Open Thread: Banuelos on the bump

(Photo Credit: Kevin Pataky, milb.com)

It’s been almost a week since we were able to watch a real live baseball game (on television or in real life), but it feels more like a year. Evenings without baseball simply suck. Thankfully, the Arizona Fall League Rising Starts Game is on MLB Network tonight, and if that’s not good enough, Yankee farmhand Manny Banuelos is starting the game for the East team. Austin Romine and Brandon Laird will also suit up.

All three were recently ranked as one of the ten best prospects in the farm system by Baseball America, with Banuelos placing as the second best pitcher. Their subscriber only scouting report says that he “has surprising velocity for a little lefthander, sitting at 90-94 mph with his fastball and touching 95. He has excellent fastball control, even with his improved velocity, and projects to have true big league command. His changeup and curveball can be plus pitches, though they often aren’t working at the same time. His changeup is more consistent and has better action, with late fade and sink at its best.” ManBan’s probably only going to thrown an inning, maybe two, but it should still be fun to watch.

The game starts at 9pm ET, and as I said it can be seen on MLBN. Use this thread to talk about it, or whatever you want. There’s a zillion college football games on, plus the Islanders and Nets are also in action. Enjoy.

Link Dump: Jeter, Joba, MLB vs. NFL

Just a few links to tide you over this Saturday afternoon.

Tim Marchman lays out the facts about Derek Jeter. As usual, Marchman hits on the most important points. The takeaway:

You can futz with the math a bit, but even after you apply a standard aging curve, even after you weight 2010 more heavily than 2009 and 2009 more heavily than 2008 and do all other good things backed by actual research rather than one’s vague sense that the man’s bat has slowed and that time has crept upon his face, he projects as a very good player for next year and even beyond, one whose declining offense is offset by his ability to play a lot, to run the bases well, to field a difficult position tolerably and so on.

Nailed it.

Beyond the Boxscore takes a look at Joba Chamberlain using PitchFX. It’s a neat look at how things have changed, but I’m not sure how much the article itself helps — the author fails to take into account Joba’s shoulder injury from 2008. That seems particularly important when evaluating his progression as a pitcher.

William of The Captain’s Blog makes a cameo at The Yankee U to discuss MLB and NFL ratings. He does an excellent job of putting the issue in perspective.

Olney: Yanks first offer to Lee would be a good fit within 72 hours

Via Buster Olney (Insider req’d), the Yankees are expected to make their first offer to Cliff Lee very soon, perhaps within the next 72 hours. Free agency officially opens at 12:01am Sunday morning, so eleven or so hours from now. Anthony McCarron backs Olney’s report up, for what it’s worth.

Unlike CC Sabathia, who the Yanks offered the largest pitching contract in history just as a starting point, the general belief is that they will not pursue Lee as aggressively. That’s not to say they don’t consider him a priority, but they’re just not as desperate as they were two winters ago. They can afford to make an initial offer that other clubs can presumably match, and go from there.

An update on the search for a pitching coach

Chicago White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, right, talks to manager Ozzie Guillen. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

The Yankees have been without a pitching coach for close to two weeks now, which would be a much bigger problem if we were in the middle of the season. But since we’re on the doorstep of the offseason, the Yankees are taking their sweet time replacing Dave Eiland simply because they can afford to. We know that Leo Mazzone is interested in the job and that both Gil Patterson and Mike Harkey are receiving consideration, but beyond that it’s been a relatively quite search.

Not too long ago I put together a speculative list of candidates for the Yanks’ pitching coach position, but like I said, it was just speculation on my part. Let’s get you up to date on what’s going on with some of those candidates and more…

Rick Kranitz

I mentioned Kranitz as a possible candidate last week because of his relationship with Joe Girardi (he was his pitching coach with the Marlins) and strong resume (Baseball America’s Major League Coach of the Year that season), but we scratch his name off the list. He joined the Astros as their minor league pitching coordinator earlier this week. As young players become a bigger part of the game, these roving minor league coordinators are become increasingly more important. Thankfully the Yanks have a great one in Nardi Contreras.

Curt Young

I don’t know too much about pitching coaches at all, but I know that Young was generally considered to be one of the best and brightest in the game. He held the position with the Athletics from 2004-2009, helping them turn a bevy of young prospects into bonafide big league starters. Young turned down the A’s contract offer a week or two ago with the idea of landing more money elsewhere, and presumably he has; Young was named Boston’s new pitching coach this week. He and Terry Francona knew each other from the latter’s time in Oakland back in 2003, which I’m sure was a factor in Young’s decision.

Don Cooper

The current White Sox pitching coach has a great reputation, earning praise for getting Gavin Floyd on track and helping John Danks go from very good to elite, among other accomplishments. The Yankees asked the ChiSox for permission to speak to Cooper about their open pitching coach position, but Jon Heyman says they were told no. So much for that idea, but hey, at least the Yanks are thinking big.

Open Thread: A new deal for D-Ras

Remember Darrell Rasner? How could you forget. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals back in 2006, Rasner went on the make a total 30 starts and 11 relief appearances for the Yankees over a three year span. During the disaster of 2008, he threw 113.1 innings with a 5.40 ERA, striking out only 5.3 batters per nine. It was by far the most big league action of his career.

Rasner sought employment in Japan after that season, so the Yankees helped him out by selling his rights to Rakuten Golden Eagles for a cool million bucks. The move across the Pacific allowed Rasner to make more money than he would have been able to here (his two-year deal with Rakuten guaranteed him $1.2M and could have been worth up to $3.5M), so it was an obvious move for him. In the two years since, he’s pitched to a 5.09 ERA with a 170-81 K/BB ratio in 233.2 innings, and apparently that was good enough for him to keep his job. The great NPB Tracker reports that Rakuten and Rasner just agreed on a new contract, a one-year deal with an option for 2012. No idea what the money is like, but either way it’s good to see him still pitching and making some bucks. Dude’s got a wife and (at least) two kids to take care of.

Anyway, here’s the open thread for the night. The Rangers and Devils are playing each other, and both the Knicks and Nets are in action as well. Chat about that here, or anything else your heart desires.

Ring opts for free agency

Via Anthony McCarron, lefty reliever Royce Ring has elected to become a free agent, which is his right after being outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this week. Ring spent most of the season with Triple-A Scranton and wasn’t able to grab hold of the second lefty reliever’s job in a brief September tryout (2.1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K). Make sure you check out our Organizational Depth Chart to see where the roster presently sits. It’s pretty bleak at the moment.

What Went Wrong: The Return of Javy Vazquez

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

The old adage says that momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, and the Yankees had plenty of momentum when they relied exclusively on their three best starters during their run to the 2009 World Title. That resulted in tremendous workloads for CC Sabathia (266.1 IP), A.J. Burnett (234.1 IP), and Andy Pettitte (225.1 IP), enough that Brian Cashman was concerned about a carry-over effect in 2010. Despite having Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre in tow, he went out an acquired one of the game’s proven workhorses, bringing Javy Vazquez back to New York in a December trade with the Braves.

Vazquez had been treated as the scapegoat for the 2004 ALCS loss ever since being traded to the Diamondbacks as part of a package for Randy Johnson after that season, but life goes on and he continued to pitch. His lone season in Arizona featured a 4.06 FIP in 215.2 IP, but he demanded a trade during the offseason to be closer to his family on the East Coast, his contractual right. The D-Backs shipped Javy to the White Sox for a package built around young centerfielder Chris Young, and he went on to post a 3.80 FIP in his three seasons on Chicago’s south side. After a 2.77 FIP in 219.1 IP for the Braves in 2009 (and a fourth place finish in the Cy Young voting), Vazquez found himself back in the Bronx.

(AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill)

Javy had thrown no fewer than 198 innings every year since 2000 (only one season below 200 IP during that stretch), and only that Randy Johnson guy had struck out more batters in that time. Unlike 2004, when a then-28 year old Javy Vazquez was expected to be a cornerstone in New York’s rotation going forward, the 34-year-old version was expected to do nothing more than soak up innings at the back of the rotation. Two-hundred league average innings was all the team needed out of him, and after the season the two sides would part ways with the Yanks landing two high draft picks as compensation when he signed elsewhere.

To say the 2010 season started inauspiciously for Vazquez would be an understatement. His very first pitch of Spring Training went for a solo homer off the bat of Jimmy Rollins, a sign of things to come. Javy’s first start of the season resulted in eight runs allowed to the Rays in just 5.1 innings, and five days later he was booed off the mound in Yankee Stadium after surrendering four runs in 5.1 innings to the Angels. Vazquez’s first five starts were simply atrocious, a 9.78 ERA with eight homers allowed in just 23 IP. Opponents were wOBA’ing .457 off the Yanks’ fourth starter, and things got so bad that the Yankees had to skip his turn in the rotation in early May just to figure out what they should do.

To his credit, Javy rebounded from the rough start and pitched very well for about two months. He started 11 games (and made one relief appearance) from mid-May through mid-July, pitching to a 2.75 ERA (3.66 FIP) and holding opponents to a measly .249 wOBA. Vazquez was the team’s best starter not named Sabathia during the stretch, and he was giving the Yanks everything they asked of him and then some. Unfortunately it was all downhill from there.

The Angels tagged Vazquez for five runs in five innings on July 21st, and he allowed four or more runs in four of six starts after that stretch of brilliance. Even worse was the obvious physical decline. His fastball, already down two miles an hour from last year, was now regularly sitting in the mid-80’s (right). His breaking balls were flat and lacking depth, leaving the changeup as his only consistent weapon. That didn’t last very long, as Javy was yanked from the rotation for good after allowing four runs in three innings against the lowly Mariners on August 21st. He pitched to a 6.59 ERA the rest of the way, mostly in long-relief though he did make three spot starts. The low point came in his second to last appearance of the season, when he hit three straight Rays to force in a run, turning a blowout into a full-blown laugher. Perhaps all those innings finally caught up to him and/or he was hiding some kind of injury. Doesn’t matter now.

All told, 2010 amounted to the worst season of Vazquez’s career. His 154.2 innings were his fewest since 1999, his 5.32 ERA his worst since 1998, and his 5.56 trailed only Ryan Rowland-Smith (6.55) and Scott Kazmir (5.83) for the worst in baseball among pitchers that threw at least a hundred innings. If he hadn’t been mercifully pulled from the rotation late in the year, he would have led baseball in homeruns allowed. As it stands, the 32 he gave up were the fourth most in the game, and his 1.83 HR/9 was second worst. The Yankees paid him $11.5M and received -0.2 fWAR in return, meaning Javy was no better than some Triple-A fodder toiling away in the minors.

To make things worse, Vazquez pitched his way out of Type-A free agent status, falling down into Type-B range. Not that the team would offer him salary arbitration after such a horrible year, but they wouldn’t even have been able to get those two high draft picks even if they wanted to risk it.

We know the Yanks didn’t give up much for Vazquez thanks to the benefit of hindsight. Melky Cabrera was the worst everyday player in baseball this season (-1.2 fWAR, min. 450 PA) and has already been released. They didn’t even wait until the non-tender deadline. Mike Dunn has a live arm but has already been replaced by Boone Logan. The x-factor is prospect Arodys Vizcaino, who put together a 2.22 FIP in 114 IP before suffering an elbow injury. He’s a top 100 prospect, and if he comes back well from the injury, the Yanks will regret the deal even more.

Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankee brain trust wasn’t asking for much out of Vazquez. They wanted 200 league average innings, which meant an ERA right around 4.20. All they wanted was someone to take the pressure off the three guys at the front of the rotation and young Phil Hughes in the back, someone they could ride hard all year and count on for length each time out. Vazquez didn’t give them that at all, pitching so poorly that he couldn’t even beat out Dustin Moseley for a spot on the postseason roster. Expectations were relatively low, and Javy failed to deliver on even that.