The Value and Versatility of Adam Warren [2015 Season Review]

AdamWarrenIt’s easy to forget Adam Warren received his first extended big league opportunity because of Phil Hughes. Hughes suffered a minor back injury late in Spring Training two years ago, forcing David Phelps into the rotation. That freed up the long man spot and opened the door for Warren to be on the 2013 Opening Day roster.

Since making that Opening Day roster two years ago, Warren has worn all sorts of hats for the Yankees. He’s been a spot starter, a long man, a middle reliever, a setup man … Warren did a little of everything for the Yankees the last two seasons. And, once again, Warren did a little of everything for the Yankees in 2015. He was one of the most valuable pitchers on the staff.

An Opportunity in Spring

Warren came to Spring Training stretched out as a starter, but, even with Phelps traded to the Marlins, there was no obvious rotation spot available. CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and Nathan Eovaldi were locked into the top four spots, and depth signing Chris Capuano had a leg up on the fifth spot after pitching admirably down the stretch last season.

Then, on March 11th, Capuano took a misstep covering first base and suffered a Grade II quad strain. He was going to start the season on the DL, opening a rotation spot for Warren. Well, the Yankees tried to pass it off as a competition between Warren and Esmil Rogers, but c’mon. Warren allowed five runs in 16.2 innings across five Grapefruit League starts. He looked like Adam Warren. Uneventful spring, really.

Reliever or Starter?

Warren opened the season as the fifth starter and the first few times out, he looked very much like a reliever masquerading as a starter. He struggled after turning the lineup over and he wasn’t efficient at all. Warren threw 31 innings in his first six starts — that’s fewer than five innings plus one out per start — with 13 walks and 16 strikeouts. Only once in those six starts did he have more strikeouts than walks. (Really.)

It’s hard to believe there was a time we were waiting for Capuano to return to Warren could shift back to the bullpen, but it happened. Unfortunately Masahiro Tanaka landed on the DL with a forearm injury, so Capuano took his spot, not Warren’s. That actually worked out well. Warren settled in as a starter in May, allowing three runs in seven innings against the Rays on May 13th. It was his seventh start of the season and the first time he completed six innings of work, nevermind seven.

From that point on, Warren was arguably the most reliable pitcher in the rotation. Tanaka was hurt, Sabathia was struggling, Eovaldi still hadn’t figured out the splitter, Pineda was have a tough time after the 16-strikeout game, and Capuano was Capuano. Warren had a 2.96 ERA (4.10 FIP) in eight starts and 51.2 innings from May 13th through June 25th. His best start came on May 26th against the Royals. He held them to one run on two hits in 6.1 innings.

Through June 25th, Warren owned a 3.59 ERA (4.17 FIP) in 14 starts and 82.2 innings. April was rough, but eventually he settled into a groove and pitched very well for about six weeks there. Considering he was the team’s sixth starter coming into the season, things were working out pretty damn well.

Back to the Bullpen

Tanaka returned from his forearm injury on June 3rd and Ivan Nova returned from Tommy John surgery on June 24th, so suddenly the Yankees had six starters for five spots. (Capuano had been demoted to the bullpen.) The Yankees decided to stick with Nova and send Warren back to the bullpen, where he was so effective from 2013-14. At the time of the demotion, Warren had the lowest ERA among the club’s starters.

“I took it about as well as you can take it,” said Warren to reporters after the demotion. “I was a little frustrated at first because I want to be a starter. They sat down and talked to me about it and I understood where they were coming from, I told them I’m not going to be unhappy out of the bullpen. I enjoyed being out of the bullpen the last couple of years. I’m not upset by any means. For me it’s just getting back to a bullpen routine. You knew the six-man rotation was not going to last, just playing the numbers game I felt this was going to happen sometime.”

Girardi took advantage of Warren being stretched out by asking him to throw 2+ innings in five of his first eleven bullpen appearances. Of course, Warren was also pitching in low-leverage situations more often than not for some reason. At one point from late-June into early-July, he entered six consecutive games in these situations:

sixth inning down four
seventh inning up 14
sixth inning up ten
sixth inning down two
sixth inning down four
seventh inning down two

Not a whole lot of important innings there. The Yankees had a great end-game trio in Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Justin Wilson, but those couldn’t pitch every day, and for some reason Warren wasn’t being used to pick up the slack. I dunno, it was weird.

By time July and August rolled around, Warren had settled back into a true one-inning relief role. He threw 32.2 innings across 25 appearances after being sent back to the bullpen, pitching to a 2.51 ERA (2.76 FIP). Both his strikeout (26.6%) and walk (6.2%) rates were significant better than they had been as a starter earlier in the season (16.0 K% and 7.7 B%). Warren was excellent. That was no surprise though. He was excellent out of the bullpen from 2013-14.

Whatever You Need, Skip

The Yankees ran into some rotation trouble at the end of the season. Eovaldi had to be shut down with elbow inflammation and Tanaka pulled a hamstring, so they had no choice but the use Warren as a starter. He made three starts with a limited pitch count in mid-September, allowing six runs in 13.1 innings.

The bullpen was full of extra arms thanks to expanded rosters, but the Yankees still needed someone to go out and soak up some innings as a starter. Warren again did that. On October 1st, the Yankees needed something else from Warren. The bullpen was taxed and they needed someone to bridge the gap between Sabathia and Betances, the day’s designated closer.

With the Yankees looking to clinch their first postseason berth in two seasons, Warren came out of the bullpen against the Red Sox and held them to one hit and one walk in three scoreless innings. He took the ball from Sabathia and gave it directly to Betances.

The final month of the 2015 season was the Adam Warren Experience in a nutshell. He dominated as a short reliever in early-September, filled in for a few starts in the middle of September, then gave the Yankees a big long relief outing in early-October. Warren is a bullpen jack of all trades. He’s the closest thing the Yankees have had to Ramiro Mendoza since Ramiro Mendoza.

That three-inning outing against the Red Sox was Warren’s final appearance of the 2015 season. He was on the wildcard game roster and was presumably the next man out of the bullpen had the game gone to extra innings. Warren closed out the season with a 3.29 ERA (3.59 FIP) in a career high 131.1 innings across 17 starts and 26 relief appearances. Both bWAR (2.7) and fWAR (2.2) say he was one of the four most valuable Yankees pitchers in 2015.

“Every good club that I’ve been on has seemed to have a guy like Adam Warren that is able to do so many different things for you as a pitcher,” said Girardi at the end of the season. “His value has been as big as any pitcher that we have in that room … He’s invaluable.”

Looking Ahead to 2016

After three seasons of doing whatever the Yankees needed, Warren will finally earn something more than the league minimum in 2016. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and is projected for a $1.5M salary next year. Barring a surprise trade, Warren will again come to Spring Training as a starter next season. What will be his role during the regular season? A little of everything seems like a safe bet once again.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Jeff Samardzija


At the moment, the Yankees have seven starters for five rotation spots. That includes Ivan Nova and Adam Warren, who are depth arms and not oh gosh we need to clear a rotation spot for him arms. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off offseason elbow surgery, however, and the trio of Nathan Eovaldi (elbow), CC Sabathia (knee), and Michael Pineda (forearm) all got hurt in the second half.

Those seven starters come with seven question marks — Nova stunk this year, Warren has never spent a full MLB season as a starter, Luis Severino is a 21-year-old kid — and while adding rotation help may not be a top priority this offseason, it would make sense to at least explore the market. After all, the Yankees had those seven guys this past season and they still needed Chase Whitley, Chris Capuano, and Bryan Mitchell to make some starts.

The 2015-16 free agent class is loaded with starters. You’ve got aces, mid-rotation guys, reclamation projects, you name it. We haven’t seen a free agent class this deep with arms in a very long time. One of those arms is right-hander Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a disappointing season but nevertheless is expected to receive a significant contract this winter. The Yankees have already been connected to him. Let’s dive in.

Recent Performance

Like I said, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Samardzija had a disappointing 2015 season with the White Sox. The idea players cost themselves money with poor performance gets thrown around too much — no, those two bad weeks in September won’t kill a guy’s free agent value — but Samardzija definitely did. He was potentially looking at $100M+ this offseason. Anyway, here are his last three years.

2013 213.2 4.34 3.77 23.4% 8.5% 48.2% 13.3% .309 .342
2014 219.2 2.99 3.20 23.0% 4.9% 50.2% 10.6% .279 .292
2015 214.0 4.96 4.23 17.9% 5.4% 39.0% 10.8% .302 .357
2013-15 647.1 4.09 3.73 21.4% 6.3% 45.6% 11.5% .297 .332

Okay, so which one is the real Samardzija? Is it the guy who was okay at best in 2013, the guy who was an ace in 2014, or the guy who led the league earned runs and total bases allowed in 2015? For some reason I feel like the answer is none of the above. The truth is probably somewhere between 2014 and 2015, which is an incredibly wide range of possible outcomes.

I think it’s important to note the White Sox had one of the worst defenses in baseball this season, which surely contributed to Samardzija’s trouble preventing runs. They turned relatively few balls in play into outs behind him. The bad defense doesn’t explain a five percentage point drop in strikeout rate or the ten (!) percentage point drop in ground ball rate*, however.

* Samardzija went from 0.82 HR/9 last year to 1.22 HR/9 this year, and that’s all due to the sudden lack of ground balls. His HR/FB% rate was basically identical those two years.

Let’s take a deeper look at at the type of contact Samardzija has given up the last few seasons and see what’s going on there.

GB% FB% LD% IFFB% Pull% Oppo% Soft% Hard%
2013 48.2% 31.4% 20.4% 10.1% 36.5% 23.0% 17.8% 28.2%
2014 50.2% 30.5% 19.3% 10.6% 38.0% 24.4% 19.9% 24.7%
2015 39.0% 39.8% 21.2% 10.1% 40.2% 26.4% 18.7% 26.7%
2013-15 45.6% 34.1% 20.3% 10.2% 38.3% 24.7% 18.8% 26.5%
MLB AVG 45.3% 33.8% 20.9% 9.5% 39.1% 25.7% 18.6% 28.6%

Samardzija’s hard and soft contact rates have been right in line with the league average the last few years. Same goes for pull and opposite field rates. If there was a lot of hard contact or a spike in pull rate — suggesting hitters were getting around quicker on his stuff — it would be a significant red flag.

Fly balls are not necessarily a bad thing — most fly balls are catchable, routine plays — and Samardzija has gotten a bit more infield pop-ups than the league average pitcher the last three years. Pop-ups are almost as good as strikeouts. They’re as close to a sure out as there is in this game. Still, Samardzija’s ground ball rate fell and his fly ball rate climbed big time in 2015, and that’s something we can’t ignore.

Something caused those changes in Samardzija’s fly ball and ground ball rates this year. They’re just the symptoms of the problem, not the problem itself. Samardzija’s stuff and pitch mix may have the answers, or at least point us in the right direction.

The Stuff

At this point of his career Samardzija is a true five-pitch pitcher. He stopped toying around with a changeup and a curveball a few years ago, instead settling on a splitter and slider as his go-to secondary pitches. Three different fastballs — four-seamer, sinker, cutter — round out his repertoire. Here’s a real quick average velocity breakdown from Brooks Baseball:


That’s a pretty significant drop in four-seamer velocity, right? Samardzija lost 1.3 mph off his heater last season. The velocity drop on his other pitches — sinker (.52 mph), slider (.97 mph), cutter (.64 mph), splitter (.90 mph) — is not as severe but is still notable. Samardzija was still one of the hardest throwing starters in baseball last season, that’s important to remember, but there was enough of a velocity drop across to board to make you notice.

Samardzija’s pitch selection the last three years is pretty interesting. Most guys who throw five pitches really throw like three pitches and occasionally flash the other two. That’s not the case with Samardzija. He throws all five regularly. Here’s the data, again via Brooks Baseball:

Jeff Samardzija pitch selection

Samardzija threw all of his pitches at least 12.7% of the time last year and didn’t throw one more than 24.7% of the time. He doesn’t throw the splitter to righties and he doesn’t throw the slider to lefties, which makes sense, but otherwise Samardzija uses everything. This isn’t Tanaka throwing that slow curveball four or five times a game, for example.

I am not at all surprised to see Samardzija threw his cutter significantly more often last season. White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is renowned for teaching the cutter and getting his pitchers to emphasis it. Cooper taught Jose Quintana and Gavin Floyd a cutter in recent years and turned their careers around. Samardzija always threw a cutter, but he nearly doubled his usage of the pitch this season from just two years ago.

And perhaps that is part of the problem. The additional cutters — and additional sliders, I’m guessing some of those sliders were cutters that maybe broke more than usual and wound up being classified as sliders — came at the expense of sinkers more than anything, and hey, that might explain the sudden drop in Samardzija’s ground ball rate. Then again, his grounder rate was down across the board, on all his pitches. Again via Brooks Baseball:

Jeff Samardzija ground ball rates

MLB Averages: Four-seam (37.9%), sinker (49.5%), slider (43.9%), cutter (43.0%), splitter (47.8%).

So much for the idea that fewer sinkers led to fewer grounders. Well, no, that is true to a certain extent for Samardzija, but the ground ball inducing ability took a step back with all five of his pitches last season. That is tied to the velocity loss at least somewhat. How much, exactly? I don’t think we can say.

Cutters have a reputation for sapping arm strength — Eno Sarris wrote a great piece about this back in April — and I guess there’s something to the idea of scaling back on Samardzija’s cutter usage going forward. That could lead to increased effectiveness overall and maybe a slight bump in velocity, but I don’t think we can say that with any certainty.

For the sake of completeness, let’s look at the swing-and-miss rates of Samardzija’s various pitches, once again with the help of Brooks Baseball:

Jeff Samardzija whiff rates

MLB Averages: Four-seam (6.9%), sinker (5.4%), slider (15.2%), cutter (9.7%), splitter (14.9%).

Samardzija’s four-seamer is a great swing-and-miss pitch. It was this past season even with that lost velocity. There’s something to be said for having the ability to throw a fastball by a hitter. It’s a great skill to have. Samardzija also gets a better than average whiff rate on his sinker and cutter, but the slider and splitter? Comfortably below average.

Lefties hit Samardzija hard this past season and the swing-and-miss rate on his splitter dropped off big time. I’m guessing those two things are related. Is it possible the reduced effectiveness of the split-finger fastball is tied to the increased cutter usage? Sure. It takes (slightly) different mechanics to throw different pitches, and suddenly throwing more cutters than ever could have affected his other pitches.

One thing we have to keep in mind: Samardzija still has pretty nasty stuff. He still throws very hard despite the velocity loss, he uses five pitches regularly, and he misses bats with his fastball. This isn’t a guy going out there with Freddy Garcia stuff.

Injury History

Samardzija has never been hurt in his pro career. Not even in the minors. No arm injuries, no pulled hamstrings, no stubbed toes, nothing. He’s a big — listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 lbs. — strong guy and an incredible athlete, all of which points to durability. Any pitcher can get hurt at any time, but there’s nothing in Samardzija’s history that will make you cringe.

Furthermore, Samardzija turns 31 in January but he has significantly fewer innings on his arm than the other top free agent starters. He split his time between football and baseball in college, and he spent the 2008-11 seasons working mostly in relief with the Cubs. Buster Only (subs. req’d) had a great little nugget in yesterday’s blog post.

Among the upper-tier starting pitchers in this year’s free-agent class, Samardzija has easily thrown the fewest pitches in the majors, partly because he served as a reliever his first four years with the Cubs. Here’s where he compares with other top free-agent starters in total MLB pitches during the regular season:

Zack Greinke: 33,189 pitches
Johnny Cueto: 22,786
David Price: 22,724
Jordan Zimmermann: 16,793
Jeff Samardzija: 15,906

Greinke is the oldest of the group by several years, hence that big workload. Price and Cueto have been workhorses throughout their careers, so it makes sense they’re essentially tied for second. Zimmerman has thrown more pitches than Samardzija despite missing a season due to Tommy John surgery.

All pitchers have wear and tear on their arms by time they reach their 30th birthday and Samardzija is no exception, but his arm has not endured the workload of other top free agent starters because he split his time between two sports as an amateur and spent significant time as a reliever after first reaching the show. That may mean he’ll hold his stuff into his mid-30s, a little longer than you’d normally expect.

Loose Yankees Ties

Two of the reasons the Yankees have been connected to Samardzija are pitching coach Larry Rothschild and special advisor Jim Hendry. Rothschild was Samardzija’s first pitching coach with the Cubs and Hendry originally drafted, signed, and developed Samardzija when he was Cubs GM. So the Yankees have some firsthand knowledge of him.

That said, Rothschild only spent parts of three seasons with Samardzija, and he wasn’t moved into the rotation until two years after Rothschild left the Cubs. Hendry was fired as Cubs GM the year before Samardzija moved into the rotation. The relationships might not be as close as you’d expect. If nothing else, Rothschild and Hendry should be able to give the Yankees some knowledge about Samardzija as a person. His work ethic, that sort of stuff.

Contract Projections

The White Sox made Samardzija the qualifying offer last week and I expect him to reject it before Friday’s deadline, even after his down year. Samardzija should have no trouble beating that $15.8M guarantee on the open market. I know the pitching class is deep and there are plenty of alternatives, but basically every team besides the Mets is looking for rotation help this winter. The demand is still greater than the supply. Samardzija will get his.

Anyway, in addition to a hefty contract, whoever signs Samardzija will have to forfeit their highest unprotected draft pick thanks to the qualifying offer. For the Yankees, that is their first rounder, tentatively scheduled to be No. 22 overall. Here are some contract projections for Samardzija:

Based on those three, Samardzija is expected to receive roughly $17M a year for four or five years. That’s basically the A.J. Burnett contract (five years, $82.5M), which is fitting because Samardzija and Burnett can both tantalize you with their stuff and frustrate you with their results.

Remember though, it has been seven years since Burnett sign his contract with the Yankees. The market has changed a lot since then. Paying a starter $17M a year now is not the same as doing it back then. Back in 2009 only four pitchers had contracts with an average annual value of $16M+. This past season 18 pitchers had a contract worth that much annually. So yeah.

Wrapping Up

Samardzija’s best attribute is his durability. He’s never been hurt, he’s logged 210+ innings in each of the last three years, his arm is fresh, and he consistently pitches deep into games. Samardzija completed seven innings in 19 of his 32 starts this past season. The Yankees as a team had their starter complete seven innings only 35 times in 2015.

Also, Samardzija’s stuff took a slight step back this past season, though it could be tied to his increased cutter usage. He still flashes brilliance and dominates on occasion. Samardzija had four starts with a 75+ Game Score this season. The Yankees as a team had ten. Lots of innings and occasional brilliance doesn’t equal an ace, but I don’t think anyone is looking at Samardzija as an ace anyway. Four or five years and $17M per year isn’t ace money anymore.


At this point I think Samardzija is what he is. Signing him and expecting his game to take a significant step forward probably isn’t realistic. He might — I think he will, not might — be better than he was this year simply because he figures to have a more competent defense behind him going forward, but I wouldn’t count on ever seeing the 2014 Samardzija again either. He’s talented and durable and the results leave you wanting more.

The Yankees love big power pitchers who don’t walk anyone — I think Samardzija’s improved walk rate the last two years is the result of an athletic pitcher getting locked into his mechanics — and Samardzija fits the bill. He’s also played for a team in a big market with intense media in the Cubs — shouldn’t his Notre Dame football experience count too? — and has an old school give me the damn ball bulldog mentality.

“Back in the day, the game was left in the starter’s hands,” said Samardzija to David Laurila in July 2014. “If the starter pitched well, he was given his 120 pitches. The game was decided by the starting pitchers. It’s different now and I think that’s unfortunate. When you get into tough situations, regardless of your pitch count, a lot of times a reliever is brought in. I understand why – it’s to preserve the game — but you have to keep your relievers’ arms fresh too. I like the idea of the starters deciding what happens in the game.”

I think the Yankees can use rotation help, and I’m sure if you gave the front office a truth serum, they’d say they want to find a way to upgrade the starting staff as well. If nothing else, it would be nice to have one guy you could count on to chew innings every fifth day, right? Asking the bullpen to get 10-12 outs a night is no way to go through a season (again). Samardzija can give you those innings.

Sinking four or five years and $17M annually into Samardzija to be an innings dude who is ideally your second or third best starter might be tough to swallow, but I think it is fair market value. If the Yankees intend to avoid huge money free agent contracts — like the one David Price will get, for example — Samardzija might just be their best option in free agency.

Teixeira, Gregorius, Gardner do not win 2015 Gold Gloves


Earlier tonight, the 2015 Gold Glove Award winners were announced. The three finalists at each position were announced last week and the Yankees had three: Mark Teixeira at first base, Didi Gregorius at shortstop, and Brett Gardner at left field. All of this year’s Gold Glove winners are right here.

None of the three Yankees won a Gold Glove this season. Teixeira lost to Eric Hosmer, Gregorius lost to Alcides Escobar, and Gardner lost to Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes was only in the league half the season! Also, I guess it wasn’t enough that the Royals won the World Series, huh? Gotta hog the Gold Gloves too? Rude.

Anyway, the Yankees have not had a Gold Glove winner since 2012, when Teixeira and Robinson Cano won. Managers and coaches vote for the Gold Gloves in their leagues — they can’t vote for their own players! — and there’s also a statistical component too.

The MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year, and Rookie of the Year awards will be announced last week. The Yankees don’t have any finalists. No awards this year. For shame.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

The GM Meetings continued in Boca Raton today with some more relatively minor hot stove chatter. The biggest story to me is commissioner Rob Manfred saying the league will look to a) extend the netting behind home plate, and b) play Spring Training games in Cuba next year. There are still some hurdles to clear for (b) to happen, but I have to think the Yankees would be a candidate to play those games, right? Short flight from Tampa and they’re one of the most recognizable sports brands in the world. We’ll see.

This is your open thread for the night. The Rangers, Devils, Islanders, and Knicks are all in action. I hear that Kristaps Porzingis guy is quite a player. Anyway, talk about those games or whatever else is on your mind right here.

No Yankees among 2015 major awards finalists

(Mike Skobe/Getty)
(Mike Skobe/Getty)

MLB and the BBWAA announced the three finalists for each of the four major awards Tuesday evening. That is the MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year, and Rookie of the Year. They’ve been announcing three finalists for a few years now as a way to drum up interest.

As expected, no Yankees were among the three finalists for any of the four awards. Their best shot at one of this year’s awards was the Comeback Player of the Year, though Alex Rodriguez lost out to Prince Fielder. So it goes. You can see the three finalists for each award right here.

Now just because no Yankees are among the finalists doesn’t mean no Yankee received awards votes. Mark Teixeira and A-Rod are candidates for down-ballot MVP votes — the ballot runs ten players deep, after all — maybe Brian McCann too. Dellin Betances might steal a few Cy Young votes on the five-man ballot. Heck, maybe he’ll get some MVP votes too.

I would be surprised if Luis Severino received any Rookie of the Year votes. That ballot is only three players deep and I can’t imagine any voter omitted Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor. So Severino is up against a bunch of other dudes for third place. Joe Girardi has appeared on at least one Manager of the Year ballot every season since 2009 and I don’t expect that to stop this year.

Votes for the major awards are cast following the end of the regular season but before the postseason, so the playoffs have no impact on the awards. The four major awards will be announced next week. Rookie of the Year are Monday, Manager of the Year Tuesday, Cy Young Wednesday, and MVP Thursday.

Yankees not interested in Daniel Murphy, seeking “more balance” at second base

(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)
(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

As soon as Daniel Murphy started smashing home runs in the postseason, it was inevitable the former Mets second baseman would be connected to the Yankees this offseason. They have a need at the position and Murphy put on a show, and this is a “what have you done for me lately” business, so the dots would soon be connected.

After arriving at the GM Meetings yesterday, hipster Brian Cashman told reporters the team is not interested in Murphy as a free agent. They want “more balance” at second base, which is a nice way of saying better defense. From Mark Feinsand:

“I think if we’re going to pursue something, we have two offensive-profile players already at that position,” Cashman said, speaking in broad terms when asked about Murphy. “So if we did any changing there, it would be seeking more balance on both sides of the ball.”

“Like anything else with roster management, if there’s opportunity to upgrade and have a more balanced out defense/offense profile, great,” Cashman said. “If not, we feel encouraged by what we saw in September.”

The Yankees have Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley penciled in at second base right now — they’re said to be “leaning toward” using those two next year, but the offseason is young — and they’re basically younger and cheaper versions of Murphy, right? They don’t make contact like Murphy but all three guys are offense first players with suspect defense.

The Mets slapped the qualifying offer on Murphy and I can’t see giving up a first round pick to sign him. Maybe the Yankees would swoop back in later in the offseason after they give up their first rounder for a top free agent — say, Jason Heyward or Zack Greinke — and revisit signing Murphy if his market collapses, but that seems unlikely. Both the signing a top free agent part and Murphy’s market collapsing part.

I’m not a huge believer in Refsnyder but I do think it’s time to give him a chance to sink or swim. He’s going to be 25 in March and his brief cameo in September went well. I wouldn’t call it likely, but it’s possible Refsnyder and Murphy are both ~110 wRC+ hitters next year with shaky glovework. Murphy is a solid player who would make many teams better. Given the cost and their available internal options, I don’t see him as a great fit for the Yankees.

Sherman: Yankees looking to buy low on Jurickson Profar

Profar and Gary Sanchez are AzFL buddies. (Presswire)
Profar and Gary Sanchez are AzFL buddies. (Presswire)

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have asked the Rangers about the availability of infielder Jurickson Profar, who was once arguably the best prospect in baseball. He’s been beset by shoulder injuries the last two years, including a labrum tear that required surgery in February, so the Yankees are looking to buy low.

Profar, 22, is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League, though he is limited to DH duty because he hasn’t been cleared to resume throwing. He’s hitting .239/.321/.435 (95 wRC+) in 12 games but the numbers don’t really matter. Keith Law (subs. req’d) saw Profar recently and said his “bat speed is totally intact” after the shoulder injury.

I answered a question about Profar in last week’s mailbag and the short version of my answer is yes, the Yankees should absolutely look to buy low on him if possible. I just don’t think the Rangers will move him while his trade value is so low. They hung onto him through the injuries, might as well wait to see what happens when his shoulder is at full strength, right?

“We are not looking to trade him,” said Rangers GM Jon Daniels to Sherman. “We held onto him this long. We are pretty optimistic his shoulder is fit. The mindset is to wait and see where he is. We believe he will get back to his value, which was one of the best young players out there.”

Sherman says the Yankees have interest in Profar as a second baseman, which might now be his ultimate long-term position if the shoulder injuries limit his ability to make throws from the left side of the infield. The Yankees are set at shortstop for the time being, but they do have a need at second base, at least until Rob Refsnyder shows he can handle the job.

Missing two full years at such a young age scares me — those are two lost development years Profar can’t get back — but I still love the idea of buying low on Profar. Even if his days at shortstop are over, he’s still incredibly young — younger than Kris Bryant! — and he projects to have big offensive value while adding nifty defense. No mystery why the Yankees inquired, right?