a trade to be made for, say, a young starting pitcher under control long-term, then yeah, it’s worth looking into even if it costs top prospects. That’s always the case though, not just at the trade deadline.

Anyway, the 2011 Pirates are the perfect example of the type of buying I’m talking about. The Pirates were 54-51 on the morning of the 2011 trade deadline and 3.5 games back of a postseason spot, so they were in a similar situation as the Yankees right now. Pittsburgh had a young team and was in the process of trying to build something sustainable, which the Yankees are trying to do right now as they wait for their big contracts to expire.

Rather than spend big at the deadline, the Pirates took small bites and added Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee in minor trades. They got Ludwick from the Padres in a cash deal and Lee from the Orioles for a non-top 30 prospect. Both guys were veteran players in the final years of their contracts who filled clear needs for Pittsburgh. They bought, but in a smart way that didn’t compromise what they were trying to build. Ultimately, the 2011 Pirates faded out of the race, which is something the Yankees could very well do in August and September.

That’s that kind of buying I’d like to see the Yankees do if they don’t continue to sell before the deadline, and let’s face it, it’s looking less and less likely they’ll sell the longer this hot streak continues. (They’ll play three against the last place Rays this weekend too. That’s not good for #TeamSell.) The Yankees clearly need another bat — they need like three bats, but one thing at a time — and another pitcher wouldn’t hurt, either starter or reliever.

Lind. (Presswire)
Lind. (Presswire)

How can they fill those needs on the cheap, a la the 2010 Pirates? That’s the hard part. Here’s the list of upcoming free agents. Any super cheap veterans look appealing? The Mariners would probably give Adam Lind (87 wRC+) away at this point so they could get Dan Vogelbach in the lineup, and Lind would potentially give the Yankees a DH alternative to Alex Rodriguez. Lind always seemed to rake in Yankee Stadium when he was with the Blue Jays.

I’ve mentioned Danny Valencia before and he’s another possibility. He’s having a productive year (126 wRC+) but the Athletics are cutting back on his playing time so they can get a look at some younger players. Susan Slusser recently reported there’s so little trade interest in Valencia — supposedly he’s a bit of a clubhouse cancer, but who knows — that he might get designated for assignment. He’s not a rental, but he is non-tender-able after the season. That all makes Valencia a potential cheap upgrade at first base or DH.

The pitching market is a little tougher to decipher because there’s so little available that even replacement level arms like Lucas Harrell are fetching a top 15-ish org prospect. Luke Hochevar probably won’t come cheap. Same with Joe Smith. What about Carlos Torres? The Yankees had interest in him before the season and the rubber-armed reliever has a 2.90 ERA (3.92 FIP) in 49.2 innings with the Brewers. Does Torres satisfy the “better than Swarzak” criteria? Maybe!

The names of specific targets aren’t all that important. The plan of attack is what really matters. If the Yankees don’t sell any more, then fine. I won’t like it but there’s nothing I can do about it. In that case they should look to bring in some help to improve their chances, and do it in a way that doesn’t hurt the future. The Pirates showed it can be done back in 2011. I’m not saying it’ll be easy, but it can be done.

I think the worst thing the Yankees could do at the deadline is nothing. Not selling and not buying, even conservatively. No improvements for the future, no improvements for the present. Yuck. Standing still would be a big letdown. I think the Yankees should look to move guys like Beltran and Miller and whoever else before Monday, but if the recent hot streak has ownership wanting to contend, then it’s up to the front office to bring in reinforcements that don’t hurt the future of the club.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Thursday

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Earlier this week the Yankees swung a blockbuster trade with the Cubs, sending Aroldis Chapman to Chicago for Adam Warren and three prospects. There were an awful lot of rumors and buildup to that trade — that’s a Theo Epstein hallmark — but things have been fairly quiet since. That’s not unusual for the Yankees. Their moves tend to come out of nowhere. The Chapman trade was the exception.

Of course, the Yankees are also said to be on the fence about selling, and their recent 11-6 hot streak hasn’t exactly helped matters. It’s making me a little nervous. The Yankees are going to make some important decisions these next four days, decisions that really impact the future of the franchise. Anyway, here are Wednesday’s rumors, and once again, we’ll keep track of the day’s trade rumors right here, so make sure you check back often. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30pm: The Yankees will move Ivan Nova no matter what before the deadline. The team is not planning to make him the qualifying offer after the season, so they want to get something for him at the deadline rather than nothing after the season. The pitching market is so bleak right now that I think Nova might actually fetch something halfway decent. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:25am: The Yankees have called the White Sox about Chris Sale multiple times. Chicago wants five top prospects for their ace lefty, and thanks to the haul from the Aroldis Chapman trade, the Yankees just might have the pieces to get it done. [Jon Heyman]
  • 12:04pm: One Yankees-connected person said there is “no chance” they trade Andrew Miller. The team is listening to offers, but their asking price is “prohibitive.” Given what they received for Chapman, I can’t even imagine what it would take to get Miller. [Heyman]
  • 2:09pm: The Yankees asked the Nationals for a four-player package built around young pitching for Chapman. First they asked for Lucas Giolito, and when Washington said no, they asked for Joe Ross. The Nationals said no again. [Heyman]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Wednesday

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The Yankees sure do know how to make things complicated, don’t they? Rather than continue to fade out of the postseason race and into obscurity, the Yankees have gone 11-5 in their last 16 games to climb to within four games of the second wildcard spot. There are still three teams ahead of them, but hey, that’s better than six. FanGraphs put their postseason odds at 10.1% as of this writing.

Two days ago the Yankees made what can no doubt be described as a “sellers” trade when they shipped Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Adam Warren and three minors leaguers. Will they continue to sell pieces before Monday’s trade deadline? Or will the recent hot streak prompt them to go out and add help? I guess we’ll find out over the next five days. Here are Tuesday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of the day’s Yankees’ rumors right here, so check back often for updates. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30am: The Yankees seek big league ready players in any Andrew Miller trade. They were willing to take true minor league prospects for Chapman, but not Miller. They want players who can help right now. That’s smart. There’s no urgency to trade Miller given his contract situation. Someone’s going to have to blow them away. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: In addition to the Marlins, the Rangers are also in the mix for Ivan Nova. The Yankees are said to be looking to move Nova next now that Chapman’s gone. He’s a rental and he hasn’t pitched all that well, but there are so few quality starters on the market that I bet they get something halfway decent for him. [George King]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

As great as he’s been, Yankees shouldn’t consider Beltran a qualifying offer candidate

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

With eleven wins in their last 16 games, the Yankees are a season-high four games over .500 and firmly on the winning side of the ledger. They’ve had a winning record for a grand total of eleven days this season, believe it or not. It would be even fewer than that without Carlos Beltran‘s brilliance. He’s been, by far, the Yankees’ best and most consistent hitter this season.

Even with those eleven wins in 16 games, the Yankees have gained only one game in the wildcard race. That’s all. One silly little game. They were five games back before this 11-5 stretch and they’re four games back today. The Yankees already traded away Aroldis Chapman and they should continue to sell at the trade deadline. And if they do, Beltran figures to be one of their more valuable chips. He’s a productive veteran bat who can help any contender.

The alternative is keeping Beltran, attempting to make a run in the second half, then making him the qualifying offer after the season when he becomes a free agent. That would net the Yankees a supplemental first round pick in the 2017 draft should Carlos sign elsewhere. This assumes the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t change or eliminate the qualifying offer system first. I don’t think that’ll happen though.

The qualifying offer sounds like a fine backup plan, but I don’t see Beltran as a candidate to receive one. Or at least I don’t think the Yankees should tender him the offer. It’s easy to understand why the Yankees would do so, but I see such a move as almost all downside for one big reason: Beltran will probably take it. The qualifying offer will be worth $17M or so, and who is offering that to Carlos as a free agent, even across two years? Teams are shying away from older, one-dimensional sluggers nowadays.

The Yankees have money even though like to pretend they don’t. Bringing Beltran back next season on an expensive one-year deal doesn’t seem like such a bad thing, especially with the way he’s hitting this year, but I see three problems with it.

1. He’s probably not going to hit like this again. Beltran is defying the odds this season. He’s hitting .309/.350/.554 (138 OPS+) with 21 homers in 95 games overall, and amazingly, I don’t think he’s had one slump all year. He just keeps hitting. It’s impressive. Now let’s look at a list of players comparable to Beltran since the 1961 expansion, meaning 39-year-old everyday outfielders who were above-average at the plate:

2004 Barry Bonds: 263 OPS+ (lol)
1970 Willie Mays: 140 OPS+
1985 Reggie Jackson: 135 OPS+
1991 Dave Winfield: 120 OPS+
2004 Steve Finley: 109 OPS+
2007 Luis Gonzalez: 104 OPS+

That’s the complete list. Six players since 1961 and Beltran’s about to make it seven. And remember, every single one of those guys except Gonzalez was allowed to use amphetamines, or greenies as they’re called in baseball circles. Greenies were banned in 2005, so 39-year-old outfielders can’t turn to them for that extra boost of energy.

Those are the players like Beltran right now, 39-year-old everyday outfielders. What about 40-year-olds? Beltran turns 40 in April, so if the Yankees bring him back next year, that’s what they’re getting, a 40-year-old outfielder. Here’s the list of everyday outfielders who were above-average at the plate during their age 40 season during the expansion era:

1971 Willie Mays: 158 OPS+
1999 Rickey Henderson: 128 OPS+
2007 Kenny Lofton: 105 OPS+

Three players and two of them were among the greatest players to ever live. Know what else is crazy? Only one other outfielder even had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title during their age 40 season since 1961. Jeff Conine did it in 2006, when he had an 86 OPS+. Heck, let’s drop the outfield part. Only eleven 40-year-old players have produced at a league average clip since 1961, and most of them had the benefit of greenies. Here’s the list.

Maybe Beltran will be one of those outliers. Should the Yankees bank on that? I don’t think so. You needn’t look beyond New York’s roster for examples of an older player being productive one year and a liability the next. Mark Teixeira‘s and Alex Rodriguez‘s declines are a big reason why the Yankees have spent only those eleven days in first place.

2. The roster construction will be a mess again. The Yankees are stuck either playing Beltran in right field or sitting A-Rod on the bench at the moment. It’s not a great situation at all. It’s almost like a 24-man roster. The roster construction is so bad right now. The Yankees lack flexibility with the bench and DH spot, and if they bring Beltran back, that will continue.

I suppose they could release A-Rod to clear up the logjam, but I’m sorry, I’m going to have to see that to believe it. As long as there are home run records to be chased — Alex is four away from 700 and 18 away from tying Babe Ruth — there’s money to be made and tickets to be sold. Let’s face it, the Yankees might need all the attendance and ratings help they can get next year. A-Rod puts butts in the seats.

(Free Adams/Times Leader)
Judge. (Free Adams/Times Leader)

3. The Yankees need to start getting younger. The Yankees currently have four legitimate outfield prospects in Triple-A: Aaron Judge, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, and Jake Cave. All four are among the 25 best prospects in the organization. That doesn’t include Cesar Puello, a former top prospect who is playing extremely well in Triple-A after being picked up as a minor league free agent. It also doesn’t include Aaron Hicks in MLB or Dustin Fowler and Billy McKinney in Double-A.

The Yankees have a lot of impressive young outfielders at the upper levels of the minors and that’s awesome. They should be thrilled to have so many young options, and in the cases of Judge and Williams, high upside options. The Yankees need to start making room for these guys and bringing Beltran back doesn’t accomplish that at all. In fact, it’s gotten to the point now where the Yankees need to think about clearing two outfield spots next year to make room for these guys. Let Beltran go and trade Brett Gardner. That sort of thing. (I’m guessing they’re stuck with Jacoby Ellsbury.)

* * *

This would all be rendered moot if Beltran declined the qualifying offer, but I think the chances of that are so small. Beltran said at the All-Star Game that he wants to play two more years, so he’s not thinking about retirement, and who’s going to give up a draft pick to sign a 40-year-old outfielder or DH, let alone offer close to $17M? If the Yankees make the qualifying offer, accepting it would be Beltran’s best shot at gainful employment next year.

There’s too much downside to bringing Beltran back next season — he’s likely to decline, the roster will be inflexible, the young outfielders will be blocked, etc. — for the qualifying offer to be a serious consideration. Hopefully the Yankees realize this and decide to cash in on Beltran’s big season by trading him for a prospect or two at the deadline, rather than keep him and lose him for nothing after the season. Or worse, bring him back in 2017. This is a classic example of letting a player go a year early rather than a year late.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Tuesday

(Elsa/Getty)
(Elsa/Getty)

Yesterday afternoon the Yankees made their biggest trade in quite some time, sending Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Adam Warren and three prospects. One of those prospects, shortstop Gleyber Torres, ranks among the top 25-ish prospects in baseball. It’s a significant haul for a rental reliever, even one as good as Chapman, and it very well might be the team’s biggest move at this year’s trade deadline.

“This one move doesn’t necessarily create a domino effect of selling, and it doesn’t prevent a domino effect of buying,” said Brian Cashman to reporters on yesterday’s trade conference call. “This is an easy call, and this was the right call. Easy because we traded from an area of strength, and we are excited about the players that we received for someone that obviously was only under control for two more months.”

With Chapman gone, the focus figures to shift to the team’s other rental players, namely Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova. Andrew Miller‘s name has been out there as well, ditto basically everyone in the rotation other than Masahiro Tanaka. Here are Monday’s trade deadline rumors. We’ll again keep track of today’s rumors right here, in this one post, so check back often. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30am: Trading Nova is the next priority, and the Marlins are among the interested teams. “They’re shooting high, but it’s early. They know what the pitching market looks like right now and they’re trying to capitalize on that,” said a source to Mark Feinsand. I guess there’s a chance Nova has already thrown his last pitch as a Yankee.
  • 9:30am: Brett Gardner is a consideration for the Dodgers, though he is not atop their list of targets. Los Angeles is without Andre Ethier (leg) and Trayce Thompson (back), plus Yasiel Puig isn’t hitting, so they need outfield help. Howie Kendrick in left isn’t going too well. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: The Nationals were “deep in conversations” with the Yankees about Chapman before he was traded to the Cubs. They didn’t put enough on the table though, so to the Cubs he went. The Nats could change gears and focus on Miller now. [Buster Olney]
  • 10:21am: The Nats declared Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Reynaldo Lopez off-limits in Chapman trade talks. That’s a lot of untouchables. The Indians were “seemingly” unwilling to part with top outfield prospects Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier. [Ken Rosenthal]
  • 10:51am: Rival clubs say the Yankees are buying and selling, and are looking for controllable pitching in particular. “We’re not playing in a narrow-minded world. We want to be open to any and all ideas. Buy, sell, long, short. It’s in our best interests to be creative and open-minded, not just now,” said Cashman. [Ken Rosenthal]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.