Archive for Hot Stove League
Following yesterday’s season finale, Ichiro Suzuki told Dan Barbarisi he feels great and strongly indicated he will continue playing. “Obviously there’s a lot of things that go on that the fans and the media can’t see, that goes on inside (the club), but what I can say is that the experiences I had this year, those experiences are going to help me in the future,” he said cryptically to Brendan Kuty when asked if he’d be open to returning to the Yankees.
Ichiro, who will turn 41 next month, hit .284/.324/.340 (86 wRC+) with 15 steals in 385 plate appearances this year. He seemed to be at his best in a limited fourth outfielder role. His production slipped once he was pressed into everyday duty. The Yankees will need a fourth outfielder next season like every other team, and the recently claimed Eury Perez offers a similar speed and defense skillset. It’s unclear if they’re open to bringing Ichiro back or if he even wants to be back at this point. He’s 156 hits shy of 3,000 and will probably need to play two more years to get there.
Following his final start of the season earlier this week, Brandon McCarthy told Brendan Kuty it would be tough to pass up a return to New York when he hits free agency this winter. “I’d prefer to be anywhere where I’m wanted but this would be a hard place to turn down. It’s been a great time here,” he said. “I feel like gotten along with a lot of people. The way the organization goes about its business makes perfect sense to me. It’d be hard to find a better fit than here.”
McCarthy, 31, had a rough final start, but he still had a 2.89 ERA (3.22 FIP) in 14 starts and 90.1 innings with the Yankees. He was awesome. McCarthy will be arguably the fourth best pitcher on the open market behind Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields this winter. At this point I would not be surprised if he got a three or even four-year contract. His lengthy history of shoulder problems (specifically stress fractures) is scary even though he did stay healthy this year. The Yankees need to add some pitching this offseason and McCarthy made it easy to want him back after the trade.
Even though the list of September call-ups looked like a bunch of guys signed by the Long Island Ducks, the Yankees have gotten some real nice production from their extra players since rosters expanded two weeks ago. Antoan Richardson had a good weekend in Baltimore, Bryan Mitchell was solid in his first MLB start, and even Rich Hill has been very good since coming back, striking out six of nine batters faced. Chad Jennings ran down the September call-up situation yesterday.
The most productive extra player this month is ex-Mets outfielder Chris Young, who has gone 10-for-27 (.370) with four doubles and three homeruns in pinstripes. He hit a walk-off homer against the Rays last Thursday (after breaking up Alex Cobb’s no-hitter with a double in the eighth inning) and hit a go-ahead homer in the tenth inning against the Orioles in the first game of Friday’s doubleheader, though the bullpen couldn’t protect the lead. Young has also played very good defense despite being relatively new to left and right fields. He’s done all that for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Not bad at all.
The Yankees already have a full starting outfield heading into next season — I am in the camp that wants to see Carlos Beltran become a most of the time DH, but I’m not convinced that will actually happen just yet — but they will need to bring in a fourth outfielder. Ichiro Suzuki is due to become a free agent and I don’t think the Yankees will re-sign him, and while Martin Prado can play the outfield in a pinch, they’re still going to need one dedicated player to back up all three outfield spots. That’s just someone a team needs to have on the roster.
Since both Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are lefties and Beltran is a switch-hitter with much better numbers against righties (118 wRC+ vs. RHP and 54 wRC+ vs. LHP), next year’s fourth outfielder should be a right-handed hitter just to balance things out. Another righty bat has been a need since Opening Day, really. It goes without saying good speed, good defense, and the ability to play all three outfield spots would be preferred as well. Bench players are bench players for a reason though, and that’s because they aren’t good enough to start. Usually they can only do a few of those things and are lacking somewhere.
The Yankees don’t have a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder option in the organization — Ramon Flores is on the 40-man roster but is a left-handed hitter, and Tyler Austin will be added to the 40-man this winter but is unlikely to skip over Triple-A — so they’ll have to go outside the organization for this player. Chris Denorfia, Jonny Gomes, and Scott Hairston are all due to become free agents this offseason and they’ve filled this role to a T just about their entire careers. All have their pluses and minuses.
Young is a different story though. He was an everyday center fielder with the Diamondbacks from 2006-12 before moving into a platoon role with the Athletics last year. The Mets played him nearly everyday before releasing him, so, for most of his career, Young has been an everyday player, not a bench guy. He does check all the right boxes though: right-handed hitter, good power, good speed, and good defense in all three outfield spots. Young is a low average hitter (.234 career, 22.6 K%), so that’s his flaw. Otherwise he looks like someone who could be a fourth outfielder option next year.
Now, there are two sides to every free agent signing. There is no doubt Young is hoping his strong September with the Yankees will make teams forget what he did in Flushing and land him a starting outfield spot somewhere. He’s going to have to settle for a one-year contract no matter what, so he’ll look for the best opportunity and the most playing time this winter. Is being a fourth outfielder in the Bronx the best situation for Young? Maybe it is. It all depends on the offers that come his way in the offseason. For what it’s worth, Young told Buster Olney (subs. req’d) that he’s “having a blast (with the Yankees). I don’t know if I’ve ever had more fun. Hopefully it’s a new start of better things to come.”
The Yankees already have close to $170M tied up in only ten players next year (not counting arbitration cases) and Hal Steinbrenner has held the line with payroll in recent years, somewhere around the $200M mark. That might change after missing the postseason for a second straight year, and don’t necessarily mean an increase either. Paying Young starter money — the Mets gave him one year and $7.25M — to be a fourth outfielder probably isn’t an option and shouldn’t be anyway. The Yankees gave Andruw Jones one year and $2M a few years ago and that’s good money for a fourth outfielder. That’s probably the max the team can offer Young to stay around.
Finding a right-handed complement for their left-handed heavy outfield will be on the shopping list this winter, and the Yankees are getting a firsthand look at what Young offers right now. I don’t necessarily mean on the field either — I doubt a month of playing time will drastically change their opinion of him — they’ll also get to see his work ethic, how he interacts with teammates in the clubhouse, stuff like that. The stuff that you usually can’t find out until after signing a player. Young does make sense for the fourth outfielder spot next year and not just because of his strong last week or so. Whether that position is appealing to him is another matter entirely.
Given the number of pitching injuries they suffered this season, the Yankees should have been out of the postseason race a long time ago. I mean out out. At one point five of the organization’s six best starting pitchers were on the disabled list and right now three of their top four Opening Day rotation members are still out with injuries. The Masahiro Tanaka injury the week before the All-Star break should have been the final straw. It should have been over after that.
Instead, Brian Cashman & Co. have cobbled together a five-man rotation that not only prevented the Yankees from falling apart, but has actually improved upon what the team was getting out of their starters earlier in the season. The rotation had a 4.10 ERA (3.92 FIP) before Tanaka got hurt and they have a 3.39 ERA (3.26 FIP) since. That’s remarkable. A notable trade (Brandon McCarthy), a scrap heap pickup (Chris Capuano), a timely call-up (Shane Greene), and a return to health (Michael Pineda) have kept the club afloat. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild deserves a lot of credit.
The Yankees figure to be in the market for pitching help this winter because they and every other team look for pitching help every winter. One thing I’ve learned is that it doesn’t matter how much pitching a team already has or how bad the offensive environment is around the league, teams will always look for more arms. In the case of the Yankees, they’ll be bringing back three injury risk starters next season in Tanaka (elbow), Pineda (shoulder), and CC Sabathia (knee). Greene and David Phelps provide some depth, but the need for some rotation protection is obvious.
The upcoming free agent pitching class is top heavy thanks to Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields, three inarguably excellent pitchers who come with their own unique sets of pluses and minuses. All three will require pretty massive contracts — Shields is likely to get the smallest deal of the three and I have a hard time believing he’ll sign for fewer than four or five years at this point — and in the case of Scherzer and Shields, forfeiting first round draft picks as well. They’re worth it though. Those three guys are legitimate top of the rotation arms.
The Yankees are already paying Sabathia and Tanaka top of the rotation dollars and, unless they up payroll substantially next year, fitting another $20M+ per year starter doesn’t seem doable without skimping on offense. They have opened the season with a payroll in the $195M to $215M range in six of the last seven years, and Cot’s says they already have $168.8M committed to only ten players next season. Considering how their offense has been below-average for two straight years now, fixing it should be the top priority this winter.
This season showed the Yankees are capable of building a quality rotation with smaller moves and lower profile pickups. Would they be a better team with Scherzer or Lester? Absolutely. But I think the focus has to be on adding depth this winter, not one big star player. Given all those risky starters under contract, the Yankees should focus on adding two or even three starters this offseason. The alternative to spending, say, $25M annually on Lester could be spending $20M combined on two of McCarthy, Jason Hammel, and the reclamation projects that are Brett Anderson and Justin Masterson, giving the club more options and keeping the contract lengths short.
Now, those are just a bunch of names I’m throwing out there and I’m an idiot. Who knows what it will take to sign those guys in reality or if any of them will want to come pitch in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have shown they are adept at not only identifying starting pitchers who are better than what they’ve shown recently, but also getting more out of them then expected. It’s not a one-time thing either. They’ve done it with Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and even Hiroki Kuroda in recent years. That’s a valuable skill they can use to their advantage. (The fact that no one can hit anymore works in their favor as well.)
The Yankees are still the Yankees and they’re always going to be in the mix for big name free agents. That’s what they do. Lester in particular is very tempting as an AL East proven workhorse left-handed ace with big market chops, and I fully expect the team to be all in on him this winter. But, as I said the other day, I think the Yankees are where they are right now because of their unwavering reliance on long-term, big money contracts. I think their ability to dig up quality starters out of seemingly nowhere is incredibly valuable and would allow them go to a different route this winter, eschewing yet another long-term pitching contract in favor of shorter term deals that add depth and flexibility.
Via Dan Martin: Right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has not yet thought about whether he will retire or continue playing after the season. He hasn’t made the decision until well into the offseason the last two years. “I have not thought about next year,” he said. “Since I’ve signed one-year contracts, I always wait until the completion of the season before I decide what to do.”
Kuroda, 39, has a 3.94 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 26 starts and 160 innings this year, so while hasn’t been the same guy we saw from 2012-13, he has been solid overall. I’ve been assuming this would be Kuroda’s last year in New York one way or the other, but I don’t think that’s completely set in stone. The Yankees need pitching, so if he wants to continue playing and is willing to sign for something like $10M to $12M instead of $16M, he could be back in 2015.
Via Dan Barbarisi: Following yesterday’s shutout win, Brandon McCarthy said he would be open to re-signing with the Yankees after the season. “Yeah. There wouldn’t be a question in my mind about that,” he said when asked about returning to New York. “I feel like it’s a great fit for me here. The guys here have been fantastic, everybody associated with the club. And it’s living in New York — there’s so many great aspects.”
McCarthy, 31, has a 1.90 ERA (2.33 FIP) with a stellar 51/7 K/BB in eight starts and 52 innings for the Yankees. I don’t think you can expect him to pitch that well going forward, plus he has a long and scary history of shoulder injuries, but the team needs pitching and he shouldn’t require a huge contract. McCarthy is wrapping up a two-year, $18M deal right now. If they can get him on another two-year deal at, say, $20M to $24M, they should jump all over it. Especially before he actually hits free agency.
Via Jon Heyman: Along with the Cubs, the Yankees are viewed as a likely landing spot for free agent-to-be left-hander Jon Lester this offseason. Heyman says a reunion with the Red Sox is considered unlikely. The Cubbies are run by Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, who obviously know the southpaw from their time in Boston.
Lester is a great fit for the Yankees because he’s a great fit for every team in baseball. Every club could use a prime-aged workhorse left-hander with proven big market and postseason chops. The real question is whether the Yankees are willing to take on a third $20M+ annual salary pitcher, especially given the other holes on the roster. The team is very top heavy and I think they need to focus on adding several solid players rather than one star plus a bunch of replacement level guys this winter.
Via Tim Britton: Jacoby Ellsbury joked about recruiting free agent-to-be Jon Lester after the season. “I’m sure I’ll talk to him at some point in the offseason, but I would have anyways,” he said. “When you’re with a teammate that long, you build strong relationships, not only as teammates but off the field as well — your wives, your kids and everything.”
Thanks to last week’s trade, the Athletics can not make Lester a qualifying offer, so he will not be attached to draft pick compensation. That’s a minor detail for a pitcher of this caliber, but it is a nice little bonus. Lester makes perfect sense for the Yankees as an AL East and postseason proven lefty workhorse ace, but are they open to the idea of a third $20M+ a year pitching contract? That seems like the biggest issue, not whether Ellsbury can sell Lester on New York.
The Twins have agreed to a contract with free agent first baseman/DH Kendrys Morales, according to Jon Heyman. That came out of nowhere. The Yankees were said to have interest in Morales but not until they took some more time to evaluate Carlos Beltran (elbow) and Mark Teixeira (wrist), so now they’ll have to find lineup help elsewhere. Right field and second or third base seem like obvious spots to upgrade.
Via Jon Heyman: The Yankees asked Kendrys Morales to hold off on signing so they could have a little more time to evaluate Mark Teixeira (wrist) and Carlos Beltran (elbow) following their injuries. Morales and Scott Boras said no because they’ve been waiting to sign for months and that is a stupid request. Heyman says Morales is likely to sign within a day or two since the draft is beginning tonight.
Teixeira already said he’s going to need regular days off to manage the wrist, no? And Beltran will receive treatment for the elbow the rest of the season, right? Right. They’ve already been evaluated, there you go. They’re probably going to get hurt again because they have injuries prone to setbacks and because everyone on the Yankees gets hurt again. If the Yankees are this hesitant to add help, then they’re in even more trouble that we all think.