Longtime RAB reader and commenter Dan (better known as “dan” around these parts) has his guest post up over at LoHud. The topic: remembering the correct way to evaluate a trade. Far too often you see fans base their opinions on roster moves based solely on hindsight, which is the absolute wrong way to go about it. You have to consider the context of the trade in terms of what’s given up and what’s received at the time of the deal. Trading Nick Johnson & Juan Rivera – two young & talented but blocked players – for 27 year old Javy Vazquez coming off four straight seasons of 215+ IP and no higher than a 3.68 FIP is a move you make ten times out of ten, no matter how it turned it down the road. Make sure you check it out.
If you want to read more of dan’s stuff, you can check him out at Statistically Speaking or, when he has time, The Poor Man’s Analyst. · (18) ·
I am so jealous of WCBS 880 AM right now. They get to inside the new stadium while everything is being tested. Above, Jorge Posada in the old Yankee Stadium is shown on the screen at the new Yankee Stadium. That’s a nice-looking monitor they have up there. Meanwhile, other images include a shadow creeping across the field, a view from the broadcast booth and the outfield. Opening day can’t come soon enough.
Gonna be a short and quick OT tonight. Here’s a roundup of news:
- Brian Bruney agreed to a one year, $1.25M contract to avoid arbitration.
- All-Star Catcher and Super Captain Jason Varitek returned to the Sawx, inking a two year deal that could be worth up to $10M.
- Eric Hinske latched on with the Pirates, who also signed Paul Maholm to a three year contract extension.
- Fangraphs took a look at the future of The Justin Upton.
- Beyond the Box Score looked at Adam Dunn’s value.
- Starting Monday, there will be baseball … on TV!!!
Here’s your talk about anything thread for the night. Play nice.
While we had a fun debate in this morning’s post on the news that the Yanks may be out of free agent options, Barry Bloom has since corrected himself. The Yankees and every other team, reports the MLB.com scribe, can sign eight Type A or B free agents this year. Since the Yanks have already signed five — Teixeira, Sabathia, Burnett, Marte, Pettitte — they could still sign Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and Ben Sheets or Juan Cruz. Get on the phone, Cash! · (44) ·
According to PeteAbe, the Yankees have signed reliever Brian Bruney to a one-year deal. This locks up all of their arbitration-eligible players. We’ll update one the final figure is in. In avoiding arbitration, the Yankees have signed Melky Cabrera to a $1.4 million deal, Chien-Ming Wang to a $5 million deal, and Xavier Nady to a $6.55 million deal.
Update: It’s for $1.25 million. · (23) ·
Awful Announcing has a look at national baseball games on FOX Saturday and ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. SNB only runs through July, when (I think) ESPN can take a game of its choosing. The only time we see our Yanks is when they’re in Boston on April 26. On the FOX side, they’ll have April 18, when Cleveland is in town, April 25 at Fenway, May 23rd with the Phillies at the Stadium, June 13th with the Mets at home, July 11th in L.A. against Mark Teixeira’s former team, August 1 with the White Sox in town, August 8 with Boston visiting, and August 22 up in Beantown. Honestly, the less the Yanks are on these national broadcasts (considering the putrid commentating tandems), the better. · (81) ·
Update by Joe, 11:52 a.m.: Interesting thought over at MLB Trade Rumors:
10:05am: One reader asks a question I can’t answer: if the quota is three Type A/Bs, how were the Giants able to sign Jeremy Affeldt (B), Bob Howry (A), Randy Johnson (B), Edgar Renteria (A), and Juan Uribe (B)? Does it only apply to Type A/Bs who were offered arbitration? Is the quota three of each type?
Uribe signed a minor league deal, and I’m not sure if that counts against the quota or not. Still, the Affeldt, Howry, Johnson, and Renteria point still stands. Plus, as he mentioned below in the comments, PeteAbe talked to Cashman, who said the Yankees are not at their limit.
Update 10:40 a.m.: After pouring over the CBA and a few of my older columns on this, the conclusion stands that Bloom is wrong. The Yanks can sign a free agent for every ranked free agent they’ve lost — Pudge and Abreu can still be replaced, and I’m pretty sure Mussina can be too — in addition to the number they allotted under the CBA’s quota.
However, it’s unclear what the quota is. Bloom’s analysis about the CBA, below, is still correct mostly correct. His conclusion is not. The relevant part says:
(a) Clubs shall be limited in the number of Type Aand B Play- ers, as defined below, they may subsequently sign to contracts. The number of signings permitted shall be related to the number of Players electing free agency under this Section B. If there are 14 or less such Players, no Club may sign more than one Type Aor B Player. If there are from 15 to 38 such Players, no Club may sign more than two Type Aor B Players. If there are from 39 to 62 such Players, no Club may sign more than three Type A or B Players. If there are more than 62 such Players, the Club quotas shall be increased accordingly. There shall be no restrictions on the number of
unranked Players that a Club may sign to contracts.
Unless the numbers have been “increased accordingly” through some other means, the Yanks may be stuck with three new, non-replacement free agents, but as I noted above, since three of their former free agents did not re-sign, I think the Yanks still could sign more Type A or Type B free agents under the non-increased quota. It’s tough to say if the lost free agents are added to the quota if the number — in this case, 3 — is the same as the quota.
* * *
While Yankee fans dream of Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn patrolling the outfield with Ben Sheets on the mound, those are three pipe dreams that won’t — and, in fact, cannot — come true. The Yankees, you see, have reached their free agent limit.
There is some rather convoluted logic to this conclusion, and Barry Bloom sums it up in that MLB.com piece. I’ll summarize: The CBA says that when there are between 39 to 62 Type A or B free agents, a club may sign three of them, not counting their own players lost to free agency. So when the Yanks re-signed Andy Pettitte and Damaso Marte, they were not penalized. They did, however, land CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, three Type A free agents.
But what if there are more than 62 ranked players, as there were this year? “If there are more than 62 such players, the club quota shall be increased accordingly,” the CBA reads. As Bloom reports, however, no adjustments were made. The Yanks never asked, and the Union and Owners never had to confront the issue. I guess it’s not too late, but that ship has probably sailed.
So all of this convoluted administrative baseball mumbo-jumbo means that there is only one free agent left the Yankees could sign. His name? Bobby Abreu.
This also makes me reevaluate any efforts the Yanks are making to trade Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher. If they cannot sign Dunn as a potential replacement, the team is better served holding on to Nady and Swisher. Both players will be tradeable and in demand when June and July rolls around. What’s the rush anyway?
Marc Hulet at Fangraphs looked at five pitchers the Yanks could/should turn to if they need to fill a rotation spot next year. The first three pitchers are the usual suspects – Hughes, Kennedy & Aceves (though Hulet doesn’t appear to realize that Aceves spent significant time in the Mexican League) – but the last two names are interesting: Phil Coke & Eric Hacker. We know Coke will prepare for the season as a starter, but he’s a two pitch guy with a show-me third pitch. He might be a decent back end option, but his stuff was so much better out of the pen that I can’t help but think he’d be more useful there (especially given the current construction of the team). Hacker finally reached Double-A after being drafted in 2002, and although he was very successful (91.1 IP, 2.87 FIP) he’s still not a guy you’d expect to see on a list like this. Make sure you check it out. · (50) ·
Four months after Yankee Stadium closed, Derek Jeter finally owned up to his cut of the looting. He took the famous Joe DiMaggio sign that used to hang in the runway from the clubhouse to the dugout. Long visible only to non-Yankees on the Stadium tour, the sign will, as New Stadium Insider notes, now be on view only to those who see the insides of Derek’s bedroom. · (26) ·