Every other week, Jamie O’Grady channels the 2005-version of Michael Kay by “Looking Back. Looking Forward.” to get you caught up on what just was, and what soon will be with the New York Yankees.

LOOKING BACK: So what did you miss?

One of my favorite movies of all-time is undoubtedly Bill Murray’s “Groundhog Day.” In the moviefilm, an immortal Phil Connors – slowly realizing that he’s reliving the same day over and over – advises the innkeeper that the “chance of departure is around 80%…75-80.”

Now, you may be wondering what this has to do with a supposedly Yankee-centric column, but there’s an obvious connection here to the total disaster which is Mr. Allen James Burnett. We already know that watching AJ pitch feels like deja vu all over again, yet despite only marginally improved results of late, the likelihood that Burnett is kept off the postseason roster feels much like Connors’ chances of leaving Punxsutawney without running into Ned Ryerson. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Wanna put the oft-ridiculed Yankee hurler’s 2011 statistics into some perspective? Check out this most recent 16-start sample size:

You don’t have to be John Sterling to recognize Starter B; he’s the aforementioned AJ Burnett. Player A? None other than Javier Vazquez. Yes, that Javier Vazquez. Really, is there any greater insult than being told “Dude, your ERA is like 4 runs higher than Javy Vazquez‘s, Bruh!” (UPDATE: Cy Vaz tossed a 5-hit shutout Friday night)

And no, despite my Burnetterrific frustration, I’m not planning on bathing with my toaster oven anytime soon.

Where in the world is Alex Rodriguez? Since returning from the disabled list on August 21, ARod has compiled just 36 at-bats (with two home runs), putting an exclamation point on his injury-riddled and disappointing 2011 campaign. Surely, $25m+ doesn’t go as far as it used to, what with the economy and all, but come on.

He’s allegedly still battling the worst jammed thumb in history, and his impending return to the lineup tonight – though welcome – doesn’t leave a ton of games for him to get his act together for the postseason.

Seriously, does anyone remember the ARod who closed April on pace for .290/41/146 this season? Yeah, neither does Cameron Diaz, apparently. I’m not judging, by the way. Perhaps ditching that insanely hot “distraction” will pay immediate Jeterian dividends.

Oh, some guy named Mariano crossed the 600-save threshold. And some guy named Jesus saved the franchise. We all just better pray that Joe Girardi doesn’t ask Montero to sacrifice himself. The worldwide religious implications are enough to make one’s head explode.

What we learned:

9/02 – 9/04 v. TOR – I keep waiting for a NY Post headline which reads Ivan the Terrible, but Yankee phenom Ivan Nova just won’t allow it. He continues to lead all big-league rookies with 15 wins, and he hasn’t suffered a loss since way back on June 3. Nova is 7-0 since rejoining the club on July 31, and his 3.32 ERA over that time is actually much less impressive than his 1.14 WHIP (1.37 for his career) over the same span. Nova may not be able to retain his newfound-poise in a playoff atmosphere, but there’s no doubt his pure stuff is good enough to go head-to-head against almost any other AL team’s No. 2 starter. Prediction: NYY sweep series) (Actual: NYY sweep series)

9/05 – 9/08 @ BAL – What a disappointment. It took Jesus Montero all of four Major League contests to hit two home runs in one game, which puts him just 66 games behind Babe Ruth for the all-time Yankee lead in multi-HR efforts. I’m guessin’ the son of God will catch the Babe sometime in 2013. Scott Proctor made his first appearance as a Yankee since July 23, 2007. Predictably, he served up a long ball. I hadn’t been this excited to hear the name Proctor on TV since he and Lt. Harris were slow dancing at the Blue Oyster Bar. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. (Prediction: NYY win 3-of-4) (Actual: NYY split series)

9/09 – 9/11 @ LAA – Somewhat lost amidst the local joy surrounding Boston’s injury-induced September-meltdown is the fact that the Yankees remain particularly vulnerable against certain other potential playoff-opponents. Case in point: the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County, California, U.S.A., Earth, Milky Way. Now just three games back of the AL West-leading Texas Rangers, the Angels - and their dominant 1-2 punch in Weaver/Haren - would be a lethal Yankee opponent in the ALDS. The Detroit Tigers – even with Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera & Co. – would be a better match-up for the Bombers. You might even be surprised to learn that Verlander is just 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA lifetime versus New York. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY lose 2-of-3)

9/12 – 9/14 @ SEA – Don’t look now, but Phil Hughes (5-5) has held opponents to two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. He even managed to best the mighty King Felix in a Yankee win which saw Chris Dickerson take Hernandez deep for his first Major League home run. Dickerson can now retire tomorrow and still pick up chicks at will, although not at the Blue Oyster Bar. Not to be outdone by the aforementioned Montero, oft-hyped Yankee catching prospect Austin Romine collected his first big-league hit. At first glance, he looks very comfortable behind the plate. (Prediction: NYY sweep series) (Actual: NYY win 2-of-3)

LOOKING FORWARD: What can’t you miss?

Entering play tonight, Baseball Prospectus has the Yankees at 100% likely to make the playoffs (92% to win the AL East), so the remaining 14 regular season games are largely irrelevant aside from playoff seeding and setting up the starting rotation for the American League Divisional Series. What’s most important for New York over the next two weeks is the health and performance of ARod, who despite his 2011 disappearing act, remains an absolutely critical factor for the club’s chances at making the World Series.

It’s been readily apparent since Spring Training that the Yankee rotation was not going to be a team-strength, but even with the losses of Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, and Damaso Marte, the bullpen has been nothing short of dominant. In particular, David Robertson (1.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 95K/62IP) has had the kind of season that makes you wonder if Mariano Rivera‘s eventual replacement has been here all along.

And so it remains that formula – CC Sabathia, an elite offense, and a lock-down bullpen – which Brian Cashman hopes New York can ride all the way to its 28th World Championship.

What we expect to learn:

9/16 – 9/18 @ TOR – I really miss the original Blue Jay uniforms. Those badboys were awesome. Not much else to espouse about our friends from north of the border. They’re sporting a pedestrian 75-74 record, which makes sense given their above average lineup and well below average pitching staff. Ultimately, the Jays won’t be making any noise in the division until they find themselves an ace – no, not you, Brandon Morrow – and a closer who brings more to the table than a really questionable neck tattoo. I actually feel for the baseball fans in Toronto; to see your franchise trade away Doc Halladay and still support the team? That’s commendable. And stupid. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)

9/19 v. MIN – Looking for a sign that the Apocalypse is upon us? Well, for the first time in about 68 years, the Yankees will not be facing the Twins in the playoffs, which is probably a good thing for residents of St. Paul, considering the fact that New York seemingly never loses to Minnesota in the postseason. That said, I will miss seeing Joe Mauer’s abnormally girthy sideburns in October. (Prediction: NYY win makeup game)

9/20 – 9/22 v. TAM – Holy shizah, these are not your father’s Devil Rays! While the Red Sox have been imploding, the Rays have exploded, winning 9-of-12 and amazingly creeping to within three games of Boston in the AL Wild Card race. Make no mistake, despite losing half their roster in free agency, Tampa’s farm system is extremely well-stocked, particularly in the pitching department. Widely hailed as baseball’s best pitching prospect, Matt Moore was recently called up to bolster Tampa’s pen over the final 15 games. Keep an eye on him during this series, you’ll be seeing him torment the Yankees for many years to come. (Prediction: NYY split 4-game series)

9/23 – 9/25 v. BOS – Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon has not had a save opportunity since August 18, almost one month ago! Daniel Bard, the usually dominant Red Sox setup man, has compiled a 17.36 ERA and 2.35 WHIP thus far in September. Kevin Youklis is hitting .197 with two homers since August 1. In short, the team that everyone picked to win the division has utterly collapsed due to a combination of bad play, untimely injuries, and bunch of games against really good clubs. Might we hear some completely unjustified “Fire Tito” chants in Fenway Park before the season ends?  (Prediction: NYY lose 2-of-3)

9/26 – 9/28 @ TAM – There’s only so much I can say about the Rays in one column, but I happen to like Joe Maddon’s glasses. Also, BJ Upton needs a new batting stance. Every time I see his weirdo ankle-shimmy I want to throw something at the television. Finally, what is up with having actual stingrays in an aquarium at the ballpark? Didn’t we learn anything from the untimely death of Steve Irwin? Call me crazy, but when I attend a baseball game, the closest I want to come to sea life is plunking down $20 for mediocre sushi at Yankee Stadium. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)

Next stop…

And that’s all she wrote. I’ll see you back here in a fortnight, unless you follow me on Twitter, in which case I’ll see you every five seconds or so.

Every other week, Jamie O’Grady channels the 2005-version of Michael Kay by “Looking Back. Looking Forward.” to get you caught up on what just was, and what soon will be with the New York Yankees.

LOOKING BACK: So what did you miss?

If you’re anything like me, you missed having electricity for a while thanks to that little vixen, Irene. No power meant no access to the Interwebs, and no way to share my musings.

Call me crazy, but anytime a storm causes catastrophic flooding, and like, deaths and stuff, I expect at least a half-day off from work. Nevertheless, Axisa, Pawlikowski & Kabak LLP runs a pretty tight ship, so let’s get right to it, shall we?

What do you get when you cross a 2.5 game lead for the best record in the American League, a Major League-best +206 run differential, and a 100% probability of making the playoffs? The 2011 New York Yankees, that’s what.

It’s taken virtually five months – amidst all sorts of uncertainty, injuries and controversy (in other words, a typical Yankee season) – but the 2011 Bombers now appear focused, opportunistic and capable of doing whatever is necessary to win games. They can beat you with power (197 team-dongs are 24 more than any other club) or speed (3rd in MLB with 131 team-swipes), they’re patient as heck (537 team-walks), and they can pitch a little bit, too (3.71 team-ERA ranks 10th in all of baseball – Boston lags behind at 20th).

And as if going 8-2 over their last 10 games wasn’t enough, New York recently “added” two potentially lethal right-handed bats to its already potent lineup with the return of Alex Rodriguez and promotion of the highly-touted Jesus Montero. Yup, it’s ARod and a son of God to the rescue. Montero, whose batting stance is eerily Pujolsian, arrived last Thursday, and if the early returns are any indication (5-for13 with 2HR), the Yankee lineup will truly be without weak link come October.

So you say you’re the biggest Yankee fan in the world, but have you actually looked at the numbers being put up by Curtis Granderson this season?

Admittedly, even I was astounded when I gave his 2011 statistics a bit of a “how’s your father.”

 The Yankee All-Star is first in the American League in runs scored (125) and runs batted in (107), he’s second in home runs (38), total bases (291),  and triples (10), and he’s the first Yankees player since Mickey Mantle in 1955 to record at least 30 home runs and 10 triples in the same season. In fact, Granderson is just the 15th major league player since 1950 to achieve that feat.

In short, the man is having an historic campaign, and with all due respect to either Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez, it’s hard to argue there exists a finer example of “most valuable” than Granderson. Well, unless you’re throwing Justin Verlander into the mix.

My second stab at the prediction business didn’t go so great, as the Yankees somehow managed not to play that .800 baseball I had called for. The nerve. Whatever, they’re bound to meet my lofty goals at some point over the remainder of the season, right?

What we learned:

8/18 – 8/21 @ MIN – Just in case you missed it, Joe Mauer makes a helluva lot more money than you do, which is just a tad ironic given that he’s only managed to hit two home runs for the entire season. Apparently, Justin Morneau collects concussions like that dude from The Silence of the Lambs collects rare butterflies. The artists formerly known as The M&M Boys may be rapidly descending into Generation-K territory, although in fairness, none of the Mets’ trio ever won an MVP. Actually, rumor has it Bill Pulsipher is working for MVP Septic out of Schenectady. For a while there, it seemed like CC Sabathia had lost his moxie, but something happened in the 7th inning of his August 18th start when he retired Mauer, Morneau and Jim Thome. He’s been absolutely rolling ever since (3-0 with 36 Ks over 27.2 IP). (Prediction: NYY win 3-of-4) (Actual: NYY win 3-of-4)

8/23 – 8/25 v. OAK – What a long, strange trip it’s been for Yankee hurler Bartolo Colon. After a lengthy sabbatical – presumably training for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest – Colon and his 2011 revival has had been nothing short of amazing. Taking a page from Boston’s playbook, GM Brian Cashman struck gold with the HGH-enhanced Colon, but the joyride may finally be over. Since July 7, Colon is just 2-6, having rocked out to the tune of a 4.90 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .301 against him, and his strikeouts are down from where they were in the beginning of the season. It goes without saying that Colon’s 145IP in 2011 are by far most he’s thrown since 2005. Tire much? Oh, New York scored more in one game (22 runs) against the A’s than the Jets are expected to score in the first month of the upcoming NFL season. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY lose 2-of-3)

8/26 – 8/29 v. BAL – I’ve taken a lot of heat recently for dismissing Baltimore as some kind of minor league squad, so I decided to look deeper to try and find any redeeming qualities to the organization. Not including this season (84 losses already), the Orioles have averaged 91 losses per year since 1998. That’s not only dreadful, but it’s also patently inexcusable. Baltimore’s extended run of futility has coincided with high annual draft slots, yet there hasn’t been one impact player to come up through their system in the last decade. I’m sorry, but an allegedly juiced-up Brian Roberts isn’t exactly proof of organization competency. Moving on… (Prediction: NYY sweep series) (Actual: NYY lose 2-of-3 / rain-shortened 5-game series*) 

8/30 – 9/1 @ BOS – Yes, New York took two of three games. And yes, CC Sabathia proved he can actually beat the Red Sox. But for me, perhaps the more important take away is the sense that Mariano Rivera‘s lights-out-ed-ness is becoming less and less evident this season. The numbers say otherwise (his 7.43 K/BB ratio is almost twice his career average of 4.03), but I cannot remember seeing Mo experience such a consistent loss of command from one outing to the next. Maybe his stuff remains so great that location doesn’t matter as much as it would to some other aging closer, but my gut tells me that the long-feared (and oft-disproven) twilight of Rivera’s career has already begun. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)  (Actual: NYY win 2-of-3) 

LOOKING FORWARD: What can’t you miss?

There are not a lot of unanswered questions at this point in the season, but the Yankee rotation continues to be one of them. Just when you think AJ Burnett’s carcass is finally ready to be cremated, he goes and tosses 5.1 serviceable innings in Fenway Park and completely redeems himself! Armed with a supposedly new, Larry Rothchild-inspired delivery, the enigmatic Burnett is going to have to show those kinds of results (and more) to be given any consideration for the playoff roster, let alone the playoff rotation.

On the bright side, at least the regular season’s conclusion means we won’t have to sit through three more months of Girardi promising to go back to a 5-man rotation.

And what of young Mr. Montero? We already know that John Sterling jumped the shark some decades ago, but his home run call for Montero was positively ungodly. Whatever, the coming of Jesus has been a long time… uhh, coming, and the smart money says that barring a complete September-implosion, Montero will be (and should be) the Yankee playoff-DH.

Mariano Rivera has amassed 597 saves over his illustrious career, and despite my unsubstantiated assertion that the inevitable end may finally near, 600 saves is nothing to sneeze at. Sure, the save statistic is oft-maligned (maybe rightfully so), but there’s no denying that Mariano’s brilliance is only slightly more amazing than his longevity. Here’s hoping he saves 600 more. Or at least 60.

It seems unfathomable, but Alex Rodriguez is finally flying under the radar in New York. Well, almost. While Granderson, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and to a lesser extent, Nick Swisher, continue to do the heavy lifting, you can take it to the bank that ARod will play a critical role in the success or failure of New York’s postseason aspirations. Rodiguez’s surgically-repaired knee should be fully healed by October, and I’m guessing that mid-season DL-stint will serve him well from a stamina perspective. 

What we expect to learn:

9/02 – 9/04 v. TOR – Sure, this series already happened, but I promise you my prediction was made before the four-game series commenced.  Check out this absolutely douche’alicious photo of Toronto phenom Brett Lawrie, and if that’s not enough of a reason to hate on him, he’ll only be tormenting Yankee pitching for the next six years or so before Cashman purchases the rights to his everlasting soul. Brandon Morrow and AJ Burnett should rent an apartment together and star in an ESPN2 reality series. They can call it “All Arms, No Brains.” Here’s the thing, Gents; when you throw 95+ mph, it’s a good idea to aim for that little thingy they call the strike zone. (Prediction: NYY sweep series) 

9/05 – 9/08 @ BAL – Oh Lord, these guys again? Seriously, how much can one man honestly be expected to write about this team? In fairness, the O’s did make an abnormally stellar move during the offseason, acquiring SS JJ Hardy from the Twins for a pair of minor leaguers. All he’s done this year is put up 26 homers and a .810 OPS. (Prediction: NYY win 3-of-4) 

9/09 – 9/11 @ LAA – Have you heard of a dude named Mark Trumbo? Well, there’s a really good chance that Trumbo – I really hope his teammates have nicknamed him the “Rusty Trombo” – wins the AL Rookie of the Year Award. He’s put up 26HR and 80RBI  over 132 games, and he’s sure to garner enough votes to run neck-and-neck with Yankee starter Ivan Nova. The Angels have pulled to within 2.5 games of the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (2 games back in the loss column), so you know they’ll be plenty motivated this weekend with New York coming to town. Oh, the Yanks get to face Jered Weaver (16-7, 2.49ERA) and Dan Haren (14-8, 3.20ERA), too. Joy! (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) 

9/12 – 9/14 @ SEA – For fans of the Seattle Mariners, it’s all about baby steps. Like being on-pace for “just” 90 losses this year after 2010′s epic 101-loss campaign. Also on the plus side, Chone Figgins’ terrible four-year contract is almost halfway finished! Want to know how bad things are in the Pacific Northwest? Ichiro, a once-in-a-lifetime talent, is batting just .273, and he leads the team. At least Seattle still has an awesome stadium and cool uniforms.  And I’m pretty sure everyone who lives there hangs out with Eddie Vedder. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) 

And that’s all she wrote. I’ll see you back here in a fortnight, unless you follow me on Twitter, in which case I’ll see you every five seconds or so.

Every other week, Jamie O’Grady channels the 2005-version of Michael Kay by “Looking Back. Looking Forward.” to get you caught up on what just was, and what soon will be with the New York Yankees.

LOOKING BACK: So what did you miss?

Did you know that after last night’s win against the Minnesota Twins, the Yankees have now won 9745 games in franchise history? Coincidentally, that’s roughly the amount of times that I yawned watching the ‘Derek Jeter: 3K’ documentary on HBO recently.

Seriously, could the El Capitan be any more boring? I’ve experienced Nilla wafers less bland than Jeter’s personality. No. 2 values his privacy, but I was under the impression that guy’s got an edge, Baby. Not so much, but what he does have is Minka Kelly (safe for work) and a .344 (44-for-128) batting average since securing his 3,000th hit on July 9. My sources tell me the ‘DJ4K’ sequel is already in pre-production planning.

The ghost of Jorge Posada lives on! In the body of… Jorge Posada. Mere days after being unceremoniously demoted from the DH-slot – going 0-for-2 on the basepaths thus far in 2011 finally forced Joe Girardi’s hand - the old Yankee catcher erupted with an unlikely 6-RBI game, his first such effort since 2006.

If only Posada could somehow bottle that fiery intensity and pour it into a sippy-cup for AJ Burnett, whose nine wins this season have cost the Yankees roughly $1.83m apiece. Maybe we’re all being too hard on AJ. After all, it can’t be easy to throw strikes when everyone keeps mistaking you for someone named Beavis. In his defense, Burnett did finally manage to win a game during the month of August – he had been 0-8 with a 7.18 ERA over 13 starts as a Yankee – by “scattering” 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings against the Royals earlier this week. Good times.

My first stab at the prediction business didn’t go so well, as the Yankees only managed to go 6-5 over their last four series. I had called for 10-2, although in my defense, one game was postponed. More importantly, New York is now in sole possession of first place in the AL East, and they are also 9 and 10.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay and Los Angeles, respectively, in the Wild-Card race.

Oh, if you missed Rivera’s media comments after his recent ineffective patch, you didn’t hear the most eloquent and accountable player in any professional sport today. His ability to compartmentalize his successes and failures, while keeping the larger picture in perspective, is probably the most overlooked secret to his success. Quite frankly, and don’t call me Shirley, not only will we never see the likes of Mo on any diamond again, but we’re highly unlikely to see his equal off it either.

What we learned:

8/5 – 8/7 @ BOS – Ugh. When you rally from behind to beat your division rival’s ace in a series opener, you usually feel pretty good about your chances that weekend. Unfortunately, New York’s own ace, CC Sabathia, now sports an 0-4 record and a 7.20 ERA against the Red Sox, which kind of stinks and stuff. It’s a good thing Sabathia is was, like, virtually undefeated against every other Major League club. Also on the bright side, the Yankee bullpen ahead of Mariano Rivera (more on him later), namely Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano and David Robertson showed why the team’s geriatric and/or mentally unstable starting rotation may not be as much of an Achilles heel as once thought.  In fact, over a six-week stretch, Logan had allowed just three runs over 13 1/3 innings with 20 strikeouts, the highlight of which was a 3-pitch bases loaded fanning of the greatest hitter of all-time Adrian Gonzalez. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY lose 2-of-3)

8/9 – 8/11 v. LAA – If there’s one thing Yankee announcer Michael Kay brings to the table, it’s consistency. Consistently awful announcing. You’ve heard him say it approximately 26,000 times over the years when a pitcher has runners on 1st and 3rd; “the ol’ “Jeff Nelson-move.” Well, the inevitable happened, the move finally worked. To end a game. Unbelievably, the impossible became possible only after a rare hiccup from the aforementioned Rivera, who had coughed it up against the potent bat of one Mr. Robert Abreu. Yes, that Abreu. He of the two home runs all season prior to facing New York. Oh, AJ Burnett also threw baseballs in no particular direction, so Hide yo’ kids, hide yo’ wives, ’cause he’s walkin’ everybody out here.  (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY win 2-of-3)

8/12 – 8/14 v. TAM – Having already touched on Posada turning back the clock, a far more important development during this series was the potential resurgence of Phil Hughes. Following up a 6-inning, rain-shortened shutout of the White Sox on August 2 – when his fastball was consistently clocked in the mid-90s – Hughes held the Rays to two runs on four hits over six more-than-effective innings.  Maybe Brian Cashman was right when he claimed his non-trades were essentially of the in-house variety at the trade deadline. Then again, Hughes hasn’t pitched more than six innings in any of his nine starts this season, so optimism should be tempered. (Prediction: NYY sweep series) (NYY split 2 games)

8/15 – 8/17 @ KC – Not much to say about Kansas City, because, well, they’re Kansas City, but I did note a few interesting tidbits. Former Yankee Melky Cabrera (.310/16/73)  must be doing Pilates because he’s become toight like a tiger. Can’t-miss 1B Eric Hosmer has a gorgeous swing, but that facial hair is starting to cross into Big-Sloppy territory and it’s on manager Ned Yost to keep the inmates from running the asylum. Finally, if you watched Wednesday’s Yankee loss, you saw the umpires “use” instant replay to absolutely botch a disputed home run call. Notwithstanding the fact the crew apparently did not know the grounds rules at Kaufman Stadium, and therefore no amount of replay could have guided them to the correct call, it was a crappy outcome nonetheless. I’ve never been particularly concerned with either blown calls or too much technology, but it’s readily apparent that something needs to be done. Playing “Just the Tip” makes no sense; you either go with full-deployment of replay for everything but balls and strikes, or you don’t have it at all. Perhaps someone can address this when Bud Selig finally dies in 2069. (Prediction: NYY sweep series) (Actual: NYY win 2-of-3)

LOOKING FORWARD: What can’t you miss?

If it seems like everything’s been quiet on the Yankee-front for the past month or so, that’s because it has been. And as you might expect, that serenity is sure to evaporate faster than your 401K has lately with the impending return of Alex Rodriguez from the disabled list. ARod is expected to rejoin the lineup on Saturday or Tuesday, and if he can manage to keep his poker habit in check, he’s sure to restore order and depth to the already potent Yankee lineup.

If there’s any downside to ARod’s return – and believe me, some morons folks will tell you there’s plenty – it’s that the uber-talented and super-underrated Brett Gardner will probably be bumped back to the 9-hole. If I was slipping the loose-leaf into Girardi’s binder, I’d roll with a lineup of 1. Gardner, 2. Jeter, 3. Granderson, 4. ARod, 5. Cano, 6. Teixeira, 7. Swisher, 8. Matsui (see below) and 9. Martin.

Alas, that will never happen, but it probably makes no difference anyway. Any way you slice it, this lineup is very scary to opposing pitchers, and the Yankees are making the playoffs regardless.

What we expect to learn:

8/18 – 8/21 @ MIN – For the past decade or so, we’ve heard legions of broadcasters and fans tell us how amazing the Minnesota Twins are. “They’re MLB’s Little Franchise That Could” or “They’re proof that chicks also dig the small ball.” And with a spiffy new ballpark comes an increase in revenue, and thankfully, team-payroll – they’re ninth at $112.7m, approximately 95% of which they’re paying Joe Mauer – yet ironically, they’re 15 games below .500. Speaking of Mauer, he’s only hit one homer this season, and the greatest site ever created tells you exactly what his production is worth according to your measly salary.  (Prediction: NYY win 3-of-4)

8/23 – 8/25 v. OAK – First it was Sergio Mitre. Then Scott Proctor. Might Hideki Matsui be next? Godzilla has reportedly cleared waivers, and you have to wonder if the Yankees have given any thought to bringing the Japanese-born, former-superstar back to the Bronx. Since the All-Star break, the 37-year-old Matsui is hitting .385/.573/1.012 (5 HR and 26 RBI) and I have to believe Cashman has at least pondered re-acquiring him. With the return of ARod, Matsui in the 8-hole ahead of Russell Martin makes a lot of sense. He’s always been great in the big spot, and given the team’s starting pitching deficiencies, lengthening the lineup might be the only viable path to reaching the World Series. By the way, Matsui is a career .333 hitter against Justin Verlander, he’s hit a home run once every 11.5 at-bats against Josh Beckett, and he sports a 1.041 OPS against Colby Lewis. Just sayin’. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)

8/26 – 8/29 v. BAL – Since there’s virtually no source material here, let’s instead focus on what’s good about Baltimore. As far as I can discern, that includes crab cakes, Carmelo Anthony and The Wire. Oh, and Camden Yards. If you haven’t yet traveled down I-95 for an Orioles game – and yes, you do need to travel through New Jersey to get there – you’re really missing out. Not only are tickets widely available, but they’re also cheap as dirt and almost every seat in the house has a great sight line. Just make sure you don’t book your hotel room in “West” Baltimore, mostly because you’re not Stringer Bell, and you won’t be coming home. Ever. (Prediction: NYY sweep series)

8/30 – 9/1 @ BOS – I have a confession to make. Despite being born and raised in the Bronx, having once been employed as a writer by MLB.com, and growing up as the son/grandson of a mother/grandfather who were in attendance on October 1, 1961 when Roger Maris hit his 61st home run, I have never been to Fenway Park. Well, unless you count living vicariously through Ben Affleck in ‘The Town’ via Blu-ray. I know, it’s embarrassing, but now you know, and I hope we can move beyond this woeful inadequacy of mine. Not much to say here; the Yankees need to win these games, especially with Clay Buchholz and Kevin Youkilis on the disabled list. I suspect they will, and both CC and Rivera will redeem themselves for their earlier transgressions. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)

And that’s all she wrote. I’ll see you back here in a fortnight, unless you follow me on Twitter, in which case I’ll see you every five seconds or so.

Every other week, Jamie O’Grady channels the 2005-version of Michael Kay by “Looking Back. Looking Forward.” to get you caught up on what just was, and what soon will be with the New York Yankees.

The Yankees are now virtually two-thirds of the way through the 2011 regular-season, and not surprisingly, they find themselves right in the thick of yet another pennant race. It’s really quite something when you consider all that’s transpired to date. Despite suffering only slightly fewer casualties than did the 54^th Regiment under Matthew Broderick, and relying on a pitching staff mostly held together by duct tape, the Bronx Bombers still enter play Friday tied with the Red Sox at 68-42.

Looking Back: So what did you miss?

Back in March, I seem to recall reading somewhere – oh, right, it was everywhere – that the only things more certain than Boston winning the World Series in 2011 were death and taxes. Well, guess what – Kirk Douglas is still alive and the Tea Party says it’s okay to ignore those IRS notices I keep getting.

Need more proof that you just can’t predict baseball? Since Alex Rodriguez hit the DL on July 8th, New York has responded by winning 17-of-24 games, which roughly translates to a 70.833333333 winning %. With 165 runs scored over that same span, the Yankee offense has been clicking more often than that guy from The Gods Must Be Crazy. Still, it can’t be overstated how fortunate it was that everyone’s favorite centaur suffered only a minor meniscus tear; ARod’s already resumed baseball activities in St. Jetersburg.

Of course, leave it to Rodriguez to make headlines while rehabbing incognito. He’s reportedly now being investigated – at this point MLB has an entire compliance division dedicated to ARod – for taking part in some cocaine-laced, celebrity-stacked poker games. I doubt anything – suspension or otherwise – will come of this; Bud Selig is reportedly so fanatical about his strip-poker game that he’s doing P90X for a third time to tighten up those saggy glutes.

MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline came and went, and the Yankees made their traditional big splash by picking up… absolutely no one. It’s hard to blame Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman for standing pat – when the most appetizing available player is a guy named Wandy, it’s probably best to holster your sidearm. That said, it would have been nice to see the Yankees address their wholly unreliable DH slot. If only Jorge Posada hadn’t up and retired in a huff back in May. Surely if he were still on the roster, he’d be making an impact.

At this point in his career, I think it’s fair to compare Phil Hughes to a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get. And that’s the problem with boxed chocolates, isn’t it? It’s either a wondrous cocoa-gasm or a lethal bout with anaphylactic shock on account of the peanuts. Maybe the problem isn’t with Hughes, per se, but rather it’s the darn antiquity of the game’s rules. If only hitters were afforded just two strikes per at-bat, is there any doubt that Hughes would win at least six Cy Young Awards?

What we learned:

7/25 – 7/27 v. SEA – The Mariners are bad. Like, really bad. And don’t take my word for it, either. 17-game losing streaks tend to speak for themselves. You know a team is broken when its odds of making the playoffs are now less than one percent. It’s a good thing the Yankees have CC Sabathia on their side. Opt-out, schmopt-out. Striking out 14 batters in one baseball game entitles him to get paid. A lot. Again. Speaking of number-one starters who will eventually don the pinstripes, paging King Felix. Hernandez, coincidentally, has now won his last five decisions against New York, sporting a microscopic 1.29 over that span. You know what they say, “if you can’t beat ‘em, buy ‘em.” (NYY win 2-of-3)

7/28 – 7/31 v. BAL – Buck Showalter really likes wearing windbreakers, which is rather serendipitous given the endless squalls generated by the strikeouts of Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis. AJ Burnett apparently has an allergy to July, as he managed to go winless in his five starts during the month. Orioles’ starter Zach Britton once had a bad dream that he gave up nine runs over 1/3IP. Baltimore really needs someone to replace owner Peter Angelos. Someone with vision and a will to get things done. Is anyone better qualified than Marlo Stanfield? (NYY win 3-of-4)

8/1 – 8/4 @ CHW – The artist formerly known as Adam Dunn is having an historic season. Historically bad, which is precisely why I endorse his acquisition by the Yankees this off-season. Guys like Dunn don’t just forget how to hit altogether, and I suspect that a change of scenery might do the 31-year-old wonders. Assuming Kevin Long can work his magic to restore even 75% of Dunn’s typical yearly production, New York could do worse a lot worse at DH. Please ignore the fact that Derek Jeter has had just one fewer five-hit games (2) this season than Dunn has had “golden sombreros” (3). AJ Burnett is apparently also allergic to the month of August. In fact, he’s an unthinkable 0-for-pinstripes in three Augusts in New York. Oh, Brian Bruney still needs anger management therapy. (NYY sweep 4-game series)

Looking Forward: What can’t you miss?

If the Yankees are to have any hope of winning the AL East – and securing home-field advantage in the ALDS – they’ve got to figure out a way to solve the the Red Sox. Coming into tonight’s game, New York is a mind-boggling 1-8 against Boston, which has pretty much never happened before, unless you go all the wayyyyy back to 2009, when they started out 0-8 versus their Beantown rivals.

Don’t look now, but the rumors of Derek Jeter’s demise may have been slightly exaggerated. Since coming off the disabled list on July 4th, all the Captain has done is hit .333 with an OPS well north of .800. Sure, he doesn’t field ground balls that aren’t hit within two feet of him, but he’s a steady and serviceable defender who has proven an innate ability to rise to the occasion. Plus, he gets to roleplay “Bring It On” on a nightly basis.

The Jesus Montero watch has officially commenced. The highly-touted catcher (who supposedly can’t catch) is now hitting .288/.345/.441 over 340 at-bats with AAA-Scranton/Wilkes Barre, while Posada hasn’t exactly been lighting it up over the last 30 days with zero homers and a .532 OPS. Frankly, I can’t be the only one psyched for Jesus-wordplay on the tabloid backpages once the can’t-miss phenomhe arrives.

Everybody knows that the Yankee rotation beyond Sabathia (1.15 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.72 K/9 over the last 30 days) is a crap-shoot, so the performance of Rafael Soriano has taken on even greater importance for the club. Soriano (he of the widely-panned, three-year, auto-renew, huge-money, Randy Levine-approved contract) will be invaluable if he can return to career-form after two months on the disabled list. To ensure Soriano’s comfort level, Joe Girardi would be well-advised to anoint the former set-up man as his “none-th inning guy.”

What we expect to learn:

8/5 – 8/7 @ BOS – Look, these guys are good. In fact, they’re a lot like the Yankees from a structural perspective. Great lineup, suspect rotation, and a solid, if not particularly deep bullpen. New York will miss the newly acquired Erik Bedard, but it will remain interesting to see if he’s more stud or dud for the Red Sox. Keep an eye on Russell Martin tonight; he’s  batting .500 against Jon Lester (albeit over just two at-bats). The pitching matchups aren’t really favorable to either club, so I’m betting that the Yankees begin to turn things around. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)

8/9 – 8/11 v. LAA – Does anyone even know who’s on the Angel roster anymore? Ok, that’s not entirely fair, they do have two of the best ten starters in the game in Weaver and Haren. Seriously, this team relies on the corpses of Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells for run production, so if the Yankees don’t essentially end their season by next Wednesday, I’ll be very surprised. By the way, I’m pretty sure that Abreu and Andruw Jones shop for their smiles at the same plastic surgeon. It’s claymation, personified. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)

8/12 – 8/14 v. TAM – This will be a series of “ifs.” The Yankees can sweep the series and bury Tampa’s wild-card aspirations if: 1) they keep Carl Crawford off the basepaths, 2) they can figure out how to hit Matt Garza; and 3) they have an answer for lights-out closer Rafael Soriano. Wait, forget all that, I think I read somewhere that the Rays traded all those guys for Kyle Farnsworth (2.16 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 20 saves). Speaking of Farnsy, I would have bet money that he was the guy with centaurian artwork at home. (Prediction: NYY sweep series)

8/15 – 8/17 @ KC – The Royals may be sitting at 16 games below .500, but it isn’t because of their offense. They’re actually 5th in team-BA (.267), 8th in team-OBP (.328), and 12th in both runs scored and team-OPS. Sadly, their abysmal staff, anchored by “staff-ace” Bruce Chen (yes, that Bruce Chen), ranks near the bottom of every Major League team-pitching category. Heck, even the aforementioned Adam Dunn has hit a home run against KC, which should serve the Yankees well in 2012. (Prediction: NYY sweep series)

And that’s all she wrote. I’ll see you back here in a fortnight, unless you follow me on Twitter, in which case I’ll see you every five seconds or so.